Fantasy Football Daily - DFS Early Look: Week 10

Episode Date: November 7, 2023

Jake Tribbey and Thomas Tipple give you the industry's earliest look at the DFS slate. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Well, it's time for week 10 here for the DFS early look. If you were watching, you should have been. It was free. Cashing points. The Houston Texans that were touted, they all went off. Everyone from Nico, Tank, Noah Brown, and of course, C.J. Stroud, the absolute monster free again. This week is cashing points.

But this is not that. This is Jake Tribby's. DFS early look. Jake, you always say at this point of the week, you're not looking to set your lineups. We're just looking at as much information as we have. What a week last week was. Yeah, last week was something. I mean, it was a super gross slate.

Obviously, you saw everyone who banked a tournament. And so with CJ Stroud, you know, was happy to be all over that on on cashing points. You know, came close myself. No huge banks. But, you know, still still a solid week. Great week for subs. So, yeah, excited for week. 10, which, you know, at least to me is a slightly better slate, still pretty gross in the grand

scheme of things, but certainly better than week nine. We're going to take a quick second. We come back. We're going to look at the board and check out what is going on for week 10. Of course, diving right in. I already see CJ Stroud already pushing the numbers up. He's actually higher than the quarter, first quarterback. We're going to talk about kind of surprising, but also.

not really. I don't know, draft Kings isn't the most reactionary to fantasy, but here he is, especially when you get Lamar Jackson against Cleveland, don't love that matchup at all. Let's talk about Joe Burrow, 6,800 on Draft Kings, 8,200 on Fandle. He's one spot higher on Fandle.

Let's talk about this matchup with Joey Burr. Yeah, so, you know, quarterback on the higher end, I think is pretty interesting this week. you could make a case for any of these guys above 6K and, you know, probably a pretty decent case. But to me, Joe Burrow really stood out, if only because he's, you know, he's looked fantastic these last few weeks and the Bengals are slinging the ball. Since 2021, he's averaged 25.9 fantasy points per game in his games with a pass rate over expectation at plus 8% or higher. And, you know, that would easily lead all slate eligible quarterbacks.

The good news for this week is that Cincinnati has cleared that mark in four straight games. They've averaged a league high plus 16.7% pass rate over expectation over that span. So from this point forward, Burroughs in contention to finish his fantasy's quarterback one. But the Draft King's pricing algorithm continues to unfairly ding him for his injury plague start to the season. He's priced at just $6,800, which is $360, which is $360 cheaper than his average draft king's salary over the final five weeks of the 2022 season. So he's a clear value relative to his current decay salary, but the icing on the cake here is the 46 and a half total, which we wouldn't tout on a normal week. But again, this is a fairly gross slate. There are only four games this week with a total over 42 on the main slate.

We always want to play burrow in high total settings, and that urge only increases on a slate with limited offensive firepower. Does the early indications of a potential back injury just set your alarms off a little bit here? I know this is the early look, but is that concerning when you see that price? Are you not really concerned about shifting off of him if that kind of escalates? Yeah, I mean, that's the thing about the early look is we'll just have to wait and see on that injury info. I mean, you know, assuming you can get out there in practice, I, you know, I really wouldn't have many, many worries here. The big thing with them is just mobility. I'm not necessarily sure a back would dramatically impact that unless it, you know, it was a significant injury.

but you look good on Sunday night, I, you know, I currently don't have many concerns. Wonderful. Let's talk about the second quarterback. Definitely been some concerns overplay more recently. It feels like the magic is kind of wearing off for some people. But this is DFS. You shake that off and you take a look at the matchup. We have to remember that.

It's not really what have you done for me lately situation. And this matchup is nice for Brock. Purdy, 5,700 on Draft Kings, SQB12, great value there. Not as good of value over at Fanduel at 7,400. Kind of a large discrepancy there between the two. Let's talk Brock Purdy. Yeah, so he's a clear draft king's value. I mean, he's averaged 19.4 draft Kings fantasy points per game

across his 15 fully healthy career starts. That's fifth best among slate eligible quarterbacks this season. So, you know, clear value there. Of course, you know, the recent bad games might push some people away from him, but he's so cheap that, you know, he is going to project incredibly well on this slate. He also gets a boost from playing in one of the few games with a respectable total and a further boost from facing one of the league's premier pass funnels. I don't think a lot of people realize this, but Jacksonville has forced the second highest

defensive pass rate over expectation at plus 7.8% while ranking as the second toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing running backs on the ground. We know the 49ers are going to want to feed Christian McCaffrey, but in a matchup like this, they may not have much of a choice. They're probably going to have to air it out with Brock Purdy. And, you know, that that means that purdy's going to end up being a great play, assuming the volume falls into his lap. We need Jacksonville most likely to push San Francisco in order for Purdy to hit his ceiling. You know, if this is some sort of a blowout, it is, it is hard to see the ceiling outcome for for Purdy here. At the same time, I mean, he's just a fantastic value on this week 10 slate.

Like I said, I'd expect him to be, you know, at least in terms of, projected points per dollar top three on the slate at just 5,700, clearly too cheap over on Draft Kings. Entirely too cheap. And I think you're right. The Jacksonville will need to push, but I don't think this is the game where they're going to be able to rely on ETN with San Francisco. I think they're going to need to push the ball.

I think that's where the opportunity lies. You're right. Definitely a big shift between Draft Kings and Fandul on this one, more than I think normal when it comes to what we talk about. Here, shifting gears to position. position groups is a player that I'm happy to see back over 20 carries. He added six targets. He had a phenomenal game.

It's Aaron Jones. Clearly the bell cow boy is back in Green Bay. 6,500, RB 11 on draft kings, 6,800, a better value over on Fanduel doing a little role reversal here this early in the week. But Jake, let's talk about Aaron Jones and his matchup against Pittsburgh. Yeah. So, you know, we know Green Bay was playing it safe with Jones as he worked his way back from the hamstring injury. He had an eclipse to 49% snapshot or 14 expected fantasy points in any game this season. But as he pointed out, that changed in week nine when he posted a 57% snapshot,

52% route share, 23% target share and 20.8 expected fantasy points. Those final three numbers ranked 9th, first and second among week nine running backs. Crucially, Jones also handled 60, 7% of snaps, 75% of opportunities, and 76% of backfield usage in the red zone. And it's hard to see his usage going anywhere from here, but up with A.J. Dillon averaging a pathetic 3.3 yards per carry. For week 10, I'd expect Aaron Jones to be the focal point of Green Bay's offense in what looks like a neutral matchup and, you know, we can't forget Christian Watson dealing with back and chest injuries. He's looking pretty beat up. Not sure if he'll play. And, you know, if he does probably won't be 100%. Would think Green Bay,

relies on their ground game here. So Aaron Jones, especially on Fandul, popping has a really strong value. And, you know, unlike certain other projected values, he also has great upside. Second most games of 40 or more draft Kings points among running backs since 2019. So, you know,

whenever Aaron Jones is projecting has a good value, to me, that's sort of like a value plus because we know he can have that tournament winning ceiling as well. There's fewer running backs in the league that you always seem to get a reasonable price on, that can break a slate. and that's Aaron Jones.

And Jordan Love has just been so bad that relying on Aaron Jones is probably their path to winning. And that's what you want to look for when you're getting these these upper tier running backs at mid-tier prices. It's really a no-brainer.

Speaking of another guy, another guy here on a team that loves to run the football and is in a mid-tier matchup. It's Jerome Ford for Cleveland, phenomenal speed, great balance, you know him well.

He is 5,300 on draft kings. It's RB19. He's 6,400 on Fandul. Also RB19, so we're coming even across the board. Let's talk Jerome Ford in a matchup that some people might think is a kind of a bad bet. Yeah, yeah, it's interesting because, you know, I know Scott Barrett, you know, has told me many times. He doesn't think, you know, thinks Jerome Ford's a little overrated for tournaments,

doesn't think he quite has the ceiling. You know, I think you could argue that. And in this game, you know, he does potentially have a tournament winning ceiling. He managed 20.3 expected fantasy points, which was the fourth best workload among all week nine running backs, alongside the 11th best snap share, seventh best route share, and the best target share at 23% into Sean Watson's first full game since week three. He's an easy value at, you know, RB19 on both sides. if we anticipate about 65% of backfield usage moving forward. And he really pops this week with the Browns implied for negative game script as six-point underdogs to Baltimore. We can't forget that while, you know, the Ravens on the surface might appear like a bad matchup.

They actually are a top eight schedule-adjusted receiving matchup for opposing running backs. And Deshaun Watson is checking the ball down at a top 12 rate. So, you know, if you're looking to pay down at running back this week, to me, Jerome Ford really stands out, if only because he could get there on checkdowns. right and that's where you have to look past surface data and you can do that with the fantasy points data suite all the advanced data went live while the day we are recording this which is monday it is the fastest and it is truly unbelievable what sets the difference in edges especially with what we just talked about with drone ford there's our plug of the day let's talk some wide receivers uh probably the most

in my opinion the most important position when setting a lineup because there are so many options. It can be hard to identify what you want to do. You have Brandon Iuke here is the first one you want to talk about. 7100 on Graph Kings wide receiver 7, 7800 wide receiver 6 on Fandul Dibo back at practice. This could be one of your last standalone IU games for the rest of the year. Let's talk about it. Yeah. And I, you know, honestly, I really like.

like Ayuk, even if Debo comes back. I mean, we know he's been nothing short of spectacular this season. Iyuk is third in PFF receiving grades and second in yards per out run behind only Tyreek Hill. We always want to target spectacular players in DFS, especially when they're faced with incredible matchups. I mean, we already touched on this a little bit with Brock Purdy, but Jacksonville is the second softest schedule adjusted matchup for opposing outside wide receivers. And like I noted with Bertie. They're a top three pass funnel by pass rate over expectation allowed. That's going to force San Francisco to get away from their ground game. You know, they are one of the more run heavy teams in the league. It's going to force them to throw to their wide receivers and, you know, who to throw to.

But Brandon Ayuk is playing like one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. To me, you know, when you look at the expensive tier of wide receivers on this slate, again, similar to the expensive quarterbacks, you can make arguments for any of these guys. But Iyuk stands out as clearly underpriced. I mean, you could make an argument. He should be $76, $7,800 on Draft Kings, especially in a contest where we expect San Francisco to air the ball out. Being cheaper than Mike Evans blows my mind. I mean, Evans has been pretty good across the board.

But as you said, IYook being as good as he's been all year to be cheaper than Mike Evans and then $1,200 cheaper than Amman Ross St. Brown. it's exactly what we're talking about in terms of values for a potential wide receiver 1 on a slate. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. It seems like the ideal place to play Brandon Iuk. And I'd imagine, you know, as the season moves on,

by the time we get to week 16, 17, 18, we're going to be looking at an $8,000 IUC on draft kings. Easily. Yeah, I don't think that's a question at all. I think there's just factual. cool. Let's talk about DeAndre Hopkins, who is getting a bit of a bump here with Hucket, Chuck it, Will Levis playing quarterback now. Gone are the days of dusty Tannahill. Now we have somebody who can really push the ball down field, lots of zip, and it's working

with DeAndre Hopkins, even if it looks like he's running through mud every time he's running down the field. His legs look dusty. But what's not dust, is 6,000 on draft Kings, wide receiver 17. Bandle has them as not as good a value. 7100, he's wide receiver 10. That's a little steep for me, but let's talk to Andre Hopkins. Yeah, it's certainly a big gap in pricing between draft Kings and Fandul. At the very least, you know, it's a good sign for Hopkins.

Draft Kings value that he has been priced up so aggressively on Fandul. You know, that generally means things are trending in the right direction. He ranks 13th in fantasy points per route run, which is nothing short of miraculous, considering he was saddled with, you know, right there at league worst levels of quarterback play prior to the arrival of Will Levis. But now, seemingly, he has a competent quarterback. And he gets a matchup, which could actually force the league's most run heavy offense to air it out.

Similar to Jacksonville, Tampa Bay is a top three pass funnel by pass rate over expectation allowed. And they're a top three schedule adjusted matchup for opposing wide receivers. DeAndre Hopkins is finally getting some accurate targets. You know, he doesn't. He doesn't look like the D'Andre Hopkins of old in terms of his legs, but he certainly still has the ability to go up and catch the ball. And he's seeing great volume as well.

He profiles as a strong tournament option in a game where Tennessee should be forced to throw. You know, this isn't a game we're going to want to stack, but I think if you're looking at just one-off wide receivers, DeAndre Hopkins at 6K stands out as a great value on draft games. Touchdown upside definitely exists with D'Andre Hopkins and a quarterback who is not afraid to rip it. One thing we'll love us is not is cowardice. that dude just stands in there and slings it. We love that from an alpha wide receiver perspective.

That's about another presumed alpha. I don't really know how to feel about him right now, but his price is reflecting that of being the wide receiver two on the team. This is, of course, Calvin Ridley. We talked about the other players in the San Francisco matchup. This might be a nice bring back here with Calvin Ridley. 5,600 on Draft Kings, Wide Receiver 20. Fanduil has him 6,700, wide receiver 19.

So pretty even for value across the board. Let's talk about why this might be a Calvin Ridley game. Yeah, so he's been incredibly inconsistent this year. He's only scored double-digit draft kings points in half of his games. But he has been fairly consistent and favorable matchups. He's averaged 16 draft Kings fantasy points per game and 9.7 targets per game in his three games against teams that rank among the top 10. schedule adjusted matchups for opposing outside wide receivers.

San Francisco is one of those teams. And Jacksonville should be forced to throw in this contest as a three-point underdog. This is important too. Ridley is the cheapest he's been on both sites all season. So he's really popping as a strong matchup based by low options in one of the few games on this slate that has any offensive juice. You know, we're really going to be concentrated, I think, in terms of our game stacks here. And yeah, Calvin Ridley, I think, pops as.

you know, one of the preferred bring-back options if you are stacking San Francisco. Absolutely. He's been hard to trust, but his price reflects as somebody that you want to be investing in for the big game potential. Maybe he has a throwback Ridley game this week. Like he said, if San Francisco's line is going to hit, we need someone on Jacksonville to do it, and per price. Calvin really looks like he's lining up to be that guy. Somebody who personally victimized me all weekend

because I just did not play enough of him is Dalton Schultz. I came up short in so many of my lineups and season longs because I got Schultz. We're talking about him today. We're not doing a Cardinals tight end this week, but we are going to do a Texans. This is Dalton Shultz, 4,900.

on draft kings. 6100 on Fandul, good for tight end six on both platforms. He is just blown up as Stroud has gotten better. Let's talk Schultz and whether or not we think it can keep up. Yeah, so Schultz is averaging 8.3 targets per game, 65 receiving yards per game, and 16.7 draft Kings fantasy points per game over his last four games. Amongst slate eligible tight ends this year, those marks rank second, first, and first. Yet he's priced as the tightens.

end six on both sites. He's been nothing short of a high-end tight-end one over the last month, while sneakily leading all tight ends with eight end zone targets over the full season. That's as many as Travis Kelsey and George Kittle have combined. I really wouldn't expect Schultz's volume to slow down anytime soon after recent comments by Houston head coach Tomiko Ryan suggested that the Texans are going to have to continue throwing the ball as long as the run game remains inefficient, and I wouldn't expect run game efficiency to improve this week against the Bengals, where a bottom 10 schedule adjusted matchup for opposing running backs on the ground, but the single softest scheduled adjusted matchup for opposing tight ends.

We're going to want to get aggressive with game stacks this week, given the lack of compelling scoring environments. And Schultz is the perfect way to get Mark Andrews levels of volume in a premier game for a mid-range tight end one salary. I mean, he's $2,000 cheaper than Andrews on draft kings. It's just a ridiculous value on Schultz if we think this volume continues, which in this matchup, I don't see why I wouldn't.

Again, we talked about Burrow at the very beginning, and we talked a couple weeks back, if you remember on how to get that elite bringback without hitting a different position. This is how you can do that. You can get a Burrow Chase stack with an elite option bring back at a reasonable price with Schultz.

And that's just the easiest way to get that bring back when you have a matchup like that. He is legitimately able to break the slate from the tight end position. And like you said, he's the tight end six. It's just everything's lining up for him. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And I mean, this is, like I said, there's going to be a few games that we want to get really concentrated on.

If you're stacking, you know, the Texan Spangles game, probably not playing a ton of Irv Smith. Not to load up on Dalton Schultz. Yeah, Irv Smith, without that touchdown this, week just ugh oh no someone played them out there and they they might have benefited and it makes me sick a little bit no irv smith talk little irv smith talk as we can get through on this show forever jake phenomenal i always love the early look it really lets us just get a quick glimpse it is the earliest anyone will get dFS content in the business we're number one

so we wear that proudly article comes out tomorrow when we're recording this. Yeah, yeah, the article will be out Tuesday by noon. And then, you know, I'll have DFS study hall out on Thursday. We'll have DFS values out on Friday. Scott Barrett's big slate breakdown comes out Saturday morning. And then, of course, we'll have cashing points for free on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel Friday evening at 7 p.m. Eastern. The hottest DFS show out there.

look, we'll be back here next week for another DFS early look. I can't wait. Good luck heading into week 10.