Fantasy Football Daily - Drafting Your Dynasty Teams For Upside | The Winning Strategy

Episode Date: May 29, 2024

Drafting for upside is one of the best ways to win your dynasty leagues. In this episode of Dynasty Points, Thomas Tipple and Ryan Heath dive into age-adjusted upside, giving you players to buy in on who are young and veterans.  Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us: http//twitter.com/ElNostraThomas http://twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath http://twitter.com/JakobSanderson FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts #fantasypoints #fantasyfootball #nfl #bestball #dynasty #dfs #nflbetting #FantasyFootballAdvice Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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What? Why are you shaking here? You're welcome. Ladies and gentlemen, change of plans. As you can tell, there's not three of us. There's two of us, but that's okay. Jacob had to go and do lawyer things and keep people out of jail, which we always respect. But no, no worries, no concerns here.

Because I, Thomas Dipple and Ryan Heath, joining me today, know Lucas as well on his honeymoon so shout out Lucas when we hear this on the flight back shout out to you hope you're having a great time we decided Ryan and I we are going to give you everything that you need to draft for upside we have been giving you players we like to draft players that we like at ADP we have been giving you trade targets players to trade away which Ryan and I are definitely going to discuss because with today's news look generally we're not a new show, but obviously the NICO news is something that is important to us, is it something that we touched on last week. And I am prepared to stand up for my stance. And I think the dynasty community

is already making my argument for me, which I love and appreciate. I, of course, am your host with the most time on his hands. I am Thomas Thippel. And my fun fact of the day is that we have crossed the 7K threshold for subscribers. on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel and we want nothing more than to continue and grow with all of you so shout out to you all I just wanted to point that out

you guys are great we have an amazing fan base and it's just continuously growing because that's my fun fact of the day hey yeah I as soon as I see it's just the two of us on the screen I'm like oh I have half the amount of time to think of a fun fact

my fun fact is that it is insanely hot in my apartment right now this is second podcast of the night i've blasted the AC for about 20 minutes in between uh you're welcome for not doing it during the podcast i don't want to do that to all your ears uh but yeah i guess that's my fun fact is you can just watch the sweat slowly form on my forehead the further we get into this show you're you're a better man than me because i would have been absolutely fun facting who i podcasted with uh considering who you went on the mic with i'm not sure you're sure if we're waiting for it to drop or not.

But for anyone listening, it's kind of a big deal. So I'm not going to make Ryan's face turn too red when discussing it. But it'll be something that everyone here is going to want to check out 100%. Of course, if you haven't already, you're going to want to hit the like button, hit the subscribe button, leave a comment on the video. It really helps us in that algorithm. Look, we have some links to other videos for you that we think relate to this in the comments. When you're done this, you can just click that.

on to the next one, leave a comment on that and so on and so forth. We love and appreciate every single one of you. Tons of questions. Now, today, we are going to try to hard out this at like an hour 10 because Ryan's a megastar and has another podcast to do. So if we don't get to all of the questions, we apologize, but we really think that the content being provided within this episode is going to help you take your startup to the next level and give you some ideas to work with within.

newer leagues with that being said ryan why don't we walk through the neco colin's news and why you are ready for your dms to blow up for me uh the minute it happened and and let's discuss what's going on here yeah so i mean anytime i get that notification of something happening in the nfl that i expected to happen that i argued on this very show was very likely to happen not even two weeks ago i know that Thomas is going to be in my DMs, absolutely coping about it. The spin is on. He's about to tell you that the dynasty community is going to steam Nico Collins up way too far in startup drafts off of this news.

Now that we know Collins is locked in with C.J. Stroud for what through 2027? So, I mean, that sounds pretty good to me. That sounds like a top 12 dynasty wide receiver to me. Look, Nico Collins, top five. in every rate stat we care about, yards per outrun, first downs per outrun, pretty much all of them. He is the most complete receiver on this Texan's team. He is not 170 pounds like Tankdell is. That's awesome.

He's where we want him to be in the wide receiver age curves, as opposed to Stefan Diggs, who is where we do not want him to be. I understand why people are going to have a preference for Nico Collins here. I will concede maybe he's not going to significantly outscore all of those other Texans wide receivers in redraft this year. But in terms of his long-term value, us being able to project him over the next four years for this type of production, I feel really good about that. I don't feel good at all about that with Stefan Diggs. And even with Tank Dell, I have some questions. So I am all about it.

I still clearly prefer Nico Collins in this wide receiver core. And Thomas is going to probably like make up an ADP or something to argue against that. So the floor is over to you. Make up an ADP. So if you haven't heard, it's three years, 72 million. I believe there's 52 million in guarantees. It's 17.4 or 17.3 guaranteed per year. I'll be very interested to see if this is a legitimate three-year extension or if it is a

two-year extension with some dead money, Fugazi contract type deal. I mean, Houston had the money to extend them. So I get extending him. My argument was not that they shouldn't extend them or it was more, I don't know if they will and maybe he won't. But what I do know is that I've already seen from very smart dynasty players, people across the industry already saying that Nico Collins is going to go from my wide receiver 16 or 17.

He's top 12 now. Well, he should have been top 12 already. Right? Like Ryan said, this was a predictable contract extension. He should have already been there. My argument is that we're moving somebody up. So then if you look at where he is right now, courtesy of Dynasty Data Lab,

we're sitting here and looking at Nico Collins wide receiver 18. That's obviously going to change now. 100%. He's going to go above Devontas Smith and Michael Pittman. I agree. Jalen Waddle, sure, won't have an argument. Roma Dunzei, sure, don't really have too much of an argument. Brandon Ayuk, sure.

This fourth round is going to change where instead of him going in the late four, he's probably going to go into the early four, which at the end of the day, I can't hate too much. This is where I'll disagree, though. If we're moving Nico so far up, like we're 100% he's the top dog, he's getting all that production, then for Tank Dell, who is wide receiver 22 in the fifth round,

are we moving him down now? Does he stay the same? And then why, for a player who I think scored eerily similar to Nico Collins in his rookie year in points per game and expected points per game, and they weren't too far apart in almost every major category

when they were healthy and played games at the same time on the same field, and then we expect some C.J. Stroud regression because we have to. His season was so unbelievable in the turnover and his insane efficiency to the point where Noah Brown was in some very much so profitable DFS lineups

multiple times last year before he had gotten hurt. And we add the current wide receiver 36 and Stefan Diggs who might be dust, sure. Does Joe Brady suck at, you know, targeting guys open and creating an offense? Sure. So there are two things there.

for that. He's also wide receiver 36. So my argument comes in if we are moving Niko that high. Now, wide receiver 18 to wide receiver 12 is a significant draft capital difference in terms of trading for a player. Because when people see that 12 or 13, they they clinch up in terms of wanting to let him go. They do. It's just how it operates, right? Look at Brandon Ayuk right now, who's never had a season like Nico Collins had last year, regardless of how we had to do it. And people latch on to Brandon Ayuk as the as the great hope so now you're putting Nico there my argument is if we expect this offense to be really good and the argument is that the offense can support multiple wide receivers and all the above then i personally would rather tear down and collect

the pluses that would come on top of a tank dell and even if the pluses are going to be so extreme that it's Nico Collins all the way down to wide receiver 36 currently and probably going to fall because of how the dynasty community reacts to contracts, Nico got paid. So even though Stefan Diggs situation hasn't changed at all, he'll probably fall a little bit for seemingly no reason. Why wouldn't you go and get maybe multiple firsts at this point with this kind of hot burning news to tear all the way down to Stefan Diggs? Because right now you can draft.

we talked about this on a previous show an insane amount of wide receivers and I expect Nico Collins to kind of regress to the Brandon Iuke and Jalen Waddle area I mean you can still go and get your DJ Moore Michael Pittman DK Metcalf

T. Higgins etc., etc. down that tier. If you're getting multiple firsts or something significant on top I can't not do that. I love Nico. But he alphaed out

when no one else was on the field, which we love, at a hyper-efficient rate from C.J. Stroud, in an offense that's going to get a second look now, there's just a lot there for projecting. But my biggest problem, even though Ryan's going to say that I made up ADP or that none of this is right. Before we hit the start button, right,

Ryan did say, I'll give you that in terms of the expected point. So I'm just, if he doesn't say it, I want to let everyone know that he did say that. I just think the pluses are too good to pass up for just tearing down to Chris Godwin or T. Higgins, who could very well get his own bag. And there's just so many options that moving them up for something that, like you said, was so predictable. That's my biggest issue. So if he stays at 18, smash. Like Hulk smash.

I'll just keep hammering him because I hate that I have to be the guy against Nico because I was defending Nico before. before it was cool, even in conversations with our fan here, and I've met him in person. He's a wonderful human Toronto, Dave. Him and I were going at, I was defending Nico before it was cool, like a hipster. I'm stealing D-Bro's job with my hipster reference every show. There has to be one. If we're steaming them up that far for a situation that should have been predicted and his stats didn't change, that's where I think the mistake is in a dynasty community. I'm not buying now, I'll tell you that much, unless there's somebody out there that thinks like I do.

but I'm not buying now. Like, this price is too high now. We've already jumped the shark minutes after it got signed. It just we immediately went and jumped the shark. So that's what it is. I don't think you're a bad player.

That might have been too long of a rant. We might have lost all of our listeners. But you can leave a comment below or leave a rate on the podcast wherever you're listening to tell me that I'm insane. Doesn't matter. Tell at Fantasy PTSD on X. Tell them to fire me. I don't know what it's going to be, but I just think he's about to become massively mispriced. But I will say I will draft him over every single one of the running backs that gets drafted,

not named Gibbs Hall or Bejohn at this point in startups anyway. I just think he was mispriced already. His price might correct now to be efficient. And that's fine. That's fair. You can say the buy windows closed. And look, I will all say it again, even though it's not. If I didn't say it when the mics were live, if I said it before, I could moonwalk away from that.

But no, I will give it to you live on air. Yes, these three Texans wide receivers should have fairly similar redraft projections this year. But this isn't a redraft show. This is a dynasty show. Yeah, but we can't say that Dell can't do what he did last year, even as a rookie, even though he's light, right? He's a little light on the weight, right? to think I've got about half a person, half of a tankdell on him, on my body.

He was still incredibly productive. Yeah, no, I weigh more than tank dell, of course. But my point isn't so much, can any of these Texans receivers succeed this year? I think all of them can. My athletic experiment I want to run right now is it's week one or week two. Let's think about what happens to the dynasty value of each of these Texans' wide receivers if they have a season ending injury in the first few weeks. Nico Collins, yeah, takes a short-term hit.

He's probably fine. He's locked into a long-term deal. He's the type of player where you can very confidently say, okay, when players get injured during the season and dynasty, they have a fall in value. It almost always comes back to about where it was beforehand. If this is a player whose role we feel confident in for the next few seasons sustaining. right if tank dell has a season ending injury this year he's injury prone and he's tiny and he can't stay healthy and nobody wants him and if stephan digs has a season ending injury this year he's old

he's washed he's done he's never coming back so the value insulation is what nico collins offers i understand if you're looking at your roster and you're saying yeah i want to take some lower cost swings at some weekly upside sure i'll take tank dell and the pl i'll take tank dell and the Plus totally understand that line of thinking. But if you want to build a dynasty roster that can weather some injuries where you're not going to be completely screwed if your plan you put together for 2024 doesn't perfectly work out and it very rarely does, then I understand why Nico Collins should be a top 12 dynasty wide receiver because he offers that long term safety.

And this is especially important in, like we say, know your league on this show all the time. If you're in a league that is not super liquid that doesn't have a bunch of Thomas Tipples in here that are trying to tear down to tank Dell and add a plus or whatever it is. And they just, if your leaguemates aren't going to be into tank Dell once he's injury prone, that that's something to consider is all I'm saying. Sure. Now, I will say that there's also another side of this too where if you are sitting there looking at a Drake London, Chris Oliva type player and you think, well, I'll just tear down. Now I'm tearing down the Nico Collins. So there is a part where I'm willing to just continue to do that. I want to get that out of the way so that when Nico Collins blows up again, people are like, no, you shit on him.

You don't get to like him. No, again, I do like him as a player. again, I want to make it very clear. You're saying exactly what I'm saying in terms of he was already mispriced so you were buying him at that price. But now I think the general consensus of him being moved up is where again, my problem therein lies and then the points were game to expect it.

I agree like three years. That's, I love that he's locked in. Three years is a long time in dynasty to be projecting ahead. O.C. can be gone. DJ Stroud can get hurt something like there's a lot of variables to deal with in Dynasty in three years that's why I always

believe there is no safety outside of like the top three at every position because I don't believe there is even in quarterbacks right you got uh we talk about this a lot Herbert was a top three four pick a couple years ago now he's in the second round right we talk about DAC being a 201

to a first round pick last year third round after putting up insane numbers etc etc. This just constantly. Yeah. No, I agree. I agree. But now we have CJ Stroud going at three, right?

Or Lamar Jackson was a late one, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Like there is no true safety in this game. So to project three years ahead is a little too much for me. But overall, I think we're going to end up in the same place. I think he belongs where he's about to go. But there's just other, like I would just rather get whatever I can. And when I say plus, people go, what do you mean by plus? second round picks two second round picks some running backs if you need the help extending your lineup adding liquidity where it's possible because i i think moving from guys like uh i think he has similar game breaking upside to like a jlin waddle who we talked about last week yeah oh i'm taking i'm taking water collins yeah okay that's interesting because waddle's wider c are 15 so that's like again that's also inefficient that's where i think uh the market is your

best friend because if that if that's what you're playing then like i do all i do is play the market people ask me how i play the game i just i all my trades i look at the market i structure everything around the market that's just how i take in fantasy and and that's how i'll uh view it but if i have the opportunity i'll say because again you just said waddle's um same if i can just tear to i yuk Waddle, Pitman, some of these other guys, I'm not going to need that much. Like you said, maybe something doesn't go right. Well, now you have more liquid assets.

And I will also say this. I also think that really active managers that are comfortable trading a lot should be applying the strategy, even in a startup. Because if you are not active enough and don't have the, I won't say wherewithal, but the trade stamina, if you would, to be active enough to make up for something like this, then I would just say take Collins and call it a day. And we're going to get into how to do drafts

because there was a question asked in the Discord that I really want to hit. So I think that sounds it up right. I think we both agree that he's probably going to be where I think he is, but it's moving him enough at a mass rate to affect the micro enough for me to tear out. And same with drafts. So I think you're right.

Your buy window has probably, shut your cell window has opened. And we always say there is no such thing as a buy low or a cell high that doesn't exist. But opening windows and closing windows does exist. So I think those are gone. This is your time to get off and get more liquidity, especially if you're holding on like a rebuilder, right? That's not totally ready to go.

If you just want to cash out and get a ton of high level assets, you can still do that as well. Also would be looking in if somebody has like one of them high tier running backs. that win you fantasy leagues, if you can just throw a Nico at him and add just a little bit to go and tear up to one of those high-end running backs, I would also use this opportunity to jump in and do that as well. Lots of different options. Didn't expect to go almost 20 minutes on Nico Collins,

but there we go. We did it. We're going to take our first break when we come back. We are going to talk about positional drafting of upside, some players that you are going to want to take, maybe some players that you are going to want to avoid. and how to apply Ryan Heath's view on drafting for upside when we come back after this break. Okay.

I am as excited for this as I was to hear the news of Angel Hernandez retiring. So now that I have one of the greatest things to ever happen in my life happen, if you're a baseball fan, you'll completely understand that. I'm ready to finally be taken to the next. level in my draft. See, Ryan, you and I have discussed at length. You play this game for maximum upside. And as much as I never wanted to admit it, I kind of play for safety across my roster. I always thought I was an upside guy. Then you showed up and completely changed my life and how I play fantasy and admitting that to myself. So let's talk about really what drafting

for upside is because a lot of people just assume it's drafting the most points. It is not. It is deeper than that. You wrote a phenomenal article about this. What is drafting for upside and how can people apply it? Yeah. So kind of the first thing you need to understand about fantasy football, this especially applies to redraft, but also to dynasty, is only a handful of players every single year actually make a material difference to your odds of winning a title. So your goal every single year, including in Dynasty, should be, I want to win a title. Or if you're a Rebuilder in Dynasty, it's I want to maximize my odds of winning a title in future seasons, right? It always comes back to, I want to finish first place in my league this year or at some point in the future.

And knowing that there were only six or seven players that really caused you to have to have a material increase in your title odds last year. So Christian McCaffrey was the biggest one. There were about five or six wide receivers, your CD lambs, your Pooka Nakuas, who also fell into this category. And then you have like kind of your next tier of running backs who ended up running really hot, like your Rahim Mstirts, your Travis E.TNs actually showed up just based on his early season performance.

and your Alvin Cameras. So those are just some names to throw at you from 2023. But you got to understand if you have two or three of those guys on your team, it almost doesn't matter what the rest of your roster looks like because very few other players are scoring very far above replacement every single week. So when you add all of that up into a 17 game season, it shouldn't be your goal to say, I want as many players on my roster who are going to average 14 fantasy points per game as I can possibly get.

And I don't want to miss on anybody. Your goal should be, I want as many possible shots at that 18 plus fantasy points per game player. Because as I said, even in Dynasty, there is a replacement level with these deep benches. you can probably get 10 to 11 fantasy points per game pretty easily into your flex spot if you need to, right? Almost no matter what happens to your team, unless it's like a real big tear-down rebuild where you're already not optimizing for this year. So yeah, that's kind of the thesis of drafting for upside is just maximize your chances of hitting on the handful of players that matter every single season. It is kind of similar in best fall as well, although downside and floor do matter much more in best fall. But yeah, just overall my approach to fantasy football is informed by that.

Yeah, it's important. Like you said, it's not just about scoring points. You still have to get to the end game, right? So a lot of the drafting for upside, a lot of people assume, well, it's just early. No, a lot of it is late. We want to be drafting for the most upside you can late. This is why I hammer ambiguous quarterbacks. This is why we always talk about hammering ambiguous sophomore or rookie running backs.

This is why Nico Collins was a great buy last year because John Metchy was the wide receiver going drafted ahead of both Collins and Tank Dell this time last year. It was John Metchy. So we could probably blame Scott Barrett for that for juicing him up every chance that he got. But you always want to buy the ambiguity. that's to me where the upside is. So with that, let's talk about some players you like when using this process. Let's give the people an opportunity to target these guys,

even though if you're in draft with us, this has already happened to me, where people just start taking them in front of me and it really hurts my feelings. So I need you guys to stop that. And let me have some of my favorite players. Please, we're going to do this a little bit position by position.

and really pan this out. There are a couple of guys that you like and a couple guys that you like to avoid. So let me ask you, Ryan Heath, the goat, which year one or year two running backs have undervalued breakout potential? I have one that I want to talk about.

So hopefully you don't hit him. Okay. Yeah, I'll play the game of whack-a-wall and hope I pick the guy that you know him. I can give you two. And I'll only, I'll only quickly, touch on the first one because he is going higher it's not like a super easy thing to get him in

a startup or to get people to trade him to you in dynasty or whatever but i would like to acquire devon a chan right now if i can is that who did i lose no no or i won wackamol right i hit the mole or no we're still playing whack and wool with with achin okay cool um so yeah devon a chan most efficient rookie season against his weighted opportunity of any running back over the past decade. rookie year, Alvin Camara was the only one who came close. If you've been around a while in the fantasy industry, you might remember after Alvin Camero's rookie year, the constant screaming from the Raptors from all the spreadsheet bros, from,

I can say this because I am a spreadsheet bro, the spreadsheet regression bros were constantly saying Alvin Camara just had unsustainable efficiency as a rookie. He didn't get really a full workload. He was super efficient on limited touches, but he is going to regress in terms of efficiency. He just can't score this many touchdowns. He can't continue breaking off this many big plays. And he's going to regress. And you're an idiot if you draft him at cost.

So it might sound a little bit familiar with everything I just said. As far as how people are feeling about Devon A. Chan this year, or at least a significant portion of the naysayers. Yes, Devon A. Chan, he did not command a lot of volume last year. He wasn't even the starting running back for most of the weeks that he entered with himself and most are healthy. But look, running backs who are as efficient as A. Chan was, as a rookie, who were drafted on day one or day two, almost always see an increase in workload in year two. This aligns with all of my age curves research from last off season. Year two running backs very frequently get more opportunity and break out.

And guess what? It's exactly what happened with Alvin Camara and it's what I expect to happen with Devon A. A.N. Yes, A.C.N. is the smallest and lightest. running back that we have seen kind of do this. So I understand we're in a little bit of uncharted territory, significantly lighter than Alvin Camara.

But he has been a track athlete his entire life, a very accomplished track athlete, just kind of looking down his results page. I know nothing about track and field, but it all looked pretty impressive to me. There were a lot of wins on the page that Scott Barrett linked to me. Thank you, Scott. So I'm assuming he was a pretty,

pretty good in track. And this offseason, he has been able to bulk up really for the first time. Is he on a scale now at the NFL combine? Do we know exactly how much he weighs and what his BMI is now? No. But look, if I can have any reason to dismiss the weight concern for the most efficient rookie running back of all time, I'm going to do that. I'm sorry.

So, yeah, give me Devon A. Chan in Dynasty. like R.B. 7 ADP or something like that. I will take him, let's see, over Jonathan Taylor. I want him. I certainly want him over Kairn Williams. I certainly want him over Travis E.T.N. I just named off three players who while... He's your four.

He's your four. Like really, when you take those names out, you've got Bejohn, Hall, Gibbs, and then there's McCaffrey and then A-Chance. He's either your four. five at this point. Yeah, no, he's a top five dynasty running back for me. Absolutely. Yeah. And, and yes, I understand Jonathan Taylor, Kairn Williams, those, and even Travis Eton for a little while, those are guys that have carried a really big workload at different points in their career.

But we have plenty of reason to think they, neither, that none of those three will do so this year. Kairn Williams already injured has competition from Blake Corum. Jonathan Taylor, had a really big workload as a sophomore, got injured, the cults didn't want to give him a big workload from that on. That was what we saw all of last year. I understand that they, it's kind of interesting with Taylor because they haven't invested at all in their R-A-2 position.

That's what I was going to say, yeah. Yeah. So if I'm capitulating towards any of those three, it is Taylor. He's probably my RB6. Don't, whatever you do, don't go on FantasyPoints.com and check my rankings against the things I say on the show, because that's super embarrassing if I say something that goes against what you don't want to Jacob. Yeah, you don't want to Jake up and have me call you a fraud for two minutes on the podcast.

Exactly. Yeah. So whatever you do, don't go do that and then comment it in the comments and call me out. Definitely, please do not do that. Yeah, definitely don't comment about Ryan being an absolute fraud in his rankings right now. in the video comments section. We definitely don't want that. Wouldn't want that at all.

No, terrible. So yeah, A-chan, clearly my draft for upside guy early in drafts. Aside from him, I want Taji Spears right now. He, for some reason, has a very similar ADP to Tony Pollard, who is several years older. Tony Pollard, on the complete other side of the Devon A. Chan Spectrum, just had one of the least efficient seasons against weighted opportunity that we've seen in the last decade. Top five, I believe, only really outdone by Josh Jacobs last year in terms of inefficiency. When a player that is getting older becomes incredibly inefficient, I get really worried.

And when he is sharing a backfield with a second year running back, who, as I said, have much higher breakout odds than any other age, I, really want to lean into Tajay Spears because I think there's a very good chance that Tony Pollard just kind of fails this year. And if that happens, then Spears benefits. We know they trust him in the passing game. He was, I believe the RB4, RB5 just in Target share last year. So, yeah, has the skill set that we look for in a fantasy running back. You can get him kind of in those weird mid-rowns of a startup where no one really wants to draft a running back anyway. So Spears is a priority target for me in all formats. Yeah, I find it interesting that over the last, over the last month, they pretty much go back

to back. You have Pollard, who as you laid out beautifully, it was horrendously inefficient. And you have Spears, two guys that have the similar workload, just one wasn't horrendously inefficient. And one is in that beautiful sophomore breakout spot. So from what I've seen, Spears has gone before Pollard, but for the most part, like you said, they are, they're careening around that 8 to 10 round mark, which you should already have your 5 to 7 wide receivers by then anyway. So unless you're a true sicko like me, here's the, here's the one thing I might counter you on for Pollard, something that was brought to my attention. Paul's first half and second half were completely different.

So Pollard was significantly better if he was not amazing, but he was significantly better as he was coming back from injury. So is that enough to dampen, to dampen the opinion or the stance or to kind of make you lean more 50-50 there? Should say Spears starts going two, three, four rounds. above Pollard? Would you come back down maybe to more Pollard? Would he become a don't touch zone?

Because, like I said, there are people that really do believe in that second half being different enough to really keep these guys even if you would. If there is a significant change based on Pollard's total lack of ability last year on the overall scale, just a testament to how fucking horrible his first half was. Is that enough for you to kind of, okay. I've had enough of this if there is like a significant jump up from Spears to Pollard? I mean, not really. Like, yes, I understand that Pollard himself was coming out after the season and saying, yeah, I wasn't feeling really like myself until like week 10 or week 11 or somewhere around

there. He still gave you almost nothing down the stretch of the season. He had like a really good November, like weeks 11 through 14. he was a top 12 running back in three out of four weeks. But I mean, was outside the top 30 weeks 15 through 17 in the playoffs. I think he just kind of hit some slightly better touchdown luck, but he was also losing red zone work as the year went on, which is not a great sign either.

Also, the Cowboys not resigning him is not a great sign for an older player. so as I laid out in my article about how free agency is a scam, which you can find on FanPoint.com. So yeah, I just have a lot of issues against Pollard built up. It's going to be pretty hard to change my stance on this one, I think. Okay, that's fair. I just had to ask in terms of what if Spears takes off does it kind of change how much you're willing to double down on it?

for me being the type of person I am, I mean, if we end up getting like a two round gap, that I'm going to take hashtag take whoever's cheaper. Because I can't help myself. I have a problem. And that's why you're here. That's why we work so well together because you're here to keep me grounded,

Ryan. And that's really important. For me, there's one player you, you did not win Wackamol. So there is a player that I actually like. that is still considerably cheap considering the offense is quite literally built for backs like him. Jaliel McLaughlin is somebody that I am very much into.

Look, it's always been the Somagie P line on this podcast. Jacob came up with the P line. We've stuck with the P line. That P line has moved. I don't know what kind of nickname we're going to get for the Jalil line. but I have been anti-Javante Williams well look if you missed the massive rant

I had against Jacob on this topic you can find that video you can go and watch that episode where we discussed him I was out on him at RB 15 prices I am still out on him at his current price which has started to decline all the way to RB21 there's just other guys I prefer there

like Camara I mean Mondre There's just some other guys That I prefer in that range For a guy who is Hashtag slow Right yes he can make people

Some people miss And he can catch the ball well enough Doesn't do a lot with those receptions Which I think is important Jalil though Is a very interesting case Of Very explosive

Very athletic Definitely shined at points To the point He did not He had the same touchdown rate, all these running backs. Jamante Williams was really bad at the goal line last year, like to an embarrassing level. But the mistackles force per attempt, 0.29, really like that.

That's something that I definitely look at. He had half the carries, right? So obviously there's some work to do. Half the carries in a zone concept, I should say. The man gap concept was completely leaned, obviously more to one side than the other. but he is a type of player that is incredibly explosive and what I really like from him as I pull up the next part of my discussion because I'm a professional he can catch passes

he had only two fewer target uh sorry that was Samaji P Ryan had only two fewer targets I am expecting somebody like Jalil to get on the field more than Samajai P Ryan right if you are heading into your second season you'll look at at a player like Samajé who has definitely been aging, definitely less efficient. Jaliel to break out, he's going to have to eat into P. Ryan's touches, and I think he will. Jalilil, who did not start off the year as a massive target or massive producer in the offense, still ended up with 36 targets, which I think is pretty good. He had 31 receptions.

He had a high design play rate. He had a high yards per target. He had a pretty high yards per outrun. second only to Somage P-Rine. Obviously, there's a little bit of projection here in terms of needing to beat out a veteran NFL running back, which is not easy. He is the most athletic running back on that offense. I do not think it is at all close because it's an offense that is designed to check it down to running backs at an alarming rate. Now they have a rookie quarterback.

This is a Sean Payton offense. if there's somebody in that offense that I think can truly break out of the position, I don't think it's Giovante sand some touchdown magic. And considering Jalil is RB 65, if you tell me that you can't afford him,

man, that says something to me. Brian Ford estimate is P. Rine. P. Ryan is going to get cut. Again, I also think that he's going to get cut. I just don't think that Estime and Watson are it in terms of that offense. I think Jalil is still the most explosive player within that offense.

And he's definitely one of the cheapest in that offense. I know people like Watson. He's like a nice, fun post-rooky waiver ad, right? He's kind of like a Cody Schrader in terms of like where people are taking him. He's another fine bet. It's true. But in terms of a good pass catcher who is insanely explosive, in this offense for for check down roles oh yeah i love it i love it uh i love it again rb 65 so it's not like not exactly

like i'm i'm really reaching too too far here to get him but um i really like what your thoughts on jale yeah i i love it too i wrote him up earlier this off season uh based on him being yes top five in missed tackles force per touch uh super explosive player a guy that you You can, okay, so you can find an unhinged Sean Payton quote for almost anybody on the roster. So I'm not saying this necessarily holds that much weight. And he has called so many players like his Joker that he wants them to play the Joker role throughout his entire coaching career. And it's been awesome for like three of them. But late last year, he was hyping up Jaliel a ton in the media saying that he could play

the Joker role next year. And there is, as you said, there is real upside in this backfield, especially from a past catching perspective. I remember Jacob made fun of me on the draft live stream for this stat. But in the final four minutes of each half, Samaji P. Ryan, I think was top two in target share just within those minutes of every NFL game. So, yeah, the Broncos throw to running backs a ton. We should expect that to continue this year.

McLaughlin hadn't caught a ton of passes in college, but it seems like they like him in that role. He certainly has a chance to win it. And I can see a world where that is a usable fantasy asset. And yeah, it is, look, is Joliel McLaughlin ever going to be, oh, he's on 30% of championship and playoff rosters? No. But in terms of a player that can help you for free,

I yeah, I'll take that. Absolutely. Right. Nope. I agree. Whisper that. I love this from Meatwad. What a name.

I whisper that sweet Jalil propaganda into my ear. Well, I won't whisper, but I will tell you that I really, I love that name. That's one of my favorites. JJFN says Bo Nex was Captain Checkdown as well. Right. He does still have to pass P-Ryme, but like Brian mentioned, P-Rine's likely a cut candidate for me. if he does stay on that roster,

it's going to change this opinion to me, like 100%. But at the same time, he should be able to get past the Majet P line. JJ Fentz, I don't listen to coaches at all. You should be going and watching the coach speak index because that dude cuts through the bullshit

that coaches like to, to, you know, put out in the world. He really cuts through it, cuts to the brass tagas. We're going to take one more break when we come back. We're going to hit wide receivers.

There's not a lot. about tight ends because I don't want to argue about Sam LaPorteur for another seven and a half hours. So we're not going to do too much on tight ends, but we are going to hit some wide receivers. And then at the end of this all, we're going to get some players to avoid as we talk through the question if we can get to it. If not, that is a great question for next week, Brian. So sit tight when we come back. We're going to do wide receivers and tight ends.

Okay, here we go. Let's talk about more wide receivers. I feel like you and I have just been discussing wide receivers now for three or four weeks. but it is the most congested position in fantasy, right? Anywhere from wide receiver like 16 to 30 feels like it's pretty pretty tight in terms of expected production. So let's let's talk about it. Wide receivers, which year two or year three wide receivers have undervalued breakout potential? Yeah.

So I mean, just looking at ADP, if we're going undervalued, I think the incredibly obvious one is Rashi Rice. So look, I understand we don't know what's going on with the legal stuff. Some of the charges got dropped. The whole camera in the nightclub thing got dropped, I believe. The league is still likely to discipline him. But look, Rashi Rice was a wide receiver one down the stretch last season. As soon as he was running over a 60% route share in that offense, he was a fantasy wide receiver one. he yes was in kind of that shorter low a dot role for a lot of the year he succeeded in it

top like top 10 in yards per outrun first downs for outrun all the nerdy stats looked amazing even when he was split out wide he was effective in all of those rate stats that just it's pretty hard to look at rashi rice's season as a rookie and poke very many holes in it and you add in that he plays with Patrick Mahomes. Yes, he might get suspended for six games, but look, let's be real. Andy Reid has never cared about character concerns on his team unless there's a video.

I don't want to get too controversial here tonight, but that's generally how things seem to go on the Chiefs. So I am all about buying up the Rashi Rice for the second round rookie pick type of prices. also love them in redraft this year. I think as far as undervalued year or two potential breakout wide receivers, he's got to be at the top of the list. I don't know.

I will say though, I think especially like in the bubble of the dynasty community and all the like hardcore Twitter sicko leagues, I do think there's a lot of younger like year two wide receivers who are kind of being steamed up just for the fact that they're year two wide receivers, I don't want to just say that that's because of me or give myself credit of that because that's absolutely not true. But it's weird when you write about something and you feel like you see that everyone else is thinking change on it at the same time.

But yeah, so for example, I don't see it with guys like Jordan Addison, like Zay Flowers, even Jaden Reed. I have serious questions about all of those guys's ability to take the next step in terms of being anywhere close to a fantasy wide receiver one. With Rashi Rice, we already saw it for a decent amount of time. I think just in terms of roles, he's not really threatened by Amars Keefe Brown or Xavier Worthy. I think the chiefs are likely to try to use both of those. those players in more like deep field stretching roles, that was kind of what they were lacking

last year. We can argue about how successful Xavier Worthy is going to be at that. But yeah, I think whenever Rice is on the field, he has that PPR scam type of role locked down. And even if he misses the first six weeks of the season, his dynasty value is going to completely recover by week eight. So it's hard for me to care that much. Right. We're talking about a guy average 16 points per game down the stretch.

Like as a rookie, that's pretty good. The more he got on the field, that offense started to go. And it was pretty obvious. I think you're right in the, we can sit here and argue about worthy to where blue in the face. I'm still not 100% sure him being a bad deep bowl tracker

was on Quinn Ewers or on him. They were both kind of ass at their respected jobs in that regard. Last year in college and profiles and all that stuff. I'm not concerned about Markey's Brown. Same thing as you're saying. This is a guy that if he plays 17 games, I'm going to be seven feet tall. It just doesn't happen and probably never will happen. He does have some stretches, like you said, but I'm not entirely concerned about it in terms of skill set, et cetera.

I think this offense is going to be annoying, in my opinion. But I think you're right. I think he's, I drafted him at 7.3 in my most recent startup. So I'm still buying. there is a bit of a quote dip there um you'll be interesting i know brian he said am i too biased against the pickens hype i mean i don't think there's such a thing i mean any plays outside of egregious pass interference

or completely blown zone coverages and george pickin struggles so there is that uh as much as every single broadcaster that calls those games sit there and questions why they're not getting a bold of pickens the broadcasters are the worst for spreading pickings propaganda and i understand that there are people out there that think that Pickens has gotten an upgrade from quarterback to OC, you can polish a turd, you can wash a turd, but when you eat a turd, you're still eating a giant piece of shit. So keep that in mind.

Not that he's a piece of shit, but his fantasy productions, no bueno. I want to get that point out across. George, if you're watching, please don't stare at me like you did the TV on draft night. Like, just don't do that. That would make me uncomfortable. Incredibly uncomfortable. So let's get to the. second player that you had another offense that I think is going to be a little bit

annoying but this has been kind of one of the driving forces to my just give me who's cheaper this is kind of been the catalyst of that I was not high on him before listening to yourself you've absolutely absolutely absolutely clued me in on this guy so let's clue the rest of the people in yeah I can only assume you're talking about dantey and wicks So we'll go into the Dantabian Wicks stuff. So look, top 15 in first downs per outrun as a rookie, which is kind of unbelievable. I understand that he only ran over a 50% route share. Hey, I did see that one catch on prime time that George Pickens had.

That was a stick catch. Anyway, Dantavian Wicks, seven games last season with over a 50% route share. In those games, he averaged just over like 37 receiving yards per game, nine fantasy points per game. Sounds mediocre. That was better than Jackson Smith and Jigma last year. So is producing like a mediocre first round pick as a day three player in a admittedly part-time role that only became full-time when Christian Watson was off the field?

But look, yeah, that was some crazy guy that just went by outside my window. I'm sure you can do that. sane fast. Yeah. He's cruising. Yeah. That guy's having fun, I hope. Anyway, back to Don Tavian Wicks.

My thing with him is, look, a rookie wide receiver steps on the field, goes and wins on the outside, and produces first downs at a top 15 rate among all wide receivers. Better than Tank Dell, if you want some comparison. So I am into Don Tavian Wix as the cheapest option in this very confusing Packers receiving Corps. Do I think he just walks over and takes Romeo Dobbs' job? Not necessarily. Could Christian Watson pull another hamstring?

I absolutely hope not. I have even more Christian Watson and we'll have bigger Christian Watson bags this year probably. But if that happens, that's another potential path for Don Tavian. Wix to get on the field and continue just winning. Yeah. So all about Wix, I will say, compared to two months ago when the price was basically nothing, and now it is actually a second round rookie pick.

I'm a little less excited to go out and make that trade. I'd say it's become more efficient. It's the same thing with Nico Collins. Okay. I think he's a fake second. I think he's a fake second round pick evaluation because Malachi Corley, come on. I mean, Jermaine Burton, yeah, I mean, that's a serious question you have to ask yourself. But like, come on.

He should be going ahead of Quentin Johnston. He already had a better rookie year. Like, let's get that out of there. But I think you're right. I think he's kind of around that weird. Like, Luke, Luke, Luke, geez, I cannot talk today. Luke McCaffrey. That's a mouthful.

Michael Wilson going around him. Jaliel McMillan. I don't think he's full on second round pick value, especially in a startup. Acquiring him, you might get the guy that, that likes him a little more. But,

yeah, I mean, he's around that Roman Wilson territory. So you're right. I'm taking him over all those names very easily, other than Germain. So yeah, maybe that's my Twitter bubble take

where I've been having a hard time getting Wix from his 10 biggest fans. So, yeah. Okay, okay, fine. Go out and buy Don Tavian Wix.

There you go. Yeah. Yeah, we absolutely should be and make sure to sell them off to Ryan because he'll be really sad if you don't. So shadow, I just want to point out before we continue that the jokes about the motorcycle or car, whichever, have been absolutely peak. I don't have the chat up.

Meet mewad says there goes rush to your ice. Oh, no. Fantasy football factor says that was Romeo Dobbs on his way to the end zone outside of Ryan's window. for like the one time that might happen this year. Toronto Day said that was actually just Wix running by. So shout out. J.J.F.N. says that guy was listening to this podcast and heard the Pickens bit. He wasn't too happy.

Amazing. You guys are unrivaled in your in your comedic approach. That's so good. J.J.F.N. also says, Ryan, you are solely responsible for Wix Price going up. Stop telling me that. That big of like a head. I know I don't have this influence over the market that people try to convince me I do. There is no possible way that that's true.

I'm sorry. Also, everyone is hyping up Don Tavian Wicks. He has become. Yeah. I won't say, yeah, he really has. And it's not just like the stat nerds like me. It's the film people too, as I was just told on the previous podcast I was on, which I'm super hyping up and teasing right now.

I'm not going to say who it was or where it was or what was going on there. But yeah, at Twitter at Ryan J. underscore Heath. You'll see it tomorrow on your feed, probably. No, absolutely. I think there is one I'm avoiding and his name is Jaden Reed. I know, I said we're going to give some players to people who avoid his price being right beside Mike Evans and Stefan Diggs and Keon Coleman.

To me, I'm just, I'm willing to take the cheaper bet in an offense. It's probably going to be annoying. So there we go. There's a player that I am awaiting to. One more break. Then we're going to touch on a tight end or two. It's very hard to find them at this point.

And then we're going to try to answer this question. We've only got 14 minutes. We're going to try to get in and out with the tight ends. And then maybe tease the question for next week. Because Ryan, I don't know if you know this or not, but you're also coming back next week. So sit tight. Last break. And then we're going to finish strong here on Dynasty Points.

sit tight. So Ryan, I say on to you the same thing I've been saying for every position group here, except we haven't mentioned quarterbacks. Maybe instead of the last question, I'll get a quarterback or two that you think has that that upside potential. They don't have to be a rookie or sophomore. At the very specific, very specific point. But what tight end do you think has an undervalued breakout potential right now? Sure. So year two tight ends. just want to emphasize this are the biggest cheat code in fantasy football. When I did my study last year, literally 50% of elite tight ends break out specifically in year two. So this is always the like band of players I'm targeting at the tight end position.

This year it's a little harder because a lot of rookie tight ends already had really good rookie seasons last year. So it's very hard to, our options are limited, essentially. We don't have that many tight ends who showed us a little, but not enough that they're not a top five dynasty tight end right. So I'm going to go with Luke Musgrave. I would throw Tucker Kraft into this as well. For some of the same reasons as Dante v. and Wicks, there's not a clear number one wide receiver in this receiving core. I can close my eyes. imagine that Luke Musgrave is the number two target on this team this year. His yards per outrun as a rookie was fine.

He is highly athletic, which is very, very important for specifically only really tight ends. Ultra athleticism is very predictive of career fantasy points at the tight end position. I prefer Scott Barrett's spork metric, where Musgrave is like 90 of. percentile plus. So Mosgrave is my clear year-two tight-end target. I love that. Again, they're both so cheap. I think you're picking which one you like the most and running with it.

I think it's fine. I think we should all just be buying it. I mentioned Daniel Bellinger last week, and they tried to laugh me out of the room, Ryan. But Daniel Bellinger is also super free and that tight-end room is also very ambiguous. So something to look into, I will say another tight-end. is Noah Fant. He may not be a rookie or a sophomore,

but this team has moved to hopefully a more pass-friendly offense with who they brought in from Washington and an erode type offense. And depending on how you feel about JSN, in terms of tight ends that are hyper athletic, has the contracts. Like, they're locked in with him. He's also free at Titan 28 and round 18. He's also someone I'm taking a dart throw on.

He got that after arguing with the guys from South Harmon, who took me to school on Noah Fant, so I want to give them their flowers and shout them out as well. Let us kind of convince me on Noah Fant too in my mentions the other day when I was tweeting about Tidens. I feel super bad.

I don't remember who it was. It may have been Jared Smola. Someone laid out a really good argument for Noah Fant. And I basically what you just said. But yeah, I had also not really been woke to the Noah Fant thing before a couple days go yeah he he's someone that just has fatigue right like i've i felt the same way so you want to talk about drafting for upside that's one for me uh doesn't need a lot to have happen um to to have that

david and joku as breako we also love gino smith here so those two correlate really well let's talk about a quarterback that you're interested in that you think has untapped or undervalued uh potential right now in drafts that you think has a big upside possibility. It's really hard to say anybody aside from Will Levis, who we've discussed extensively extensively on this program. But yeah, I'll repeat it just for anyone that might not have caught the last several Dynasty Point shows, which is a big mistake. You should go back and watch them on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel.

Also make sure you're subscribed when you go to do that. But anyways, Will Levis, look, anytime a quarterback who we at least think can be a mobile player in the NFL, wasn't that much last year, but had it had the mobility in college could be unlocked with a new coaching staff this year, I get interested. Look, Jake Browning was like top eight in fantasy points per dropback last year. Like if we're bringing the Bengals offense to Tennessee, really any modern offense, but just specifically this one where the Titans are going out and investing in all of these past catchers, investing at tackle, really building up this offense around Levis.

And you tell me he's like the Dynasty QB 20. Yeah, I want that. sorry. It's really hard to find bets in a dynasty startup after like round six or round seven where you can really close your eyes and imagine that they're going to be a top two round startup pick next year. And a young quarterback is basically the clearest archetype for that to happen with. So I want Levis specifically in Dynasty.

I don't know if I have a redraft take on him yet, but I just the asymmetric upside for him and dynasty. No, I agree. I think those are fantastic points. You don't have to convince me on Will Levis. We have been early on Will Levis. It's going to make some people moaned and grown in our chat every time we talk about Will Levis, but you're right.

We've already seen some upside with him. I don't think you're doing yourself too much harm. He is the type of player that you can draft at his spot. and then draft Stafford just in case. Or you can draft that a spot and draft Gino just in case, et cetera, et cetera, and really kind of back yourself up and layer in that upside,

which in and of itself is setting yourself up for upside, like drafting for upside, like we've wanted to talk about and have been talking about on this program. See how that all ties in together? There's one more player that I want to talk about in terms of quarterback upside that I don't think is getting really enough taught. like we shit on him so much just because he's boring like he's Batman he's white bread he's

boring right there doesn't seem to be uh much flash to him but it's Derek Carr for me he's not a young guy uh like I said it's very hard to find quarterbacks that are rookies and sophomores that we don't already know about but it's Derek Carr for me who's still very cheap keep in mind he was hurt a lot last year this guy never doesn't like he just finishes as a mid to high QB2 most years. It's just year after year after year. Talk about a contract for his dead cap money. Like even through 2025,

they're out is in 2026 where he has almost a $29 million dead cap. They on a cash strap team, they need Carr on that team. Rattler is fine, but man, he's still just an uninspiring, I believe, what, fifth round pick. Keep in mind that in four point passing touchdown league,

car outplayed Trevor Lawrence in the fantasy playoffs last year. The upside is there. As your QB2, that's all you can ask for, 20 points, 25 points. Yes, he had 16 points a week 17, but then you look at week 18 if you're an absolute degenerate and play in week 18 championships, which we advise you not to do. But he put up 30 when he started to get healthy, when that offense started to get healthy with him, Alave, et cetera. He's free in terms of what starting value he,

can bring as your third QB on your roster. I don't think there's a reason for him to be QB 31 and Spencer Rattler to be QB 35. I don't think that adds up to me. So I'm going to, I'm going to be in at his price for sure as a QB2 to QB3 on your team. If you want to punt the position, there is upside there. 100%. Sorry, I'll just take any opportunity to make fun of Derek. car um but it's fine like he has he has a make funnable face he has a very punchable face um you know

the meme of him being angry on the sideline lives forever uh in my heart but he's just at a price like it just gets to a point where we can make fun of them all we want but if you're giving me kb 16 qb 15 qb 17 and his production year over year is not that far off from what you've been getting from lawrence but you're getting it 10 plus rounds cheaper. That's no-brainer territory to me. He might be more expensive outside of leagues, but yeah, and trust me.

Derek Carr is a reason to draft Kendrae Miller. We didn't talk about him in with the year two running backs, but Carr just absolutely loves checking the ball down. I posted a chart a couple of months ago, basically showing that most QBs who do a lot of checkdowns, it's because they hold the ball for a long time and the checkdown becomes the only option they have. Maybe if you're Justin Fields or you're Russell Wilson, you're scrambling around a bunch, you end up having a checkdown.

Nope. Derek Carr had a pretty fast time to throw, but also the fourth highest checkdown right in the league. So this man is excited to check the ball down to Alvin Camara. Anything happens to Camara. That's potentially a Kendra Miller year to breakout waiting to happen. Just wanted to spread that needle for a second. Yep, that was the whole point of today's show is talking about how to draft for upside and then drafting for upside and as much bonuses that we can get. This episode's not going to be an hour and a half.

We have a great question asked by Brian Ford about how to navigate your drafts for startups and when you start making some changes. We didn't get to that today. I apologize. Ryan's a superstar. He does have a hard out here in a couple of minutes. I'm going to try to speed up so you can get to the exits and outtros and everything hype. So next week we're going to hit that question. Hopefully the whole gang is back and answer your question for earlier.

Brian, yes, Lucas is on his honeymoon, still doing the rookie draft and making trades and said rookie draft because Dynasty points, we don't fuck around, we get the job done, we do what we have to do, and we try to do it in complete different ways. Ryan, quickly, where people find what you're doing coming up? Yep, you can find me on X at Ryan J underscore Heath. You can find all of my written content on FantasyPoint.com, currently writing the statistically significant series where I take you through all of the most important stats in the fantasy points data suite kind of break down what matters, what's predictive

for fantasy football in the following season. I just released a really big article about weighted opportunity for running backs. Coming up, hopefully, going to be diving into catchable targets for wide receivers, just to give you kind of an idea of what I'm working on. Yeah, statistically significant is. must must read I don't read a lot of fantasy articles

because I don't consume content the most efficiently that way but that is an article that I am I'm keeping tabs in all off season and you should be too it is truly phenomenal if you haven't already please go like and subscribe the video

subscribe if you haven't we love everyone for helping us get to the 7K mark we're marching to 10 that is the goal that we want to hit by the start of week one you got to get out of here you have a ton of great stuff.

My name is Thomas Tibble. You can find me at Elnoster Thomas. You can get into the Discord where you'll find me the most. Putting up exclusive content in there weekly. We're back next week. Again, like, subscribe, check in our loved ones. Even if you're not sure that they need it, remember that clear eyes and four hearts can never lose in your best days.

They're always spent tilting. Good night, everybody. What? What? What are you shaking your head? You're well. Welcome.