Fantasy Football Daily - Drafting the NFL's Best Divisions | Take Talk Podcast

Episode Date: July 8, 2023

What are the best divisions in the NFL? What divisions have the easiest crossover schedules? Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and Chris Wecht attempt to figure that out with a divisional draft, in which they go pick-by-pick to predict which divisions will produce the most and fewest total wins among their four teams. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Ready? Set. It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. We are back with another episode of Take Talk. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield. And today we are joined by Chris Wecht. Steve is presumably unavailable.

This has been a crazy week with the 4th of July. I'm sure we'll be recording this and Steve will hit me up and say, hey, man, are we recording today? That's just the way the week's kind of been, but I have a limited schedule today. So Chris was available. He had a great idea for a podcast topic, so I thought we would jump in and knock it out really quick.

Chris, how are you? I'm doing good. Yeah, we'll just have some fun on this holiday week and, yeah, do a little fun draft here. Yeah, easy listening is what I like to call. It's kind of like listening to Guru in the morning over on Sirius XM. It's easy listening. Nice and gentle football discussion here.

But Chris, I mean, this is your idea. So why don't you roll out the plan and what we'll be doing? Yeah. So I thought it'd be fun, a little bit of different way to talk about teams and, you know, who we like and who we don't like if we took, you know, we'll go back and forth here, drafting our favorite divisions to who are, what divisions win the most game. and we'll draft them now and we'll come back at the end of the year and add up the win totals for each team so if you want to draft the chiefs you've got to draft the raiders chargers and broncos with them

if you uh you know i'm trying to think what divisions have like one really good team um you know the probably like the nfc west you know the rams and cardinals aren't like super popular but the niners and seahawks might be uh so yeah we'll uh we'll take Do you want to do just do you want to do the snake draft or do you want to do just back and forth? Wow, I hadn't thought of that. Is there a, you think going snake style is too big of an advantage? Probably. I don't think there is a clear 101.

So I don't know if it matters that much. But I don't care. Let's do a third round reversal. Jesus. Snake, third round. So it basically be, no, let's not do that. Let's not. Let's just go back and forth. All right. And then someone needs to take tally. I'll take tally. Because at the end of the year, we'll come back and see who is more right. Yeah. Oh my gosh. My new mics out. Even typing is hard. Like I can't type and talk. I got to fix this microphone. All right. I'll flip a coin and then we'll decide who goes first. Okay. Heads or tails, Chris. heads heads it is

so Chris gets the first pick all right I'm going to go oh boy I'm going to go with I'm going to go with the NFC East I think you don't yeah I mean obviously the Eagles are in it they've got a 10 and a half win total from Vegas

the other teams are pretty middling but I think the NFC is just overall really bad. I think they're, I mean, we saw last year three teams made it in the playoffs from this division. I think, I don't think you can get, I like attacking these NFC teams and thinking they, you know, they can get some good wins. So yeah, I think the Eagles are a lock for over 10 wins. I think the Giants probably have some regression coming for them, but I think they'll still, you know, like eight wins feels like their floor. Dallas probably also I don't know if they're a double with digit. The NFC is just so bad.

So I kind of like getting the best team in the NFC and then some other teams that are at least somewhat competitive. When you said there wasn't a clear 101, I disagreed, but I didn't want to say that because I wanted the first pick. And I would have picked them. Obviously the Eagles, the Vegas line on the Eagles is weird to me. 10 and a half seems low for a team that pretty much dominated every game. They had a starting quarterback in last year. I think it's a strength of schedule thing. So despite them being a weak NFC, they do play the, they play the AFC so you get the Bills,

dolphins, Patriots. And they're playing a first place schedule. So the other non-conference, non-division games are going to be first place teams, which. Right. They get the chiefs. They get, yeah, San Francisco. Yeah, they're bills. They're getting basically every top, you know,

team outside of like Cincinnati might be the only one that they're like not playing. Right. Well, beyond that, I think the Cowboys have probably a top five roster in the NFL pretty easily. I think Washington is due for a little bit of an upgrade. I mean,

none of these teams are tanking either. They're all trying to win. Washington especially, they really need to win. And then the Giants, while they might be due for a small regression, I still think they probably get the 7-8 wins. Right, that's why I think that's their floor. Yeah, and then if Washington's competitive or more competitive,

they're at 7-8 wins as well. I think Dallas and Philly are both double-digit candidates. I mean, I think you have a really good chunk of wins coming from this division. So I'm completely fine. I think this is the right overall first overall pick. All right, I'm going to go with. I think the only other candidate for 101 would be the AFC West. Oh, it's not who I had, but no, no, okay.

They're definitely close. I think the next two are close for me. Actually, yeah, can I switch it? I just realize the mistake I made. I'm going to go AFC North. Yeah, that's the one I would have went. Yeah, so Cincinnati, they have the tied for the highest Vegas win total with the chiefs at 11.5. All the teams in this division, like the NFC,

East are competitive. They're trying to win. I think the Browns are due for a better season than last year. I think they probably get the 10 wins, or at least there's a good chance. There's a pathway to get to 10 wins. Pittsburgh, another team that's probably underrated at this point in the offseason, I think there's a pathway for them to get the 10 wins. Not saying it's likely, but there's a pathway for it to happen. Then the Ravens are another team who's pretty much widely considered to be upgraded. Lamar Jackson is healthy. He's under contract. Good pass catchers. defense, we'll see how that goes at the secondary, but I think all four of these teams are legitimate playoff contenders. So I think this is another situation. You might be able to get

the 40 wins between these four teams, which would be insane. Yeah, they're, I mean, pre last year, this was like a very common division with three teams making the playoffs, never the Browns before, but now the Browns should be in contention this year if the Deshawn Watson trade pays off for them. But yeah, this is the same argument as the NFCs. Like three teams could easily make the playoffs from this division. I actually think Kenny Pickett impressed me in the second half of the year

more than I thought he would. A lot of his numbers got better in the second half of the year. I don't trust Matt Canada to make a creative fun offense. for them, but I do think Pickett improved. I think they have one of the better wide receiver duos in the league with Deontai Johnson and George Pickens, if they just can use them correctly. Alan Robinson, bro. Yeah, Alan Robinson is there.

Pat for Armuth is the true best third option there. Najee Harris continues to get slept on. I just don't understand it. I saw a tweet this morning that said, Naji Harris is basically uglier David Montgomery. And I just don't understand. Oh, yeah, from Debrough. Yes, that's who I couldn't remember who I saw him from.

Yeah, Dbrough is the, he's the, what is he, the unicorn chaser. So like he's obsessed with the backup there. I can't remember his name. Jalen Warren. He does not like Nage. We, him and I debate about this all time because he was just texting me last night asking me for startup advice. And I,

multiple picks, I told him to take Naja Harris and he just would not do it. Former first round pick has a broken foot and everybody, that's it. Everybody's like, no, he, he is just bad. He's just not a good running back. Just basically crush the league the past two years and mistackles force per touch. I don't get it. I just don't understand it. Yeah, for sure.

Yeah, so I think the Steelers have all the offensive pieces, and they've got the, I don't know, what is, what defensive player of the year rank is T.J. Watt in the league, probably top two. But it's Bosa and Watt, is it not? Bosa Waddonald. Yeah, Donald. Yeah. That's why I was like, do I put him above Bosa? Yeah. So it's top two-ish, top three-ish defensive player in the league.

I mean, you're not going to get much better than that. The Ravens have been good every year that Lamar Jackson has been, after his first year, have been good since then. Like, he's going to win them games. A new offense will hopefully finally put them over the top for their sake. What do you think the Brown's floor is? Could it be as bad as we've seen the Browns be in the past? Or do you think there is some level of floor there?

This isn't like groundbreaking analysis here, but it really depends on Deshawn Watson. Right. If we get the Deshawn we saw last year, the floor is probably pretty low, actually. Their defense is really good, and they get a good run game. So it's like they probably will be competitive until the last, you know, five, six weeks of the season. Worst case scenario. So, I mean, they could probably get the six, seven wins is probably their floor. Just because defense and run game, you know, they'll beat, they should beat up on bad teams, is what I'm saying.

thinking. But in high pressure situations against good teams, Deshawn has to be better this year for them to hit their ceiling, obviously. And then the divisions, they get the AFC South and the NFC West, which is two of the easier divisions to play. So even the Bengals, like, despite them having a first place schedule, they're going to get a ton of teams that they should easily beat. All right. Bengals from this record is actually a pretty good bet because I still think it pays favorable blods right now. Yeah, that would not surprise me at all. All right. That was definitely who I wanted now. I think it is very tight between these next two. I agree. I'm going to go, I'm going to go with the AFC East.

Passing on the Chiefs does not feel good. But I think like the Chiefs are like kind of not a super, they don't win a ton of regular season games for whatever reason at least not i mean they do but not at the same level the bills and the we've seen the bengals win because i'm homes is like only hosted one aFC championship game which is like crazy to think about in his career um so i'll take the bills who are probably a lock for 10 wins the problem is the bills have routinely beat up on their own division for the for the past few years and i think that that that that that that that that door is definitely closed for them. I think Miami with a healthy Tua is a pretty good team. I mean, they were leading the division for the first five or six weeks last year. I think New England

will be exponentially better with an actual offensive coordinator. I don't think that can be understated enough. And the Jets will be substantially better with a functional quarterback. I mean, Rogers could be what what percent of Rogers talent has the Jets QB in room last year like what if you get Rogers at 35 percent is that still better than the Jets QV yeah probably if you can get Rogers to functionally check it down on every snap that's better than what they were getting last year right yeah so all of these teams are going for the playoffs all of them will be fighting to win. Two of them have like noticeable improvements on what major changes be. Similar how we saw the doffins with Mike McDaniel and Tyree Kill coming like just totally changed the way the team worked.

I think the Jets and the Patriots could have the same effect. Yeah, I was probably going to go to this division too. This is another one where I think all four teams are competing. They all want the playoffs and they all have pathways to get there. I do think the Patriots are going to be much, much better this year. Passing the ball might be tricky still for them, but they do have a legit offensive coordinator now, so I think that's really going to help them, as you stated. And then if Tua can stay healthy, the dolphins should be pretty darn good, too. That roster is really, really, really talented.

Obviously, in offense, they got a ton of pass catchers that are really good. And then defensively, they kind of made a pretty giant leap last year towards the end of the year with Jalen Phillips really developing as a peer pass rusher. So obviously their secondary is good as well. But I definitely like the AFC East there, which leaves me with probably the division I was going to go with first over or second overall. And that's the AFC West. Yeah, there's a big tier drop here. They're the only obvious choice here.

Yeah. You know, the chiefs, you said that they don't all win a ton of games. I will say while they haven't had like a spike season, they were, they won 14. games last year. Yeah, I know. They won 12 games in six of the last seven years. And they've only missed the playoffs in one year that Andy Reid was there. That was his second year.

And yeah, so I mean, they're, yeah, they might not have a 15 win season or something crazy like that, but I think they're a pretty safe bet to be right at the top of the league again. So that's nice. And then the Chargers, gosh, how we feel about that? Chargers. I feel like with Kellan Moore there, they definitely should be a, I mean, they were a playoff team last year, but they should take a step forward, right? I'm not even the biggest Kellynne Moore fan, but he will be, yeah, it's another just like addition by subtraction thing, just not having Herbert checked down over and over with one of the lowest A-Dots in the league,

despite having one of the best deep throwers in the league. There's not many I'd want more than him, throwing down the field, and he just was never asked to do it last. here. Yep. So I mean, I think this is a big year for Herbert in general. Like the hype eventually, or the play on the field eventually has to match the hype. And this would be the year for him to do it. So I think, you know, if I had to bet, I would say he comes out on top of that. And he, he establishes himself as one of the best QBs in the league. Chargers win, 10 plus games, make the playoffs, yada, yada, yada. The other team here, the Broncos are a team that's, they're going to try to compete. They got an old veteran quarterback that's getting a lot of money. They're definitely not

tanking. Brandon Browning is healthy. Defense is looking good. Just really about that offense. Can they fix what was so messed up last year on offense? And obviously they brought in Sean Peyton to help with that. I think that could write the ship. I think as a three though, they're really strong. Like I'm counting on them to get me the third most wins in this division. That's really strong. There's a pathway for them to make the playoffs. Unlikely, but there's a way that they can do. it. The concerning team in this division is the Raiders. This is the first real, you know, of all the divisions we've drafted so far, this is the first real question mark where it's like, ugh, just don't really, I don't even think you can count on a floor for them. Like, at least with

Washington and the NSCE East, you're like, yeah, they're competitive. They play good defense. They're a really well-coached team. Like, floor is probably seven, eight wins. Yeah. Raiders is like, dude, I said to you a couple weeks ago, like, we got to start taking over underbets on when McDaniels is gone. Like I said Thanksgiving earlier. Like I think maybe he's fired by Thanksgiving. That would imply they're going, they're coming out of Thanksgiving weekend with two,

three wins. And I think that's realistic. So that scares me a little bit here. I think this is the first team we have that really probably won't get to six wins. I know like their Vegas land six and a half. I just don't see how that's like this should be five and a half to me. Yeah, it definitely feels strong for them.

They do. they don't have the toughest schedule outside of their division they're playing teams like minnesota new york both new york teams uh steelers line the nfc north the the the colts uh so it's not that's got to be what's keeping them afloat their win total float is their yeah their strength of schedule is not the hardest but yeah they they they i mean they think they can win right Yeah. They're trying to win a Super Bowl this year. So they're definitely going to try.

I just don't know how they are, because they're going to lose both times to the Chiefs. I hope they lose both times to the Chargers. They might split with Denver maybe. I mean, if Russ just returns to a little bit more like what we've seen from him, the Broncos are going to be exponentially better. they are definitely the first team we've drafted that legitimately could finish with three wins or something like that.

Yep. All right. All right, so that was definitely a big tier drop for me. I think this is another tier here between two divisions. Man, I'm going to go with the, I'm going to go with the NFC West. Dang you. I thought I was finally going to catch a break here.

I don't feel good about this because you're taking on the Cardinals. And that might just be a, that might be a zero. It might be, but there's enough else here, though, that make you, you know, to make you be excited about this division. Yeah. So, I mean, even- The 90s might win the most games in the league. Yeah, that's, that's, yeah, you're hoping for 10 wins from the, from the Niners, although like, we're both not the biggest Brock Purdy fans.

Like, there's a world where, I mean, we've seen Shanhan put together functional teams with other bad quarterback, so maybe he can do it again. But there's also a world where Brock Purdy clearly shows that he's an undrafted, you know, QB and is not good. The Seahawks are definitely trying to win, but again, Gino could regress to kind of what we saw him be. There's definitely a floor there, though. Like, I don't see the Seahawks losing or winning less than like seven games. Vegas doesn't really like the Seahawks, which is weird.

I'm seeing nine wins. I've seen nine at Caesars, but I'm seeing eight and a half at Fandul, eight and a half at points, but eight and a half at Draft Kings. Yeah, they're definitely baking in some regrettings. in there, it feels like. Maybe they don't trust Gino. Yeah, which I guess is definitely fair. I mean, this guy was not good for a while. And then the Rams, they are absolute garbage on defense minus Aaron Donald.

I'm kind of just betting on McVeigh wouldn't have come back if he didn't want to try to win again. Like he's already contemplated retirement enough. He was only coming back if Stafford was coming back. All reports are Stafford is healthy. If that is true, I think six and a half win total that I'm seeing at Vegas is low for them. I agree with that. Yeah, just because they're Stafford plus Cup plus the rest of the role players on offense

is going to be enough for them to win some games here and there. It might come at the expense of the Cardinals and teams like that, but they're going to win, they're going to win seven games, I feel like. But yeah, the Cardinals, well, you know, the Cardinals, all reports are that, like, they're still in on Kyler. Like, they are not, like, we are tanking for Caleb Williams. They are standing behind Kyler. I'm a big fan of Kyler. I think he's just gotten a bad, a raw deal with previous coaching.

If he comes back by week 10, 13-ish, that range, and they can pull out, you know, maybe they win one or two without him. and if they can get me to, if they can get me to their win total of five wins and maybe I get to six or seven somehow, that would be awesome. Yeah. I agree with that. It's tough though.

That is a tough situation. I mean, Kyler could even come back before that. It sounds like he's not all too far off from playing. The question is like, if you're going into week seven and they're at zero wins, like why even why risk him you know like why well he has a lot to gain he has a lot to lose by not playing really well if is this contract not guaranteed i guess that's true i guess the perception of him

would be that they are not behind him so he's got to yeah either they've got to tell him like this is not because we want to tank to get a you know get caleb williams or whatever qb is early in the draft next year so they're going to have to really really sell him on that piece because he at least from his perspective i imagine he wants to go out and show that all the past few years were not his fault i'm you know i'm as good as i you know my draft capital says i was back when i was drafted i can be the awesome qb people thought i would be a few years ago yeah that's fair all right i'm going to go so i'm torn between two divisions here i was looking at the NFC north and the NFC South.

Oh, come on. This should be easy. I'm going to go with the NFC North. Yeah, it's got to be the NFC North. It's a situation where I think all four teams are going to be, try to be competitive this year. Whether the Bears can actually compete remains to be seen and we'll hit them in a second. But I think at the top you've got the lions.

I think they're pretty close to a lock of their over of nine and a half. I think they get the 10-11 wins relatively easily. They have a pretty favorable schedule as well, especially early on. Beyond that, though, I mean, I have been calling for the Vikings to regress, and I think that is still true. I think they do regress, but I think the Packers are probably better than they were last year. I think Aaron Rogers is pretty checked out. Their past-catching situation is so much better going into the season,

obviously with Watson and Dubs having a year more under their belt, getting Randall Cobb off the field is a big win for them because he's a net loss at this point. The ad, Jaden Reed, Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, of the mix. And I know Musgrave and Kraft are rookie tight ends, but these guys are both athletic freaks. And I think if they're going to offer you something in the past game, it could easily happen as a rookie for them because they're both just juicy. Their secondary is still good and their pass rush is insane. So, oh, not to mention great offensive line. we've seen this before with the Packers where

you know they do the QB swap and everything kind of works out and I know Jordan Love didn't quite have the pedigree of Aaron Rogers but he still was a first round pick he's got what four years of experience under his belt obviously having not played a lot but I mean he's going into his fifth year like this is a really kind of an ideal passing of the torch situation to be honest I've been grooming this kid for a while

and he's got a really good supporting cast so I think they probably outperform their seven and a half Vegas win total while maybe the Vikings underperform there's a little bit but either way I still think I'm getting a solid you know eightish wins from both teams there and the Bears their Vegas line is absurd to me it's at seven and a half right now I don't see how they get to that that's all right so that's probably the first team we've mentioned we think is lower than um yeah I'm no yeah that's probably it's got to be the and just the division that they're in not being the strongest. I mean, because all of these, none of these teams are more than,

the lions are leading the division at nine and a half. And the low is seven and a half. So clearly this is Vegas. I think this is unnecessary Justin Field type is what this is. Like, why are the Packers and the Bears have the same win total in Vegas? Go compare their rosters side by side. Yeah, the defense for, I mean, the defense alone for the two teams is, I mean, Packers have a legit.

Yeah, and offensive line. Bears, obviously, they improve their offensive line a little bit, but like the Packers have a really good offensive line and a really good defense. Like, you just, you need Jordan Love not to crap the bed and they walk to more wins than the Bears. Yeah, so they play the, this division, this whole division plays the NFC South, so that's helping them. But then they get the AFC West. So that, other than, like we talked about, other than the Raiders, that's not a layup division. No. Yeah, I think the Bears are going to.

struggle. I mean, I'm not saying they can't get to seven and a half, but that just seems crazy that they have the same line as the Packers. Yeah, you're right. If I was betting these teams head to head, I'd bet Packers over Bears. Because there's no way, I mean, Jordan, Justin Field did some magical things, mostly with his legs. And he showed improvement as a passer for sure as well, though. But Jordan Love is not going to be a worse thrower of the football than Fields. I don't think. there's no no planet that happens this year anyways yeah fields would have to take a gigantic leap right and i know we you know i've even been guilty of talking about the allen and

hertz thing with them and lamar even they bring in dj you bring in the star receiver yeah yeah the starting point for fields is already lower like hertz was never a bad thrower of the football like he was accurate in college very yeah it was accurate it's more processing yeah it was exactly It's processing. Fields has both issues going on right now. Yeah. Where it's accuracy and processing. So he would have to take like a crazy ridiculously. Even if he got to 2021 Hertz, I'm not sure that's enough to get them to seven and a half.

Yeah, because well, it might not with the rest of the roster. Yeah, exactly. Like the Eagles were loaded. They were loaded everywhere else. I was going to say they made the playoffs. The playoffs that year. So yeah, I just, I don't see, I don't see the love here for for the bears. But anyways, I feel good about getting this division with my third pick.

Do you, if you were starting a team from a franchise from scratch right now, you had to accept all existing contracts and ever age of players, everything. Is there a receiving core wide receivers and tight ends that you'd rather have than the Packers? Oh, this is a good question. This is a very good question. I think the Vikings. contracts age. I think the Vikings maybe.

The Bengals are out because their contracts are about to be a nightmare. So the Vikings, they're going to have to pay Hawkinson and Jefferson in the same year. Is Jefferson not? Yeah, he's not paid yet, is he? No, he's not paid yet. But I do like Jefferson, Addison, and Hawkinson in a vacuum is nice. That's really juicy.

I'm trying to think of another situation. Philly maybe, but once you pay Smith, because Goddard and, AJ Brown are paid already. I don't know. I don't think that it might not be an obvious one. I think there is a legitimate. No way. I mean, I guess if you took Burrow off,

it's just going to be a nightmare for them. They can't, they can't keep all three. I would get rid of Boyd in a second. No, no, not, they can't keep Burrow Higgins and Chase. There's no way they're going to be able to pay all three of them and put a functional refactoring QB into this or just.

No, that's what, that's what I said. I guess if you are factoring. As catchers, I still love the idea of Chase Higgins and whatever. But yeah, I mean, to your point, Packers are in a phenomenal situation, especially if Watson continues to get better, you know? Yeah, they're a real wild card because he's a game right here.

Did they have? Apparently, he had Jaden Reed as a sub-4-4-4 guy. I know he ran like 4-4-3 or something at the combine, but they have him as a sub-4-4-guy. Now, we saw at the Senior Bowl. He's fast. So it's not, it's not like super surprising. But it is weird that in the day of the,

the official times, we still are doing our own timing. It doesn't make sense at all. And like there is like people think that the combine laser time scores are infallible. They are actually. They're still manually started. Right. So there's no.

There's no. And we're talking fractions of a second. There's, which is just impossible to be 100% accurate. Exactly. But anyways, yeah, I mean, you make a great point though. Paggers are set up pretty well for the future. Yeah, they have pretty massive upside with very little risk because none of like all these guys are cheap and, and whatever.

And they could just continue to replace them. Dude, this is what they've been doing for over a decade though. Yeah. They don't draft receivers in the first round. They draft them in the second round. Yep. Jordy, Cobb, Devante, now Watson, now, now, Jaden Reed, and then you mix

on the tight ends in there, and this is what they do. They're like the Steelers in a lot of ways. They draft really well at receiver, and they develop these guys. It is so weird that those two teams just like continue to do it over and over and over again, and no other teams seem to be able to.

It's just those two. Yeah. Yeah, obviously, I mean, it's true, like, I feel like there's certain positions I scout better than others, you know? Now, the development thing is a whole nother, part of the equation, but like as far as identifying, you know, guys with potential and value at the position, like, it makes sense that you'd have positions you're better at, though.

Sure. Yeah. Just weird, none of that brain trust would ever leak out across the league or anything. True. But I guess then if even if it does, that just means other guys are now getting boosted up higher because you're like, oh, I know the Packers or the Steelers will take this guy in the second. We've got to take him in the first. True.

And so on. Which then just leads to the Packers and Steelering. covering more gems that they they knew about. All right. So only two divisions left, so I'm really making the final pick for both of us. I'm going to go with the NFC South. And I can't believe it's because of the team that I'm going to say it is. I think it's because of the Falcons.

I think the Falcons are going to win more games. than people think they are. Wow. I... Vegas agrees with you, by the way. Yeah, I'm seeing eight wins. The Saints are the favorite in the division, which I also like Derek Carr,

so that's another bonus here. But I think between those two teams, I'll be able to get enough out of it. The problem with the AFC South is outside of Jacksonville, who I definitely like, I kind of like Tennessee, too. but I'm going to stick with the NFC South. I'm not a Ritter fan.

I don't think he's awesome, but I do think he has a certain floor that Marriota just was not giving them last year at all. Marriota was one of the worst quarterback plays I've ever seen last year. There's a reason they hit historic lows in past attempts per games, and it was because of Marietta.

Their play count immediately went up when Ritter came in. I'm not saying he's going to, lift them to new heights, but he's going to make them a more functional offense. And they added a ton of key pieces to Jesse Bates on defense. They added a couple good offensive linemen with Chris Lindstrom. They're a team that's trying to win and thinks they can win with Ritter at QB. Yeah, the fact that they're going to be trying to compete is a good sign. I do think Arthur Smith is really relying heavily on recreating

what Vrable had with the Titans, you know, just as recent as a year ago, where it's like, we're going to pound your face in with the run game and we're going to play good assignment sound defense. That combination still works to hit a good floor. You know, your ceiling's pretty capped, but I do agree with you.

Like, if you had to throw a dart at a team of these last two divisions, the surprise, the Falcons would probably be one of them. And like I said, Vegas agrees with you. I'm seeing eight and a half wins on three different sports. sports books. So that implies they think they're a potential playoff team. So that's stronger. Then the Saints, I think being the favorite makes sense. Even the bucks, like the bucks have a decent roster surrounding their QB if Baker can be functional, which we kind of saw him do at times

with the Rams last year. The rams, the roster he was playing with with the Rams is probably 10 times worse than the roster he's going to be playing with the bucks. Yes. because it was Cooper Cup was gone. I mean, he was thrown to Van Jefferson and Ben Scowernick for the most part with the Rams. Now he's going to throw to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They have a solid defense around him. I'm not, the bucks are not going to be anything threatening for a Super Bowl or anything, but they might be better.

I think six and a half is a fair win total for them. Panthers is probably the one I don't feel the worst about. Not really, yeah, rookie QB. seven and a half feels strong for them whether i mean brace young is going to have to be pretty good right from the start for them to hit that um and yeah and the saints i like derrick car the saints have been competitive pretty much every year regardless of who's at qb for them um they always i mean they started last year very bad but then eeked out enough wins to be middling that's just kind of what they always are and they'll probably be that again um yeah so

that's what i'm going with Yeah, I think you're I think that was the right pick. I'm trying to think, yeah, I agree. I think the Panthers win total is kind of nuts, seven and a half with a rookie QB who is already going to have to be an outlier to be successful. So, like, I don't love the odds there.

Their defense was pretty good last year. It's getting better. They do have a strong run game. Well, we don't actually know if they will because it's a whole new regime. So, but they have some talent. So, but yeah, I think, I think they're a candidate to hit the under on there. Their win total there.

All right, that leaves us with the NFC South, the two South teams are the last two picks. I don't mind, you know, having this is the last pick. I think hitting the upside of Trevor Lawrence, you know, I look at it like I have two premier quarterbacks and Mahom. with AFC West and actually I have all the premier quarterbacks I have Burrough Mahomes Lawrence you've got the AFC favorite yeah yeah it's like if you know what what might decide this thing Chris is like who has the team that ends up with the most wins like what if one of these teams spikes for 15 wins like that's going to give us a

huge advantage and Jaguars aren't obviously likely to do that but they play in a horrible division and Lawrence Lawrence kind of had his coming out party last year he might elevate them to 12, 13 wins. You never know. So I like that. The rest of this division is tricky though. So unfortunately, I don't know. Like the Colts,

I probably like more than the Titans, at least for their potential to surprise people. Like, this is another one, not to just pound on the Bears. If you're a Bears fan listening, I'm sorry to do this to you. But the Colts win total is six and a half. They play in a much worse division than Chicago.

and again, go look at their roster head to head. Tell me where the bears are better than the Colts. You can't tell me a single spot. I was thinking even the Panthers, like two rookie QB. To me, they should have the same win total. Well, yeah, and just Richardson to Fields' comp is so crazy because like, you know, the chances of Richardson being as bad as Field was as a rookie are small, but even if he was, the roster is bad.

Or, I mean, it's way better than the Bears roster who's terrible. but they're better at pass-getcher, they're better on the offensive line. They're better at tight-end, significantly. I mean, they have one of the best tight-end rooms in the league. They have a really good run game with Jonathan Taylor.

Pass rush is there with Buckner and Quitty Pay and Samson-Ebacom, Deo Odea and Bingo. They have one of the best coverage linebackers in the league. They drafted a corner pretty high. Their secondary could be a little messy, but overall this team is so much better than the Bears and they have a lower win total. So I think the Colts could easily, I mean, shoot, we were talking, they were the favorite to win that division last year, weren't they?

And then Matt Ryan just kind of. They probably were. The Jaguars might have been close, but they probably were. I think it was Colts Titans, to be honest. I was going to say, actually, yeah, Titans might have. It had to have been tight between the three of them. Yeah. So anyways, Colts, I think, you know, there's no reason they shouldn't outperform the Bears, but.

And then the Titans, I know you said you feel pretty good about the Titans. I think their win total is about right, seven and a half. So then you've got to feel like there's a chance we see Levis this year, if you think that. No, because, well, I guess it depends. I haven't studied their schedule enough to know. But to see Levis, they'd have to be really, really bad early. You know, if they start, say, you know, two and three, three and four, four and five, anywhere close to 500 and they're they're like competitive all the way until

December I don't think you'll see Levis think you'll see Tanna Hill the whole way also Vrable just does not he doesn't mess around like that so I don't think we see Levin that's what yeah I know in like fantasy drafts tanahill's like he might be the last starting QV drafted and I just don't understand it like I I don't think we see Levis this year barring an injury to Tana Hill yeah and you're talking basketball yeah yeah just or season long that's yeah that's yeah I wouldn't be touching Levis. Yeah, so let's say they fall on the,

the oversight of seven and a half and land at eight wins. Like, that implies they'll be competitive all the way to December. There's no reason you should see Levis, if that's the scenario. So, and then if Rable's such a good coach, though, man, you just never know. He might get these guys to play. It's just the past catchers that worry me a ton.

They'll just randomly beat the Chiefs. What's that? They'll just like randomly beat the Chiefs one week. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. So, and then last of the Texans, I think the Texans are still really bad. I don't think they get the six and a half wins. They have a rookie quarterback.

The roster is pretty bare, and they still don't have any real defensive assets. They're definitely bad, but they're also definitely better than they were last year. Yeah, I think that's fair. How many games did they win last year? Three? Yeah, three, right? Because they gave the pick to the Bears. Yeah.

Yeah. So if they win five, six games, they're still, they're still coming in under their win total and they also still improved. And I actually think some of those wins were fluky though, right? Didn't they beat the Titans like week one or something? Or the Jags?

And they beat the Colts in week 18 on the Hail Mary. Yes, that's right. That was Lovey Smith's killing out party. Yeah. So they're really, I mean, they played like a one, two win team last year. So even if they get the four or five, I think that's improvement.

They've got some fun pieces though. like Damien Pierce at running back is fun. Their wide receivers are pretty bare with Nico Collins and John Mechie. So that's not great. But on defense, I mean, Singletary and Stingley, not Singletary, I'm thinking of the other running back, who played opposite him. Stevie Nelson last year were like pretty good, like much better than a lot of other teams. So they've got some pieces that are fun and potentially exciting.

And D'Amika Ryan's is just so much better than Lovie Smith coaching. That is true. They got Will Anderson, who could be the next, you know, Demiqo Ryan's freak on the D-Line. So I just think they're just too young. You know, too young, they still lack talent. They do have some, but I can't see them getting over their win total. I think they're probably one of the, they're picking in the top five next year again, for sure.

No, they're not Well, true Oh my God, the Cardinals are picking in the top five twice Yeah So looking at all these win total I'm actually a little surprised I've never like looked at all of them together in one list There's there's like not a lot of separation

As much as I thought there would be No, Vegas mids the crap out of this list Yeah, there is a lot of seven and a half And max 11 and a half teams With most of it being seven to nine and a half. Yep. Even like the premier teams, the chiefs and the Eagles and what's the Bengals,

like 11.5 is their total. Yeah. That's such a conservative play by Vegas. Because like that's worth betting the over on all those teams, I think. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, how many of these teams do you think like, so the Cardinals know they're winning anything this year.

Texans probably fall in that bucket as well. That might be the end of the list. Everybody else might be the Colts. The Bears, but. I bet you the Bears. That staff probably knows that you'd start winning. Right. They at least think they can compete or at least start winning.

I don't think the Colts. I don't think. But that's probably it. I don't think there are anybody else. The Raiders certainly think they can. It all depends how the season is. starts. Right. You know, if you get seven games into it and, you know, you're terrible and you're trying to think of a coach that wouldn't be on the hot seat, he's like, what do the Rams do if

they start terrible? You have to imagine McVeigh is like going to just check out. He's been so close to retiring. He basically has any TV job he could want when he's done if he wants to even continue working. Yeah. And Stafford, he's like, especially I know the whole thing, like, his wife was very outspoken with his health and everything. And you have to imagine that he is going to start. Not that, but the problem is like he strikes me as a guy that, like, wants to compete.

Like he's willing to put his body on the line, maybe to a fault. Yeah. So I don't see him backing down. So maybe that keeps McVeigh involved. and wanting to try to turn it around. Yeah. I wonder if Stafford would demand to trade like halfway through the year. You would need a scenario to play out where that would make sense.

Like maybe, God forbid, Josh Allen got hurt or something. And the bills. Yeah. Oh, boy. Oh, the bills. They could swing Stafford for like a third. You know, I mean, there'd have to be something like that. But yeah, yeah, that would be weird.

All right, we should get out of here. good idea for the topic today Chris good job on that hopefully Steve's not mad that we went ahead and did this without him I will offer my apologies when I talk to him but anyways thanks for listening we will I will not be here next week actually so you're probably going to get Chris and Steve or nothing one of the two but I won't be here data tool is launching though can we actually say the date I think we said it on the last one so I think you're okay no we said the the

internal disc or the subscriber released, didn't we? No, I'm pretty sure we said it on my last. Okay, well, the date is July 13th. So we're what, three days away? Three, no, you're way off your day. July 13th is like a week away. Yes. Why? I'm way on, I'm like, I need to recalibrate here. I'm way out of whack. Okay, we're like a week away from launch. Because it is July 13th, right? Yes. Okay. You'd be doubting myself. All right, data tool launch or it's actually the data suite the fantasy points data suite launch is july 13th that's going to be amazing there'll be a lot of content i'm sure surrounding that doing that so we'll see if we get a podcast next week or if we're just doing all kinds of stuff to show off that new product yep

whatever it is make sure you check it out all right i'm brett whitefield this is christopher we're out thanks for tuning in to this edition of the fantasy points podcast remember to subscribe rate and view on your favorite platform and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.