Fantasy Football Daily - Early 2023 Good Vibes | Hansen's Hints Podcast

Episode Date: June 9, 2023

Nobody in the fantasy industry is more into body language and overall "vibes" than John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru), and while it isn't yet time for his famous Good Vibes/Bad Vibes article, John gives an early vibe check from OTAs and minicamps. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league -- like John? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle. From numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. What is up? John Hanson here. Another edition of Hansen's Hence here at FantasyPoint.com. Weekly podcast here. We do many weekly podcasts, but my little,

crevice in the fantasy points feed is going to be weekly and i think this is what third or fourth week i've managed to do three or four in a row early on here recording this puppy on friday afternoon june ninth and i thought it's a little early but we are starting to get a fair amount of news and notes coming out of the o t a's i'm starting very preliminary per preliminarily jesus uh to form my vibes on players. Obviously, it's not just the OTAs. It's the entirety of their situations, looking back at what they did last year. Where's the momentum coming out of last year?

A lot of times guys who are good or coming off bad years, they have a little extra push in the following season. So that's what I'm talking about with momentum. So I'm considering all kinds of factors, taking in all. these news notes and nuggets. I've already done projections. So it's really a question of seeing what we see, basically. We're starting to see some stuff out there in the OTA. So without any further ado, I'm just going to get right into it here somewhat informally. But I will start over in the AFC and not seeing anything particularly strong in the AFC east.

obviously in Miami, the vibes aren't good if you're looking at one of their running backs currently on the roster, at least as I record this on Friday, June 9th, that of course being Jeff Wilson, Rahim Moster, the rookie Devon A-Chane, all that. Dalvin Cook has officially been released from the Minnesota Vikings. This was an obvious team to connect him to, as I did, I think, in like January. When this first came out, Dalvin went to high school. He's from Florida. He's from Miami area. He went to high school like, I don't know, 10 miles from the stadium there. Of course, he did something on social media with a Dolphins uniform as well. However, I did talk with NFL insider Adam Schefter this morning

and doing the Sirius XM show with Adam Kaplan, who had similar sentiment. It's not a guarantee. It's not a lock. It's not like just a formality that the dolphins bring in. Dalvin Cook. Denver Broncos may have something to say and between the two Adams basically, Schaefter and Kaplan, there does seem to be another team or two that is lurking and could enter the fray there for Dalvin Cook. And by the way, mention Dalvin Cook, make sure you check out the article over at FantasyPoint.com. It is a freebie. It does not entail a login. If not a subscriber written by Graham Barfield. Dalvin Cook Cut what it means for Alexander Madison.

And I did update our projections, by the way, on the site to account for Dalvin being officially released. Not exactly all in on Alexander Madison. The article has a lot of good points. Now, I think the best point is that they are paying Alexander Madison a decent amount of money and they don't really have that much behind him on the depth chart the rookie dwayne mcbride is comically unproductive in the passing attack so it's basically between madison and tie chandler for the third down role and all that i do think tie chandler is a very good prospect you know his tape

was pretty darn good i did chop it up with him at the combine i i saw him out he was a good dude i liked him and the buzz is pretty decent on him. He's got juice, explosiveness, receiving ability like big time could line up outside, but he also hits it up in there and runs hard. So he's pretty darn intriguing here. So the vibe obviously improved on Alexander Madison,

but we are a little below the markets there. I'm still going to be a little skeptical to pass happy offense often because they have to be, because their defense once again this year, I think just like last year, is going to be bad, especially if they don't have Daniel Hunter on the roster. But back to the dolphins. Yeah, so not great there in terms of the vibes, but we shall see. It may end up being a moot point if Dalvin Cook goes somewhere else.

I know that DeAndre Hopkins also in play to work out with the New England Patriots, which I think would be a pretty decent acquisition, for them, but a little redundant as well, just gathering up a bunch of basically possession type receivers, veterans. Devante Parker's probably a little bit more than that, but he's getting up there in age. And Juju, of course. Couldn't hurt, but, you know, and he does have a chance to challenge for the playoffs, but, you know, they're not going to win anything in the AFC, which is the toughest conference by far. but there's that.

Obviously, when you look at his old team, as we've covered, I did a little video on that. So check that out on our YouTube page or hell it's everywhere. TikTok, Instagram. Michael Wilson, the rookie out of Stanford, good vibes with D-Hop off the roster. Certainly not the greatest situation overall. Although I will say I actually moved up Kyla Murray a little higher. I have a pretty good vibe on them, actually, in terms of not going, not being worthless for two months, basically. I think we're trending toward Kyler, perhaps avoiding PUP.

I mean, don't put words in my mouth there, but early on, the vibes were pretty good. But for Michael Wilson, they could not be better because he landed in an ideal spot once DeAndre Hopkins was moved off the roster. And as I anticipated that, I took him, I did a previous podcast. about that was last week, I believe, about the rookie draft that I did. I did, in fact, take Michael Wilson, I think it was the fifth round of a rookie draft in high-stakes, FFPC. So that was good. But good vibes there.

Back over to the AFC, nothing of note with the Jets, you know, Aaron Rogers. Good vibes overall, but a little bit dinged up. Breeze Hall, not exactly ready right now for, you know, on track for week one. in terms of a full workload and all that. We'll see. Yeah, not a ton going on there for the Jets, but we do have a lot of activity over in the AFC North. I don't think there's anything tangible vibe-wise

in terms of the Baltimore Ravens. J.K. Dobbins is not even at the OTA's final year of his rookie deal. But we do know that things are shaping up pretty well with the weaponry they have there and Todd Mocken and all that. we do have a little nugget there and by the way another article to check out tom brawley's 2023 oTA news tracker just following all the nuggets doing all the work for you at fantasy points dot com just look for that one there uh does have a nice little update there on the baltimore ravens about cuss edwards working off to the side john harbaugh saying he has not had a setback since

last season so he looks like he's solid as the number two lamar jayette Jackson talking about running less, throwing more under Todd Monkin, good stuff there. Rashah Bateman practicing at the start of the OTAs. Tough call there as to which receiver is the most ideal. I think it's between Bateman and Flowers. I'm not going to fall for Odell Beckham, the old banana in the tailpipe. But our guy Kaplan has told me multiple times that Beckham, despite the second ACL, when he worked out for teams, he ran really, really well.

So solid vibes there. But moving on to Cincinnati, I spoke with Jeff Hobson this morning as well, who is a pro NFL writer, basically, beat writer, covers the team, works for the official team website. He's been around. He knows what's up. Pretty damn good vibes there overall. He's really optimistic about the office of line.

and they have probably their best group and their best depth in a while. He also told me that Andre Yosevis from Princeton is showing really well. So Joe Burroughs supporting cast and Irv Smith, good, decent vibes there too. So they are in much better shape than they were last year. I could argue that they're receiving cores and proved, you know, the totality of it by like 25% because Irv Smith is an upgrade over Hayden Hearst

and no offense to Trent and Irwin. He did a fine job last year. By the way, that's another guy who's a very capable body, but they still did draft Yosevis who's a big dude gives them size. I think he could be a red zone beast. However,

I did notice watching in practice that the hands are a little sketchy. And then sure enough, they did the measurements a month later at the combat, he came in with some of the smaller hands at receiver. But he does move pretty well. He is a big body. He could be a good red zone thread if he does, in fact, catch the ball. But good vibes overall there for the Cincinnati Bengals. If things go well, Joe Burrough should eclipse his 40 touchdowns from last year, very quietly with 40 touchdowns.

Very good vibes early on with these Cleveland Browns. Deshawn Watson has been my. number one ROI candidate at quarterback, my top target this year, like to hold off a little bit this year. But, you know, you can get top five results from Deshawn, I believe, who is the QB9 off the board right now. Very good vibe on Elijah Moore is lining up all over the place. Boy, does he look like he's on a mission? Marquis Goodwin making some plays. so they have some really good depth here for Deshawn. So good stuff there.

I keep talking with my guy, Nate Zaguro, the color commentator for those Cleland Browns. And he's always optimistic. There's no doubt. But boy, he's a giddy at this point. Well, I'm giddy about the Pittsburgh Steelers with very good vibes. Everything has improved. As I've mentioned a million times, I've done videos on Ken Pickett. They're going to come out.

but I saw a little nugget from Patrick Peterson that was somewhat eye-opening. Obviously, Peterson has been around. He knows the deal. He knows when you see a player out there and you're going up against a player who's more of a difference maker than you thought maybe it stands out. And he was kind of going on and on about my guy, Calvin Austin, who suffered really an injury-plagued rookie campaign due to this foot injury, season-ending surgery. And, you know, granted, Patrick Peterson basically struggles to keep up with anyone at this

point because he doesn't run all that well. But, man, he was, I'm always, I always notice when another player is kind of blown away by a dude. Like, we're all blown away by what these athletes can do. but when a guy like Patrick Peterson, a pretty accomplished player is like, damn, I think we need to stand up and take notice.

And that's basically his reaction to Calvin Austin, who I set up an interview with at the Combine last year because I watched him at the senior ball. I was like, my God, this guy just makes dudes look silly out there. And he's small, but man, he is a great kid. Football player. I talked to Steeler. insiders during the season.

Jerry Doolock comes to mind. I kind of, you know, theorized to him or I throw out of thought basically on Calvin Austin after the season concluded that he would have been a real nice guy to have around and he was like,

I basically pumped him up as a prospect and Jerry Dulek was all about it. He was totally with me. So we're not going to draft Calvin Austin most likely, but man, he could be a guy who catches like you know, 22 balls for like 500 yards and really, you know, lifts the lid off the defenses, helps out in terms of Najee Harris running the ball, opens things up underneath for the other guys.

I mean, it's a wonderful situation here. Other, of course, than Matt Canada, the office coordinator. It's just, I've never seen anything like this where it's like, man, I am so optimistic. If only we had a damn coach who actually called good plays, basically. But maybe we can take a little step forward. But it almost doesn't matter, given the cost of a guy like Kenny Pickett. I'm totally convinced he's going to be a top 20 guy, yet he's only like QB 27 off the board. Alan Robinson here.

I mean, it doesn't hurt. He's working out of the slot. He can win quickly. That's about it, though. After 10 yards, he's not very valuable, but he will get open quickly and he'll be a little bit of a move the sticks kind of a guy for Kenny Pickett. Cannot hurt. Moving on here, looking at early vibes here in 2023 over in the AFC South. Well, I mean, we'll see about DeAndre Hopkins potentially going to Tennessee, but I was not in on Traylin Burks last year, but the vibes are good.

I mean, you could just see it on the practice field, his body language, he's feeling it right now, he's a lot more confident. And presuming we don't get DeAndre Hopkins, yeah, it's a low-volume passing attack, but he's going to be commanding a very high percentage of the looks, I'm sure. And compared to the other wide receivers here, you know, 25% target chair for Trailer Berks. So really good vibes there is he's completely over the asthma issue. He reported in really good shape. So it's almost like night and day compared to last year. And as bad as it was last year, we didn't like him. I didn't like him.

You know, he did have a couple of moments where you're like, okay, I think he's a little rough around the edges. But you can see there's a lot of talent to work with there with Trailing Berks. So for now, looking good, as is Chiggy Akonkwo. Nothing of note otherwise over in the AFC South. So I'll move on over to the AFC West. I've had a pretty good vibe on Russ Wilson. Hell, even going back to last December,

when I tweeted somewhat sarcastically, but I ended up being correct, that boy, wouldn't it be like Russell Wilson after you had that one big game in like week 13 or whatever against Denver? Wouldn't it be like Russell Wilson to have one of the worst seasons ever in the regular fantasy season

that was seen from a high-end quarterback only to ball out in the playoffs? And that's actually what he did. He was, I think, QB4, the final like five weeks he didn't miss that one game with the concussion it was a little fluky but good vibe with john peyton and pretty good vibe with russ leaner slim trim that's how you offset age i guess you know he doesn't move around as well and escape as well well you got you got to cut down on the poundage a little bit and that's exactly what he's doing so i i'm very convinced that russell wilson

It may not look pretty, but I think he's going to outproduce his ADP by a significant, somewhat significant margin, which is obviously the complete opposite of last year, in which he had no chance to perform up to his ADP over in KC. Nothing riveting. By the way, Sky Moore, people are still like completely doubting it. You know what? Don't care. I'm given a middle finger to all the doubters because I still believe that Skymore is a quality player who will carve out a significant role in this offense.

I am not counting on Cadarius, Tony. I do not think Rishi Rice is going to explode out of the gate because he'd be the first Andy Reid receiver other than maybe Deshaun Jackson to do it. And MVS stinks. so they do have other guys here, but they're guys. Justin Watson, Richard James will see about. Justin Ross, who is very talented, but I don't have a lot of confidence in him. So yeah, same old story with Skymore. Obviously, he has to do it.

And obviously, part of the appeal is the fact that he's a very late pick. But I'll do it. I will do it. And I'm still feeling it for what it's worth. otherwise here over in the AFC West. I mean, we're kind of talking good vibes here, so I guess we'll pass over the Raiders because there aren't many good vibes.

Decent overall vibes for the LA Chargers, nothing of note here. Quentin Johnson seemingly off to a pretty good start, making some plays. I'm talking about they're going to attack down the field. I do feel good about the Chargers overall, but not like we're locked in here with these great, great vibes,

like tangible vibes. Of course, it is only the OTAs. Over in the NFC, let's take a look at some vibes here. Well, I think we're all on standby, if you will, and we're holding off until we get the update on the running back situation. I feel like one of the few dominoes that we need to see fall to have a pretty complete picture, at least heading into training camps, would be Ezekiel Elliott, they're not going to go into the season with just Tony Pollard and Deuce Vaughn and Malik Davis and Ronald Jones. Unless Ronald Jones has some sort of like shocking ascension or return to form, if you will. I don't think he was ever that good. But I do think Zeke Elliott, the odds seem good that he'll be back in Dallas.

So we shall see there. Decent vibes overall. I mean, Michael Gallup is, is healthier. Actually, Jalen Tolbert. has had a positive offseason, that bodes well. So their depth, even though they lost Noah Brown, their depth looks pretty darn good there in Dallas. Gallup saying he is, quote, springy again.

And springy is usually a pretty good sign. Nothing of note in Philadelphia or with the Giants, D.C. commanders. Nothing riveting, although I did have an opportunity to talk. with head coach Ron Rivera. And he did talk a lot. And it's kind of come out since, by the way. He did talk a lot about Antonio Gibson, the former college slot receiver being a pretty big factor in the passing attack.

They really like him in that role. They did a good job last year. Ron Turner or Scott Turner, that's his uncle, Norv's son, did a good job using him in that role once Brian Robinson was rolling. But we should have confidence in Eric B. enemy to pick up where they left off and even expand it out. So we have Gibson a little above the markets. We're all pretty high on Brian Robinson too, though.

As Rivera told me that they're going to try and get him the ball in the passing attack on early downs a little bit. The other nugget would be Sam Howell and Ron Rivera has full personnel control. And while it is a new ownership group, he is in dire need of a winning season or else he could lose his employment there. So if Sam Howell is not getting it done early, they're going to pull the plug because Jacoby Brissette is making decent coin and he's coming off a very good season. So I am not expecting much from Howell.

Maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised and he'll hold Brissette off, but not counting on it. He's talented in many ways, but he has some clear deficiencies as well. leaves a lot of plays on the field, doesn't really throw with anticipation, touch timing, and all that kind of a see-it-and-throw-it guy. But he is very competitive. He will run and add some second-reaction ability. Over in the NFC North, well, certainly the vibes got good for Alexander Madison and Ty Chandler now officially on the radar as a deep sleeper. And we'll see about Dwayne McBride. in Green Bay early good returns on Luke Musgrave that's good it could be completely meaningless but

I'd rather get good nuggets than no nuggets or bad nuggets for a young tight head in Green Bay good vibe early on Romeo Dobbs so I'd say overall we're feeling okay about the Green Bay Packers Dobbs generated a decent amount of ink here in early June in terms of just people react acting off the OTAs and the like here. Anything else? Nah, not a ton here. For the Chicago Bears? Yeah, it's nothing of note.

Kaleel Herbert is working as the one early on here, but Deonté Foreman has not yet participated, and Rocheon Johnson is a rookie. Obviously, we know about adding DJ Moore. They're working on Justin Field, to improve, we'll see. I'm not really feeling great about him at his ADP. It's a very pricey ADP.

I'd rather take a guy or trust a little bit more in terms of winning from the pocket, like Trevor Lawrence or Deshawn Watson. Like I'm taking Watson over Fields. I know Fields will out produce them on the ground big time, but obviously Watson is a way better passer with better weapon. Darnel Mooney still working his way back from the ankle injury, but we are on track, I believe, for training camp. I like them still in that number two role.

People who were accusing me this week of overselling Mooney. Well, I mean, we got it right the first two years. We're way ahead of the markets. Last year was weird, but as I've said, I had him at wide receiver 20. If you take away those first three games where I don't know what the hell they were doing, I mean, Mooney got like five targets total. You take away those three games.

You're looking at seven healthy games. And it was a bad offense. Mooney was wide receiver 22. So I don't know if that's a bad job on my part. It wasn't a win, wasn't a hit, but I'm still in on Darnell Mooney. Ideally cast as a number two now as well.

In Detroit, we did get a little injury there with David Montgomery early in the OTAs. Jamir Gibbs seems to be doing a pretty good job. And he's running with the first team offense here for Gip. So that's certainly not a bad sign right there. But, you know, nothing serious about David Montgomery, of course. I think we're waiting until training camp. But right now we're not going to panic about any little bumper bruise. in June. NFC South, nothing to sink your teeth into really in terms of this squad.

It's more about, okay, just take a look at where they are compared to last year, feel pretty good, at least a slight quarterback upgrade there with Desmond Ritter. Kyle Pitts has been absent from the OTAs, a voluntary OTAs, but they're not rushing. rushing him back. They are all expecting him ready to go for week one. But, you know, it is slightly concerning that he's not doing team drills, six months removed from the MCL surgery. But we'll see where we are in August.

Carolina, Bryce Young, working with the first team. Off to a solid start. Nothing riveting here. Nothing of note. Moving on to the Saints, though. You know, Michael Thomas working off to the side. Had some hardware removed from his foot. They're hoping that he'll be at full speed for training camp.

We'll see. But otherwise, the vibes have been very good on their other young receivers. Chris Alave, Rashid Shaheed, my guy, and Joanne Johnson. Shaheed and Johnson seemingly continuing to ascend. We hope that Derek Carr can play relatively well because he's certainly capable of getting these guys the ball. So right now we're off to a pretty good start. I have nothing on Alvin Camara, though. Over in Tampa Bay, I did have an opportunity to talk for about a half an hour with my guy,

Rashad White last week, one week ago today. Good stuff there. Check my Twitter feed for some retweets. But, you know, one big takeaway is he's expecting a lot of passes as we all have been. they're going to do a lot of empty with them so he can line up on the outside and win. He talked about how he's always looked up to Levi-on-Bel and his ability to do that. Man, he went on and on about his hands and why they're so good because I told them, I'm like, dude, got some of the best hands I've ever seen on a running back.

So yeah, great kid. He's one of my favorites, obviously, if you're listening to me. I predicted everything that he did, basically. Here we are. And this is exactly where I thought and hoped he would be a year after being drafted. He did produce. I thought he would be a top 30 guy. He was barely, but he was.

And now Leonard gone. So get him. You know, just hope that the team doesn't truly stink with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Chask, which is a possibility. But I'm feeling pretty good after talking to Rashad about Dave Canales, too. The one thing he kind of said was, I mean, I don't think he was throwing Byron Leftwich under the bus, but I was like, Dave Canales, a little bit of a running game guy. And his response was, well, he's not going to abandon the run.

And granted, they didn't run it well last year. So it's understandable why Byron Lefich was abandoning the run. But Dave Canales, not going to do that. He comes from Seattle and P. Carroll. So, you know, he's never called plays. They're going to run the Rock plenty. So Rashad is going to get opportunities in a passing attack. And, you know, he caught 50 balls last year behind for net.

So the guy's got to be a candidate for 60. I mean, I conservatively have him with 58 and we're still way ahead of the markets there. So that's a good vibe. Good vibe on Chris Galwin, too, who's getting back and getting some of the explosiveness back. And by the way, if you notice, you know, a lot of these good vibes, this has always been the case. like we're way ahead of the markets on all these guys in like may and june and then and we're almost predicting the good vibes that unfold later in the year so we're way ahead and i feel really good but then more and more and more information comes out in june and july and of course

august more people get engaged and then almost everybody knows everything and then the markets catch up to us. So that is a little frustrating, honestly. Like a good example last year was Romeo Dobbs. Like I was talking a guy up in May as a really good fit and all that and good sleeper, you know, 175 picks into a draft. But by the time we got to mid to late August, like the cat was out of the bag. So that is a little frustrating. But back to the task at hand, which is accounting for all the vibes.

One more division to go through. The NFC West. Well, I did address one thing with Michael Wilson. at the top of the podcast here. San Francisco 49ers. What I was also going to say is if you notice on a lot of these good vibe guys, right now we're way ahead of the markets. But check back in two months we might not be.

But Brandon Iuke, and that's why it's frustrating, but Brandon Iuke is a really good example because we've been way in front on him. Let me pull it up here in terms of where his ADP is. Okay, so his ADP is 59 overall wide receiver 30. Okay, see, it's already moved up. I mean, it's literally already moved up since like yesterday, because he was, I believe, a little higher than this. Or we were way higher than the markets than this.

Wide receiver 30, and we have them at 26, but I'm telling you right now, he was like, I don't know, a wide receiver 34, like a day or two ago. But we're still ahead of the market. The vibe is good. Debo, of course, reported to us all, I guess, that he was a little overweight, out of shape. He was awful. Per him, he was sluggish and all that good stuff. And once again, Ayuk was their best player during the OTAs.

I mean, Iyuk is getting to the point now where he's almost unstoppable because he's so fast and physical at the line you just can't jam him. And then you can't run with them. They picked up the fifth year option. I know there's only one ball here, but man, he is bawling out there. And well, that does bode well for Brock Purdy. Right now, your presumptive starter in San Francisco. Otherwise, we'll see about that quarterback battle. Is there even a battle?

But between Trey Lance and Brock Purdy, it's not an awful situation in San Francisco. And, of course, they're loaded Seattle. I mean, you might have seen the. highlight of JSN running for a long touchdown. I mean, in the OTAs, I mean, the guy ran in a straight line. Okay. Still think he's overrated in terms of the markets because his snaps and targets are just not going to be to the level of his ADP.

Basically, 60 overall, nah. But hey, off to a decent start for sure. And then last but not least, L.A. Rams, you know, good start in the OTAs for Puka Nakua, for what it's worth. Our guy, Brett Whitefield, saw a little Justin Jefferson in Puka, Nakuwa. So that should be a little eye-opening. I like Van Jefferson because I was told by multiple people, Adam Kaplan, being one of them, who was at their camp, that they were expecting a breakout year from Van Jefferson last year.

But then he had that very serious knee injury. He is back now. And presumably the number two, I think he's got a shot to deliver. a pretty solid ROI and Cooper Cup fully expected back. Kyron Williams potentially in this mix, but it should be, I believe, Cam Acres. So decent vibes right there in L.A. And, well, that is a wrap on my early look at the vibes here in 2023. And while it's early, we're still in June.

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