Fantasy Football Daily - Debunking 2023 NFL Draft Class Myths | On the Clock! NFL Draft Podcast

Episode Date: April 12, 2023

Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) has heard it all about the incoming 2023 class of rookies. A lot of what he has heard isn't true. He tears down some of the biggest misconceptions about this class in a solo rant! BRETT WHITEFIELD'S 2023 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT GUIDE IS FREE TO READ WITH A NO-CHARGE LOGIN AT FANTASY POINTS. Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome into another episode of On the Clock. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield. Ladies and gentlemen, we have, you know, we've got a brief announcement here. we unfortunately we've had some cancellations for guests on the pods this week a couple people had to call out sick and they are rescheduling so that's good so those big time guests we had

planned for yesterday today um not going to be on this week no big deal you'll just get a lot more of me solo dolo which is fine because i spent a lot of time listening to other people's opinions you know it doesn't hurt to once in a while share my own that said uh please bear with me while I get the guest calendar kind of sorted out here. All will be good, though. I know we will have a guest tomorrow for sure. I know Mr. John Hansen will be joining us, The Guru himself, for Friday's episode.

So we're going to finish the week strong. But anyways, while I have you here, I thought we would spend some time, kind of not necessarily debunking some of the biggest draft myths, but kind of going through them and me sharing my thought. people are really hot takey. I mean, this happens every year, right? People get their, get on this track with certain players and they can't get off of it.

And I see a lot of things that just don't seem true. So I figure we'd take a few minutes and kind of just go through some of these and talk it out real quick. Let's start with Devin Witherspoon versus Christian Gonzalez. And I spent a lot of time talking about this on the Take Talk podcast last week. I know that we do, there's obviously some overlap and listener base there, but there's obviously some listeners who just listen to this podcast, so I figured I could get into it here. One of the things I constantly see is that, you know, Devin Witherspoon is a press man only corner because that's what you did in college. And Christian Gonzalez is a better student to play zone.

I've even kind of uttered those types of sentiments myself, not necessarily that they have to do those things. But, you know, acknowledging what they did in college, here's the thing about projecting college players to the NFL level. You can't do it based on what they were asked to do or what they weren't asked to do only. You have to fill in some of the gaps with reason and with, you know, finding traits. And when I look at Devin Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez, I see two very good cornerbacks that do different things well. Devin Witherspoon, it is true that he played primarily press man coverage in college. In fact, no quarterback in this draft class played more press man coverage than Devin Witherspoon did. he was very good at it in college.

But here's the thing. When you actually start to break down his physical traits and take a deeper look at his skill set and the things he's good at, it is definitely possible he would be best served as a zone corner. And not only his own corner, I'm not saying he can't play man coverage. He for sure can. But I think to get the most out of him, you're going to want to turn some of those skills and have them implemented against or on zone looks.

One of the things that really sticks out to me is his instincts and physicality. When you see Witherspoon play, the instincts jump off the page, whether he's jumping routes underneath of him or his ability just to innately know where the ball is in the air, play through the receiver's hands. These are all traits that play very well in zone coverages. So him landing on a team that is going to play a good mix of Man in Zone, I think, is ideal. I don't want him only playing man. I think when you look at his physical traits compared to Christian Gonzalez,

Gonzalez definitely profiles as a press man corner better than Devin Witherspoon. Gonzalez is a better athlete. He also has the flexibility in oily hips that you want to see in a press man corner. His ability to turn and run is second to none. He feels most comfortable when he's in chase, when he's in phase, when he's, you know, mono e mono chasing a guy around the field. His reaction time, that's Christian Gonzalez, is better when he is in chase or in phase. Devin Witherspoon's reaction time and his instincts pop the best when he has his eyes on the quarterback and he's reading the quarterback.

And he has a really good fundamental understanding of route concepts and what offenses are trying to do. And that allows him to maximize that physicality, his play strength, his aggressiveness, things of that nature. So while Devin Wetherspoon did play a lot of press man in college, I think he's best served, maybe flipping that role a little bit and playing in a more zone heavy scheme in the NFL level. Christian Gonzalez is the complete opposite. He played mostly zone coverages in college. And his resume in Pressman just wasn't too deep. And I think it's ideal that he probably flips his role in the NFL and plays less zone and more pressed man. For all the reasons I just mentioned about Willerspoon is the opposite.

it is true for Gonzalez. I don't think he has great instincts with his eyes on the quarterback. He's pretty slow to break on routes underneath him. He doesn't diagnose route concepts and breaks very smoothly. I wouldn't say he is a good click and close. So flipping these two roll makes a lot of sense to me. So that's one misconception. Another one that I see all the time and I kind of poked fun at it the other night on Twitter is that Jackson Smith and Jigba, Ohio statewide receiver is a slot only receiver. I think this is crazy. I think this is utterly insane, actually.

I don't understand how people can watch his tape, how people can, you know, scout the traits, you know, put like, if you, if you are in that camp that thinks JSN is a slot only guy, watch his tape and then write down the list of things. It's a thought exercise. Write down the list of things. that he's good at when you watch his tape. And then tell me why that doesn't translate to him playing on the outside.

Because when I see Jackson Smith and Jigba, I see a guy who is very explosive, has a wicked first step. He is an incredible route runner. He attacks leverage as well. He breaks seamlessly through his routes, explosive route breaks, short, intermediate, and deep. he has good ball tracking skills phenomenal hands competitive toughness he has a physical nature to his game he's good after the catch and he's plenty athletic he has all he has more than enough juice to win on the outside he's not small either six foot 200 pounds roughly maybe a little shy of

200 pounds um the the list of receivers with his measurables that have succeeded the outside is enormous. And recently you have guys like Stefan Diggs and A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins and Devante Adams and some of the best receivers we've seen in the last five, ten years

have worse or similar measurables to Jackson Smith and Jigba. Then when you actually scout the traits and the things he does well, there is literally no reason it can't work on the outside. Do I think

JSN is probably like you want him to play in the slot. That is true. You do want him to have reps in the slot every game. That's true for every good receiver in the NFL though. All these guys playing the slot, whether it's Devante, whether it's Stefan. I know Hopkins

has it much lately, but he definitely has in the past. Tyree Kill obviously plays in the slot. So yeah, you want to take your best receiver and put him in the slot because you tend to get favorable matchups there. But anytime you're talking about a receiver and you're labeling them as slot only, that's a slippery slope in my

opinion. I don't think it does the player justice. The obvious case this reminds me of is Justin Jefferson. We fell into this trap with Justin Jefferson where, you know, his senior year or whatever, maybe it was his junior year. He was asked to pretty much just playing the slot. He played next to Jamar Chase and Terrace Marshall Jr. Terris Marshall's a bigger guy, 6-2, 6-3, 200-plus pounds. And then Jamar Chase is probably the best outside receiver in the last 10 years in college football. So what do you do with Justin Jefferson?

Well, he's got to play somewhere, and he played in the slot. And he did very well doing it. That by no means meant he couldn't play on the outside. Obviously, we've seen that now in the NFL, is he's destroying everyone as an outside receiver. Rewind the tape one year, where did Justin Jefferson play? On the outside. and he did it pretty well.

And the leap he made from that year to his junior year where he played in the slot, probably would have happened if he stayed on the outside too, in my opinion. It's a pretty common leap for receivers to make. And just like JSN, I also did not think Justin Jefferson was a slot only, yet the entire draft community. I shouldn't say the entire. There were other guys that were with me.

But for the most part, the overwhelming majority of the draft community thought that Justin Jefferson was a slot only type receiver. I even remember people calling him a big slot, even though Justin Jefferson is not big. He was, Justin Jefferson was 10th on my big board that year. So he was a top 10 player for me in that class. And then he goes to the NFL, and he, you know, obviously has been phenomenal on the outside.

JSN and Justin Jefferson have a lot of similarities. And the only real difference in physical strength is that Jefferson ran, what, four one-hundredths of a second faster in the 40? I think he ran a 4-4-2 and J-SN ran a 4-4-6. Oh my God, who cares? Honestly, who cares? So if you are in the camp that JSN is a slot receiver only, I would love to hear why you think that. Please DM me or you can just tweet me in public. I don't care.

And just tell me what deficiencies JSN has in his game. And if you can do it without citing a 40 time too, that'd be terrific. But please do that. Tell me what deficiencies JSN has in his game that won't allow him to be successful on the outside of the NFL.

And then we can have a conversation about it. I think that'd be fun. So please do that. Take me up on that offer. All right. Next one. I want to juxtapose Will Anderson in what he was asked to do in college

versus Tyree Wilson. because it kind of relates to the JSN discussion as well in an odd way because Will Anderson, you know, he's relatively undersized to play defensive end. He's 250 pounds-ish. Tyree Wilson, on the other hand, is a big monster dude, 275, 280. I think you got a little slimmer during the draft process to try to probably boost those measurements. But point being, they're very different style of players. yet when people talk about them,

they're willing to talk about how they project to the NFL and you never see people cite how they were actually used. And the fact of the matter is, is Will Anderson at 250 pounds, was used on the line of scrimmage with his hand of the dirt at a higher percentage than Tyree Wilson was. So when people say,

Will Anderson, he's an odd front outside linebacker, edge defender type. And when they talk about Tyree Wilson, oh, he's a big, close-sized edge, 4-3 guy. While both of those things are likely true, that's not how they were used in college. Will Anderson has a lot of tape of him playing like 4-I lined up inside of a tackle at 250 pounds and winning that way. While most of Tyree Wilson's reps are him in a two-point stance in an incredibly wide technique alignment. I'm not going to call it wide nine because he did have his hand off the ground, but it was basically a wide nine stand-up linebacker position.

And then where this goes from there is now you have to really get into analytical profiles. I see a lot of people talking about Tyree Wilson not projecting well to the NFL because his production was so lackluster until this past season, which is true, but you do have to add context to this. and when you're taking a 280-pound man and forcing him to play a stand-up linebacker in a wide-ne-line alignment, there's a chance.

It takes him a while to figure that out because that's not the best use of his skill set, just like it's not the best use of Will Anderson's skill set to play him at 4-I. So I think Tyree Wilson and Will Anderson, the whole discussion about them is hilarious. People, you know, they, people are kind of looking the other way about the way they are using college.

And then for other positions, they aren't willing to do the same thing. JSN being one of them. And I see a lot of the same people saying, you know, defining clear roles for Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson based on how they project the NFL are not doing the same thing for JSN. So kind of a weird way to relate that altogether.

But it is true nonetheless. I'm not worried about Tyree Wilson's. So I guess there's multiple fallacies in one. one bullet point here. I'm not really worried about Tyree Wilson's production profile at the college level. Because of the context I've applied, the way he was used was not favorable to his skill set. And after a third year playing in that role, he did finally figure it out had an incredible 2022 season. So I think Terry Wilson is a monster. Here's another one. Is Jemir Gibbs too small to be a lead back in an NFL offense? I think people are a lot of

They're pretty split on this, actually. But generally speaking, I think more people think he's too small rather than perfectly sized. And Gibbs, for me, is not too small to be a leadback. Do I think he'll ever be like a bell cow or whatever? Probably not. The thing you have to remember about guys like Jemir Gibbs is he's a young man with the high metabolism. He'll presumably gain weight. We see this with running backs, especially all the time.

They get a little thicker in the NFL. recent examples I've used are Ronald Jones. You know, he was this uber aggressive physical runner in college and he was, you know, his playing weight was like 204. Then he gets to the NFL and immediately just naturally grows into like a 220 pound body. Didn't look less explosive, but the size fit his play style more. Another example would be like Christian McCaffrey. I think he weighed right around 200 pounds of the combine, similar to Gibbs.

and I think it's no secret he plays between, you know, 215 and 2.16-ish. So he's a really good inside runner. And he has been a Belko. Jamir Gibbs is roughly 200 pounds. Now, you don't really want to pound the rock with him. That's not really his game. But I don't think he's too small to be a highly effective, high-volume player in the NFL. Now, obviously, we have to define what high-volume looks like.

For me, I think Gibbs should be like a 15-touch against. game guy. He'll have spike weeks where he gets in the 20s, I think, and then he'll have weird weeks where you might be looking at nine to ten touches. I think anywhere in the range of outcomes of like Austin Echler to Christian McCaffrey is plausible with Jemir Gibbs. I think Gibbs is kind of who everyone wanted DeAndre Swift to be, but Swift is, you know, he's had injury issues his entire career. He's not really a guy who is willing to play through those injuries as well. So little things kind of affect him more than others. Anyways, Jemir Gibbs is not too small to be a lead back.

I think he is a great fantasy asset for you fantasy players and he should be drafted high in Ricky drafts, especially with this receiver class being a little less than savory. All right. Another one. Izzy Ebeneconda and Bad Vision. I see this all the time on Twitter. And I know, you know, you're talking about a fringe day two, early day three guy. so it's like not the biggest deal to be talking about this.

But it still bugs me when I see bad narratives about players. I don't think Izzy has bad vision whatsoever. I think what you see with Izzy is a very patient runner and a guy who understands his physical capabilities. And let's talk about those physical capabilities for a second. He is a very bursty, very quick accelerator with exceptional top end speed. When you have those things in common, you know, top end speed, home runs, you're naturally going to want to be more patient because you want to find that seam and utilize that speed. Also, you know, if you get in a pinch, you have that burst to rely on,

which Izzy absolutely does. When I watch Izzy play, I see a guy who's really, really good at manipulating blocks. And he does it with patience. And sometimes it can be frustrating, right, because you want running back to sometimes see hole, hit hole. But let's not kid ourselves. The Pittsburgh offensive line was not great. Their run scheme was a little wonky. They used is he as this short, like in these really short stack formations where he's the single back, but he's at like full back depth behind a QB who's under center. So his runway to diagnose and snapshot the line of scrimmage at the mess point is really limited. Like he's literally getting the ball almost at the line of scrimmage.

It's kind of wild with how they used him. And it wasn't every carry. I'm not saying it was every carry, but this is just one example of, of, of, why I think people are suspect of his vision. In those instances, he has next to zero time to react to what the defense is doing. Early penetration can kill those types of plays because the reaction time for the running back is non-existent. Izzy did phenomenal on those plays. And in fact, one of the things he does really, really well that I love about his game beyond the burst and the top end speed is his ability to force commitments from second level players and peak gaps.

or two gappers. He does this with two gappers all the time too. He has the lateral ability in the burst to scare defenders into playing the wrong gap, essentially. And so when he is patient like that, and he kind of will let that lead leg get kind of far out into the next gap, forcing that linebacker to peak the gap, and then he can break it back to from a B gap to an A gap or from an A gap to the other A gap or whatever.

He is phenomenal at causing peaks like that. and getting really, really favorable leverage when he's running at the point of attack there. So I do not think Izzy has bad vision at all. I think maybe some coachable points there on the patience in which he plays with for sure. But I don't automatically equate patience to bad vision. I think what Izzy's trying to do is play within the confines of that system, which was a little wonky and sometimes hard to digest for a running back. All right.

Let's do one or two more and we'll get out of here, okay? let's do Peter Skoronsky Peter Skoransky you know the O line community is saying this guy can pretty much only play guard now not everyone's saying that

like I know Brandon Thorne came on this podcast and said hey he he could try him at tackle but I think he's a blue chip prospect at guard I'm not sure about that guys I'm not sure I think tackle is such a valuable position

and you have such good tape from Skoronsky playing tackle, at least initially in his career, I'm looking past the short arms and I'm playing at my guard, or at tackle rather. He has, it's not like Skoronsky doesn't understand

he lacks length. It shows up in his tape all the time. He understands what his physical limitations are in that regard. And he, he plays accordingly. He has really, really good feet to mirror too. I would say, Scoronsky uses his, I almost said

Loronsky, what is wrong with me? Scoronsky uses his length, albeit limited length, better than some guys use their long length. You see this all the time with really long players where the whole benefit of being length, being long is distance management, right? So when you have a speed rusher coming into your orbit, you can pretty much keep them away from you

and away from that corner with your length or away from an inside counter with your length. well, Skronsky uses his 32-inch arm very well. He shuts off inside counter lanes very well. He has the feet to match footwork of these uber athletic edge rushers very, very well. So I don't know that the length shows up as an issue often. Of course it does sometimes. If you get a really, really long, you know, athletic edge rusher, I think, yeah, he'll give him problems.

But tackle play in general is difficult. And I'm not going to throw the baby out with the bathwater over a couple plays here and there throughout the course of a season. I think he would hold up just fine a tackle. And I'd rather have an above average tackle than a really, really good guard. There's just so much more valuable to an offense. The pass protection chops that Skronsky has, I think speaks for themselves. So I am not saying Skronsky is only a guard.

I think that's a great fallback option. Or if a team, you know, shoot, if a team like, what's a good example? Team like the Bears draft him. This is a great example. The Bears might feel like they hit on a fifth round pick at left tackle last year. They can let him and Skronsky battle it out. And Skronsky, if he doesn't win that battle, he can play guard. You know, if the right team picks Skronsky, yeah, play him at guard.

Sure. It's just hard to justify a top 10 pick, though, when you're talking about a guard. The only one recently was Quentin Nelson. I don't think he's even remotely lived up to the hype. So anyways, all right, last one, and then we got to go. Let's do Quentin Johnston is raw I see this all the time

people for whatever reason the draft community has a tendency they don't they're not able to like multiple prospects in the same tier so for me I really like JSN I really like Jordan Addison

I really like Quinton Johnson they're all very different players and I like all of them a ton they almost score the same actually in my system And so what happens inevitably is people will, they'll throw labels on guys to justify why they're higher on one than the other, blah, blah, blah. Quentin Johnson is raw is one that I see all the time. And I don't see it.

I think his route running potential for a guy of his size is insane. You see incredible detail in his routes. Listen, it's a limited route tree at TCU. But you can't, you can't jump into the habit of saying, hey, he was asked to do these things, wasn't asked to do. these things, therefore he can't do these things because he wasn't asked to. That's just not true. You don't know that. But what you can look at are the traits in which he does the things he does well. And route running is something he does well. That limited route tree runs at TCU. He runs that route tree very well. When he does get pressed, he beats press very well. Probably the two most

difficult things about playing the receiver position are, you know, consistent, detailed route running and beating press within the structure of the play. Like anyone can beat press if you're going to sit there and juke and shake and convulse for 15 minutes and then get off the line of scrimmage. That's not hard. But Quentin Johnston does it within timing. He does it within the rhythm of the offense. Nothing about those things that he does suggest that he is raw.

Like if there's any raw element to his game, it's that he's like an alligator when he greets the football and he claps at it. In fact, I started calling him TikTok. TikTok Johnston, you know, TikTok from Hook, the alligator from Peter Pan. Yeah. Anyways. So no, I don't think Quentin Johnson's raw at all. I think he's a very solid receiver prospect. I think he's got an enormously high ceiling because he does have size and length and, you know, this natural playmaking ability. That's just incredible. So anyways, that's going to do it. We debunked some of the most common misconceptions of this draft class. I hope you enjoyed the show. I will be back tomorrow with a guest. Out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.