Fantasy Football Daily - Breaking Down the Most Important Week 18 Games | Take Talk Podcast

Episode Date: January 3, 2024

Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7) and Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) take a look at all the key Week 18 playoff scenarios, discuss the officiating fiasco from Week 17's Cowboys/Lions game, and talk about the latest embarrassment for Panthers owner David Tepper. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS IN 2024 AT OUR EARLY-BIRD RATE, INCLUDING OUR NEW ALL-IN PACKAGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. We are back. Another episode of the TikTok podcast, Week 18, Steve, I'm your host, Brett Whitefield. This is Steve O'Rourke, my co-host. We are Week 18, Steve. I can't.

I was so excited to say. that that I got it out too early. I wasn't even through my intro and I just was like 18. Here we are though. Week 18 Steve. This is for us, this is exciting because it means life is about to get a little easier. Yeah, it means we're entering a period where we have about a month where the workload is nice and light for the playoffs. Yeah, nice and light. I will be working on the draft guide here at the fantasy points, but it is a new, anytime you're pivoting from one thing to the other,

like I have a lot of excitement and enthusiasm for the draft guide right now. Yeah. I don't have many, much excitement to chart coverages this weekend. So, but here we are. We'll get it done.

We'll finish strong and we'll provide you guys at the best data possible. But Steve, it is the end of the season though, which means the playoffs are here. We need to jump in and discuss the games that matter this week. we're going to do a game by game breakdown of the five games we've identified as the big

boys. Before that, dude, we got some things to talk about. I want to start with, I think I want to start with David Tapper, since it's not necessarily football related. Yeah. It is, but not in the way the other topic is. If you guys didn't see David Teper, who's getting a bad rap as a guy with quite a temper, Tepper the Temper, he threw a drink on a patron at a.

his stadium, a Jacksonville Jaguars fan, because Tepper was upset about the way that the game was going. So it was right after Bryce Young through an interception. I'm sure the Jacksonville fan said something to him, Steve. That's not verified, by the way, but I'm sure he did. Do you think he, like, and maybe this was just my perception of it, but it kind of just looked like he just didn't even care what was happening. And he just, like, was angry.

And it was just like, I'm throwing my drink. and it went into the poor humans that paid $12 to sit in front of the press box in Carolina. And it's just like, he has just no regard. It just seemed like he's like, I don't care. I own this. I'm pissed. I'm just going to launch this drink. And there's Brian, there's some unfortunate people that just like all of a sudden it's like, well, it's sunny out.

So I don't know why I'm getting wet right now. I don't. So I was thinking maybe he just tossed it. But the fact that it landed on a Jacksonville fan is a little concerning. It's like, you didn't hit a Panthers fan. It just happened to hit the Jacksonville fan. It did look like there was some type of exchange going on there. Now, granted, the Jacksonville fan from the video I saw didn't make what I would consider an aggressive movement until after the drink.

He did him. Which is fair. Which is fair, totally. Yeah, it was funny. because Tepper said like by the way his his apology was a total non-apology he starts by saying first of all just want you know I'm really passionate like that doesn't are you though yeah I mean well even if you are that doesn't mean yeah I'm passionate too I don't go around throwing drinks on people like I don't right I haven't like rough someone up at the grocery store because I'm passionate about food

you know what are we doing here so pat being passionate and being out of your control of your emotions aren't that's not an excuse for that so but dude this is a guy who's he's fired five coaches in five years clearly he has a temper like let's just get it out there have you heard the goldman sacks story steve i've heard bits and pieces but lay it on me this is a guy david tepper owner of the carolina panthers who he you know he used to work at golden sacks before he made his billions um felt like he was due a promotion his boss at the time snubbed him of said promotion. Tepper eventually leaves Sacks,

goes on to start his own hedge fund, makes all of his money, and then, out of spite for his boss, he buys his family home. It looks like maybe it was a vacation home of sorts for $43.5 million, just so he could tear it to the ground

and spite the man and build a new home on it. So this is a guy who, like, this is quite the track record. here like he's just passionate he's just passionate man he just passionate about screwing people passionate about rubbing people passionate about rubbing your nose in it you know like pretty wild though what you need go ahead it's just so funny he's owned the team for five years and in those five years he's managed to turn it into I mean arguably like the laughing stock franchise like everything's everything that's happened anything that's happened to the panthers has

in spite of him and not because of him. That's just, it's just gross. What, just the way he's operating it, the way he's doing things with the team, the whole, all the rumors with, you know, the whole situation with Bryce Young even, it's just like, it's just so massively dysfunctional and the whole drink throwing thing. The fact that I think most people were like, like, saw it and we're just like, yeah, I mean, he sucks. That's, he.

We're not surprised. we're just upset kind of thing, or we're just disappointed because it's like, really, like there are people that pay, pay, you make money off of those people that are sitting in front of you that are at the game. That is a large source of your income. And you have the audacity to ruin,

potentially ruin an experience for them. You have no idea who these people are, how often they make it to the games, well, you know, all of this. And to just like so blatantly, you know, separate yourself from the world and think that you can just do that is it's it's gross it's it's

gross and it's just like it it I mean he got reprimanded but just it what he's doing with that what he did what he's doing with that team is it's gross it's disgusting and I feel bad for panthers fans and I feel bad for the people that you know are paying money to go to to pay money to support this team and inadvertently supporting him he didn't even get reprimanded. The fine he got, if you scale it to what he makes in a year, it would be like you paying $1.

Yeah. If you sued something up at fantasy punch, you're like, Steve, you owe us a buck. You know, that was messed up that you did that. That was bad.

You're taking a buck out of your paycheck. He'd be like, okay, whatever, that's a dollar, but whatever. Oh, that's basically that's the equivalent

of the fine he got. Now, obviously, everything needs to be done within reason. So I'm not sure that it was more than a $300,000 offense. But the idea that he was reprimanded, it's just like, yeah, whatever. Yeah, that kind of stuff.

And listen, Daniel Snyder got, what, 25 years of being an A-hole before he got ousted as an owner. So Tepper's still got 20 more to go. Like, we're good here. But even Snyder got to mostly go out on his own terms. Yeah, yeah. And collected an insane amount of wealth in the process. Yeah. So Tepper, the thing, other aspect of this I wanted to get to is, so he has been, in my opinion, he in the media heads have been desperately trying to cover up the fact that he forced the regime to take Bryce Young.

Yes. And before we go into this too, I feel bad for Bryce Young. He's in a terrible situation. I really liked him as a prospect. Didn't think he should have been the number one overall pick. That doesn't mean I didn't like him, though. I just think he's in a really bad situation. So I do feel bad for him.

That said, it seems like when everyone around is chirping, you know, Tepper got involved. Reich and McNaulne wanted C.J. Stroud. And then they go that far out of their way to convince you. It was unanimous. Like that's what we came here. It was unanimous. Everyone loved Bryce Young.

Dude. And then that coaching regime gets fired. And then the guy you would think is going to be the interim head coach also gets fired with them. the GM's gone like no it obviously wasn't unanimous you know basically got rid of everybody that disagreed with you so yeah yeah i mean he he went with the my way or the highway and when operating a football team that's not the way to go no nope should be a collaborative effort and the owner should have his voice weighed a lot less than the guys who actually do football for

living. So, and credit to Jerry Jones. Jerry Jones actually does football. Like, I know he's one of the owners that's more involved. Jerry has actually grind and tape, though. And checking out analytical profiles, his opinions at least found it in something where Tepper's just like, oh, I got a great feeling about this kid, Bryce. Let's get him.

He's my guy. You know? Everyone's saying he should be number one. So we're going to make him number one. Yep. All right. We can move on from Tepper. I do think the NFL should probably be a little more proactive with.

with handling this. You know, NBA gets involved when owners make up, make bad decisions all the time. They step in and they guide them. They provide counsel to them. The NFL needs to do this because five coaches in five years is a bit much. Forcing your GM to draft a player that they don't want is a bit much. Now he's throwing drinks on fans. Like, I'm not saying he needs to be forced to sell the team,

but the NFL needs to put down some clear boundaries of like, hey, why don't you let this team operate, you know, without you being so involved? So, yeah. You're basically a bank, David. Just remember that. Yeah, that's what you're here for. Yes. You're here to make sure everybody around you gets paid.

Yep. All right. The next thing before we get to the games, the Dallas Detroit game, the lines headed to Dallas and they lost in tragic fashion, 19 to 20. The refs really screwed the pooch on this one, as the kids say.

This was a, I don't know if, how you wouldn't have heard about this already, but if you haven't, the Detroit lines ran a trick play where they threw a two-point conversion to Taylor Decker that would have gave them a 21 to 20 lead with 23 seconds left. Very important to say that, because a lot of people are saying that the lines would have, like the lines won. No, they didn't, it wasn't over yet, but it was probably, probably would have won, but there were still 23 seconds left and Dallas. I think Dallas had. Yeah. Three timeouts or two. Whatever. Like they had, yeah, they had enough ammo to get into

field goal range for sure with the best kicker in the league by the way so it's not even it's not guaranteed the lines would even have won that game but they for sure would have taken the lead um dan campbell and his staff laid out the play for the rest before the game it was even drawn up on a on a official not like a scratch piece of paper the same type of play charts they use for the players it was drawn up on a play chart they went over it with the refs Taylor decker comes in the game there's clear video of him reporting the NFL's even confirmed Taylor Decker has reported or reported, but the refs got confused. They identified Dan Skipper as the reporting lineman.

They throw a flag, discount the two-point conversion. The whole thing was a mess. But this is a crew, official crew that's been on the bad side of a lot of calls this year, Steve. Like the highlight tape of their messed up calls is insane. Every controversial call this year has been this official crew. they didn't even they didn't make it a week before they were back on the chopping block they didn't make it an entire week because the philly game right i thought it was the kansas city game kansas city packers oh yeah that well that was more than a week ago right oh was it either yeah the oh yeah the philly game that was it silly game two weeks ago yeah there's been five instances in the last six weeks of the season involving this crew it's it's and they've all been game like game affecting decisions so uh they'll oh the kansas city Cincinnati one was a big one too they messed up but anyways this crew is terrible and i wanted to point

out a lot of i haven't seen this talking point a lot but brad allen the head official or head ref whatever they call him he's the only referee in the NFL since 1962 that got fast track to his position so typically in the NFL you have to go through like you have to work your way up the ladder like start as a linesman and then you know maybe you're a review booth guy and then eventually you work way up to head official this guy got fast tracked he joined the NFL and went straight to the top right away and he happens to be the worst official they have so um is that a coincidence i don't i don't think it is i think not yeah it'd be like me hiring a new guy tomorrow with no football background being like all right your chart and coverage is now.

That's true. All of them. You're going to do the most complicated thing we do, and you're going to do all of them, and I just expect you to be good at it. With minimal training. So that would never happen. It would take years for a guy to get to that level here.

So I don't know what the NFL is thinking with this guy. And then he gets rewarded with doing a playoff game. That has now been a week, a week 18 primetime game, sorry. But they were saying they were supposed to do a playoff. off game, but they got pulled off of that. Which like that, yeah, they announced that pretty soon

after the game, I think they announced it on Sunday or Monday that they'd been pulled, which again, like everything around this has just gone so south and there's, there's so much emotion from both sides of it, obviously. But like, it just,

I've seen, it's gotten so deep in the weeds. of like who thinks what happened. I still think it's pretty gross misconduct on the refs part just because all the video shows that, you know, pretty, we can pretty confidently discern that Taylor Decker did report. Everything points to that happening. And it seems as though either Brad Allen was in a rush and did not care. or did not pay enough attention to what was happening, which is bad.

Or he just didn't, or it's just like he didn't care. And he just ran with what he wanted. And it's just like, I can understand having and missing a holding call or like the tripping penalty that happened not, you know, two minutes earlier in the game. That's even a bang, bang play where, yes, it probably should have been, you know, looked at and discussed. and they should have changed it because it wasn't on Dallas. But even that, it's like it's a game that, it's a,

it's a play that happens in the middle of a play where these refs are responsible for watching every, you know, every single guy in the field and things kind of get lost in it. But with this, this is a procedural thing. This isn't in the, in the heat of the moment and of a play. This is something that's happening basically in between plays. And it's something that like needs to be taken time with and make sure that everything things right. And he just didn't do that. And I, that's just, I think that's what the most frustrating part about it all is, is that it's such an easily avoidable mistake that, you know,

it's, it's hard to, hard to come to grips with, like, what happened and why it happened the way it did. And then for the NFL to kind of like double down and agree with Brad Allen, basically by like sending out the video to all the teams saying like, all, you know, like, oh, this is what needs to be done, even though, like, you can see that they're doing what needs to be done the right way. And I don't, and I hate the talking point of, well, the lions were trying to deceive the Cowboys by sending three linemen to Brad Allen. And that's what they get for trying to be deceptive. It's a trick play. Everything about that is deception.

They do, there's deception. Everything does it too. They do it in different ways. And you don't really ever see this happen, at least not, again, not a procedural thing. And it just, it's, it's gross and it's, it stinks that that's the result and that's the talking point of what was a really, really good game. And like a really, like really should have the NFL community looking forward to, you know, a competitive playoff matchup potentially between the lines and the Cowboys that looks to be like something that could line up. And instead now that, now that it's gone completely the opposite direction, it's the only talking, all only talking about the refs. and it just like and and then I mean I don't I'm not going to say the person's name but I saw like

something on it of like well well it doesn't matter because you know if they had reported if they had reported the right guy they would have uh the cowboys would have seen it and they would have defended it well look at what look at what these players said after the game or you're talking about Emmanuel Azo yes I am and he he was like look you know I'll say, I will. Yeah, the reporters asked the players after the game. Like, if they had said this guy was reporting, what would have happened? They were like, we would have defended him because obviously, that's so dumb.

Like, yeah, like no NFL player, a person who's very prideful in winning, very prideful in what they do. No NFL players are going to be like, yeah, it's a good thing that they messed that up because if they, even if they had said it, you know, we, we would have messed it up and they would have gotten it. Like, no, it's just, it, everything's gone south. And also I want to address that anybody and everybody who is saying that it doesn't matter, that it doesn't matter who reported the lines were in a legal formation, stop talking about it. You don't know what you're talking about if that is one of your talking points. That quickly died, I feel like.

People did try to go that angle, but then it died quickly. Yeah. Oh, it's still out there if you did it. If you, I mean, not from. From Cowboys fans, I'm sure. Yeah, not really, yeah, not a ton from like big talking. heads but from you know fans it's still getting talked about i just it's not it's not a thing it wouldn't it was not an illegal formation if the right guy was reported just get that out of the way it's done

it's over with but yeah it's just like it's just too bad that it was tainted the a really good game was tainted by this and is you know completely flipped on its head yeah because of like guys like emmanuel ho saying what they said um i do appreciate the former players that have stood up and said it wouldn't have mattered they weren't covering them either way because for one you can't hear like you can't actually hear the announcement on the field it's almost more for the fans like or it's a procedural thing where it's like we're announcing because we have to but like everybody that's been involved in situations like this said that you don't you don't ever hear the announcement you just know somebody's eligible that's not supposed to be and then secondly a bunch of like former I think Richard Sherman actually came out and was like dude they wouldn't have covered them anyways. No one ever does. Like that's why the play works is because no one covers the linemen that's going out for a route. That's why usually when you run it, it works.

The lines have run that play before, too, by the way, and it's never not worked. They've never once covered the guy leaking out. They've run it almost once a season at this point. Yeah, Campbell got his first win on that play, I'm pretty sure. Was it against, I know they ran against a C-Hexam. Hawks in his first year. Yep. They ran a similar play to Penae last year for the first down to clinch a game.

It was to the other side, though. Yeah. And if he was in the flat more, like where Decker ran more of a curl, Penae ran like a flat route. But yeah, they've done these plays a lot. So, and it never gets covered. So whatever. We should move on, though. Let's get into real football discussion.

I've identified five games that I think matter a lot. There are, of course, other implicating games here and there, and we'll get to what they mean, but we're not going to go. We're not going to break those games down. But to start, let's go to Bill's Dolphins. This game is Win it, Fort a Biscuit. It is being played in Miami, so I would say slight advantage to Miami there. However, the bills are kind of rolling right now, aren't they? Yeah, they are.

Yes, they are. They had a rough offensive day the other day, but the Raiders defense is playing crazy right now. So that is who they played right. Why is my brain failing me? I'm like, it wasn't the Raiders. It was who did they play? I'm broken. The Patriots, sorry.

Yeah, Patriots defense. Again, that's it. They got their mind right now. So they struggled offensively, but they still got the job done. This is a winner take home game for the bill. So if they win, they are in the playoffs. They win the division. If they lose, there's a good chance they don't make the playoffs at all.

There's a chance they don't make the playoffs. If they lose, they would need... If they lose and the Steelers win, the Steelers make the playoffs and the bills do not. They need... So they would need a Pittsburgh loss or a Jacksonville loss or a Houston, Indianapolis tie to clinch a playoff spot. If they lose.

And Pittsburgh is playing the Ravens who have nothing to play for this week. And the Jaguars play a division game. I can't remember who it is. Tennessee. They're playing hard still. I know they've only won, what, five or six games. They're playing hard, though.

And Vrable is definitely going to go out of this way to try to ruin the Jaguar season. Yes. I wouldn't say it's a layup, especially the way the Jags are playing right now. They're not playing well. So, yeah, there's a lot of scenarios there. What do you think of this game, though? the Bills versus the dolphins in Miami without what Jalen Ramsey's out or no he's not sorry Xavierine Howard is out yeah I mean so we've already obviously they already matched up once

earlier their season Buffalo 1 40 to 23 I believe um yeah this is this is a really exciting matchup because Miami had their struggles against winning teams have been noted big time they've you know they've beaten up on bad teams. teams. And when it comes time to play teams with winning records, they've struggled. They've, you know, been kind of picked apart. And, you know, their defense hits points where they kind of stall out. And it just, you know, like we saw it last week, they lost 56 to 19 to the Ravens. And that's just kind of been the course of their season is they take advantage of bad teams. And when it comes to good teams, they either keep the close and lose or they get boat raced out of the game.

I think that Buffalo ends up pulling this out. I think that some of the things that you're seeing with Tua are, I don't know, kind of concerning in the sense that like I think we're just, I think we're at the point where he is a guy that you win, not because of, but with. Like you win with him, you don't win because of. him. And you can see, you can just see it, you know, the going up against good defenses. He'll have moments where he, where the offense comes alive, it looks to be rolling.

But then they have these times where everything just kind of crumbles and it's, you know, partly because of the offensive line, too, it gets under pressure. But also, Tua just starts to, I don't know, even just like, start forcing things. He doesn't start, he doesn't see the field as well. It's, it just, you know, starts moving too fast for him. And he gets into these situations where he's, you know, he goes those stretches where, you know, they have three, three and outs in a row because they have so much of his productivity hinges off of the success of the run game. And that's what these good defenses are doing is they're shutting down the run. And they're basically saying you can only drop back and pass against us.

And that's not where Tua's strength lies is not being, he's not, you know, he's not going to be the guy that's going to pure drop back an entire game and, you know, will a team to victory against another really good team. And I think that Buffalo's defense has started to kind of find a groove. They've started to, you know, gel the pieces together that they have after, you know, a myriad of injuries on that, on the defensive side of the ball. And the linebackers are starting to, you can see the communication starting to work out. And they're all starting to meld well.

And it just, I like Buffalo and they're rolling. And this is, you know, I think that Miami's in no matter what. and not that not that Miami's not going to play for the division but I just think that the bills can't afford to miss the playoffs and I think that that the it's the like cage dog in a corner type situation where they're going to pull out all the stops and Josh Allen his turnover his prone to turnover has been better the last few weeks and I think that that'll carry through in this game. Yeah, so you're taking Buffalo.

I'm also going to take Buffalo. We got this game back in week four, 4820, Buffalo 1. I will say that both these teams are very different versions of themselves since that moment. And I'm going to have a contrarian take here. I think it's funny because both these teams are probably known for their finesse. Yeah. You know, they're Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle and Stefan Diggs and two quarterbacks that like to let it rip.

I think this is going to come down to trench warfare, man. Buffalo, they have been pounding people on the ground lately. They're 2.22 adjusted yards before contact per carry the last five weeks. Insane. Miami is right up there too, one of the best running teams in the league. They have not been as efficient of late. But of late, I mean last five games. Then they were early in the year, but they're still a very good running team.

Conversely, Buffalo's offensive line as a whole, it's probably playing the best it's ever played with Josh Allen at quarterback. Now, I know if you look at just the raw data, their pressure rate is still high, but you have to adjust for the fact that Josh Allen holds the ball for over two and a half, or sorry, 2.8 seconds per dropback. So when you adjust for that, this offensive line, they actually pass protecting pretty darn well, and then we know about the run game coming alive.

I also like Buffalo has some emerging targets. Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid have played well. James Cook has really established, himself as a pass-down weapon, which is what I thought he would be in the NFL. It took him a while to get there. I think his issues in past protection kept him off the field early in the season, but now he has become a very reliable checkdown option, mismatch option for Josh Allen and the bills. I think he's a little bit more valuable than we initially thought. And then Miami on the other side, like they stopped the run really well. This is going to be a strength on strength

type deal here with both wanting to run the football and Miami being good against the run. And the flip side. Buffalo's been terrible against the run of late. Last six weeks. Not even up late. Well, yeah, whole season. Yeah, they've had these weird moments where it's like, it's good for a couple games and then they get really bad again. That's probably

actually schedule related. I'm sure against bad running teams, their running defense looks decent. But against good running teams, they've been horrendous. So Miami definitely checks that box. I just think it's going to come down to trench play. Buffalo as a unit getting

I think their offensive line is just playing so good right now. And Miami's offensive line is banged up. They have not played as good of late. I think maybe you see, I think you see Buffalo dominate the trenches. And their defense. Miami's defensive line is banged up too. They just lost Chubb.

They've been without Phillips. I forgot about Chubb. Which weird is when they lost Phillips, their pressure weight went through the roof. Like they actually got better. They started blitzing more, though. Like, yeah, I think their Blitz rate almost doubled after they lost Phillips, which makes sense. But Van Ginkle and Chubb were locking it down.

But now that Chub's out, that's really scary for them. They don't have a lot of talent right now at the edge position. So, yeah, I forgot about that. That makes me feel even better about Buffalo. Yeah, just more it just concerns me that if you can't get pressure, like consistent pressure on Josh Allen, and he's allowed to sit back there and, you know, think through it. everything, you know, have guys come over and scramble drill. It could be a long day.

And Miami's interior defensive line is, you know, it's solid. They still have Seeler and Wilkins, but against Buffalo, you need, you need some speedy edge guys who can keep Josh Allen under contain. And now they're down, you know, they're down their two best guys. And that, that's concerning because that makes me think that Josh Allen can can take control of this game with his legs or with his arm and just, you know, know, create out of, out of, out of scheme and, you know, do the things that Josh Allen is known to do. And that, that part concerns me of, like, if Buffalo can control the trenches a bit in the run game and also be able to protect Josh Allen, I don't see how Miami can keep pace with them.

Because, again, Buffalo, I think Buffalo's defense is playing well. and I think that they'll force, you know, a couple puns, you know, maybe a turn over here. But I think that they'll have Miami's offense on the ropes at times. And I just don't know if Miami can consistently stop Buffalo on offense. Yeah, agreed. All right, let's move on. I don't want to spend too much time on the Jags Titans game, but it is important. We're in a weird situation where three of the AFC South teams are in a win-in situation.

so that is very interesting. The Jags are in the driver's seat to win the division right now. No, they could still lose that division. But so if they win against the Titans, they are in and they win the division. There are some scenarios where they get in still if they lose. I don't want to, those are like way down the totem pole. I'm looking at it right now.

It would take a lot for that to have, for them to lose and get in. there's one scenario where there's one scenario where they can lose and get in and that's if Pittsburgh loses and Denver loses and Indy Houston doesn't end in a tie Denver's officially ruled out though yes but yeah or yes but um I don't know it's it's in there but it would take a lot for them still is that was indie Colts would have to end in a tie I think is you're right um All right.

I do think that I mentioned earlier, the Titans are going to play hard because it's Rable, yada, yada, yada. Yeah. I think Jacksonville probably does enough to get this game done, though, and win the division. What do you think? If Trevor Lawrence plays,

I'm not worried if Betherd ends up getting to start, which I can't imagine that they would go into, you know, it'd be absolutely dire straits. Like Trevor Lawrence was armed would probably have to be falling off for them not to play Trevor Lawrence and put Bethard out there. But it's more of Tennessee's offense, I don't think, has the juice to. It's no longer Derek Henry months. No.

December, January, it used to be Derek Henry's months, and it's no longer that way. Tennessee's offensive line, it's so bad. It's bad. It's a struggle for them, but, you know, both drop back pass and running the ball. You can just see that it's like it's painstaking to watch their offense because it's either, you know, what it's been, it's either been Will Levis dropping a bomb or them going three and out on, you know, two, two yard carries in a row and then an incomplete pass. It's been kind of the way their offense has been operating in Jacksonville's defense, especially the way Josh Allen is playing on the edge. I think that it's, you know, I don't even think it matters what their offense does.

I think that their defense is going to be able to keep Tennessee at bay enough that, you know, they could win this game 16 to 6. Sure. One thing that's come like a revelation with the Jags offense since Christian Kirk has been hurt is a consolidation. Like it is basically Travis E.TN in the run game and Evan Ingram, Calvin Ridley in the past game. They're not really thrown at anyone else. Those guys both, their top ten in targets over the last. three weeks. Now, Ridley's been

very inefficient doing so. I think his yard for route runs just like 1.47 where Ingram has been one of the better tight ends of football this year. He's over 100 catches on the season, I think, which is crazy. I think he's just one of a few tight ends to ever do that. Cool milestone for him.

But the consolidation should help them against the Titan secondary. That's been very soft. They're very banged up. I think maybe we get one of Trevor's best games of the season this this week. Assuming he plays, of course.

Yeah, they can use it because they need. Christian Kirk's clock is starting this week. So it's, they need it back. That news come across Twitter. So that's big for them, assuming, and if they get into the playoffs, that changes the complexion of their offense.

Yeah. I just, yeah. They've also stopped, they've started actually targeting Egram down the field, which I think is pig. So much of it. So much of, Ingram's targets have come on screens this year.

Screens, sit downs, flat routes. It's been weird. And it's nice to see that they needed a reliable over-the-middle guy from out of the slot that role that Christian Kirk is occupied and they've filled that in a lot with Ingram. And you see it's paid off. And so I think that's been a big development. And, you know, they're going to, the only thing that I could see that could work against them is their commitment. to the run game and Tennessee's

good against the run. It's one of the few things that their team does really well is they do really well against the run. In Jacksonville, they won't stop running it. They're not going to pull away from the run game and that's the only thing that I can see them getting into trouble is if they try and really

get in pound the rock, get stuffed, and then all of a sudden they're getting behind the sticks. But again, I think the matchup that ends this game is Jacksonville's defense against the Titans offense. Great. All right.

Moving on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the Carolina Panthers. This game is being played in David Tepers, Carolina Panthers Stadium, Bank of America Stadium there. I think this is an easy slam dunk win for Tampa Bay. It does have playoff implications, though, because if Tampa wins, they win the division. It's another weird one, though, where it's like, it's a fence game. If they win, they win the division and if they lose, they're out of it altogether, which is just kind of funny. Like, there's no margin for error here.

Thankfully, they get probably the worst team in the NFL in the week they need to clinch. I don't think the Bucks have any issues rolling through Carolina here. In fact, I would say we might even see a less committed Carolina team this week than we have the last couple. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I don't think there's much to talk about this. If Carolina were to pull this off, it'd be an incredible collapse by the Buccaneers. And I just can't see that happening in any way, shape, or form.

I'll just say this. One note on Tampa, they, you know, it's been a Baker resurgence, David Canales, looking to probably be one of the next big head coaching candidates in the league after what he did with Gino Smith and now Baker Mayfield. But early in the year, it was all Mike Evans. He's great. We all know he's great. Chris Godwin, though, had not looked like himself until recently.

and I know Canales said in a press conference exactly three weeks ago that he wanted to get Chris Godwin more involved in the offense because he's back, he looks healthy. The last three weeks, he's got 28 targets, 90% route participation, 3.34 yards for route run. So job well done to David Canales for following through there and getting that done because Godwin looks great. You have Godwin and Evans playing at the level they're playing at, plus an emerging Trey Palmer who's given them some juice down the field,

Rashad White, who has looked better than he's ever looked. The whole thing has kind of come together for them offensively. You know, not necessarily a team that's going to make any noise in the playoffs, but I do think they're scary. I don't know that you're going to love going to Tampa Bay to play them in the first round of the playoffs. So anyways, moving on the other AFC South game, that's the banger, the Colts versus the Texans. Where is this one being played for whatever reason?

I didn't throw that in my notes. Colts versus Texans, Colts versus Texans. Colts is at Indianapolis. It's in CJ Stroud's first game back. Yeah, Saturday night. First game back since the concussion. I will say that I think I'm going to go Houston here and hear me on. A lot of people are picking the Colts.

They want to see the Minshew magic in the playoffs. The Colts defensive line has completely fallen apart. They have not played well. despite the big investments they have across the board between what is it, DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart and Quiddipay and Adeo Odiombo. And it's just not working. They rank nearly dead last and pressure rate, 33.8%. They don't blitz either.

So like not only do they not get pressure with four. They don't even try to get pressure with more. Ooh, that rhymed. I'm spitting bars. And then in the run, dude, their run defense is totally, them in Tennessee have swapped places. Tennessee was really easy to run on early in the year. Colts are tough.

The last eight games, they've been brutal against the run. Last five games, there are 2.17 adjusted yards before contact per carry, which is horrendous. Yikes. Legitimately horrendous. It is,

you know, bottom five number in the league there. So I do think that this is a favorable matcher for Houston. They've been running the ball better of late. They get their quarterback back. Nico Collins is healthy. Noah Brown looks good. I just feel like Houston's going to get it done.

D'emico Ryan's probably my coach of the year. Yeah, rightfully so. I'm torn on this game. I think it's going to be a really close game, close matchup. You know, they played week two of this season, so I don't even know if you can really like draw from that a ton just because of the way CJ Stroud has developed. And like you said, the way that they've seen.

started to find their footing a little bit late in the season in the run game. This is pretty much a completely different team compared to what the Colts played, what the Colts played in week two. Yeah. So I, I think I'm going to just, I think to be contrary, and I'm going to go with the Colts. I think that the way that the Colts offense runs is going to give the Texas defense a little bit of trouble. because so much of how this Colts offense's run is that they, you know, it's all about getting the ball out quick. It is so it's a ton of RPO action.

It is, it is just don't even put a lot of the, you know, a lot of like full field big decision making plays into men's shoes hands. Just really kind of make it, you know, a binary thing of like you have one or two and it's, you know, hand the ball or you have. have a, you know, kind of a design slant, design stop, whatever you want route behind it. And then they take a couple, you know, a couple play action shots down the field every, every, every couple, you know, drives. And I think that John has, we're running a college. It is, it is 100%. And it's, you know, all the credit does stiking.

I think that he's really taken what Minchu's good at. And he's, you know, built that offense around his strengths. And, you know, I think a lot of offensive coordinators, a lot of coaches, take notes from that because that's kind of an important thing. Play to your player's strengths. But a big thing is I think that having Jonathan Taylor back and him being healthy right now, I think that that also helps them. And I think it'll be a close game.

He does. And I think it'll be a close game, but I just think that the Colts will give the Texas defense enough troubles where their secondary has been playing okay. They've had moments where they've looked good. But for the most part, over the course of the season, And they've kind of struggled. It's a young, it's kind of a young secondary with,

and also with some guys who are just, you know, placeholders until they continue building out that secondary. And I think that they're going to put, I think the Stuyken's going to put that defense in a lot of conflicts. He's going to prevent Minshue from taking out a lot of pressure from those, from those edge rushers that Houston has. And I think that the Colts end up winning what ends up probably being kind of a shootout,

in my opinion. I like it. So we were the same on everything until then. You're taking the Colts. I'm taking the Texans. I agree. It should be a close game. Ultimately,

I'm just siding with who I think Stroud's a better quarterback right now than Minchew. I think game on the line situation, I trust Sloick and Stroud more than I trust Stuyken and Minchew, which it is what is. So as long as it's close, I feel good about the Texans coming out on top. Yeah. I think it needs to be a point of talking for the Colts to like, we can't, we need to be the ones with a ball at the end of the game. We can't let them have any time because Stroud has shown that, and listen, the cold secondary isn't very good.

If they get into a situation where there's a minute left and Houston has, you know, a timeout or two and they, you know, it's go down and score. Yeah, I think I'm taking Houston in that scenario. All right. The last game of the slate that we really care about is the Pittsburgh, Baltimore. game and we're not sure the Ravens care about this game. So I will say though, Steve, in a game where Pittsburgh has to win, I don't know why. I just feel like they're not going to win. Tyler Huntley is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league.

He can effectively do, he's Lamar Light, right? He can do Lamar things. In fact, he'll even be more inclined to run with the ball than Lamar probably has been this year because he has less to lose. The Pittsburgh defense has been weird. Their pressure rate at times is literally falling off a cliff, but they do force the ball out faster than any team in the league. So I think their pressure rate at times has struggled because teams have acknowledged

they have two really good pass rushers and we don't want to get caught with the ball in our hands. So they get the ball out quick. But in this offense, I think you could see that being a thing where Baltimore makes that a concerted effort. Also, if they don't, Huntley is athletic. And I'm assuming he plays most of the game, by the way. Is Lamar even going to play at all? Do we know? I haven't seen anything definitively,

but I think that we're pretty safe to assume that Lamar is probably not getting out on the field for much. Yeah, so Ravens are locked into the one seed. They legitimately have nothing to play for. So Pittsburgh has to win to get in. I just, I don't know. I don't feel good about it for whatever reason. What say you? Is it?

So it's more interesting to me of whether, of who the Ravens play on defense. True. Because if the Ravens play, you know, most of their starters on defense, because, you know, obviously you can't play all backups at every position. It's just not really how it works. So you're going to have starters out there in spots. And I just, I don't know if the Steelers can move the ball well against the Ravens. Now, granted, the Steelers offense with Mason Rudolph has come alive in a way.

and running game. Jalen Warren and Najee Harris are starting to, I mean, they've just figured it out. I don't know if it's just the run game. Run game has finally come together, but they've kind of figured it out here. I just, I don't know if the Steelers can confidently move the ball against the Ravens defense, and I think that that could be their ultimate downfall. I mean, they played earlier this year, and that was, I mean, it was a fluke win by this. by the Steelers that everything had everything in the world had to go wrong for the Ravens and they still had a chance to win and they did they did it but you know the chance was there and that was you know the perfect script for the Steelers to win and it worked out in their favor I don't think they get

eight drops from receivers in the open field that could have gone for touchdowns and I don't I just I just think the Mason Rudolph magic so to say is going to kind of run dry here you know he's been he's hitting Pickens down the field a lot. Pickens has come alive since it's come back alive since Rudolph's been in, but that is the one thing to your point. So one thing Rudolph offers this offense that really Pickett and Trubisky didn't is just the ability to push the ball outside the numbers down the field. I talk about this literally all the time, Steve. It's my biggest issue with Pickett is he can't get the ball outside the numbers down the field in time and rhythm. He's not confident doing it. He made a couple of those throws in the preseason. We all got

excited, then it just died. We thought it was the offensive coordinator. It may have been. We don't really know. But Rudolph is definitely getting the ball down the field outside the numbers. Pickens is thriving. Deonti Johnson's thriving. This is definitely a big upgrade there.

Yeah. I never thought of it. I know. How Trubisky won the backup job is beyond me. But I just, I think that's what the Ravens want, the Steelers to do. is try and push the ball down the field. I think the Ravens trust their secondary against that type of offense. I mean, the way Gino Stone's been playing,

the way the secondaries been playing as a whole, they've kind of baited quarterbacks into going deep on them, and it's resulted in turnovers and whatnot. And I just think that that I think that'll end up pulling it out for the Ravens. But I think just because the Ravens probably won't play all their starters, like Lamar Jackson won't play. inevitably it'll probably be a close game but I just don't know if the Steelers

have it to pull it out. Yep. Agree with you. All right. Closing thoughts. I don't think I have any. I think we covered it. I think we got it.

The only scenario to be aware of is let's see. It is, hold on, there's one. Oh, the Seahawks. If they beat the Cardinals and the Packers lose to the bear, the Seahawks are in, correct?

And then the Saints, Falcons, sorry, if the Saints beat the Falcons and the Buccaneers lose, the Saints will win that division. Correct. Yeah, yeah. New Orleans is a losing out. Atlanta is a losing out.

Wait, Lain is still alive? No. If they, if they win Tampa Bay loses, they can win, they can win the NFC South. Anybody can win the NFC South right now. The problem is Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay plays. Carolina. So, unfortunately. But, you know, this, I think that this is the, this is the NFL's dream

this week is. Oh, yeah. All of these scenarios is exactly what this 18th week was supposed to get to. And it's, you know, both, both years now, it's worked out in the NFL's favor. Yep. Over the last, the last two years, it's worked out where almost every game on the slate has some sort of meaning. Yep. All right. That's going to do it. We are out of here. Week 18, enjoy it, people. It's going to be awesome. Stay tuned to content coming out on FantasyPoints.com, especially if you want early access to really good draft takes from the guy who does a draft guide at Fantasy Points. You would have known about Jaden Reed and Rashi Rice and Pooka and Zay Flot. Well, Zay was a first round

pick, so I'm not going to put a feather about that. But all those other guys, Tank Dell, you know, I was high on all those guys. So you'll get early access to takes that will get you aligned with what actually happens on the football field. So anyways, check it out. Content will be coming soon. I go to Mobile in three weeks. Steve,

I'm excited about that. That is exciting. It's going to be a bangor this year too. Like Bo Nix is a lot of you come to go. Sounds like Pennix is going to go. We get Nick's and Pennix. The best two quarterbacks we've had there since Herbert Hertz. It's been a while.

So going to be exciting. Anyways, it's going to do it for us. We are out. Enjoy the week. Talk to you guys soon. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.