Fantasy Football Daily - Dynasty Points: Fantasy Points x Full Tilt Dynasty

Episode Date: December 20, 2023

This week is a Dynasty Report episode, taking in Discord questions and diving into the recent shifts in the dynasty landscape. The 2023 season is coming to a close and there are advantages to be had, trade deadlines or not. Thomas, Jakob, and Lucas are diving right in. Fantasy Points is teaming up with the incredible Full Tilt Dynasty Podcast and hosts Thomas Tipple, Jakob Sanderson, and Lucas Gilbert. With years of dynasty experience, Dynasty Points strives to bring you the best and most actionable dynasty roster advice you can get. Complete Tilt Fantasy Football - / @fulltiltffb Thinking About Thinking - https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/p... Music Credits - 🔻 "Makai Symphony - Endless Storm" is under a Creative Commons license (CC BY-SA 3.0). / makai-symphony Music promoted by BreakingCopyright: https://bit.ly/b-endless-storm 🔺 🔊 Artist: @Makai-symphony / @makai-symphony / makai-symphony Quiz Background Music #1 [No Copyright] Music Provided by: / @theyoutuberlibrary This song is not made by me but it has creative commons license Contact/ Business: [e-mail] --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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If you're new to the program. Don't you think that when you say listen to the podcast tomorrow, that you've just created like a perpetual loop where now like because today's Tuesday, some of listening to the podcast Wednesday hears that and they think that you're referring to listen to podcast Thursday. And then that Thursday is actually Friday. And it's just this podcast tomorrow land is now like perpetual for the next 365 days and more. As a time continuum fan, you're both listening to this podcast and about to listen to it 24 hours in the future at all times. That's right. Yeah, that's right. The views are just going to skyrocket after that. Thanks,

Thanks for that. Confused me. Definitely. Look, if you're new to us here, we're not a new show. We're not a start and sit show. We have fun here, and you should too. If you've never watched a full tilt program, we've always known one thing for sure.

And that this game can rip your heart out. I know this because I have lost multiple games this week by 0.02 points, 0.06 points, 0.9 points. One thing I do know for sure is my record against Jacob in fantasy playoffs is unreal. and that continued this week. Shout out to the League of Record. But what we do know is that we have a very particular set of skills. Skills we've obtained over a long career.

And with those skills, we will always try to give you the most transparent and actionable advice that we can. I, of course, am your host with most time of those hands. I am Thomas Tipple. That's at El Nostra Thomas. Joining me, as always is Jacob Sanderson. That's at Jacob Sanderson because he's super creative. And below right here, returning. He's approaching on Drew's bets now.

Yeah. is Lucas Gilbert. That's at L. Gilbert F.F. On the amateur porn site known as X.com. Tonight we have quite the smorgas board, gentlemen. We went into the Fantasy Points Discord Dynasty community, and we pulled some questions, and it's a dynasty report. We are going to be reporting on current dynasty happenings,

obviously some massive games. This week for some guys like James Cook, Ty Chandler, we're going to talk about those guys and what to do and kind of a middling game for some real, real hopeful quarterbacks in Dynasty like Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. So we're going to talk some quarterbacks, some running backs, some wide receivers, the whole thing. The one thing I do know is that Trey McBride is Himathy Him and my take from a couple weeks ago. I feel really strong about it. I feel like he's just younger Mark Andrews right now. it's really blissful what's happening with Tray McBride. TD in the chat, as always, a day oneer.

We love you for that. Guys, let's talk about the weekend. Just before we get into question time, most surprising performance in week one of the playoffs. Who do you have? Just off the top, the most surprising performance in these playoffs. Dallas is shitting the bad? Yeah.

I mean, I advanced. one of my best ball mani teams that I got through counted Desmond Ritter's score in a game that he got benched and his team scored one touchdown instead of Dax. Like that because Ritter's scored more fantasy points. That was that that was probably the main shock like the home road splits have been massive with Dallas all year, which it's pretty unfortunate for them that they lost that came to Arizona and we'll now probably have to play the entire playoffs on the road. Yeah, they're spicy Detroit. but yeah they i mean they remind me a lot actually of the like old uh patent colts teams where just the way that they're built in terms of how their defense is constructed especially like their lineback and core is brutal they have the two fantastic pass rushers and they have a

secondary that is like very good when playing from ahead they're ball hawking they're aggressive but they can get burnt and then the the team like their overall numbers again against the run are good. But that's largely due to that they win a lot of games by a lot of points. And so their, you know, teams aren't really very commonly able to establish the run against them like Buffalo is able to and dictate.

So, you know, and also you factor in as sort of indoor team like those Coles teams, like they just play way faster on turf. They're, it's pretty clear going to the playoffs or going to a matchups like this week against Miami. Like they're able to get out in front in the first quarter and their defense is able to

play only against the pass, then they can beat anybody in the NFL. But when they fall behind, man, that was concerning what happened in that game. And it kept up a bit of a trend. So that was the thing that was, I guess the most shocking part to me is that their offense didn't have a counter punch for it. Like, you know, even in games like the Philly game where their defense kind of got backed on, like their offense was able to keep pace. I was really surprised that their offense just had nothing this week.

And I'm very interested to see what they come back with against. Miami in another big spot on the road. Yeah, it's going to be interesting, a little bit of weather or a little bit better weather for Dallas, so we'll see how that goes on Fence. I mean, if you lined up Dac and Lamb in the fantasy playoffs, you thought you were dead, or if you had them, you thought you were gliding. This was truly crushing. Like, by weeks, absolutely, no Tyree kill. By weeks matter. We talk about that a lot.

The buy weeks matter. Lucas, most surprising performance in week one of the playoffs. I mean, I think the most surprising is probably Aidan O'Connell, but so few people were actually going to be having him in their lineups. I think Ty Chandler was probably the most pleasant surprise, especially with how late people were going to him. And then surprising on a bad note, I think at this point in time, it really shouldn't be. Garrett Wilson was, it was just so tough to watch all afternoon. that one really hurt and of course bison robinson that one just that was genuinely shocking that that really really hurt me uh i had a league where the other team had a don't call on their bench and i was

like oh i was so lucky avoid that he didn't just randomly start this guy and then i i watched bjean there with the 0.9 points that one the that'll stick with me for a little while so i am officially completely out of all of my playoffs, which really sucks. Week one was not kind to me. That's why getting the bye week. Very important. Very, very, very, very important. Absolutely.

I'm hoping Bijon bounces back because somewhat insanely, I was actually able to advance six of my eight Bejon teams that played in the quarterfinals. So we got seven going in. I now have my Tundra share back to you from the buy. So I still have seven Bejohn. a lot in the playoffs. So I'm hopeful that against my, my Colts, you can put it back together.

I mean, this would be one takeaway that I always have about playoffs, but just, you know, you mentioned the stuff at the bye weeks. We're talking about all these surprising aspects, talking about Tyreech Hill missing time. We're talking about Travis Kelsey getting outscored by like 15 tight ends, anything you want.

Like, if I want Ty Chandler, right, being, what was he this week? Was he the third or fourth highest scoring running back, something in that range? James Cook was only behind Christian McCaffrey. So, you know, every year people talk about the super teams, right? And last year, one of the examples that I used was like how many of my teams with Lamar Jackson, who obviously missed the entire fantasy playoffs, like had a higher win rate than my base expected team.

This year, it'd be Bijon Robinson. Like, I literally was exactly 50-50 in my quarterfinals. I won 13 games and I lost 13 games. And so my Bejon teams were. six and two. My non-Bijon teams were seven and 11. Obviously, knowing nothing else, knowing that one of your starters had 0.4 points, you'd expect that to make a massive impact, the way people talk about league winners and league losers. Well, it didn't make that much of an impact because most fantasy matchups are decided by 40 or 50 or 60. And so most often that Bejohn game,

having 0.4 instead of 15, means that either you just lose by a little more than you're already going to lose or you win by a little less and you're already going to win. And it's not that often that it actually swings it. Even of the Bejon teams that lost this week, one of them, he would have needed 21 for me to win that game. So that's, that's like possible. And the other one, he only would have needed five. So that one, like he legitimately lost my week with the point four.

But out of eight Bejon teams, his horrible week was determinative one time. So all this to say, this isn't to be like, you know, it's going to happen to any player. It's not like a Bejon take. It's just a take of when you're considering the all-in move or considering, oh, I got to protect this depth, or really any form of dynasty strategy that sits around the idea that like each little margin of your lineup is going to matter a lot in a one-week sample is just ill-fitted to the game because most playoff matchups are blowouts. Most of the largest impacts are from a few players. they're not always the players that you expect. Sometimes they are. Christian McCaffrey, right?

Massively. And sometimes they're Jared Gough, right? So it's, that's, anyway, that would be like an actionable takeaway. It would just be to look at the weirdness of this week. And A, like Tom said, recognize the importance of the biweek, but B, recognize, like, frankly, the unimportance of how pretty your lineup looks and how much some of those margins matter. Yep.

And I go back and stir my soup again. I really couldn't have said that much better. For me, it was Rashad White. He's not necessarily even just doing it on the, or through the air. He's doing it on the ground as well. He just has a legitimate workhorse role. And it's not going away any time this year.

You could quite possibly be a league winner, if not the league winner. It is insane the volume he's getting and the offense is clicking. So I'll say, I'll say Rashad White. And the crazy thing with Richard White is like seven weeks through the season, you're pretty disappointed in what he was giving you up to that point, especially like, we're not a redraft show, but if you were redraft and counting on him as your RB2 doing zero RB and you took like some stud in the first round was hammering right wide receivers the rest of the way until you get

to Richard White fifth or sixth seventh round, you're really disappointed. But holy cow. It makes me very happy I didn't sell him for nothing early on the season when he looked so bad. Tom, you and I just recently completed a trade. We don't do that very often. But yeah, we completed a trade rebuilding team. Solumfer 261. And I think something else, I think it was some like fourth round pick or something.

It was it was peanuts on top. But yeah, it's been unbelievable. Wild. Yeah, and I wish he looked a little bit better on the ground. He did look good this week, but I wish he looked more effective. I'd be, I'd feel so much better. They have a terrible offensive line. They need to, they need to address that.

I mean, every team, every year needs to address it. But Tampa Bay's run game is like the fact that White's getting what he's getting is pretty impressive, in my opinion. But it, it looks questionable. We have Josh. He says Leporta. That was crazy. Bandals, we're going to get the James Cook in a little bit.

I don't want to blow that load too early. You know, one thing we try not to do. Blow those loads early. But I do, before we get into the meat of everything, that was a nice little introduction. But I want to announce what we have as many, as much attention as we have right now across all platforms. The first Dynasty Points giveaway is coming up. when the season is over we will announce how

you will win this when the fantasy playoffs are over this our first show back after that CJ Stroud caseed rookie card it is a 2023

Panini Prism draft picks instant number two PSA 9 Okay, this is legit CJ Stroud Rookie Card giveaway. It's going to be awesome.

I'm not going to tell you how to win it just yet, but that's the first one, and it's coming up right after the fantasy playoffs. I can't wait. It's going to be sick. It's the first dynasty points giveaway. Bindle says a good thing.

It's not Drew doing the giveaway. Too true. All right, let's get into the meat. of it we asked you the fantasy points discord subscribers you can get access to that fantasy points dot com you're gonna want to get in that all the betting everything you need also the early bird special is going through march you're going to want to tap into that cheap as it's probably going to be for the entire premium package okay just so i know we're gonna cue the question music in podcast form.

But here we go. First question from Wabits. You may have done it already, but pivot options slash good trade targets for some of the injured players would be cool. I feel like there's a lot of trades that make sense right now. Nico Collins, Michael Pittman, Keaton Mitchell, RIP, are on a good amount of advancing teams. They're also players that rebuilding teams would be interested in flipping their vets for.

Well, not in the case of Keaton Mitchell now. many Ravens running backs have to die for this team to make it to the playoffs. How many? You're just, if you run anything below a 4-5-5-40, don't fucking go there because it's over for you. You're not allowed to run faster than anyone on that team.

If you outrun Gus Edwards, your knees gone. I don't get it. His knee, I almost threw up when I saw it. That was one of the weirdest. I don't even understand how that happens. You know, and on grass too, right? Everybody always talks about the turf effect. Like, he plants, like, no contact, he just plants in his back of his leg busts through the front of his leg.

Yeah, I don't. It was disgusting. Yeah, that was bizarre. But let's talk about some pivot to some of these guys. Now, obviously, Michael Pittman may not play things like that. Do you have any vet pivots that you are looking to acquire yourself on non-trade-trade deadline teams? Well, I should protest this question. Yeah, you don't believe in trade deadlines.

Well, I believe fervently in trade deadlines. Who would I trade as a vet? I don't know. It's... Like, are you... I mean, it's... I'll word it this way for you. Are you selling Tankdale?

Are you selling Michael Pittman? Are you selling any of these guys? If I'm contending? Yes. If you're still in. You're just holding no matter what? See my answer about the Bijon thing, right? Like it's like these injured players, it's even better than Bejohn.

Like Bejohn was in your lineup and he scored 0.4. You get to actually play a replacement level player instead of one of these injured guys. He will probably score more than 0.4. So I'm not going to say no as in like I wouldn't even entertain offers. Right. You know, if I was able to get someone who I see as more or less equal moving forward, sure. But probably not doing it. The only circumstance that I would consider it would be at quarterback.

Something like, you know, like if I have a suck with like Stroud Herbert. you know and now all of a sudden I don't really have a viable replacement you know that's a different scenario where that could be literally like a 10 to 15 point just projection difference if you're going from I mean it could be a 20 plus point projection difference if you're going from have a quarterback to no quarterback but even from like have a QB2 to starting a you know your seventh best receiver in the flex like that's a pretty substantial difference but outside of that probably can't think of anything that I would be looking to do a trade that I wouldn't do regardless.

Yeah, I think that's fine. I'm still looking to move Mark Andrews if you're still holding onto them. I think with the plethora of young tight ends, there might still be a deal out there for you to make to a teen. It's not contending. You might have to add a little something, something onto that. I know I traded Kyle Pitts for Mark Andrews and a little on top. on a to a contending team a couple weeks ago same thing that's not that makes no sense like what why from the from the other person's perspective like I did not ask that question I mean you could

you might you have a better chance of picking up is it you're you may as well start Tucker craft you're going to have just a good of a chance of picking up points this is Kyle Pitts like right I agree like I just I don't know I just that's why I don't get these patchwells like I'm not saying I wouldn't so like yeah I'm looking at this perspective from the contending team like but I trademark Andrews like in theory right I would consider it but basically

it would just be I wouldn't I would not make a trade that I wouldn't make if the player was healthy is basically my things outside of quarterback interesting I like that positional take on it I think that's actually a perfect answer

Lucas do you have something quick to add I feel like that was kind of a no I mean like that's that's an excellent answer of really for the playoffs there's so much we talked about i think two weeks ago there's so much variance in what players can score at this point anyway it doesn't make a lot of sense to do a desperation move because you feel like you have to get somebody else who's not really that much higher than replacement level into your lineup versus a replacement level player you could just plug in so wouldn't make any desperate move your time to try to add those pieces was right before the playoffs had started to like pick up your depth pieces at a cost that doesn't isn't going to be twice as much as you would originally pay before you got desperate.

So I'm not looking to make any sort of crazy moves. If you don't have a trade deadline, you know, go out there, do what you can, but don't be doing it just for right now. be doing it as part if you're a continuing approach to building your team. Right. My final answer on the topic would be sometimes the best move you can make is no move. Right. And at this point of the year, that's probably what you're looking at. Bindle says trade Kelsey for McBride.

I don't even think you can do that anymore. McBride is just, he's unreal. Your time to trade for McBride was the week I told you to trade Andrews for him straight up. That was the week to do it. Because since then, unstoppable. That'll lead in. Kaleen, I see your question is J.S.N. legit. We're going to talk a little bit

about that again a little bit later when we get into the James Cook scenario because I want to kind of rehash the JSN thing. We're going to go to our next question from the Discord of course. Speaking of Trey McBride this one

kind of is interesting to me from Sad Cubs fan any level of concern with Kyler. He hasn't been great from an in real life sense so far. He said yes, that's early. But 2022 was also a down year pre-injury. Concerned. Lucas, are you concerned with Kyler Murray? And to what point are you concerned? Of course I'm concerned with Kyler Murray. I'm not concerned to the point that I feel like I have to go out there and make some sort of move right now.

I feel like his value is going to be insulated enough going into the off season to reevaluate, get people more excited about him coming back fully healthy, and then we'll go from there. But it's hard to not watch what's been happening and not be a little concerned. But like I said, it's not to the point that I'm selling because I'm terrified. And I think that this is the highest is going to be because it's all downhill from here. I disagree. I think his value is going to be fine moving into the off season. You'll have time to reevaluate if you so choose.

I'm not concerned. I'm not concerned at all. There's not a smit. So the down year in 2022, you had 20 in a. in a six, I'll do it in the base in a four touchdown league, but I'm not concerned at all, especially you get this man a white. He's throwing to three tight ends right now. He has a wide receiver core that was worse than Lamar Jackson's 2019 receiving core. It is really, really bad. But we're talking about a guy at 20 points, 25 points, 22,

you know, 17, 24, 19, 26 before he got hurt in 2022. I'm not concerned with that at all. And we're still probably going to get him at round three prices, right? Because he hasn't done enough to boost himself back into the first round. A new wave of young quarterbacks is coming into the league. They're going to bump up. There's still going to be room for him to slide, especially if he doesn't go on an absolute bang or tear towards the end of the year.

I think he's still going to be a screaming, and you get that man one wide receiver it's insane i did see uh earlier this week keon coleman mocked to them has me a little excited especially if they're not in the mhj range but that's aside for the point i do think that yeah you definitely give them some weapons i think just as fantasy fans will be really disappointed if we don't see the cardinals draft a wide receiver in the first round will be kind of bumped but is what it is i i can't see them not drafting a wide receiver. They have to.

I mean, if not in the first round, then certainly in the second round. But, I mean, they have two first round picks. I would be, like, quite stunned if neither of those went to a wide receiver. One's got to be a tackle on a wide receiver, right? Like, that's just how I would. Well, they just draft to tackle this here in the top 10. Yeah, I'll do that again. But they might take another one.

Or they could go interior late in the first round, sure. One thing I found interesting. So football insights, that's his name in. the Discord. He's the lead for the Fantasy Points, like Dynasty, Dynasty Written Content ContentPoint.com. He is the Dynasty lead. He's saying that teams are disguising coverages against Kyler even more. Thirty-eight-discise dropback rate in 2023, which is the highest in the NFL, which is up from 21%. And he has an above 8% turnover-worthy throw rate versus disguise coverage. They're disguising their coverage because this is a one-reed offense.

right now and if he gets a disrupted off of that, he is having a hard time making those connections. Because again, even Marquise Brown, who again, not healthy, probably won't be back with the team next year, I imagine.

He has been dust. He has no one to go to except for Tray McBride, which is great. And I don't expect that to change heading in the next year, but I'm not concerned. The wheels are obviously still there. Get him any functional weapons to spread this offense out again like we had a couple of years ago.

He's 26 years old. The contract is locked. We're buying Kyler Murray. Big time buying Kyler Murray. Jacob? I have no concerns. I'm tired of Kyler concerns. But I understand why some people would have them.

He has looked absolutely dogwashed. But again, he's coming back from an injury. He's a little rusty. I mean, has he looked that bad to people? Like, I mean. Yes. For sure. I guess.

I don't know. I think it's throws his yeah it's even even some of our film team has said he's looked questionable I think people get tied to results a lot um it's true no they do absolutely estavio says be concerned and just trade me kylel for purdy straight up get out here we i told you what that would take you haven't brought it to the table yet well i'll pivot i'll pivot off kiler and josh is asking if it's time to move off my homes for a war chest i mean when people ask these questions it's like always at the wrong time like sorry josh i don't mean to be like dismissive of you but like it's just how jacob realistically like realistically like do i think

realistically like am i generally in favor of trading mahomes not really if you are ever going to trade mahomes like don't do it when he's scoring not a lot of points like do it when he's scoring doing he is scoring a lot of points like the idea of like right so it's like it's it couldn't possibly be a worse time to move mahomes for a war chess like you your war chest is going to be smaller for Mahomes than it was last off season. It's almost certainly going to be smaller than it will be in a future off season. Like it's probably not the time to move Mahomes for a war chest because like you're still got a massive offer for Patrick Mahomes, but like probably the time to buy Patrick Mahomes.

Or if you don't want to store all that value in that one asset, then you just sit it out. But like, you know, I don't think anyone has any concerns about Patrick Mahomes from like a real life perspective. So it's really just a matter of are his weapons going to be able to provide him with sufficient fantasy value moving forward? And they can pretty much only get better. So I would say that it's probably probably one of the worst times to be moving Mahomes. And generally, my take on Mahomes always would be like the time to move them would be if you have a terrible value team. So you're not storing a bunch of your value in an asset that can't really go up. and, you know, the worst time to move him would be any other scenario.

Yeah, I'm okay. I'm okay moving him personally, but I think it's just a personal vendetta I have with how the home league went. I need to, once the season is over, wash the stink of the Patrick Mahomes season for my home team away, and I'll be right back in. What I will say is the whole war chest or trade ex-quarterback for the massive haul. I think that's great in theory, but I don't think it happens as much as people want to hope that it happens. It's the same issue I have with somebody drafting eight quarterbacks in a startup because they want to trade them.

I've got this value locked in, someone will take it. Chances are if that person wanted the quarterback at the value that you're asking for, they would have drafted them at that is kind of how that goes. And teams are surprise, surprise, not often willing to. send you three or four first round picks for anybody. It's just not often that that's ever going to happen. Now, I'm not saying it does not happen. It just, I think the perfect, idealistic deal for these elite quarterbacks are not out there the way people hope they are.

Obviously, if you can get it, sure. I think that getting three or four firsts for any one single player is just good value for pretty much anyone. But again, fewer and far between these trades are actually out there for people. And especially at this time of the year. There's a considerable liquidity issue with any elite quarterback trade, which is like usually the way that elite quarterbacks are most commonly going to be traded is one of them gets hurt and they get traded for each other with some sort of thing on top to compensate for the injury.

That's just how most elite quarterback trades go. Or there's some sort of preference thing involved. But like, you know, if you want, like what is the war chest, right? Like the war chest, usually people are trying to accomplish some sort of goal. So, like one of the ways that you can, you know, maybe some of the ways, right? some of the ways that I've acquired an elite quarterback without sending one in return is I'm like, I would like to blow up my team or I would, and it's usually transitioning my team into a rebuilder or trying to maybe tow the line or whatever.

And I'm like, I'm going to give you a ton of assets to make your lineup way better. So I'm going to give you like one superstar starter and two other starters and my QB2. and then you can get that and then you give me the quarterback. And so that person's lineup is getting way better short term. And in theory, I'm adding value long term. That's sometimes possible. A, I would say like I'm way more willing to do that kind of thing than most people. Like I just, I'm not saying this to like backpack or backpack or whatever.

It's just most of the time if people have a lot of like older vets that are scoring a lot of points in their lineup, like people aren't usually very. three-dimensional and they're usually just like I'm going to keep these guys and I'm competing so I can't make my lineup worse like that's just kind of how 90% of your league mates attitudes are going to be about it um also the other person like you have to actually be interested in that kind of package and then as for picks like the reality is it's like most the time dynasty managers who are buying don't have a ton of excess first round picks hanging around yeah and if they're not going be the at yet right most of the time that most the time that dynasty managers do have a ton of excess first round picks lying around they're not trying to win so they don't want to move them

um and it's just kind of so it's like how often is that war chest coming it's just it takes a very particular set of circumstances like i mean hey we made an elite quarterback trade on a team where we were both contending and we both met in the playoffs last year we've talked about it on other full tilt shows we can mention it now a trade that did work out for both of us was I traded Lamar Jackson while he was hurt last year because I needed another quarterback. I traded Alvin Camaro when he was down bad himself in a 24 second and I got back cousins. Unfortunately, I got back Traylin Burks, which sadness. But I got a 23-1 and a 24-1 in that deal as well.

And I went on to win that league. Thank you, thank you. I'm out of the playoffs already in that league, so sad times. but there are opportunities for that to happen. But again, you have to have really willing parties to do that. And it's not, it's just not often out there. Yeah, the only elite quarterback trade I think I've ever made was whenever I was trading for Josh Allen on a team that I had a ton of draft picks going in. And I had a ton of draft picks from the year beforehand.

Sitting on it, Ryan Tannahill was still like the efficient quarterback, like a high end QB2. at the time. Cam Acres was just starting to break out, but I also had a rookie year DeAndre Swift and one or two others. I can't remember back. This was a couple of years ago, but a package together, Tanna Hill, Acres, and then Hunter Henry before he completely disappeared in a pick for Josh Allen. That's the only time I ever have done it. And that was also for a contending, or I traded him from a contending team that just lost a starting running back. Right. And was able to pull him in, let him maintain some quarterback value.

And then he hasn't left my roster since. But there are like like, like we've been saying like kind of how that outlines it. It has to line up kind of perfectly. Right. And even TD says, I have Lamar is my only Q, uh, Q, be on a team that's down bad. So they need to tear down to a non-elite quarterback. I mean, you can just tear a little further back and acquire a plus. right and be okay but yeah i think that's that's kind of where we're at josh says reasonable takes

he has this grandiose perception that an outlier down season may not impact his value i still think he's going to be a top three startup pick 100% if he has a massive season what's the difference in his perceived value i just don't think there is one because it's expected of him you know what i mean like i don't think it changes almost right well this is again one of those things where it's like Sometimes we're, it's like we're trying to, like, you know, it's like a theoretical discussion that gets divorced from the real league discussion, which is like, you know, what is, what is his value is what is his value to your lineup? So if he has a massive season next year, his value to your lineup is massive.

If he has a season like this, then his value to your lineup is probably coming short of what his value is in the trade market. So in terms of what's his difference in perceived value, I think that's irrelevant. I think what is somewhat relevant is what could you actually get for him now and how might that compare to if he has a better season. But like without actually knowing what is on offer currently, there's really no way of answering that question. Right. It's like we can guess what his like consensus market value is. but like it's not like you have to blindly answer a question to like yes or no sell my

homes and then you find out what you got like you get you know you get to talk to people and you get to ask them what they'll pay so I would say like at all times you should be willing to listen to offers on all players and certainly if you get a specific offer you know maybe take it or maybe not but I would still need like four plus first of value to really consider it under any circumstances and even then I would need to have probably not a super high value team. It sounds a lot like our discussion a couple of weeks ago whenever Ryan came on the show when we were talking about buying windows. It's not buying low.

It's these windows that you get of opportunities to buy where somebody's willing to consider them at their actual perceived value instead of, no, they are way too valuable to me to even consider making this trade. So I think that if there are teams out there that are willing to move off of Mahomes, then this is your window. You're not buying glow. It's just now they're giving you that opportunity to get an elite quarterback, take advantage of something like that. You're still paying the iron price. Yes.

The iron price isn't going anywhere when we talk about these elites. But it isn't, you're right. It's a window to tear down, tear over, acquire a little bit on top, right? and lose a marginal range of outcome within that player. Sure. Like, I know Justin Herbert's been like a hot topic. Is he overrated?

Does he suck all of a sudden? Dude was a top five quarterback before he got hurt. And he was still producing with, like, not being able to fully use his hand within anept head coach and all of his weapons dying around him. Like, buying just, I'm buying Justin Herbert at his cost.

Still, I'll still do it, especially if there's a larger window to buy. I do think we'll see more quarterback movement generally this offseason than last season because last season felt as though the macro market was very binary where there was like a suite of elite quarterbacks that all went in the first round of dynasty startups. And then there were like the ones that were like kind of the risk reward quarterbacks, which were depending on who you ask, either part of that elite group or not part of that elite

group in Fields and Kyler and Watson. And then some rookies kind of then eventually joined those, that group in the summer. And then it was like a massive drop off to all of the QB2s, which were a mix of, you know, the stall warks like the cousins and the Goths and the cars and all those guys and some of the younger upside darts in the Purdy and Howell and love, etc. whereas now I think we're almost separating into like into a much more tier-based value system where I think my guess is Alan will be the off-season 101.

Maybe that's incorrect. I think what Holmes will probably still hold down 102. I'm curious to see what the perception is with Hertz because his fantasy scoring has been so much more impressive than his real-life play. So I'm not really sure if he is in that top tier or if he leads off the next year. Well, until that one-yard plunges kicked out of the league,

he's going to be right up there. Right, which I think people need to factor in as a legitimate risk. Yep. Anyway, so in my mind, it'll be like, Mahomes and Allen. I don't really know what to do with Hearst yet. And then you get like that, Burrow, Herbert, Lamar, and Stroud, I think is going to be a group. I think then you have another group that's going to be, in some order, Lawrence and Purdy and Tua and Kyler. And I think Caleb is probably a part of that group as well.

And then I think you kind of move down to like the other, the next group of younger guys of like Jordan Love and probably some of the other rookies. And depending on if they look like they're going to have jobs, like guys like Fields or Howl or, you know, whatever. And then maybe some of the older veterans kind of stick around at the back end of that. And then you're like whoever the less of the starters are in the NFL, right? But I think it'll be more like, it's going to be like your four first quarterbacks and your three first quarterbacks and your two first quarterbacks and your one first quarterbacks. I think it'll be more of a scale. So I think if people want to move between those groups, it'll be a lot easier. Whereas this off season was more like a bunch of quarterbacks that were commanding like three to four first.

And then a bunch of quarterbacks that were like one or less. And it was very hard to move between those two tiers. Yeah. Because the gap was so large. And then everybody kind of had it pretty flat and had their favorites already within the tiers. so nobody was moving that far around. So I think we'll see more, I think we'll see a lot more trades of people saying like,

oh, I don't want to hold Lamar. I'll move him for Purdy and I'll add a first. Or, oh, I can sell Purdy because he's pretty close to top. I'll add a first and get one of those guys. I think we'll see more of those discussions, which will be interesting. I think it'll make the quarterback market far more dynamic, whereas I felt it was very static this off season.

Yeah, from start to finish in every draft, it kind of felt like the quarterback ranges. You could kind of predict how it was going. I think the question mark guys, like Deshawn Watson, Justin Fields, I think those guys are going to be genuinely interesting to pay attention to to see how they flux. Like Joe Flacko showed up and looked like

Deshaun Watson was supposed to look and he was in a pizzeria. You know, the same pizzeria as our own John Hansen was like the week before he got signed. and he's just out there slinging it, Ravens Legend. I hope we get a, I don't hope, but I also hope that we get a Ravens Browns AFC championship game in Baltimore with Smoke and Joe.

That would just be, that would just make me happy personally. And hopefully he knows what to do and throws that game for us. But I think some, where I perceive as lower tier quarterbacks are going to be propped up, I feel like guys like the Jared Gough, right? I feel like they're going to absolutely get propped up. this year, so that'll be interesting to watch. But I think the quarterback market is set to shift, especially with the young guys coming in and guys like Will Levis,

who's for sure going to gain value after what he's been doing. Yeah, DAC as well, Rowan. Oh, Dak, I meant to have, look, I'm doing a soft memory. I promised you I forgot names. I meant to include Dak with the Tua, Trevor, Kyler, and Purdy. Right. Yeah, DAC is absolutely sure that he belongs in. This isn't me giving rankings.

This is like my expectation of what I think is going to happen. Once we actually see if that's correct, then I'll start formulating takes, but I'm just pontificating. Right. And we're obviously going to have, look, I know fantasy points has lacked dynasty content in the past, not this year. There's a world where we move to two dynasty shows a week. Obviously, it won't be this set of cast for both.

But yeah, there is that. if there is a demand. So you have to let us know. You have to comment below and tell us you want more. Like Josh has said, he said, I love these discussions. I appreciate the insight. Well, that's what we're here for. We have one more question before we dive into some player stuff and then obviously our player picks.

I like this question. I know that you, Andrewa A, or Andrew A 101. Geez, I don't know why I ran that Andrua. The T, the caffeine. this late is bugging my brain here. But Andrew A-101, I like this question. I'm going to remove the team setup specific, and we're going to make this a theory question that you can still apply to this. This is basically a question. What do you do when you have a bunch of draft capital that you've been storing? So let's get into it. The question is, I have a question

regarding picks. This is currently what I had this year, 101, 103, 107, 205, and in a late two. My question is, is at what point is it... No even number of pecks. Just all the odd number of pecks. Right. The question is, I never noticed that. At what point is it too many picks? Should I be looking to trade any of them pre-draft or draft first and then trade once the players are more established? I think this is a great question. Some people say that once I've heard at Shane is the worst, obviously from Dynasty Trades in Five. I watched a video of his the other day brilliant by the way go and subscribe he says that the second you start attaching and name to that

draft pick that pick loses its value a little bit and i do i do agree with that i think for my if i'm looking at this and i'm saying well i definitely want to draft the 101 whether it's a superflex or a one qb i definitely want to draft that one oh one however if your team is so devout of talent and value. I think there is a world where moving that 101 is ideal, but it has to be

before the draft, in my opinion. Because people really tend to, I know the perception is that all people are more willing to go ham in at the draft. I feel like people clamp up a little bit more because things get a little more clear at that point.

So I think for me personally, if your team is so down bad in value, it is more than okay to start exploring move for these picks. and if you can, you can start trying to package some of these twos up for some other ones and smaller tiered players if possible. Obviously, this is league dependent. Not everyone's league is going to be able to handle this.

But when I have this much value sitting there and my team is this bad that I had to acquire this much, I'm definitely looking to move off some of those before the draft, before those picks values really start getting hit by player names. I think that ultimately this, you know, this question, like every question entirely depends on your team. Is it, is there, are there too much draft picks in a vacuum? No. I mean, you would, you would love to just have more draft picks on every single team, obviously. You know, the question is ultimately that you have to determine is like, is the percentage of my value stored in picks creating diminishing returns to the expected value of my dynasty team? and the answer to that could be yes or no depending on your team.

The overall question you should be asking yourself going into the offseason is like, what is the overall buying power of my team relative to my leaguemates? So essentially how much trade value do you have stored on your team? And you can get a feel for this by plugging your team into a market aggregator like keep create cover or anything like that to give yourself an idea. you could look at ADP and say, oh, how many first round startup picks, second round, third round, fourth round, whatever.

And then you should adjust some of your league context to that, right? What can you actually buy with this value set in your own individual league? And from there, what I would always say is if you, my rule of thumb, it's not like a scientific rule, but if you have a top three buying power team, or more precisely, if you could have a top three buying power team and compete, you should always do that.

Now, sometimes you might have a current top three buying power team, but all your buying power is stored in 2026 firsts, and you're probably taking a loss on that asset in all the trades based on what it would eventually be worth if you keep it. And so then you no longer have a top three buying power team because you've spent all your buying power selling off assets low. Don't do that. So basically, my ultimate answer to this question would be is,

look at the blind power of your team. Also, can you compete now, right? Like, let's say you've already been tanking. So you already have a bunch of rookies from this 2023 class on your team. And you have a bunch more picks coming in in 2024. Well, you might actually be better off trading some of your youth that's already had some of that value gain that maybe you're not quite as sold on, consolidate some of that into players that are going to score more points next year, and then keep the pick. because, you know, there's a cycle to this where, like Shane said, when you make a pick, car off the lot, lose some of its value.

That applies basically from like May through August. But then once you get into the actual season, on net, rookies are more likely to increase in value than to decrease in value. So once you actually make it to December, you're better off really having as many rookies on your team as possible. So you should probably try and figure out how many picks do you need to sell in order to to field a roster there's a realistic chance of contending if you have chosen that contending is in your interests you want to sell some of those now and then once you've sold off as many as

you need to then you probably want to hold all of your rookies for the rest of the summer and then you want to play out the season and then address in season how you should potentially react and make more moves from there right there does come a point we're holding on to stored value just becomes the next sometimes you do have to just decide I actually want to win and win some championships and win some money and do what I'm supposed to. I feel like holding that much value like Jacob said and how he laid it out is how you end up in perpetual rebuilds. We're like, I just don't understand why I'm always rebuilding.

Do not be afraid to sell some of that off, which I think is a wonderful point. Lucas, I know you have mentioned in the past that you have this habit of just being in these stages of rebuild. How do you approach something like this? When do you know it's time to get rid of some? It's because whenever you're in a stage of always rebuilding, you get to these scenarios where you have this many first and second round picks. And draft is so much fun.

Sure, it's short-lived. Sure, that's definitely an aspect of it. But there's so much that can go on here. You have so many ways that you can improve your team. Because you know who wants draft picks? every single team in your league. Every single manager in your league. And he never wants them.

Fair enough. But in every single league that you're in, there's going to be managers who are just infatuated with players. They know exactly where that player's supposed to go. And as you're coming up on your fantasy draft, you have so many good opportunities to move these picks for other assets to make your team better, especially if you know that these aren't players who you're already factoring in being like long-term

parts of your team if you're just constantly turning through there's just so many good opportunities because everybody wants to buy picks you can move picks for pretty much any players nobody's going to say no really to wanting a pick involved in a trade it's just it's a lot of fun seeing here with the one-one 103-107 that's a fantastic place to be place to be, especially knowing, like, at least how top heavy the top two are, Drake May has a chance, depending on his draft capital, to make it a little bit better at the third there. I'm moving that through a one, though, or sorry, Jay and Daniels, my bad.

Let's not say that too much around John, although John Arrington absolutely loves Jay and Daniels, but I think he's getting sad with how much people are crapping on Drake, me, but that's fine. It is what it is. I'm not crapping on May. I'm just, I have a prediction. My prediction is that we're going to be in like April and people are going to be like,

you have to take Jane Daniels ahead of Drake May at the 103 because he runs. And then people will be like, have you seen Drake May's rushing stats? He's like, no, I looked at him and he's white. He doesn't run. That's going to happen in April. It's like there will be, take a drink, take your own personal shot.

Every time that Drake May is lack of rushing up. side is referenced on a dynasty rookie pod this offseason because someone looked at them was like oh that's a light dude and didn't look at any his college stats that's like just just expect that and embrace that yeah I won't be on this pod

that's for sure but like just trying to game theory a little bit here to a one you move that immediately whether you're moving up like one of your first yeah whether you're moving up one of your first or you're trying to pick up another player there's

somebody who is convinced that there's one more player who should have been a first round pick and they're going to get them in the second round. You find that manager, you take advantage of that manager as soon as possible. And really, the 107, I think, your most fun pick. I think that that's a place where you have a lot of movement, especially during the draft. If you can move it beforehand, definitely do. But even during the draft, the 107, you can move back with that. that so easily maintain getting a first and especially a year like this where there's so many

wide receivers who are stacked in that next tier after MHJ and neighbors that you'll be able to move back in there, pick up extra assets and still end up getting a wide receiver in a similar tier at the back end of the first round or if we get lucky and more quarterbacks are going in the first then you can also pick up a quarterback there. There's just so much fun that you can have with these. I don't think, Andrew, if you go through this draft process and you do nothing with your

three first round picks, then I think you are not taking advantage of the opportunity that is in front of you. Do something with it because you can. You have that ability. And I just want to say that if your only path to

competing in your mind is just by hitting on these draft picks, good luck. because I hate to tell you, it's a gamble no matter what. You can be the guy that always drafts the Justin Jefferson's at 111, or you can be the guy that trades the 103 that turns out to be Jonathan Taylor for what turns out to be Jalen Rigger and Kishon Vaughn. And if you do that, you're, yeah, I did it once famously.

I've talked about it many times on this show, and now you're set back even farther. So I think you have to equally not be a problem. afraid of finally progressing through moving off of some of the store value. I think that's a great way to summarize it with everything else. We do have a dynasty trade question, which I like. We did say we will answer these, so we're going to answer this one. We're going to keep in mind that this is in a vacuum because we don't know the state of your league.

So every answer you're going to get from us is within the vacuum. Don't even know the state of the league on this one. Keep cup. Yeah, you keep cup here. He said for the listeners, got an offer for Cup, was offered Romeo Dobbs, plus the second rounder, plus a third rounder for Cup. Should I trade Cup?

No, absolutely not. Would not do that at all. And he also says, Jacob, nice album selection on the wall. Thank you for the listeners. We have, well, I don't switch them out. It fits the room aesthetic that people can't see any other furniture. But neutral milk hotel and the airplane over the sea. We got Velvet Underground,

or Nico. We have Black C by XTC. We have Elliott Smith's self-titled album. Is This It by the Strokes? We have your blues. Destroyer. We got Talking Head. Stop Making Sense. We got a nice ball. We have just such different album. Speaking in Tom, sorry. Here I've got like pop smokes vinals ready to go up on my wall and you've got these ones. It's amazing. I love it. I just can't imagine how different our Spotify rewinds were this year. It would be crazy. You know what? Yeah.

Well, Jacobson. What were your Spotify? Rewins. So number one, Taylor Swift. Number two, 21 pilots. Number three, Jonas Brothers. So really feeling good. And then I had Andy Grammer and the weekend.

Shadow Canada. Yeah. So I had a lot of fun with that. different. Tom, what do you got? Number one, pop smoke for the third year in a row was my most listened to. Number two, Cuevo. So shout out.

Number three was run the jewels. Number four was Nause. And number five was 30 seconds to Mars. So there's my, my, if you dare say, pigment coming into effect right at the end of that bottom five. Because 30 seconds to Mars. And I guarantee that entire thing was just the kill. Like, I don't think another 30 Seconds to Mars song played all year. But yeah, those are my, those are my, oh, sorry.

No, that was in my most songs played. That's why that rings a bell. Number five was T-Pain. So, shout out of T-Pain. Obviously, I use Apple Music. So my album music replay with number one, Noa Khan, number two, modest, modest, Number three talking heads, number four, radio had. Number five, Charlie Bliss.

Yeah, yeah, we're all. You two are close. I'm the black sheep of this podcast in my listening. Dave says me and Tom's pretty aligned to music. Yeah, because we're gremlins. Trap, trap, baby. Spotify won't even show that I listen to another genre other than pop. I am a pop girlie through and through.

I understand this. I know my lane, man. I stay in that. You stay in that lane? Nice. in that lane. Before we before we get on the player picks, I just want to ask a couple, we can do this fairly quickly, so we're not here forever.

Do you have any, on the show sheet, if you're looking at, I have a couple of players here, and I just want to use them for examples. Do you have any strong views on some of these guys and, and how we're handling? Like, I want to talk more specifically about guys like Ty Chandler and Rashad White. We talked about how the running back position is kind of disgusting when you,

put them into a rankings and a bunch of tiers, but they're going to score a bunch of points with a meh class of rookies coming in, at least from what it appears, and then obviously a kind of terrible free agent running back situation right now. Like Josh Jacobs looks like he's dust heading into 27. Barclay, we don't know what we're going to get from him. Like the free agent running back class doesn't look super hot and the rookie running back class doesn't look super hot. So I'd be interested to hear some takes on how you're view. Like I have you, Ty Chandler is a very strong buy. I understand that it was the Bengals defense,

but he looked legitimately good in the passing game and running the football, and every time they put Alexander Madison on the field, it should be one more tick into Kevin O'Connell getting let go. Madison shouldn't see the field again for the rest of the year. So I view him as a very strong buy, and I'm willing to do the pay high price on him. Same with Rashad White.

I mean, what's high? What are you buying for touch on? I would buy him for a second and a third, right? Like, I think that's pretty high considering it was one game. I'd be willing to do that because the upside is there. For me, Rashad White's a player that I'm also 100% in on acquiring at what his cost. Like I said, Lucas and I, we talked about it, contending team traded a 261 for Rashad White. I'm loving that.

I think his role is there next year as well. Yeah, I think they might be able to bring in a grinder or someone else. you know, that could actually help take that job, not Sean Tucker, who apparently they just low and is bad at the game. But, yeah, they could bring in a grinder, someone like that to help relieve some of these LDD carries, but he's great in the passing game.

He's shown he's good enough in the red zone. I'm buying high on him as well. And then guys like James Cook, I feel like are a fragile top 12 running back where they could lean either way. I think we're going to have to dive into the rest of the year to see what helps. I think James Cook is...

I think Cook is less fragile than white in the sense that, like, his... See, I don't. His skill set, I think, is more limited, but he's very, very great at what he does. And they also invested a second round picking him. So I don't think that he's at, like, any risk of, like, replacement anytime soon. I think that he's at risk of being confined to being more of what he was for most of this season. than what he's been the last few weeks. But like he has a legitimate past catching skill set.

He's legitimately explosive. And he's efficient on the diet of touches that they provide for him. I'm still not convinced that he's like an elite all around back who's going to see a ton of volume and be successful with it. But I wouldn't rule out entirely either. But more than anything, oh my God, this broke my chair. anyway but with Cook he has a defined

he has a defined skill set that he's great at with white I think he's more of the all around back which makes him more valuable for fantasy in the short term I still don't think he adds a lot as a runner so

like in any capacity really so to me it's more if he ended up getting a large portion of his workload taken away I don't think that would be an irrational decision by Tampa. I don't necessarily think it's going to happen either just in the sense that

like, you know, we were talking about this, writing back class is quite poor. Yeah. So I think with pretty much all of these quote unquote fragile backs, like I think betting on them as a group is probably going to work out well. I'm sure that a couple of them individually

are going to get spiked. Yeah. But I would say like on the aggregate, get that they're going to do quite well this off season. It's just obviously very impossible to decide which ones are the ones that are going to be surviving. So I think if you're playing in 20, 30, 40 leagues and you want to invest in Czechos and cooks and whites and Kairns, et cetera, and, you know, Brian Robinson's or Thai Chandler's

or whatever else, like I think that will probably be profitable for you. If you're in one or two leagues, I understand it has a lot of. and see where if you, you know, pick on the wrong one and that's the one that gets spiked, then it becomes a lot harder to survive, right? Yeah. And I would agree with everything you all are saying. I like that you threw in Kyron Williams here at the end of another player

definitely be paying attention to. He's quite a lot, though, unfortunately, just to buy right now. But if you can. Well, don't buy these guys now. Right to the off season. The last thing I'm right, like, because right now, like, you know, it's going back to my said at the beginning of the show. is kind of an evergreen conversation.

Don't buy. Don't buy for the immediate. Like the time to buy impactful help to your dynasty team is when the window is longer. Like week six, week seven, when they can help get you a buy and then help you in three playoff games. Like that's the time to make short-term buys. Now is not the time to make short-term buys. Like you are where you are.

You're in the semifinals. The odds that any one acquisition is the reason why you win or lose. your dynasty championship. So small. Think what needs to happen at this stage. Basically, you need to add someone. You need to win your dynasty championship. And you need for the difference between whoever you adds

and whoever you would have otherwise played score to be the difference in one of those two games. Right? That's like infinitesimal. It's not impossible, but it's very, very, very unlikely that you win. and that that trade was actually the reason why. I understand if you make a trade and you do win

and you would have won anyway without that trade, you're not going to be upset about it because you've won. But I'm just saying at this stage, proactively, it's very, very unlikely. So I cannot recommend enough against making a short term buy. So with Kyron Williams, if you're sold on Kyron Williams, like right now his cost is top three running back

for the next two weeks plus whatever else. like if you want to buy carm Williams just wait for these two weeks to end and then buy for the whatever else but at least then you don't have to pay the added price of what he's going to do for you the next two weeks because that two weeks is very not

it's very unlikely to actually be the reason you win your dynasty league but it's going to comprise a big portion of the cost so I don't know what he's going to cost us off season but I promise you whatever he's going to cost us off season it's going to be less than he would cost today and it's very unlikely that difference going to be worth it. Yeah, that's why this was more just a take of kind of what to expect more or less.

Again, we talked about it earlier at length and Jacob just retouched on it. Don't do it now. The time is, it's over. I would like to throw Taj Spears also into this group as another running back to definitely be paying attention to right now after playoffs. And that's someone, even like with someone like Ty Chandler who I really like Ty Chandler, he's the person I feel most insecure about. If you can find a way to move from Chandler to Tajay Spear who at least me personally I feel much much more secure about definitely

do that. I mean the time to move for Spears actually could be now because like you're not going to feel all that great you're not feeling all that great about starting him in the playoffs like he's kind of a flex play right now right he's in a split backfield not seeing any goal line

reps so as soon as the offseason hits and Derek Henry's assumed gone and everyone is penciling in Spears as the guy you got a get and the guy who's going to get all that work. Like, that's when Spears all of a sudden becomes more expensive. So like you just said, Lucas, like now is the time that, yeah, I would trade Chandler for Spears if that was possible. Or if you could trade a veteran for Spears right now, that would be the guy I would target right now because his long term outlook is getting a lot better as soon as these two weeks in. Right, but that also fits into your don't buy for the short.

term. That's still a long term play that you can buy right now. Yeah, you can buy in cheaper. You can buy Spears cheaper today and then you're going to be able to buy them for in two weeks, probably. Or, you know, maybe not in terms of picks or something, but I mean like the assets that you can use to get Spears with, like you might have a chance to move Ty Chandler and not much else for Thai Spears today. That's probably not going to be the case in February. Maybe you can move, I don't know. It doesn't even matter which running back you pick. whatever Sequin for Spears Plus looks like

in the off season, the plus is, you know, I don't know, pick any old running back to get on your roster, whatever iteration of that deal with Spears, it's going to be harder selling the off season. Yeah, because the minute, you want to beat the Derek Henry News,

for sure. So if you've got to pay a little bit to get ahead of it, do that. Those are just some players at the running back position. I want to touch on potentially some players at the wide receiver position.

I know Jacob, you and I discussed at pretty decent length. JSN. I had an issue with, there was the discussion that I had in the full tilt discord about JSN's role not being able to expand and what we do and don't think that he can do. Well, his role did expand. There's a reason I don't talk about absolutes. The targets weren't necessarily there, but obviously the deep ball made a ridiculous catch. And in the game, Shadow drew lock, by the way.

and then also so wholesome to see Gino Smith, just hyping you brought the backpack back and Gino Smith's doing it on the sideline. He was, it genuinely warmed my heart. But these are the kind of performances that I talked about beforehand. And I know someone had asked, I forget who asked the question, shall shout out to you if he's for real.

I think he's a very good player. But again, I'm looking more at 2024 and what happens with Tyler Lockett. Or if Pete Carroll's actually gone and we stop, you know, running him out as the third option of wide receiver all the time. But I obviously think he is a for real player. I think even after Jacob, you talked me down from where my hard stance was on JSN, I see him definitely being more of a middle of the field,

Deontay Johnson type player, maybe a little bit better than that, than maybe that elite upside wide receiver, which is kind of how I feel like about the Josh Downs and the Zayflowers. I think he's worked himself right into that tier. I don't think he's on a separate tier from that as of right now with what we know. But I think he is a for real good player. But I think the players that are going to be going around him in the off season, the Michael Pitman's, etc.,

I think that they are a better option at his price. But I think that these next few weeks are going to really determine how clear that is because he could absolutely continue to ball out and it will shift everything. I think he is for real. Are there other wide receivers that kind of fit into this keeping your eye out for the next couple of weeks specifically? So I'm, we're going to be doing with them.

I want to give Jacob some credit here. We were early on in the season playing a fancy stock market game. And one of the first names that Jacob put in for was Rashi Rice, that he is so much fun right now. Absolutely love watching him. Love seeing what his role has. has expanded to. And when we've been disappointed by wide receiver after wide receiver after wide receiver on

the chiefs, it's, it's really fun to like actually be excited about one. Yeah, he's never going to be Tari Kill. But he looks like a very good possession wide receiver, getting so much more work. He's producing, scoring touchdowns, getting a ton of targets. That's, that's a lot of fun. Definitely watching Rashi Rice is probably my primary one. And then I really like Jaden Reed. He's not somebody that I'm actively going out for.

They are doing a lot of designed plays for him, which is encouraging. They really want to get him involved. I would like to see him more involved, though, in some of the deeper passing game than kind of like the short stuff. Like the initial things that they were doing with Debo just to get him involved. I'd like to see him involved down the field. and there was one more name. I've already lost it. Oh, Quentin Johnston,

pay attention to what his value is at the end of season. Hold on. I'm not saying bye. I'm not saying bye. I'm not saying bye. All right. But we've already seen if you're just looking at DLF, his value's been up and down,

up and down is right now going back up. As somebody, once you get to the end of the season, find the fantasy manager who is like, oh, you know, I'm going to take him as a reclamation project. they're going to pay up a little bit because they want the upside. Watch at the end of season, that's going to be a good time to offload, especially if he can have one or two more double-digit fantasy point games. It doesn't have to be pretty.

It just has to be good enough to find an opportunity to move him for not absolute garbage. Quinn Johnson's getting to the Robbie Anderson level of hatred for me at this point. I want absolutely no part of it at all at any time. ever get out of here. Done. I'm done. It was advice out there to be able to move off of him. No, do the Skymore thing and just get off for what you can. Like, honestly.

Well, there was a time, there was a time this off season where Skymore and Traylon Burks, you sat there and their values started to go back up again because people were getting excited about, like, there's so much untapped potential here. I'm interested to see what, like, we've seen the same. every year this happens. I do think it's, I think QJ is liable to be viewed very differently than some of the other

sort of resuscitated face planters. But I'm, maybe I'll be wrong about that. I think part of the reason is like, some of the other guys that have gotten resuscitated, it had like more excuses, right? So Burke's had a lot of injuries. And he actually had some, impressive games mixed in.

It wasn't like a total stone zero. He was probably closer to like a Bateman rookie year than like a Rager. Quentin Johnston. Sky more rookie year. And then Sky, he had a few things going in his favor. You know, he had the chief's upside,

which QJ has that one with Herbert. But he also had like not horrendous per route peripherals. And he had actually a pretty solid, although on a limited sample reception and he was also a late second round pick from a small school so it was a little bit easier to say like I mean I believe it to an extent like okay he's not this guy wasn't horrible

and he's just kind of getting brought along slowly and hey if the upside ever hits like the impact's going to be pretty big in this offense and then you know and then it was clear he's going to be a featured starter start the season and so it's like oh like, well, how bad can it really be if he's going to be the starter? The floor is kind of reasonable and maybe he's good. Johnston might have some of that, right?

He'll have the Herbert effect. That helps. I'll have a new staff. That's going to help, I think, a little bit of people like, oh, maybe he's the old coaching staff. And he's probably going to be a week one starter for them because I don't see, you know, how he's not going to be a week one starter for them. Like, they just don't really have any other guys.

I presume that, like, Williams probably is not retained and we'll see what happens with Keenan. So that's going in his favor. The issue is his per row peripheral is fucking stuck. His reception sucks. And he was a first round pick on a team that had a ton of injuries at receiver. So it's not like he wasn't given opportunities this year in the way that Sky was where we were like, oh, we don't know.

What if he would have shown with more opportunities? Like, Jonathan got all the opportunities, total ass. First round pick. So I don't know. Plus, you also have, like, had Skymore had a really good year this year, that would have been a big help to Clinton Johnson's value. People could be like, look at Skymore, this is why we shouldn't give up on people, right? Whereas now people like, look at Skymore, that's why we should give up on people.

So, like, eventually there's going to be one of these face planters that actually does have a good bounce back year. And I think at that point, people start buying back in on the face planters. But for now, man, like, it's just been such a run of them doing poorly. and the faceplant theory has gotten so much more PR. I don't know if I see it. I don't know if I see outside of like a few isolated incidents, people actively wanted to give you second round picks for Quinn Johnson in the offseason.

No, it won't happen. It's so jover. I think the only thing that could do it is if he goes on this Herculane run with Easton stick towards the end of the year. You get some like garbage time, just some real. You know what?

There is no world where it happens. You've missed. Jacob, I remember earlier in the season where you're like, no, I'm not going to reaction there. I'm going to see what happens. And this is what's happened.

Now, now if you're still holding that bag, it's done. You have to get out. I don't think there's a world where he bounces back. I think you're right. I think people have sharpened up

to the base planner theory. And I mean, JJ's been saying it for years. J.J. Zachary's, I said JJ like we're like we're buddies. But JJ's Ackreason friend of the show, though, has talked about for years what happens after the first year, if it doesn't happen,

what the likelihood of that player turning out to be an elite asset is. It's been there for a while. And I really just think we have to apply it. Also, Mike Williams, they do have an out. It'll cost them $13 million, roughly, to get out of his contract. But that, everyone says the Chargers job is like the dream job right now in the NFL. It's really not.

That roster is ass. So many aging vets on horrendous contracts with like four actually really good players on it. It's going to be a nightmare job. But we just want a good offensive coach, not a defensive coach, to come in there for Herbert and save everything. But yeah, we're going to hold off on the quarterbacks for this because I feel like that could definitely be a Thursday. Because remember, this show is not going to be on. Oh, I didn't even mention that. Tuesday next week is getting moved to Thursday.

It may not even be live that may be pre-recorded with Jacob and I. Kind of a what we learned type episode for this season with the holidays. We have to move the structure around, but we will have that episode out to everyone. There will be one. It may even go out on the Tuesday if we don't do a live show for the new years. We might just be recording it. Either way, there's going to be dynasty content coming to over the holidays. It's just a matter of when.

lots of travel. Obviously, everyone understands that, but we are going to have that content. But I feel like that can wait till next week because we're at an hour 18 already, and we got to get out of here. Before we go, we will do our player picks. For an update, I'm no longer in first.

We didn't do it last week because Lucas wasn't here. But Jacob is in the lead now. 604 points. 0.56. Lucas is in the second 601.46. and I am now in last after, you know, yolo balling it with Winston and it didn't work out for me that week. 594.24.

I am in last, so I need to come back strong. If you haven't watched or listen before, we each take a running back outside of the top 15, a running back outside of the top 15, a wide receiver outside of the top 24, and a tight end outside of the top 10 in PPR weekly rankings. My week is going to start like this. I am a known hater of said player,

but I need him to have a bounce-back game after what happened in Baltimore. I'm going Trevor Lawrence, even though I am in all-time Trevor Lawrence Hayden. Joy that, Concussion Zero. Oh, I think he plays. I hope that he does play. I would very much like to have him in the home league. Oh, no, I might have to adjust that before we get out of here.

Okay, I have to the end of the week to adjust that. I will update on Twitter. I forgot about the concussion. I guess that's why he's ranked so low. He's ranked 19th. I was like, why is he ranked so low? all right that's fair i'm going to go at the running back position thanks to jake trivy talking me into it on the dfs early look which will be out wednesday same day as this year podcast

uh devon a chain or a chan uh obviously how valuable that dolphins running back running back game is i'm going to go with him and hope that he gets in touchdowns and not just for he mostered because jesus christ i'm going to go with curtis samuel at wide receiver that guy has just been an absolute dog and a baller. Jacoby Brissette. Sam Howell won't matter. Sam Howell's their... Sam Howell's the wide receiver one.

Curtis Samuels are wide receiver one. I'm going with Patty Frye against a very vulnerable defense. Need him to have a game like he did when he first. Except in, although it's Mason Rudolph. I'm not feeling too great about that. But hopefully five catches for 55 yards and maybe a touchdown if I'm lucky is in. Pat, Friamuse. Wheelhouse.

I'm going to have to quickly go and make it a quarterback adjustment. So I'm going to hand this off to Lucas, who is in second. As I mentioned, have at it. You know, first place, it was really fun for the two total weeks I've been in first place throughout this whole thing. I really enjoyed it. Yeah, but now it's over. So changing it up a little bit for me going with Garner, Mintu against Atlanta this week. It should be a pretty decent mashup.

Although now that I say it, I feel like I got that matchup wrong. Nope, I'm right. Yes, he's going against Atlanta this week. It should be a good matchup. Although Atlanta is kind of fighting for their playoff life, so are the Colts. And he's been doing some good things, been really consistent last couple of weeks. Then I am going with, gosh, I'm losing my mind here, Jalen Warren. He's going to be my running back this week.

Not great matchup against Cincinnati. They've been semi-better, but it should be good. And it's just all the uncertainty at quarterback, although I'm hoping Mason Rudolph, there's some checkdowns. I will say at the time of doing this, Jordan Addison is wide receiver 25. So really good matchup for Detroit.

Two touchdowns last week has just been scoring points. That's all he's been doing. So hopefully he can do the same for me. And then Dalton Schultz, once again, not a really good matchup. But hopefully with CJ Stroud coming back in the fold, hopefully it's going to be good

a week, yeah, apparently. But anyway, Case Keenan was still finding Dalton Schultz. Like Dalton Schultz is just, he's going to be a big time by for me in the off season. Jacob, you're in first. Who are you rolling with to pad your lead?

I'm going to go with Gino Smith. Keeping the good vibes rolling in Seattle. He had his best game of the year prior to taking on that groin injury. And he gets a vulnerable Tennessee secondary this week. at the running back position, I was very, very tempted to take Jonathan Taylor

because I'm like 90% sure that he plays this week, but I'm not 100% sure and I can't take those risks. So give me Austin Echler, who is ranked all the way down to RB28, and I mean, maybe they just barely play them, you know,

punting this season. But if I were an interim head coach and I come in, I have tried to have some renewed energy, like, I don't want try and win the game. And if I'm trying to win the game, I'm going to play by big guns and give it a, give it the old college try. So I think that Echler plays a somewhat normal diet of snaps this week. And I think that he has, of course, legitimate upside if he actually does. At the wide receiver position, I will take Chris Alave, who gets an extremely getable Rams defense. And

Nick Underhill of New Orleans dot football confirmed this afternoon that he is going to play in this game. So I think that we don't. don't have any injury concerns or at least not sitting concerns. And he gets to play inside, which is like a massive factor, I think, in all your starts this time of the year and a primetime game versus a very weak secondary. And then at the tight end position, I'm going to go with Darren Waller. The Walrus came back last week, only played but 40% of the snap. Still saw six targets and four receptions in his first week back in action.

I don't see any reason for his role not to increase at this point as they, decide to do whatever it is they're doing for the rest of this season. He gets a Philly team that's going to, it's been pretty soft against basically any type of receiving weapon this year. So I like Waller in the spot. So that's Waller. That is Alive. That is Eccler and that is Gino.

Okay. I like that. I'm pivoting to Nick Mullins. By the way, we are. Nick Mullin. Oh, that's this close on Mullins. Nick Muller. I cannot afford to take a zero.

That's going to do it. Jacob obviously thinking about thinking. about thinking? It's alive and popping. Yeah, we're doing, we're doing, you know, playoff. Uh, theme of hitchhiker, Scott, we're going through running back by running back kind of matchup wise, uh, you know, some hits and some misses this week. Uh, big hit.

We had a very aggressive ranking on tight Chandler, which was nice. Uh, I think probably just a collective miss for everyone. And this was Bijon. And then, um, you know, Swift, of course, fell over his own line at the one yard line, which was actively aggravating. Um, so that was, uh, That was a big L this week for those, but we'll get back in the lab this week. And then I'm going to write, as soon as we finish this podcast,

I'm going to write up some thoughts on playoff basketball stuff. That'll be out tomorrow or Thursday morning. Love that, man. And obviously, Lucas and I are constantly cooking here for our dynasty content. We are working out a dynasty content plan for everybody heading into the offseason. We promised you that more content was on the way, and we're going to keep that promise throughout. You're getting more dynasty content this year

than you've ever received at FantasyPoints.com. The big guns are going to be joining us throughout the offseason and throughout the process you're going to be tapped into that. And remember, when we come back for the first regular episode after the fantasy playoffs, that's CJ Stroud rookie card. That giveaway is going to begin.

You are not going to want to miss out. Hop into the Discord, get at us. If you have questions for us, tag us anywhere you find us. Put hashtag dynasty points so we know that it is an official question for the show. We will get it on there. Of course, it's the holiday season, gentlemen. I will not see you guys until after Christmas.

So obviously a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year is in order. Jacob, we have a semifinals matchup heading into this weekend, get wrecked scrub. I hope that my continued luck against you in the playoffs prevails. Lucas enjoy watching the rest of the playoffs outside looking in go and win your championships best of luck to everyone and again remember to check in on your loved ones

it is a happy and joyful season but can also be a very sad and depressing season for some other people check in on your friends check in on your loved ones even if you're not sure that they need it remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose and that your best days

are always spent tilting here on fantasy points Good night, everybody.