Fantasy Football Daily - DFS Early Look Super Wildcard Weekend

Episode Date: January 10, 2024

Fantasy Points brings you the earliest DFS shows out there with DFS Early Look. Jake Tribbey and Thomas Tipple go through the first look at the week's DFS slate from Draft Kings to Fanduel. Get all the early DFS you need to start planning your million-dollar lineup. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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will increase we're going to stick with the trend that the NFL has set I of course and Thomas Hibble joining me is the man that writes the article himself, Jake Tribby. This is going to be an interesting weekend because there's obviously a kind of decreased pool of players. So having that little bit of edge is going to be that much more important, which is why subscribing to fantasy points.com is just that much more valuable. Let's kick it off only draft kings as of now. So normally we obviously read off both. We're going to hit draft kings on this here episode.

But we're going to start it off with the obvious offensive rookie of the year. Miss me with the Pooka Nakuwa stuff. It is a quarterback award. This is C.J. Stroud. He's 6,800. He's only the QB6. He does get a tough Cleveland defense. Let's talk C.J. Stroud. Yeah.

So C.J. Stroud is a really exciting play. And I think if there's one thing we can safely say about Stroud, it's that he's cooked single high-covered shells all season. This year, he ranks second in yards per attempt, third in passing yards per game, fifth in fantasy points per dropback, and fifth in passer rating against single high coverage. If you look at this game through that lens, Stroud has a near perfect schematic matchup, and because Cleveland runs single high at the league's highest rate. But even if you don't buy into the schematic matchup, which I do, I think it's fantastic and Stroud's going to ball out, we really just can't forget how incredible Strout has been for fantasy since Houston turned pass heavy. Around mid-season, the switch sort of flipped for Houston, where all of a sudden, they became one of the more pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. In the five games since week nine that Houston has posted a pass rate over expectation of 3% or higher, C.J. Stroud has averaged 25.8 draftings fantasy points per game. That's 2% better fantasy production than Josh Allen at a 15% cheaper drafting salary for Super Wildcard weekend.

I have a hard time not loving Stroud on this slate, but they're playing great quarterback. because it's such a great weekend of football, I just think Stroud stands out, especially because of this strong schematic matchup against the Cleveland defense that just lives in these single high safety looks. And he's definitely mobile enough to get away from the pass rush right now,

and Cleveland is beat up. And the nice part about this is Cleveland's been scorn with Joe Flacco, so this really has a chance to shoot out on Super Wild Card weekend. And because it is, so super here on the super dfs early look we got two quarterbacks here we're going baker mayfield in tampa bay my favorite upset pick of this week against an absolutely reeling and pathetic

philadelphia defense only 5800 qb 10 that is a significant gap when you look at well baker can definitely put up 320 and 3 this weekend as well with this matchup so let's talk baker mayfield my second favorite quarterback this week as well. Yeah, Baker dropped a total dud in a brutal matchup on Sunday, but the good news is for the playoffs, he is one of the best possible matchups this weekend. Since week 12, the Eagles have allowed the third most schedule adjusted passing fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. And over the full season, Philadelphia has allowed over 30 draft Kings points to five different quarterbacks. That's 29% of their games, including games of 28.1 draft Kings points to Mack Jones and 35 draft

Kings points to Sam Howe. Say what you will about Baker Mayfield, but I think I can pretty safely say he's better than Mack Jones and Sam Howe. And Baker has destroyed bottom tier defense. The last bottom tier past defense he faced was Green Bay in week 15, cooked them for 381 yards and 33 draft Kings points. Over the full season, Baker ranks eighth among all quarterbacks and yards per attempt against bottom 10 schedule adjusted past defenses. He only scored 11 draft Kings points the last time these teams played. You know, it is Baker Mayfield. So always easy to see, you know, a down game as a possibility. But he's playing some of his best football of the season. He was the quarterback five by fantasy points per game from week 14 through week 17. Now he's looking at a top five matchup in every

regard. It's going to be hard not to like Baker this week, especially if you want to save a little salary at quarterback. Obviously, as everyone knows, you're playing Baker Mayfield. You're risking it for the biscuit, but this is a matchup. And again, I can't believe the way the NFL works where Tampa Bay gets the host a game like this, which is an absolute total game changer. We're moving over to running back. Look, in the NFL, it's not like high school. We don't get a homecoming game except for the Rams heading to Detroit. We get a narrative masterpiece with Stafford returning to Detroit hosting a playoff game for the first time in forever. But not Stafford, but Kyron Williams is the player we want to talk about the RB1 on the

week on Draft Kings, 7300. Let's talk about Kieran, an absolute dog, especially in terms of work rate. Let's talk, Kiron. Yeah, so, I mean, you can see on the screen, running back pricing overall, very condensed. We know that Draft Kings tends to condense pricing on these shorter. slates, but at least to me, it's safe to say they made Kyron Williams way too cheap for this six-game slate. Kyrin is averaging 4.4 more draft Kings fantasy points per game than the next closest slate eligible running back. Yet he's just $400 more than the RB2 on this slate in

Rashad White. Among Slate eligible running backs, Kairn Williams ranks first in Snapshare, first in backfield carry share, and first in expected fantasy points for game. If he's earning 27% better usage and is 24% more productive than the next closest slate eligible running back, why is he only $1,100 more expensive than David Montgomery, whose price is the RB9? Yes, the Lions are the single toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing running backs. Maybe that's part of the real, maybe that's part of the reason Karen Williams is clearly underpriced. But even Detroit, being the single toughest schedule adjusted matchup for opposing running backs, they still gave up over 20 draft Kings points to an opposing running back in 18% of their games this season.

So still possible for running backs to get there. Don't let the matchup totally scare you off, especially when Kyron Williams is just way too cheap at 7,300. We know that usage is king for running backs, even in one of the toughest possible matchups, Kyron Williams is the usage king of this slate and it really isn't close. It really feels like you're getting 7,300, Christian McCaffrey for this slate is really what it feels like. And yet, you're right.

just absolutely crazy. A little sad, you're not talking about my favorite running back here in this article being Aaron Jones. But that's not to say we don't have another banger of an RB2. It's Devon Singletary. Talk about work rate. This man has sent Pierce to the sun and has absolutely taken over. Let's talk Devon Singletary. Yeah, you know, you look at the sub 6K range at running back. You know, some people want to play Jerome Ford. Obviously, the Pittsburgh running backs will get some run. But really, I mean, Devin Singletary stands head and shoulders among this tier and arguably among all the running backs on this slate. In a must win week 18 game for Houston, Devin Singletary played on 88% of snaps, ran a route on 77% of dropbacks, and he earned 100% of backfield touches.

To put that usage into perspective, there has only been. one other game this season where a running back has earned a carry share over 90%. That was Kyron Williams in week five. Devin Singletary just had a backfield target share and a team carry share of 100%. So this usage, or at least his usage last week, is incredibly rare and unbelievably valuable. Yet, Devin Singletary is priced as a complete afterthought on this slate. The matchup is tough, especially if you look at season-long metrics, but especially if you look at stuff since, say, week 10, week 12,

Cleveland is only barely a below average schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing running backs. So if we say this matchup's only a little tough, Devin Singletary is pretty clearly the best running back value of the slate. And what is a pretty strong game environment, just given how many guys from this game we've already mentioned and, you know, we'll probably mention as we go along here. You're absolutely right.

This is a game you want to be a part of. And I'm not going to miss out. This workload is unbelievable. I'm smashing that lineup. Look, if you're trying to C.J. Stroud, Devin, Singletary, Nico Collins, your way to a lineup. His price just absolutely lets you do that. Let's talk about a record-breaking phenom fantasy god Puka Nakua.

Look, as much as they didn't want to allow him to break the record over the weekend, with all the double coverage, it didn't matter. He got there anyway. Wide receiver 7 at 7,200. Let's talk about Puka Nakua. Yeah, so as you noted, Nakuwa just broke every notable rookie receiving record. And now he profiles as one of the more underpriced,

expensive wide receivers on this playoff slate. Amongst slate eligible receivers, he ranks top four in both Draft King's fantasy points per game and expected fantasy points per game. And that presents solid value relative to his wide receiver seven, draft king's price tag. I always like to argue against myself. on this show in these articles.

So you could say, you know, maybe some of Nakua stats were boosted by Cooper Cup being injured, missing a few games. But I'll say that what really makes Nakua stand out as a value this week is the matchup and the game environment. This is the highest total game of the six game slate with a 52 total. And the Lions have been the second softest scheduled adjusted matchup for wide receivers since week 12, allowing a league worst, 289 passing yards per game and 1.83 yards per run over that stretch. This has been a tremendously vulnerable past defense. And even if you say, sure,

Nakua's value is a tad inflated because of Cubs' absence earlier in the season or Cups injury, I'm not sure that matters when Nacu is playing in an incredible game environment in one of the best matchups on the slate. I'd expect him to be one of the most popular wide receivers overall, and at least among the expensive group of guys in terms of ownership, I think only a guy that we're about to talk about maybe ahead of him, you know, alongside of course. starry kill cd lamb and some of the studs i just think the him being buoyed because a cup being gone is kind of crazy considering since week 14 it's nine eight 11 and eight targets he is not not seen at least seven targets in any game this season you are taking that at that price it

gives you so much flexibility but like you said there is another receiver who has had an all pro caliber season, when you consider how many quarterbacks he has played with and what he has done, he's put the team on his back. It's Amari Cooper. Finally, in my opinion, living up to what his hype really was, having the best season of his career, my opinion, let's talk about Amari Cooper, who with Joe Flacco is just melting faces. Yeah, so, you know, that's the thing about of Mari Cooper is that his usage and production since Flacco took over has been nothing short of absurd. And his three healthy games with Joe Flacco, Mari Cooper averages a 34% first read target share, 12.3 targets per game, 22.9 expected fantasy points per game, and 29.7, Draft King's fantasy points for game.

Over the full season, those marks rank fifth, first, first, and first among slate eligible wide receivers. So, of course, we're going to consider Amari Cooper an objective value on this slate. But he's an even stronger play when we account for the matchup. Houston is the second softest scheduled just a matchup for opposing outside wide receivers since week 12, allowing the third highest yards per out run and the most yards per reception to outside wide receivers over that stretch. Amari Cooper with Joe Flacco has been nothing short of unstoppable. And, you know, in a plus matchup with offenses that should push each other, I mean, it's hard not to consider him one of the best plays of the slate when you look at these wide receivers price 6K and higher.

Yeah, I'm definitely on team. Just bring Joe back and sit Watson because, man, if we get this next year too, truly amazing. And what a remarkable ride. Nothing to lose. Those are just going to sling it. Cooper, absolute smash value. Just 6,800.

Just seems so egregiously low. Another wide receiver, super cheap if you want to hit a lot of these high-priced players and sneak in some really good production. We talked about Detroit's secondary. and how they've been. Here comes a little bit of a surprise. DeMarcus Robinson, only 3,600. Wide receiver 28 on a very condensed slate.

Seems really cheap considering his big play potential. Let's talk DeMarcus Robinson. Yeah, so I was pretty shocked when I saw DeMarcus Robinson's price. I think he's, you know, very clearly one of the best pure values on this slate. He's exceeded 13.5 draft kings, fantasy points, in each of his last five games. games, earning as many end zone targets over that stretch as Cooper Cup and Puka Nakua combined. Or if we frame this slightly differently, DeMarcus Robinson has seen 82% of Cooper Cup's usage since week 12, but for this weekend slate, he's just 48% of Cooper Cup's price on draft Kings.

Often, we note that these cheap punts at wide receiver only need one long reception or a single touchdown to pay off their price tag. Not only is that true for DeMarcus Robinson, he might have the best touchdown equity of any Rams pass catcher in a slate leading offensive environment. Again, the totals 52. Like we noted with Puka Nakua, the on-paper matchup is very strong. DeMarcus Robinson is going to be tremendously popular as a salary-saving option on both the six game and the three-game slate. He's just an incredible value. Yeah, you're looking for a big play to pop at that price, and he can definitely, definitely do that.

He can get it in one play at his value, and we absolutely love to see that. Let's talk about the super soldier. This guy is an absolute animal. He is Captain America. He is weapon X. However you want to talk about him. He's just a freak. Joe Flacco loves him.

David and Joku. Titan 3 seems kind of wild to me. 5,600. You can really just stack this game. Yeah. There are a ton of great options in this Cleveland, Houston game. A ton of underpriced. studs who are getting fed and a ton of guys who are just really good at football.

And like I've noted throughout this article, it's going to be tough to avoid rostering players from this game or just avoid rostering players that are catching passes from Joe Flacco. And David and Joku's no exception. And his three games with Flacco and a healthy Amari Cooper. And Joku has exceeded 27 draft Kings points twice, averaging 10.4 targets per game, 19.6 expected fantasy points per game and 24.3 draft king's fantasy points for game. If we extrapolate those numbers to the full season and treat David Injoku like he was a wide receiver,

he would be the wide receiver three on this slate by both usage and production, yet he's prices the wide receiver 15. Now, of course, I can already see the comments. We could argue that that extrapolation is far too generous, that Joe Flacco can't keep throwing for 300 yards every game. I do feel fairly safe disagreeing with the notion that Flacco has to come back down to earth, but it's difficult to see major regression from Injoku in a great. matchup, even if you do think Flacco comes back down to Earth a little bit.

Houston is the second softest schedule adjusted matchup for opposing tight ends over the full season. They've allowed the most receptions to the position and the fifth most receiving yards to tight ends. It's easy to see a path to another huge fantasy outing for David and Joku, even if Joe Flacco only throws for 200, 250 yards because his matchup is incredible. Yeah, and we're getting playoff, Joe. I think it's incredibly important. And look, they're throwing it 40 times. They're not going to change off of what they got there. Opportunity is going to be plentiful.

This game is going to be the hyperstacked game and for good reason. Jake, always a great time we get to do this. When does the full article come out? When can people get to it? And what do we have for DFS content this week? Yeah, so full article should be out Tuesday morning. Typically by noon. It's up on the site.

And looking good. And then for the rest of the week, schedule is going to be a little different this week, pretty much just the overarching big slate breakdown. It'll be myself, Scott Barrett, maybe a little bit of Ryan Heath in the background working on that. And then, of course, we will have cashing points for you Friday night, the best show around. That's where we go through every detail of the slate, let you know our favorite tournament plays, what your cash court needs to be. Should have Johnny Proctor on. So that's, you know, even more fantastic because he's a generational DFS talent. So yeah, it should be another great week of DFS content at fantasy points.

We'll have you covered for every angle of the six game slate. A super weekend of DFS for super wildcard weekend. Can't wait to reflect on this and look into next week when we're back here on the DFS early look. Good luck, everyone.