Fantasy Football Daily - Dynasty Points: The Rookie Radar Scouting Dynasty Rookie Picks Trade Value

Episode Date: February 27, 2024

The 2024 rookie fever has begun with draft picks climbing up draft boards al across dynasty fantasy football boards. Jakob Sanderson (@JakobSanderson), Thomas Tipple (@ElNostraThomas), and Lucas Gilbert (LGilbertFF) look at the trade values of the 2024 rookie class compared to elite veterans. How can you capitalize on the late first-rounders in exchange for passed-on veterans? The 2024 off-season is about to kick off, and Dynasty Points will be there every step of the way. Undervalued Dynasty Startup Veterans - https://t.co/ZeXdhjqB7n Thinking About Thinking - https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/p... #2024dynasty #2024rookievalues --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Tuesday night and that can only mean one thing that you are here with fantasy points.com. We took a bit of a hiatus for the Tuesday night dynasty points. We needed it. It was a long season. Big changes for us. Obviously coming over here, getting things started up from the ground up for us with fantasy points. But we're here. We're kicking off the season.

This is now the, from what I believe, the fourth or fifth year for us here. Jacob and I, Lucas joined us a couple of years ago. I'm excited because we're doing the rookie content different this year. We used to always do a countdown or a lead up. We're not doing that. We are hammering guests more than ever before the draft. We have it in the works. We're going to have a list of names like we've done before.

It is going to be fantastic. Of course, if you're watching over on YouTube and you have not subscribed yet, go and do that. That's fantasy points on YouTube. Hit the notification. bell do all that the early bird special is active until march so you have a little bit of time left to go and do that but of course i'm ready to get things going i am your host with most time on his hands i am thomas simple find me at el nooster thomas and the sixth sick sheeks sixth sheep's sick is

believed to be the toughest tongue twister in the english language oh i didn't know the order of things here but I'm Jacob. My fun fact today, I'm going to make it a trivia question for you guys. Do you know how many wide receivers in NFL history total touchdown passes, you would need to combine to match Penny Pickett's career total touchdown passes? Oh my God.

Combine? So if you take the, well, anyway, the answer is three. The answer is three. Antoine Randallel, Mohamed Sunu, and Jacoby Myers. You total their career touchdown passes. That equals all of Kenny Pickett's career touchdown. John Fatt. Oh my God. I thought the quarterbacks and the like the Derek Henry and Kenny Pick his stuff was funny, but that's unreal. Holy cow. Well, I'm Lucas Gilbert. My fun fact right now is since we're coming up on Leap Day, I'd mention an obscure law from the Scots in 128.

They would allow a woman to propose marriage on Leap Day to any man. If they declined, they would have to pay a fine of like a kiss on a cheque. or giving them money for a nice new silk dress. And I find that very fun. Oh my good. Hey, shout out to the Scouts, man. Bindle, shout out to Tom's article. You're right. You know what?

I'm really mad at promoting my own stuff. debut article did go out at FantasyPoints.com. You can go check that out, three undervalued dynasty assets in startups. Of course, we had Devante Adams, who got snipe from me the morning that that article came out in a startup draft, which was really fun. They made fun of me for that. course, Zemir White and my love for Gino Smith because shout out Gino, he deserves more love. The man is just good.

Not just under pressure, but in a clean pocket. He is one of the best pressure evaders in the league. Go check that article out right now. It's over at fantasy points.com. Appreciate all the love for that too, by the way. I was sweating it. I was sweating it real hard. But Ryan Heath was a G, an absolute

G. So with the offseason being here, it's important to note that we're not a news show. We're not a news broadcast. We don't cover. every team, every press conference, because there's just a million things circulating right now. The coach speak conundrum is so alive and well, it's sickening, truly.

So what we like to do in the off season here is do a little bit called, do we give a shit? Do we care about something that was newsworthy to interrupt the regular programming? I have a couple of things, but I wonder, Jacob, was there something in the news this week

that really stood out to you? Oh, not too much for me. I don't know. I read the news. My favorite is the, this isn't news, but my personal favorite Twitter thing is just every Ryan Bulls press conference, every person tweeting out the select quotes that back up their position. And Lucas and I have, I forget, do you have $50 on this or $100 on this?

I believe it's 50. You're muted. You're muted, sir. Geez, we're coming strong. It is 100 bucks. Yeah. How are you feeling? How are you feeling about the state of your hundred at the moment?

I've gone back and forth. I feel about the same as I did whenever we made that bet, but I'm also an optimist, so I'm going to keep thinking that's going to be on my side. I've heard news from both. We'll see how it goes. For those unaware, this was before we ended. And the bet is if the bears pick a quarterback at one overall.

So if they trade down at all, even if they still pick a quarterback, Lucas wins that. If they pick any quarterback, doesn't actually have to be Caleb Williams. But they do it at first overall. I win the bet. What did you guys see on the wire that's of interest to you? Well, I got two. I got two.

So Gino Smith contract restructuring is massive. It pretty much locked him in there. Trading him now just does even more damage to him. And they're not really saving a ton of cap if they do cut him. It is a massive cap hit. It makes no sense. I feel like this defense is ready to go and win. They've got one of the best young coaches,

the running game, they need some offensive line. They've got weapons. I just think this contract is massive, making, again, a reason why I wrote up Gino. This week, he's a massive value, something to keep an eye on with Tyler Lockett there. So that's big news.

And then I want to just talk about the Rashad White thing. So there was a quote, this week, or not this week, it was today. Todd Bulls says that the Bucks would like, like to bring in another running back to help take some of the weight off for shod white's workload no shit like running backs just don't get 85% of the

snaps regular teams hate that there's like three guys okay rashad white fell into it in my opinion this this year i feel like they thought they had something maybe with shon tucker i think we all maybe hoped a little bit turns out hashtag can't play ball vaughan terrible the other options just aren't there so they let them ride with it. The only way I'm concerned about Rashad White is if they bring in somebody that isn't just for LDD responsibilities. Rashad White, not the best runner of the football.

Great pass catcher of the football, which is what matters anyway. We just do this every year when a team, we get panicked because the team's like, yeah, we want to split up some of the work. No shit. Yeah. Do it every year.

Be concerned if it is a, High value player, like one of the big free agents, which wouldn't make any sense considering they need to sign Evans and Baker. And then if it's like a high-ish rookie running back, then we're concerned. Like, I just feel like we do this every year. Every year, this is like an eternal battle that I get into it, people where it's like, oh, this guy's coming to take his work. He's coming to take his work.

It's always exhausting. Yeah. No, not at all. Lucas News for you? It was going to be the same thing. Will the Bears trade 101? I'm hoping it's going to be just like something really boring if they just moved down to 102. But I also am really, my dream is that the Falcons trade up and get Caleb Williams just

because I think that that would be so much fun from a fantasy perspective. They would also have to trade away like at least three number one picks and whatever they made them do in a draft day. It's going to be a call like that. So it would be fun, be very cool, chaotic. it give us a lot of really good things to talk about for a while, at least on this show and sometimes it come. But I'm going to still be semi-realistic.

Yeah, I mean, I think everyone's just kind of waiting for that shoe to drop. And I think we'll be waiting for that shoe to drop a lot longer than maybe what was discussed. So we're going to a quick second. When we come back, we're going to get into the meat of the episode. We are going to get into why we are here.

we'll explain that in just five seconds get a little break from our voices so the off season is full of a lot of different things things that we've been putting off things that we have been waiting to do games that we've i mean hey hell divers too has just taken up oddly amount of time but there is some work to be done there are questions that have been asked and now is the time to sort it out on the market report we have talked to about what it is to be determined a rebuild. Are you a tweener? Are you a contender? Well, now it's time to see if we can take advantage of some veteran values.

One of the questions we get asked a lot in the Discord, which you can go and sign up for us, so long as you have a membership at fantasypoints.com. They are free to make. You do not have to buy a subscription, even though it is highly encouraged. I would do so for the information given. Time to discuss.

valuing veterans versus picks. I've seen on the timeline, or would you give up 104 for Breece Hall, 105 for Breeze Hall? You know, is Stefan Diggs or Devante Adams, the type of receivers that we should be spending our late firsts on? I mean,

Jacob, you are the king of the often injured and always veteran wide receivers. So this should fit right in the wheelhouse. Lucas, you have disdain for running backs. I just think that this is going to fit because this year in particular,

I feel like people are, more okay moving their picks just for how much this draft class is being dunked on as of right now. So let's talk about it. Let's figure it out. And I just want to ask in a very broad manner. I mean, Jacob, you're one of the first people that I've seen. You're thinking about thinking rankings that have included rookies.

Fantasy points, we're not adding those for our dynasty ranks until after the combine. So you obviously have had an early dive. When you are sifting through your rankings, the link to think. about thinking, by the way, is in the description. When you are sitting down, picking through your rookies, how did that process go and how did you factor these kind of things in between rookie vets and situations? Yeah, so I only have the actual names in right now for the top seven.

If I do my next update, I'll probably include at least McCarthy in there with his draft capital looking close to locked in. I'll probably add in Brian Thomas into the mix, maybe a couple of the other wide receivers that are looking more and more likely to go in round one. Yeah, I just try to, I try to think of these guys in terms of like, okay, what tier would I kind of put them in?

And with the quarterbacks in particular, like, you know, it really depends on your level of certainty with these guys, right? Like Daniels, for me, falls into that tier of, we know he's going to run, he's going to get the draft capital, so that's going to secure him.

a certain level of like short to medium term floor. And I'm not, I'm not like bearish on him as a prospect and I'm not overly bullish either. I really think that that's like an either way type of prospect profile. Compared to, you know, Caleb and Drake May where you get not as much mobility as Daniels, but you do get mobility. And you get draft capital and you get,

I think, like a pretty sterling prospect profile on both of these guys. So they're going to be pretty high up the ranks. Like it's sort of it's going to be, you know, I still have them behind like the totally proven pocket passers like the Herbert and the borough. But that's, but I kind of have them in that next grouping where you're getting a little bit of extra upside on the rushing. And of course, you're just giving away the certainty in that, you know, we don't know

exactly how they're going to pan out just yet. But I think that they should be ranked very aggressively. Marvin Harrison is the tricky one because, I mean, it's going to be really hard to value him. He's going to be coming in valued really on par with really, you know, demonstrably special receivers. I don't, like you have to get to like Justin Jefferson level basically for that to be a massively

successful investment, right? If he, if he's like, has like a Garrett Wilson, Chris Olavie first two years, it's just like kind of a, it's probably going to stay right where he is, right?

going to go up that much on that, which is a pretty crazy high bar to hold someone to. And all that being said, I have no reason to doubt his prospect profile. I think he's probably going to be fantastic. It wouldn't shock me if he's up there with Chase and Jefferson and Lamb within, you know, like week seven. So, you know, I'm trying with neighbors too. It's like you're trying to rank these guys aggressively because they have that immense value upside, production upside.

But it's going to be a challenge, you know, like the market has been very, very sharp on those receivers. So I think right now I have each of my top six guys in the top 32. And I have a Dunezay probably maybe too far removed from that group. And he might even come up a little bit the next time I do my rank. I have him at 52. Okay. That I just started doing sort of picks. So I pick 108, which I guess is J.J. McCarthy would be right now where I'd slot him in. He comes into 63. All those guys I have as valued as base one or higher. And then, you know, beyond that, then I kind of have it into the late one type valuations for the guys who, crazy or not, is actually in the late one.

Yeah, I think that's important. And like you were saying with Marvin Harrison, there is an inherent risk a little bit with drafting these guys as high as they are because there really is a chance, no matter how good a prospect is that they just won't meet that expectation. I mean, Pukkahua had to break records and he has finally worked himself into the late. third. Like it's, the dude was everything you could possibly ask for. And we were still looking at a late third pick. Rishie Rice basically did.

Shout out to Buck, who's going to absolutely get on me for even mentioning this. But Rishie Rice had a very Amunross St. Brown finished to his season, even though the peripherals were a little different, right, a little bit more of a screen merchant, a lot more against linebacker coverage than anything else.

But he still put it up and we're still looking at round five for she Rice, right? Like, it's, it's very interesting how rookies get valued to production. People are going to come in and expect Jamar Chase with the neighbors who a lot of people are pushing ahead of Harrison. I just think we're at that tiki tack part of the off season where we do these kind of things. But, well, how do you guys think, like if you had to guess how the top, let's say eight, because I think after that it really splinters and we probably need a lot more information on draft capital. But it seems like there's a lot of. guys that we kind of know where they're going to go in the draft,

probably all going to be top half of the first round picks. And like if you were to guess and you can put it into tiers if you want, how do you think the ADP is going to end up on these guys? I'm happy to give my take, but you guys, I can let you guys go first. Not how necessarily you'd put them, but how do you think the market's going to end up reacting to these guys in May? I think that the wide receivers are going to get absolutely pushed up. and I think it's because there's a lot of open spots for wide receivers.

I think there's going to be a lot of on the edge veterans that have a lot to be concerned about. So I think the guys that are questionable, like leg it. Oh my goodness. I can't say any of these names. Parasol, right? There's a lot of these guys. Jermaine Burton, we got asked about today.

Franklin, another one. I think they're going to get pushed up. Brian Thomas Jr., who I really like. I think he is going to get pushed up. Of course, obviously all dependent on where they go in the draft, but these guys third and fourth round, I feel like are getting it pushed up a little bit higher than previous years because of how depleted the running backs are.

And I think it's just going to push a lot of the Christian Watson's, Terry McLorins, Godwins, and Coopers, even further down draft boards. So that's where I feel like it's kind of settling. And I think the quarterbacks, I think they're going to remain a value. I think the McCarthy's will remain a value. I think Daniels will get pushed up a little higher than maybe he should. But there is a great round three and early four ADP quarterback dead zone right now

that I feel like is really going to get put to task with the rookie QBs coming in. Is there a pick right now in the first round, say? or even beyond that, like is there a certain rookie pick or a tier of rookie picks that you guys would be looking at a trade for right now? I would be looking, I'd be looking to trade for the 108. I still don't think of the, I still don't think of the McCarthy theme has,

has fully settled into the market where I think it's, it's a little bit of like a six and then a Dune's day and then I don't know. And I would feel pretty comfortable trading for the 108. And then beyond that, just like, you know, I think there's going to be come drafts, I suspect a ton of fluidity in the one through five where it looks like in all, it looks like the top five in dynasty rookie drafts have a fairly reasonable chance of being the top five picks in the actual NFL draft. And I think that will, you know, I would want to be the guy picking five and having

that decision made for me. So that would be another spot too, where especially if there are people that have more of a position in mind where they don't want to have, you know, if you don't need to choose between the quarterback or the wide receiver, that would be a nice, nice spot.

Yeah, I think that the 104, at least to me, is like, that's the pick that I want. If I have a pretty good, if I have a pretty good handle on where my team is, and I can move from an earlier first. Like, if I have the 101 and I can move down to 104, I'm taking a really nice deal to move down,

and I'm still really happy with anyone that I'm going to land there, because I'm either going to get one of the top three quarterbacks or Marvin Harrison, Jr. I'm fine with moving up to 107. I really like to do that. I don't know necessarily if I want to move from 101 all the way back to 107 just because of how much you'd have to be searching for to move that far. Now, however, we're talking about where they're going to line up, say, in your startup

drafts, the running back position, as you all touched on, is going to be extremely interesting. I think right now before the Combine, before the NFL draft, Braylen Allen's the RB1 on most people's boards. And he might not go until the ninth round in a lot of drafts, maybe even a little bit later. Every time I'm on Braylon Allen right now, get out of here with Braylin Allen. This guy thinks. On a lot of boards, a lot of websites, he's going to be the number one running back. We've got another hundred on this.

We've been on 100 on this. I don't think he is. We have a video on a Debbie show saying, beware of Braylon Allen. All right. I'm just saying. This whole Braylon Allen conversation is we do this every year. Braylon Allen's not going on day two.

Railen Allen is not going to be drafted until the third round of your rookie drafts because he's going to be drafted in the sixth round of the NFL draft. I don't care about Braylon Allen. Right now, DLF, he is the number one running back according to ADP. I think he's definitely going to fall. If it's not Braden Allen. This is David Bell. This is like every year the fantasy community at some numbers darling that the NFL doesn't like that we draft.

And then we're like, oh my God, I can't really. Now it's not even in numbers, darling, which is the sad thing. He's just massive. And we'll see what he runs in the 40. But the O'D probably be Jonathan Brooks or maybe even Blake Corum as the first running back off the board. But they're not going to go until super late. I think, Thomas, you're right on whatever you're saying. that there's just going to be so many of these rookie wide receivers that are moving up.

I don't know in your rookie drafts where the first running back is going to go. Maybe 206. Oh, no. Way earlier. Way earlier. We'll see. I don't know. There's no.

We talked about, we talked about before. I think one, 9, 110. There's always one running back that creeps his way in there, whether they belong to be there or not. There's a lot. There's a lot,

like, there's a ton of running back openings, right? Like there's, think of all the free agent running back. running backs that are kind of washed to half washed. But there's going to be, I think that there won't be a high end. But I fully expect Brooks to go late two or early three. I think Benson is a shot of going in round two.

I think we'll see Corm at some point on day two. I think more likely round three. Bucky Irving wouldn't be surprised to see him go on round three. You mentioned Raylon Allen. I think he has a chance at round three, even though I think he sucks. I think by the end of the day, we're going to see. Yeah, Marshawn Lloyd is being mentioned. Like, I don't think it's a, I think that we will see a handful of running backs.

I don't know exactly who they are. I would say the two that I'm pretty confident we will see go off the board for sure in round three, with a decent chance of round two to me are Benson and Brooks. But I would suspect that we'll still see a handful of running backs go on day two. And a couple of them are going to get good spots. And teams are going to need running backs. So I think that by the end of the day, we're still going to see the running back free where like,

Right. Because our people, I don't know that people are all that sold on, like everybody kind of agrees on the first three receivers. And they don't all agree on the order, but they kind of, but they'll least agree on who they are. The NFL teams to also agree on who they are.

And then it's kind of everybody's pick your favorite, right? Like I'm, there's, there's Brian Thomas wide receiver four people. There's, uh, there's Troy Franklin wide receiver four people. there's both of the Texas guy it's wide receiver four people.

There's Keon Coleman. Like I've seen six different wide receivers that are people's wide receiver four. And so, and there's so many of them. And I mean, all we keep hearing is there's going to be a gazillion wide receivers

that are going to go in this like late first into the second that I can see it being a scarcity effect where like, let's say it's Benson of Brooks. Maybe it's not. Maybe it's out. Maybe it's corn, whoever. Let's say there's two running backs where it's like this guy looks like

they're going to be a starter within the first four weeks of the season. And there's 12 wide receivers who go between like pick 20 and pick 60. I see people being like, let me just get the running back because I have options here at wider receiver.

I can pick Ricky Pearsall at the 303 and he went in the second round. I can pick Malachi Corley at the 306 and he went in the second round. I can see that happening. This is the James Cook Corollary where he probably didn't deserve it. Like, I mean, one of my favorite videos I ever had was myself freaking out that people were pushing James Cook up to the 106 and rookie drafts so I couldn't draft him anymore.

Some would argue that it's panned out. Some wouldn't, but do with that what you will. But I think every year running back gets pushed up no matter how bad we think a class gets. I said this, I think a month plus ago that I said a running back is going to be there, whether we want them to be or not. my favorite pick to be acquiring right now is truly, I want to say 107. Because I feel like 107 is really attainable. 108, I think it's a great pick. I think you're right with the cutoff.

But I like 107, like even in startups, like you can hit 107 and forego the JSN, Zayflowers, Addison, Metcalf, Kenneth Walker that immediately follows and feel good. good, whereas the 106 is a little pushing it with A. Chan, McBride, Collins, DJ Moore. I drafted the 107 and the only startup that I've done this year. And I drafted the 106 too. And I had to take the 106 out, I think, 311 at the 107 at the 511. It was like a two round gap. Now, I think the perception of a Dune's Day has become more favorable since that startup, but it does still feel like this. And it's interesting, just depending on you talk to, there's all these different gaps, right? Lucas just say, oh, it's four.

Some people would include neighbors in the top tier. Some people would include Bowers in the top tier. Some people include O'Donzee in the top tier. I think it's kind of two tiers for me. And I mean, it's not a cool thing to say, but I like J.J. McCarthy. We'll have Whitefield on the show at some point in the season. He likes him a lot more than I do or anyone that I know does. But I like him, especially in a dynasty context,

where we got a guy that is almost certainly not going ahead of the 1-8. in like probably 90% of these rookie drafts. And that really limits how much risk you're taking on. So all I got to do is just have this guy. Like if you draft them and he starts five years in the NFL, like that's a great use of the 108. And then everything beyond that is gravy. And the Duke can run.

So I'm, I think he's going to be like one of my most drafted players probably in draft this year, which it's kind of funny because I think he's a meme. Well, let's look at it this way, right? With the 108, Kenny Pickett was going at the 108. and Kenny Pickett was viewed as beyond disgusting in terms of his draft prospect profile compared to what you might potentially getting in McCarthy or heaven forbid Daniels falls for any reason in the draft like he doesn't get as high capital as we want then wide receivers get pushed up

I mean there is a world where Brock Bowers just gets absolutely shoehorned at the draft falls for whatever reason and look I'm not this isn't a strong an argument. I am talking about there are already people starting to try to make a case that he is just a screen merchant, Scott Barrett. There's a possibility that he falls for people because it's a tight end and they want the receivers or the quarterbacks get pushed up. 108 just feels like a sexy pick. And 107 being not that much more inexpensive, especially in terms of the players going around it, I don't see that much of a difference. I 106 is still embedded in the market's mind as

being the cutoff when realistically the cutoff is probably closer to 108 like Jacob had laid out. So those are kind of my favorite. And Mesa, I see your question. Is there much of a difference between the 106 and the 107? Seems like some, oh my God,

seems like some kind of drop off after six, especially for wide receiver. And he says Rome. That's exactly what we mean. So if people are sketched out about anything after the 106, that makes it a little bit more of an opportunity, not buying the dip, because remember, buying the dip isn't real, but buying the opportunity to acquire is important.

And 108 and 107 just seems to be the, you know, adopted stepchild of the rookie picks, something that I can definitely relate to. So with that being that, let's lead into the next portion. We're going to take another quick five second break. And when we come back, we have questions from the discords about veterans to rookies. We see all of your questions about who we feel about Brian Thomas Jr. I mean, I like them. I love them a lot.

Josh Seafis, like this is all stuff that we will be covering in the coming months. So we're very early in the rookie prospect process. We are going to cover all of these guys, our late favorites, our early favorites, all that stuff as we carry on. Today's episode, really focusing on the veterans and rookie picks. So keep that in mind. We're not ignoring you. We love all of you. It just, that's not the outline for this program.

So we're going to keep it on track so we don't go two hours this week. We're going to be back in five seconds and we're going to get into the questions from the Discord. Sit tight. Do you have a question that you can't seem to find the answer to? Do you want somebody to sit in front of a microphone and a camera and tell you exactly how they feel so you can use it as cannon fodder to come back at them if it doesn't work out for you? There's a really easy way that you can do that. Go to FantasyPoints.com, get yourself a free subscription, get in the Discord, head into the Dynasty chat,

start asking some questions, and you never know when your question is going to end up on the channel. Like this one here from FantasyT, I can only. assume that's fantasy high tea. But in Superflex, would you trade the 107 and Marquise Brown to move up to the 104? This seems like an easy answer to me, but I'd be interesting to hear other people's takes. Considering we just said that we like the 107 pick, so this is actually quite perfect. The easy answer is if you need a quarterback, then for sure. I'd be willing to.

if it's just a matter of probably winding up between the difference between the Dunezay and Neighbors, then I think it's really up to you. I think that's like a pretty reasonable value and it just depends on your level of confidence in neighbors being better than a Dunezay. I like neighbors profile more for sure, but I don't know that the NFL agrees.

I think that the NFL probably sees them pretty similarly. And so I think it comes down to a U value. Like I can say from the numbers, neighbors profile is a lot better. In terms of what a lot of the film people say, I think you can easily find a proponent for either one of them on either side of the aisle. So I think I'm really just, at that point, it's just a judgment call. I guess I would say probably I would do it if I was, I would tiebreak towards doing it just because you have more of that out between,

you're either getting neighbors or you're getting the last of those three quarterbacks. And if you really do want to call an audible later, probably get an opportunity to trade that for Hall. Maybe somebody wants one of those three big quarterbacks. Absolutely. I think that this is a really good trade set up to move from 107 to 104 of just adding Marquis Brown on there. I think it's pretty fair for both sides, actually. And best case scenario, though, if you move up to 104, you're getting Marvin Harrison, Jr. If you're in a league where it goes three quarterbacks right off the bat.

I don't think that's going to happen a lot, but still in the realm of possible. right now. And I'm definitely wanting Marvin Harrison Jr. or Drake May over someone like Roma Dunzee, who just be personally, I'm a little bit more skeptical on or the J.J. McCarthy potentially at 107. I much rather have that next tier of prospect over them. And if all I have to do is pay Marquise Brown to move to that, I'm perfectly fine doing that. See, for me, it comes down to whether or not you are a natural 104 or not. Did your team just perform so poorly that you naturally finish as the 104? Did you overly tear down your roster and devoid it of any and all talent to get the lowest pick possible and realize that you still need pillars to build your house on?

You need a foundation? Well, adding a good player in Mark Heath Brown, who has a lot of opportunity to go up, who has had to deal with his quarterback not having legs on two different teams, right, during his runs of being a wide receiver one. Then he has his own injury history. He has an opportunity, still young, decent player, slide him into your flex. And then moving back and attaining another asset in 107, which as we were just discussing,

still has the opportunity to net you a high tier prospect in the draft process. To me, if you're a natural 104, you do this trade. If you're not a natural 104 and it's a bit of luxury, I would say don't do that deal in terms of shaping it from a team build perspective. I think Jacob and Lucas hit it on the player by player perspective, but from a pure team building perspective, that's how I'm looking at it. Next question here from Slane.

It's a 12-team superflex. It's a PPR. It's a one-and-point tight-end premium. Of course. It says, got an offer for, my Alave Pickens, Daniel Jones, one of my favorite, Zamir White, and Cole Komet for the 102, the 102, the 103, and the 302. He says, this feels like a slight overpay when I'm built to compete. And then he started to list the rest of the team, didn't need that portion.

But this is a huge deal for someone that feels like they are ready to compete. My early instinct is, yes, you do this trade. Alave really sucks to give up and seeing all those names like Pickens and Jones and Zemir and Kemet, especially in a tight end premium, can be a little jarring up front losing that many guys for a couple of picks.

But for the 102 and the 103 in a Superflex draft, you're just smashing this deal in my opinion. Yeah, I would prefer the pick side here, but I think it's pretty fair. I mean, the way I'd look at it is, I think I slightly prefer Harrison to Olave in a vacuum, and the market prefers him even more than I prefer him. And then the rest, you're looking at like pickens really pobble together with some

kind of more fringy assets that I don't frankly care that much about and that I'd be pretty happy to consolidate into a big piece. And that piece presumably initial is probably May or Daniels. So yeah, I'm taking this. Yeah, absolutely. I don't think I could say too much more on it. And even if like say Marvin Harrison Jr.'s the 101 in your draft and you're stuck there with 102, 102, 103. And you're like, I don't really want to take two quarterbacks here.

You can easily move that 103 back to a later pick 105 to 107, 108 range and still get a really good player plus somebody of comparable value to start to replace some of the other more minor pieces like the Samir White, the Cole Commets that you gave up in your deal. And I'll just say this, by the way, the people, like, I mean, you guys, I think neighbors and Harrison are both phenomenal prospects. So I'm not going to begrudge anyone too hard for ranking one or both of those ahead of one or more of the top three quarterbacks in a vacuum. But I assume we're going to get a bunch of questions of people who tanked and people who there were so many quarterback injuries last year that I would bet that more tankers coming into this draft have more quarterbacks than usual. I would bet that a lot of tanking teams traded for one of either Kyler early in the year or Burrow late in the year or Herbert late in the year or Watson late in the year. Like there's so many of your quarterbacks, Richardson. So I would bet there's a bunch of tanking teams. And I know.

Because I have a few teams like this that have some combination of two of those guys, have like Richardson and Kyler or Richardson and Herbert or Burrough and Watson, whatever. And then they're looking at, you know, they have the 101 and the 104 or the 102 and the 120. 05 or something like, you know, something like that. And they're wondering, you know, do I take, I don't really want to take multiple of these quarterbacks trying to fill your slots. I would trust whatever your ranks are on that or unless you just think it's a true tie and you want to split up tiebreakers. Look at the season we just went through, look at the season we go through every year.

How many teams did you have or did you see that went into the year with three starting quarterbacks and eight weeks in, they have like one starting quarterback, right? And there's also, it really feels like it's kind of a split down to half of the league right now where you have all these young quarterbacks. They have a lot of job security. Some of them probably don't have as much as we think. And a lot of these older guys are on a one to two year basis, right? Pretty much right when you get around QB 17, 18 in your dynasty ranks. So I wouldn't be concerned about rostering four quarterbacks that are reasonably high value and either trading one in the summer or just figuring it out and just letting the piece.

come together as they will. I would not be forcing any positional need stuff. And if that means you're taking Caleb and May or Caleb and Daniels, I'm totally fine doing that. Well, let's not rule out either that realistically, if it's Alave and Pekin to Daniel Jones, we would obviously perceive Alave is pretty good,

even though he hasn't really put it all together as much as we would like. Talk to him before, he's really teetering on that nesting doll. If he comes out and has the same kind of year as he's had the last two. Like we're really pushing the T. Higgins narrative with Chris Alavi at this point, which would be a letdown.

But you would get a chance to re-roll that. So for me, I'm looking at a swap in Neighbors or Marvin potentially replacing Alavi on my roster. And you're really taking Pickens and Daniel Jones, Cole Commet, and White to upgrade to Caleb Williams. if Marvin Harrison goes first, or you could possibly take in neighbors

and Marvin Harrison and stack your wide receiver room, or you can take Daniels or May and really upgrade from Daniel Jones, because we know what Daniel Jones is. So even if you're competing, there is a world where either way this falls for you in the top three picks, it feels like you're still upgrading your real difference makers on your roster,

because let's face it, George Pickens, without broken coverage or egregious, offensive pass interference, that guy, no matter how hard announcers will him to get the ball, he's just not that good a player. So he seems definitely replaceable, if you would. So to me, even as a contender, it may look like a lot, but I feel like the value was there, no matter what. Mesa says just feels like JJ needs a lot of grooming.

Hey, maybe he does. Yeah. But our own Brett Whitefield, he thinks he's the most complete quarterback in the draft as of right now, not for fantasy, but in the NFL, we'll see if that matters. I mean, we'll talk a lot about McCarthy, probably especially on that episode, but just in general, I think he's a really high for privacy investment. Like if I just think of what quarterbacks need to do in the NFL, as these like Shanahan schemes, just like infest our world and populate half the offense of the NFL, like,

he can throw over the middle, he has the arm strength, he has the requisite mobility to run a bootleg-based offense, to run his own read-based offense, and he's played in that pro style. You can make the functional read. So I don't know. I like McCarthy as a dynasty investment and as a, I don't know, if I trust in NFL GMs, like I would, yeah, I'm seeing the JJ Purdy, right? That's exactly where I was going to go. So I comp them to golf with mobility. So that is maybe a little purdy. I think Purdy is like maybe a more of a creative flair, which maybe we'll see if McCarthy brings that. So, you know, maybe Purdy is just golf with mobility.

So that's probably a similar con. But like if I trusted my GM to take McCarthy and just play him for four years and get cheap 15th best quarterback in the league production and then move on, I'd be pumped. I don't trust GMs to do that. So I think I think at some point he's going to get $50 million and maybe he's worth that. I'm a little bit more skeptical of that aspect. of his profile, what the upside is. But in terms of like executing the dominant offensive structure in the NFL, I think he can do that, which means I think he's going to have a long career.

You know my come for him right now, like early in the process. And I know, I know I'm just, I'm fluffing them up here a little bit, but it's Gino. You're talking about pocket mobility with a good arm that can run a pro style offense on a run first team. To me, that Chuck, that just checks every box. Hopefully we don't wait eight to nine years to see that come through. for it is with Gino, but that's kind of where I look at that same thing. And remember, Gino was a top 15 rusher or a scrambler this year. And last year, I guess two years ago,

he was also very good of rushing with over 300 yards. So I feel like that's probably what we're looking at, which would be a top 12 ceiling. But like you said, he probably settles more in that Jared Gough pre-lighting it up and into that Derek car range. But again, Derek car is still valuable. So can't really complain.

too much there. This next one I feel like is going to be a bit of a longer winded response. So we did this, Jacob, a little while ago, I think it was, maybe even would have been last year. What do you actually do with the 101? So we've talked to, who do you take? Right. So the question is, what should you do with the 101 if you are a legitimate 101? Should you trade it? should you make the pick

should you accrue the most value what do I do the Washington commanders stick with Justin Fields uh no that was uh uh I don't know like it okay well I'll just I'll put it this way I have Caleb Williams ranked

at least one tier above anyone else I have him ranked at the bottom of my three to four tier and then I have May and Harrison um right around two and a half so if you give me a late first, then I would happily move down. I would probably need at least that or multiple early to mid seconds would be the difference

to me. So I'm not, I'm not like writing Caleb no matter what, but I think that, yeah, in most, in most settings, I do think there is a discernible difference between him and the rest. And I'll probably be picking him with most of my picks. I think probably am maybe a little bit more on the Caleb side than the, the market at large, which I think is a little bit more ambivalent. I also think just my attitude with a lot of this class is like, I can't remember a class in the last while where there's really no one in the top group that I'm out on. And so usually the way I've kind of approached these

rookie drafts is like, I kind of just pick whichever guys I'm okay missing out on. And then I just try to be above the market kind of on the rest of them at those guys' expense. And so it's kind of easy to say like, well, if Caleb's the 101, I'm just going to take him at the 101 and not worry about it. It's a little harder here because, like, in a vacuum, I'd like to be overweight on all these guys, think they're all pretty terrific profiles or very exciting profiles. So it's going to be hard to navigate. But long answer is that, yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm thinking Caleb. Okay. I can see a world where trading the 101 is more beneficial for your team. Like, if your team is really, really that bad, I mean, we're talking, you started

Jacobi Myers and your Superflex. All year because it was just that devout of talent. Yeah, I can see a possibility where you trade the 101. I'm not doing that. Young elite quarterback upside is what we want anyway. Like, what are you going to do with the 101? Go and trade for just another quarterback that's just older and already elite that we already love. Like, obviously the risk is big, but you're rebuilt.

That risk was coming no matter what. I don't think we overthinking it this year. I think you make the pick at the 101. and I think that pick is Caleb Williams for a complete rebuilding team. Just flat out. Lucas? I mean, fair enough.

It's a little different than when last year, the clear 101 was Bejohn, was a running back. And if your team wasn't close to being able to compete, then it's tough to take on a very time-sensitive asset, like an elite running back. But here, if Caleb Williams hits and he's as good as, draft Bundance think he's going to be, then you're looking at somebody who should be

at minimum a top 12 fantasy quarterback for the next, I don't know, I'll say eight years, but it should be a while that you can rely on him for fantasy production pending him being healthy. It's really tough to pass that up. And that's what you're looking for in your teams regardless at some point in time,

is you want to get to the point where you have those elite quarterbacks on your team to really put yourself over the top. If you already sucked, And he's sitting right there for you. Congratulations. Go get them move along. It's just going to be so tough to find somebody who's willing to give you something of comparable value that doesn't include an elite quarterback.

And it makes it to where it's actually worth your while to move down. Yep. I agree. That's a great point. The 101 is a lot different this year than it was last year. Like you said, there's legitimate reason to move off of a running back on a total rebuild. It's not the same this year.

So I did trade for the 101 in one of my leagues. I had team. My quarterback's just, it sucks. I had Anthony Richardson and I had Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones. It was not a fun year. There's a reason I got, I had the 102 in that league. But I traded Anthony Richardson and Dallas Goddard for the 101, Derek Henry and Braden Cooks. And I felt pretty good about that, being able to add a couple more pieces.

and I was already set at tight end onto that and still get somebody who has really high upside. So I was fine with doing that. Yeah, it's a big difference, right? That's just an automatic vaulting your team into a better standing. We got time for a couple of more, all right? Okay. This question comes from Rich Tree. I thought this offer was interesting, which is why I included it.

The offer I got for 101 in my Superflex. It was Bejohn, Garrett Wilson, and my 25 first rounder for the one a 1 and Devon A-chan. He did not specify what his team looked like, but that is a super steep price price tag for the 1-1. Bejan, Garrett,

and a 25-1 for 101 and A-chan. Yeah, I'm trying to do the quick math on that, but it's a steep trade. I mean, that's too... Yeah, that's, I'm no, I'm on, I'm definitely on the Bejan Garrett side of these proceedings.

Yeah, I remember answering this question in the discord and I said the same thing. So that's a little extreme because we know what Garrett Wilson is. Peripherals phenomenal. And if you look at it from just start of value, we're talking an early second rounder, a late second rounder, and then you're adding a 25 one,

regardless of what you think of the 25 class right now, because we are currently in the process of doing the 25 class sucks terribly, get rid of all your picks. There'll never be anything good to come out of it. It's absolutely fucking trash. We're in that stage of the offseason. I'm not yeeding my 251 into nothing. As of right now,

this is very steep for the 101, even for Caleb. Bejohn, elite asset, going to hold his value for a couple of years. I mean, we saw Breeze Hall hold his value and his knee exploded. So Bejohn is on that list of running backs

that can survive a horrendous injury. God forbid it ever happened. And then we just expect here, it's 251. Like, like, I'm taking, right?

Like, I'm taking the 101. over, I don't know which one of Bijjan and Gary prefer, they're both the same to me. I'm taking the 101 over them by a little bit, and I'm taking the other one over HN by maybe a little bit more, but probably

a similar amount. About 251 is like just a total bonus to me. Yeah, I agree. Yep, I think this is the right way. It's just one of those things, if it feels like too much, it's probably too much and that's a much too much. Especially for me.

Yeah. One of my favorite discord members just strictly because of his name and I love saying it but dilly dilly where would you value the first rookie off the board in a superflex startup back end of the first round question mark and I just want to add this because we obviously know what his ADP is shout out to dynasty datelab.com we finally have an elite ADP resource once again it is powering everything that I am doing so shout out to Dyko very glad you're okay we were a little worried there for a while, but very happy you're back.

The community very much needed you. We know that the 101 is going at the end of the first round still. I have a hard time clicking that pick personally. I think in terms of where I value it, I think it's too high. I know Taylor Williams is dope. I know Marvin Harrison Jr. is dope. But when we're talking about Amundrauss-Stain Brown and Bijan, you can click one of those guys and end up.

clicking the number two pick and still feeling pretty damn good about it, I think it's a little bit too high, but that is where I would put it, right? I think Anthony Richardson is too high. I mean, that's, you're taking a massive leap of faith over a really elite wide receiver in Amundrauss-St. Brown, I think that's a huge leap of faith for three games,

three to four games. So I think it's value too high, but back end of the first round is exactly where I would have it. I would feel more comfortable clicking that pick if it was at 104. So for me, or not Jesus, 204, Jesus Christ.

If it were at the 204 and a startup, I would feel a lot better about where it's positioned. But right now with the 111, the 101 is just, and I've seen it go as early as the 107. It's just value too high for me right now. Yeah, as far as,

I'm pretty much dead on with the market on the 101 and the 102. I'm looking at Dynasty Data Labs ADP. They have those ranked 11 and 15. And in my ranks, I have at 10 and 14. Interesting. I am higher on the 103, which I have at 18.

That's ranked at 25 on privacy data labs. And then I just kind of remain higher. I have 104, 23, 105, 27, 106, 32 versus 31, 35, 42. And then I catch up back with the market around 107 at 52 versus 55. So I'm pretty, I'm like slightly ahead of the market. I actually think on every rookie pick, at least with the first round, which is kind of how I am every year, to be honest. But really where the bigger difference is for me is in the 103 to the 106 range. I'm pretty much even with the 101 and 102.

If I had to guess though, 75% of the people clicking the 102 in Dynasty Data Labs are probably doing that with the intention of taking Marvin Harrison. and I have May ranked there. So I guess I am technically behind the market on Harrison. Yeah, I just, yeah, I just think it's a little high right now. We're already drafting them at their absolute maximum peak. And that for me, in the heart of Brookie fever season, it's just a little too much. I get, I get why it wouldn't be. I just think it's a little, I think it's a little too much.

No, I think that one's good. We have another, we have a question, last question of the night before we get out of here. We'll make it quick. Jimmy Changa, which amazing name. Shout out, more creative, these Discord names get the happier I get as we go through this. But he says, I have the 103, the 110, the 111, the 204, and the 205 in a league. I'm stacked at wide receiver with Leporta and Joku, Schultz, and Musgrave. Shout out Kraft. Craft. Craft is better than Musgrave.

Just want to point that out. I'm trying to come up with a package to maybe get a wide receiver 1 and 2. or an RB1 if anyone has package ideas. Now, I loved this question when I first saw it because we had just discussed this kind of thing on the market report where we talked about what picks I'm more comfortable even trading. What pick would I be comfortable trading Jordan Addison away for? And I said I would easily trade Addison for the 106. Like I wouldn't even think twice about it. I would just smash that.

Sure. Oh, Buckley boy. I disagreed with me, so shout out Buck. But we're a team forever rebuilding on this podcast. But in my opinion, you're already getting a potential wide receiver one at the 103. It's the 110 and the 111 that I am going and asking around to every Stefan Diggs, Devante Adams. I was just going to mention it. I just traded the 111 for Stefan Diggs like three days ago.

Yeah. I've traded the 110 for Devante Adams, a couple of times. a couple of times already. Still trying to get that done with, again, Buck, who's just taking way too long in a league that has no name. So let's get that one worked out. But he just won't do it.

The bastard I'm really, really trying here. But I think there are guys like Keenan Allen that I'm willing to go and check in on. I think guys like D.K. Metcalf, I'm willing to go and check in on with that 110, 11-type. Even if you throw in the 24 and 25, see if you can pry him away. I would be going and looking at the Keenan Allen,

Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans. These are guys that you can, more than likely, go and move these late ones combined with one of these twos or second and 25 and go and get that wide receiver 1-esque production

for periods of time, even if it's not throughout the whole year, you'll feel really good about it. It's going to take a lot for these receivers in the back end of the late one to hit 16 and 17 points per game. Like, let's just be real. So as much as being an A just is nice, right? It still takes a lot for these receivers to hit.

More receivers fail in the NFL than any other position because more of them do get drafted. So it's just the biggest gamble. So if you can go and get yourself some of that even 14 and a half to 16 point per game production for these late, ones, I'm doing that on the team. It seems like your team is already got its building blocks in place. You're just missing a piece or two.

That's what I would be doing. And then as for a potential running back, I just don't think there's a running back on the market that I'm willing to give up that 103, 4 that isn't named Bijon and Brees Hall. So if you can't do that, I would just sit tight, draft yourself a wide receiver at the 103, should one be there for you? and then trade some of these late picks to go and get one of the veteran wide receivers that we mentioned.

They're going to be the hot button targets for myself all year. Is the Adams, the Debo, the Diggs, the Evans, the Cup, the Ridley, Keenan Allen, so on and so forth. If you want even cheaper options, Christian Kirk, still a hilariously undervalued receiver at wide receiver 35, can definitely provide you with 14 to 15 points per game. stretches is, you know, the best receiver under contract in the Jags, Jaggy, wide receiver room. So definitely some, some options there for those late picks, fellows. Yeah. So would you trade the 110 and 111 both for Michael Pittman Jr.? Yes. If you're the Pittman Jr. owner, would you trade him away for both those picks? Well, then, by definition, no.

Yeah. Is that like, is that something that you can get that conversation started? That seems like a reasonable trade. Yeah. Okay. That's what I'm thinking. I'm curious how far up you would go. Like obviously, you know, so much of this is just dependent on what situation those owners are in that you're trying to move up and get one of these elite wide receivers

for what these are or both of these back-end picks. But if you're really trying to go up and make like a splash, I'm trying to go up, get the Michael Pittman Jr.'s. I don't think that you could potentially get a deal done for like Tyreek with both those. ones unless you just see somebody who goes, oh, it's a first round pick. I'm, and it's two of them. Yeah, I'll make a trade then. But I'd be looking to combo both those together instead of using them separately to get one of

the other veteran wide receivers. I don't know. It is right now. It turns out Tyree Kill likes to hang out with Onlyfans models and practices route running. So possibly got him into some trouble. So you might be able to get old Tyree Kill for two firsts. But no, I, yeah. Obviously, in terms of what would you pay for X players, a lot different than what you'll actually get them for.

That's something we try to discuss a lot when people ask us about trades because those two things are very much different. But you should be taking a shot at going and getting Michael Pittman Jr., DJ Moore, Nico Collins, less in on the Devontas Smiths. But, I mean, anytime you can get a Brandon I, you, but I just think you can get cheaper and somewhat similar production in the D.K. Met, calf, Mike Evans, Cooper Cups, Calvin, Calvin, Redley's, etc. For less than these Michael Pittman's DJ Moore's, Devontas Smith, and

Nico Collins. Like the fresh, go get the receivers that have player fatigue. Like, that's kind of the if I were to describe it. Because a lot of guys are just going to be burnt out from the older vets that he just had forever. I want to be a year early type conversations, more likely to be with those older

guys than the guys that are freshly popping off like DJ Moore, Michael Pittman. Like the DJ Moore manager is not letting him out of his cold dead fingers. Because after holding him for so long, he finally blew up. You're not, you're not prying him away. There's no chance. So there's that to put into perspective.

But I would go and ask maybe even the Jalen Waddle manager if he's kind of tapped out at this point. Like I just think that there's some real value that you can go and accrue with those two late ones and even a couple of the players, like the Injoku capitalized off his big year, Musgrave if somebody believes. There's a nonlinear way to go about getting these trades done. Those are just the targets that I would really hammer home.

So also stay away from the Kenneth Walker's and running back types. They look really enticing for those late first, but don't do it. Just go after Aaron Jones, baby, right? Go send that two for Aaron Jones and just live life happier. Stay away from the. walkers all right great show great time i loved being back we almost got out of here at an hour flat we're very close we're going to get back into rhythm next week we are looking at a couple

of guests i won't announce any right now because there's we're working on scheduling but from here out it's guest season scott barrett on the 12th can't wait for that trying to get a date set up with brett whitefield who's deep in the prospect streets lots of fun stuff happening. Look, when it was full tilt, we were always so happy about having the best run of guests in the business. And that's not going to change

under the Fandy's Points banner. In fact, we're just looking at times to it. I mean, let's be real. You know, but hey, that's a story for another day. Look, let's get some final thoughts. Let's get out of here.

Jacob, final thoughts. What you're working on? Let's dip out. Yeah, I've already got my mistakes article up. I think about a week ago. I'll write my successes, this article. I'm up on thinking about thinking probably this week. And then I'm about halfway through my first look at the 2024 running back class.

If I was a more organized writer, I would release them one at a time, but I am not. So I'll probably just release 10 players at once in like a week or two. and then I'm actively in the market for topics. I want to do some like evergreen strategy content like I did last year. And I'll have some ideas percolating. But if anyone has any topics that they want me to cover or questions that they want me to cover, I'm all yours. So absolutely.

Lucas? Right now just in the Dewey Street. Most of the time, you can catch me over on Fulltilt Devi podcast. We don't have a show this week. It will be next week, probably next Wednesday. We've had a bunch of really awesome guests, too. We had, I'm my goodness, Josh Savoyer from Fantasy Points. He was on a show super early in January.

Then we just recently had Brandon Lejeune of Deviate Dynasty on talking about the 2024 class. So we're going to be doing a little bit of looks at those. And we're also doing a giveaway for people who are both registered. or subscribe to fantasy points on their YouTube channel and to full tilt for the year 2024. So go subscribe to full tilt. You get an entry in. And if you go to subscribe to fantasy points or any of the other channels where we've had

guests on, you will get an extra entry into a giveaway for a signed Malachi Nelson, Jersey. Plus, if we get up to over 800 subscribers, then there will be a second giveaway item. I'm keeping that one a secret right now. So I've got some really good things going on, going to keep talking about the 2024 class, going to start looking into some spring practice battles, almost at spring training,

which is also happening, but that's for a different podcast. I think you do one of those, right, Tom? Yes, sir. Yes, absolutely. Look, my final thoughts are generally always the same. Fantasy football is fun. We're getting into one of the most fun times of the year. this is very exciting

be open minded to player evaluation I mean it's almost RAS card season right that's really a fun topic out here on the dynasty streets of course have fun my final thought is this and I just want to quote

one of the best there ever has been Mr. Dr. Disrespect himself it's a long season it might feel like we're at the tippy top of the mountain but we're really only halfway up Remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose and that your best days, they're always spent tilting. Good night, everybody.