Fantasy Football Daily - Buffalo Bills with Joe Marino | 2023 Franchise Focus Podcast

Episode Date: June 19, 2023

To kick off the 2023 edition of the "32 teams in 32 days" podcast series, Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) welcomes in the great Joe Marino (@TheJoeMarino) of the @LockedOnBills podcast to answer questions and set expectations for the 2023 Buffalo Bills. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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if you score more fantasy points. Hey everyone, it's Joe Dolan, and welcome to the 2023 franchise focus podcast series at FantasyPoint.com. Franchise Focus has been something we've been doing for a number of years, and really what it started as was a team preview article for all 32 teams in the NFL with a fantasy slant. And last year, I decided, and it ended up being a pretty successful endeavor, outside of the fact that I recorded half the podcast with COVID voice.

I decided to expand the franchise focus idea to go to the source. And what I opted to do was reach out to a podcaster, analyst, beat writer, individual for all 32 teams, somebody who covers that team for a living, somebody who is just intimately close to those teams. And I thought it really went well and I think people enjoyed it. It gave me new perspective. It gave me new takes. There were some sleepers I learned about that I didn't think about. There were some breakout candidates that I learned about that I didn't think about. So I really wanted to do that again, and I'm excited that over the next six weeks.

I am going to be able to bring that to you. This is week one of the series, and what we're going to do is we're going to start with the AFC East, and we are going to go AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, AFC West, and we're going to go alphabetical order within those divisions by city name. So we're starting off the podcast series with AFC East, and over the next six weeks, We're going to hit all 32 teams with an article. Some of them will be free. Some of them will be exclusive to Fantasy Point subscribers.

But the podcast will always be free. There's going to be an accompanying podcast. So when you see the podcast or see the article, you know there's going to be the counterpart to that, either on the website or on the podcast feed. I'm really excited to bring the 2023 franchise focus podcast series to you. Without further ado, let's kick it off with the AFC East. Welcome to the

23 franchise focus podcast series here at fantasy points.com. My name is Joe Dolan. This is the first of 32 podcast over the next, oh, six or so weeks. And I'm so thrilled that I'm welcoming in a great guest here. He is Joe Marino. He is a friend of the site. He is a friend of Brett Whitefield. And he knows basically everything there is to know about the Buffalo Bills.

Joe, he is the host of the lot. Locked on Bill's podcast. He's also co-host of the Locked-on NFL Scouting podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at the Joe Marino. He is as good as it gets. Oh, and Joe, by the way, you're a published author on the Buffalo Bills. That is a, that's a goal of mine. I don't know what the heck I'd write about, but if you like the Buffalo Bills, I'm absolutely certain you know who Joe Marino is. Joe, welcome to the show. Eager to talk some bills with you. Hey, Joe, good to be on with you. Didn't realize this was the first of the series. So we have to, uh, set the bar really high today and have a great discussion about the Buffalo Bills.

You know, it's like a movie, how they film it out of order. This is not the first one I'm recording. Okay. But this is the first one that we are publishing because we're going, we're going division and alphabetical order and starting with the AFC East, ergo the Buffalo Bills are first. And they're a really interesting team to talk about. I know I told, I mentioned in our DM yesterday that I wasn't going to be too combative about the Stefan Diggs thing. It's got to be kind of annoying for Bill's fans. What's going on, man? Like, what's up with Stefan Diggs? I think it's a good question. And I don't think Sean McDermott did himself any

favorites or favors, excuse me, by coming out on Tuesday and saying he was very concerned about the situation and then kind of backpedaling. Not kind of. Definitely backpedaling yesterday with going up and clarifying and said there's a lot of misinformation out there. That's completely not fair. Well, Sean, that's because of you. You're the one that came out and said, you're very concerned. How is anyone else not supposed to be very concerned? And then he he kind of goes through this narrative that if you just would have said on Tuesday, it would have really alleviated a lot of the issues there. But I mean, the bottom line is something weird's going on with Stefan Diggs. He's not happy about something. It could be just the

way the season ended as a team. And it could be the way that it ended for him, right? The market shared, the targets, the opportunities within the offense over those last six games really, really decreased a ton for Stefan Diggs based on what he did in the previous nine games, right? And so I think the combination of his role going down, the team, the offense got a little bit hard late in the season as Josh Allen tried to play through that elbow injury, a lot of vertical throws, a lot of inefficiency. They still scored a lot of points, but obviously it's stalled out against Cincinnati in a very disappointing loss, only 10 points at home. He saw the blow up on the sideline. He leaves the facility pretty abruptly. Has some criticism towards the team.

in some national media spots that he did, and then he's been quiet. And of course, everyone's been waiting for him to get back into town. And well, we all saw how that transpired during the week of mandatory minicamp. Yeah. It's just such a strange thing. I mean, but there's no way the bills are moving on from him, right? They not only, they can't afford it financially, but they also can't afford it personnel-wise. Yeah, that would be a devastating loss.

I mean, surely if the bills got to the point where they had to move on from Stefan Diggs, there are moves that they would make. You'd have to think DeAndre Hopkins is the first phone call, right? You figure out a way to get that done, whatever cap manipulation, whatever levers Brandon Bean's got to pull. You got to pull them, right, to get that player replaced. But no, Stefan Diggs has been monumental since coming to the bill since 2020, three years in a row with Josh Allen of, you know,

really unprecedented receiver production that's ever been seen in Buffalo. You know, even Andre Reid as a Hall of Famer never matched what, what Stefan Diggs has been being able to put up over the last few years. Obviously, he's just a big part of what's going on. He's the focal point of the offense, a high volume target and one that deserves it. I mean, he's number two in targets. I know we talked about the decline in targets end of last year. Since he came to Buffalo in 2020, he's second in the league in targets, right?

So he's getting the football a ton. It'd be a big loss. But I think if we take it at face value, McDermott said he believes it's resolved. confident in that. I think it's on hold. You know, I think we'll see what happens when Diggs actually has a media session, you know, which inevitably will happen at training camp. And we'll see what happens then. But at least for the time being, we can label it as resolved. But I do believe it's kind of on hold. So you mentioned the offense kind of getting stale at the end of last year. And I think that was part of Stefan Diggs's gripe. And to put a statistical, to just kind of put a

statistical bow on what you were talking about, over the first night. games of last season, Stefan Diggs had 99 targets. Over the last nine, including playoffs, he had 74. And then in the playoff game against Cincinnati, it was the first time all year he caught less than half of his targets in the game. So there was something kind of going on. And let's just talk from more of a macro perspective. From a scheme perspective, what do you expect will be different about the bill's offense this year? Didn't make a ton of moves. on at receiver, obviously they drafted Dalton Kincaid, but from a scheme perspective and we'll get into those moves,

what do you expect is going to be different about the bills? I think quite a bit. Ken Dorsey took over the offense with Brian Daibble heading to the Giants last year. And while Daveal, or excuse me, while Ken Dorsey was the quarterbacks coach previously, and there was a lot of continuity with those relationships, it was his first chance to be a play caller and ever, right? And that's a big leap for anybody.

I think he learned a lot. But I do think that the offense changed a lot throughout the course of last year. I think early on they were counting on some things that didn't come through for them, whether that was OJ. Howard as tight end two. And I think that they wanted to have more 12 personnel. That didn't come to fruition. They moved on from Cole Beasley and signed James and Crowder to replace him slash Isaiah McKinsey. And Isaiah McKinsey's just not a volume slot target.

And James and Crowder broke his ankle very early in the season. So they missed out on that. Zach Moss wasn't the RB2 that they were expecting. Spencer Brown was a disaster at right tackle. And so I think some of these things that they expected to be staples of their offense, it really didn't come together. And then as it's kind of hitting its stride, Josh Allen has a throwing elbow injury and he plays through it.

And that obviously impacted the way that the team attacked defenses. And really they leaned into the vertical components of the passing offense. And I think that was out of necessity because Josh Allen and that throwing elbow, the torque required to really hit short passes to put a lot of strain on it. and I think they had to lean into some of the vertical throws down the field. I do expect a more balanced approach, not necessarily run pass ratio. That's not at all what I mean by balanced approach. I mean that throwing the football and being more consistent,

challenging all levels of the field than taking advantage of what they have now in Dalton Kincaid as what Brandon Bean is labeling as Cole Beasley in a tight end's body. He's a tight end, but he's really going to be a big slot receiver. And restoring that to this offense, I think is absolutely critical because Josh Allen needs that that guy in the slot, that middle of the field target, that one that can win on choice routes, the guy that can keep Josh in rhythm, right, and just know, hey, you can hit the easy button, he's going to find leverage and get open and catch the football. And I think that makes Gabe Davis better, right? And Gabe kind of a low, a low efficiency type target,

a lot of vertical stuff. And there's a lot of criticism out there. Well, why don't they throw the ball to Gabe Davis on shorter routes? Well, that's because he's not a quick separator, right? There's a limitation to the skill set. And, you know, you want him to, to be a guy that wins with size and ball skills down the field. And I think the presence of that Dalton Kincaid slot player allows Gabe Davis to kind of get back to more of what he's been doing. But I think you're going to see more 12 personnel from this team and that coming with James Cook as your lead running back. And I think that unlocks so much for the scheme because you could show 12 personnel and dictate terms to a defense. And all of a sudden you're getting, you know, base potentially.

You're getting three linebackers. All of a sudden, you motion James Cook out. you went from 12 personnel to empty. And with a lot of skill in the past catching game, and I think that could just put a lot of stress on a defense. Obviously, Josh Allen, a guy physically who can access the entire field with his arms and, of course, his legs. And I just think you have a recipe here to put a lot of stress on defenses. But I think 12 personnel, more spread concepts and being versatile with this personnel,

I think is kind of the wrinkles you'll see this year. There's a lot to unpack from what you just said. and I think it speaks to the number of changes. Maybe not person, maybe not individual personnel-wise we're going to see, but scheme-wise from the bills. First and foremost, let me just highlight this for the people. The bills, according to Fantasy Points data,

were the, played the third lowest amount of 12 personnel in the entire NFL last year. They just extended Dawson Knox. They just drafted Dawson, Dalton Kincaid. I mean, that's going to go way up. And, right, like, if you have Dalton Kincaid in the slot, you said, Brandon Bean said, Cole Beasley in a receiver's body, in a tight ends body,

but you can't exactly put a small slot corner on him. So it does, it does change things, makes the bills a little bit less predictable offensively. Now, I also want to go to what I think were some of the biggest changes they've made on offense, and that's with the offensive line. A lot of resources, interior offensive linemen, they drafted Osiris Torrance, Connor McGovern they brought over from the Cowboys. Does this signal maybe, Joe, a shift in the run concepts that the bills want to run this year?

Yeah, I do think so. I mean, last year they started off the year wanting to be a wide zone rushing offense and had this really athletic offensive line. And you thought they would really tap into that lateral movement skill and try to run the ball wide zone. Well, that didn't really take off. And then in about midseason, they shift more and more into a gap rushing. scheme and running out of spread a ton. I think that's one of the core things that they like to do is run the ball out of spread. When you get box counts that are dictated because Josh Allen's your

quarterback because you could play offense with 11 players, it allows you to dictate terms in a lot of ways. But I think that this year, I think you're going to see more of what they became last year with gap concepts with using bigger people. You know, you mentioned Osiris Torrance as a second round draft pick. I'm not sure if he's in line to start this year at right guard. But it's certainly a trend in that direction. You're talking about using Dalton Kincaid a ton, right? You gave a first and a fourth round pick to get this guy. I'm sure that there's going to be a big plan for him, you know, as an insert blocker.

And they did a lot of insert blocking with Gabe Davis, right? I mean, he's motioning in and blocking playside against defensive ends. You'd think that would be a better result with a guy like Dalton Kincaid as opposed to a wide receiver. So that plus, I mean, Devin Singletary has led this team in rushing yards each of the last four seasons. He's a Texan. James Cook takes over this backfield with a completely different room behind him with Damian Harris coming over from the Patriots. Naheem Hines, what does he look like now that he's had a full off season with the team? And then of course, the ageless Latavius Murray, who just no matter where he is, the guy has been productive. No matter what the circumstances, he finds a way. And so you have an interesting backfield makeup with more skill sets, right?

More variety there. And I think there's just a lot of a lot of different ways the bills can end. deploy their rushing offense. But I think at its core, spread gap schemes. And then of course, there's the Josh Allen factor. I still think he's going to run the football 100 times this year. I want to talk about that backfield too. I've been doing my research on the bills. And they brought in Damien Harris, which I think is pretty interesting. Obviously, they're very familiar with what Damien Harris can do. But in 2021, when Damien Harris had that breakout season with the Patriots, he scored 15 rushing touchdowns. Over 80% of his runs were on gap scheme run. So that looks like it's going to be a shift.

You said James Cook is taking over this backfield. But do you anticipate that there's going to be kind of a pretty big difference between what they're going to do with Damien Harris and what they're going to do with James Cook? There has to be. Those are polar opposite skill sets when you think of James Cook and Damien Harris. But I think what they're hoping to get out of Damian Harris is what they were hoping to get out of Zach Moss. It just never really happened with the bills. Maybe it will with the Colts.

I think he played a lot better down the stretch with Indian. But you think about helping Josh Allen, right, and taking things off of Josh Allen. And if that's on my mind, one of the first things that I'm considering is those short yardage carries, right? I mean, Josh Allen was the bill's short yardage back. And I still think that's going to be a big part of what he does. But if Damien Harris can help the bills from a pass blocking perspective, but also take away some of those power runs that they lean on Josh Allen for, I think that's going to be a big relief. I don't know that he'll have a high volume of rushing touchdowns. I think he might lead the bill's running backs and rushing touchdowns.

That would make sense to me. And maybe take something away from Josh Allen, who I know from a fantasy perspective, the running component has been really, really good, especially the touchdowns. But I do think Damien Harris can give them a lot of what they hope to get out of Zach Moss. I want to talk about Gabe Davis. Obviously, he was a guy who was getting a lot of hype in the fantasy markets last year. He gets hurt at the beginning of the season. And Sean McDermott has talked about how much this affected him.

could you see that on film he had the high ankle sprain i think he suffered it in week two could you see on film that he was limited and the fact that they didn't do a ton at wide receiver does does that indicate that maybe they believe that there's a bounce back coming for gave davis i'll tell you sean mcdermott and brandon being love gave davis i mean they hype up his work ethic they say nobody outworks gave davis if there's ever an issue we know he's going to work through it i mean i mean it's it's crazy how much they rave they rave about the guy um he had a decent year in terms of volume stats, but I think that Gabe, you mentioned that injury early on of the season. I don't think Gabe's been ever been a very dynamic route runner. And so like if you watch him on

tape, I still, I think you see the same limited rock runner that you've seen at Central Florida and in his first two years in Buffalo. While I'm sure that ankle injury did impact him, and we've heard that, you know, I'm just, I'm not sure what more there is to unlock from Gabe Davis. I think he is who he is. size, ball skills down the field. And that doesn't really translate well to a volume target. If I'm not mistaken, he had like 106 targets last year. And I just don't think that's a comfortable world to live in if you're the bills. I think you'd like that to get down around 70 to 80 and get those other 30 to 40 targets

distributed to a more efficient player. Hello, welcome Dalton Kincaid is your slot option. And so I think that you can use Gabe and get a lot of production out of him, more similar to what he did in 20 and 21, which I think is the right role for Gabe Davis, but I'm hopeful that the presence of Dalton Kincaid, plus, I mean, there has been some additions to this receiver room and Deonté Hardy and Trent Sherfield, Kalil Shakir in year two, what is that going to look like?

You know, I think kind of taking away a little bit from Gabe Davis is a healthy thing for the Bill's offense, especially now with some of the new answers that they have in the mix. You know, I saw Cole Beasley on Twitter recently talking about how high he was on Khalil Shakir. The fifth round pick last year, I actually thought he was probably a little bit under drafted. I thought he had a chance to go on day two.

The bills were cross-training him last year. They were using them as both inside and outside. He didn't get a ton of work, flashed a little bit when he did. This is a guy from a fantasy perspective, though. I've been drafting in like the 15th and 16th round. I'm like, look, the bills didn't do anything at wide receiver. I understand they brought in Dalton King Gabe.

Maybe Gabe Davis isn't great. Is there a chance Khalil Shakir takes a pretty big second-year leap here? Joe, one of my biggest questions here is of the third receivers, not third option of the passing game, third receivers. We know Diggs is one, Davis is two. I think you have this mix of Kalil Shakur, you have Trent Sherfield, and you have Deontay Hardy. And I think I could talk myself into any one of those three having the most opportunity of that group. A lot of versatility between all three of them. They can play inside and outside. But a lot of difference, you know, a lot of differences in the skill sets. And I wonder how much of it's going to be game plan specific. What I'm, saying here is I think that's going to be a nightmare from a fantasy perspective. I mean, really, I don't know that any one of the three is going to be a super high volume guy. I don't know how balance it's going to be, but I could talk myself into any one of those three being meaningful for this football team. And I think when you, the real football X is an O scheme versus the fantasy side, I think it's going to become frustrating to look at it through those two lenses.

I plan on wrapping up all of these podcasts by asking my, my, my guest is if there's a low end player on this team, you wouldn't be surprised, becomes an impact fantasy football player. Obviously, Dalton Kincaid, they drafted him. We know that he's expected to be an impact player for the bills. Maybe it's one of the three receivers you just discussed. Who would that player be on the Buffalo Bills, Joe, if you think somebody who could come in and actually put up meaningful statistics that might not be on the tip of the average fantasy player's tongue?

Well, I think you can eliminate. Everybody knows about Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs. there's probably a lot of expectation for James Cook is the RV one, although I'm not sure how attractive the bill starting running back is in the fantasy world. And Dawson Knox seems to be a pretty solid tight end. To me, I do have to go back to one of those threes and those three players, Sheffield, Shakir, and Hardy. And you're backing me into a corner.

So I got to pick one. I'm going to pick the one to Bill's drafted. I'm going to go with Kalil Shakir. I think you're doing a smart thing there, Joe. I'm not sure if every week he's going to be a big time performer, but go back to the playoffs last year. I'm pretty sure Kalil Shakir let the team in receiving he gets the Bengals and had a pretty big role in that Dolphins game.

In fact, he had the one drop down the field. He would have had over 100 yards if he caught that vertical pass that was really far. I mean, he just couldn't control it through the ground. But I feel like there's some a little bit, he's a leg up in terms of time on task, right? I mean, he didn't get a ton of volume last year. I think he only had 10 catches in the regular season. But I think he was on the field for over 30% of the snaps, right? So he was out there.

And I think that's going to set himself up well to, have a leg up on those other guys this year. And obviously as a draft pick, I think any team always wants to lean into those players. But there's just a lot of ceiling there, a lot of versatility. I know the bills got him in the fifth round. I graded them in the third round.

You mentioned yourself. I kind of thought of them as more as a day two guy. And, you know, I think if the bills can get something meaningful out of him and then enjoy that production while he's on this rookie deal, that's what this team needs, right? They need production. It's an expensive roster and getting more contributions from players on rookie deals is critical, especially as you kind of forecast things forward and Gabe Davis is in

a contract year. And well, do you really want to pay him? Can you pay him? I mean, whatever you want to say about Gabe Davis, he's probably in that 12 to $15 million a year range. Can you really afford that when you're paying digs what you're paying him? When you're playing Knox, what you're paying him, and you're going to pay a third guy north of 10 million a season to catch a football. I think Colos Shakir emerging this year would obviously help the team this year, but also in a long term So Kalulia Kira will be the name that I'd point to. We kicked off this series with an absolute banger. His name is Joe Marino, Locked on Bill's podcast and the Locked on NFL Scouting

podcast, an NFL draft expert, obviously a Buffalo Bills expert. Follow him on Twitter at the Joe Marino. Make sure you go to Amazon and get his books if you're interested in the Buffalo Bills. Joe, it's been wonderful talking to you. I'm going to reach out to Brett Whitefield and tell him that I love having your company. We're going to have to do more together in the future. Joe, it's been wonderful having you. Thank you so much for joining me.

I enjoyed it. Thanks for having me as well. And really enjoy what's happening with the website and the data, the data suite that's been launched. I'm in love with all of that. So it's been really, really cool to see that come together and wishing everyone a lot of success. I appreciate it, Joe. Thank you for doing the pitch. So I didn't have to.

Thank you for joining me, guys, on the franchise focus podcast here. We're going to be six of these a week until training camp starts. It's time. It's the 2023 fantasy football. season. I'll catch everybody tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.