Fantasy Football Daily - Drafting From the #1 Spot in 2023 Fantasy Football | Hansen's Hints Podcast

Episode Date: August 2, 2023

Have the #1 pick in 2023 fantasy football? Follow along with "The Guru" John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru) as he drafts his ideal team from that spot. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. What is up, everyone? Welcome to another edition of Hansen's Hents here at FantasyPoint.com. In the FantasyPoints.com podcast feed, I'm John Hanson. And I'm the dude supplying the hints. Took a little vacation last week in early July, somewhat refreshed here, ready to rock and roll.

We did turn that calendar and flipped it to July. Training camp's opening up. Draft season is just around the corner if it's not here already. So we thought talking with the guys there, our guys, Scott Barrett, Tom Broley, Joe Dolan, Grand Barfield. We thought it would be a pretty cool idea to do an article and a podcast for each draft position this year. And also utilize the Fantasy Points generator to help us navigate the draft and optimize the draft. And if you're watching this on the video channel on YouTube, this is a podcast, but it's also a little video screen presentation, if you will, It's also can serve as a little bit of a tutorial to that fantasy points generator.

What is the fantasy points generator? Well, it is a tool that uses intelligence and analytics to make optimal recommendations for each of your picks to maximize your draft, your startup keeper draft or your redraft league here in a season-long environment here. So without any further ado, we'll launch the generator. we're going to be doing a mock draft basically my draft plan in action with all my players to target. We'll try and

choose the optimal route in terms of roster construction. That's kind of the whole point here. We're trying to find the optimal route in terms of what rounds do we draft what positions and

the like. So we'll work through it and I do believe I have come up with what is you know, at least now it was of early July. I don't think the ADP is going to change much, only a few individual bases in terms of injuries. But I think we're probably going to be locked into this ADP, at least at the top.

So we're going to do a draft here. Drafting out of the one spot, 12-teamer. I think I'll go like 10 rounds, which is 120 picks. That should be a starting lineup for most. So we'll launch the Fantasy Point Generator. If you're just listening to the podcast, try to make this as painless as possible.

But we are here on the setup page. We'll call this team number one, 2023. We're going to pick the draft position number one over here in the upper left. We'll do 15 rounds, I guess for now, even though we're not going to probably go through all 15 here. We'll pick a flex position here. We got one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end. you know what, I think I might even just skip the kickers and the defenses. Can we please go with zero there? You know what? I like that. So let's do that and let's mimic the fantasy points dynasty league, which we eliminated the kickers and the defenses. And we've never looked back. Don't miss them at all. We do use two flexes, though. So we'll do that. And we'll set it up to scoring and PPR. You can do standard half a point. You can do 1.5 for tight end.

You can do import the scoring from our friends at the FFPC. It's all here. But we'll go PPR. That is our preferred format here. We'll name our team, Team G for Guarific. And we are done with the setup here. We're ready to save the league. We got to check off these two flex spots right here.

We just did that. And we're ready to save. And we're ready to rock and roll. We are on the clock. you can see the interface here if you're watching the video it's very very self-explanatory but we'll work through it and show you what's up you can check off hansson's hints which means as you see in the caption here select this option if you want to have a combination of analytics with john hanson's drafting knowledge and strategies built into the recommendation

So I put through a first wave of nuances and scenarios to map out some intelligence here from inside my brain. I do need a few more tweaks that will be up live by mid-July, well before peak draft season. And by the way, you can use this tool to do your real draft. You just have to manually fill in the picks. it's actually not bad to find the players to take them off the board and then draft your own player. You know, manually track your draft. It doesn't plug into your software. But it is, I think, a great mock draft tool.

So if you get your draft spot, I'm picking out of the five hole. You're not sure, you know, how to go. You can mock it out, practice drafting. It's really sharp drafting. The ADP data is dynamically updated. It's the freshest, most current data. And you'll find with the software, you know, real drafts are funny. Life is funny.

Weird things happen. That's kind of in play with the fantasy points generator software. It mainly goes off of ADP, but not completely, not 100%. Because who drafts off, what drafts goes completely to ADP? None. So, you know, we facted that in. So you'll find that interesting, hopefully, if we get a weird recommendation. or two. There's some other things we can check off here like we can, for each pick, we can toggle to, you know, what are we focusing on for the pick? Starters, depth, or in between? So right now we'll keep it in between. Once again, we're on the clock, so we're going to get our recommendation. And here we go. Right out of the gate, cutting across the grain with the number one pick, despite the fact that Justin Jefferson is projected to score more points.

software saying in Hansen Sense mode, at least, to take Jamar Chase. And that's accurate because that's what I would do this year with that number one pick, trying to catch a lightning in a bottle, trying to catch Jamar Chase's big rookie year, the big year that earns him the big payday, basically the year that Justin Jefferson had last year. We'll see if Jefferson can match it. I'm sure he probably can. But Chase did some serious damage last year. you know, seriously hobbled as well.

So we're hoping for a clean bill of health, and we're all in on Jamar Chase. So now we're going to mock draft to our next pick. You can see if you're watching the video. You can see the draft report, all the players who have gone off the board thus far. Very wide receiver heavy. Jefferson, Tyreek, Cup, Diggs, A.J. Brown, C.D. Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Devante Adams, Yvonne Ra, Waddle, Olave,

Devante Smith, T. Higgins. off the board before I make my second pick here drafting out of the one hole in eight 12 teamer. We'll see what the software has to say about this. And well, it's going with the optimal pick of Ramandre Stevenson. That's under Hansen's hints. Let's uncheck that just to see. And there it is. It's recommending Jalen Hertz, which I would not recommend. That's why when you check off Hansen's hints if you're watching the video, it does not recommend Jalen Hertz. That's an example of the intelligence built in bypassing the actual analytics

basically which say that Jalen Hertz compared to the field, considering ADP and the cost, even though this is pricey, Jalen Hertz was a worthwhile pick. We can also get a feel for what we should do with our picks

clicking this advanced analytics tab. So if you're watching the video, now we're on the clock with consecutive picks. So this is a little weird, but for example, example, if I pass on Ramandre with these next two picks, I could still get a crack at J.K. Dobbins in two picks, which I like. I do like him. If I pass on Hertz, these next two picks, I still have a crack at Lawrence. I like that. Debo Samuel. If I pass on him, I can get Chris Godwin. That's a little bit of a drop off there. Then Mandrews would be the got to probably take with my next pick or I can go

Hawkinson. So, all right, so I've decided I'm going to go, though, running back. And I'm actually not that I'm not that into Ramandre this year. I just have a weird vibe. The way he wore down

last year was just so worrisome to me. So while the see, you're not, I'm not married to anything, even my own mode here. While that is the recommendation, if you notice here, 251.5 points projected for Ramandre.

Josh Jacobs is 250.5. So one fantasy point separating these two guys. They're also separated by like two 80p spots. I'm looking at Jamar Chase, and I just like the pairing of Jamar Chase and Josh Jacobs. So there's, I guess, tip number one for picking out of the one whole little word about Josh Jacobs with this franchise tag situation and the holdout,

but if you are picking it one or two, you get that stud wide out, man, you feel good, come back. I'm not saying it's a value, but in another year, a guy who did what Josh Jacobs did last year would be off the board by pick 24, but yet here he is. He's available, and we do have him projected, I believe, to have the eighth most running back touches this year. So as you see, if you're watching the video, Josh Jacobs is, he's in the fold on Team Gorific. Let's continue the exercise. So with my next pick, which is the very next pick of the draft, no surprise that it is recommending Mark Andrews. Tough call. I do like Andrews, but I also do like some other tight ends like Kyle Pitts. And of course, if I unchecked Hanson sits,

the software loves to stud tight ads. Just know that. Loves them. Probably would recommend Kelsey at 3. I actually haven't checked that, but I'm sure it would. But it does also like

Jalen Hertz here, still available with my first pick, with the first pick of round number 3. I'm going, though, to go off once again. And here's another example of a little nuance. I'll

baking a little bit more of a priority to a wide receiver here because it just is the way the board is set up this year and people are just grabbing these white outs left and right. So I think I'm going to go wide out here after going, running back. You know, Debo, Samuel

would be the pick for me, normally. But I really do love Brandon Ayuk this year and I think I want him two rounds later. So, and again, this is why the software is just a guide.

I'm going to go with D.K. McCaff. Not a big D.K. McCaff guy, but I'm locking in another stallion wide receiver, along with Jamar Chase, after getting Josh Jacobs to anchor my running back core. Let's move on to round number four. Okay? J.K. Dobbins, as predicted. That's why we use the advanced analytics on the board, and that's the recommendation. Let's go back to the advanced analytics.

Now, Trevor Lawrence, I could pass on him with these next two picks and still get him in the next round. So I'm definitely not going Lawrence. Why would I do that? That's what this tab is about. If I pass on Dobbins here, I can still get Rashad White and I love White. I could go Godwin, or if I pass on Godwin, I could get Gabe Davis. And here's the deal. I don't love this, but this is basically telling me, now I could get Kyle Pitts.

because I love Kyle Pitts. I really love Kyle Pitts in round five, though, not at the end of or the beginning of round four. I like him at the end of round five. Unfortunately, I'm going to miss them by like one point. So when I look through all this, I have my number one running back in Jacobs. I know I can get Rashad White still after these two picks.

I think I almost have to go with Hawkinson. So we'll uncheck that and see if the computer likes that and it does. As you can see, that is the recommendation. Let's do it. T.J. Hawkinson, love me some Jordan Addison as a real, real good value pick this year, and a guy's going to probably catch 70 balls,

but look how quickly T.J. Hawkinson basically got off the plane and was fully integrated into the offense. And, you know, I do like having the best possible starting lineup, and I like studs at every position. So I think I'm, I'm, I'm set up pretty well thus far through four rounds, drafting out of the one hole with two, you know, stud receivers,

Jamar Chase and D.K. Metcalfe, got my stud running back in Josh Jacobs and my stud tight end in T.J. Hawkinson, and I have yet to take a quarterback. We're up next tier. Oh, did not mean to do that. And I just reset the entire draft. Well, that was an accident. But I guess we could. and just barrel through this puppy again. And ironically, it goes with, see, it's not the same every time. It goes through Jamar Chase.

So we'll do Chase. We'll come back to where we just were. We'll get Josh Jacobs again. Cannot believe this. We'll mock that. We're up again. In round number three, we took D.K. Metcalf.

We're up on the clock again. We did go Hawkinson. that okay now we're back to where we were uh here we go we are on the clock now with first pick of round five okay jk daubbins is actually still there let's take a look if i pass on daubbins i can still get my guy rashad white if i pass on trevor lawrence i can still get to jean watson who i really like so the question it oh see look and and kyle pitts of course of course course, like I said, this is just one pick ago where I was drafting in round four. I could have had Kyle Pitts. So, boy, this is a tough one because there's a little bit of a drop off here.

I do have my second wide receiver. I think I would prefer to actually get my third wide receiver right here. And let me see where my guy, Brandon Ayuk is. Because, boy, I think I think, I do love me some Brandon Ayuk this year. Let's see where Iyuk is. Round five. Yeah, here he is. He's high up on the board. I do love Ayyuk, and I do see a drop-off here. The software actually recommended was looking at Godwin and Gabe Davis, but boy, I want Brandon Ayuk. I can't quit it. He's so dominant. I know there's only one ball there, but man, he's still gutting for that first big payday. they pick up the fifth year option on iuk you know our guy kaplan told us last year he was a change man and i'm here in this year it's it's boy it's continuing big time so i am good edward receiver in my

opinion so now i can go get my quarterback uh potentially so let's take a look here i can pass on Lawrence in round six, knowing I can get Deshaun Watson. I can pass on white, but knowing I can get white again with my next pick or I can go, wow, this is a little tight end heavy, but I'll tell you what, I'll just play it safe with Trevor Lawrence, bring him into the fold. This is my draft plan at work in many, many ways. What off the reservation just a little bit with D.K. Mackab? It's probably not going to be one of my targets, but, you know, this is what the market

is dictating, and I certainly feel fine with D.K. Metcalfe in round number three. So we opened this thing, hitting wide receiver hard. We still got a tight end stud, and the best of both worlds at quarterback. We just took Trevor Lawrence. So we opened Jamar Chase, Josh Jacobs, D.K. Metcalfe on the hook there. Come back with Hawkinson and Ayyuk. Then it's Trevor Lawrence, and now we're on the clock again. we have no need for a quarterback

and it's Rashad White time. That is for sure. That is very clear looking at the analytics. And so we bring Rashad White into the fold. Nice little value there as our RB2 in round number seven. Moving on. So far this is quite gruific. This is what we're looking at.

And we're on the clock here in round eight. and Hansen's hints, at least, is recommending Brian Robinson. Let's see if there's any difference there. No, the software is also saying Brian Robinson. So, fair, a little boring, but we also went six rounds using only one pick on a running back. This is how 2023 is shaking up and shaping up. So let's go with Brian Robinson. Get some running back depth there.

We are on the clock again. Oh, wow. Recommending another running back. It's a little, it's a bit much. Boy, it's liking these running backs here. So we can also toggle and show everything but the running backs. And I also, I don't care about the kickers or the defenses. We actually remove them from the equation anyway.

Oh, there it is. There it is. My guy, Skymore. ADP of 115, and I'm taking him here at 97. Certainly a little bit of an overpay, but not bad. for Skymore Truther like me, that's about a round and a half over. So we bring Sky Moore into the fold here in round number nine as our wide receiver four. That is a perfect spot for him.

Let's go back and continue this draft. We might end soon because we have gone through nine rounds, and we're up on the clock here. Round number 10. The software is going running back again. which makes sense. We certainly need some depth. It is recommending Jerich McKinnon. We can certainly sort by running back just in case

to see here, if you're looking at the video and sort by the available players, the most projected fantasy points. It's guys like Jamal Williams, Kalil Herbert, Devon A-Chane, Singletary, Kendrae Miller. It is Jerich McKinnon. And we certainly could use a running back. Let's take a look at that advanced analytics real quick.

We can still get McKinnon in a pick. So, yeah, we're looking at a lot of redundancy here in terms of, you know, ADPs are kind of all over the map. So we'll just bring in Jerich McKinnon into the fold. They did not really do anything else. At running back, dude scored nine receiving touchdowns last year. Round number 10, that is not too shabby. We can continue even two more picks here.

the clock right now. There he goes. And Team Gorific is adding Gorific players. Granted, some of these guys disappointed a little bit last year. Darnel Mooney in round number 11. There you go. We're rolling through and perfect. Absolutely perfect. In round 12, again, we did remove kickers and defenses from the equation. So we are just adding quarterbacks, runnybacks, wide receivers, tight ends. I have my tight end one in Hawkinson and round four in round number 12, it's recommending

Joanne Johnson. Just in case, let's see who the other tight ends are and sort by points. Of course, Joanne is the highest point total guy left on the board, so we'll bring him in. That's a sexy

tight end two. So we are about 150 picks into this draft here. We can see the draft report, 144 picks into the draft. This is usually around the time I wrap up the draft plan. You can go another round here.

What the heck. Let's take a look. Oh, perfect. Even better. Another New Orleans Saint, another gruhrific pick that I love all in on Rashid Shaheed. So there it is. A pretty good example of how you can approach a draft picking out of the one hole. We started with Jamar Chase.

So we get that stud wide receiver, feel good about that. We then hit running back right away. We're not zero running back people. We get Josh Jacobs in the fold here. Little bit of an overpay there. Not much. Four or five draft spots at 24 overall. We bang wide receiver again because there's about to be a drop off with D.K.

Metcalf in round number three. Round four, I didn't love, love, love it. But we did pass on managers in round. three to get that D.K. Medcalf stud number two receiver. We love I do Kyle Pitts this year but taking him here in round four

is a bit of an overpay. So we kind of settle on T.J. Hawkinson who, look, we have is a tight end three like everyone else and he's getting a lot of love for obvious reasons. Going to get a lot of targets this year. Round number five. By the way, we pass on Debo Samuel in round three

for a reason because I, boy, love Brandon Ayyuk. So we get him in in round number five. And now we're good, Edwide receiver. Like, we've addressed it. This is three picks at wide receiver out of our first five. We come back with Trevor Lawrence.

Get the quarterback. Best of both worlds. I think he's got league winning upside. Basically like this year's Joe Burrell. Let's not overthink it. Dude had five rushing touchdowns. I could see four to five again. 70 attempts. on the ground. I think the touchdown

percentage is going to rise into year two with Doug Peterson with Calvin Ridley added to the mix. So we're looking at 30 passing touchdowns and 3, 4, 5 rushing touchdowns. So it's looking good. I'm loving it. My guy Rashad White disrespected. Could be a bad

team, but what do you want at running back on a bad team? Receiving specialist. If they're that bad, he could catch 70 balls. So this is a value for sure. Then we go right back to running back we hit brian robinson uh my guy sky more i take him in round nine i don't think that's too much of an overpay uh we get him about 16 picks over the 80p that's not too bad we come back with

jerick mckinan for running back depth darnel mooney very good receiver could be properly cast now is a two with dj more there and he does have chemistry with justin fields come back very grueific very here with Joanne Johnson as our tight end too and we stay sexy and griffick with Rashid Shahid as our wide receiver five very griffick drafting out of the one hole projected starting lineup quarterback Trevor Lawrence RB1 Josh Jacobs RB2 Rashad White wide receiver one Jamar Chase wide receiver 2 D.K. Metcalf.

Wide receiver 3, Brandon Ayuk. Tight end. T.J. Hawkinson. Flex starter number one. Let's go Brian Robinson. Flex starter 2. For a goof, let's go Sky Moore. That could be certainly

Jerich McKinnon in this mix, Darnel Mooney, even in this mix, or Joanne Johnson, Rashid Shahid. Pretty darn good. A lot of good value. Great balance. A couple of overpays, but you know, solid enough value for a stud quarterback and a stud tight end and a stud RB1 to go along with our stud wide out in Jamar Chase. There it is. That's going to be the podcast. We'll wrap it up here and the video that is a look at drafting out of the number one hole using my draft plan, my players to target with a little assist from the fantasy points generator.

Next podcast that I'll do, we'll do this all over again, out of the two hole. Normally I would switch to like or skip the two hole, maybe go to three, but I want to cover all the basis. I'm going to do an article for all 12 draft spots for those who are, you know, maybe they get the you get the eighth pick and you don't know well there'll be an article about it there'll be a video and a podcast about it here at fantasy points.com so that'll wrap it up i'm john hanson we'll catch you next time here on hansons thanks for tuning in to this edition of the fantasy points podcast remember to subscribe rate and review on your favorite platform and come join the roster at fantasy points dot com