Fantasy Football Daily - Detroit Lions with Erik Schlitt | 2023 Franchise Focus Podcast

Episode Date: July 14, 2023

The NFC North is a division in upheaval. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are coming off an extremely promising season. Can the 2023 Lions take the next step and win the division for the first time ever? (Yes, the Lions' last division title came in 1993, the old NFC Central). Erik Schlitt (@ErikSchlitt) of @PrideOfDetroit joins Joe Dolan to discuss the 2023 outlook for the Lions, including how they'll use Jahmyr Gibbs, if Jared Goff is deserving of a new contract, and how they'll handle Jameson Williams' absence. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to the franchise focus podcast here at FantasyPoint.com and the Fantasy Points Podcast Network. My name is Joe Dolan. I'm your host. I've been your host for the franchise focus podcast. We have over 20 in the books. Well, if you're listening to this, maybe over 20 or maybe just 20 even, because we have made our way through the entire AFC and the NFC East,

and I am kicking off the NFC North segment of the podcast series. I can't believe we are almost done with it. 32 of these is a massive undertaking. But again, I think it's something that's necessary. I think it's something that is going to help me. It's going to help people who listen to them. kind of prepare and get the insider perspective for each of the 32 NFL teams. And if you're listening to this podcast, it is at least July 13th.

It might even be July 17th. And I have to point out that on July 17th, which is Monday, we are releasing what we think is going to be an industry-changing product in terms of being able to do fantasy and betting research. It's called the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I am not the guy who is going to tell you the most about it. That would be Scott Barrett, Brett Whitefield, Grant Barfield, and Chris Wecht,

who have put in so many hours to develop this tool. But we do believe it is going to be absolutely industry changing. So I want you to head to FantasyPoints.com and check that out. Trust me, you will be hearing a lot more about the Fantasy Points Data Suite in the weeks, months, and years going forward. But I do still want to bring you, of course, to the main event, at least on this program, that would be the franchise focus podcast series. And if you're listening to this one, you're listening to one about the NFC North.

I hope you enjoy and tune in. Welcome back to the franchise focus podcast series here at FantasyPoints.com. Today I'm with Eric Schlitt. He is the managing editor at Pride of Detroit, the co-host of the Lions Breakdown podcast. He came highly recommended by Brett Whitefield. So I think you can take Eric's information to the bank. You can follow him on Twitter at Eric Schlett. that's Eric with a K, Schlitt like Schlitz, but Sands the Z plus an extra T.

Eric, I can't imagine how much you get that. And as a matter of fact, I didn't listen to our podcast last year, but I'm going to guess I probably said it on the podcast last year. I don't know if you did. But yeah, no, I get that a lot. It's really easy name association. And people don't mispronounce my name as often as you would think because of that, I think. Yeah, everybody has a Schlitt story for better or worse, typically for worse. The Lions have typically been for the worse, I mean, forever.

But this team is kind of exciting. I mean, I've actually asked this a lot for the NFC North, which is really a division in upheaval. What are the general vibes with the Lions fan base around the Lions heading into 2023? I think they're really high. You know, with Minnesota, kind of looking like they were, not as, you know, as good as their record was last year. And they lost more than they gained this offseason.

Chicago's still in a rebuild and the Packers lose their MVP quarterback. I'm sorry, the Pack. Yeah, they said Packers, right? You lose their MVP quarterback. And all of a sudden, the Lions are a team that is ascending. And I think most people are expecting them to have an edge for the division. Packers are going to, you know, make a good run at it, of course. And the Vikings are the defending division champs.

But I think the general consensus is this is a prime year for the Lions to take the North. So I want to get your reaction to the Lions first round. And I think the quote Brad Holmes, the general manager, and I think a lot of the nerdy guys were taken aback because Brad Holmes had sort of become like a nerd, like forward general manager. I was on the live stream with Brett Whitefield when the Lions drafted Jamir Gibbs and, Jack Campbell. And his reaction was just like stunned silence. We know the positional value, but the Brite Helms, and this is the point I was getting to. We draft players, not positions. What was your initial reaction? And what's your reaction now to the Jemir Gibbs, Jack Campbell, first round for the Lions in really a critical year for them with two first round picks?

I think I was probably in line with Brett in the fact that this was very askew from what Brad Holmes had done the first two drafts. The first two, he was very straightforward. He had a plan. He built with the trenches early and he was aggressive, but he had more or less adhered to the positional value theories that I think a lot of people have. So this was very out of the blue. We weren't expecting it in the media room. Most of the media room was pretty shocked by both those picks. So, yeah, initially, I think we were all Brett Whitefield. At the same time, now that we've seen him in spring camp, and we've gotten a chance to listen to Holmes' explanation for why he picked the players that he did,

it makes more sense. They're taking it slow with Campbell. It's going to ramp up eventually, but they're taking it slow with him. Gibbs is being thrown right into the mix, And he is getting a lot of play at multiple positions, which makes him a very intriguing person to watch from a fantasy perspective, from a NFL perspective. And so I can really understand the Gibbs pick a lot better now. And I get the idea behind Campbell. I just think it's going to take a little, he's going to take a little growth before people start accepting a linebacker in the first round.

You mentioned the back foot from fantasy perspective. The Lions actually had two top 20 running backs in fantasy last year in a fantasy points for game basis, and they replaced them both. I think Jamal Williams moving up. Jamal Williams himself seemed to be personally hurt by that. And, you know, I know he's a fan favorite, a guy who's easy to root for. I think we can just talk about Jamir Gibbs being an upgrade on DeAndre Swift. But what makes the Lions convinced that David Montgomery,

who they paid a pretty hefty penny to, is going to be an upgrade in that grinder role to Jamal Williams. The thing with Jamal was Brad Holmes had a cap on what he wanted to spend at the position and Williams was above it. And when Williams wasn't willing to come down or his agent wasn't willing to come down, Brad Holmes wasn't going to wait and be left out in a cold.

And that's when he shifted to Montgomery, who they like equally. What makes, I think, Montgomery more appealing is his ability to break tackles and his ability to catch the ball. those are two things that I think Jamal could have done better last year. And Ben Johnson has a quote that has, you know, made its way around Detroit here, where he talks about the fact that if they were to have broken tackles on play,

there were a lot of plays where they should have broken tackles that would have turned four and five-yard gains into seven- and nine-yard gains. And that was the difference in a lot of their success. And he thinks that that's on the table. And they believe Montgomery can do that with his tackle breaking the balance. With Swift and Gibbs, it's really a matter of availability on its own is going to be a big upgrade. Because Swift, even when he played, he was injured almost every week. And, you know, as talented as Swift is, he just, he never could stay healthy.

He was slow to return. And that was always a thorn in his, in the staff side that he's just, he was just never around. So let's talk about the Jemir Gibbs role. You mentioned they threw him right in. he's playing multiple positions. What kind of expectations do you have in terms of his usage? He's, I don't know, how in tune with fantasy you are in July. But he's pretty consistently a fourth round pick on sites, which it means that we expect him in the community to be a pretty instant impact kind of player for the Lions. Yeah, I think that's the expectation here as well.

the name Alvin Kamara and that and that approach is being applied to Gibbs in a lot of ways. Remember, Dan Campbell was with the Saints when they acquired Kamara, so was Aaron Glenn. And so there's there's a lot of history and understanding how to recreate, you know, that thunder and lightning type dynamic that the Saints had back with Ingram and Kamara. and they really envision gives him that role to the point where he's spending, he's not spending all of his time training with the running backs. He's spending his, he's splitting time between the running backs room and the wide receiver room. And so it's very realistic that he is looking upwards of like 60, 70,

maybe, you know, maybe he approaches 80 type catch season. 60s, I think, the floor. And maybe 80's the ceiling, but I think he can go in, Swift last year was close to that amount, if I'm not mistaken. Swift had, you know, a hand, he's had a handful of like 40, I think he had 48 or 50 catches or something like that. And he was only available half the games, right? And so putting Gibbs in that role and making him available, 60 to 80 catches is, I think,

in his range. And so when you add those catches, then you add what he can potentially do on the ground. We're talking anywhere from like 1,300, 1,500 all-purpose yards. And I think that's, it seems, it seems high, but it also seems realistic because they have so many other ways that they can use them. I think we've seen with the Lions the last couple years that when Jared Goff is protected, he is a pretty elegant thrower of the football. He's smooth. He's compact. He generally makes the right decision. Do you think that's a fair assessment of Jared Goff? and it's when the pocket gets muddied, that he turns into the guy who,

you know, I guess it's almost like with Kirk Cousins, there's like this mindset that nationally everybody just thinks Jared Gough stinks. Sure. And, you know, I talked about this with Kurt Cousins. And I actually talked about this about that Prescott, too. He's gotten to that point where, oh, you know, there's, there's not, it, you have to be great or you stink. Do you think it's a fair assessment of Jared Gough that, I mean,

if you protect the guy, he's pretty freaking good. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, absolutely. When he is protected, he's, he is extraordinarily accurate. And to his credit, he has built trust with that offensive line over the last year and a half. And to the point where the back half of the season, he was sitting, he was hanging in there and taking shots and still making tough throws. And so I think some of that narrative around him, you know, being panicked when the pocket collapses, that's starting to soften a little bit. It's still there. But look, the lions have built the. the entire offense around what Jared Gough is good at. They've invested heavily in the offensive line, which is a staple of what they want to do as an organization. And they haven't had a healthy offensive. They haven't had their starting five offensive line together for the past two years. And now they're all healthy again. And so the offensive line has the potential to be better than it was last year.

And with a offense that leans towards Jared's strengths, I think this is an offense that can, you know, pick up where it left. off and put up hefty numbers. He was generally regarded. I mean, I universally regarded as a throw in the Matthew Stafford trade. Oh, yeah. The first round picks was what you wanted. Goff is just, you match some salary, get back. Now the way I look at it, Detroit's a contender in the NFC North,

do you think it's more likely than not that even though the Lions can get out of Jared Gough's contract after this year, which makes it a pivotal year for Goff? But do you think it's more likely than not that he's their quoth? quarterback 2024 and beyond? I think for sure in 2024 because his contract extends through that year. But really, the only thing he needs to

prove is consistency. He has 324 passes without an interception. His last 324, like that streak is going on right now. And so he was very consistent over the back half of the last 10 games of last season.

So if that carries over and he keeps his intercept, numbered out, he keeps his efficiency numbers up. I think he gets a contract extension at the end of the year. I think it's very interesting that the Lions drafted a rookie quarterback in Hendon Hooker and, you know, oh, you know, young quarterback to come in and, you know, potentially take, Jared Goff's three and a half years older than Hendon Hooker. Hooker might not be ready to play. But I want to get what Brad Holmes and get your opinion of what Brad Holmes said about drafting Hendon Hooker. What does that mean for Goff? What does it mean for Hendon Hooker?

With Hendon, it's really just a matter of they've not had any stability behind Jared Gough and they haven't had anyone that could push Jared Gough. They basically just said, you're our best quarterback, you're going to play no matter what. And across the rest of the roster, there's been competition. And so they wanted to be able to solidify their backup spot while also adding someone who could push Jared to be the consistent player that he needs to be. And Hendon brings that. And it's going to take time.

He's probably not going to be physically ready to go to the regular season, which puts him behind the learning curve of just acclimating to the NFL. And he may start the season on the NFI because, you know, he hasn't, he wasn't, he didn't get a chance to learn during training camp. But long term, this is a,

they've been looking for a backup quarterback that can be solid for two years. And I think they believe Hendon can be that answer. And if he can be more, all the better. Yeah. So on these podcasts, I haven't been taking a whole lot of time to talk about, like when I talked, when I did my Kansas City podcast, we didn't talk about out Patrick Holmes.

We didn't need to talk about him. When we did Minnesota, we didn't need to talk about Justin Jefferson. We know he's good for fantasy. Yeah. I kind of think we're there with Amman Ross St. Brown. I mean, what, 100 catches in his sleep this year if he's healthy. And that's the baseline expectation, I would think. Yeah, 100,000.

100 and then 1,000 is, I think, minimum. Wouldn't surprise me if he exceeds what he, his production from last season, especially with the targets going his way a lot early, and then he just becomes Mr. Reliable. He's the outlet. If there is a player that is a pillar, offensive skill player that they want to build around, it's it's on run.

We know Jameson Williams is going to miss the first six games of the season. Yep. The wide receiver depth chart for the Lions, if you look at one place on this roster, at least on the offensive side, where fans are going to go, uh-oh, I think it's probably the wide receiver position. Who do you think has the best chance to step up to be the number two wide receiver behind Amon-Ross St. Brown while Jameson is suspended? It's Josh Reynolds.

And it's not even really even that close to me, to be honest, because Josh Reynolds is a guy who has a multi-year history with working with Jerry Gough, dating back to L.A. He's been consistently available, and he's been a guy that they rely on. They rely on him in tough situations, third downs, fourth downs. They're not scared to go to him,

and not scared to go to him down the field either. And so he's a guy who, I'm on Ross's a starter. I think Josh Reynolds is an absolute starter. And then that third wide receiver position is going to be kind of a flux between some of their reserves until Jameson comes back, and then Jameson's going to have to earn his way into that starting role, but I think eventually he will. But, yeah, Reynolds is the, Relance is going to be that number two.

Well, I think that's music, well, I don't know about music to fantasy players ears, but that's something fantasy players should take note of because Marvin Jones has a higher draft position than Josh Reynolds right now. And, you know, I think Marvin's a veteran. You're obviously familiar with his game, but is the name bigger than the game at this point, you think? Well, I think he's, he's just older, right? Like he's now he's he's 33 I think now and hell of career.

Oh, I mean, sensational. He's been, he was terrific in Detroit. And at this stage, he's as much, he was brought in for as much of his leadership as it was anything else. Right. Like he is, if you look at what Jameson does well, Jameson is a field stretcher who has to learn how to separate, right? And that's something that Marvin Jones can teach him. Like he can teach him how to get free releases off the line when you're pressed. Like they play a lot of the same.

They play the role in a similar way. It's just Jameson has this next world speed where Marvin never really did. But Marvin is a perfect role model for what Jameson should learn to do, habits, study habits, positional breaks, how to get off the line. All these things that Marvin does really well. He's going to be able to help Jameson with Amman Ra's already picking his brain. And I do think Marvin's going to be the technical starter when Jameson is. out and he and jameson will have to you know beat him to get the starting job and which i think will happen in the back half of the season but Marvin's going to get a lot of the like he's going

to be the name that is going to be on the depth charts he's going to be the guy that people are going to look at but in reality he's the other guys on the roster are all younger than him and they've they've all had a couple seasons with jared golf and they're going to lean on they're going to lean on a lot of the other guys just as much, if not more than they do with Marvin. I think it's fascinating. You mentioned that Jameson Williams has to earn his way into the lineup. He was a first round pick. Yeah. But I mean, obviously he barely played last year. Now he has this incredible, I guess, breach of trust. I think it's very fair to say he is far from a finished product. And what had Lions coaches said about him before and after the suspension about

his game and where he needs to go with it. Yeah, they've been really supportive of him saying that he made a mistake and he's owned up to it and they appreciate that. And it's just a situation that they have to deal with and they don't believe it's something that a mistake he'll make again. And, you know, it's, you know, you can talk about the, you know, whether six games is too many

and the hypocrisy of that goes into the, yeah. But like from a on the field standpoint, though, he's basically kind of learning his timing right now. He's he's so fast that it's, he's still, I don't want to say he's still finding his rhythm with Jared Goff, but he's so fast that when he's not running his routes consistently, the breaking at the same point, right? Or like, or like, you know, his get off is a little bit different than it disrupts

when you're running like a timing based offense. And so then that disrupts where Jared is going to put the ball. And so a lot of times, when you have an athlete that's moving that fast and you're trying to predict what they're going to go, but they're not quite as consistent in their technical prowess there, it throws everything off just a little bit. And so they're getting it and it's getting better, but there's still some flaws in that that need to be corrected and where Jared needs to figure out where he's going to be.

And I think Jameson needs to be more consistent where he is. This summer, though, Jameson is working out with Amman Ra. And if you want to talk about a player that's consistently running the exact same route every single time, it's Amman Ra. And so ideally, Jameson comes in with this, with a level of consistency that wasn't quite there previously. And if it's when that shows up, he's going to take off. I think the lines of one of the more interesting tight end rooms in the NFL, extremely young. They drafted Sam Leporta, who was Jack Campbell's college roommate, as Jack Campbell told me, in the second round. They also have a guy named by the name of Brock Wright, who's gotten some snaps.

They have James Mitchell, who they drafted last year, who's kind of an athlete. Can you break this down, compare, and contrast? And how do you expect these tight ends to be used? So Brock Wright is the incumbent starter. He was a tight end two for the last two years. And then when T.J. Hawkinson was traded, Brock Wright became the tight end one. Wright is more of a Y, right? So he's lined up in line more often, then splitting out.

Whereas Leporta is more of an F, so he's out, he's breaking out more than he's in line. And with Loporta, they feel like he is very game ready. Like one of the knocks with rookie tight ends is that it takes him a long time to acclimate, learn all the nuances of the game. And they tend to take their time before they're producing. They don't believe that that's going to happen with Leporta. They believe Leporta is just ready to go and they can put him out there. And so they're going to use both those guys, kind of like as a tight end 1A, 1B type of situation.

guess is eventually they tend to lean on LaPorta a little bit more. But this coaching staff tends to favor veterans and take it slow with their rookies. So there's going to be a split between the two with it eventually going to LaPorta. Now Mitchell, he missed a lot of the season because he was recovering from an ACL as a rookie. And so he missed the first few games and then he started acclimating. He started getting a bigger role. He is improving as well. And so he's going to start challenging Brock Wright for snaps as well. And so he's going to probably start season is like tight end three. He's going to start pushing for tight end two.

And then eventually I think in the way that they drafted these guys, they're envisioning them as kind of like a, a Lepora 1 Mitchell 2 type of scenario. But Brock Wright isn't going to go away. He's a very, very good athlete, very underrated athlete. And he has size. And when you put those two things together, it's not unheard of. And the biggest thing, not unheard of for him to be successful.

The biggest thing with Brock Wright is that they totally trust him right now. And with a tight end, a former tight end as a head coach, and if you have a tight end that you can trust, he's going to play. I didn't actually make that connection with Dan Campbell. I should have, but I didn't make it. Eric, before we let you go, I've been asking all of my guests, maybe a lower end player, maybe not on the tip of the tongue of fantasy players or national or people who follow the NFL nationally,

who you wouldn't be surprised if he needs. an impact statistically on the Detroit lines this year? The guy that jumps in my mind is Khalif Raymond, and he doesn't get a lot of talk, but he's the guy who may not be the technical starter while Jameson is out. Like I said, that could be Marvin. But it wouldn't surprise me if Khalif has the same amount of snaps as Marvin does. Caliph is their gadget player. So they're going to use him on ender rounds.

They're going to use him on runs. They're going to use him over the middle. They're going to run them deep because outside of Jameson, Caliph's their fastest wide receiver. And so they're going to run him deep. If you saw week 18 against the Packers, the 48-yard, 49-yard bomb that tear golf through, that was to Khalif Raymond. Caliph Raymond is also an all-pro punt returner. He was a all-pro on the all-pro team last year as a punt returner. So if you play in a league that values those yardages or that production, you have the potential for him to see some stuff come out-of-that-production come out-of-that area as well.

So Caliph's a guy that early, I think, is going to out-produce wherever he's drafted, if he's being drafted at all. all. And you may see it taper off, but he's a guy, again, that they trust. And so they're going to utilize him. He was their second leading receiver last year. And like, I don't think anybody would really know that unless they, you know, followed the lines on a weekly basis. Patriot League football, shout out. I grew up, I grew up in a Patriot League town. So he went to Holy Cross. And I grew up in Houston, Pennsylvania, which is where Lafayette colleges. So always love hearing the Patriot League guys get shouted out. Eric Schlett, he is the managing editor at Pride of Detroit and the co-host of the Lions Breakdown Podcast.

Follow him on Twitter at Eric with a K-Shlitt. Eric has been great having you on. I'll make sure Brett Whitefield knows that we've had yet another fantastic chat about the Lions. I have to look over my shoulder when I'm talking Lions because I got to make sure one of Brett's approved guys is on the podcast, and I know you came approved. I appreciate it. Thanks, everybody for listening to this edition of the Franchise Focus podcast.

Tomorrow we'll talk Green Bay Packers with Aaron Nagler. I'm excited for that. And I hope everybody has a fantastic weekend coming forward. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.