Fantasy Football Daily - Dynasty Trades To Make NOW For 2025 | Dynasty Fantasy Fantasy Football

Episode Date: December 4, 2024

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Starting point is 00:00:17 Tuesday night, and if you're listening to this via podcast form, first thing, it'll be Wednesday morning and good morning to you or whenever you're listening. I'm happy that you're choosing to listen to Dynasty Points, the most downloaded show on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network. You know how you can keep that going? If you're listening to this right now on the Fantasy Points Now feed, head over to the Dynasty Points feed for this episode and every episode. you get the Dynasty Points Market Report Friday morning. It goes on the now feed on Sunday mornings. You get it a few days earlier. It helps us continue to grow as fantasy points changes its focus to podcasting a little bit more in 2025. Just branching out even more content for you.
Starting point is 00:01:09 No Lucas today. Lucas is under the weather, but don't worry, the three of us have got this lockdown. Jacob Sanderson, Ryan Heath. Joining me as always. Fun show this week, guys. But before we get in Lucas back next week, because I got side bet him for the crucial Broncos Colts game coming up in two weeks here.
Starting point is 00:01:26 Yes. Yes, he will be here next week. Speaking of next week, fun little ditty about next week, Brett Whitefield, joining us for the first time ever on Dynasty Points. We're talking in way too early,
Starting point is 00:01:41 2025, Brett Whitefield rundown of the rookie class set to come in. Obviously things can change NIL deals. Keeping in mind, we have not hashed out our full-fledged rookie takes
Starting point is 00:01:56 and in-depth information, but there is nobody in the industry. I would rather have on to pick their brain about rookies at this time of year than Brett Whitefield, but he's going to make that happen. I'm excited for that. I cannot wait for that.
Starting point is 00:02:12 Oh, speaking up, he's in the chat. Right now, Brett Whitefield is here, getting a sneak peek of what to expect in all of our insanity with the chat and everything else. If we're going to get schooled by Brett for an hour and a half on a bunch of rookies that we've barely scouted, I at least need him to load me up with all the best parlayers for the college football playoffs too.
Starting point is 00:02:33 I need to start filling out my bracketology. I need to know all the best picks here. So let's, you know, Whitefield, we're going to put you to work next week. That's right. He's going to earn the salary next week on Dynasty Points. That's for sure. Well, guys, I think we should also talk about what we have in store for today for everybody listening.
Starting point is 00:02:55 We've talked a lot about how to rebuild, players to target, how to go for it as a contender, trade deadlines, buy these players, flash thumbnail, blah, blah, blah. What we really haven't got down to is breaking down how to set yourself up for 2025. beyond just trade for picks. Like we have, but not really. So what we have today, we have six players today that we have identified as players to get onto your rosters for an opportunity for a value boom to be starting for. Jeremiah Smith.
Starting point is 00:03:26 Jeremiah, yeah, every rookie possible 100%. That's the 20s 27, if I'm not mistaken. I know. I need breast stakes on the current grade 10s. I want to have,
Starting point is 00:03:36 I want to have the stakes on the 2029 rookie class. He'll have, I bet, Is he scouting junior high? Is he scouting any grade eights that are popping for the 20, 2031 class? Brett says he's going to try to come prepared. I need your best.
Starting point is 00:03:53 I need your best 2029 wide receiver one, Brett. That's what I need you to come prepared with. So with that today, that is what we're hitting. We are hitting on a bunch of players that we love to either gain value or be in your starting lineup that you can buy. Very cheap. I see questions here.
Starting point is 00:04:11 in the chat cannot wait uh love all you guys thanks for tuning in again if you haven't already hit like and subscribe all that helps us algorithm after the show leave a comment etc let's dive right into it long enough on the introduction we haven't talked about it a lot here uh ryan this of your show this being your first year here but we do the the league of record has existed for uh since 2020 now and you will be you will be in there eventually we we may have our first person leaving good at this year yeah and uh
Starting point is 00:04:47 Jacob good he says and uh and uh we might have an opening i don't mean i don't even know he's leaving i have not even it's good i just been good to get ryan in there oh i was gonna say i thought once billy left i thought once billy left the show that like we would have had to send police officers to his home to just evict him out of the league and then sub ryan in um but that's apparently frowned upon so Now, you know, we have to wait until someone leaves of their own free will.
Starting point is 00:05:15 Yes, imagine that in 2020. But anyway, we have not talked about it a lot. But I felt like it was important with Week 14, just to know that we're going through it as much as you guys. These standings, Ryan, in this league, are at an unprecedented level. Obviously, Tom Lee, former Fultill Walkabout co-host, he's 12 and 1.
Starting point is 00:05:38 He's the only one that has solidified his spot, Because number two is sitting at 9 and 4 and could be usurped by multiple teams due to the points 4 tiebreaker. Because number 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 are all 8 and 5. Damn. And the max points 4 is what we use to tie break these is all over the map. There is someone that leads the league in max points 4 that could miss the playoffs if a couple people win and he loses. It is pure insanity, and I cannot wait to update everyone. Jacob, you are fighting for your life in this league.
Starting point is 00:06:15 Yeah, because the schedule maker, it's all on the schedule maker. I go into this tie. I mean, anyone obviously, you play in a 12-person league, the first 11 weeks you play everybody, then everybody plays three teams twice. And I was looking at 6 and 5. I was like, I'm in a pretty decent spot. Like, I'm tied with two other teams. I have more points than both of them.
Starting point is 00:06:36 I'll figure it out. and then I start looking and I'm like, the other two teams I'm tied with are playing fucking tomato cans every week to the end. Meanwhile, I've had to play the second, third, and fourth place teams,
Starting point is 00:06:49 three of the four highest scoring teams. I beat them, I won the last two weeks, get the eight and five. I'm like, finally you've got to clinch this. No, the other teams are,
Starting point is 00:06:58 you know, abusing all these tomato cans. David and Joku, David and Goku, kept my hopes alive last week with his 30 bomb. Yeah, big comeback. Chief. But now we're in tough. We got to
Starting point is 00:07:10 play the second best team in the league. I have I just lost Trevor Lawrence. I got Drake May on by. I lost J.K. Dobbins. It's going to be tough. It's going to be a battle of attrition. That's what it's going to be. Bring it back an old classic. Yeah, it is, it's pure chaos in this league, and I love it. It's the closest it's ever been. So we are in the fight as much as you are, like Ryan was, against Jacob and I this week, because we beat
Starting point is 00:07:37 by 0.1 points in the Scott Barrett invitational. Love that. Jacob didn't even know. I didn't know until you sent it to me because it's... There's a 70% chance that I log into MFL to submit lineup. I know. I'm ever logging to MFL to see the results of a game.
Starting point is 00:07:56 Yeah. Zero percent. That's my job in the... That's my job in the co-host, and I know that. 100%. Well, we've made it this far. Why don't we take our first... little break here when we come back we're gonna get into the first player the man on the
Starting point is 00:08:11 thumbnail one of your boys here jacob dakota prescott sit tight we'll be right back man dakota prescott let's talk about dack prescott finally getting to a point keep in mind i have very few of chairs of dack he's always been a click that i i couldn't do in that third round right in that fourth round a couple years in a row couldn't do it but let's talk about dack as a player was the opportunity to not only, I don't know if gain value is what DAC is really going to do at this point, given his age and injuries, etc. But he's definitely probably going to be a pretty damn good option to start for you
Starting point is 00:08:50 if you require him now. Let's talk about it. And eight games played this year. He did not finish two of them. Keep that in mind. He's way below his averages, right? A 0.4 points per dropback. He was 0.54 in 2023.
Starting point is 00:09:04 17.7 points per game, which was 20th. 20.8 was his points per game in 2023. So way off. He has been pressured at a top 12 rate when he was playing with 95, that offensive line struggling. He was right up there with attempts at 286. And the touchdowns just weren't coming. He had 11 with eight picks.
Starting point is 00:09:27 It's way, way down. He's only had six scrambles. He had 27, 23. So he was even down. from 2023 for what we can project. Now, there is some safety in here with Dak, if you guys were wondering. But with that,
Starting point is 00:09:45 Dak has never finished like 10th or worse for fantasy in any season. He's actually finished. He's had a couple of years that ended quickly, but he's never not been a top 10 quarterback when he plays. He has a dead cap of $151 million. According to Spowtrak next year, He's locked in 62 million in 2026, 34 million in 2027.
Starting point is 00:10:07 They have an out at his age 35 season. That is a quarterback that is going to start for the Dallas Cowboys for the next couple of years, given the contract that he locked in this year. And he has CD Lam. He's also locked in Dynasty Daddy quarterback 22 as of right now. A little higher than I actually thought he would be, to be honest. That's one of the most insane valuations in the market. I mean, I get that he's not playing, but especially coming into this part of the year, you know, especially if there's probably more opportunities to have your two quarterbacks back. Age at the quarterback position has always been pretty overrated. If you just think about the age curve of quarterback versus other positions, and especially high-end quarterbacks like Back Prescott, think about like a Bijon Robinson's career right now. He's in year two. He's thought of as a very young player. He is a very young player. What do people see as the timeline?
Starting point is 00:11:02 for Bejohn Robinson's career, probably, you know, three, four more, maybe five more years of his prime, probably a couple of years after that of still continuing to be fantasy relevant. That's a pretty similar realm of career to what we're looking at at Dak Prescott as a 32-year-old quarterback where he can, you could easily envision, you know, four or five more years of him in his complete prime and another couple of years on top of that as potentially a QB2. So I think people often get caught up in the relative age in terms of where they're out in their career and how long they've been in the league and they don't just think about like how long it's going to take in the context of your dynasty league for some of these guys to age out.
Starting point is 00:11:40 Dak's always been Rocksaw for Fantasy. He was like a top three MVP candidate last year. Basically if they go up to Buffalo and they beat the bills last year, I think there's a decent chance he's hosting an MVP trophy. So yeah, it's always, this has just always been the case with Dak Prescott is I've definitely talked about the cycle of Dak before on this show. He continually alternates between either people. people viewing them very positively, talking about, why would I spend up for Herbert? Why would I spend up for Burrow? Why would I spend up for X? I could just have DAC around cheaper. And then all of a sudden, it's, why would I spend up for DAC? I can just go get staff. Why would I spend up for DAC? I just go get cousins. That's been his entire career. There's been stuff like that. Whenever he's in that ladder camp, as when he's a great buy, I think he's a great buy now. I wouldn't be surprised if he's still a great buy next year in startups. We've seen him slide in startups before and then rebound his value immediately. And then
Starting point is 00:12:31 nice thing about the situation in Dallas is as much as it was not good this year, at least they have the hardest thing figured out, which is C.D. Lamb is there and it's going to be there for a long term. They obviously need skill players outside of that. This Brandon Cucks, Jalen Tolbert, Rico, I mean, it's ridiculous. Like enough already. But you can find viable above replacement level wide receiver twos and three. So that's a lot easier to find than a CED land is. Yeah, 100%. So then Ryan my question for you. I'm looking at some of the trades right now that
Starting point is 00:13:05 again, this is from all November. This is Superflex, start 10, right? Point five tight end premium 12 team. This is what we base all of our trades on because this is what we play in most often. If these league settings don't fit your criteria, you can adjust
Starting point is 00:13:21 the process still pretty similar for all this. Obviously, if with one QB, this entire portion might not be for you, but hopefully we can get to you with something else. And just Ferris wants to remind you that, you know, round four Jonathan Mingo was a thing for the Cowboys.
Starting point is 00:13:38 Let's, let's not forget that. Ryan, I'm going to run the first trade by you and just to see what you think here. Now, this is, man, this one tugs at my heartstrings,
Starting point is 00:13:49 but DAC, a 2026 first round pick, a 2026 third round pick in Kyler Murray or Kyler Murray, I should say. Where did the or? Where was the oar? It's Dax, the first, the third, or Kyler Murray. I know, I read that really odd.
Starting point is 00:14:05 Okay. Um, I, it's tough, right? Yeah, that is, that is tough. That's pretty close to me. I think I'm on. I were there. Interesting. On the Dach side there.
Starting point is 00:14:19 I would take Daxide as well. Okay. So why, why, why is that kind of like your, is that your quarterback, like, limit for you there? Like, I see some other ones here that I think are egregious, but this one. to me was like the perfect one. Why are you still so strongly with Kyler? That's the thing. Jordan wants to know is your team good? I'm basing all of these on the team trading for DAC is bad. Like they're just going to assume that it makes contact to the team that
Starting point is 00:14:46 you're on. I mean, correct. Um, so I as far as why Kyler, uh, I just so I just feel that I And this is kind of a tendency I have team building that I think neither of you guys have so much is I feel very comfortable in terms of like I'm getting my elite QB, right? And I get you can definitely come back and say, well, Ryan, that elite QB in terms of value, certainly does not always actually translate to elite QB in terms of actually scoring fantasy points, right? We've seen that. Yeah. Plenty this year. With Kyle. With, well, with Kyler at time.
Starting point is 00:15:26 he's, I mean, he's had his games too, but. Yeah. So we got him in QB 13 right now, right? Yeah. Oh, in terms of score. Yeah. So I don't know. I just, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:15:39 Maybe I'm talking myself out of this one at kind of as we go. But honestly, no, we'll turn this into a lesson. Me saying that instantly, that's actually why you should buy Dak Prescott right now. Because right now, when you see Dak Prescott like in your trade offer or, if someone gets a trade offer for Dak Prescott, they're looking at Dak as like, okay, like he's the old guy,
Starting point is 00:16:02 he's not scoring fantasy points right now. Kyler is the comparatively younger guy. Like, I think of him as more mobile. Like that seems like really good. Seems like he should be a lot higher value. But yeah, when we actually turn the cards over,
Starting point is 00:16:18 so to speak, is Kyler going to outscore Dak in like 60% of the time for next season? Like, if you want to put the, wherever you want to put the chances there. It's not that far off of the value of a first round pick, the value of I know that DAC is going to be playing, very likely for at least a similar period of time as Kyler.
Starting point is 00:16:43 So yeah, I think you're right. The more I think through it, the more I think I'd just take Dak. Yeah, you guys don't see that as like a, in my head I just see, in thinking of it as like a value loss, but it probably isn't, especially by the time. I don't see it as a big value loss.
Starting point is 00:17:00 I'm higher on DAC, I think, than most people, obviously. And probably a little low on Kyler. I mean, when he was injured, I was like well, well above the market on Kyler. But it seems like the public sentiment on him is really improved from where it was a couple of years ago. I'm not sure his play has particularly warranted that improvement. I think he's been kind of what he always is as a real-life quarterback,
Starting point is 00:17:22 which is, in my opinion, a roughly average, real-life quarterback. You know, I don't think he's at any risk of being out of the NFL in short order or anything like that. I don't think that he is one of like that. I wouldn't put him in my top 10. I'm not sure if I'd put him in probably on the edges of the top 15. And then as a fantasy asset, you know, I have to go back to 2021 when he was a top half
Starting point is 00:17:44 quarterback one. And this is in like the standard quarterback scoring four point, which is obviously a more favorable scoring environment for Kyler than if people play in six point or other passing juice leagues. Comes back 2022, seventh. That's when he gets hurt. That's when the season gets disrupted. Since the injury, year one back was QB 11 last year, QB 13 this year. So there's certainly a Florida, Kyler Murray, absolutely. But it's been a while since we've seen the fantasy ceiling of Kyler Murray and on a sustained basis. And it's a little hard for me. Like, like Kyle Murray based on how we used to score is obviously like when you think of
Starting point is 00:18:24 about it, it's like, oh my God, like, you're comparing Kyle Murray to like a Baker Mayfield or a Jared golf, and it seems preposterous. And I would rather have Kyle Murray than those guys because we've seen a much higher ceiling for him than those guys. But like, you look at how they're scoring now, and over the last couple of years, it's not really that different
Starting point is 00:18:40 because they play this ball control offense. They don't run Kyler at the goal line. And I don't view Kyler much differently than some of these other kind of, like, clearly good enough to start in the NFL, but non-elite quarterbacks in terms of do I think this guy's playing for me at 37? Do I think this guy is immune to massive disruptions of his value?
Starting point is 00:19:00 So I think I've been kind of steadily moving Kyler Murray down in my rankings and certainly in my perception. Yeah, I would struggle to like afford him more than like a two first valuation at this point right now, I think. I do want to add this just quickly because this was like what I was starting to build into like the pro-Kyler case, but I realize it's more of like a redraft take than something we should probably be putting into like our dynasty valuations. It's more like, oh, this might be a thing that's happening. I don't have a lot of confidence in it. But I will say the two games
Starting point is 00:19:37 since the Cardinals by, they've actually gone a lot more pass heavy, especially in terms of pass rate over expectation. They've been above a positive 9% in each of their last two games, literally nine out of their first 10 games of the season, they were a negative PROE. I don't know that that's going to sustain. From what I could find, there was no, there was nothing like from Petzig or anybody in the media saying,
Starting point is 00:20:04 we want to be throwing the ball more, unless you count like we want to get Marvin Harrison Jr. More involved, I guess that's one way to do it is to up the drop back. Yeah. So that's just a thought. Like we could, I wouldn't be.
Starting point is 00:20:18 that shocked if they're dropping back a lot more for the rest of the year. Does that make me feel all that different about Kyla Murray as a dynasty asset? Probably not. But yeah, it was just things running through my mind that I thought were decent to share. I think the point of that trade not discussed enough is the 261. There's ambiguity with that 261. And if you're rebuilding, you can't replace that type of asset, right? That 261 becomes the most important asset in that deal, probably in,
Starting point is 00:20:48 in that two years to see where it falls. So that to me, right, you're getting reasonably replaceable production and then that first that you're going to, again, you're never mad the year that first becomes like the year, right? You don't look back two years ago. Like, man, how did I get this stupid first on my team?
Starting point is 00:21:08 So that, that to me is where I'm looking at it. We got one more with Dak, and it's the one in the thumbnail, sending away Tua and a third for Dack and Chris Godwin who obviously
Starting point is 00:21:23 had his ankle explode. This one is a little more interesting to me, but I view Dak and Tua like the same when they're healthy and playing. So let's go. You obviously are going forward at this point. Those two guys are hurting on IR. This works for a rebuilding team.
Starting point is 00:21:39 Are you confident enough sending Tula away? I think I am. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I'm totally fine with that. Yeah, this one seemed less close to me, honestly. And maybe the reason for that is I think just we've seen elite production out of Chris Godwin in the fairly recent past. I think we can quibble over how likely is it that kind of this perfect storm of him being featured in this design target role and him being healthy?
Starting point is 00:22:11 and all of these factors coming together happen again for him, especially next year or the year after. Who knows what this team and this offense looks like two years from now, if that's when he's actually healthy in 2026. But yeah, I just, I think the upside of a Chris Godwin getting back to that is a lot more than a third round pick to me. And yeah, as you've said, if the production between Atua and a DAC is similar-ish
Starting point is 00:22:39 and the values a lot closer as well, I think consensus-wise, and yeah, I'm just always taking the Godwin kind of moonshot there. Yeah, I wish I knew what team Chris Godwin was going to be on next year. I think it's just like... Yeah, I mean, that would be nice, right?
Starting point is 00:22:57 That's certainly what we want. It's the variables of like... I think Chris Godwin is it... He's a unique receiver, and I think that's why we've seen such swings in his production to such a high ceiling, but other years that can't imagine. match that is he's a very good receiver, but he's very good at like a few specific things,
Starting point is 00:23:15 but he does have holes in his game that are different than some of the other receivers he's been valued similarly to in the past or produced similarly to in the past, where he's not just the wide receiver that you just kind of line him up thoughtlessly at X and let him go win. He can do that, but it's probably not going to result in the league winning season. He kind of needs to be that F slot receiver and playing in that sort of Cooper cop Amunrah world to be a like 18 points per game league winning guy. And I think I still take that side just because like Ryan said, like really two and Dax are going to produce similarly.
Starting point is 00:23:55 Dax had a much higher fantasy ceiling. But I think going forward they probably produce similarly. And all you're buying with Tua really is years. You're just buying like years that really are out into the future. or I guess what you're buying is in two, three, four years, he's going to be more valuable. Do you care about that? Maybe, I don't know,
Starting point is 00:24:15 I'm probably just going to take the goblin side and try to worry about the present on that front. They bring that trade up specifically, and why it's on the thumbnail, because in the league that I am back-to-back champion and currently sitting in the number two spot is a league that Jacob and I are in, and I declined the Tua in the third side,
Starting point is 00:24:33 and I'm still contending, because I have a couple of all. old dusty quarterbacks. I declined that deal. So that's why I thought it would be interesting to get both sides. I have Stafford. I have, I've got other guys that I can put out there on a week-to-week basis,
Starting point is 00:24:47 and I kept my Dak Prescott, and I kept my Chris Godwin in that regard. So you don't have to move them as a contender, which is why I think it's important to have these conversations, but I very much agree. I obviously prefer DAC over to a, like that just personally, with a range of outcomes,
Starting point is 00:25:07 etc. I've proven that by declining their trade in that league that I just mentioned that Jacob and I are in. So it's interesting. 100%. So that's DAC by DAC.
Starting point is 00:25:19 Like I actually had forgotten about the circle of DAC. Jacob, like that is just something I completely forgot that you did a whole bit on and it strikes true. Once again,
Starting point is 00:25:28 we are in the buy DAC. And you can either be, you can even, this isn't limited to like if you are out of contention for, you can be contending and still go and buy DAC because price is seemingly low enough. I see a couple
Starting point is 00:25:42 of seconds. I've seen some other, you're telling me that if you're in like 11th or 10th, and you're kind of band-aid quarterback position, you're not willing to send your like 2.10 and like next year's two that's definitely able to be got again to just go and secure DAC
Starting point is 00:25:58 to make another run in 2025, you can get creative. It doesn't have to be a linear that you're not restricted to, oh, I'm out of it. I have to buy this injured player. You can be in the thick of it and still make moves if you don't have a trade deadline. There's multiple reasons to go and buy DAC.
Starting point is 00:26:17 It does not have to be just because you are, quote, out of it, tanking, looking to bounce back. That's an important part of dynasty that does not get talked about enough because there's more to it than contending and selling and rebuilding and retooling, et cetera, et cetera. I see some comments in the chat. Chandler, that question is one that we can get to in a little bit. Not at this point. We do answer questions like that, generally kind of in between segments and stuff. So sit tight.
Starting point is 00:26:54 Theo just says DAC plus what for Tua? I'm not making that deal personally, but again, the trade on the thumbnail, right? Dak and Godwin for two and a third. it's totally reasonable. Like that's a totally fine trade to make. I'm just not making it.
Starting point is 00:27:10 I like my bet on the player specifically. Jordan Williams says CMC or DAC. I'm just taking DAC. Dak. I'll just take DAC. I traded to... We should talk about CMC though. I mean, that's the hot topic dynasty guy, right?
Starting point is 00:27:25 Yeah. What are you guys? Someone say in the chat earlier. I think someone had put in the chat, what would you trade for CMC? You scroll up and have a lot. look, I will just say, like, I traded Tyree Kill and James Winston for DAC in the League of Record. And we talked about that on the Market Report pod.
Starting point is 00:27:44 Like, I'm just taking DAC for these aging elites because he's a quarterback. He's got the value. I need them. And just for the most part, I'm willing to take that bet. Yeah, I'm easily taking Dak there. First comment on the night, Double D. And I think this is the guy that deserves the discussion today. Oh, yeah, he was first.
Starting point is 00:28:02 Am I crazy to want to buy CMC on Rebuilders? what do we feel as acceptable risk quest to pay? So I'll just like, yeah, I think it's the chance I think it like, because one of the reasons I was super, super aggressively buying TMC like years ago, back when he had his first bout of being injured all the time, was that there was still, I thought, and proof correct, a pretty good prospect of rented production, as in you buy CMC while he's injured, you get him back,
Starting point is 00:28:32 he produces a ton of points for you. You get to enjoy those points. At the time that he's producing all of those points, he puts all of his crippling injuries into everyone's rearview mirror, and all of a sudden he might actually finish the year more valuable than he started the year. And you might be able to basically just rent
Starting point is 00:28:48 a season of league winning production and then sell him when the dynasty market's assumptions about his health start to tilt back towards the pendulum of optimism in CMC's continued of health. And we really saw that. CMC was regularly being drafted this year in the mid to late second round of startups coming off of two consecutive healthy years. So, you know, we weren't very in on CMC this year at that tag.
Starting point is 00:29:16 I think that the bet this time is fundamentally different in that he's now significantly older than he was then. Like, you look at like how Barclay's dynasty value is this year, right? Like, it's high, but it's certainly nowhere near as high as what CMCs was that is absolute peak the last couple of years, or at least I don't perceive it to be. And that's just once you're at a certain age at this point, like CMC coming back will be a little bit more like,
Starting point is 00:29:41 maybe even more than Barclay, more like even Henry, where it's like, I'm enjoying these points, but like if you think about Derek Henry gets treated right now in Dynasty leagues, oh yeah, like you're going to have,
Starting point is 00:29:52 you're going to need to cough up a one to buy him because no one's going to send him for less than that. But a lot of the leagues that just results in him not even being moved, because there's not that many people that are looking to give up more than a late one. for Derek Henry at this age range. So I think if you're buying CMC, the key is you're just making a bet solely on.
Starting point is 00:30:10 How much is it? How high do you think the ceiling is on this production? How long do you think it's plausibly can sustain that production? And is whatever production you get, like worth whatever you're purchasing and just make that purchase knowing you're never going to see these assets again?
Starting point is 00:30:25 I don't think you should, you have to, I don't think you can buy now thinking, I'm going to buy while he's low, then I'm going to sell while he's high. you're just buying and then you're just going to accept that he's going to produce maybe and then he's going to get hurt maybe and for some period between that hopefully he'll score a lot of points and you hope that those points are worth more than whatever asset you shilled out so to me I think that comes in and like the like I probably wouldn't just send a late one
Starting point is 00:30:55 straight it would either be like a very very late one like literally the 112 or like the equivalent of like two seconds of value. That would be kind of the world we're living in. Or ideally, in a team right now, if you could sell like, I just offered, I don't know if it'll get accepted or not, but I just offered Jerry,
Starting point is 00:31:15 Judy and Kirk Cousins for CMC. We'll see what happens, something like that. Yeah, I think those are fine. Like packaging a couple pieces that you probably just look a little shinier today than they will in, you know, five months from now,
Starting point is 00:31:29 especially after the big game by Judy. Like he's like fifth in the league in receiving now. Like it's just, I'm crying. I just wanted to see what Tillman would have done in that game last night. Like Tillman, you see for. Oh,
Starting point is 00:31:42 Jerry Judy. No, dude. So Jerry Judy scored on, I think is Levi Wallace like multiple times. On the same play that Timon scored against Baltimore, where he just started running down the field and the DB for some reason was like, no,
Starting point is 00:31:58 he's going to slow down. stop. I don't think, I don't think Tillman would have done that much because we talked about this last week on the show. And when I talked up Judy and the players of the week, like the theory, my theory at the time was either Tillman's going to play, Tulman's going to play X, he'll draw CERTAN all night and then Judy gets the easy matchup, or Toulbin's out. And then I just hope and pray that she consolidates enough targets in spite of the matchup.
Starting point is 00:32:24 What actually happened was they just played Cirtan on NPC wide receivers all. night because they didn't want to move what side of the field he was on and then Judy just got to go up against a horde of backups. It was insanity. Um, so, uh, yeah, I mean, I'm guessing that if Tillman played, it would have happened as he would have ran 100% of his road. I still, I don't think it would have mattered. They couldn't cover anybody, man. Like, Judy was even running just completely wide open, no one anyway. Besides the point, also, I just want to point out as we go off the reals multiple times on this program that like Bo Nix's throw to Mims that that was, almost he almost dropped it and I would have been I would have been rage baiting on Twitter so hard had he actually dropped that ball I would have been relentless throw the year I don't care what other throw gets made this year that was an absolute piss missile I was a howitzer that was just seeing it throwing it and believing in it that thing looked like it went like a garret cole fastball 104 miles an hour down the scene
Starting point is 00:33:28 I can't believe that that. Throw the year. Like I can't believe that he fit that in that window. That was insane. That was unbelievable arm talent. Unbelievable arm talent. He's the goat and I'm so happy that I was in on him. Ryan,
Starting point is 00:33:39 you were also weigh in on him. His price was truly insane. We're going to talk about that in the off season. Yeah, same thing. I don't mind sending like a bunch of pitter, for CMC and hope for the upside, but you're right. He is going to die on my roster.
Starting point is 00:33:54 Like, Derek Henry is going berserk this year. and people, if you're trying to sell him, people treat him like he showed up to Christmas dinner and beat the shit out of the nephew that you liked. Like, nobody wants him. Like, nobody will pay anything for him. And anyone that has him doesn't move him for less than a one. So yeah, not good.
Starting point is 00:34:16 Yeah. What I just wanted to say on this, just since the question was, should I buy CMC on Rebuilders? I think specifically on Rebuilders, you should not be buying CMC. And it's because of what Jacob's said, the value is never coming back.
Starting point is 00:34:30 Like if your goal on a rebuilder, especially with an older player, is I, I want to pay a cheap price now and be able to flip it around later, you should not be buying CMC on any team that you don't think is in a position to benefit from the points that he's hopefully going to score. Yeah. And I mean, personally, maybe I'm just like less optimistic on the health stuff or I'm an even bigger ageist than anybody else on this podcast. I'd be at like a second round pick in terms of like the value. Oh man. I was buying off of you. Okay. Yeah, that's fine.
Starting point is 00:35:04 Depends what you mean by a rebuilder, right? Like if what you really mean is a reloader, as in like you suck this year but you're planning to compete next year, like then I'm in on it. Yeah. But yeah, if this is like you just tore down your team and next year is going to be a year of pain, you're gambling.
Starting point is 00:35:24 You're flying way too close. to the sun. If you're a natural, if you're like playing the like CMC needs to come back just so I can sell them for 20% more like get out of here. Yeah, like in week three. Yeah, that's yeah. If you're a natural 101 or like a natural 102 type thing, yeah, he's not going to help you at all. There's no value in trading him just to keep your picks and stuff. But I still think there's, there's something to be said for sending like you just said Judy and cousins and some other Mishmos, Mish Mosh veterans type type deal.
Starting point is 00:35:56 Should we talk about Judy? I mean, you're just treating him like he's a Mish Bash veteran. You're not buying the Jerry Judy Renaissance? No, he had like 17% of his career production in that game. Yeah, I'm in,
Starting point is 00:36:08 but just a little bit. I'm in for a little bit. But like, I don't think Winston's on that team next year, he's gone. They're committed to Deshawn. Sure?
Starting point is 00:36:20 Yes. No, they're not committed to Sean. They're not. They're not. They're not moving them. And if he's healthy, he's playing. Like, I,
Starting point is 00:36:26 I still firmly believe he's playing week one. We're, we're, we're, okay, I, James Winston's a New York jet. I'm just,
Starting point is 00:36:32 I mean, oh my God. I want that. But I think I, I would bet I would bet on the, we're, we're talking about Winston later. We're,
Starting point is 00:36:38 we're, you know what we're going to do? This is a spoiler. This is what they call a spoiler, ladies and gentlemen. Uh, we're talking Winston later with a, in a couple of players.
Starting point is 00:36:47 We'll tie in Judy and the Jets and somehow we'll end up talking about Aaron Rogers and his ridiculous Netflix show. Well, somehow going to tie that into this show because that's what we do. But we will talk about it when we get to James Winston.
Starting point is 00:37:07 First, we're going to take a break. And as long as Tyrod can just get Gary Wilson the football. He missed Rogers missed Gary Wilson for walkins multiple times last week. And it's an Andy Buckler. He did one of the best bros to the week, man. He had like, it was. He basically did the same, I mean, he broke outside instead of
Starting point is 00:37:24 inside, but he did the same thing that Keenan Allen did on his beautiful Thanksgiving touchdown. And like, yet he was literally like eight yards open in the end zone on a first read and he got airmailed. It was, I wanted to go to Rogers and punch him in the face and then like, I don't know, step on
Starting point is 00:37:40 his face. And then like, just like forcibly inject vaccination into him. All right, take a break. We come back we're talking play quorum sit tight there's there's no show like this one period uh we're one of one eyes are bitch there that was gonna be just throw tyrod into the game
Starting point is 00:38:06 oh my goodness it's completing the circle right they they jabbs something into tie rod's lung i was i was just gonna say and then you get tyler back in by by jabbing rogers with a little bit of madurna The circle of football life, ladies and gentlemen. Ryan, one of the players that you wanted to talk about was Blake Corum. And when you mentioned this, I was like, I find it interesting because every time Twitter, and this happened to me again this week with, I saw even our guy Theo Graminger, I saw our guy, D-Bro, I just kept seeing like Blake Corm was about to take over.
Starting point is 00:38:48 And I'm like, oh, the Rams are on their third. drive again. That's what it looks like. Yeah, but hold on. Let me finish. I've stopped even tweeting it. Like, I used to live tweet every time we got the Blake Corum drive 3. And now I've just given up. It's like, we can't. I wish it was true. I love Blake
Starting point is 00:39:05 Corum. I think he's really good. I think Tyro Williams is pretty boring. I would love it to be true, but I can't wish it into existence. I don't coach the Rams. Sean McVeigh does. Right. And that's what I pointed out. It's like, I went and looked, as I'm like, I know this dude, there's 20 points again.
Starting point is 00:39:20 like where was the downfall but Ryan I liked your approach to this and this is why I think it's important to talk about it beyond just by every rookie running back not playing right yeah exactly so I guess first to lay the land just so everyone knows what we're like meaming about is every single week Kyron Williams starts the game for the Rams plays the entire first drive quorum comes in usually on the third drive this week it was actually the second drive I think because because it was like deep into the second quarter by the time they got to their second drive. So they just wanted to get Coram in before like before the second half. So that that's what they did. The drive happened to last a bit longer than it normally did. Corum got like five carries. Kyrin eventually actually came in on that drive when they were starting to approach the red zone, which is also very funny to me.
Starting point is 00:40:14 And then yeah, you look at Twitter. You say you realize, okay, everybody is saying Kyron Williams is. losing his job. I read this every single week when the Rams play at approximately this time in the game. And then it was basically Kyron rest the rest of the way after the second drive. 14 of the 17 carries over 100 yards, got the touchdown, all the goal line work, everything you expect from Kyron Williams. But this kind of created like a light bulb moment for me, which is that, yeah, we are hit with the reality of Kyron Williams every single week that we, that Twitter gets excited about Blake Corum.
Starting point is 00:40:53 I don't even get excited anymore. Yeah. Like the game in sports. It plays out on your screen in front of you and hits you in the face of, okay, it's still Kairn Williams. In the offseason, like in March or in April, when Sean McVeigh says anything vaguely positive about Blake Corum, like, yeah, we really, we love how Blake Corum has been doing in OTAs or we, like, we really are glad he's in the building.
Starting point is 00:41:19 we feel great about our running back room. Whatever it is, there is no football reality. I just can't. I just cannot. What's up? You feel great about your running back drum. I caught it too, and I wasn't going to say anything. And I saw Jacob's face right away.
Starting point is 00:41:37 And I was like, oh, you caught it. Carry on. No, it's okay. I'll let you guys have your moment. I don't need to give my detailed. No, no, no. We want to hear detail, detail, it was in the moment.
Starting point is 00:41:53 Blake Corrum, I guess. Not, yeah. No, that's not. So anyway, Blake Corum, Corrum, the running back room is looking great with Blake Corum. That's what we're hoping to hear Shaw McVeigh say. As soon as he says that, there is no real football being played in April
Starting point is 00:42:16 to hit us in the face with that reality. the dynasty market is just going to react as if we don't have to care about reality, because you don't in April. And it's going to just be everyone projecting at the very least, oh, Coram's probably going to open the season at worst, like in a 50-50 committee with Kyron Williams. This guy is so much better. McVeigh loves him.
Starting point is 00:42:37 Listen to that. Like, because I think that's what we want to do every single week. Like if there was any one week where Kyron didn't come back in the game or only came back in for 50% of the snaps, Corum's dynasty value would double, like, instantly. So, yeah, I don't have any conviction whatsoever that Corum's going to actually take over any real opportunity share in the Rams backfield at any point this season, but I don't think it matters. I think that's the easiest kind of value bet you can make right now, because nothing can really go wrong with it either. It would be very surprising to me if the Rams added even further
Starting point is 00:43:14 to the backfield. Kind of what can go wrong to new? Blake Corum's dynasty value between right now, I guess short of him getting injured in the next month, like very severely. What can happen to nuke's dynasty value between right now and week one of 2025? I don't think that many things. I think it can only go up with what the community thinks of him and what they want to happen. Well, look like, look right here. Keith, it's hard to believe that Corum is going to be a 10% touch guy for the rest of his contract.
Starting point is 00:43:44 He is the long as Sean McVeigh is deciding that. Kiren Williams is the guy because that's what McVeigh does. He wants a Belkow running back. But that's, that's just it. So there's already this hope narrative, which it really, Keith,
Starting point is 00:43:57 we love you, that it really just proves the point, really. I got, I got more hope for you. Half of it is real hope. And the other half of it is false hope. The false hope part is how many years is Kahn Williams did in the NFL?
Starting point is 00:44:13 This is year three, right? Right. Yeah. How long are contracts? rookie contracts? Four years. What does every dynasty manager do with any running back over the age of like 23?
Starting point is 00:44:24 They're like every dynasty manager thinks that every NFL team who employs a starting running back, that they base their entire offseason plan around how to no longer employ that starting running back. Like that, that is just how every dynasty manager thinks. It's like, oh, man, they can get out of this contract. Oh, they don't have to re-sign him. When they let him walk, it's like nobody ever actually lets these guys walk. but yeah definitely talk about that i think the modal outcome is that they re-signed kairn millions but we just saw it happen to you guys right um but so i'm not i'm not
Starting point is 00:44:59 saying kairm's gonna walk i'm actually saying quite the opposite of that but i i think that you will get that narrative yeah starting up there in the world that's the false hope part the real hope part is all the early season bullshit with um you know ronnie rivers playing over like that stuff's done. Corum is obviously the number two batting back right now. He's the only other running back who ever sees touches. He's been an all-purpose running back at Michigan. He's handled a ton of volume.
Starting point is 00:45:25 He's in a system where they want to have one guy handle all the volume. And I mean, I'm a big Coram fan, so maybe it's biased. But at least in recent weeks, I thought he's looked good when he gets on the field. I think he's looked more than capable enough where if Kyron Williams goes down, I think he would step into a very Kyron Williams-esque role. I don't think because they have another guy. I don't think they need another guy. I don't think they want another guy.
Starting point is 00:45:46 So at some point between now and the end of next year, just statistically, it's pretty likely that Carter William is going to miss a game at some point. And when he does, I think everyone's going to be very, very excited about starting Blake quorum. You're going to get, like, if you think that five touches on one drive in the second quarter is getting people excited about the Blake quorum takeover,
Starting point is 00:46:08 like imagine Kyron Williams springs an ankle. And Corum plays for a whole month. and he averages 18 fantasy points per game, which he is pretty easy to envision because they'll probably just give him 90% of the snaps. I mean, at that point, everyone is going to be writing the, can't put the genie back in the bottle,
Starting point is 00:46:25 it's going to be. And I mean, I think that is like the only path where it actually is plausible to be 50-50 is if they actually see Coram do it for a month and they become comfortable enough with him. Even if that doesn't happen, that's where people start to really talk themselves into it. So I do agree that it's there's the bottom can't really fall out here.
Starting point is 00:46:45 Very safe buy. I think he's a good player. And I do expect that you're going to have some sort of window where you're going to be able to start him and get a lot of points and get a bit of a value bump. Just by virtue of the chances that Kairn gets hurt. Blake quorum is Dynasty Daddy RB 37 as of today, which is kind of crazy. Here's a couple of trades. Like we said, this is what we like to do. We like to talk through a player, talk through the takes, really set ourselves up.
Starting point is 00:47:14 And then we face the music with trades that actually happened in leagues to see if we're full of shit or not. And see if we walk back our stances, because that to me is the best way. If you look at the trades first, then you can kind of change your narrative on the go. Here, we like to call it out and see if we stick with it. We've got Blake Korn for Rashad White straight up. Yeah, I'm a little torn because. White, I think, is so shitty, but his fantasy skill set is so strong. I think I would still roll with quorum there, just because I'd rather go to the guy who
Starting point is 00:47:51 hasn't already been you served. I'd rather go to the first thing and get the shot and then lose it. Yeah. And you're never getting, like, the value bump with White again. White is always going to be viewed as, like, damage goods. Yeah. Rashad White, we just need to wait. We just need to wait a couple years until we get second team Rashad White as the,
Starting point is 00:48:09 as the third downback and handcuff. Because that is like 37% of the best ball exposure. When Rashad White is like, when Rashad White is viewed as like the dusty old guy who isn't given any guaranteed touches. And it's just, he's just like this really fantasy friendly contingent back. Like a A plus plus version of Darrell Williams.
Starting point is 00:48:33 That's the dream. When Rashad White is on the Chiefs, as Isaiah Pacheco's backup, that's what I'm like windmilling. round 14 he's a future shanahan that's that he's a future shanahan reclamation project that's what i'm going with i'll also take i'll also take quorum here but brashon white man one target and one catch in back to back games he's just been completely over over thrown but uh by he's becoming the passing down guy he is top top six dynasty running back bucky irving who you'd
Starting point is 00:49:04 already have on your roster if you listen to the show enough um yeah Because we were all about it. I was all about them. Draft all the running backs in the second round. We did the Bucky Chase Brown last week and both went out and balled. Yeah, we were both right this week. Yeah. All right, we've got Quentin Johnston or Blake Corum,
Starting point is 00:49:29 Blake Corum and Isaiah likely. And that's pretty easy for me. Yeah, I think I don't even need to add likely in that. I think I'd just take quorum over Johnston. Yeah. So would I? So would I? Yeah, I don't care about Johnston at all, but
Starting point is 00:49:43 I mean, it was quorum and likely for Johnston. Yeah, that's what I heard. Well, I would take a used piece of toilet paper for Quinn Johnson. I thought it was quorum or likely, and I was really torn about that. Your brain had to register for a second. Like, what that was. The reaction was worth it. I thought the last two weeks, I thought we were finally done with the pretending Quinton Johnson
Starting point is 00:50:08 was having a renaissance after we watch him drop like 18 balls on Monday night football. No, Ryan Heath's mentions are still full of people that don't understand what broken coverage is. So, uh, no, honestly, they actually, they quieted down after that game,
Starting point is 00:50:22 funny enough, which is kind of my expectation. Yeah, good, because I was going to dive back into those comments. When a guy looks bad on a prime time, and it has a way of. Last one.
Starting point is 00:50:32 Yeah. Last, last trade here. And this one's interesting because one player is bawling out and the next one we're hoping to get the chance to. Will Levis or Blake Corum and a 25 third. I'm going with the Mayo Man. Yeah, you have to, right?
Starting point is 00:50:46 I've taken the swing. Yeah, you take the swing with Billy Jeans. What about you, Ryan? Yeah, no, I, yeah, I gave me. Because this is, this is what it is. You're like paying a second for Blake Corum, right? That's really what it comes down to for the most part on the price. A lot of people where you're like, yeah, can I get a second for Will Levis?
Starting point is 00:51:02 They're like, I don't really want to pay that for Will Levis. So, like, it's interesting how I, me too. I did it in the office. and it's worked out pretty good. He's got a good schedule. I think Will Levis has done enough to like skirt the 20, 25 rookie quarterback class as long as he keeps this up. But yeah,
Starting point is 00:51:19 I'm willing to pay that. Will Levis is another guy we could have talked about. That's another guy I think you should be buying actively if it's the price of a second and you're contending. But those are the trades for quorum. I think it's interesting. We got two smashes, two smashes,
Starting point is 00:51:33 one a little bit iffy. We had somebody asking the chat. Let me look. I think it was Quintin. Yeah, Joanne Jennings, Elijah Moore, and a late second or Corm. I mean, I would just take Jennings over everything else there. Correct. Yeah, I'm in agreeance there.
Starting point is 00:51:49 That's a lot for Corm and taking the shot. Jennings, I think, is going to be good next year as well. Talked about Jennings something two weeks ago, but... We did. You can check that. I'm pretty in on Jennings. Like, his usage had still been fine the last two weeks. I know that the production has cooled down.
Starting point is 00:52:03 One of those games with Brandon Allen. Next one was in a big snowstorm with a, clearly hurt rock party um i i'm still quite in on jennings i mean all we see every week is the debo looks like i don't know what happened but like somewhere fat he got fat he looks somewhere along the line like he looks like i'm not on his door and he look for his everything so i remain very in oh and piercell's doing nothing yeah looks like uh looks like a looks like a nothing so uh everything all the stars are aligned for for vfl julys i i i'm on Jennings.
Starting point is 00:52:38 Yeah. Debo said the entire team is just collapsing around Joe on Jennings right now. Yeah. And it's much of it that carries into next year. Yeah, no, I'm, I'm into it. Debo looks like me if I were to put football pads on and walk out for like an alumni game for the team I played for. Like, it's not good. And he was like, why is this dude returning kicks?
Starting point is 00:53:01 I don't know. Like, he looks fine returning kicks till he fumbled. But yeah, it's, it's rough out there for Debo. But I think those are great points. I think we have another player we have to, you know, touch base with again because he's still kind of a hot topic with how ass Xavier Worthy has been, not the metric. This dude cannot track a deep ball to save his life.
Starting point is 00:53:24 But have you considered, you know who's better than real Xavier Worthy? It's hypothetical Xavier Worthy. Yes. Have you seen all of the deep balls that the homes almost hits him on? and all the deep balls that Bohemus did hit him on, but he didn't know where the sideline was. Yeah. If he had gotten his feet down and if the
Starting point is 00:53:43 throws were better, and if and if and if, hypothetical Xavier Worthy would be a wide receiver one. Yeah, he'd be, he'd be wide receiver nine right now in the year if all those hypotheticals hit. He's a hypothetical Hall of Famer, if you ask me.
Starting point is 00:54:00 You know that thing that we said he was bad at like tracking a football? if only that weren't actually true. If he didn't have the awareness of a freshman in high school on a football field, he would, you know, so close. So close. But let's talk about the other receiver that we should actually carry about,
Starting point is 00:54:19 care about. This is a Rishi Rice update. We haven't really talked about him on the show right now. I was surprised to see where he was on Dynasty Daddy and Keep Trade Cut. I'm surprised he's still where he is with guys that he's the head of lad, still and like lad is balled out. So it shows that I was on the right path when I said Rashid Rice
Starting point is 00:54:39 would be a second round pick by the end, by the start of next year. I think he would have been suspension at all. Here's an update. We'll just refresh you on how good this man was in the three games he got to play before he suffered friendly fire. 21.6 points per game.
Starting point is 00:54:54 16.3 expected 28 first read. That's a 40.6% first read percentage. 0.81 fantasy points per route run and a 0.1. 8-8 first down per row run. It was a legit second-year continuation of his breakout season cut short by his own quarterback hitting him with friendly fire because he screwed up. And if I'm being honest, the chiefs have shown me that they need him in the offense.
Starting point is 00:55:19 They brought Hopkins who looks like okay. Yeah, Hollywood got hurt. Xavier looks like Xavier. And they're relying on a seemingly washed Travis Kelsey that looks like I could outrun him in a foot race. I mean, I think Hopkins looks good, but they've lied about how they intended to use Hopkins. They were saying that Hopkins was going to fill the Rishi Rice role. He's not. Hopkins is actually filling what they, I think what Hopkins is really doing is he's filling
Starting point is 00:55:46 the role that they thought they were going to have Hollywood Brown in. And then the role that Xavier Worthy failed at, which was the role that Hollywood Brown was going to do. Hopkins is now the deep threat, but one that actually has hands. And that's good for them. That replaces one need that they have, but it still leaves the void, which they're basically using Noah Gray as the Rishi Rice for finally. Oh, finally. Never wrong. Just four
Starting point is 00:56:08 years early. Here's the thing with Rice is like they need him. Even if he comes back and they bring in another receiver or anything like that, I think he's still a wide receiver two
Starting point is 00:56:24 with wide receiver one upside, but from what we saw, I mean, he was him on this team and how this this team went. This was Lucas's pick so I just have a couple of things a couple notes from Lucas
Starting point is 00:56:38 champing this out and still getting some content here for the show. He peaked at wide receiver 8 on Ketray Cup before the injury. No wide receiver us served his role. He settled in around wide receiver 15
Starting point is 00:56:52 since about mid-October. He said range of trades range in trades from 26 first to T. Higgins, the Terry McLoran as recently as the last two days on Dynasty Data Lab.
Starting point is 00:57:06 Range and trades on September 28th day before the injury was three firsts. Higgins plus first, Brice Hall. He says, I believe the community has settled on what he is worth and his value right now, making him an easy investment
Starting point is 00:57:20 on the year. I agree. I was, I had completely forgotten until Lucas brought this up in the group chat. How valuable were she Rice was at the start of the year.
Starting point is 00:57:32 We're in week 14. I have not. Week three is a long time ago in a football season. We have gotten another player who apparently was already like touted as an RB1 that has fallen off the face of the earth, which another player we're going to talk about later.
Starting point is 00:57:48 We have seen new wide receiver ones, new RB ones. We've seen shifting across every ranking for every position in the game. And it can be easy to forget that Rishi Rice is just sitting there on people's irs and potentially still on contenders that once week 14 hits and they're like oh shit it's real now like the playoffs are coming i got i got to get my winter is coming
Starting point is 00:58:10 we we got to barricade the barricade the castle here and re up for the long haul he might be attainable is there any reason why we should not pay his asking price plus some to get it done at this point can you can you name you want to pull up a couple trays? Do you want me to do the trades already? We're already in the frequency. I don't have any. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:37 So this is the thing. In theory, I'm in on the rice stuff. But I have found myself picking the non-rice side in discussions I've had about this with people. So I'm just, I want to get to into the trades because I'm curious where we all land. All right. Do we care about the same?
Starting point is 00:58:51 I can't give you any like bad thing. No, not really. I can't really say much bad about rice. I did just want to remind it as long as we're reminiscent. missing on earlier parts of the season that we might have forgot about. Remember that one week that Marshawn Lattimore fell over and we had to endure questions about whether Juju Smith-Schuster was in the Rishi Rice role for the rest of the season? That was a fun week that like week five or something.
Starting point is 00:59:17 Yeah. Even earlier. You remember this week like three days ago when David Moore was like 34% owned? Yeah, I do. See, I do remember that because I was towning Adonai Mitchell instead, Jacob. them. Yeah, that was, I played Adnoy Mitchell in 100% of my lineups yesterday, which any time that I take a strong DFS in on a cult,
Starting point is 00:59:41 it just like sets me up for even more rage. Yeah. The process, the process. He was, if he was better, if he was better than he actually was, he would have had like two for 70 of the touchdown, but belass. Yeah. No, Jacob, somehow our, our, like, DFS suffering seems to line up. pretty frequently because yeah I was in the I was like 85%
Starting point is 01:00:03 out of Night Mitchell this weekend yeah fantasy receipts let everyone know too they got us they fantasy receded us if you would we we'd shout them out and let them know when they're wrong but they block us anyway so let's talk about Rishie Rice we have got Braylin Allen and Rishie Rice or Jonathan Taylor Rice yeah rice easily I'm so out on Jonathan Taylor I'll tell you guys we're talking about him on dynasty points market report on Friday I'm out I'm getting out off his game this last week I am out out out the problem is like what can Jonathan Taylor do to perform better and score more fantasy points at this point
Starting point is 01:00:47 not having Anthony Richard nearly every backfield well yeah exactly he's gotten nearly every back well touch since Richardson came back they they aren't using him in the passing game In games, the cults are favored or that they can just ground and pound. Sure, it can work. In fact, probably a decent redraft buy based on the schedule right now. The path is literally just Richardson plays better next year because we are living in 2024, the year of elite rushers with not that much past game usage completely dominating next to mobile quarterbacks.
Starting point is 01:01:23 To me, the prospect that Jonathan Taylor does not have upside because he plays next to a mobile quarterback has been like thoroughly disproven by sequelaan barclay and derrick henry this year it's just that the the richardson stuff is is too inconsistent where he's taking too much of the goal on well not too much from a colts sense but too much for taylor of the goal line work and he just doesn't string drives together the only way that richardson succeeds right now is is the deep balls and so every drive is either a you know a four-play scoring drive or a punt and they don't run enough plays so it's just it's not working right now. The path is just the Richardson's young. He gets better, right?
Starting point is 01:02:01 Like, early career hurts would not be helping Sequoan Barclay have this season. Right, yeah. This is like, Sequin Barclay is all having an outlier season like on pace to break and smash the record. And she didn't hurt his school, annoying
Starting point is 01:02:17 with his 12 touchdowns. For sure. Asshole. I guess this is my only like bone to pick with like the the Seqwan Barclay or Derek Henry comparisons is yes, obviously, like the offense needs to get better. But also, so you can go the Derek Henry route, which is especially through the first eight, nine weeks of the season when the Ravens had one of the most efficient offenses
Starting point is 01:02:42 we've ever seen. Yeah, they can get ahead just off of that and Derek Henry can feast. With the Eagles, it's kind of a more traditional route where they have one of the better defenses in the league and they can run the ball 40 times a game. and that works too. How are the cults getting to that point? Like, based on the defense. And all, yeah, so Richardson has to do the prime Lamar Jackson stuff or the defense has to get better.
Starting point is 01:03:09 But, but yeah, no, I just think it's a longer road than maybe you're suggesting. Ryan said that he didn't want the show to go three hours. I don't know. I agree with both of you guys. I was just playing a little bit of devil's out. I know. That's why. Hey, and if you want more, Dynasty Points Marker Report on Friday.
Starting point is 01:03:25 trust me you're not going to want to miss it we dive deep into this Jonathan Taylor scenario next trade up for this because we haven't totally moved on I think all of these are going to be Rishi Rice smashes except for one so check this out Alvin Camara or Rishie Rice straight up
Starting point is 01:03:42 right? Obviously you're contending right and you want you know 18 point Alvin Cameron no more Tassam Hill right blown out knee down kidding he might he might score a touchdown you don't know um all right
Starting point is 01:03:57 we got some tough ones now the tough ones are here Rishi Rice and a 251 or Garrett Wilson and Sam Darnald uh rice wait 25 well like a theoretical one like what's that yeah I don't know I'm gonna never know we always
Starting point is 01:04:12 assume mid we always just assume mid for the purposes mid to late yeah um that's like I think that's a trade I think I'd probably like assuming that both sides making it are like make sense I'm probably pretty okay with both of those
Starting point is 01:04:28 sides of that deal I think I lean the right side yeah it's tough that's where it gets tough right like it's it's tough when you're talking guys like Garrett Wilson who again we're now again in coming on what year four coming up with just praying for good quarterback play which is what Ryan said could be a concern at the very start of the year in our in our dangerous picks episode
Starting point is 01:04:52 it's happening again, which sucks. I mean, I was, to be fair, I was wrong on that take, though, because I don't think that's affecting his dynasty value like that. No, no, no. I'm saying that we're still seeing Garrett Wilson for who he is, but yeah. I'm saying it in the terms of like we're again begging for the same thing, because we know what we see. We've got one that's Kyron or Rishi Rice straight up.
Starting point is 01:05:16 Rice. Yeah, Rice. Agreed. I'm right there with you. And then we have one that's a little interesting. don't know why this kind of trade get made, but unless this guy didn't have any other picks, but you're making a bet in 2026
Starting point is 01:05:28 where it's a 2026 first or Rishi Rice. This trade is confusing to me. I don't see the, like I don't understand the structure. I think it's a bad, terrible structure, but we're still taking rice here pretty easily. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, I am too.
Starting point is 01:05:43 Somebody said send a late first and Polk when he wasn't completely dead yet for Rice in late October. Phenomenal. Yeah. You killed it. I'm taking advice from you, brother. That's an absolutely phenomenal job.
Starting point is 01:05:57 Yeah, he's at, yeah, wide receiver 15. Really surprised he's ahead of guys like Ladd and some other of the rookie wide receivers that have actually been good. Yeah, that I would be interesting. That's where I get into it. Like, I would be, I would take Jayashio over Rishiris, and I would take LAD over Rishi Rice.
Starting point is 01:06:16 And those are two that I don't think a lot of people agree with. I think J.S.N. and Rishie is like fair. Like, I think that's pretty fair. I view all three of those players as pretty similar archetype players. And so to me, it's like I would just take the ones that are healthy and aren't drawing the ire of the law. Yeah. Also shout out. Jason's brother, like to tweet of mine today where I was asking when the team is going to finally start realizing that they shouldn't give this guy one target per quarter on average when they're not throwing him screens.
Starting point is 01:06:49 he did want to remind Thomas on air that he did say last week that that was going to be his retirement from JSN discourse this year I'm just saying I had to shut him out I brought it up to him cannot help himself no I'm saying on Twitter
Starting point is 01:07:05 that he can't he can't help I'm in the thick of it oh I all all I said I wasn't going to talk about it on the show and I never I will never silence myself on Twitter I will I will speak my truth Ryan and I will not have you try to shut me down on Twitter. But, I mean, I had to ask. It was Jacob Gibbs.
Starting point is 01:07:23 I had to ask him and I have gone back and forth on this. Like, he's so obviously good that they just continue to use him so sparingly. He didn't even get the, he did not even get the screens that he had been getting. So the volume wasn't there, which is why I imagine my mentions aren't blowing up to tell me how good of a game he had because he had like 12 points. So it seems to be how it goes with that.
Starting point is 01:07:45 But let's talk about another player that my mentions like to get blown up about in the Fantasy Points Discord, which you can join at FantasyPoints.com for free. Get the Dynasty content. Jalen Waddle, in my opinion, has finally gotten to a price where I want to buy.
Starting point is 01:08:04 We talked about him not that long ago, but I feel like it's important to bring him back up because even though he's had two better games, one really good game, like his first knockout game, if you would. We know the story with the Miami offense, Janu and A-chan, taken over for Tyree Kill
Starting point is 01:08:21 whose ass does not look great Ryan father time allegations have been brought upon the legs of Tyree Kill yeah I hate one of the guys who hit like the age wall in the season where the guys I was not like saying we're going to hit the age wall in season right yeah and the guys I
Starting point is 01:08:41 had bought into that idea with do not yeah that's it's a better rough scene for my personal takes on that this year So we look at... I think the best thing to do with the age wall is just to not... Like, I really think the best you can do is just not predict when the age wall is going to hit. And just to the extent that you can derive an edge is to like just know that the age wall is always out there and just bet against the players that the market is pretending it's not going to affect.
Starting point is 01:09:13 And then just bet on the players that the market is more confident it's going to project. Because like, yeah, bet against the market. It's basically, like you're, you know, it's like the, it's the harsh dad. You're just reaching into a fucking bag of marbles. Like that seems to be all it is. Like, I don't know that there's much more we can do from it other than that. Anytime that I try, it doesn't work. But that's why we say as soon as we see the signal, it's time to let go.
Starting point is 01:09:34 Like, don't hold on. Just let go. Yeah. You know, like the true villain of the Titanic did to Jack. Well, so here's the thing. I'm not actually, okay, we can get back in this. I'm not actually convinced that Tyreek has hit the age wall. It's just what we're seeing.
Starting point is 01:09:46 We're seeing signs. which is enough for me. Well, so we're seeing, I mean, obviously we're seeing signs that his, his production, his, his stats are all way down. His role. But like, this is happening across the, this entire offense is changing. Like, it's not just a Tyreek, it's not just a Tyreek isolated thing. It's, you know, A. Chan's brushing efficiency is way down.
Starting point is 01:10:08 His receiving efficiency is up and is receiving usage is obviously through the roof. Waddle's usage is way down. And Tyree's usage is way down. and basically all of what they were used to be getting is going to like john new smith and a chan low a dot stuff and i mean i think a lot of that is on line play because like you look at the two intermediate and deep receivers and then the running game are all plummeting at the same time you know it's like both tyreek and waddle just um becoming bad at the same time seems implausible to me um for it not to like be assigned to something more systemic i mean whether those things change change next year. I have no idea. Maybe it's just fucking John Nussmith's offense now for the rest of time. But I don't know. I'm probably going to be very in on Tyreek next season if I had to guess.
Starting point is 01:10:57 It's a good point to make, but we're here to talk about Jalen Waddle. This show is going to go three hours so we keep going on sides on players. That's not on the show sheet. And Ryan, you knew that could possibly happen, but I am trying. It's not me. It's not me. We're enjoying it. It's not me this time. Just saying.
Starting point is 01:11:14 But anyway, we know the story. He's in borderline unplayable, right, as an asset. Way down, 10.4 points for game, 8.4 expected fantasy points, only 14 first read. That's a 16.9% first read percentage. Only a 0.38 fantasy points per route run. The big play is still there, 12.57 yards per target, 13.54 yards per reception,
Starting point is 01:11:37 a 2.15 yards per route run. The role in his route running hasn't particularly changed. And yes, Ferris, the Dolphi, offense offensive line is middle of the pack 100%. I just wanted to point out that Jalen Waddle's big play, which is what he's been. I've talked about this for years. He gets chunks of his production over a couple weeks of the season and in between that, you're hoping he could just get through the game.
Starting point is 01:12:03 But he gives you, yeah, I win this week type production from time to time. And we know that he can do that. That's not changing. He's still young. He has a $31 million dead cap hit. to his $19 million actual cap hit. And then that number just starts to go down to the point where he has $11 million compared to his 21 actual.
Starting point is 01:12:26 So they save some money letting him go. And then in 2027, he only is $7.5 million in dead cap on a $27.7.7 million cap hit. So there's legitimate chance that Jalen Wattle might not be on the dolphins. If it comes down to saving some money in two to three years from now, not saying it's going to happen. but it can happen. Like we see weird wide receiver trades. You are falling dangerously close to the teams don't want to roster their good players. Look, I'm just, look, I'm just, I have to.
Starting point is 01:12:59 I have to go about when we're talking about years down the road. And the reason I am willing to buy is because there is safety and Waddle. He's not a receiver that's on the last year of his contract and his production is down. He's a player where we've seen the production. be really good for a period of time. I don't buy in that he can be an alpha thing that we went in on in the discord and that kind of conversation. We've kind of seen him in that and he still just kind of is what he is where he's very
Starting point is 01:13:28 boom week, heavy type player. The consistency has never been in his game that I've seen so far, especially like you're saying, if this is, you know, Tyreek has a bounce back opportunity. What I'm saying is that he's young. He's explosive. he's in a good offense for now. I think that it could be a wild outside chance that that team doesn't have the same coach next year
Starting point is 01:13:52 and the team does have a different system, but either way he's a good player that does good things, they'll get him the ball. His value is up and down all over the place. And there is some security within the confines of his contract. He is the perfect definition of a buy, a legitimate, underperforming veteran player that people could be sick of,
Starting point is 01:14:11 could be tired of rostering, Player fatigue, who has become available to be acquired because of his productions. Isn't a sell or a buy low, because we talk about that all the time, it's the opening of the buy window, if you would, to a degree that we have not experienced. I'm now officially willing to buy. Lucas brought him up a couple weeks ago as like a player that you should maybe be poking around for. I'm in now. And I think it pays off for you. If you want to buy Waddle, just wait until I'm out, because I was out on.
Starting point is 01:14:43 on this guy for like most of his early career. And then he was, he was always great. And like I could never get high enough. As anytime I increase my perception of him, he would be valued even higher. And then this was like the first year that I've ever been super in on Waddle. And it's been by far the worst year of his career.
Starting point is 01:15:00 So at some point, I'm sure I'll get out again and then he'll be good. But wait on that. I'm still in now. So I wouldn't buy yet. Okay. Interesting. We'll test that in the trades.
Starting point is 01:15:09 Yeah. Ryan. I just don't think I'm ever going to be right on Jalen Wattle. It's not like. Yeah, no, I'm kind of with you. Sorry, all I've been thinking about while you've been talking, Thomas, is that that's crazy to me that he still has over two yards per outrun. That actually is my point to me. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.
Starting point is 01:15:27 2.15 yards per outrun this year, according to what Thomas typed in the show sheet. That is unbelievable today. I looked it up on Fancy Points Data Suite today. Wow. Okay, I'm looking this up. I don't believe you. Day it up. I've got something wrong.
Starting point is 01:15:43 That's what it was when I looked it up today. Just saying. Anyway, let's have a look at some of the trades here. We have, this is what I mean by he, this man is able to be acquired in ways that he had not been able to be acquired previously. I like most of these deals.
Starting point is 01:16:02 Some of them are a little bit funny money. We have got Bucky Irving or Jalen Waddle, straight up. Irving. Bucky. Pretty easy Irving on, all sides here. I agree. We've got Jalen Waddle, a 251 and a 254, or Drake
Starting point is 01:16:18 London. Wait. Repeat that? A 251, a fourth, and Jalen Waddle for Drake London. Oh, on the Wattle side. Interesting. I got a one on top? Yeah. Yeah. I find out you because it's not that London has been bad.
Starting point is 01:16:36 London's been great. No, London's been good. London's been good. Yeah. But I'm not paying Waddle and a one for, for London. Yeah. Interesting. Interesting. I think I would, but that's interesting. I like that. That's good. It's good. We disagree. I don't understand the boom thing happening
Starting point is 01:16:54 in the chat right now, so you have to excuse me. I don't get what that is. No, you don't know. Oh, my God. I don't. I don't know. Even I get this reference, and I'm the most culturally out of touch person. You're not a fan of the Costco guys? You're not bringing the boom? I don't know anything. I have no idea. heard this. I have very obnoxious friends who constantly
Starting point is 01:17:15 talk about the Costco guys. I'm not not a not a Costco guys. We've got Nick. We've got Ryan, why is it bringing the boom and not bringing the boom? Brian's going to quit. I don't know. I can't answer
Starting point is 01:17:34 that. I can't tell you. God, you guys in your clam chowder in your room. Oh my goodness. All right. We've got the. It is legitimately shocking to me that like I always thought that the New England accent was fairly neutral like the like the American Midwestern. You don't have an accent on any other word except for a room. Yeah, I don't know. I guess you're like you're like you're not like what I can't remember which but like you know you're not like you don't sound like like Batman and Goodwill hunting or whatever or Mark Wahlberg like you're you sound like a totally normal person except for the world room. But I got to well I got to understand that these things. We're about to be the 51st state.
Starting point is 01:18:13 I have to get to know my fellow country. Yeah, that's pretty funny. Yeah, interesting. It's 1.76 yards per route run. Oh, okay. So we looked it up. Maybe that stat was like from in the games at Tua plate or something. I would buy that.
Starting point is 01:18:30 I have no idea. All I know is I looked it up. That's what it said. And I probably just wrote it down wrong because no one ever pays me to read. They pay me to lead. We've got the touchdown machine who has more. touchdowns of rookie sensation Marvin Harrison Jr. Nick Westbrook Akine and two seconds for Jalen Waddle.
Starting point is 01:18:48 This trade is insane. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Give me Waddle. Yeah. Yeah. That is insane.
Starting point is 01:18:54 That is insane. We've got just straight up two seconds. We're going to take. We're going to take Waddle. This one to me is the type of trade that I'm looking to go and do. J.J. McCarthy and a 25 third or Amir Abdullah. That's how you know this team is competing.
Starting point is 01:19:08 And Jalen Waddle. Well, maybe if it was sincere. McCormick, we'd have a different conversation. Take that lobby. By the way, do you guys remember, Sincere McCormick was a five-for-five answer at one point this last season? It was the one that I, the only five-for-five that I won was the phonetic clue for Sincere McCormick. I had that. I remember that the moment, whatever it was, two weeks ago.
Starting point is 01:19:37 Running back, anonymous with being earnest. Yeah. when Madison and White both got hurt I'm like I know who is on the Raiders practice squad right now I know exactly what name I write in the everything is not actionable
Starting point is 01:19:51 that's right the best most actionable trivia game in fantasy football but this one to me is interesting I would take J.J. McCarthy here in an instant I would do it would be a quick J.J.
Starting point is 01:20:03 McQuarr if I can send Jalen Waddle right now to whoever has J.J. McCarthy on his I are I'm just doing that I would smash that instantly. Tyler says everyone in the, I'm afraid to read this, I haven't read it all the way. Everyone in Chad hit the like and sub
Starting point is 01:20:18 or suffer the repossession of any good rosters you have on the bubble of winning. Okay. Tamer than I thought it would be. It's always brave when you read a Tyler comment. You don't read the whole comment in your in full before reading it out.
Starting point is 01:20:33 No, I generally just read the box on today. So I don't think I can take much off. Like, yeah. After the bat, we're already into the danger zone. So no supercha today, bro. That's right. That's right. We can't do it in that today.
Starting point is 01:20:46 It's already a bare foot zone. Right. He says Thomas is learning quickly. I adapt fast. This one to me is also interesting. We got Jalen Waddle or Brandon Iuke in a 26 second. I think Waddle. I'm really scared of the expect of the IUC injury.
Starting point is 01:21:04 He might just never be good again. Yeah. He wasn't that good going in. when he was healthy this year. Juan Jennings absolutely just outproducing him in his same exact I have like kind of insane. I have zero concerns about IUC stats this year
Starting point is 01:21:19 but I have immense concerns about IUC's injury. All right, let's move on here. Brian even says he's the Waddle Brian says he's the Waddle Truther and he's sending him for J.J. McCarthy. So that I think that says enough. But I mean
Starting point is 01:21:35 his value is kind of all over the place. You can take advantage of that right now. I want to talk about Tank Bigsby, man. But we're going to talk about Tank Biggs when we come back from this break real quick. You're not going to want to miss Biggsby. We've got Biggsby and Winston, with other random rabbit holes we can go down on this program left before player picks and we get out of here.
Starting point is 01:21:54 So sit tight. All right. Tank Biggsby. We got to talk about them. Talked about them a lot on Market Report this year, like a lot. The RB 34 on Dynasty Daddy right now. It's a little funny to me personally just because of the discourse from the other podcast. But in the tank takeover era of week four through eight, Bigsby had people ready for the
Starting point is 01:22:18 RB1 breakout coming for the rest of the year. Fantasy managers were very fast to buy Tank Bigsby. They were buying up shares left, right and center. It was all over Twitter, et cetera, all through leagues. Then because of injuries to him, the team absolutely falling off a cliff. and keeping in mind that E.TN was also hurt for this stretch, really, and it's been mixed ever since. In those weeks, he was third in the NFL in Russian with 411. He had 14.3 points per game on 11.3 expected fantasy points per game. Keeping in mind that he roughly averaged 24 points per game in the two below games where he scored four touchdowns, I believe he's only four touchdowns on the year in those games. He only had three receptions. He only had three receptions
Starting point is 01:23:05 in that time. He was top 20 and miss tackles for us. As many were saying, he had the juice at the time. But since then, it has vastly cooled off.
Starting point is 01:23:18 It has definitely cooled off in the dynasty standings and rankings. I believe his peak was RB20 at one point on keep trade cut. Remember, keeping in mind,
Starting point is 01:23:31 it was RB 64 at one point in the season. So he still jumped massively. We've seen some explosive with Ryan. I believe you mentioned that he ran more routes than ETN, even this previous week. Just didn't amount to anything.
Starting point is 01:23:44 Yeah. And then I realized it was because De Ernest Johnson was a healthy scratch, which made me laugh again. That's what it took. That's what it takes. Finally! Yeah. But with that it took the by week for them to be like, oh,
Starting point is 01:24:00 we don't have to play this useless like fisherman, 25 snaps per game So I want to run this by you guys So the whole like Doug Peterson Getting fired thing Just kind of all memory hold that it It never happened
Starting point is 01:24:15 We had all everyone was talking about Okay he is fired but he's still coaching Like they had He was fired But he said And they told him he was fired And then he was like But can I just keep showing up to the sideline
Starting point is 01:24:27 And wearing my visor and they were like I guess Well if we do that then we probably I'm a coach I don't think he's actually coaching. I think he's just kind of hanging around. And they just think it would be awkward to say something at this point. It's like if you go to a bar and you order a beer, you order a Corona, they give you a Budweiser and you just drink it.
Starting point is 01:24:49 The next time you walk into the bar, they're like, oh, I remember you and they give you a Budweiser. And at this point, you're too embarrassed to say, actually, I want a Corona. So you just end up drinking Budweiser for 10 years because they think you want a Budweiser. Like Doug Peterson was fired, but he shot up to work then. next day and they were like, do we tell them? And now it's been too long. So they just let him keep showing up to work. Exactly, right. Like, the ESPN
Starting point is 01:25:10 article dropped the night before that game they got thrashed by the Lions. Like, all of our consent was manufactured very effectively beforehand. His job is in danger if he loses this game against the FST in the NFC.
Starting point is 01:25:27 It seemed like everything behind the scenes should have been lined up, but did he then turn around and say actually you have to keep me because we are going to healthy scratch dearness johnson like this is this is what i turned over a new we yeah i don't know uh keeping in mind that firing peterson should happen god i don't know what's going on with press taylor but we have seen him have the juice et n i believe we'll have this last year with his option picked up for next year we don't know what's going to happen happen with him.
Starting point is 01:26:03 The very movable type contract, I don't know anyone that would be buying or investing in him, but I'm willing to buy on Tank right now personally because we've seen him be really good. And at worst, you're getting a really good handcuff opportunity. And in 2025, there's a very real chance that,
Starting point is 01:26:21 guess what, you're going to get another good four game stretch, five games, six game stretch out of Tank, and maybe, maybe opportunity for more. Some of the trades, however, I will say,
Starting point is 01:26:33 have me calling bullshit on myself. So I would like to know, do you guys have any strong takes on tank? Are you interested in an acquiring tank? Are you just out entirely? He's so cheap. Like, these are the type of players that are so cheap for me. It's hard not to just want to try,
Starting point is 01:26:50 but I'd be interested to hear what everyone said. I'm never going to pay more than late two value, I think, or maybe I can get the base to, but that'd be the absolute max because his past catching is so non-existent that the ceiling isn't very high. So like, it gets to a point where you're like, why don't I just buy Brian Robinson for a little bit more. And that's kind of how I felt like at the beginning of the whole tank craze. But yeah, if he's like down edging towards third round pick value, if he finishes up the season
Starting point is 01:27:18 really poorly, then sure, because he did, he did flash them legitimately impressive Russian. Yeah. No, I'm in kind of a similar spot. Like I get my only issue is like I look at like the the keep trade cut rankings and all the aggregators and he's still like above a guy like Blake Corum and I'm just always taking quorum. But yeah, I think for four like very low prices and yeah, that that's like a fine shot
Starting point is 01:27:43 to take. Brian said a contender offered me a third and I passed. He said he might as well hold. I think that's a fair. I think that's a fair outlook. We've got Tank or quorum. Yeah, we're taking Oh, I just answered that. Yeah. We're taking quorum here for sure. I'll say I'll say I let me
Starting point is 01:28:01 I have a thing interesting see I would take quorum because at least I know that if Kyron ends up either not being there or goes down quorum's an RB1 like there's no reason to not project him as an RB1 at that point I don't know if we get that from tank even though our own Brett Whitefield when him and I were talking about this during the tank over if you would I might have to coin that that's actually not bad it's pretty good yeah it's pretty good um he mentioned
Starting point is 01:28:28 how they loved him in his route running. They used them all through training camp like that, um, et cetera, et cetera. And like he's really good at it, whatever explosive. I like breath take on this. Uh, yeah. So I,
Starting point is 01:28:46 it is possible to me that the tank passing work could be there. I just don't know if he's pigeonholed into his role. Um, if that's been so, you just has had total stone hands in the NFL. Like, yeah, he is, he's earned that pigeonholeing by not catching. Agreed. But I, at least, at least I know that, um, cornum is just locked in at that point with as long as McVeigh's around, which is why I think Corum is really good too.
Starting point is 01:29:14 Taking him. Uh, let's talk some trades and see if I've talked myself out of acquiring Tank Bigsby. Because some of these look insane to me. These are just takes. This is just trading for someone for takes because on Dynasty Daddy, which if you're not, go support DynastyDaddy.com. He does great work and should get the shout out.
Starting point is 01:29:37 We've got a 25-2 or Tank Biggsby in a fourth. Anyone? Can you repeat it? No, my God. Are you on Twitter? Oh, my God. We have... I'm TDT malicious that I look like Matt Smith.
Starting point is 01:29:49 I was trying to find the photo of me dressed up as Damon Targaryen. I knew you were looking at something. I knew you're looking at something. I see it's either Ryan's like... tweeting or you're looking something up we have a I only I just want to say I only didn't say anything because Jacob like just answered the exact question and I wanted to just see if he would say it again or yeah I don't know I just thought it was funny no we've got a second assuming mid not late we're assuming mid for tank and a fourth yeah that's that's like
Starting point is 01:30:21 fair value um I guess I'll take the second but that's fair value okay we've got Cooper Cup or AD or AD Mitchell and Tank Bakesby. Cooper Cup, but if you'd asked me like two days ago, I definitely would have said AD Mitchell. So I just would like to be truthful about that. That's where I was hoping we would go with that. Like some of these don't look real to me. 80 Mitchell, like my perception of AD Mitchell after the torture chamber that he just put me through on Sunday is me and him are going to have to work through some stuff. Yeah, hands on site is what it sounds like.
Starting point is 01:30:59 Be him and my financial planner are going to need to have a, my part type meeting. Same question. Same question asked about Corm, Rashad White or Tank Bigsby. Interesting how it changes. That one is closer. Or being good of football.
Starting point is 01:31:19 I think I would probably take Bigsby because I think he has a very foreseeable path. to being a quote unquote lead back on his own merit, which I think gives them a higher value ceiling, whereas White is pretty much just a guy, I think at this point, that is going to be like a contingency scam, which I love,
Starting point is 01:31:41 but that's a different, it's a different show topic. I just, I, I thought it was interesting that it took a little while considering how quick we were on quorum in this Rashad White debate, and then it was 50-50 between, if you would rather,
Starting point is 01:31:56 Corum or Tank. I was not as quick on the Coram Rashad White one either, so you guys... Oh, really? Okay. I remember that differently and it happened just 20 minutes ago. Yeah, I ultimately went with Corum, but... That's just how fast this this game can change here live.
Starting point is 01:32:12 We've got Tank Bigsby, Demerio Douglas, or Quentin Johnston. Wait, what? Release me from this Quentin Johnson torture chamber. That's why we have to... So it's Tank and Douglas?
Starting point is 01:32:29 Yeah. Enough already. I thought I was going to have to shit on DeMario Douglas and I was going to get sad. But damn, okay. That's what I'm saying. There are opportunities to go and acquire Tank Biggsby still on the cheap for these fake players. That's why I asked it. I have concerned about DeMarri Douglas, though.
Starting point is 01:32:50 I got to give my material downgrade today because past Twitter, a lot of i'm in a lot of saltics based group chats so i overlap with uh oh okay and um you know one of the big things on pat's footer obviously is pointing out how they wish they had lad mcconkey instead of jalen polk um and then uh i have that i probably have that then there's a bunch of people in the comments saying like oh like we wouldn't need lad mcconkey's just the same as demario douglas it would just be two slot receivers we can't play like what would be the point, whatever. And they're like, we have a size problem.
Starting point is 01:33:27 And then shout out my guy, Jake Thorndyke, Celtics fan, cool dude, a bunch of leagues with me. He replies, says, we don't have a size problem. We have a, everybody is shitty at getting open problem. To which DeMario Douglas replies, incorrect. And that was at 11 this morning. And I just want to know why DeMario Douglas is eight replies deep. replying to dudes with like 30 Twitter followers at 11 a.m. on a Tuesday, I have questions. So that gives me concerns.
Starting point is 01:34:02 I actually, I respect it. Like, that's hilarious. This is the Melvin Gording searching his name in Twitter after games type scenario. He also then later deleted it. And so like, I'm just fascinated by the prospect of like a meeting between DeMario Douglas and Gerard Mayo when he's like, hey, can you please delete your reply to Jake. And it's like consumed my entire day. Yeah, no, that's, that's fantastic. Yeah, the whole Polk thing, I'm glad I was no
Starting point is 01:34:34 Bueno. That guy is terrible. Shut out, Booty, though. Drafted him. I got him on a roster last year, and he's finally paying off on those tankers. That's why, you know, got to have him pay off.
Starting point is 01:34:44 I think the big takeaway from me here with this tank Bigsby conversation while we bring it all back because we're professionals is that maybe don't buy now, maybe buy in two weeks. right if it if it trends the same way and you want to buy buy in two weeks however if you can send your fake players like quentin johnston out there for him because he's scoring points sometimes when he somehow magically doesn't drop the ball yeah you should be doing that some of these trades on dynasty daddy
Starting point is 01:35:10 they're not even really usable they're just i don't understand how they're even getting done some of these are vetoable like alvin camara for tank bigsby and michael mayor that is a vetoable trade that is that is not a beatowable thing that is exactly the kind of trade that everyone loses their mind over and then it's extremely easy to see how in a year everybody would rather have the other side. That is like the quintessential reason why you don't veto trades.
Starting point is 01:35:33 Well I agree you don't. It's just that that's like so easy to see how that You hashtag never veto trades like I agree with that but like Camara no like that's everyone else in the league is flipping their shit when they see that trade in the chat
Starting point is 01:35:48 I am not fully convinced Biggsby isn't a fake player I agree. He could be a fake player. I will shout out Brian, who pounded the drum to say he's not the worst player in the NFL. Turns out he wasn't actually the worst player in the NFL. So Brian deserves every bit of the flowers for fighting that fight this offseason.
Starting point is 01:36:09 Last player we're going to get to. We got some bonus players on this episode. I've really turned into like nine players to target in 2025, but that's just what we do. Let's have the James Winston talk because we need to have the James Winston. talk. I see it on Twitter. I works hard, loves the game. Yeah, he's, he's, you know,
Starting point is 01:36:29 definitely got better PR than Deshawn Watson in terms of his discretion. But that's, yeah, he does. He just says really funny stuff and it's easier to forget that he's not as his PR team. Yeah. But let's talk about Winston. We know he's bad.
Starting point is 01:36:45 Like he is a bad actual NFL quarterback. Right? Like, he's terrible. He does things that no quarterback should be doing he does them regularly but he says fun stuff and he's great for fantasy which is why I want him on the Jets plus I want to see the Jets lose
Starting point is 01:37:02 many games at the hands of James Winston's continuous pick sixes that he throws on Q but he is a quarterback he's quarterback 32 on Dynasty Daddy he is a quarterback I draft seemingly every year because he's just a free pick late in drafts
Starting point is 01:37:19 and I am team draft these quarterbacks that have potential to do something eventually as part of my zero qb mantra talk about on this show all the time so i have a lot of him yeah he's like the quarterback version of dusty rashad white exactly 100 so let's talk about him this is somebody that uh ryan you mentioned you wanted to talk was let's walk through james winston and why you want to be kind of attacking yeah so i kind of as you laid out here but like i'll i'll put some numbers to it uh He's started five games this season, right?
Starting point is 01:37:53 Three of them have been against top 10 past defenses. That Broncos defense that he just torched for a bunch of fantasy points was the best defense by EPA per dropback coming into the week. So Winston, as you kind of laid out, yeah, he's a guy that can come in at any point during a season and put up beyond usable fantasy production. James Winston is carrying many a superflex re-draft team. for me right now. Like that, yeah, I got the same exact kind of idea as you, Thomas, like all of the catchable air yard stuff is hilarious. He's leading the league in that stat.
Starting point is 01:38:32 That's why he is so great for the production of all of his wide receivers. Yeah, that's all great. Anytime James Winston is airdropped into an offense, we get a bunch of fantasy points and we're really happy. I guess my, where I start to like hit the wall with him is, I have trouble identifying an NFL team that would benefit from going into 2025 with James Winston as their intended week on starter. Like, which team?
Starting point is 01:39:03 And like, yes, I would love for it to be the Jets. I would love for it to be the Giants. Like insert team that has an alpha receiver that we want to score a bunch of fancy points. Yeah, I'm all for it. It sounds great. which of these organizations, I guess it's two, two questions.
Starting point is 01:39:22 The first one is, which organization does it actually make sense for? Would it benefit them? And question number two is, regardless of that, which organization do we think would do it? So I don't know, like,
Starting point is 01:39:36 how I haven't like gone and tried to count, like, the number of quarterbacks from this draft class that I think can be week one starters. It's like one to do it most. Yeah. So this would be like if there were ever a year for James to sneak in as week one starter, maybe it would be this one. But yeah, I just have trouble identifying any teams that it would make sense for.
Starting point is 01:40:02 So maybe you guys can help me get there or maybe not. Or maybe we are all going to agree and it's going to be a boring second. I think that there's only one team that makes any sense. That's the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, that's going to be it. I think that maybe they go rookie quarterback. If they go rookie quarterback, that makes sense. My concern is, like, I don't know that they are.
Starting point is 01:40:23 It's a team. I think Andrew Barry's job is safe, the GM there. He historically has been a guy that really does value age-adjusted production or just younger players generally, at least in other positions. He doesn't strike me as the type of decision maker who would be overly inclined to trade the farm to go take Cam Ward or Shadur Sanders. I think they wind up probably getting out bit. by one or all of the Jets, Giants, Raiders in that regard.
Starting point is 01:40:53 And Watson's going to be on the roster regard, unless I disagree with Tom that he's not that he's going to play. I think he's just going to be in an active third quarterback until his contract expires. And then, you know, it's an organization that is in desperate need of good vibes. And James has kind of provided good vibes. I could see them just being like, look, if we're not going to draft a guy, really high. Like what would be the point of cutting the player that all the fans like
Starting point is 01:41:23 and all the locker rooms like just to get like a different veteran bridge quarterback? Like what purpose does that serve? Just to clog up our cap even more? Like, why not just keep James? I'm sure he would play for them pretty cheap. And then maybe take a quarterback in like the second or third round. And James starts week one until he throws, you know,
Starting point is 01:41:43 27 interceptions in six weeks. and then they turn to the young rookie or something like that. That is the scenario to me that makes the most sense. Because what would be the, like, how much are you going to pay, like, a Sam Darnold if you're the Browns? You're going to pay to Sean Watson like $50 million to be inactive and then you're going to give Sam Donald $40 million? Like, that's not going to work. So their choices are basically either trade the farm after just having traded the farm for Watson to go get Shadur or award or take a shot. questionably early on like an Aller or a Millrow or something like that,
Starting point is 01:42:19 or you just roll with James and then take a later dart. The question is price, right? Does James Wins to take $15 million to start? I think he would not. I mean, I don't know, but I bet James would play for not a lot if he was off. If his choice was a week one starter guaranteed on the Browns or probably back elsewhere, I bet they would get him for pretty cheap. I think he has made a lot of money in his career.
Starting point is 01:42:45 And he would really like to start for an NFL. He does just have the vibe of I just want to play. There's a stronger reason for me as to why I think it's more than likely in Cleveland, regardless of his fact that I want it to be on the Jets. I think Cleveland learned less than letting Flacco go. Granted, Flacco didn't exactly play lights out. Like, it was a volume base. We loved them for fantasy type thing.
Starting point is 01:43:09 Turn the ball over. Sounds a lot like James Winston, if I'm being honest, as I say it out loud. It was the same thing. It was the exact same thing. They let Flacco go, which turned to be right because Flacco looks completely washed now. He emptied the tank last year. Shout out to the goat. And Super Bowl MVP, the Italian stallion, the man from Delaware, we love him.
Starting point is 01:43:29 He's the goat on this show forever. It might have something to do with what's behind me. But that's besides the point. I think they learned their lesson, which is why I believe it's going to be James. Hopefully they keep, right? I believe it's Dorsey. who's just an insanely aggressive downfield play caller
Starting point is 01:43:45 which fits him really well and I don't think Defansky's going anywhere. I think he'll be the coach of this team again next year. It would make sense for him to be. I'm inclined to agree that it's in Cleveland. The question is are we buying with the hopes of and then
Starting point is 01:44:02 the question is for what and I have some trade because we know what Winston is right? We said it. He's a bad real life quarterback doesn't provide much outside of insane spike weeks and you roll the dice with him literally every single week he's out there, which is one of 10 to 20 other quarterbacks on a week-to-week basis anyway, which is important to note. Let's just talk about seconds in base second territory, 26 base second or James Winston.
Starting point is 01:44:30 The 26 second. Okay. Ryan? Yeah. Yeah. I like, I've done that deal like three or four times already. I think in like a hypothetical scenario where you say, can I just like at the beginning of the season on a contender, can I buy like the James Winston production in my Superflex spot for a second? I'm, that's okay to me. But yeah, there's just not the stability of the value is not there to be something a second. That's what I'm saying. So even though he's producing like this and he's a starting quarterback, the answer is just going to end up being no matter how. many of these trades I rattle off pretty much, except for
Starting point is 01:45:10 a couple actually. The answer is going to be just draft them in a startup, right? If you want to acquire at this point, that's probably going to be the best. But we do have some ones that I would take Winston. We got Romeo Dobbs and a 254th or Winston. I would just take James Winston. Contender
Starting point is 01:45:26 or not. I would send Dobbs to the sun if I could. Dobs's been kind of good the last month. Yeah, I'll happily send Dobbs into the sun. I'm good. I'll take the court. Is, yeah, is Dobbs ever going to matter or like see your no see your starting lineup in
Starting point is 01:45:41 this is the how many starting lineup spots look I've just I got to lay this 12 leagues during this my week that I would fucking kill for Romeo Dobbs yeah start 12 leagues are for insane people but just to begin with however I will just say we do this every four weeks with a Packers wide receiver Jane and Reed Christian Watson now it's Dobbs
Starting point is 01:46:04 it was Wix for a couple of weeks there's just like for spans of time, one receiver on the Packers goes off. And we're like, he's the guy, let's buy. And then it's like three weeks of it being somebody else. He's going to probably be a guy that runs 90% of the routes for Jordan Love
Starting point is 01:46:24 for probably the next six years of his career. Like he's, I guarantee you he's going to get extended. It's going to be for more money than anyone thinks it's justified. And we're going to do a 24-hour tweet cycle about it. You said in the last four weeks? 8.5. 2.7 points, 2.7 points, 6.8 points, 10.2 points.
Starting point is 01:46:41 And then he had two games where he had a 19. 19.9, which is really good. Two touchdowns, by the way. And another game where it was 10 targets, eight catches, both way long season highs for 94 yards versus Houston. And he has been more than replaceable ever since. That's what I mean. He had like two squeaky wheel weeks. We've fallen. You guys just think Winston's more valuable than I do, I guess.
Starting point is 01:47:04 Like, I don't, I think. The possibility of Winston's starting on a week-to-week basis and putting up what he did. So's Romeo Dobbs. Even more so. He is one of 50 receivers I could give you the exact same thing on a week-to-week basis. Like, Dobbs isn't anything. Until we have a defined, like, number one guy in Lafleurs. Lafleurs.
Starting point is 01:47:27 Dobbs is just like a guy that you can flex if you have injuries and buys. Yeah. And I value a high-scoring potential. backup quarterback just as much because those are harder to come by. Good luck buying Winston right now. Like in leagues where you might need him off of somebody that has them, you're getting, you're getting price couched.
Starting point is 01:47:48 Like it's just going to happen. Well, no, not by you. Naturally by you. I've sold, I've sold like, I've sold like eight James Winston.
Starting point is 01:47:55 Like I would, I would sell for James Winston for a second as well. I wouldn't pay a second for Romeo Dobbs. No. Like I wouldn't, like, I'm not, you know what I mean?
Starting point is 01:48:04 so it's it's like what do you like what do you win when you win? I would not pay a second for James Winston either. Right. But that's that's what I'm saying. Like I'm, I might if I need to pay that second for James Winston, I'm for sure not paying a second for Romeo Dobbs.
Starting point is 01:48:19 Like if James Winston is a starting, hold on if James Winston signs back with the Browns, let's, we'll tack on. If James Winston is a starting quarterback on the Browns, right? And they're like, and they do the whole thing, hold on. And they do this whole thing where they're like, you know,
Starting point is 01:48:30 we really want to Sean to get back, you know, I don't care. I don't care about the Sean either. No, I know. I just, I have to lay it out. I have to lay it out, right? Let's just say they don't draft someone. They bring back Winston wins as the guy. They have Deshawn under contract, right? Like, that's how they go about this.
Starting point is 01:48:45 Let me set the stage here. Because obviously drafting the quarterback, that is like worst case scenario if they bring Winston back, right? Like, that's just is what it is. And they go, you know what? No, Deshawn, you're going to play. We're just waiting for you to get healthy. The Russ Wilson thing when everyone thought they were just like lying about Russ Wilson, not being healthy, et cetera.
Starting point is 01:49:03 so they could play Fields and Field was actually the starter because he played well. Like that could be their excuse to keep Winston starting. And now you just have the Brown starting quarterback. I would rather... In the like 98th percentile outcome
Starting point is 01:49:16 where James is signed by the Browns and literally the only quarterbacks on the roster are like him, Watson and Dorian Thompson, Robinson. I would definitely pay a second for Winston at that point. Right. And that's why I would rather I would rather him over a guy like Dobbs
Starting point is 01:49:32 on the chance that is that high level of the outcome that it might possibly happen than a guy like Dobbs. Brian did mention two years ago, Tom said to me Dobbs's ass, and he's pretty much been right. Overvalued Vanilla by week option. Shout out.
Starting point is 01:49:48 I mean, I agree with all of that, except for overvalued because he's not valued. Right, but I'm just like, you just said, like he's been good the last, he hasn't been good at the last four weeks.
Starting point is 01:49:58 That's a lie. You lied to all of us just now. It's just, It's just like how he has the preseason of his life every single year. Yeah, he's just that guy. I don't know how we got into Romeo. That's what I love about the show. We just go on like side tangents all the time here on the show.
Starting point is 01:50:15 But Winston is very viable. A lot of 25 thirds, right? I would pay that for Winston, especially it turned out you need. Like John Mechian, a fourth is on here from seven days ago. That's obviously not the price after yesterday. But yeah,
Starting point is 01:50:28 it is, it is very much so reasonable for you. to want to have him and prepare. If you can get him on the cheap, if somebody's holding him and wants to let go, to help you for 2025, because we latered a couple scenarios where James Wednesday can be the guy,
Starting point is 01:50:42 and there you go. He's your week one super flex option if something happens in the preseason because these quarterbacks, he's still got to make through a preseason, et cetera, lots of things happening. Just cheap quarterbacks, man.
Starting point is 01:50:55 You can't have enough of them. Look what happens. You get potential starters left, right, and center. I think there were two questions that I wanted to ask. All right. Answer. And then we're getting out of here.
Starting point is 01:51:08 Connor wants to know, how are you guys valuing quarterbacks with murky futures? Donald Winston, we answered Winston right now and in the offseason. Players like Donald and other murky quarterbacks.
Starting point is 01:51:21 I think Donald is very likely to be a team's actual starting quarterback next year, as in they have Donald and no other plan. I just think that he'll, he'll, command enough money that I don't think that a team will be able to justify adding more than a day three flyer with Darnold. I think he's going to get a deal that probably locks him in for two years.
Starting point is 01:51:44 So I can be wrong on that, but that's just my guess. I think he's unless like Stafford or Gino becomes available or something crazy happens, then Darnold, I think it's going to be pretty clearly the best veteran quarterback on the market. So I just think he's going to wind up being pretty secure for year one. So I would happily pay like early two type value for, for Donald. And I probably want to buy into the uncertainty a little bit with him. With Winston, yeah, I'm selling, I'm selling Winston. I think it's probably even over 50% that he's just a straight backup next year.
Starting point is 01:52:20 I think that most of the scenario where he isn't is that he's on the Browns. But I think that they would still add a guy in round two or round three. And Winston would be on a pretty short leash. And he's a guy that knows how to erode a leash. very fast because he throws a lot of interceptions. Yeah. So like the only world in which I'm comfortable paying it. I'll put it this way,
Starting point is 01:52:39 you're not buying Winston for less than a two now, most likely. And the only world in which I'd be comfortable paying a two for Winston is if we fast forward to June and I know that he's on the Browns with only him, Watson, and DTR. So it's like, and I don't think that's going to be the case. And if it is the case, I'll just pay a two then. I'll forego these next four weeks. Yeah, you're not wrong.
Starting point is 01:53:02 I want to buy the murky QB situations, but it's generally always cheaper to do in drafts. Right. Winston used to be free. Focus on the next James Winston. Like, the reason I'm selling all these winsons, I used to have a bunch of Winston's,
Starting point is 01:53:16 but that was because he was like literally fab, right? So it's different now. Exactly. I don't chase these guys if you don't have to. That's why we got Daniel Jones right now. Yeah, exactly. Yep, exactly where I was going to go with that. look it was baker a couple years ago we
Starting point is 01:53:33 smashed in on him and his price when he went to the Rams and he was outcasted we said bye bye bye and then we bought and now we just have him Rogers was a free square for a couple years gave you at least enough startable games anyway and no it next james
Starting point is 01:53:49 won't be levis because levis is walking the 225 the starting quarterback of Tennessee Titans uh we'll be that's in a couple years yeah give us when is how far are we fast forwarding yeah Yeah, let's, we'll start looking at Levis as the next James Winston by like week seven next year. But I think he's done enough to like keep it going.
Starting point is 01:54:12 At least this year. Anyway, just one thing. Tom, how do we eliminate luck from fantasy football? This is like a whole argument right now in a league that we're in. Oh, I know. Boy, it got dicey in a league chat today. Play best ball if you want to eliminate luck. Just get your.
Starting point is 01:54:30 What? Wait, don't do that. Definitely don't do that. Are you kidding me? Oh, okay. It's a dynasty show and then I never talk about playing your best ball because I think it's a scam. I was like, but what I think of a non-lock-based game, I've always thought of a 688,000 person tournament with like 30% of the prize money to first. That's why I would never play in such a fake, obvious Italian mafia scam.
Starting point is 01:55:01 Yeah, it's run by the mob. Like, that's exactly the type of thing the mob would run as they rake 50% somehow and no one can challenge them on it. Because everyone knows it, but nobody wants to... For the record, for the record, the rake is transparently published on underdog.com. Put the hat on, you go. Yeah, I commented that Jacob, Mr. Anti-establishment, a non-company man that could possibly examine.
Starting point is 01:55:31 this is repping big best ball right now with the hat which is why I expect to see him come up Jacob Sanderson is one 2020 24 bestball mania sure to tune into thinking for Gottlet content. Yeah exactly yeah you've sold your soul
Starting point is 01:55:46 and it's not a lock face game by the way Gottlett is entirely still yeah just funny that that kind of stuff happens in league chats for this person wants to lead now crazy for like one minute and I promise I'll keep it to one minute but please it's not basketball rant is it not of a bestball I mean it could be applied to any form of fantasy baseball
Starting point is 01:56:07 baseball adjacent but the idea of like eliminating luck from fantasy the false binary of luck and skill I like greatly aggravates me I would say the number one skill of fantasy football that is applicable to all formats dynasty redraft basketball DFS anything is leveraging and understand
Starting point is 01:56:30 the uncertainty of the game that we play. Yes. You are making probabilistic bets and trying to give yourself the slight edge over an infant number of simulations of how things can work out, and you're trying to take advantage of uncertain situations. That is the skill. So it is inextricable to me to look at a game that is inherently probabilistic and then say, well, can we take the luck out of it?
Starting point is 01:56:54 To take the luck out of it would be to completely change or erode the skill of the game, which is maximizing your ability to benefit from uncertain situations, minimizing the harm that you face from uncertain situations. That's the game. If you don't like that game, then I don't think you've identified the proper skill require. And I don't think that the game is for you. But that's what the game is.
Starting point is 01:57:19 There's other games that are not that. Play chess or something. Yeah, go play chess. That's exactly what I was just going to say. Yeah. No, I think, like, the most, Like eliminate luck thing that I support in fantasy leagues is like the extra game against the median. I think that's totally fine.
Starting point is 01:57:39 Yeah, nothing against it. Like the, the, even like the dynasty bestball leagues where it's like you're just playing weeks one through 17 or whatever, that's like boring. Like I don't get wrapped up in the outcome week to week. It just becomes very hard to see it as entertaining. And that I,
Starting point is 01:57:58 that's like why we want luck in all of our games in our in in real football that that's part of why it's entertaining like real football you're not sitting there watching like oh my god like this is so amazing that like magnus just did this line but he made like a weird fifth move or what it's it's not chess it that's not what's entertaining to most to most people I think it's certainly on to me. Yeah, I I understand what Brian's saying. So we hear the person talking about is more the luck of schedule
Starting point is 01:58:33 and is pro-median. We're pro-median people. That's not what it's about. It became... I'm actually not. A lot of people are like a lot, there's a lot of people that take this and I totally get where they're coming from on the like Institute Medians, Institute
Starting point is 01:58:47 you know, five and six are based on most points. All that stuff's fine. I don't have like a mass. This is not like I don't have a massive issue against it. But I kind of do like the more rigid thing where it's like, yes, one of the plausible outcomes is that you can score the most points in your league in this playoff. It's not a likely outcome, but that is plausible.
Starting point is 01:59:09 You should always have a plan in place for worst case scenario. The risks that you take should have consequences. Like you should be managing probabilities at all times. I just don't think that that is like inherently bad. I don't think that it's like the idea of like, ah, it's unfair. It's like, yeah, I have, I mean, especially if you play portfolio, like, maybe it's more tilting if you only play in one or two leagues. But like, I went through literally all my leagues today. And yes, there are teams I have that are like third or in points four in the league that are probably going to miss playoffs.
Starting point is 01:59:38 And that's annoying. But I also have teams that are, you know, weaker that are like fifth in points four that are going to get a buy. And these things tend to even out. And that's just part of the game is that you have to have a plan in place for both those outcomes. Yeah, the whole schedule thing. that's obviously been a matter of contention, really, in our home league with one individual anyway. Like, the randomness of scheduling is part of it.
Starting point is 02:00:07 You look at your schedule and you're trying to pick out your matchups and when do you have to make trades. It's all part of it to me. It's all part of the process. I don't care about the median. I play in leagues with it. I play in leagues without it. I cannot stand the six spot being for points.
Starting point is 02:00:23 win your matchups week to week and make the plans and set the right lineup. To me, I like the win-loss thing. I like that it's a right tie to game this year. You know, insane that is that I tied a game and I'm still holding down second place in that league. It is unheard of to tie a game in fantasy. Brutal, brutal outcome. But yeah, I'm with you guys. Like, it's the game is the game and the game as to why we love it, right?
Starting point is 02:00:50 Like taking away some of that is, to me, just taking out some of the, some of what makes it pure. Anyway, but I was down with you there, Brian, and buddy until, yeah, the conversation that happened happened. But let's talk about player picks
Starting point is 02:01:04 so we can get the hell out of here. I once again had a phenomenal week, and it didn't matter. Did not matter. A horrible week except for one dude. You did. Yeah, I am closing in on Lucas here for second,
Starting point is 02:01:18 thankfully. But aside from that, we're all still absolutely cooked by Jacob. If you're new to this game, each week we pick a quarterback outside of the top 15, a running back outside of the top 15, a wide receiver outside of the top 30, a tight end outside of the top 12.
Starting point is 02:01:30 We total up, we pick them based on their weekly projections. We total up the points at the end of the week. We tack it on. And by the end of the year, the winner of this little game gets to pick the drinks, the other hosts are, gets to pick the drinks,
Starting point is 02:01:46 the other hosts are going to drink during the live draft show. That is on after the Brett Whitefield, Scott Barrett, etc. A lot of fun. You're going to want to be there. We got a lot of calls right last year. You know, it matters. However, this year, it's already over.
Starting point is 02:01:59 799.1.6 points for Jacob. Lucas is the second was 661.86. I am in third at 633.72. I was winning at one time. And Ryan is at 59.9.9.4. Ryan's, you are going first. Let's do it. So quarterback is awful this week.
Starting point is 02:02:17 It's going to be awful in DFS. It's going to be awful everywhere. So we're going with Aidan O'Connell against the Buccaneers coming off like probably the best fantasy game of his career. Maybe he has to drop back 45 times again. Bucks have given up a lot to opposing quarterbacks this season. It will probably blow up in my face, but it was the least bad option. We're going to go with Garendo against the Bears. Just probably the best projectable volume.
Starting point is 02:02:49 Yeah, just 49ers. backfield got to play these guys uh sedrick tillman against the steelers uh i i don't even care to figure out who's going to get the joey porter shadow or whatever i i guess tellman's the most likely to get it uh but we're we're just going to roll with guys catching the ball from james at this point uh and at tight end i'm somehow came to the conclusion that noah gray in the 50 percent of the rishi rice role was my best option this week so yeah you know no tight end also rough this week. No,
Starting point is 02:03:23 Gray was my most rostered player for years. And I am happy that it's finally paying off. Oh my God. I'll go through mine here. Week 14, we're going with Winston. I'm chasing points. I'm nerfed a little bit here by Ryan.
Starting point is 02:03:40 So I am just hoping, hoping that it's Judy this week, not Tillman. I'm going to go dowel because this man has done really well the last couple of weeks. It's a good matchup. I think you could do pretty well this week relying on that volume.
Starting point is 02:03:55 I'm going to go with NWI, Mr. Touchdown himself. Him and Billy Jeans are going to hook up for a deep connection. Again, I feel it in my bones. Don't worry, that's how you absolutely know that he's not scoring this week. And the streak dies this week is because I've picked him. And I'm going to go with Goddard and hope he scores. Definitely not playing.
Starting point is 02:04:14 He's not playing? No, he's an IR candidate. Oh, an IR candidate. it. All right. I'll replace my tight end here shortly. I didn't know that. I'll replace the time. I am going to go. No, I'm not taking care. I don't care if he's got it injured. I'm never playing. Honestly, that's probably the most routes you're going to get out of any available tight end is. I would rather take the field. I'd rather take the field. I'll never fall up. Mr. Calton, know that you said that. He's going to inexplicably be 20% owned in DFS this week. Yeah, I'll leave him for you, Jacob. He can be, be, be,
Starting point is 02:04:50 There would be in Aden O'Connell. Look, he attended the University of Oklahoma. I'll take a weekly DFS podcast with Davis-Matic, which means that we spend like an inordinate amount of time on Grant Calcutara and his recruiting history and his medical retirement every single time that he's on the DFS slate. So at least six minutes of my Thursday will be spent with. And I'll be playing Grant Calcutera at 2.5. Um, so that's, I'll go forward to.
Starting point is 02:05:22 Um, yeah, I'll just take Cole Commet because they can both have a zero, but at least commit does have blow up games once in a while. I'll take commit. Uh, and Lucas isn't here. I'll read his off quick. He's doing really well. He's sitting in second. We got Cooper Rush against Cincinnati.
Starting point is 02:05:35 Tyrone Tracy Jr. versus New Orleans. Jordan Addison versus the ATL and not buck. Uh, and Chig Oconquo versus Jacksonville. Um, all right. I'm just going to fully admit that, um, Ryan's are not posted and I was picking mine as he was talking and I wasn't paying attention. So if I say one that Ryan already said, stop me.
Starting point is 02:05:58 So he's reading the short sheet for sure. Am I? I see all your picks. Yeah, I was going to say mine are definitely posted. His is definitely in there. But anyway, carry on. Really? Yes.
Starting point is 02:06:07 Why do I see yours and Lucas's? It's definitely on there. Anyway, weird. Because I see everybody else's. But anyway. Okay Will Levis still available? Yes
Starting point is 02:06:22 Good, all right I will take Will Levis I hate that you're in first I'll take Aaron Jones I'll take Devanta Smith and I'll take Dawson Knox Are those all safe? Oh yeah but I really hate
Starting point is 02:06:33 That you're in first And you do this every week You don't look at this portion Until the end of the week And you're in first And it's so infuriating True genius does not need preparation all right
Starting point is 02:06:47 uh yeah true genius uh in full form i might add as the hat now goes backwards like asch catch him but you know it is over ladies and gentlemen that's the show for today bunch of players a few bonuses a little bit of side ranting which is bound to happen i tried to keep it on the rails it wasn't my fault this time
Starting point is 02:07:06 but if you like this like this show like this episode on the youtube hit like hit subscribe leave a comment let us know what we missed uh had to change my two today so i didn't get any more uh, imposter allegations. I've already been told that I sound like Joe Rogan and I'd rather, uh, not have any more comparisons to weird podcasters, uh, made on my behalf. So I'm good with the, we'll now go with the tan tuk if you would or beanie, depending where you're from. Um, but that's going to do it for this podcast. Remember, Dynasty Points feed goes a long way. It helps us, if we start heading over that way instead of the
Starting point is 02:07:46 Fancy Points Now Feed. Remember that Market Report releases Friday morning and Sunday morning on the Now feed. Lots of content coming to you guys. Brett Whitefield next week talking rookies. It's about time. Oh, yeah. I cannot wait for that.
Starting point is 02:08:00 It is literally the earliest we have ever talked rookies on the Dynasty Points podcast, even with full tilt, et cetera. This is the earliest. We got one of the best in the business, if not the best in the business. Hoping on with us next week. Cannot wait.
Starting point is 02:08:18 Remember, this is a big week for you. Enjoy it. Enjoy the randomness. Enjoy. Last week of the best ball regular season. All right. With that, we're out of here.
Starting point is 02:08:28 Remember they're clear out of the full hearts can never lose your best days. Always spent tilting, but not on best ball. Good night, everybody.

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