Fantasy Football Daily - Conference Championships, The Fumble Touchback Rule, and Coaching Changes | Take Talk

Episode Date: January 24, 2024

Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7) and Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) journey around the latest storylines in the NFL. They obviously preview the upcoming AFC and NFC Championship Games, but also discuss the official coaching changes and the controversial fumble touchback rule. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS IN 2024 AT OUR EARLY-BIRD RATE, INCLUDING OUR NEW ALL-IN PACKAGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At Capital One, we're more than just a credit card company. We're people just like you who believe in the power of yes. Yes to new opportunities. Yes to second chances. Yes to a fresh start. That's why we've helped over 4 million Canadians get access to a credit card. Because at Capital One, we say yes, so you don't have to hear another no. What will you do with your yes?

Get the yes you've been waiting for at Capital One.ca.ca. slash yes. Terms and conditions apply. Make their holiday unforgettable with a gift that says it all from Pandora Jewelry, a gift that tells a story and shows you know theirs that doesn't just sparkle, but speaks. From new festive charms

to forever rings and personal engravings, this season give a gift that's perfectly theirs. Whether you're shopping for a shiny surprise for your significant other, matching bracelets to celebrate your friendship, or a heartfelt gift for a family member. Say more this holiday season with Pandora. Shop now at CA.pandora.net or visit your closest Pandora store.

It's time to the Fantasy Points Podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Are we back? We're back. We're back with another episode of TikTok podcast. I'm your host, Brett Whitewater. Field. This is my co-s, even O'Rourke. We lagged as I hit the record button, Steve. It lag.

I can tell. Real concern in the face there for a second. Yeah, it was just saying zero, zero, zero. Anyways, we're back. It is conference championship weekend. We saw a couple of great games this past week. We'll shoot the two, I think, actually three of the four were good, would you say? I mean, other than Baltimore, Houston. And, like, yeah, three and a half, I guess we'd call it. Because the first half of the Houston game was interesting. And then- First quarter was interesting.

Yeah. I mean, they're often scored three points the whole game, which is not, no point no. But, but yeah, I mean, the 49ers, you know, got it done against the Packers on a kind of a crazy, crazy end of that game. And then the Lions took down the Buccaneers with a surge in the second half. And then we had the Chief Bill's game, which is always. a good game. That was another Chiefs Bill's Classic. Yeah. It reminds me of the Manning

Brady battles back in the Patriots Colts lore days. You know, that was, it's kind of what's going on there. So love it. Yeah, lives up to the hype every single time. Not often does that happen in sports in general, but those matchups live up to the hype

every single time. True. That's a good point. Well, we are going to get into breaking down the conference championship games. We have two of them. We can spend a little time going through each game. But first, Steve, you wanted to talk touchback rule and I think this is great.

I don't think we've ever addressed this and there's a crying almost a unified voice on the Twitter platform these days of analysts and fans alike wanting the touchback rule to be overturned, not overturned

but changed. For those who don't know what that is if you're in scoring position and you fumble the ball out of the defenses end zone that is rewarded to them as a touchback it goes in the in the books as a turnover um and so the defense and they get the ball on the 20 right or the 25 20 20 20 um so it acts as a turnover where typically if you fumble the ball like out of bounds per se um it's it's the ball just differs back to the offense so it is a as a a rule that we've seen kill some teams this year um You want to talk about it.

Why don't you start with giving your thoughts? So I personally, I think it is one of my favorite rules in football. And I don't think, I think it needs to stay. I think it is like so, it is such a perfectly crafted rule where I think that going toward the end zone is the whole, I don't know, it's the whole point of the game is to put the ball in the end zone in your hands. and I think that there's a certain risk that comes with trying to get the ball in the end zone. And with that, if you can't, like, I don't know, I think when it fumbles out of the end zone, like, I just think that it, it's a, I think it's a good punishment for a crime of being, like, lackadaisical with the ball toward the, near the end zone. I also love it because it's one of those few rules where, like, I don't know, you love it. Like, you love it when it works out for you.

You hate it when it doesn't work out for you. I think that's what's, I think that is super fun about it. It's, you know, there's not really any wiggle room for like it's not fair. It is fair. It either happens to you or it doesn't and you think it's fair or it's not. If it happens for you, you're pumped. You love the rule. It's great.

If it happens against you, you hate it. It's the worst rule in the world. I think that's a perfect. I think that's the perfect middle zone for a rule is when you hate it when it happens to you. You love it when it doesn't. And I just think that I think it is a good punishment for taking that risk of trying to get it in the end zone. Like you have to be more careful with the ball around the end zone. And that is, you know, kind of a punishment.

I don't know. I know like some people are like, well, you know, it anytime, any other, like you said, any other time you fumbled it out of bounds outside of your own end zone. it stays with you. I think that's probably the right way to do that too. Exactly. That's not out of bounds. There it is. It's just it's different.

I don't know. I just think that like this the stakes should be raised when you're getting into scoring position. Yeah. And so I'm fine with the rule. I don't think anything should be changed. Yeah. And you talked to any coach in the NFL. The first thing they're going to say to you is,

is ball security, you know? Yeah. The ball security is paramount. It's the number one thing that teams worry about. Any coach, when they're game planning for any opponent, the number one thing they'll list every single time is ball security. So if you don't want the rule to be applied against you, then don't fumble the football.

It's not that hard. That's like a staple of what Belichick teaches. Belichick has been, like, adamant for years of, like, do not ever reach the ball out into the end zone. that thing stays close to your chest and you get it in with your whole body. That's always meant his mantra because it saves situations like that. For sure. The other thing too is like we play in a league where there are basically no rules that favor the defense.

Yes. The only two that might are the safety, which is the other side of the field and then the football out of bounds for a touchback. so I don't mind giving the defense a reprieve here. I mean, they deserve it. You force the ball out of somebody's hands on the goal line. I like giving it to the defense. So we've seen some crazy takes about this.

I don't want to name names, but some analytics nerds on Twitter have talked about how this is by far the worst rule in all of sports. And I don't even think it's close to the worst rule to all sports. In fact, it's wild. Yeah, I think football has worse rules. like the spot-fowled DPI's, for example. Those are, that's a way worse rule.

Like, you know, a 60-yard pass play because of a DPI is insane to me. I think automatic first downs on defensive infractions is stupid. If it's third and 15 and you commit a five-yard defensive hold, why is it an automatic first down? Yeah. It should be a replay of down third and 10. Anyways, those are far worse rules to me than the touchback rule. Yeah, yeah, I agree.

But yeah, I just, the discourse of it, like, some people are like, well, if you fumbled out of bounds, the offense should, like, then get the ball at the, at the 20 or get penalized for going back, like, and like go back. I don't know. Like, again, I think that that's, you take certain risks in the game. That is a risk. And I think that it, it can, it, it incentivizes and makes it a more poignant moment when guys reach the ball out for the end. I don't know. I think that it increases the stakes. I think that if you didn't have that rule, I don't know, you might see people get a little bit more risky with it. Oh, for sure. I don't know. That doesn't mean good or bad, but just like, I think it prioritizes keeping the ball in your possession in a very high,

intensity, high stress moment when you're in the red zone. And I think incentivizing that and making that more of, you know, something that you have to focus on, I think is a good. rule. Yeah, agreed. I agree with you on this topic. It is shocking. And pretty much everyone that's played the game or is currently playing the game agrees with us on this discussion. It's only the, you know, certain media members or whatever or, you know, football Twitter people that want to change this rule. So yeah. Anyways, let's move on, Steve. Let's do some brief coaching discussion Before we get into the game breakdowns, there's a lot going on as far as, you know, I think Ben Johnson's now interviewed for five of the six remaining openings.

Aaron Glenn's also interviewed for five. Yep. Jim Harbaugh's heavy in the mix in L.A. is the Chargers. Yeah. I think one point I really wanted to make Steve, and I see a lot of, there's just a lot of, like, posturing online about what makes, you know, why is Ben Johnson the best candidate? it why it like scheme it's all in all the talk always comes back to scheme like who has who's running the best scheme and I don't think it really matters I've I think we've learned over the years that

the the head coach position is a CEO role yes I know you and I've talked about this and it's you are a leader you're a leader of men you're a motivator you are a relationship guy you're basically like a psychiatrist in some regards or psychologists like you are you are a relationship dude really you're the glue. You're the whole glue of the team. That's your main job. Scheme is not necessarily in your purview. Now, obviously there are some coaches

that call plays or their teams, whether it's offense or defense. That's true. But for the most part, your number one role is to be a leader. And for a lot of these candidates that haven't been head coaches yet, I think it's very hard to provide an analysis

for if they will be good head coaches because we really don't freaking know. A lot of people thought Arthur Smith would be a great head coach, and that turned out bad. We have no idea how these guys lead. Now, obviously, people that have, like Jim Harbaugh has been a head coach for a long time in the NFL and college football. We can provide a little bit more analysis on a Jim Harbaugh on what he brings at the table.

Right. But for like a Ben Johnson or a Brian Callahan or Dave Canales, we really don't know. They've never been in the situation before. I have no idea of Ben Johnson knows how to command a locker room and motivate his players and lead from ahead. I know he's a brilliant offensive mind and I'm sure whatever team he gets. goes who will have a pretty good offense. But that doesn't mean the team as a unit will be, will be gluey and sticky.

So. Yeah. Yeah. I just, like, it, I think there are two, it seems there are two pathways to being a successful coach.

You have a guy like, you know, the, the, the, the, the Dan Campbell's, like those type of personalities where it is.

It's, you know, I'm here to instill a mentality, a culture, you know, a culture, and change that and make that who we are as a team. And then I think there are there are guys like Kyle Shanahan,

who also obviously is of a similar vein in some way, shape, and form. He has to be. You know, you have to be that way to be a coach. But he does have that more scheme focused. But then you look at the people that they surround them, he surrounds himself with. He had guys like Damico Ryans, Robert Salah. Those are the guys that have that, you know, culture.

instilling attitude. And so I think that you're right. It is virtually impossible to gauge how these guys who haven't been head coaches are going to be because, you know, Ben Johnson, if he, yeah, he can, you're right, he can and has come up with an amazing scheme. But, you know, is, will he be able to hand over those, the reins for that? And if he doesn't, can he get the right staff around him that is able to, you know kind of be that sounding board of helping instill the culture while he's able to you know focus on scheme and do that type of stuff and so it's just it's hard because you don't know

like you can you can surmise like you know de mcora has done a great job and you know i think he is a culture guy but he also came from a good system had good connections brought in good coaches with him then johnson seemingly has that you know dave canales maybe kind of has has that the bucks have been an interesting team and he comes from the seahawks and you know they've had interesting coaching staffs where it's all instilled underneath you know these figureheads that have been there for a while it's just you like it you're just you're hoping for the best and yes scheme scheme is a great idea and you'd love you want to have the most innovative most effective scheme but at the end of the day it doesn't matter if you can't instill a culture or instill

your way of playing football, whether it be through yourself or through the coaches you bring in, and there's no guarantee either way. Yep. That's good. That summarizes basically what I thought we should talk about

as far as coaches go. We'll get into, listen, when all the hires are made, Steve and I will break them all down and we'll give you our takes. But just know, it will come through the lens of we don't really know for a lot of these guys, you know? Yeah, it's all.

Yeah. Just as much as it is, you know, any other job in the world, it's you're interviewing and it's pure guesswork after that. Anybody can be a good interviewer. Anybody can tell you to say the things that sound great to an ownership group to, you know, to a GM to whatever. But at the end of the day, it doesn't matter until they get in the building and they start installing and doing the things they need to do.

I don't know. It'd be interesting to break down if there's a way to. like how did the how did a press conference go is there a way to draw any conclusions from how press conferences go because you see you know you see a guy like the difference between you know dan campbell getting hired and arthur smith you know you polar opposite press conferences exactly you'd be like okay i can see how we got to this point but you know it's not always that easy because those those guys are polar opposites oh steve it's different it's even it's even goes way deeper than that. I actually have been going through receipts of Dan Campbell hate takes. Even from our own,

Scott Barrett here at fantasy points. Him and I used to go at it because he would tell me all the time, Dan Campbell's a lame duck. They hired him just, you know, so they can tank for the next three years, then he's gone, and then they'll get a real coach. There, I was that that was a point. That was a point for a while. He was the sacrificial lamb. Yes. And I went back and I even found Jason Moore, one of the top fantasy guys in the business. Him and I had an exchange where he was reprimanding Campbell for his introductory press conference while also praising Arthur Smith for his. That was his juxtaposition debating with me. And I love Jason, so I would never retweet that or anything or try to do the dunk Twitter thing.

but I do think it's funny. He wasn't the only one. And I don't bring that up just to say he was, you know, alone in that. There were a lot of people saying that, oh, look how professional and calm and cool and collected. Arthur Smith was and this radical meathead dummy, you know, tobacco chewing, coffee drinking loser Dan Campbell. You know, remember when he came out with the motorcycle helmet on or not the... Yeah, for the Grand Prix. Yeah.

Like he was getting drunk. ragged constantly for about the first year. And then I think Hard Knocks came out and he endured a lot of people to him. Then obviously the team has loved him. Jared Goff just said the other day, he's the greatest leader he's ever been around his entire life. Frank Ragnow said the same thing. But it just, it's so crazy.

So like even when you think you have evidence of, oh, Arthur, this is going to be a great coach. Look how calm, cool, and collected is. And then look at this meathead who's mouthing off, talking about biting kneecaps and drowning people in the deep, like, you still don't know anything. Like, you don't, you really don't know, man. It's, it's, it's tough. So, and it's funny that it's funny.

And again, this is all hindsight. It's very easy to look back and, you know, assess this now after we've seen the successes and failures of these two guys. But it's interesting that thinking about that now and thinking about what we know about football in general, that you would praise a coach for. being calm, cool, and collected a little bit. I don't know. Football is the most intense, one of the top three most intense sports.

I, as a, you know, as a fan, I would, I think I'd rather see the, you know, the guy who's intense and wears it on a sleeve and, you know, isn't really hiding anything. And, you know, obviously that's failed before because I think that's, you know, some people, some coaches. is, you know, they bring that intensity. But, I mean, the key is is that sometimes it's not always authentic. And authenticity is where you polarize and grab people, I think. And that's, you know, that you've seen it for years with, you know, the last three years with Campbell. And even, you know, all over the years with Belichick and, you know, even some guys like LaFleur and, you know, Shanahan, even McDaniel, even McDaniel, does it in a little bit different way. but like you watch there you watch press conferences throughout the year you watch all of you know just the way they talk and the way they present themselves in front of the media it is constant intensity and it's you know belichick does his own thing but the the intensity is there it's different but it's there and it's authentic and where it's failed before is when you know guys are doing it as a schick yeah to try and you know posture as this larger than life being i think and it's it's it's

trying to find that intensity while also marrying it with being authentic about what you are as a coach and as a person. Yeah, two more notes on that and then we got to move on. But I totally agree. And one of the things I've always admired about Dan is he is this rah-rah motivational leader type character, but he's never once been out of control of his emotions. He's always, and sometimes he walks the line. I think even back to the Dallas game where, you know, the official situation happened. When Dan got to the press conference and they asked him about it, instead of mouth and off and losing control of his emotions, he actually stepped back for second.

Took a step back. He detached. I use this phrase with my kids all the time, detach. If you're feeling emotional, just detach a second. Take a step back. Try to find a different perspective. Take a deep breath. And then he came back and calmly delivered his thoughts on that situation.

I admire that about Dan Campbell. The other thing is, is you talked about the authenticity. a lot of those those the rah-rah types that haven't worked out it's because the emphasis is on them even i even think jim harbaugh early in his tenure with michigan he was one of these types of guys and the focus was always on jim something changed in him in 2020 um i this is i've been documenting this and i plan on um i'm actually writing a little a little i don't know if it's going to be an article or a mini book or something about the rise of jim harbaw but anyways like if something changed him in twenty where it stopped becoming about him and it was all about the team.

And that's been Dan's focus. It's never look at me. I'm some macho dude. It's, hey, look at these guys. Look at these guys we've built. Look at Jared. Look at Aiden. Like these guys are balling out.

These guys are leading the team. So that to me is the big difference. And that's the level of authenticity you're talking about. I think what separates, you know, a wannabe to a real legitimate leader. Yes. So, all right, good stuff. Let's talk about conference championship Sunday. This is my favorite Sunday of the year, Steve.

We get too high impact. I think it's better than Super Bowl Sunday. I know it's a hot take. It's my favorite day of the entire year. We get two high leverage games. All the stakes, everything on the line. Everything's built up to this. Even when you hear coaches talk about it,

they usually talk about just getting to this game. And then once you get to this game, anything can happen. You can get to the Super Bowl. But man, this is so fun. And so we'll do the early game first. You have the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Baltimore to play the number one seed Ravens. The fact that the Chiefs are in this situation again is crazy. They had what everyone considers as a down year.

Shoot, last year was kind of a down year too. And they won the Super Bowl this year, even more of a down year. And they're right back in the mix. That's obviously the lore of Patrick Mahomes. I'm having flashbacks to the Tom Brady Patriots. There were so many Patriot teams, Steve, that were dead. that were, oh, this team stinks. I remember the year they beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

That team stunk. That team was not in good. And you peek at the right time. You figure stuff out at the right time. And all of a sudden, you know, they had like what Brandon Lafell was their best receiver that season. And then they go to the Super Bowl and win. I mean, it just, I'm having flashbacks.

And I think Mahomes is on that level. Obviously, the resume isn't as good as Brady's yet, but it's building fast, guys, like really fast. Yeah. This is incredible. that said, Baltimore, I think, matches up pretty favorably with the Chiefs. It's going to be, this should be an excellent game, Steve.

I'm like really excited to watch this one. Give me your initial thoughts here. Yeah, this is, I mean, it's, I'm very excited about this game because I think that the onus is on both offenses to adapt to what these defenses are bringing. Both of these defenses are playing at a high level and have played at a high level all year. Yep. I mean, the way the Chiefs defended the bills and the way they played that game, I mean, you know, looking back, Josh Allen played one of his, probably one of the best games of his career in that game as far as decision making,

as far as taking what he was given. He played a clean. Other than, yeah, he almost had the one fumble. Luckily, they recovered it, so it doesn't count. but he played a really good game and they still pulled it off. And that it just, you know, that was them adapting to what the chiefs were giving them. And it still took one of Josh Allen's best games and he still didn't get it done. And I think that's what's going to be asked of Lamar Jackson in the same way is it's going to be, you know, for the, you know, the Baltimore offense is they're going to have to adapt a little bit because Spags is going to, Spags is going to bring something new as he does almost every week.

and he especially does during the playoffs. He's going to bring something new. I think on that side, on that side of the ball, I'm interested to see what Lamar does with his legs. I think that that's, you know, in every game, it's the advantage. But in this game, it feels like it could be more of a turning point than, you know, a lot of other games.

I think that he has the edge there. Kansas City has some decently athletic linebackers, but nothing crazy. So I think he could kind of take advantage of that. And Kansas City's past defense has played really well. They're going to sit back. in a lot. They're going to sit back and, you know, some single high, a little bit of too high.

They mix it up quite a bit. They bring a lot of blitzes. They bring a lot of blitzes from a lot of different areas. It'll be interesting to see how they match the, like, you know, Mark Andrews is. I think that was reported this morning that Mark Andrews will be back. So you'll see, you know, a lot of a lot of the, I think the 12, 13 personnel out of Baltimore. It just, it'll be interesting to see how the Kansas City defense matches up to what Baltimore does on offense. And then on the flip side, Baltimore plays a lot of too high.

They're at 53% too high, which is eighth in the league on defensive snaps. And, you know, Patrick Mahomes hasn't been amazing against too high this year. You know, he's had about an 88.88.7 pass a rating, just 6.4 yards per attempt against too high. He does have a 4.7% completion percentage over expected. But, But, you know, that's what teams want to do to Mahomes is they want to make him just operate underneath, operate underneath, and just, you know, hope that basically teams are hope that those receivers make a mistake. And, I mean, that's what I think that's what Baltimore is going to do all day is they're going to, they want their linebackers to control the middle of the field. They want their, you know, they want the spine of the defense to kind of control that game. And I think that that, you know, that's going to be where, you know, that's, you know, on that side of the ballroom.

I think that's a big matchup is, you know, how does Kansas City operate over the middle of the field? How do they get Rishie Rice and Travis Kelsey the ball over the middle of the field, given that that's the strength of the Ravens defense? Yeah, so I will say this. So going, let's, I'm going to rewind all the way back to Baltimore over Kansas City D. You know, one of the things that I think is a huge winning point for Baltimore in this game is Kansas City does play a ton of man. To your point, by the way, Kansas City is blitzing at an insane rate in the playoffs. Their blitz rates up to 44%. Yeah, it's crazy.

Over the last five weeks of the season, it was only like 28%. On the season in aggregate, it was, you know, 35% of something like that. So they kind of fluctuate that blitz rate based on game plan. I feel like blitzing Lamar is probably not the best idea. I don't know. Unless you're doing a really concerted effort of lane discipline, you know, rush lane discipline, and stuff like that. I mean, we saw it with, I guess,

the Ravens versus Chargers a few years ago, that worked against Lamar. There's a lot of gap exchanges, stuff like that. But, man, one thing that the Kansas City defense does, that tilts things in Baltimore's favor is all the man coverage they play. And you saw it with Josh Allen. When he got man coverage, when good mobile quarterback see the backs of second level defenders,

they are going to, they're going to make you pay for that. Josh Allen did it. They get 70-yard rushing guards in that game. and that was I think one of the biggest totals of the season for him. Lamar is obviously an even better runner than Josh Allen. So I think, you know, and I know Spags, he does. He's a great game planner. He is a little on the stubborn side, though.

Like if I were him, I'd come into this game thinking, you know what? Let's not play as much man as we're used to playing. But I think he probably will stick with that. And I think that's a huge, huge boost for Lamar. He can make stuff happen. Also, one of the things that's like, I've seen a few people. People on Twitter already talk about, oh, Baltimore's all line is bad. They give up, like, over the last five weeks, a 50% pressure rate against.

They're not adjusting for the fact that Lamar Jackson's holding the ball for three seconds to drop back. I mean, their offensive line is playing perfectly fine for what it's worth. Their run block is insane. Their pass protection is insane. An evolution of Lamar's game that I think, I mean, as I'm looking at pulling up the stats, and I think you can see it when he's playing is against the Blitz, Lamar Jackson's time to throw is 2.4 seconds when not blitzing his time to throw is 2.9 seconds. So he's evolved in that he's recognizing.

And I think that, you know, his offensive, like he, I think the interior offensive line of that is good, I think, for Baltimore. And I think that Lamar, Munkin, that interior line, what they've done well is they have done well at identifying when blitzers are coming. because I think that you are seeing that a lot more. Teams, you know, teams are trying to catch Lamar by surprise. And he's responding by doing something, you know, he never really did in his career. And that's get the ball out fast. And, you know, he's not letting it get to him. He's getting it out fast.

He's getting it out right away. I mean, his A dot is, you know, what it. It's way lower than his A dot when he's not blitzed. His, you know, attempt are low. But, you know, it's just it's he sees it. He recognizes that he gets the ball out and, you know, lifts. to see another down. So I was going to say, like, they actually have answers for hot in that offense now.

Previous to the season with the Greg Roman offense, it was similar to what the Eagles and Hertz were dealing with this year, where just all of the answers for being hot rested on Lamar's shoulders, where it's scramble, figure it out, make a play with your legs, because all the pass patterns were deep. They add as a flowers to the mix, who's a demon in the short part of the field. they add OBJ who is a really good slant route runner so sometimes the hot is just simply throwing to the void where the Blitz is coming from. Lamar is throwing to his running backs a lot more this year. Justice Hill when Keaton Mitchell was healthy, they've been a revelation in the past game.

Even Gus Edwards has gotten a few huge plays in the past game against the Blitz. And he's not a big time receiver by any means and they're not targeting him on purpose. But even Gus Edwards has had a couple really long receptions this year. and those were all answers to the Blitz. So I do think that Monken has Lamar way better prepared for the Blitz. So let's flip to the other side now. Kansas City, their pass protection is also insane, by the way. I think the last five weeks, their pressure rate allowed is like 37,

which seems relatively high. But when you adjust for the fact that, you know, again Mahomes holds the ball a little bit longer than most quarterbacks. They're pressure rate over expectations. Great. This O line is really truly fantastic. And Mahomes doesn't get blitzed at all. Their blitz rate against is basically on par with what Baltimore does on the defensive side.

Baltimore's blitz rate, this is what's crazy about Baltimore. No one understands what this defense does. I hear a lot of people talk about it. No one grasp it. It's not that they manufacture pressure. It's that they simulate it. big difference, right? So they don't really blitz that much.

Their blitz rate the last five weeks is under 20%. It's actually one of the lowest in the league, Steve. But what they do is they give you exotic look, disguise looks. They, like you don't necessarily, you won't be under pressure, but you feel like you're under pressure with the look that they're giving you. So they do a really good job of muddying the picture for the quarterback. And that's ultimately where their defense is strong. Because they don't have dogs everywhere in that defense.

Their front seven's really good. But that secondary is beatable. Roland Humphrey is not the same player he was. Brandon Stevens is kind of emerged as a good number two maybe, but beyond that, you've got Rocky Sin and Ronald Darby. Those guys just aren't very good anymore. I mean,

their safeties are what changes the past defense. Between Kyle Hamilton dropping into a nickel, playing a little bit of strong, Gino Stone, Marcus Williams. It's the spine of their defense that changes that defense. Yeah, for sure. Running the ball, by the way, both of these teams are going to probably come in with a run-heavy game plan. Yeah.

Baltimore defense has been awful against the run. Last five weeks, 2.89 adjusted yards before contact per carry. That is the worst mark in the NFL. So right in peak season where you need to be better at stopping the run, they have gone the other direction. That is definitely the way to attack their defense. Oh, by the way, if you adjust that for neutral game script, Steve, it's even worse. So they blow out a lot of teams, obviously. team stop running. If you just that number

for when the score is close, I think that number's in the threes. It's really bad. So Isaiah Pacheco, I would imagine the Chiefs come in with a good script here to run the football and take advantage of that. You know, and the Chiefs have been good at running the ball this year, like especially the last five weeks. So Baltimore...

It's come along in the last five weeks. They had their hiccups there in the middle of the year where it was like, what has happened to Andy Reed's run game? but now, you know, Andy Reid, as he's won to do, has been fantastic in the playoffs and is bringing all the heat in the playoffs in the run game and the past game. They went through the same molding last year where they couldn't run the ball. And then all of a sudden it was like week 13, week 14, Reed literally said in the press comments, we're going to figure out how to run the ball.

And then from then on it was like, oh, the run game's actually a problem. It was Pacheco, it was McKinnon. It was, I feel like they. had someone else that was C.H is just kind of man, but same thing this year. They didn't run the ball well early in the year, but they are, they're a run heavy team now. I shouldn't say heavy. Like when they run the ball, they're very successful running it. So anyways, who are you taking in this game, Steve?

Oh, I have toiled over it. I'm, God, I hate doing it, but I'm going to take Baltimore. I hate picking against my homes, but I just think that. Baltimore's playmakers will make less mistakes. Really? These are probably two of the more mistake-laden. I know. Bill Department of the NFL.

It is. These are the two teams where you've actually seen receivers lose games for these teams. By the way, did you watch the Chiefs game last week, right? Yeah, of course. Some of the catches MVS made blew my mind. in that game. I'm like, you can make that catch, but you'll drop a screen ball or a slant that hits you right in the face? Like, what the? Props to Kansas City, props to Mahomes, props to Andy Reed, props to the receivers coach for hanging in there with him. There are a lot of teams.

There are a lot of teams where MVS would not be seeing the field the way he does. Now, does it help that he has the cast of, you know, people behind him that are ready to take his job that are not making the most thrilling plays behind him? Probably. But, you know, I mean, we've talked about it with like Brady constantly about how, you know, in his career when receivers would mess up, you know, they quickly lose favor and they'd quickly be out of there. this what mohomes has endured in the way that in a high leverage situation he still is able to confidently target mvS and mvS you know makes the plays he did this week that's i mean that's why the chiefs are what they are i think for sure again you know it goes back to like it goes back to kind of that authenticity thing of like Andy reed will stand by a lot of his guys constantly and that

you know, this is the payoff for that. Yeah, 100%. And to be fair, it's not like they had a lot of options, right? Like, there wasn't a lot of people available to acquire mid-season there. So they kind of had to make it work. You know, it's, what are you going to put Cadarius Tony or Skymore out there instead? Like, I don't know if those are more reliable options.

But hey, either way, you know, he made plays in, you know, the most high leverage situation of the season. And, you know, props to him, props to them for, standing in and enduring that for sure all right let let's move on to the nfc championship game are at the detroit lions take on the san francisco 49ers in san francisco steve this is obviously this game means a lot to us i'm not going to rehash that for the 300th time um but yeah we're we're lions guys lions doing well yay cool yeah um first first first point I want to make about this game

and Steve we talk team building incessantly on this podcast is probably the thing we focus on the most because I think it's the most interesting aspect of football. Team building 101 though. When a GM gets a job and he's looking around at his division his conference

it's pretty common stance for that GM to start building a roster to compete with the big boys of that division and it's to me it's pretty evident that when the Lions constructed this of this, sorry, this roster, obviously culture was first and foremost the thing they look for, but where they wanted to be strong and what they're good at, it is part of their identity,

but it's also the things you have to do to beat the San Francisco 49ers, who are the cream of the crop of the conference. They have been for, obviously, they had like a down year a few years ago, but they've been in multiple NFC championship games. This is their second, well, this would be their second Super Bowl appearance if they, if they win in the Shanahan era. So So yes, that said, what Brad Holmes has done in Detroit is clearly to compete with the likes of San Francisco and Dallas and Philadelphia. You kind of all beat them the same way. Yeah. Yeah.

So this roster, so when I look at this matchup on paper, I'm left way more optimistic than I was before this matchup. you know once once it became official that we'd be going to the same i said we that's not good i mean i know i i'm creeping in oh shoot i caught myself doing that last week and i was like oh crap yeah i've never been a we guy either it's easy to not be a we guy when your team is terrible it is um when the lions when the lions traveled the san francisco you know when that when that was first announced i was i was a little like oh man that's a really tough matchup but we've been talking about all year, Steve. The lines are set up to beat the 49ers. And I think that is still true. And especially if Debo doesn't go, a couple points, I'll make a couple points and I'll toss back to you.

We kind of have a little back and forth about it. But the main thing is, is Detroit's run game, specifically their zone run game. So they've pivoted away from this man gap concept. They were hammering early in the year. They were running a ton of counter, a ton of power, some pole lead. They're not doing that anymore. It's like a really, zone heavy team. The last five weeks, I think Jamir Gibbs, sorry, last five weeks of the regular season, Jamir Gibbs led all running backs on zone carries.

I think that's true. Or he's top five or something like that. His yards per carry on said plays is like 5.6. The 49ers are awful against zone carries. They allow like 4.6 yards per carry the last five weeks over the season, it's over five. I know on paper, when you go into our data, if you go to the FainterPoints, data.com, new look up,

adjusted yards before contact per carry for defenses. San Fran looks good, especially the last five weeks. I think their number is like 1.35, which is true. But when you adjust for game script, because another one of these teams that have blown a lot of teams out, when you look at games in which they are ahead by seven points or less or down,

they cannot stop the run, Steve. It's evident all season. It's how the Eagles destroyed them in the conference. championship last year. And the lines are set up to move the ball against his defense. The other point I was going to make as far as the Lions' offense goes

is, I guess there's two. We've seen it all year. I've made this point a million times. When you can pass protect against the 49ers, you can move the football. Every game they've lost this year has been against a team that can pass protect. And then they almost lost, they should have lost

last week to Green Bay, who is probably the only team that pass protects better than the Lions. Yeah. I think good things are coming that way. The last point, the covered shells that the 49ers deploy, they play a ton of cover three. Their three most used coverage shells are cover three, cover four, and cover one. And those just happen to align up perfectly with what golf is good at. He annihilates cover three.

He's good against a single high man. And he's really good against quarters. I think he's got a pat on all three of those concepts, his pass rating the season's like one, ten. when you combine them. So the big issue is going to be, can Detroit's defense get four stops? They need four stops. They get four stops that can win the game.

I'm not sure they can, but Steve, let me toss to you and get your input here. So for the Detroit offense versus San Fran defense, I agree, you know, I think it's going to be a run heavy script. I think they're going to try to control the ball. That's going to be the whole bonus of it.

The big thing is that, you know, there are two, two spaces that Goff operates in a lot and he operates well in. And that's throwing over the middle and that's play action passes. And those are going to be two things that are going to be crucial in this game. Because obviously, you know, running the ball that you're going to get behind the script at some point and you're going to have to put the ball in the air. And Jared Goff throwing over the middle, 104.2 pass rating. That's 11th. He has the second most passing yards when throwing over the middle. 7.9% completion percentage over expected over the middle. Who's ahead of him, Stroud? Yeah, I think it was.

I forget who it was. Okay. I'm pretty sure who was ahead of it. I think it was Stroud. So that's all good. He's, you know, right near top 10 or top 10. And, you know, almost every metric one throwing over the middle. And the other side, San Fran,

defends the middle better than just about anyone. They give up a 65.8 passer rating, which is the second in the league. And they give up a minus 1.1. 2% completion percentage over expected, which is third in league. So that's a huge matchup there is can Ben Johnson and can Ben Johnson scheme up an offense that gets guys open over the middle despite that linebacking group? Because that's, you know, I think that those are, they're the guys that make those

stats for San Fran what they are. I know we're we've always been pretty big linebackers don't matter. But, you know, these, there's a few. I was going to say, if there are a few instances where they do, and this is between Greenlawn, Warner, they matter. And, you know, can Ben Johnson scheme up plays over the middle that are going to, because that, you know, you can, you can see it when Jared Goff plays that that is where he wants to live constantly. He all, you know, he's always looking for his target over the middle, whether it seems, in routes, slants, even, you know, even, uh, angle routes from running backs, middle of the field is where he wants to be. So that's, you know, That's a big matchup. And then the other area is play action passing. Jared Gough has the third most play action of passing attempts this year.

He has a 117. He has a 117. He threw for the second most yards. He only had a 2.8% completion percentage over expected, which was 23rd, and just a 74% catchable ball rate on play action passes, which was 27th, but still the stats, the yards, the pass rating. That's all there. On the flip side, Sanfran doesn't.

operate against play action as well as like as you know as I was talking about them operating over the middle they do give up a 5.9% completion percentage over expected which is 25th and they gave up a 97.3 pass rating which is 18th so I think marriage you know the marriage between those two things the play action passing and throwing over the middle that is where I think the story of this game will be is can Laporta can Reynolds can St. Brown win against these linebackers and operate over the middle and get open over the middle. Yeah, ironically, they got really good practice last week against the Bucks because the Bucks are good over the middle as well. Levante David's probably the other linebacker in the NFL that truly does matter.

And he gave them hell their first matchup. So they did get practice with, I mean, I think Detroit runs dagger probably better than any team not named Miami in the league. Yeah, they get to it in some of the. best in most exotic ways. Yep, they've got, they've always comes open. It's different looks. Yeah, I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's really good. They're, they run Yankee at a high level as well, which is another MOF concept there.

But one thing I noticed on tape last week is golf did purposely attack outside the numbers a little more than usual. They, they ran so quick hitches. I think back to that anticipation throw to JMO down the sideline, like they did attack the boundary. and they have the pass pro to do so. This might be set up for a big J-mo game. They're going to need him to make some plays out there. St. Brown will always get his, even if it's... Yeah.

I think he had 18 yards going into the fourth quarter last week and then caught five passes for 60 to end the day with a touchdown. I think this could be a week you see Amun Rae St. Brown lineup outside more. We've seen it a couple times when the Detroit lines have played this year. I think this could be a game where they do try to get him. matched up against Ambrie Thomas. Yeah, for sure. And that's exactly where you want to attack this 49ers defense.

Actually, all their corners are beatable. Travis Ward is the best of the bunch. Obviously, he's having a great season. But the amount he has to press, even when they're in those zone looks, he plays a lot of press. He gets beat deep, you know, a decent amount. But Lenore and Ambrie Thomas are definitely beatable. I would imagine the lines try to exploit that.

I'm interested to see what they do from a personnel standpoint, Steve, because, you know, no, no Brock Wright, James Mitchell's on IR. Yeah. Fencer was really bad last week. I thought anyways, I don't, I don't, that might not be like prevailing opinion. I didn't think he was very good. And they're allegedly signing Zach Ertz to the practice squad. It hasn't happened yet, though. Sources, my sources inside the building say that Zacherts arrived to the practice facility today.

Oh, okay. I was going to say if he's not going to practice I mean their first big practice is Wednesday so I guess that's okay. If you didn't show up today though I'd say it's not happening. He's there. He's in the building. He showed up for breakfast. Okay. Cool. That's legit.

Yeah, no, that's legit. Yeah, that's legit. All right. Well, so even still, how much of the playbook is he going to know? Like, can they really? Because they like to live in 12 personnel a lot. Yeah. They're over 20% right, Steve on the season, I think? Yeah, right around there. So I'm wondering if they have to pivot a little more to

21 this week with Cambinda on the field a little bit more. Sure. Because they probably trust him more than they trust, the guy they just signed or even FERC daddy at this point. Yeah. Or maybe they stick with 12 personnel. They go 12H with Dan Skipper as the other tight end spot. We did see that against the Rams.

Skipper played a ton in that game as the second tight end. So, I mean, it's possible. I'm just curious what they'll do with personnel. We should probably quickly talk. Oh, go ahead. I was to say, I wouldn't be surprised if they went with Skipper and they went more heavy personnel and they tried to push that ball outside because that's where that's where sandfran's run defense is you know susceptible is when the outside outside rushes outside zone yeah and erin jones

murked them last week yeah getting more getting more uh more weight outside and helping seal that edge i think could be part of the game plan yeah that's a good point no obviously we got to pivot to the 49ers offense a little bit i think this one's a little more simple because the lions covered juna is bad the lions have their defense is molded this year they they've The last six, seven weeks now, they've gone to this completely opportunistic, kind of resembles a Brian Flores, Todd Bowles' defense even, where heavy blitzes, heavy. Their blitz rate in the playoffs so far has been like over 44%,

which is a lot. The pressure rate on those blitzes is through the roof as well. Aidan Hutchinson's having his breakout moment. He's had a couple now, but it's like every time it's better and longer sustained. He's on a tear right now. long story short the 49ers are merchants of creating big plays they should get plenty of opportunities to do so in this game as well yeah i know debo is it sounds like he's likely to miss now that's huge of the lines because he is their zone beater and the lines the last few weeks have

gone uh when they blitz they've gone less blitz man coverage to more like fire zone type stuff yeah um and debo would be the way to crack that obviously with those shallow crossers the design touches you know you're going to play like that that soft fire zone against us we will we will murder you with debo forced you to tackle him if he's not playing that's huge you're going to get probably sutton on i yuk a lot um they did you and i discovered yesterday they did shadow mike evans officially yep which they did that they did that the first matchup against the bucknees too which is interesting because it's it was the only really the only matchup all year um in the regular season that the lions had sutton shadow anyone and then they and they did

it again. So it was interesting. Jerry Jacobs missed that game, if I remember right, too. No, Jacobs was in that game. They were down six defensive starters, I think, that game. Yeah, it was crazy. They had a bunch of people out that game. But yeah, so anyways, they could possibly shadow with Ayuk again.

Either way, they're going to see each other a lot. Yeah. That's winnable, whether Ayukes on Vildor or Sutton, that's a winnable matchup for Iyuk. I'm having nightmares of Iyuk just shredding Sutton on double moves over and over. Like we saw, was it, was Evans that hit the, no, it was Puka Nakua hit the double move against Sutton a couple weeks ago. Yeah.

Evans was just beating him straight up down the field. Yes. But it's interesting because it seems, it seems to be part of the Detroit Lions strategy almost to a point. And obviously I'm not inside the building. I have no idea what their defensive game plan is. But it seems to be that they're almost wanting to funnel tar. targets to one guy.

And it's, it's just like, all right, you know, we can let that guy. And they've done it for the last, I mean, shoot, seven weeks, even into the regular season, you go back to like the Dallas game. It seems that there. Yeah, it's just like, you know what, that we'll, they'll let a wide receiver one have his day. Yep. And if anything, we'll try and funnel targets to him to the point where eventually, you know, someone's going to make a mistake eventually the you know the defense can key in on that and make a play and

you know that it just that seems to be part of what they want to do yeah it's kind of it's too funneled the ball to the wider see everyone it's a weird strategy but hey it's it's it's kind of working it's no it's it's it's crazy how i mean it sounds insane but it's truly kind of what they're doing um it yeah it's it's almost like everything they do is predicated on making the offense predictable. So we're going to stop the run and get you in an obvious passing situation. And then not only we're going to get you an obvious passing situation, we're going to try to make you throw it to the same guy all day.

And then when you get in the red zone and we know that's what you want to do, that's when we take him away. And then also, like I said, they're super opportunistic. They're going to try to get home with the Blitz. When they do, they force turnovers. They get a lot of drive-ending sacks. I think the broadcast the other night did a good job of explaining how, when a quarterback gets blitzed and sacked,

it's different than when he's in the pocket, and it's just a four-man rush because he usually escapes. And those sacks tend to go for three, four yards. When you hit a blitz on a quarterback, he's usually, you're catching him at the top of his drop, right? So he's getting sacked eight, nine, ten yards behind the line of scrimmages. Those are drive-killing sacks. So I do think the, like I said,

I think the key to this game is the lines have to get four stops on defense. They can get four stops. I think they can score enough points to win. They had eight stops against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yeah. Yeah, it'll be interesting. What their blitz strategy against Mayfield, it was, I thought it was really smart. They basically said, we don't think that you know how to shift protection the right way.

If we give you a decent amount of blitz, you know, a look of multiple guys blitzing, we don't think you can push the pressure in the right direction. I wonder if they'll do this, if they'll do similar things to Baker because what they were, you know, what they were doing, sorry, not against Baker against Brock. Because what they were doing against Baker was they'd motion over a slot to the other side of the field. They'd bump that slot, that corner that was on him. And then they'd send the blitz because they basically, you know, it, you would, they would shift the protection, the opposite side with the, with the motion guy going. And then they'd bring that backside blitz. And that was where he, you know, Malifanu and Branch got him three times.

So it'll be interesting to see if they'll test the protection rules for San Fran. I wonder if they'll test that right side of the line a little bit more and try and put some pressure on that right side of the line. Instead of kind of going at Trent Williams trying to come from, you know, what I guess you would, you know, you would definitively say is the weaker side of their offensive line. It'll be interesting to see if they'll test the protection rules of that right tackle and right guard for San Fran. And, you know, kind of send some more of the fire zone a little bit more. of like spinner looks and whatnot. Yeah. The real test is Brock Purdy.

So like he has not done well under pressure at times this season. And he has, he's had a lot of turnover luck. And he even got away with a lot in that Green Bay game. And, you know, it seems like there's a meltdown game coming where if he's getting pressured, he's going to put the ball in harm's way. The lines will need to capitalize on those moments.

The Green Bay did not. Green Bay had three dropped interceptions. They had a pretty at a time of that ball. Yeah, pick six drop. Pretty had another one over the middle that didn't hit a defender's hands, but the defender didn't realize the ball was there. Literally like skimmed his helmet almost. He was like, oh, shoot, could have caught that one.

Yeah. So ultimately the lines will need to get some of that turnover luck on their side. Who you take it in the game? Gosh. I'm going to be a homer. I'm going to pick Detroit. And it's purely based off of excitement for it. You know, last point is...

You're admitting the homerism. I am. I will fully admit it. I'm, you know, it's... I can't help it at this point. But it'll be a good game. One thing to watch that's been interesting is the Detroit run defense has been susceptible in the playoffs these last two weeks compared to what they were in the regular

season. The regular season, they were, you know, obviously one of the most stout run defenses in the NFL. They've been a little bit a little bit leakier. Teams have done a good job of giving them changeups. So I think they're still in the playoffs the best first down run defense in the league of the playoff teams. Where they've gotten caught is, oh, cool, it's second and ten. We're going to sit back and play coverage now because it's going to be a pass. And then they've gotten got, I think Rashad White had a 15-yard run the other day.

In that scenario, I know Kyron Williams, his two big runs, both came on second long as well. Yeah. Before that. So that's definitely something to watch. They're going to have to make a little bit of a site adjustment. I think teams now know what the Lions game plan is. Like stop the run, get an obvious passing situation.

And shoot, we know Shane Han loves his second and 10 runs as well. Yes, he does. Yes, he does. Yeah. I, from an analytical standpoint, if you want, why I'm picking Detroit is that this, I think this game comes down to a coaching decision. And these are two coaches that are polar opposite sides of the aggressiveness scale and the, you know, the making the quote unquote analytical decision. And this game could come down to San Fran punting it or San Fran, you know, kicking a field goal in a situation where they probably should go for it.

Whereas Dan Campbell on the flip side, I think, you know, I don't think. I know that, you know, and what is the biggest game of the year? for them, obviously, I think he'll push the envelope a little bit more in some of those high leverage situations. I think that this game could come down to that. It could come down to who's the more aggressive coach in those high leverage situations in those fourth and short, third and short, just, you know, game-changing situations. And, you know, Detroit has what I think is a distinct coaching advantage there. And I think that that could be the difference in this. You're spot on. When I told our counterpart, Chris, that I

thought the key to this game for the lines was getting four or five stops. He very quickly reminded me, well, you're going to get one for free because Shanahan will give you one. He will point in the situation. He'll kick a field goal in a situation. He'll give you a stop somewhere along the line. So he's like, so you need one less of whatever you think you need. And I think that was a great point by him.

I agree with you. I'm also taking the line, Steve. And it's mostly because I've been saying all season long, this roster is built to beat the 49ers. I can't back down now. You know, I just can't back down now. I really felt that way. Pretty much the whole year.

The team I was most worried about was the Eagles, and they fell apart. You know, mobile quarterback thing there. But yeah, so here we go. We're both taking the lines. Calls, homers, doesn't matter to us. Detroit versus everybody. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.

All right, guys, have a good one. We'll be back. Actually, I'm in Mobile. for the Senior Bowl next week. So I will likely, we'll either do an episode live for Mobile. Maybe Joe Dolan will be my co-host that day or Steve and Chris can do one.

If Chris's baby doesn't come. I don't know, we'll figure it out, but there will be a Take Talk next week. Not sure how that's going to come out, but you'll get one. And we'll have lots of draft and Senior Bowl talk as well coming soon. All right, guys.

I'm Brett Whitefield. This is Stephen O'Rourke, and we are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform and come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.