Fantasy Football Daily - Dynasty Moves To Make (Or Not) | Dynasty Points

Episode Date: November 27, 2024

Dynasty Points is covering players you should buy or sell in the current landscape of the 2024 dynasty fantasy football season. Use promo code - YouTube25 for 25% of your subscription Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Listen to the podcast here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts Thinking About Thinking Substack - https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/p/lets-think-about-thinking Where to find us: http://twitter.com/DynastyPts http://twitter.com/ElNostraThomas http://twitter.com/JakobSanderson http://twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath http://twitter.com/LGilbertFF FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts @BDGEFantasyFootball @BDGEDynastyFantasyFootball @fantasypros @FantasyFootballToday Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I'm Thomas Dipple. That's Jacob Sanderson for the Thanksgiving edition of Dynasty Points. We have decided to dive deep into the debates of player takes. I am finally laying to rest the argument of JSN. I am fully going to combat the anti-JSN conversation tag that I have had placed upon me. We solve the debate and answer every question tonight. We are covering all of the hot ticket players moving up or moving down dynasty markets tonight in big, expanded conversations. We're going to talk about Bucky Irving.

We're going to talk about Chase Brown. We're going to talk about Bryce Young, back from the dead and more, all on Dynasty Points. Tuesday night, we're back. It's Dynasty Points. Lots to talk about tonight doing something. We don't often do, but with trade season, kind of, still in the mix moving about. We feel like it's time to kind of move off of just solely talking about trades.

Lots of things have happened, lots of shifts. Lots of players have gained and lost value. So it's time to dive into some players that we need to make decisions on in Dynasty with buying or selling their narratives, their data, the player itself, and how we go about approaching that. So that's what we're going to do today. Of course, I'm Thomas Dipl.

I'm hosting this bad boy as always. Joining me as always, Jacob Sanderson, Lucas Gilbert, Ryan Heath. The crew is back. First off, Happy Thanksgiving to our Americans. We are a 50% Canadian crew

and a 50% American crew. So shout out to all of you guys. With that being said, it is the Thanksgiving season, which means it is the Black Friday season, and that means you can come and see what all the hype is about. As a special,

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That is a 10,000 sub gain over this last year. So we love and appreciate you guys. That is just so massive for us. It really makes doing all of the work that we do here worth it. So shout out to. all of you let's lock in let's talk about what we're going to do today let's settle some things we see double d here he had a great question so we're going to hit that question we tend to do that kind of in between some segments today we're going to do it in between some players

as always tron oh dave is here in the chat as well let's dive into it we're we have about five to six players usually that bleeds over into some random conversation that we are going to decide if we are buying or selling and seeing what we're going to do with them. So I think we should kick it off. Ryan, we're going to start with someone that you wanted to talk about. We kind of went back and forth on this in the Dynasty Points podcast group chat a little bit. There really is only one problem with this guy right now.

And it's like been a problem even in college. and it's driving us all nuts. But I think you have a great case here. Let's hear what you have. Yeah, so I want to make the case for Trey McBride as the dynasty tight end 1A with Brock Bowers. I guess to go back to- When you say 1A, does that mean above Bowers?

Or do you actually mean 1-B? Yeah, I guess I actually mean 1B. But like, you know, like the entire tier-down argument tier down from Sam Leporto that we had all of last offseason. I think it's in that kind of, yeah, it's in that realm for me where I could be convinced to tear down from a Bauer's to a McBride for something not super, for anything significant. I would do it, essentially.

And here's why, looking at McBride's stats this year, has out-targeted Marvin Harrison, 76 to 59. in their games together. Leads the position, 26% target share. That's the highest any tight end has had over a full season in the Fantasy Points data era. That includes those insanely winning seasons that we got out of Kelsey,

out of Mark Andrews over the last few years. 2.46 yards per outrun out of Trey McBride this year. That's better than Kelsey or Andrews have done in any season since 2021. one. Obviously, there's one problem with him, as Thomas alluded to, which is that he has not scored a single receiving touchdown all year. And so naturally, when I see something like that, mushing and double recovery, though. Yes, he did have those. Yes, thank God. But naturally, with something like that, I always want to look a little bit deeper, right? Because there are some tight ends that are just coming off the field in the red zone, right? Dalton Kincaid notably has had some

issues with that at different points in his career. That hasn't been the case with McBride by our expected touchdown model stuff. He should have scored about three touchdowns through the air this year. So yeah, he's three expected touchdowns or three touchdowns below his expectation for his volume. And that does include like where on the field the targets are coming from and all of that, right. So yeah, he's just been insanely efficient, ignoring the touchdown piece. He's somehow about one fantasy point per game over his volume expectation, despite scoring no touchdowns, which is totally nuts. He is scoring about the same as Brock Bowers is right now with arguably a lot better target competition. So yeah, I don't know. What am I missing here? This is just,

Brock Bowers, but a year or two older, producing the same and would be producing more if the touchdowns would come around. And we know who's quarterback is for the foreseeable future, which is always a little bit helpful as well. I think, well, Keith says Kyler is doing a bit. Like, I'm, I got to almost be inclined to agree. Like, there was a play not that long ago. Trey McBride was wide open in the end zone. Like, they had everyone beat out on the play fake he's wide open Kyler has a clean pocket and just starts dancing around and then

overthrows him into the like the fifth row I was losing my mind there was a play last week where McBride is doing jumping jack showing that Kyler Murray is open in the end zone it just doesn't feel like he wants to rip it into the end zone

and turn the ball over like he just feels like he's playing safe in the red zone which is brutal if you're a big body a tight end. I love your take on the 1A and 1B scenario. Keep in mind that aside from another player we're going to talk about, no one else really has benefited as much from the being behind two minute drill off coverage merchanting. Then Brock Bowler, like other than Brock Bowers is one other guy. Brock Bowers benefits from it a lot. And I thought that was kind of interesting.

So how they're getting deployed is both interesting. The thing is the scores points. Last year, Trey McBride was, what, a wide receiver, five if he had played wide receiver, and he's just kind of doing it again. I love this call. I agree with you on the call. He's someone that I'm willing to pay for. Like, I'm, I'm just paying his price. I'm going to pay his price.

He seems like an actual difference maker. He's a couple touchdowns away from just being what we wanted from Kelsey. That's really everything you just said to me screams that, yeah, we're just a couple touchdowns away from him basically giving you the Kelsey production. Yeah. And double being in the chat asking do you trade Bowers for McBride? Your second is it effectively a free second? Yeah, I think that that's exactly where I would go.

You'd take McBride in it too. Yeah. Yeah, I'd take McBride on the two. That's like, that's probably like the floor of what I'm willing to say, okay, like is it even worth my time to try to get this? So yeah, that that's the, that's, how I would approach it. Especially if you're not a playoff team and you just have value on that.

Interesting. Yeah. I mean, I would rock with the Brock side on that. I think both these guys, I agree with most of what you said. I think both these guys are targets. I just,

man, if I was going to trade Brock Bowers for anything, I don't know. It just feels like it would need to be like the best trade offer I've ever seen in my entire life, not like McBride in a second. I think for a couple reasons. I mean,

That's not because of McBride's bad, though. Absolutely not. I'm not going to argue like anti-McBride. This specific point I disagree with, which is the Bowers aspect. And that's largely because I think Bowers is like there's certain players that have a memetic quality to them where they do become just incredibly insulated from the week to week churn. And I think Bowers, when you're that hyped up as a prospect, when you succeed this much and this quickly as a rookie, immediately. He's going to be in that zone now where he's just going to be incredibly insulated. Like I think he could suffer an injury. His value's not going to dip that much. He could have

a few bad weeks. People are going to immediately look for all of the reasons why it's not his fault and not unfairly. I just think he's going to be one of those players where it is going to take a very high bar for the market to turn against him because the sentiment is so positive because of what he did immediately as a rookie. You know, McBride, it's a little bit different. It wasn't quite as high The prospect, obviously a good prospect. Really having this starts to break out second half of year two as opposed to immediately. I don't know the difference between them production-wise going forward is necessarily going to be different than that second. It's just that the ability to trade up to McBride from other pieces I think will always be more plausible than trading up to Bowers.

Whereas trading away Brock Bowers to me kind of feels like you're trading away a resource you can't get back. Like I don't know. It's almost like if you're playing like NBA 2K and he has. have like the five star guys. Do you have the four and a half star guys? And it's like maybe the four and a half star guy and an extra first is actually better for your team. But you can always find a way to trade for the four and a half star guys. Once you let the five star guy go to a CPU, they're literally untradable. You will never get them back on your team. That's my only pushback. Yeah, I think it's, I think that's pretty fair. I went and looked at a couple of players that were been traded for

trade McBride just kind of see where we're at we like to do that we'd like to go to dynasty daddy.com and that link will be in your description down there use them all the time just to kind of get a grasp of when we're talking about what you have to pay to get to players

whether or not you'd have to do a Brockbauer scenario guys want to hear some of the trades that have gone down in November now these are Start 10 Superflex with a point five tight-in premium so exactly down to the bar

of what we play in for the most part. These are some of the deals we got going on here. You've got Trey McBride for Pennix, Iuke, and Jake Ferguson. Yeah, McBride. Like, more hammering the McBride side.

Jacob, cover your ears here, because you're not going to like this one. Greg Dulcich, a 25 second and a 26th first round pick or Trey McBride? I think Dulcich is holding up much of that, but yeah, I would definitely take McBride. Yeah, that's what I mean.

So we're willing to pay the first and a second, which is generally kind of like a kind of a posh price for a tight end. We don't want to pay for. But this is the one that I think comes closest to what Ryan was talking about with the tear down situations that I'm just wearing egg on my face about this entire season. But another tight end that was a part of that conversation was Dalton Kincaid, who has been nothing short of a letdown. we've we've exactly we have got a 251 a 252 and a 263 and Dalton cancade or tray

McBride and a third sorry what were all the picks involved there a 251 and two and a 263 and cancade or McBride and a 25 third okay I think I'm taking the fact that there's a third on both sides is weird so it's basically a one a two in in Kincaid for McBride yeah for a three swansel I would pay that for McBride I think if it was a tight and premium league. Yeah. Lucas, why are you taking Kincaid there? I feel like Kincaid still has some insulated value just based off of what he did as a rookie.

The prowess that he had as a prospect coming out and just the ability to buy pieces in a bill's offense where he will be attached to Josh Allen for the foreseeable future. Yes, it's not been the year that people want, but I can definitely see a scenario where you're looking at Trey McBride and don't have a lot. other good pieces on your team and that's a I think a fairly easy move to make where you're still getting somebody who's a nice young player who can meet with whatever your team's timeline is plus you're getting picks to build on and they're probably not you know the most glamorous picks in the world because somebody if you're making that trade that person should be really high up in

the standings if they're willing to pay that I mean they they might not be jacob you're just saying that you would pay that for McBride so that could come from anywhere that could just be base picks. Right. But yeah, I do like at least the structure of that trade. I think that that's a trade where we talk about all the time of you make deals that will work for both teams, make both teams better. And I don't think the difference and values that crazy for that deal not to work. I look at it like this where like Ryan said, we're a couple touchdowns away from basically Pete Kelsey, which Jacob, when we talked about Brock Bowers, you said that's the only thing I care about. Right. Like that's what I care about in my tight. ones. Well, what if it was like prime Travis Kelsey that you were getting when he was setting these records for tight end and you had to move another young prospect athletic tight end attached to a decent offense like a Mike Gisicki when he was, you know, his sophomore and it's a first and a second. You're looking back on it. It's a little revisionist, but this is kind of where I see this deal at this point is why I bring it up. I'm just smashing for that Travis Kelsey side and winning. Right? Like that's, that's what I want to do. And now you're getting that

as a 25-year-old tight end. So I see where Lucas is coming from as well. It does kind of load you up with firepower and from a total value cost scenario. It's fine. I far the most fair value. That's a high price to pay for McBride. I'm still comfortable paying it.

I mean, part of why I had all these tight ends a bit lower in my rankings coming into the preseason was, in part, we just didn't have sufficient information on all of them, I felt like, to rush out to best case scenario. And obviously,

we've seen some of these guys fall back, right? Really disappointing second seasons out of Leporta, out of Kincaid, pretty disappointing season out of Pitts. So like some of these guys are receding. Then we've seen now, you know, pretty substantial declines out of Kelsey and Andrews. I mean, they've both been starters, but they're a long way off from the Kelsey and Andrews of their primes at this point. And then we've seen Bowers, you know, rush out, prove himself to be everything that we

hoped and dreamed of as a prospect. and we saw McBride come out and confirm that that second half sample last year was not a coincidence. So to me, it's now a situation where not only has been a really impressive year for Bowers and McBride, but we're back to that area of scarcity at the tight end position, which maybe we were always in. We just didn't know exactly who it was that was going to be the one separating. But now it feels like we kind of know it's Bowers, it's McBride, and there's a pretty big gap to anyone else. And when you have that type of environment, that's when I am willing to be. pay those two first plus prices.

Because if you're going to get that level of separation for a long time, I'm in. I mean, that's the scarcity argument. It's just, you know, it's easier to make when all these other tight ends are failing alongside them. You're right. This year has been a separator from that group of that Power 5 group, if you would. This season has kind of been the separator. Like, Titan 3 is basically like George Kittle until he retires at this point.

Like, it's, it is kind of disappointing the rest of the way. The depth for tight end has actually been nice. once we can say that and it actually has manifested but upside is spotty at best um Tyler conklin let me down uh we have one more question we can kind of attach

to this so we'll get to it sad cubs fan shout out uh when does marv's insulation finally start to dip if he continues his pace of 55 843 and 9 already has a little bit people are already getting kind of taking the get off the boat um early train here a little bit.

Jacob, you talked about this with your latte rule, where it's okay to dive off of a prospect early. This is a little too early for me. He's also clearly good, right? He's not a bust. It's just a matter of we don't know how good.

This is a usage issue for me. They do not put him in motion often. They do not use him in the hyper-creative ways that other offenses do. Petzig has been dogged by some of the fantasy point staff kind of vigorously. I think too much for a guy

pretty darn effective offense for a team succeeding anyone's expectations this year. Yeah, it's just his wide receiver pass game. He's very Greg Roman in how he like designs his passing offense where the tight end excels and everyone's going, what are we doing with the wide receivers? So just kind of interesting. But my take would be that I think it actually makes sense.

Like Marvin Anderson broke, I believe it was four. 14 miss tackles in all of college. For comparison sake, Malik Neighbors was 51 in roughly the same amount of games. Like, Marvin Harrison's game isn't really easy buttoned place. Like, he's not a guy who's going to thrive in the screen game

or who's a player that I'm dying to give jet sweeps to. Like, to me, you know, maybe over the course of his career, he becomes a more balanced wide receiver in terms of some of the short area's own stuff. But, like,

he's a long striding. he's a long striding wide receiver who excels in in possession situations and can excel down the field. But I wouldn't say he's really a burner either. To me, he's like a supercharged intermediate receiver. And I think that they're kind of using them in a reasonable enough way. Like maybe you move him around the formation to get him better matchups and stuff. I get all that. But from a broad strokes, like are the ropes that he's running reasonable?

I think, yes, it's just not a great setup for fantasy because he's not going to to get those easy button throws, but I don't think that's really where it's value. To me, if I'm asking from a trying to win NFL games perspective, trying to score points perspective, would I rather sort of force feed Marvin Harrison into more replaceable routes that are more likely to generate PPR scans that Greg Dorch can run just as well? Or would I rather have him command the most coverage running the higher degree of difficulty routes, the routes where when they hit, they're going to hit for bundles of points. but are also probably not going to be there a lot of the time.

I'm content doing that because he's not a guy where I'm looking at it and saying, well, I have to get the ball in his hands. That's not really his game. That's neighbor's game. That's for Marvin, it's more about his ability to be that outside Alpha. And, you know, how many of that style of what,

like, Nico Collins would be the only guy that comes to mind right now. And I think he's more dynamic than Marvin Harrison. But, like, he would be the closest thing that comes to mind is like a traditional old school alpha that is just like a massive fantasy stud. Like Pickens would be an example, but Pickens is another guy where it's like

the talent is probably higher than the fantasy production has been for most of his career. Yeah, he just reads like an AJ Green type receiver to me, which is still good. Ryan, you wrote, if I'm not mistaken, a while ago when they started to change what routes they were running vertically,

there's like a seismic shift in his production per route when they started using more vertical kind of in-breaking, more vertical post routes, and they just don't for some reason do it often enough. I don't know, maybe we see it developing. I do think if this maintains, yeah, his safety net is going to kind of erode away, like the waves crashing upon ashore,

but it's going to be a slow decline. People that drafted him 101 are not letting that guy go, and I got to tell you in leagues that I'm in anyway, all those wide receiver boys that needed quarterbacks because their QB2 was Ryan Tannehill. they still are holding on to that guy hoping trust me for the most part when you got them people are holding onto them so I think you've got some safety here yet

we're gonna take a quick break on the other side of the break we're diving in to the next player that I want to dive into and this one might be might be the biggest one of the night we'll see sit tight on the other side of the break we're diving right back in funny I actually almost hit the wrong button and we almost had to sit through an entire intro again. Don't worry. I'm locked in. Speaking of being locked in, I feel like we have to have a chat.

Not just us, of course, but to our subscribers, to our listeners, we shout out again the most downloaded programs that Fantasy Points right now, still Dynasty Points, both this show and the show that comes out Friday on the Dynasty Points feed and Sunday morning on the Fantasy Points now feed the Market Dynasty Points Market Report, the two most downloaded podcasts at Fantasy Points. So again, shout out to all of you guys tuning in. We get a lot of people that seem to think that we villainize JSN every week. And we don't.

We have been very open and very honest about our opinions, how we feel about them. We've adapted with the market, et cetera, et cetera. But today I feel like it is important that we have. have a real sit down and a deep dive, the deepest dive that I have seen people do. Because Ryan, you and I have seen on Twitter multiple. It's just threads of just points per game. Look, he's an alpha. He does alpha things.

It hasn't always been that way. So I feel like it was important that we really sit there. And with the Fantasy Points Data Suite being free this week, everyone listening will be able to go in and find the same data that we are are using so you know we're not making it up. This is not an attack of bias with JSN. With all that being said, Ryan, you and I, we've talked. We've noticed that in the second and fourth quarters, JSN production goes up. It goes up a lot in the hurry up slash two minute versus off coverage. It's something that you and I, we've both noticed of late. And some of the data backs it up by

quarter. In the first quarter, he has a 102 yards, second quarter, 287, third quarter, just 93 yards on the season, including last week where his only target was a screen attempt that was swatted away. And in the fourth quarter, he's amassed 233 yards. That's good for 52nd, fourth, 67th, and sixth respectively. He is in the top eight in screen yardage in all four quarters, including first in the second quarter and fourth in the first. His yak yardage is unbelievably good

including in the second quarter where 154 of his yardage has come after the catch. Truly insane. What is interesting to me is this first half a dots are 6.5 and 8.5 whereas second half a dots as you and I have talked about a lot is 10.2 and 10.5.

Those two numbers surprise me greatly. He had a 1.1. 8 out in week 12 a 1.7. 6 receptions for 77 yards and 65 of those yards have been yak yards in week 12. Pretty impressive to have that good a day when your first real play doesn't come until 2 minutes and 34 seconds in the second half. I believe that's when it was. Might have been 2.36. Before that he had a catch of 2 yards, a catch that ended up being 11 yards.

That were 7 yards of yak. Ryan, you pointed out his first real route wasn't until a little bit later in that game, but he had the big 40-yard play. And I will say that there is no more iconic duo in fantasy football than JSN screen passes and his knee touching the ground at the three-yard line. This is the new Alman Ross St. Brown in that regard happens. I swear every week. Andy Buckler from the Dynasty Points Market Report also felt like it was time to look

up when the Seahawks were trailing in the fourth quarter because we're like, look, a lot of this seems to be when they are in hurry up mode. They use them like their scat back out of the backfield. JSN ranks when trailing in the fourth quarter, fourth in receptions at 19, fourth in yards at 194, and he is fifth in fantasy points at 51.2. When they need him, they go to JSN when they are down. They also, he's targets per game, 4.1 in that. And now people, well, that's alpha.

That means he's obviously alphaing. Well, Ryan, you have a couple of tweets here that you had put out over his last two productive games with DK Metcalf in the lineup. JSN's A dot is 5.9. Across all games with DK at 7.7. And two games without him, it is 15.3. that is impressive to me.

Let's also note that in week 11, he had a 7.3 a dot when they came back, when D.K. Metcalf was back. So his A dot is all over the place. His usage is all over the place. What can we deduce from all of this information? Well, JSN, it said he's producing. He showed that he can excel in the lead role,

even though it was brief. Keep in mind, they played two games without DK in the one game, he had 180 yards. That was 25% of his yardage, two of his four touchdowns, and 22% of his total fantasy points on the season was that game that he blew up.

Keep in mind, he didn't have a blow-up game in the first game with DK out. He had a very moderate six for a very nice 69. JSN has a very specific role, and in that we cannot deny it. They are obsessed with using this man and underneath routes. Ryan, we looked this up before the show.

His underneath routage hits upper tier in terms of the league. We have seen in two games this year, he has a blow-up potential with that not being the case. We can also deduce that his A-DOT has been inflated because of the big game to certain degrees.

The other part is that when Seattle Seahawks need points and they need to come back, they are looking to JSN. So regardless of the fact that if it is in two-minute drills, which he does eat. He chews up the two minute drill just before when they're driving

at the end of halves. He chews them up. That's clear. We can see that with our eyes. And the data tells us the same thing. What we have with JSN, in my opinion, is a very good wide receiver that is currently sitting at wide receiver 13 just before

Garrett Wilson, just before Brian Thomas. This to me is the tier that he belongs in. It is the same tier that I have felt he has belonged in for quite a while. This is the Zay Flowers tier. This is the Jaden Reed tier. This is that Brian Thomas Jr. tier,

that same tier of receiver that seems to move up and down with whoever is running hot over a four-week period. Because it was not long ago where this spot was Jaden Reed this year. Because he ran hot for four games, ish. He's a good player. He's 22 years old. He's good. We know it.

what his role is. Eventually, yes, one of those Applebee's, two for 25s, maybe not as likely with the two catches,

but we could easily continuously see a five for 55, a 5 for 45, a 5, 45. That could happen. And we need to see what happens when Fanta's fully healthy and when this team is not playing from behind

in a hurry up scenario. How does it look? I'd also like to see them not run the same screen pass with him five times a game. be creative. But for right now, what we have is a wide receiver that can easily score 14 to 16 points per game in the offense and the environment he's in.

He is 22 years old. There's nothing wrong with this current price. Yes, I'm paying a mid to late first for him. If I can get him, you're going to have to pay more. And guess what? I'll bloody well do it. That's what I have on JSN. I'm good.

I think he can be great. I think if D.K. is off the team for any reason next year. And they keep Gino Smith. Guess what? I know he's not. You know NFL team is just. just love cutting the I have to say it because I have to say it Jacob because the people believe it that it's pot there are people saying that they should trade them with the deadline this year on Twitter okay so I have to cover all bases you got to understand the people with the JSN profile pictures I have to cover all my bases all right if DK is not on the team yox for the next five years I agree that he is going to be there a while and I love that gino is likely to be there listen I believe that Gino is going to be their quarterback.

I do not know if their pass rate is going to maintain to be the highest in the league. I don't know that. We can't predict that. That can change. But right now it's working and it's good and it's happy and you should be excited if you have those points. And he's 22 years old and he's got the draft capital and he comes from wide receiver you, I guess, at this point with Ohio State.

Maybe they've passed LSU. I don't care enough about the college scene to go that deep into that. But that's my take. he's good enjoy the points his role does kind of suck a little bit but it's also working all of those things can be true at the same time I'm buying jSN if you have to use

too late first to go get him and you want to make a run at the title I will not fault you for it if you want to sell him for two first while you can guess what wouldn't fault you for that either that's what I have on jsn he is what he is right now and that has been baked into his price for a while the last i'm going to talk about it for a while until something drastic changes

that's it Anyone else? Ryan, you put notes in here about it. Do you want to tap in? Yeah, I mean, you honestly, you covered most of what anyone could possibly say about JSN. I tried to. I worked hard on that today.

Yeah, but I do want to flip that, by the way. Yeah. I do, I do want to give at least a little bit of my take as well. Please. So the A dot thing has been like beaten to death, obviously with JSN over the last year. Yeah. time D.K. Metcalf is out of the lineup. He suddenly gets used downfield more and he succeeds on it. And for him, like, as a player for his dynasty value, for us projecting forward into the future,

is he going to turn into an every week wide receiver one? That's nice to have in your back pocket, to know, okay, like, he can succeed with this usage. We've seen it in three games without Metcalf and in one game where they did it even with him against my Patriots, despite, and for some reason went away from it, even after it worked so well. But, yeah, for now, I guess my only bone to pick is, yeah,

he is still in this lower A-DOT role. That's not necessarily like a fantasy death sentence. I mean, Amonara St. Brown and Chris Godwin and Rashi Rice have been awesome for fantasy and low A-D roles. I guess my only like nitpick there is, yeah, we have examples of receivers that can kind of do the slot PPR scam stuff. They're probably not coincidentally all on some of the best called offenses in the league, just from a schematic like creativity perspective. Like you've got to have like your Ben Johnson or like your Sean McVeigh disciple or whatever to make that.

that type of thing happen most of the time. I don't know if Ryan Grubb is there necessarily. But I mean, it's, yeah, I don't know. I don't want to come off as like I'm pushing back against JSN. I just don't think that like the 19 fantasy points per game or whatever over the last three or four weeks is representative of a realistic expectation for him going forward. So like the expected fantasy points. for game is very close to Metcalf

over the last two weeks. It's like 14 to 12, right? Their first read target shares are the exact same. And again, with JSN, it's the lower A dot usage. So, I mean, it's fine. I think he's a wide receiver too for the rest of the season.

And yeah, like I said, he kind of has these like little outs in his profile that should give him that dynasty insulation. But yeah, I don't, I don't know when the downfield, like, bona fide wide receiver one performances are going to come. And I don't know.

That scares me like a little bit if I'm sending somebody like a Garrett Wilson to acquire him. Yeah. So I would just, I would prefer Wilson pretty easily. I would prefer a Rishi Rice pretty easily to JSN. But yeah, he's in that tier. I don't really agree with the Rishie Rice part. I'll take, they're like the same player and I'll take the one who has a knee and isn't going to go to jail. Yeah, I agree with you.

I agree. I agree with the other ones. I think that, like, I don't know, we're talking about when is he going to have a downfield breakout game when we're bringing up Rishie Rice. But outside of the rice quibble, and I mostly agree with everything you guys say, I don't want to be too redundant. And I think that we definitely, like, often we try to, it's very difficult to know when you're in a hot streak, if you're in a hot streak. Like, at all times, with young players especially, we're constantly trying to figure out, like, are we partway through a linear progression in which a player was one thing becomes another thing, or are we just on a hot streak? And we never, there's no real perfect way of knowing. Like we see players take the leap, so to speak.

We see players have a hot streak and come back to Earth. And it's not always that easy to distinguish between the two of them. I think the best thing you can say about JSN is what Ryan had just said. Tom has laid out, which is that we've now at least seen proof of concept that he can succeed as an alpha wide receiver as a downfield wide receiver in a very limited sample, albeit without DK Mecca. So we know that he can do the stuff. In terms of his actual role right now, I think it's. actually very favorable because it's a team that can't block literally anyone, but still wants to pass 37 times a game. So you combine those two elements like, yeah, obviously I think

most weeks you'd rather be the 7-8-Ock guy than the downfield guy. Like, if you're watching the Seahawks week to week, there are not a lot of times that they have the capability to throw a deep post or a go-rout to D.K. Metcalfe because Gino-Smith is like under siege the second that he gets the snap. So the JSN route tree, I think, is pretty darn favorable at this moment. And again, if you're thinking about it from an offense perspective, right, one thing to think about, are we assigning this guy a certain suite of routes because that's all he can do, or is that what's most advantageous for the offense?

And to me, that's what's most advantageous for the offense. When you have, when you have D.K. Metcalf available, you know he's going to give you an excellent downfield presence. That's what he does. He's D.K. Metcalf. So if you're then asking me, how do I want to deploy my second best for? receiver or my co best receiver whatever like i would and i have all these offensive line problems that they have and i insist on playing non-blockers the tight end position like i'm going to want that

guy working in the intermediate and close range of the field because i'm going to have to use that range of the field i don't want to waste both my two star receivers constantly running down the field where i can never throw to them and then the guy's getting the ball or wash tyler locket and a j barner that doesn't make any sense i think it's been used quite effectively so So that would be my point is that I think it's like, and the reason I bring all that up and the and the impetus behind that is I could see a case, and maybe this even is true, where you say his current hop streak is a function of this kind of borderline functional offense, where you have this like pretty good quarterback and a high pass rate, but the offensive

line's broken and so he's just PPR spamming his way through life. But I think at least why I don't think that's actually true is because we've seen this success, the limited times that he's asked to go downfield, I don't think he's dependent on this dysfunction to continue to put up value. I think this is currently where he's best deployed, but I don't really blame him for that. All that being said, you know, I will say on the year, even including the games that he played without DK McAfth, McHath still over 0.2 yards per outrun above him. He has the exact same targets per outrun on a much higher a dot. I would slow your role for the people that are like, JSN is now the wide receiver one.

and D.K. McCaff is a wide receiver too. I think at this moment in time, D.K. McCaff is still a better wide receiver, but outside of that little quibble, I agree with a lot of the optimism. Right. And I think, I think that's all we can say. I think that's,

I think we've hit it. That's it. It's just like, there's a lot of bad faith arguments. Real ball nor has always been hip to him. That's great. I expect you to have 100% roster ship. And you're in first place since,

since you drafted him. know what to tell you. Okay, can I sidebar on that? I'm so sorry. That just let something up in my brain. And I'm sorry. I'm hijacking this podcast to talk about best fault, Thomas. Fuck.

There is no genre of tweet that I loathe more than insert good player that is a lot of fantasy points. It's usually, it's Sequin Barclay or Derek Henry right now. Yeah. And like the tweet is basically I can't believe people didn't want to draft a good running back. Or I can't believe people didn't want to draft a good player. I feel like this is like 50% of Vestball Twitter this time of year. I understand it's best ball.

There's not much else to talk about besides like kind of victory laughing. But it's only 37% of Vestball blue sky. Yeah. Okay. Good to know. Yeah. Maybe I'll have to get over there to reduce my exposure. to that. But it is so goddamn annoying where, yeah, I just have, I just had the right player take.

And I exactly knew who was correct. And yeah, I did project Derek Henry and Sequin Berkeley for six yards per carry this season. That was a totally ball-noer thing to do. So, yeah. I mean, this is just what fantasy Twitter does, but it's what everyone does about all things, which is anything that's probabilistic in any way, which is A, whatever reality we're currently living in is the only reality that ever could have existed, right? There's no such thing as contingencies. Everything is predetermined. Also, everything was not just predetermined, but it was perfectly foreseeable. And I can't believe that nobody foresaw the things that I foresaw correctly, but the things that I didn't foresee correctly, nobody could

have possibly foreseen. And, you know, it's just, it's all that stuff. It's the world, the world is, was, it always will be as it is and I foresaw it. And I've had another point, but I forgot it. It's probably not that important. No, you put it beautifully, Jacob. And the other thing is just that whenever things are, whenever things go wrong, right?

Like if ever there's a take that's wrong by the market, right? Everybody just rushes out to like, we would see that if insert my particular, you know, heuristic or way of thinking, right? So it's like, you know, even when it like doesn't really make any particular sense, you'll always have some person on Twitter being like, and that's why you never fade draft capital. Then someone else is like, that's why you've got to watch the tape. And someone else's like, that's why you have to draft like players from the SEC. And it's like, okay, like I get that like maybe one of your selective biases was like slightly in favor, but we just like

apply that. I mean, it's the same thing. And this is like, don't worry, I'm not actually going to make a substantive political point. But it's the same thing as like anytime all we see in podcasts and articles from like Democrat X is like basically just if Kamala Harris ran on every single policy that I like, she would be president. That's just like how everybody thinks about things. It's just like everybody needs to take whatever my opinion is. And that clearly would be the right opinion. and people just don't think about it with any humility or probability at all. Well, that's why I focus so hard on this program and with everything that we do that it's important to take the...

Like, I've removed favoritism from players. That's why we joke all the time about, like, you know, Tom hates every Raven, even though there is his favorite team. Like, I remove myself from that hard biased, if you would, and I just adapt to market, man. And in my opinion, the market rarely lies. And that's where it lays into. We don't really ride out the hot player takes here.

We like to have rational conversations about things and ride with it. So if you were an all-knowing ball knower that knew everything all the time off the rip, I'm proud of you. I'd like to learn from you. And you'll be sure to let me know in my comments section. So keep that in mind. much love with that. Taking a break

and when we come back we're going to dive into the last few players. One, I know, the ever-quiet Lucas Gilbert will be very excited and happy to talk about

as instead of just being super happy to just sit in and listen. So hit tight. We'll hit that. We get back for the break. I love. Moreably above exposure

to JSN and best ball, by the way. There we go. There we go. There's the 12% Okay, so I knew it all along. You are a ball-nower? This is like our verse, you know, the, I'm going to expose myself for knowing like way too many obscure memes.

You know, like the soy face meme where he's like showing his, he's like pointing at his phone. Like, that's just what Jacob did. Yes, correct. Look at my JSN exposure. It's like this and the captain is like, ballmower. Yeah. Fantastic. I really just said that to show off my 18% Ken Walker exposure,

although that's getting kind of worse now. He no longer sports touchdowns, so he's bad now. With JSN on the one-yard line, where, you know, one yard, that's where he's good for. I must say, when he, like, got hurt for three plays, and those three plays happened to be two, Zach Charbonnet goal line touches, and like several angels lost their wings.

and each of those was just like my future hopes of buying house. Well, Tyler, Tyler decided to donate, which you don't have to do. We love you, though, Tyler. He said, happy birdhole stuff and day on tap, y'all. Now that Jacobs exposed his underdog to us, who's passing the cranberries and twig? You know, let's get a little on here. It'll get a little hot in here. Oh, my goodness.

How about this, Tyler? For every super chat you give us today, I'll take off one more item of clothes. No, no, we're not going to do that because Tyler will do it. That one gets you a sweater. No, no, Tyler, I will refund them. Don't do that. We can't encourage Tyler because he's so out of pocket. I don't know what's, what would happen.

Even Tyler, I'm scared. I'm nervous now. I think Jacob really wants it. He's like getting ready. He's like prep. I know. It could get weird. I love Tyler.

It could. I love Tyler. as well. It could get weird. I don't think I've ever grinded as hard on a man at a bar that I did with Tyler in Vegas two summers ago. It was a great time. Things got hot in Vegas. Well, with that being said, Scooby Taylor wants to know that in a dynasty super flex, should I trade pickings in a mid-second for AJ Brown? Yes. Yeah, I wouldn't hesitate at this. Anyone else have any pushback? No? Okay. There you go. There's your answer. Happy TD.

Oh my God. This is going to get so weird. I'm not, I'm not mentally prepared. No, we can't, we can't do, can we not, oh my God. Are we going to tell the audio listeners what this happened or no. TD donated a 269 Canadian,

which is like 75 cents US for people that don't know, to show us a foot and, Jacob. Down to 61 cents today after these tariffs. Okay. We go. See, I wasn't, I wasn't up to date. Um, all right. Let's, let's lock back in.

All right. Because this, this, this, again, this podcast could get real weird, real fast, but that's why I love it. Uh, I want to talk about Bo Nix, guys. I think it's time we really sit down and have a talk about Bo Nix. Oh, next. I was the highest on Bo Nix. I think, no, Ryan, I actually believe you were the highest on Bo Nix on this pod. I came in at a close number two. Um, let's talk about them because I feel. like the respect is finally starting to pop up. QB 12 on Keep Trade Cut as of this morning, which I struggled with,

because I believe I haven't ranked at QB15 or QB. Oh my God. He's out of Caleb on Keep Trade Cut. Holy shit. He is. Yes, he is. He's also ahead of Caleb

in quite a few statistical categories, which is kind of interesting. Let's talk about it. He's eight overall in fantasy points per game. He's seventh in Scramble Yards, with 236 with two touchdowns. That's more than Kyle Murray and Lamar Jackson. Eight in total rushing was

300, which means he's giving you 2.5 fantasy points per game without design runs. That's big. Unlike Caleb Williams who has taken the most sacks possible, Nick's has taken 19, which is fewer than Kirky, Burrow,

fake MVP candidate, Jared Goff, fight me, Brett Whitefield, but not actually, because you're massive. He's even taken fewer sacks than Drake May, who has played fewer games for a quarterback whose mechanics have been comical at times. He does not like to throw standing still. He's avoiding sacks and navigate in the pocket quite well. Vers other rookie quarterbacks, he's second of points per game only to Daniels with his 19.9 points per game to Nix's 18.4. Second in passing arts

Daniels burst in passing touchdowns. He has 20 total touchdowns with only six turnovers, all interceptions, hasn't fumbled. These are statistics that were expected from Caleb Williams, Drake May, even Jay and Dan, no one expected this really out of Bo Nix, unless you listen to Dynasty points because if you guys remember I pointed out how good Sean Payton quarterbacks were under his tutelage. I called Bo Nix what Sean Payton expected Taysam Hill to be for him if he was just allowed to put him out at quarterback every single week. And Scott Barrett tweeted almost the same thing on November 18. Sean Payton quarterback since 2018, Taseom Hill with 20 and a half fantasy

points per start, a wash drew Breeze at 19.8. Bo Nix, a rookie with a six foot seven slot wide receiver. It's 27-year-old rookie like he is. If 18.3, Russ with 18, Trevor Simeon had 18, James Winston, 17.2, and Teddy B. Ridgewater, 17.1. And he added, for perspective, Nick's currently ranks as Fantasy's

QB 10 at the time of the tweet. Even Teddy Bridgewater averaged more than at the time, QB14, Patrick Burr Holmes is 16.9 fantasy points per game. Now, this is, as Jacob mentioned before the show, a constant battle between film and what we're looking at because, boy, is it ugly to watch? I still remember the tweet where somebody had pointed out that it looked like he was trying to throw to Demarius Thomas when he threw it in between two Denver Broncos wide receivers

against the Saints. I laughed very loudly at that joke. And phenomenal joke, out of pocket, but phenomenal joke. Let's talk about him because he's getting into that decision-making time. He's getting into round four plus startup time, round three even, hovering right around and beside Drake May and Caleb Williams. He's definitely past Jacob's former golden boy and Trevor Lawrence and some of the other tweener quarterbacks. Let's talk about Bowknicks. Let's talk about what we do with them.

And whether or not we believe and we buy it, who has anything else to say is I have set the table like we do at Thanksgiving dinner. for Bo Nix. Ryan, Jake. I'm just taken. I'm just taken it. This has been a glorious last five minutes of podcasting slash being on YouTube. Like, it can't get any better than this. And now we get to Boleave.

We get to talk about Bo Nix. And the Denver Bronkers that have a winning record, even though I was definitely not expecting it this season. And I'm very happy I've been wrong so far on Bo Nix. I mean, we know just from a Superfx, Flex Dynasty standpoint that if you get a first round quarterback and he's at the end of your first round in rookie drafts, you smash the pick no matter what. It's not always very fun, but that is guaranteed to return value on you. They're going to have insulated value going into the next season.

That's just what you do. But what he's been able to do in this offense, especially this run he's been on since the first three weeks, whenever, you know, he was still adjusting to the NFL and everybody's like, well, he's 29 years old, or I know he's not 29, but he's an old guy coming in and he shouldn't have to adjust or he shouldn't have this much growing pains. I mean, speed of the game is different at every single level. So he has looked really good, even in the losses he's looked really good so far. I am a little bit concerned, though, just about how he could potentially fall or I don't think that his value is incredibly insulated in this just because I think that. any quarterback that they put in there can do well, at least for Champagne or at least

produce fantasy points. It is still very encouraging what he's doing. And I would see if you could potentially flip him for some asset that has a little bit higher range of outcomes in terms of the positives. I don't know if I'm necessarily like, you know, idealizing like Justin Herber or somebody to like flip him into. I mean, that's fine. Definitely a safer player to potentially go up.

and get. But I do think, though, that you should be looking to use Bo Nix to potentially upgrade because you're just getting so much free value based off of what he's been doing so far in the season. Interesting. I don't mind that. I don't mind that at all. Still a little bit of a doubter. Okay. I get it. I vibe with that. Ryan? Yeah. So I'll, I guess I'll start by saying, yes, I was the highest on Bo Nix on this podcast. And it's because, as we just talked about, that this was the only world that could ever possibly have existed, which is when you get a Sean Peyton QB that is drafted in the top 10 with a clear path to starting in week one, you smash him in the first round of rookie drafts every single time. That's the heuristic.

It's always right. It will never, ever fail you. But I mean, so in seriousness, yeah, that has basically gotten us this far. And that's great. He's, yeah, he's the, QB12 on Keep Trade Cut. You can apparently flip him straight up for Drake May right now. I would do that pretty much true, but I don't think that's true either. If it were true, I would do it instantly, obviously. But I guess I will say, so this is as far as like the that thesis of like it's the Sean Peyton offense and it doesn't matter if he looks terrible is going to get you.

Any further up like the dynasty value rankings. It's going to have to be really sustained production. Right. He's the QB5 over the past eight games. He's going to have to do that for probably a full season to get much further up there, in my opinion, just because of kind of how the market views him, how everybody viewed him coming in as a prospect.

So I would say if you were on kind of like the Bo Nix meme train of that I just have to click this button, type of deal because of the circumstances. I don't even have like a hard take on the player. This is probably the time you sell. Yeah. If you have conviction in Nix as a player, yeah, I mean, keep them great. Great.

Good for you. Probably isn't going to matter for fantasy as long as he's in the Sean Payton offense. And I should say like to give him his flowers a little bit too, this was not seen kind as like an amazing situation, consensus. for a quarterback. He has turned Cortland Sutton into a receiver that's on pace for a thousand yards for the first time since 2019. If you told me before the season that Bo Nix was going to get Sutton to a thousand yards,

I would have been pretty surprised, pretty excited. Since the zero. This is like the dustiest guy that can't separate that had like blew his knee out four years ago and has never looked the same. And now he's a serious NFL wide receiver putting up. serious production with Bo Nix, which that's pretty cool. But yeah, I guess I will side more with Lucas there, where I think this is a totally fine time to kind of take profits.

Because, yeah, this isn't, he has to really produce in an elite way for an extended period of time to get a lot higher, I think. Yeah, I agree. I mean, I think the Bo Nex statistical profile is strong, especially for a rookie. He adds the rushing element. His rushing was very underrated coming out of college. Love, love, love the fit with Sean Payton. Everything looks great.

I struggle watching him play. I can't tell. Oh, yeah. This is like, I just totally can't tell if this is a thing where we're talking with this pre-show. Like, half of me is like my annoyance at some of the aesthetically displeasing, happy feet things that he does is like causing me to erroneously dislike him more than I should and like I should be more on board.

Then the other half of me is looking at this being like, man, I just don't think he's actually as good as what his numbers say. And I don't know which one of those is true necessarily. If this cheap trade price is accurate that I don't think I really have to care because I don't want to hold him at this cost. Like to me, May and Williams being like completely equal to him is pretty bad.

And I would very happily trade him into either of those guys. accordingly, you can apparently get, you know, a reasonable plus on top of a Dack Prescott or a Trevor Lawrence for him. I would certainly do that. I don't, I don't personally buy Bo Nix just based on, I think, some of the lack of physical tools, some of the age stuff and some of the, shall I say, innovative approach to pocket management. I don't know that I buy him as like Bo Nix MVP candidate. Bo Nix, you know, top six quarterback in the NFL. I buy, I definitely buy Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, who runs more. Or Bo Nix, you know, like basically like, going to play in the NFL a very long time, going to be between the 10th to 20th best quarterback in the NFL for most of that

time, and will score fantasy points due to the rushing. I can buy into that, right? I can definitely So I'm not that afraid of losing load on the opportunity cost of him being like a three base first type of guy. And I think that those other guys valued around him who have that upside. But definitely into it for now. The one thing that I will note too, though, quick is like, I mean, part is just that they can't run the ball at all. But I thought they would be a pretty low, even as someone who was very into the Bonix landing spot and wrote about that, I thought they would probably be pretty high rush rate over expected. They have not been.

They've been slinging the ball around. A lot of that is because, again, they run for like two yards per carry every week. But also because they've trusted Bonix to do that. And the fact that he's having success, operating a passing game with no balance and with pretty mediocre group of weapons, is a big credit to him into Payton. I will say their pass blocking grades are fantastic. He's getting protected very well. Everything else in that offense is not.

helping him at all. I will say as a very pro Bo Nix guy, like I see the chat. They're going to get a running back. You're going to run more. But again, look at Sean Payton's body of work, right? We at least know and understand how they use the running game and how it's used the compliment. So I get that aspect as well. Bo Nix has been on par with again, every other quarterback that he's had under his tutelage. So again, he probably has the second worst group of offensive options. We would still argue Drake May

is number one. But again, Caleb Williams posting these numbers with what we have would be like oh, Caleb Williams through the roof, but instead it's Caleb William question mark sends a couple of games every now and then as he stands there and stares blankly and

take sacks in overtime and make terrible decisions. I think we're allowed to be excited about his two or at least two of his three most impressive games of the year coming after the Switched Offensive Coordinator. I think we're allowed to draw Yeah, no, I agree. I'm just saying like if we were

objectively to look at the data itself just and take it for what it was, we would expect the numbers to be flipped a little bit, honestly, going into the season. So I think it just means he can play. I think you're right. I just want to point out like we said the same thing with Scott Barrett on our show

with the C.J. Stroud thing. like quarterback kind of sucks. Quarterback sucks in Dynasty. Like look at CJ Stroud. DJ Stroud again. I've picked on him enough. I don't need to do it much more. He's definitely regressed.

Look at Jordan Love. I mean, Justin Herbert's picked it up a little bit. Overall, quarterback is just kind of ass. Brock Purdy is always going to kind of be doubted all the time. Under him, it's at Baker Mayfield. He's had a great year,

massive year above his average. It's going to be 30. Jared Goff is Jared Goff. Anthony Richardson could be head of the league in two years. or be an MVP, who knows. JJ McCarthy has played one preseason game. Trevor Lawrence has been what he was. Two is trying to tackle people head first for some stupid reason.

Pennix has barely played. Dax hamstring fell off the bone. Sam Donald could be a backup again next year. Bryce Young, who knows? Like, quarterback sucks. I think Bo Nix deserves to be here, but I would be using him to explore some options to move up. I don't know as much about moving down.

Someone in the chat did comment that, you know, a DAC plus for Bo Nix is enticing. I agree. I think that's a decent flip. If, again, you've benefited from like a 202 Bo Nix and you're ready to get out and you're still kind of rebuilding. I don't mind that at all. But Dak was also playing terribly before he got hurt. Let's keep in mind. So he's 31 less mobile and now doesn't have a hamstring attached to his leg.

Question marks all around. So let's keep that in mind as well. But again, I just think quarterback kind of sucks. I think he belongs there. It feels weird for him to belong there. But I will say, having three rookie quarterbacks from QB11 to QB13 confidently is exciting. I'll say it's exciting.

All of them are running. Very exciting with Bonix. It's a matter of time for the best buy in fantasy football, Jiji McCarthy anyway. Yeah. You're not too far. off. Yeah. Thanks. Thank you for preluding that. So I didn't have to be the one

to say so. I am he is, I mean, he could be the best by now. I mean, I absolutely want to acquire J.J. McCarthy. Oh my God. Sam Donald looks in that offense. Oh, my God. But I was distressed at how far I just had to scroll down, keep

trade cut to find J.J. McCartney. I think he's going to be 17. It's insane. He's an out of this world value. But you don't have much time left to get because he'll, as soon as the flip to the offseason, I suspect that then it's like, I mean, well, I should really say as soon as Sam Darnal

signs of the team that's not the Minnesota Vikings, all of a sudden, everybody's going to be like, oh my God, the thing we all thought was going to happen, happen, now we have to move them up the ranks. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. A couple trades, obviously, because when we're doing things like this, we just talked a whole lot of what we think is value is.

Time to see if we're full of shit. This is an exercise we do all the time on the Market, Dynasty Points Market Report podcast with myself and Andy Buckler. We always give our takes, and then we searched Dynasty Daddy for recent recent trades with those players to see if we actually believe in our takes or not. So it just gives

a little bit of clarity. We got from two days ago again, same thing, 12 team, start 10, Titan Premium Superflex, right? Every league we play in. Debo in a 25 first or Boeux. Sorry, who are not doing a first? Base first and Debo or Boeux. Man, Debo looks pretty washed.

Barry washed. I'm doing it there. Yeah, I'm taking Bo Nix there. easily. I traded every D-Boe I had for a 27-first, and I'm not going to look back on that. I'm not going to feel bad on that. That's including on contenders as well. We have got Bo Nix and Aaron Jones or Michael Pennix and a 25 first. I mean, it's so hard to judge these trades when you don't know where the first is, but I'm just assuming mid for all of them. Same here. That's how I do it.

All purposes. I'm pretty content with the next side of that equation, to be honest. Agreed? Everyone else agreed. I'm seeing a lot of nodding. heading heads. This is where I think it starts to get dicey for me. We got two firsts, one in 25, one and 26. So we're giving up our future capital with a third and then for Bo Knicks. So you're betting that Bo Nix is your guy for 2020. Definitely taking the two first. I'll take two first. Yeah. Yeah, I think I think so. Okay. So we're we're drawing the line at the two one eval. I think that's fair. That is just kind of the cost for a young.

top 12, top 13 quarterback. So I don't blame you if you pay it, but yeah, I'm in agreeance. I've seen I see a Jane Daniels straight up which I think is kind of interesting. Here is a cross. Here is a cross position

trade. Zay Flowers and a 252 or Bo Nix and a 25 third. I mean, I'm not very like league economy team kind of thing. I think I'm on Nick. I don't have a opinion on that train. Yeah, it's just for just your base value set up, you look at it, all things are equal.

Yeah, I don't know. My opinion, it's a fair enough trade to me that I would be willing to take either side depending on the team. Yeah. I think in a lot of leagues, it's hard to, well, depending on the league, it's hard to only get a quarterback or it's hard to only sell a quarterback if QBs aren't being exchanged. So, yeah, I mean, if you need to be on one side or the other of that, I think it's okay. I think these are fair deals,

but I also think it's very fair for these deals to be what is expected when you get into it. All right, we've got two running backs ready to go here. We're going to hit those. Lucas, correct me if I'm wrong.

We've done two breaks so far. Yes. All right. We're going to hit our last one. So Jacob can start to- Tom. It's coming for your beanie. I'm just,

I'm dying. I don't know who that person is. Oh, I will set up screen chair on. We're going to screen share it. All right. Well, we'll get that.

He's got a good point. Oh, no. He is right. I don't know who it is. He's correct. I'm in Winnipeg. It's very cold here.

Oh, no. He stays on. Anyway, we're going to take our quick break. I'm going to get cooked when we come back because that just seems to be what happens on this podcast. We'll be back after this. I'm excited to know who I'm being compared to.

here we go oh god I'm so nervous you know give him some glasses it's actually closer than I even thought it was in my head oh my god yeah it's hold on hold on hold on

I did not like that was like funny meme until right now and I'm like hold on let me let me try to recreate the third one I wouldn't depire you is it like a frown I don't know there you go It's not bad.

It's not bad. For the audio listeners, Double D the chat had suggested that Tom, who is wearing a black beanie with his beard. It is a too. And like Tim Poole.

And they have a point. All right. I don't know. I feel like I'm living under a rock. Because I have no idea who this person. No idea, but I'm going to assume it's not good. I have so much envy. I was sick with Lucas and Thomas.

I'm sick with your current positions. Yeah, given the reaction, I feel. I feel happy that I don't live on the internet. Okay, Lucas, we've got two running backs I want to hit on. And pause. And they kind of mirror one another a little bit, given who they are. So let's talk about it. I want to talk about Chase Brown.

you want to talk about Bucky Irving I'm going to let you go first here I will say I moved Chase Brown higher in my rankings than Bucky Irving so I'm going to give you the floor and the opportunity

to tell me why it should be the other way around if you believe so I'm getting like Gaslit into an anti-Chase Brown position I don't know I just I thought I got to just be pro Bucky Irving well I'm also pro

pro bucky so i'm going to use your insight is like tom is out here like playing stephen a smith you know we're embracing debate here on my job yeah i'm trying to think who i'd prefer yeah i do prefer bucky irving to chase brown i think if that's accurate but okay a lot i'll have probably in the same tier um oh i suggested and it's like oh suggested jacob and it's like oh debate and ryan goes oh you know what yeah see that's why i do it no i'm pretty i'm pretty clearly Chase Brown. No, I thought

Thomas, just for the conflict, but I was surprised that I was Jacob. You posed the question. You posed the question with good radio. It annoyed me because it's going to force me to take a position against the player that I like.

And then it's going to result in people being like, ah, Jacob hates Chase Brown. Jacob, you know you're going to lawyer your way into being neutral. You're just going to lawyer your way into being neutral at the end of it anyway. What does it matter? That's true. No, but let's talk about Buck, Iering, first,

on his own merits before dragging down Chase Brown. So Bucky Irving, for the first time this whole season, his rookie season, played a majority of the snaps in a game that Rashad White was active. So 52% snap rate, that was his first time above 50 in a game that Rashad White played. More importantly, he ran by a mile, a season high of 63% routes. In every other game that Bucky Irving and Rashad White have both been active, Bucky has slowly went from being a distant number two to a borderline even to eventually a clear lead on the ground. But Rashad White had had a complete stranglehold over passing down situations that whole time.

That changed in a big way last week. Granted they didn't get in from behind, but Bakirma runs 63% of the routes. He runs over two and a half times as many routes as Rashad White does in that game. And it was the first week out of a buy. That's like the classic rookie post-buy. We've reviewed the tape. we're going to use this guy. He's been really good differently.

He also just continued to be absolutely dynamic in space. He has been one of the most evasive backs that I can recall watching in, like, I don't know, he's like the poorest possible person like Barry Sanders, but it is like insane how many jump cuts you watch. Like it seems like literally every week. There is a clip going around Twitter of like Bucky Irving, like teleporting around through the defense and turning like a 20 yard gain out of nowhere. it's crazy.

It's backed up in all the advanced rushing metrics that we have on where? On the dynasty point status suite, where you can find that he is fourth, an explosive rush rate, he's third and mistackles force per attempt, he's third in yards after contact per attempt. And so the two questions that we really had about Bucky, you know, even after he started out in the early season, it's like we knew from his college profile that he was a pretty skilled dude, always had strong volume metrics in college,

I always had strong efficiency metrics in college. I thought his tape was really good in college. When we saw early in the NFL, that translated. The question was just, and we talked about it two weeks ago when we all were debating, like it's time to put him over Brooks. And I think at the time we all said, no, not quite. And I definitely have changed my view on that now. It's because we've seen now at least in one of those capacities being the receiving game,

but they've decided, okay, whatever concerns we had about your pass blocking, either we don't have those concerns anymore or we're putting those to the side. we're going to feature you in the passing game. And then the next step is just going to be more consistently getting the goal line work, but he has mixed in for at least portions of that. And the most important aspect to me, too, is like the guy who did take the goal on carries a couple times after Irving had some big passing plays that go down at the one, it wasn't white.

It was Sean Tucker. So to me, like, Rashad White is kind of, you know, it's close to dead for Rashad White. And it looks like it's going to be Bucky and some form of compliment. The nice thing is that they still have Rashad White. wet on the team next year under contract. They still have Tucker, who they've liked under contract for a couple of years. This strikes me as a team that does not need to invest in the running back position. I think they just run back the same three running back group next year.

Everybody gets a role, but it's clearly Bucky playing the majority of it. And he strikes me right now as one of the most talented backs we have in the league. Yeah, I've been pro, Bucky. We said he would take the job over fully by week six, took a little longer. definitely looks like after the by week they have a plan there was legitimate panic across twitter and a couple people that i think are very smart fantasy players bought into the sean tucker panic and were on the cell for seconds or a second where you can because the upside was gone um obviously happy if you did not do that right you're much happier with bucky

right now than you are with any second when we have young dynamic running backs that are producing already, and we have a kind of out of nowhere breakout performance versus a truly woeful defense. I mean, let's not freak out, let's panic, let's see what we got.

We don't always have to sell good players for a second when they kind of break out. That being said, Rashad White's still on the roster next year, but like you said, and like Zoltan has said, who is a big believer in this, Bucky is good at the same things that White is.

while also being better at what white is bad at. And I like having white around. I like having white at Tucker there because that, like that's my big fear with Chase Brown is they have nobody else there that they're invested in at all. And so like the fear is, is they're going to invest in a running back in some capacity for sure next off season. We hope and I think it's most likely that it's as a backup,

one beat of Chase Brown. But you're, I at least have some fear that there's, someone they can't pass up or whatever and it becomes a full-blown committee or it becomes that that guy's in the lead. I like having kind of these overqualified young backups that they would have to cut one of the three backs to if they had to go and sign or draft someone. I don't think they want to do that. That's like the last position group they need to change. And they already have that guy and Sean Tucker under contract next year. Right. If I'm not mistaken. So the back

that all three of them are under contract. White's going to be there. Tucker's going to be there. so you're right in terms of fear of replacement or competition if you would it's more encouraging to me that it's post by and this offense is just going to be good and this offense they have one of the best schedules down the stretch in fantasy football Carolina twice among some other matchups while they're pushing towards the playoffs great system you know here legitimately reminds me of is Alvin Camara

this is a legitimate Alvin Camara type player used kind of the same way in the passing game can get it done on the goal line. I think Tampa Bay got what they deserved by giving Sean Tucker another one yard plunge and watching him fumble and they learned their lesson and they cut that out. Happy that they learned that lesson and hopefully that stays in their head. They should just give it to their stud running back,

but I digress. I like him. But I think I just like Chase Brown a little bit more. Totally fair. let's talk about it. Chase Brown, in my opinion, has to be considered a top 15 dynasty running back, but he's keep trade cut RB17.

He's Dynasty Daddy RB16. He is my RB11. Now you might be thinking that's a little bit high. Why is that? Well, since week four, Chase Brown has a 17.8 points per game. That's better than Devon H.N. 16.2. Breece Hall's 15.2. Keep that in mind.

Tied for fifth in receptions with 30 and 20. two scores, only 188 yards in that time. So it is a little bit of a check down roll. However, notice that I said since week four, it wasn't since week nine when Zach Moss stopped being a part of the rotation. And that's when he started getting 80% plus of the snaps. He has the most receiving yards, most receptions, and he's fourth and rushing third in points for game at 23.1 at the position.

This is a legitimate second year breakout from a player who we have seen be a Belkow in college now carrying over. Yes, it's not perfect. Yes, there are some past pro issues. Yes, it looks like sometimes the first guy does take him down quite easily, but you cannot go online and not see a, it looks like Chase Brown was shot out of a cannon. Tweet every game. He is an explosive running back who can catch the football, can be used in all facets

of the game, clearly comfortable giving him an insane role, and he's staying healthy. Chase Brown in this role, again, he does have to fend off maybe a backup, something like that. Sure, I'm willing to roll with the risk. I don't think you have to pay top 12 prices for him. This is just a player that I am legitimately higher on than anyone else at fantasy points and across consensus formats, and I'm okay with that. I am not selling with a for any base first I can get. I am confident rolling in to 2025 with Chase Brown on my roster.

Even if he just ends up becoming an RB2, RB2s are still incredibly valuable. The Bengals have a lot of holes on their roster as well. Let's keep that in mind, potential losing guys like T. Higgins, some offensive line help, and definitely need some help on defense. I'm confident that a high draft capital pick not being spent on a running back when they have what they have. I'm comfortable with him. His stats look great.

The offense has built to score points. What say you guys am I out of my mind? I just want to be clear that I look at my ranks really quick. Then I'll give it to Ryan right away. Go for it. I have not finished my rank. I do my rank updates biweekly, but I was just running through Keep Trade Cut to figure out how I rank them ordinally. I would have Chase Brown at 11 as well.

So I'm in on the Chase Brown. I would just have Bucky Irving at 10. Okay. I've moved McAfree like down, down. So like that's, they've passed them to me. So anyway, now Ryan,

go for it. Yeah. So I mean, first I just wanted to challenge Thomas on like that who's the highest at fantasy points. I think a week ago I, for a redraft take, but I still wrote a week ago that I,

there's maybe I'd trade, Chase Brown away for Christian McCaffrey in redraft, but maybe not. I think in the post Brock Purdy world for this offense, I would easily rather have Brown over McCaffrey or any other running back for the rest of the season. I'm just saying for your pushback, for your pushback, you have a place at FantasyPoint.com where you could really push back and actually rank him higher than me, which is your FantasyPoint.com dynasty rankings. if you truly wanted to push back, but I digress.

Well, we'll open those up at some point on Black Friday this weekend. I would laugh pretty hard if it was like 12. I haven't looked. I'll bring it up while Ryan continues to make his point. Yeah, go for it. Last update to those was at least a few weeks ago, to be fair. But anyway, yeah, I guess my thing with, I guess my only bone to pick sort of with Jacob's argument in terms of,

Yeah, we know that this is going to be the Bucks backfield. Yes, also, the Vengals could keep Zach Moss under contract. It's under a $5 million cap hit for them to keep him on for next season. I don't think they have to do that. I don't think that represents like an incredible value for them. But, yeah, I also don't think that means, wow, we have to spend a premium pick on a running back in day, even in day two, right? I think that's a situation where you can plan to draft a guy or two on day three and kind of have it be fine, which, to be fair, is exactly how they got themselves into while we have Chase Brown, right? So if that continues to be sort of the organizational thrust, then great.

that I think Brown wouldn't project for not like 90% of the touches in week one, but be the clear lead, be in a clear Belkow type of role, which he's been succeeding in. So, yeah, I think with Brown, it's just, we've seen it for a handful of games already, that he can literally take on every running back touch and be productive on it and still look pretty great. With Bucky, yes, I agree. looks amazing. He's smashing all of the advanced rushing metrics to an even greater extent than Brown it currently is or ever has. But yeah, you're just always going to have that Rashad White or whoever it is if it becomes Tucker Moore that it is just kind of eating into like that

30 to 40 percent of that backfield opportunity share at least. Do you always have to be clear? He's in like week 11 of his rookie season. Chase Brown was playing zero snaps at this time in this Ricky season. Because it's impossible that Bucky Irving could just be playing 85% of the snaps this time next year? I mean, it's not so, hmm, how do I phrase this? It's not impossible, but I wouldn't call it projectable in it or projectibles, maybe the wrong word. I don't know. We've seen it with Chase Brown.

Yeah, probable, sure. He also doesn't have Joe Mixon in front of him in Tampa. So for for Bucky Irving to do that, there need to be you need to parlay together multiple injuries probably. Like what happened to the Bengals, but a more extreme version would have to happen to the Bucks. And that that's even less likely with younger guys, with guys seeing fewer touches, a lower snap shares than Zach Moss was at that point. Like I just would, yeah, I think it's very unlikely that Bucky is ever thrust into a position like Brexie. has been. And, yeah, just the way the Bucks have kind of played this backfield tells me that I always

think that Bucky's going to have the hottest hand because he's clearly the best back, but I don't think there's ever going to be like a commitment to he's our workhorse, he's our bell cow. And to be clear, that's fine. It won't necessarily mean that he is even all that much less productive than Chase Brown. Like it wouldn't be a huge gap in production between them if I had to sit down and project like their 2025 seasons right now.

It wouldn't be that big. But I will say that that has a big effect on the dynasty market and kind of how they're viewed. I think people do get very obsessed with, oh, is he the guy? Is there another back there that's taking touches, even if they're the low value touches. Like we've seen this with so many guys. we saw this freak out kind of with Braylen Allen early in the season is probably the quickest example that it comes to mind. So yeah, I just like for Brown's kind of insulation and also just his upside as a producer.

I'm going to lean him over a Bucky. And also like we've seen, as you said, we've seen Bucky in a 50, over a 50% snapshot once in a game with Rashad White. Who is to say that that does not flip back next week for no apparent reason, and we're back to having the same exact conversation about Bucky Irring we were two weeks ago? I don't know. I just would pretty pretty. I mean, it very well could flip back.

I just think that we're, I think you're imposing a bit of a ceiling on, it's a day three running back who was drafted to a team with a running back that was putting up like 92% snapshares last year. And he came in and he immediately changed the dynamic of that, where he was already from week one actually getting run, which most day three running backs do not, especially day three running backs behind established starters, even if we think that those established starters are bad. And then over the course of the year has like clearly grown that role. And in my opinion, in a pretty linear fashion. Like it went from he's the number two that sees him touches to he's the one B to he's. to he's tied at least on early downs to, okay, now he's getting more carries, to now he's just the 1A of the committee generally.

Like I don't know why I would look at it this week and say, now he's grown to this point. That's as far as it's going to go. Like we've seen this team, I mean, different offensive coordinator, but same coaching staff, same regime. We've seen this team commit to like Saddam Hussein numbers in Rashad White Snaps. So like I don't necessarily see why that same ceiling does not apply to be there. for Bucky Irving.

And more importantly, I don't really care that much about his snap pair or his touch share. The way maybe Liam Cohen probably gets a head coaching job and then maybe this becomes less of an effect. But like we've seen so far this season is they get the ball into the hands of their running backs a lot. Where like even despite this Bucky ascension, Rashad White's still been a perfectly flex-worthy play every week alongside him. And it's a lot like the Miami Dolphin situation where you had this young dynamic guy. ascending in HM. Meanwhile, most were still getting a lot of carries, but they were altering their offense to make him a focus compared to last year when it was all white snaps, but he wasn't a focus as much. He was just getting the ball in the flow of the offense. If they, if they can

get Bucky 12 to 15 carries every week and five to six catches, like I don't care if that comes on 80% snapshares or 60% snap shares or what the RB2 gets, like that's, if he's going to be a focus of the offense, I'm in because I think he's a really special. player. I do feel like it's important to point out that it's kind of help that Godwin went out for his. I know, but the desperation usage, if you would, with Evans also being out as well for a brief period of time, definitely heightened their needs. So I would argue that maybe they find a replacement for Godwin. It is a ton of projecting, but I think it's fair to project concerns a little bit with these running backs that they're going to be expensive like bucky and chase brown

are going to be expensive in startups they're held they're they are expensive now in terms of acquiring and what people will need to get them off the roster so i think i'm sitting good with where they're at i think i'm fine if you have them ranked anywhere between obviously 11 and like 16 because again running back kind of ass right now a lot of tweeners like i'm way down on like james cook and becheco and kiren and brooks and etienne and mccas and macket and maca and Mondre. Like it is kind of a mishmash of booty cheeks, if you would. But we do have a rookie class coming in that's really strong at running back.

For now, NIL can take over and a stub tow or two could limit it. Who knows? Don't want any of that to happen. But, yeah, it's going to be interesting. Double D says you want to buy rookies who flash and force themselves into the primary role. I'd rather chase the ceiling outcome. Yeah, for sure. 100%

Double E says I do prefer Brown himself but I can see it a lot of that seems to be a little bit of the discourse here but that's why you know that's why we do this I do want to I think we should talk about it I think we should talk about it briefly

I think it's important one more player I said we're going to stop after the running backs but that's not how we operate on this program one more player we should talk about unless you have something to add AJ Hawk on the Chase Brown Buckie Irving discourse

I mean you all pretty much all it is funny we've been talking about the film bros out here and bucky irving is a big film bro win especially because all of his advanced metrics just did not look good coming out of college like they were all kind of like well even his advanced rushing stats they're just kind of like and like none of them were like blowing you off the page wherever you have uh people like jalen wright trade benson uh marshon lloyd who all have great like explosive run number numbers, great mistackles force numbers, great yards after contact, yards before contact. Like, those right backs had excellent numbers coming in.

They also had good receiving work and also then just like generally good grades for what they were doing. And Bucky kind of was like middle of the pack barely in it. And like you can watch the film and he stands out at Oregon. Like it's very obvious that he was an excellent player. But yeah, whenever you start to dive in, it was just. just kind of like, this isn't necessarily why I'm wanting and to everybody who was late to the game there, and that's all that they're seeing is those in numbers on a stat sheet, what he did at

the combine, then what his draft capital was. Like, we all identified that, you know, Tampa Bay was a good spot potentially for any running back to come in and take over for some of the Russian work from Rashad White. And he's done great. He's really exceeded his opportunities. It's just, it's just funny looking at, especially with some of the previous things. Having said that, I am actually going with Bucky over Chase Brown. Okay. It is. It's so extremely close. I don't think this is something that we necessarily saw like coming into the season. It's definitely like a possible outcome, which is why people were definitely trying to get shares of Bucky before a season, try to get shares of Chase Brown before season because these outcomes were possible. I don't think that, you know,

I will have put money on this versus any other outcome, though. So good, good on them, though. And I am enjoying my hot take before season that Chase Brown will be the most traded player. I think that's definitely working out a little bit. He's up there. If you check the, you've checked the sites, he's definitely up there.

That's a great call going back to it. I think there's one more player we should talk about it because he was left for dead. And when you have an opportunity like this, it allows people that we're either in to buy more, or if you finally want to get off the bus, it gives you the opportunity. I don't know how you do it in the States, but you bring a little a cord here

where we're at to get off the bus. Oh, like when you're on the bus. Yeah, you pull the little thing someplace up buttons. I don't know how you guys do it. We have that on the T in Boston. Okay, there you go. On the ones at work. Most of them are.

On the ones that work, mint. All right, we got to talk to see if Bryce Young is actually good. or not. We have to talk about it because this is a standout performance. Some people are saying it's not his best fantasy production of his career. I believe that was against the Green Bay Packers last year. But when you look at the numbers from his last start to his previous starts in season, it's night and day. 16.5 fantasy points versus the chiefs. He was fourth in hero throw rate this week. Only had an 11.4% off throw rate and 80.6 adjusted completion percentage.

that's very good. Keep in mind, though, Will Levis had an 82% at 82.6, so shut out Billy Jeans. He also added 20 yards scrambling,

and they asked him to throw the ball 35 times. I wonder how that compares to his previous starts. 10.6 points per game and all other starts. Only a 2.8% hero throw rate.

Only a 67.2 adjusted completion percentage. He did add 68, Groundbeard than his other starts. I basically doubled it in a per game manner. He had a negative 6.5 completion percentage over expected. Keep in mind that this is just worse than Caleb Williams, but also much better than Anthony Richardson in those weeks that he also started,

just to give a little bit of context for what that is. You might be wondering, why are we bringing up a player that scored 16.5 points, and is that that being deemed the best game of it? his career, excuse me, the best game of his career. I'm glad you asked. In Dynasty, when we have big games like this that are against the Chiefs, it's important, it stands out. It was basically an island game. Every, all eyes, well, all eyes, but most eyes were on that game. And Bryce Young hung in there. He could have easily folded and no one would have batted an eye. Same old narrative. I am holding on to two shares of Bryce Young. And now I have to,

to sit here and make a decision if this is the Bryce Young we're getting. Did he just play way above potential? Is the offense finally clicking? Was it Adam Thielen all along that unlocked Bryce Young? We don't honestly, you're like, we're snickering here, but we don't know. So it's important to talk about this because this could be your last real potential selling spot if you still have him. So it's important to talk about to me, before I pass it off, I will just say he is the type

a player that I have to ask, what do you win when you win? Right? Is 16 and a half points or 18 points as almost like a ceiling level play in this offense right now enough for me to get excited into 2025 and carry risk of buying? No. Is it enough for me to be willing to sell for a second and a third, which is I think what you would actually sell for right now? I think it is. I'm out.

But I want to hear what you guys have to say, are you just using this? to get out or was this legitimately a bounce back kind of potential turnaround game? Because the narrative on Bryce Young is that he has played much better since coming back. It just really showed up in the fantasy stat sheets here. Let's talk about it because I think it's important. Are you buying or selling this performance on Bryce Young? And are you confident in him going into 2025? Are you just happy to let go of every share that you got left?

I'm buying that. he has a slightly better than 50% chance of being the intended panther starting quarterback in 2025. This roster is a long way off. I thought even when it seemed like they had completely given up on Bryce Young, that they might be better served and might feel they were better served by just taking a breather from the quarterback to malt for a year, going out and signing some veteran and trying to build up the roster at a different way. I would wager now the most likely scenario is that they, I mean, maybe even just bring back Andy Dalton,

but that they pair Bryce Young with like a capable veteran if things go off the rails really fast and that Bryce Young starts next year on a fairly short leash, but with a legitimate opportunity to play himself into being their full-on franchise quarterback guy that they wanted him to be. I buy that because I think he's showed enough improvement and the Panthers have so many other needs that that just seems like a better plan to me than going all in on Shadur Sanders or Cam Ward in this draft and chasing the dragon again

with another rookie quarterback. I don't buy that the Bryce Young asance is quite as sustained as kind of I've seen. I've seen a lot of people talk about the last four weeks of Bryce Young, the last four starts with Bryce Young. His yards per attempt in the previous three games were 6.6, 6.1, and 5.0.

Um, like he was better than he was early in the season when he was like potentially the worst quarterback of the 21st century outside of Nathan Peterman. Like he looked like somewhat competent. But this was by definitely the first game this year where I would say he was legitimately good on the scale of judging NFL starting quarterbacks. Are you one of the 16 best ones this week? He was this week. That's the first time he's hit that bar. That is a very different bar than he did it in the previous three starts. So am I going to bet on this one game

Be more predictive than everything else we have? No. Have we seen a lot of young quarterbacks, you know, go through very weird ups and downs and all of a sudden figure it out? Absolutely. Look at, you know, a Jordan Love, for example, or Will Levis.

Whoever, Will Levis maybe? I mean, we can have the same conversation with Will Levis, right? So for this guy, like I believe to that point. But like Tom said, I thought he, get the best point there is, which is, and this applies more to him than Levis, I think. He is a physically limited quarterback who doesn't really run, and he's on a team that needs to find a left tackle. He's on a team that needs to find wide receivers. And so, like, the upside for him is just not that interesting. And I think if he was, like, a truly special talent,

you know, we'd have seen that by now. So your peak upside, if everything goes well, is he's what, like Baker, Purdy, Tua, that's like the world we're living in, golf. And like, that's definitely a win if you invest right now. But I don't, I would wager that has like a 20 to 30% chance of happening. And I would bet you have to pay a 50% of that price. So for that reason, I'm still out. Okay. All right.

Anyone else? Yeah, I'm definitely not buying right now. I don't know if I'm making him a priority sell. I don't know if this will be your last chance to like get out from under him, especially with what this quarterback class looks like coming into the season. I think that there is a real chance that or a better than 50% chance that he's going to be starting, you know, week one next season. I think that there's going to be opportunities throughout the off season to potentially sell him for more to if you do have any shares left.

I mean, if somebody's coming out of the woodworks is like offering you a late first because they think that, oh, you know, he's worth, you know, buying it just to see what you have. have, especially if they're like quarterback needy, then, you know, fine. Go ahead, do that. I'm considering for Doc Prescott. I don't know if that's the person that we should be comparing in terms of value, given it as personally one of the, I would say, not good dynasty managers we've played against in our experience. So not using that, that would be the equivalent of me saying I bought Patrick Mahomes for Dalvin Cook and Ryan Taneyhill once.

same league. So yeah. But this, I don't think this is like Zach Wilson last year. After, you know, Aaron Rogers went out and then Zach Wilson came back,

led them to that win against Buffalo and everybody's like, oh, Zach Wilson finally turning the corner and then we know how the rest of the season went. Like, I don't think that this is that scenario. I think that Bryce Young was a much better prospect coming out. The situation arguably is worse than anything that Zach Wilson had to go through.

And I think we all kind of discounted that a little bit more than we should have. So I think that at some point in time, Bryce Young can develop into, you know, a starting core back in the NFL and one that's, you know, not in the bottom 10 in the league. Right. But like Jacob said, what's really the upside of that? So not buying, not selling yet. I do think that there's going to be another selling window layer on where you can increase your value. I'm perfectly fine, though, if you're, you know, trade.

and Kim for a first that's two years away. Get it. Oh, yeah. Fine. Go ahead, do that. Move on. Give me a second two years away. But yeah.

I would buy for that because I think I wouldn't. I would trade a 26 or 27 second form because I think that at that price, all you're doing is just betting on is he the week one starter. Because if you're the week one starter, I think you turn a profit on that investment. Yeah, but you could just get a different veteran that like. puts up better numbers over stretches already you just trade bright young for that veteran and probably get a little plus if you won't not always if you don't want if you don't want to play i don't know if you don't want to play the like you don't want to play at the stock market that's fair

yeah and then like then then i guess i would say it depends on the league whether or not i would actually buy for that too but i would not sell for that too as maybe the more action of advice i think i think i really would i think i really would sad customer says what do you win if you win was more applicable to his round two three startup price now that was just an egregious i'm never clicking that button price in my opinion that was a nothing you win nothing that wasn't even a chance to to win anything uh then a couple thirds i mean i i i disagree because again like his issue with me was always upside at the end of the day at the end of the day i do think he's like the pylon type quarterback that i don't want to win with um anyway like i don't want to acquire and and need so he's an

void for me just on an entire profile base. And at this point, yeah, I'm willing to jump off, right? Like, it's, I'm done. He doesn't have the rushing upside that like a Richardson would, where when he got benched and then gets his job back, I'm like more inclined to buy because he has the elite rushing upside. I don't,

I don't see that with, with young. Yes, he added some scramble yards. It was really good consistently. I don't know. We didn't see it. So, I don't know. There's more red flags and green flags.

I'm willing to, I'm willing to stay out, Ryan, what do you got? Yeah, no, I think I would just sell if the price is the second. Yeah, I, because it, I mean, Jacob and Lucas kind of covered everything here, but it is, to me, it is a relevant question of what, what do you win if you win? And I am not the person that wants to play, like, play the stock market game as Jacob puts it as much in my leagues. Part of that is just I know myself in terms of I'm not as active of a trader as probably all three of you guys are in practice when it comes to how I manage my dynasty teams. So, yeah, even if I thought this was like a generational wealth opportunity with Bryce Young, which I don't think it is.

I don't think it's a GWO. Yeah, that I still, yeah, I don't trust myself as a manager to take advantage of that. or to make that like a liquid investment, I guess. So yeah, I'm just kind of, I'll just take the, I'll take the picks basically. Because those are easy. Those are a lot easier to flip. It wasn't that long ago. We were begging for this opportunity.

And now we got it. And I'm not one to look a gift horse in the mouth. I'm really not. I'm just going to take it. And I'm going to go. So I think that's where out with Bryce Young, we've got two people that are kind of willing to dip their toe in the water a little bit. and two of us that are willing to get out for that price, if I can.

I'm going to try to do that as soon as this podcast is over. TTD, militia wants to know is Levis back up? He looks good, we'll say that, but he also looks bad at-up or backup. That is the question. Yes, backup or backup is the question.

We will hit a, maybe we'll look at Will Levis next week. We're done. We got player picks to do. So that's it for the players today. Hope you enjoy it. We don't do these. very often. So if you want more of them, just drop a comment. Again, we try to remove the bias out of things and look at things objectively with the data and information we have and try to just have a reasonable discourse on players.

Because that is the way you learn and you grow in the game. No one gets us 100% right all the time. People are going to get things wrong. I've been told I'm too arrogant in my takes and I control narratives too much on this podcast. so I hope that my hosting chops were up to par this week, right? So we don't have weird comments. But if you have a weird comment, most notably about the fact that we saw Jacob Sanderson show his barefoot on this podcast today, which is something that I never saw coming. You can leave those comments down below and let us know how we did. They go a long way. And we did hit 13,000 YouTube subscribers during this podcast.

So again, love. All of you. Thank you so much. With that being said, time for the most depressing part of this podcast is letting Jacob know that he's whooping our asses in player picks. If you are new here and you're unfamiliar with the game, you pick a quarterback outside of the top 15, a running back outside of the top 15, a wide receiver outside of the top 30 and a tight end outside of the top 12 weekly point

per game projections. We each pick a player. We tally those points up. At the end of the year, the winner picks the winning, the winner picks the beverages of the other hosts for the live draft coverage for Dynasty, which is on after Joe Dolan, Brett Whitefield, Scott Barrett, go live for the NFL draft. Dynasty reactions as soon as we get the information. That being said, Jacob, you are in the lead.

Of course you are with 743 and 96 points. Lucas is in second with 593-96. I am in third at 55722, and Ryan is in last at 5.5. 2724. That being said, Ryan, you get to go first. Let's do it. Yeah, let's do it. He did have a warp question. We're going to hit that after the player picks. I promise, sit tight. We are going to get to a double D. I'm sorry, I forgot. It's been two hours. I apologize. All right. So I'll just say my, my quarterback and my ride receiver together. We're going Caleb Williams plus Keenan Allen for the stack. The Lions have been very vulnerable to the slot,

all season. Keenan has been receiving the most targets in the Thomas Brown offense, hoping that stack can make me be not in last place. That would be very nice if that pops off. At running back, we're going with Aaron Jones. He was just back up to an 80% snap share. We thought he was dead. We thought that Cam Acres was just going to be a 40% opportunity share player.

In hindsight, maybe we're a little too quick to write off Aaron Jones. So I like him against the Cardinals this week. And then at tight end, we are just going Dallas Goddard against the Ravens, who I learned today, lead the league in yards allowed

on busted coverages. Hope and Dallas Goddard gets some of those. Yeah, we're going to get absolutely destroyed by Philadelphia. I'm not looking forward to that. For me, I need another big week.

I need another really big week. So I'm going Tua, who looked decent. I'm going with Bucky, who we talked about today versus Carolina. I'm stacking with Waddle and praying that he doesn't just completely fall back down to Earth. And I'm going with Earth versus Tennessee because old reliable has been doing his thing.

And I need him to fall into the end zone. And I think he can do that. I also need the stack. And I'll take the zero if I have to. Lucas, you're up. Well, because I'm not boring like Thomas. I won't do a repeat player this week, even though Bucky Irving looked really enticing against Carolina.

So going with Bryce Young, going against Tampa Bay, that's one of the absolute best. You said you're not boring. Yeah. You're going to go Bryce Young. Great pick, Lucas. There we go. I haven't picked him once all season. So here we go.

Really hoping for that 16-pointer. Yeah. What's that from third place? I'm sorry. Oh. Can you say a little louder? I'll turn up the line. Oh, the hoosers are trash talking each other.

That's fine. You can take it. for now. 50 behind Jacob. I feel really good about that. I would call that the first. To be fair. To be fair.

He doesn't say anything all show. So if this is his platform and his stage to do it from, you know, second place in this contest, so be it. Yeah. Then going with Rico Dowell against the Giants and other really good matchup. Michael Pittman Jr. I think that's the riskiest one I have this weekend. But New England's been giving up points. He did at least.

look good last week or at least got peppered with targets, but that might all go away in the blink of an eye. And then Tucker Kraft is kind of boring, but he has a great matchup against Miami, right outside of where we can pick players. So take that one. You go in in true winners fashion, Jacob did his while the rest of us were announcing our picks because it's working for him. So why break the pattern?

Jacob, who do you got? Yeah, I put a lot of thought into this. I've got Gino Smith Revenge Game versus the Jets who have completely quit Everyone's been fired Aaron Rogers is being

asked not to return He's refusing to take medical scans Just a disaster of a team He was also starting this week Then we've got Chuba Hubbard The rankings seem to care about Jonathan Brooks being back

I don't care about Jonathan Brooks The Panthers don't care about Jonathan Brooks. Nobody cares about Jonathan Brooks. Chuba Hubbard doesn't give a fuck about Jonathan Brooks. Chuba Hobber is going to see more snaps than he's ever seen before while Jonathan Brooks hopes dreams to one day see the Miles Sanders role in the Carolina Panthers offense. I'll continue with the revenge game theme and go with Jerry Judy against Denver Broncos. I'm not sure if Sedgwick Tillman's going to play, but I can spin this either way if he plays.

I think he's going to play the X-Yide position. I think he's going to draw a lot of Pat Surtain. If he doesn't, no one has ever run wind sprints like Jammari Thrash was running wind sprints on Thursday night. That guy was out there for every snap after Sedric Tillen went out. And he was not getting looked at. They were played 10 to 11. That guy was just full-on cardio central.

So I think Judy will have a chance to get probably 10 James Winston targets this week while they chase points with the mighty Bow Nix. And a tight end this week, I first looked and I said, man, after all of our offseason discourse, sure is pretty crazy to see Sam LaPorte sitting out there at tight end 16 behind such illustrious names as Will Disley and Hunter Henry and Kate Otten and Taysam Hill and Johnny Smith. And I'm thinking like, you know, I got to take Sam LaPorte. I mean, you know, Brock Bowers would have only been able to dream of having a Rick. season is good as Sam LaPorte. And now he's going behind Will Disley.

That can't make sense. And then I thought about it. And I thought, no, Will Disley's going to score more points than that fucking bum. Will Disley. I play that this week. Yeah, I too wish Sam LaPorteur got the opportunity to benefit from the hurry up offense

with being down X amount of points in garbage time. But unfortunately, that Lions team is just too damn good. And that's just the way it is. Okay. we forgot this guy's question and we do have to hit it he did ask it a while he asked it at 748 and it is now two hours later he did say with the current warp advantages

to running back this is actually going to be really easy for us to answer to rb's and the league's defense is running heavy cover too do you lean into heavier rb build in startups next year or will you stick with the wider sewer build and hope positive regression occurs. I think this is a great question, but I think this is fairly easy for us to answer in the short.

I'll let someone else take first lead if they'd like. Otherwise, I can answer this pretty quickly. So this may not be short, but I can start. So warp or however you want to measure that, something to keep in mind is that it's always results based in terms of like it, it's not necessarily predictive, right?

Like I got on the internet last off season and wrote an article all about how the running back position had been completely, like, winnowed out. Like there was no running back production anymore. There was only Christian McCaffrey and like a couple of guys that you could hit on late. And that was the story of the 2023 fantasy season. Obviously the 2024 fantasy season's story is quite a bit different, right? We have at, as I guess I was kind of admonishing earlier in the show, we had a couple of older running backs on new teams, average six yards per carry and be insanely efficient and look awesome on these teams, right? And that's not something we've had happened in a very long time, kind of no matter how you slice the data or the warp or the war over the last 10 years plus, right? every as Scott Barrett says every single season is its own special snowflake I think is his favorite

way to put that something to keep in mind this season every single wide receiver got hurt almost no running backs have gotten hurt and honest to God that that is probably the biggest determinative factor in terms of like which position was the winner in fantasy every single season the first year I played fantasy football seriously was 2015 that was notably the year that every single running back in the first round, except for Adrian Peterson, got hurt by like week six and was out for the season. And that you had like league winning David Johnson as like a 10th plus round pick as a rookie. It was pretty cool. It was a fun season. But the season after, everybody was suddenly going zero R.B. Or at least we were

drafting more wide receivers in the first round than we ever. really would again until like 2020 or so, right? Yeah. There's always a reaction to the previous season. I think in general, it's probably going to be profitable on average to fade the reaction to the previous season. I will see like what the market prices look like and I might be seeing a different tune six months from now.

But that, yeah, I'm not changing my view on the running back position in Dynasty because of the runouts we've had from the from like the Derek Henry's and the Alvin Cameras that honestly you weren't like building your startup strategy necessarily around or these are guys that on a contender

you were buying decently cheaply before the season and you got really happy if you hit on that. So yeah, that's all I have to say. Great point. I think that answer is pretty much everything I was going to say. Yeah, I'm not going to overreact to this. I'm going to continue to navigate the strategy that I feel like I can do best.

And I think long term, like at the end of the day, these running backs are scoring, but look at the values in leagues and how difficult it is to trade them to this day. It's still difficult. They're a hard asset to move in season and off season. It's for an asset that is the driving force between championships, right, right? You build the running backs is the last thing you need, nailing the coffin, put you over the top. But these elite running, can't trade them. So no one wants to buy them.

I'm still, I still want the more fluid assets. It's going to be picks, receivers, and elite quarterbacks and tight ends that apparently doesn't include Sam Laporta. And I'm going to cry about that for a couple of years yet. So that's what I have.

And I will say at least like for the running back position, they're averaging between 5% and 10% higher war per game than they have in the past 10 years. So this is a little bit. of an outlier in terms of just having this deep of production. We're still seeing like the cap is basically the same in war per game. Dei or Sequin Barclay is having a crazy good season so far. Derek Henry's having a great season is outperforming what the RB2 typically is doing. And if you're going down the line, you're seeing they're outperforming where historically

we are at the right back position. But also this kind of just depends on your league setup. As it happens with war, like your league's up as incredibly. important to how you're looking at. If you're in a three wide receiver league, yes, running backs have been awesome, but still definitely be going into the wide receiver heavy type builds there. And then, you know, you can pick up running backs later on. Yep. I think that the biggest thing is you just don't want to be dogmatic and dynasty in any respect, because I totally agree with all of the stuff about the cyclical nature of the positions. But the thing that is always true,

of the running back position, especially in Dynasty, is that it is a function so much of who winds up falling into volume in good situations at specific times where, you know, Chase Brown is a guy that can go from being a complete zero in year one as a third round rookie pick to a guy who's going to probably score comparatively the rest of this season to all of the elite running backs that we're talking about, you know, in part due to being a little bit better than we thought, and in large part, frankly, due to circumstances being pretty beneficial towards him where they decide to go in with him and Moss, Moss gets hurt, and now it's Chase Brown, you know, getting the entire pie

in a really good offense. So you also look at with Dynasty, people are always going to be afraid of investing heavily in these older running backs because they don't want it to go to zero. And that makes sense. And it kind of comes down a little bit to your league, right? Like, I'm always experiencing this paradox where on one end, my rankings are almost always below like a keep trade cut or the Dynasty Data Lab ADP on a lot of the veteran running backs. But then if I go to my roster ship, I'm always above the market on most veteran running backs. The reality is it's just like the leagues that I play in in my bubble of Twitter are devaluing running backs and especially older running backs to a degree that is just markedly lower than when we're

talking about keep trade cut. So for me, I don't think that like the keep trade cut value on running backs is particularly representative. I bet that a lot of people listening to this program that the running back costs in their league are more similar to what I'm talking about in my leagues and they are in keep trade cut too. And I bet for sure in some of your home leagues, it's the opposite where they are being valued more akin to that theoretical KTC value.

In those leagues, if the Henrys and the Cameras and the mixins and stuff like, those guys are all costing ones on a consistent basis, not just like when they're hot or not just somebody's overpaying, but like you have to pay ones to get veterans starting running backs, then sure, I'm way more open-minded to paying up big time in those leagues for the bejones and the breezes, etc. But like the main reason why I don't usually pay up for young running backs that much

in a lot of my leagues, especially that second tier of young running backs, is because I know in most of my leagues I can very consistent, get the 27, 28, 29 plus running backs for a very affordable cost pretty much whenever I need to. So if that is your league, if you can get James Connors for late twos, Aaron Joneses for late twos and the like whenever you need, then no, I don't think you should react to this year by dramatically increasing the valuation that you have on, you know, the Kyron Kenneth Walker, like that tier of running back.

but it really depends on what your specific league market is. And I think it's a little bit less about, it's about VARP, but it's about VORP relative to cost is what it's about. And you want to make sure that you're making a cost-efficient choice for that value over production and dynasty because the market is a lot more dynamic in dynasty than it is in looking at redrafts,

where it's a lot more about, okay, who's scoring more points at what cost. Yeah. You're not wrong. I will say, though, every year, the zero RB is like kind of done wrong. I fell for this a little bit like I passed on round seven Ken Walker. That's clearly a mistake.

Like we shouldn't be afraid to buy running backs from the right price. But we can be smart about it too. So there you go. There's your bonus. We're at two hours and eight. It's actually under the average. Believe it or not. So shout out to all you guys.

We love you guys. Always do. That's going to do it. That's going to do it for today's show. Don't worry. Even though it's Thanksgiving, we do still. We are still recording a Thursday. episode of the Dynasty Points Market Report, myself and Andy Buckler.

That'll be out Friday on the Dynasty Points podcast feed. You'll get it Sunday morning on the Fancy Points Now feed. Remember, if you're listening, you want this in podcast form. Please go to the Dynasty Points feed. You're not sure where you can get that. You can get that at FancyPoints.com under the media selection. You can just search us up. We're not hard to find.

The Fancy Points Now feed will be dissolving. You'll only be able to get us there. and I want to make sure everyone listening makes sure to find us when that happens. With that being said, I hope you all enjoy your holiday season. Try to get along with your in-laws. I understand that that can be difficult during the holidays. Not that I would know. And try to keep in mind that there are people on the other side of your screens.

Check in on your loved ones, even if you're not sure that they need it, remember that clear eyes and far hearts can never lose in your best days. God damn, they're always spent tilting right here with us. Good night, everybody. Much love as always.