Fantasy Football Daily - Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets + Trade Deadline Talk | Dynasty Points

Episode Date: November 6, 2024

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We'd love to talk, business. Thursday night can only mean one thing. It's time for Dynasty Points. Of course, if you're listening to this in podcast form, then it can only mean one thing. It's Wednesday morning. We love and appreciate all of you for tuning in. We have a fun short program this week,

not the two and a half hour to three hour long marathons. Lucas told me he would have to resign if we push it for another two hours. And we just simply can't have that happen. halfway point in the season is here and it is time to check in on some players that we are actively trying to trade for. Jacob, you and I went back and forth a little bit. I think there was a little bit of a misunderstanding on the message in our Twitter

back and forth here, which we're going to end up talking about today, at least a little bit given the players that I personally am out there trading for and what that means. We're going to get into that. Of course, we have player picks with Jacob is absolutely still smashing us in. none of us can catch up.

So it's, that's real fun. You just spotted you guys at zero at tight end this week, but didn't. Yeah. You could have spotted us a zero at quarterback running back. I basically did. I took five points combined at quarterback and tight end, but I think I had about 55 at wide receiver and running back.

Amazing. Look, we're going to not waste a whole bunch of time. I just do want to mention if you are watching and listening right now, the number one place that you can be listening to us is that's on the Dynasty Points podcast channel individually. We post different content there. You get the Dynasty Points market report there a couple days early,

which by the way, again, Dynasty showed up and showed out still the number one most downloaded and listened to product in Fantasy Points, period, across the board. So much love to you guys. Head over there, ratings, reviews, all that stuff helps drive us up every possible chart. And if you're on YouTube, well, guess what? you can hit like and subscribe you can use promo code youtube 25 get 25% off your fantasy points.com subscriptions all that out of the way let's talk about it because the NFL trade deadline

has come and gone and it was flat it was not exciting the big deals had already happened unfortunately christian kirk got hurt for the year he wasn't able to get moved we saw no quarterback movements derrick car was not tarred and feathered so there were some things that maybe were expected but not so there were two though trades that i think are somewhat fantasy relevant and i already got an eye roll before we went live uh of course i'm i should actually say i'm thomas tippel that's jacob sanderson lucas gilbert and ryan heath i skipped that whole thing uh but i think the mingo trade to dallas is something we should actually look at obviously herms is saying we should look at the

Steelers. Michael, I don't care about that one, personally, sorry. Don't care about defensive players. But I think Mingo

might actually be worth FAB. Here's why. I mean, right, literally anyone. There's basically no player that you can tell me is not worth Dynasty Fab.

The opportunity costs. Well, that's, that's kind of what I was going to get to. Brett Whitefield said that the usage from Carolina with Mingo

has been atrocious. Now, obviously when you have a player who's more known for his jumping, putting his feet out of bounds, weird looking catch than he is anything else in his career. It's not great. But I think he's worth a look. And if you've been just holding him and waiting to move him at all,

you might have an opening. Someone might buy in, who knows? But let's look at what he has to deal with in Dallas. Tolbert has struggled since his mini breakout early in the year. He's not exactly doing a whole lot. cooks is well old and dusty and so there's an actual there's an actual opportunity there there might actually be a chance he gets on the field there really might be the problem is is no DAC now for a few weeks so here we go DAC is done so is there any other takes on the mingo trade aside from

yeah like 12% of your remaining fab is like a good bit and then you'll put them on your bench is Is there anything else that anyone could think of? Well, yeah, let's play a game, right? So there are 526 wide receivers who have caught at least 50 passes since 2000. But anyone like to guess where Jonathan Mingo ranks in yards per route run among those 526 wide receiver. He's caught 50 passes? Yeah. Damn.

I think that. I would guess. I know. 525. I'm going to say he's third last. Oh. I was going to go with a solid like 505. Okay, it's 526.

So 526 of 526. In the overall wide receiver scoring done by ESPN Analytics in 2023, there were 153 wide receivers who ran enough routes to qualify. Where do we think Jonathan Mingo wound up? He's probably last. Like I saw a lot of the PFF stuff about him and how he's last. And I get it. I told him.

He's not even second last. He was second last. Oh, okay. That's an improvement. He's also second last in that metric this year. I mean, basically, one of the fun things is just if you scroll through Twitter and you follow basically anyone who does wide receiver analytics work, each person has like a slightly different analytic. And then basically all of them, Jonathan Mingo is like last, second last or third last. And it was kind of funny to just scroll through finding out how many different metrics that apparently have acronyms that I didn't know about that Jonathan Mingo sucks in.

But yeah, I don't know. I'm not going to get mad anybody for doing their fab. Do I think it's worth the utility of my personal time to make fab bids on Jonathan Mingo? No. But maybe your time is less valuable than mine and then it's worth it for you. I think it's worth it. I think they paid enough. Like we don't talk about like what teams pay for players on this because we're not like an NFL show at all.

We can all admit that paying a fourth for Mingo when we see what the other wide receivers win for us. assonine, right? Like, that is, that's insane. We can all, we can all kind of agree on that. Yeah. You can just, I will say, I have capital on fire. I want to be very, very, very clear that none of this is defending the Mingo move. And I want to say that one more time. I'm not defending the Mingo move. Okay? Is that clear? Yeah. That being said, I get it all in my fantasy group chats. I get it in,

especially in Honee group chats. People always see it on Twitter where it's like, oh my God, like they traded this from Mingo. you could have got Hopkins for this. You could, you could have this for Mingo. You could have got like, what people are trading for is they're trading for assets in the NFL. And that means includes the contract.

So you cannot compare trading for players on year two or year three in their rookie deal versus trading for veterans. There's a very small market for veterans in season, especially ones without an extra year on their contract, which is largely contending teams. There's only eight to 10 of those that are looking to buy them. All of them that want them have largely bought. So the market's very small.

and you're treating for an asset that in theory is already someone you have to pay a fair value contract to. There's cap implications to that. So I think people often overreact with shock when they see a household name like an Adams or Hopkins or Hopkins or a Cooper, you know, move for way less than people expect. And then it's like, oh my God, like people think mingo is better than DeAndre Hopkins. No, they don't think mingo is better than D'Andre Hopkins. You're willing to pay more for the cost controlled asset. Obviously, I don't think that mingo is going to be a bet that works out for them. so I would not have given a fourth round pick.

I would rather just take the swing with the fourth. But it's a like for like trade. That's why teams do that for Mingo. That's why teams do that for Dotson. It's very different than when it's not a like for like trade when we're talking about a veteran player. Right. If you follow, he's a wonderful follow.

It is Michael Ginnity of Sport Track. He even commented on this. He said, well, he certainly hasn't come close to living up to his draft expectations. Jonathan Mingo has 4.1 million remaining on his rookie contract over the next one over the next two and a half years. Players with multi-year term and potential financial value costs more in trades and always have. So basically sums that up.

If you're not following the Spotrack Twitter account, I mean, you're losing out on a lot of contract information that is super valuable when looking at this stuff. I think that's enough talk on Mingo. Sell if you've got them and you have an opportunity, I'll say that. like pair him with something and just go get a third. I don't know. But if you've been waiting, this is kind of maybe your last chance,

but we'll see. We don't know what's throwing the ball. Might be Tray Lance season. We don't actually know. We'd be fun. We really don't know. It'll be good. Really quick.

Really quick, does anyone want to see if they can guess one of the six wide receivers that has a worse ass than Mingo right now in 2024? If I wanted to, if we had to guess. I went minimum 50 routes. Can you get any of the six that have, a worse ass than him.

Well, TD did want to know how Mingo's ass was. What's the, what's your cutoff for targets? For ropes? 50 routes. 50 routes? 50 rounds. But I do you get six wide receivers, worse ass. Dotson. Not Dotson. I'm going to say QJ,

Quinn Johnson. No. He, how is five spots above him. Okay. How about, how about Polk? Oh, Polk's. No. Polks is higher. I got a bonus one.

How about Mike Williams? Yes. Ding, ding, dang. That is correct. Slow. He's second worst. Terrible. I can just read on the list.

Andre Yoshimoss? How's he doing? No. Nope. Okay. Twitter favorite. The others aside from Williams are Robert Woods, Juju, Nick Westbrook Akeen,

David Moore, and Ronnie Bell. So yeah, every, yeah, none of those players, I'm like, man, that's, A lot of helpful contributors. Oh, my gosh. Yeah.

Fair enough. Fair enough. Let's talk about Khalil Herbert because this is a guy. Jesus. I just full Collinsworth. Jacob, you liked Herbert a lot in Chicago. Then he basically gets sat down.

And we thought he was going to get moved. He was the running back that everyone said was going to Dallas, going to Dallas, going to Dallas. Turns out Dallas didn't need him because they have the go at Rico Dowdle. And now... People need to give up with the... Except for Jonathan Mingo, but...

Genty this year. Just wait. It's just like every... Yeah, I mean, maybe, like, you know, this will be true until it's not. But like, at least this offseason, every single thing that the Cowboys did, all off-season suggested,

and last season, for the most part, suggested that they don't really value the running back position. And then people kept trying to pretend like they valued the running back position. And it was like this weird thing where like they would do another thing that said, we don't want a running back.

And people would be like, That must mean they're doing this at running back. And it was like, no, they just don't care about running back. So, you know, maybe that, maybe they have a philosophical shift about that next season. We'll find out. But, yeah, I'm not surprised they didn't go to Dallas. Herbert in Cincinnati is interesting. I think he's interesting.

I think he's interesting. It's a slightly odd fit because it's not as clean as the brown moss fit just in terms of like complementary skill sets, where Moss is a great pass protector. He's very much like a kind of grinded out three yards in a cloud of dust type running back on the ground, not going to add anything really explosive, not going to do much beyond what's necessary in the passing game. And so, you know, they got after after the first couple weeks at least, they got to what I thought was a really efficient split, which was Chase Brown handling about two-thirds of the touches. Whenever he was on the field, it was far more likely to get a touch. Snaps are about 50-50 and a lot of mosses were kind of these empty-calorie pass-pros snaps. Herbert's more like Brown than he is like Moss.

I think he runs a little bit more physically than Brown and is not as fast, but his best attributes are being an explosive runner being unleashed in the screen game, not really a receiving game guy and a pretty terrible passport. So what we could see here, we saw in the one week without Moss, I was curious to see how much of the long down and distance stuff went to Brown versus went to Trayvion, Williams, who was the RB2, at least for a week. And they split it basically right down the middle and Chase Brown got every single actual running back touch.

Maybe they have trusted Brown enough through this little audition where they're going to let him kind of continue with that. And then Herbert eventually works into, say, 20, 30 percent of the running back touches on the ground, kind of like what Moss was doing just to keep Brown fresh. That's kind of what I expect. Or maybe, give or take, you know, Trayvion Williams getting like five, six snaps every week to go block on a third and 10 that doesn't really matter that's that's probably my expectation i think they hate every other running back on their roster which is why they brought one in

like they they they hate these guys like the jets hated michael carter like it they everything they can to not put them on the field uh they will i just i do find it interesting and i do think it's important to note that chase brown finally got 80% of the snaps at 27 carries five receptions his biggest workload by a lot and immediately like, yeah, we're worried about actually, you know, letting him do this. We don't want to. So I find that interesting, something to keep an eye on. It's a lot of touches, right?

We've got 32 touches. That's a lot of touches. And the one thing that I will say for Chase Brown is that people forget, because he's a little bit smaller, that they forget that he actually did handle like an insane amount of touches. Right. as a college running back. Yep. And I think that that often gets underrated where people think of him as the sort of finesse guy.

And so they think that of the guy didn't, oh, can he really stand up to the workload? He did in college. So he can do that in a pinch. Yeah. I don't think any team in the NFL outside of maybe like the Ravens or the Eagles is going into their week to week hoping to give 32 touches to one running back. It's just irresponsible. So I think the Brown is still going to have a clear lead.

and I don't think that Herbert's going to see more than, you know, what most other running backs RB2s get and other backfields. I'll take 25%, probably. Yeah, 25, 30%, but that's not a bad thing. That's what happens in most backfields. And, you know, I've seen some people say that they think Herbert's better than Chase Brown. In a total vacuum, I don't necessarily disagree. Like, I think Herbert's an excellent running back.

But this isn't a vacuum, right? He's coming on board a moving train with a team that has already been getting great results out of Chase Brown, who's a running back who's been in their system for a year and a half and has been playing as they're starting running back for most of this season. So, you know, if they signed Cleal Herbert, if they traded for Cleal Herbert in April, I would have a lot less certainty about this take. But at this point in time, I think with Herbert is coming for a couple series. And if Chase Brown goes down now, they actually have a real running back on the roster.

If Chase Brown did not go down previously, they were dead. They would have had absolutely no one who was giving them anything viable on the ground. now they do. Yep. Nope. I don't disagree with any of that. D. Brough says they don't hate Chase Brown. I know. I'm saying they hate every other running back on their roster. We're a pro Chase Brown podcast. We're all year. We converted Ryan Heath. So shout out to Ryan Heath for joining us. Yeah, we're loving this right now. But yeah, I don't think I saw a lot of the Khalil Herbert better going to be his backfield in a few weeks. I don't think that's true. Also shout out Zach Moss. Hopefully he plays again. Like this is that's kind of a scary enjoy. to have but yeah let's um yeah let's hope he gets better i say we take a quick break and then we get

into well first i'll say this does anyone else have anything to say about trades that were made at all any of them looking back on any of them no all right thought i would let's leave it open for the room quick break and when we come back we're going to get into players that we want to trade for right now should be interesting sit tight well it's halfway through the nfl season today's the NFL trade deadline. We are at the point where in most leagues, you kind of know where you are sitting.

I will say this, though. I don't know about you guys. When I look through my dynasty leagues and my team is six and three or seven and two, even five and four, I'm like, there's definitely some teams that are selling right now. I scroll down the standings and there are five

teams tied at like five and four. Like at no point in any other year have I noticed, that the cluster of mid-tier teams has been stronger, thanks to injuries and other teams being able to just insert Joe Schmo's to stack points and get wins. It's a really weird year. I think it's helped so many people potentially contend.

Makes the task of adding veteran help a lot harder. So let's talk about it. It doesn't have to be a veteran. It does not have to be a rookie. I think people get that confused a lot of the time that there's no in between when trading for players. But each one of us has a player that we are trading for right now and why. And we're going to dive right in.

I want to start with Ryan. I'm interested to hear who you have dubbed the player that you're trading for. Yeah, you're not actually going to be surprised at all. I'm sorry if you thought this was going to be like a big reveal or something. So if I'm trying to buy on a content, team. What I want, obviously I want production, but I may as well, as Thomas talks about often, I may as well go up and pay the price, right? I may as well get the player that is like a positive dynasty asset is going to still have value in the off season. If I'm going to spend up,

I'm going to do it, right? And I think it makes a lot of sense based on the market right now to spend up on Devon H-N. You knew exactly where I was going to that. Yeah, I knew it. So look, Devon A-chan is my pick for the RV-1 overall for the rest of the season. I'm aware that's still a slightly hot take. I don't think it will be. We'll give it two more weeks, and I think everyone's going to agree with me. This receiving role is completely unprecedented, pretty much. So just from receiving, A-chan is averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game into a tung-vile-loa-st starts this year.

That's insane. you're essentially if you're playing devon a chan in your lineup right now it is like playing umanrah st brown and jordan mason's rushing fantasy points in one roster spot that's what you're getting and i so kind of the um the knock i guess on han in dynasty circles has been okay well this is potentially an unstable role it's relying on efficiency it's really not at this point that this is he's just going to go out there and run a bunch of wide receiver style routes. We saw last week that it seems like the backfield has just shifted to him being the goal line back now because Rahim Moster can't stop fumbling.

This is just a wide receiver that also gets goal line work that gets a 20% target share when his quarterback is healthy. Yeah, it's insane to me. I am sent, yeah, I'm willing to just go by and worry about it later. yeah, he is my pick for RB1 rest of season overall. Right now, his pace I highly doubt that that's true

FAMR. Yeah, I was going to comment on this. Permar says, I was talking to a perma. Yeah. I highly doubt that that's the case. I'm totally with you, Ryan, on the H-Chan case.

I do think he would be my pick for RB1 overall rest of season if you had to pick one player. I would be very surprised if you can't get Devon H-A-N. I'm actively trying to. He's always been a player that people have been one foot in, one foot out on because of the outlier nature of his deployment and his size.

And so I, like, I don't think that you're going to have to actually pay Bejean-Bri's prices to go and get Devon A-Chance. I think, like, you're going to have to pay up. But I would suspect he is a guy that you'll always be able to get if you're willing to pay a high enough price for. Yeah. He's like Bucky Irving and a. first on keep trade cut right now and i'm totally willing to add first on a contending team to

a bucky earring to go up it's funny it's funny that this is the player that we decide to talk about so i went to dynasty daddy and i looked up some trades because we're actually getting ready to do more trades on the market report podcast and i'm kind of blown away at some of them tray benson josh downs in a second for devon a chan this is all start 10 two quarterback etc etc Devon A. Chan, Tyrone Tracy, and a first. Like Khalil Shakir and Achan for a first and a second. Two first for A. Chan. He's very getable, right?

Obviously, you're not going to get him from every manager, but he's not like an impossible player to go and get. I'm trying to move him in one of Cam's leagues on a team that I'm just, I know I'm middling and I got to send him away. And someone goes, I'm willing to overpay for A-chan. And I was like, why don't you send me what you think that is? Because I think you and I have a different understanding of what overpaying is.

And he sent me Tankdale and Bucky Irving. And I was like, that can't be what the price is. And surprisingly enough, it's not that far off. You just said Bucky and a first. A lot of people have Tankdale still as a first value. So I get why he sent it. It's still off for me. I think that's a bad structure for a trade.

But I don't think he's impossible to get. This is a, you need to quote, fake overpay scenario. And I definitely think you can get them on your roster. It's just, you can't get them from someone who's like in second place. You got to have the right scenario to go and get them.

Like the team I'm talking about, I am in, I'm in seventh place. I'm a game out of the playoffs, but my points four is not worthy of where I'm at. So I know it's time to sell because you don't want to be laying in the bed of mediocrity.

You want to be on one side of the fence or the other, and I need to get the asset. So definitely is acquireable per Mar 100%, maybe not in your leagues, which then that take may not be for you, but definitely possible in a lot of leagues. It just needs the right look. We say don't trade a guy who has five running backs

and two receivers are running back for one of his receivers, you know, type stuff. Actually look at what they need. and where they're at and you'll be able to make something work. So I like that pick. I don't think you're wrong. I think Scott Barrett has a new term for someone like H.N. That he's dropping on the School of Scott podcast tomorrow.

But I loved it when I heard it. So I can't wait. Can't wait for a new Scott Barrett coined phrase. I'm going to go to Lucas next. Lucas, who do you got that you're trading for right now? So I'm staying in Miami, actually. And I'm going with Jalen Wattel. Maybe this is just

to hang on to a bad pick in the off season. Even I'm about to give up on Waddle, man. You can very much get that fucking guy. Yep. But looking at him, he has had a massive change in ADP. He is going about the first pick in the sixth round according to Dynasty Data Labs, which is, I believe, three rounds lower

than where he was going in the off season. So that's just massive change there. meaning that he is definitely going to be available in leagues. Most teams who are counting on him to be one of their two wide receivers have been missing that production so far this season, meaning that they're probably at the bottom of their standings, probably willing to move off a player like that. And he's still only 26 years old.

Nothing about his profile has changed this season except for the person who's been throwing him the ball for the majority of the season. But we have to have back. First two weeks, they're still getting the offense flowing again. And he does have a big target competition right now with Evan A. Chan. So we'll see how that ends up playing it's out. I do think that the upside is there and he is extremely getable.

And the reason why his value is going down right now isn't because of him. It's because of situation. And that can change instantly. We could see him go off just for a tear as you look over the rest of the season. And I mean, week one, he did what we were expecting, five for five, one hundred and nine yards. And he only has one touchdown so far this season. I believe those numbers are definitely going to start to go up.

So that's why I'm buying him. I'm buying low. And once again, we don't talk about, you know, players to buy a low on. But this is like a huge window right now for you to try to go and acquire some Waddle shares, especially if you don't have any. It is rare that a player like Waddle is, you know, so readily available. like he's a fourth round ADP. Now I have been team Fade Waddle

forever. I didn't like him in round two. I didn't like him in round three. I've been right on this Fade Waddle thing for four years at his cost. I'm finally at a point where I'm more okay to acquire, but his price hasn't dropped that much. I think it's a kind of a fake,

but I think a lot of people will still have the sunk cost in terms with Waddle. But let's talk about it so from today went and searched some trades here we've got dalton kincade and jalen wattle for marvin harrison jrison junior that doesn't sound like cheap waddle to me you've got a 25 first in jalen wattle that also doesn't sound like cheap waddle to me um we have got jelan waddle in a first for rashi and a second that one i actually don't mind terribly but like this doesn't sound like cheap waddle to me maybe there is waddle out there that is cheap but

pretty fake cheap in my opinion. Like I would like to move them, but even I'm sitting here myself, like what would I actually move them for? And at this point, I'm pretty much, I'm ready to go get Jacoby Myers in a second for Waddle right now.

Like, I'm ready. Like, I'm gonna believe in this Jacoby Myers thing and just get the second and get the production. I don't believe in with Jacob Myers. Jacob Myers is who he is, which is like he is good enough that anytime he is the top target, earning wide receiver on a team, he can handle it and he will earn a bunch of targets.

And he's not a dynamic enough player to demand to be the target hog when a more dynamic player shows up. But like for the moment, he's basically back with what he was in New England, which is he's the guy and he can withstand and withhold up to a 56% target share. So, you know, good, good for Jacoby. Yeah, the wall stuff is interesting. I too kind of agree that it hasn't, the price hasn't gone down quite as much as my perception of him has gone down.

And I think that's mostly because last year, his underlying metrics were still great, and he wasn't scoring, and that was mostly due to lack of touchdowns, and it was due to in-game injuries and a bunch of other stuff, which is why I kind of caught in on it the first time this year.

But, I mean, now the underlying stuff sucks. I didn't really care that much about anyone's underlying data in this offense without Tua, because the offense was just so bad as a whole, and, like, there was no exceptions to that. But, you know, a very small sample, But we now have three and a half games for the healthy Tua. And what we've seen basically is that it's remained, you know, A-Chann's receiving role has increased exponentially.

And that has come largely at the expense of Tyree Kill and Jill and Waddle, and Jill and Waddle especially. But Tyree Kill is also a drastically different usage profile than he was last year. I mean, he was earning like almost 40% targets per outrun last year. He's come way down. Waddle's come way down and obviously had a lower baseline to come down from because they're actually using ancillary pieces more than they were last year. Like Johnny Smith is getting more work than any of the third guys got last year. So then you add in A-chan getting really prioritized.

And, you know, what used to happen was that basically every single, you know, wide receiver target was going to Waddle and Tyree Kill. And that's still kind of mostly true because there's not really any other wide receivers getting work. But there's just way fewer wide receiver. targets. This whole thing is running through running backs and tight ends right now. So yeah. Yeah, it's just rough. Long term, I'm still fine with Waddle because we've seen enough that I still am remarkably confident he's good, but I don't think we're going to get much this year. I don't know. He's going to be more than a wide receiver three. Yeah. And just to put some

numbers to what you're saying, Jacob, in Tua starts this year, running backs and tight ends are getting 54% of the dolphins targets. Last year, it was 32% for running backs and tight ends, 67% for wide receivers. So yeah, they've just completely shifted kind of how they're running this offense. And it seems like that's what they're okay with. Just like hearing from some like what the beat guys are saying, they think that this is kind of working where teams are selling out to stop the deep threat, Tyree kill.

And A-chan is going in and just taking advantage of what opens. up underneath. And yeah, kind of my issue with Waddle is, I think Waddle's a great player. If you want to buy him in Dynasty because he's this great dynamic player and you want good dynamic players on your roster, I think that's fine. But I will say at any point, what you're never throwing, you're never designing a play to go downfield to Jalen Waddle when you could go downfield to Tyree Kill. And you're also never designing like a screen to get some easy yak or whatever for Jalen Waddle when you could do that for Devon A-chan. So the way I put it in five stats to know this week is what,

Waddle is like that he's the jack of all trades and the master of none in this offense. Like somebody else just does everything he does a little bit better and it's just kind of iced him out at this point. So yeah, I'm not expecting the production to get any better this year. So maybe you want to buy two months down the road from now if you're a believer in the Waddle talent profile, which I would. would say I am. But yeah, it's pretty, it's pretty rough here.

He's in a difficult spot. If there's one glimmer of hope that I would add, it's that the team that they've played in the games that two has played, Buffalo twice, Jacksonville and Arizona. All of these are teams that funneled targets systematically towards running backs and tight ends. Jacksonville plays an extremely high rate of man coverage. Their linebackers are a disaster in coverage. typically they've been getting eaten alive by checkdowns all year long and a lot of matchups. Buffalo, one of the strongest perimeters in the NFL.

So you just don't really see teams be able to beat them on the outside. And so they're forced into taking what they give you in the inside. They sell out to stop the deep ball too. Exactly. And then Arizona is a team that most teams just run all over and don't really pass that much. So if you were, so like if this is a small sample mirage, that would be the reason I would give is that they've played a lot of matches. that are more conducive to playing small ball and less to their big wide receivers on the outside. Maybe that shifts, but I don't think it's entirely that.

Yeah, I agree. Let me ask you some interesting question because I just did a ranking team just did an update on the dynasty ranks at fantasy points.com. I struggled with what to do with Waddle because I was just constantly like, oh, man, I think I prefer this. Oh, man, I actually think I prefer this. So he's sitting at wide receiver 24 for me right now in terms of where my rankings are. And that felt really disrespectful. But then I got into a conversation with Buck about Cedric Tillman. And I was like, man, if you're believing in this Cedric Tillman kind of breakout and you look at where he's at Keefe Tray Cup, which is like wide receiver 36, I mean, you want to talk about a swap with possible pluses on top and you want to replace that production for a breakout player.

he's at that point now where I kind of want to do something like that but that might just be my frustration so I don't know I'm not going to act crazy on it but it's it's something to monitor if Tillman keeps producing but I also don't think I also don't think you're going to get it I don't think you can even get that deal done right now right so what what deal Tedrick Tillman for like Waddle I don't think you're even getting that deal actively what right you can you You're saying you couldn't trade which way. I don't think you can get Tillman for Waddle off a team that's rostering Tillman

and putting them in their lineups every week. Okay, I will, I have a little shitload of Tillman and I will offer. I know you do. I actually almost, I actually almost sent you. Right. Yeah, I'm just saying like, I'll get back. You know how, you know what, you know what I say like people that are producing at that rate for like a breakout or just putting up 18 to 20 points per game in a,

a situation where it doesn't look like that's going to change. People are like way more hesitant to give those points up. So I just find interesting that initial conversation was like a tank Dell. And I don't think you could trade tank Dell to and get Cedric Tillman right now, not at their cost. I don't think you get the plus. Is this Syracilman loved that much? Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Let me finish.

I don't think you could get the plus required based on what their perceived value is. terms of the where he's ranked on these sites so if you look at like keep trade cut i think tank dell is still like wide receiver 27 or wide receiver 26 and cedar tilman is wide receiver 36 like you would need like a second and a little bit more on top to go and get tank dell with how del has been i don't think someone's clicking that button if tillman is scoring them 18 points per game does that make sense that's how i'm looking at it not a one for one swap because i'm not an egoist that needs to like do that swap to like have a player take but when you look at like what the market is telling you you should be able to get

I don't think you can get that deal done right now I buy that I buy that right so with that being said Jacob who do you got for a actually did I legitimately almost sent you tankedel for Tillman today because you have him in a league with no name and I was like close I might need a receiver there but we'll see I feel a little less bullish on the tank del take because I do the Waddle take, by the way. I value Waddle differently than I value Tink. Well, for sure.

Anyway, my guy would be the guy that's on the cover of the episode. Drake May is the guy that I think everybody should try to trade for right now. We can have a discussion at some point whether or not we think he will be a good value in round one of startups, but I just think that that is an episode

in the future of our podcast. Like he currently, maybe your scoring settings last week had him at like 19.4. I don't really know. Quarterback sporting is very variant league to league. But in the average quarterback settings of leagues that I play in, he has started and completed three games,

left one with a concussion. In the three games that he completed, he's been over 20 points in all of them. He very likely would have been over 20 points in the one that he left early since he already had a rushing touchdown and left about half from the first half. He ran for over 90 yards this week. He's been running like crazy every single week.

He ran like crazy in college. People didn't believe in it because it's woke. And at this point, I just think people at some point are going to have to see, wow, pretty crazy that he's leading a semi-efficient offense with no offensive line and no receivers. Right. Like, he is scoring points better than Patrick Moines is scoring points, as Tom would happily point out. He's scoring points comparably to the vast majority of these round one starting quarterbacks. And you start to look around and it's like, well, you're sorry. a trade that I just made, right? This one has a high degree of volatility to it, obviously. But I'm

like, we already knew from college he ran more than Caleb Williams. We have seen in the NFL that he runs more than Caleb Williams. We should be very, very confident that he will continue to run more than Caleb Williams going forward. So then the case of Caleb Williams is, like, if we think Caleb Williams' situation is still as good as we thought it was in the preseason, then that dude sucks. If he doesn't suck, then the situation isn't that great yet. But in that case, we can't then say, well, I like Caleb Williams way more than May because of his situation. You have to pick one, right? Either the situation is bad and he's going to be fine, or the situation is fine and he's just bad. But it's one of the two. And I would say,

I value what we've seen in the NFL more than we value the prospect profile. And I kind of thought that they were on the same level as prospects anyways. To the degree that I had Caleb ranked higher was mostly out of deference for the opinions of people who I think are smarter than people. But in terms of what we see in the NFL, May has impressed me a lot more as a real-life quarterback, and he's definitely going to run more. And so I think he's the better bet of those rookies. And then he start to look around and you go, well, who do I trust more as a real-life player between Drake May and Kyler Murray?

Because they also run kind of a similar amount, actually. And then you start getting into it. And you're like, well, if I like Dre better than Kyler, and I like Dre better than Caleb, it's like, well, then why don't I like him better than the other pocket quarterbacks like Justin Herbert or maybe Joe, like you start getting up the list. And I think that that's a discussion that provided he keeps playing the way that he's playing is going to happen eventually. And maybe that's a discussion that doesn't quite happen until he gets his weapons.

But he already looks like he's like an average NFL quarterback playing in the worst possible situation as a rookie. So like I have such a high degree confidence at this point that he's going to start in this league for a very long time. And I have a high degree of confidence he's going to run the whole time while he's doing it. So I think that's a guy where if you want a surefire round one startup type quarterback, you just go pay for him now before he gets to that point. Yeah, I absolutely love it.

I feel like you've kind of given me two pads here. It's like which way Western man? Am I going to just add some more fuel to the Drake Mayfire? Or am I instead going to go shit on Caleb Williams? So I guess I'll do both. Caleb Williams has played the easiest schedule of any quarterback in the league so far. Six of his eight games have been against defenses that are top 12 in schedule adjusted allowed to quarterbacks. And he's, yeah, the fantasy production hasn't been there.

He hasn't looked good. Yeah, we're talking about this Chicago offense is like a disaster offense, which, as you said, is very funny, given what we thought about this situation and these weapons in the preseason. Meanwhile, Drake May is just per four full quarters hanging like 59 rushing. yards per four full quarters. I don't think he looks perfect as a passer. Like he, I feel like no other quarterback I've ever watched like just kind of weirdly

dances around in the pocket like he does. Like he's doing like weird stuff with his feet constantly. But he can make the throws. You see it. And yeah, I mean, I'm happy as a Patriots fan. And I'm really happy as a Drake Mae Dynasty manager for sure. So yeah,

I think he obviously should be valued over Caleb Williams at this point. And I agree with you. I think like the value does shoot up as soon as he gets a real wide receiver. That's like when the market enthusiasm is going to come around. But yeah, until then we got a good buying opportunity. TD wants to know how much is too much. Like what's the, if you think he's going in round one, you're what, sending Herbert? You're sending Kyler.

Well, the whole point of why I would trade for him now is because I think that's where we're going. but it doesn't seem to be where we are yet. Right. So the point would be to try and take it. So the point would be to try and take advantage of the lag that I think is. So, I mean, maybe don't send Kyler this week because he scored like four points. But I would send like Kyler after he scores not four points next week and see if I could get May in a second. Or, you know, you could do a sit.

I mean, I sent Caleb for May straight up. And I would do that in any league where I have Taylor. I would legitimately recommend doing that. If you think you can get a two or you can get a three or something on top, that's for you to know in your league. But I would be prepared to do that deal straight. I think that that's just the right deal. In terms of if you're doing Burrow or Herbert,

I would probably want a little bit of a plus. I also think Herbert has some real positive momentum going his way. I mean, it didn't happen. Everything that I thought was going to happen this season with Herbert is eventually coming true. It just took like four weeks to get there. Like they are now passing at a top five PROE in the NFL. And it's going well. So the like,

the Jim Harbaugh is going to recognize that he has a great quarterback. That's not Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick theory has happened. It just didn't happen until like week six. But it's happening now. He was also hurt the first month of the season. Like he came in with a foot injury from training camp. I messed up his ankle in week two. Yeah.

So I looked, I went and looked at some trades. This is what I've been doing. We got Caleb in a second for Drake May and a one. so that's pretty on par with what Jacob is saying. You got Drake May for Roma Dunesay and Gino Smith. Drake May for Bo Nix and Jerry Judy from two days ago. We got Naji Tankdale and a third for Drake May in a second.

Why anything was sent on top of that is kind of insane. But he is acquirable. He is getable. These are real trades. We got Drake May 2 first for Lamar Jackson. Like we've got, so there are some big boy ones that you could possibly go and get. we see the questions in the chat. Normally we are like all about the chats.

We are on a tight ship today. And I know that when we start getting into the chat, we're going to be here for an hour and a half. We love you guys. Send us the trade questions. We'll try to get there, but I don't know if we will. Sean says,

I had an offer for Tillman for Evans and he said he declined. So there is love for Tillman out there. Yeah. 100%. My pick, Jacob actually ties in to yours. He is another player that's on the cover. It's J.J. McCarthy.

You want to talk about a phenomenal value right now. It's J.J. McCarthy. If you're looking at what Sam Donald is doing, and I'm sorry, but half the time Sam Donald is playing, he looks like the pumpkin that we thought he would be. But that offense is so good. It is almost impossible to fail. And then you look at what McCarthy brings,

which is timing throws, accuracy, and enough mobility. I'm sorry, but watching Darnold run, and he looks pretty quick, to be honest with you, that sneaky athletic stereotype exists with him right there, him to his giant head. But J.J. McCarthy can do that. He's still an athletic quarterback,

so escaping, getting out, and running a little bit, still something that he can do. He's accurate with a strong arm. what we saw in the preseason to me is really close to what I think we're going to get on a regular basis in that Vikings offense. And talk about cheap. Like he is still a fairly cheap asset to go and buy, especially if someone has him sitting on their IR that needs points because DAC got hurt. Or they just,

they need a receiver more than they need, you know, something else to, to say the least. He is definitely acquireable. We got, oh, that trade,

I don't love this one. It's J. J.J. McCarthy and Anthony Richardson for Herbert. That one I wouldn't use as the measuring stick personally. But you've got J.J. McCarthy in a second.

For Amari Cooper and Alvin Camara. You've got J.J. McCarthy for James Cook. Jaden Fraud Reed for J.J. McCarthy. You've got Gino Smith and Amari Cooper for J.J. McCarthy and Eric All from two days ago. also real bummer about Eric All in his ACL.

Loved Eric All. That's a giant setback. Tyrone Tracy and J.K. Dovins for J.J. McCarthy and Eric All. You got Patrick Mahomes for McCarthy. Ike and a one. That is a clear, clear selling team because that's even low for me selling Patrick Mahomes. Damn. You got McCarthy and a 26th first for Baker Mayfield in a second.

Like he is an acquireable player. So to me, you want to talk about a player that could be a top 10 dynasty quarterback. And around two or three, Dynasty quarterback, as early as next year, you're looking at them. And I got, we got them in the fifth or sixth round in the startup that we did in season. Week three or four, we did the startup. We got him in like the fifth or sixth round. He's still acquirable because he's not playing. He's not scoring points.

And I'm sorry, but they're not resigning Donald and Wally Pipping their first round pick this year. Because the whole, again, I feel like we got to say it again. The thing with, with Trey Lance was Brock Purdy's contract, made that possible. Yeah. Sam Donald's not getting less than 20 to 25 million this year at the rate he's going. They're not keeping him for that. It's just not going to happen unless something horrendous happens to J.G.

McCarthy's recovery, which we wouldn't love. Brett Whitefield liked J.J. McCarthy more than Caleb Williams. We haven't been able to see J.G. McCarthy to see that come to fruition, but we've seen enough from Kayla Williams to make me think maybe that was actually possible. We don't know. We can't say for certain with this year, obviously, but there's enough for me to want to go out and acquire even more. Now, granted, I have quite a bit already because I was the J.G. McCarthy guy on this pod.

He's a guy that you want to talk. If you're a contender, you can get him. If you're a rebuilder, you can go out and get him. If you're a mid-tier team that wants to start tearing down, there's an opportunity for you to go and get him. He is a player that you can get in every single scenario for your dynasty teams and just stack him. on your roster, on your bench, on your IR, go and get them.

Go start putting some, some feelers out for them for quarterbacks that are scoring some points. Add on to them, fake overpay. That Gino Smith, Amari Cooper deal is such a smash. I'll do that every single time. So go send somebody scoring points for a potential, not just top 10 quarterback asset. It's something that can be a top 10, top 12 dynasty asset in Super Flex leagues. He's throwing the Justin Jefferson, and it looks real good when. somebody does so somebody please go go get j j mccarthy get back to us and let them know what those

trades look like because i'm interested let us know quick break come back player picks we're getting out of here we're gonna i told you we're keeping this tight we might have time for one question we don't know but we're going to take the break we're going to come back and player picks sit tight those are the four players that we're going and trading for right now black friday is here at ikea and the clock is taking on savings you won't want to miss. Join IKEA family for free today and unlock deals on everything from holiday must-havs to cozy at-home essentials,

all the little and big things you need to make this season shine. But don't wait. Like leftovers at midnight, our Black Friday offers won't last. Shop now at IKEA.ca.ca. Black Friday. Ikea. Bring home to life.

It's been a long, long time since we tried to keep a show at an hour. I feel rushed. I feel panicky. It's weird, but here we are. We're going to get it done for you guys. Again, normally we are very much the answering the comments. We go back and forth with you guys.

We get it. When this podcast is over, if you have a trade question, I'll make you this promise. When this is over and on YouTube, if you take that question and put it in the comments, I will sit here all night and answer them. I will make you guys a top priority. You put them in there. I'll answer the questions. So how about how does that sound?

And as for thoughts on Kincaid, that's next week's episode. Not going to want to miss that one. Talk about a disappointment big time. And Sean says send a middling QB like TLA for him. You're not sending a middling quarterback like Trevor Lawrence for Drake May. I don't think you're getting that deal done. But Jacob, I will say this.

I think Trevor Lawrence is about to be a priority buy because I do not think Doug Peterson and Press, and Press Taylor are staying on staff. And you're telling me that a Kingsbury, who we might make fun of a lot for being a horrendous head coach, that man has an offense that scores points. So you're telling me there's an opportunity for a good offensive play caller next year. River Lawrence is almost a priority by.

So I just want to point that out. My reign of hating on Lawrence might end sometime soon. Let's get the player picks in. new here and you're unfamiliar with the game. We may be a dynasty show, but we like bragging rights. We like saying someone is better than the other. And right now, Jacob, you are running away with the ability to say that you are better than everyone else, but it's not over yet.

What we do is we take a quarterback outside of the top 15, a running back outside of the top 15, a wide receiver outside of the top 30, and a tight end outside of the top 12. We take their points. We tally it up. And at the end of the year, the winner picks the other host beverages for the live draft coverage from the NFL draft. We are on after the main crew. We break down every dynasty aspect of the draft. We have some fun.

If you watch last year, people saw me freak out about Tyrone Tracy Jr. And Isaac Gorendo. And look, we got one good game out of Garando. And I'm happy I can live with that. I got the plan in my lineup one time. And then obviously Tyrone Tracy, is now with Dynasty Darling across the space. So you're going to want to tap in to that.

But to get there, we must first somehow try to make a comeback from Jacob because he is beating our asses. He has 591.66 PPR points. Lucas is in second. He's catching up with 415.16.16. Ryan is at 389.24. And I am in last.

After leading the first two to three weeks at 383.7.72 points. This is embarrassing, but we are going to try to make a comeback. I noticed only recently that Jacob put a note in here that says, I'm closer to doubling Tom's score than he is to catching me. I really appreciate that. I thank you for that reminder, Jacob, every single week. Last week we had a pretty good week.

Coleman dropping the ball on the goal line really hurt me. And Will Disley doing his Will Disley thing didn't help. we did get Herbert right, which brings me back to this week. I'm taking Justin Herbert, Tony Pollard, Joanne Jennings and Hunter Henry. Hunter Henry being like the second best option for Drake May every week. Makes me feel pretty good about that. Juan Jennings coming back.

They have no, well, they have Debo, but we saw Jennings absolutely pop off earlier in the year when he got to take on a bigger role. So I like that. Tony Pollard has just been good, period, every game, regardless of how bad the Tennessee Titans offense is. and I'm taking Justin Herbert because I feel like that's like a free as as Jacob used to say on free what was it free squares that we uh Justin Herbert's a free square in this uh

post top 15 situation there's my DFS lingo for the week um I'm taking Justin Herbert there Lucas who you got all right so I have a cracked 400 which means Jacob's not the only person who has been in 400 this season so I'm really really excited about that and you all were calling Michael Pitman Jr. to flop last week, and boy, was I wrong? It did flop. So I'm going to try to correct that a little bit this week. Going with C.J. Stroud. J.K. Dobbins.

Going with Keon Coleman, trying to write where Thomas went wrong last week. And Mr. Reliable himself, Zachert, who I think has been my most picked player so far this season, aside from maybe Khalil Shakir. So that's going to be my lineup here for what is this week 10? Yeah, we can. The most nap inducing tight end in the league, but he still just continues to get points, which I got to tell you.

Give me those seven points, baby. I know. Just a little bonus thing. I'm almost concerned about Ben Sinat at this rate, like at least like a little bit. The guy just can't get a target. I don't know. I'm not concerned,

but I'm like a little, you know, like I'm, it's enough to give me like Theo Johnson is getting targets and run in the offense that he was drafted in. So it's a little, I'm just a little, just a little worried. Ryan?

Yeah, so I'm going with Drake May, since we just spent a whole episode talking about how awesome he is. Kareem Hunt, who actually, since he joined the Chiefs, leads the NFL in goal line carries, which is a fun little fact. Amari Cooper. It should have been Kelsey. Amari Cooper, just trying to help out my own bet. against Jacob from a couple weeks back that I'm feeling worse and worse about every week as we go by. Let's get him on the field, please. And then Tassum Hill, who I feel great about.

I think Taysam Hill is going to outscore all your tight ends this week. He's like, come on, he's like 45% route share. He averages like 14 points over his career when that happens. Yeah. There's no one else. It's going to keep happening. It is going to keep scoring points. We didn't, we didn't mention it.

Like, that's a great. lineup of players. We didn't mention it. Michael Thomas lost his goddamn mind. Oh, that was amazing. Twitter. I have, I half thought it was amazing, but also half thought it was corny. Like, there was a little bit of 50-50 in there that I thought

it was. Definitely embarrassing for him, amazing in terms of my enjoyment getting paid off. Yeah, sorry, no, was it, was not defending Michael Thomas, but yeah. Jacob, who do you got? Yeah, I got Danny Dimes, because he plays

Carolina Panthers, who just give it up left and right. I've got Chuba coming back the other way. We'll probably see Jonathan Brooks this week, but I don't think he's going to play all that much in week one. And Chubas played very well. I think he is at least a viable starter for the next few weeks. Roma Dunesay, who quietly has, I think, emerged over the last two weeks post by as the wide receiver for the Bears with the most valuable role, certainly the most three-level role and excited to play him this week. And then Johnny Smith, I don't know.

it's tight end man. Ryan's taste and pick is easily the best one of all of ours and I just didn't think to make it. But yeah, I don't know. Hopefully he catches a couple balls. I love that. That's the show. That's going to do it.

That's it. Two things I just want to say before we get out of here. One, again, like, subscribe, Dynasty Points podcast. We mentioned all that in the beginning. Two, if anyone missed it, Skip Bayliss's account got hacked. It's one of the funniest things I've seen on Twitter in a long time. That screenshots are out there go and look at it. And I want to shout out.

And a player that I was excited about, not this last year, but the year before for getting drafted on the live draft show, Tavius Robinson might be the only defensive player we really talk about. I want to give him a shout out. He had two sacks the last week, number 95 on the Baltimore Ravens from my hometown, Guelph, Ontario. So shout out to you, stellar performance, hometown boy. I may never get to say those words again for an NFL. player. So we got to shout out our hometown guys. Go Guelph, go Guelph Griffins. That's what's up.

A little CIS. We have college football too, sort of. That's it. That's the show. So obviously you're going to be locked in to Jacob's column. Think about thinking that link is in description as always. Ryan Heath's extensive work here at fancy points.com. Lucas Gilbert and all the war articles. I just released an article

with Herms about analyzing your dynasty rosters. Him and I co-wrote an article that's on FantasyPoint.com right now. Go and watch all of that stuff. it's obviously a huge day. So try to enjoy your day, enjoy your evening. And remember that fantasy football is fun. And it's a great escape.

So keep that in mind. Check in on your loved ones, most definitely. Even if you're not sure that it need it, remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose in your best days are always spent tilting. Good night and be safe, everybody.