Fantasy Football Daily - Drafting From the #4 Spot in 2023 Fantasy Football | Hansen's Hints Podcast

Episode Date: August 3, 2023

Have the #4 pick in 2023 fantasy football? Follow along with "The Guru" John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru) as he drafts his ideal team from that spot. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hey, what's up? I'm John Hanson. You know, for over 20 years now, I've been doing the article on the website, whichever side of Matt. now of course fantasy points.com the draft plan and it kind of started years and years ago when people really did want and need a lot of handholding and I would kind of just walk through almost every pick

and every scenario this is what I would do if I was in this situation when I already did this and all that stuff it is evolved over the years but it basically the article that we produce I produce every year for subscribers, maps out my plan of attack at each position, along with the players that I am targeting and when, and obviously some reason,

analysis, why. And then, among other things, I narrow down the top 300 players to the top 70, my 70, targets, which is about a third of that list, a little bit more than that, I guess, or no, less than a third.

But anyway, the final piece is, I go through and I put the plan into action by drafting teams from various draft spots. Sometimes, you know, I'll do like pick two and then pick four and then pick seven or something like that. But we decided this year to do try it out because it is something that a lot of people think about. Like I got the sixth pick. I don't know what to do. Well, that's what this video is for, the podcast, and the article.

And believe me, this one took a. while because I did two or three versions of it because I went through and didn't really like it. I had to redo it, start over. The questions that you're asking yourself at four is, you know, is it too early for Travis Kelsey? Do I get a running back at four? Do I just hop in on the wide receiver bandwagon? I've gone through all the possible scenarios and I've come up with what I think is the best

plan of action from four. And once again, we'll use the Fantasy Points Generator software to give us some recommendations, help guide us through to maximize and optimize the draft. We're not always going to listen to the recommendations. And if you're listening to this in podcast form, I think it will be pretty painless in terms you can hear as we go through each round and every pick that I make, what we're looking at, other players we're looking at, and the like. So without any further ado, let's get into the task.

hand, which is drafting effectively, optimally, and hopefully goorifically from the number four hole. Okay, we are ready right now to draft out of the number four hole. Let's launch the fantasy points generator. If you're watching the video, we'll call this team number four, 2023, and we'll select the four hole. We'll go with a 15 round draft, a snake draft, out of the four hole. One quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end, no kicker and no defense. But we will go with two flexes, which can be a wide receiver running back or tight end. We will go PPR and we are

off and running. We open with a decision, of course. Do we proactively get a running back? Or do we just get in the wide receiver business? The fantasy points generator has crunched the numbers, and it does go wide receiver. We do have two wide receivers on the board with 295 or more fantasy points. And that is actually under Austin Eckler, who is a 298. But we are wide receiver heavy this year, and I'm going to go with it.

But I am going to probably actually definitely, definitely go with Tyreek. I just think Tyreek is obviously younger. I feel more confident about his ability to be available. The quarterback situation isn't great for either, but I'm going to go Tyreek there. That is a coin flip Cooper Cup or Tyreek and we'll see what direction the software checks for us as we crunch the numbers. We can look at the players going off the board. Tony Pollard and Sequin Barclay just drafted in front of me, along with Jonathan Taylor, four picks ago. That sucks.

Alave, Waddle, Chub, all great picks. And they all go right in front of me. So this is a little bit of a tough start or a tough spot here in round two in a four, in the four hole, in a 12 teamer. But luckily, this is why I'm doing this exercise. I've gone through this and I've gone through a few different scenarios. and I've found that the computer is right. Going wide receiver, wide receiver is the play.

Tyree Kill and Devante Smith is, you know, a little, I don't know how many people are looking at that pairing, but it does line up ADPYs, and it is pretty darn sexy. So we'll mock to our next pick and see what the software recommends now. In round number three, we can look at our advanced analytics and see that we could go debo here, but that would be three whiteouts in a row. We could wait a pick and get Ayuk,

which is what I'm looking at. Mark Andrews deserves consideration. That is a pick. That would be BPA. And we could still get some of these other backs like J.K. Dobbins and Rashad White. That is absolutely a consideration. But with the news still pretty good

as I record this on July 26th on Breece Hall. And knowing that I can get Michael Carter really late. In fact, beyond round 15 probably. Most leagues will draft beyond 100 and whatever, 70 players that we're going to do in a 15 round draft here. So let's just get Brise Hall because it's one hell of an RB1 if, for the long haul this year, if that knee cooperates. Obviously, you've got Aaron Rogers here. We've got the software now with the fourth round pick recommending Dobbins. and that makes sense.

I do like Dobbins quite a bit. But we can see here in the advanced analytics tab, based on ADP, because we're at pick 45 now in round four after going Tyreek, Devante, Brice Hall. We could wait a pick and still get Dobbins. We could wait two picks and still get Rashad White. We could take Brandon Ayuk now or else he's gone.

So guess what we're doing? Because I am extremely high on Brandon Ayuk, big part of the draft plan. I want to capture that potential massive breakout. I know there's only one ball. and Debo's in good shape to report to camp. So I might be overselling Ayuk just a little bit, but even if he underwhelms a little,

not going to be that bad of a fourth round pick. I mean, the guy was a top 20 guy last year, and he's only getting better and better and better. Now, in round five, software is recommending J.K. Dobbins, but I could still wait a pick and get Rashad White. We've got three whiteouts already, so we're good there.

and while Trevor Lawrence is tempting, if we waited a pick, we could get Deshaun Watson. So you probably know where I'm going with this, as I love to have balance and gruelific players at values. It's a little bit of an overpay, but I believe that Kyle Pitts will be a fifth rounder when it's all said and done. And that's when I just took them.

In round number five, that was the fourth pick of round five, a little early, but I love the start here of Tyree Kill, Devante Smith, Brise Hall, and Brandon. I, Uke. Let's go to the recommendation for my next pick in round number six. We can see that Trevor Lawrence is the pick, but if I waited a pick, I could still get Deshawn Watson. Now, I could take Rashad White,

but if I waited a pick, I could still get Rashad White again. So, it's not, it's a tough call, basically. I only have the one running back, though, and I probably shouldn't mess around with Rashad White. I think I should just get them. That's what the software says. So let's do it. We're pretty much listening to the software.

We've gone off of it a couple of times, but we are in lockstep with it. And of course, amazingly, this is the beauty of the software. Even though we're at PIC-76 and it's 80 people, is 67. Lawrence is still available. Now, he's probably going to go off the board with the next pick if I don't take him here. But that's the beauty of this software

because it is randomized. And Trevor Lawrence will fall to 76 in some drafts. It happens. We don't have drafts to actually go completely off ADP, so we're bringing him in to the fall of force. Sure, because we essentially now have our starting lineup out of the forehole

with Trevor Lawrence, Brise Hall, Rashad White, Tyree Kill, Devante Smith, Brandon Ayuk, and Kyle Pitts. That is as grueific as it gets in round number eight,

the software is going to recommend. I need to almost tamped down Brian Robinson's projection because it's very fair but man, the software loves him.

So that tells us that he's a really good value. We could take him here, no, but why would we? Because if we waited to pick, it'd still be available. Now, Sky Moore, though, is really going to be a hot commodity soon here.

So I might have to take him, but then again, we're still only at pick 93. It's a little early. I'm going to go off the reservation a bit because I'm really starting to feel this one too. I mean, just things are lining up for a number of players this year for me. And James Cook looking like a very good pick

in round number eight. And he is my RB3. That's not bad at all. considering he's going to have a very large role with the Buffalo Bills. Let's see what software. Once again, Brian Robinson. I really hate to do this to Brian Robinson, but if I don't take Sky Moore here,

his ADP right now is 100.8, and I'm at Pick 100 in round 8, so you'd be damn sure I'm getting my guy Sky. More, the hype train is probably already left the station. I think Sky's ADP is already up 40 spots, 30 spots. Back in February, I'm saying that Sky Moore is going to be the guy, knowing that Cadarious Tony should be the guy, but can't do it. The guy just can't do it.

All right, here we go. Back to the draft, round nine, I take Sky Moore as my fourth receiver. So a little light receiver. I mean, let's see. The software is recommending Jerich McKinnon. Let's see if I unchecked the Hansen's Hintz mode. It's still going Jerich McKin. let's see if I uncheck running back what would be the pick Aaron Rogers not really

I don't like that um Jacoby Myers is very boring so when I look at the all the best players available I hate to say it but Khalil Herbert really stands out I'm going to go with it I'm feeling Khalil Herbert too it's him and James Cook look at these uh very interesting tweener types but they could be their team's primary backs. In fact, they should be, especially Cook. So this is a nice value in rounds 8 and 10 for these two running backs. By the way, pop off film, especially Herbert averaging over, actually it's at five yards a carry for the career thus far,

and it's a decent number of carriers. We can still get, by the way, Jerich McKinnon, who kind of seems a little too good to be true here. I just took him at like 121 overall or something. something but the guy was a league winning type and he is only my r b4 so we are drafting very gruffically here and we'll see what we see and the software is going to recommend uh cole commit that's certainly not bad um we are a little light at receiver though let's take a look at our best options there rashi rice oh wow rashit shah he just went see that's the

randomization of this because I just did a version of this a couple of minutes ago that's not in this video and I don't know maybe Rashid Shahid is there I don't see him drafted let's go back to our available players and let's see let's just sort by ADP we are a little light receiver with Skymore only our fourth even though I'm you know very high on Sky Rishi Rice KJ Osborne MVS no no no Alec Pierce is good. Oh, there's Shaheed. I mean, it's a little early for Shaheed.

His ADP is 160 and we are at 140. We can also, if you're watching the video, sort by projected points of the available players, obviously, and that's going to be quarterback heavy. Shaheed, though, is the pick. So we'll do it. I am projecting him to score the next most points at wide receiver. It's a little bit of an overpay,

but I'm very much into Rashid Shaheed. There you go. Cole Comette was still available with our next pick. So now we are into round 14, winding down the draft. Been taking this guy pretty much every time. Kenny Pickett. Can't have everybody. I mean, there's a lot of guys here I kind of like.

Brock Purdy and Joanne Johnson, Jaden Reed, Taj Spears, Kenny Gainwell even. But we need to get a good QB2. We'll just do that just in case with Kenny Pickett in round 14. honestly it does help make our team look a little stronger I think in terms of points and now software is going to recommend Bryce Young which is not ideal let's get another receiver and I've been taking this guy a lot Paris Campbell as that sixth receiver not bad Wondell Robinson and Sterling Shepard opened up Giants training camp on the whatever NFI or PUP and

they're not counting on those guys right away. Darren Waller going to be in the slot a lot, but Paris Campbell is getting running back handoffs. He's going to be their main slot likely to open the season, so I like him a lot. So let's take a look at the projected starting lineup. Very gruel. Trevor Lawrence, Breeshal, Rashad White,

Tyree Kill, Devante Smith, Brandon Ayuk, Kyle Pitts, with James Cook and Sky Moore, in the flex with Khalil Herbert Jerich McKinnon as backups, that's R.B. 4 and 5.

And then Rashid Shehid and Paris Campbell as backups. That's wide receiver 5 and 6. And Cole Khamet tied in 2. Can he pick it to QB2? So very good team, very balanced. I feel like it was maximized

in terms of getting a lot of potential value and also following the trends to a point where we're not weakened by ignoring those trains. In other words, getting in the wide receiver-weiser business, going wide-receiver to open the draft. It's a tough spot in the four-hole, but I think I have just illustrated, as of right now, that wide-receiver, Y-receiver is a good way to go

because you can probably get a decent running back in round three and then our guy Rashad White is a real savior. You know, it's a good year, I think, to get Kyle Pitts. Didn't say that last year. IU continues to ascend. This team is sexy. James Cook, Sky Moore, with cadaverous Tony already down. So looking good.

Let's see what the software says, though. It does add up all the projected scores for the starters and the non-starters. And this 12 teamer, let's see where this one stands. It should be high because we did listen to the software. for quite a bit and we came in first in starter points and second out of 12 in total points, not too shabby. And those starters again, Trevor Lawrence, Brise Hall, Rashad White, Tyree Khill, Devante Smith, Brandon Ayuk, Kyle Pitts, James Cook, Sky Moore. Very, very gruerific. Thank you for listening in.

Now, I'm not going to be able to do this periodically in August, but the draft plan article on the site for Fantasy Point subscribers, I will go through this and basically paste in a screenshot of teams drafted. I'll do it once a week in August, basically, to stay up with the ADP to make sure you're getting the tightest advice ever. Again, this happens every year. These teams are unbelievable in June and July, all players I like. then they because I like them there's usually a reason they start rising up the board due to all the

positive things that I saw in the offseason and then the ADP gets tighter and these teams are not really realistic but this one here looks damn good at least to me on July 26 that's a wrap on this edition of Hansen's hints make sure you tune into the other draft positional podcast here we'll do some more stuff obviously podcast wise and video wise on the Fantasy Points feed. So subscribe wherever you get your pods, like, comment, good stuff, all that on the video. Help us out. And until we catch you next time, I'm John Hansen. And this has been another edition of Hanson's Hits at FantasyPoints.com. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.