Fantasy Football Daily - Drafting From the #5 Spot in 2023 Fantasy Football | Hansen's Hints Podcast

Episode Date: August 4, 2023

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It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. What's up? I'm John Hansen. Welcome to another edition of Hanson's Hints here at FantasyPoint.com, Whether you're listening to a podcast or watching a video, just know that there's also an article to go with this podcast slash video, which is one of 12. And to get into why I'm doing these,

every year I do the draft plan article on the website. The best ball draft plan version of it is already up there at fantasypoints.com. The main version I usually release right after the first of August, which will be the case this year. but part of that big article and exercise is I map out my plan of action and all the positions and they include the players that I'm targeting and when and all that. I narrowed down the top 300 players on the board ADP-wise to my favorite 70 targets, pretty exclusive company there.

But I also mock draft basically put the draft plan in action and mock draft from a variety of spots. Okay, let's draft a team from the five hole using the fantasy points generator. And we'll set this up here if you are watching the video. A little tutorial on the fantasy points generator as well. It's very user-friendly, very intuitive. We'll go with one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end, no kicker, no defense. if you're watching the other picks here in the videos you know the drill by now we're going to pick that five hole

we've named this team blah blah blah these are all fake names the software does save all these draft so it's a great um mock draft tool you can certainly just delete them all if you want but we will keep them here and we'll go with a ppr format so 12 team 15 rounds out of the five hole snake draft one quarterback two back's three wide receivers to the tight end, two flexes, any skill position other than quarterback, PPR, and we go. We mock draft to our pick. It's probably going to be a wide receiver, but yeah. Oh, Tyreeks, see, that's the randomness of this.

Well, his ADP is 4.6, and we're at 5, so we'll consider ourselves a little fortunate. it absolutely could happen to you and your draft if he falls to, if you're at five. Let's move on to round two. And very similar to what happened in round four, we tested that out. We went a number of different directions. And it did turn out that wide receiver, wide receiver was the start from four and now five as the software picks Devante Smith. So Tyreek and Devante Smith pretty good.

are in pretty good shape, needless to say, at wide receiver, and that's very important this year. I'm kind of viewing this as the most important year I've ever, I don't know what, I feel it, and it's happening in the markets, but I also feel it's like the running backs are just down the board and let's just find those great values. So it's more important to get into that wide receiver business. So we open wide receiver, wide receiver now in round three. The BPA is marked, Andrews again. And do we take Mark Andrews here? No, we don't because there's another tight end, as you know, probably, that I'm very much into.

And so we're going to really mimic the team I just drafted from the four position and go brace hall once again as an anchor running back, knowing that it's a long-term play for the 23 season, and we do have Michael Carter a pretty sneaky handcuff right now as I record this on July 26th. Pretty sneaky handcuff. So we open Tyree Kiel Devante Smith-Briesole. Again, we're using very current ADP as of right now using the Fantasy Points Generator as our guide. We don't always listen to the software, but I'm trying to find the best path for those of you at the number five spot. And this, this is pretty much it. Wide receiver, wide receiver. running back and here we are up in round four.

Software says, survey says, JK Dobbins, not a surprise. Let's take a look at the advanced analytics here. We could go Burrow. Dobbins, we're not taken because he would be available technically by the ADP

if we waited a pick. Could go IUC. And again, that is the play. because of our guy, Rashad White, that is the play once again. So again, we don't take Dobbins here because he's available with our next pick.

So we are going to load up on wide receiver and get our guy Ayuk again in the fourth round as our wide receiver three again. And that's pretty much a big foundation of the plan. So next up, in round number five, Trevor Lawrence, or we can wait

on Deshawn. We can go JK Dobbins or we can wait on Rashad White. Chris Godwin, no. Clearly the pick. Now we could wait a pick, but it's risky. So we're just going to get him right now. Very similar again to

Team 4. I'm just getting Kyle Pitts. I know that's a little early but he's going to be a fifth round pick by the time we get for real time. in mid to late August.

Mark my word, that 68 ADP will quickly turn into like, you know, 58, 55, something like that. Moving on to round number six here, drafting out of the five hole. Let's see what we see. We've got, we're good at receiver. We've got three wide outs. We've got one hopefully stud running back in Brace. And we've got a stud tight end. So we got great balance.

We can go in a number of ways. And, you know, clearly Rashad White stands out. We can still hold off a pick and get Watson. Or, I mean, we could truly dominate and get Jordan Addison as our four and then come back and get White, but then we miss out on Watson. No, we can't have it all. So it's basically, do I want Lawrence and White or Watson and White, basically? I pretty much have my pick of it based on the ADP.

Hmm, that is a close one. I will just grab, I'm going to go with the software. Software says white. I'm undecided, so that's what we'll do. And we'll move on and it'll probably, there it is, select, and recommend Lawrence, absolutely, positively, no problem with it. I have Lawrence higher than Watson, so I should go that route. So thus far, we're looking very similar to Team 4, but really, really good.

Boy, if you can do something similar to this in your draft in late August, you're winning for sure. And some leagues are out there, the guys aren't people, girls too, aren't totally dialed in. And you could draft the team, this gru-rific. It's been done many, many times. All right, so the software and the numbers really love Brian Robinson. But once again, he's probably a guy we can wait on and still get him in the next round. Quarterback, we're good. We can go Skymore here, which is probably what we'll do and what we should do.

ADP right now is 100, so we're only taking them eight picks. I've been taking Skymore 20 picks in front of his ADP for years now. So let's go with him in around number eight. That is one heck of a wide receiver four potentially. Ooh, boy. If he's the number one target in KC, other than Kelsey, which we are 100% trending that way. I know it's early.

But cadaver as Tony is, he's down for the count. Once again, let's move on. Drafting out of the number five hole, we're quite griffics thus far. Tyree Kill, Devante Smith, Bruce Hall, Brandon I. You, Kyle Pitts, Rashad White, Trevor Lawrence, Sky Moore. Round and I, we're drafting against the computer and the software that's optimized to maximize points and we're using ADP as our guide. And once again, we can kind of go any different

direction. We are once again getting that recommendation of Brian Robinson. We'll check the advanced analytics. Again, no sense in looking to the quarterback. We are. we are in need of a running back. That is for sure. We've not really addressed it all that much. So I know it's a little boring. I'm going with the computer. I think Brian Robinson is actually the pick in this situation for sure.

And that does stabilize things a little bit with Brice Hall. So now we've got Rashad. We could use Brian Robinson. God forbid, Brice is out week one as our RB2. And we are not going to be done addressing that running back spot. Sure. Certainly going to get Michael Carter as well. We are not going to get a backup quarterback at this juncture. So we'll uncheck the quarterback if you're watching the video. I'm just slowed down by this. Yeah, I think we are going running back again. We've got Sky Moore as our Y receiver 4.

The best wide outs on the board are Juju. I'm not a juju guy, Nico Nicole Collins. Romeo Dobbs is interesting. I mean, it really is. But I'm not that interested right now until we get some really good news. Jerich McKinnon is what I'm looking at. I certainly could go with my guy, Darnel Mooney. I don't want to be taking Mooney every damn draft.

I'll get more running back depth than the relatively safe Jerich McKinnon. I mean, I think he's a good depth guy, good R.B4. Dude was a league winner last year. He could score at the drop of a hat. so we bring him into the fold and we move on to round 11. Hmm, interesting. Dalton Schultz, it's the first time I've seen him come across my desk, but it does make some sense.

What's the advanced analytics has to say about it? We're going to probably wait another round on our guy, Kenny Pickett, quarterback. Running backs don't do much for me right now, so I'm glad we just got McKinnon and Robinson, that's for sure. That's why the software was recommended. ending it, by the way. Because look at that drop-off.

We go, Jamal Williams, Devin Singletary, then Tage Spears. I love Tadje Spears, but, I mean, not this early. You know, Jacoby Myers, Adam Theelan, yeah. Schultz or Kemet, I guess Schultz is projected to score more points. Yes, he is, by about nine and somewhat considerable. Yeah, we'll bring them into the fold. It's not a bad tied-in to at all.

He should be the rookie quarterback's Blanky there in Houston. All right. Moving on around 12. We're looking good. And just adding as my, oh, interesting. You know, I have not been getting Adam Thielen as a pick. And boy, it's boring. Is that two boring picks in a row for yours truly?

We'll see what the advanced analytics says, by the way. you know, if we passed on Thielen, we can get Rashid Shaheed, who's much more gruevific. But we just took a, you know, oh, we could certainly just go Pickett. Let's see, what is Pickett's ADP? 169.

We're only at 140. All right, we'll take Thielen. All right, we'll do it. We'll be a little boring. We'll see how the team looks. Score-wise. Thielen, though, I mean, he is on my list. of targets. We are

140 in here. So do think he's going to give you potentially a nice 60 catches cheaply. So let's move on and I'm sure we're going to be adding, well, Devin Singletary just does not do it for me.

The numbers are going to say sure because you've got to give them some touches. But no, I think we're going right back to receiver. And after that boring Thielen pick, we're going to get a little grueific. Take a look at the running back situation, though.

We could use another back of note, but Singletaire is just so boring. Let's see. Roshan Johnson is a decent stash and hope. Jerome Ford, a decent stash and hope. Kenneth Gainwell, these guys are all about the same. Tage Spears, Zique. Man, he's really jumping out at me here at 150.

I've got to tell you. Singletary's ADP 155. Gainwell 165. I just fell asleep. This is so boring. There you go. You know what? How about a little Alec Pierce action?

Or the other guy, I'm sorry. Rashid Shaheed. That's the guy I was looking for. We're going to do it. Rashid Shahid, so there we go. Now we're pretty good at receiver. we're going to get Ken Pickett here. There it is.

And now we've got a good backup. QB. And we're going to end the draft probably with, probably with a Stash and Hope running back with upside, like maybe a Chase Brown. Let's take a look. Boom. There it is.

Oh, boy, do I know this software or what? Well, Chase Brown is an outstanding Stash and Hope pick, and we'll make it. Even though we don't have Joe Mixing. And keep in mind, mind Michael Carter's ADP, as I tape this on July 26, is still over 200, well over 200. And we're not even at 175 in this draft.

So consider him on this squad. So here we go. The draft is complete. And we shall see how I did drafting against the software. The software is optimized to draft the most points. using our projections, my own projections. But the way the picks are organized and recommended, it's supposed to be, it is optimized and recommended.

But sometimes I go off of that recommendations. I'd say I followed it probably 10 out of 15 times here. So it might be one of those deals where I'm like first in total points or first and starter points and then second in overall. But maybe worse. I really don't know. So let's take a look. look at how I did drafting from the number five spot.

And okay, boom, nailed it. Starter rank one, total points rank one. So I beat the computer and drafted a team that is projected, at least per our projections at fantasy points.com, which are mine, to score the most points. and the squad is let's take a look at the starting lineup Trevor Lawrence Brees Hall and Rashad White

Tyree Kill Devante Smith Brandon Ayyuk Kyle Pitts at tight end we've got Sky Moore in the Flex along with Brian Robinson

slash Jerich McKinnin slash blah blah blah bunch of other guys Maybe I like the team four a little tiny bit better, but this one actually came out with the most points. So there it is, something of a roadmap for you drafting in the number four hole or five. I think you do again in this spot. You know, I'll do videos for the end of round one here where I won't be saying what I'm about to say.

But if you're in this range four to five, I believe you should be focusing. on wide receivers. Get them while you can. There will be quality backs available likely in round three and beyond. Like Breece Hall, the guy I took. So get in that wide receiver business. Try and get a little value

with tight end and quarterback as I did. That's my ideal plan. But look who I have. These are quality options, at least potentially in Kyle Pitts and Trevor Lawrence. Take advantage of the running back depth with Rashad White,

which we do in pretty much every draft. and Sky Moore. You know, if you're unfamiliar, those were my two favorite guys last year. The rookie class said a lot of big, big things about them. Well, you know, it's really close to being accurate. Rashad, looking at 300 opportunities this year with Leonard Fournett off the roster,

which I thought would happen. And he's done about as well as I could have hoped in Sky Moore right now. Tough rookie. but you know what happened they they put too much on him really and the reason they did that is because sky moore's the man and we will all find it out you will all find it out out there and skeptical of my guy sky more but anyways good vibes on those guys good vibes on these team on this team right here so thank you for listening like subscribe comment hook us up all that good stuff and

check out the fantasy points data suite. If you haven't set up at least a trial account so you can test drive this data tool that's going to be revolutionary in the fantasy sports industry, it really is the most ambitious project, I believe, in the history of fantasy football content, at least in terms of data analytics.

So for another episode of Hanson's hints, I am, in fact, John Hansen, saying we'll catch you next time. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.