Fantasy Football Daily - Bucky Irving & Jonnu Smith: Late Season 2024 Fantasy Football League Winners | School Of Scott

Episode Date: December 6, 2024

Welcome to School of Scott, the ultimate fantasy football masterclass hosted by Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com. In this episode, Scott and Theo Gremminger break down key takeaways from "The Everyt...hing Report." Week 14 Everything Report - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/the-everything-report-week-14#/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/ScottbarrettDFB http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/the-everything-report-week-4#/ Use promo code SCOREMORE for 10% off your subscription. Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 How good is James Winston going to be for the rest of the season? Incredible performance on Monday night football, but how much confidence level should fantasy managers have in Winston and the Brown's offense moving forward? This is School of Scott podcast, the Fantasy Football podcast, where we take a deeper dive into the box scores and help you become better at playing fantasy football. I'm going to turn it over to my man, Scott Barrett. Scott, you did the Everything Report. It was awesome this week.
Starting point is 00:00:38 as always over at fantasy points, but I got to dive into James with you to start out. This is a guy that we've been talking about for weeks and his tertiary weapons and David and Joku breaking out. And we were right on this one. You've been on top of this passing game for a while. Tell us how confident we should be, though, in this short fantasy football playoffs plus week 14 coming up.
Starting point is 00:01:00 Yeah, I'm extremely bullish. So he just went up against a Denver Broncos defense that led the league in EPA per dropback allowed. They had given up just one quarterback performance over 18 fantasy points. What was the result of that? 497 passing yards, four touchdowns. Here's like the killer stat, though, which I think is so incredible. So the Browns with James Winston are averaging 260.8 catchable air yards per game.
Starting point is 00:01:33 That's over 25% more than the next closest offense. 40% over the offense next closest, Bengals and then Seahawks, just in case you're curious. With Deshawn Watson, though, they rang dead last. And so it's just there is so much value, not just from James,
Starting point is 00:01:53 but primarily to his past catchers. And so we've been on this for a really long time. I was talking about the league winning potential to this offense before Winston made a start this season. I mean, it was obvious last year, right with Flacco and they kind of profile similarly. And so we knew the upside was there. And then I was again beating this drum several weeks ago because it looked like this
Starting point is 00:02:16 might be even better than the Joe Flacco experience. And, you know, I don't think there's really that much of a benching risk. I know James is going to throw some pick six and interceptions. It's part of what makes him great, you know, it like forces the volume. But like the team has really rallied behind him. they love him. And so one thing I did say, and I've been saying for several weeks, is if you look at this offense, it's actually extremely highly, it's not at all condensed. It's really concentrated among like all four of the receivers. We've had Cedric Tillman out the last 1.5 games. I know Jerry
Starting point is 00:02:58 Judy just went absolutely nuclear, but he was still out targeted by David and Joku. and Elijah Moore. And so what I was writing for this past several weeks was like, if one of these wide receivers can separate themselves, you're looking at like an Uber league wrecker, league winner profile. And I have to say like that has to be Judy now, just because of what he did.
Starting point is 00:03:27 When you have a performance like the one you just had, with Patrick Certains shadowing you on over 60% of your routes, by the way, 200 plus yards. That has to be rewarded with alpha wide receiver one levels of volume. There's a chance that doesn't happen just because, again, it's been so concentrated and Tillman was out. It just hasn't mattered at all when all these guys are averaging over 100 air yards per game, 7.5 plus targets.
Starting point is 00:03:56 That's all three wide receivers and the tight end. But no, I think, I think this, here's what I wrote in the Everything report was it really might just be that 2024 fantasy league trophies are won and lost by whoever had the most exposure to Browns and Bengals players and or had Sequin Barclay on their team. And so this is a brutal matchup on paper. We have another brutal matchup this week against the Steelers. We have another tough matchup after that.
Starting point is 00:04:29 But week 16, so right before your league's fantasy. championship, the Browns play the Bengals. And we'll probably talk about the Bengals a little bit, but that's what I've been saying is like these two offenses, like there's power law players, there's power law offenses. The Bengals and the Browns are power law offenses. We're just like the amount of catchable targets, catchable air yards is so dramatically above and beyond any other offense. And then the Bengals are so hyper condensed with T. Higgins and Jamar Chase that it really might come down to that and then the Bengals have what might be the worst past defensive football. They play each other week 16. And so I see a lot of Browns, Bengals players being in the championship
Starting point is 00:05:15 in your league this year. I love it. And like we didn't even talk about David and Joku who had 17 targets. And you brought up Jerry Judy. Jerry Judy had this insane game where he's been on an absolute tear now several weeks of fantasy viable production. He's a lock, I think. high-end wide receiver two moving forward. Also factor in he's their highest pedigreed receiver. They acquired him in the offseason. They paid him. And they took a lot of flack for giving him that contract.
Starting point is 00:05:47 It actually looks like they were spot on. And he's only 25 years old. So I love the way Judy looks in this offense. I love how you put it with the Cleveland and Cincinnati. And those two teams, it's sort of like you bring up Pittsburgh this week. And a lot of times when you have a quarterback where it's like James, who we probably wouldn't rank him as a top 10 quarterback, even coming off this, he'd be kind of a high end QB2 this week. But it doesn't really matter because it's sort of like a basketball team that presses and
Starting point is 00:06:19 shoots threes no matter who they're playing against. They sort of, the Browns sort of like, and the Bengals, it's sort of like an imposing their will upon the opposing team. Look at Pittsburgh this past week. You know, there's, it just sets off this game flow, Scott, where I don't care. I'm playing my Browns against the Steelers. And I actually expect this to be an over environment where Pittsburgh's actually going to go toe to toe to with them. So it's perfect for us for fantasy. The interceptions, they stink. But hey, in my league and your league, passing touchdowns are four points or six points. So if James wants to give up a couple of negative twos, we'll take it. And also, I will add, the lack of the running game where you're seeing Jerome Ford mixed in just because
Starting point is 00:07:03 Nick Chubb is so cooked, that is also kind of aiding into all these tertiary weapons sort of being in play for Cleveland. So would you agree on that assessment? Jerry Judy, you'd have him as sort of a high-end wide receiver two moving forward? Yeah, I would. And I think if we see him start to separate by Target share, you're looking at mid-range wide receiver one. Yeah. No, I love it. I think I think you're spot on. And this is also, like with Jerry Judy for people playing in dynasty leagues, you know, I could see them going out and drafting a wide receiver this offseason. But at the end of the day, Judy is set. He's got contract insulation. He's in a situation where he's thriving. And he's playing the best football of his entire career. You have to remember,
Starting point is 00:07:49 this was a very highly drafted big time prospect coming out of Alabama, who was sort of a disappointment early in his career. Now is looking like he's getting a second lease on life fantasy-wise. So we love it. We're going to take a quick... Shout out to ask because, you know, when I was doing our big average separation score article, I was just looking at Judy's separation metrics
Starting point is 00:08:11 and they were just so off the charts. I wrote a bunch of words on him, but I ended it with Jerry Judy is probably the best player you could possibly trade for in Dynasty leagues right now. You want to guess what his ADP was at the time I wrote that article? gosh, at the time you wrote that article, I bet you it was like 13th round. Wide receiver 65. There you go.
Starting point is 00:08:36 I mean, like, that, I know Judy's been great, but it's also like on no planet should he, especially after that big contract ever be in the wide receiver 65 range. Yeah, people like, it's almost like people were holding it against him this off season. Like in retrospect, that should have been something where he was pushed up, at least into like wide receiver four land, even with Amari Cooper on the team. We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to do a little bit more victory lapping because speaking of ass, we were on the Ladd-McConkie train for weeks.
Starting point is 00:09:09 We're going to talk about ass. We're going to talk about fantasy points data and how it led us to identifying Ladd-McConkey as a potential late-season league winner, which he is looking like right now. Welcome back to the School of Scott Fantasy Football podcast. Theo Greminger with Scott Barrett every single week. And if you're enjoying listening to us or watching us on YouTube, make sure you're checking out Scott's Everything Report. A lot of what we discuss on this show comes directly from Scott's weekly article, must read material. Even if you're very much in the know, you're going to find something that can help you win in fantasy football.
Starting point is 00:09:48 And all of the data that we're talking about, including ass, comes from fantasy points data. check that out as well. Scott, let's talk about it, though. This was sort of like a slow drip with Lad. We liked him as a prospect. He had the draft capital we were looking for. Lans in a situation with a team with the most vacated targets in football. So it was sort of like a perfect storm. But we also had sort of like red flags where it's a Greg Roman offense. We thought it would be like the Stone Ages. And early on in the season, it was sort of that. But there has been improvements in the passing game. And there's also been more of a decision to target Lad and really separate him from the pack of sort of middling talents there. And we finally saw it this past week.
Starting point is 00:10:35 He leads all players at every single position in target share and first read rate. Unbelievable for Ladd McConkey. This could have been a monster, monster, monster game, but he gets knocked out of it. But from what you saw in terms of like the first half, basically it was like the first half. The guy breaks the Chargers record for receiving yardage in the first half. Then unfortunately gets knocked out with a knee injury. Your thoughts on what lad is shaping up to be.
Starting point is 00:11:07 Unbelievable performance for him. He's second among all rookies right now in receiving yardage. Yeah. So this is a player I was very high on. My model is very high on coming out. And then, I don't know, through the first five or six weeks of the season or so, you know, we're looking at the underlying metrics. We're looking at the yards per route run, the average separation score. And we're saying, okay, this could be one of the top, you know, most valuable draft picks you could have made or picked up off of waivers.
Starting point is 00:11:40 But these two things need to happen. one, the chargers need to stop being World War II era levels of run heavy. And okay, we got that. But then the second thing was he, his target volume is like fine. I don't think he had, yeah, he didn't have more than six receptions in any game heading into this one. The target share numbers were like, I don't know, mid-range wide receiver three levels. And so again, you look at the underlying metrics like Uber elite by yards per route run,
Starting point is 00:12:11 top three in man ass, which is my favorite thing to say, average separation score against man coverage. And it's like this is a, and you look at Quentin Johnson dropping balls, you look at Josh Palmer doing nothing. And you're saying, this is a player deserving of a wide receiver one ask target share. We're 30% target share. These other guys aren't doing nothing. He catches everything thrown his way. And so if that were to happen, Ladd-McConkie would break leagues. And then what did we see last week? Oh, boy. It was absolutely glorious.
Starting point is 00:12:46 It was a 50% target share, the second highest of any player in any game this season. It was his first time over 26% since week four. Like you said, he had over 100 yards at halftime. The next closest receiver on the team at the end of the game, Quinn Johnson with 12 receiving yards, 78% yardage market share best by a rookie in fantasy. he points data history. And so all this, like this stupid injury pisses me off. If not for that, it would just be like the most glowing victory lap plus hype train on Ladd McConkey as a league
Starting point is 00:13:24 winner. I am a little bit worried about this injury. It does put a slight damper on things just because he had such an extensive injury history in college. Coach Speak kind of puts him as questionable to play this week. So again, a slight damper on, but like if he's okay, we get more, you know, you practice in full today. No, I think this is going to be a player who proves to be one of the most, like at the end of the year, we look at win rates. So like play most common players on championship winning teams. And I bet on McConkey being like one of those top 10 players. Yeah. And it's, it's funny because you mentioned he's got the second highest target share of any player on any given week. And the number one was actually another rookie. It was Malik Neighbors
Starting point is 00:14:10 who had like that 64% or early in the year. So this wide receiver class, little off the show sheet subject, let's re-rank the wide receivers for this class after seeing them now for an entire regular season, Scott. We'll go Malik Neighbors 1. I don't think we're going to argue about that. But is there, who is your number two wide receiver in this class right now? It would be BTJ. It's BTJ. Okay. Yeah, I don't think. think you're expecting that, but it would be BTJ. Just so we're, McCocky's up there, no doubt. But you look at, um, what BTJ was doing prior to that injury that's, that's really plagued in these last few weeks. And don't forget, there's also,
Starting point is 00:14:52 uh, you know, Trevor Lawrence in and out. But, um, he was putting together what might have been the most efficient rookie season, or one of the most efficient rookie seasons in recent memory by yards per route run, which is like a really predictive metric. And if, you look at that list, I tweeted it out, you know, I don't know, a month ago. It, it was basically like one, Justin Jefferson, two, Jamar Chase, three, BTJ, four, A.J. Brown. And it's like all the absolute studs. It's a really predictive metric. And so he's, he's probably a player who might have dropped in dynasty value just because of the offense imploding, no Trevor Lawrence. And so, and because of that injury.
Starting point is 00:15:35 So I think that's how I would have it. Who would you have? You know, when I look at Marvin Harrison, Jr., I think a lot of the issues this year have been on the team, the way that they've utilized them. We're going to talk about him in a moment. We'll get your reaction for Harrison Jr. But we saw him get the double-digit targets this past week.
Starting point is 00:15:57 I don't know. For me, it's just I know that I think Adunze is number five. like Roma Dunez-A's five for me and I think two three four it's not his fall I I still like it the the dude has the second most uncatchable air yards by a landslide Caleb Williams has been the worst deep ball passer in the game and like that's been his role he's getting open I think he leads the team in in separation win rate it's really just like not a good role for him on that offense I so like that's that was one of the big talking points from me this offseason was that this was one of the most overrated wide receiver
Starting point is 00:16:40 draft classes in recent memory a great threshold was 2.0 career yards per route run and this year we've seen we're like only two players out of like a sample of like I don't know 110 hit and it was D.K. Metcalf, freak athlete, Terry McLaurin, freak athlete. And also, D.K. had, like, a bunch of injuries obscuring his profile. And, yeah, and so you look at this, there's all these round one, two, three wide receivers who failed to hit that benchmark. The only one who looks good right now is BTJ. And with BTJ, it was, well, he's an early to Claire, so I don't know you, and he just barely missed the threshold. And he's a freak athlete. But everyone else on that list has been a major disappointment.
Starting point is 00:17:28 And then you have those Radwan wide receivers who, you know, I think I look really good for the most part. No, it's overall, I think it's a very successful top heavy group. For me, it's sort of like when I see a player who we think has lost a step, dominate these sort of targets and volume over the last few weeks with Keenan Allen versus Adunze, you usually see the opposite this time of year where the younger player starts improving upon his fantasy statistics. So for me, it's not really, it's not that I hate Adunze. I think it's more like the other four have flashed so much. And even like it is sort of a disaster for Marvin Harrison Jr.
Starting point is 00:18:11 In many ways, based on where he was selected at ADP, the guy still has seven touchdown catches. And now we're starting to see him get the high level of targets. He's getting the coach speak. And then obviously Ladd and BTJ have been very, very impressive. And Malik Neighbors is a guy who I expect to be a top 15 pick next year in redraft and looks like one of the more talented players in football. So really fun top of the wide receiver group. And then when you factor in Brock Bowers along with those guys,
Starting point is 00:18:41 very impactful group. Who, by the way, like profiled as like right there with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Neighbors, if you pretended he was a wide receiver. And that's exactly what you're seeing. But, but yeah, Marvin Harrison, Jr., Malik Neighbors, Brian Thomas Jr., Romo Dunezay, Ladd-McConkey, feel great about those guys. Everything after that is so rough. Xavier Worthy, Xavier Leggett, Keon Coleman, Jalen Polk.
Starting point is 00:19:09 Shout out to the ask God, Adonai Mitchell. I don't know that it's his fault. He's getting open, but it's just not an offense that's conducive to fantasy points. But, yeah, there was an interesting deal. tour. I'm glad we took it. Yeah. And before we close this out, let's just finish off with your thoughts on Marvin Harrison Jr.'s performance from this past week. So it was one of these things where if you're on a loaded, had a loaded roster, Marvin Harrison Jr. might have been in like a flex spot. He might have been potentially on a bench team for very strong wide receivers if your team
Starting point is 00:19:43 was loaded. But then we get the coach speak drop at the beginning of Sunday. And I love this because everything's so amplified where everybody's on X, they see the quote go out that the passing game is running through Marvin Harrison Jr. We're going to get him going. It was everything you wanted to hear from Gannon when you're talking about today's game plan. And we're like, okay, we're getting a Marvin Harrison Jr. game. And then it was like a slow buildup. He ends up putting up a pretty nice scoring line. And we love seeing the target numbers. But I thought you had some interesting takes in your everything report. about like the first read rates. Your thoughts on basically the performance, and is this something that's going to be something we can depend on
Starting point is 00:20:28 for the next four weeks, or is this something where he could let us down as early as this week? Yeah, first of all, I don't know that I believe that the coach speak was real. Like the way it was like framed was like, coach, you took this player top five and you barely target him. What's the plan with Marvin Harrison Jr. this week? And it's like, oh, yeah, yeah, we're going to get him the ball. You know, in fact, the offense is going to run through him.
Starting point is 00:20:53 And you certainly didn't see that in the first half. The dude was, what did you have, two targets in the first half? Yeah, it was very slow starting. People were victory lapping the fate of the coach speak. And then it was sort of added up at the end. Yeah. And so he had a season high 12 targets, but okay, Trey McBride also had 12 catches. And you had 12 catches the week before that.
Starting point is 00:21:13 That's kind of what I've been talking about and everything report is like McBride is the one in the more valuable role. He is like the PPR cheat code role, target hog role. Harrison, not really that. More of just gets a bunch of deep shots, intermediate shots. I think there's an easy way to fix this. The dude is leading the league and fantasy points per route run on shallow and intermediate crossers, which are like easy routes designed to just get your wide receiver the ball in space. And they're not doing that. And you look at what happened last week,
Starting point is 00:21:49 nothing really changed. Like, it was, it was just his fifth highest first read target share of the season. His, um, percentage of routes coming short and intermediate, like the lowest it's been all month.
Starting point is 00:22:04 Um, I think it was really just a function of Arizona, which is another reason like, not terribly bullish on Marvin Harrison Jr. uh, had far and away their highest. PROE pass rate over expectation of the season. But like that's not who they want to be. Last year, the rank bottom three in pass rate over expectation. This year, the rank bottom three
Starting point is 00:22:25 in pass rate over expectation. This is a really run heavy offense, far more than it gets credit for. And then on top of that, I think Kyler Murray is pretty overrated as a passer. So I don't see this as like an amazing environment for him. He has zero screen targets, design targets all year. like that that makes no sense to me like for when you take a wide receiver this high you want to get the ball on his hands get him going but at the same time m hj was never a great yak guy we we had i had interviewed jim nagy and like that's why he had malic neighbors ahead of it was like you can't you can't teach yak either have it or you don't neighbors has it harrison junior is great at so many things but that's not him and so uh there's a chance that's kind of
Starting point is 00:23:12 of just who he is throughout the rest of his career where he's especially like in the in this john gannon offense with kiler murray where there's a lot of volatility week to week you get those spike weeks but when he doesn't go off it's it's it's pretty gross yeah i mean he could end up being it's sort of some parallels to like a young t higgins uh yeah that's great which is sort of very disappointing and i you know t higgins obviously our guy but when you think about t higgins you as like a year two guy, the hype and enthusiasm. Like when Marvin Harrison Jr. was drafted this year, it was like, this is a guy that can challenge C.D. Lamb, challenge Jamar Chase, challenge Justin Jefferson.
Starting point is 00:23:56 That was sort of the narrative. And now it's anything but that. So yeah, I think it's a lot on the team, but it could also be on the player. And I think it's also another, like, if you want to get like, you know, from a psychological perspective, there was a lot of people saying at the time, if it was like, you know, Marvin, whatever, and we didn't have his dad being such a great player, maybe neighbors would have been the consensus wide receiver won by more people. That was considered something like, not like overly bold, but slightly bold to go against consensus there.
Starting point is 00:24:28 So a lot of lessons learned this year. Another lesson learned is we shouldn't be necessarily fading Mike McDaniel tight ends. We're going to talk about Jonu Smith and his potential to be a league winner at the tight-end position after a short break. At Capital One, we're more than just a credit card company. We're people just like you who believe in the power of yes. Yes to new opportunities. Yes to second chances.
Starting point is 00:24:56 Yes to a fresh start. That's why we've helped over four million Canadians get access to a credit card. Because at Capital One, we say yes, so you don't have to hear another no. What will you do with your yes? Get the yes you've been waiting for at Capital One. Welcome back to the school of Scott. And Scott, we had all sorts of narratives this offseason. Jonu Smith signs with the Miami Dolphins.
Starting point is 00:25:24 And Jonu last year had a number of tight end one performances in Atlanta. It was an Arthur Smith offense. It was playing alongside Kyle Pitts. But there was some performances from Janu that were very impactful. Now, it was not something where it was like we're set it in forget it, but there was enough there. Jonu signs with Miami, and we hear all these narratives, Mike Jaseki did nothing with Mike McDaniel.
Starting point is 00:25:49 Mike McDaniel literally doesn't use the tight end position. We have guys like Durham Smyth on the field for a Mike McDaniel offense. This is going to be kind of nothing. Role player at best. And Smith was a guy that like certain people were drafting. They liked him as a best ball target, things like that. But it's just been unbelievable wheels up for Smith. he's been so good over like the course of the last six games or so.
Starting point is 00:26:17 This is a guy who is averaging, I got to pull up the exact stat, Scott, but 17 points per game and he's the tight end one overall over, I believe, the last six weeks in overall scoring. And he's tight end two overall in points per game over the same stretch. This is a player who has thrived in this offense, while we've seen some disappointment out of the wide receivers. Your thoughts on Jono Smith, and I'll say it sort of reminds me a bit of last year, Scott, where we had the young tight end who was smashing in Brock Bowers.
Starting point is 00:26:52 Last year, it was Sam Leporta. And we had the very highly drafted tight end who was smashing in terms of the volume and doing very well in most games. I would say Trey McBride would be the Travis Kelsey in this situation. but the two guys that won fantasy manager's money were David and Joku and Evan Engram. This seems like Johnny Smith could be this year's Injoku or Engram in the playoffs. I think that's exactly right. That's how I wrote it up.
Starting point is 00:27:18 You led off with, yeah, there's a lot of, there were a lot of narratives this offseason. One narrative you didn't hear is that Johnu Smith was going to be who you drafted Tyreek Hill to be. And that's exactly what we've seen. This is far and away, the clear number one. of this offense by Target Share, first read Target Share, design targets, by targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:27:45 He ranks top three among all players and yards per route run since the buy. Everything you want to look at it. This is the clear number one receiver for the Miami. And like, that's a good thing. And it's working. Miami leads all offenses and passing yards, passing touchdowns,
Starting point is 00:28:02 pass a rating over the last three weeks. absolutely crazy. I'm thinking back to when Arthur Smith was in Atlanta and we all called for his head. We called him an idiot for playing Johnny Smith as much as he did instead of just giving Kyle Pitts a 100% snapshot. Looking back in that now, it's like, wow. And so yeah, just Tyreek Hill, I think he's a little dusty. I think he's lost his step. He's a below average player by ass when he was always top 10 every single year of his career before this one. He's also not, and what was so great about him was like he would, he would be routing up cornerbacks intermediate and deep, and then he would be getting
Starting point is 00:28:47 a ton of screens to keep his fantasy floor high and from an NFL perspective, take advantage of his speed and yak abilities. That's gone. That's all going to Janu and Devon Achan. And again, it's working. The offense is better off for it. crazy stats since their week six by. Jonu Smith and Devon Aitchan both ranked top three among all players at all positions
Starting point is 00:29:11 and fantasy points per route run. Tyreek Hill ranked 79. And so like, I think you called it. I think, I think this is just this year's Evan Ingram, this year's David and Joku. And if that doesn't sound too exciting to you, like keep in mind over their last five or six games,
Starting point is 00:29:26 they were putting up mid-range wide receiver one numbers at the tight end position. That's a position. We're typically happy to get high-end wide receiver for production. So that really has a tremendous amplification effect. So, yeah, John is Smith, man. You know, I loved him as a best ball pick. Can't say I ever expected him to be the new Tyreek Hill in this offense. Yeah, and it's so many lessons learned.
Starting point is 00:29:51 And I'm sure we'll reflect on this in the off season. But we're continually finding tight-end production out of guys drafted in like the tight-end two range. It happens every single year. And I think being able to identify those players is going to be really a key for winning in fantasy. Because you get these tight ends who get put into a system where they can thrive. And Jonu now is like he's already at career records for receptions, career records for receiving yardage. And he'll potentially break his touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:30:24 That's going to be a little bit more difficult because started the year out sort of slowly in that department. but he has three touchdowns in his last three games played. But the numbers are just insane. 28 ppr points, 23 ppr points, and 21 ppr points in his last three games played. Just an unbelievable year for him. And a guy that we can really lean on. I mean, he's in the flex spot for a lot of fantasy managers now, let alone the tight end position.
Starting point is 00:30:53 So we're absolutely rooting for Jono Smith. And this week they play the New York. Jets. And the Jets, just about everything that could go wrong for them has gone wrong for them. And of course, we get the incredible usage for Brees Hall in the week preceding their by week. Then we get this injury news that Brees Hall is dealing with a knee injury. And this is, of course, coming out of a by week. So you hate seeing that. And Brees Hall ends up getting 12 carries this past week. We saw a early touchdown for a Jets backup running back.
Starting point is 00:31:28 but it was Isaiah Davis and not Brailleen Allen. So Braylon Allen's been a guy that we've discussed earlier in the year. It's a guy that I'm very fond of skill-wise. I know you are as well. And it's sort of like the narrative is if Briece Hall were to go down, Braylin Allen would be a guy that would be a high volume fantasy producer who also can catch a few passes here and there. So he would have really a high ceiling for a handcuff.
Starting point is 00:31:55 The Isaiah Davis touchdown, I think is tilting for people. If Brees Hall gets shut down, and there's a possibility for that with the way the season's rolling out for the Jets, do you think this would be something where we'd have to temper our expectations for Allen? Or would it still be wheels up for Allen? Where are you at on this one, Scott? Because I think a lot of people are tilting. Yeah, I mean, Breeze Hall was like nowhere near close to 100% per Jay Glazer and like a number of other accounts I trust. And the dude still got a 61% snap share. So I think until you see like an Aaron Rogers get shut down and Assas Gardner shut down, like that's a signal then that it's like, okay, now we probably see Braylon Allen, the team wants to get an extended look. But no, when you're this far removed from playoff contention and your star running back is hurt and he gets a 61% snap share, I think you're good until potentially that happens. But I think we tend to overstate that.
Starting point is 00:32:56 that, I think. You know, teams just like full on shutting it down, like all their star players when they're removed from contention. I mean, if that happens, yeah, then Braylin Allen's exciting. I think he's worth like a waiver stash and deep leagues just on the off chance. He gets that bell cow roll, but not terribly concerned with it right now. Yeah, it's one where, yeah, I agree with you that Allen needs to be rostered. And I don't know. I might be a little bit more worried. I just think that things could could rapidly start declining for the Jets in terms of multiple players sort of being shut down. You've got the Aaron Rogers stuff up in the air where he could potentially shut himself down. And then if Rogers doesn't play, does Devante Adams have some
Starting point is 00:33:42 like phantom injury for the rest of the rest of the year? So I don't know. I mean, I mean, so like Rogers like refused X-rays. Like he should have been shut down months ago. And that didn't I think there's like a lot of pride on the line. Ego, maybe some people would say. Teams tend to, I look at this every year for DFS, you know, motivation. And teams really kind of tend to just play to win no matter what up until about the final week of the season. So that's myling, but you never really know. Let's talk about Jemir Gibbs. Is Jemir Gibbs in the doghouse?
Starting point is 00:34:21 had the really unfortunate fumble in the Thanksgiving game against Chicago, which turned out to be a super entertaining game. Obviously, we had the Matt Eberflis situation at the end. But Gibbs, this is a player that we were super, super bullish on heading into Thanksgiving. David Montgomery has been banged up, but David Montgomery gets 24 touches. Gibbs only gets 11. And then we had some social media stuff. Where are you out on Gibbs? Maybe break down. the situation for everybody. And do you think there's anything there in terms of him being in the doghouse? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:58 So David Montgomery had his highest XFP share of the season, highest percentage of the backfield in terms of expected fantasy points by like raw volume. And that was despite coming into the game badly banged up with a shoulder injury. And then Jemir Gibbs, like, posted a TikTok where he leaked Detroit's, terminology for the various plays they're calling. Apparently, this is a big deal. David Bakhtiari is like, this is really bad. And then Dan Campbell was asked about it,
Starting point is 00:35:34 and I don't know, he seemed pissed off. And he was asked about it again more recently. And he was like, oh, you know, like, if we lose after having that leak leaked, we don't deserve to win. We think we could beat anyone. I don't know. I think there's nothing to it.
Starting point is 00:35:48 It's just worth a mention. this Jemir Gibbs is in the doghouse narrative because there's so much upside and potential to this backfield. It's the most valuable backfield and fantasy by XFP or raw fantasy points. But it's not breaking leagues because it's a literal perfectly evenly split 50-50 backfield by XFP. If it were 60-40 for either player, that player would be ranked behind only Saquan Barkley and fantasy points per game or potentially first if Gibbs keeps his efficiency. If it were 70-30, it would be Lidani and Tomlinson S production. But because it's 50-50, nothing's, you know, they're both low-end RB-1s.
Starting point is 00:36:32 So it's just the potential should that change. I've been arguing it should be Gibbs because he leads all players in EPA per carry, EPA per rush. And like that happened on Thanksgiving. The dude had like twice as much yards per carry as Montgomery. it seemed like they were riding the cold hand instead of the hot hand. And so, yeah, just to keep in mind that potential should this move from like a 50-50 to a 60-40. Yeah, and what do we need Jemir Gibbs for when we have Bucky Irving, who's getting the Jameer Gibbs usage that you would love to see?
Starting point is 00:37:06 Irving has been unbelievable. We saw him go for 152 rushing yards. And Scott, what I thought was super interesting with Irving was this was a back that was sort of labeled as a smaller, on the smaller, side, more of a third downback, more of a satellite back to some. But this is a guy who handled 25 carries. The only other two running backs who had 25 or more carries this past week were Bejohn Robinson and Jonathan Taylor. You're like classic big Belkow back. So what Irving is doing is truly unbelievable. How excited are you about him for the rest of the season? Yeah, Irving was a player I really struggled with through various points in the offseason.
Starting point is 00:37:49 When I wrote my model up, I was like, if he was 15 pounds heavier, he would be my favorite running back in the class. But because he's not, and I'm like a major weightist when it comes to running backs or BMIist, I don't know, he was like my RB6 or something like that. But then as the offseason progressed and like once we knew the landing spot, we heard, heard some of this coach speak, I ended up saying, with conviction, Bucky Irving is this year's Karen Williams. And so throughout this season, what have we seen? We've seen hyper efficiency in both phases of the game, but like Detroit, there's this split backfield where Sean Tucker was also getting some goal line work,
Starting point is 00:38:33 but not these last two weeks. These last two weeks were seeing Bucky Irving as basically like if Gibbs had that 60% share instead of a 50% share. We're seeing hyper efficiency. We're now seeing like legit RB1 volume and like Detroit's the most valuable backfield and fantasy, but Tampa Bay is second because they lead in receptions, they lead in receiving yards. And and you know, targets are worth 2.5 times as much as a carry in in PPR leagues. That's that's super valuable, the Buccaneers offense looks legit. And like I said, Irving's efficiency is off the charts, especially relative to Rashad White, who has never been, I don't know, has always been like bottom three in rushing efficiency. So I'm inclined to believe that this sticks. I like Irving as like a low-end
Starting point is 00:39:29 RB-1 at worst moving forward. Yeah. And they also have a great, by the way. They also have a great strength of schedule throughout the remainder of the season. Yeah, and next week, make sure you are tuning in and listening because we're going to dive deep into the fantasy football playoffs, help you find a couple more edges to help you win week one. But Scott nailed it. Like, Bucky Irving is set up to absolutely smash. I think he's on a collision course with a 20-25, like late second round ADP in redraft, which is absolutely significant for a fourth round running back.
Starting point is 00:40:03 And Scott, when I'm on Fantasy Points data, I love looking at the advanced rushing metrics on there. And with Bucky Irving, he's like off the chart on some of these. One very interesting one is yards after contact per attempt. He's towards the league leaders, like up with like Derek Henry on yards after contact per attempt. And then the explosive play of the explosive run percentage, which is runs that go for 15 plus yards, he's at 6.8%. So when you factor in the big playability, his ability to break through contact,
Starting point is 00:40:39 and his ability as a receiver, and he's just kind of like that. Like, forget the metrics, just pop the tape in and watch Bucky Irving run with the football. He's nasty. So I love Bucky Irving. I think he's, it's another like,
Starting point is 00:40:53 this is another offseason topic because you bring up BMI, but Devon A. Chan, Kairn Williams, James Cook, Jemir Gibbs, Bucky Irving all thriving over the last two years, all sub 200 pounds, I think people in like the age of the running back by committee are going to start trying to find more guys like this that can just thrive on the high value touches. And in a committee backfield, like,
Starting point is 00:41:18 Bucky Irving is just a ridiculous weapon for an NFL team to have. Yeah, that's that's exactly right. And from a dynasty perspective, I would be really confident in Irving because like you said, you listed off these stats. He ranks first among all running backs in yards after contact per attempt. He ranks behind only James Connor and mistackles force per touch. This is also who he was in college. I might get this stat just a little bit wrong,
Starting point is 00:41:45 but it was something like if you spotted him just two additional yards after contact on one run, he would have ranked tied with Bijan Robinson for first in yards after contact per attempt and miss tackles force per touch over his previous two seasons. And like, no one else really came all that close after him and Bijan being tied. And those, by the way, are like two of the most important stats to me at a college to pros level. So like, I think he's good, dude. I think he's nice. And don't forget, yeah, in college too, he had like, what, 45, 50 receptions last year. Let the nation, led all running backs last year in receptions. So it's really translating unbelievable. And if you have Bucky Irving, just be excited. You've got a low-end
Starting point is 00:42:32 RB1 for the rest of the season. We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to talk about a couple of quarterback situations and a couple of sneaky players that can help you get through week 14 and potentially make an impact in the fantasy football playoffs. Welcome back to the school of Scott. Scott, we got to touch on a number of these running backs in week 14. And the first one is Isaac Garendo. And I didn't think I'd be having this conversation with you about Garendo, but it was like a really awful situation for fantasy managers. Christian McCaffrey, we knew he was banged up. We sort of had time to take it all in. And we knew he was probably headed to the IR. Then we get this news that Jordan Mason is also headed to the IR. So if you were a
Starting point is 00:43:21 fantasy manager who had Christian McCaffrey and made sure to handcuff him, you're now in a really bad situation because both are going to be unavailable for you for the rest of the season. Next man in, Isaac Garendo. The last time we saw Garendo in an expanded role, it was week eight against Dallas, and he had over 100 combined yards and a touchdown. This is obviously going to be a spend everything you have left, Waverwire moment for anybody where he's available. but what's your enthusiasm level for Garendo this week and the rest of the season? Mid-range RB2. You're talking about like offenses that should just shut everything down.
Starting point is 00:44:01 Like you might be getting there with the 49ers. It is insane the injuries they've been through. Name their top seven best players. They're all dead. Yeah, it's rough. But yeah, I'd say like mid-range RB2, Garando. though, like, I thought it was like really raw as a prospect, but probably a good fit for this Shanahan one cut scheme.
Starting point is 00:44:26 Freakishly athletic. One of the top seven most athletic running backs to ever participate at the combine, according to my metric spork, sport score. I think I wouldn't be surprised if, I mean, is he a Bannaconda is, like, honestly worth a pickup? Like, I was a big time hater on him coming out. I comped him to Tevin Coleman in a derogatory way. But you know what?
Starting point is 00:44:51 Like Kyle Shanahan loved Kevin Coleman. And that might also be a good fit for this offense. I'd say mid-range RB2 and we'll probably know better next week, depending on how many snaps he seeds to Patrick Taylor and potentially Izzy. Yeah. I mean, Isaac Arendo and Izzy Abanacanda in the same backfield is like some sort of like a computerized model decided these guys are going to be good at NFL football with all their speed scores and all this sort of athleticism. I don't know. It's sort of like chasing volume this
Starting point is 00:45:26 time of year. He's even available in like FFPC and FFC where you have like the last waiver wire run. So I do think Garendo might be the last opportunity for you to get RB2 production off the wire. So can't take it with you, Scott. Got to spend it on Garendo for better or for worse. but it'll be very tilting to a lot of people if it's a Patrick Taylor split who's going to go for free off the waiver wire. So I guess a little game theory is grab yourself some Patrick Taylor just in case. You got to also temper your expectations about this offense. Today's price is not the same as yesterday's price when it comes to the San Francisco 49ers. One other running back who had sort of an out of nowhere top five performance was Najee Harris.
Starting point is 00:46:14 Naji Harris finishes as the RB3 overall on the week. And this is a player that we were sort of, I was at least anticipating a little bit more of a split level production with Jalen Warren for the rest of the season. But Naji Harris actually had a tie for his season high in receiving yardage, which was really nice to see. How enthusiastic should fantasy managers be about Naji Harris moving forward? Yeah, I think it's, I think it's tough to say. with Arthur Smith, you never really know, but like obviously trending up in a major way. This was game script that was better suited towards Jalen Warren, but it was Naji Harris, who had his highest carry share since week one. I think Jalen Warren set out that game.
Starting point is 00:47:00 Far and away, his highest target share, the season 15.8%. And then he missed some time in this game, and it was Corderole Patterson who relieved him. So definitely something to monitor if this happens again next week, you could be looking at like a surprise low end RB1. I'm not I'm not ready to say that with conviction just yet, but certainly monitoring this and a really positive sign. Yeah, I'm actually kind of excited about Anaji. And like this sort of usage, this sort of production for him was really,
Starting point is 00:47:33 really nice to see. And this is an offense that obviously is also trending up. We saw George Pickens have his lowest target share of the season. and Russell Wilson still was highly, highly productive. So we're sort of betting on Pittsburgh to continue improving offensively, and that could kind of bode well for Najee, at least giving us startable fantasy production. He's also a player that will be a free agent this offseason, Scott.
Starting point is 00:47:59 I think someone is going to pay Najee Harris with his sort of pedigree and his ability to stay on an NFL field, maybe more than some people are anticipating. So you could get some long-term value there as well. A player who was a free agent signing this past off-season, in who continues to put up solid fantasy numbers is Tony Pollard. How excited should Tony Pollard managers be in this must win week 14? Yeah, pretty excited.
Starting point is 00:48:24 He played on 72% of his snaps. That was the most in any game. Tage Spears has been healthy. And we've seen, you know, it's like sort of a jackal and hide situation with Pollard. In four games without Spears, he's averaging over 100 rushing yards per game. And, you know, this couldn't, come in a better time. Titans play the Jaguars twice over their next four games. Jaguar's easy top three matchup for any running back. So yeah, really bullish on Pollard. Hopefully this sticks and
Starting point is 00:48:57 they kind of just decide to move away from Spears. Pivoting over to the wide receiver position, thoughts on Nico Collins. This is back to, is Nico Collins back to being like the league winner? this is now back-to-back weeks of him scoring right around 20 PPR points, and everything's sort of shaping up for Nico to make a big impact for really the rest of the season after their by week. Yeah. In full games this year, he's averaging 116.7 receiving yards per game for perspective. The only wide receivers this millennium to eclipse that are Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, and Josh Gordon. So I comped him to Julio Jones earlier in the season.
Starting point is 00:49:41 I got some flak for it. And yeah, there you go. He's putting together a Julio-like season. And the Texans, since he came back, are far and away the league's most pass-heavy offense, nearly 12% pass rate over expectation. I see their defense is kind of taking a big step back. And they're going to face the Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens, Titans. You know, it looks to me like those.
Starting point is 00:50:07 those might all be shootout. So I really like Collins as, I think, the wide receiver, too, behind Jamar Chase, but ahead of everyone else throughout the remainder of the season. Yeah. And I remember when you first made the Julio Jones comparison. And, you know, a shout out to the haters out there. Scott was right on this one because his 17 game pace projections, if you just took his season stats and extrapolated it over 17 games, you're talking about over 100 receptions, over 1,700, receiving yards. And I believe it's eight and a half touchdown catches. So that's very Julio Jones-esque. And Scott, what's funny is all of the best ball bros who sort of stacked up that Houston Baltimore game for week 17, they might actually get it. It's in Baltimore.
Starting point is 00:50:55 The Baltimore Ravens are going to put a tremendous amount of pressure on Houston to sort of keep up with them. This is a game where Nico Collins could actually go nuts against that secondary. Nico could give you a 30-pointer in championship week. So I'm completely with you. When you look at that schedule, yeah, I think he is the wide receiver two rest of the season and a player you should be very, very excited about. Another player who you are super hyped on, and you've also been very sharp with this one,
Starting point is 00:51:23 because we have talked about T. Higgins for multiple weeks, but now it's looking like T. Higgins is shaping up to do some absolute damage in the fantasy football playoffs. where should T. Higgins be considered? Is he a wide receiver one rest of the season? Yeah, he's a top six fantasy wide receiver moving forward. You look at what he's done. He ranks third among all wide receivers and first read target share above Jamar Chase by a good margin. He's hit 30% in each of his last six games averages 20.3 fantasy points per game over that stretch. that would rank behind only Jemar Chase.
Starting point is 00:52:04 And I think last week's performance was honestly the most encouraging to me. You look at 10 targets, 17.9 fantasy points, and it's like, that's fine. But you have to factor in, Joey Porter Jr., probably the second best cornerback in football, shadowed him on nearly 75% of his routes. And so that alone looks great. And then you factor in, Joey Porter Jr. got called for six, penalties. That was the most by any cornerback since week three of 2022. If you're in a league that counts DPI yards would have been an over 30 fantasy points in the day. And I thought it
Starting point is 00:52:41 was really interesting. Mike Tomlin was asked about it. And with some reverence, he said, when we play Shaq, we're going to use our fouls. And I don't know, Higgins, don't forget. So he was one of my favorite basketball targets, partly because he, he was hurt like all of last year. And Burrow was hurt. So you kind of had to throw all that out. But this year, it looks like he's one of the best wide receivers in all of real life football. And now fantasy football as well with Cincinnati's defense being as bad as it's been. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:20 I love that you brought up the Tomlin quotes. And I think that's a very interesting. interesting one about, you know, and when we talk about Mike Tomlin, we talk about one of the ultimate winners and a very, a very sharp coach by all metrics, a guy who's done a lot. And for them to give that sort of respect to T. Higgins, I thought was very telling. And for Higgins this year, it's really been a big, a big step forward for him in terms of what he's doing in terms of every single metric. But really it's the target share and it's the raw target totals. There's been multiple seasons of his career where we've been pounding the table being like, they need to
Starting point is 00:54:03 target T. Higgins more. And now they're finally doing it. He's had four games with double-digit targets in only eight in only seven games played. So T. Higgins has just been a target monster and he's doing it playing next to the wide receiver one overall in Jumar Chase. We talk about Najee Harris, I think one of the biggest storylines of the offseason is going to be where T. Higgins ends up signing as a free agent because this is a player who is showing that he can be 150 target player next year, and he's still
Starting point is 00:54:35 young. So very excited about that one. But yeah, I'm with you. I think T. Higgins, it's very much shaping up to be a great fantasy football playoffs for him. They have that week 16 game against Cleveland. That's going to be a game where there's going to be absolute fireworks. Let's talk a little bit about the Chicago Bears. The offense is starting to show signs of life. They've had three straight games where they played AFC, excuse me, NFC North opponents, and each one has been a very
Starting point is 00:55:03 close loss. Detroit was the most frustrating one. We could spend a whole show talking about the non-timeout call, but let's be a little forward thinking here. What are the rest of the season outlooks for you when you look at players like Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, and certainly DJ Moore. Yeah, it's a little tough to say. So Caleb Williams ranks fourth among all quarterbacks and fantasy points of the last three weeks. Two of the Chicago wide receivers ranked top three in XFP. And so keep in mind, this is a small sample. And then there's some nuance to it as well where, by the way, this all coincides with Thomas Brown calling the plays. Before that happened, And there wasn't a single game where Chicago wide receiver reached a 28% target share.
Starting point is 00:55:51 We've seen a different bear's wide receiver eclipse that number in each of these last three games. And so it's a little complicated. It's also a small sample. Don't forget before this, Caleb Williams is looking like based on the analytics, like one of the worst, not just rookie quarterback seasons, but one of the worst quarterback seasons in recent memory. But anyway, to summarize what I wrote up in this is I'm very bullish on DJ Moore over and above everyone else. I know Keenan Allen has had terrific production, but he's had two of the best possible matchups, a slot-wide receiver could have.
Starting point is 00:56:27 Whereas it's DJ Moore, who the first two weeks, like, kind of look like Leviska-Cannold. He had like single-digit air yards per game. Over 50% of his targets came on design targets, such as screens. And so I was saying like, right now he looks like Levisca, but if he were to start getting intermediate and deep shots, in addition to that, he could be a fantasy wide receiver one. And so that's exactly what we saw on Thanksgiving. It wasn't just tremendous volume, but it was also the screen targets were still there.
Starting point is 00:57:03 If you count plays nullified due to penalty, you would have had either five or six deep targets, which would have led all wide receivers on the week. And so to me, that's the player I'm most excited about. I think you'd be excited about kind of the offense as a whole. But I mean, if that sticks, if this continues, DJ more has like some serious upside. Yeah, no, for sure. And DJ Moore, there was a lot of frustration with DJ more early in the season.
Starting point is 00:57:34 But we've started to see the targets tick up. This is a player who was a top six score last year. So this is a guy who could really turn it around. regain that momentum heading into the offseason. I agree with you. I think DJ Moore is like a high-end wide receiver too in this new Thomas Brown offense. And it's so frustrating for fantasy managers to see him utilize this way when we wanted it all season long. But hey, we're here, Scott. Let's keep this one going. Let's talk a little bit. Like the two of us have talked about Bijon Robinson so many times, his incredible usage. But there could be another Atlanta Falcons skill position player
Starting point is 00:58:11 who's really shaping up to be a smash play in the fantasy football playoffs. Drake London was targeted 16 times. And I think this was very, very telling because we love seeing this sort of usage coming out of a buy week. So your thoughts on London, again, we want to see fewer interceptions from whoever's passing him the ball. But with this sort of target volume, things are shaping up well for Drake London. And week 17, he faces off against a Washington commander's defense that's given up some pretty high yardage totals to opposing wide receivers. Yeah, I'll be honest.
Starting point is 00:58:47 I don't know that I'm as bullish as you are. It's nice to see him separate from Darnell Mooney where they were really tight in usage and volume. But Kirk Cousins looks so bad. Yeah, he's awful. He looks awful. He's completely cooked. So let's pivot over.
Starting point is 00:59:04 Are you benching Kirk Cousins this week? Oh, absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. Zero touchdown, six interceptions, league worst pass rating over the last three weeks. I don't think they're going to bench him. I think what they're going to do and what these should do is just give the ball to Bejohn Robinson on every single play.
Starting point is 00:59:26 And I think that's what's going to happen. Yeah, I mean, I think I think I'm, with you on on both things with drake london as long as he's getting double-digit targets i think think he can overcome uh poor situations because he is a very talented player but for me i'm making the switch i would have made the switch last week and i think the reason that they are very hesitant to not make the switch is the fact that they're playing minnesota this week so you bench kirk kirk kuzons against his former team would just be it's hard to come back from that if you're kirk yeah But how do you bench him mid-game?
Starting point is 01:00:00 What if he goes out against his former team and Brian Flores just draws it up? And we see four interceptions at like halftime. Then you'd bench him. That would be the ultimate insult. So for me, it's like we talked about a dunzae. I've seen some people make this take and curious your thoughts on it. Callan DeBore is having the worst season by an Alabama head coach in over 10 years. Roma Dunzee has done some good things, but he's not exactly lighten the world on fire.
Starting point is 01:00:27 Jalen Polk has been a bust. Jalen McMillan has been non-existent. Was Michael Penick's the reason, like all these guys, it's sort of like the opposite narrative where Washington was actually not that, that talented, but it was Michael Pennick sort of propping everybody up
Starting point is 01:00:43 and he's actually the real, real deal. Do you buy into any of that stuff? Yeah, I do. I think that's real. I think it's legit. It's sort of like the reverse Metenberger effect is what I'm referring to it as. So like the, the, OBJ Jarvis Landry, Zach Mettenberger rookie year.
Starting point is 01:01:01 Like I didn't know anything about analytics, but I was like, why is this max? I was such an idiot at the time, but I was like, why is Zach Metenberger like supposed to go day three? Like, looting his numbers. Like he's awesome. And it's like, oh, no, Jarvis Landry's a stud. OBJ is a stud. And yeah, I think it's just like the opposite of that.
Starting point is 01:01:20 I think Pennix is going to ball out. Yeah, I think this is like, Pennix is a guy who gained. the most dynasty value of any player last week without playing a down. And I cannot wait to see him on the field. We'll see how that offense looks when Pennix takes over. But I wouldn't be shocked if it's Michael Pennix in week 14 as your Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback. This has got to end. And if you just take away the two Tampa Bay games away from cousins, I mean, what on earth, like he looks so good against Tampa and everybody else, it's just awful. So we're going to buckle down here and like dive in deep on playoffs and matchups.
Starting point is 01:01:57 up until the championship week. And then after that, I think you and I are going to slowly start segueing into Dynasty a little bit. And you've kind of heard that on today's show. And yeah, I'm thinking back on Pennix. What's really interesting is, like, I've always said, like, the numbers don't matter for evaluating college quarterbacks. Like, there's nothing I've really found to be predictive.
Starting point is 01:02:17 But what I was saying this obviously is, like, if there is anything that's predictive, it's really sack avoidance and turnover avoidance. And based on the numbers I was looking at, it was saying like Bo Nix and Michael Pennix weren't just two of the best quarterback prospects in this class, but like historically great. And so I don't know, now that's a little interesting to revisit with Bo Nix playing as well as he has.
Starting point is 01:02:46 Yeah, no, for sure. And this is a class that's really, really hit. It makes me even more excited to see J.J. McCart, and Michael Penix. Based on how, you know, it's like one of these things where it could, it's like a gravitational pull where they could collectively all be very good. And maybe this is a class where they all hit and there's no bus. It's been really, really promising stuff.
Starting point is 01:03:07 And the one of them, the, if not the main driver of the success of the class, has been Jaden Daniels. And we talked about him last week. But Scott, now we have back to back top five weekly performances for Daniels. He's had five top five performances on the season. This is a player that is now projected to be the second most successful fantasy quarterback of all time behind only Cam Newton in 2011. He's going to pass by Robert Griffin III, which is very significant in the same franchise, and he's set to pass Justin Herbert as well. How confident should fantasy managers be on Daniels moving
Starting point is 01:03:50 forward. You would have him ranked as the QB what for the rest of the season. It's Lamar 1. It's Jaden 2. And they're kind of like the same player. Overall, I mean, is he the overall 101 in Dynasty Startups? Super Flex drafts? I think so. Yeah, I think you nailed it. It's, it's Jaden Daniels because of the age and the number of hits. Lamar Jackson has taken. Lamar Jackson's a perfectly reasonable pivot if you don't want to go that way. But it's one of those two guys. if you're drafting a Superflex team next year. Daniels has been awesome. And we get week 15 in New Orleans,
Starting point is 01:04:27 where you know he's going to get a lot of love with the LSU people, all in attendance. And then week 17 against those Atlanta Falcons. So completely with you on Jaden Daniels. We're almost at the end of the show. I want to get your a quick week 14 player or two that maybe is sneaky. The player that I think I've got to get your opinion on is Will Levis, because there's so many quarterbacks on their by week this week. There's a lot of people, including myself, that are having
Starting point is 01:04:59 to stream Will Levis. Now, Levis had three out of his last four games with two touchdown passes. There's been some positive moments there, and he's got a great matchup this week. Where are you at on Levis as a week 14 sneaky start? Yeah, I don't think I would start him. But I get it. I mean, numbers look good these last few weeks. He's playing a bit better still taking a ton of stacks, but whatever. It's a great matchup. The really gross quarterback I talked about, and this is really from a DFS perspective,
Starting point is 01:05:34 was Aidan O'Connell. Like, if you don't play DFS, I feel like most of our listeners don't. But this might be Aidan O'Connell a week. He's just so cheap. He just had the best game any quarterback has had against the Chiefs all year. It's a nuts matchup this week. And it's one of these hyper-concentrated offenses with Brock Bowers and Jacoby Myers just sucking up all the volume that that sort of stack for tournaments looks really good, but he's cheap
Starting point is 01:06:02 enough for cash. So that's kind of, I did not expect to write as many words as I did on AOC in this article, but I did. One other player, we'll close it out with this one. We've talked about for two weeks now, Adam Thielen, as a player that, It could be a sneaky edition. Hey, I'm glad you're listening to School of Scott because you're going to make some money here with your Adam Thielen edition. Adam Thielen gets 10 targets, catches eight of them, has his highest receiving total since week six last year.
Starting point is 01:06:33 And Scott, that was a second touchdown as well. So the guy should have had two touchdowns gets one. Where are you at on Thielen, your enthusiasm level for the rest of the season? They play Philly this week, but Bryce Young looks good. Carolina looks good right now. Dave Canales effect is in full effect. Adam Thielen is a wide receiver what for the rest of the season? Oh, I don't, I don't want to make me put a number on it.
Starting point is 01:06:58 Okay, a flex. You're happy to have him in your flex? Yeah, I think so. I think so. It's what did he do the first 10 weeks of last season? He was 10th in fantasy points per game. That was a much worse offense. And so like obviously the dude is 46 years old, but he hasn't played a lot of
Starting point is 01:07:18 So maybe, you know, maybe he's a little fresh, a little fresh. He, he only played on, on 70% of the team snaps last week. He kind of, I think he only put together one full practice. So it's like possible that even continues to climb. But he looked good, man. Like he's looked spry on every single target and reception I've seen. He looks good. And like you said, Bryce Young is playing legitimately good football.
Starting point is 01:07:46 So I'm bullish. Yeah, I am as well. And I'm sure we're going to talk about Bryce Young next week. Rubber meets the road this week against Philadelphia. We'll see how he does against a big time team. Scott, what do you have going on the rest of the week? Just a bunch of DFS stuff. Scott Barrett's Slate Breakdown, outside the box.
Starting point is 01:08:09 And I'll be in Discord if you need anything from me. What about you, Theo? Well, I have my dynasty article coming up at Fantasy Points. you're checking that out every single week. Highly recommend coming back to the YouTube channel and checking out, Scott, all the DFS stuff you guys are putting out. Shout out to Hilo. Shout out to all the DFS content creators over at Fantasy Points.
Starting point is 01:08:30 I checked it out last week. It's not going to DFS lineup or two. This time of year, I like kind of playing some of these slates. So we'll see. Maybe I'm going to. I got rocked this week. It was one of those weeks where it's like, if you listen to everything report, like you would have done way better than if you listen to my DFF. Well, to be so how it kind of works is like
Starting point is 01:08:51 I talk up the chalk and like, here are the best plays and then you play those in cash. And then for tournaments, sometimes like I'll have to fade the players I love. So I didn't have a lot of Bucky Irving. Didn't have a lot of, I don't know, the plays we were on earlier in the week who were more obvious. But if you had Bryce Young and Adam Thielen, you would have done really well. Yeah. And if you're a DFS player, Make sure you check out the remaining subscriptions, plans over at Fantasy Points. Scott, you have the DFS stuff. The NFL premium, there's no upgrade price. It's all with the All-In bundle, right?
Starting point is 01:09:26 Correct. That's right. So if you're, you could make some money in DFS for the rest of the year. Go check it out. And stick with us here at school, Scott. We're going to bring you a lot of hard-hitting fantasy football playoff advice next week. We're almost at the end of the road. Let's go get that winning week 14.
Starting point is 01:09:41 We'll see you back soon.

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