Fantasy Football Daily - Early Super Bowl 56 and 2021 MVP Odds

Episode Date: February 11, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) and Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley) are back to recap the Buccaneers demolition of the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV before talking about the Matthew Stafford trade and the upcoming off-season QB carousel. The guys then jump into the initial odds for Super Bowl LVI and the 2021 MVP and they give some of their favorite potential wagers to end the podcast (20:30). --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by Fantasy Points.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Every week during the regular season, Tom Brawley and I, my name is Joe Dolan, by the way, we did these weekly waiver, wire and injury podcast. Dr. Edwin Porras was on them too. And during those podcasts, I think I started everyone by saying, well, we've made it through a week. And then we made it through two weeks. And then we made it through two weeks. And then we made it through 15 weeks of the 2020 NFL season.

And now we've made it through the entire thing. The NFL might have been rockheaded. It might have been steadfast in powering forward no matter what was happening with COVID-19. In a cynical way, we can be thankful for that. Certainly my mortgage company is thankful for that. but I'm glad that we've managed to make it through the 2020 NFL season here at Fantasy Points and the Fantasy Points podcast. And I'm glad that hopefully we have a normal-ish 2021 season to look forward to. That is down the road.

We'll look to that. But first I want to welcome in Tom Brawley here on the Fantasy Points podcast. Tom, this is kind of old school for us. We're back on Anchor.fm, our old platform where you and I did the Fantasy Free Agents podcast. and, you know, there's something nice about that, kind of doing it on your own. And we did it on our own for a year and we had a lot of fun. I know we have some fans who miss the everyday podcast. Of course, we have other responsibilities now.

But it's good to be here, kind of be able to take a step back. Look at what happened in the 2020 NFL season, Tom. And certainly look at what happened in a Super Bowl, Super Bowl 55, that part in my French, Tom, was a complete ass with it. Yeah, it was. I thought it might happen that way with the offensive line issues for the Kansas City Chiefs. But, you know, I'd be completely lying if I, you know, told you that it was going to be that lopsided and that, you know, just that the Chiefs wouldn't score a touchdown. I saw the odds, man.

60 to 1 that the Chiefs wouldn't score a touchdown in that game. And, you know, it'd have to be a slightly crazy to even bet that side. You know, obviously they settled for the three full goals. Mahomes gave him a couple chances with the passes towards the goal line. Darrell Williams couldn't come up with one, Tyree Kill, the other. But, you know, even with those couple chances, the Buccaneers felt in control the entire time. They even got, you know, stopped at the goal line there on the fourth down play with Ronald Jones at the goal line in the second quarter. And it didn't matter much.

They just went right back down the field, got the second. stop short field and scored the touchdown. So it was a complete butt kicking, as you said. And I thought it was pretty funny that all the touchdowns, you know, they all came from kind of the All-Star team there that they went out and got Tom Brady. They got two touchdowns from Rob Gruncowski, touchdown from Leonard Furnett, who was obviously cut by the Jaguars before the season. And then Antonio Brown, who was basically out of the leg for the last, you know, one and a half years. So, you know, it was all the guys that were kind of cast off and Brady and company recruited to come, come play with them, and they all scored the touchdown. So I thought that was pretty funny.

You know, that that was how it all kind of played out. Well, we want to maintain our family-friendly rating on Apple Podcasts. So I don't want to, I don't want to bring up what our Pittsburgh group chat. I mean, I'm the Philly guy in our Pittsburgh group chat, but everybody else. I beat them in the Super Bowl. No, oh, yeah. Oh, you're going to Pittsburgh angle with Antonio Brown. Well, I'm going with Antonio Brown. I don't want to say what was said about that,

but either Antonio Brown or Levi-on-Bell was getting a ring. Bell didn't play. At least I didn't see them out there. Antonio Brown contributed, though. So, uh, well, congratulations to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom, we have all kinds of free agency stuff to kind of prep. And we'll get to that over the next few weeks here on the Fantasy Points podcast as we look to the 2021 season.

And we'll talk about some of the key free agents that Tampa Bay has. All of a sudden, Leonard Fournett is a key free agent for Tampa Bay. Obviously, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin is a key free agent. With Tampa Bay's cap space, I would be shocked not to see at least one of those guys back. Could Kansas City look to improve the number two receiver spot opposite Tyree Kill? All kinds of things we'll look to in this offseason. And I hope you guys follow along with us at FantasyPoint.com. where you can get in on our early bird special for 20% off.

We have so much content coming to you. Tom, though, we'll continue to talk about these two teams as we head into the offseason, Tampa Bay and Kansas City. By the way, your unders really hit in that game, except for the run game. Edwards Allaire, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournett. Those overs hit. Gronk, Leonard Fournett in the passing game, and Kelsey in the passing game, but everybody else's unders hit.

went under. It was an under Super Bowl. Yeah, it was a big Super Bowl for the sports books. I know last year was a big win for the public. You know, not a big win. You know, the sports book still made a little bit of a profit last year from last year's game with the Chiefs winning that 31 to 20 game against the 49ers. But, you know, not only just that, just no touchdowns from the Chiefs. So you had all the, you know, anytime touchdown props, you know, you know, with Kelsey, Tyree Kill, you know, just just, just, just, not. of those and, you know, those are all, you know, people like to parlay those with, you know, receiving props. And, you know, it was just a killer for the public, the sports books. The bad guys,

you know, win again. They cleaned house. You know, I have a friend that was on a gaming control, you know, board meeting there yesterday for, for Pennsylvania. And they made out like bandits. So, you know, maybe we'll get a revenge next year. Maybe we'll get a revenge, you know, when we look at some of these Super Bowl props for Super Bowl 56, which have already already been released here this year. Well, before we get to the Super Bowl 56 props, we're going to talk some early MVP odds as well for the 2021 NFL season. I want to talk about a move that we didn't talk about in the past couple weeks on the podcast. That affects the Super Bowl 56 odds. Tom, and that is the Matthew Stafford trade to the Los Angeles Rams. Now, the trade is not official. The trade cannot be

until the new league year starts in mid-March. But everything indicates the trade's been agreed to. Jared Goff's already put out a letter thanking L.A. fans and saying, I'm glad to be in Detroit. But the trade is thus. Matthew Stafford goes to the Los Angeles Rams for two first-round draft picks in 2022 and 2023, a 2021 third round pick, and Jared Goff. Now, I have people on Twitter because I did this thing on my Twitter. account where I was like, if you think Matthew Stafford is not getting a first round pick, you are out of your mind. Well, of course, Jared Goff gets thrown into this trade and, and

the Twitter, the Twitter-a-di comes out to me and says, well, you know, the two first-round picks were to take Jared Goff's contract. No, they weren't. They weren't. Maybe they got, maybe they moved from a second third to a second one because of the Jared Goff contract. Maybe the third that was added in was because of the Jared Gough contract. But Tom, this is a trade that the Los Angeles Rams less need. Sean McVeigh clearly believe this trade puts them over the top for the Super Bowl. They believe the quarterback position has held them back the last number of years. And look, they don't value the first round picks.

They don't have one until 2024. They haven't made one since Jared Gough. That is staggering to me. There are laws in the NBA that you can't trade consecutive first round picks, by the way, because it hurts teams too much. So in the NFL, the Rams are just like blowing it up. They're like, we don't care. We need to keep this window open. We need to pry this window open with this elite top heavy roster we have with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and you got Woods and you got Kump.

And now you got Matthew Stafford. Tom, I'm glad less need exists. because he does things differently in a league and maybe in sports where sometimes the thinking process is just a little too vanilla from franchise to franchise. I am glad there's somebody like Les Sneed going for it because from an outside observer, this is a fascinating trait.

And I think we've gotten reputations here at fantasy points, mostly because of our association with Greg Kosell as Matthew Stafford defenders. I like Matthew Stafford. I think he is significantly better than Jared Goff. I understand the numbers don't necessarily bear that out. But I do believe Stafford is significantly better than Goff. I think this makes the Rams, from my perspective, aesthetically,

as a fun team to watch, one of the most fun teams to watch in 2021. And from a fantasy perspective, I am shooting my Rams to the moon. I think this makes them a much better fantasy team as well. Absolutely, and their odds jumped. Basically, they were sitting at like 22 to 1 before the trade. You know, now they're sitting in that 12 to 14 to 1 range. Third favorites behind the Buccaneers. Now, Buccaneers have jumped over the Packers after their playoff run,

you know, after they beat the three former Super Bowl champions and Drew Brees, Aaron Rogers, and Patrick Mahomes. So, yeah, I mean, Vegas agrees. I agree. This is going to open up different. avenues for this Rams offense to attack. You know, Jared Goff just hasn't been a great downfield passer here, especially the last two seasons. You know, Matthew Stafford has ranked among the best in downfield passing.

And, you know, my big question now is who's going to kind of be that guy? Is it going to be Robert Woods? You know, they don't really have that dynamic speed vertical threat in the offense right now. Maybe that's something that they really go after hard here, this offseason. and Jefferson, Robert Woods and Cooper Cup. They all kind of are similar to me. I think Robert Woods has more of the intermediate to deep potential in this passing game, but it's going to be fascinating to see how this offense looks going from

golf to Stafford. But, you know, yeah, Stafford, it had just gone too stale in Detroit. You know, they were progressing backwards. I saw you, you know, making fun of, who said it, Bruske, whenever he said, he couldn't hack it as a Patriots. Or maybe he just wanted to stay the hell away from Matt Patricia, who just ruined his last three years and, you know, is now on that Patriot staff again. I mean, just utterly ridiculous. It was Teddy Bruske, who said, Matthew Stafford, who by the way, said the one team that he requested the Lions not trade him to was the Patriots. And obviously

it was because of Matt Patricia being rehired by the New England Patriots. And Teddy Bruske's like, oh, he's not tough enough. And then, you know, you see like the dramatic miced-up. Steve Sable is on the miced-up Matthew Stafford from his rookie season saying, this is the most dramatic miced-up we have ever done. And basically it's Stafford throwing a game-winning touchdown pass with a shoulder, a left shoulder, was his opposite shoulder, that basically was completely dislocated. I mean, just, I mean, he is wailing in pain during this thing. And it's fascinating. But yes, Matthew Stafford is tough. I think he's underrated overall. But let's look at the numbers. He might be underrated, but he's, you know, it certainly looks like he's

properly rated around the NFL. I mean, there, you know, it wasn't just the Rams. There were multiple teams, you know, the Panthers were reportedly interested, Washington, Indianapolis, you know, anybody that is in really, you know, strong need of a quarterback was definitely in the mix there, was willing to give up a first round. And, you know, I thought you brought up an interesting point earlier about the first round picks. You know, we, we are kind of starting to see a little bit of a shift here, you know, and just the general philosophy here. We're going to see more here with Carson Wentz and, you know, maybe Sam Darnold being on the move. And just these quarterbacks are going to start demanding, you know, first round picks. Everybody's in,

you know, everybody needs their franchise quarterback here. And teams are starting to look like they're more willing to trade away premium picks to get proven talent already. So, you know, the thinking was always, hey, you trade out of the first round, you collect picks. And I, you know, I don't think that's going to necessarily go away, especially for these, you know, teams that are in the rebuild, like the, like the Lions here, who are tearing it all down. But, you know, these teams that are right there in contention, it's, it's no longer the couple of year, you know, they're planning out, you know, it's next season now with these NFL teams. They're, they're looking towards 2021 now. You know, they're not necessarily planning out to 2020.

23, 24. It is a bit of a different way of thinking right now. Well, let's talk about some of the numbers. While the baseline numbers from Stafford and Gough kind of looks similar here, I think you can make the argument that Gough has been propped up by McVeigh's offense. Now, Graham Barfield did a great piece on this trade at FantasyPoints.com, and I wanted to dig in just a little bit to one of the numbers that stood out to me a ton. Since Sean McVeigh took over as the Rams play caller in 2017, L.A. has used play action 32.6% of their dropbacks.

That is a league high. The next closest team is the Ravens at 29.8% and the league average is 23.9. So they use it way more than anybody else. And how about this? Per Sports Info Solutions. Over the last four seasons, Matthew Stafford's EPA expected points added per play action attempt

is 0.248, which is third best of 30 quarterbacks. Jared Goff's is 10th best at 0.182. Matthew Stafford on play action passes is 76% on target throw percentage to 69% for Jared Goff. Matthew Stafford's passer rating on play action 104.7, Jared Goff, 96.0. Play action is the foundation of the Rams passing game across the board. Matthew Stafford is not just better than Jared Goff, Tom. He is significantly better as a play action passer. and you can make the argument in a significantly worse environment than Jared Gosspin.

Yeah, I mean, now he gets to go to one of the most creative minds here. And, you know, things could really open up for him even more. And to take it a step further, you know, we're talking about just strictly the passing game here. You know, I think this is great news for Cam Acres. You know, you have a quarterback who is capable of thrown downfield, who's successful off play action. And we saw how good Cam Acres was in. December and into the playoffs there when he kind of carried the offense in those playoff games against the Seahawks and Packers now. So, you know, the ceiling is starting to really

open up for this offense. I'll be more aggressive with Cam Acres going forward. And, you know, this just bodes well for him as well. How well does this bode for the Detroit Lions and D'Andre Swift to get 300 touches this year, by the way? Oh, man, Dan Campbell won't help, you know, isn't going to hurt there either. He's going to, he's going to certainly feed him the ball, I think. But, you know, what do you think about the future of golf here? I don't think it's still out of the question that the Lions could really just completely tear it down, maybe see what they can get for golf. You know, kind of see how the market kind of plays out here for the quarterbacks. You know, it's going to be fascinating with the movement here.

The next piece will be once it sounds like in the next week, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a team or two, you know, after free agency starts. They feel like they're left out of the QB market that they might make a play for golf. And I could see the lines being interested in maybe moving him. But I could also see them going the other way. You know, they see him as, you know, a project here to see if we can build him up, you know, former number one overall pick. Obviously, you know, played at a pretty high level back in 2018 and, you know, maybe try to build that confidence back up.

I could see them going either way with Jared Gough here this off, you know, the rest of the offseason. I don't think they'd hang up the phone. Let's put it that way. But I mean, in terms of the Lions' offense, and this is why we're not going to get into a huge spiel about the Lions and several other teams, Tom, as we alluded to with the Buccaneers and the Chiefs earlier, free agency. The top wide receiver on Detroit currently under contract for 2021 is Quintes Cephas. Golodei, Jones, and Amandola are all free agents.

And frankly, I wouldn't be stunned if all of them left in free agency, seeing the writing on the wall for the Lions franchise. Yeah, I don't see Amindola or. Marvin Jones coming back. The big question is definitely Gulliday, because they have the power to franchise them, but do they really want to even franchise them? Would they, you know, rather him walk

and they get, you know, whatever compensation they would get for him? Would that probably at least a third round pick for the kind of production that he's put up here? And, you know, the way he kind of just didn't, you know, he picked up the injury, hip injury towards the, you know, end October, early November there,

and never really seemed like, he wanted to come back and play, didn't want to jeopardize, you know, his first free agency, Foreway ended up free agency there. So, you know, I don't know if there's a whole lot of interest for the Lions to even bring him back. So that's going to be the fascinating one. I mean, if, I mean, golf, you know, I don't even know if he's a top 200 player. If, you know, if he doesn't even have a Gald A or Marvin Jones, I mean, that passing game is just going to be all revolved around T.J. Hawkinson, you know, obviously I think the Lions would, you you know, dip their toe into drafting some of these, you know, a receiver or two early in the draft.

Obviously, they're going to have more picks available to them, you know, with the Rams third round picks. So, and from all indications, I haven't dunk too deep into the draft class just yet, but it seems like a pretty loaded class at receiver. So, you know, it's going to be tough sledding for Jared Gough. It's going to be a lot of T.J. Hawkinson in this offense. It's going to be a lot of D'Andre Swift, and I don't know who's going to be that third piece in this offense right now. Tom, we're back on Anchor FM. So what that means is Ben Kukhanis is back to doing a reads for us are from our sponsors. So let's take a quick break.

Give Ben Kukanis a chance to test out that fancy microphone. All of you guys remember it from the Fantasy Free Agents. Welcome back to the ad reads Ben Kukanis. Now it is time for him. All right. Thank you, Ben and Tom. Now we look to 2021. And we look at the Super Bowl 56 opening line report. We just touched on some odds here. You said for the NFC, you said Tampa Bay and Green Bay are the favorites. But the Rams are right there at plus 1,200. Tampa Bay 950, Green Bay, 1100. San Francisco at plus 1,300. Here's one I probably wouldn't touch at New Orleans plus 9, 9. I have no idea what's going on there. By the way, these are courtesy of Fandual Sportsbook. We have Seattle plus 2,000, Dallas plus 3,300, and then you get into Arizona, Minnesota, Philly, Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago, the Giants, the team down at plus 8,000.

And then a team we just discussed, Tom, pretty much off the board, the Detroit Lions at plus 12,000 to win the Super Bowl. This is not to win the conference. This is to win the Super Bowl. Tom, anything stand out to you about some of these early NFC odds to win the Super Bowl? You know, at the top, you're right. The first two at the very top that kind of stand out to me are the Saints one. 19 to 1 certainly looks like Drew Breeze is going to retire here. They have an awful cap situation.

We know that they're able to kind of just manipulate it and push the check back to next year. But, you know, this is a tough spot. But James Winston, you know, the indications are now that he might be the guy to be the quarterback next year. Taysam Hill obviously got the starts in the middle of the season, but it looks like they want to kind of continue to use Taysom Hill in that Swiss Army knife roll, kind of keep James Winston kind of insert him into the breeze rule. So, but, you know, those odds seem a little bit inflated. And the other one that's pretty interesting to me up top is the, 49ers, 13 to 1. It seems like they're already building in, you know, they probably got, you know,

probably not, but, you know, they may have gotten burned a little bit with the Rams, setting them at like 22 to 1 right before the golf trade. Probably didn't take a whole lot of action because, you know, the lines weren't out that long before the golf trade came out. But, you know, it seems like the 49ers probably should be in that 20 to 25 to 1 range. without Jimmy Garoppel, you know, with Jimmy Garoppolo in the fold, but it sure seems like they're anticipating the 49ers trying to make some sort of splash here. And we know that they have a pretty strong roster. It got decimated by injuries last year, but, you know, they should be back stronger than ever.

And they got some key contributions from some rookies last year in Brandon Ayuk. So, you know, definitely still a strong roster, but they're putting in there that they're going to get a quarterback here. Yeah. And you also have to keep in mind that, you know, I only saw a handful of them, but Twitter posts of guys who had 50 to one tickets on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl from last year, obviously pre- Brady move. And obviously they might have gotten burned a little bit on that. And you alluded to it a little bit earlier on the podcast, Tom. This is a sea change in the NFL. Teams are not, teams do not want to be stuck in purgatory.

Like, we're going to make moves for our quarterback. This is not anymore. No longer is it, oh, we have to wait around until we can draft our guy and we have to get lucky drafting that guy. It is not the case anymore. We've seen it with some of this, some of these quarterback movements, obviously with Brady, with Stafford in recent years, other trades as well. But also, you know, players becoming empowered. Deshaun Watson requesting a trade. I guess they say Wenz hasn't requested a trade, but he's made it known he's not happy. So what else is he doing? Russell Wilson was on the Dan Patrick show talking about, well, you know, I don't know if I'm available or not. And that was obviously a prod at the front office in Seattle. Like, hey, why am I not getting more power here? So I think the sports books are trying to account for these teams that like New Orleans, perhaps, Tom, that you look at it. Maybe it has a strong roster and just doesn't have that quarterback.

Maybe they're shorting the odds a little bit for those teams in the event they do get that quarterback. Yeah, and I think that's the right of proof. though, when you're looking at these odds, is to look at the situations where it is pretty strong already and maybe you just need a key piece or two to really change the odds in your favor. And he's got these teams in the 20 to 1 range and up, you're not going to get a whole lot of value at this. You know, they're not going to improve that drastically during free agency or not. But, you know, I'm looking a little farther down the board. My favorite, you know, in the NFC here, my favorite long shot, is the Washington football team. I couldn't believe how long their odds were at Fandall.

It's 80 to 1. Draft Kings has moved them to 60 to 1. I think Fandall has even moved them up here in the last couple of days. They won the NFC East and the second longest odds in the entire NNSA. It's just completely absurd to me. I mean, I don't know if they watched their defense play this year. I mean, it was a top five unit already. They have a superstar and Chase Young.

Montez Sweat is also, you know, one of the best, you know, it's the best, one of the best young duos in terms of Ed Rushers. And, you know, I think they're just, you know, maybe one or two big pieces away from being really strong contenders. And obviously that big piece is that quarterback. They gave Taylor Heineke a little bit of a contract boost this offseason, get them two years for $8 million. But they would like for him to be the backup. They made a play after Stafford. It sounded like they offered up a first round pick and some other compensation lost out. But it sure seems like they're willing to make a move.

And as you said, they're playing in that NFC East, which is not very strong. They have a chance to stack wins. And I like a couple of their key offensive pieces as well. And Terry McLaurin, who frankly has been held back his first two seasons. Have we really seen the best of him quite yet? and Antonio Gibson, I think, is going to really develop into a three-down type of stud at running back. And Logan Thomas was a bit of a revelation at tight end as well. So the offense has the makings of being a pretty good one.

And we saw what they could do on defense. So that is by far my favorite long-shot team in the NFC right now. Well, let's move over to the AFC then, Tom. And I don't think anybody's going to be surprised that Kansas City is. is the favorites win the AFC by far, by the way, plus 500, have won the AFC the last two years. Buffalo at plus 11, Baltimore at plus 1,400. And then the Cleveland Browns plus 2,200. And they did take the Chiefs to the brink.

So I know Mahomes got hurt in that game, obviously, but plus 2200 for Cleveland, Tennessee at plus 2,700. How about this? Miami plus 2,800. Again, is there Deshawn Watson odds built into that? I certainly don't think the roster's good, but I certainly don't think Tua is a plus 2,800 to win the Super Bowl in his second year kind of quarterback based on his performance this year. Indianapolis plus 2,900.

Interesting. Don't have a quarterback right now. And then Pittsburgh, L.A. Chargers, New England. Then the Raiders at plus 5,000. The Jets at plus 6,500. I wonder if there's some Deshawn Watson baked in there. Probably is because the next team is Houston at plus. plus 7,000, Cincinnati, Denver, and Jacksonville round out the bottom of the

AFC at plus 8,000. This one is fascinating to me, Tom, because we just talked about these potential quarterback moves baked into the line, and you can see it here with Miami, Indianapolis, New England, the Jets, all of those potential quarterback moves, to me, are baked into those Super Bowl odds. Yeah, and the one that stands out to me is India. 2,900. I don't think they've baked in enough that they're going to get a new quarterback. I mean, they've, they've certainly shown that they're going to be very willing to

make a move here to upgrade the position. Miami's, you know, they're, I feel like they're more dipping their toe in the waters here. They're going to, they're not going to break the bank. They, they still have a lot of draft capital. They, they think they probably can still build around two and maybe get another, give him another year to see what he has. But, you know, if the right deal comes along. I could see Miami, you know, pulling the trigger. But the Colts are the one team that, you know, I would be stunned if they don't upgrade the position, you know, Jacoby percent is the current top guy there with Philip Rivers retiring. But they also have a whole left tackle with Anthony Costanzo retiring. But they have a lot of salary cap wiggle room here. They, they, they're top six.

Last time I looked in terms of salary cap room. And they have a lot of salary cap room. And they have a lot of salary cap room. have a really strong roster to begin with. You know, arguably the best offensive line. You know, very intriguing offensive pieces. You know, we saw what Jonathan Taylor could do at the end of the season. I think Michael Pittman's going to continue to get better. You know, they do need to upgrade the receivers a bit. And the secondary got exploited a bit at the end of the season.

But I think there's some really strong pieces in that Colts, you know, in the fold there that if they're able to get a quarterback here, I would not be surprised to see them get to 20 to 1 odds, maybe even shorter here. So I see some value there. Yeah. The question is how much are the markets going to value Carson Wentz if he gets moved to Indianapolis,

which probably seems like the most likely move at this spot, Tom. Okay, so let's move from Super Bowl 56 odds to some MVP odds. And now I'm seeing these from Draft King's Sportsbook. And Tom, I don't think it's going to be any surprise. I don't know how deep you've dug into this. You've already written an article about the Super Bowl 56 odds, but I don't know how deep you've dug into this, but it's not going to be anybody's surprise that the top three MVP options on the board

are Patrick Mahomes at plus 500, Aaron Rogers at plus 800, the last two winners of the award, and Josh Allen at plus 1,300. I don't think that's a surprise to anybody. No, yeah, I think those guys are the clear favorites. Two of the last three, excuse me. Yeah, those guys are clear favorites, but, you know, the guy, you know, we touched on Stafford quite a bit here early. His odds have obviously skyrocketed up.

He's at 15 to 1. He's kind of behind the, Russell Wilson's also at 13 to 1 there. So he's now a top 5 candidate. It makes sense. A lot of times these voters, they like the new face and the narrative. Yeah, exactly, a narrative. He's kind of been the guy that's been stuck in Detroit and purgatory there

and three playoff appearances in 12 years. You know, the talent has always far. exceeded the results on the field. But, you know, now he gets put in the perfect spot here. Defense is going to be able to win them a lot of games. You know, if he holds up his end of the bargain as a as the quarterback here, certainly makes a lot of sense at 15 to 1. But, you know, these odds look really short in a lot of spots. I mean, you know, I'm just looking at some of the numbers and just thinking Derek Henry's at 33 to 1. He was at 7. I gave him out as a best bet, you know, last summer at 75 to 1.

I don't see him having a much better season that he had last year. Probably, I don't, I didn't see the actual end of the voting there. Probably finished inside the top five at the position for the MVP there. But, you know, Stafford is the one that sticks out at the top there. I would have been probably about 25 to 30 to 1 with the Lions here. But now he's snuck up into that top five here. Well, speaking of narratives, Tom, I see Dak Prescott and Deshawn Watson tied at plus 1,700. So, Dak Prescott coming back from injury, could Deshaun Watson go to Miami and lead Miami to a division championship?

You know, by the way, if I was Miami, I would make that move. I know that's a completely separate discussion. But that one stands out to me. Christian McCaffrey at plus 3,300 coming back from the injury. Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Tom. How about this tier at plus 4,000? Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, and James Winston at plus 4,000 to win the MVP. I see Taysam Hill down at plus 12,500.

So right now, the book is setting it, setting the line at James Winston as a starting quarterback for the Saints. Yes, they are. I mean, that's kind of the whispers here. And it makes sense to, you know, they're not going to give you a discount there. We've seen that the Saints offense can really put up some video game type numbers. And Winston's been a guy that's put up video game numbers. He put up a lot of interceptions, you know, along with it. But he's capable of putting up some big numbers there.

So there, the tea leaves are certainly indicating that he's going to be the guy that's leading the offense here going forward. Taysome Hill, his odds have shrunk. But, you know, looking down the board a little bit farther here, you know, You got Sam Darnold at 80 to 1. What that really pops out to me is Matt Ryan at 100 to 1. You know, still. Former MVP. That's what I'm thinking.

He's a former MVP. We've seen what Arthur Smith can do. I mean, Ryan Tannahill was basically left for dead by the dolphins. You know, what the Tennessee Titans give up. It was like a fourth round pick and a seventh round pick to acquire him. I mean, he was basically dead. and then he gets in Arthur Smith's offense with some talented guys, Corey Davis, A.J. Brown and Derek Henry, you know,

and his career gets a second leg here. And, you know, this Falcons team has been, you know, it's been a real struggle since that Super Bowl loss, you know, bottomed out here. But they have the fourth overall pick, 35th overall pick. You know, there's a chance for them if they decide not to draft a quarterback here to potentially, you know, further upgrade this offense.

Still have Calvin Ridley here. Hopefully, Julio Jones still has some juice left in those legs. So they do need to upgrade the running back position to make that play action threat a little bit better here. But 100 to one odds for Matt Ryan. I've seen, you know, we're looking way down the board here. But I think that is one that kind of stands out to me at the very bottom here. Well, you also have Jimmy Garoppolo at 12,500.

And again, now, you, you. said the Super Bowl odds for San Francisco, fourth in the NFC, baked into that is the fact that the potential that they get a quarterback. But their fourth in Super Bowl odds and their starting quarterback is all the way down the board here at 125 to 1 to win the MVP. That stands out to me. The Steelers were 11 and 0 before collapsing this year. Ben Rathlisberger is 100 to 1 to win the award. And Tom, when you're looking at these long shot odds, you always have to, what could happen. What might happen. Is there a narrative? Like, and I think there's a lot of people who profited from this with Lamar Jackson two years ago. His odds weren't this long. But Jalen Hertz at 100 to 1.

I don't think the Eagles are going to be very good, which is probably why Jalen Hertz is 100 to 1 to win the MVP. But what if Jalen Hertz comes out? The Eagles go 10 and 6. They trade Carson Went, which I think is going to happen any day now. They go 10 and 6 in a weak division. Jalen Hertz runs for 800. some yards and 10 touchdowns. Tom, there is a way, and when you're making 100 to one bet, you have to talk yourself into some of these things, but you pop five bucks on that. I think you can easily talk yourself into a scenario where Jalen Hertz is kind of the talk of the NFL if he just manages to get these Eagles on track after a very tumultuous 2020 season. Yeah, I mean, and the narrative will be there. You're right. You know, four-win season last year,

if they can turn around, six-game turnaround, get the 10 wins, maybe win the NFC East there. That's a very strong narrative. You know, Philly fans would, you know, he'd be the talk of the town after, you know, the Carson Lentz and, you know, the debacle there with Doug Peterson as well. So, and you've got to just look at the flat-out numbers.

He put up big numbers at the end of the year. A couple, you know, games where he threw up, you know, over 330 yards as a passer. Nobody saw that really. coming. You know, three straight games, over 60 rushing yards as well. So he put up some, you know, big numbers as a fantasy quarterback as well. And, you know, so if they just have a little bit of a turnaround, get to double-digit wins. And, you know, I don't think he's going to continue to put up 300-yard passing games like it's, you know, going out of style here. But if he has the Lamar Jackson

kind of season there where, you know, he's highly efficient as a passer. And, you know, he's, you know, close to Lamar Jackson in terms of, you know, rushing production. Yeah, certainly 100 to 1 is, is not, you know, not terrible odds here, especially, you know, this is one you probably don't want to wait around on because, you know, once that went straight happen. Yeah, once that went straight happens, you know, maybe he's down to 80 to 1, 75 to 1. Yeah. So I think they might start dropping anyway because, you know, people always look at these long shot MVP bets and are like, where can I get some value?

There's some value there. Tom, it's fascinating to look at, by the way, Sam Darnold at 8,000 to 1, or excuse me, 80 to 1, plus 8,000. I don't know about that. Same odds is Trevor Lawrence and Drew Locke. You know, I don't love it. But I do think that there is a possibility that he is traded somewhere where he could potentially have a lot more success. You know, he had a lot of stuff going against him with that offensive line with Adam Gase. Could they keep him?

What? Yeah, I wouldn't like that for his odds. I would love Washington or somebody else makes a play for them. You know, the Jets are kind of sitting there already at number two. They can get one of those quarterbacks. So, you know, I would want, if I was betting the Sam Darnold odds, I'd want him to get traded somewhere, you know, to maybe one of these contender-type teams to see, you know,

that would be quite the turnaround as well. So that's why I think those odds might be a little bit shorter there. There's some baked in, you know, potential there for him to get traded to a contender team. Yeah. So, I mean, Tom, there are some long-shot bets here that are interesting. But, you know, if we talked in February last year about putting money on the Buccaneers, because they, people might have called us morons, but the NFL is different now.

There is massive player movement every offseason. Frankly, Tom, it's a more fun league to follow than it was. I mean, shit, even 10 years ago, it's a more fun league to follow than it was then, because you never know what's going to happen. Turning on notifications for Adam Schaefter tweets could be worthwhile. at this point because there are still some moves to be to happen at the quarterback position and the odds are baked into that. Tom, it's going to be a fun off season. And I hope you're following along with us at fantasy points.com and the fantasy points podcast because we're going to be talking about

at all. I love it. You're right, Joe. We've always talked about it. That it's, it's a 12 month out of the year kind of league. But now it really, really feels like it. I mean, I'm sitting on Twitter looking for any quarterback news that comes out. So we're We're starting to get that little bit of that NBA type movement here where guys are kind of, you know, they're using their power a little bit more. And, you know, as you touched on with the Russell Wilson stuff, there, you know, a lot more of these, you know, faces of the franchise type quarterbacks. They want a little bit more say in what the franchise does. So it's making for a more interesting product, 12 months out of the year right now. For Tom Brawley, at Tom Brawley on Twitter.

I'm Joe Dolan. At FG underscore Dolan on Twitter. I almost said I was for myself. I don't know if that's a great sign off. For Ben Cucanus, back reading the ads. At B. Kukainis on Twitter. Follow Fantasy Points on Twitter at Fantasy PTS. Make sure you subscribe to FantasyPoint.com on the early bird special.

Get 20% off. We're going to have phenomenal dynasty content in the next coming months. Greg CoSell's draft guide. Wes Huber, our newest full-time hire. He's putting up Dynasty draft profiles. And we're going to be covering every angle from the offseason from both a fantasy and a betting standpoint. And I hope you guys are along for the ride at fantasy points.com. Thank you, everybody, for listening to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast.

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