Fantasy Football Daily - Dynasty Moves To Make Right Now To Profit Later | 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football

Episode Date: May 15, 2024

Dynasty Points lays out some of the crucial dynasty moves you need to make right now. So you can turn a profit at the end of the year and build a team juggernaut in May. Beating ADP and knowing when you have an advantage is one of the sharpest tools in your toolbox with guest Ryan Heath's help. Dynasty Points will show you how to carve your dynasty fantasy leagues. Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us: twitter.com/ElNostraThomas twitter.com/LGilbertFF twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter -   / fantasypts   Facebook -   / fantasypts   Instagram -   / fantasypts   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is Dynasty Points, the home for Dynasty Fantasy Football content at FantasyPoint.com. Today, fantastic show planned for everyone, breaking down some moves that you need to be making while also answering Discord questions. You're not going to want to miss it. We have Ryan Heath joining us today instead of Jacob Sanderson. We can't wait. Sit tight. Lock in and enjoy.

Big day, big day, big day today. It is Tuesday night, which means there can only be one place you want to be. And it's where you are. It's here, right here at Fantasy Points over on YouTube. I, of course, and your host with the most timeless hands, I am. Thomas, simply can find me at L. Noster Thomas. And my fun fact of the day is that last year, Hendon Hooker was your QB 33 off of draft boards. This time last year.

It just shows you how fast life hits you. Lucas. I'm Lucas Gilbert. you find me on Twitter on X at El Gilbert FF. My fun fact is that the French officials are estimating that five times the number of Americans came to see Taylor Swift in Paris as what they were projecting for coming to the Olympics. So just goes to show you just how absolutely nuts that is.

All right. I am Ryan Heath. You can find me on Twitter at Ryan J. underscore Heath. And my fun fact is that the average. average humans spends a year of their life on the toilet. And I think I'll get up to like three or four years because underdog exists. Oh my God.

There's something you didn't know you needed. Jeez Louise. But look, this is going to be like I said, a jam pack program. I'm excited to be here. The guys are excited to be here. Jacob couldn't be here because he has other important things to do. But he does say he misses you with all of his blue hair and blonde eyes. intro as discussed in the Discord which you should also be in today

which you can do hiding a free account from FantasyPoints.com everything you need will be in there to get yourselves into the Discord so we can discuss things like who has someone actually asked today if we could talk about who has the nicest hair on the program and I truly was offended because it's so clearly and obviously Jacob because he has 10 years on me and I will take that fight forever. Unbelievable. These guys are

setting up for failure. What we are not going to do is set you guys up for failure today. No. These are moves that we think you should be making right now in your fantasy leagues. Oh, I'm excited for this. Ryan, the man himself.

I want to know. When you look at ADPs across the board right now, it's easy to forget where we came from. So if you had to look at the board right now for some values, who do you think is going to last the test of time? Who do you think is going to stand out from here in a month, two months? I would say a big thing I try to approach looking at ADP with is sort of just have,

yeah, as you said, we don't want to have a short memory because it can give us context into what we're looking at right now. So I'd say for example, and maybe this is, sorry if this is a little too much like redrafty, but I think it applies to Dynasty. Okay. So for example, Mike Evans is a player that was being drafted like six, seventh round in redraft for years and years.

Yeah. And similar in Dynasty kind of has had like a slow fall down ADP boards. now this year in redraft, suddenly he's like a fourth round pick or something on Underdog, a third or fourth round pick. And you're going to do it. Yeah, I know.

I got to bring up that best fall ADP any chance I get. But I think this applies to Dynasty too, where a guy that kind of has like the vibe of he's old, he's going to be falling down the ADP boards. But if he produces in a given year.

Suddenly the narrative completely shifts and it's, oh, he's only 29 years old. And I think all of that is Amari Cooper right now, basically. Yeah, I like that a lot. I like Amari Cooper as a buy. He just seems to have, it's kind of weird, like he did so well,

and a lot of people discount what he did with Watson in the lineup. Like, people actually seem to forget that Amari Cooper was still bawling when Watson was not. Yeah, I mean, overall last year, wide receiver 17 in fantasy points per game. He averaged under eight fantasy points per game in his six games with Dorian Thompson, PJ, P.J. Walker, and Jeff Driscoll. Yes, he played with all of those. Wow.

Last year. But with Deshawn Watson, he averaged 17.6 fantasy points per game, top five in yards per outrun. He was an elite wide receiver one with Deshawn Watson. This isn't even including that like 40 point game with flacco at the end of the year where he also balled out. So I just think it's kind of unbelievable right now that you can buy Amari Cooper for like a late second or an early third depending on which of these platforms you're looking at in their valuation. So he's someone I'm actively trying to go out and buy in Dynasty right now. I think he not only is he a great piece for a contender, but even just as a value bet, I kind of like him. And in redraft, I'm going to have a lot.

Just had to get that in there. Those darn underdog ADPs on these dynasty shows. No, I like him. He's actually right at, he's ranked right now on our friends over there at Keep Trade Cut right beside Zamir White. Like that's the price you pay. And like I've talked about before in this program, I love Zemir White. in this offseason.

I'm taking the wide receiver. Like that's just so Amari Cooper is apparently a guy that that we need to be going and tracking down because oh my lord. I think there's just a general. There seems to be like a vet pocket of those wide receivers though. More this year than any other year, I guess, because I'm seeing Godwin, Deontay, Calvin, Keenan Allen, all these PPR spam gods, Cooper. right, DeVante is way cheaper than he should be.

It's just this is the peak time to buy aging vet wide receivers. This is just the time. I think one of the more interesting things with Amari Cooper, though, is just how wide a range of value he has in trades. I'm looking through Dynasty League football right now and their trade finder. There's one in here, Dantavian Wicks for Amari Cooper and a 210. I did see one that was Amari Cooper at 2026 first. Like those are two.

very different valuations. And I would assume that most of your leagues, you're going to have owners who look at it the same way. There's definitely got to be somebody out there who just feels gross hanging on to Amari Cooper and is probably willing to sell him for magic beans at this point. Another trade,

Nico Collins for Sam Darno Javonte Williams and Mari Cooper. Like, it just doesn't make sense for somebody who, I don't know if he's your wide receiver three on your team. That's just a screaming value. And that's about where you're drafting him. That's going to really help you win weeks. That's a lot of wins to be putting into your wide receiver three slot.

Yeah. And with Amari Cooper, it's literally just that the vibes are bad. It's that Sean Watson has bad vibes. And that's kind of all it is. At least it in years past when we saw this with Mike Evans, for example, it's, oh, he's going from the greatest quarterback of all time to Baker Mayfield. There's at least like something underpinning that ADP movement. There literally isn't for Amari Cooper at like at all.

It's just vibes. Yep. And we want to take advantage of those all the time. Like just the players he's going around, Terry McLaren, Jaden Reed, Cooper Cup. He's just very attainable. Someone has him out there. And like Lucas showed, wide range of costs. but there's another player.

Well, there's a couple of players that I do want to talk about. I think there's a specific player that is absolutely being done horrendously dirty by the dynasty community right now. And it's Ty Chandler. Ty Chandler's getting done dirty by the dynasty community. And I've seen the sigh. I've seen that. I saw that, right?

Maybe that was a little long-winded for maybe just a me's, the old backup, but nana, if you look at last season and how good Ty Chandler was when he got the opportunity, people were like, well, how good is good for these running backs? I say, don't realize how good he was. Some people might look at him and go, he wouldn't even, he wouldn't crack my starting lineup, bro. Well, he's the RB 61 on Fantasy Calc. He's the RB 64 on keep trade cut and is undrafted to now in May in, in

startups from what I can find. People at this time of the year, last year, were still drafting retired Tom Brady. He made startup ADP for this time last year. And what you're leaving off your rosters because of an aging Aaron Jones on a one-year contract who needs to stay healthy, when you remove the four carry and one reception game in week 12 from week 10 to the end of the year, Chandler wrote. 12 points per game on an expected 11 points per game in this offense and had in case you forgot whoever had to start him in week 15 over 20 points in a week 15 game for what exactly what you

needed that is definition week winning for your roster being undrafted why i like him so much even though maybe he's hashtag not that good or maybe he's just a backup but i'm sorry you're giving me free 12 flex points on my on my bench potentially in this system it's free it doesn't cost you anything that's why I get excited not necessarily excited because I think the talent

is so out there is that you have to pay nothing for what you know you can already get compared to some of the some of the other players going within that range to me is free money yeah yeah I'll add a couple points of support to this actually is I like I'll roll my eyes because it's Ty Chandler and we're discussing back our running backs.

But hey, to be fair, hold on, to be fair, Ty Chandler's a type of guy you need to be talking about right now in May for your Dynasty. I don't know if you know this or not, but trying to acquire a running back is like pulling teeth for something. If you don't want to pay the iron price. No, you're correct. But I, yeah, I'm with you.

I just obviously expectations were setting them at a certain place. But as far as Chandler himself goes, I will say all the way back at the combine, Kevin O'Connell had like a standout clip talking about how Ty Chandler was going to be their workhorse going into the year. And yeah, coaches lie and say all sorts of crazy stuff at the combine all the time. But number one, it stuck out just the certainty of it stuck out to me. I'll have to go back and find that clip after. but number two, he may not have been lying.

Like the only move the team made was signing a surprise cut Aaron Jones. Yeah. I don't think it's unbelievable to imagine that he could have been speaking somewhat truthfully in that moment. So yeah, I like to pay attention to that stuff. And the other thing is Aaron Jones in front of him just had one of like the bottom 12, bottom 15 or so least efficient seasons against his weighted opportunity we've seen in the last decade those guys almost always see less opportunity the following year i have a big article coming out

about this at some point in the near future that kind of outlines all of it but jones is a big fade for me this year so yeah i just logically happy to take shots on someone like ty chamler based on that yeah and errant's somebody who struggled with entries all throughout his career and And as Thomas was saying, you can basically give him for free, throw a fourth round pick to whoever has Ty Chandler. And that's pretty much done deal. I saw a trade that was Ty Chandler for $100 and fab. So I don't know. That's a little wild to say the least that you can get that sort of insurance policy.

Like the insurance policies that you should be targeting like right now, that that's just unreal. And who is he have to compete with on that team? other than Aaron Jones for the RB2 spot. I guess what Dwayne McBride is probably his biggest competition. They really didn't go out and target anyone else. I think that Minnesota is very comfortable with him being the RB2. He has shown that he can handle the workload, even if it's not super efficient,

but he does everything that you want somebody to do. He gets red zone work. He catches the ball. He can be on the field for every single down. he just would have to have that opportunity. And I would much rather have him than a wide receiver that you will probably never start. But you're like, oh, he has promise, even though I haven't seen him since he was a fifth round pick back in 2022. And he's just been riding the bench since then.

Yeah. Tyler Scott. Yeah. Those are the people you move off of create room for somebody like Ty Chandler to come on your bench for practically free and have that really good insurance policy. Like you said, he catches the ball. and only one of his, like, since in that week 10 benchmark that I set, only one of those games, he didn't have multiple receptions. So it's not a lot, but it's kind of there. It's at least kind of there.

So I like that move. We have a few more players that we want to talk about. But before we get into that, and I dive deep into the Galaxy Brain takes with the mates, we are going to take a break. If you're watching over on you, if you're watching on X, you want to come over to YouTube. Head over to the channel. like and subscribe the channel leave a comment let us know what type of content you want in the future

this show doesn't exist without all of you so sit tight and we'll be back right after this all right crunch time Ryan I know there's another player deep in your bag of galaxy brain thoughts that you think

needs to be acquired or traded away immediately sure so I don't know if it's really that galaxy brain it's kind it's become more and more of a consensus opinion i feel like over the past being humble yeah but well no i'm not being humble i when i say it's become more consensus i'm implying that i was the first to it and that yes i was the first person to figure this out i am the smartest person yes so no not humble at all i tried it you just i'm punching rings

i'm glad i'm glad you think that that's the direction i was going i'm glad you have that high of an opinion of my character. Anyways, sell Josh Jacobs. That's the take. Look, you need to sell Josh Jacobs before training camp starts because there will be a video of Marshawn Lloyd running really fast and running really far and people will get excited about it and that will affect his value. Whether we think that's fair or not, that's a different question.

But this is how these things tend to work. As soon as you see Marshawn Lloyd on the field, making a move, making someone miss, it's, oh, Josh Jacobs is the RV12 in Dynasty right now, and he's on a pseudo one-year deal, and he could be losing work to Marshawn Lloyd, oh, my God, and then it's over. And that's even before we get to my actual opinion of Josh Jacobs this season and my actual projection for him, which is also very poor, similarly to Aaron Jones. Jacobs, I believe, is in the top five least efficient seasons of the past decade last year. Career lows in yards per tent, mistackles force.

It's like bottom five in yards after contact per attempt. He just didn't have it last year. And guys who don't have it generally don't see as much volume the following year. Like he's on a list with guys like Leonard Fournett and Carlos Hyde and Zeke at the end of his time in Dallas and Andre Ellington. Like these are the names that he is comparable to in the efficiency department last year. And that makes me scared. It's not that efficiency like says whether you're a good running back or that efficiency is the most important thing in fantasy football. It's at the outlier levels, guys who are really inefficient usually don't keep their roles.

We saw it with Tony Pollard last year. He gets this new role super inefficient. No one expects him to keep that role this year and Tennessee. Dallas got rid of him. The Raiders did not resign Josh Jacobs. I just feel like the thought that he suddenly walks back into 17 weighted opportunities per game is just unbelievable. And his dynasty value crashes if he doesn't have a top five workload this year. So yeah, I just just sell Josh Jacobs. There's an interesting players on Keep Trade Cut that go right around where he is. And I'm on your side here. I'm

selling you don't have to talk me into marshawn Lloyd I'm just I'll be honest I'll be honest but you're right everyone's expecting the Packers to run Jacobs like the Raiders had been but we know what LaFleur does and it's not that he wants rotational pieces and I'm sorry

but if you're not getting you know 90 85% workload Josh Jacobs I think Josh Jacobs might be what the dynasty community thought he was three years ago just now we we weren't wrong.

We were just early. As, as always. Great, great, great spot. I see the questions. Oh, we're answering one right now. Where do you take Lloyd in a one QB draft? This makes things very hard for me, it being one QB,

because it takes like 11 picks for me to maybe care about Caleb Williams. And then, like, a lot of that second round I might, like, grab a quarterback, maybe depending on who's there. But I would say probably at the 15th spot. 15 players deep. I'd probably start hammering these running backs

because a ton of wide receivers are going to get overdrafted, in my opinion. So I like Lloyd. I like him 28 to 212 in a Superflex. Give me anywhere from 15 to pick 17 in a single QB. And I'm probably going to be really happy with that. So I think that honestly in Superflex, you can start looking at them around 206.

and that's really not that ridiculous. I've been saying all offseason, you want to be early on this second tier of running backs because they dry up really quick. Those that have the quote, elite traits that should be translating to the NFL that have pretty good landing spots. I don't know if we want to put Jailien right up there now

just because of him going to Miami. I still think that he can work out there, but it's a little bit more uncertain than it was going into the draft. It's more projecting. Marshawn Lloyd. Yeah, I agree. But like someone like Marshaun Lloyd, who has a really good landing spot just in terms of how Green Bay can use their running backs and the success we've seen out of that backfield, you definitely want somebody like that. If you have to overdraft them over people like an ad and I Mitchell potentially, I'm fine with that.

That might be a little too extreme, but I'm still really good with that. Jalen Polk, somebody who I routine. Liam seeing going around 206, mainly because I've been drafted him there. But I can see leagues where Marshall Lloyd goes in front of Polk. And then after you get out of the first round wide receivers, out of the Ricky Piersols, maybe the Xavier Ligatz, that's where you really want to start hammering him. Yeah, I pretty much completely agree.

In one QB, I'm fine at like 201, 202. Yeah, yeah, it's kind of weird there, just contextual on like the value and the depth of QB in your specific league, which I find varies even more in one QB leagues. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But yeah, in Superflex, I have him ranked as the rookie 206.

I've taken him there. I try to take him later in the second. You often can get him there. But yeah, I'll take him over the Polks, the Mitchells, the Legates. Yeah, totally fine with that. No, love that. This is a great question. It's said good, really nice.

Also shout out to Hollywood in the chat. if you're listening to this on the podcast feeds and you want to know what are they talking about with chat well you can come live with us at 830 central 930 Easter time every week on the fantasy points YouTube channel we do answer questions live as much as we can I mean half of this program is going to be just reading questions so you're going to want to be locked in it's the off season right so we know context and more content is needed for you guys we don't mind making these long so long as you guys are here and watching and keeping tabs, which you guys have been showing up and showing out. And we love that for you. We have some Nerf, man. I see your question about Dak. We can touch on that in a moment. We're still looking for a couple players that we need to be moving on now,

just like AMC was moving on the stock market yesterday. My Lord, those guys just start pumping that up once again. That's what we're doing. We're pumping some of these players up just like AM. see that's right we're smart financial bros on this podcast too so there you go don't don't do anything don't don't buy it i never mind i take it don't buy anything don't go look at it uh just because i told like i mentioned it don't do that that horrendous consequences i'm terrible with my money don't don't what i'm not terrible we're missing jacob yeah as i said on the last pod

whatever we're talking about diversifying portfolios and dynasty leagues like Jacob's out here. He has like the multi-million dollar stock options that he's playing around with. These guys trust fund back there that he's just pumping into a whole bunch of different things because he's in 50 some odd leagues and can actually have stuff that you measure in percentages. I'm out here with my hundred bucks and Charles Schwab going, I can only buy one stock. What am I betting on today in my nine league?

So maybe it's a little bit more than a hundred bucks. But that's. Oh. Yeah. Maybe I should have bought in AMC though. Finance pros. You can bring me on for the dynasty content. You can't bring me on for the financial content.

The extent of my investing experience is buying S&P 500 in charge. I got Lego. So that's all that I do. That's all I have to add to this. These are my investments. All right. That shows you how good I am with my money. All right.

One day maybe I'll do a Lego reveal, but I don't know. I'm going to compare AMC. to Sam Howe last season. Oh, whenever he got the gig. There was a time where Sam, how there were people arguing he should be valued just like a top 15 quarterback. Yeah.

And dang, I did not trade him then. So I'm holding the bag still, but it was also a free bag to start off with. It just, it makes you sad, wherever you have stocks like that, that get really high.

And you're like, I'm going to keep holding, even though it didn't cost me anything at all to get these. And then you don't trade. off. Uh-oh, you look offended. Well, with Sam Howell, this is what ticks me off. Okay. This really, this really, you know, irks

me. Is we let quarterbacks in ambiguous situations fall. Sam Howell was the QB 33 this time last year, from May 1st to today. QB 33. And all he had to do was hope that they'd let him throw the ball. That's it. And his value would have gone up.

Why are we drafted? bums that just will never matter for our dynasty teams and not just taking these shots. Because like you said, I was able to move him for two first last year. People were looking at him as a top 10 quarterback because, oh, Sam Hal was a top four scoring quarterback in fantasy when he was about to get benched. And people were actively not looking at the fact that it was just empty calories. It was the ramen noodles of fantasy football scoring. and they still did not want to let go.

And now we're letting Daniel Jones be QB30. You're wondering how I was going to segue to that? There it is. Ramen noodles. Might be one of my most impressive feats yet. What is really impressive is that the fantasy community is looking at a guy that didn't get replaced, added an elite weapon, still has this contract, will be healthy enough to start the year, runs, though, how much doesn't matter. But when you're getting them at QB30 at Fantasy Cal, QB20,

QB 29 at Keep Trade Cut. He's being drafted as a QB 32. He had 16 points per game in his last, last healthy season. Now, round four, Daniel Jones, last year at this time, hell no. We said it over and over and over. Some of the names being drafted around where we're letting Daniel Jones slip to at this time last year, Jimmy G. Hendon Hooker, Rip, Desmond Ritter, Rip, like just nobody's. We have a potential 16 point per game quarterback.

with a potential to win a week on a team being coached by an offensive mind. And he just got neighbors and an athletic is held tight end. And no running game behind him, except we're hoping for Tyrone Tracy. But realistically, we've got the cockroach at running back and Tyrone Tracy. And then that's it. They're throwing the ball. And we're letting a potential 16 to 18 point for game quarterback slip to the 30s.

we smash these guys. This is how we got Brock Purdy. This is how we got Jordan Love. This is how we got Baker Mayfield, even last year, QB34. Now we're getting Daniel Jones staring us in the face. This is how we got multiple years of Ryan Tannahill and just so many other quarterbacks at just value, starting value. You can shit on Ritter as you want like I did. Fair.

But guess what? That dude was in Millie Maker lineups last year, regardless of how bad the Falcons were and was winning you weeks on occasion in the NFL. I fell, regardless of how absolute dog water he was. And we're letting Daniel Jones do the same thing. Maybe Daniel Jones this year is just Ritter with a contract. I don't know. But we're worried about Drew Locke. Draft them both.

I don't even care at this point. But we got to be buying in on these guys. Cheap, super flex quarterbacks that can legitimately start with these weapons. Oh, baby. Oh, baby. I need it. Can I push back a little? Sure.

Okay. What is Daniel, Jones have to do this year to keep his job the following year? What do or let me rephrase that. What does Daniel Jones have to do this year to convince people that he is a long-term asset at the quarterback position? Because I don't know if there's really anything he can do. I think people are so out on Daniel Jones that he's just the most dead man walking quarterback in the league right now. And almost no matter what happens, I think the Giants bring somebody in next year. I think all he has to do keep his job in a weak projected quarterback class is make sure they don't fall somewhere in the bottom 10 in record.

And they're just going to keep rolling the dice because who else are they realistically going to bring in? They haven't shown a willingness to go out and get somebody who they don't think is not going to be like a franchise quarterback. They had opportunities. I mean, let's be real. If Dax made available from Dallas, you know, they're just sending them $300 million. But here's why I don't think it matters as much, Ryan, to your point. QB 30 on the board, I don't need longevity. Personally, I need this ability where Jeremy mentions that I won championships with Jake Browning.

He's free at the most valuable position. And like we preface this whole thing with Sam Howell. He does anything, anything for any period of time. Awesome. Maybe you can move them for something if you truly don't believe in, in him at all. Sure, but Sam Howell didn't have like a five-year history of being a below replacement level quarterback in the league at this point last year.

So I just don't see it as I agree. But what I have seen in my unbelievably large amount of leagues that I shouldn't have, because every time I talk about going and getting a player, someone already has them on the roster, because I don't have enough time to do waivers. It's really taking me off. But besides the point. Someone is going to value that guy at some point. And even if they don't, what's the worst thing that happens to you?

You took a guy in the 13th or 14th round of a startup that started for you at the most important position when, like you said, last year, in a year we had Jake Browning needing to come off the bench. Nick Mullins throwing 400 yards. Dobbs was like a story. Right? And you could trade them for a second at points in the season last year. And we're getting this guy at free with, I'm sorry, the 25 class. for quarterbacks, not ideal. Maybe they do make the run at DAC.

I don't know. But he, right, Flacco, exactly. And like Brian said, 67 quarterback started last year. You're getting a legitimate producer. If another quarterback got neighbors in an offensive, like a plus offensive system like we think dabble had, people would be losing their mind. But we're not.

And this guy's, again, just absolutely free, too free, in my opinion. Yep, you can get them for about the two away or someone like Jerry Judy. Those trades are happening right now. Oh, if you can trade Jerry Judy, who has such an undefined role, whenever there's other wide receivers too in Cleveland that I kind of like better because Jerry Judy's broken my heart too many times. For somebody that you can put into your super flex spot who can get you somewhere

between 22 and 18 points per game on the good side, he has that capability. We've seen that happen. Yeah. That's that's that's that's that's that's so easy that that's such an easy deal to make. Yeah. You can talk me into that really fast. Like that's that's not going to be hard to do. Speaking of Jerry Judy,

why receiver 23 off the board and a round five pick this time last year? Man, do you want to hear some of the decisions you had to make around Jerry Judy last year? This is just despite you, Lucas. I know you said to how much fun you like having every week when you come on this show. But I couldn't actually let you have a happy moment here. DJ Moore, Jerry Judy, Debo Samuel, Michael Pittman Jr. And Jordan Addison all went back to back to back to back to back at this time last year.

Enjoy that decision, whoever took Judy. Jesus Christ. Like that is massive season. Okay, you know, pretty okay season. Michael Pittman, better season than we expected than Addison, one of the better rookie seasons this year. Just disgusting. Enjoy Cleveland, buddy. We're going to take a quick.

break and pour one out for Jerry Judy. Get some final thoughts on some moves to be made. A little bit of theory on that because we touched on a little bit of it and I'd like to expand on it while we have the time. Sit tight. Then we're going to do questions after this next little bit here. Enjoy. So let's talk about the theory of acquiring players that we can identify as, for the most part, identify and agree on Ryan, that are goodbyes. at their ridiculously cheap price

because this is the time of year where ageism really kicks in. Some of the trades out there and Lucas, I'm going to get you to read me a few that you went and found from recently. Some of the trades out there are just insane for quote unquote contending teams.

We're getting a lot of late seconds for very usable wide receivers and that to me it's just cash money. Oh, hold on. Gino Smith. Myth is QB 22, who I love, okay, but we're not willing to, uh, last year at this time, but we're not willing to give Danny Dimes like any love for this year in the same period of, in the same period of a draft. Daniel Jones is inefficiently priced.

Fine. That's, I agree with you. That's fine. I just wanted to offer a little bit of pushback so that we could have a more substantive conversation. That was my role in that. segment. You don't need to keep piling on me. Stantive conversation. Oh, my goodness. All right. Well, I just got big worded out.

I thought I was going to get away from that with Jacob not here. Now I've got homework to go and do and figure it out because I have no idea what you just said. I probably just pronounce, I'm pretty sure I pronounce the word wrong. So don't, don't sweat it. For me, there are just obvious cases for me that stand out for quarterback. I have been late round quarterback shopping in Dynasty for years. I have been. have a list of a few that I'd like to mention because a lot of people are really into the like Matthew Stafford, Kurt Cousins tier of these quarterbacks. Quarterbacks that I want on the back end of my roster that are very affordable right now,

especially in startups and you should be going to acquire. Quarterback 33, Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson had a sneaky okay QB2 type season last year and they have to be really bad for Wilson not to play all year next year. I know Jacob was talking about this with Justin Fields. No, I'm going to guess that Tomlin is really going to give Wilson a crack. And at QB 33, why not? Gardner Minchu, QB 34.

He had some upside games last year. And now he gets Devante Adams and Brock Bowers. I already mentioned Daniel Jones. I won't do that again. Derek Carr at QB 31 and, of course, my boy, Gino Smith, who's now become too cool at round 11. But Derek Carr also at 31. So we're getting starting legitimate quarterbacks at the 13th, 14th, and 15th round in startups right now.

That is, that is too far for me. That is too many viable weapons. If you're worried about I need to get a third quarterback. Oh, man, my team doesn't have a third. Don't pay up. Pay smart. Take a shot at these old guys that can do you from weekend and week out. We have to.

So I think it was about three years ago, whenever we were still full tilt dynasty. And we had JJ Zach reason on. And he was talking about the ambiguous backfield theory. Yeah. I think for dynasty, it's the ambiguous whatever positional group theory that you want to throw in there. Those are the players where you want to go and you want to start buying. All of the quarterbacks that we've been talking about are in ambiguous rooms, but there's a true leader in them. and then there's a player that people want to see potentially get an opportunity, but they probably won't get an opportunity.

Those are the corebacks you should be going and getting. You were mentioning Gamari Cooper earlier, and the whole Cleveland wide receiver room is kind of ambiguous, but he's also being brought down even though he's the clear one in that room because there's so much unknowns behind him. I think Deontay Johnson is a very good example too, where he should be the clear wide receiver one in that room, and then it's really messy and gross behind him. But he's somebody who's going in like the wide receiver 40s. Like there's so many different times that this is happening. We talked about Ty Chandler, very ambiguous behind Aaron Jones.

Go and get the people in messy situations. And those should be the easiest spies that you can have throughout the off season. Yep. We have that with Don Tadian Wicks. He's another example. We had a what are we doing with the Packers, wide receivers question. I am moving up to good. and find this question.

But that's what my answer is, whoever's cheapest. That's why I want that offense. Right now it's Wix. Same thing. Other guys getting bumped up, and here we are, Widerceiver 64,

with similar opportunities. I think there are a couple examples of this happening, and to me, that's one of the things that I'm identifying. If there's like a clear, quote-unquote fan favorite,

give me the cheaper one in these ambiguous situations. 100%. Yeah, I think the Texans, wide receiver room is probably a little different from that perspective. But Stefan Diggs is right now, I believe last time I checked, he's the cheapest wide receiver there by a considerable margin, mainly just because of his age and what was starting to happen at the end of last season from an efficiency standpoint.

But that's someone who should still have a very clearly defined role this season within ascending offense. That's somebody that I think is another buy currently in the offseason because somebody wants to get out while they still can. Yeah. I mean, really, the Texans were that last year, if we're being real. And this year's version of the Texans in terms of an ambiguous wide receiver core, it's the Patriots.

Sorry, sorry to say. But Demerio Douglas, Julian Polk, people like their Javon Baker, which is fine, too. I'll take him in the third round of rookie drafts, I guess. I want to take shots there because. Yeah, if Drake May is good, at least one of those guys is getting dragged up the boards with them, if not multiple. So, yeah, I especially where it is multiple guys who could benefit and we're not really sure. And the price absolutely reflects that. Yeah, that's where I'll take the shots.

Yeah. I think we're also seeing it in Pittsburgh this season too, both with their running backs and their wide receiver rooms. George Pickens is getting moved up. And I've never been picking sky, but right now might be a good time to go and buy him for what they are projected to be doing. Same with the running backs there because there's so much discussion about if it's going to be Warren or if it's going to be Najee Harris. And it's gross. I might throw up while I'm saying it. I kind of want to buy Najee Harris.

And it just hurts inside because it feels like that really shouldn't be something that I should be saying right now. But I do think that Naugie Harris. is a buy at running back 26. And what I think he's going in the eighth round of startups right now? I'm kind of okay with that. I'm with you on the backfield. I feel like people are extremely certain one way or another about Pickens. So I don't know how much he qualifies here.

I feel like everyone's opinion on George Pickens is either, yes, he, like he's the next coming of Jerry Rice or he's garbage. He can't command targets. And I lean more towards the latter side there. But I think it's not, yeah, I don't think it's ambiguous with Pickens in terms of who is going to be getting the targets in Pittsburgh. I think what's ambiguous is how many are they going to be? How much of a functional passing offense will this actually be this year? So, yeah, for that, for that reason, I'm not super into Pickens when the alternatives are like an Addison, a Debo, a Jaden Reeves. Like I'm going elsewhere at that point.

It is interesting. I think round eight is still too high for me on our boy here. But I understand why somebody might want to do that. It's not this guy. Round eight, round nine, Najee Harris. No, thank you. Give me round 11, Zach Moss. These are the type of things that I look at.

These are the type of things that when you're looking at, how do I identify? Because obviously you may not be doing startups, but if you're wondering, like, how can I identify some moves that I need to make? these are some of the breakdowns that you're looking at. You've got players in similar-ish situations you can marginally predict to be within a game or so points per game.

I'd be willing to bet that Zach Moss as good an opportunity as Najee Harris does of putting up 10 to 12 points per game this season, but you're paying significantly less. Go and find whatever sourced information that you want and just try to identify these kind of, I guess, outliers, if you would. I think one of the easiest things to do is I know I saw the 33rd team at one point in

time they were putting it out, but there's all these reports about missing targets, missing carries from the previous season. If you start looking at those teams, players within those positional groups, whether it's targets or carries, those are the ones who do see major value changes throughout the off season. Damien Pierce, I think, was it two or three years ago. that was somebody who started out in a really like i think he was a late second round pick wherever he got drafted and then shot up to the 108 for people doing extremely late

to rookie drafts and his value was reflected there now going back in time we would have loved to be able flip him right after that some people i don't want you know completely sell myself out here but some people held on because they thought he might actually be good but you're living you learn. If there's one thing for certain, it's Lucas not being afraid to hang himself out to dry. It's so good. That's what I love about this program, because we do all do it. Just want to point out, don't think I didn't

catch this. It's not Jolini Wood's season in the ambiguous cults room. I am holding out for Kailen Granson, and I will to the day that I die. Kylan Granson is my new Thad Moss, and until he is out of the league like Thad Moss, I am going to continue to believe. Also saw this one from Jeremy Alsbrook. I'm the most excited about 2025,

Kairn Williams in Zemir. Don't see that for Zemir because he doesn't, he's not the past catcher, right? And he's not in that offense. It's important to note that he's an LDD, but we like him because he's in the one offense where being an LDD back might actually be valuable for some reason.

Now, if I'm looking at Zemir's ceiling, it's 22, Damien Pierce. If I'm looking at a running back and I'm just praying to God he succeeds just based on volume, that's the type of offense that we're going to need to see from them. That's my comp form this year. So we will see.

I think that's great. It is important to move on some of these guys. I just want to toss out a couple of extra names, guys that I think that we should be buying to kind of preview. We are recording a Players to Buy video, Ryan and I, this week. It will be out. You're going to want to tune into that. But there are some guys that I'm targeting right now that I feel like deserve

the shoutout as well. I'm taking Nick Chubb at RB29 is a steal of a price. I'm willing to bet on him. I am 100% buying Cortland Sutton at wide receiver 56. He was supposed to not be on that team already. He is still there. Troy Franklin and Mims do not terrify me, really. This is a wide receiver that can still get it done for you at a very, very reasonable price.

So also buying Ezekiel Elliott, RB 49. am actually buying i am buying at that price it may sound insane but i'll also buy dowdell at rb 60 he is the hotness he is what people really like and i just mentioned it but i will be buying on mims at 74 wide receiver 74 that is buying in on that i already mentioned zach moss just a ton of guys that you can get at relatively cheap and i think you should be doing it these guys are so cheap i think you should be going, like Troy Franklin's what, the 304, right? And that's hovering right around Cortland Sutton. Just easy, easy money for that cheap moves.

We think you should be going and making, well, right now, important. You already got me on Cortland Sutton at least once this off season. That one, I will say, I felt a little done dirty, but you did give me the extra, I think, third that I asked for in the deal. So, you know, I came out a winner because I got the last say on somebody moving up. So thank you for making me feel good about that. But yeah, I think that for a competing team, Cortland Sutton's the ideal veteran wide receiver that you want to go out and do.

Nobody really wants to move a second for him. So especially as a throw in, wherever you were trying to make up that little bit of value. I think that he's a really good throw. And I think you got me on that one, but I was still happy with it. So it's fine. You didn't want to give him up. He didn't want to give him up. But I had to talk Lucas into it.

You know, I walk my talk. Deontay Johnson, someone said Deontay Johnson. And look, he might seem like a buy. But you can never actually get him off of somebody that has him at his price of like wide receiver 42 or something. No one's actually giving it. They still want like a first form a lot of times. A real person asked me for a 2025 first for Deonté Johnson. Yeah.

During a. Did Deonté called this time. Some trades for him. Trades that I'm seeing right now on DLF. A.J. Dillion and 206 for Deonté Johnson. Deonté straight up for Brian Robinson. Deonté for Stefan Diggs.

I don't know about that one. That might be pushing it. Deontay in a late third for two late seconds. So it's definitely pause. Where are these people in my life? Because I must play with the most sicko degenerate wide receiver boys ever because I get I get massacred for Deontay Johnson. Anytime I ask, it's bad out there for the streets. Because the people holding on to Deontay Johnson have been doing so since what he was a wide receiver six or something.

And they were trying to say that he's the next elite wide receiver. and they've held onto it for so long. Can't let them go. It's, you know, to just go off on a wild tangent here. It's like whatever I was just trading in my old car. I had for a really long time. I loved my car. Her name was Jennifer.

She was wonderful to me. And I tried to eke every ounce of value out of that car whenever I knew it, and new tires and all these things wrong with it. But dang it, that was my car. That's the one that I had for so long. And, you know, she was, she was a top tier car in their day. It's true. The people holding on are just holding on to misguided dreams, in my opinion.

I say that as somebody that wants to roster him. That's how badly I want to roster this guy is that I will talk shit about him in hopes that his value goes down so I can get him at one rookie pick lower of a cost. All right. I am not beneath trying to use that. God, I just disgusted myself. I always make fun of people that do that. I make fun of Jacob for that on a regular basis, and I just caught myself in 4K doing it.

I will say, I think Deonté Johnson, when you send the trade offer for him, that person, if they're in sort of like the dynasty, Twitter space whatsoever, they see that offer and they're like, this is getting posted on social media, if I accept this.

That's just a media. what runs through your head. Because if I get Deonté Johnson for what I consider to be a modest price, I'm going and posting that on Twitter. I'm, yeah, that's the type of player that I want to just signal to everybody that I'm out here buying. I am so intelligent that I'm getting Deontay Johnson on my team. And you don't want to be on the other side of that.

And I get it. No. I get it. Yeah. It's, he is, he is Twitter darling. He really is. But I just, I just love that somebody pointed out Deonton,

Johnson, it's like, oh, baby, he's not actually, he is, objects are not as close. I have been dying to talk about Deonté Johnson tonight. I tried to, I tried to see if you all would bite earlier talking about ambiguous rooms. I already had all the trades pulled up for him. I was, I was ready. Thank you to whoever did that. I really appreciate it. And thank you for the shout out to Jennifer.

She is dearly missed, but I do like my new car car, Carla. So go, go draft Deonté Johnson and best ball. He's a really good value. Oh, my God. Okay. There we go. We're taking a break. I can't listen to these best ball ADPs anymore.

Absolute degenerate sickos, but I will see you guys on Best Bowl Breakdown, where it's supposed to be, which is on Thursdays, not on Tuesdays. Best Ball Breakdown, myself, Grand Barfield, and Mr. Hillow himself. Not going to want to miss it. So sit tight. We have a break and we come back. I promise we are doing your questions. I promise that is what's happening.

Quick break. Okay, let's lock it in for the people. There are so many, so many side tangents. Just unbelievable. But that's what you get in the off season here. It doesn't stop. First questions, we kind of hit on some of these. So I don't think we have to go in too deep.

With the incoming rookies, the nesting dalt here is like wide receiver 18 to 53 for me now. Who are the startup bargains among, oh my goodness, who are the startup bar? among your nesting dolls, because I can, I can read today. I think we talked about a few of them. We talked about Amari Cooper. We talked about Christian Kirk. We've talked about Deontay Johnson. Mike Evans, all of these guys are kind of all in the same tierish for me.

Of veterans, Calvin Ridley, I'll even put Gabe Davis. These are all guys that are just flat that can all get you about the same. same and are all relatively the same price. So for me, I'm tearing out the bottom of that tier. I'm trying to stay away from the top end of that tier, in my opinion. You're muted, Lucas. He's going to figure it out. Yeah, I'll just go then.

So, okay, yeah, that's, thanks Lucas. Lucas, you're still, I still can't hear you, brother. So we'll talk, yeah, maybe I'll talk about Christian Watson for a minute. Yes, do that. So Christian Watson, I would consider in this, here. I know someone asked about Packers wide receivers earlier. What jumps out to me about Christian Watson is just looking at percentage of catchable targets that every wide receiver had last year, the Packers as a team were doing pretty

well. Jordan Love was a fairly accurate passer. Christian Watson was like bottom five in catchable target rate kind of randomly. Part of that's going to be his more downfield role, those guys on the perimeter especially will tend to see fewer high quality targets. Yeah. But again, that just points to the volatility of this role. And last year, he kind of hit the bad end of every part of that volatility, right? Like he continually was getting injured. He was kind of coming back.

He had a couple really nice games. And then, oh, he's injured again. And we still have that stretch of production during Christmas. Watson's rookie season in the second half that was legitimate wide receiver one level stuff. So I'm happy to take a shot on that in the nesting all tier. I think the Christian Watson price is fully acceptable at this point. And I'm just like I love me some Don Tavian Wicks. Of course, I'm not that convinced on Jaden Reed as like an NFL number one receiver.

I don't know that he ever is getting out of that slot role. So, yeah, I'll take shots in general on the ambiguous Packers wide receiver room. And Watson fits very nicely into that nesting doll tier. Well, considering you're dropped from Jaden Reed at wide receiver 35 to Watson at wide receiver 46. Like that, when you see a gap that big, yeah, I'm willing to take that. Because in between that, you've got that tier that I. I really like. You've got Godwin, Calvin Ridley, like we just talked about Deontay, Christian Kirk. Like, you're singing my wide receivers into my ear right now. Amari Cooper, who we talked

about before, even Terry McLaurin. That is the sweet spot of wide receiver. So if you're telling me that I can drop down from Jaden Reed at his price, still get a piece of that offense for its upside, and land some of these other pieces, that is just an absolute smash me. You're telling me I can walk away. If I just have to, if I just pass on Jaden Reed, I can walk away with a Matthew Stafford,

Deontay Johnson, and Gino Smith combo just to tear down. It's just like, I'm going to do that. I'm going to do that every single time. Lucas, do we fix it?

He's not even trying. He's scared. Yeah, he's not even trying. Oh, okay. No, we still can't, we still don't have Lucas.

That's a damn shame. He's going to figure that out. But we got a couple more questions, Ryan that you and I we're going to sift through. He, uh, he's going to do it. Brian said he is still, still the man Ryan wrote, wrote about last year to me with, with, yeah, people were really, really into Christian Watson last year. Yeah, I'm, I'm doing it again this year.

I, and I'm not sorry. That's kind of all I have to say for myself. Well, we got asked about high value handcuffs in Dynasty. Uh, I, I think it's a little early for the high value handcuffs. conversation. It's hard to know who it actually is. But these you can just really target in multiple ways. You've got LaVey, Tyrone Tracy, Garando, all them are great options. Estimate, all the rookies, phenomenal. Ty Chandler, Rico Dowdell, et cetera. All great. Buckie Irving is another one. I want one of the J.K. Dobbins, Vidal, and Gus Edwards trio. But as for high value,

none of them, right? Maybe Warren or Naji, depending on who's actually better. I don't know, but high value, I don't see a lot of them. Kind of as a rule, if a handcuff is high value, I don't want him on my roster. That's maybe that's like a weird heuristic to have, but especially in May, if we're that certain to the, that he's a handcuff to the point that he's high value, I don't, I think we're overconfident, essentially. I'd add like Ray Davis to that mix of names.

Yes. For like a deeper, deeper cut, Chris Rodriguez may be interesting. So, yeah, that's what I would contribute. Cody Schrader as well. Another guy who's just not drafted. He's at the very bottom of drafts. If Garando is too spicy for you and you don't believe, then I would take the guy that rushed for 1,600 yards in college already being talked

about as being a maybe just a better pure runner than than what Garendo is. So I mean, it's Eli Mitchell and and Tray Sermin all over again. Maybe I don't know. But Brian said Schrader's Scrappy Doe.

He is. Here's that time. Tracey is pretty beautiful. Joliel McLaughlin. I'm to say Jolam McLaughlin or really any Broncos running back I will buy right now. It sounds like Sean Payton has no idea who's going to be getting

touches in this backfield this year. and that's music to my ears for any random Rocko's running back that you want to. Blake Watson's free. Yep. And the only running back in that group that I'm just not paying for is Giovante Williams. Because I've been saying it for a while, his outlook is mortifying at his price. No bloody thank you. But also, please don't handcuff your own running backs.

Let's do that. more questions once I pull them back up now that we are back on track and if you want to know where you can leave some of these questions you can leave them in the fantasy points discord hashtag dynasty points we pick them up we add them to our show sheet and we go through it we have some more really good ones coming through that last one was Brian this one is Dino 7983 at hashtag dynasty points

so I have the 103 this year and assuming I'll be on the back end in round one next year. We don't love that, but I like that confidence. I like the confidence when we try not to do that. Base first. The base first practice will make you feel a lot better. I can explain that after if you guys want.

Let me know in the comments here. Do you guys think it's worth it to trade both of the number one picks for a proven guy like Alave or Garrett Wilson? If I can make the trade happen or is it too much, I feel like with Bowers or Adunzee landing spots, I'm not feeling either one for immediate production. This is a 1 QB league. I have Mahom, so I'm good.

Just looking for a top tier wide out. This is a great question. Alave, not that guy. I don't want to pay that price. I'd rather Radoonsay at this point with Chris Olave. We know what he can't do, and that's see his upside. Maybe we'll get Spencer Rattler. We can finally get the air-ed-out offense that Chris Alave needs.

103 and a 25-1 and a one-quarterback league for Garrett-Will. Wilson, I'm just doing. I wouldn't even think twice about it. But one could be a little harder for us to decide, but at the same time, I mean, there are just certain guys. Garrett Wilson is a top three super flex startup pick in his top three rounds. Can literally only. Eric Wilson from me.

I did. Yeah. And it was the iron price as well. It was not cheap. Yeah, it was. I at least have that to look back on. But. that was a tough one.

Yeah, you pay the iron price for him in Superflex. I feel like this is not the iron price in a 1 QB league. So definitely good targets, just different tiers for me at all. I wouldn't be looking for that Chris Oliva tier because that Alave tier can be, that Alave tier can be replaced with the tier that we just talked about, that Devante Adams and company, Amari Cooper Cup. probably replaceable on a week-to-week basis. Oh, Dean's right here.

Thanks, brother. We got you. I would say, I would say, so I'm taking Wilson on in this trade as well. But I, Wilson is one Aaron Rogers injury away from being in that Olavitia tear, right? I don't think there's actually, I don't know that there's that much value insulation with Garrett Wilson right now. It's just the more I think about this. Like, I like it. I want Garrett Wilson.

I have them on a bunch of my team. teams. But it, like, O'Donze, who is almost as good of a prospect with the first overall pick attached to him for his entire rookie contract and a base first. Like, I, I at least think about it. I'm not like an instant, oh, I'm smashing. I want Garrett Wilson there. I guess this is a good point. For me, it comes down to the 25 pick at the end of the day, because I really strongly feel like at this time of the year, you're going to have an easier time acquiring them down the road. If you move on it now.

So I don't play this for fear. I think Wilson is significantly better than Olavé, considering what he's able to do with any quarterback, not named Zach Wilson in his history. And maybe Simeon maybe, I didn't think that too hard on it. But the Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, and anyone else, but Zach Wilson for Garrett Wilson has still won you weeks.

So I think he is just a tier above. I think Olave is doomed because of where he's in. I don't think he is someone that can play out of it, if that makes sense, at least from what we've seen now. So I'm more willing to do that. Doomsy's got some, and he did say immediate production as well. So he's obviously thinking he's in it to win it. So for me, I'm looking at that.

I'm thinking I can acquire first later. I'm taking Wilson there. Or players like him, but there are only a couple of guys in that top tier that I would be betting on. I would not make this trade for Jalen Waddle, right? Like, I think there's a clear tier difference in the types of player. So I'd be weary of that. Like I wouldn't make that deal for I, you Waddle. What about like Drake London?

Is that that would probably be about my breaking point where I'm like, no, I'm not doing this. Drake London? Yeah. Yeah, I think you're right. Garrett Wilson might be the last one, honestly. Wide Receiver 9 right now in Superflex drafts. Neighbors, Aleve, Ayuk, Waddle. I might do it for neighbors.

I don't know. Probably not. But then, yeah, like London, Devontas, Smith, Pittman. No, I think Wilson's the last guy. I think Wilson's the last guy in that tier for me. Hopefully we answered your question. That's important to look at, though. You're right.

There isn't a lot of value insulation with Wilson. I'm just so in my head, even with the Hackett will be the assistant to the offensive coordinator from what we're hearing right now, I still believe that if Wilson gets any competent level, Gardner Minchu, level quarterback play, he's the wide receiver five on the year. Like, he's that, he's that good to me. What do we have here? I want to touch on this one, Rock 0780.

hashtag dynasty points what's your approach in empire startups i want to do one soon uh have one but it doesn't disband we vote on redraft i love this uh so for me i i'm in one i'm the one that so his empire is ffpc they disband if somebody wins it twice in a row i'm in an empire where we do not do this we vote if the league should do a redraft if that championship team just has that disgusting team or you have orphans it's just like a fun little option you can do i can honestly tell you i'd be too scared to play in a dynasty league that has the opportunity to implode because just because somebody won it so the way i would approach this is i would treat it like a two-year window redraft style uh and i can't be trusted

so i there are smarter people smarter than me i want to ask you guys i think there's a difference here from the full punt to a half punt scenario in this Empire League that disbands is how I'm looking at it. Normally in a dynasty draft, like I wouldn't look at a Breece Hall. I wouldn't look at a bejean really in these, but man, they look a lot sweeter when that league can disappear in two years. To me, I'm playing it aggressively. How about you guys? So I, I've never played in an Empire Dynasty. They're intense. I'll save that up front.

But I would, so, yeah, I imagine when now is generally much more incentivized, which maybe that's a good thing in terms of like the meta of the league. But I'm just thinking about like my regular dynasty leagues, I can't in what the eight or so that I'm in eight to ten, something like that, I can't think of a back-to-back champion over the past five years. I feel like it's a lot rarer than we talk about. And maybe, and maybe again,

this might be like how in the bubble is the league type of thing, where certain leagues just have certain people in them that are going to be doing that. Maybe I'm not in leagues with any total sharks that are just like racking back-to-back championships together like nothing. But it's really hard to do that. That's incredibly difficult. Like that is so much like it's so many things have to go right.

And there are so many things that can go wrong. I mean, I have seen juggernauts in August fall apart during the year. It takes like a few very poorly timed and poorly sequenced injuries to destroy almost any dynasty team. So yeah, I don't know. That would be my thought, but probably. as I said, probably don't listen to me because I have zero experience in Empire leagues. Those would just be my original initial thoughts thinking about the problem.

Well, I think that's absolutely good because I get to flex here just a little bit. The only Empire League I'm in, I just went back to back and won the pot. And I beat other co-host of this year program, Jacob Sanderson in the finals, because C.D. Lamb is the absolute. Man and I love him. But yes, I am an empire champion. We did not redraft, so I have an old as team now. That's the other side of it.

I've won my back to back after this league being around for a while. My team is old as sin. And I am now going to struggle and just hope that I have a chance to come back before somebody else repeats and my team gets suspended. Yeah, I mean, it is just so tough to really repeat, whether it's dynasty, redraft, whatever you're playing. it's really tough to win back to back just because of how much variance and luck is also involved in fantasy football just in general.

Yes, we can set ourselves up for as much, you know, for the odds to be in our favor as much as possible, but it takes one injury in the playoffs to wreck your number one overall seed. It takes one team just getting caught. Like, it's so tough. So I wouldn't really be playing with that kind of mindset. I would be playing more just like a general league. And if you can start working towards where you have as me odd stacked in your deck for that multi-year run,

then more power to you. But it's just, it's so tough, though, to have so much go right for you. If Empire Leaks where if the person who scores the most points in the league happens to be back to back, then,

you know, that changes the calculus of it all just a little bit more. But to actually, when it, Two times in a row. Yeah, I'm not too too worried. Yes, I know, Thomas. I know.

There you go, man. Maybe I'm worried about it because I just did it. I don't know. Maybe. We'll see the three-peat. Huh? Maybe? Probably not.

I got really, I got super lucky with that DAC lamb stack at the end of the year last year. They really bailed me out. Suck it, Jacob. We have said Cubs fan 69, nice. Who asked hashtag dynasty points. Last year we tried to identify the top. 24 startup picks that were most at risk of losing value in the next year.

Picks were Fields, Justin Fields, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, who are the likely candidates this year, A.J. Brown, Christian McCaffrey, maybe Justin Herbert, as he leads us some examples. I love this question. Because we screamed up and down that Justin Fields was an absolute landmend. mind this time last year being drafted at the 109 and he was it's important to know when it's time to actually get off it's just like one of those things where people tell you they wish that you were in the good times when you are still in them there there are some players right now at adp

that are really asking for it i think tyreek hill is actually one of them at wide receiver seven Oh, Derek Brown He says Brock Bowers I don't think so I don't think he would have to be so horrendously bad for him to lose I guess losing value and spot

I mean Hawkinson could come If you mean total rankings I don't think so I think he's going to be right around 3, 4 no matter what I think the people there are still the people that believe in him as the number one dynasty titan so I think that

that insane fandom is going to prop his ADP up. But Derek, that is, Lou Gezzi says hi. Luke Getzzi has been mentioned on this show previously, leading to one of the better rants that I've ever heard Jacob have, if he was here right now, or when he listens to this,

he will shudder at the name and shut her at the thought. I think Tyree Kill is one of them. People are already, like we talked about the trades for him last week here on the show. It's already, it's already scary. Or not on this show. Sorry, Ryan, you and I talked about it on the trade show on the YouTube channel right now. It's easy to pick on the running backs as well.

But if I had to pick one more before I shipped it off to you guys, guys that I think I could significantly see losing value, it's Sequin Barclay, man. RB7 still right now, I want out. I want out. See you later. I think he's on track to lose value. and I think the obvious one in the room is Christian McCaffrey.

The RB2 still is insane. It's insane. So those are mine. I want to get Ryan's. We're a couple of players for you. You're trying to identify that are going to fall out of that range. Yeah, I mean,

you already said a couple of them. I'm learning Thomas that anything I put on the show sheet will be used against me with you. So you've already named them. But A.J. Brown, I would say, is one I'm concerned about. And I think A.J. Brown's a great player. This is by no means like an anti-A.J. Brown as a talent take. But look, 27-year-old wide receiver, he's not going to gain value. That's never happening. He's kind of on the cusp of like the end of the second round of a startup right now. There is a world

where this whole Eagles offensive experiment with Kellyn Moore being handed the range. goes very poorly that this happened this happened in la last year where it went very poorly when kellen moors handed the reins uh so i i think there's more uncertainty for a j brown's like this year projection than a wide receiver seven overall in dynasty adp is letting on at his age so that that's someone i don't think has much value insulation and that That's somebody I would trade away at cost probably. Derek Brown says it really well. Any player that the best case scenario is they hold their value is in this conversation.

And that is true. That is like the widest way of saying it. But I did want to just highlight a couple players for the person who asked the question, Derek. But thank you. I really appreciate it. That was very smartly said of you. Thanks. Lucas.

So to piggyback off Deepo a little bit here, yeah, unfortunately, I do think Brock Bowers is in trouble of potentially falling out of the top five titans in Dynasty after this rookie season. I know that Jacob will probably yell at me wherever he comes back on the show about that. And I love Brock Bowers, but it is so almost impossible for what happened last year with all the rookie titans skyrocketing up for that to happen. happen again, and I don't foresee him surpassing Trey McBride with what he does this season. I don't see him passing Sam Lipporteur with what he does this season. I think Dalton Kincaid, there's a very real chance that he will jump Brock Bowers and value after the season. There's in the realm of possibilities Kyle Pitts will.

If Mark Andrews is healthy and produces an elite season, he can jump him. I don't really foresee him falling past Titan 6 just because I don't, like even if Travis Kelsey has another great season. He can't really move up much more. I don't think T.J. Hawkinson can really move up much more. And then the rest of them are so far down the list. So he might fall back to tight end six, but he won't really fall any further. To talk about some people that DeBroad hasn't mentioned, I think Pooka Naku is definitely

one that I'm watching. I'm a little nervous about just because he can't move up past wide receiver six. I don't think that there is a world where that's happening. Really? That just means that he's moving down. I'm going to put, I don't like that at all. I saw that in the chat too, and I was going to address it, Puka and Armandross St. Brown. I don't know.

I mean, what else does Puka got to do? Like, he had the best. Marvin Harrison, Jr. isn't going to have that year next year. I'm just, I'm going to go, I'm going to go on a limb here. And I'm just going to say that Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Malik neighbors will not have Pooka Nakua seasons next year. Maybe I'm on an island. I just don't know what we got to do.

Same with Alain-Ross, St. Brown. What else do we got to do? His quarterback just got locked up. He's in the exact same offense. Wide receiver boys are running ramped. Wide receiver is just getting tremendously pushed up. Marvin Harrison's already ahead of him. So we're going to put neighbors ahead of him now at this point.

Like, who's... So I'll think this too. Like, they're priced inside the top two rounds for a reason. I will say that. So this is going out on a limb here, but I do think that Pooka Nakuu has reached the ceiling of what he's going to be in terms of value. And I'm not saying that's going to be like a catastrophic slide.

I feel like, no, we need to reshape the question because there's a harsh technicality being done here. If we're talking about a wide receiver going from wide receiver six or wide receiver five to like wide receiver seven, I don't give up. fuck Keisha about any of that i don't care it's like two spots we're not talking about like a substantial loss of value at this point uh i'm want i want to focus on like potentially catastrophic losses de brode de bro just mentioned jaden reed that is a hundred percent true he could suffer a

catastrophic uh loss in terms of his value trevor lawrence comes out and is Middy Midderson again, missing wide open wide receivers at nauseam, he has a legitimate chance to plummet, plummet. Tua, he had the best year of his career and he's still

losing value. If he doesn't at least replicate that, gone. In terms of his high-end dynasty value in this top 24 range, Kyrin Williams, gone. I mean, I mentioned it's easy to pick on running backs, but ETN, Sequin, Kairn,

Um, in my opinion, Jonathan Taylor is a guy that's on this risk, uh, on, on this list that is at risk. If he comes out and is still not him somehow in this offense, see ya. Just gone. Jalen Waddle quietly agreed. Thank you. Someone else who's on the Jalen Waddle flattening out curve as I am. I think there's a bunch of these guys. I think right now fantasy looks deeper than it is.

Yeah. There you go. Is it inconceive? DJ Moore is the top 20 wide receiver? Is it inconceivable that he is the third most productive receiver on his team this year? That could happen. That would be a pretty big fall at his age. Mm-hmm.

Mm-hmm. That's tough. That's tough. No, I don't see brief. Sorry, I was just trying to read that question. Breeze Hall is not on that list for me. It's barring, like, another horrendous injury. I think he's good.

we're talking about like in that top 24 range which I which is how the question was kind of focused I think you kind of hit these guys uh I'll just I want to put out one case as for a player that I'll probably get booed at but it's Marvin Harrison Jr. already being drafted in round one is the fourth wide receiver off of the board I not catastrophic failure possibilities but there's a good chance he could fall from there, honestly, especially if we don't get the Puka type season. I think it's possible.

I think he's being drafted at his absolute ceiling. So in terms of a player that you're betting on being drafted at his ceiling, yeah, I'm going to put it out there. There's a chance he doesn't perform the expectations, so. There certainly is, but I don't know if I like the, he's being

drafted at his ceiling for Marvin freaking Harrison. Justin, I think Marvin. Sealing to next year, though, if we're talking about rolling in the next year, don't see him passing Jefferson, chased, or lamb. So why did you see the floor is kind of... I think we're overconfident.

You do you criticize me with Puka Nakua on? I will say that. I did say that. I did say that what's happening. I said that, though. I said that I'm going to go back and I said not a catastrophic loss, but a guy who's getting taken out of ceiling, sir, covered my ass on that.

Thank you very much. That's exactly what I said. That's still got yelled at. All right. I'm going to say the same thing to you that I was about to say to Lucas, when he said that about Pukinakua is I think we are overconfident in the wide receivers at the very, very top of the dynasty rankings kind of as a rule every single year. There are things that could happen to Justin Jefferson or to C.D. Lamb or to Jamar Chase

where they would not be considered a top five wide receiver after this season. J.J. McCarthy could be terrible. Retire? Nick Mullins was bawling in this offense. brother. I understand. I understand. I understand.

And Justin Jefferson at minimum turns into league winning DJ more like when he was stuck with Donald. Look, no. And that's fine. I agree with you. There's a high chance of any quarterback to walk in and succeed in this offense. But they could be not as pass heavy as they have been insanely so over the past

few years that there are factors that could drag Justin Jefferson down out of his throne. Jamar Chase, Joe Burrow could get hurt again. Do we start to lose patience a little bit? Jamar Chase does not perform as a top five wide receiver when Joe Burrow is not healthy. That we know. The Cowboys, does Mike McCarthy continue his Ezekiel Elliott fetish and do play out whatever weird fantasies he has on the football field and decide to not be among the past heaviest teams in the league like they were the second half of last.

season. I don't know. I don't think any of these are likely scenarios. I agree that all of these receivers are the top four dynasty wide receivers. I get it. I'm not saying these things are likely, but I think we have a tendency to just lock those elite guys like in stone, in concrete, in our minds and say, oh, it's so inconceivable to me that a Marvin Harrison Jr. could surpass any of them or that a Pukinakua could surpass any of them. There's a lot more just entropy and crazy stuff happening in the NFL every year than we are ever willing to admit during May. And that's just kind of my overall point. I can't see it with those three specifically.

Like I don't remember the last time we had a trio of like 24 to 25 year old wide receivers that are this head and shoulders above the rest. So if my point is, is that where we're drafting Marvin Harrison, at the back end of round one as a rookie, there's just a chance he doesn't perform to that standard is what I am saying. That's all. I think he's being drafted at his ceiling. Not a miraculous drop-off, Lucas, as I had mentioned before I started mentioning it, but enough for me for it to matter in terms of where I think he'll end up startup-wise next year.

For him, the safety comes in that the class is ass in 25 from what we know for wide receivers. so there's not a ton of competition. But I can see neighbors jumping up and ending up right beside him. So that's the type of drop-off that I'm talking about. Not it's catastrophic four rounds that we're doomsday event, panic, doomsday panic that we were talking about

with some of these other veterans that Debrough and everyone else in the chat was mentioning. But there's just guys that are drafted, in my opinion, at their ceiling like that, really do have to perform. They really have to perform to stay there. So there we go. Dibo,

Brian said Dibo at 29. I agree with that. That's another one. D.K. Metcalfe, another one. Notice it's just a lot of these guys that are, a lot of these guys are just mid guys that haven't hit their ceiling in a while that people just might get fatigue with. I would say good luck selling those guys,

though, because I've been trying, I feel like I've been trying to sell Debo Samuel in Dynasty leagues for like three years and have not had much success. Mm-hmm. Yeah, Debrough, T. Higgins, basically the nesting dolls.

Basically just the guys that are all so similar, they all Spider-Man meme, D.K. D.K. Higgins, Pittman, Devontas-Smith, Waddle,

Ayuk, Alave, all these guys, Drake, London, they could all see significant drop-offs. And a lot of that is going to just be

from player fatigue. Like, it just gets to a point where we're tired of seeing these guys. guys. Another one, Kenneth Walker. Oh, if Kenneth Walker has another like 12 or 13 point per game season, it's going to be Jover for him. And then he might actually become a buy because he's not right now,

not for me. I think that's it. Oh, Lucas. I don't want to throw this out there because basically in the span of this conversation, we've said almost every single one of the top 24 wide receivers. Yeah. I want to make sure it's not being interpreted out there that we're not saying to draft a wide receiver. between rounds two and, I don't know, five or six. We're not saying that. Yes, all of these players, they do have scenarios where it's really tough for them to move up and they're probably all going to be jockeying for position inside the same, like, tier.

But we're also not saying to completely avoid them. And when you're doing your startup drafts, it's take wide receiver on the first round at the back end, one at the top four, whichever one's there. and then quarterback, quarterback, some running back, and then start hitting wide receivers. Sure, that's a strategy. But, yeah, like, there's still wide receivers that you can like here. And there's a lot to like about all of these guys that are still within the same tier.

I think one of the questions said between wide receiver 12 and 53 or something, it feels like they're all, like, nesting to all wide receivers. 18 and 56 or something, I think. Yeah, it was something like that. but there's still definitely people that I'm wanting to bet on inside of there. I don't know, like, Romadunes, he doesn't feel like a nesting doll to me right now. I feel like he's somebody who's different enough that you want to be targeting him. The nesting doll is like guys at the towards the end of their rookie year contract.

Yeah. Right? That we've just, we've seen and we haven't seen the next level. Fair enough. I don't think that really you want to be moving off of Nico Collins right now. we'll see with DJ Moore he's one that's kind of I don't know I got asked by like

a family friend about DJ more today I still haven't texted them back because I'm like I love DJ more but I don't want to say go and start investing in DJ more either yeah I think I think like I said earlier I think fantasy football to just put a bow on it

fantasy football is fake deep this year like there's a ton of uncertainty from rounds three to six right now in terms of their startups and if you go and check fantasy calc and all the other crowd sourcing materials which you should be doing

because they're free and they're at your disposal and we need to do that and spend less time shitting on them and more time understanding how to use them within your leagues and you'll get more deals done and you'll be less mad than everyone will be happier in Dynasty

because people aren't complaining in their league chats that no one in this league knows how to trade then that person orphans their team and it becomes a cycle and it gets repeated spend less time shitting on things and more time understanding them

and you'll get more things done. Look, I think that's it. I think that's going to do it. We've done a ton of questions. We've got an hour and a half in, another long one for everyone. Bit all over the place this week, but there was a lot of things we wanted to talk about.

Tons of moves that you should be making and then being aware of when you're trying to put together what the next steps are for you. There's a ton of different angles to look at. We had some agreements. We had some disagreements. but at the end of the day, we're all here for fantasy.

Ryan, you said you're working on an article at the moment. Man, I'm working on so many articles. But yeah, probably the next big one that's going to be out is all about weighted opportunity for running backs. That will be on FantasyPoints.com. You can follow me on Twitter at Ryan J. underscore Heath to always know when I am releasing an article.

Yeah, they're all must read too. They truly are. You changing the game. and a lot of times people are really looking at some weighted opportunities. I mean, the first down per route run blown up. Just it's all gold. Like I said, if you haven't already, head to fancypoints.com. Get yourself a subscription.

This might have been the most all over the place episode we've done in a long time. Just so many players to discuss and so many different ways to approach the game. I feel like it's important to just let loose a little bit off structure and just have a truly in-depth dynasty. conversation. Obviously, we love and thank every single one of you guys for hopping in with us. If you haven't already, hit that like, hit the subscribe button, leave a comment, do all those things needed so me and my family can actually eat tonight. The more you do, look, we are pushing towards 7K and we're getting there quick. You're going to want to be a part of it. The content is being put out at fantasy points at a pace and quality that hasn't been seen yet in all

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That's what we want to see. you are in our hearts today for doing that. We love and appreciate that. Hi Mesa says patience and fantasy is as important as knowing when to cut bait. We say it all the time. Remember that fancy football is supposed to be fun at the end of the day. We talk a lot of trash on this program. We talk trash to the chat when is needed.

But we love all of you guys. We have fun doing this every week. Couldn't do it without you. D bro, I'm going to be in the DMs, buddy. We're getting that show scheduled. this next month i can't wait always love when you're around i think last time we actually booked you live we won't get the chance to do this week but next time remember to check in on your loved ones even if you're not sure that they need it remember that clear eyes and full

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