Fantasy Football Daily - Dynasty Points Market Report: Early Startup Red Flags

Episode Date: February 23, 2024

After audio issues last week ruined an episode, Thomas (ElNostraThomas), Tomlie (Tom_Lie92), and Andy (Andy_Buckler) come through with an extended episode. What players are a potential buy this off-season, and what can you expect to be paying? Are there clear red flag players to avoid in startups this time of year? What are the pivots? Listener league updates and so much more on this week's Market Report. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

recording again on a Thursday night for us a Friday afternoon for Tom Lee. This is the official fourth episode of Dynasty Points Market Report. Last week's episode got recorded. Audio issues, completely unsavable. So I apologize for that. We are going to get an episode about roster cloggers out, I promise. But we are here today. And today I am excited to have.

Tom Lee back with us after not being available last week. Our own Andy is here, Mr. Buckley himself. So I'm excited for this program. It's going to be a lot of fun. I want to point out that the Tuesday night Dynasty Points is back next week. Myself, Jacob and Lucas, going to be talking about how to value sophomore and third year players to this year's rookie picks. but as I mentioned

tonight is here the market report and on this day in 1893 the very first iron bowl was played and Auburn beat Alabama 3222

in Birmingham damn well I am the aforementioned Tom Lee you can find me on X at Tom underscore Lee 92. My fun fact for the day is another Australian law. We're starting to get through them. We're starting to run out of weird wacky Australian laws. Did you know that it is not legal for miners to purchase cigarettes, but it is legal for them to smoke them in Australia. So assisted suicide in Australia is completely legal.

You're ahead about time. This is exactly it. Wild. And I am Andy Buckler. You can find me on Twitter at Andy underscore Buckler and did you know that Evan Ingram has the most catches in NFL history with 114 without eclipsing 1,000 yards. Damn. Brilliant. Very Larry centers of him, if you ask me. Very Larry centers of him. I'm excited for this program, but before we get into the real important stuff, it is the

offseason. I know I always say we are not a news show, but it is kind of somewhat. important to keep track of the happenings in and around the league. So instead of doing what 672,421 other podcasts do and articles, we're not going to hit on everything. What we are going to do is bring back, do we give a shit? So let's ask ourselves, is there a piece of news from this last week that we care enough to even somewhat break down on this week's podcast? I'll start with Tom Lee.

Is there news out there? Well, it's good to know that the young players in the league are not all criminals just yet. I liked that Zayflowers hopefully wasn't guilty of anything. That was important. I mean, it's a tough part of the off-season, right? Like, we're sort of hearing more and more hype about rookies and the draft upcoming. But really, aside from that, there's not a hell of a lot for me that I care about this week. Andy?

Do we care about the most annoying part of the off-season, which is, this player has unfollowed this team or this player on Instagram. Do we care about that? Yeah, man, I can't, I can't get into that. It's the same thing I talk about every offseason where I don't care about coach speak until I see it. Yeah. Like, I'm not going to take what a coach says and adjust my ranks until I see a reason not

to because coaches, well, they lie. So there is, there's even a Twitter account that is, it's just coach speak. And he, yeah, and he just. goes through and calculates the truth truthfulness of the coach speak from a press conference and it goes through their history of lying like it's truly a phenomenal account so i i don't care about the following and unfollowing like a j brown does it all like it's just yeah i mean that that cd carter tweet is is evergreen for a reason like there's always stuff like that that happens i don't care about that i will say that There are two things that I care about. One is Gino Smith restructuring.

It looks like that he is bound to stay. Seattle can trade him. But it looks like they're rolling with Gino. I like Gino. He is top 12 upside. And we're going to talk about Gino a little later. Also, it kind of looks like that they're saving cap room to hopefully keep Tyler Lockett, which I think will be important.

And it's really going to affect JSN. But I really care the most about, We're in peak QB's moving up draft boards, with the Combine being next week. This is really going to peak. We could see four to five quarterbacks going in the first round at this point. I think we are very likely to see. We obviously know Caleb's going.

Daniels is going. And May is going to go. So now we're getting J.J. McCarthy, I speak, moving right upboard. I mean, our own Brett Whitefield thinks he's the number. one quarterback in the class. From a just football standpoint, he's not talking fantasy,

for what NFL teams truly end up looking for. And then, of course, Michael Pennix as well is looking like he's potentially a top 15 pick as well. So we could see five-quarter. I don't think that's going to happen. Like, if we did an over-under, like if I gave you guys,

the over-under's four-and-a-half quarterbacks going in the first round, what are you taking? Under. Under. And you're going under. I'll actually take you over this year because quarterback sucks right now. We do this every year though. Like we did it a couple years ago with Matt Corral and all them.

We do it. We do this every year. That was a terrible draft class. This is a not terrible draft class. And one of those QBs fall every year. Like if two years ago, if we said Matt Jones is going to be 15th, like no one would believe it. And then he went 15th. So I don't know.

We could believe it. Like I doubt it. I would be incredibly shocked if Michael Pennix is a first round pick. If it was, I would say Bo Nix is way more likely to be a first round pick than Michael Penix. I'd be very shocked that Michael Pennings is the top 50 pick, let alone a first round pick. So I don't think so, but we'll see. Okay, okay. I'll take the over and you're taking the under.

I just think it's important. But you will see this reflected in your startup drafts. Massively. So I think it's interesting to keep track of. But like Andy said, we do do this every year. I just think with this year, there's a little bit more stickiness to it. given how desperate NFL teams are for quarterbacks. This year, like it's always desperation,

but this year feels really desperate. Like there are some teams that have quote unquote starters that you could easily see moving up. I mean, just off the top of my head, the Raiders, even though Mr. Pierce was hyping up his boy, Aidan O'Connell, because he had five QB wins when he took over.

I mean, the Saints need to prep for post car. the Steelers should be jumping at the opportunity to take any rookie quarterback in this year's draft. So I just think there's a little bit more stickiness to it this year than other years like Andy had mentioned. But I'm definitely watching and I'm paying attention. If I'll say, I'll say how this affects the dynasty landscape, the later first round picks are going to be quarterbacks. Yeah. if that many go in the first round.

People are going to take that shot. Yeah, it's going to push like the, the Franklin's and the worthies kind of out of that first round, in my opinion, and it's going to put them in the back end, because we knew Kenny Pickett was bad, but Kenny Pickett was still going in the first round

of Super Flex rookie drafts per his ADP. Regardless of what we knew was going to happen, those quarterbacks always tend to get the shot taken. So, yeah. But other than that, not a whole lot of news that is really worth discussing. Well, it's probably worth discussing, but there are other shows that really hem that in and do the things. We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to get in to the good stuff.

Sit tight, five seconds. So every week, we like to take a look at the lighter side of the dynasty landscape. And I always love passing this to Tom Lee. what do we have dialed up for the people this week? So this week we're calling it battered salve and minimum chips. So you go to local fish and chip shop, battered salved, battered sausage, minimum chips, a little light snack in the afternoon, the fish and chip shop.

So heading into every off season in the fantasy landscape, there's always a few middling or ambiguous assets that are crucial to a lot of teams that already exist, but we don't really know what to do with them. Do we acquire them? If we're in a startup, are they good value or they're not? This is a lighter look. We're not going to dive into the statistics of it all,

but we've got a few at the moment we've got the ADPs for a few players that we're going to sort of walk through and see what each other's opinions are and whether or not we think they're good value or possibly trade targets this offseason yeah and it's important because there are like you said there's so many of these assets especially if you're using startup value as like an anchoring point but keeping in mind that startup value and post league value is they're completely different animals they're completely different things so let's how do you want to to start this off. Tom Lee, you lead the way, start this off, where you want to begin. You talked about a man who restructured his contract. What the hell are you doing at Geno Smith this off season? Right. And I want to kick this off because I'm buying. I'm wholeheartedly buying. Because Gino Smith not just passes the eye test.

He has fantasy upside. He's proven that last year. He quite frankly balled out. So we like that. And he's a QB25 right now. He's going off the board of QB25. Yeah.

According to dynasty datelab.com, shout out adiko for once again putting out an unreal ADP tool, saving us all from the perils of less optimal ADP. Yeah, less optimal ADP sources. Truly amazing. But we're talking about a guy who's going after Daniel Jones. He is going after Will Levis. He's going after Matthew Stafford. Stafford, at least, I kind of understand.

Yep. But two picks after Aaron Rogers. He's going a pick before Jameson Williams and after Deontay Johnson and the 204. I mean, you're talking about a starting quarterback in a super flex draft who is going in the seven, eighth round last year is all of a sudden getting dunked all the way down to the tent. This is a buy. Yeah. This is a buy, by, by.

I mean, any starting piece in the tent isn't. Right. Like when you pull up, when you pull up trades, right in a 14 team Superflex league that starts nine on the 22nd so today this this trade got done now on a 14 team league quarterbacks become even more important gino smith and aaron jones were traded for three 24 third round picks that's absolutely blasphemous yeah kiler murray was traded for for three 24 third round picks that's absolutely blasphemous yeah kiler murray was traded for gino smith and two firsts that's a trade that even i would consider

making gino smith traded for two 24 seconds it's kind of crazy to me to see that they're just oh gino smith straight up for a 24 third in a start 10 super flex league it's it's truly insane how he's getting valued right now, in my opinion. People are assuming he's done. This is the Bacon Mayfield treatment from last off season. Starting straight up, Christian Watson, straight up 24 second, 25 second. He's definitely acquirable right now,

and you should be immediately going and checking around to see if he's available. And you're right. Every year we want a target one guy. We set it on the walkabout constantly. There's always somebody in the quarterback position that goes late. It was Baker Mayfield last year. It's been Matthew Stafford. Kurt Cousins.

It's been Matthew Stafford for a couple of years. There's always somebody in that 8 to 10 range that's going to end up just being an absolute smash. And I mean, aside from that, Jake Brown and going at QB 38, you know, he's kind of worth a spot right now. Yep. He produced when he was. out there but Bryce young at QB 18 nah give me a trade down for Gino Smith at QB 25 yeah give me that trade down for that so I'm interested to hear what Andy has to say here but I'm all about this pricing on Gino Smith yeah yeah Gino Gino's a buy he's a buy in in startups and just in

regular leagues he's a perfect like hero QV guy in a startup if you take a first or second round quarterback you don't touch quarterback again he's the perfect guy that him and like Derek Carr are my two favorites so I think I think he's a definite buying you could get him straight up for a second pretty easily especially now because he doesn't really matter to people right now he's just you know Smith he's not scoring points you're not playing any games he's way more attainable than he would be like in week five so if you want to buy him now i mean 16 fantasy points per game out of a qb in the in the 10th round is kind of nutty and he look a lot of statements have been made about the OC in seattle last year and how they want to handle it

now I understand that the news defensive coach said we really want to establish the run. Well, no shit. You have to know that that kind of statement is coming. I mean, that's every team, right? We'd love to establish the run. Yeah, that's, and they can do it. They do have the weapons to do it.

But he was producing more fantasy points per game than Joe Burrow. Like, that's, that matters to me. Now, he is on the lower tier. Yeah. If you, if you go through and look at the fantasy. points per game he is kind of on the lower tier spectrum of that but he's good enough and does run a little bit like he runs just a little bit that it provides that kind of threat he throws the ball deep he chucks it he's got good weapons yeah he scrambled 20 times for 157 yards and a

touchdown they do have run a few design runs i think think there's an opportunity for him to throw the ball more than 499 times yeah he's accurate i mean he's just a solid option for your qb2 slot yeah serviceable without being crazy impactful i'd say and at kb 25 that's what you're looking for yeah truly insane that he's qb 25 right now so i want to tie it into the next player we have here and that's tua going at qb 15 yeah that's we're talking about the 309 in a start of up draft right now or waiting seven more rounds for gino to for gino two had 17 fantasy points per game last year yeah in that offense gino had 16 the fantasy points per drop back to a which fantasy

points per drop back is one of the most go-to definitive statistics i mean you can go and check ryan heath out on twitter he goes through what the most uh um oh my god what the best statistics are for the next season yeah the stickiest geez i can't believe i took the long to get that out the stickiest statistics and fancy points for dropback as we've been talking about on the show is one of the big ones to a point 48 gino smith uh point four four in fantasy points per drop back the fantasy points per game so we're talking about a guy who may not have that upper tier elite ceiling of tyree kill and wattle having four touchdowns in a game yeah well like like we do with tua but to a week to week stance Gino Smith on paper just on the surface appears to have similar upsides.

So I'm interested to hear what you guys want to do with Tua. I feel like I shouldn't be allowed to talk about him too much because I just shit on Tua too much. And it's starting to feel like I really have a strong bias. But I'd like to get some other opinions. Yeah, I mean, I have a lot of tour across leagues. And it was more a happenstance because he dropped a little bit in the draft. And he was injured in the approach to the draft in general. But he's a guy who's stuck.

I don't see him ever being a top 12 quarterback because he's a product of the assets around him and they don't want to pass the ball every game. They don't want to fall behind the sticks. So he is going to be a very consistent product, but at 309, I mean, you can't really trade back and get a lot of value in a startup from that pick. If you have him in an existing fantasy league, fantastic, you're probably not going to trade him because I don't see upside in his value outside of your team. But I'm not sure about acquiring him either because I think people are going to be resistant. They're going to be more likely to give up a Gino, a Stafford, or Rogers. And I'd rather pay a lot less than go get those guys to comparable value.

then pay a premium for a guy who's probably going to produce very similarly, even with that upside. Yeah, I would sell too. I think he's like a dead zone quarterback. He's right in the middle of the dead zone quarterbacks. You look at where he goes in the startups. Just the five next five players behind him are Jonathan Taylor. I would take that. The 105, Jalen Waddle, I would take him.

Kairn Williams. I wouldn't draft him. I wouldn't draft him. Ayuk, I would take him. McBride and A. Chan, I would take all those players straight up over to a for a couple reasons. One, like I agree with you guys. I think Tua is replaceable with his production. And I really just worry about Tua as an actual NFL quarterback as an asset. I think Mike McDaniels, I think he wants to, I think he wants another quarterback. And they don't, he's like a Jared Gough situation with McVeigh,

that they're flirting around. And whenever that happens, they're going to take the shot at it. And they've already kind of tried. We know they wanted to Sean Watson. We know they were in another quarterback. So, we know that's true. They tried to hide it, but it's been proven. So they'll probably give him his money, but I worry that Tua is going to fade out in a couple years. And that might be a terrible take, but he's just not a player I want to get. And he doesn't run. He doesn't do anything. So once his weapons age out or get traded, you know, Tiger Kill is 30 and has already talked about only having a couple years left. And Jalen Waddle, probably going to want a new team pretty soon when he's about to come up on his contract and I would assume isn't happy with his targets. So there's a chance he's asked out. He's the next AJ Brown where he gets traded in an offseason or two.

I worry about Tua because he's just super, super weapon dependent. I don't think he's a great individual talent. Yeah, I think he just fits into that, that pocket of quarterbacks that are probably destined for Kirk Cousins at best, which I know if you love Kirk Cousins and you've been all about him, Kirk Cousins hasn't been an upper tier fantasy pick in a long time. Yeah. Again, anytime we talk about these pylon quarterbacks, I think situation and scheme have to be factored in a little bit more than these players with with base floors and when you

can't do that it becomes a serious issue rather just take the skill player right and that's men like don't get me wrong there there is there is a point where I don't want to take these skilled position that makes sense but the third round I mean it's it's tough to get there you wouldn't take almost all these wide receivers over him though wattle iuk nico smitty dj more pitman a chan is a running back in there mcbrides in there i don't think i would take devontas smith uh michael pitman junior i don't know if i would dj more i would for sure waddle i would i don't i don't know if i would take taylor i would take the one o'clock five maybe I would take Ayuk I would take McBride so there there are some players that I would take

there but um it's really hard to just across the board to it a lot of people on the startup get themselves stuck in this position when they're taking skill player school player and then they're looking at a tour at this point and there is nothing really after this like you're taking shots if you look down we're taking shots at a Jared Goff for Deshawn Watson and Bryce Young you know like he's the last guy who seems other than dropping right down to the older guys of some value because of the youth. So I understand how people get themselves in the spot. That's the thing. I think he has like a fake value. He looks safe. He's comfortable with people to take because he's young on a hot offense. He seems like he has upside because I mean, he's still kind of new to us. So I think,

I think he definitely, I can see why people click him in the third round because he feels super safe, but he isn't. He's a Twitter, he's a Twitter favorite. Like that's definitely part of it. Anytime you mentioned Tua on Twitter, especially if it's Tua and Herbert, which I think is super funny. If you ever want to boost your, your click rate and your mentions on the amateur porn site known as X.com,

just mentioned Tua and Herbert together and watch the two fan bases duke it out. It like all in your comments. It's great clickbait. But I'm going to talk about Ryan Heath once again, because as I read through more and more of his work, that's at QB L Ryan on X.com.

His work is just truly phenomenal. It really is the upper tier. But he said, and I'm going to quote his tweet here, Passing efficiency has been dropping league-wide. It just hit its lowest mark since 2008. The proliferation of too high coverage is likely a contributor. He was quote tweeting Denny Carter, shout out C.D. Carter. As Denny notes, not even Mahomes is immune.

It is a great time to invest in QB's who score fantasy points on the ground. Yeah, the yards per attempt in 2020 were 6.50. The yards per completion was 4.20. That is horrendous. Which leads me to the next player. Actually, it segues quite perfectly. Talking about establishing a floor on the ground, it's Justin Fields.

So let's talk about Justin Fields, the future not quarterback of the Chicago Bears. And what this really comes down to, because we're talking about, again, a third round player. He is going three spots, four spots ahead of the aforementioned Tua, and right before Tyree Kill, and right after Dak and Brock Purdy. So let's talk about Justin Fields. I have spoken at great length about what I feel about Justin Fields as a quarterback. But one thing you cannot deny is Justin Fields as a fantasy asset. So with the likelihood of him not being in Chicago. Look, you can at me, you can get mad at me, you can do whatever you want.

As of right now, the betting odds are not in favor of Justin Fields being in Chicago. So, Field gets moved. How comfortable are we in his value sitting where it's sitting? Pretty comfortable. I mean, like, of the two guys we've talked about, of the two last guys, we've talked about tour and Fields, like if Fields goes somewhere and gets a three-year deal at QB14, I'll take a shot. Like, you know, that is a player who could be a difference maker.

If we're looking at drafts, I mean, like Anthony Richardson, we saw, what, three, four games from him, and he's an end of the first round pick. A guy who, you know, at late 2022, when healthy, was worse three firsts in active leagues in fields, I don't think we need much security long term-term-wise to be able to take the value there. Comparably, I mean, the picks before him, Purdy and Prescott, yes, they have some ceiling on their day, but they're also really low floor guys, and it can go very wrong. Like for Fields, for me, if you've already got one quarterback, you don't have a quarterback, I'm pretty happy with that value. Yeah, I think it's a good value. I don't want to click it, though.

I want to buy Fields. I think you can buy Fields in regular leagues for a lot cheaper right now before the, I think there's still a lot of people nervous with Fields for the most part. You see a lot of, I mean, a lot of people think Fields is really bad. I know he has a hive on Twitter, but outside of the Twitter sphere. I mean, there's a lot of people that aren't believing in Fields. I like, I like Fields, but I would rather just take the 104 and Olive and they're after him. So I don't want to click that button and pick him there because, like I said, I just think that's a dead zone quarterback. Once I passed, like Kyler, I don't want to pick any of those quarterbacks and I want to just, I'm just going to punt. I don't want to pick them, especially if I already have a quarterback

and then take start two or three, you know, first and third round. So I think Fields is a buy, but I wouldn't draft him in the startup where he's at in front of those players. Okay, so let me ask you then because looking at trades for Fields right now, we got Fields and Richardson straight up. Richardson. Because he at least is like he's safer, right? He's not safe. He's safer in the fact that he's locked into his rookie contract and he's starting for the Colts for the next two years no matter what. He was just a fourth pick.

Yeah. And he lost his rookie year on, you know, on injury. He's locked into the Colts for the next two years at the very minimum. Fields basically is getting to get trade this year. We know it. He's going to get a tryout season. And then it's money time. If he fails, just try out, I just bought a brick in the third round.

And I don't think so. I like Justin Fields. Like, don't come at me. I think I like Justin Fields. But I think it's a scary thing. Okay, so let's talk about two more then. Two more then. I'm interested.

So Justin Fields or Jameson Williams in a 24 second? Fields. Fields. This trade happened on the 21st, by the way. This isn't something from four months ago, which is insane. But this one, though, you have Justin Fields in a 24 second or Pooka Nakuwa. Fields in the two. Interesting.

I'm the other way. Give me Puka. Yeah. I think even give me Puka just for the reserval value. I think I can get more. And that's nothing against Puka. I think it's just he is, he's hot. I just don't understand.

I don't understand why we would want Puka in that situation. I mean, Puka is everything we wanted Garrett Wilson to be in his first year. I mean, it's pretty insane. And it is always hard to compare quarterbacks with these skill position players because the context of where they sit is important. But you can put Pook in your, you can put Puka in your superflex spot and be like, okay, I'm good.

so it's like it's you can't I'd love to see the team where you're putting Pook and a Coor in your super place right but I'm just in the situation I think yeah I think I agree

actually I want to change my answer I could trade inverted I could I could I kind of just I don't know I expected it to be

just a field so I just said it really fast and realized that I just wanted I just like those guys down there fields fans yeah let's take it

I just wanted to pick just and fields but I think you're right You could trade Puka for two first in the league. You can't get two first for Fields. At least right now. That's not to say they can't change, but yeah, I think that's the process at the moment. I think that's a really good point.

Let's talk about a running back. I was really high on. We just did. Didn't. Okay. Easy. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Easy.

Jesus Christ. Let's get Tony Pollard 300 passing attempts and see how it goes. Jeez, you heard it here first. Andy Buckler, Justin Fields. should play running back you heard it here first no but okay tony pollard r b 19 in the ninth round right now right obviously the injury played into it like quite a bit yeah but he was a little bit more effective in the second half but dallas decided we're going to be a top three passing team yeah in the league he's now a free agent a lot of uh ambiguous uh missed a

fog, if you would, around him. Where are we comfortable drafting Tony Pollard? Are you buying in? He'll get the opportunity to at least be a 1A, 1B type guy. I mean, the ninth round is a pretty good deal for running back. He is going just after Najee and just before Camara around players like pieces like the 202, David Montgomery, before Keenan Allen and Calvin Ridley. So where are we?

Are we in, out? How do we feel? And let's just for fun, ask if there is a spot. He goes that really hyped him up for you again. He's turning 27. I mean, this is getting scary. I mean, even in the ninth, it's fantastic value. It's probably what draws him back in, running back 20, running back 19.

The name's around. Yes, you know, I'd probably look at the upside. I acquired him this offseason, super excited like you were. And that whole offense, I mean, every single piece you own, aside from C. lamb you're hoping it goes your way but it can't it just seems like it can't all come together on one round but this you look at this zone you mentioned the guys coming after you go ahead of him you know 201 cup evans ferguson levis engram swift mcclorin gobwin comette amari cooper i could see him over all these guys or i could see him behind all these guys like there's a reason he's sort of stuck in

this weird ass spot is there a spot he can go to i don't know two rounds earlier you're looking at givonte williams at seven-12 tajey spiers like can i just like can i just like Hold on. Can I just stop drafting Giovante Williams this high? This is my point. Yeah. Stop it. It's over.

Carry on. But yeah, like these are the guys. Like you're not taking, well, I mean, the smart coaches aren't looking to take these guys at that spot. Devante Adams is going the same round. That's ridiculous. Like, that's where your value tier is. So back at the ninth, I mean, you could easily punt on a lot of these early running backs

that are getting force up the board because we're not sure about wide receiver. Once the QVs hit that weird spot, we're not sure about them. Pollard in the ninth? I mean, I'd probably take the pun at that. So let's talk about it being a zero RB build. For him not to be signed,

and this is where even in the league that we are about to be embarking on in the listener versus creator league for Fantasy Point. Shout out to all you guys. Don't steal all our shit in this draft. Just know that we're deliberately leading you astray. And please don't.

Yeah, please don't take our guys. But there, he was. in a spot last year where you could pivot down and feel really comfortable. So, Andy, you are the most zero RB out of the two of us as Simajai P. Ryan was your championship roster RB2. Tony Pollard, going where he's going, is there like a sufficient trade down scenario to keep punting?

Or are you okay clicking him there because there's an opportunity for him to either gain value or produce higher than his 13, what was he, 13 points per game last year? I think you could keep hunting. I think his price is solid where he's at. I still just really worry about him, man. He's about to be a second contract running back. He just got his one chance to kind of really show us that what he did in that role with Zeke was like sustainable. I understand he had the injury. I get it. And then he graded it out really well after that Panther game when he said he was back to full health. He graded it as the number one PFF running back. But if you look at his actual stats, they were really bad. I don't know how they got number one great at running back out of that. He was still like. like four yards per carry, not much better than he was in the beginning of the season. So I don't really understand how they got that grade, but it is a thing you'll see on Twitter

that he was, number one graded after the injury, whatever. It doesn't sound that the Cowboys are going to bring him back. If they do, they're bringing him back with somebody else. And if he goes somewhere else, like I'm worried he just ends up, you know, in a committee or just gets like little-ass money where he's getting like a two-for-four, and we hope he lands in like a David Montgomery-type spot. But if you look at the players that go after him, I want Kamara, just because I think Camara is just better.

He's a great pass catcher. He's going to find himself in a role that he's catching the ball somewhere if he's not back in New Orleans. I feel more confident that Camara gets a fantasy-friendly role than Pollard, even though I understand Camara has also fallen off a little bit, still like top three pass catcher. At running back, I don't think we could disagree that. Josh Downs, I would take him.

David Montgomery, I would take him. The 202, I would take that. Calvin Ridley, I would take him, and Brian Robinson, I think I'd also take him. And I think as far as to answer your question about, could you keep tearing down? I mean, I think you could all the way down here. RB 26 and RB 27 are Echler and Henry. Just rather have Henry straight up than Pollard. I'm confident that he's going to be a starter next year somewhere.

And I'm confident that he's still good and he's healthy. So I think you could keep tearing down to those players. And Jalen Warren, James Connor. To put it under perspective from weeks 11 to 17, Tony Pollard was no better than Chuba Hubbard. Yeah, he was a plot. So, yeah, he's just at a point where he seems very much replaceable. and I agree I am I'm gonna keep it moving

I'm okay not having him I think there are a couple of trades that I went and found that I feel okay doing for someone like Tony Pollard again with the I really think he is gonna get an opportunity to at least get 150 possibly 200 touches I think a 24 second a 24 third I pay that right a 24 third and a 24 fourth I would pay that these are all trades that happened I'm not just making them up

now Tony Pollard for a 24 first which was done on the 20th of this month and the Superflex I think is insane right we have Tony Pollard in a 25 second for Sequin Barclay I don't necessarily hate that no way I don't hate that at all

Tony Pollard for Spears and a second I mean I don't hate that I think that I think there are trades out there I think you have to get creative for it couple of fourths and a second etc I think that's totally fine yeah I need to be I don't know him last year

I'm not I'm not going to lie. I hate it those two trades that you mentioned that you don't hate. I hate it those two. The Spears one and the Barclay one, those are so easy the other side to me. Yeah, I just don't hate it. I mean, I know Spears is a favorite, but Spears is a guy that can't lose his efficiency on his touches at all. Spears cannot lose the efficiency. He's not going to be the bell cow guy. Like, I'm sorry. That's just not going to be him. I imagine they're either going to drive. someone bringing in a vet of some kind that can just eat LDD touches right the LDD touches are what are going to get eaten up is going to take him off the field quite a bit I'm concerned about his goal line his upside is his efficiency his receiving and things like that they could track any running back in this class has a spurs would be the R B1 in this class like I don't care sure I agree but NFL team still use an LDD runner which is long down in distance

He had, I understand, and I know what it is. Thanks for clarified. Not for you. For the people. Because there might be somebody that's asking me. I'm sorry. I'm still upset that I froze when I was cooking. This isn't, this isn't the, this isn't the Andy Buckler podcast of just like.

Also, this is a guy two weeks ago, who wanted, he wanted to describe what the kiss principle was to us. Yeah. Yeah. Let's pipe down over there. Mr. explanation. Come on, mate.

We all know what that is. That's right. The two Tom's. We're going to keep you in check and correct. Jeez, Louise. Anyway, that role,

as much as we hate that role, is still valuable because it eats up touches. Impacts. So he's, he's a guy. Spears is a guy. Now, here's a guy.

Now, getting my inner Chris Collinsworth out here. But he is a player that cannot suffer a loss in his efficiency with his touch. So even if his touches go up slightly, if he loses any efficiency, his value plummets. So a guy like Tony Pollitt, if you're telling me that I can get a pickback with that, or I have to pay like a super late two. Yeah, I'm just saying that I'm more okay with it. I think Tadj Spears is going to be a Twitter favorite.

I think he's going to be, he's going to be more valuable while you're roster baiting than he is while you're actually setting your lineup. And that's fine, right? For right now, what we're talking about, I want Tad J Spears just has more value. He's going to have more value when he goes into camp, when he goes into week one as a starter. I don't have to keep Tadj Spears until week 17. But he's going to be more, he's going to be worth more. Soon as Derek Henry is finally not on the Titans. Soon as he leaves.

He's already not on the Titans. He's a free agent already. But officially, right? Like he's on another team. He signs a contract for somebody else. He's worth so much more than that Tony Pollard than that, too. Like I sold him for a 25 first. You can get a first for Tyler's here there now.

You can get a first. I think the minute Tony Pollard signs, though, he's going to jump that two-round gap. I think he'll jump to Christian Watson, Terry McClure, and Cole Komet. I mean, what is he signed for, though? Because David Montgomery signed last year for like two for eight, and he was seen it move. And I'd rather just have David Montgomery over him. I think he's a better player. And he has a great role on a great offense that runs ball all the time.

So how do I know Pollard's going to land in that role? Pollard's like a, he's a scatback that was really bad when he got to start. He was really bad when he finally got to play. What if he's just really bad? What if he's just a scat back? What if he's Jalen Warren Jr.? Or what if he just- Let's not talk about Jalen Warren like that?

What if he just talking about Jalen Warren like that? What if he just doesn't get respected? What if he signs two for four? He might be one of those. Honestly, with how good the phrasing class is, Tony Pollard might be waiting. He might be waiting. I don't see Tony Pollard waiting at all.

Someone will. I think we're going to split the difference on Tony Pollard, but never, never disrespect fat neck Jalen Warren again. We don't disrespect the goat carried teams to the fantasy season last year. Okay, let's quickly hit on T. Higgins. I don't think much has changed with T. Higgins. I don't think much will change with T. Higgins. I think his value is going to be his value injured year. I think the Bengals are tagging him.

I don't know if he necessarily even gets traded. I think he's a Bengal, even with a long-term contract. And that means his upside is capped. It just is. He's alpha-cucked. You can roll your eyes at me all you want. His upside is capped, period. It's just like Devontas-Smith.

His upside is capped because he's alpha-cucked by A.J. Brown. I see T. Higgins is a guy. We're always going to be pawning for him to be the number one guy somewhere else. So I think his value is stuck where it is. However, I think I would take him over Rishi Rice. I would definitely have him over Tankdale. I think I would take him over Drake London. I would take him over Travis E.T.N. and

Kiron Williams. So in that regard, I think people are kind of jumping the shark a little bit. I think I would take him over Dalton Kincaid and even a Titan premium. Yeah, he's still good. I would still definitely have him over JSN, Zayflowers, and Jordan Addison. Yeah. For sure.

So I think he's being disrespected a little bit. So I'll say there's a little bit of an opportunity to move up in total value. but I don't think a lot is going to change with T Higgins. Yeah, I think people wanted T and Chase to be two top two top guys. Like, that's probably not going to happen. It's unlikely to happen. It doesn't happen to many teams. But capped it 18, 15, that's good.

Yeah, we need these guys. So if there's an opportunity to buy, I'm all for it. 5.05, that's exactly like you get stuck in league sometimes or you can't trade out of a spot. I'm okay taking him there. Yeah. your wide receiver two or three love it love it but i know and he's going to eye roll his way into talking him into like a third round startup pick so yeah t higgins is at a great price right now wide sur 19 nothing he had the worst run out of all time last year he got hurt twice three times

his quarterback gets hurt and he was just a third round startup pick last year and now he's disrespected you can get him for the 107 that's right where he's next to i think he's a you know he's a great value especially like Tom Lee said, you can get him as your writer's or two or three. I'm not going to go on a soliloquy about T. Higgins for 30 minutes. I don't even know. So I'm just going to pass. And you know how I feel about him. So I'm just going to, we could go on to someone else.

I already used up everything on Tadj Spears. I can't go back. I can't believe you're just out here disrespect to my guy. Just unbelievable disrespect to Jalen Warren. But I think that is what it is. I mean, I call him a nesting doll wider's even for a reason. And I don't see anything changing now. There are some situations I think he can go to that could really help boost his stock.

If somebody decides to pay a ton of money, I think there are a few places that could really hurt his stock. He's in a good offense with a upper tier elite top 10 quarterback. Not a lot of other places like that in the league. He's also still getting wider server one target share. He's still like he doesn't need to be the wider server one on a team to like for his. I'd rather him be the wide receiver to getting not the number one coverage still getting you know 22 23% whatever it is target share then be the wider zero one on Carolina so I yeah we've we've also seen him when Jamar Chase is out of the lineup and he is worse as the number one guy in that situation so he's probably in the role that he's best suited for from everything we know right now and I don't think that is a bad thing I just think he is in his he is in his sweet spot I think he'll be around five to seven startup pick for the next three years and i think that's pretty good value for what you're getting there when you know that he has the blow up weeks in him so then

let's talk about the last position before we get into the hard yakka this is going to probably be an hour and a half long show but that's okay because he didn't get one last week um because i made boos and mistakes and errors because we're all human sometimes so you'll follow the kiss prince you know you can at me uh you can contact joe dolan and complain it's fine uh i'll i'll i'll take my beatings. I earned it. I let everyone down. So that's on me. But let's talk about one more player that everyone for some reason is just convinced is retiring to the point where now tight end premium leagues Travis Kelsey is falling to the seventh round. Now there was a drop off in Travis Kelsey last year where you were very bummed out. I know I experienced this atrocity

firsthand in the Friday Night Lights league where he truly let me down. But then we see his playoff run of epic proportions where he looked 26 years old was damn near ready to fight a retirement home age Andy Reid on the sidelines for taking him out of the out of the game and he dominated he truly in my opinion there's a could have been argument made that he was the MVP of the chief's playoff run yeah and i don't think i would argue that too much so I think he's still obviously capable of being an elite player. I think he's a top three tight end. He may not be a lock for the number one or number two slot.

I mean, this is a guy that had the number one slot for what, one, two, three, four, five, five, six years in a row. Number two, uh, thanks to the Tyler Huntley spam of, of Mark Andrews. Yeah. In 21. It's the only reason he lost that top spot there. And again, his playoff run showed that he's still quite the different. difference maker. He's better than most wide receivers. He's better than all wide receivers drafted

in that area, except for maybe Devante Adams. You can just stick this guy in your flex spot in a tight end premium league and rake, even at 34, 35 years old. So let's talk about Travis Kelsey and if you are buying at his spot. This is a rare occasion where you can punt tight end, in my opinion. You're punting Mark Andrews and Kincaid and Kyle Pitts, and you're getting Kelsey in the Injoku, who had an amazing run himself, but Joe Flacco is not coming back to play quarterback for the Browns next year. Let's keep that in mind. And then you have George Kittle, whose floor could be zero. Cole Komet, who I don't mind actually. It's pretty solid. And then Evan Ingram and Jake Ferguson, like a bunch of maybes. Ingram is a benefactor of an inefficient offense

and Trevor Lawrence, maybe not being as good as people thought he was, which I will keep saying until he shows me otherwise. But I mean, you're getting Travis Kelsey here by the 109, Josh Jacobs. I mean, Taj Spears goes shortly thereafter.

I mean, I think he's right. I think he's right in the spot. Yeah. Like Travis Kelsey or Tajay Spears, third down, scat back. I mean,

come on. You're taking Kelsey. Like, it's seventh round Kelsey. This is a man who, whilst contextually let you down in the league that we share, uh,

was still the best fantasy points per game in PPR. tight end, buy more than four points than the 10th one. So it's still of note. It's just not four points to the next person as it was the last two years. The next one down was Hawkinson, who is injured and not going to play well. You have the three young guys who are taking five rounds before him. Like unless a bear, which I don't think we have over here at the Sydney Zoo gets him, he is going to be elite.

So we're buying round seven, Kelsey. Yeah, 100%. Yeah, 100%. I think what people forget about Kelsey is that he had that injury before. the season right before that Thursday night game where people thought maybe he would miss the whole season and then he ended up missing that one game coming back he was hurt all year like I just know he was and he's someone that said he's had a you know a lot of surgeries in his career he doesn't really talk about them during the season so he just like plays through a lot of stuff and we know we know about that

one so I think he's an easy buy and he already kind of dead at the retiring thing after the Super Bowl he said he wants to run it back come back he was never retiring so that discount I would assume is probably gone but still on the 7th round. Yeah, I agree with you guys on him. No, no argument from me. I mean, just look at some of the trades. I'm watching you, buddy. Let's look at some of the trades here.

Josh Downs and Travis Kelsey straight up. That's crazy. Made on the 21st in a 14 team half-PPR league. Jesus. Like Travis Kelsey, Josh Downs. We got Travis Kelsey Chuba Hubbard for Michael Mayer and a 25 second. Sure. Like, okay.

I like mayor, but come on. Yep. We've got Travis Kelsey, Travis Kelsey and Traylin Burks for D'Andre Swift on the 20th. This is just Brian Robinson Jr. in a 25 second and Travis Kelsey. Now we've got some late 24 firsts, which I think I might, I might draw the line there.

I wanted to ask if you would send a first for him. Give me anything, I think 109 and later. I'm okay moving straight up. 109 and later. So it's going in the startup. If you're 109.1. Yeah, if you're 109. 110. Right. And even if it's even if it's a pick that you traded for and maybe you finished third or second and you have just a surplus of a pick. I'd feel comfortable with that. He's not retiring. I don't think I don't think he's retiring. And I also here's the caveat to that and why I wouldn't send that pick right now for him is that I don't think there's anything he can do for his value to go up. I think this is just where Travis Kelsey is locked. Maybe he creeps. into the sixth round towards the start of the season.

Maybe. But I'm okay. I'm okay buying him right now. Some of these prices, you can go out and find some trades that are comparable if you want an idea of what to pay, but I'm buying. I'm just buying. I'm just one more question about it.

What about a tight end that has like a sexy name that hasn't done anything? I'm about adding like two seconds to Michael Mayer to get him. Yeah. You would do that? I'd ask for a third back just because I'm annoying. Like I'm annoying. I know I'm annoying. I know I'm annoying. Yeah. But I would because chances are that other person's not going to throw their deal away over a third. Yeah. That's how I get finesse every time because I'm not losing the shit and I'm sick of hearing you.

So I just take the shit. I just lose my third for no reason. I'm not. I'm just not listening to you 10 minutes. I just want my player. Hey, don't act like I'm sitting there sending 30 messages. You know I don't I don't play that stuff. But when you look at some of the trades, so people will be like, are you so insistent on getting that third look at how many of these trades where you're picking up values because there's multiple thirds in that deal yeah it is an easy you can just you can just stack them and and it works chris godwin and two thirds for a 25 first you just stack those thirds on the godwin and it looks a lot better so exactly people see that and yeah it turns some people off on deals

too like oh i've seen as soon as i see a third i'm rejecting it it's like okay well, you're probably bad at this, but like you don't just reject a trade for that. No offense. I've lost trades over that because it's pissed me off and I just didn't do the trade because of it. Yeah, and that's why you end up with Samage P Ryan on your on your, on your, on your, as your RB2 on teams. Now he's dead. But I think that's a great. I think it's a great point to lead to lean off of.

And you've heard us talking now for like half an hour straight. So we're going to give your ears a break. and when we come back, we're going to get into the tail end of this and we're going to try to keep this at an hour and a half because editing this will be a lot more fun. So here we go.

Quick five second break. We'll be right back. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Tom Lee, what do we have for part two in this year, podcast? It's a yacker time.

The hard yacker. This week, early players to avoid in startups. We're looking into, to expect fantasy points per game. They're actual fantasy points per game. And what the hell some of these players are doing at some of these spots? We like some of them. We don't like some of them.

There might be some controversy, but we'll keep it under half an hour because, you know, we're not going to go over players that we've talked about for previous weeks for too long. But we're going to kick it off with a guy that when I was first given the brief, I looked into it went, oh, geez, that's spicy. And we got talking and then my opinion sort of shifted. So we'll see how we go here. Brandon Ayuk is currently going at the 403 wide receiver 11 off the board.

Last year he was the wide receiver 17 in ADP just before the season started. Comparable picks last year at the wide receiver 11 would have got you Waddle, dig, Smith and Devonte Adams. So it's a spicy, spicy place from previous years. But this year it starts a run of players that are very, very questionable. So on the surface, it sounds like I want to avoid brand and I you could the wide receiver 11. But do we avoid wide receiver from wide receiver 11?

What are we doing? I feel like I can't be trusted with this question because people get really sick and tired of hearing how I view wide receivers. And I understand that. But I think Brandon Ayuk, a very good player. I know that Andy mentioned he is a, before we hit record, that he has a,

he has a chance to have the Stefan Diggs career path. which I think that there's like there's merit to that I think it happens so infrequently that the chances of that happening are slim to none it just doesn't happen often there's a reason that the Stefan Dig's situation

is unique because you really just don't see it and then of course there's the Randy Moss who went to Oakland was dogwater and was traded and revitalized his career but Brandon Ayuk's not Randy Moss

he's not going to a tom brady led offense he's not don't no he's not he's not bubblehead boy but i think where he is is probably where he deserves to be but it is very hard to take him ahead of dj more michael pitman jr dvante smith and even nico collins but it's hard to justify him being taken after so i think he is right where he belongs yeah he's a very good player not someone i want as my wide receiver won on my team but post like even chris elave i love him but he's hitting on that borderline of nesting dull territory jalen wattle is who he is i mean there's so few truly elite wide receivers that that pace themselves because the quality of wide receiver is so good in the fourth round i think i'd have a hard time clicking i yuk at

the 39th pick just personally abby i would have a I think it's fine. I think wider receiver 11 is fine, like for all you guys said. I think it's like pick your poison at any of those wide receivers. You want to take any of them at wide receiver 11, I think it's fine. You're not really going to be able to trade back. You say we should trade back during the same round. I mean, it's just not really something that's going to realistically happen.

We could tell you guys to trade back within the same round, but that actually happening is probably not going to happen. I like Brad Niuks, I think they're just really, really good. Like I have a take where I think Brian Ayukes won the seven best receivers in the entire NFL. And if he was given the chance, I really think that he can break the league. He had 1,300 yards and 106 targets. He's never, I don't know if you care about ESPN open score and stuff like that. He's number one by a lot. He's just a really, really talented player. And taking a, I know this like, you know, stupid, but taking a talented player is good.

He's talented. He's very talented. We know he's good. You're not going to lose much on that pick. That's why I don't, like, yeah, maybe you're not going to gain a lot. But what are the odds that that fourth round pick use on IU? What are the odds that it's a ninth round value next year? It's not going to be. So he doesn't really have any risks. Mine just not have a lot of upside. But I like him. And the other position players around him,

it's like, is Stray McBride's one pick after him. I know Tom would want him. I think that's fine. Then there's Devon A. Chan who has like no floor. Absolutely no floor. And then it's just the 106 and then a run of all the wide receivers that we talked about.

They're all the same. And that's it. And then it's a couple tight ends. T.J. Hawkinson, who's hurt and Dalton Kincaid who hasn't done anything. Mark, like the next two rounds are all receivers. So I think Iuke's fine.

Realistically, I guess you would like to move back, but we can't tell you move back six spots. It doesn't happen. So yeah, I agree. I agree with you guys. I like that point. I mean, there's nothing wrong with taking a good talented guy that you like.

And I think in the fourth, you're probably just thinking back to previous years and harking back to what value was there. If it's not there now, you've just got to pick a guy. And, you know, unless you're trading back in the same round and picking up a third or two,

like Tom would want to, then you're sort of stuck. And that's what sort of changed my mind. I sort of went, geez, like, to our top 12 receiver, Brandiouk, and that offense where it's so, you know, up and down, that's where we're at. So then we talk interestingly. We move on to a guy who's been rising up the board at 505,

wide receiver 18. Again, he falls into this range of these wide receivers where we're not really sure where to put him. But Rashi Rice came from not nowhere, but came from a long way back last year to become a fan favorite. amongst a lot of people. You know, comparably though, last year at wider receiving 18, we're looking at guys like Cup, Addison, London, and Watson,

which again, sounds this year like you're sort of picking, is this guy going to break out? So Rashi Rice, for me, is a guy I don't like taking, but at the same time, if you like his talent, you would take him at 18, right? Yes. I think Rishol Rice at WI.18 is actually really good. I know Tom said he would take T. Higgins over him. I'm like the T. Higgins guy. I would rather have Risholice. I've sent that trade and can't get it.

So I'd rather have Rashid Rice. That's interesting to me. It is interesting. Yeah. I just think there's way more room to grow with Rishi Rice. Like his value can just grow. And I don't think it could fall very much. Like not as much as T. Higgins is kind of what he is.

We know what he is. At least Rishie Rice is going to get that second year rider's super bump. And he has a chance to me. We don't fully know what he is. He's not a five-year player. He's a second-year player. He's had to patch him her home, was not going anywhere on a rookie deal.

Yeah. I would understand the pushback of Rishi Rice as a prospect because he mean he wasn't a great one. That's why he was a late second round pick in rookie drafts. Even with the Mahomes bump, it didn't really go that high. And he does have some ADOC concerns. But I think it's a really good pick there. What he did as a rookie, he mean, he went 79 catches, 938 and 7 with Mahomes. I think it's a miracle that he's only had YRCRA 18, honestly.

I think, like, you know, he should probably be higher or would be higher, you know, from opposed to other people. I would take him. I think that's a really good value from as I ramble to nothing. He did a lot of work against linebackers. Right. Rishi Rice did a lot of, they protected him really well.

The first eight weeks of the year, right, he was just 10.5 points per game, which is underwhelming. Like, I know there are quite a few people that were concerned with that level of production. And he did kind of turn it on in the second half

of the season, which we like. But again, people were still down on that offense as a whole. I mean, the whole year. And he didn't exactly. He did average 16.2 points per game from weeks 9 to 18, which is very good for a rookie. So the second half breakout was very legit. Yeah. But there's still an opportunity for them to add. And I truly believe they add. And what I'm concerned about, is a scenario that everyone has been hollering about, oh, game X free agent receiver, they're going to Kansas City.

Yeah. I think that if they find some money, and they do make that happen, and I mean, not talking about like a Jacoby Myers type ad here. I'm talking, I'm talking like, is Devante Adams actually available?

Yeah. Is Mike Evans actually going to hit free agency? Like, are legitimate receivers that I could see, taking away from Rishi Rice. So I think there's an opportunity for his value to still very much so get affected. Hard to complain about that ADP. I just want to say about the 10 points per game you talked about.

He didn't break a 69% snap share and literally until week 14, he played 85% of the snaps. He was playing 30, 18, 51, 40, 40, 40. He didn't even break 70 until only week 14. and then when he got the 85% snap share, 7 for 72, 9 for 91, 6 for 57, 5 for 127, then it's playoffs, 8 for 130, 4 for 47, 8 for 46. Like I said, there's a lot of work in screens, a lot of design targets. I get it, but they're still going to be there. Like, they're still going to be there.

He's going to have his role. They can add someone. They don't have any money, man. They're going to have to add through the draft. I know the salary cap isn't real. It's not real until it is. The odds of them getting that Devante Adams contract, I don't know. this rish rice feels a lot like post-r rookie year amon rass st brown to me and what he did

anywhere near that with with with what he did at the end of the year like look at that end of the year that was the amon rass st brown thing that we tried to poke a million holes in i'm gonna work for way longer it's very similar well look at it he he did it like i said the dude didn't play over 85% of the snap so week 14 and from week 11 on he was he was smoking shit and he he's the only person smoking shit right now is you amin ra had jemar chase level production rachin rice did fucking not so i just want to let's just like nip that this is that's crazy i don't know no he had no it was an it was a mini a monroe stretch and we tried to poke a million holes in it means so mini yeah okay yeah exactly this is i like what he's just yeah this is a rookie

wide receiver and we always want to just like call people what they are the rookies like This is Jordan Addison debate all over again. He's a rookie, and he was really damn good in the second half of the year. So why can't he get better? He has the best quarterback in the league. He has a prominent role. They have no money. At the worst, he's a stock guy.

He's a juju in that offense. He catches seven passes. Okay, that's your ADP right there. What is the chances that Rishie Rice next year goes 90 for 1,200 and 10? I'm never getting on a wide receiver 18 again. At the worst, he's probably back at wide receiver 20, why receiver 24. He is such a good pick because he has such a ceiling of like you talk about, oh, we don't know, nesting doll, maybe more. Like he could gain so much value.

I played with Patrick Mahomes. I like that thought. All I was saying is that there is a possibility that his total value gets affected. I am speaking from all possibilities, okay, when I make statements like this could happen. Yeah. You have to be okay, taking him there. You have to be okay understanding that that is a possibility. You just, you just have to do it.

Like not doing that would be completely irresponsible. I understand. Now, I get it. I don't mean to keep you off. I will say, though, I think we're right. We're not even talking about the Addison conversation because the Addison conversation is that he is cucked by an actual elite wide receiver, which is true. Rice is not. And you are right that the likelihood.

of that happening is slimmer like i would definitely take him over j s n which he is going over j jsn yeah i want him over zay flowers i want him over addison he's the sophomore wide receiver i want from this class so i definitely do agree there and you're right he he pops off and he could pass i i do want him over tank dell i think i would man i think i would want him over drake london okay i can say that absolutely i think you're i think you're right i like like him at this spot. Picking them up post, uh, like in an established league is even a lot easier than I would think it is as I click on him. And I look at some of these trades. You're getting Rishi Rice on a 24 first for Dishon Watson and Elijah Moore. We smash that for

she writes for Isaiah Pacheco like hilariously we smash that respectfully if that's your trade. I'm sorry, but hilariously I smash that where she rice in a second for Javante Williams. Stop with Javante Williams. That trade was made on the 21st of this month. Yeah. Stop it. Guys, that's like, what are we expecting to happen here? They had a tiny running back look more explosive and trust more on that.

Oh, he's going to get the Camara passing roll. Don't think so. Yeah. Don't think so. I don't know what we're hoping for here. I think maybe we need to have a Giovante Williams like seance so we can cleanse some souls and release some chakra of the javanti williams hold that he has on people i i don't know what we're expecting of third or fourth year breakout from a guy who's his explosiveness looks

almost gone i bought in you can search my twitter i bought in in the first like three weeks i was like man i think he's turning the corner and lucas fleeced me in a trade or two for him and now i've I've cleansed my body and mind on this. It's time. Stop it. We also have Rashid Rice for Jacobi Myers in two thirds. And we just take rice there. So it's like very good, very good.

Okay, let's keep it moving. So we'll switch tact a little bit. We're going to go to running back. And you're going to see a lot of guys for us sitting in this sort of like fourth to sixth round range. Because there's a lot of ambiguity and a lot of everyone loves to trade out. They love to trade other early ones to acquire multiple assets in this range. But Rashad White at the moment is going running back 11, the 604. He was the 10th in points per game this year, but they're running back four overall,

which I feel has pushed up his status of fraction. But I also think he had a huge impact for people on field. If you had Rashad White last year, you were really enjoying that run, and you were making a lot of people very unhappy in the process. Expected fantasy points per game, he was right on track of where he should have been. So there's no shocks there. But what are we thinking heading forward with Rashad White? Is running back 11 too much to pay or is it just right for you guys?

I think it's fine. It's similar to Ayuk. There's not a lot of good running back. So he's a running back one, but it's like a fake running back one. I think it's fine where he's going. He's going right in front of James Cook, is Bryce Young, the 108, and then some other like aging receivers, digs, Debo. I think it's fine.

Rashad White is a little scary because I'm still not sure he's good. I'm not sure he's a good rusher. And I think I said that, you know, the last podcast. So it is scary the fact that I'm not sure how much like job security has. He's also an older player. He's 25 as a second year running back, which is scary. He does have good draft capital. It seems like they really do.

Like I know it's like a narrative-based thing. It seems like that team really, really loves him. You know, they didn't want to. They said that that was their guy. And then they were right. That was their guy. They didn't lie about it. There was no committee.

There was nothing. So he's safe, I think very safe into a role for next year. He's kind of like a, like a, if CMC was really bad, it would be Rashad White. He was a really good pass catcher, but a really bad rusher. So I think it's, I think it's fine. He would still, like, scare me to pick him just because I don't know what his future looks like. But again, I just, I keep saying it just goes back to how bad the players are. If you look behind them, I mean, all them players aren't that great either.

So I think it's fine. I think it's fine with Shaw White. Just where he's going, right? I mean, James Cook right behind him, talking about a guy who's upside is also limited. 108 I think interests me a little bit more but I mean Stefan Diggs Jaden Reed Debo Samuel Isaiah Pacheco George Pickens yeah going going after him in this round I do like white there if I can't move back I just want to point out that the fantasy footballers put out some very good information on Rashad White I believe they said

that his his point seven fantasy points per opportunity was the lowest it's been in five years and running backs who finished inside the top ten with that saw an average drop off in points per game of 3.4 points. Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned it because that popped to me as well. I'm sorry if I butchered that Andy and the guys at the fantasy footballers. I'm sorry, but I did see that today and I was like, interesting, but I will say the likelihood of them signing one of the free agent backs when they have their own guys, they need to keep in-house this draft class is do-do.

Yeah. Baker more than likely coming back. and he's a pass catcher. So yes, he was terribly inefficient last year. That offensive line wasn't super great. Let's keep that in the back of our minds as well. He isn't on a second contract. This is his third year.

We've already seen an upper tier season from him. So there's an opportunity for his yards per carry to go up. But I don't think he needs 250 carries. I think if he keeps his receiving work, his top 12 potential is right there. So what I will say is I can see Rashad White paying dividends at his current cost. Like if you can't trade back from here.

Yeah, you know, I don't see, like Kenneth Walker and Rashad White to me eerily similar. Travis Eton, eerily similar. I mean, Josh Jacobs. I talked a couple weeks ago how much I would like to buy Josh Jacobs, but I don't see much of a difference with Rashad White except Rashad White's on a team with a contract. So I think that top 12 Rashad White could pay off.

And I don't think the price around him right now scares me off of him. I am fully prepared for the drop off in points per game. However, I will say, I don't think it's going to be as drastic as some people are fearing. But it wasn't that long ago, I traded a 26 first for him on a contending team. And I think I'm still going to be pretty okay with that here in 2024. Yeah, I think you're right. I think it's for where it is, and it's seeming like in this sort of round range for all of us, we're going to be stuck in making some interesting and tough decisions.

Hopefully the guys who are listening who are in our new startup, you know, hosts versus talent, are also fearing what's about to happen in this job because it's not sounding fantastic. I want to cover off another guy, another wide receiver in this range, mostly because of the boom year he had. So Nico Collins, wide receiver 13, going at the 401. the previous two years, he was 50-somethingth and 70-somethingth in points per game. Not really relevant. Rookie, getting into his thing.

But this year, 7th in points per game, wide receiver 12 overall in the finish. The new hotness in C.J. Stroud, 3.5 expected fantasy points per game above expectation. What are we doing with Nico Collins? Because for me, it's a guy that I've had on a few rosters and you go, oh shit, now I've got something. But not a guy that I'm super keen to go, yeah, this is the guy. is what we have going forward. What are you guys thinking, Andy?

I like Nico Collins. I think his price is very fair. I do recognize that he does have a floor. He wasn't as good when Tank Dell was healthy. And C.J. Stroud really likes Tankett. Dell asked them to draft him. That's his guy. He brought up like his, it's a stupid narrative,

but he was on a podcast talking about his dream offense, and he put Tanktel on there and not Nico Collins that had people like, oh, man, that might be something. And I do think Tank Dell is very good. But I like Nico Collins. He was a really good player for he just had no quarterbacks. He was also a really underrated prospect at Michigan. He had no quarterback.

He had, um, Shay Patterson at quarterback. They don't know how to use their player. So he fell in the draft. This is like just athletic freak. And he's only seven years, seven months older than Tankdale. So I think it's perfect at Wider Zero 12. And he has like what we think is probably a top five real life quarterback at this point. So I think clicking him there is fun.

Interesting. Tom. Yeah. So even, yeah. So even when Tankdale was. popping off so was Nico Collins and I fully understand that regression is coming regression for CJ Stroud is likely how much regression I don't know the man through that many touchdowns with that few turnovers it's nearly unheard of so when you

have that kind of touchdown percentage again regression does factor in but that does not mean it's going to hit Nico Collins like a truck this guy had a few games that absolutely hurt you against Jacksonville Atlanta Carolina the Jets very like some good defenses and no one had to throw against Carolina so let's just be real they just could run the ball to infinity and beyond but he has legitimate alpha traits we saw it in the playoffs even even against the Ravens I mean first play I mean he absolutely shattered them so 24 years old on a team that doesn't have a ton of ability to add

at high draft capital obviously now the only thing that gives me pause here is the news that stephan digs has shot up in probability to be a houston texan uh in Vegas right i think andy you had that uh what's the what was the line that moved it was plus 7500 and now it's plus 1,000 yeah so it's moving quite a bit it's it's not in the negative so it's not like but where there's smoke there's fire. So I think we could potentially be seeing somebody like digs come into town. If that happens, I think you're burning a pick here. But until we get something or anything really concrete, we're talking about a guy who plays on the outside, wins deep. I don't think this is a one-off. Slowick is back. I feel like you're getting what we want out of Brandon Ayyuk.

with Nico Collins. You're not really, in my opinion, getting a real big drop off. We got a good offense, a seemingly elite quarterback. He's 24 years old. I mean, the third year breakout, Zilots are just loving

this Nico Collins season to keep their narrative alive. He was just very good. His fantasy points per route run was very good this year. I just like him a little bit more than Tankdale. Maybe it's because I'm prejudice against Tankdale's size, but Tankdale also ate off the touchdowns,

which aren't sticky as well. But a 0.68 fantasy points per route run is very good. He did overachieve his fantasy points per game, I think by about three and a half. Yeah. So again, you're looking for that to come down. But let's say his 17.4 points per game come down to 15.5. Yeah. I'm taking that.

Right. Because we know he's going to have the spike weeks. So I like that spot for him personally. What I'm interested in is if you can pull up some trades, because in startups, it makes a lot of sense because of what's happened to the wide receiver landscape. And unless you're running a certain strategy, unless, again, if you're in our new startup league, don't listen to this bit. Unless you're running a certain strategy, you know, he's a solid pick. I think he's going to add good value to your roster. But I have a feeling that in the existing leagues, people who have him on their roster who are in a pinch are going to look to get some value out of him and not necessarily charge you wide receiver 12 startup prices.

But the 407 is a lot for a guy who, for most people to come from nowhere, he would have been on taxi squads. He would have been on, you know, fringe sort of roster spots at Wider 7th the year before. What's happened to the value in trades is what I'm interested in. Well, it's also important to remember that there is always a situation where you can be the one that buys in early and you profit or you can be afraid and not and now you're paying the premium. I always try to lean as far as I can on believing it as early as possible. I mean, we did get roasted on this on not roasted, but we had Scott Barrett himself disagree with how high we had C.J. Stroud before the market had adjusted that paid off. We're also a lot higher on Will Levis when he had first started. And that hasn't panned out yet. Never wrong. Always early. Never wrong. Always early. Get the shit. Exactly. But I think I think this is very much real. I mean, he. had the third highest fancy points per route run last season yeah and i'm gonna go i'm gonna actually give him second highest because kivante turpin can just get out of here uh like out

of receivers that played 10 games like he he was better on a per row basis than cd lamb by by point zero one points but it counts yeah so i just think that he's very good del might need some time when when the season starts i mean can we just stop putting him on the goal line this is so stupid but yeah i think it's a real shot to be the alpha there and you're gonna and you're going to and you're going to want that as for what you said tom lee about trades you you go to dynasty data lab dot com and you click on the player you can get some trades here you've got george kittle and josh downs for nico collins i mean we're taking that but on the 21st nego collins was going at the 611 yeah so you look at where he's going as of this podcast

and it is not the 611 so he has jumped Don't see a world where he has an opportunity to go up. No. From where he's at. But I mean, you've got Nico Collins and Austin Eccler for Zay Flowers and Naji Harris. I think I take that. Yep.

I mean, Nico Collins, Rahid, oh my God. Shaheed. I'm not even going to, I just butchered that. I'm so sorry.

And at first, the question is going to come down to, and I'll ask Andy before we move on to our last player. A lot of these are like this and a pick, player in a pick, Rashid Shaheed and a pick. Got it right that time. Christian Kirk and a pick.

So let's talk about the picks. I feel like that's going to be the most important. Where do you draw the line in the first round? What's the spot? Could you repeat it? I'm sorry. How I just the guy Blake? What is the pick?

What is the pick that you're putting a pause on? So if it's a Christian Kirk and a first, a Shaheed in a first, a pickens in a first, right? Amari in a first. What is the pick cut off? Because that's what people are going to want to know. How do I value him in terms of rookie? picks the 105 I don't want to give up anything above that right because that you is that 105 and down or does that mean you're 106 oh yeah I would send anything from 105 to 112 not

one or 301 101 to 104 am I completely lost no I wouldn't I would I wouldn't cough up the five or six yeah in a super flex Titan premium wouldn't cut up the five or six because I still want that may Daniels bowers tier I think a little bit ahead because I think the dynasty brain and maybe that's just me being a as Andy likes to say like a perpetual rebuilder but there's just something about that value to me that feels like I but he goes right beside the 106 yeah so I don't think I don't think you're nuts yeah I don't think what you're saying is like I don't think it's dumb like I get it I just I'm honestly like I just got

like I don't really I just don't really care about the Drake May part anymore like I don't want to draft that quarterback so I can get I would just, I don't, I value the pick. I understand it has a ton of value. I get that. But I don't, I'm not going to sit here and be like, oh, I can get Drake May. Like, I don't know, whatever. So I think it's fine.

I wouldn't send to, it's whatever at this point. Like, I'm so against dropping the rookie quarterbacks, especially when I have to pick, when I have to, like, pick after, you know, Caleb. So obviously, yeah, 101 to 104, I think is untouchable because those guys are probably, like, first round, or not first round startup picks, but definitely, you know, top 24 startup picks. So I don't want to give up any of them

But after that, 105, especially after the 106 That's easy I really don't care about the late first round at this point I know you brought up the quarterbacks The probably going to push back the stuff But there's just no running backs So that's also just going to make it The back end of the first round I think a lot slimmer than in years past

Yeah You're right, I think that's fair I'm probably looking at it as like dynasty brain off season Whatever I mean if you're talking about a guy who could be an upper tier wide receiver I think you are kind of right But I'm going to stick to my guns. I'm going to stick to that pick here.

One more player. Oh, go ahead. I was going to say, if you hear a top six rookie pick, it's a double take sort of moment of like, hmm, am I invest? What am I investing in? Do I really want to send that? And it always makes you have a another look at it. And you're probably, if you're sending away 105, you're probably getting potentially something back.

Yeah. So you could probably be annoying again and then ask for a second. A third. At least a third. Two thirds. Or as Andy knows, my favorite two seconds. Right? Like that's, that's been.

my bit for many years in leagues and he's in i'll give you two seconds not consistent exactly let's talk about our last player before we get out of here all right star wide receiver green bay jaden reed wide receiver 25 609 is where this man's coming off the board this year was the 27th in points per game wide receiver 25 overall at 1.9 points above expectation in points per game where are we out with jaden reed tom so i talked to Scott Barrett about Jaden Reed today just to make sure because it was Jaden Reid day on Twitter and I wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something I was like what is going on with this Jaden Reed thing because he is the he's the guy

drafted ahead of everyone else in the Green Bay offense and I struggle with this yeah because his role changed when everyone was healthy I think that offense is very Washington where we don't fully know what the fact is going to be and jaden reed lived off his touchdowns he had he had 16.2 points again like you mentioned but from weeks 9 to 18 so his big stretch where he was really blowing up but his expected points of game was 11.9 that is a steep drop off for a guy who is a part-time player and who did rely on touchdowns now regardless of what you want to say about the green bay offense and how good jordan love was again touchdown percentage regression

is real and when you look at the games that jaden reed ended up having he either rushed for a touchdown or he was receiving touchdowns for his for his big games in the second part of the year he had two three four five six of his eight touchdowns came from uh obviously from weeks seven to 17 and some of those games like even in games he scored a touchdown it wasn't exactly like a lights out situation he had a game where he had a rushing touchdown where you had a rushing touchdown where It just wasn't a stellar game for him, but his 20 and a half points. Okay, he had eight, eight catches, a rushing touchdown, and 27 receiving yards. Six catches for 52 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Then he had some good games, four for 112, four for 89 against Minnesota and Chicago. Like, those were pretty solid games. He had two touchdowns against Minnesota in that game as well. So that was obviously a positive, but we're talking about a guy who is legitimately a role player who has lived on touchdowns, and there are some better bets, in my opinion, at their cost. Don Tavian Wix is my

favorite pick on this team because he is the third or fourth most drafted receiver who did show that he was a pretty good player, 11.3.3.3 game on an 8.5 expected. He had a 0.6 fantasy points per route run

on a 0.46 expected fantasy points per route run. So still good in a limited role. I think Christian Watson also has a ton of upside but no floor. I think I want wicks in this situation, especially when you look at, and I talk to Ryan Heath about this a little bit today too, because I just had to figure out what was going on with the Jaden Reed conversations. Oh, he's Debo. He's not. He's not. I think that you're looking at a slot player that will be a very fine, you know, wire receiver three type when it's all said and done. We're talking about a guy that's going

just after Stefan Diggs, right before Debo Samuel. He should go before George Pickens because he get that guy out of here. But DeFonte Adams is going after him. Yeah. Travis Kelsey is going after him. I don't see it. I don't see the elite potential upside. He again, lived off of touchdowns.

We know how not sticky touchdowns are. They're not predictable. I think LaFleur is a phenomenal play caller. I think he's an underrated coach at this point. I think we all went, oh, it's Aaron Rogers, it's not the floor. And then you look what Jordan loved it this year. Very good. You have a very good offense.

But this offense feels very Washington commanders to me, where they have a ton of good wide receivers. You don't know who it's going to be on a week-to-week basis. Yeah. And without the rushing, and then again, the high touchdown rate, I don't love the efficiency on his targets. And we want efficiency in volume. He doesn't have either of those things, really.

So I think I'm out on him at his price at wide receiver 25. and I'm probably going to get burned at the stake by the Jaden Reed people, and that's fine. Yeah. There's just other players that I would take after him. I really would. Yeah, I think Jordan Love has a lot to be blamed for here because, like, him executing this system to what was an outstanding level has brought a lot of people to relevance that probably, not that they don't deserve it, but that weren't getting mentioned beforehand.

So it's got a feeling of like, you know, there's those quarterbacks in the league that love to hyper-target someone, and you're sort of trying to. to pick between two who it's going to be. This is not that. This is like, can we get enough out of Jaden Reed at this point to try and get six, eight good games a year where he makes the difference? Possibly. But unless you're playing best ball, my chance of picking those weeks over someone else, I fear is not high enough, especially for where he's going. So it's not that he can't be good. It's more, I'd rather put Debo in every week. I'd rather put Diggs in every week hoping for their floor or their boom game than try to pick the week that Reid's going to go off.

Yeah, and I know we're just going to get. We're just going to get, oh, but He did it last year and he had X point. I get it. I understand. I fully understand. I just don't see that being replicated at that touchdown rate. That touchdown rate scares the shit out of me. Yeah, I agree.

I think Jaden Reed, he's probably the most dangerous type of asset we have in Dynasty. We always talk about what's the most dangerous type of asset is it picks, is this, is that it's wide receivers like him that we're projecting and we don't really know. And then you can get burned. I can't pick, I don't want to be the first one to pick a pass.

Packers ride receiver because if you sit here a year a year from now and tell me it's Christian Watson, you tell me it's Donatea Wix, you tell me it's Romeo Dobbs. I can believe all that. So I just, I just, I think it's, I think he's a good player, but I think all the other players are also a good player. I think Christian Watson when he plays a good player. I think Romeo Dobbs has showed he's also probably a good player. So I just, I don't want to pick him there, especially with the people he's going in front of. And he's going right in front of the 109 and he's a player I would take any first for. Yeah. I would take a single first room. And he's a, and he's a single first room. And he's also a player that I feel like people are going to latch on to because, you know, they got him late.

I mean, we had JJ Zacharisen on the podcast for the full tilt. It's our most popular video ever where we asked him who his favorite sleeper was. It was Jaden Reed. And I mean, that's what you wanted. You got a guy who was a third round rookie pick moved up into the second round towards the end of the process. And it's very hard to let those guys go. But the tea leaves to me are telling me that I need to sell this. player because again we're looking at inefficient on his touches we're looking at a very specific

play he's not a receiver he's a weapon can't see me but I'm error quotationing that weapon part because that's usually a bad sign moving forward and an insane touchdown rate so upside is definitely there and he is priced as a wide receiver three but his price is telling me to get out and like and he said I would I'm probably just taking a first for him right now where again If we go and we click on his name, those are the type of deals. We're seeing a 251, a 24 third and a 251. Read in a 25 third for a 241 and a 26 third. We're seeing a lot of that.

Read for 24 second. I think I would take Reed over a second though. Yeah. Yeah, I think you're talking about a mid second. I think that's quite where I'm comfortable. We're getting read for Carr a fourth and a 25 second. I think that's fine, but I think I'm probably taking car there. I think if I was buying Jaden Reed, I'd want to buy him for a second and one of those fake value receivers like Jerry, Judy, Jahan Dotson. I want to sell them. I want to add them with a second to get read because they have value. They just train is crazy. They just stink. So that's how I would be trying to be quite. I agree. The fake value wide receivers, I think is like, you know, like best value and some of these off brand food stores. I think fake value wide receivers, I'm going to make an image and it's just like a no-name brand logo.

You're going to say fake value and I'm just going to list ingredients and it'll just be names of those wide receivers. But I think this trade is insane. I think this trade jumps the shark. We've got Jaden Reed for Drake London and Kendrae Miller. I mean, we're jumping the shark there. I think I'm taking Drake London there every time. So because Drake London's peripherals, still very good. But I think that's going to do it.

Yeah. So look, we didn't give you the roster cloggers. I'm going to set that up for next week as we look at the next bit of show that we want to do. This one is a little longer. I felt like we owed it to you guys after really messing up.

Last week, I am excited for all the listener league drafts. You guys wanted them. We did them. But the amount of DMs I'm getting, we're going to have more. I can't wait for that. I cannot wait to continue working

with everyone at fantasy points. I can't wait for the Tuesday fantasy points to come back with myself and Jacob and Lucas, just tons of dynasty content and we have even more on the way. I want to get some final thoughts here, Tom Lee. Well, we missed it last week, so let's get a little bit of the Aussie vernacular back amongst people. This week's word is Larican. Larican, what do we think Larican means? Let's go to Andy. I think it means a, I'm just going to do it every time. I think it means cigarette. Yeah, no, Laracan's not a cigarette. Laracan is like a cheat.

he muck about little bloke who's always up for a bit of a laugh. So everyone has one of their friendship group. Yeah. Because I was excluded from guessing for some reason. Yeah. I don't understand why. Yeah. There's only one.

There's only one guess each time. I feel, I feel really offended right now. But I was going to say like a leprechaun. Yeah. So I don't know how. I'm just saying that's, you know, it kind of reminded, it kind of remind me of that. You know, I'm just saying.

Yeah. but we do all have that friend we do have that really annoying chee-y-mastered yeah always got a little quip to say andy i was gonna say i think i was the lyricate of this episode yeah and in every dm that i get sent from you yeah a hundred percent let's get a final thought andy i think this was a really good episode i think this is our best song we had a lot of we had a lot of good debates we had uh yeah it got me heated a couple times but i think it's i think it's kind i think it was a fun one yeah we don't don't ever dis

jalen warren on this podcast again he's fucking goaded and you should never forget it my final thoughts always the same dynasty is supposed to be fun you are supposed to have fun with this game there's many opportunities that await you you have to be open-minded you have to be willing to change your opinions keep tabs on the fantasy points Dynasty content. Again, Ryan Heath is pumping out phenomenal work. Retrospectives about the 2023 season that will really help you make decisions moving forward. Reminder again, Scott Barrett is joining Dynasty Points on the 13th, not next week's show. Tuesday, we are coming in with how to value players that are sophomores and third years

versus rookie picks this year. We get a lot of questions about that. Jacob, Lucas and I, we are going to hit that. Can't wait for any of that. I just want to remind everyone that there are people on the other side of the screens that you are at. Again, this game is supposed to be fun. Let's remember that being a decent human being is super, super important. Unless you're dissing Jalen Warren, and in which case, everyone in your league and group chats needs to harass that human being endlessly until they leave the league.

I want to remind everyone that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose your best days. They're always spent Tilton. Good night, everybody. This was fun.