Fantasy Football Daily - Dynasty Fantasy Football trade Deadlines And How To Buy | Dynasty Points

Episode Date: November 20, 2024

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Well, and then there was one, one champion in the CFL landscape. That is the Canadian Football League. I sit here a proud supporter of my hometown Toronto Argonauts. Yes, the CFL even has merchandise like jerseys and hats. We are up to date. So shout out the 2024 Toronto Argonauts, your Grey Cup champions. That being said, I am your host, Thomas Tipple. Joining me is a sad loser and supporter.

of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, Jacob Sanderson, and someone completely oblivious to what I just said down below here is Ryan Heath. No Lucas Gilbert. Lucas is dealing with some personal things. We told him to take the night off. That happens. It's a long season and real life gets in the way. But have no fear because this wonderful trio is here to really ask a question that

is somewhat controversial. People have strong opinions on the topic of trade deadlines in Dynasty. We've kind of done this show every year for the last three or four years and there seems to be new developments, new conversations that come along with it.

So we're going to do that and stay away from revisionist history. I know that's something people like to do with, well, if you would have just traded it, had the opportunity to trade for player X, Y, and Z, you would have won 70% more of your leagues. That's not what this is about. This is just simply about having a legitimate discussion on trade deadlines because it's very important. It is coming up.

And a lot of people are going to be voting on this next year or when Dynasty League start. Because guess what? Dynasty leagues are getting drafted right now, a lot of them. Teams that are kind of out of it and are getting the itch. So here we go. It's relevant. let's dive right in and if you were to search the dynasty trade deadlines say on Twitter or somewhere else online you would get some harsh replies people that are vote for trade deadlines are

morons or no trade deadlines is you know insane et cetera et cetera et cetera I want to go around the room and just ask the question are they good or are they bad? Let's just simplify it down to the most basic form and see where the conversation takes us right. I'm going to start with you. Yeah. So I think it depends what you mean by good and bad as with everything. But when it comes to we're trying to all play a game together that is relatively fair, I think deadlines are good. If that's the goal, just to uphold the fairness and the continuity of the game we're playing, I think it's good.

And I mean, I'm sure we'll go into the reasons for that. But essentially, if you don't have a trade deadline, there's a couple problems, right? So if you're from the perspective of the rebuilding team and there's no trade deadline, you have every incentive essentially to wait as long as you possibly can to sell off your players. Because on the other side of that, the quote-unquote contending teams,

and what I mean by contending teams is the literal last two teams left in the league in championship week, if we're truly going with no deadline, that's when they are most incentivized to pay up as much as possible. So really, if there's no trade deadline and everyone is making perfect decisions or what have you, then there probably aren't going to be a lot of trades in your league until the absolute last possible moment. And I don't personally find that fun. I have a lot of other things I like to do in week 17 other than grinding through all of my

dynasty leagues and trying to move all of my players or all of my picks right then on that exact week. Yeah. So, yeah, I like moving up the decision point earlier in the season, make people make a decision make people, yeah, make a sacrifice or have to actually think about whether they want to buy or sell at the deadline. I think it's important to note that I don't think there's one right way

or one wrong way to play this out. I am in leagues that have three different settings for dynasty trades. I'm in leagues that have no deadline, can trade all year. I am in leagues that have a firm deadline. I'm okay with that too. can manage. And I have my favorite, which is the modified trade deadline, which I have been trying to make a little bit more mainstream. I feel like every year, the last couple of years, and it's slow going,

but we're going to continue to try to do that. Merge is kind of the best in both worlds. We'll talk about that a little later. I prefer to have a trade deadline simply because I feel like it makes the challenge of building your roster. Like I've said Dynasty is the easiest game in fantasy because there's so many outs. You have a ton of outs. It takes one person in your lead to make a trade that allows you to recover from a bad decision.

That to me is the easiest part of the game. If you're making that an unlimited possibility, it shrinks the repercussions, if you would, or the opportunity for there to be repercussions or your actions. And to me, that is important. Jacob, how do you feel about it? I know you have a very nuanced take on this.

You wrote a wonderful piece on this at Thinking About Thinking. That links in the description. Let's start breaking into it because I love what you wrote about it. You and I have had these discussions. And we converted Ryan last year. I think you popped on this show.

you were, we kind of switched it around. So I think it's possible if you really are just able to kind of open-mindedly look at this trade deadline conversation. Well, so my view on this, and I wrote about it, I wrote about a lot of stuff we're going to cover today, both strategy for buyers at deadlines and this trade deadline conversation at thinking about thinking people want to check that out. But my view on why I believe strongly in trade deadlines, first of all, the two most companies, in arguments I hear against trade deadlines in Dynasty are one, we should be able to have more trades, more league activity. Two, we should be able to have opportunities for rebuilding teams, the teams most in need of value, be able to leverage that against contending teams. I think both of those points are good. The problem is, I don't think that no deadlines actually work to accomplish either

of those stated goals. It doesn't accomplish the first one because of what Ryan said, which is, if you're a seller, you're more inclined to wait and wait and wait and wait until you can squeeze the best possible price. And then the critical part is it does not actually help rebuilders. The teams that get help the most, if we all agree that the highest prices available are going to be when teams are actually in the finals and they can smell a championship and they know exactly what player they need to put in their lineup and how much of a difference is going to make in their projection, if that's what the biggest returns are going to be, then the team. that actually have access to making trades at that point of the season are not just the rebuilders. It's also all the teams that just lost in the quarterfinals and all the teams that just lost in the semifinals. And in fact, those are probably the teams that are going to have the best assets for sale that week. There's probably not going to be that many items or assets that are actually going to get sold during the finals because these teams probably don't need more than one, two players each.

And so they're going to be shopping for the best of the best, the McCaffreys, the Barclays, the Henrys, whatever of those pieces just got eliminated. the last two rounds, and they probably just got eliminated off of playoff team. So actually, the teams who get to take advantage of this the most are not the proactive rebuilders that have been strategizing towards this. They're also not the teams that actually don't have value and need this injection. It's just whatever teams went all in and lost and then happen to still have Derek Henry on their roster, and they get to flip them. And so what it creates actually is an incentive of no consequences.

It's just everybody is incentivized to just go play redraft. and then if you lose, you just sell your best pieces off at the end. And that's fine. I'm not saying this to pity the poor proactive rebuilders. If you play in a no trade deadline league, I think you should not do that. I think you should go and try to play all gas, no breaks, all season, and play to the incentives of the league. I just think that fundamentally, that is a different form of game that is not actually this utopian, free market, rebuilders, taking advantage of contenders.

It's actually just the opposite. It just turns dynasty more and more into redraft, where there's no consequence to people's actions, and you don't have to face that fundamental dilemma that I think attracts a lot of people to dynasty, which is how much am I willing to risk out of my future to go chase after trying to win now, when in fact, you're actually incentivized to have it both ways.

I think that's brilliantly said. We're going to touch on that more when we come back from this quick break sit tight. One thing I love to what you just said there, it points out that I feel like not having a trade deadline can hinder rebuilders

in the sense that they will miss out on the opportunity to make deals at opportune times because if somebody is sitting in seventh or sixth instead of having to think out and plan their approach to the playoffs or what would be the playoffs

they can go, why, I'll just wait till week 14. I can wait till week 15. If I'm bordering, maybe you don't want to give up anything. If you're the seventh or the eighth seed, maybe you don't, you just kind of want to wait and see and see what happens. If you get that sixth seed already and now all of a sudden, instead of the Rebuilder, I saw Nick Westbrook Aquine get traded for a fourth today, simply because

somebody needed that wide receiver because they might need that seven points to still have a shot to get in by the deadline at week 14. I'm sorry, you just have a lower chance of seeing even deals like that with no deadline there's less of a push there's less of a importance to get those ever important uh points on your roster if you would so i agree with that i love that take for sure it also i think kills it's hard to say it it kills the blockbuster deal does that make sense to me it kills the blockbuster deal uh and those it's kind of selfish for me but they're exciting those are exciting trades you want to see three firsts get sent for garrott wilson and like james connor you know you want to see that you want to see big bombastic if you're fourth and it's the

semi-finals now and the person that has james connor is just sitting there because they just lost well now they're probably just willing to take anything they can get for him and now that price is now drastically changed it just changes the structure of big deals which is significantly less exciting for me personally it's one of the reasons i am for trade deadlines i will say this i am very much pro modified trade deadline let's talk about that for a minute because I firmly believe I modified you mean like non-playoff teams can still trade with non-playoff teams yes so when I when I talk about a modified

a modified trade deadline if you have not heard this before or this is like a new concept for you that's fine it's not common I believe that teams that are not in the playoffs

should still be able to make moves and if you think that oh well why would the bottom six teams trade with one another well why have no trade deadline those half the league is not trading with each other anyway so now you're just limiting your trading pool to the top sick it it's a weird argument to begin with hear me up if you have the bottom six teams there are going to be players that other people are still interested picks that can still be made bets people may still want to make to the next year as soon as a team gets eliminated that team is now eligible to go back and start trading with teams that have already been sitting out

until the finals have happened and then all teams return back into the trading pool. Yes, it means you can't double the price on a 32 or 31 year old running back to that guy that's now pushing into the finals. Correct. It does limit that. But there are other deals to be made. And it does allow you to get yourself set up, make some moves around, And it still allows rebuilders to continue working and not just forget about their lineups. I also have another method, in my opinion, that you pair with this, and it really hits home.

And it's an incentivized consolidation bracket. If you have the bottom six teams in a consolidation bracket, I like to use a bonus pick. We've been doing this for a while in a bunch of our leagues, Jacob. I've done it with lottery odds boosts too. I like having a draft lottery in a lot of my leagues. Yes. See, I like to award pick 201 to the winner of the bracket. It is an untradable pick until that draft is over.

It incentivizes the bottom six teams to continue to fight and win. So, yeah, when a player gets eliminated, guess what? Now maybe a bottom feeder team wants to go and acquire an older player that's going to score points and help you win in the consolidation bracket for that bonus pick or better lottery odds. If you pair a modified trade deadline with a competitive bracket for a bonus, whether it's a cash bonus, a pick bonus, like Jacob just mentioned a lottery percentage bonus to me, perfect solution.

That might sound crazy and that might sound like too much. But to me, that is the, that's the perfect balance, in my opinion. I love it. I wish I could get it installed more, but those votes keep getting knocked down. I'm just going to create more leagues and just say it's not votable, and we're just going to ride with that so I can one day become victorious in this fight. I will say that there's no agenda for us in this either. This is just our honest opinions.

we are not dynasty trade content creators that rely kind of on trades we're just not and if you are that's cool I get why you would be more in favor of no deadlines this is just an honest opinion on this and again no right or wrong way to play it just there's just not with all that being said let's talk about we talked a lot about selling last week. I don't think we need to do that again. I think we need to worry about buying at this point. Now, this is going to go for both deadline and non-deadline teams,

but it is week 12. A lot of deadlines are week 14, because if your deadlines are still in week 13, some are already happening. Some have change your leagues. I think we can push that trade deadline up. I am for that. Even pushing it right until the

playoffs start. Like that to me, that's the sweet spot now that we're in week 17 finals. That's when it should be my opinion. Now, we got people in chat. That's a great league setup. I actually like the sound of that. That's what I'm saying. Think about it. We'll go through it. DM me. We can talk more about it. I love that setup, obviously. Let's talk about who should be buying, why we should be buying.

If you are looking for, here's five players you need. to win your league. It's not us. Not what you're going to get from us. It's not why we're here. We want to talk about the teams that should be identifying, buying, how we should be buying, et cetera. So Jacob, let's kick this off with you.

Teams that are buying, how should we get it started? All right. I wrote about this and there's a lot of like charts and math and variables. I'm going to try to simplify this in the spoken version. but long story short is this. There's two main considerations I think you should of course have when you're deciding whether or not to make a big buy at this point in the year. Number one being how productive is your team

and associated with that is how likely are you to actually be able to get a buy? And then the other is how valuable is your team? How much buying power do you have for the long term? And we talked about a lot of that last week on the selling episode. I think that these, my theory is that on both of these, there is a bell curve effect to whether or not you should be buying. For production, my argument would be the very most productive teams, the teams that are already locked into buys, they're already first and points for, probably don't need to be

buying very frequently on those teams because the further you get as a favorite compared to another team, the less likely that that extra piece, that a little bit of addition to your projection is actually going to matter in a given playoff league. And then similarly, of course, the most fringy playoff teams, the teams that are major underdogs entering into the playoffs, the least likely that that buy is going to make a difference because your odds are very low to win the league anyway. So the teams that benefit most to me are those middling playoff teams. Maybe it's the, especially the teams where that buy might be able to help you immediately now get a buy, change you from the three seed to the two seed, something like that.

and those teams that maybe flip you from a 45% in a matchup to a 55% in a matchup. Because right, the closer you are even in a projection, the most impact that a slight boost to projection is going to have on your win equity. The opposite of that now is what I call the reverse VEL curve when it comes to value, which is that the highest value teams should be the ones most looking to buy because you're the ones that can most withstand being able to buy. You have that extra currency to spend in future years to go and focus on this year's championship. And then similarly, I would almost argue that the teams that are the least valuable contenders, the most fragile contenders, you're probably having to rebuild next year anyhow.

So you probably lose the least if you're throwing an extra second round pick out there, an extra third round pick out there. It's not going to matter that much in the aggregate because you're probably going to have to rebuild next year anyhow. The teams I'm least likely to want to buy from this value perspective are ironically those teams that are in the middle because those are the teams. because those are the teams where if you make a bit of any irresponsible win now push, maybe you're converting one of those future years from a contending year to a rebuilding year. You're turning a team that you maybe didn't have to rebuild right away into one that you do or a team that you would have had to do a one year rebuild into a two year rebuild. And so all that being said, you know, I wrote in the piece all these different kind of graphs,

but basically my rule of fun would be the further apart your value and your production are, the more inclined you should be to buy. So the teams that should be looking to buy, in my view, are either very valuable contenders that aren't that dominant in points where you have a lot of value to spend and you've got to make more of an impact in this current year or the opposite.

The productive teams that are pretty low value teams where, you know what, this is the best chance you're going to have to win your league for a while and you may as well go for it. The teams where the value and the production is actually closer together. Those are the teams where ultimately,

I think, buying makes less sense. Yeah, I completely agree. There are, I know from experience, because I have a couple of these teams, I have a few teams that are in like third

and they're like eighth and points four. How do you feel about teams going, I won't say all in. I thought, can I just, going all in is bullshit. It's bullshit. Stop it.

right you can trade three firsts for Pooka Nakua and in weeks that matter he can get you nine points still right and Pooka Nakuwa is great but now you've sent all your capital away and now you just get to roll out the same team that you have now it's bullshit a couple years ago it was you have to have Nick Chubb Nick Chub is going to win you weeks down the stretch because of his schedule and he averaged like 11 and a half points a game like you can go on by Derek Henry, right. Derek Henry is the running back. You need to win your go all in, send a first for Derek Henry and send whatever for who. And Derek Henry can go and not have a touch in the fourth quarter of a game because the Ravens are going to

raven. All right. Yeah, and it's an excuse for me to bring that up on how bullshit that is. But still, it's possible. So just, I think it's bullshit. You're a stubbed toe or like someone miscooking dinner away from that player being gone for the week that you need a

Let's, I think it's bullshit. Back to the point. If you have a team that's say not rich in points for and a mid, but sitting in second or third, that's pretty enticing Jacob. It's hard not to want to go and buy that player, buy that vet. So let me ask the two of you,

those kind of rosters, because there's a lot of them that they're important to talk about, are you more inclined to go and buy the mid-ish tier player, keeping in mind those, are very few and far between in week 12 of the fantasy season. Are those the players you're buying that have more risk? Maybe it's attached to them. I know I have one team.

I traded two seconds for Mike Evans and Zacherts. I really needed a tight end. Tight end has killed me. Mark Andrews, I thought I was all the way back in. And then Isaiah likely played again. We're all the way back out. So I need that 11 points.

I'm dying for that 11 points in my tight end spot. I sent two seconds. way. Now that's risky because clearly I don't have that higher production of a team if I am eighth and point four, seventh and point four but I'm sitting in second, third, or fourth. That team is actually ass, but we are getting by versus the wins and losses gods of the fantasy season. Are those the players, maybe not even the players, we're not getting into a player takes, but are those the teams that you're

taking a risk on these? Because look, like Evans is great, but hamstrings and a 31 year old wide receiver, that can sink you. I mean, it could easily pop up again here down the stretch or are you still investing more to get get the big dogs i feel like that's an important not quite tweener you are already locked in you do want to secure the buy we know that there's like a 30% chance of you winning it all if you just secure the buy so if you have that kind of roster because you talked about the you know tons of value maybe not producing as much or if you're just that mid tier points for team and value team How do you go and win if you're already sitting there and let's say through one through four,

you're already sitting well? How do you approach that? Because that's a lot different than what you had mentioned. So I think it, I think the first thing to think about if you're in that situation, number one, or well, really in any situation with Dynasty is number one,

can I get a buy, right? That's going to make the biggest difference to your championship odds over any singular player, right? If you think about the playoffs as just a series of three coin flips, essentially, if you don't have a buy, if you have a buy, you only have to flip the coin twice. And a player that you buy is only going to just change the weighting of the coin essentially, like which side is a little bit heavier. And you could even see this on Sleeper in all of your matchups. They have had this for years. They just have expected win probability based on your two projections. Not on desktop. I wish if it was on desktop. But yeah, you know, other problem

for desktop crusade aside. Yeah. And but you can observe this when if you go to set your lineup or whatever on a Thursday and it's like, oh, I got to take out the guy that had a buy in it. And going from like a zero to nine projected points or whatever might move your win odds from 43% to 48% or something like that, right? Right. It's, generally not that big, and that's even if you're going from a zero to an actual projection. Never mind if you're going from like a nine to ten points per game in your flex up to a 14 or 15 point projection. It's even less, right? So all you're doing when you buy is slightly weighting the coin on either side. You still have to flip it three times or if you're

getting the buy, you only have to flip it two times. Now to go directly to your question, Thomas, The way, and see, you thought I forgot your question and I didn't. I did exactly where I was coming to. Okay, I love that. So now to answer your question, Thomas, we, number one, we want to acquire players at a point in the season where they're going to increase our chances of earning the buy, right? So that that could be right now for some teams. And number two, we, especially if we're on, as you're talking about, kind of a lower production team that has lucked its way into possibly getting a buy.

Right. That's a team you might have to rebuild next year, right? Yeah. On average, I'd say. If value in production are close to each other, most likely that's a team you're going to have to blow up next year. You don't want to get into a huge deficit in your rebuild before it even starts, in my opinion.

That's just not how I like to. I don't like to have to dig out of the hole for an additional year. That sucks. But what you can do is instead of kind of nibbling at the edges of I'm going to send the second here or a third here for like a small increase in my projection or I'm going to be extremely irresponsible and go all in. I think you kind of want to stay live in the middle here where if you can send a first or probably not above the value of a first, right? for a player that's going to increase the weighting of the coin and ideally increase the odds, you only have to flip it twice. That's great.

But also you want the player on the other side of the bet once the coin flips are done and you're into the off season. You want this player to have, in my opinion, a more volatile range of outcomes. Why? Because we like acquiring volatile players on rebuilding teams. So either you're going to. going to lose those coin flips and it's, oh, I'm in a rebuild, but at least I have this out where the player has this volatile range of values that could still even pay off what I paid

for him when I thought I was buying him as a contender. Or you win the coin flips and you won the league anyway and you're cool and you don't care that you, that you now have a volatile asset. And you'll figure that out. That's a good problem to have, right? So I can give, I think probably the best example of this is somebody like Chase Brown right now, where he's a running back that this year, we can feel fairly confident that he's just going to project as a top five running back every week for the rest of the season. That's going to help most teams lineups.

If you're a win out of a buy right now, that is going to dramatically shift your championship odds if he's going to help you win a buy right now. But also Chase Brown can be purchased right now kind of under the assumption that this isn't going to last, right? Like Chase Brown is not going into week one of 2025 as the unquestioned Belkow. But what if he does? There's absolutely worlds where that happens.

There are not worlds where Chase Brown is getting 100% of running back touches every single week in 2025. But there are worlds where he's in like a Bijon Robinson-esque 70 to 75% opportunity share. If the Bengals really like what they see from him down the stretch here. And as we talked about, I think last week, It's not as if he has never carried a full workload before in college. So that's like a profile that, yeah, certainly could go back to 50% committee with Zach Moss or whatever other dusty running back that Bengals bring in the offseason or whoever they draft.

But that's a player whose value could spike after March goes around, after March passes, after the draft passes, right? So that's the type of player where you're on those. teams where you're feeling like you're on thin ice should I really be buying with this team you want it to be a type of player that you don't hate having on a rebuild because yeah because you could become a rebuild very quickly yeah I've saw I've I've saw I've seen Chase Brown go for a 25 one yesterday or today now clearly that's going to be a top you know it's a late pick right it's going to be from a top four team that wants their 20 21 points

per game. I think you're right there. That's still probably even too risky for me. But again, you're at slim pickings in week 12. I mean, how many teams have? A lot of these teams have been picked to the bone already, which is one of the things I don't understand with the, you need to have a no trade deadline

so you can get more. Who are you trading? Who's holding, if you're an eighth place and you're holding Josh Jacobs and not already trying to get ahead of, you know, everyone else trading away their players to give contending teams production, you're already behind. So it's just one part of it that I don't totally understand for that.

We're going to get Jacobs rebuttal to that when we get back from this very quick break. So sit tight. At Desjardin, we speak business. We speak startup funding and comprehensive gameplay. We've mastered made-to-measure growth and expansion advice, and we can talk your ear-off about transferring your business when the time comes. Because at Desjardin business, we speak the same language you do, business. So join the more than 400,000 Canadian entrepreneurs who already count on us,

and contact Desjardin today. We'd love to talk, business. When you're flying Emirates business class, relaxing in an exclusive airport life. lounge. You'll see that your vacation isn't really over until your flight is over. Fly Emirates, fly better. At Capital One, we're more than just a credit card company. We're people just like you who believe in the power of yes. Yes to new opportunities. Yes to second chances. Yes to a fresh start. That's why we've helped over four million Canadians get access to a credit card. Because at Capital One,

we say yes, so you don't have to hear another no. What will you do with your yes? Get the yes you've been waiting for at Capital One.ca.ca. Yes, Terms and conditions apply. Jacob, the floor is yours. Yeah, I mostly agree with everything that Ryan is saying there, for sure. I think that Chase Brown is a fascinating piece at this deadline because he's one of the few pieces that doesn't really fit

the archetype of what I'm about to say in that he is a young piece, but he's kind of valued. in some ways similarly to older, more fragile pieces. And he's a really interesting player to go for for that reason. Generally speaking, in terms of the archetype of player that I'm going for, the first thing I'll say is that you should never be attached to a particular player. The time to like trade for players out of player-based takes is not really when you're just trying

to buy points. Like, that's the kind of thing you do. If there's a certain player that you think is a buy low and you're a rebuilder and you want to get thrown into teams, really it's the thing you do in the off season or in season, but that's not really the context of a deadline buy. Deadline buy is really just about trying to maximize the bang for your back in terms of increasing the projection. I don't think you should really be that ideological

about what players you're targeting to accomplish that goal. More than anything, you just want to look at your current roster and you want to look at what is the biggest bottom my roster where I could create a really major difference between my current replacement level on my roster and where I can go and buy. So we're talking about all these productive rosters. Every roster actually is different, of course. If the strength of your roster is depth at this current juncture,

where you don't necessarily have a lot of elite players, but you're solid everywhere, you're probably a lot less well served by making an aggressive deadline by than a more studs and duds type roster, where you have a few true superstars that a couple of clear-cut weaknesses, because the actual impact of that buy that you go and make at the deadline is going to be a lot higher if it's plugging a massive hole versus if you're just adding another body and then trying to figure out who to start. To that point, what I don't really want to be buying with maybe the exception of like if you just straight up don't have a second quarterback to play or you don't have a viable play to end or something and even getting an average starter would make a big impact. Outside of that, I don't really want to be adding anyone who's not a meaningful projection. player. So like, you know, you're talking to bring up guys like Christian Watson. It's like,

okay, if you want to just make a bet on Christian Watson, you can make it bet on Christian Watson. But I'm not doing that in the context of adding points to my roster. There's no contending roster in which Christian Watson is making like a meaningful, weekly, projectable impact. It's probably different from whoever else you're flexes. So that could be two things. That could mean that's important. really up on a Derek Henry or a Sequin Barclay, where it's like, these are players where the projection is very high, the cost relative to that projection in Dynasty is not that astronomical because, you know, they're a much older player. And it could mean your Bejad Robinson,

Jamar Chase, what so what's so have you. From those top rosters, if you have a high value team, you know, I'm trying everything I can to try and get those truly young elite, players, those scarce players. If it's a little bit more fringy, you probably have to look a little bit further down the line. But ultimately, where it's decided for me is just who has the most difference-making production on their roster among all the managers that aren't going to make playoffs and who is willing to sell. And you just knock on those doors and hopefully you find a motivated manager who appreciates the situation they're in and is willing to sell off their points. But that would be the one big thing is like make sure that you're maximizing the impact of your buy. Because that's a mistake

that I made what I first started playing and that I see all the time is teams going to the playoffs. They're like, I just got to make an app. I just got to make an ad. And then they make an ad. And it's like, oh, now I have a 13 point projected flex, replacing a 12 point projected flex. And all you've done is like really strengthen your third player off the bench.

You know, if anything, this is right about when biweeks are going to end. This is really when the depth of your roster is starting to matter less than less. So just adding players to add doesn't really make a whole. whole lot of sense. You want to be very, you want to have a lot of precision in terms of who you're adding. And for that reason,

I think you want to be really only prioritizing those truly elite producers. And depending on the context of your team and the seller's teams, that could be younger guys or that could be those elite olds. To further that point that you just made,

how many guys, I'll rephrase what I'm going to say. How many teams, when you look at another player's roster, are you sitting there saying, man, if I just had that one guy, I would be able to beat him for sure,

right? Because we have to remember, unless you're rolling into the playoffs and you've had like, I don't know, Cole Comet or like Darius Slayton in your flex spots, how far away are you

from one guy making or breaking your roster? Because you can go all in and you can, not even go all in, you can go and even get and pay up for that expensive piece, that expensive player. Look at C.D. Lamb. There's somebody out there

that bought C.D. Lamb on the cheap thinking he was going to get a swing back after the Cowboys buy a week. Yeah, this is awesome. Now that player that you spent two and a half or three firsts on as Cooper Rush. And yes, yet C.D. Lamb had, he threw the ball 55 times, right? And now his upside is Terry McLaren. And you could have just went and got Terry McLaurin or like the chat said, Christian Watson from this week or one of 30 other wide receivers that had the same

range of outcomes. So there is no guarantee. Right? There's none. Absolutely none. So I would rather, I'm in agreeance with you. I would rather pay up a little bit for someone that we know has some long termish value than the short term.

But I will say in terms of solidifying the buy because let's talk about this. how I will I'll do almost anything if I'm sitting in the two spot or the one spot to solidify my bye week there was a year where the person I was playing against wasn't they were sitting in seventh and it was an absolute smash spot for Mike Evans and I bought Mike Evans from that player to make sure that they couldn't play him against me I knew I wasn't going to lose at that point and secure. my buy. I paid simply to make sure I had zero chance of losing the buy that week. Like I am, I overpaid to do it. I am aggressive.

How aggressive are you guys for securing the buy? Because in my opinion, that's the only thing that matters. Get the buy and call it a day. Ryan kind of touched on that. I am hyper aggressive for that. I will make trades in the short term that are very, I should say,

are very short term. I mean, that's why I think you should not be waiting until the deadline to make your buys, Right? To me, the best time to make the buys is week five, week six on those teams that look like they're going to be 50-50 for a buy week at that point in time because that's when you can really maximize the impact. But still, if you're considering making a move and you're tied for the buy or one game back or one game up, and you know, you have the week 14 deadline, I would certainly rather make the move now to maximize the runway of the impact of that addition versus waiting right to week 14 to do it. that's for sure. Yeah, I am very much hyperaggressive. What say you run? How hyper-aggressive are you to solidify the buy? Because there's going and getting the buy and then there's doing some kind of wild stuff to get it done. Yeah, no, I like I kind of mentioned it, it is the single most impactful thing. So again, I guess assuming we're in a league that has a trade deadline where you

don't have like a blown up version of this dilemma on championship week, that that is the biggest pivot point, right, is when can I make a move to maximize my chance of getting the buy? That has the biggest odds on your championship outcome. So, yeah, I don't know. I hadn't heard that story from you before, just buying Mike Evans off of the team you were playing that week to ensure you got it. I like that a lot. And I don't think there's, yeah, I think I'm with you there.

I think I would make a move like that. I'm totally, yeah, I think that makes sense. Yeah, it was in 2022. I did this, and it was for week 13. He played New Orleans. And I was like, I don't want him out there. So, yeah, I sent, actually, I said it was an overpay. At the time I was told it was, because remember,

fantasy community has been down on Mike Evans every year and he just keeps producing. I used to be one of them. It was Elijah Moore in a second. I paid the person playing me just to make sure that Mike Evans could play against me. At the time, to be fair, that second did, it was 201. It was from the worst. But I digress. Like, I am aggressive to the point where I will just pay to get a player off another person's roster

to make sure they don't play against me that week to secure the fact that I'll have a chance to get that by week. So I don't think that's even like the craziest thing, though, because you're benefiting from that on two sides, right? Like, if you normally, if you just buy a player, you're benefiting. Mike Evans is an exception to that, but I would like, I'm petty enough that I would do it for some like one week start running back. I would pay to get them off there. Like I'm, I'm that type of player. Like Mike Evans is an example where yeah, it worked out. He scored 51 points against the Panthers that year in the championship weekend, which Mike, if you can hear me, I need that again, buddy.

I think we all need that again. So if you don't mind, that would be great. But no, that's an extreme example. I've done it for way worse players, obviously at a lesser cost, but I've definitely done that. Sorry to cut you off. Carry on. I was just going to say, I don't even know if that is an extreme example because in that situation, you're not just getting the benefit from it on the side of I get the points on my roster.

You're getting it off of the opponent's roster in whatever the critical matchup is that's going to decide your buy week. So I would be willing to pay more for that because that specifically, player in that situation, almost regardless of how many fantasy points he actually ends up scoring in the real world that ends up playing out, that is swinging your playoff odds more than any other player that you were to acquire. So yeah, you probably should be willing to pay even more for the player than you might in a vacuum. Yeah, I mean, this is why I get into always trying to differentiate between the concept of value and buying power. Like, the value

of a player to you should be roughly equal to the expected value increase in dollars and cents for your league. So if there is a situation where it's one matchup, it's a crucial matchup, and you're able to make a material impact on that to get a buy, you know, and so there's a material impact now to effectively two playoff games at this point, then yeah, I mean, that's going to make that player clearly more valuable to you than that player is to their current owner in a way where there should be some middle ground to be found between that player's market value and that player's value to you and where both of you get split that difference between that delta of those two things. And hopefully that's what trade deadlines are all about and people are

approaching it rationally. I agree, Ferris. Ferris said the best deadline by is Joanne Jennings. I agree. Ryan, are you a full Joanne Jennings believer at this point? Oh, yeah. Yeah. So I was talking about Jennings. Funny you mentioned that. Incessantly all of last week. Yeah. No, yeah. Yeah.

Thank you, Jordan. Yeah, I was hoping we'd bring that one up back up later. I agree. So Jennings almost a little bit falls into kind of the Chase Brown mold that I was talking about from earlier, where this is a player who we could project for, I'm going to say, conservatively fringe top 12 wide receiver numbers for the rest of. the season. I am entirely bought into this is just Brandon Ayyuk that in redraft that you got off the waiver wire and in Dynasty you could get them for a third a week or two ago. Now he's probably

like going to cost you a second or more. I'm still okay paying that because yes, you're getting the production for your runway for the rest of the season. And also there's uncertainty in the 49ers passing game for next year. Debo Samuel's cap hit is going to balloon after this season. They could try to make it work. I have not super delved incredibly deeply into the 49ers cap situation. But my understanding is they're going to have to make some difficult decisions. A Debo Samuel could not be on the team next year. They may have to decide to not resign Brock Purdy or they might have to get rid of guys to do it. This is kind of when everything is coming to a head with how they have built their roster.

So we could be looking up in April, in May, or I guess even as soon as free agency in March, I'm like, oh, wow, Joanne Jennings is just going to be in this same role on the outside for at least the first eight to ten weeks of the year when Brandon Ayuk is recovering from an ACL. And even when he comes back, maybe he is still the second wide receiver on the team and is locked into that spot. And we think he's really good.

He's a bit older. He's 27 years old right now. So the ceiling of this move is not necessarily as massive as with the Chase Brown from like a future value perspective. But yeah, that's the exact type of player who is giving you an out, even if you end up losing this year to him not being like a horrible buy value wise. I'm not sure if you remember, but. Early in the off season, I mentioned, like, they extended Jennings.

They gave him an extension. They liked him enough to bring him back. And we have someone asking, like, what is this impact on Ayuk? I mean, it's definitely something. Like, what are the chances we see Brandon Ayuk back at full strength at all? This is a multi-ligament injury. I wouldn't be, I mean, IUK is not going to be anything close to himself next year. Exactly.

So obviously, that matters. I have looked into this Debo-Samuel thing. I'm not because of Jawan stuff, but just his injury, like even, as putting aside of the J-Wong stuff, his injury makes him a very bad bad for next year. Yeah, I've been avoiding the buy Brandon Ayuk train. We've talked about that a lot on the Dynasty Points Market Report, Andy and I. But post-June 6th, they said, have $17.5 million. They'll take a $10 million dead cap in 2025 and a $21 million-ish dollar dead cap in 2026.

There's still a very good chance that Debo is, in fact, not on this roster next year. He's very important. And if you are a Dynasty Points Market Report listener, you would have known that three weeks ago I referred to Joanne Jennings as my savant must buy in Dynasty. So you're three weeks ahead. If you're tuning in on that podcast, which comes out Friday on the Dynasty Points Net podcast feed, and Sunday morning on the Fantasy Points Now feed. So you're going to be checked in on.

that I think that's a great point I think there are a ton of different player buy options that fit kind of that description obviously we're not going to get into a bunch of them but the the chat definitely wanted to bring that up last thing I'm gonna ask for get out of here how this is something more I want to know just personally it's not even something I really had set on the show sheet how how liberal are you with your second round picks in terms of buying and selling because I have this habit of

I'll just send second round picks like I will send those things out I won't even think about them they're not even a thought in my mind if it comes if a player becomes available and I have to add a second to get it done like if I'm in that compete mode that's that's probably my dynasty kryptonite

that's probably the thing that I do way too freely is I eat second round picks. The next year I'm always like, oh, man, if only I had a second to buy player X. I really wish I could have drafted player X and Y in that upcoming draft in April, but, man, I traded them for wide receiver 41 on Keep Trade Cut now. So how liberal are you with your second round picks? Because I send those things out, no problem. I try not to just toss a two straight for a player for the reason that I talked about before. Like most players that you can get for a second are not going to make a massive impact on your roster. The exception to this again

would be like, the easiest exception to this would be if you are the DAC team or you're the Lawrence team or whatever and you need just a starting second quarterback in a super flexed to league to be able to have a viable path. You know, that's the kind of situation where I'm definitely willing to send that second round pick out. But like most wouldn't give me a second for Aaron Rogers though in legal record. Thanks for that. No, I did not. No, I did not. But I gave you a second for car so what's the difference it's true but still you had sent me the rogers one i really wished to would i hit that at the time yeah um the so that's the scenario where i will send the two out but like there's not a lot of maybe joan jennings would be an example of this but there's not a lot

of players that are worth a two that i think are going to have massive value over replacement so you know am i willing to add a two if it's in the context of okay i've already offered two firsts for a superstar and then, okay, fine, I'll add a two to that. Like, sure. I'm almost always trying to find ways to, if I am adding, like if I'm trying to add the Joanne Jennings of the world, like I'm doing everything in my power to not actually send it to for Jennings. I'm trying to send two adjacent things in players.

And if I don't actually get that, I'm probably just going to wind up not making the deal. because at the end of the day, like most of the teams, who take a very particular team where like I can just add that, send that to add Jennings, plop them in and it makes a big difference. Most of the time that's still just pushing a different starter out of my lineup. Like let's say I have Mooney is my last flex. Yeah.

Send a two for Jennings. And now Jennings goes in the lineup and Mooney goes to the bench. Like now I'm just wasting the utility of Mooney, right? So it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense when you start just stacking up, adding these twos and then adding a bunch of guys on the bench. Yeah, can you expand on the adjacent part of that? That's actually something that is really good to bring up. I talk about that a lot in the Discord,

and I say, can you send a first adjacent type value to make that happen? Can you kind of expand on that a little bit? Because we actually touched on that a lot previously, but we do say it a lot. Well, it's just I don't, like, you only have so many picks, and especially on contending teams, you know, on contending teams it's not likely that I have a massive excess of picks in this draft class you know I might not even have my own one and two going in if I do I probably don't have

an extra two or an extra several twos sitting around so in cases like that it's like I don't really want to be reaching into the coffers of my 26 twos and 27 twos to start racking up credit card debt for flex plays I just don't think that's good business so that being said like if I'll look at my team and go, like, are there some kind of young players that might be intriguing to another team that aren't in my lineup that aren't going to get in my lineup? And hopefully the answer to that is yes. Do I have Tucker Kraft sitting there as a third tight end? Can I use that value in some way? Do I have, you know, some wide receiver, like, is there a younger version of Jennings that's similarly valued that's sitting on my roster?

that if I trade for Jennings is displacing that player, well, I would rather just trade that player and then have a more efficient roster construction than add Jennings, move another flex-worthy player to the bench, and then lose another second. Just because you only have so many assets

with that universal appeal of a draft pick. So I'm, you know, ideally, I'm not trying to send out the picks unless that's the only way. Yeah. Again, brilliantly said, I just felt like touching on that because our listeners have asked me previously and I've honestly just forgotten

to answer the question. TD says tilting for Tillman. Yeah, obviously you want to see a little bit more to Tillman. He's also another player, right? And more obviously we talked about that in the trading like the selling

episode last week that you can go touch up on. One more break and we are going to get into the last piece of info here. We're going to kind of close out this trade deadline nonsense and then get into player picks and wrap this week's episode up. So sit tight. Okay, here we go.

Let's wrap up this trade deadline debate because I know it's not going to be the last we hear of it. I'm trying to have some fun with it. If there's one thing you could say to sway somebody who firmly believes feet. planted in the ground one thing to win the debate in debate club if you would versus the person

who is hard set they will not move they will not budge what would it be what would be your what would be your closing line to end the debate of all debates just dynasty and you should play in the rules

that make you happy you're so lame you're absolutely lame for that Ryan I like it at an attempt of giving like a serious answer I guess I'm like Jacob here I should dig into you for not getting serious answers like this laid into our podcast like you did to me last podcast yeah yeah

that's cool king of cop outs yeah I'm I'm too I'm too nice of a guy to do what you did to me last week so that's fine well we'll let that one stand so oh he doesn't want to let it stand no go ahead Jacob no you go all right so what I would say to someone that is very anti-deadline is I think everyone who's anti-deadline has this scenario in their mind where it's like, oh, I'm going to be the one that is going to totally make this crazy deal right before the championship. Like, I'm going to be the one that like the blockbuster is happening. No, you're probably not going to be the one.

It's either A, it's not going to happen at all because your league is inactive or that's the majority of leagues probably out there realistically or be someone else is going to be the one and you're going to be really pissed off so that that's just what I would urge you to consider I just think ultimately you know I'll restate the case that I made which is if if you agree with the premise that dynasty is ultimately about tradeoffs and about having to make tough choices between winning now, prioritizing the future. And if you think that the purpose of trading, and specifically of these point purchase trades,

is to give rebuilders a chance to extract a little bit of value from the contenders and help balance out the league. If those are two things you believe in, then I think that a trade deadline is a very hopeful lever to actually endorse that. If those are not things you believe in, then don't have a trade deadline. The reason why I flip out all the time about the trade deadline debate is that the arguments that I most commonly hear for it are arguments that the actual effect of no trade deadline trades, that it doesn't actually do what it is supposedly intended to do. If someone just says, look, I don't care what the effects are, you know, I'm a libertarian. I don't want any of your rules telling me what trades I can and can't make.

and I don't care what the perverse incentives it causes. I don't care about any of that. I want to be able to make a trade any time I want. Okay, that's fair enough, right? That's a coherent value system. I just want people to actually think it through and recognize what it is a trade deadline brings you and what it is no trade deadline brings you.

If you're happy with what no trade deadline brings you, then go forth and be married. It's still kind of a cop open. I'll take it. If I had to say one thing, oh Scott White said some leagues have ridiculous trade offers from the same guys that's dynasty unfortunately like that's right I'll say a good and a bad trade offer is very subjective

what is good to some people is going to be bad for others people have different value systems people have different they use different resources different advice tips etc I have sent trades and people have quite literally laughed at me and I've sent the same trade in another league and it got smash accepted. So good and bad are

kind of subjective there Scott, but I don't disagree with you. There are. And of course, I have a very regular saying for stuff like that as well for the other side of that. Ferris says no trade deadline

brings us the joys of things like trading Sam Howell for Joe Burrow. Jesus. That is the thing that happened. Yeah. no it did not yes that is one of the funny easily one of the funniest trades

in a league that Ferris and I ran together it'll shock you to know that the Sam Hal recipient is no longer oh shocker oh yeah they orphaned in the roster that's that's what no trade actually he didn't orphan the roster

actually he traded all of his future picks and then refused to pay and then forced us to remove him from the league Oh my face. Wow. Yeah. Yeah.

That's how you, that's how you increase your, that's how you really maximize your expected return there in terms of the. Yeah. Exactly. Close to making the mess. Yeah. Yeah. That's like that's the type of stuff, man. Yeah.

Now you're opening up a whole new world of like possible. And look, if you ever have to worry about. him $500 that I would have a better record than him this year, which he agreed to, but then I demanded that we put the money in a trust and then he didn't want to do that and he said that I was calling him untrustworthy and it was very offensive.

And that was a very entertaining day. You see, that that's the type of stuff that I love, man. I love that stuff. But it also as much as I always say, if you have to worry about like the legitimacy of your league or

if you're worried that people in your league are going to ruin the integrity, if you would, then you're playing with the wrong fucking people anyway, right? I can honestly say in, what is, since 2019, I've had problematic people in my league twice. One of them we dealt with this year in a league that existed for a long time, and it was a truly hilarious run of not introducing ourselves, which was not related to trading at all,

but just something hilarious that happened. And there was only one other time where I have ever in any league had to remove someone for refusing to pay futures on trades that they made conveniently enough and no joke, no bullshit, in one of the few no trade deadline leagues we were in

would not pay for the futures and had to be removed. So maybe that's why what I based my experience on. I don't know, but, Yeah, if you have to worry about, I'll say this, if you have to worry about the integrity of your league

or people colluding or some sort of tomfoolery, get out of the league. It means your league is ass, in my opinion. Oh, there's that. All right. Keeping, should I say, nah, I'm not going to say it again. I've said a lot about if you're not able to get deals done.

We're going to move past that one. I'll save that for the next time. It's relevant in a couple of weeks. Player picks, let's do player picks and get out of here. if you're new here and you're unfamiliar with how things work around here we are a dynasty show but we like to have a good time we need something to argue about and it just so happens that this year we are all getting dog walked by jacob sanderson so it doesn't particularly matter and the only other person i have to argue with this about is not here because he has some stuff going on he is in second um very sad But, Jacob, Ryan, you're in last. So you will go first. What we do is we take players, a quarterback outside of the top 15,

a running back outside of the top 15, a wide receiver outside of the top 30, and a tight end outside of the top 12 of the consensus weekly PPR rankings and projections. We pick those players, we total up the points. And at the end of the year, the winner picks the beverages, the other host drank at the live rookie draft that the Dynasty points takes over after the Brett Whitefield, the Scott Barrett's and Joe Dolan's live. Guess what? Four hours wasn't enough for you. Yet two to four more hours,

completely dynasty related for what we witness in rounds one, two, three. And really, I think we got to round six last year. I think after round six, we called it a day. We watched the Tyrone Tracys and Garandos get drafted for my sake and we finally called it a weekend. So maybe this year you'll still get six rounds, but we give you everything you need to know live as it happens and it looks like Jacob's going to be picking our beverages. I'm nervous. Not looking forward to it.

Picklebacks last year. I'm going to have to brush up on like my weird Canadian cocktails and just get myself prepared. Ryan, get ready, buddy, because it is rough. In one of the first years we did, I wasn't sure if former host Billy the Stone was actually going to make it through the duration of the draft.

He was a little mortal combat if you catch my drift. Great time. But you're coming in last year. Who do you have for this week? Yeah. So whenever we do this, this is like kind of doubles as my first look at like the DFS slate almost. And I just have to say that I'm assuming the quarterback position is going to be terrible this week.

Because there's not a lot of great options. I went with Matt Stafford against the Eagles. I figure because they have Cup and Nekua, they can't put Quinyon Mitchell on both of them. So that was kind of all the thinking there. Romandre Stevenson at the running back position, he's just seeing like top six usage numbers over the past month. It's kind of weird. He's not getting like the respect in the rankings and projections. Roma Dunzei at wide receiver.

Fun fact, O'Donze was the first Bears receiver to go over a 30% target share. in any game this season just last week. So maybe that continues. Yeah, out of the buy, new OC, Thomas Brown, all that. And then tight end is equally abhorrent this week. So we just picked the guy in the highest total game, hoping to steal a touchdown, which is Mark Andrews against the Chargers. No, it's over.

If likely he's playing, it's so over. Like, I don't get it. Also, that, I don't want to talk about the Ravens. I'm going to do it. I might start a Ravens podcast. Like, I'm not even kidding. Like, I might, I keep getting ass. I should just start a Ravens podcast where it's just me freaking the fuck out over everything the entire time.

Just watch the games and put it on a podcast. I've been told that. I mean, you do it in my DMs every weekend. So not every weekend. I gave me a bit that much additional work. What did I? I didn't say. Yeah, but I was looking for it this weekend, Thomas.

Oh, okay. It would have been fun. Come on. I was hoping it was a bad thing here. No, I'm entertained. I'd listen to the podcast. It's more convenient when it's in my DMs because then I will always see it and not have to remember to turn it on when I'm in the shower at the gym or whatever.

But, yeah, I mean, either way, I'm cool with it. I want the content. All right. Well, maybe I'll add that. We'll add that to the list. Well, I guess next up is me seeing as how I am in third here. have moved up. I had a phenomenal week this last week.

If it weren't for Lucas absolutely crushing me, I would have, I would have done, he had nine, Lucas had 95.9 ppr points last week. He almost had a hunt. That is, I thought I was sitting good with my 62.2.2.

I was like, you know what? I played Gino. I played Jamo. I played disley. I was on fire. Tony Pollard shit the bed. But,

uh, Lucas, going to go over his lineup because that was truly insane. He should be doing better, all right? He is running the war tool at fantasy points. So he's got a lot to make up for. But this week, I'm going with Drake May. I'm going with Rashad White.

I am taking the biggest of gambles. And I am doing a DFS bro style bring back with Jalen Waddle. It's going to happen one week. I'm just going to keep picking Waddle until it. it does, but it's going to happen one week. One of these days, my small place best ball teams will encroach upon 11. Can we just, I don't know. That was me with Christian Watson this weekend.

That was literally all I could think about was my last place best ball teams. Do it for the last place, best ball teams, Christian. Do it for the last place, best ball teams. Wesley, we'll answer that question at the end of that. I feel it's a very important question to answer. the content here. We'll get into that for sure. And at tight end, I got to go Jetavian Sanders. I like him. His participation is really good.

I think we're done with the Ian Thomas stuff. Hopefully, please let them be done with it. And Bryce Young, though, still pretty bad, has been able to find the Sanders. So he's at least getting worked in. When it comes to tight ends, I don't know, he's athletic maybe he busts a big one i have no idea what i'm doing here at tight end so that's that let's run over lucas is uh i will read that out for him he absolutely crushed last week and he deserves the shout out james winston david montgomery mv s and john new smith last week that is an insane runout he was one tasem hill shy of just like going nuclear uh insane runout from

Lucas last week. Let's see if he's got it again. He's going with Russell Wilson versus Cleveland, Bucky Irving versus the Giants. He's going with Wondell, Wario Robinson with Tommy DeVito coming in. And he's rolling with Sam Leporta versus Indy. Obviously, hurt. He can end up taking a zero here if they play it slow with him.

We'll see. Indy needs the game. So they might actually try to push it. Also, this one to shock the world, A, Rich? I was just about to say, very proud of Jacob for not grandstanding. I'm not much. I'm proud of you. Thank you. I appreciate that. I think your poetic stance a couple weeks ago set up this outcome. So I'm happy it happened. I did tweet that. I caused it. It's my my responsibility.

People are wondering, you know, is the benching good? Does this prove that Cycun was smart? It proves is that it proves is that it was on me. I saved the Indianapolis cults. Amazing. I tweeted us back to relevance. And if you, I hope you are the people that bought for whatever second and not sold because boy, oh boy, I was very happy sliding him back into my lineup. And for the one person that tried to clown me because I traded Anthony Richon for Jared

Goff, that's a Millie Maker, I believe, if I'm not mistaken, Jared Goff from this last week. So there you go. Jacob, who do you got this week? All right. I slid back a little bit last week. You know, I'm trying to make it a little bit interesting. The viewership up for late in the show. So this week, I'm going with Caleb Williams.

He ran nine times for 70 yards with the new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Maybe that's a sign of things to come. We had a little bit more fantasy upside out of him. but with Kareem Hunt and running back, they get the Carolina Panthers. Isaiah Pacheco might be back this week. We will find out. But I can't imagine that they're going to go from zero to 100 with him. I would suspect Hunt was going to get a majority of the work either way for this week.

And I think there should be plenty of carries to go around against the Carolina Panthers, fresh off the chief's first loss of the season. I went with Christian Watson, who has become now clearly the second Packers wide receiver in terms of routes. And he is now, unbelievably, you know, over 700 routes in his career. He has a career routes run of over two. I can't think of any other wide receiver who has run this high of routes per game when healthy and has maintained over two yards per route run over this many routes in his career. And we still don't really know if he's any good.

But the stats indicate that he is. So hopefully he is this week in a game that I think that they're going to have to pass against the San Francisco 49ers. and then I'm going to go with Cole come at. They're playing the Minnesota Vikings. I suspect that's a team where they're going to have to get the ball out pretty quickly against the various bluts packages. That should help commit in the short areas of the field, I hope. So I'm going with him there.

I love those picks. Yeah, the Packers, wide receivers, man. They're just a weird bunch. You see, it's like Jaden Reed in Wins has like 36 yards per game. And in a lot, he's like the wide receiver version of Derek Henry, but in the opposite effect. It is truly wild what his splits are. That offense is just annoying.

That's what we have for the show, but I do want to mention this. Wesley Peterson says, when is draft content coming? Being a weekly, being a weekly Dynasty podcast, it can get tough in season to bring new and fresh concepts and ideas. One thing that Dynasty points has not had really at our. disposal before is access to very smart and intelligent film analysts and other people able to really break down some college information this early. This year we are going to have way too early looks at wide receivers we're looking at, etc.

The problem is the NIL has made it a true pain in the ass to project who's actually going to the draft. So the one thing we don't want to do is sit here for two hours and discuss our favorite prospects and have four of the big ones and I'm going back to school. So what I can say is that I do have plans

to have guys like Brett Whitefield, Josh Chavaleigh, even Eric Froton on the show to discuss some rookies coming up. But that's still, we're probably about a month away from that. We're probably into the fantasy play off is probably when we really start

looking at rookie content. And then we'll answer this last question. Trondez says phenomenal. We appreciate you, TD. Are you guys buying, selling, holding Xavier worthy? I don't have any. I mean, I have one share, but selling.

Yeah. I don't have any, so I wouldn't know. I will say that I'm not buying. I refuse to buy and had refused to buy because who know? You can still get good value. A player's biggest upside being DBs, forget getting to cover them is not something that I want to buy. For Quentin Johnston, every single week.

Hey, it is. Somehow luck boxes. A 30 yard on car. Dude, I have, it has been the sweat of my life. Like, I have an unhealthy amount of parlayes riding on his season long under. And like the sweat of this under 575.5, just as I watch him collect. seemingly 280 yards purely on uncovered routes is absolutely infuriating. Like, this is going to be the worst beat of my life, just watching him beat his season long over.

Exclusively on uncovered coverage busts is so tilting. It's one of the most aggravating seasons I've ever experienced as this Quentin Johnson. Yeah, and that's... I could talk for hours about how angry it makes me. And how angry it makes me the way that people, like, respond to the situation where it's... Oh, yeah. Let's talk about it. It's the most obvious thing ever to point it.

We literally have in the Fantasy Points data suite, we have a busted coverage filter that you can turn on and see, okay, yeah, our entire team of film charters who know exactly what they're talking about all got together and said, yeah, this play was a busted coverage. that this is exactly how many yards and fantasy points Quentin Johnson has scored on these busted coverages. But people will still say, I think it's funny in like the ironic sense to say, oh, well, he's really sneaky or whatever. They can't see him. But then the people will say it unironically. And that just, that drives me insane.

I'm sorry. She does a great job of getting lost in the coverage and finding a way to break open. Enough. Enough. I will say, though. I can't with QJ, man. I can't. I will say, though, Jacob, do you know who's second in that statistic?

At least I think he's still second? Probably Jaden Reed, I'm pretty sure. Yeah. Correct. That is exactly it. It is your boy, Jaden Reed. Yeah, very, very interesting how that's coming to be. I still think QJ is doubling him, if I'm not mistaken, last I checked.

QJ is got to be like literally like the all-time NFL leader in bus and coverage yards. Like it is it's every week Every single week he gets a bus to do you know what's the scariest thing And this is just us now We're way off any show sheet This is just kind of bonus Bro's talking ball But you want to know it's the most disappointing part of this

For Justin Herbert Who Herbert has looked like he's like Turned the corner over recent weeks Herbert still only has 14 total touchdowns on the year And Johnson has six of them and five of them are the broken coverage. Like, I think five.

I think it's five touchdowns off broken coverage. We're going to find out right now. I'm pulling it up. So then it's like, all right, we're finally getting Justin Herbert. He finally has two games over 20 fantasy points and four point leagues. Let's go 24,

19, 19, 24. And it's like QJ, QJ, QJ, QJ, broken coverage,

broken coverage, broken coverage. It's becoming really hard to figure out what's what's going to happen um meet revolt says uh her bro running was the sneaky part of the equation that's also true he is running for his bloody life out there right now i don't know how much they actually want him to do it but we'll find out they get baltimore we'll see what happens but yeah uh i think it's five touchdowns ryan i think off broken coverage uh so it's this is showing me three three to quentin johnson and one to josh palmer on okay

coverage is. Can we not have a lot of Conckey? Let's have a budget coverage for my wife. Yeah, I know.

Oh, that's also the other thing I immediately He hasn't. He hasn't needed but that's been unreal. Like,

Ladd is good. Ladd is an ethical score. Yeah, he is, he is legitimately good and like very much legitimately can be, you know,

they're, they're Keenan Allen, 100%. I believe it. He's looked damn good. I will say, for everyone that said the slot fade is not usable in the NFL, the egg on your face is showing because I swear every play Ladd-McConkie gets open.

He motions into the slot. Sometimes it's an out-and-up. Right, but he goes from the outside. He motions into the slot, and he is one way or the other, like either slot fading or like slot out and up. The Ladd-McConkie special is the, is like, yeah, he motions into the slot,

but then he runs the out-and-up, and it's like, I don't know if I've ever seen anyone run that specific route as good. Like, he'll do, like, the jab to the end and then to the out and then back. And it's like he's just dance, dance, dance revolutioning. It's the crazy thing about it is like, I was a very pro lad person. Adam, wide receiver four in the class. But, like, I will even admit, I did not give him credit for how good he is in contested

patches. Yeah. Every time that he, like, does the rip up and through on those balls that are like slightly unintentionally underthrown. and he's hanging on to him. It's like, I wasn't familiar with that part of your game. Like, I knew he could run routes and get open everywhere. But, like, every time that they throw a contestant go ball to Ladd-McConkie or slot

fade or whatever, I'm like, that's a goof. Oh, he caught it. Yeah. I still don't actually buy that he's going to come down. Like, he's, I thought he was Tyler Lockett. I think he might be Doug Baldwin. That's a good, that is actually a really good description, actually. I like that a lot.

I will say with Ladd-McConkey, he does. does look kind of like a cartoon character. Like his helmet. His helmet. He does. His helmet looks three sizes too big. Yeah, he looks like a Pop Warner.

You know, kids play Pop Warner. Every time they would cut to him in the prime time game the other night. Yeah, he's just like looking up at the crowd like fucking, yeah, I don't know. Like it's like innocent look on his face. Yeah. The most of the team.

Yeah. Looks like he's like in Pop Warner. playing like in an age group that's two ages above. Like it's truly remarkable. He looks like he's like a 13 year old. He was like such as like anyway, it's crazy. Yeah.

And it's truly suppressing his dynasty value beyond where it should be because you can't watch him and like wrap your head around. But like this guy who sounds like the name of an Irish pub and looks like a 14 year old is just like out there dominating in the NFL but it's true nonetheless. amazing truly amazing yeah shout out lad mcconkey ben he is uh he was an easy click this summer

um and we'll be an easy click in startups next year as well all right i think i think that's it that's all we got i will say if you guys want something specific for next week you can leave it in the comment or reach out in the dms i would ryan you and i had the idea to do a show a couple weeks ago they got moved where we compared consensus rankings i think that's what we're going to lean next week we'll talk about it as a group and figure it out i just realized george pickens is that wide receiver 13 and i want to talk about it because oh my god uh shout out brandon stevens the worst defensive back in the nfl for letting george pickens boost that value for you because my god six catches for 67 yards allowed by that guy of russell wilson's like

like 167 yards allowed all game this last week, but I digress. We're not going to talk. I didn't know we were doing the Ravens podcast. Sorry, sorry, sorry. I got to stop. I have to be stopped. Like I could go on about that game for three hours.

And I don't want to be like, you know, I'm going to change my Twitter handle to like Ravens F for Life or something. I don't know. Change my to fire Harbaugh, 27. I don't know, whatever. team accounts. They drive me I'm going to start posting. We just signed like Desmond King

who's a corner and I'm like they were posting his like rookie year highlights. I'm going to start being that guy that post Jalen Rager highlights when the Chargers signed them. I'm going to watch out. That's my Twitter account coming up. I'm going to lose every follower I have. Anyway, that's going to do it per show this week. We'll see you guys next week. Enjoy your games this week.

It's a brutal one. Six buys. Truly disgusting. Keep an eye out for the fantasy points. content it changes with the american thanksgiving i should just say thanksgiving because we have more american viewers than canadian well the canadian viewers are going up so shout out to us where we're really we're no we're converting them but uh so the thanksgiving content schedule does change there's an extra cashing points on wednesday matchup points gets moved to wednesday so be on the lookout for that no cage match etc so be on the lookout for that we'll see you guys

on the next episode remember to reach out to us we're always available if you have questions that didn't get answered leave in the comment section I'll be there at your disposal remember to check in on your loved ones even if you're not sure that they need it remember that clear eyes full hearts can never lose in your best days

well goddamn they're always spent tilting good night everybody