Fantasy Football Daily - Carolina Coaching Fiasco and Rising Upcoming Free Agents | Take Talk Podcast

Episode Date: November 29, 2023

Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7) and Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) discuss the dire situation with the Panthers, some upcoming 2024 free agents who have made themselves a lot of money in 2023, and preview their favorite Week 13 matchups. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS WITH CODE GURRIFIC25 AT CHECKOUT FOR 25% OFF: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ READ DR. EDWIN PORRAS' INJURY [PRO]NE GUIDE WITH CODE INJURYPRONE25: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://injuryproneguide.myshopify.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome in to another episode of the Take Talk podcast. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield. And with me is my co-host, Stephen, or work Stephen. It's week 12.

No, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, it's week 13. What am I doing? We just wrapped up week 12, the infamous Thanksgiving week. Steve, how are you feeling in week 13? Feeling good. You can really feel the playoffs coming here. I mean, college football, what, championship week is this upcoming week? So that's coming to a finish up until, you know, we get to the college football

playoff. Playoff race is starting to heat up in the NFL, mainly in the AFC, not so much in the NFC. The NFC is a race. a race to see who can whose wheels don't fall off um that fast but yeah it's it's awesome it's exciting i mean a lot of we're starting to see some teams kind of figure themselves out and others who have no idea what they're doing there's a lot of have i have no idea what they're doing going on right now in the nfl a lot actually you know what i'm going to throw you a curveball we didn't talk

about this pre-show at all, but maybe we should be talking about this more. How many head coaching vacancies do you think there's going to be when it's all sudden done? Because I think we can get to eight. You could probably get like, let's, you could, I mean, you can say the Giants, potentially. It's on the table. On the table. The Raiders is already. Raiders are the Panthers already.

Yep. Bears are very possible. Chargers. Yeah. That's a given. Patriots? I mean, I think it's a, I mean, it's a non-zero chance. It's higher than zero. Jets are probably safe.

Washington? Washington, I think if they finish out the season poorly, that could be bad. I mean, not the Buccaneers. Would the Buccaneers be in part? Yeah, I think Poles is for sure, huh? I was just to say, you think that that's a hot seat? So that's, I mean, I already lost count. I mean, the Falcons, if they stumbled on the stretch, maybe.

Yeah, Arthur's coaching like he thinks he's safe. I think he does that. I think he would do that no matter of the situation. It's his ship and he's going down with it no matter what. He's a good captain. Exactly. So that's what, one, two, three, four. At nine possible, I think.

Five, six. Yeah. I mean, yeah, this could be a real ugly offseason for head coaches and just a big boom for, you know, potential head coaching candidates. Because it doesn't feel like they're like in previous years, I feel like there's a bigger pool of guys that you know that are vying for head coaching spots just because it's a lot of retreads that kind of are in coordinator positions. I don't feel like we're really there as much this year. It would be a lot of new talent, new faces, new head coaching candidates that would come up into the ranks. Except for the Carolina Panthers. What are they going to do? They're not going to get some young hot shot to come there?

Not anymore. They're going to. Ben Johnson already presumably told them no last year with the circumstances they're an Now you're staring on the barrel of a busted one overall pick. You don't have any draft capital this year. That's a really unattractive situation and presumably an overbearing owner. And I don't care what anybody says. There's no way that entire room was unified in their pick of Bryce Young.

I think that's hogwash. Yeah. I mean, that seems to be the news of the day is Tapper's conference, press conference, about this whole entire thing and how he kind of just did 50. minutes of saying absolutely nothing. Oh, and the fact that everyone is running with, oh, the Panthers were united, that just tells me that they weren't. Like, you're selling it too hard, you know.

And that's, that's, and I hate to get down this rabbit hole too much because grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter this year right now. But he comes out and he's like, yeah, we were thinking about trading down for number two because we thought that Euston would take Bryce at number one and we would take CJ at number two. But we were all united. how does that make any sense how does that make any sense yes why not i mean if somehow strouds the guy that you're like targeting in that in that scenario if you're trying to get more draft capital and you're still trying to target cj stroud why would you not take him with the number one pick correct

why would that why would you're why would you be swayed off of taking him with the number one pick if you're very comfortable taking him with the number two pick there's nothing that is the I don't, that just feels like such bad malpractice of like, oh, 100% with your coaches and your scouts and everything, all the work that goes into the NFL draft and, you know, these decision making to put, to even put this story out there, but then to stand by it. Furthermore, Steve. If you, if you were unified, quote unquote, and Bryce Young being your guy, why would you trade back to two? That's, yeah. right or why would you or even let's say it's not trade back let's say it was trade up to two instead of one why i don't know that the fact that that was even a conversation he willingly brought that up was

weird to me you have all the smoke with j mccown and c j stroud remember everyone thought stroud was going to the panthers because mccown and his relationship yes and then oh oddly enough mccown is one of the guys that gets fired which why why right now yeah also bizarre that the interim head coach was making, was making like coaching decisions. I mean, maybe that's the right way to go and maybe it's just clean house. But like,

you mean personal? Yeah, yeah. But they didn't all go out together. Reich was fired and then the interim stepped in and then he fired the offensive coaches, which again, super bizarre. If you're going to clean house. You get fired midseason. Especially when head coach goes down. Usually it's like, cool, we'll keep the, like, yeah,

maybe at the end of the year, you're relieved of your duties now because there's a new coach coming in but to do that right now and the manner in which it was done suggests a rift within the organization yeah but i don't know we don't need to that's just speculate caroline is in a brutal spot going forward i mean i don't envy they're fans i don't envy what i don't envy the decisions there i don't even know if it's going to be a decision this off season it's just going to be who they can get in there you know what i do by us. Godspeed to the person that takes that job. Well, it's going to

have to be a guy who maybe similar to even Frank Reich where I didn't think Frank Rank necessarily deserved a second chance that quickly at least. But a guy who had a shot and failed miserably and now is going to need a second chance who

probably wouldn't otherwise get one except a team is desperate. And the guy I think would be a good spot. It'd be a good spot for him as Vic Fangio. I don't think Vic's getting a premium job. I think his tenure in quarter was pretty gross. He rested his laurels on Drew Locke and Teddy Bridgewater.

He's doing what Arthur Smith is doing in Atlanta, basically. Yeah. He rolled the dice with that and as is one and only coaching chance. I think this might be a spot or another opportunity for him because, or a guy like that, I shouldn't say just him, but a guy like that

where maybe, you know, he had a shot as a head coach, didn't go well and maybe deserves another shot because he is a freaking defensive mastermind. Yes. And I mean, you're seeing the Fangio influence more now in the NFL than I think you've ever seen before.

Oh, yes. The way teams are running coverage coverage schemes and everything. I just wonder if you need to get an offensive mind coach, minded coach in there. And if that's even, but I don't know if that's a possibility. And it would have to be a retread. And I think more than ever with the way that like Reich went. I think that teams, smart teams and smart owners are going to be a little bit more wary

of bringing in an older retread offensive coach. I think now more than ever you're going to see the big shift to if an offensive coach gets hired, it's a new face, a new name from one of your well-known trees. Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. All right.

Well, we didn't anticipate spending any time talking about that. So we did want to jump into real quickly before we're going to do some previews of some good games coming up this week. But we want to talk briefly about some guys that we think may have earned themselves a little extra payday this offseason. Expiring contracts of mostly rookie contract guys that are just cleaned up. There's three on Baltimore. Steve, I want to start with these three specifically because I think there's a secondary discussion to be had. And that's safety Geno Stone, linebacker, Patrick Queen, and defensive line. I'll just call him a D-Lyman because he kind of does a lot of different things.

Justin Medibuque. Of those three, I think Medabweke is probably the safest bet to change teams and be successful. Yes. I am concerned that I do think Gino Stone and both Patrick Queen will get paid this offseason. I think especially Stone, he kind of came out of nowhere and he's just, he's been awesome. Blum. I mean, blown up. Yeah. Patrick Queen was an unmitigated disaster until Brocon Smith got there to play next to him. Now, you could make the argument there was a developmental curve needed, which we saw in his college tape.

And eventually he got, he would have got there with or without Roquan. I think whatever team signs him, if it's not Baltimore, will have to make that argument within their staff. But I think because of the nature of what Baltimore does, are you a little concerned that those guys change teams and flop? I'm most concerned with Patrick Queen. Yeah. And it's nothing against Patrick Queen as a player. I just think that you need a smart and just kind of had a unique scheme to really get the most out of him. Like, I don't, like, he's not a guy that I think that you want to just sit as a nickelbacker, as a middle linebacker and just play a base, nickel base four three defense.

The way that Baltimore gets the most out of him is they give him an assignment and they, you know, they blitz him a lot. They mug him up a lot. It's a lot of unique assignments, I think, for him. And just the ability of having Roquant Smith, someone who is a sideline to sideline guy and can kind of handle a little bit more as a linebacker and handle a little bit more responsibility is where you get the value out of Patrick Queen. And there aren't a ton of teams that have that type of, that type of steadying force, I guess, is the way I'd put it. and Roquan Smith to pair with Patrick Queen because I think that's what you would need. And so Patrick Queen would be the, like I said, would be the guy that out of all of them I'd be most concerned about. Yeah.

But sorry, go ahead. I was just going to schematically, to your point, like the Ravens basically have like four or five linebacker types on the field at all times. And all of those guys are capable of rushing, passer, or dropping into cover. Now, they do it from their traditional alignment. So Kyle Van Nuoy is not playing Mike. Right. He is a guy who they trust in coverage at times. Right.

Who's Clowny? Clowny's the other one, right? Yeah, because Clowny. Clowny, they'll drop in coverage. They have another one too. I'm not even thinking they sell Bowser, right? Who plays in there? So and then O-A, too.

Yep, O-A. All those guys, they will drop them in coverage. Roquan's great in coverage. So what that allows them to do, though, is just say, You know, what is Queen's blitz rate? It's insane this year, right? It's like, oh, I mean, I don't have the numbers in front of me, but it's absurd. For an awful linebacker, he's got to be near the top of the league and pass rush snaps because he's...

Right. He's getting after it a lot and they'll drop a guy off. Steve has a timer going off live on the podcast. Whoops. It's incredible. Just no biggie that happens. Yeah, so that's why I'm concerned. There's not going to be a lot of schemes that really set Patrick Queen up for success.

You know what would be fun, though. I know Devin White's also a free agent. I feel like Devin White could do what Patrick Queen does, but better. So I love to be Devin White in a Baltimore uniform. He could do it like, yeah, just because of his 5% speed boost that he has on Patrick Queen, it would make them 5% better. A little more physical too. So if he runs into a back or something, he's just going to go right through him.

I mean, we saw it in Bowles' system that's a Blitz-happy system. That's really the only thing he does well for the Bulls system is rush passers. So it's kind of funny. I'd love to see a little switch there. but there's not a lot of schemes. I feel like that's going to favor Patrick Queen the way the Baltimore scheme does. No, and no, it's just that they stunt a ton.

They bring guys from different places every single snap. It's why they're so effective at their like sack percentage. It's why they're effective with their pressure rate. And, you know, when they send it, they get home. And, like, yeah, Madibouquet, I think he could probably jump into most defenses. and excel yeah he is a thumper right now and he's making it happen gino stone i think could excel in other places i don't know how much i don't know how much responsibility and how much you know people like this it's the weird thing with safety interceptions i feel like they come and go it

happened like it's a lot of interception luck to have safety to have like to have like you know, the high numbers as a safety with interceptions. But I think that Gino Stone is good at being where he needs to be. And I think that that can transcend through a lot of different schemes. I think he operates best in a too high scheme. Oh, for sure. You know, I don't think he's, he's not always the guy you want to walk up. Like if you're running to cover three, like a single high scheme,

I don't know if he's the guy that you want to come up into the box super often. Yeah. But if he can go to, you know, a Fangio type scheme, I think he can still excel and play really well. Yeah, and he, that was the, you know, the scouting part of him coming out, too. He played in Iowa. They run, you know, mostly too high type stuff. And he was a split safety, split field safety then. And he is now, yeah, I think he would excel in any fan geo scheme for sure.

Yeah. All right, let's hit these other three really quickly. Jaylen Johnson corner from Chicago dude when he's on the field looks like a legit lockdown corner like Patrick's the pain level we can play man coverage as much as we want we can drop and play zone too he's good at both

he looks awesome injuries the last couple years have been concerning but nothing egregiously bad just you know nicks and bruises so I think I think he gets absolutely paid this off season probably by the Bears by the way

I mean, they should. Now's the time to start, you know, whether you're sticking with Justin Fields or whether you're drafting a quarterback, whatever it is, now's the time to start investing in guys that are going to push you into the next chapter of whatever this team is or whatever it's going to be. So I think that did be dumb to let him go truly. But I think that he probably, you're probably right. I think he does stay in Chicago. Well, they have so much gap space. It's going to be hard for them to justify letting them walk. Another guy that we didn't touch on that Bryce Huff is making,

the tie has made himself a ton of money this year. Yeah. They got a couple guys probably. Yeah. Huff is Vegas, right? Jets. Jets. Oh, my God.

Oh, I was thinking of a meek Robertson. Who's made himself? a good amount of money. Yeah, also has. Didn't make the pre-show list, but also has made himself some money. It's funny, we were struggling to make the list pre-show, and now live on air here,

we're just coming up with extra guys. It's linebackers are a spot right now. Yeah. Scoop up some fat. Like, there's a lot of decent free agents coming up in linebackers. I mean, Jordan Brooks in Seattle. I just don't believe the paying linebackers, but yeah.

That's, and that's, you know, the issue. I think we had this this type of thing with running backs recently too where you were like there's something of tailing out there you can go and get anyone but it's like you don't really want to pay any of them

at least with some of them I mean I haven't as you know I haven't pulled up as a linebacker as a group so there's some edge guys in there you know different value different guys but I think you're starting to see that surplus of talent at linebacker where it's like

okay do you pony up and pay them and hope they can be what they are, where they are currently in your system, or do you keep working with the guys just because there are so many responsibilities with being a linebacker, especially like, you know, inside linebacker, you know, nickel linebacker. There's a lot of responsibility and rather keep continuity within your system and have those guys who know the calls and, you know, usually at the green dot guy is one of those people. Yeah.

Do you keep them in as and just, yeah. go the continuity route instead of trying to bring in new blood and switch it up. For sure, there's also an interesting developmental curve with linebackers to the NFL it seems. This used to not be true, by the way. Linebackers were often perceived as plug-and-play

type players. Yeah. It's taken, like, the new breed of linebacker, it takes them a while. I think it's, we've talked about this before. It's the hard, one of the hardest positions to play in the league. And this is why I don't like paying these guys, because it doesn't matter how good they are.

I should say it doesn't matter. Usually it doesn't matter because you can still make them lose just by, because you can put them in situations where they're not right. Right. With the way RPO's are, personnel, formations, alignments, motions. There's so many ways to exploit linebackers, even the best ones, that they don't really move the needle as far as team building goes at a certain point. You need a good player, a consistent player, a green dot guy, a leader type guy.

But beyond that, the jump from what he brings the table to what like an elite linebacker brings the table, it really isn't that much unless that linebacker is elite in coverage like a Fred Warner. Yep. You just, and we've gone over the list before. There's just a handful of guys that are true needle movers at that position. You don't, again, you don't want guys that suck. You don't want guys that, you know, can't communicate defense to your team. but at the same time it's like

like Chicago for example they way overpaid for both the guys I got this year Tremaine Edmins and the other ones T.J. Edwards T.J. Edwards

like way overpaid for both those guys and T.J. Edwards the guy that you paid the lesser of the two has probably been I mean he's been outperforming Edmins he's looked like the guy

that you wanted him to be at the I think what they signed him for three years, 18 million I think it came out to about the same. million a year. Same deal as Anzolone, I think. And then the admins, they paid more a little bit more.

Trucker, a bit more. There's $20 million. Yeah. And that's where, you know, sometimes it just, you never know who's going to, or, you know, kind of do sometimes know. But like with that, you probably would have predicted Edmonds to be the guy that would have played better, worked out better. But Edwards seems to have picked up a system a lot better.

It seems to, he's taken a little bit of a step in past coverage and he's, you know, playing well. I think he's kind of lucked himself. lucked his way into a couple interceptions, but it's just, again, a part of being in the right spot at the right time. But Edmonds has been okay. Definitely not worth the contract that they paid him, though. Which I said at the time it was a terrible contract. But let's do one more before we jump into some previews here. Let's do Michael Pittman, Jr.

The USC standout playing for the Indianapolis Colts. Now, he hasn't been bad by any means on his rookie contract. but he is definitely taking a step forward this year, it seems, despite a lot of adversity, too, the quarterback situation once again, been up and down, going from Richardson to Minchu. Now,

I think both those guys are improvements over what he's had to work with over the last couple of years. However, just the continuity aspect is tough. How many quarterbacks has Pittman now played with in his career? He's played with what? Rivers, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Anthony Richardson,

and Gardner Minchew? And then that's not to mention any backups in between because of injury, like San Ellinger and guys like, he's literally good with a ton of quarterbacks. Continuity has not been there. Yet he just keeps getting better and better. And a lot of the things I saw when I initially scouted him

are coming to fruition this year. Like really good after the catch. Detail-oriented guy, all those USC receivers and that cluster of players that came out, whether it was Pittman, Amon Ra, or Drake London, real detail-oriented guys. Coach kind of, you know, love these players.

really good at the one game as a blocker. You know, he can do design touches. He can win downfield. Great unscramble drill. I think Pittman's made himself some money there. Yeah. Nominal on scramble drill. Just knows how to work with his quarterback.

They have an innate connection. But he's balling right now, and I think he's going to get paid. I think so, too. He's got this catch radius, which was talked about going into the draft. I mean, it seems to have gotten bigger somehow, which he, like, you know, didn't think that was possible. But yeah, he's the kind of the straw that stirs the drink of the Indianapolis receivers. He's the, he's consistent.

He's, you never worry about him being in the wrong spot, never worry about him, you know, taking plays off, which, you know, India hasn't been, this is the first year they've really been competitive since the Carson Went's year. And even that, they fell down the stretch. But I think what you're seeing the most with Pittman. is that you're seeing a little bit more diversity in his route tree and in the routes that he's targeted at. I think the first couple years, a lot of what he was doing was, you know, a lot of slants, a lot of short, in-breaking routes. And he started to hitch, he got a lot of hitches. And, you know, listen, he still has 23 targets on hitches. And a lot of his work does come in with some RPO stuff just because that's what their offense is based in.

but I think that he's shown that you could put him into a more complex offense. I don't know. It's not fair to say to their scheme, but I think with Gardner Minshu, they know what they have in him, and he's a good RPO quarterback. That's where he excels and don't give him too much time to overthink things. And I think that I, but I think you could throw Michael Pittman into a different scheme

and have him run the full, full route tree. And he wins in a lot of, on a lot of routes. So I think that really he's kind of, he is realizing a lot of his full potential of what we thought he could be coming out of college. Yep. Agreed.

All right. So let's, as I say, name a team that you'd want to see him on. Oh, the Colts? Yep. If he were to leave the Colts, which I don't think will happen, but it's a possibility. Let's see.

Maybe the Cardinals. That'd be a good one. Yeah, although they kind of have him in Michael Wilson, Jr. They're very similar players. True. I'd like to say, I mean, Kansas City would be one. That if they could make him, if they could make that happen, I think he would be the perfect steadying force amidst a volatile group that if they could find and shell out the money,

which would be tough to do. But I think that that would be an awesome spot for him. Yeah. that would be. I think Green Bay would be a nice spot too. Yep. They don't necessarily need him. They got a lot of young guys that are finally starting to play well.

I mean, Carolina could use him, honestly. Carolina would be a great spot. Not necessarily for him, but for them. Yeah, we don't know what kind of offense will be running next year, but presumably he would work. Jacksonville would be a good spot. I think him and Christian Kirk would really pair nice together. yeah because riddley

ridley's a free agent coming up this year there's a free agent i think he's been a little disappointing as far i think he's fine he's still a good player but i don't think he's as good as they were hoping he was going to be yeah i think titman would give them like a true wide receiver one yeah volume you know he's he's almost like ridley and zay jones combined into one guy yeah a guy who can work the boundary as well as work over the middle yeah which red zone threat yeah yeah um all right Let's move on.

Let's jump into some previews, Steve. We've got like, you know, 20-ish minutes left. I want to hit a few games. I want to start with Thursday night's game. I think this is one of the rare Thursday night Ws. I'm actually going to sit down and watch this game, Steve. That's two in a row for Thursday night. If you mean, if you rule out Thanksgiving and then put the actual Thursday night

because the week prior it was Baltimore Cincinnati, right? Oh, you're right. Which that turned into. Yeah. everything that it was. Injury. Yeah. Seattle. Seattle travels to Dallas this week.

That's our Thursday night game. Massive playoff implications. Seattle's wavered of late. They were, what, six and two at one point? Is that true? Yeah. Six and two, six and three, they were leading, tied, tied for the lead, leading the division. And they've lost back-to-back games, right?

Yeah. Cowboys playing their best football probably in, I don't want to be tongue-in-cheek here, but I would say five years, at least what I said. I like. I was just to say a decade. Yeah. Yeah, there were some Romo teams that were really freaking good. They just didn't get it done.

They were right. But probably the best of the Dak Prescott era, I would say. Yeah. And their record doesn't even really show that because I think they're probably better than eight and three right now. Chris Wex going to get super mad listening to this podcast because he hates the Cowboys. But Dak is balling out. And there's no more denying it.

You know, there was a few weeks where it was like, oh cool it's a small sample but he's he's back he looks great um they've finally figured out how to integrate brandon cooks into the offense tony pollard's getting rolling i got some fun stats for you steve since so the last four weeks tony pollard ranks first an explosive run rate third and force miss tackles and second in yards after contact per attempt he is back to what he was last year where you know he was just he was a menace with the ball in his hands and i they finally got him going. The offensive line is exceeding expectations.

Tyrone Smith looks back. Terran Steele's playing really good. Zach Martin's still a Hall of Fame right guard. Yep. I mean, Tyler Smith at left guard looks awesome too. I mean, they are rolling right now. Defense obviously, Doran, Blan, Michael Parsons, both have a defensive player of the year caliber seasons.

It's just insane how good this team is. We said it before the season, Steve. I don't know if you remember. We said that this was. easily a top three roster in the NFL, top to bottom. Yeah, I picked everything with Hines on back Prescott and he's playing great. Yeah, I mean, he's playing at a level that I think he's had in him and you've seen him play in for play at for right.

Just not just the injuries though. Not since the injuries and not this not for this long of a period of time. Yeah. Where you haven't the last, I mean, the last four weeks you haven't seen the. those hiccups in his game. You haven't seen, you know, like this late in the year last year, what was how you started to see some, a little bit of loss in velocity with his arm.

It was, it was, it was crazy. But now, I mean, he looks completely in control of the offense. I mean, they are operating on that every cylinder they can't miss at this point. And yeah, I think you're starting to see him in, some of those second-tier weapons that have value that aren't necessarily starters, but they've found the value for those guys. Rico Donald's starting to get a little bit more burn, and he's showing effectiveness when he gets in. Jake Ferguson is opening up the middle of that path, the middle of that, the field for

Dak Prescott is opening up things for CD Lamb and Brandon Cooks. Really, the only guy that's not doing a ton is Michael Gallup, but they're They haven't even really needed them because, you know, they're, you know, they're also throwing in design touches for, um, turpin that have proven effective. And it's just that's what happens when you start to find your groove as an offense. I think you do start to integrate those guys that, you know, you can get manufactured touches and get big plays out of just because you're not trying to force the basics and you're able to kind of branch out a little bit. And I, you know, they've been beating teams up so you haven't really been able to pick on McCarthy. But I think McCarthy's been doing the best job of his career since the early days of Aaron Rogers in Green Bay. I think you're starting to seize a little bit of innovation from him or not even really innovation, just effectiveness from him, where you thought he was going to be the kind of the Achilles heel of this team for a while.

I mean, Dak Prescott's leading the NFL in completion, percentage. percentage over expected at 5.9%. And that's on an A dot of 8.5, which is 10th in the NFL. Real solid. So it's like the guys ahead of him are an A dot are basically nobody except for Jalen Hertz and Lamar Jackson who are both at 8.6. Yeah. And boy, he just, he knows what he's doing.

He's not trying to operate outside of himself. not trying to do too much. He's just taking care of business and getting it to the guys that can make plays. Yeah. Jalen Tolbert, too. He's got 18 targets the last four games. I mean, he's averaging four and a half targets a game in the last four weeks. They're getting him involved.

Galap's losing playing time. This offensive skill player makeup, it reminds me a lot of the Detroit Lions where you see you have CD and Amanra who are very similar players. I mean, CD's probably a titch more explosive than Amman Ra, but as far as how they're, used and what they do. Very similar. I mean, slot mostly guys that can play outside if they need to.

And then Brandon Cooks and James and Williams have some overlap and skill set. And then Gallup and Josh Reynolds are eerily similar. Kvante Turpin is like their Caliph Raymond. I mean, it's actually kind of crazy. Like there's a lot of parallels. Ferguson's

obviously not as good as Leporta, but, you know, and then the lines have the better running back combo as well with with Gibbs and Montgomery, but it's very similar. I would say even some of their play calling and play designs are similar in a lot of ways. Good offensive lines as well, very similarly constructed. I think Detroit's got a slightly better

skilled group, but Dallas makes up for that on defense because I think they got a good defense. We spent a lot of time about Dallas, though. What do you think Seattle brings to this game? It isn't Dallas, unfortunately, for Seattle. They've not been good away from home. For Seattle, it's just about writing the ship. And it's on offense.

Their defense has played fine over the last couple weeks. They did have to bench, they had to bench Tariq Wollen. And that, you know, I think that's a fall from grace for him. And they're trying to figure out that back end a little bit. But, you know, overall, the defense has played well. It's just this offense has been wildly inconsistent. And it, you know, it starts from the fact that their boom, their boomer busts, run game continues to be boom or bust and a lot lately it's been but more bust than boom and you're

seeing like i mean to the point where sharpeney's out snapping kenneth walker now walkers also hurt right now but yeah but yeah and you know i'd say they think they were starting to move that way even before you got hurt though the run game stuff is so frustrating steve because like gino's not playing well right now and i'm not giving him a free pass but when you are constantly in the third and 10 and third and eight and 39 because you ran twice on first and second down for a combined total of zero to two yards. You're not doing your quarterback any favors. And if they have that mentality going to play Dallas.

And it sucks because Dallas is a team you can run on. But I got to see more early down passing from Seattle. Like I have to see it because Michael Parsons is going to rip Gina's head off. If they get like predictable third and longs like they have been, it's been. It's not rough for them, but offense. Yeah, and it's, I mean, they're not, yeah, they just, you're starting to see JSN is kind of as taking over as leading in targets. And that's just because teams are focusing on Lockett and Metcalf.

And it just, their offense looks disjointed the last couple. And it, even before they started on this mini losing streak a little bit, you can see the bits and pieces of the dysfunction on. offense or the lack of consistency. It's just that they were winning. Now the cracks are starting to show and the losses are starting to pile up a little bit. I don't know how they beat Dallas in this game. I don't think that like for Dallas.

I think so too. Unless like you said, unless they flip the script and they go early down passing and they switch things up, which listen, Pete Carroll's not. want to do that too often. I think that this could be an ugly game for Seattle. Yeah. One thing I want to note about this game, too, typically on Thursday nights,

you get really sloppy football games because it's a short week for everybody. Both these teams played last Thanksgiving, though. So they had a normal week of preparation, minus probably taking a little time off for family. But I think this could lead to maybe a better game than normal on Thursday night, just because, you know, no crazy circumstances here. So it would be nice. Sweet, you're taking Cowboys to win?

Yeah, yeah. Let's do this. I want to do, I'm going to preview one more game, Steve. Yep. And then I'm going to throw another curveball at you after that. All right. So let's go, 49ers travel to Philadelphia in what is likely a battle for the one seed here or one of the battles. Eagles have a two-game lead over the lines in the 49ers right now.

Yep. I think you pretty much bury it right here with a win. Not mathematically, but it would be hard to come back from for the 49ers or Lions if the Eagles, well, because the Eagles would go up, what, four games on them. Yeah. So this is the game of the week, though, by far, easily the best game on the slate. Yeah. Real challenging to figure out.

I'm trying to throw out last year's playoff game out of my mind. It's hard to, though. Yeah. Eagles haven't really ran the ball that well this year. I think Hertz is, hurts, he's a little banged up and it's limited their QB run game, which in turn has slowed down their running back run games.

So I don't know that that's an angle they can exploit as much as they normally would. What do you think? I think they can. You do? I think that it's a lot more of just take Jalen Hertz out of the running game a little bit. I mean, like just hand it off the Swift downhill. Get it to the running backs up the middle and just let them go downhill instead of, you know, incorporating hurts as much. I think that he has his utility in places.

Obviously, if you get a good look like the, you know, the game winning play and things like that where, you know, it'd be stupid not to run hurts, then by all means, go ahead. But I think that just get the running backs going downhill. take out a little bit like you know take away a little bit of the RPO stuff and just have that offensive line working downhill at full speed and I think that that could lead to a little bit better days in the run game because that's I think where you need to beat San Francisco I think you have to be able to get the I think you have to be able to run up the middle on them yeah I agree with that they I feel like San Francisco has been better late it gets the run. Like they completely shut down Seattle, for example, the other day, which sometimes Seattle shuts themselves down. So that's a huge accomplishment. But, yeah.

It's still shutting someone down. It's still shutting someone down. Yeah, I think that's a big factor. The other factor is, is San Francisco, their O line, do you think it can hold up against the Eagles pass rush? And I think that's the question of the game, really. Because with the Eagles offense, I think that it's one of those things where it's inevitable. I mean, you saw it against Kansas City.

You saw it against Buffalo. You've seen it almost every game this year where we complain, we bitch, we talk about the play calling. And it is true. It does cause issues definitively. Yet they still get to 24, 28, 31 points. So I think that Philly, you can book them for, I think you can book them for 24 points. Just slap it on the board right now. And plus or minus, depending on if they get a big play or not, but we'll put them at

the baseline of 24. The real question is, can Brock Purdy in that offense withstand the pressure and put up that same amount of points? Because I don't think you're going to run the ball as much with McCaffrey against the Eagles. I think that it's going to have to come down to being able to throw against them. because that's where their weaknesses kind of lie. You can move the ball.

You can move the ball down the field, passing the ball against this defense if you gave your quarterback time. I just don't know if they can hold up on the edges against these guys. Yeah, or interior, too. True. Carter, I think this could be a really big spot for Carter. Yeah, so the other, for me, this comes down to that. and then on the other side of the ball,

Philadelphia's pass protection. What we've seen this year, and I hate to beat a dead horse because I've mentioned it nine times, when San Francisco comes up against a team with good offensive tackles, they cannot stop the pass. It's crazy.

When those pass-witchers can't get home, they get thrown on. That secondary is not very good this year. I should say not as good as it's been. And I think A.J. Brown and Devante Smith could have huge days if the Eagles pass rushes up to the task. Yeah, and it's interesting.

You've seen some holes in their past projection in the last couple weeks. I think that at least from anecdotally watching the games, Hertz has been under more pressure these last two weeks than he had previously, well, I should say the first half of the Kansas City game and then filtered throughout this game against Buffalo. He's been under more pressure than I'm used to see. seeing him under.

And I think who did, didn't they had, they had an offensive lineman out last week, didn't they? Wasn't late. Lane John's now. Lane is banged up right now. Yeah. So then that's, you know, and that's going to happen when you have one of your best tackles dinged up.

But I think that it comes, it comes out of the past protection for Philly. And I think, I think it's going to hold up. I think there's, there's an special, there's a special amount of hate right now between these two teams if you if you've been seeing some of the lead up with debo and some of these other guys especially the same fran side saying that you know their win against them was basically fraudulent it didn't mean anything they're going to come in and kick their asses i think that philly responds to that type of stuff

even more than normal and so i think i think i think i think philly ends up winning a close scheme. I think it'll be, you know, like a 24, 21. It's just, and I, because I think that Philly, possibly Dariusleigh, or someone can take advantage of one of the Brock Purdy hiccups that's bound to happen against a good defense. Right. Crazy stat for you, Steve. Since week six, both of these teams, both these quarterbacks rank inside the top five in pressure dropbacks percentage. San Francisco's third

at a rate of 40.1%. So that old line is not protecting Purdy the way they want. Philadelphia is fourth or Hertz is fourth with the rate of 40%. Now what's crazy though is Hertz is a little more self-induced. He does hold the ball a lot longer than Purdy.

His average time to throw in that Spain is 2.85 seconds, which also is second in the league. Wow. So their time to pressure, though, is still reasonable. You know, it's still, you know, I would say top, I think it's top, right at the end of top 12th in the league. So you think, you know, some of the pressure hurts kits is definitely self-induced. But to your point, they haven't been as good.

Weeks 1 through 6, that pressure rate was down at like 31%. I mean, that's what was killing them against Kansas City in the first half the other week. They were getting absolutely burned up front. I mean, that's why Chris Jones had, what, three sets? but then you saw them kind of turning it around and that's how they were able to mount the comeback is that they shored things up a little bit. They started, I think, really focusing double teams

on Chris Jones and having everybody else go one-on-one and that's where they started winning on downs. Again, I don't want to beat a dead horse because I know we've talked about it, but it is really relevant. Brian Johnson's scheme, the way he designs plays, he puts so much on Jalen Hertz's shoulders to deal with Blitz.

all of their answers for being hot rest on Jalen Hertz to excrete pressure. There is no, they're not building in hot reads, there's no checkdowns. It's really frustrating to watch sometimes because there's so many plays where he gets blitzed and he just has no choice but to bail and try to make something happen, which he takes a lot of hits because of it, just a lot of, you know, dead plays because of it as well. So that is definitely relevant. in the end steve who are you taking in this game i'm taking philly especially now that i see the last six weeks that san fran's given up four and a half yards per carry on zone concept runs yeah that's

interesting and i think that that's with the seattle game included and they were you know yeah it's bad so you don't get i mean you don't get to see san franz run defense often and i think that you're going to see it more they're going to have to play that more than they've played it all year just because so often San Fran jumps out to a lead. Not a lot of teams are scared to run against them, I think, sometimes. Philly's not going to be afraid to run it. I think they win this game. I think DeAndre Swift goes over like 100 yards.

I think that it's going to be a ball control. I think Philly's going to win with ball control. I don't think it's going to be. I think they take a couple of shots deep as they're one to do. But I think they really just grind down San Fran and kind of just beat them do a pulp. But I think it'll be, I think it'll be a good game, but I think Philly ends up winning out. Awesome. I agree. I'm picking Philly in this game. Before we get off, so we do got to go, but I'm going to speed round you. We're going to go through the rest of the games.

I don't want any commentary. I just want you to pick the winner. Yep. Deal. Broncos at Texans. Brancos. Started with the hardest one. Yeah. You're going Broncos. Okay. Chargers at Patriots. Chargers. Lions at Saints. Lions. Falcons at Jets.

Jets. Cardinals at Steelers. Steelers. Colts at Titans. Titans. Dolphins at commanders. Dolphins. Panthers at Bucks.

Gross. Bucks. Browns at Rams. Rams. I think that's the right pick. Chiefs at Packers. Chiefs. Bengals at Jaguars.

The Jaguars. Nice. Sweet. Every week, guys, you can find my picks over at FantasyPoints.com and Tom Brawley's pick article. I think it drops on right before the Thursday night game on Thursday. So check that out. Those are Chiefs fix, though.

Steve, we'll check back in with you, see how you did. Yeah. I agreed with most of yours. I was to say there were there were a couple that you know I didn't feel as good about and it was more of a going off vibes pick big time vibes pick but uh you look at the right company for picking on vibes all right but no I feel I feel good about most of those especially some of those close matchups I think that they swing the way that I chose that's also why would I pay why would I bet against myself right right right all right guys that is to do it. Thank you for listening.

I don't know if you've gone to data. dot fantasy points.com to check out the new QB coverage matchup tool, the wide receiver coverage matchup tool. I just want to, I'll tout the tool for one second before we get off. Last week, Calvin Ridley had our number one coverage

matchup score. Guys, Calvin Ridley has underperformed this year pretty much the entire season minus a game or two. A lot of people reached out to me and said, Brett, how's it possible? You have Calvin Ridley with the best coverage matchup score in the tool. I just don't see how that's possible.

And then Calvin Ridley, one Calvin Ridley, goes for five catches, what, 89 yards and a tutty, outperformed pretty much his projection by pretty much everybody in the industry. So the tool is not going to help with projections necessarily, but it will help you find an edge with matchups, is what I believe. So go to data.com, check out that tool. Sign up for a subscription today. still ridiculously marked down because we're way too generous.

You will not regret it. No. And that's it. We are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.