Fantasy Football Daily - Dangerous Dynasty Narratives That Can Crush Your Rosters + Real Trades | Dynasty Points Market Report

Episode Date: November 10, 2024

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Helps us a ton. It just helps us a ton. You guys have been absolutely phenomenal. We got a fun packed show today. We are going to do things that annoyed us this week in the dynasty community got a good one for that we have got something i kind of want to touch on now which is something that we just kind of had a conversation about which is production confirming price and we'll get into what that means in a minute we have trades that

we have made ourselves that we're going to talk about then of course we're going to get into the most traded players we have a couple players on the docket that we're going to get into and what their trade value is and kind of talk of what to do with them. And then we've got our savant plays of the week, which I got to tell you, Andy, I look like a genius. I look really smart right now with my savant call last week. So we're going to get into it. You've got J.T. Sanders.

I hit last week. We're going to go this week and see what happens. We're going to continue to crush it. But first off, as always, let's talk about what annoyed you in the dynasty community this week. So my thing is, it's been annoying me the last few weeks. It's leaving trades in an inbox, but you look at them. I'd rather you just decline or if you don't want to counter, that's fine, but continuing to leave trades pending for a long period of time has this really, it's really bothered me. We need to respond, do something. Even if, like I said, even if you hate it, just decline it. We leave it for a few days and then we get into the thing where people want to accept it if like bad news happens. Like if you had a Chuba Hubbard offer in your inbox today and you forgot. And, like, that's on you partly, but people are going to smash the client after the contract news. That's just corny to me. So I think you should try to, especially in-season, try to respond to trades within two days, I would say.

Especially in-season. Off-season, maybe a week. But the leave-and-trade-pending thing, I hate that. That's why I used to hate the exploding offer thing on Sleeper, but now I make sure I use that all the time. I think it's a good setting. But yeah, that's been really, that's really bothered me. Please respond to trades. I'm hit or miss on this

people that know me know pretty well that like sometimes I just don't I don't hate an offer don't like an offer if it's a player I'm not quick to move I'm not quick to counter either a lot of times I'm just indifferent on it

and then I forget that it's there a lot of times because I'm just a busy person I've got stuff going on and I'm kind of an idiot so I just forget that it is there. I will say, like, if you have left a trade and you didn't pull it and it gets accepted, it is a million percent on you.

One million percent, that's on you. That's your responsibility. I don't leave trades. I send them. I pull them after a day. I go back. I write down where I've sent them, and then I go and I go and pull them. Like, generally speaking, if I'm in a trading mood, I'm just,

going to look to go and get that deal done or it gets declined like it's not something if someone's not responding to a trade but at the same time if you trade for someone and like something bad happens it's like you have to bake that in to what was expected in the range of outcomes anyway it makes it's just less of a difference if you get somebody after like if you've left a trade in an inbox and that player got hurt and that person accepted it it only hurts that little bit more because you didn't pull it. It's still would have sucked just as bad. If you got that player and then that week,

that guy's leg explodes. Like it's, it's a shitty thing to do, right? If that person who didn't, you know, accept the trade before, accepts it after like an injury or something.

But, I mean, it's still on you 100%. No, I agree. I just think it's, I think it's, I personally,

I wouldn't do that. I like, I've had trades pending before that I've left a couple of days. Something's happened. I've mess just a guy. I made sure he still wanted to do the deal if I accepted it. I just think that's a dirty thing to do.

But I wouldn't do it for an injury, but I've done, I did it with the answer, Anthony Richardson thing. I waited until Sunday. The guy had had Jared Gough for Richardson. We talked about it on the show. He had it in the inbox for like six days.

I watched the first half of Anthony Richardson and I accepted the deal. I saw he went two for 15 and I was like, boom. And I took it. And then it turns out he got benched. It's like, all right. Well, if you were sending that offer anyway,

you know, not only was it lower. risk for you but you had to expect that like maybe if you're taking anthony richardson something bad could happen so to me that's kind of still on you it's that's not on me that's what it is now if he had gotten hurt or something i just wouldn't have i just wouldn't have done the deal i would have just you know cried about having anthony richardson plus him being hurt but that just is what it is i agree for the most part but if you're just ignoring trades get get in your inbox and then you wonder why can't get trades done well if people don't like you

you, less likely to trade with you. That's just a fact. I feel attacked. You feel? What annoyed me is Narrative Street this week. The dynasty community loves narratives and this bothers me. I'm never going to actionably give or try to give actionable advice that is based on three things needing to happen. You know why? We can't predict three things happening. We can't predict anything. We don't know anything. We don't know what's going to happen.

They drafted Jonathan Brooks. There's no way Chuba Hubbard is going to end up there. They'll just ride them out and let them out. Guess what? Four year contract with significant guaranteed money, 15, if I'm not mistaken. It's like, well, guess what? That thing that you had, there's no way could happen. Happened.

Now look what you're holding. Oh, JSN, there's no way they're going to keep Tyler Lockett. There's no way they're going to feature Tyler Lockett still. Gear 2 breakout for JSN guaranteed. And outside of two games, you would be woefully incorrect. Two insane games, mind you. They are insane. Good enough to prop them to like wider receiver 13 or 14.

But the narrative was there's no way they keep Lockett. And then it was there's no way they feature Lockett first. Well, that narrative got you in trouble if you bought excessively high and just didn't pay attention to the market anyway. We have data on stuff. We have information. We have the market. We can analyze it rationally.

If you need to build a series of narratives to happen for something to happen, I'm going to bet against it probably. And I'm just going to continue to play the market that we have and the information that we have in store. Because a lot of the times that narrative, it doesn't hold any weight in trades. Like we're going to talk about the DeAndre Hopkins perceived price. change. We're going to talk about that because that came up today. And I feel like it's actually kind of important to talk about in this situation. But I don't know, man, it drives me nuts.

It makes me crazy when we just get narrative, narrative, narrative, narrative, and it would continue to just be able to play the market with the data that we actually have and how you apply it. Again, it's not for everyone, but I personally am driven crazy by this narrative thing. We did it and we did it with Trey Lance right? Oh, it's going to happen. We're still doing it. Oh, just wait. He just needs Dack to get hurt.

Just needs Dack to get hurt. Then his Trey Lance season, he's going to fix his value. They're starting Cooper Rush. Like, it's never going to happen. So we need to get over the narrative for it. I feel like it kind of clouds your judgment and locks in player takes. It gives you take luck, in my opinion, if you folks. too heavily on narrative what say you Andy Buckler I agree I think we need to look at things

like rationally we do the thing with with like Jalen Waddle where we talk about when Tyreek Hill leaves and Tyrie Kill leaves I mean there's nothing about we'll get into Jalen Wattle but when we do things like that we talk about two years the Tyree Kill could be gone in two years they can also just do something else in the two years we they've seen Jailon Waddle by himself and they went out and got Terry Kill so I don't like doing that Some things you can come out rationally and you can look at certain things and you could try to make a bet based on that. But when we start going really, really deep into like we want players to leave, get traded, things like that, that doesn't usually happen. But you could look at certain things rationally.

Like, for instance, like Trey Benson this year, obviously it hasn't really worked out because James Connor looks like the best he's ever looked. But that is a rational bet in a rookie draft where you can say James Connor 29 years old. on a team looking to go younger, you could try to bet in the future of him eventually being gone in a year. And that could still happen, but he's played really well where it probably won't happen. That's a good bet, but when we start doing other things like that,

that's where I agree with you. I think we don't like, I think if you make majority bets based on narrative, you're going to be wrong probably 80% of the time. So we shouldn't do that. The Tyler Lockett thing is a great example. He'll probably be back again next year too, so they didn't trade them again.

So, yeah, I agree with most of that. Right. And I talk to Ryan about this. Ryan Heath about this of the dynasty points, obviously, if you're listening to this, you know Ryan. But we were discussing that today, and I said it's a say he wrote up JSN in the everything report. And I was talking about how we can't expect rational coaching.

And he said, yeah, great example. Look at today. Rational team management would have been not give Hubbard money for that roster. But here we are. And I said, because I had mentioned like, maybe they bring Locket back and if they don't bring lock it back maybe they bring in just another wide receiver and he goes I don't really see that happening and well there's a lot of things that we don't see happening until they do happen and now we're scrambling like someone will say there's

no way player X is going to have to deal with this this and this and then it happens and then that same person that gave that advice will go oh player X is now dealing with this I hope you were planning to adjust it's like no that's not how it's not how it's works that's already too late so it every I think we need to really have a better discussion about range of outcomes and why it's important and how to bake it in correctly because too often it's just being assumed and then it happened and it's like oh how could I have how could I've seen that coming it's like the Eric D'Andre meme right you shoot someone and how could they let this happen. If you just applied range of outcome theory a little bit stronger to the cause,

I would say you would already have been more prepared. So that really drives me nuts. I don't mind talking narratives because like you said, some of them you can like come at reasonably. But for the most part, I'm just always going to take the market. I'm always going to use the data we have and try to make the best educated guesses that we can. I think that's fair. I think that's where we want ever said yeah I think that's where we're at all right that's what take this off we're gonna take our first break

and we come back we are diving into our most recent trades ourselves and some of the most traded players and recent deals that we can find on the market sit tight okay back at it let's talk about our own trades

because we talk about trades that we see we talk about trades that go down all the time but very rarely buck In fact, never on this here program have we discussed our own. So let's kind of pull the curtain back a little bit and dive into our own deals. Let's create it right into it. What are my goodness, what is a deal that you have done here recently that you want to talk about? So I have two deals.

They're actually both in the same league. So I have a league where I'm contending. I've won two straight championships. I'm six and three this year, but the team just hasn't been as good as I wanted to be kind of noticed the teams around me get a lot better. My team get a lot older. And it has players that I kind of want to get out of even though they're helping me win. I just want to get out of them before I get to the offseason. My team looks like it's in really bad shape and no one wants to buy these players.

I think now is the best time to sell some of these players. Last week I sold Travis Kelsey for Tucker Kraft, which took a massive, you know, a point swing for my team. But I decided to do it. I sold him to the best team in the league as well. So I just decided like I just have to get out now. And then so I traded Rico Dowdo, who was a player I had never used. He was like my RB5 on the team. Didn't even realize how good he's been.

I got a third third in Dallas got it for him, like buying Dallas got it right now, a non-titan premium league, just a guy that I think maybe I could flip later and I can use because my only other tight end is Kraft and he's on a buy this week. And then my other deal was Mike, I traded Mike Evans, which is a big deal because he was a player on my team that really, really produces. He's my flex. I lost Stefan Diggs. I am at Pooka most of this season,

and C.D. Lamb is in a lot of his hurt. So trading Mike Evans was kind of like accepting the fact that I'm really going to make a switch here. And I'm not going to, like I'm going to take a significant amount of points out of my lineup. And I sold for the current 202. Looks like it should probably stay at the 202. It's like a bit, he has a lot less points than the third team.

He's really bad. So it should stay at the 202. And then I got Chuba Hubbard before the contract. Chuba was a player I liked. I just thought he was a good player. I was kind of betting on a free agency thing with him. That's why I wanted him. It kind of happened for better or for worse,

but he at least has more value so I can use him or I could flip him. But those are two deals that I made. And now I'm still upwards contending, but now I'm more so contending with needing luck instead of contending as the favorite. But I still wanted to get off some of these players so I could have some value. I had no picks for three years.

I had all my picks in 27, no 25s, no 26es. Now I have three seconds and 25, a bunch of threes and a second and 26. So at least I could have some maneuvering do something because my team was very consolidated with like four studs and nothing else. So I wanted to make those deals. And what do you think about them?

Yeah, I think they're totally fine. On the Chuba thing, we're going to talk a little bit more about that probably next week. I want to kind of see how this weekend plays out in Germany, how they use Brooks. Like does he actually look just dust, dust? I think we have some information together

more before we speak on it. But overall, I think this is a perfectly, fine deals. These are perfectly fine deals. We talked a lot about this in the article Herms and I co-wrote on FantasyPoints.com about how to make moves for a high value

roster while getting a little bit more liquidity, how to still be active. You don't have to tear it all the way down to the bones. You can kind of do both. He's kind of hit on that. I'm with you on the Goddard thing. He had a lot of name carry

when Ertz left and he was kind of in that fifth, the sixth round startup price and tight-end premium leagues. We've seen him be able to produce, so I definitely like buying him as low as he is. I don't mind giving away Dowdle. I don't think he's long for the Dallas Cowboys. Giving up Evans is tough. We're going to talk about Evans.

I just traded for him. But for, you know, that early two plus two, but I think it's overall fine. It is risky, like you said. But at some point, you do have to start cutting loose some of that veteran chain. Considering I just paid a second straight up for Mike Evans, which we're we're going to talk about right now. Yeah, I don't mind it at all.

A couple of trades that I have done contending team kind of in that fourth, fifth, but the points four is a little bit better than that. A little bit higher than that. I bought Breeshall, Chuba Hubbard, and Mike Evans

for two mid to late first. I don't think either one of these first have a chance to fall out of the outside of the playoffs at all. A 26 second and a 26 third. So this breaks down me as, you know, two firsts or more like a first and a half for Breece Hall, a second and a third for Mike Evans,

and that extra second value from the two first moves kind of into that, in that Chuba Hubbard territory. So I'm fine with this deal. I love Mike Evans' schedule down the stretch. They got three games till their buyweek. So even if he's not back, let's say 100% until week 12, that schedule is nasty. It is

league winning potential nasty for how this offense is operating and I understand that he wasn't like the guy before he got hurt, but he was still more than serviceable with 20 point upside, 23 points, 23 points, 23 points, then he gets hurt.

The touchdown machine after the buy, Giants, Panthers, Raiders, chargers, Cowboys, Panthers. Go and buy Evans now if you're contending and somebody does want to get rid of them and pay that second price worth the gamble for league winning potential 100%. So I like that deal myself. I have a lot of value still left, right?

So I have a second round pick this year, third, multiple fourths. I've still got a first next year. Still have a second next year, an extra one I had picked up. So it's not like I liquidated all of my high value assets and I've still got high value assets on my roster for it. So I like this deal. This is a good structured deal for a team making a legitimate push. So let's talk about that one. How do we feel? I like the deal. I agree on a lot of the Evan's stuff. We haven't seen him yet without Godwin. He got hurt in the same game. Godwin got hurt. So we don't even know how the targets will go. And we can do a narrative thing here

that actually probably will come true is that they're going to force feed him at the end of the season to thousand yards for his 11th straight season or whatever i mean that's just going to happen they do care about that for sure it's obvious they do so week 17 he's probably in for like a 10 for 220 and 4 like i mean it just is what he does that every he has one of those every year anyway so i i like the deal i think you got you know hall who's a second round startup pick and then some really good points players and chuba is only growing in value so even now like right now he's like still at a second but he'll be really good rest of season thing he's the rb5 and the year. He's been very good. And even if they bring Brooks back, Brooks is on the active roster

for this week, but that doesn't mean he's going to play. They had to open up his, or they had to activate him on by Wednesday of this week to make sure he can't not play the whole season because it didn't activate him on Wednesday. He would be out the whole year. So just because he's activated, it doesn't mean he'll actually play in the game. So we'll see what happens with that. I doubt he plays very much. So I like to deal a lot for you. I think it's a good trade. Love that. Next one we're going to talk about I'm again contending on this team need some more points on the roster I traded Jalen waddle and a 25 third or dk METCAf I love this deal because I in the start of the season I valued them kind of the same we know what dK metcalf's role is in this new offense I love it I love this

shot and I think worst case scenario waddle and metcalf just still end up being the same type of player and points anyway. So I love this deal. To me, this is the perfect pivot off of Waddle, especially being able to make that move while Waddle is struggling because DK is a little bit banged up is massive for me. This is perfect timing. JSN just popped off.

Waddle's been struggling and DK is hurt, but we have enough information on the two players to know kind of how this is going to go. I am again another team A little bit higher in the points four Just kind of lacking in that flex spot I love this deal for me What say you?

I like it I want to give you shit Just to give you shit but I can on this one I think Waddle is a perfect Like just a player we want to get rid of honestly And to even still be able to get a player As good as DK and not actually having to give up anything You have a third Like to not have to go up a two or like a player

With any type of value to get to him I think it's a perfect trade and I would love to do that deal. I think Waddle still has the name value, still has some of the value, but he should be like multiple tiers down at this point. And DK is like a three, four turn pick and startups. And I mean, Waddle should be in the sixth at least, especially if T. Higgum's was in the six a couple weeks ago,

Waddle should definitely be there. So I like this deal a lot. I think you paid significantly lower than what it should cost to get up to DK. Yeah, I love that you're saying that you want to find a way to give you shit, but I'm just navigating the, getting shit from Andy Buckler Waters right now perfectly.

I think those are the only deals. I think those are the deals that we're going to talk about today. Actually, you know what? No, I have one more. It's way riskier. There's a little bit of division stuff, leading the division gets you into the playoffs.

It's kind of a Mickey Mouse setup in terms of league play. But I needed some more points on my roster. My flex spots are rough. I moved, and it's also fairly short benches. So I moved Tajay Spears a 26 second and a 26 third for David and Joku and Jokobie Myers. Obviously, I think Joku is basically just a wide receiver flex play every week,

not even just tight end in that offense. And then Jacobi Myers is stunting. Like he's really good. We did briefly talk about him on the Dynasty Point show this last week where he's not like an alpha, but given the opportunity, he can hold it down, 15 points, 14 points, game, slide him into the flex. I can bump Amari Cooper out of my lineup. It is kind of significant draft capital for next year on a team that doesn't have a lot

of it, but on the second most points four in this league could really make a push. I don't mind this. I feel even personally this one is a bit of a reach to me. What say you? I'll be honest. I love this trade. Oh, hey, there we go. I was waiting to get, I was waiting to get shit here.

No, I actually think Tai J. Spears at this point. is kind of a zero. It sucks. I think he's a talented player. Me too. I think he's a talented guy. I think he really could play, but Tony Pollard's been great. And Tadge, the injury stuff has kind of cut up. We thought maybe, you know, he was really healthy as a rookie. You thought it'd be fine. It's cut up to him. He's still out with a hamstring. So he's just kind of a zero. It sucks. Maybe we could like make a case for him later in a different show that you can buy him because he definitely is at rock bottom value. I know I would accept anything for him and I liked him. But for Jacoby Myers, I mean, just for him, I think the trade's fair.

Over the last two games since Jacoia Myers, it came back for injury is a 27% target share, 91% of the routes, 7.6a. 8.3% area yard share, 25% targets for outrun, a pretty much a 40% first read, and he's averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game with 14 catches 15% yards and a touchdown on 17 targets in two games since he's been back healthy. So he's not just producing as a wide receiver at 1 over two games. Yeah, he's also the guy stunting fan favorite Brock Bowers right now, which I think is kind of important to look at. So yeah, he's good. Like we know he's good. He's been good everywhere. Yeah, and very affordable.

Yeah, you just can't have an alpha receiver on the other side. That's when he struggles. Yeah, you know, there's a team in New England that could use a receiver like him to give his young quarterback a weapon. But they should have went for him at the trade deadline. I'm telling you. So that's the trades that we've done. We're going to come back after another quick break. We're going to get into some players that have been traded.

And then we're going to talk about some players that we like slash don't like and why. So sit tight. We're coming right back. As we always like to do, we like to go to Dynasty Daddy.com. We like to type in the league settings, just start 10, 12 team, two quarterbacks, full point PPR with a 0.5 tight and premium. We've gone in. We've done the search. Now we are just going to go and look at.

at some trades that have gone down across leagues that fit this. There are some that stick out to me, Andy, let's talk about them. From today, Alvin Camara and a 26 first. So you be saying and if you mess up. You don't say four. Sorry. It messes me up. So this is a tough one because this kind of goes back to when I talked about how I

traded Mike Evans off the contender. This is like something I wanted to talk about too. I don't want to get off a huge tangent. but this is where it's really hard to navigate if you should sell the player at peak value when you're still winning. I think you should take the first for Kamara even if you're trying to win.

Interesting. It's going to hurt you, but you're just not getting that again. I would agree there. And you're not getting it in the off season. You have to have a good enough team. He is the RB2 overall. I just,

these types of trades are so tough to me because I struggle with this. I think we had a conversation off air about this. Like how do we navigate when we should trade players, even if they're like overvalue on a trade offer when we're still trying to win or give them to the team that we're competing with. I kind of think you just take the first there because I don't know if you can get a first again. But we keep wanting to kill Kamara every year and then he doesn't die. He's a two-year contract. If you're a super top

team where selling Kamara is going to incredibly hurt your chances to win, like if you're the number one team and your next running backs are like a team like me, my next running back is probably like Chuba if I'm really really lucky would be everyone there. I think you have to hold them. I in that team where I told you I traded Mike Evans. I started doing this in the offseason. I sold Kamara for Josh Downs and a couple other pieces like that trade's

ass now. Because I thought it was time to get off of him. Pause and I lost. So you have to kind of make a bet what you want to do with Kamara. I'm sorry with this long win and answer. But I think those trades are really interesting because it's just like a bet on what you want to make. I think value wise, the 26 first is the W there. You have to really weigh your options of what you want to do. I don't know.

I struggle with that. I'm not sending a first form ever. I'll say that. There was actually another situation that was kind of like this at the start of the year. So same thing with the league where I got Myers and Injoku

in it. Before the season, I shipped out Cooper Cup for a 27 first. And now I might end up well I looked like a moron in week one and then now he's coming back to probably 20 point per game Cooper Cup it was a person within my division so I'm fighting them for the playoffs and all again a little bit Mickey Mouse here but the same thing it would be like you know the fourth

place team giving the sixth place team a 20 point per game wide receiver and then ending up still having their first at the end. It's nice for me, but it can be tough. I don't mind moving a player when I'm contending if I know that that's the best value I'm going to get. I don't mind it at all. I've done it like I just went over, but I don't think I'm going to feel bad about not having Cooper Cup in my roster next year or the year after.

And I don't think you're going to feel bad about not having Kamara on your roster next year or the year after. You're going to feel really good about having that pick going forward. So I agree. You do just have to have the right team. So side tangent aside, I like this one for a contending team. Jalen Wright for Russell Wilson.

I like having Russell Wilson in the bag. I'll admit. Yeah, I like that too. I think Jalen Wright, I don't want to call him a zero, but he's almost a zero. Hopefully Moser's gone next year. And that's another narrative thing.

And maybe Wright is the clear RB2, but he isn't right now. So I like that. You know, trade a player that it scores no points for something you can actually use right now. I like that. Yeah, because chances are you'll be able to get a Jalen Wright type again next year or even get Jalen Wright back himself.

I mean, let's be honest. We have got, I find this trade to be interesting because I feel like the person trading away Henry in this case is still obviously competing. It's very rarely is Henry on a bad team right now. He's like one of three players that have a push rate in underdog. right now like that's it so if you have henry on your team and you're bad i don't know what to tell you uh that's that's probably that's probably on you but in this one we have derrick henry in a third for isaiah pacheco a first and a second and i love this deal we're going to get pacheco back

in a couple of weeks you're getting a first this trade was from today you get a first a second and you're getting pacheco back uh here in a couple of weeks to split carries with henry but even still that can still be a 12 to 14 point type play. I love this deal. This is exactly the type of deal that I'd want to make. And we just talked about this kind of setup. What say you? Yeah, I love it too.

I think he cooked. I think it's still hard to get a first for Henry, even with what he's doing. So hard. So you still can't. Like, it's a player like even when we talked about when Godwin was going crazy. People were still not giving a first for him.

People just aren't going to get first for Derek Henry because they're going to, We know we, that's another guy. We just kind of pick his demise every year and doesn't happen. But he's a third-year-old running back. He got a first, a second, and another player that in the off-season, is probably just going to straight be valued ahead of him. I think this is a great, I think it's a great trade.

Really, really good. Great trade. Great format of a trade. This is exactly the type of move. Just odd to me that you could still get this done. But, I mean, we love it. From today, Kareem Hunt for a third. We are big must-sell Kareem Hunt guy.

yes, he had 109 yards, and yes, he scored the touchdown, and that's awesome. Pacheco's coming back. This rule's not going to be the same. Maybe Patrick Mahomes actually opens it up a little bit more now that he's got a weapon. I don't know. There's a couple narratives here for that. But what we do know is that Kareem Hunt had zero value, and then he signs as a free agent on the Chiefs after their starter gets hurt, gets ridden into the ground. He's still a free agent next year.

So I want the third now for him. This is a perfect example of just get what you can while you can. You've already gotten your use after picking up hunt off waivers likely. Get rid of them. Priority sell. We'll take any third.

Yeah, I agree. Thanks for the service for five weeks. A cream hunt. He cooked for me. And you can go and I appreciate it. Yeah, we love and appreciate you. Right off into the sunset, brother. Let's see.

What else do we have here on the docket? I love this Cooper Rush for Deontay Johnson. This is somebody that picked up Cooper Rush off the waivers, sent it to whoever he could, and got a player that's deemed as a zero for the rest of the year, but probably picks up value next year, or at least hopefully picks up value next year, perfect way to spend your fab, if you're a rebuilding team. Or if you're a contender that for some reason your rosters are deep enough, you still had Cooper Rush on your team, even if you're a contender and you've gotten anything for him, great. Getting Deonti Johnson

for him, which I think there's a big disparity between how the fantasy community and how the NFL views Deontay Johnson, right? Like, fantasy community loves them, 25% target share player. Deontay Johnson's awesome. He just keeps getting sent for nothing everywhere he goes. So I think the NFL's kind of told you how they view him, but he should sign somewhere and make some money.

So, and get some targets. But this is turning an absolute zero into like a zero for now that has value later. I love this. Yeah, me too. This is obviously someone. that's incredibly desperate with quarterback probably had DAC. When you get to a point where you're trying to trade like some real players for a guy like Cooper Rush, man, just let it go. Just give up.

It's like the meme with the goofy backpack that's almost ripped. Just let it go, man. Just cut it, just let it go. Cooper Rush is not going to help you that much. Just play a wide receiver there running back or just call it. Just call the season at that point. I've done that where I'm just chasing quarterback. I'm doing a certain league now.

I bought Derrick Carr, Aaron Rogers over the last week. I'm chasing and chasing and chasing. at some point you just got to call quits and I think when you get to the Cooper Rush section that's what you call quits. I mean same thing with two thirds for Flacco that I see on here like that's I'm just keeping my thirds.

Me too. I'm just keeping my thirds. Flacco's not going to give you anything. We've seen the Flacco offense. We've seen it cook. That trade was from a day ago. So there we go. Talk about up and down values for DeAndre Hopkins. We've got Hopkins for Stefan Diggs,

Keaton Mitchell, who's playing tonight. Shout out to him after. coming back from that gross injury last year for an undrafted guy that's that's pretty big and a 27 second for dandre hopkins this is an overpay of hopkins in my opinion me too yeah at first before you said the 27 second i was going to say probably just send digs for him because digs is 30 and not playing to take your points now but he said the second yeah there's no way i like he image too is really good he was like budget a champs him when he played last season he's really good so hopefully he could come back and at least capture some of that yeah that's a super overpay to me this is a massive overpay

we have got a 26 first for Mike Evans overpay. Yeah, that's bad. That's terrible. Player that you say is a priority buy pretty much at this point is Ben Sinat, 26 third. Yeah, I like that. I'm happy giving any third for him. He was like a late second round rookie pick this year. I'm getting a little nervous, I will say.

I mean, that's what I've been saying. I'm nervous. I don't really care that. Erds is ahead of him because we expected that. We know that Cliff Kingsbury loves her. hurts specifically, but he loves Dessie tight ends. Tidens take a longer time. I think at this point, Ben Sinat's on more of a path of, like, Mike Kisicki. You look at Mike Kiske's early career, he wasn't really playing for like two years. He had like 25 catches a season, and then he finally got

his real role, and he kind of never really broke out. He had a couple, you know, decent little games for us, and he's kind of breaking out now at 29. But I think he's on a path like that. So he's probably going to end up being a player that's really, really annoying to hold on your team when he lose his taxi eligibility and he might like end up on a dynasty wire so i like giving up a third for him but just know you're going to have to wait and he's going to be a roster clogger at least for the rest of this year and next year i'm a little worried because even when he's played i mean he hasn't been able to earn targets he still plays like 30% of the snaps a lot of games which is not nothing something i haven't did a lot of digging on the data if he's blocking on a lot of those

snaps maybe he's not running routes but he hasn't flashed at all yet but he is a super athletic tight end with really really good draft capital so i like buying him for for a 26 third throwing out and see what happens, but there's a chance that you're waiting a long time and you end up just like burning the third. I remember in the draft process, I said he was probably more of an H-back, a swing player, right, an in-betweener, if you would,

with fullback and tight end. Kind of feels like that's a vibe with him now. Kingsbury just likes Erts, and Kingsbury is probably getting a head coaching job next year, given what he's done with the offense. I would imagine. Not again. I'm telling you, I'm pretty sure it's going to happen.

And someone's going to fall for it, right? Someone's going to slip on the banana and take Cliff Kingsbury for what he's done with that offense. I can just see. I imagine apparently Iber Flut is staying in Chicago, but that would have been my number one bit. But you got to hope Sanat breaks out a little bit at some point. Please show me anything. But I remember you made you made a big sting because we let Jacob get Sinat in the late second or the early third. You called the ass for it.

and everyone else in the league asked for it, and here we are taking any third we can form. So maybe Buck, we knew what we were doing. I don't know. Players mess out too. That's so good. Do you remember the Sean Tucker thing?

Never heard of her. It turns out any fourth gets you, Sean Tucker. So we can put that to bed now. I will say, I know we talk about the Buck. every fucking week. But I thought it was weird that Rashad White came out and looks good.

He's averaging like five yards of carry now over his last couple of games or like 4.8 or 4.6 I saw. Don't vet me on that. I 100% didn't look that up because I swore we weren't going to talk about the bucks this week. But then I just thought it was weird. He goes out. He scores the touchdown. He looks really good. First quarter, first quarter and a half.

Don't see him again until the two-minute drill in the fourth quarter. They rotate Bucky and Sean Tucker for the middle quarters. if that's how the offense is going to get used, kill me. He did come in with an injury, I think. True, but then they put them out there for the two minutes. It was just end overtime, which by the way, I had a league finishing a tie this week.

I had the win, and of course you're playing the Chiefs. You get a big gain in overtime. That's coming back for holding. Brutal, finished in a tie, a tie. Brutal. Here's one. Remember when Tank Biggsby was like the next, big thing and people were paying a first

form. Yeah. Biggsby and the Bucks backfield have their own segment on our show. Right. Well, he's back. He's back. We've got another tank update. Jatavian Sanders and a 25 third for Tank Bigsby. Oh man. I want Sanders.

I agree. But this is where we talk about, don't be reactionary. Let's try not to be reactionary as often as we can. And yeah, it turns out yikes pretty pretty bleak out there although i will say they uh etienne and bigsby both played and bigsby out snapped

etienne in routes but they were both hurt so we'll see etienne did also have a terrible he did something awful again he batted the ball up and ended up being a pick when they threw it to him and then we saw de jonas johnson in the game most of the game so there we go that backfield a mess we may still end up being wrong on the tank versus E-TN thing, but yeah, yikes, that offense is, it's in trouble. Welcome in Mac Jones now

because Trevor Lawrence is probably out for the year. It's the case. Really, really bad. I see one last one I want to talk about, before we take our last break, and we talk about players and our savant picks of the week, is Kate Otten, because I've seen him sold for pretty cheap. I've seen him in a league sold for a two,

a three, and a player whose name I can't even remember, so he's not that important. and then in this I see Isaiah likely a 25 second for Kate Otton. I'm just smashing Kate Otton. I am buying this production from Kate Otton. Big time. Big time. Me too.

I think it's time that we finally just yeat the Isaiah likely thing and we just stop giving this dude all this fake value. And he was a type 7 dynasty tight end after week one. And he's going to take over. He's going to do this. And he saw all this value. Like he is the epitome right now, at least like a fake value player. Like I'm so sick of him.

we can just eat him. If it happens in three years, it happens in three years, whatever. I'll take the L on it. But we could eat him and just send a second for, for Aten. I was calling Aten a PPR scam because I kind of think he is. But when you look at some of his production, man, it's like really hard to say it's flicky at this point. He has at least eight catches in three games, 100 yards, 81 yards, 77 yards, three

touchdowns in that span. It's insane. It's insane for a tight end. And when he, before all the wide receiver injuries, he had two games start the year. He was terrible. and then he had seven catches and six catches, four targets and six targets. Like he was involved before that. So I think he might just honestly just be like a decent little player.

And I think he's probably like the new Ferguson at this point. If you could sell Ferguson for him, sell Ferguson for him. I would say better. I would say better or better Ferguson in my opinion. Like it's real guys. Like it, I think this is real. He's showing he can take the usage. It's a little bit of PPR spam, but it's red zone work.

It's over the middle. It's outside. It's design plays. It's first replays. I think it's real. I think Kate Aten's real. I'm all, he's already,

he's already top 10, right? Like, because what else, what else are we dealing with? I agree with the likely thing. I think he is a really good player. I think likely could be a starting tight end for any, any team in the league.

He blocks. He runs routes. He's athletic. He makes insane catches. Almost makes other insane catches if he was just wearing white cleats. Um, in week one. Still hurt.

He's unreal. I am hurt about that. Yeah. As I wear my Ravens jersey getting ready for Thursday. I am still heard about it. But I think he is good, but you're right in terms of what he can actually provide in the near future. He is a fake value player. I'm 100% in the same category.

And just because I want to hurt your feelings a little bit, let's pour one out for Bucky's favorite, Devin Singletary, who according to this, all over the place, you can just acquire for a now fourth round pick. So wamp, wamp, bwam. I'm buying. Of course you're buying. You probably need to still start a. them and half of your dirtbag skank ass running back leagues you probably still need those six

points he's definitely in a few lineup of course of course we all have them we all have them let's be real who are we kidding all right those are the trades we've made we have done what's pissed us off and taking a look at the community and some trades that we like and don't like and why quick break we're going to talk about a couple of players and then our savant picks we're going to dive a little bit deeper sit tight well this this no we'll save him for less let's talk about nausea i was going to say this next player is going to push this to an hour and a half let's talk about nausea first keep trade cut running back 24 he is my running back 25 on the fancy points dot com dynasty ranking i have a feeling he's going to get moved up

the only reason that he's not moved up for me is the contract thing because the steelers do not pay guys, especially running backs, unless your name's Jerome Bettis. So we'll see what they do. I will say I'm not like afraid of Warren sticking around and like him being the reason that Naji doesn't get another contract. I will say it's the draft class that has me a little bit worried about that, right? Look at the Iowa running back. It's just breaking out this year.

Like he fits size, build, what they like. They've already spent a first round pick on a running back. They could do it again because it's just, you don't know what the Steelers. I don't know. It's like that meme. I'll fucking do it again. Like that, I feel that with the Steelers drafting a running back highly.

So that does, that concerns me, but I do think he's the type of back that we get a job elsewhere. Why? Well, let's look at the splits. You know, Justin Fields is the savior. He was the guy.

He was going to break the league. He had good fantasy games, even though the offense was bad. He might be the only quarterback that runs and scrambles that hurts. the efficiency of the running back on their roster. Because the thing is, oh, a running quarterback, look at Jonathan Taylor in the first game with Joe Flacco. It's like, oh, he's the worst game.

Go figure. But let's talk about it weeks. 1 through 5, you had a 3.24 yards per carry, 54 rushing yards per game. Only a 2.4% explosive run rate was not making people miss at 0.11 mistackles force per attempt. And a 2.15 yards after content.

back. Buck went and got these from the fantasy points data suite in the two games. Granted is only a two game sample size with Russ Wilson, the guy left for dead, the guy that I said had been outscoring Patrick Mahomes for a year and a half. Not totally dead here, guys. From week six to eight, 5.96 yard per carry,

107 rushing yards per game. All of a sudden he has explosive runs at 11% is tripling, more than tripling his mistackles force per attempt at point. 3.37 and is a 3.56 yards after contact. If he maintains this with a couple of 20 point games, if he maintains this, this is league winning potential at running back for what his cost is.

I am a known hater. I've been drinking the, I called him the poor man's James Connor, the day he got drafted. And it's kind of been how it's been for him. But he's a volume-based guy that's back to getting the volume, back to getting the red zone work.

I'm all about it. He's got the target share. We're going to talk about that. 33% of the rushes inside the five on the season. Field had a 63.6. So he is 50% of the rushes inside the five since Russ took over. That's huge. 10% target share.

The snap rate could be better, but they're keeping them efficient, so I don't mind. And 40% routes run per dropback. This looks like a smash. This is your guy. I refused to take them in the startup that we did. Kind of wish that we did do it,

but we had already traded up for multiple running backs. You've given me Josh Jacobs, when you could have had Josh Jacobs at home and Najee Harris. But that's how it is. Let's talk about it. I'm still not buying really, but I want you to convince me why I should. So,

Najee is one of my guys, it's like a joke in some chats because I gave up, like, so much for Najee after his rookie season. But he I do I do like him. He's a player I root for just because fantasy Twitter doesn't and they tried to do his demise with the Jalen Warren thing. But I want to push back a little. I like to buy if he's a second. If you can get him for a second, I'm buying for any second.

A second and like a likely. Like I'll pay that. But I will say. I don't think that gets it though. Because again. It probably doesn't now. It would early in the season when people just like didn't care about him when he was literally in the 13th round of the startup we did. But I will say over the last three weeks where he's had 100 plus rushing yard.

is he has played Vegas, the Jets, who was terrible. They're one of the worst tackling teams versus the running backs. I don't remember this out of hand. I just saw it. I'm sorry, but basically they have the most mistackles on running backs in the entire season. And then the Giants, absolute, you know, they're terrible on the ground. He has a brutal schedule after the buy. For the fantasy playoffs, he plays Philly, Baltimore, and Kansas City.

That's his fantasy playoff schedule. Coming back off the by is Washington, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Cleveland again. I mean, it's brutal. It's brutal. And since Jalen Warren has came back, he has got his rollback. He's, he has most of the routes. I think he runs over 50% of the routes. And he's at 50% of the snap. So he's back playing a role. He's not, he's not a threat to Naji for in between the 20s work or goal line work at all. But he is going to hurt the pass catching. Noges only caught five passes in three weeks since Warren's been back. And he's only had seven targets. and it's like 30 yards, five catches for 30 yards in three games. So I am worried a little bit that he needs to find the end zone. It's a lot easier for him to find the end zone now at Russ because they're not going to run speed option with Russ now. But I do think he just kind of goes back to what he was,

which is like a touchdown dependent running back. It's not going to catch the ball a lot. So if you want to buy, maybe buy in a couple weeks. That playoff schedule is very, it's brutal. That I can agree with. We'll see if the, we'll see if they can keep it up. We'll see if they can keep it up with him.

I think he's a volume play, a good volume play, but I think you're right. Buying now is the wrong time. You should have bought a little bit ago if you were a believer in the rest train. But now buying him at his peak. Now somebody might just be willing to get him off your roster. It is possible you could do a fake overpay.

But I agree. I like him. I think I'll be into him in the off season when he's a free agent and there's a little bit of ambiguity to him. But we'll see. see we will see what happens i think he's fine if you have him i'm playing him i'm not in a hurry to sell him either because i need him for the most part but i would also be very happy shipping him off on teams if they're talking about a player that isn't going to put you over the hump

if you're teetering if you're in fifth if you're in fourth if you're in sixth naji's not the guy going to put you over i'm he's one of those players that i'm moving to get value back on my roster for the long term. He's one of those guys for me like we talked about before doing that kind of deal. All right, let's talk about the elephant in the room. And I'm not talking about me. Let's talk about Jalen Wattle because I've kind of got a bone to pick with Jalen Wattle and how he's viewed by the masses and the public.

We were going to talk about Tillman. Tillman probably gets moved to next week. He's on a buy anyway. maybe we can mention him just briefly but we are going to talk about Jalen Waddle obviously we know he's had a terrible season terrible

15% target share 18% targets per route run an 18% air yard share 18.1% first read right that's way down from his 2023 22% target share 10.1a dot

30% target per route run, 24.5% first read. In 2022, he had a 20% target share, a 23% targets per row, run, a 12.1A dot, and a 24.5 first read. His usage has plummeted this year. Now, yes, Tua was gone. We've got full games with Tua and with Waddle, and the offense is just clearly running in a different way, and it's working. The offense right now is even nerfing Tyreek Hill a little bit in favor of Johnny Smith,

Devon A. Chan and a couple of other options. So it's kind of hard to justify his preseason prices. And I myself have been very anti-Waddle in the second round. I'm anti-Waddle when he was in the third round. I was anti-Waddle when he was in the early. fourth round because I again call him a nesting doll wide receiver something that I have been

given crap about four years but let's just look at what he is and it's not much different than a Devontas Smith than a D.K. Metcalf then the other play, T. Higgins, a bunch of

other players in that range which is why he got the nesting doll designation, which I totally understand people did not like it and they do not like it but that is fine now where as to where i have him uh jalen wattle i believe this line is actually moved if i'm not mistaken so i will have a look uh he's wide receiver 25 on keep trade cut i have him at 24 so i am like a little bit ahead of what the market is.

So there's that. But let's look at what he is. And really look at what he is because we understand that in 2021 he had 15.5 points per game. In 2022, he had 15.3 points per game. In 2023, he had 14.2 points per game. And that was a really weird year.

Also a year where Tua led the league in passing. And then of course, this year he's at an 8.2 points per game. game. He's only crossed, I think, nine points only in week one. This year, this last week, he had negative yards thanks to a really weird play. They ran a bad situation. And then he scored a touchdown. So it saved him. Really bad. Really bad. But let's have a look at it. In 2021 buck, he had two top five finishes. He had one other top 12 finish. He had four other top 24 finishes. So we total that up. He had seven finishes inside the top 24. He had seven other games or five

other games where he finished outside of the top 24, right? So seven, no, I'm sorry, I screwed that up. He had seven games inside the top 24 or better, seven games outside of the top 24. So not great in 2021. In 2022, he had three games inside the top five. two games as a wide receiver, one in the top 12 outside of that, so from 6 to 12, and then he had two other games inside the top 24. So again, five, we have seven games as a top 24 wide receiver or better. He also had 11 games outside of the top 24. So once again, his big breakout year, he was more likely to finish outside of being a

wide receiver 2 than he was to even be a wide receiver 2. and then it's important to note that he had 267.4 fantasy points in 2022. 96 of those points came from three games. More than 30% of his points came from two games. One of those was the Baltimore game. So thanks for that, Jalen. Appreciate it. Moving on in 2023, he had one game.

So last year inside the top five, he had one other game inside the top 12. He had four other instances where he was a top 24 wide receiver. So six. And then he had nine other games where he was just outside of the top 24 altogether. He is the definition of a boom or bust wide receiver. Yes, he can absolutely go nuts in a week, but he can absolutely win you a week.

And to me, that's just not worthy of being in the third round. Not when we have three or four years of this. And it's not just once. It's not just twice. This is just what he is. This is what he has been. Can that change? Can it get better?

Absolutely. Do I think it will? I don't know. I don't see it. His price hasn't even dropped that much. You still have to pay a first for him. And I don't know if I'm willing to do that. I don't think I'm willing to do that.

I've definitely, we talked, Buck, you and I talked about, you know, are we buying or are we selling and we want them off of our rosters and how can we get it done and i don't know i think i'm more on the i want him off than i want him on my rosters we can look at what he's going for right now and a lot of it is when we look at something like dynasty daddy it's chris godwin and a two so that's a pretty cheap waddle i would probably take waddle in that case but we've got jalen waddle Giovante in a first for like Nico Collins and Cooper Cup like that's that's still crazy expensive we got jk Dobbins and waddle for garrett wilson give me garrett wilson every single time jaden reed and jalen wattle and a two give me jaden reed jayden read jaylon wattle for michael pitman a third and a fourth is pretty

cheap wattle i would take that kate on for wattle i would take otton in a tight end premium right now josh down's for wattle and a third that's that's pretty cheap wattle we've got a second for that's fairly cheap I would take that but a 25 first right underneath that it just it it varies so much a first and a fourth for wattle Kincaid and wattle for Marvin Harrison Jr. is actually crazy for me that's actually insane and then from three days ago we got wattle in a first for rice in a second that one's a little tougher for me but like waddle for a first and a second it's everywhere buck it's all over the map so we've talked about his data we went through what

he's done week in and week out from 2021 to this year and where he's at we've gone through everything got all the data we know what he's going for let's talk about waddle from your perspective with what we know and where we have them you mentioned that you want them off your Why? So I have a market update on Jalen Waddle as I sent an offer that involved water, a Waddle. And my response I got was Waddle sucks. That was in my DM just about five minutes ago. So, so great, great analysis by that guy. I think the market has soured on him as that would say. It's going well then. So, yeah, he's kind of unsellable at this point for anything you want that's like real for any

the I think you said you got DK for him that was actually an offer I tried to send I sent DK I sent him for DK it was like him a third and some other player and it I got well waddle sucks in return so I think realistically as like we want to be we want to be the best at like winning that's our goal here we want to take a lot of the motion aside I think you should be buying him at least inquiring to try to buy him I do want him off my teams for any of the players in his tier. Like I want T. Higgins. I want D.K. I want DeMonte Smith. I want to add seconds to get those players and get him off the team. But I also don't want to sell low where I'm selling like for Xavier Worthy. And I think that's what you have to do at this point. I would really like a Cedict Tillman plus deal. Don't know if you can get that. Especially not a first. Not getting a first plus Tillman. Well, you know that one personally. Yep. So that got declined. So you'd have to get like a second, like a Cedric Tleman in a second. Do you feel good about that? Probably not. So I think you have to hold. I think you have to hold if you want to be a realistic dynasty manager and you don't want to act out of emotion, you should hold him and not just sell to sell because you're pissed them and you're just over it. I mean, I've done that for what was there with Anthony Richardson kind of turned out to be right.

He's a quarterback though. He got bench. He lost his job. He was a quarterback ad. Really risky chances to not play again. Wattle doesn't have that. He's locked into a deal. He'll be on the team.

But his metrics are really bad. I mean, they're not just really bad. They're terrible. And he has a 15% target share. That's like he's putting up honestly worse. Like he's putting up Darius Slayton numbers. Like you're better off starting Darius Slayton. I mean,

so I think you buy. I think you have to pay it first. Not sure I want to pay it first unless I know it's going to be from the 110 to the 112 and 25. And that's about it. I think if you can sell for T. Higgins, I would add a second plus something else to get to there. So I say I'll have to say I want him off my team, but I want him off my team respectfully without killing myself doing that.

Yeah. And we saw that. We saw that with a lot of the trade that I had mentioned, right? The Josh Downs and Jalen Waddle in a third. Like I would just take Jalen Waddle there, right? But like Jaden Reed or Jalen Waddle in a second, like I would just take Reed. And I know I call them a fraud continuously,

but I would just want them there. So there are situations we can't move them. And like I said, the database shows and why we go through this exercise is to kind of make sure we're not just being biased about our takes. We want to see what that market is. I don't think the price is universally dropped enough where he is just like a screaming buy yet. I think that time will come up.

This continues. Right. There is a chance this blows up in your face and he goes on like a 20 point per game run somehow. But I think again, when we broke down how many games inside the top five he's been in, how many games outside of the top 24. When I went through that, the exercise was to show that he's really not. at all that consistent type player. And to me, I want a little bit of consistency in my elite value assets.

He's never hit that for me. I don't think an elite, a receiver you're paying a first plus to go and get or drafting in the second and third round like he has been. And people are holding on to that. I saw on Twitter today, someone still had him as the wide receiver six. And I audibly went like, I'm never taking advice from that person. Because they clearly can't see what the progression for him is. His career has been.

Right. So that's somebody that I'm just avoiding. I'm not going to say who it was, but I'm just like, I've taken a mental note now. I'm never, I can't trust that individual's opinion. But you've got a player that has more, a better chance to finish outside of the top 24, even in his like breakout years. Great third wide receiver on your roster. Great four.

Amazing fourth wide receiver on your roster. But like, you could just get Mike Evans for a second and you're, you're good. You get the same opportunity, same kind of. upside in the short term. So the issue, the issue right now is deployment. We've seen the way the past catchers in general over the last two years, they've had a super consolidated target tree where they use the two receivers and that's it. Now he's been jumped by Achan. They're using the tight ends more. And he's just not, he's not good enough to, he's not good enough to earn to completely dominate targets from Janu and Achan at this point. He just isn't, I mean, he's a 15% target share player.

They're not throwing it to any other receivers, just those two. But we're seeing the ancillary weapons be used way more than generally. He's never been an ultra target earner. He does have a season over 20%. But he's a guy that we, the Chris Collinsworth, that we like to run the deep routes. Obviously, he's not going to earn a 40% target share with the routes he runs. So they did that the first year where he was just like underneath. He caught 100 passes and it was terrible.

So they didn't like him in that role. They like him in the field, such a role. But, yeah, I think it's probably just not going to change for him, because I don't see the deployment changing for him. And I think even Tennisys kind of kind of changed a little, at least so far from what we've seen them. They've changed. Yeah.

They could be waiting to ramp it back up again. I mean, that's totally a possible thing they could be doing. Yeah, because Hill's been bad too. Like Tyree Hill has not been Tyrake either. Right. And this is where I want to get away kind of from narrative.

Well, he could be the guy if the Hill is gone. I don't know if that's the case because he's not Tyreek. He's 70% of Tyreek, in my opinion. 60. 60? Okay. I don't do 60, but like Tyreek is one of the best in our generation, right? So to say he would just step in and be able to do, I think he just ends up going back to like the 15 to 14 point per game type player.

I mean, he is what he is in my opinion. And now he's getting older. Granted, he's not old. He's 25, 26. He's getting close to the pivot age for wide receivers in a year or two after that. so is Hill going to be gone in a year, two years. I know Lucas just had him as a buy on the Dynasty Point show that we do every week as well. I call it the flagship, the main show.

I don't know how to treat the two shows at this point, but he has a buy if it's cheap, like we mentioned. And there seems to be some opportunity, but I think the base community still hasn't valued insanely high. And I'm looking to pivot at that case. I can, I sent an offer. I don't know if it's going to get accepted. I sent Jalen Waddle and my 25 first on a team where I'm in first place, and I've had Waddle in my lineup, so the team is good. I'm high, I'm top two and points four.

I don't just have a good win-loss record. I am high in the points four. I have a high-value roster. I sent Waddle in my 25-first for DeVontas Smith in a second. So we'll see if that gets accepted. I might have to add on to that a little bit, which makes me a little nervous, but, I mean, I'm still trying to pivot and even add.

to get it done on a contending roster. So I'm kind of ahead of the market on being down on him. It's hard. It's bleak. It's really bleak. I just also found it was interesting. How many times he's got six top five finishes

since 2021, like since he started. He's got four other games where he finished inside of the top 12. A bunch of wide receiver two seasons, right? One, five, seven. He's got nine other top 24,

finishes aside from the games inside the top 10 the top 12 and top 5 but just so many games outside of being a top a wide receiver 2 so many games of being a wide receiver 3 or worse 17

that's 28 35 games 35 of his games as a wide receiver 3 or worse isn't just not in in 3 and a half years yeah I'll say the averaging 10 a year yeah that's crazy the last thing I'll say about

him is the whole Tyrake Hill will leave thing is that I think that's also just a flaw like it's not always the best thing to be the widest zero one in your team mm-hmm it's not always the best thing look at Calvin Ridley I mean he went to be the wider zero one on Tennessee like who cares they suck and a guy like T. Higgins we've seen like that's the whole thing oh T Higgins he's going to leave and he's going to be the wider one I like where he's at I don't want him to move yeah I like where he gets he gets alpha he gets alpha metrics he he gets alpha target share and things like that while facing the number two corner. I don't want him to go be the number one on the Patriots. Yeah. So like the whole thing with Waddle is like he probably gets a lot of help with Tyree Kill on the team. And whole Tyree Kill is 30,

all time grades, they age a lot differently, a lot differently than they typically age a lot differently than, you know, middle-ling players. Tyree Kill is going to end up being a top 10 receiver of all time. This isn't just a normal player we're talking about. He's going to age a little differently. So I don't expect that. And that's a narrative we need to just like, if you're buying Waddle based on that, I think you lost the plot. I would agree with that. that. I would agree with that 100%. All right. Let's talk. I want to talk about Tillman for a minute. I said we weren't going to do it

when you stepped away for a minute. We're going to talk about him briefly because I think we're going to focus on him next week. He's on his by week. Nothing he does this week is going to change his value except for fantasy players just being able to kind of sit on having him longer.

Which is both good and bad because dynasty managers, we're weird. We get time to think about something. We do crazy shit. But I do want to mention that if you're going to buy, be ready to buy now, because he's already moved up. He's already inside the top 40, I believe, the last time I checked on the crowdsourcing sites like keep trade cut. Uh, if we were to go and have a look, he is already, why does he he were, he's wide receiver, he's wide receiver 47. So he's already inside the top. He's already in the

40s. And it's just in a couple games. He was in the 90s, like you had mentioned to me. He was in the 90s. He's actually moved up since we hit record. He's now wide receiver 46. He's already moved up. He should be ahead of guys like Dobbs. He should be ahead of guys like Shakir. But we've got guys like Pierceall, Legate getting opportunities. Godwin is hurt. He should be ahead of him. We'll see what Jameson Williams does. You know, if he has a big game, he's going to move up. But he's already in this tier of players where you almost have to pay a first for him. just people are paying a first for Cooper Cup because he's producing we've got people paying a first for Mike Evans Josh Downs is an expensive player Dibo's an expensive player

Darnel Mooney is not expensive but man that boy is producing love Darnal Mooney just wanted to shout him out but he's already past the Amari Cooper Deontay Johnson Rashid Jihad the Quentin Johnston he's so close he's teetering very close on being almost where Jordan and Addison is And one more game of just relevancy, not even his 20 point for game pace, he's going to push past them. And I don't know if I'm down with that yet.

But if you want to be buying, you want to buy now, you're already too late. If you want them cheap, so be ready to pay for him. Not always the case. There's always a manager willing to move off of them, right?

There's always somebody willing to capitalize early. People did it with Puka. I think it'll be harder to get a guy like him who is kind of breaking out because of Nico, because of Puka. because we've seen it in recent years, receivers being free and gaining insane value quickly, you are all about it.

You're just buying, you're in, you believe what you're seeing. Before I turn it over to you, I just want to point out that I'm not disbelieving it, and I'm not saying that he can't be good because we have seen enough breakouts from 24, 25-year-old wide receivers.

He had like an okay profile to me. I wasn't like big on him as a prospect. I thought he went kind of a shitty situation. Situation has changed, but he has the best coordinator he could possibly have in one of the most past heavy coordinators in the league, one of the best deep ball play callers in the league, an already very good system in Stefanski's base system.

And then you get a quarterback who is a wide receiver maker, if you would, someone that we've been begging to get in the game, just throwing heat balls down the field. He still had, even though he had a bad game. He had the most catch-webatch, air yards thrown, James Winston did, in their last game. So even though the picks came because, you know, that team could catch an interception,

unlike the Baltimore fucking Ravens, who couldn't catch a ball thrown directly into their chest as defenders. That's a whole other, I'm not over that one yet. That one's still a little deep in the wound, but neither here nor there. But you are right in terms of like, you can't totally ignore what he's doing in 22.2 fantasy points regained 90% of the routes, 24% of the targets, 35% of the air yards. I will just say though,

that's without since Mark Cooper's been gone. I will say though, like everyone in that offense is getting targets. He's just getting the deep targets, which do matter. But the offense overall is just throwing the ball. Nick Chubb does look like he's coming off of an ACL. Like he looks like he's coming off of his knee getting blown up. So this is a team that has to throw, has to scrow, has to score points, perfect scenario.

Could I see this being a scenario where he kind of blows up beyond expectations and then levels off a little bit next year? Yes. But like you said, if you're going to buy in, you've got to buy in now. So let's talk about him a little bit briefly before we really dive into what we think his value is. I also want a prediction from you of where you think his value will be when we record this podcast next week. You hit it really well with JSN on this when we talked before. Okay. Well, first I want to say, I just want to be really aggressive with this player.

I want to be really aggressive with Sedge Tome. He's not a rookie. He's second year a player, but he didn't really play a lot last year. He did get a couple games at the end of the season where he was playing like real percentage of the routes. But he's a former top 80 pick. They have real draft capital investing in him. They don't have much draft capital after this year. and he's flashing just he's not just like being okay like i see like i haven't really seen it but

i'm sure it's out there as people probably comparing him to travis fulgum i don't know if remember that thing yeah it's a different scenario yeah this is like a player but real draft capital that was a real prospect that's winning on big boy routes on the outside and he's putting up 22 202 fantasy points per game 23% of the targets for route run two two two yards for outrun which at 1.9, we want to be a little better than that. And then he's a 27% first race. So he's taken over the alpha role in the offense. We could say, well, he hasn't been on the field.

Like, why are they keeping? If he's this good, why weren't they playing him? Right. Like, why is he, why was he riding the bench if he's this nice? Well, they had a sunk cost fallacy at his position. And that was Amari Cooper, who was producing as one of the worst riders he was in the entire league, but continuing to be trotted out there because of money. Trader Mario Cooper, Cooleman's playing that same role that, I will say that role for

Mari Cooper was, it was like number one and expected fantasy points. Mara Cooper at one point. Yeah, it's a nice role. So it is really good, but he is taking that role and actually making plays with it. He's doing what Cooper did last year with it. Yeah, but he's, he's honestly earning like more targets though. He has over the, over three weeks, he has 32 targets. He's tied for first in the league. I'm assuming that's with Garrett Wilson, my king. He is like when we see young players put up things like this, I just want to be

aggressive. I want to try to see what I can get him for and where it's like, I I think he's a possible player where it's like an overpay today is an underpay tomorrow. I know like people hate that. It's just true. So I want to send the tank Dells. I want to send the Jamison Williams. I want to add seconds to Deonti Johnson. I just want to take a shot on this player because I think at the very least he's played

his way into a long-term fringe wide receiver type one type role for the Browns. He's going to be on their team. He's under contract. That he's at least at the very least he played himself into a role for them. And I want to see, man. I want to see. he's not going to keep this up right he's not going to average 22 points he's not he's not going to be a jesson jervisson but if he continues over the second half of the season he's really just you know finishes as

like the wide receiver eight on you're not getting him at all for like at all he's in the six round of startups i want to take a shot right now i don't think i don't think you're getting him now that's my problem see like we we argued about that wasn't really an argument we talked about that and i do kind of as we were throwing hands yeah it was it was rough but i i i was so i was a high guy. I just did my rankings. I was a high guy until when I was at wide receiver 36 on him. And I honestly think he should be a little higher. I want to sell the cups.

I want to sell the cups and Evans. You can't sell Evans probably now because he's hurt. But I want to sell the type of players that are definitely done gaining value for a potential. I'm taking a shot. Like this is like kind of calling a shot on a player that can gain immense value. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'm willing to be wrong.

But I want to be wrong with certain assets. I want to be wrong with like a tank Dell who I think is kind of done. Like I don't know. what tank tell is going to be and if i lose on if i lose on cedric tilman if he becomes zero i give up tank tell and it's not like tinktel's wide receiver 12 right if that makes sense so i want to take this bet but i want to take a calculated bet and i will say the next time we record i think cedric tillman is wider cedar cedar jr 30 30 30 is probably high because he didn't play yeah so i'll say i'll say he's wide receiver 38 write that down you said 30 i said 38 add that to the show sheet we'll have a look at it next

week. I think you're mostly okay. I just, here's my thing, right? He's got three touchdowns in the three games. So you know touchdowns aren't sticky. Would you still be having good games without those touchdowns? Absolutely. The game against the Chargers, it would have been 13.5. And yeah, we don't want to just remove all the touchdowns because touchdowns are

going to happen. But this was a warning sign with Addison. This is a warning sign with other players whose value gets spiked for touchdown. Sam Leporta was another guy who got spiked for touchdowns. I get it. I fully understand. we can't remove like oh

remove this long run I get it we can't do that I fully get it his matchups have been nice too that's important Cincinnati Baltimore Chargers the Chargers one yeah that's a little

he had his you know the tougher game with that 11 targets only six catches but the Bengals and Ravens is hilarious how how bad those past defenses are you expect him to smash in those spots I get it

I totally get it I understand and I do kind of want to be in as well I just think perceptively when we get into leagues that these players have Tillman already and his scoring points, there's almost no reason to move them. So I don't think you send the Tankdale in a 2. I can tell you that Jacob already smacked down

my attempt to send Tankdell. He's already smacked down my attempt to send. I've already gotten denied. James and Williams in a 2 got denied. I got denied Mike Evans in a 2. They said no. I got sent away for a lot of those. I have not tried to Cooper Cup

because I don't really roster any of him. I imagine that gets shot down at this point because people have no reason to let go because he is at his peak and gaining value. Because again, I blame Nico Collins. I blame Puka because now people don't want to let go of the young boom out of nowhere. And for the most part,

the average fantasy player can see the scenario too. James Winston, he throws the ball. We love him. We love and we love him. So I think you already, you're not in fake overpay territory. You're just in overpay territory to take your shot. That's where I have a disagreement on where you're saying you can buy from

and where you're saying he actually is. I think in leagues where points are actually being scored, I think he's already at wide receiver 3. I think he's already, I think there are people that would turn down Waddle for him right now, almost straight up because they're seeing the points in their lineup and they can't get rid of it. Yes, I don't disagree with a lot of that.

I will say, I guess we'll flip it. a little bit. We could double blame Puka and Nico because they're also hurt. So it's harder to trade a player that's scoring because all the good ones are hurt. Yeah. We can double them up. That's the other reason. But so I guess I'll flip it. If we don't think we can buy him, which I still think, you said, you told him as a player that was a nobody. You got off waivers. We kind of shifted away from this in the fantasy community, but like we were able to buy Puka for a second after one good game because everyone was like, oh, oh, profit, profit, profit, sell them, go sell them second. Oh, do it. And it's like, that kind of,

did kind of, I will say that did kind of switch. But I'll flip it in another way and say, if we don't think we can buy him for, you know, the tank tells and things like that, at least I think we shouldn't be selling him for like, like, don't just go sell him for a second. Don't just be so quick to say, I'm turning a profit. Oh, I got this guy in the, I got this guy for free for $60 a fab. They sent me tank tell for him. Like, I don't think he's a player that we should be eating off our rosters like that for sure. So I, like I said, I would like to buy we'll talk about him more in length like i'm just i'm just really interested because just kind of how he's won and what he what he's done like i just want to take a shot on that and like i said it could

be a fluke and i could be wrong but i want to calculate the players i'm wrong with when i buy him i want to make a good point to say too like i don't think you're wrong what where i where again where i think the disagreement is is what i think the market's value of him is already i think it's too late now i think it's two weeks ago you needed to buy in i agree so that's where my disagree is it's not that I think he's a bad player I don't think he's getting any value I know that was like the initial basis of our conversation you thought I was turning up I wasn't turning up I think it's a good conversation a bad day I was having a bad day all right I apologize we're good but I just think it's the base of where he is already I think he's already surpassed what this keep trade cut value is

in real leagues not saying it isn't impossible well in my league I got them that's great then that whole entire segment isn't for you you're the goat didn't happen in your leagues because your leagues are just so far superior. I understand. I get it. You're awesome. But that's it. We are going to talk to him more. That was even more that I wanted to talk about him because now this podias is going to be an hour in 20. I'm sorry. I can't out myself on Cedric Tillman. I got to talk about him. And we promise we wouldn't. But we're we're going to not take a break, but I do want to segue now into our savant play of the week. And last week, as I mentioned, I smashed it. He wanted to get DeAndre Hopkins before he played, because that

was the cheapest you are going to get him is the bias of production is already seeping into his role i just tried to buy him for a i was going to send a second i was going to hopkins and a third that was a very doable trade before he played that game and the conversation is one of our subs shout out to him what i'm just using this as an example but immediately got back he said, well, he just got nine targets and two touchdowns with the chiefs, like his price changed. And my reply was, no, it didn't, not to me. Because that's what was assumed the moment he got traded. And you could think and say, well, week one, it was like four days is one of the most complicated

roles of any wide receiver. They have so many option routes and just learning in NFL offense. it's fucking hard. It was hard learning my high school offense, right? Let alone my post-secondary education offense when I played. It was hard. Now you're going into an NFL offense, one of the most complex that exists. Yeah, people are going to struggle with that.

All right. Yeah, exactly. I'm old like that. Like, just think reasonably. If you think that you're someone that can be like, oh, it can't be hard to learn an offense. There are YouTube channels. There are examples of people calling in NFL. Watch the Sean McVeigh interviews where he says play calls.

Go learn 400 of them, especially when you get option routes. It's tough, man. So yes, you shouldn't have expected a big game from Hop in week one, but before week two, yeah, you should have assumed that production was going to come

and that nine targets and whatever, six catches for 90 and two scores, was possible, that's what they told you the role was. So now it costs a little bit more to go and acquire. I just wanted to reference that because when a player is in that situation, we should already assume that that production is baked in, and we shouldn't use production confirmation to change what their value is. Their core value is still the same to me.

Hopefully that makes sense. Just a little added tidbit from my savant plan. that absolutely smashed for you last week. My savant play this week, maybe not, but maybe so. Joanne Jennings, to me, is worth acquiring now. Debo on the expiring contract. This is a guy, and also, IUC, Hurt, won't be, excuse me, won't be back all year. Pierceau, very raw type player.

Guy that's already won a week at a 45 point week. other than that, he's kind of hovered around the 10 point per game range after that breakout, even when everyone else was healthy and then he got hurt himself. Talk about an opportunity. This is a guy that could probably end up running 65, 70% of the routes when healthy. Five to seven targets in an offense. Big guy also can separate. Worth buying.

Worth buying. Chances are he's not on the waivers anymore, but he's hurt. Go send a third. Go send a third and a fake player. This is a go send a third and Isaiah likely. right get Isaiah likely off her rosters at this point but he's my savant play

I think Joanne Jennings could be a guy that really helps you in your flex spots and has some value next year they did resign him to a new contract as well so he's he's there and they like him so go by before they play this week if you're listening to this on

on Friday morning or Sunday morning if you're on the Fentanyi Moynes Now Network go do that because I don't think you're going to want to watch him score a potential 15 points on someone else's team that's my savant play the week joan jennings my savant play is it might be a little early a little early i wanted to do it now maybe we could talk about in a couple weeks he won't be helping this year outside of like something you know drastic happening happening that we wouldn't like but it's michael pennix i think now is the time to buy him now that

christian kirk now that kirk cousins is playing well like i think we had got rid of the stink of the Kirk Cousness thing. Like after week one, everyone was like, oh, it's Michael Panic's time. Kirk is cooked, it's done, it's over.

Well, that was wrong. Kirk cousins has been great there. We talked about that too. Yeah, we did. I remember you and I were really frustrated after the one, I think it was week two. I was on my midnight walk,

but I've been taking to try to not look like I have kids with this dad bod that I got. And we sat there and I called you and we just talked about it. I just think it's the flow of the offense, rookie first year play caller, Cousins not being in rhythm. And now, yeah,

their offense is running. You know, Kirk Cousin statistically is on, a better pace this year than his, then last year with the Vikings. Yeah, he doesn't have Jefferson.

He had two insane games. Yeah, and he's doing it, he's doing it without, uh, with fewer attempts, fewer completions and without Justin Jefferson.

Like he's still the same. He's literally, the same Kirk Cousins that he was in Minnesota with Atlanta now. So I just want to point it. We did talk about that. That gives me signal

to buy penics. But carry on. I just wanted to add that in. They got Justin Jefferson, but we got Drake London. Shout out to Anthony Edwards. I think we should, I think we should just be buying now.

Because now he's kind of on people's roster and he's kind of like out of side out of mind. We got rid of the thing where we think Kirk Cousins is being bench. not they're going to make the playoffs i would like to buy him for like i don't even know if it's possible but quarterbacks that are old and scoring points staffer rogers those type of guys when you get to like you have to get like a jericho off like there's no shot you have to get a first back you have to be in a you have to be in a unique situation i think i want to send the old quarterbacks and i also want to

send a player you might disagree with this i think you can get him straight up for tyrone tracy and i would sell tracy for i would do that yeah like i would sell tracy and i think that's like super possible right now. That's probably your best bet. You might even be able to get like a third back or something. Someone needs running backs or not. They don't obviously, they're not using penics. He's not playing.

I think Tyrone Chasey is the trade trip for Pennix right now. I think that's where I'd be at. Yeah, I would agree with that. I think he's a priority buy. He's not just a buy. I'm sending a second to plus. Me too.

Go and get him. Cortland's son. Yeah, Cortland Sutton plus a two. I would do that. Like, I'm overpaying to go get pennix rate. I'm not paying a first.

I'm not paying like a whatever. But like, it's going to be hard and maybe it's impossible and maybe we're doing that whole Twitter thing that we both hate. But like Daniel Jones, guess what? You're up. Car, you're up. Rogers, you're up. Any one of those guys that aren't like a top 15 quarter. Stafford, you're up.

I'm willing to trade these guys away to go and get Penix now. And maybe he doesn't even help you next year. Maybe they let Kirk play two years. Who knows? But I'm willing to bet that when panic steps in, look, we've seen Jacob had this take on Dynasty points. I think two weeks ago. Like Polk, ass, a duncee kind of struggling.

Who's the third guy? Macmillan. Macmillan. Not lighting it up. Maybe it was Penix elevating the receivers. The joke was like the receivers, and I got to tell you, the O.C. in Seattle,

outside of grubs, outside of the pass rate, I'm not overly impressed with his total offense. Maybe it was Penix. Like he was kind of a joke, but I'm willing to at least admit that, yeah, the joke was cute and everything, but he definitely shouldn't have slipped far in rookie drafts where he was.

Like, he was going in like 205, 26. I was trading up to get him because I don't think any first round quarterback, especially a quarterback taken that high should go past like two, three, two, four. Like, I unfortunately took a lot of picket at like 203, which really sucks because he was terrible. But more often than not, if you buy those first. round quarter look at bow nix he was a smash pick at 201 202 smash pick at 112 never mind um with what he's given you in his value so he's he never should a yes the meme was fun but we shouldn't let that interfere with dynasty and how it's value take that out of it i think you're right

he's a smash pick i think it's a great play i have a fun one for you though okay anthony ritchison or michael panics i'm not doing that straight up like i think i think we're playing the game now I saw a poll on Twitter with over a couple thousand votes. 57% panics. Yeah, to me that's jumping the shark. Me too. I think you're taking too much risk there. I think you'd have to get a significant plus on that.

I think you're on the right path. I think you're on the right path. But look, they say they're playing Flacco the rest of the season. We'll see you in two more games. We'll see in two more games. That was pathetic. The best chance to win zero offensive points,

completely cratered your best offensive player. and Jonathan Taylor. Like, I want, I just, I don't know, I don't want to get on a whole side, talk about that. We already went too long, but these users are paid millions of dollars. They don't look at things like how much it would affect their best player and Jonathan Taylor. Like he's so much, like, Richardson does so much more things outside of just, oh, he doesn't complete some passes. He's amazing at getting out of sacks. We know that.

Like, he's really good at that, evading sacks, evading pressure. The offensive line seems, besides Ryan Kelly, screw him. Everyone out, they seem to really be behind him and like him. and he elevates Jonathan Taylor, like, by a lot. I don't, I don't get that. Hopefully Flacco is out of here. I don't want to see him make another start ever again, to be completely honest with you. But I think, yeah, we should definitely be buying Pennix.

The Richardson thing, you need to get a plus for that. I still think Richardson has a future, for at least somewhere. Yeah, so I think that one's jumping the shark, but I think we're on the path. I think we're on the path. But you definitely want to be going and buying. Go on by. Ignore the meme. Ignore these ass.

Ignore that he's left-handed. whatever else. 35 years old. Yeah, ignore all of that mess. He's just a buy, priority by, savant picks. I'm going to smash again this week. We went long,

but we had a short dynasty points episode, so I feel like it kind of makes up for it. You guys kind of got honest for not having a longer dynasty points episode with the election and everything. So that's it. That's the show. A lot of stuff talked about today. And probably going to bite us in the ass.

That's how this works. But I always like to say, keep locked in on the market. It's always changing. from the time we hit record the time we finish this podcast here recording Thursday afternoon before the Thursday night game wide receivers values changed mid show so it's good to get your update that's the dynasty points market report Randy Buckler I'm Thomas Tipwell remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose in your best days they're always spent tilting

let's go Ravens we'll see you guys next week