Fantasy Football Daily - Dynasty Running Back Buying + Selling Strategies With Rankings Discussions | Dynasty Points

Episode Date: February 13, 2025

Leave a comment and let us know who you're buying! Dynasty fantasy football never sleeps, so you shouldn't either. Running backs can be tricky to buy, but Dynasty Points is going to talk through their RB ranks and top RB strategies for buying. What I Learned Article Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/fantasy-football-takeaways#/ Dynasty Trade Video Here! - https://youtu.be/nkLsM3MJ6bU Sign up here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans Where to find us: http://twitter.com/DynastyPts http://twitter.com/ElNostraThomas http://twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath http://twitter.com/Andy_Buckler FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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The Dignity Memorial brand name is used to identify a network of licensed funeral cremation and cemetery providers owned and operated by affiliates of Service Corporation International. Running backs are the most dangerous asset in Dynasty fantasy football. Should we be buying even the elites at their price? Can we afford it? When do we know when it's time to get in or get out? The Dynasty landscape right now is in shambles. This podcast is powered by the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Dynasty Points is ready to to dive into running backs right now. Running backs,

they are the touchiest topic in fantasy football. Lord knows we need them. We can't really win without them. And sometimes you don't need much, but it's nicer to have than have not because we joke that running backs will be cheaper in season. They're not, or they'll be cheaper in the off season.

They never are. They're never cheap, absolutely never cheap. We're going to set a few examples with this buck. You talked about a great one that I hadn't forgotten about in the Discord when you were saying that you couldn't jokingly buy ETN for 206, even though we've done nothing but been told he's a dead asset. People do not want to let go of running back. So hear a lot about them all being sells,

but if no one's selling, then is that really true? And because it's February, is it actually a good time to, running backs. There's a ton of risk. There's contract issues. There's so many things that go into the most important position in fantasy football. If you have, you're in a great spot. If you don't, but nobody wants to pay. Nobody wants to actually move on them the way their importance should show. So today, Ryan, Andy, this is what we are touching on, a super. important position. What do we have going on today?

Well, we have, should you even buy running backs in February? We're going to touch on that. Are all running backs a sell like the internet will continuously tell you? Our hardest player to rank, because we are going to talk about our RV rankings. There was no Dynasty Points Market Report. So we're kind of combining them this week,

because we're all here anyway. We wanted to talk about running backs. We're going to talk about our ranks. We're going to talk about some disqualification. disparities in our ranks. Who do we feel is not placed correctly, et cetera? And we're going to get out of here. We're going to answer a couple of questions.

We're going to have a great time. Started a little late, had some technical stuff, but we're right back in. So let's dive right in. Ryan, you wrote your, your, what you learned from 2024 article. You can read that at fancypoints.com. I'll drop that in the description after the program. It'll be in the podcast form. if you're listening to this on the next day,

everything shows that we need running backs right now. So my question, as it is framed on the overlay here, is there a good time to buy really? Because it feels like it's always risky. Oh, and you're muted. Look at that. Look at that. Technical issues to hold us back.

I start the show muted. What am I doing today? This is just, it's been a rough night for me. Welcome in, everybody. Yeah. Good to see everybody. Yeah, I appreciate you mentioning the article, Tom, because, yeah, I'm probably going to reference it at a few different points tonight.

Try not to rehash all of it. But yeah, you guys want to go read that. Absolutely go do so. Link in the description. It's my masterclass on the 2024 fantasy season. I think it's a must read before you do any sort of 2025 draft. So, yeah, go check that out. But to get to the question of the hour, which is, does it make sense to buy running

Vex right now in February. What it's important to understand is that right now, kind of any productive asset in Dynasty should theoretically be at its cheapest. And that's not just because dynasty managers are dumb or they're obsessed with draft picks or with young players. It's also because there's a genuine information gap in February compared to in August, right? We don't know how all of these backfields are going to shake out from where we're sitting here in February. Guys can sign in free agency and alter a guy's projection for the upcoming season. Teams can select running backs in the draft. Yeah, we're working with very limited information here.

But because of that, hopefully some running backs will be discounted compared to what you're going to have to pay to acquire them in August or even. even in October when you have the maximum amount of information, both about the running backs in the league and their projections and your own team, right? So yes, if you're buying running backs right now, there's kind of two ways to look at it. You can just play the information game, right? If you think you have an edge on the market in guessing how any of these situations

are going to turn out based on certain teams' motivations, then yeah, then you can go out and make a trade based on that informational take that you might have. So a couple that I have right now, for example, I think that there's a lower chance than the dynasty market does that the giants are going to draft a running back on day one or day two. I think they have a lot of other needs. I think they got a decent amount of production out of Tyrone Tracy and the combination of Devin Singletary last year. yet Tyrone Tracy down in round eight at RB20. We talk about year two running back breakouts all the time. That's not really being priced in for Tracy right now.

And it's because the market is fearful that this is a day three running back with likely little job security. You would expect the team to bring in competition. And maybe they will. But I do think that right now the market is overestimating the danger of that. another example right now, Naji Harris, down in round 11 in startups, RV28. I think there's a way higher chance than the market does that Harris goes and just signs with a starting job and has command of a backfield going, at least going into the draft after free agency runs. I think he's just kind of clearly the best free agent running back on the

market right now. I think NFL circles have higher regards for Najee Harris than maybe fantasy circles do. I think that's also currently creating a bigger discount on Najee Harris based on the information gap than maybe there should be. So those are some ways that you can attack buying running backs in February in ways it could make sense to. But I will just caution that this is kind of analogous to day trading, right it's not so much i super believe in naji harris like as an asset fundamentally that he's an amazing player and that he's going to be incredibly productive it's i just think the market is wrong about something that's going to happen in the near future that will affect his value and maybe after that kind of realizes maybe then i'm looking to move on and i understand that not every dynasty

manager, either A, wants to be that active or B, has a league that's going to facilitate that level of activity to where it's even worth your time trying to do that in February, right? So I think it makes sense to be buying running backs in February. One, if you're identifying situations like that, two, if your league will facilitate you to be able to do that. And three, I think it's important that you have a high value team if you're going to be taking these types of risks. Yes. If you're just like scratching at the bottom of a rebuild right now and you don't have a lot of value to throw around on your team, you don't want like does Najee Harris sign with a good situation to be the thing that makes or breaks your rebuild?

Absolutely. If you have a high value team and you're like, okay, we can play around a. a little bit with like a second round pick here, a flex play here. I'm just kind of taking shots on bets that will asymmetrically help me contend this coming year. That's great. Absolutely do it. But yeah, I think just important to understand that it's a very like specific and dangerous

game that only makes sense if you're, if certain things are true about your league and your team. Right. And I love that you hit on the high value portion. to that because I feel like a lot of people are just inexplicably saying pay any second for ex player like no matter there's never any context to that and it's important to have content like when people in our discord which you can join at fantasy points.com ask us would you to I my first question is often what's the team like like what are we looking at if you're just telling me if somebody just asked should I move like same thing john atlas says nausey versus a random projected second round

rookie running back in this class, I'm going to go, what's your team like? Because if you move that too, can you afford Naji not signing? Can you afford him getting hurt? Can you afford not having the liquid asset afterwards? It can be really tough for your teams. And I know there's one man on this panel specifically that lives, breathes with 10 points per game from his RV2 spot. And a lot of people are afraid of 10 points per game.

But you've always said, you give me 10 points for game for my RV spot. I'm winning championships because it's an underrated spot. So I love what Ryan said about the market mattering, finding the right buys at the right costs. How I know you're constantly, you're already have second round picks burning a hole in your pocket. I've seen you comment in leagues about it already. How are you handling buying running backs in a market like this when it can be so tough? Well, the short answer is should you buy running backs now? The short answer is no.

The long answer is, well, like, it depends. If you want to buy running backs right now, you should be buying running backs in three different ways. One, you buy the top five running backs, the, even like the JT, Brees, maybe not Sequin, Bucky, Irving, buy those guys at high price because we know that they're going to hold. They're going to be first-round redraft picks in a year, and they're going to hold value. So if you want to buy running backs, buy them, if you want to buy dumpster, dive, like I like to dumpster dive with the, with the fourth round running back. So you want to go by sincere McCormick and Adrick Esstime at like, there's,

there were times in past off seasons where we would overrate guys like Adric estimate because we're like, oh, Javante Williams is a free agent, uh, Jill L McLaughlin isn't good. He's a, he's a scat back, you know, maybe estimate, maybe he's the guy and he's like worth a second, but now he's actually nice, like a 20th round startup pick. He's free. You wonder about those guys? That's fine. There's no risk on those.

Those are, I'm always doing that. Those are all players are always buying. The third way is if you want to buy running backs, you should be buying them in the form of buying rookie picks to spend them on running backs. If you're buying projected volume, you want to just buy projected volume in February? Like, I think that's a fool's errand, to be honest.

Especially with middling guys, like, look at a guy like Chuba Hubbard, right? If you tell me nothing happens in free agency, nothing happens in the draft, he is the RB1 workhorse for the Panthers come September. then okay like he should be worth like the 109 right but we don't know that so if you want to be buying him you should be buying him at a discount of instead of the 109 with his market is you should be buying him like the 112 to the 202 if you want to buy guys like that in the middle like the james conners and some of that and just add a shit receiver right add the 14th or 12th receiver on your roster that some devi guy likes right some wide receiver boy is is going to really like them and go and do that add on to i would rather add on to a later pick right then then take the bigger role and then like you said move that one nine I think that's a great point who you're buying is as important as when you're buying yeah and if you want

to buy like the nausees the Travis ETNs like that's my wheelhouse right those are those are the guys I want I want to buy at dynasty data lab price but we're just going to be honest you're not getting that price in a league that's already established and already done you're just not the So, Nogie probably goes around the 209 in the Dynasty Data Lab probably. You're just not sending 210, 209, and getting Naji, that's not happening. So if you want to buy those running backs are the best to buy in the startup. Buying running backs and startups, where is he out? Is it right around the market?

I am looking right now. So Naji on Data Lab is right next to the 205 right now. Yeah. So you're probably just not getting that. They're better off to buy in the startup. it's kind of like how quarterback used to be, right? It used to be, oh, the cheapest time to get a quarterback is in the startup. They're never going to be cheaper than in the startup.

Now that's kind of turned into running backs. People just don't want to come off these running backs, even if they have, you know, a guy like ETIN who gets shit on all over Twitter, gets shit on in every single metric, and he's in the RB30s. I mean, I'm in over 20 leagues. I've sent offers for Travis ETA in over 15 leagues, well above marking on some of them. Some I've sent David and Joku in.

and tight-in premium plus 27 second and a third, the 204. I haven't got a single acceptor or a single counter. And that's for a guy that people just crater and hate. So if you want to buy him, you have to buy him. You have to buy him in the startup at this point. So like I said, if you want to buy running back, should be buying the top five at, you know, you have to be doing this if you have a good team like Ryan said.

Like don't go send two first for, you know, breeze hall or two first for Bucky Irving when like your team's not good or you're not sure. I would say the biggest danger right now is buying projectible volume. So guys like Ramandre, guys like James, James Connor is probably safe. He's 30 years old. He's on, he's in a whole different bucket. Like those are players I want to send seconds for for sure. He's in a different bucket. But like, I would say, I want to say Javante, but he's hell of dead. Achuba, uh, Romandre, even some like Tony Pollard, like those guys. Yes. Probably good, probably good startup buys like Tony Pollard, I've scene. And so I'm in, go, you know, past the 12th round. He went in the 11th and then when we're in.

I tried. He got taken right before me. I was so mad. Yeah, I had the pick there. I picked, I picked James Connor out of, like, those little, like, sea of running backs there. I don't think those should be guys that you should be buying. Like, you should not be buying those guys. Those are in-season buys, right? Because if Tony Pollard escapes the off season, and he goes back to his role that decreased at the end of the season when Tadis experience is completely healthy and they found something in Tadjay Spiris in the passing game. Callahan's still there. The offense should be better because Will Levis won't be operating it. If we get into week one with Tony Pollard in that same role, like he's not going to be worth more in September than he is now. Maybe he'll be harder

to get off of a team, but there's no upside in spending, you know, like 204 or like two seconds to get Tony Pollard or an upside on that. I've sent a 26 second for Tony Pollard in the league already because, like, I'm sick and like he's my every one. And I like that. But for normal leagues and for normal people, I would say, say away from, stay away from buying production. Because if you're only buying production, you're not buying talent, you're only buying volume. And the best thing to say about a player is volume, then that's probably where you, that's where people get lost, that's where people get in trouble. That's where you get Zach Moss on your roster, right?

That's where you get Atlanta Falcons Mike Davis, right? Like that's, we run into this. We ran an ad back with full tilt where we did a, we did a infomercial about why buying projected volume affects tens. of players every year. And it does. It really does. That bugs hard to squash.

I think you're right. Again, and we have a comment here. It says, wow, 109, my league would even pay 209 for Hubbard, even if he was confirmed week one starter. Then Jacob, that means you should be going and buying all these running backs then. Yeah. Because Chuba Hubbard's getting drafted beside the 108. Like he's right.

He's RB 15 right now this month. just in February alone. So that means your league is telling you to please come and buy our running backs. You will have more titles at the end of the day. If like that means you're Jalen Warren. So I took in the late 11th round. Like I think he has a role. Maybe he scores nine to 11 points per game.

My RB2 spot, perfect. We love we love 11 points for game in our RV2 spot. Everyone pictures their rosters being. juggernauts and I need, you know, Jemir Gibbs and Devon A. Chan, I can tell you, I built the league bond running backs and I got dog walked by a team of wide receivers and one good running back this year.

So it's just as fickle a position. And the last thing I'll say that pertains to that, and actually I was talking to someone in the DM today about this is, man, it's February. It's February 11th. Like we don't need to worry about filling a lineup or setting a lineup. Yeah. We have to set a lineup until September.

We have six months to worry about a lineup. Don't worry, especially with your RB2 spot or RVs in general. Don't worry about that right now. Don't worry about you need a flex or you don't have a tight end. You have no needs in February. So don't worry about that. You have a lot of time to fix it. You have a lot of time to get players that will pop up on waiver wire

after rookie drafter players in your rookie draft or random players that just are waiver wires throughout the season, like a guy like Johnny Smith, who I had in every single waiver wire in the offseason. and I dropped them like half of them. That happens at running back too. Kairn Williams two years ago. It's going to happen. Don't worry about that right now

and definitely don't be going like sending seconds for no upside players like a Naji or a pauler just to fill a spot. That's what I think, especially with this much time left in the Opsies. I mean, we just started the Opsies. It's February. We, yeah, literally just started.

Don't, don't buy to buy. Buy because the price tells you to. Check in. That's probably the best advice I can, give for buying running backs is don't buy to just buy buy because the price is making it so you can ignore it

you should be checking in on all these bums check in on them poke around see what's up see if you can see if you can get that discount on a running back because somebody really likes a prospect early and it's early to really flag plant on prospects I don't care who you are it's early

we don't know shit about anything relax so find those guys that want a flag plant and take those picks and are willing to give you that discount price right we used we used to call it the samage api line right wide receivers we would trade away to get that like barely eight points a game we're going to have to find a new player because p ryan's dead now but you don't even need to move just picks there's some shitty wide receiver that somebody really loves uh someone in your league really loves some wide receiver five enough to like tack on a three and give up a running back right now.

Someone out there is willing to give that gift to you. So be creative. And that goes into like the ETN thing. Like I've been like I've talked about winning by ETN so much and how he's like my favorite buy what his price was to be of the off season. I'm buying the price more than I'm buying the player. Yeah. I want him at the price.

I'm buying at his price. I want him at RB 31 because I think he is a talented player that ran in some stuff last year. He should never be this cheap. And if I can get him, R. every 31, like he's, if he says healthy, he's going to outproduce that. I'm buying the price more than I'm buying the player. I'm not buying him to fill a spot. I'm buying him at the price because who knows in September, I know he's going to be,

I know he's going to jump up past that and I can sell him again. So I'm buying the price more than I'm buying the player. Yes, I love that. I love that. That is the best way we could say it. With that being said, I think we're going to take our first break. We're going to roll this into the next bit because we're talking about when you should buy and how you should do it.

But there's another side of this with how the internet treats running backs like an orphan child. Sit tight will be right back. Okay, with it being a conversation about, you know, how do we buy, when do we buy? The next real big question the dynasty community is always asking is, should we just sell all our running backs? You don't want to hold, I hear all the time, you don't want to be holding on a running backs, especially this year. And Ryan, the podcast that's dropping on Friday, you have a great piece about running backs and how they drop off and what we can expect after a year like this and this incoming class and how much lifting it has to do with the 2017 class potentially starting to phase out.

And the last couple of classes being actual ass, right? This is a big year for the don't hold a single running back crowd. Oh, there's only two running backs on the board that I want to hold. Bejohn and Gibbs, everyone else is injury prone or too old or the rookies, the rookies, the rookies. Does that mean are all running backs to sell and how do you know when it is time? Yeah. So running backs, I'm going to start by talking from just a very general, like almost redraft perspective. And then I'm going to translate this to dynasty.

So if you're picking a running back in redraft, you are making just a calculated bet that is increasing your risk, but also increasing your upside, right? The running back position in pretty much any fantasy football format is just all about risk tolerance. I lay this out in my Key Takeaways article, again, linked in the description for more detail. you can go back and just look at the numbers for this. Every running back you draft is going to decrease your median projection, your median expectation, but it's going to increase your upside, your potential for your team to absolutely smash or for that player to absolutely smash. Right.

And in Dynasty, this kind of risk-reward trade-off is really compounded because there's even more risk to a running back in Dynasty than in redraft, right? they have the shortest careers of any position. They can just completely crash in value much faster. Running backs are more situation sensitive than any other position because a running back situation can literally be either he's starting and he's scoring fantasy points or, oh, he's the RB2 and he's not on the field and he's not scoring fantasy points, right? And that is much less connected to his talent or like with a wide receiver, you have the

ability to earn targets. there's three of them on the field. The good ones will probably win out. Not always a case with running back, right? You can have a rookie come in or a rookie come into an RB2 situation, right, behind an incumbent starter. And we never get to see them score fantasy points that happened a couple of times with this last year's rookie class, right? So you should always be viewing a running back on your dynasty roster as this is a risk I'm taking. But the risk is paying some dividends, some reward, hopefully, in the season when they're

scoring fantasy points because running backs generally are better at scoring a ton of fantasy points over any other position, right? So that should just always be the thing you're balancing. Can my team take on a lot of risk right now? Again, if you're rebuilding, there's very little reason for your team to take on any any term, any sort of risk for a short term reward for a in this same season reward, right? You shouldn't care about your 2025 projection if you know that you're rebuilding right now. Don't take on the risk at all.

But if you're a team that is trying to move from I'm a rebuilder to I'm a contender, then yes, then you do probably have to take risks at some point. As Buck has talked about, I think probably the best way to do that is generally by buying like that top five tier of running back. Right now I'm just buying Devon HN. That's kind of the easy way out for me right now in this dilemma. But yeah, I guess the last thing I want to say is when you're considering this is that also there are a lot of leagues like the ones that we play in that are just full of wide receiver bros and everyone is just hyper aware of all of the risk of a running back. Right. And at some point, like someone in the chat mentioned earlier, I can't get the two

209 for Tube Hubbard, yeah, at that point, that risk is just thoroughly being priced out, right? It's like, okay, everyone recognizes this. You may as well do it at that point because you're not, you're not having to pay nearly enough. All of that production is being discounted because of the risk that everyone is so afraid of. But I think in most people's leagues, that's not the case. And also just because, you know, we have to make content, we have to be on the show and hopefully talk about everybody's leagues. When I, any time on this show, I'm saying like running back X is a sell, I'm just going

to try to do it in terms of in comparison to other running backs. Yes. So James Cook right now is probably my favorite example. I think is super easy to tear down to someone like a Ken Walker who's going around and a half later in startups. And you may not actually get that deal done in a league. fully understand that that doesn't always translate over perfectly. But based on the trades we see in leagues, the where they're ranked in startups, yeah, I think

James Cook is a sell like within the context of a running back. But yeah, I think it's important not to lose sight because really that's what the question that is asking is running backs as an asset class. Are they all sells? Yes, if you, if your team shouldn't be taking any risk, if you're not going to benefit, from the reward, then yes, they're all cells. I like that. I like to say the same thing.

All players are buys and all players are sales all the time. You have to be completely fluid. And that can really confuse people. That can really twist some things. But I truly mean that. I like what you said. How do you know when it's time? Your team is going to dictate when it's time.

Did you finish fifth or eighth and max points four? Great. Get rid of the running back on your roster. It's time to retool, buddy, right? Were you, did you come in second, but were somehow 11th in max points four? Do you need to gain assets? It's time to move those running. Are you third, but you were first in max points four, and you have the opportunity to pick up at Chuba Hubbard for 112?

Yeah, right? Like, you can, you can do these things. Did you pick up 11, right? If you finish second, you have 111 and someone's out there floating a, you know, a James Cook or a Ken Walker and you can get a little snack on top because you told them, well, this is kind of where they're going right now in ADP, you know, let's add a snack. There are ways to do it. That's how you know.

Your team is going to dictate more often than not if it's time to sell the running backs. A lot of people are like, well, Sequin Barclay is a definite hold. Not necessarily. what if you what if you won your title and the rest of your team is falling apart you could be sitting there with a with a a a derrick car is your qb2 or maybe you rolled out like a rogers i don't know keiler combo like some of us did and this year and had to start huntley and then all of a sudden you've got this workhorse running back because all you have is some like 28 year old wide receivers and you don't know how you made it.

I'm looking to move that elite asset now. You've got your title. You won. Great. Reset now. Right. Like it can be, it's not cut and dry like this player X is a for sure hold.

But again, your team and then secondly before I pass this off to Buck, your league will tell you. Right? Like we talked about, well, in this is why we always say not in my league. right like if you find yourself saying not in my league for every point then this podcast it's probably

not for you because your league is ascended to a level in which that we will never be able to comprehend and for that i tip my cap but in a general manner your league is going to tell you who's actually a cell if you get an offer for a player and you're like i would if you have to risk breaking your phone for hitting except too far then your league just told you or too fast I should say, then your league just told you when it was time to sell the running back. It shouldn't be age, right? No one got more shit for the age curve stuff than Ryan did this year. And you said yourself that you're going to go back and relook at it because we have to update process and opinions and values.

Age shouldn't dictate it. Situation shouldn't dictate it. Again, your roster and your league will tell you when it is time to get out. Because if you just go on Twitter and all the Twitter says sell this player, because Tank Bigsby is going to take over guaranteed, and then he doesn't. If you do it that way, you're going to run into more problems than not, in my opinion.

Listen to your league. Listen to your roster. Buck? Yeah, so I think, like, are all running backs and so I think five years ago, or maybe even less, three years ago, like the answer was yes, right? Offseason hit. It's February.

Yes. But now there's too much information out, and players have been starting, fantasy players in general just have too much information. they have too many things to look at and they're way smarter than they were three years ago. Your average fantasy player has way more common sense than they did three years ago. It's just a fact. So the players that should be obvious cells that you would want to sell, Derek Henry, Sequin, Christian McCaffrey to a lesser extent, those guys, everyone who you want to sell them to knows why you want to sell them.

So it's going to be, it's going to cost, you're not going to get as much. you're going to get the second for Derek Henry when you might as well just hold him. So what's up? You know how many times? Every time I look through the 50-some leagues and a player scores a touchdown and immediately the Rebuilder, it puts them on the block with like the winky emoji face on sleeper. We all know, bro. We know why you're silly.

He's still the same dude. I just, when you say that, it just gives me flashbacks and nightmares of every time someone scores two touchdowns and they put them on the block twice. They're like, is this what I'm supposed to do? Just checking. Come get them. Enough. Enough with that. It just gave me flashbacks to like week seven.

I'm gutted. I thought you were going to say every time you go through sleeper and you look for like a shitty running back, you see them on my team. Well, they are all on your team for sure. Absolutely. But yes, I would say, I would just. say no, they're not all sales because people know why you're selling them. And you would have, if you have to sell at market, like you have to sell Derek Henry at market and you have to sell them for a second, then no. And this also goes into the fact of we're going to have teams now where

it's, oh, my team sucks. I'm rebuilding. I need to sell every single player I have for every single pick I can get. And I want to shed the roster to no players. And I'll take the 211 and the 303 for Derek Henry because he's old, my team's bad, and I'm going to have no players, and I'm just going to have all these picks and a bad class, and I'm going to be good in three years. That's really dumb, and just in general, it's just like, that's dumb. And it's also really dumb to do now because Derek Henry and guys like that have the most value in season. So if you're one of those guys that want to sell every single player for a second, and all you can get is just like a pure second, which is market value for some of these guys like we talked about, then no.

they're not but like yeah sort of but if you have to sell them to where if like probably two years ago and i mean like jump around but two years ago derrick henry people i was just going to bring this up right you can you can get a first and a second for derrick henry in the off season two years ago no doubt from somebody now people look at you you put derrick henry on the block they'd be like he's fat as hell he's 30 years old no like like no i'm not giving you a first for him it's just how it is people are and then what's the reply what's the reply but he had almost 2,000 yards this year. He was the top three running back, bro.

I need to at least get that investment back. No, for sure. I would say, so in that case, no, they're not sales unless you can get above market. If not, hold them to the season. They'll be starters and you'll get something from a contender in season. I'll say the running backs I believe are the biggest sales. Like my biggest sell at running back right now, believe it is a weird one, is Zach Charbonnet. He's ranked as the RB20.

right he's the rb 20 and i honestly can't figure out why why he's even that no i just can't because first of all he's he's he's better than kenneth walker when when he got the workload he he popped off he's an rb one he what he did uh he was my go i'm not gonna lie but he is he's a clear rb two and every single time ken walker comes back even off of an injury they go right back to the go right back to the uh the asback uh zach charbonnet gator on the sideline. They go right back to that offense. But I would say, why do we have Zach Charbonate Buell? Why? Because I was ready for someone to talk about Charbonnet. That's how prepared I am as a podcast producer. I knew someone was bringing

them up today. Because we're talking running backs and Buck can't not talk about Charbonnet. That's, oh yeah, Carbony. That definitely threw me off. But so with him, because I was just going through his price. I was just looking at a key chair cut in Dynes Data Lab because I drafted James Connor ahead of him in a startup. And I was like, man, like, why is he ranked RB20? He's ranked RB20 like everywhere. And I couldn't figure out. And I think they're probably the most dangerous assets because the biggest market difference from three years ago in the NFL and some dynasty in general is that running back has become super neglected in the NFL by teams and they know that. So they'll like, they'll be like, yeah, sure, I'll just sign my starting running

back back for two years, 10 million. Like, who cares? Might as well. Used to be back in the day. Ken Walker hits for agency. Some shit team gives him $40 million and he leaves and then the incumbent backup becomes a starter to Seahawks. That's dead now. Like, honestly, that's dead now. We've done this a million times where we've been trying to buy the backup that becomes the starter because he's the clear backup and he has talent and he's young and they're going to let him this guy walking for agency. And then Charbonnet comes in at 90% of the workload. Tagee Spears is going to be the starter, send any first for him because Derek Henry left, then they just go sign Tony Pollard in Fragency, and then he automatically loses half of his value.

Alex Madison. Yeah. Those type of, Tray Benson to a lesser extent, but he was a rookie, but those type of players, the, oh, they're going to take over. Like with Charbonnet, his best argument for the reason he'd be ranked, RB20 is, they'll let Kenneth Walker go in a year. He's the running back in 2026. First of all, they're probably just not going to let Kenneth Walker go because he's often

injured the team likes them a lot the running back contracts is aren't shit anymore so they'll just sign up for three years 18 million with 12 million guaranteed and he'll just stay or if they did let him go they can also just replace charbonnet he wasn't even drafted by that regime you have a whole year we would we made a whole year until 2026 for charbonnet to be to be the starter and we need all these like things to line up for that to happen they need to let go with kenneth walker they need to then he then he needs to go through a whole off season a whole draft to get to this rb20 price So I would say he's the biggest sell right now, guys like that. Trey Benson is more of a buy because he's fell a lot.

Like I'd rather have Trey Benson than Charbon A, and that's not how the ranks are. Because I think he at least has probably has a better chance for that to happen. He's behind a guy who's 30 years old and always hurt, has never finished the season. So that, I think those guys are definite cells right now, guys like him. Yeah. No, I'm definitely with you. I think there's something to be said kind of for the RB2 where, Jacob and I have talked about this on the show some, where the RB2s like Charbonnet,

they're not expected to do anything for them to hold value, but you're right that it kind of going back to my day trading analogy from earlier, you are day trading if you're holding a Zach Charbonnet or a trade Benson or a Blake Corum, right? Because you're just trading off of the information rather than is this player fundamentally a good asset that I think is is going to get on the field and score fantasy points, right? It's entirely speculative of will the team's decisions work out in such a way that this guy can return value. So, yeah, I think you're, yes, this is the worst time of a year to hold those guys, actually,

because this is the time of year that things shake up the most on depth charts from the, from free agency to the draft. In season, if you want to hold those guys, I think that makes a lot more sound. but yeah, I am with you. And I'm not necessarily saying like that the Seahawks are going to draft Charbonnet's replacement this year. Although maybe they would. That would be a very funny day on Twitter for me.

But in general, as an asset class, yeah, I agree with you that those are kind of the toughest holds right now, like where it's just purely I, they have value because we think that this could be their role eventually if teams make certain decisions. I would say with him is he's just so much more experienced. than other backups with the same upside with like you can make similar bets that a lot cheaper costs and Charbonnet does fall a little in startups but he's like the RB 20 like he's ranked as a top 24 RB when there's Blake Corums there's Trey Benson's there's this other like even like a Marchion Lloyd there's other guys my guy is finally the year only 22 years old

Kendrae Miller still he's never he's never playing more than two games in a year so so So the lead RV2 in New Orleans, new coach, Dennis Allen's gone, young prospect, kind of a demon. Same body. That's the problem. I will say if you want to make like the informational bets like that, do it. Yes, do it on the guys that are way cheaper that have the same upside if they do get on the field. So like Isaac Rendo is one of my favorite examples currently. You can get him for like a third round pick right now.

He actually looked good when he was on the field. there's a decent chance that he just rolls into the season as the RB2 there and then he's like the same asset as Zach Charbonnet essentially through the season that you get to hold so yeah that's right look instead all those premium backups like we got a jacob sang joliel mclaughlin all that stuff no i'm good i'm just good like i those guys those are the those are the clear fades for me when twitter like when mclaughlin got bumped up i took estimate if estimate got bumped up, I'd take the next guy. Right? Those, those, if we, I, I kind of always laid out like this. Anytime I need to draw a map, a roadmap for a player's success. He's got to go around the bend, through the dark caves, into the force, come out the other side unscathed to maybe possibly get 60% of the role that we hope he gets. I'm, I'm good.

I'm good. the mistackles forced are sexy sure mistackles forced are great the problem is if you don't get the ball enough to do it it doesn't matter right volume is king at running it just is what it is you're either an elite pass catcher your role is so good it's undeniable or you get a ton of volume like that we know this now so these guys that could maybe hopefully what javanti got hurt and we were like jaleel jaleel's going to step in 20 points and did nothing, really? And there's opportunity for no reason. Tyler Badegh got some run. We got Estime, had some games, and then got benched. It just none of what the running back rotations do make any sense ever. So you're right.

Those are typically guys I want to get out of. Algier is still good. He's a good player, right? If he got to start somewhere, he would be like his rookie year. He does his job. I don't think he's a good running back, but he does this thing. not someone I'm super invested in unless he's free. Free is the name of the game with guys like that.

For sure. Let's take our next break. We're going to talk about our ranks. I think we hit these two topics pretty in depth. We've got a pretty short topic to come up with here before we finish this thing off with some rank disparities, some things we disagreed on in our ranks. We're going to touch on the questions that we haven't answered

as many of them as we can anyway before we run out of time. tonight so you're going to want to stick with us. We have a lot of show left to go. Don't go anywhere. Okay, so sitting here doing the rankings, it wasn't like easy for me. This is the last rankings we're going to do before the rookies come into play here. We're going to start adding them in to that we usually do in middle of February, towards the end of February as we lead into March.

I've gotten a lot of questions about that. So that's generally where it is. We need a little more information. that's really what it comes down to. People ask, why don't we have the ranks? Why don't we have the rookies? Because we need information. It would be, to me,

irresponsible for me to put, I don't know, Hampton in there and be like, oh, I would take him right now over insert, you know, if I'm looking, oh, I really like him. I want him over Alvin Camaro right now. One, we don't know what his pick ADP is going to be. We have no idea. We don't have any information about them at all.

And then you're just letting perennial back end RB1, Alvin Camero, to me, it's irresponsible. So I like to have as much information I can before I start telling people who to pick over player one or player two. It's why my dynasty tier sheet has not been fully updated yet. It's very hard without as much information as possible because I would be lying to subscribers. I would be lying to listeners thinking that I know something that I don't. I'm very much about the board and about value and market. I don't know the market for these guys right now because there isn't one. So quick answer.

Just to jump in even further on that, I think an even bigger thing is nobody is buying or selling O'Marion Hampton right now. You're buying or selling the 109. That's not actually how this works. I know that there's like a temptation this time of year to if you have a pick to like envision the player like that. Don't that doesn't exist. Don't do that. It's not it's not what's actually happening. You're fooling yourself and you're creating license for you to make bad decisions because of a player take where, yeah, as Tom said, we don't have barely any of the important information about most of these players as fantasy assets.

People that tell you they do are lying to you. They, they, they, they, all respect to the hustle of content creating, that to me is like, one of the biggest flaws in content creating is when they say, you know, I know and you don't. Right. They, it, it, you have no idea right now because we have, what information are you telling me you have? None. So that's, that's why I'm kind of a little, I attack the picks more than I attack the players for ranks. That's why we wait a little longer for the.

ranks. I actually have a story about doing that. Ryan, I had this team. All it needed was some wide receivers. I had everything else. Had the quarterbacks. I had the running backs. I built it. It was ready to go. It was a bottom feeder for two years. Buck always makes fun of me for it. And I thought I had the 102 and I had the 104. And I was like, I'm getting neighbors. I'm getting Marv. This is locked in. Like there's no way this is going to backfire on me. guy whose QB1 was like Tannahill took Marf 101 and I just had I had to take Caleb and the next guy I took neighbors and I was like great he has no freaking quarterback either awesome and I got Bowers it's like oh no I got Brock Bowers and I traded Caleb for Jamar Chase oh no right wo is me but when you start locking in a rebuild and like I'm getting this player at this pick you don't know shit we don't know. You don't know what the players you're playing with are going to do.

Oh, I know Genty's going to be there at 102. Should I buy it? The guy at 101 once that he's taking quarterback. Is he? Because he told you in February? Don't trust any. Lie!

Not only, exactly. Yeah. Not only could he change his mind. He's incentivized to lie to you. Yeah. That used to be one of my favorite things when I had more time to, like, mess with league mates. It's just,

just like, completely disinformation petal. about my intentions during a rookie draft or leading up to a rookie draft. Like I don't have the time to sit there and do that now. It's very funny. Is there an edge to it? Maybe I will say it's a lot of fun. Yeah, I joke all the time. I'm very pro cheating, right?

Like I think teams should steal signs. I think Royd should be reintroduced to baseball. I think teams should film practices. Cheat deflate footballs. I don't care. Do what you have to do. I do not care. And yeah, lie.

Lie to your league mates all the time. Lie. Yeah, I think I'm taking this player here and just completely swap. Absolutely. You have to try to win, get an advantage. Why? What are they going to do? Be that mad about it?

I don't know. Got duped. Don't trust me. What can I say? Snake in the grass, if you would. Daniel says Seahawks, Trade Walker, move up to grab Warren and indeed draft a running back RB 2. The Seahawks didn't draft RBs round 2.

Pete Carroll did. The idea that the running backs just, draft running backs. No, Pete Carroll. That was, that's his regime. That was his group. Watched for the Raiders to draft back to back round two RBs, right? That's, that's who we should be worrying about. Your sincere McCormick's are going to die.

I'm just telling you now. Oh, no. I know, my name. Your 78% roster ship is going to suffer because they're going to draft two second round running backs or have some Chris, Chris Carson, round six beast. Anyway, as we get... Since I'm at Macormickbeta. Accidentally went into a little aside there,

which considering there's only been one, and I haven't even talked about the MVP, I think I've done pretty good. That being said, who's the hardest player for you to rank, Ryan? Yeah, so I would almost interpret this more as like the player I'm looking at my ranks now, and I'm like, oh, I probably wasn't fully thinking this through. So I guess that makes it hard if I feel like I made a bad.

decision, right? I think Isaiah Pacheco, I had him just barely still inside my top 20. I don't think there's a lot of reason for that at this point. Like, it's definitely a hard situation to kind of parse, right? Comes into the season, I should say, comes out of 2023, just operating as a bell cow, right? Comes into the season for the first game and a half in 2024 doing pretty much the same thing operating as an every down bell cow getting all the goal line work being used in the passing game has the injury that comes back like really late for the chief super bowl run which is like generally when guys are doing that they're nowhere near a hundred percent physically i would not like hold isaiah pacheco's tape against him from

weeks 15 onward right i'm just assuming the guy's not healthy at all. Him splitting work relatively evenly with Wash Karim Hunt would suggest that Pacheco is not himself. But it also brings up the question, is he ever going to be himself, right? This was a running back where his defining kind of trait and what made him work in the league was his speed. Fourth year in his career after a major lower body injury, is he going to continue to have that, I'm not entirely sure. Also, the Chief's offense changed significantly this year. They at some point kind of decided, and you, whether this was because it was Karim Hunt that they had to hand the ball to or not, they kind of remembered, oh yeah, we have Patrick Mahomes.

We can just not have a running game and we can just use the short passing game. We can do all this like funky stuff to Xavier Worthy or Mikul Hardman or whoever is available and just use the short past game as the run game. Do they continue to do that into 2025? I would think most likely, especially as their receivers are getting healthier and they have more of a full receiver core. So I think Pacheco is, it's tough because there's also the world where he just walks into 2025 as if it were 2024 and he's getting a top 12 workload on one of the best offenses in the league. So there's like quite a range here of possible worlds that are literally from like he's completely cooked as a player and it's just dead to like, oh, he's scoring as a fringe RB1 this

year. So yeah, I think ultimately that's probably going to land him somewhere around like the Tony Pollard, Naji Harris range for me. So I'm going to get him down probably like fringe top 25 which is still going to make me notably higher than anybody else here. But yeah, I think he's kind of the toughest one for me to think about and parse through. Yeah, I think that's fair. He's, he's definitely a tough, tough click. Buck, who is your hardest person to rank? Am I cheating if I kind of have three?

There are different groups. Oh, God. Yeah, I'll skip one. No, no, hit him. Let's go. Well, the first one was Sequin, even though I talked about him two podcasts ago. He's consensus as RB4. I think I haven't met RB5.

Just really hard to put it. I don't know. It's almost like you have to put him on merit because there's not enough players to put over him. So I don't feel good about that. I know, like, we talked about that extensive two episodes ago, so I won't go too far on that.

My other two were, first one I'll say is Joe Mixon because I put him, I think, at RB16, right? And I have him behind all the other old running backs in that range like Derek Henry, Christian McCaffrey, And almost we can make the argument that he should just be ahead of those guys because of what he did last season when he played. He had almost 100 yards every single game, average 20 points for game, has a contract, probably state, like nothing probably really changes in that backfield.

They do have a new O.C now, which we would expect them to go at least a little more past happy than they were before. They were at least past happy teams in the league. But if we just do a projectable like point vault, like from points, there's really no. reason to say outside of like merit that he wouldn't just outscore Christian McCaffrey or Derek Henry next season if everything is considered what's going on? Are you laughing at me? No, no, no, no, no. I don't know. I was like, no. But anyway. Yeah, so I think almost he should like be over Christian McCaffrey and over Derek Henry, but it almost like feels wrong to do it. He'll be 29 years old to start the season. And then my last one is Brian Robinson, who I think is probably

in the tier of like Jack Charbonnet where he might be at the biggest risk of a running back that has some type of value and some type of name to get absolutely nuked in the draft. I would say he has one of the bigger chances and he's valued at like an early second, which I wouldn't pay right now.

Like I think we talked about Chuba, right? Like we need some type of leeway if we're buying a player like that. If we're buying Brian Robinson market value early second, you should be trying to buy him at, you know, mid to late second, two oh six to two 10 range. Because I think there's a real good chance that he gets nuked. And he's like we talked about as any our running back sells.

He might be someone who you should just get off your roster before the draft because one, I think it's a really good chance he gets replaced. Two, he's probably never getting the past catching role in that offense. And he doesn't have much upside. Like if it's almost like what do you win when you win? If you lose Brian Robinson, like you lose like a fine 10 point RB2, that's it, which I need. But if you, but you don't get like much. Like you can always get a player like him back.

So you're going to lose more by keeping Hein and Russia and just selling him. So I would say as I cheated with Sequin, Joe makes it, the Brown Robinson, but all for different reasons. I think they're all three different tiers of players. I think all those are fair. They can be really tough when you get those. I mean, Brian Robbins was still made pretty much a. relevant by Austin Echler last year. Like when Echler played, he was more explosive.

He was more productive generally. He caught the passes. It was, it was interesting. The same thing happened to Brian Robinson, Jr. that we were dreading is that the rushing quarterback kept rushing touchdowns in, and it nukes players like that.

Yes, rushing quarterbacks are great for running back. Bad for running back rushing touchdowns. Often, I'll say. Look at how many, look, sometimes it's system. Kenny Pickett was out there, vulturing one-yard touchdowns from Sequin when hurts and that with a concussion.

So sometimes it's just the team. But you're absolutely right. It can be dangerous. For me, it was second year running backs, all of them. We had a question in the chat. How do we feel about it?

Do any we like that didn't get any run? He's like, yeah, I want to buy Marshawn Lloyd. He could just get replaced. The one, though, that I think is probably the safest, but I still had a hard time of them. It's Jalen Wright. just simply because he fits what Miami wants to do, obviously, which is go one direction as fast as possible.

And they have their other guy now. Most are, I don't think, is going to be around again, which everyone said last year, but the dude scored an obscene amount of touchdowns. This year, his body did actually break down, but maybe there's just a loyalty thing there, and they bring him back on a one-year deal or something like that, and Jeff Wilson.

So for me it was all these second year guys Like Trey Benson I have at 22 and I was like man I wouldn't click him there So then I was like How do I rank him there? And it's like well age and then But then I was kind of like fighting myself on it

Benson was tough Lloyd was tough Jonathan Brooks is like dead Like I have him at 20 But as soon as these rookies come in These are the guys getting lapped by these guys and it's tough. I'm going to change my rank

because I see I have Montgomery only one spot ahead. I think as much as I take a dime dump on Dandre Swift all the time on this podcast, I think I'd rather him over Brooks. E.TN is going to probably

like, nausey, Paulers. I think I had a hard time ranking these guys because I had a hard time not having content brain. But when it came to brass tacks and pushed came to shove, I did not click these guys at the rank that I had them at.

And that's to me what signals they were the hardest player to rank. And that's what tells me right now that I have to go in and redo this because I was a fraud. And I call people out for being a fraud when they don't click players. I make fun to Jacob for this all the time. We had an all-time argument about Javante Williams on this podcast live when I caught him slipping. and I'm catching myself slipping more and more on this, just simply because the second-year running backs like Ryan, you touched on earlier,

are generally a smash, breakouts. The opportunity's not there for any of them. Marshawn Lloyd's going to take the Aaron Jones role. No, he's not. Josh Jacobs is just the guy. Oh, they don't want to run one bat. Yeah, they do. His name's Josh Jacobs.

Oh, boy, was I wrong on that? Jalen Wright's going to find his way onto the field. He's just too fast. he's got to get behind he's got to get through rehemosa oh raeimosa went down let me introduce you to jeff wilson right it sucks oh benson i i was talking about the nut landing spot for benson in arizona because connor no way guess what new contract oh and by the way he's indestructible he's like cockroaches or a twinkie the only thing left that'll survive a nuclear blast is james connor and 18 points per game it just it's just going to happen until he's not in the

league it feels like. Right? And then Brooks breaks his shit again. It sucks. But then Chuba gets a new contract and he's Christian McCaffrey.

I don't... The second year backs are the hardest. It was easy last year with Chase Brown. Easy. He was just such an easy click last year.

Second year back, explosive, had legitimate opportunity. Only had to beat out Zach Moss. That was just like the easiest argument for me to make and I made it all off season. I can't find one with these year two back. There's not one that I'm like, that's the guy. If there is one, it would be right just simply because I don't know if they find

another guy that runs four, three at the running back position this year that McDaniel could like, I'm going to take that guy next. I don't know, man. The second year backs, I had the hardest time ranking because I think they should all be dead. I think they're all dead. I didn't have the balls to do it, but I think I will when we get off of here and I can take another. Just sell them all for Rashad White, the ultimate contingency scam and all of fantasy football and the best value at running back, because he's still produced as the backup, and I think it will still stay.

You can probably get Rashad White for Jalen Wright and an early third. Marshall Lloyd's like pretty dead. I'm sure you can trade trade Benson for Rashad White and like a two. So any of those is, I think moving off to Rashad White, he's ugly now everyone doesn't like him because oh he's terrible bucky's a new hotness still has a legitimate role and if he goes down i mean that's a projectable weekly like if he went down before this season if bucky irving went down before the season in a redraft league people are taking richard white in the running back down like round three yeah he's like the best contingency back right now i think jalen wright to a lesser extent too is like a good contingency guy but he also is like you said a guy could just completely get replaced yeah probably feel really confident that rashad white goes into the season and in as definitely clear every two and probably just as like the 1B. So I think he's probably if you move off of those guys for him, I think is a good idea. Yeah, even Corum goes into here.

Well, Corum's the guy. I was the low guy on Corum. Everyone, it felt like at the site was he's taking Kyran. No, he's not. Like these good running backs just don't have their job taken. Like, they just don't. We can want them to. Oh, he's better.

It doesn't matter. It does not matter. So, yeah, the second year backs are really. really hard on me to rank. It was almost impossible. I felt guilty because again, I ranked them and then we jumped in that startup. And every time I go look at my ranks and I was like,

oh, I'm not doing it. And I just clicked something. I took a random, I took like the 207 before I took all the Bensons and the whatever. So they're like how do you rank that? But then I couldn't in my mind go, well, Brashad White over Jonathan.

I couldn't, I couldn't get there. I was up at night staring at my ceiling. Because I just couldn't get the. get the thought of this out of my head. It was it was taxing on me emotionally and mentally, but I did it for the people. And I was wrong.

So I'm going to go back in and do all of that all over again, again for the people. I think quick break, we come back when we talk to some discrepancies, answer some questions to get out of here and not make this thing two hours because I'm on a mission to keep these a little shorter. And we've been doing pretty good on that.

So sit tight. Last break, we're going to talk about some players that we think are a little all over the, place and maybe a little bit out of place. Sit tight, not going to want to miss this next bit. Snap up Ancestry DNA's lowest price ever in our incredible cyber sale. With 50% off ancestry DNA kits, it's the perfect time to help a loved one unwrap the past. And with our latest update, they'll discover their family origins like never before with even more precise regions

and new and exclusive features. Their best gift, our lowest price. 50% off ancestry DNA, only until December 2nd. Visit Ancestry.ca for more details. Terms apply. Okay, there are a couple of players. I know at least one for sure I have questions about and I'm sure you guys do as well. So this is how we're going to do it. We are not going to count down our top 12s and 24s. You go to fancypoints.com. All the rankings are up on there. We can post them in the Discord chat. Buck, I can get you to do that, post all of our ranks in there if people want them. There's a a couple of players that I have like questions about like I am the high man on kairn williams on the website which I didn't see coming at I have him at rb6 I might swap him

and jonathan taylor I'm kind of on the fence about that one right now but buck you have him at 10 like Ryan you have him at 7 I am hard pressed to think of 10 running backs that are either in a better role have more leeway and a better offense than kairn williams who's also still pretty young and they might give like a okay contract not a Todd Gurley has contract lord knows but again the same contract right you laid out for a guy like Barclay I can absolutely see the rams handing out that contract to a guy like Kyran who is their offense anytime they run the football so why RB 10 yeah so with Kyron I don't want to like we keep doing the he'll get replacing and he doesn't I would say it's it's still looming

but not just that. The Rams look like they're having a shift right now, right? Where Matthew Stafford, possible Giants quarterback, they're letting Cooper. He's going to go anywhere. They're letting Cooper Cup go. We know that. There could just be a shift in the team,

and they just easily can draft someone, and I don't fully believe Kyron is, like, a great player. I think he's really good in his role. I think he's liked. We can't forget all the injury stuff with him, but it's a running back. So, I mean, all these guys have injuries. I would say I'm probably, you know, a little low for sure because I have a guy like

Kenneth Walker over him, which is definitely not consensus. And I don't even like they're, you know, over like a whole round apart. And I also have Jim Cook over him, which I think is probably not consensus as well. But I just think those guys are, you know, the better talents with a better projectable offense that they're in that I can like make excuses to, I feel really confident that James Cook goes into the season next year as a starter. He showed me he could score touchdowns and he could also be good when he doesn't get that role. I know like Ryan has some issues with him, like some concerns, which I think are fair, but I don't see any reason why they

don't go away from him, especially because he was their best player in the playoffs. And then Kenneth Walker, I mean, we haven't yet to see him like if he was able to hold that role without getting hurt, which is a big if game that he had last year, because when we did that mid-send, season startup in like week six he was the rb three and dynasty and people were comfortable taking him there if he held that role all the way because i remember it was like oh he's projected like he could be rb one rest of the season like he's he's he's a protective rb one rest of season with his volume and everything and he didn't keep it because he got hurt and then the offensive line is absolutely cratered and they couldn't they just couldn't run the ball and they had to go to the the jsn offense and

that was what it was if he gets that role and he holds it like i think he'd be a top five running back in fantasy and we can argue that Kiron Williams did hold that and he has that role. But I just worry about like not necessarily a scheme change, but I do worry about added competition with him and the injury stuff. And just with if the Rams

decide to go, you know, a different way with their, with their team with like the Stafford Rumors and the Cup, well, not Cup rumors. Seems like that's definitely happening. But with that, I just I definitely worry about that because I know the Rams are like, they like the shiny new thing and like they can go

draft like early second one of my running back they do stuff like that all the time so i worry about that but that would be my biggest concern so if not yeah i would agree that he should be you know ranked higher see for me it just comes like ryan you have him at seven so you're you feel closer to my outlook on this than than buck does you were talking about how every running back basically is they are in one-year contract mode and out of these guys that are in kind of one-year contract mode he's 24 buck wins his birthday i don't know that one but I do know. Because he's not a wide receiver?

Yeah, I don't know. The runnerbacks. That's fair. When's Pooka Nakua's birthday? Oh, I don't know that one. Is it April? Oh, we busted him. He's not on the game tonight.

Yeah, he doesn't know like the late round undrafted guys. Like that's understandable. You're not grinding those as much. Yeah, he's a wide receiver like four now in Dynasty. No, actually, no, that one's embarrassing. I mean, like originally coming into the league, you're not like hyper paying attention to all these processes. Spex birthdays, yeah.

But, I mean, we're talking about a guy who, like, 14 touchdowns this year, and it was like a down year, right? 1,300 yards and he missed some time. When he's on the field, they love him. And there's, like, four to five running backs in the NFL that get that. I think with all the fumbling and then injuries, if they wanted to replace their belcow, they were. What did they?

Yeah, we drafted corn because we wanted to give Kyran a break. Did they? I don't know. It didn't really seem like it when push came to show. of. Oh, you keep fumbling? Don't worry. You need to break back out there, buddy. You know, last year was, last year was the Daryl Henderson thing, right? It was now Daryl Henderson. They bring him back.

That obviously means when Kyrin comes back, Daryl's going to take so, guess what happened? They send him packing. And Kiron came back. It was just the dog again. It's, it's interesting to me, but I understand the hesitation with him, but Kairn is just too good at what he does. which is he's really good at everything. He's not a lead at anything. We're talking about a guy that has gotten 85% and 74.1% of touches inside the five in back-to-back years. And he's not just like a slouch yet, a 0.21 mistackled force in 2023. Only a 0.13 and 2024, but their offensive line was pretty bad, didn't give him a lot of room.

We're talking about 21 points per game and 17 points per game at a running back position. to me, that's inside the top 10 for sure. Because you just don't get that with a lot. And let me tell you, every time I play against Kyron, I dread it. Because I know they're just going to give that dude five opportunities to score from inside the five yard line every game. Any game can be a two to three touchdown game for Kyron. And it's maddening. So any catch is past.

Like, to me, it just sets up nicely. So, yeah, that was the big one for me. that I noticed was Kairn Williams. Ryan, who stands out on the board to you as someone that you think is out of place? Yeah, so this is a very weird one for me to be high on compared to everybody else. But apparently I'm the high guy on Travis Etyn right now. I have them at 21 and you guys have them at 27 and 25. but for me he's kind of at the top of what I would just call, like my projectable volume tier.

So I've got him over like the Ramandre Stevenson's, the Najee Harris's, the J.K. Dobbins, those types of guys where if they're a starter on a team, they have projectable volume and we know that they can like be kind of a replacement level lead back, I guess. but with ETN maybe I'm over indexing on this a little bit but I just really like the idea of Travis Eton in Liam Cohn's offense we just saw two running backs be productive in that same offense this past season I don't think that ETN at this point in his career is anywhere near the same explosiveness as somebody like a Bucky Irving but it like can can ETN be like Rashad White pretty easily.

Can he be like Rashad White before Irving took over? I also think pretty easily. And that was a productive player. So I don't know if I maybe if you guys are more concerned about him just getting replaced. If you guys are bigger tank, Bigsby believers than I am. But I mean, I look at that roster and I'm like, okay, ETN is the only running back here that can kind of do everything at at least like

a C plus to a B minus level, I'm always just going to assume that a coaching staff is going to lean toward that guy, at least initially, or that there are at least more opportunities for him to earn different roles. So yeah, I guess that's my thinking on ETN right now. And again, maybe you guys just aren't as high on the offense and the environment. You think that the cringy Duval clip was a bigger deal than I did. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not sure what you guys are going to say, but I'm very curious. To me, to me, it's just simply the, he's on the one year, 50 year option.

He could definitely be moved. Even if he's not moved, I see a world where they drafts a running back, let's say in the second or third round, and now you've got a three-headed monster, demon-type team eventually. ETN already can't stay healthy. He's one of those players that's a risk to me of getting hurt.

And when the rookie plays well, ETN never gets his job. back because they're not committed to him. There's no, he to me is a launching pad type running back where, you know, it's like you play golden eye, right? And the first mission, you have to jump off the dam. You're risking that with ETN every time, except you're just risking that, the bungee cord snapping. The moment you pick him up, the moment you draft him, there's more ways for him to go south than there is for him to go north.

so he is a tough, tough click for me. However, I will say I am buying him if he's at my price. I'll buy him at my price. I don't want to buy him at your price, just simply because there's too many, too many other guys around. Yeah, so I actually think I made a mistake because I think I meant to rank Travis C-Tan at RB19.

That's too high. That's too high. So I think I would be the high guy on that. I'm interested in E.M because I think he's a talented player that... Like over Camara? That would be over Camara for me. And I think that's crazy. Yeah, I think... No, that'd be over Camara for you.

Yeah, that's crazy. Yeah, I'd rather have him over Alvin Kamara. For sure. That's insane. To me, that's insane. That's Andre Miller, Bray. I'm no longer the high guy on ETM. Look at that.

It's not. It's really not that. It's because I know I can buy Alva Camara. I can buy him later. He's 30 years old. you can buy you paid anyway go ahead go ahead go actually you actually believe or not you can't you actually can't we did talk about that i think what et n he has you know possible 80 target upside not definitely good at catching those targets but i think the upside is there

leon kohen in his press conference talked about how he wanted to get brian thomas 11 tar 10 targets a game and he wanted to get et n 20 carries that was the second name out of his mouth in the offense so he's definitely believes in him i mean that could be because which be couldn't matter, but I think it does mean a little bit. We've seen Liam Cohn get a lot out of the run game. He made Rashad White look like actually like an NFL running back. So I'm interested in ETM because I think he has one of the biggest like chances to gain value. And I don't want to call him my like Kenneth Walker of this year, but Kenneth Walker last year as a player was like banging the drum for draft him, draft him. He's way too cheap. He's way too cheap. We did this thing with Walker where he was his

touted prospect, you know, R. We won the class of some people, early second round pick, you know, what, or 102, like, you can be drafted under the 102 and rookie draft. He falls off, goes to the seventh round, and then automatically, boom, as soon as the season starts, he's back up, fourth round pick, and now we're back here again. I think if we just pick a run, want to pick a running back that has the biggest chance to add rounds and rounds of startup ADP or just value in general is ETN, and he could fall off, Like, sure, but no one else has value gain chances bigger than him on the board at running back.

You talk about Kamara. Yeah, Kamara is not moving. He's 30 years old. Like, he's not gaining any value. He's in the 10th round for the rest of his career. He's done. He'll score more points, but he's not going to add any value to roster. We're talking about February.

I want potential value on my roster in February. If I'm buying a running back, rather buy him in February than buy Alvin Kamar in February. Alvin Kumar is not moving from February to September. Travis CTN could. get camp hype he can get coach hype he can go from the eighth round and redraft to the fifth round and redraft like that could all happen it's just not really happening with kamara see i just think see i just think at some point them gaining value doesn't matter because you're not guaranteed to sell for the value gain so at that point you still have to look at how points get scored so to me

there are just certain players and camara is one of them where like i know what he's going to do he's going to get 70 catches. He's going to rush for 700 to 800 yards. Hopefully Taysam Hill just stays out forever. And Camara gets a few more goal line touches, but he'll get eight to 10 total. Like he's going to be a back end RB1 every single year. And even though ETN might get some value gain of the one year contract,

he may not get to me. There's just too many. At some point, I like a little bit of production with a little bit of safety in there, which is why I think I would still just take it. Yeah, I don't disagree with that. But I think with ETN, you look a year ago, right? And we could argue what's wrong all day.

Like, you could tell me it's wrong. I'm not here to argue that part. He was the RB 10 in Dynasty as a third round pick, and he was the RB 8 or 9 in a redraft going in the second round. That was just a year ago, not even a whole calendar year ago, that people had that type of value on ETN. And I do think, like, you talk about the one of your contract. Yeah, I hated it.

You talk about the way of your contracting, yeah, for sure. We got to worry about that. But again, former first round pick, he has pedigree. He'll get a job and how it is with running backs in general, like we talked about NFL, they can just sign him back and it would be fun. So I don't worry too much of that because I don't think like ETN's, you know, in a year, his free agency is the RB4 on the chiefs or something. Like I think he's going to, I think he'll find his way into a role if he, I mean,

it's up to him to keep it. But I think he's like, you know, legitimately talented with real upside. And the guy, he's still young. He's 26. I think he just turned 26. So he's, I just think he's like your best swing at running back once you hit that eighth and ninth round. So, yeah, I have him. He'll obviously fall down with the draft, but that just goes.

Like when you get to like RB 19 to 25, I mean, it's all kind of the same. And you get into just like those, like pure volume plays, nausey, Pollard. Like, I want like, like, that's not the sexy pick. That's like drafting with like a bulletproof condom on. Like, oh, I'll just take Pollard because he's going to, he's just going to score 11 points. and like, man, like, I want some outside. I want ETSN. I'd rather just have that.

I'll take the L if I take the L. like that's like those picks, like they're bull of condom running backs from 20 to 26. Yeah. You'll get that upside with child support payments, Buck. You start thinking like that. You're going to, there's going to be mini bucks running around the backyard. That's not.

That's a scary, dangerous world that we might live in. Kids will just be calling everyone fat running. running backs and having people question you with the discord about it because they think you're calling everyone overweight. Can we just clarify that before we get out of here? Just because we call someone a fat running back or a fat wide receiver does not necessarily have anything to do with their weight. Fat is just like it just means they're a little thick, right? It doesn't mean they're not athletic. We're not making fun of them.

But we talk about all the time. Now, he's a fat ass running back. We always say we want that fat ass running back. Like it's just, it's a term of endearment, really. And it means like, it means like he's boring too. Like, yeah. Like Mike, Mike Evans is a fat-ass receiver. Doesn't mean we don't want Mike Evans on a TV.

He's a fat-ass receiver, though. Like, that's just, like, it's just, like, it's just a saying. Like, and I know, like, it just means. Like, it's what, it's just what it means. It doesn't mean, like, there's just certain players are just fat as hell. Cortland Sutton, a fat-ass player with my favorite players. He fat as old. He is.

He is. Debo is the fat, fat, right? Debo was a fat, fat, fat, ass wide receiver. He was legitimately looking like me out there. And my chair is putting in overtime. I'll put it to you that way. We will release our ranks in the Discord. If people have questions about who we have ranked where, put them in the comments. We will answer them. Shout out for Sean. He knew what I was talking about. Slappers only. Odd job. Real funny. That guy that played off job in prison. So I thought that was that was kind of interesting.

I am just looking through quick to see if there are some questions. We answered the question about picks next year. Neil said he's picking up a dynasty team for the first time. I just wanted to watch and shout out to my hat. Appreciate you, Neil. Looking forward to having you catch these. We have one question here from Maiden's Past. Would you rather 105 and Jalen McMillan or James Cook and Zay Flowers

and a 12-team Superflex. I'll start with Ryan. Let's see. I've been hating on James Cook a lot recently. I think just off of value, I'm tempted to just say cook and flowers, though. Yeah, I think that's where I'm going to lean here. Yeah, I think that's a good lean buck.

Yeah, that's where I'm at to cooking flowers. I think with Macmillan, I think he's one of the more like fake value players we have. Right now. He's, he should be like, he should be in the 10th round of star. up. I've consistently seen him go on the seventh and eighth, and I can't really figure it out. It's just a straight projection. And it's at like, again, when we do that, we can do that.

It's good to do that at running back with projection-wise, but wide receiver, you actually have to be good to earn volume. You don't just get put into a role and earn the volume. And I think that's what is going on with McMillan. They're projecting a lot of things, maybe no Godwin, whatever. But he has to also be good. And he showed some things at the end, but he's super overvalued to me. I think Cook and Flowers for sure. Yeah. We'll also just quickly throw in front of the show Theo Greminger was tweeting out a lot today about some quotes from new Bucks OC Josh Grizzard really, really wants Chris Godwin back is the sounds of it, which would be best for all parties involved as far as I'm concerned, except for Jalen Nick Nolan, unfortunately for him.

I still think Keenan Allen, man. Would have that in mind. Yeah, yeah, exactly. I'm selling him. I'm selling him just off of him costing me the home league because he led a DB. I won't say it, but a little brodom, a DB, a little brodom in the end zone. in that Cowboys game. And it cost me my home league.

So I'm trading them just on principle. We have, you kind of answered this already, but thoughts on Kendry Miller, do you think the Saints draft another running back? Yes. Yes. Yes.

I think they draft another running back. But Joe, Mo Williams and Kendra Miller being more brittle than me. And my knees are shot, by the way. You can only jump off of so many ladders through so many tables in front of a lot of.

audience to have your knees survive. He might be more fragile than I am at my current age and weight. So not great. I think he's a great player. He's a good, I think he's one of those cheap investments we always talk about because maybe, maybe. But yeah, I think they draft a running back new, Kellynne Moore, new system, new everything. Yeah, I don't know.

He also couldn't like consolidate a full workload with Camara out. He was losing touches to a running back whose name I can't remember right now. So that's generally not a good sign either. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. Because everyone, he was the DFS darling that week. And then he just didn't hit. He just cost so many people money.

And Jacob Callow wants to know, can you touch on some lesser known RB stats that can indicate signal for breakouts in the following season, Ryan. You write a lot about this, but you have an example of one or two that we can give Jacob before we get out of here. Yeah. And I'm, Jacob, I've seen you,

I think, commenting about this too. Probably your best one is going to be. be mistackles forced per touch, what or whatever variation of mistackles forced. Kind of the problem at running back is there is no magic stat, because really the magic stat at running back is how many touches do you get? That's what it ultimately comes down to. And that's what I do and always will write at the top of any article that I'm like

breaking down a cool stat. That's what it comes down to at the running back position. Mistackles force or any of these other. efficiency stats can tell us what might happen if a running back gets more volume. So for example, just my favorite example today for everything is Ken Walker is third in miss tackles force per touch since he was drafted. Second in miss tackles forced overall over that period on like 300 fewer touches than Derek Henry, which is sick.

I think Ken Walker is one of the better running backs in the league. right now we're kind of just always constantly talking about well is he going to consolidate an entire workload for the full season will he stay healthy for it if he does we know what's going to happen it's going to it's going to be sick and he's going to break out all over the place so yeah he's probably my favorite example right now not not that he's like super under the radar but yeah there there are no like magic bullet stats that are just going to always point to a running back breakout. For all those reasons, I just outland.

And what's funny about that is we say volume is the goat stat, but drafting on projected volume is the biggest misplay for running backs. So that to me, that's just an ultimate back and forth game. When you look at those two statements, because then you're left with like, well, shit. It could be hard to identify, but hopefully that helps. and there will be a lot more on the website for that. We'll talk about it more as it goes on.

Late to the party here, so I have to go back and watch this entire episode, long time, listener, first time catching you live, first time, long time. We love and appreciate you. Thanks for tuning in. How are you guys feeling about Tracy, hold or move?

Ryan does a phenomenal job, outlying Tracy and why he thinks he could be risky and how to navigate that kind of scenario. I tend to agree with them on that one. just a lot of ways he can go south but right now you can't really sell him for much so to me he's more of a hold than a sell he's definitely not a buy but it could shake out a couple of interesting ways i think that's going to do it for this episode we're going to get an in and under an hour and a half so shout out to us with some technical difficulties we still hammered it out

if you want more information on our rankings who we should be buying like devon a chan and some of these elite guys who i got at 311 in a startup and i don't click running backs in the first five rounds. I make a conscious effort not to. I couldn't not click H.N. at 311. He's just an absolute smash pick right now. He's a good buy at his price. If you were wondering why he was on the thumbnail,

yeah, we love A. Chan on this pod. He is, yeah. Thank you for not, like, pumping up his price beyond a place where I can responsibly tout him, guys. Like, I love touting Devon HN. The fact that I get to do it for another year is just, yeah, it's just a gift to me. I appreciate that a lot.

Yeah, that's why I felt with James Cook for a long time. But then people started to really move up and take him at the 106. And it made me sad. It says, need more three-hour episodes. We save those for in-season. The off-season, we can't do three hours. We got to consciously, we love and appreciate that you want three hours. We get that comment a lot, actually.

And that's why we have two dynasty shows usually every week. Sometimes we can't make the second one work. But you kind of get almost three hours between the, honesty podcast content market report we'll be back this week i think we're doing wide receivers for ranks almost kind of like how we did for this show but it'll be just ranks so you can look forward to that for the weekend that the three of us can make that work that's going to do it for today's show we love and appreciate all you guys be sure to go and subscribe i hope you guys had a wonderful super bowl i know a lot of people were celebrating the chief's demise i hated the game by

the way. It pissed me off. I started playing Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 somewhere around half time because I knew that game was over. So I went back to like 9th, the 1,200s England to like get away. I just wanted a competitive game. That thing was a blowout from the jump. It was terrible. But I can't wait for us to record this next market report podcast to talk about the Xavier worthy impending value bump that shouldn't exist. Can't wait for that. That's going to be great. I know Ryan's chomping at the bit for that one. He was in my DMs for that. Fantastic.

Shout out the Eagles. All the Eagles fans enjoy it. That being said, for Andy Buckler, for Ryan Heath. I'm our host, Thomas Tipal. Thank you for making Dynasty Points a thing. We would not be able to do this podcast without all of you, wonderful people. None of you have asked me to join a mock draft since I mentioned it last week.

Thank you. I love you. Remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose in your best days. are always bent tilting.