Fantasy Football Daily - Cincinnati Bengals with Jake Liscow | 2023 Franchise Focus Podcast

Episode Date: June 26, 2023

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) welcomes Jake Liscow (@JakeLiscow) of the @LockedOnBengals Podcast to analyze one of the AFC's top contenders, the 2023 Cincinnati Bengals, from a fantasy football perspective. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hi everyone, it's Joe Dolan, and this is the franchise-focused podcast series at FantasyPoint.com. We're continuing this week with the AFC North, and we started with, the AFC East and over a six-week period, I will be interviewing 32 different people, 32 different beat writers, analysts, podcasters, who are really close to each of the NFL teams. And the object of the franchise focus podcast series is to glean useful fantasy football information from people who would know these things as we head into training camp and the 2023 NFL season. They're an educational process for me and I always like to get as much information as I possibly can.

so I decided why not just record these interviews, why not record these conversations, and hope that the listeners can glean some information as well. Again, we are heading into the AFC North in this section of our podcast interviews. We've already done the AFC East. I hope you enjoy. I hope you subscribe to the podcast feed. But without further ado, here's my next guest talking about an AFC North team. We now have yearly guests on the franchise focus podcast here at FantasyPoints.com for the second consecutive year.

Jake Liskow from the Locked-on Bengals podcast is here to talk. What else? Cincinnati Bengals. That's what you talk about on the Locked-on Bengals podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at Jake Lisko. That's L-I-S-C-O-W. Jake, you're talking Bengals from the Pacific Northwest. Nonetheless, you're as good as it comes to talk Cincinnati Bengals.

High expectations yet again for the Bengals this year. Glad to have you back on the show. Yeah, thanks, Joe. It's going to be another year of talking about a moment. mostly exactly what you think they are football team from a fantasy perspective, but things are a little bit different. There are still some things to talk about here. You know, when a team has the expectations like the Bengals have, I think fans, maybe even media members, tend to overreact a little bit to some of the needs on the team.

But I still think, despite the improvements that the Bengals made up front last year, we know the offensive line is was their Achilles Seal in the Super Bowl two years. years ago. I think football outsiders metrics had them pretty much middle of the road in 2022. So it was stepped forward, but nonetheless, still not one of the top lines in the NFL. The Bengals did make a big splash this offseason, though. Their big acquisition was bringing in Orlando Brown to play left tackle. Obviously, they had injuries to Jonah Williams and L. Collins. Is this really the move that Cincinnati Bengals fans that the Bengals themselves think is finally going to make sure Joe Burrow is as adequately protected as he possibly can be.

I think it gets the best five offensive linemen on the field, assuming health that the Bengals have had in the Joe Burrow era. And injuries really got the best of them last year, especially in the playoffs, which maybe not as relevant from a fantasy perspective. But it wasn't just their tackles that got hurt. They also lost their right guard who was one of their better players than Alex Kappa. And with a healthy offensive line, if it is from left to run, right, Orlando Brown, Cordell Voson, Ted Carras, Alex Kappa, Jonah Williams.

I think that's the five best players they've had on an offensive line since Joe Burrow became the quarterback. They've had a rotating door at right tackle. Jonah Williams last year had a bit of a down year. But if you go look at his game by game performance, you go watch the individual games. Most of those struggles came in a handful of games. Miles Garrett ate his lunch twice. and Miles Garrett is apt to do that to many left tackles. In the NFL, he'll probably do it to Orlando Brown to some degree this year as well, just because he's a freak and he does that. But he was pretty good in most of their games last year.

I'm very bullish on Jonah Williams. I was going into last year as well. I think he's got the work ethic. He's got the attitude to make it work. And the big question will be health for him if he can figure those things out. And if he can get some consistent play around him. So adding Orlando Brose, it's not a move the Bengals thought they were going to be able to make.

It happened very quickly as the market for Orlando Brown didn't develop quite as much as a player and his agents thought it would. He was interested in playing with Joe Burrow and Cincinnati, make it another great quarterback he's blocked for, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. And I do think that he upgrades the left tackle position. I do think he's going to be better this year than Jonah Williams was at the position last year, Jonah having a down year in particular, but Jonah at Wright tackle should also, I think, and this might be my bias at play here because I thought he's going to take a big step last year

that he didn't take, be better than what the Bengals got out of an injured Lell Collins last year at Wright tackle. And so monitoring Collins' health will be something to watch as well. I think Jonah is much further along in his rehab. He had a reconstructive surgery on the ligament that connects your knee cap to your skeletal structure, whereas LC had an entire knee reconstruction. He shredded his knee, unfortunately, late last year for the Bengals. So he's a little bit further behind in his rehab.

But if he is healthy, then there might be a little bit of a competition at Wright tackle that bears watching in the preseason. So if we're, I think the offensive line from a fantasy perspective, we've seen Joe Burrow put up numbers despite the fact that the offensive line has been up and down. throughout his career. I think one of the questions that people are going to have is, how does this affect somebody like Joe Mixing in the run game? And that's kind of where I want to go next.

Joe Mixing, per our data at fantasy points.com, which will be available at some point this summer to the public, stuffed on basically 46% of his runs last year. It wasn't awful for him, but he just didn't seem to have the efficiency that you hope from him. I know we heard some cut rumors in the offseason. doesn't look like that's going to happen at this point. They only brought in the rookie Chase Brown out Illinois,

which is somebody I want to talk to you about. But is this kind of Mixon's last stand in Cincinnati? And what do you anticipate his role being this year? It's a bit surprising to me that Chase Brown was the only addition in the room. I do think that Mixon will have a similar role this year to last year. I think he's going to be the guy on first and second downs. I think he will continue to have receiving opportunities because he's actually a pretty good receiver.

running back. And really what kind of disappeared from this game last year was at times the burst looked like it kind of dropped a level. And his acceleration was one of the things that made him a good running back in the NFL. He would at times obsolete defender angles before they had a chance to close and actually get contact on him. The other thing was I think he just became a little bit less elusive. He wasn't making guys miss as much given the opportunities to do so. And those two things together makes you much less explosive running back. That's what the Bengals are looking for with the addition of Chase Brown is the home run ability.

We just actually finished recording locked on Bengals for today after day two of rookie minicamp. So I'm not sure when this is airing in comparison, but not rookie minicamp and mandatory minicamp. And we talked to Charlie Goldsmith from the Cincinnati Inquirer about some of the rookies. And he talked to Chase Brown today, which is what I was trying. trying to get to you there. And Chase Brown said that what he's been working on and would redirect the conversation pretty consistently to working on improving as a receiving back, improving as a pass protector. And those are the things about the role that he's expecting to

play. And those are the things that they really like Samajai P. Ryan do it. Right. And I think that he was great in that role. He was adequate as a running back. Really smart player doesn't have that explosiveness to his game, but it was a very efficient player when he did touch the ball. You know, even though I do the numbers for a living and I should have these things ingrained in me, I did not like realize until looking back that Joe Mixen caught 60 passes last year, which is a huge number for a running back. And honestly, that's something that I wonder if the Bengals anticipated they would have gotten a little bit more of out of him, given the talent that he was coming out of Oklahoma.

Coming out of Oklahoma, the scouting report that we had that we put together, we being me and a guy named Joe Goodberry who also does Bengals, content. We've been working on draft stuff. Yeah, we've been working on draft projects related to the Bengals for years now. But the takeaway, one of the big takeaways for Mixing is that he should be really, really good in the receiving game. And part of the problem is that he hasn't figured it out as a pass blocker. And I think he probably is what he is at this point. In that regard, I don't think he's going to get a ton of third down opportunities and clear passing situations just because they do rely on those running backs to pass block when they're sending, you know, four guys into routes

and don't have an attached tight end. We'll talk about Irv Smith, I'm sure, but they're not going to have an attached tight end a ton on third downs, given that Irv Smith is their primary receiving tight end, and if it's a passing situation on third down, he's going to be on the field. So does Mix and fit in on those plays? Probably not that often.

He was coming off the field in two-minute drill situations last year, which again, the clear passing situations. But one of the big things that Joe Burrow changed in his game last year, and I know that you wanted to focus on the running backs here. This was related is he decided that he didn't want to take sacks anymore. He got sick of he got sick so sick of everyone talking about, man, Joe Burrow takes too many sacks. All the all the QB evaluators out there, all the baby armed burrow crowd out there that thinks that Joe Burrow, you know, isn't a very good quarterback. One of the big criticisms was the amount of sacks he takes.

And he just decided he wasn't going to do it anymore. Then his sack rate went way down. And a big part of that is like he said, he's dumped. the ball off, getting the ball out on time. And if you watch Joe Burrow games and their big wing streak in the second half of the season, the amount of plays where he's on time, getting the ball out exactly when he should, is a very, very high percentage of plays. I don't have it quantified.

I didn't chart those games individually, but I was consistently impressed with Joe Burrow getting rid of the ball on time, not taking unnecessary sacks, not getting confused by the defense. That part of his game, I think, has improved. And so what's going to be interesting is if the offensive, line is holding up a little bit better, where do those targets go? Does that enable Joe Burrow to take that extra hitch and push the ball downfield? Or does that lead to another year?

From a stylistic perspective, does Joe Burroughs change to just get the ball out to his running backs quickly when he needs to? Does that persist and lead to a high receiving volume for his running backs? That's something that I think will be very interesting to watch very early in the year to see how those stylistic changes mesh together as far as if pass protection is better, what impact does that have on the Bengals running backs and the receiving game? So I want to actually use that as kind of a building point to talk maybe a little bit more dynasty, a little bit more long term here for the Bengals.

I think it's obvious. Jalen Hertz gets signed this offseason. Lamar Jackson gets signed this off season. The check is coming due on Joe Burrow. And that's going to get done. I don't think that's a question. It's just a matter of how much money. And as often in the NFL, it's probably going to be just a little bit more than the last

contract that got signed. what effect does this have on T. Higgins and Jemar Chase, though? That's the big question I have from a dynasty in a long-term perspective. I think the second priority for the Bengals, after they get Joe Burroughs deal done, is going to be to see if they can get something done with T. Higgins. A lot of people are talking about you can't pay T and Jemar and Joe, and this is a talking point,

especially for other AFC team fans who don't like the Cincinnati Bengals very much. There's only a couple examples of this, I guess, in history, the Rams had Isaac Bruce and Tori Holt together. The Colts kept Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne together with Peyton Manning. So it's not like it's unprecedented, but the markets for these positions have changed since then. But I'd be interested to see, and I should have looked at this, but I'd be interested to see what the cap percentage was for those guys and how that compares to the cap percentage today because the numbers are bigger, but how much different is the percentage of the cap allocation

to those players? But beyond that, Jamar Chase is entering his third. year, which means he has one more year and two more years on his rookie deal, including this year, right? 23, 24 rookie deal, 25, fifth year option, 26, if they need to, franchise tag, but probably they try to get an extension done. But there's at least four more years of easy team control for the Bengals on Jamar Chase. If T. Hicken signs an extension today, that means that they're both getting paid for one

season. It may be two if you count the franchise tag, which is a wide receiver is a pretty expensive bill to pay. but Joe Burroughs contract isn't going to kick him for a few years either, what you're probably going to see and what I would do if I were the Bengals. And kind of where my expectation is for now, although there's a caveat to this that I'll get to, is that they try to keep those three guys together.

That is a big part of their core, and they're going to have to lose somebody they like elsewhere to make that happen, probably on the defensive side of the ball. They probably will continue to have to draft heavy on the defensive side of the ball. If they try to keep some of these offensive players together, they're going to have to start hitting on some offensive linemen as the guys they currently have aged, but they've got at least a left tackle for the next five years or so. So they have some pieces locked up, but if you look out into the future for the Bengals,

not a whole lot of future contract obligations. So I think that those three on offense, those skill players, T. Higgins, Jemarchase, Joe Burrow, are a trio that they're going to try to keep together. The caveat here is, can they get? get a deal done with David Mulligeta because they haven't been able to do so in the past. They had a couple seasons of trying to get something known with Jesse Bates. Malageta also represents T. Higgins and the other Bengal that he represents Joseph Osai, which is less relevant to this conversation.

But can they figure that out? Because they haven't in the past. It was something where it seemed like the agent was an obstacle for them with Jesse Bates. They like to do their contracts in a very particular way. As far as where the guarantees are, they tend to only guarantee anything in year one. That's not the trend for superstars in the NFL right now. So that is what will bear watching. Do they break that structure a little bit to keep some of their superstars together

now that they are very clearly in a Super Bowl window and have these players that are getting them there? You know, I think I find it interesting that you mentioned they might pivot to losing guys on defense to keep the offense together because obviously not hard to see that. their first round pick was Miles Murphy, and they can probably get out of Trey Hendrickson's contract if they need to. You know, they draft DJ. Their first three picks were all on defense.

So there's some optionality there if they want to make some moves around there. Yeah, but Trey Hendrickson to me, people have talked about this. I know, I mean, we've talked about it on our podcast. Paul Dayner Jr. talked about it over the athletic. I think he's still really good. He's still a top 10 pass rusher in the NFL. So it would have to be a pretty steep falloff for him to. me because he's still if he's still a top-time pass rush in the NFL and people like to nitpick you know he

didn't have the sack numbers last year but you're still affecting the quarterback more than anyone else on this defense when he was off the field the pass rush was a problem miles murphy how much does he help that we'll see we'll see where he's at in year one right there's a lot to like there with with the traits from miles murphy but it's a good deal if he's still the player that he's bet. And so I don't know about the, the Trey Hendrickson cut. Joe Mix, and we talked about earlier, I have a hard time imagining he'll see next year on his deal. And they drafted some guys that are going to have to step up and replace some of the guys on defense. Shoulda be a contract year, they drafted DJ Turner this year. They drafted Camp Taylor Britt last year.

Those two guys are going to be starters of the future for this team. They drafted another safety in Jordan Battle to put a couple of young guys back there in addition to a relatively cheap veteran deal for for nick scott so they're aware of what's coming for the most part and the one big question on the defensive side of the ball from a financial perspective to me is dj reader contract year very important player for a nose tackle we're talking about a nose tackle on a fantasy podcast now so i apologize but that that's a big financial choice that they will have to make because they will if they do choose to keep him have a lot of money invested on the defensive line look we look you can talk about DJ Reader on this

on this podcast because but when both he and Josh Tapuo, not sure of him saying that right, were out last year. We knew to target the Bengals. I mean, like, that's I know that's not exactly something something that people might be tuning in for, but it is important. Now, if you want to poke a hole in the Bengals

on offense, I would think fans, fantasy analysts are going to point to the tight end position. Irv Smith has been a perennial fantasy sleeper since I think he was 10 years old has not come through. Injuries have been a problem there. He's in on a cheap deal, try to replace maybe even supersede what Hayden Hurst gave the Bengals. What have you seen from Irv Smith in mini-camps? Is there reason to be optimistic or do you just not think he's going to be

a very important part of this offense? I don't think that the tight end position, unless they had drafted Dalton Kincaid, which they were interested in doing unless they had drafted, why am I forgetting his name? Sam LaPorteurta, the Iowa tight end. Those are the two guys that they were very interested in at the tight end position and might have caused them to change their offense a little bit for those guys.

Irv Smith does bring an element that Hayden Hurst didn't. I think he's better vertically. I think he's got better speed. I think he's similarly reliable catcher of the football, although Vikings fans would probably disagree and point to some very critical drops that he had last year. But if he's healthy, I would peg him between Hayden Hurst and C.J. Usama in the last two years for the Bengals as a fantasy range of outcomes.

And the primary reason for that isn't really anything to do with Irv Smith. It's more that when you've got T. Higgins and Jermar Chase demanding so many targets. And you've got Tyler Boyd is a very, very good slot option who isn't getting a ton of targets. But in the clutch, when you need something, Joe Burrough is very comfortable and very confident in throwing him the ball. tight end kind of comes either fourth or fifth in the pecking order a lot of the time in terms of where they're trying to get the ball. And Hayden Hurst was a clutch player for them last year on a number of third downs and they needed six to nine yards. He would catch a ball four to seven yards down the field and get those three yards after the catch that they needed. And they use Hayden Hurst more in that context as a checkdown as an underneath kind of guy.

Irv Smith might get used a little bit differently. you expect to see him targeted a little bit more downfield. That's more of his game as a big wide receiver than Hayden Hurst, who is not quite the athlete in terms of vertical threat as a receiver, as Irv Smith is, in my opinion, you might see different usage, but I wouldn't be shocked to see similar output from those guys. Hayden Hurst got hurt for them last year, too. So the big question for Irv Smith is if he's healthy.

Because if he's not, then, I mean, the Bengals were right back to where they were last year, where Mitchell Wilcox was coming off the practice. the squad to play tight-end one-staffs. And Drew Sample is, you know, big he's a blocker, you know, assy-assie they have. It's not exactly a murderer's row, but there's going to be a position here or there that's going to be a little bit weaker. Now, Jake, I told you, everybody I'm asking,

name a guy on this roster who might be a low-key fantasy contributor. It doesn't have to be somebody who, you know, maybe for two weeks if somebody gets hurt. I thought it was going to be Chase Brown. I said that before the podcast, and you said, No, I got somebody else. I'm excited to hear this. I'm coming in blind.

I don't know who it is. Who is the low-key potential fantasy contributor on the Cincinnati Bengals offense? Yeah, you've got to go low-key, right? Chase Brown, not very low-key for this. See, I like this. For the average listener, Chase Brown probably is a little low-key, but we're going for the hardcore here. Well, I mean, if you look at running back, like running back debts charts across the league,

I assume that running back to on good offenses is somebody that might be targeted. I don't even know if Chase Brown is going to be running back, too, for what it's worth. Probably. Probably works out that way, but they did keep Trayvion Williams around. And I know they like him. It doesn't have the pedigree or anything like that that the Chase Brown does. And it seems like Chase Brown is destined for that third down back roll. But one, I do like Irv Smith when you need a tight end, like a streamer. I do like Irv Smith there, but that's not my answer.

The guy is Charlie Jones. The Bengals' fourth round pick out of Purdue, spent a lot of time in college as an old rookie, but broke out in a big way and part of that is going to be the age. He had a lot more experience and a lot more development time under his belt than some of his opponents, but is being groomed to be the slot receiver

of the future for the Bengals, Tyler Boyd, in a contract year. So from a dynasty perspective, I like Charlie Jones, although there's always a threat when you're not an early round picket receiver that they just draft somebody next year for that role in the second round and the third round. Charlie Jones seems to be moving very well and just kind of seems to have the trajectory right now

to be the slot of the future for the Bengals and if they do have an injury, he could be the first guy off the bench. If you want to go really deep and it's very early for this, we need to see how he plays in the preseason. But Andre Yosevash looks like he's on his way to carving out a role on this team, the Olympic level athlete out of Princeton

that the Bengals drafted, I believe in the sixth round, has come a long way in a short time. in terms of his route running early on in his Bengals career and critically is looking really promising on special teams, which he's going to have to do to make the team. And just kind of a long-term dynasty bet there. If you want to really dig real deep on this team for a guy that if he does put it together, he has every athletic trait you could possibly want.

And on a team with Joe Burrow, a quarterback that can play up in the future. Yeah, that might just earn you a co-hosting spot with Ross Tucker, who loves his Princeton boys and he always likes when I bring his Princeton boys up on the Fantasy Fees podcast. So that might get you a follow and a like from Ross. I'll be sure to throw this podcast out to him, Jake. His name is Jake Liscoe, locked on Bengals podcast.

If you're a Bengals fan, I'm sure you already know about it. But hey, maybe you're an AFC football fan, one of those fans who hates the Bengals because you've got to keep an eye on the enemy, keep your enemies closer. Make sure you listen to that podcast. He does fantastic work. At Jake Liscoe on Twitter.

Jake, thank you so much for joining me. One of my favorites last year. You've already been one of my favorites this year. And presuming you can tolerate me, I'll have you back in next year. So thank you for joining me. Thanks, Joe. Looking forward to it.

Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.