Fantasy Football Daily - Brian Branch, Darnell Wright, and a Special Fit for Luke Musgrave | On the Clock! NFL Draft Podcast

Episode Date: February 28, 2023

Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) welcomes in Kyle Crabbs (@GrindingTheTape) of @TheDraftNetwork to talk Alabama DB Brian Branch, Tennessee OT Darnell Wright, and a special fit for Oregon State TE Luke Musgrave. Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://underdogfantasy.com/?_branch_match_id=661346116268496405&utm_source=partner&_branch_referrer=H4sIAAAAAAAAA8soKSkottLXL8hJrNQrzUtJLUrJT09LzCtJLK7US87P1S%2FQhfJ0C%2FIz80qKAXq4AjkxAAAA --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle. From numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Yo, and we are back with another episode of On the Clock. Today we have a super special guest for you, my pal Kyle Crabs, who is the co-founder of the Network and the host of Locked on Dolphins. Kyle, my man, how are you? I'm doing great, Brett, and I'm looking forward to catching up,

talking a little bit of ball here, and really diving in on some of my favorite storylines from this draft class, which is a unique one in plenty of ways, and I'm sure we're going to talk about that here today on the show, so I'm excited. Heck, yeah, Kyle, one of the things I love about your takes is, I know, we got to spend a significant amount of time together a few years ago when our pal Joe Marino was getting married.

And we kind of picked each other's brain on our scouting process. And I think out of all the people I've talked to in the space, your process was the most similar to mine. So I've always had a pretty high affinity for what you do and your takes and how you get to the conclusions you get to. I think it's really solid process. Well, and that's really what it has to be about, right? Is it just you have to, because you're not going to bat a thousand and you're probably going to bat around 500 with every opinion you ever have. So is the process of coming to those decisions sound logical and rooted in good information? And if the answer there is yes, just know you're never going to see the complete picture and you did your best.

You had good process. So that is what I aspire to have with everything is at the very least good process. And if the result is good as well, then that's the icing on the cake and the cherry on top. And we'll cherish those opportunities when they go. Absolutely, man. Well, sweet. So that said, let's just jump right into it. So for the listeners, we have this usual format we do where I have a guest, bring me a guy they're higher on the most, a guy they're lower on than most.

And usually I try to pick a fight with them for the third guy. But this time I had Kyle bring somebody to the table. He wants to see a team player fit. Somebody he wants to pound the table for a specific player to a specific team. So we're going to dive into all three of those. And we're going to kick it off with Alabama defensive basketball. Brian Branch. And Kyle, I call them a defensive back because the man has some utility to his game.

Hit me, Kyle. What do you love about Brian Branch? Because I'm in full of grants here. Well, you say utility. And I think that's a great word to invoke off the top with Brian because he can play safety. And he can play in the slot. And there are some people that seem to think he can play corner. And that level of versatility is just invaluable in today's game with all.

of the week-to-week challenges that you're going to get with different personnel groupings, different body types, different ideologies to attack a defense and you as a defender having to defend an offense and being somebody who can live in the box or somebody who can tackle in space on the perimeter or somebody who could play coverage is in zone over the middle of the field. And then you put in the third down skill set that he has as a potential pressure player and how good he is in instances when he's called upon to be an add-on onto a pass rush. There's just so much you can do with this player.

That versatility, but he's not the Isaiah Simmons positionless player. And he's a safety. And we've seen plenty of these Alabama safeties that have this role in the defense, have successful transitions to the pro game. game, and they've done so in different ways. You think about Xavier McKinney versus Mika Fitzpatrick, right? They're different players at the NFL level, but they all illustrated this same level of versatility of Bama. And I think Branch is just next in line. I think if you don't factor in for positional values, one of the 10 best players in this class, I think there's very little that he's not

physically capable of doing on the football field for you. I totally agree with that. The thing that stands out for me, Kyle, is his willingness to live on his instincts. I mean, his instincts are freaking incredible. And I mean, I would say he does take some gambles at times, but he's almost never wrong. It's, it's absurd some of the plays he's made. I mean, we've got the viral interception he made where he jumps the flat route. I forget what game that was, but we've seen that clip on Twitter like 7,000 times. But it's an incredible play. But that's just a a microcosm of what his game looks like on the whole. Yeah.

And, you know, that aggressiveness and quick twitch factors also into attacking, like, perimeter screens and throws where he's tackling receivers 101 in space and beating a block in the process. And I think that's when you roll down on the slot and they try and crack down on you with the perimeter receiver and they try to run the bubble. and you can run through that or you can run over top of that, but you can gauge that in real time. That's a player that those kinds of reps give you a certain level of confidence

about his ability as a fit in the gap count for defending the run on the outside. And we know that's the kinds of things that offenses want to do, right? They want to force your DBs to tackle with consistency. And somebody who can be a dime backer but can also play. in two high shells and then can be out in the slot and have that kind of success tackling at the line of scrimmage. That's an every down player in every sense of the word. And I have a hard time seeing a world where Brian Branch isn't a three down player who plays effectively 100% of your snaps defensively because whether you're in dime base or nickel, like he's going

to be somewhere and he's going to fit because he's shown that at Alabama. So I'm glad you mentioned the instincts because obviously that's something that pops with me as well. And I just think that the discussion with Branch will be fascinating because predictively, safeties have been a group that hasn't seen the bump yet as far as getting drafted. You know, you think about guys like Antoine Winfield Jr. not going in the first round. Javon Holland, not going in the first round.

Like there's good safety. Xavier McKinney, who we mentioned. There's good safeties every year that aren't big. long types and they don't go early in the draft. And I don't know if it's because, well, we want to live in too high shell world more and more frequently now to prevent explosive plays. And we don't feel like that skill set is as valuable or it's easier to find or what. But a guy like this who can do so much, if he doesn't go in the first 20 picks,

I don't know what you've got to do to be a safety that's just six foot 190 and get drafted high anymore. I just don't know. I feel you on that. I'm glad you brought that up because, I mean, even last year, Kyle, like Kyle Hamilton went probably later than people expected him to go. You had the Michigan kid, Dax Hill go later. I mean, I had a firm first round grade on him.

He goes tail end of the first round. Lewis seen, I had a solid first round grade on him. He goes last pick of the, or second of last pick of the first round. It's just you really haven't seen that bump. So I guess the question I have for you is, could he get a little bit of a bump? because he might have more of that slot corner versatility where maybe a team identifies him as a guy who can play in the slot

60% of the time, 70% of the time, depending on what kind of three safety looks they like to deploy. You would think so, but that's another position that hasn't gotten the bump yet either. It's traditionally your nickel corners is, oh, well, that's a day two player. And I think Dax Hill is a good name to invoke here for a player who played in the nickel, played safety is a little bit more of a true free single high free safety at times as a high post player.

I think about Buda Baker in Arizona and Buddha coming out of Washington was not a first round pick. So I could see this thing folding both ways. I can see, I think acknowledging this draft class for what it is. I think there's probably three or four legitimate blue chip caliber. players at the top of the draft that are firm top 10 valuations and then you've got all of the quarterbacks and a handful of offensive linemen. But I think you get outside of that, I think this does set up to be the kind of class in which Brian Branch does go in the top 20 or top 25, whether that's Detroit or Tampa Bay with them having a bunch of expiring contracts in the

secondary or Green Bay with Darnell Savage kind of taking a step backward. Like there's plenty of teams and landing spots there in the back end of the top 20 that I can point to and say this would be a sensible fit. So I think that paired with this class gives me hope that it happens, but I don't know, just because there seems to be this stigma on this kind of player. Yeah, I totally understand. From a Detroit guy perspective, if they got him at 18 somehow, Kyle, that's like a slam dunk. He's probably the one thing they're missing more than anything. I know they need outside corner help as well, but like that, that instincts player to be in the middle of that defense would be awesome.

To pair him with Kirby Joseph would just be such a home run, man. Yeah. Is there another team that you think really, really, you know, should start considering him in that those early teens, maybe even earlier in that 10, 11, 12, 13, something like that. Man. So Houston just took a player in Jalen Petrie that can kind of do some of the same stuff. I think Branch is a better player than Petrie. So I can cross Houston off the list.

Tennessee at 11. The Jets at 13. The Patriots at 14. I mean, the Patriots going to keep running six safeties out there every week. I know they got Gibral Peppers and McCordy is expiring contracts. So maybe there's a little bit of room there. Like I know I mentioned Green Bay at 15.

That really feels like the sweet spot that that stretch of from Green Bay down through. I don't know, even Seattle at 20, I think could be a decent fit. I think there's probably four of those five teams in that stretch really feel like the sweet spot for Brian Branch. If I look at his role, opportunity in those respective teams, other personnel that they have, and then just actual valuation of the first round of this year's class. Yep. Good stuff. All of that spot on.

Let's move on to a guy that you're a little bit lower. around than I would say consensus. I don't even know how much you pay attention to consensus. I was talking to other guys in the business about this, and it seems like the more, you've been in this for a decade now, you probably don't pay a whole lot of attention to other people's opinions. But I'm sure you check occasionally. So that said, let's get into Tennessee offensive tackle Darnell right.

And you are wearing Tennessee orange right now, Kyle. I am. I am. Yeah. So had to give a little bit of love as we talk about the questions that I have, with Darnell. What's funny is I generally don't read. I've become so conditioned to kind of operate within my process, not overextend myself as far as seeing what other people think and feel. Every once in a while, you'll get on the timeline and you'll see everybody's going off

about one person's opinion and I have no idea who said it or anything like that. So it's kind of take catalog of those instances. But Darnell, I think it was DJ. Daniel Jeremiah had Darnell, I think, in the first round of a mock. And that for me was where I kind of picked up like, oh, okay, like I like Darnell right as a day two offensive lineman. He's a little in between for me. Obviously, he's got the stature of an offensive tackle. But you look at his movement skills. And I think from a movement skills perspective, he's probably better suited inside a guard.

So now you kind of have this conflict of movement skills versus leverage. and playing inside at Guard. And you've seen guys who aren't super fleet of foot who can live on the right side of the offensive line to tackle and survive there anyway. But I know the buzz and kind of the resume game for darnall right is, oh, look what he did to Will Anderson in the Alabama game. And that's fine.

But Tennessee went tempo and called Will Anderson when Alabama was running drop eight inside of the four-eye for significant portions of the game. and I really could not care less. I'm sorry about anything Will Anderson does as a 4-I because he's not going to live in that world in the NFL. So they're not translatable reps when Will Anderson is on your inside shoulder and you're stonewalling him in protection.

I don't care. It's not valuable to me. So that's the thing with darn all right that I think everybody, when they have the discussion around him as a player, that's the first thing they point to. But when I actually went through and watched the game, yeah, there were some reps where he showed, really good hand strength and clampability.

And when he got his hand set, he was really good with functional strength and anchoring. But the angles in which he was getting tested for significant portions of that game aren't where I have the questions about the angles that he's going to have to face in the NFL. Yeah, what you just said about the catching Anderson, you know, in the drop eight scheme with the tempo. That wasn't just a theme in the Alabama game. They did that to everybody. If you stacked up your top 20 tackles right now, Kyle, I guarantee you Darnell Wright saw more drop eight looks than any other tackle in this class.

Not to mention the RPO game they run in Tennessee, that tempo. By the time you remove all those from the sample, and obviously there are good reps in there, you can't just throw them out. But point being, the amount of translatable, true pass that this guy has at the college level is minuscule compared to the rest of his. the guys in this class with him. Maybe Harrison from Oklahoma is similar in that regard. But for the most part, I mean, Wright really was in a favorable scheme for his skill set. And I think you're right. I think he's probably better inside a tackle with his movement skills.

He does have great length, though, right, Kyle? He's got prototypical length. So that, again, is the struggle. It's okay, what's the strike timing quickness going to be like on the inside where the angles are shorter and you have to get set quicker effectively. You know, it's less about reactive quickness and taking the air out of pass rushes and closing the angles down and then protecting your inside from two-way goes. And it's more, you got to be on now.

So I'm glad you mentioned Anton Harrison. I have him ranked 30th right now. And darn out right for me is 85. So there's a decent separation there between those two guys. And the other name that I thought about that I struggle with with how much drop eight that he saw was last year with Charles Cross. But I think the difference between Anton Harrison and Charles Cross, who obviously played in Mississippi State and they got drop eight all the time,

is the athletic profiles, where I don't think Darnell Wright has the athletic profile of an Anton Harrison or a Charles Cross that gives me the same level of confidence that, yes, he saw drop eight, and yes, he got four eyes, and yes, he had to set inside and squeeze more than he had to fan out, out, but the movement skills of those guys, when they do fan out, you know they have the reactiveness and the quickness and the fluidity to be able to pin back inside if somebody tries to work back underneath of you. I just don't know with darn all right, it feels like there's times where his lower half gets left behind on some of his blocks. And if you think about tackling speed off the edge in those instances, you're going to have to be flawless with your sets. And I just don't think that the reps are there just yet for that transition to be a particularly smooth one for him. I think he could be a adequate starting offensive linemen. Yeah.

I just don't think it's going to happen right away. And I have some questions about whether he's going to be inside or outside. Yeah, another name to throw out you too in that regard is Christian Darrasaw. Yeah. He had less than like 150 true pass sets in college, which is crazy when you actually think about it. But obviously that all the athletic traits were there. And there's plenty of teams willing to bet on that. And he's turned out to be an okay pro.

Just kidding, he's very good. But yeah, I mean, so I agree with your takes on Darnell. I kind of view him as a guy you're probably drafting and trying to develop a little bit, figure out where his best spot is, and maybe he gets on the field in year two or back end of year one. I just don't see him as a guy you're drafting and plugging in and playing right away. But we've seen worse players started in year one than Darnell, right? That's for sure.

Right. And they go a lot earlier than when I have them ranked too. I would not be surprised in a world where he does go top 50. It's just that, especially if a run goes, right? If you see all through the teens with the Jets and the Patriots and potentially the Packers and the Steelers and the Jaguars, if they let John Taylor go, I mean, you start doing the math on what the tackle run could look like. Kansas City potentially, if they opt to lose one or both of their tackles and free agency, I don't think they'll let. both of them go, but you start doing the math and, okay, now you got Bergeron's in this discussion to go a little earlier. And I certainly think there's a world where a team could potentially trade up to go get Darnow Wright to prevent missing out on the run altogether.

So I think that's a fascinating element of how the earlier portions of this draft will domino effect down to Darnel Wright and where he ultimately is drafted. And there is a certain point, too, where the tackle market dries up very fast in this draft. Would you agree with that? Yeah. Yeah. And he might actually be the stopper there. Like, once you get past him, where are you at on like Jalen Duncan, Maryland tackle?

So I like Jalen. I wish Jalen had taken a little bit of a bigger step forward this year. Darn Al Red is my cliff, by the, by the way. I have Paris Johnson. Peter Skoransky, Broderick Jones, DeWan Jones, Anton Harrison, all top 32. And then I have Duncan and Bergeron between 32 and 50. And then I have darnow right at 85. And after that, it's a cliff.

See you later. Right. So we literally invoked, what, six or seven of these names as potential like first round guys. So that gets to be very scary if you're a tackle. like thirsty team. But as far as Duncan, obviously the Ohio State game and the end of the Ohio State killed him because that was the big hallmark showcase and Zach Harrison tagged him twice at the end of the game to lose the game.

But I liked what he did down in Mobile. I thought he helped himself by playing on both sides of the line, left and right tackle and showcase that he looked pretty fluid. Maryland hasn't had an offensive lineman drafted since like 2018. I think Derwin, Green, Ray was the last Maryland offensive lineman drafted. He was drafted in the seventh round. So Duncan will put an end to that.

I like him better than Wright. He's right there in that block with like Harrison and Bergeron for me is like probably the tier three of top 100 tackles in this year's class. That's awesome. All right. So that was offensive tackle. Darnall Wright from Tennessee. We're going to move on to a special fit that kind of.

Kyle sees with Luke Musgrave, tight end from Oregon State. Now, Kyle, we've talked about Musgrave a lot on this podcast specifically, actually and a lot on my other one because I'm a huge fan of Musgrave. And I think, especially with Kincaid not working out in Mobile, there's a sneaky chance, Kyle. He works himself into this tight end one conversation if he goes and blows it out like I think he's going to. But you have him as you like his fit in Jacksonville a lot, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

And I mocked and the only mock I've done so far. I gave them Dalton Kincaid. And so I see the tight end need. I see this as being a huge opportunity for them. I love Musgrave. So hit me, tell me what you like about Musgrave and tell me why it works in Jacksonville. Yeah.

So Musgrave obviously, just this enormous human being that can absolutely fly. He comes out in Mobile and tells us he felt slow on the first day of practice. And he was like the first tight end in four years with zebra technology to crack 20 miles per hour on the gun. And that's feeling slow. Okay. So he only played in two games this year. Obviously missed time.

So you have to acknowledge and embrace that there's a little bit of a leap of faith here that needs to be taken. But I'm watching his movement skills all week long in Mobile. I'm watching how physically he is. You can see his opportunities to play on the line of scrimmage. And what I love about that potential fit with Jacksonville is we all know Doug Peterson in Philadelphia and how much he loved his two. tight-end sets with Ertz and Goetert and what they were able to do. And you have Evan Ingram who signed him for agency this past year and was a rousing success for the team.

He probably had a career year for being honest. I don't know off the top of my head if he set career numbers across the board. But, and then you add the dynamic there with Musgrave being a more true in-line type of player. So you have these complementary skill sets, but they're both dynamic players. big body players. And I just really feel like Doug Peterson would get a lot of run

out of those contrasting skill sets together and you're not sacrificing anything from a receiving capability standpoint. This is not a zone buster who's going to sit down in soft spots and zone and that's it. Right? Like this is a player you feel like in play and defeat man coverage.

He can win away from man coverage. He's got strong hands. but then he's what Evan Ingram's not as the player who can be your Y and put his hand in the dirt and help you win in the run game as well. So I just think about Doug and two tight end sets and what you have in Ingram and what he can be. And I think he's bigger and more physical than Kincaid, but he's more dynamic than Michael Mayer. So that all-encompassing blend for me is the selling point that gets me really excited and I hope we get to see it. I love it.

So the objection for most people on Musgrave is just sample size isn't there. He played just over 1,000 snaps and four years of college football. For comparison, Maher played over 3,000. So like, the sample size is very small. But if there's a single position in the NFL to absolutely just sell out for the traits, it's tight end. It's analytically speaking, like 90% of tight ends with a thousand-yard season in the NFL tested as elite athletes. and we know Musgrave is absolutely that. Just look at the names of like guys who have taken the NFL by storm.

Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham came from freaking basketball. Travis Kelsey was a great athlete, not a refined player coming out of college. He is that now, of course. Gronk, like they drafted him in the second round on 75 career catches and like less than 600 snaps. I mean, that's ridiculous. Darren Waller, you know, transitioning from wide receiver to tight end. So this is an athlete position. If you want a true math changer,

at the position. You've got to get a guy with, you know, extraordinary athletic. It's not to say that Kincaid's not a good athlete or a Myers is not even a good, I don't think he has the explosiveness of Musgrave, but I think Musgrave's a whole other level of athlete. And that's why I'm just willing to sell out for this guy. I think the zebra technology story you told was hilarious,

because I did hear that second hand. And also he was like the fourth fastest skill player in Mobile as a 260 pound tight end. Right. ridiculous. I mean, that is utterly ridiculous. So I love it. I think the explosiveness here, from a build perspective, he almost reminds me of this is a little bit of a throwback. But Jordan Cameron out of USC, 2011. So he was 6, 5 and a quarter, 255 pounds. He ran a 453 with a 37.5 inch vert, a 10-foot broad, 6-823 cone drill, like all elite numbers at 255. And that's kind of the build.

And Cameron peaked in Cleveland. I think he was just short of 1,000 yards. And injuries kind of derailed his career from ever really living up to that full potential. But that's from a body type perspective, that's the guy that when I look at, that's the player that I see, is that kind of player. And it's a shame we didn't get to see what that would have looked like. But I'm glad that you mentioned athletic profile for tight ends because it is something that you have to have a tangible. And I think I saw Kent Platt mentioned this recently because he did a whole project about NFL rosters versus their relative athleticism scores.

Tight end is the position that below average athletes. are getting drafted more than any other position in the NFL draft over this recent sample size, in spite of the fact that the strongest correlation between elite players and elite athleticism is like the tight-end position. So make heads or tails of it. I don't know if you can, but this is a guy I would absolutely bet on if you are comfortable with the lack of sample size, like has been mentioned. Yeah.

The 90% stat I cited was a Kent LaPlatt stat. He will be on the pod next week, recapping Combine events, too. So that's a nice, unintentional plug there, Kyle. Good kid. Kent's a good dude. So he does great work. Yes, sir. Cool.

Before we wrap this, Kyle, I do need to do a quick live read. I forgot to do it earlier. So we're going to do it right now. But, hey, listen, if you're a fantasy football player, you know that the fantasy world never stops. The 2022 NFL season is over, but fantasy football season is just beginning on underdog fantasy. The easiest place to play fantasy football. Right now, you can draft an underdog's the big board tournament with a million dollars in total prizes, including a 200K first place.

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this under 30 minutes. I consider this a success. Listen, I'm just glad you were willing to share the mic with me and let me spew hot gas all over your podcast. So this was fun. I enjoyed it. And we'll have to get you over on my show, Return the Favor here and talk some offseason and some draft here coming up in the near future. Sounds good, really. Let's do it. Real quick, where can the people find you at grinding the tape, right? At grinding the tape on Instagram and on Twitter. I have not taken the table. deep dive into TikTok or anything like that. But I feel like that I'm a generation past that. So you probably will never see me on TikTok.

But Instagram and Twitter, Akron, and tape. You can find me over at Locked on Finns for Locked on Dolphins and the Draft Network.com for all of my latest thoughts and opinions for the 2023 NFL draft. Awesome. Thank you so much, Kyle. And for the listeners, we will be back every day. this week. So we have three more episodes for you this week. Then we'll have a full calendar of five next week. Thank you so much for listening. We are out.

Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.