Fantasy Football Daily - Brand New Dynasty Rookie Rankings And Tiers (Post NFL Draft) | Dynasty Points

Episode Date: May 1, 2024

The dynasty landscape has changed after almost 20 hours of live draft coverage. Dynasty Points comes back with New Dynasty Rookie Rankings after the NFL Draft. Getting ready for your startup drafts and already running rookie drafts are Jakob Sanderson and Thomas Tipple, and filling in for Lucas this week is guest Ryan Heath. Fantasy Points is always looking to up its fantasy game, and the NFL Draft is no different. Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us: / elnostrathomas / Jakob Sanderson / RyanJ_Heath https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/ FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - / fantasypts Facebook - / fantasypts Instagram - / fantasy pts #fantasypoints #fantasyfootball #nfl #nfl #fantasyfootball #bestball #dynasty #dfs #nflbetting #fantasyfootballadvice Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When you're flying Emirates business class, sipping your favorite cocktail at our onboard lounge, you'll see that your vacation isn't really over until your flight is over. Fly Emirates, fly better. Hello, I'm Jacob Sanderson, your temporary host. That's my fun fact today, by the way, is that I'm hosting this show. Because Thomas Temple, as you will hear, in limited spurts, has come down with quite nasty sore throat. so you're getting octave down tipple today. He is going to be sitting in the analyst chair,

so he doesn't have to put quite as much pressure on the vocal cords. Lucas is out this week after a heroic performance guiding us through all the post-draft after shows and through Saturday. And our fourth co-host for much of that is Ryan Heath. Ryan Heath steps into the chair today. I'm Jacob. Thomas, your fun fact today, other than that you're sick. So my fun fact today is that. after almost 20 hours of streaming this week,

uh, I still somehow found a way to have the worst savior worthy take in, in the dynasty community. So it's my fun fact today. Ian Ryan, I'm not sure if we told you, but you have to have a fun fact. Oh yeah.

Yeah. I realized this five minutes before the show. So my fun fact was actually going to be, oh, I feel like I'm coming down with a cold, but then I got into the room and saw Thomas. I was like, I can't steal that thunder from him.

I'm just going to sell my, I'm whining. So my fun fact is I recently discovered, like, sparkling water, seltzer water. I don't know why anyone drinks normal water. It's just better. When's the first time someone asks you on sparklet or still? You're trying to act like you drink spalling water before you came out here? All right.

Tom's never going to let me host again. Today, what we're going to do? We are going to debate some of the major questions that I think are going to define your rookie drafts. We're going to talk a little bit about how we're ordering quarterbacks two through four. It feels like everyone you ask has a different take and they even have a different reason for that take. We're going to talk about just how much to downgrade Brock Bowers. If you caught any of our draft stream, these are things we've discussed a little bit already. We're going to dig into who the heck is the wide receiver for and really whether there's anyone worth actually drafting at the 109 or whether we're all trying to trade back.

And we're going to talk a little bit about draft capital. We're going to talk about what do you do when a quarterback you don't like goes in the first. And correspondingly, what do you do in a wide receiver you do like goes in the fourth? Who do you draft first? And once we get through those, we're going to deal with some of the questions that people sent in. All of that and more coming up right away on Dynasty Point. All right. Welcome back.

This is quite weird. In the host chair of this show, I don't think I've ever hosted any show in the fantasy community. But we've already been debating it. a lot prior to, prior to this show in our coverage of the draft, especially the post-a-2 show. We had Brett on. The quarterbacks, who do we draft two, three, and four have received a lot of attention. I've been in a battle in our discord for the last hour, as people are discussing this from all angles. And my honest take is I think it is reasonably defensible to draft them in really any order you want.

But how did you guys come to the conclusion of how you're drafting Daniels, and McCarthy and why. I'll come to the end. But let's start with Thomas because I know we had a little bit of a debate on this over the weekend. Yeah, I think coming into this, I had it decided that I would be lower on whoever New England took because I'm starting to understand that quarterbacks are a product of their environment as much as they are in need of talent. If the environment is so woefully insurmountable that it limits them just for years, You're just sitting on a value play.

I already liked McCarthy a little better as part of the fantasy points cultists. So obviously having him get to the better spot, attempted trade or not, he's still where he is. And I think that the, I've said it forever. I think the only person I can value or really scout quarterbacks is God because the rest of us were just guessing and picking our favorites. So Daniels for me, it's a long-term issue. Like I said, there was a comment on one of our live shows where it said that Daniels looks like someone's going to kill his family if he doesn't jump into a linebacker or a pass rusher, like head first every rush. I think that could be a serious problem. I don't care as much about the age, but it's a longevity thing for him.

And if anybody thinks that I am a running quarterback's get hurt, Savant, you don't know what team I've been following who I've been defending since 2018. So no, it's just how it is for me. So maybe May ends up having this like freakish athletic profile that helps them overcome some stuff. I'm confident enough in McCarthy to be consistent and have upside in the KOC system with one of the top two receivers in the game. So that's kind of how I sorted it out. And then after that, it's just kind of by favor. I have Daniels ahead of May because Daniels rushing could kind of take over and help him produce. I think May is really just kind of stuck.

So that's kind of going to be my point for a little while now. So just to be clear, you're saying just for anyone listening in case maybe that wasn't super clear, you're JJ, then Daniels, then May, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Ryan, what's your take on these guys? Yeah. So I am Daniels, then May, then JJ.

Having Daniels first is just, I would say that that's the take I would like super stand on more so than the other two. Just because the upside of Daniels rushing is so unbelievable in fantasy, I understand we can say, oh, maybe it's a bit concerning. Maybe he's not a long-term starter in the league. I know he bills from clean pockets a lot. A lot of the pressure to sacrate stuff looks really bad for him. He's in very much colossal, like, bust potential territory just off of that stat alone. I understand all of that. But then I look at the Justin Fields career arc where you could get two years of QB1 production out of Fields.

and then trade him away at a profit. Even Trey Lance never saw the field, but just the thought of that rushing upside would allow you to trade him away for basically the same amount a year later. So for Daniels, I just don't think anyone's going to care, like, oh, is he a long-term player in this league

once he puts up a handful of top six weekly finishes, which is very much like what I expect. at least at some point in his rookie season. He, I believe, holds the record for the most single season's scramble yards in NCAA history over Lamar Jackson, I believe, was the only one who was close. So it's just hard for me to get off of him solidly at QB2. And then just going down to May and McCarthy, I do think it matters that the Minnesota Vikings pretty clearly preferred May to McCarthy.

There was more reporting out today that the Vikings did try to trade up with the Patriots for both of their first this year and for their 2025 first, and they were shot down. So I'm just going to lean a little bit into the NFL evaluators there in terms of, am I going to prefer May or McCarthy in my dynasty? leagues. I'm not going to super jump down anyone's throat that has them reversed. I understand McCarthy maybe projects a little better as a rookie, but I don't think it's a big enough gap to where that's going to overcome the talent evaluation for me. Before you get going there,

Jig, I just want to point out in terms of like a quarterback that you know you can like trade in a couple years no matter what i understand why that doesn't work for everybody not everyone is the type of manager that can can can do that that can know knowing when to get out when peripherals are at its best and you can kind of see the other side coming is the greatest tool a dynasty player has in the tool belt not everyone has it and also if you play in a mass amount of leagues right you might want to hold on to that player a little more, or if you play in fewer leagues and you're more concentrated, you may just want to avoid that possibility altogether and play a little bit for safety. Ryan, you and I were talking that it turns out that I rank for safety more than I rank

for pure upside. And I don't know if some of that is just maybe I'm in so many leagues. I don't have it in me to make all those moves when I need to and then I get stuck. So looking, I just want to let people know there is a difference depending on your play style on how these guys can end up being ranked. Sorry. Totally. Tom is leaving it all out on the court tonight. You got to have, you have to have nothing but respect. No, Austin Matthews here.

We play through it. Absolutely playing through it. Okay. I think it full are people have read or watched me talk about these three quarterbacks. I would assume that they're going to expect one of two things. And one is for me to extol all the virtues of Drake May, which I actually plan to do a little bit. Or two is to go on a big diatribe, but it doesn't actually matter because you just have to draft everybody at cost and it's all about trading back.

And I'm not going to do that stuff. I'll say this. If you want like an actual take from Jacob on like, how would I specifically navigate, getting the exposures that I want at which prices, there's an article for that. It's boring. It has a lot of words. I think it's a good read. It's on my substaff.

If we're just talking about which of the quarterbacks we prefer today, I honestly think, and I want to kind of outline what the choice is, because I think it's fascinating. There are all these different elements, right? Tom said it best. He's like, you know, the only person I trust to evaluate quarterbacks is gone. There are all these like known unknowns in terms of what matters and what doesn't matter at quarterback. And it's probably not 100 to zero in any case.

It's probably this big mix of things. And almost every quarterback of these three has something else in their face. right? If you're a person who thinks, you know what, I think the market underrates how much environment has to do with how successful these quarterbacks are, you know, that's, that's going to push you towards McCarthy, if that's your viewpoint. If you're someone who says, you know what, I'm just going to trust the NFL, right? I'm going to go with whoever has the highest draft capital because they know better than me. Well, that's going to push you towards Daniels and May, you know, the opposite of McCarthy. If you're someone who says, I don't know

what the hell is going to happen. So I'll just take the guys who run. You know, we have Daniels is the extreme of that. May is, I think still, like, I think one thing that constantly gets underrated about Drake May is how much he runs. He has 698 rushing yards. That's more. I mean, this is, this is a bad face statistical pull. But for the record, it's more than Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson, and Josh Allen ever had in a college season. So I think his rushing upside is substantially devalued in the fantasy space when people, compare him to Jane Daniels. Or, you know, they look at, okay, who do I just think is good? right just trying to evaluate the talent i don't even think that that's clear right because it depends on

what you evaluate jaden daniels are the best seasons guys that's in dispute it also happened when he was much older than these guys so how much do you care about peak season versus age how much do you care about their environment in college right if we're going to say these guys are a consequence of their environment in the nfell do we care that you know drake may is throwing to a day three receiver and nobody else and jaden danis is throwing a two first round receipt do we care that, you know, do we care about the fact that J.G. McCarthy never threw. There's all these different things, which is why I ultimately think the answer is to kind of figure it out with cost. But if I could come to one take on this, it's that I think my personal opinion, how I weigh up

these factors, I'm in the camp of environment matters a lot, at the very least for Florida. I totally agree with Tom on that. I think J.G. McCarthy is going to succeed. I do, right? I think it would be ideologically inconsistent for me to say, I don't really think Purdy's all that good. I don't really think two is all that good, but they're going to achieve a baseline level of success in these offenses and not apply the same thing to J.G. McCarthy. The question is those guys have a place in our dynasty landscape, which is usually around the two, three turn, give or take. That tends to be where they top out. I don't think that's necessarily McCarthy's ceiling. I think he could achieve more than that. But I would say his chance of being more than that,

probably similar to his chance of straight busting. So if we just assume that he's going to live in that zone, it comes down to, well, what do we think of these other guys? And for me, I look at May and he just checks my boxes in terms of a guy who was able to put up a fish and offense in an adverse environment in college, who has the rushing profile upside, who's aggressive and is a playmaker, and who's able to have the elite arm strength that not just matters, from fantasy perspective, but from in my view, a real life perspective of who can be a true stealing, changing quarterback for a franchise, I just see in the number of scenarios where May hits, the environment's not going to kill him. And he's going to be that top half first round

startup pick guy, which is why I lean towards him. And I would say the same for Daniels. And in the scenarios where the environment is the reason why they die, to me, that's the difference between, well, if May was on the Vikings, he could have been a round three startup pick, he's on the Patriots so he washes out. But if you're actually that good, if you're above this level, if you're a Herbert, if you're a Burrow, if you're a Josh Allen, then I think you can transcend. That's what I believe. And so for me, May is a guy that conviction and his ability to do that.

Daniels, I think if he's that guy, that's where the upside is. I'm just so much less confident that he's that guy. So I end up with May and then I end up with Daniels and then I end up with McCarthy. my one big point of contention with kind of the market is I guess with Ryan really is I've seen a lot of people say like hey you know you how confident are you in Drake May you shouldn't be so confident in Drake May you should have McCarthy above him because of the environment I disagree but I think that's reasonable I respect what what Tom is doing saying you know what I'm going to take McCarthy over both of these I don't really get how we've decided that like May is in the conversation with McCarthy but Daniel is immune to that conversation as like a community as an ADP, I just don't think the upside is that different between May and Daniels. And I don't think the landing spot is that different. Like, is one 28 year old Terry McLaurin going to be the reason why one fails and one succeeds? Like, I just think both their landing spots are kind of crummy. So that's my contribution to the

discourse. And Ryan, like, why do you see it is so different in terms of the upside case? Sure. So first, before I answer that, I do want to build off another point you had, just about environment in general. And it is true that, quarterbacks more than any other position that we draft in fantasy create their own environment to some extent. So C.J. Stroud, you see come in, it wasn't really thought of as a great landing spot last year, has an incredible rookie season. Suddenly, Stefan Diggs, the at least top five diva wide receiver, is willing to go to Houston and play with him, assumingly, wouldn't have traded for him. Right. So I definitely get that. To some extent, yeah, we are.

are looking at the environment at one point in time, but that can very easily become completely irrelevant information based on how they perform and who they are as a talent. So totally would concede that or would, yeah, would want to emphasize that. And then I completely forgot your question. Is it why I have, it's why I have May separate from Daniels and say that that's a conversation, right? So, I mean, I wouldn't say that they're super separate. So I do have them ranked Daniels, May, McCarthy. They are all in the same tier for me. So, I mean, I'd love to be drafting 106 and taking whoever's there. That's totally fine with me. As for why I have that more of that more confident lean toward Daniels, I just think that the rushing in terms of degrees is much

I would say Daniels has the potential to be like a top three rushing quarterback in the league. May is more like top eight. And that's a meaningful difference to me. I understand if it's not to you or if you think that maybe that's a little bit overconfident of an evaluation just based off of what they did in college. But that would be the reason. It would be Lamar Jackson, but Drake May could be Josh Allen. as rushers.

I'm not like if we're, I'm saying like I think, you know, like I think Daniel's going to run for a whole lot more yards than men. I think May is going to run for more touchdown. And I think that that could even out. That's that that would be my only feeling.

It's like I, you know, is Lamar Jackson a more skilled rushing quarterback than Josh Allen? Like clear. But like I'm not, I don't think he actually produces that many more fantasy points on the ground when Josh Allen's just killing him with touchdowns because because of the size back with Lamar.

and that's my only pushback on like if you're asking me who's going to have more rushing fantasy points I would still take Daniels I just think that the difference is a little bit overstated but let's let's talk about well I will say what like before I know we've spent like almost 50 minutes on this but I think it's important to note and I've said it a couple of times but I think it fits here that these rushing quarterbacks from college translate the rushing games differently for pretty much each and every one of them. Lamar is a different rusher than Hertz.

Hertz is a different rusher than Allen. Allen is a different rush than so on. And so Kyler is different than Fields. And Fields does it differently. So I'm interested to see how these rushing games go because McCarthy can do the read option offense. He is athletic enough to do it. He feels more like a Russell Wilson type scrambler

where you say May is more. maybe like a Josh Allen. I think he could end up more like a Patrick Mahomes who gets a lot of first downs, a three, 400 yard season type thing with six to eight touchdowns, I think is super reasonable. And I think you're right. Daniels could be, you know, 800 to a thousand yards as a rusher as well. I'm just curious to see how all of these scrambling quarterbacks translate their rushing game because I find that you can't just copy and paste the same way.

like Richardson, we only saw a handful of games, but his rushing style was already different from what we saw in Indy than what we saw in Florida. So I think it's important to note that what we might hope for, right, may not be exactly what we get. Another reason why I'm kind of just a little bit more into McCarthy. Yeah, it makes sense for sure. The next big guy, and it's another one that I know I disagree on

with Tom or at least have certainly in the past, And the Brock Bowers' landing spot is going to get a lot of buzz. And we've seen wide-ranging opinions across the industry. And I'm going to disagree with this take, but I don't bring it up to throw it under the bus. I bring it up to patent indication of like the disparate views across the industry. JJ Zacharyston, who I consider to be, frankly, the best dynasty analyst in the space. Brock Bowers ranked 11 in super, right? Another former guest of the show, Guy I do Dynasty podcasting with frequently as Brock Bowers at 6, and that's Packering.

I would say a lot of people that are doing Dynasty Riqui drafts, probably two of the most subscribed two sources for Dinosurkey data. That's a pretty big spread difference. It's, you know, the top of one tier versus another tier down and the bottom of it. You know, we've talked about it. I have them at 6. I think we have different spreads in terms of where Ryan has them or Tom has them. We're a little bit all over the map. And again, it comes down to multiple things.

It's how much do you care about the landing spot? It's how much do you care about the tight-end position, I guess? And so where Brock Bowers fits in this? Because I've seen them go as far down the list as 1-9 in my drafts already, and I've seen them go as high as 1-4. How are you guys handling Brock Bowers in particular post this Las Vegas Raiders bummer? Or does anyone want to make the case for why the Raiders are actually a dream landing spot? I can do a little bit of both.

I have them right behind Adunze right now at 8. But I am like flipping back and forth like tight end premium at seven, not it's eight. I think I like part of what JJ said. I think it's a little extreme. But I like part of what he said in that Sam LaPorteur just had one of the greatest rookie tight end seasons you could ask for. I have been screaming about this for a month, probably too, and that yet he's still being devalued.

So what does Brock Bowers actually have to do to hit that Kyle Pitts level in sanity because Kyle Pitts might have ruined it for everybody. I don't know. So I think that's definitely a part of it. Um, I do think the lending spot does suck, but they run the ball so much. Play action might actually be good for him if I'm going to make a case. Gardner Minchu can definitely distribute the ball with crossers right in the middle of the field. He, Gardner Minchoo is good enough to support fantasy viable assets. So I think he, you know, you can't if we get aOC, we're going to be crying and having that bit where it's like 2025 and we're praying for Brock Bowers upside to hit. But I actually don't terribly mind Minchu giving Bowers like

115 targets if we can hope for that. I think it salvages it, but I think kind of no matter what the community is setting itself up to be disappointed with him. And I actually kind of think he's, Leif's just one, didn't they? Yeah, it's, uh, Jacob's muted, but the Leafs definitely definitely just scored in overtime. I haven't looked. So go leaves go. Matthew Nyes, wins it for the buds. That's what a left. To finish my point, only have so much win, Jacob, God. To finish my point, I think no matter what the fantasy community is set up to be disappointed in Brock Bowers,

but I'll say he's appropriately priced now in his startup prices, as the Titan three or four, depending on how you want to look at it. I think that's, I think he's a price. I'm not a good tight end for. So this, this, uh, let's, we, it's perfect. We got, we got Tom as the middleman. We got, oh yeah, Ryan's way low. I forgot. And I'm, I'm coming in as the high guy.

So let's, let's get, uh, let's get Ryan in here. Sure. Um, so, I mean, just to say first, I, like, I also have like the utmost respect for J.J. Zacharison as a dynasty analyst also think he's the best in the space. I was very excited when I saw his bowers ranking because I was like, yes, thank God. I'm not going to be like the lowest. like the lowest person on Brock Bowers. Like I might actually get some in some of my rookie graphs now. So I was very excited to see that.

As far as kind of my take on the whole, on the landing spot, I, like Tom says, oh, like maybe we can hope for 115 targets. I won't lie, I haven't sat down and done. I haven't sat down and projected out this Raiders past catching core yet. That sounds really optimistic to me for a rookie season target number for Brock Bowers. I think at least to some extent he will be splitting routes with mayor at the very least early in the season. If not throughout, Jacob had an amazing rant about Getzi and the just illogical decisions

that he is sure to make in this spot. So I recognize the talent of bowers, and that does matter. So, like, I have bowers clearly in my top. I have him ranked eighth among rookies. I do, I do think you should try to get some of him if you're there. I'm not on my take from three days ago of, of like, I'm just always trading the 108. I think it's fine to take Bowers. I do think you almost maybe...

You have a tier below McCarthy and a Dunezee, right? Correct, yes. I have him in a... I have him in a tier below McCarthy and O'Dunesay. So my... Yeah, so my tiers go 1-1-1-2, 1-3 to 1-7, and then I have Bowers at 1-8. Okay, my take for Bowers, first of all, one thing,

and this applies to Dunesay, you know, a lot of the discussion around him and is he J-S-N and all that stuff. I don't think that we give the market enough credit for understanding context. I think that we do this thing in the fantasy community pretty often where we're like, this guy's situation is bad for X. Maybe it's quarterback, maybe it's coordinator, maybe it's target competition and been a reason. And then we're like, and because of that, his value is going to go down.

And like, I just think if something is bad or good, you know, we do the same thing, the opposite with other in the other way sometimes we'll be like once this happens this guy's value is going to go up or like you know he's in this great situation so you know his value's going to go up i don't think that we're that stupid i think that we i think that if something is that obvious that everyone agrees on right i think it's one thing if you have a take like if someone comes in and they're like actually i think the viking's landing spot's overrated right that's not getting baked in but to me like if you're coming in saying like j jay mccarthy is going to go up later because the the Vikings are good or you're saying like Brock Bowers going to go down later because the Raiders are

bad. It's like I think we all know that the Raiders are bad and the Vikings are good. So I think that's why they're valued where they are in the first place. Like you bring up Kyle Pitts and like Kyle Pitts has done a pretty impressive job of holding value in the space while in a shitty environment. Right. And I understand he's dropped from where he was valued. But especially if you look at where he's been compared to where Bowers is valued now, like he's never really plummet. as far as you'd think based purely on his production in which he's basically been on playable in the last two years and he still managed to maintain himself in the top five tight ends and now that he's got Kirk cousins it's like his value is up like it's never elaps he's like solidly back in the top five

tight ends so i think you know it's like the jsn discussion too where it's like yeah i think that him being stuck in a target squeeze like clearly baked in him being super inefficient was not baked So that's why I think his value went down. We don't even know how good JSN is yet. We have no idea. It's very possible that if DK Metcalf went down for the season in week three, either JSN would have been awesome, he would have been unlocked, and now he'd be wide receiver 9.

It's also possible that he would have been the exact same disappointment. And now we don't have an excuse because there was no DK Metcalf blocking him, and he's currently a dynasty wide receiver 58. Like we just don't know. So with Bowers, I think that there's some level of value benefit to being stuck in a situation that people already have a pre-ordained excuse about. I think ultimately it just comes down for his value, how does he look on the field? If he is looking good on the field and his targets per out run is high and his yards per out run is reasonably high,

and everybody thinks that he just got screwed by Luke Getzky and Gardner Minshu, like I don't think his value is going to go down. I think the community is showing like, look at Garrett Wilson, right? here Wilson hasn't done shit frankly production-wise in terms of box score wise but everybody has eyes and they look at the fancy stats and they're like yeah I watch the games this guy looks pretty fucking sick to me and he's managed to maintain his value right I think that that's where we're at with ours so I think he has interim value insulation and then long-term production in the sense of like you know we just talk about the Sam LaPorta thing we're only going to read it all sound board I think but like which tight end is going to get me 20 points per game like I don't know a single tight end And, right? Yeah. Like, it's peak Travis. Like, that's, that's the mark. So people are saying, like, what more could Sam Laporte have done? It's like, that's what more Sam Laporte have done. Is it a high bar? Yeah. But if I'm asking who's going to clear it, for me, it's Bowers. Like, that's the guy who has the best production profile of all time, who's been able to command targets consistently down the field, who led the entire country in Yak for three consecutive years. Like, to me, such an outsized level of ceiling. And maybe it doesn't translate. But where, like, I just see him as this fuel. cheat code possibility that is like a little bit more immune to this. Yeah, there's lots of good young tight ends now. Like, I'm willing to set the bar high enough for him where, yeah, if Brock Powers becomes

Dalton Kincaid, I legitimately do consider that a failure. You know, like I don't mean that he's like a career as a failure. He's a failure of a human. But like the Brock Powers thesis is he's something that we've never seen before or have only seen before once with Pete Travis Kelsey. And, you know, we'll see. have concerns about route chair and all that stuff. But like, to me, these are like concerns about redraft league.

Like, if Brock, if Brock Bowers shows up and he's a god among men, then, well, first of all, like, Michael Mayer's probably going to have to take a seat, you know, somewhere along the line. And also, right? Like, and also it's just like the people can, people can get it. So we'll see. I think you're taking a shot on an exemplary talent. And so to me, the reason to not be in on Bowers, at its current price, especially with it already dropping, having gotten this Raiders landing spot,

is tight ends voodoo, and I don't feel confident scouting. And that's a fair take. I don't think it's the Raiders. I will just add, so I'm rediscovering what my point was from before. So I will add, if you're in like a startup right now, or if somehow you're in position to select him in a rookie draft, and your team, like your plan for this year, you know, you know, your team is not competing, I think that's a great pick. Because for all the reasons, Jacob said, there's is like the built-in excuse,

the value installation. But also, he, he's not going to put a lot of potential points on your bench. That's going to help your draft position. He's like great for a productive struggle, right? So I see a lot of reasons and a lot of scenarios where Bowers is a very attractive pick. I don't want to sound like I'm completely one-sided here and that I want zero percent exposed. But yeah, that would be my sort of angle.

I'll say that he is set up to have David and Joku like begging and pleading. Like, please can we use his athleticism? Please, when do we get to see it? Right. There is that risk with him right now, like there is with every tight end. That we are begging and hope because I've said it. You need to have a tight end that's good enough. You need to have a tight end that is in the right system,

the right environment around them. This team's pace of play, and I am working on a new coach index. It's really going to help sift through some of this stuff. Their pace of play might just be dreadful for the next two years. I think that there's as equal a chance that you will be able to acquire Brock Bowers for cheaper than what you have to acquire him right now, halfway through next year or the start of next year.

And if I'm playing those odds, that's the odds I'm probably more often than not going to, going to play, especially as a portfolio player. Hopefully that makes sense. Totally. Let's talk about one more thing here before we get into questions. We're going a little late. We'll talk about at least one more.

Maybe touch on one really fast. What are we doing at the wide receiver? I don't know if we all, I think, I think that we are a weird, I'm going to, I'm going to voice the silent opposition because the, the typical fantasy wide receiver four in most of your rookie drafts is going to be Xavier Worthy. And the especially interesting thing about Worthy is that he is the one guy who is occasionally exempt from the jumble, right? There are some people out there who have Worthy in their top eight. There are some people who have worthy kind of in his own floating tier where he's, He's not buying the eight, but he's clearly the best of the ninth. I'll put it this way.

If anyone is trading up to the 109 in your rookie drafts and the top eight went how they normally go, I'm willing to bet that player is a Xavier Worthy, right? Not everybody has him ranked 19, but the people who have him ranked 199 tend to be the most passionate. People aren't trading up and mortgaging their future for Brian Thomas at the 109 for the most part.

So none of us have Xavier Worthy. Tom has him, wide receiver 76 in the class. So why don't you go first? And how come the consensus is wrong about Xavier Worth? Yeah, set me up for failure there. Don't worry, I'll set myself up for failure. You don't need to help me here. No, so a lot of this is kind of vibe-based.

I will not lie. I think he's my wide receiver five or six now. If I were to go and pull it up, you'd think I would have it pulled up, but I am not so much in my element this evening. He is my wide receiver six. I do have Brian Thomas Jr. ahead of him. No real reason right now why it is kind of a coin flip for me. And I'll say this piggybacks a little bit off of what Scott says,

even though he has him the highest out of anyone that I know right now. The Chiefs just kind of suck at drafting skill position players. Like they just have kind of sucked. They've gotten lucky a little bit with Pacheco in the seventh round. They scored with Kelsey. They scored with Tyreek. None of those guys were like elite prospects. Almost every single other player they have brought in at the skill positions has been dreadful.

Sky Moore, they traded for Tony, Hardman, MVS, like the list goes on and on and on. So it would be disingenuous for me to say that that isn't in the back of my mind. I do think Rice is really good. I don't know if Rice is playing for the mean machine. or not to start the year. But when he comes back, it can be a jumbled mess that there is Marquis Brown, who is a legit target earner. And Patrick Mahomes' offense outside of Tyree Kill has just kind of been annoying, like in

the post-Tyree Kill era. So there's just a lot of stink that comes with Worthy for me. And when it comes to that, like, I would hear arguments as to why Brian Thomas Jr. shouldn't be ahead of him. Okay, I'll hear that. but I prefer the two running backs, right? I prefer Benton and Brooks. I prefer Knicks.

I prefer Ladd-McConkie and then the usual suspects before that. I have a very hard time getting worthy any higher. I know I'm going to get cooked for it. I understand he has a pretty good early analytical profile. I know who his quarterback is. Hashtag Chiefs. I get it. There's just so many other players that I like ahead of him for different reasons,

that I'm probably just going to let somebody else fall on the sword for me. And if I'm wrong, I will cry myself to sleep. But I'm okay being wrong here. And I'm okay having it. It was my wide receiver six. And he is my rookie player 14 overall. So you can roast me at Elinelstra Thomas everywhere. I'll be waiting.

All right. Yeah. Before I start the roast, I will find one point of agreement there with the coughing guy, which is in terms of the chief. Chiefs being bad at scouting skill players. There might be something to the idea that just in terms of what they prioritize as an organization is guys that Andy Reid thinks he can scheme touches and gets really excited

about that. So that brings like the me Cole Hardman sort of archetype to mind. Darwin Thompson. Yeah. I can definitely, I definitely, I vibrate with that thought a little bit. Like I see where that's coming from. And but look, I would say with worthy, the surface level analytical profile is excellent. He was very productive very early on.

I don't care about stats like Dominator, but I'm sure he looks great in dominating, right? So. And that's fine. A lot of that production was kind of on like the on screens, just a making. mouse routes type of stuff. But on the other hand, Andy Reid is the master of getting production off the Mickey Mouse routes. That was a lot of Rishi Rice's production as a rookie.

Now, to be fair, Rice was also excellent when they were splitting him out wide. If you filter for throws 10 plus yards down the field, Rice was still awesome in yards per outrun compared to most of his years. top 15, I believe. So I do think Rice can do quote unquote real wide receiver stuff. And the worthy pick honestly makes me more confident that the chiefs agree with that. Because my thought on, my guess on how this is going to shake out is that Rice gets kicked outside a little bit more, is kind of used as a more traditional receiver while maybe Worthy is at least in their heads right now. maybe worthy is more of like the close to the line of scrimmage weapon getting the scheme touches.

And that's fine. And that can work in fantasy. We just saw it mostly work last year for Rice. So I get why people have him high. I get the allure. I for me, the reason that he's my rookie wide receiver five and why I have Brooks and Nicks and McConkey over him is I just running. back and quarterback are, first of all, more premium positions. So for running back, at least if it's a running back that can be a Scott Barrett-esque bell cow who can play on all three downs, catch passes. We have like four of those guys in the league right now. And if there's even a 20% chance of Jonathan Brooks doing that, then I'm taking him overworthy, absolutely no questions asked. Same with Knicks. We got into it a lot.

during our draft coverage, but I just view quarterback as the most premium position. I'm always going to prioritize a quarterback with top 12 draft capital over a wide receiver drafted towards the end of the first pretty much no matter what, unless I'm incredibly, incredibly confident in the profile, which for worthy I'm not. There's just enough holes here in terms of can he, or I should say enough questions in terms of can he run like normal wide receiver types of routes at the NFL level against NFL level corners that I am just happy to take Knicks and Brooks ahead of him and be content in the fact that I may not get very much because yeah if you're if you're ranking worthy below the 109 there's a good chance you're gonna not get any of him if you're not willing to take him at the 109 or higher. So I'll give, you know, I have worthy, full disclosure, I'm worthy as my wide receiver six pre-draft, which is why, you know, and I've now moved him up actually to the wide receiver five. But unfortunately, you know, there's no worthy wide receiver four truther on the show.

So I'm going to do the best I can to try and give that perspective some light, right? Maybe I'm not going to do the world's best cosplay. But the one thing, you know, to note is if you're a worthy bull that I think is valid, and that keeps me up at night when I think about how does my take blow up in my face is, you know, we're coming off of what we do so often in the fantasy committee is like one thing hits or misses and then we relearn all these different lessons, right, about whatever just happened. And we're coming off of a year in which, you know, I think we're kind of past the point now of being like binary and saying like, this is a film guy or this is an analytics guy.

Like there's so many different types of ways that we can evaluate players through film or through numbers. But definitely what last year was a bad year for was like sort by breakout age, sort by college receiving share press in, right? We saw some of the profiles that hit, you know, were either like just just legitimately bad analytical profiles like a Rishi Rice or profiles like a Pukunakua or a Jada. read that really required some like under the hood number massaging right and on the contrary like probably the biggest the highest profile flop is quentin johnston who's really the opposite of this where it's like the more you zoom out the better the profile looks um because we have the first year

breakout um we hit a lot of the key thresholds and the more you zoom in the more you're like i don't know if i love the fact that we plateaued right we never actually get that high of a peak in the numbers. We're just kind of hitting the bare minimum thresholds. We're really reliant on contested catch opportunities, but we're actually not converting a lot of those invested cash opportunities, like some of those more secondary descriptive concerns. And, you know, there's two players that could possibly look less alike than Worthy and Quentin Johnston. But I have some of the same concerns about Worthy entering this draft that I had about Johnston last year, which was, I like what I see when I look at the chart. I don't.

don't feel very comfortable translating. The biggest red flag for me with worthy is two of them. First of all, outside of his freshman year, not an efficienter. His profile is largely based on just raw volume earning, like dragging them over the top. But his yards per target in his sophomore and junior year are really quite poor. And his yards per route run is just average. Like his peak yards per run, 2.68 is a freshman, especially as a freshman, that's incredible. Falls off a cliff after that, largely due to post-target efficient.

And then you look at, okay, how. is he compiling this target share, which is really what his profile is largely based off of. And, you know, in his junior year, right, this most recent year, as only 24 of his 79 total targets coming in the intermediate areas, 10 to 19 yards. The highest proportion of his targets are sub 10 yards, and then basically about equal to his intermediate targets is 20 plus. This is kind of the Zay Flowers usage profile, where it's like the ADOT is kind of normal, but you're not actually getting any middle of field targets. You're just getting a bunch of screens and a bunch of deep shots.

And so when you just look at AdD, it's like, yeah, normal ADOT. But like you actually watch the games and it's kind of gadgety. The difference was, you know, you look at stuff like reception, like Zayflower scored far better as a downfield separator. And then Worthy, the one year, and Brian mentioned this in the chat, the year that Worthy really played a deep role was as a year two. and that was by far his most inefficient season. So we're drafting this guy and it's like he doesn't have a lot of play strength, right?

Tiny little man. Doesn't get a lot of usage over the intermediate film. That just makes sense. So you look at him, it's like we got a small, fast guy. He's going to get the gadget stuff. That's just like obvious to me. The question is, can he also get the deep? Because you can't only gadget your way to being a wide receiver.

Right. And I'm just a little bit less confident in that aspect of the profile. It's why I lean to other guys. the difference is last year with Quentin Johnston, I could just point and say like, hey, two other good wide receivers right there. I'm a lot less confident in Ladd McConkey and Brian Thomas than I was in Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison.

I'll caution that. I'll say this, using Brett's film grade and their film versus analytics series, he did say, like, were these not a very good deep ball tracker, which is concerning for a supposed deep ball threat? And the too high safety with him being the size that he is, could also be a problem if there's anyone near him.

So those were two things that I noticed. And he also apparently going by Brett's grades. And Brett has him ranked, I think, his wide receiver 10. Like he's just so out on him. And I obviously respect Brett Whitefield's film grading for wide receivers. His hit rate is better than most. It's his issue with playing beyond contact and how his hands tend to loosen up on them. So I think you're right. I think there is more red flags. And as for Gadgety plays,

I mean, we, I hate that I just said. I mean, I just ranted about this on Twitter. But if it's just gadget and maybe deep ball, it sounds a lot like Jameson Williams to me. So it, that's what I fear is his most likely range of outcomes. Is a better and best ball, Jameson Williams? Why can't we get this guy the ball more type type guy? I want to make an affirmative case for Ladd McConkey. because we talk about Worthy. And specifically, I want to make an affirmative case for Ladd-McConkie's ceiling. Like, I think there are very, very clear flashing red light risks to Ladd-McConkie's floor, namely, once you start saying, well, if you break it down per route, you're already halfway to Skymoor syndrome.

So, like, I just want to acknowledge that off the top, that, like, the entirety of the Ladd-McConkey thesis, is based on a massive, massive, massive caveat that may prove to be, right? When you, the one thing I'll say is there's no obvious reason why he's only running a small amount of route, right? This isn't like a McCull-Hardman situation where it's like, oh, he's getting all these gadgety touches. And so obviously his per route stuff, like he's only going to be on the field for that. So I don't think there's like a real life reason where people look at Matt Ladd-McConkie

and they're like, he's just a situational gadget player. That's not really his profile. The reasons why his route totals are so low is a mix of he was injured a lot. Georgia is just kind of funky. They always run like all these multiple tight-end sets. And so the wide receivers rotate. And then they're just, they just curb-stomped teams every single Saturday.

And so most of their starters don't play the last 20 minutes. Yeah. So there's a lot of weird confounding reasons. But the fact remains, right? You look at nothing else, just a player where you're based off a smaller subset of routes, better chance that you're only being asked to do what you do best. And so you're always going to look better in a reduced volume sample.

But if we're just looking at the ceiling case, you know, I think people see Ladd McConkey, and he has kind of a goofy name, and he's a white guy, and he's like, doesn't have these astounding stats. And the immediate thought is like, ah, you know, high floor, low ceiling, lunch pale kind kind of guy. I think, Wes Welker. Yeah. And I think like, A, that's not really actually how he plays.

and B, I just don't think people are very good at, like, describing what a ceiling means. Like, why is it that, like, a big, limited player who, like, runs for jump balls is, like, inherently a higher ceiling bet than, like, a guy who earns a lot of targets? Because, like, you know, who has a high fucking ceiling? Keenan Allen, right? Like, you know how to, like, you know, like, Almond Ross St. Brown right now is, and, you know, you can, you can argue, it's like, ah, as Alman Ross St. Brown reached it, well, if he's reached the ceiling, he reached it as, like, the wide receiver

for overall in Dynasty. So if we're talking about Ladd McConkey's current ADP, pretty high, pretty high archetype on that. I have Deonti Johnson actually has my like, more than likely range of outcomes for him, a guy that gives you a single top 12 wide receiver season, maybe two. And then it's kind of like a 15 to 18 guy outside of that. That's kind of what I have for him. And I'm happy with that. Like, I'm happy with that if I draft him at 1-9. I mean, that's the median, right?

maybe it's in a little high median, but like it's, you know, so I'm not saying he's going to be keen an Allen or anything like that. I'm just saying like what we do have with Madagki is we have a profile that on a limited sample runs a shit ton of targets and is very efficient on them. And he does it most concentrated to the intermediaries of the field, which is really what I want to see in terms of what translates from college of the pros. It's winning on NFL routes. And, you know, that's McCocky.

Can he do it on way more routes? I don't know. Landing spot. I really just, I don't think the landing spot should be the defining factor, but like, and I think I convinced Ryan on this a little bit, but like, I think the charge is just clearly a better landing spot than the chiefs. Like at the absolute ceiling, sure, I'll take the chief. But like Justin Herbert as a fantasy supporting quarterback outside of the Harbos shenannery is really not that different than Patrick Mahomes, the fantasy supporting quarterback. Like we've seen Justin Herbert bring out like Mike Williams from a complete nothing to a borderline wide receiver one. we've seen him force feed keen and alan like over 20 points per game like he can deliver for

fantasy dudes if he's asked to drop back and then mccoggy's just got no route obstacles like he's out there with quentin johnston and josh palmer and darius davis and a couple of day three picks like if he's any good we're running as many routes as he can possibly earn and earning as many targets on those whereas worthy he's got like rice he's the size he's got calcise he's got brown his professional wide receiver um you know so i just see there it's like okay like I got a guy who, based on this assumption, if he can translate it to full routes, can just be a 25% target share guy and run all the routes for the chargers. I'm like, yeah, that's good enough ceiling for me.

Like, that sounds pretty sick. So I'm very in on lad. And I think that people should not, should be unafraid to talk about lad as a high ceiling. Yeah, I have a couple points to spin off of that. So the first is in terms, what you said about how we conceive of player's ceilings. I do think our understanding of that is kind of outdated. So as you say, oh, the giant contested catch guy that's going to run down the field, I think that's like A.J. Green and Julio Jones and all those guys in our, like,

in the back of our consciousness, what, like, what we think of, oh, who are like the best wide receivers that like we, that us as a generation have ever watched play. we think back to those guys, I guess. But the league has changed a ton since those guys were at their peaks. Slot receivers can't, and not just slot receivers, but like mostly slot receivers, there are clear advantages to running a lot of your routes out of the slot in a league where the two-high safety rate is as high as it is right now. That is legitimately like a big point.

I know like in season we were always tracking like okay when is a Monrois St. Brown facing like a too high heavy defense. Are they going to play as much too high as they usually do? Because the like guys like him are just so much more efficient against those types of looks. And I do think Ladd could fit into that and that that could be great for fantasy. Sort of the other point. And I should say first that I have Ladd, I think like around. where Jacob does. He's my wide receiver for my 11th rookie. Macro thoughts are going to be similar. But I will say when I am like auditing my thoughts

and my takes on a player, so backing up, everybody coming into this offseason, like the common question was, oh, well, who's this year's Fukunakua? And I'm sick of hearing it. I'm sick of talking about it. Whatever, that's a thing. I think the good question to ask that is sort of the reverse of that is how is Puka Nakua affecting how I am looking at this class right now and do I need to be aware of that? And I think with Puka, like the defining trait of his profile, if you were going to hindsight look back at Puka and say, how did I miss him? It is the yards per route run. It is the per route stuff where he wasn't on the field. That's what makes me nervous about being in on lad, is that I know I would be less in on him if this happened last year. And like,

Like, I'm pretty sure I'm that I just should have cared about the stuff more last year. But also, it's also probably pressing too much on my brain. You know what I mean? Like, I don't know. I don't know how to balance like, I don't know how to balance like learning a lesson that was important to learn without now accepting it as our truth and gospel moving forward. Yeah. No, it's like, just as humans, it's very hard to be an objective observer of our mind and our process. And that's kind of the problem here is, yeah, like, am I more willing to just jump into the pro-out stuff because I have puka in the back of my mind?

So all that said, I still have Lad where I have him at wide receiver four. I still want shares of him. As Jacob laid out, I do think his situation is great. The floor is also probably pretty decent just based off of that. But yeah, if we're poking holes, both in the prospect and in my own takes and my own analysis, that's where I... All right. We are going to take a break that we should have taken 10 minutes ago, but Tom, by getting sick, has failed and his ability to drive the commercial bus on time. So we're going to take a very brief break. And when we come back, we're going to talk about some of your questions that we got. So we'll see you in just a couple moments.

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We already have a few questions people sent in ahead of the show. But we understand that some of you guys are already in the chat. We're going to make this a rapid fire situation. Good luck. So we're going to give this, you know, minimum max. As rapid fire as, as dynasty points can make it. including me. And first question is from the chat, and I apologize.

I saw the question and then I lost it, so I forgot who sent it. So my apologies to you, but someone asked, how early is too early for Bo Nix? We should be able to answer this in less than 20 seconds because you can just say where you've ranked Bo Nix. Yeah. So I think I'm the highest on Nix. I have him at the 109. I do have them in a two-player tier with Brock Bowers. That was mostly just to troll Jacob and Thomas, though.

So I would say the 108 is... I'll say the 1. I'll say the 1-9 is too high for Bownix. I'll say the same as Brian. I have Bownix ranked at the 112, but I have a flat tier from 1-9 to 2-1. And I think you can make a call on positional need who you want of the wide receivers, Brooks and next.

Taking with the 108, I'm giving you a finger wag. Taken with the 109, totally fine with me. I will just note. He seems to pretty frequently fall in drafts. Like I've drafted him twice, like the two, three. So you are sitting at the 109, maybe consider trading back a couple spots and getting him anyway. Next question from the chat today is who is your absolute favorite rookie sleeper and clarifies that means third round plus? Well, I have a new one.

Obviously, I've hammered Garendo, Luke McCaffrey, and Tracy Jr. to the floor, but I'll take the other 49er back just for PTSD reasons. I'll take Cody Schrader. Sigmund Bloom has already said it wouldn't be surprising if Schrader took over, Garando's backup role, draft capital be damned. Maybe we get an Elijah Mitchell, Tray Sermon repeat. I don't know, but he's free. He's never drafted.

Get him on your waivers afterwards or nap him up in the last bottom ringers around for Cody Schrader of the 49ers is one of my favorite draft sleepers right now. Mr. Heath. I'm going to keep it simple and go with Tracy. Just watching the guy, it's just so fun to see how he just bounces off of defenders in a way that I can't really remember seeing any other college prospect do. So, yeah, he's the guy I'm drafting the most in like the third and the fourth round. of rookie drafts. His ADP on Sleeper is 999 right now,

or at least it was when I last drafted him about four hours ago. So, yeah. He went undrafted in my five-round home league, so that's some of the undrafted ADP is helping. Home leagues are not, this is a different home league. It's a league with people from Winnipeg, but it's not frozen tinder, Tom.

Don't worry. It's just, I didn't feel the need to clarify for the purposes of our audience, but I'm in six to eight leagues of people who are not on Twitter, is what I'm saying, basically. And one of them, we've already done a five-round draft. And I was constantly trying to trade up into the fifth to get him and Kamani Vidal, who was also nearly went unranked.

And like, I'm trying to literally offer Russell Wilson for two-fifths to draft Tracy and Vidal, and people are not accepting. And I was, like, losing my mind. Anyway. And so I've mentioned, Vidal by proxy. He's my sleeper. He's your sleeper.

He's all of our sleepers. So I'll give you one non-Vadal name, which is Ray Davis is another guy that I'm prioritizing in as many drafts as possible. I was really excited about him on the draft show. Older prospect, but he's a guy that can do a little bit of everything. A guy that's pretty capable in the passing game, capable of past protection.

And based on how they used James Cook last year, I think probably has a chance to get a decent amount of goal line carries. I don't know how useful that is for fantasy on a week-to-week basis, but I think you ideally get him to show enough situational football that then if James Cook ever sprains an ankle, you're just sliding them right into your lineup. No questions asked for two to four weeks. We got another question in here was, oh, boy, did I miss it already?

See, I'm not good at this. That's why I'm a backup. You're looking for? That's the exact one that I was looking for. And then we're going to get into the ones that were already on the show sheet. How would you change your quarterback rankings in 10 team leagues relative to other players? That's interesting. I devalue quarterbacks a lot in a 10 team.

Like I'm just shooting for the high. Like, Knicks is not a guy I would draft as desperately in a 10 team. Like, you would probably be my 14th player. Like, he would just get pushed down and everyone behind him would push up to me. But the top end players don't change that much for me. It's the mid-ringing tiers that that would, because they're more readily available for you, right? If you think about, you know, four quarterbacks not getting started each week.

And then that's four more backups that people have to hold on to a little bit more so or a little bit less. So, I mean, eight quarterbacks is a big amount. Definitely. Yeah, there is a big market effect there. I mean, you're not going to care about the market effect if it's week six and your QB2 goes down and you have nothing. so that that's at least worth considering um but yeah i i would as tom said i would just push the non-elite guys down so i i mean like the the first four guys that i still will have in all of the top eight but yeah with with nicks i'm not taking him at 10 o nine to in a 10 team yeah i think uh you know

it just changes the replacement level right every team has an opportunity to have three quarterbacks. Your replacement level quarterback is now 20 instead of 24. So that's where like my like Jaden Dan, I'll put it by the thing. Jane Daniels will be my QB2 for sure because I think he has the highest pure upside even if I think that the extent of his upside versus May is exaggerated. So I'm it's a like you the bar is higher for value of a replacement.

So you need to be targeting higher upside. And the downside risk of quarterback is lower because you're, way less likely to get left with a chair, right? Because just fundamental math, every single person can roster three. And so if you just like have Derek Carr for free or Baker Mayfield for almost free, just sitting there and Jane Daniels busts, it's just not quite as detrimental to you. I'm looking more at those guys. I'm shifting McCarthy down relative to his peers. I'm shifting Knicks, Pennix especially down relative to his tier. Like the whole deal with Pennix is. like one day you're going to open up your present under the Christmas tree and have a starting quarterback,

and it's like that only matters as much as that present matters. Yeah. Let's get some of the ones on the sheet. So mailbag question. First one is a trade question. It says, I just got this trade offer in 12 teams super flex. I still have 103 to take a quarterback.

I have A.J. Brown, Chris Alave. This is Kirk. I'm going to assume that means Christian Kirk, but I guess it could also mean cousins. Oh, no. This is Christian Kirk,

Addison, Jaden Reed, and McLorn at wide receiver. he said he would consider 26.30. And the trade is, I'm trying to zoom in here. Trade is, he's being asked to send the 111 and a 25 third for the 203, a 25 second, and a 406. And this is, you know, I think a pretty universal question of just what are you looking for to trade back in this range of the draft? And, yeah, I mean, I'm digging this.

Like my, to me, there's two fundamental tiers, or actually, I would say three fundamental tiers in the strength. cost. The first one's after two. That's not actually a tier that I have. I have Marvin Harrison and Malik neighbors in the same tier. But if your experience is anything close to mine in these rickie drafts, if you want to trade for Malik neighbors by trading up or trading stuff or whatever, it will cost you, but it is doable.

People are willing to trade you Malik neighbors. People are just not willing to trade you Marvinson. So the amount of Marvin Harrisons that you're going to get are the amount of 101s and one of you walk into your drafts with. You're really, you should not be counting on adding more Harrisons on Caleb Williams by tradeups. So I think it's after two. It's after eight. And for me, it's after 18.

Although, you know, people don't care about round one wide receivers anymore. And sometimes they last until the third round with savings. So you're asking me if I'm here at the one nine, one 10, hell yeah, I'm trying to trade them. This guy's getting a 252 for his efforts. Absolutely. I've got it back for less. man, like unless I, the only scenario where I might not is like, I don't have a QB2. I just need Bo Nix.

I'm taking Bo Nix, right? It's not going to be worth it. But if I'm okay, I don't really care how much positionally. Like, I'm talking to every single person up until at least the 206, seeing what they'll offer. And like, I might not even need that much. Like, I've been able to, we love the third round in this draft. Like, I've done a couple where I've just moved back like to the 1-9 to the 111 and just added like literally like the 308. I'm like, I don't really care actually at all between these players.

I don't know who you're going to pick. I don't know who's going to be left for me. I don't mind. I might get my guy anyway. Sure, I'll take an extra Ray Davis shot. Yep. Yeah, I would just largely co-sign and agree there. I've found that if my pick is outside of the once, for me, it's a tier of seven.

So if I'm outside of the 107, I find that I'm just trading back and trading back and trading back. Yeah, it's just an easy, easy move for me. We're tier, we're tearing sideways. adding quite a bit. We talked enough about how much we like our third. So this is a pretty easy pick. All right. The next question is, okay, the next question is somewhat related. We talked about there being a value break at the 108, 109, and again, around the 204, 206. And yes, we just did. I've seen a lot of trade-down scenarios, which you just talked about. But can you touch on a

veteran target that you would try to pivot to have seen get acquired when you find yourself at the breaking point of those tiered? I'll note that this comes from Axe, because, And also to get your questions in when we do one of these, whether we posted on Twitter or in Discord itself, if you hashtag dynasty points, there is a greater chance your question does get selected. So I appreciate AXBakara. And the question before that did come from Jimmy Changa. So shout out to you guys. I'll start with this because I've done one of these recently. I traded 206 for Aaron Rogers pretty straight up.

And I'm just going to try to find that veteran superflex quarterback like Aaron Rogers that I can just continuously add for mid to late seconds. And I'm just going to hammer it. Also saw Axe Baccarra himself acquire Christian Kirk for two to late thirds. So I mean, I'll do that all day as. Yeah, I'll do that all day as well. So it's important to note that people will will sell vets that are less sex. C and I think Christian Kirk's a really good on one of those targets. Yeah, you took Kirk right out of my mouth.

I got him for the 305, I think. So what the hell? Yeah. Yeah, I don't know like 16 points per game is here. Like Brian Thomas Jr. is really like Ryan Thomas helps Christian Kirk. Like yeah, that is that's like you want to talk about the dream scenario if you're Christian Kirk or Evan Ingram. It's two guys and obviously having Thomas is.

better than Gabe Davis. But it's it's two guys whose primary role is to run down the field and drag safety help with them wherever they go, right? Like I, Thomas is a big help to everyone in this offense to me. Oh, right? Like he, yeah, you two. You two are helping the Jacksonville Jaguar's office. But right?

Like if Brian Thomas hits, it's in a way that is just that's raising the tot on all boats, right? It's finally Trevor has someone to, throw deep two. It's going to help this passing games efficiency because they're actually able to, you know, not just throw six-yard outroutes that the cornerbacks are sitting on all day, like whatever. Either he's going to be a bust, in which case, Kirk is going to get all the volume he wants, or he's going to succeed, in which case this offense is going to be a lot more efficient and there's legitimately going to be more room over the middle of the field.

I would not let Brian Thomas Jr. scare you off Chris McCrug. It's a big time. Yeah. Key thing, key takeaway here is by ambiguous situations, which we say a lot. Kirk and Ingram embody that situation. A lot of hype. New free agent wide receiver. New shiny draft pick. And he pushed up rookie boards. And maybe Lawrence will be good finally.

And, you know, everyone will hit. But I'll take my bet on Kirk. Yeah. Very into Kirk. Yeah. Also, they already kind of gave Kirk. And that's a great name. I'll say this.

Like, I think if I'm looking to trade for VAT, I'm probably trying to do it at that early stage, the one nine, the 110. I've seen some sexy names. I saw someone move Mark Andrews straight up for the 109. Oh, yeah. Shoot your shot, man. You know, you can get a sexy name if there's a guy who's really into worthy, maybe a guy's really into Brooks. Once you get into the mid two, like one of the things I'm doing is just whichever one of Pearsall, Legget, or Penix falls the farthest. You know, like in almost every draft, those guys aren't actually all going to be gone by two six. Some

guy's going to take Mitchell. Maybe some guy wants to take Korm or Jalen Ryd or something. One of these guys usually fall on the 28, 2.9. Once there's only one of those guys left, I'm just making it my mission to just start firing offers of veterans out for that pick, just to see if I can kind of get the cheapest of a

tier and trade into the draft. I'm sorry. I don't mean to cut you off. Devante Adams and Will Levis like going still right around the 110, 111. just you it's okay to add a little bit too i just felt like i needed to get that out before i forgot it just clicked in my head if you got to add like a three right go and get those guys they're

going to still ball out like it's just absolutely ridiculous sorry to cut you off no worries okay what do we got we got one we got uh we got a couple left three three more questions okay bucky chris seems like this rookie class is loaded as compared to the last couple weeks is it worth trying to trade a future pick for equal round in this year's draft for dynasty this is a really interesting question. I hate this. It feels really deep right now because the draft just happened. It's not going to feel really deep like two weeks in the training camp and a week into the preseason. Like half of these guys are just going to die in the preseason in terms of like where the depth comes from. I wouldn't do this because this is a lateral move to me. Like if you're if I'm trading

a 25 one or four 251 and like shipping off like a late one, I better get. something on top because you're trading you know really trading a player to somebody else that can potentially help them better their pick regardless of what the chances might actually be you're taking on that risk so for me i'm greedy you better be giving me something enough for me not just move laterally a second another player sounds like you can add kirk onto it apparently but whatever you got to do you know what i mean get something else just straight one for one is no to me. It's a lateral move where you're taking the most risk, in my opinion. Yeah. I would also just say that this year's draft is loaded is exactly what we say at the end

of April every single year. No, I don't think that we say that after. I think this time last year, everybody was like, this draft sucks. Yeah, I think last year was a very extra case. I think both of the last few years that was the take. I get, um, okay. So you're, you're right that they're there. So, Yes, there was an overwhelming kind of chorus of, oh, next year's draft is better. Like wait for the, wait for the 2024 quarterbacks or like that I agree that that's been being said for the last few years. But we, I mean, we haven't really, at least I don't feel like that has made it

harder to trade for future picks. Like theoretically, it should have made it harder to trade for 2024s. And that was not my experience last year, right? So I don't think that there's like, I think whether it's correct or not, we're always going to kind of bake present value into this. So I don't, yeah, I don't know that it changes it. And I thought the years that it actually really was difficult to trade into future years was 22 to 23, which ended up being wrong about 23, but there was like a lot of Devi hype behind the 23 draft class,

specifically the running backs in that class. And I recall, like, it being a far more common sentiment in the 22 first to be like, just trade your 22 picks for 23 picks. And then depending on how in the Twitter bubble your league mates were, that actually being pretty difficult to accomplish. I don't think it'll be difficult to accomplish this year, if that's what you want to do. Look, cards on the table, a major feature of the walkthrough every year is me commenting on exactly, when and what draft I'm trading out of the class into a future first, when I'm trading out into a future second. People may notice that was not a part of the column this year. And it wasn't because I didn't want to write about it. I do think this class is outlier level good.

I think it's clear whether or not it is, whether or not it will become that. I think from a pre-word, all we know now perspective, it is substantially deeper and better at the top than each of the last two years. I think you'd have to go back to 2021 and 2020 to where it would be comparable. And I don't think that 2025 projects to be very strong. So I'm actually like the one thing I wouldn't do, like I'm not doing the I wouldn't be trading my 25 first to go pick at the 109. Yeah. Like I actually would be willing like if there's something I really want to do, like let's say I'm trying to trade up to get names or I'm trying to trade up into the top two or something, I am willing to put my 251 into play and try to make a fair value trade for something

that I really want. And like, you know, maybe it ends up being like this actually didn't happen because we, we got pretty close and didn't do it. But like, I was trying to negotiate a trade up for neighbors that I ended up getting done with a different person when I was at the 1-6 and the 1-4 was on the clock. And he wanted my 25-1. And, you know, I was like, actually, I would do the 1-6 and my 251 for the one four and he had two seconds and I wanted both of them and I was like all that actually like I'm okay to leverage my 25 one and that way I get two shots at guys that I think are actually pretty strong value in the second and that would not have been a trade that I was willing to do last year even for like getting one of those guys so I'll say I'm more willing to put my 25 one in play I think this reminds me a lot of the 22 class when we look at 2025 which is right now outside of some league. I don't think there's a ton of knowledge yet about the 25 class. And so I think for 75 to 80% of players, it's just a blank slate. Like it's just a draft class, the draft class is a draft class.

At some point in time, I think that the sentiment around the 25 class is going to become extremely negative. Because the quarterback class is so poor. It's really dependent on a running back class, which is just the most volatile thing to be dependent on based on how teams value the position. Where we saw that in 2023, right? the whole open the 20203 class was oh there's going to be seven stud running backs well there were two basically that actually got the draft capital and then a few that turned out um once the sentiment turns negative that's when i'm fine buying in because i don't think that there's all that much of a corollary between like how we feel about a draft class and how the draft class ends up but i i do

think it's actually pretty easy to predict like it's one of the few market timing things that i actually will do and recommend people doing is trying to trade based on what we think the sentiment is going to be towards a draft class. And that was what I did in 22, which was like I was treating out of 22 picks and then leading into the 22 draft when everybody was like, you got to get already your 22 picks. Like that was when I was like, okay, I'll actually take on 22 picks. So that would be my one thing. I don't think I want to be like sitting on a ton of 25 picks this summer when someone writes

the first article about how it's the worst draft class in the world. Like I would think I'd rather be the one trying to buy in at that point. I also just want to point out that we would be remiss not to mention that with like the whole lead up to this draft is this class sucks, this class sucks, this class sucks. And we've got some like hope and a pair landing spots and now it's like outlier deep class. Well, except me for like I've never never one. No, I know. I know. I'm not I'm not like Jacob, you said this on Twitter.

You're an absolute fucking fraud. That's not what I mean. I'm just saying the general conversation around this class has been its ass, it's ass, it's ass, it's ass, and now it's, oh, one of the deepest classes I can remember. There's still like a bunch of really iffy profiles that just happen to get some pretty cushy spots. It's kind of the litmus test now of talent over situation. So it'll be pretty fun. Yeah, I mean, I just think that that, and you're right that you're saying that. I just think that, like, is wrong and always was wrong.

It's fair. Like, I think the only, like I've said this before on this show, but to me, the only aspect of this class where it was weaker than average was in the late first. And that is where the landing spot gods have saved us. Yes. Yeah. Like the top eight, I think, was always really good. Still is really good.

I think the depth of the class has always been really good and still is really good. You know, I mean, one thing is in a lot of these other classes, we've had like a bunch of fallen soldiers where there's all these guys that we have hopes for and they just tumble way down the draft board. And this year there was one. Like can you, I mean, I know everybody has their favorite little three, right? Like I know everybody has their like Johnny Wilson or their whatever crush. But like the only guy that I would say legitimately got spiked is Troy Franklin. Like who else like got murdered in the draft?

I would say estimate, right? Estimate kind of went to a janky. It was already like a round three pick. Yeah, yeah. Like, right? Like I think back on other years. Like boots to asses. Like boots to asses.

Yeah, Troy Franklin's probably like one. And like my panics in like a weird way as well. Well, maybe. Well, that's okay, that's some of the opposite. Right. Like here's the thing. Remember in 2022? That was when cinnamon went really sour on the class because it was like,

hmm, like maybe we're going to get some good quarterbacks, you know, going around one. And then it was like, oh, we're taking pick. it in the late first and everybody else falls to day three or round three and I was like fuck whereas here like we we got bonus right we get we get round one capital on two guys we didn't know we were going to get round one capital on for sure um I think I think this caught you know and then like like we talked about you know Thomas McConkey and worthy getting getting the getting a gift from the landing spot gods um I think really really helps

balance up the middle um uh one question from pesky I think we pretty much answer this. How sure are you guys we should take Thomas over Nix? We're not. I don't think any of us are sure. Ryan has Nix over Thomas for sure. Tom, who do you have higher between the two?

Give me two seconds. Then I'm going to be able to tell you I have Nix over Brian Thomas by two or three. Okay. And I do have Thomas higher than Nix, but I'm not sure about it. I have the two running backs ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. So there you go. Yeah, I mean, my take on that tier is like there's three wide receivers, pick your favorite.

There's one running back. You can put Benson in the tier if you want. And then there's Knicks. And I'm perfectly fine if you split that tier. I'm not very sure that you take it. Side note, I just want to take like a quick aside here for like why I would have Benson over Brian Thomas as well because that's like not a common thing. Please.

Yeah, it sucks that James Connor is there. But the Arizona running back. industrial complex just hypes up whoever it is that's playing, whether it's like demarcato, Michael Carter was getting saved because he went to Arizona. Eno Benjamin was getting, Eno Benjamin was the first person I made a Twitter threat about,

right? Just because he was there. When Chase Edmonds, Dynasty Darling, the minute he was a Cardinal, through multiple regimes and different quarterbacks that have had to play, if you're a Cardinals running back, your value gets boosted,

and you fucking smash when you play. So betting on Connor to go down, even though he has been the cockroach of fantasy running backs where he just survives no matter what, this is a guy that should Connor miss any time this year at all can be 15 plus points per game because Kyler dumps it off, which is weird because he's a running quarterback. He checks it down.

down and this offense is going to score points. You get very well be a 15 point. And who's behind Benson? Demarcato. It's just like, okay. So. DJ Dallas is on the roster. Yeah.

It's like pure upside plays. It's like, yeah, Eddie Benson over Thomas. That's the most DJ Dallas way to describe you. DJ Dallas is on the roster. Yeah. You sure is.

So it's like, that's what he's provided. Like, I would be surprised. tries if Brian Thomas hit 12 points per game. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Benson hit 14. So I think not just the floor, but the upside play is higher in Benson.

So more people should be taking Benson over Brian Thomas Jr. And my pushback for why I don't have Benson in that tier, and we've shared both sides of this, I think on the last show, was, and I like Benson, he was my pre-jured after every one. I just think that the market has like a very glass ceiling. on running backs where to me your your value return on investment with thomas can be immediate like if brian thomas steps out week three eight targets six catches 120 touchdown get ready to

learn round three startup pick buddy like immediately whereas benson it's like um he's behind what happens when connor comes back they might add someone in the draft they might like is he gonna hold up like it's just it's just a whole like look at like the rashad white the pacheco like it's this slow gradual where it's like, okay, fine, you're with the late first. But you want to tell you're with a mid first. Oh, well, now you're old. Immediate cell possibilities, though, I feel like are higher with running backs, right? Tage Spears went from absolute.

This is why I disagree. So hard. I think that's totally wrong. Tage Spears, like, went from nobody to like top 12 running back. James Robinson went from nobody to like. Top 12 running back is like a sixth round pick. Yeah. I think it's easier to sell.

In season, people, I feel like people pay higher for running backs and they do wide receivers just in a personal experience for me because wide receivers are so readily replaceable that when a running back, quote unquote, breaks out their value just absolutely skyrockets. For me, me personally, this is a me personally thing, but this. Speaking me personally is a guy with a lot of Kairn Williams last year. I still have a lot of Kairn Williams this year. Like, I, not my choice. Like, I just, yeah. I feel like all the year last year was me trying to be like, anybody want my Kairn Williams?

Everybody's like, no. You want a 26 second? I'm like, not really. He's scoring 18 points per game. Anyone want to give me first? Yeah. Stop playing with like Twitter, wide receiver boys and,

Zayflowers. Discord. Week one. Week one, he gets like 11 targets. And I have offers every league. People are like, I'll give you. my vital organs for St. Flowers 10. And like I have

Rashad White scoring 18 points for game and they're like I would rather shoot my dick off than give you an early second for Rashad White. I would I would say this. I think it is. It does depend on who you play with. That is a very bunch of wide receiver boys you know. I can

I think I can square both of these takes a little bit. I think it is easier to sell like spot start replacement level running backs. during the season if the asking price is like a second or a third. But once you're getting up into that tier where you're where you're expecting, okay, this is like a Rashad White who yes is scoring great right now.

Maybe there's a potential for him to continue to have value beyond this year. Once you're paying for that, people are very hesitant. That's my experience. So that's where I would put. People will pay for the production they feel assured of. And so people will pay for people will pay like the small price for the short term running back. And they'll pay the iron price for what they see as the thoroughbred running back, like the breeze or the bejean or whatever. But I agree.

I mean, it depends on the league. Like I think there are several leagues in which this is not the case. And people do get excited about young running back still. But I have found in my leagues at least or in most of them, similar to Ryan where people, people will be like. like, I'm not going to pay for the 23-year-old Rashad White when I don't really know what's happening after this year when I can just pay a fraction of that for Aaron Jones. And I'm like, fair, same. Also, please pay me more for Rashad White. And they'll be like, I'll pay. And I'm like, well, I don't, you know, so you're almost like free-rolling it at that point. I don't know. I don't

know that it's efficient either. I feel like it is a know-year-league kind of take, right? It's a very hard thing. My voice is so going. It's, I'm so sorry, everybody. And I know I don't have like the Tom rant throwing stuff energy in me right now. I'm battling through this, but that that is a very know-your, know-your league type thing and take. But I'm just more confident in that young upstart RB thing than tarnas. Last question. Last question. I'm a friend of the show.

Yes. Friend of the show, Wyatt B. How much weight you put into Troy Franklin being drafted to play. with his college quarterback. Doesn't help soften the blow that he was a day three pick. No, he's dead. He's dead, bro. Well,

well, and was that, was that meme that you said, like, Wyatt, I love you so much. Check out JWB. They're phenomenal over there.

What was the meme you said? It was like KJ Hamler and then it's Marvin Mims and then it's Troy Franklin. Like, they're just a Spider-Man. I like Troy Franklin better when his name was, um, Marvin Mims. And I like them even better when his name was,

or sorry, I like KJ. Hamler better when his name was Mark. I like more minutes. I like more than better. Yeah. So whole. I don't know how much talk I put in this. Remember the Hollywood Brown was playing with Kyler Murray? Yeah, exactly. Yes. Yeah. I mean, look, it helps. It doesn't hurt. Certainly doesn't hurt. I think the best thing you can say about Troy Franklin's landing spot is not as much the quarterback. It's that they have horrible wide receivers. And so, you know, it's kind of the case that I made for Amonra St. Brown back in the day, which was like there's two reasons. There's two things working against a day three pick, right?

The first is that they're probably worse than we thought they were. And the second is that they'll have less opportunity than they would have. And with Amin Ra and with Franklin, that second part is probably not the case, right? Like he, a lot of teams when they're drafting day three players, you know, teams are, teams don't really care if they plan on starting you or even giving you an opportunity to start when they get to day three, which is one of the big risks. that you're less assured of a landing spot that makes sense for you and it gives you opportunity. And that's really beneficial for Franklin that he ends up landing in a spot where he probably will

have that opportunity to win a starting job. So how much does that matter? It's like, you know, I would say the same thing about Franklin as Javon Baker. And Franklin's going in like the early to mid-second in a lot of these drafts. Baker often is going in like the late third, early fourth. Franklin's production profile is better. it's not like, you know, galaxies better. How much does the production profile matter when the NFL just took a shit all over it?

Like, I would way rather be taking low, low, low opportunity cost Javon Baker bets than like relatively medium to high opportunity cost Franklin bets. I won't go as far as say he's dead. I just don't think he's properly priced. Like I would really like to be, I would be totally happy to take Franklin shots in like the early third round. but you're you're paying like how many i don't know how many drafts i've seen in which franklin has gone off the board after and legate are both gone not not a lot for and that's where like i am not taking a day three or over um you know day one and early day two wide receivers that are just walking into starting jobs like at day one no questions asked that's that's the

one yeah i'm i mostly agree there um i thought i would get some troy franklin I have him ranked as my 24th rookie. But yeah, based on how my drafts have gone, I won't be getting any. Realism hasn't said in a take lock yet. Yeah. But yeah, I mean, I have Leggett over him. I have Polk over him. I have Jermaine Burton over him who is a day two receiver who could well be walking into a starting job.

I had a tweet a couple days ago showing, basically that the Bengals played close to the highest rate of three wide receiver sets in the league last year. So, I mean, obviously part of that is going to be down to talent. They won't do that as much if they don't want Burton on the field for whatever reason. But there's at least the possibility there that he just walks into a day one starting job. So yeah, 100%. I just want to write comment on this comment real quick from Dan Calzone. Remember when Najee Harris was the.

top tier dynasty asset, RBC sync quickly. Yeah, but you still need to invest in them, right? You can win titles without them, but investing in top end running backs when they're young, and as I mentioned very early in the program, knowing when to get out is, again, knowing when to get out on a dynasty asset before the hill hits is the best and greatest tool the dynasty manager has in his belt.

That's what sets players apart. So you can still and should still invest in young very good to elite running backs. It's just knowing when to get the hell out that sinks people. Yeah, especially when the price is like a late first in this year for as I said earlier. Yeah, for a Jonathan Brooks who does have a three down skill set is walking into a situation where he like injury recovery aside could could just be an immediate. at 60% plus snap share type of player. So yeah, totally. I'm happy to win.

Also, Trey, I really liked Trey's comment here. Franklin has to go above and beyond to prove you can play. Leggett, Coleman, lad, etc. have to prove they can't play. And that is very true. That is exactly what, you know. It's a great point. At the very least, if you want to be a Franklin truther,

you can at least tell yourself that, like, he will get an opportunity in the sense that some guys, they just get drafted on day three. They really never get a chance. And they could be the best player. And we just might never know. We're going to know with Troy Franklin. That depth chart is weak enough that we will get the chance to find out if he can play.

But the bar is really, really high. He has to go in and earn every single snap and route that he gets in a way that these other guys, you know, yeah, they're going to, they can fuck up over and over and they're going to get more chances. They're going to run out of chances. Draft capital doesn't make you good, but it certainly buys you second chances. And it buys you as a dynasty manager. Second chances to tell them. That's going to be it for our show. We've been going for 100 minutes.

Tom is on the last legs here. I'll say this. Derek Brown just showed up in the chat. Yes, shout out to D. A little late. We're just ending up here, D, bro. But we got to talk. You and I got to talk.

We've got to get you on here. I love all you guys from. I couldn't tell if that was Rashad White with draft capital positive or with draft capital negative. I didn't know if that was like I hope it's positive. Rashad White's been good for fantasy.

I'm assuming it's Rashad White with draft capital complimentary based on his next mess. Yeah, people are doing dumb shit in rookie drafts with Brooks falling into the second. Yeah, that's the type of stuff. We'd love to have you on to talk about deep bro. We love you, homie. I will say this.

If you want your questions asked, if you wanted to do more of these, like I know this was really long. Yeah, good shit. Thomas can buy some cold medicine. Yeah, I'll be able to buy cold medicine, ignoring the fact that our healthcare system is free. If you like and subscribe to the channel, because the more you like and subscribe to the channel, you know, the more it helps us move up the algorithms and all that. I am dying a little bit at the moment. I don't have much voice left, but if you want more videos like this, all you got to do is when we post or just ask us any of us in any of the distance. chords or on Twitter with the hashtag dynasty points. We will be doing a lot more of these into the into the off season.

Not something we've done in the past, but we are trying to coordinate our content better for what you guys want exactly. So please all the comments you want. Let us drop it in there. Jacob, you obviously have thinking about thinking going all the time. Ryan, you and I are planning some content videos for the channel itself. A lot of great stuff here, guys. I appreciate it.

I need to go and die. If you, if you haven't already, subscribe to thinking about thinking the link will be in the description is my favorite substack that exists right now. Yeah,

hour and 41. Much love everyone for sticking around. You guys have been dope. We got to get out of here. Remember to check in on your loved ones even if you're not sure that they need it. Remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose and that your best days

are always spent tilting. Good night. Everybody.