Fantasy Football Daily - Every Week 5 Start/Sit Decision You Need to Make | 2026 Fantasy Football

Episode Date: October 9, 2026

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They want an elite stake for their family. This is what we're doing, right? Yeah. Um, yeah. Is that your Scott impression? No. You don't want to see my Scott impression. I hear everyone at the company has one.

I heard them laughing. I'm like, oh, Tray did a Scott impression. I'm like, oh, Trey, let me hear your Scott impression. It was like, I'm Scott Barrett. I'm very handsome and charming. That sounds exactly like me. I have a raccoon that lives under my deck. He sounds a lot like you.

No, if you want a Scott impression, just go watch Sesame Street. Get the Grover. Sharing is caring. I'm anti-sharing. That Grover is a communist. Week five starts sit on Fantasy Football Daily here on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. This is part two. We're doing the back half of the Sunday slate and Monday night football.

If you didn't catch yesterday show, We did the first half of the slate, so make sure you check that out. And listen, if you're a returning subscriber, you already know why this is the best fantasy football show and channel on the planet. Make sure you're liking the video. Make sure you're replying with your start sit decisions you need help with. If you're new here, though, which a lot of you are, don't forget to subscribe, turn notifications on. You'll never miss an upload from Scott and Brett. We're doing this every single day, helping you win fantasy leagues.

Also, if you're listening to this on podcast form, I strongly recommend. and YouTube. But if you're if you're too stubborn, you want to live in the podcast world, make sure you're following us on Spotify. Make sure you tap the link at the top of the show notes on Apple and hit follow there. All right, Scott, I'm very excited to get through. This is the good half of the slate. Yesterday we were in, we were in Garbage Land. This is the good half of the slate. It's still not great, right? But there's much more compelling matchups that we'll talk about today. Let's kick it off with the giant. Hold on. Whoa, whoa.

I skip pleasantries. I'm sorry. The people need to know how I'm doing. You can't break a routine like this. He's going to throw people into a tizzy. I know. Sorry. How are you today, Scott?

I am great and you want to know why I am great because I get to talk, Ball, one of my best friends, and I get a free elite expert cooking class at the end of it. That's true. Stay till the end for cooking with bread. I'm calling it, trust me, bro. Just trust me, bro.

Okay. All right. For those who listen to my other podcast first read, you're familiar with the segment. All right. So how are we, what are we doing? We're cooking a perfect steak. So that means well done. It's a prep.

This does not mean well done. Is that from dude? Where's my car? With ketchup. Anyways. Yeah. No, it's, it's going to be the practical guide. to cooking an elite steak.

And why do you get to do this? Why this is a fantasy football show? Correct. I want to bet, Scott. See, last week on this very show, you proclaimed that Jameson Williams would be under 70 receiving yards. I called it JMO breakout week.

Jamo indeed broke out. He hit over 100 yards. He actually won the bet in the first half. The crazy thing is, is you like to point out, he left an 85-yard touchdown on the board, too. And his day would have been a lot better. So I won the bet.

Your hatred for James Williams grows because now he's losing you bets. And so as a result, I get to, I get to, you know, do a cooking show. Yeah. Your true love. My true love. I am the primary cook in my household. I have four kids, my wife, and I get to cook. We're also on a very strict diet.

So, like, it's been a pleasure getting to learn this very strict diet. And I cook, you know, at least two meals a day, sometimes three, depending on schedules in the morning. So anyways, can we do it now? Giants at Commanders. Okay, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, cooking show at the end. Giants at Commanders right now, though.

It's a 1 p.m. game over under 43.5. Washington favored at home by 3.5. They do get their starting quarterback back in Jaden Daniels. Let's start on the giant side of the ball, though, with your G-Men. Obviously, we're calling James Winston to start beyond, or I mean a sit, whoa, 40 and slip. Beyond that, though, what do you got here? Yeah, it's also a pretty rough schematic matchup for James Winston. He's really struggled against the Blitz.

Washington Blitz is at the second highest rate over 50% of the time. Against the Blitz, James Winston averages 3.2 yards per attempt, a 59.7 pass rating, completion percentage over expectation, dead last. We have, or I should say, Chris's projections have Cam Scataboo as a start. That's probably right, but it's not one I'm overly excited about. He's dealing with a shoulder injury. we're still waiting to hear some details on that. His utilization was really not great up until that nausea fumble late in the game.

It was just a 52% carry share, only one target. He had just two of six red zone carries if you count the two point attempt. So it's he's a he's a sell high. If you listen to Wednesday's episode, you know that. But Washington, and on top of that, on top of that, Washington allows only 15.6 fantasy points per game to running backs. That ranks third fewest. It's they give up a ton of points, a ton of fantasy points,

but they're a pass funnel. Camps got to one might be too high. I get it. I get the ranking, but certainly not one I'm all that excited about. Malik neighbors and Isaiah likely, it's a different story. You saw last week just the volume so condensed

between the two of them came out to like a 67% target show. share, Malik neighbors. We finally saw a good ass from Malik neighbors. In the first three weeks, it was a badass. It was an average separation score at zero or negative. And then week four went up. It was like top 30.

It was pretty good. Washington is one of the top reverse slot funnels in the league. They're giving up the third most fantasy points per game. Or no, the most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. the third fewest to slot wide receivers. It's also a very favorable cover four friendly matchup. Neighbors is also better against the Blitz. So really favorable spot for him.

And then Isaiah likely, he has a 30% target share that doesn't just lead all tight ends. That ranks third among all players. Washington's giving up the fifth most fantasy points per game into tight end. So I don't think it's, I don't, I don't think it's,

uh, ideologically inconsistent or contradictory or whatever to say, yeah, James stinks. He's like our third lowest projected quarterback, but we're still somewhat bullish on these past catchers. It, that's a,

it's a really hard position to square for me. James looks terrible by the way. Yeah. Like, yes, to be, I guess this bullish on a tight end in a wide. receiver it's a little it's a little much but I Isaiah likely doesn't just lead all tight ends in

target share he ranks third he's behind only I think what is it now JSN and lamb which is just is just crazy he leads all players in red zone target share it's just an incredible role so at a at a gross position you Isaiah likely is a start I think we're too low on if you wanted to talk me down on scatibou or neighbors um I will say, go ahead, sir. Neighbors, the report just came out from one of the Giants beatwriters. He was crying at halftime and he was seen yelling at the coaches. He wanted more targets, which is something you get from a league.

That's awesome to hear. Like, in spite of the shoulder injury. And that's kind of who he's always been is like kind of a prick. But like you love that for fantasy. So I'm hoping we get double digit targets for him again this week. And a good, a great, great on-paper matchup, great schematic. match. Well, and the commander's cornerbacks have been beat up pretty good this year, too.

So that is. And they're also tiny and bad. They, they start like two corners that are five, seven. Amik Robertson and Mike Sainter still. Wow. Although didn't Sanger still get benched? I don't know.

I don't know. I guess not, but, uh, yeah, I, the only thing I wonder, you, you cited the fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends on Washington's defense. Is that, it's not a volume thing. though it's been a touchdown luck thing hasn't it five touchdowns against them already uh it could be honestly uh this early into the season i really should be um looking at yards per game allowed or really yardage market share allowed to tight ends or target shows of the more

predictive metrics especially this early into the season because touchdown luck is uh you know such a thing and so heavily weighted um but let's let's see it by the more predictive metrics they are by yards per game allowed, bottom 10. Okay. Yeah, I mean, Dallas Goddard had a great game week one. I don't know that there's been a big time game since then, but anyways. Well, Jake Ferguson had two touchdowns, like you said. A.J. Barner had nine targets, 69 yards.

Eric Soybert had a touchdown in that game. Yeah. You know what's really fascinating is Washington is shut down opposing running backs. Like even the yards they've given up. It's purely volume. It's like they're averaging under four yards of carry allowed. Seattle couldn't run the ball against them. Seattle's ran on everybody else.

They couldn't run against Washington. So I think you're probably right on Scataboo. Maybe we're a little high on him. But we can't be out. If James sucks, we can't be high on all these guys. Exactly. Yeah. So I.

Yeah. What projections call on Friday? We'll square this. Okay, let's move on. Or let's move over to the other side of the ball, the Washington commanders, who I already noted they get Jaden Daniels back, their starting quarterback. I think that's a big deal for a lot of reasons.

Not necessarily a good thing, right, for our past catchers here. Well, Terry McLaren's going to miss. That's confirmed? Yeah. I don't know that it's confirmed, but it seems extremely likely. We don't have them on the board right now, so it seems extremely likely. Pay close attention to that, though.

We're not going to hit him for now. do you like jaden i mean we're calling him a start in his first game back against a defense that's like really humming right now um i like it i actually really do like it so i talked to jeff muller i'm like what sort of injury doc should we be placing on jaden daniels with this elbow and he said i wouldn't i wouldn't place any it's you know re-injury risk is a different story but like in terms of you know how he's going to fare this week it shouldn't impact throwing it shouldn't impact running. And like that's been a thing is you know, he's played six quarters. And in those six quarters, he has 12 carries for 100 rushing yards, 32.4 fantasy points that comes out to about

66.7 rushing yards for four quarters. And so, yeah, I, I like that. I think that's, I think that's a pretty strong play. And that's a player you're getting a ton of start sit questions this week and yeah but low in qb1 uh at a bare minimum i like that how wouldn't it affect running that doesn't make sense to me i mean why would it your elbow like imagine i i took a hammer to your elbow why why would that impact you're running well because what happens when you get tackled scott so he said re-injury risk is a different story but in terms of performance efficiency barring that yeah it's not a leg injury i'm not saying yeah i think he's going to avoid running as my point because when you go to the ground your natural instinct is to brace for impact

which is how he's in the situation he's in in the first place i feel like that's just so inevitable regardless like in the pocket you get drag you get tackled you get dragged down it's right it's i don't think he's going to go seeking out re-injury is my point i think he's going to be a little bit more of a pocket passer i mean well to be fair it's kind of he like he came into the year with this injury like he knew this was an issue And like I said, he had 100 rushing yards in six quarters. I don't know. Maybe, maybe, but I'm just going to trust the injury expert who knows this sort of thing more than me.

Yeah, I think he's thinking about it from the lens of does it prevent him from like non-psychologically. Is there a reason he can't run? Because the elbow? No. I think that's the angle he's taking. But there's a psychological component. There's a team management component that I don't think we're factoring in the projection, where it's like there's a really good chance.

They just tell Jane and Daniels not the. run so he doesn't re-injure it yeah so it's possible i mean like we have him below what he's averaging 21.6 fantasy points per four quarters so maybe chris does have some sort of dock on there but um like i said qb 10 i feel good about that personally okay jacori kroski merit he's he stinks what's what's going on with this he stinks but the giants are bottom five in yards per carry so the the The official designation here is an RB-25 ranking, which means he's on defense. But yeah, you really don't want to be starting him if you could avoid it. Are the Giants really that bad against their run?

Yeah, well, I mean, they were awful last year and they traded away their best run defender and they're worse now. True. Wow. Yeah, they are. Okay. The thing is, he had a really easy matchup last week, though, and didn't do anything. Yeah, well, that's the issue is he stinks. You know, he's dead last in rushing yards over expectation per carry, EPA per run, you know, all these kind of stuff.

And like even last year, he had like, he housed two outside zone runs and then like the rest of the time. Yeah. One yard per carry. Yeah, exactly. Washington offensive line is not playing good either. Really high pressure right alone. Yeah, we were worried coming into the year. Right.

Their bottom five and adjusted yards before contact generated per attempt. So that's not great either. But, yeah. So I'm, I don't know, do we need to pull up the slot machine? No. No, you don't want to? Listen, you're trying to, if you have a name that like doesn't make you want to throw up, you start them over Jacori Kraski Merck.

Kyle Monongue. Absolutely. He's hurt. I don't care. Okay. JCM is healthy, okay? And he stinks. So this is a good one, Alvin Kamara.

Alvin Kamara, yeah. Bucky Irving, for sure. easy okay all right david montgomery yeah in this matchup david montgomery worst exodia ever let me give you a couple specific different ones sorry will shippley i would chase the upside with will shippley okay so he's a sit for us then he's not even an on the fence yeah we're we're plunging him yeah yeah this is why you listen to the show you subscribe to fantasy points dot com promo code exodia and then on sunday mornings you check our projections you use the front office tool you use ball knowledge you use whatever and you you start your

lineups because our projections best in the injury industry on wednesday thursday friday saturday sunday but our best version of those come saturday sunday yeah all right let's at these past catchers stephan digs where you at well we we have them as a flex i'm i'm a lot more bullish uh personally you already saw him perform much better with jay's Daniels than Marcus Marriota. With Jaden Daniels on the field, he had a 0.32 target per route run that ranked top three among all players

or would have ranked top three among all players. His route shares up to 73% over the last two weeks. The Giants are giving up the fifth most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. I really like you. No, no Terry McLaurin. We only have them as a low end wide receiver three.

Really? I'm more bullish. I would go. give me the over and I'd say maybe even a fringe wide receiver too Brett you know who we're not high enough on are you gonna keep up for Antonio Williams yeah mini Ammon Ra yes I am oh you know maybe so clearly one of these guys is ranked wrong you know who led the commanders in Rout's run last week was it Antonio Williams mini Ammon Ra it was which is a big pivot from where they were at before, right?

Dami Brown was playing over him. Trelon Burks was getting some more run than him. Yeah, he led them in route, uh, routes run last week. He also, you know, if you give back, give him back that long touchdown, 121 yards in a, in a touchdown. So like, he's balling. Yeah.

Every time this guy's on the field, he looks great. Yeah. I like him much better than Y receiver 52 is all I'm saying. I think he's more of a flex option for me as well, but. Wow. Wow. Yeah, let's get both of these guys up. Yeah, and like, you know, the giants have been good at outside corner this year, too.

So, Deante Banks has played, you know, better this year than he did last year. Yada yada. All right, let's move on. The Chicago Bears travel to the Green Bay Packers. Over under a 45 and a half, Chicago's favored by three on the road in Land. that's insane that's insane with the Bears starting a backup quarterback to be favored on the road in Lambo that just shows you how things have turned for the worst in Green Bay well they stink right like isn't this what you were saying week one and then prove proven correct we yeah the third

their O line looks awful they've obviously signed a bunch of dudes though got to see how that looks and then you know defensively they leave a lot to be desired at times as well so but let's start on the Chicago side of the ball we're saying sit for Baygent Well, I wanted to ask you a question, Brett. You know, we were very excited about Bejan in his first start under Ben Johnson. Didn't look like a material upgrade over Caleb Williams to me. Bejant didn't? Yeah.

Are you joking? You thought so? Let's hear it. That's why I'm asking you. You're the film guy. I'm the stats guy. Bro. He's you haven't noted.

The stats weren't great. For fantasy football, it was 100% an upgrade. Well, for the supporting cast, that was the stat I had was, um, Bajant and Keenham both had a catchable throw rate over 81%. Caleb's never done that once in any of his starts ever. Yeah, dude, I thought he looked awesome. I mean, he ran the offense as designed. They got into this game script where they just ran the ball like 40-something times,

but they didn't have to do that. I thought he played really well. I saw him struggle in the red zone, or maybe not him, just the offense struggle inside the red zone a little bit. He did have that one bad turnover. But, yeah, I mean, was he Jared Goff-esque running the Ben Johnson system? No, I wouldn't say that, but Jared Goff's a top six quarterback in the league. I don't think Tyson is the top six quarterback in the league.

I don't know that Jared Goff's top six, Brad. I think he is. You wearing a Lions jersey under that shirt? No. Maybe at home with Ben Johnson calling the plays Jared Goss top six. I'll give you that. At home in the dome. Okay.

Sure. Well, Tyson Baget wasn't that. But I thought he looked good, though. I thought he looked good. Visit BetMGM Casino and check out the newest exclusive. The Price is Right Fortune Pick. BetMDM and GameSense remind you to play responsibly. 19 plus to wager.

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Yeah, the bear's running backs. I'd like to be starting both of them. I just see a ton of upside here. We need an injury update on Menangai. Like he's expected to play. I know that, but like he is banged up. Yeah, well, it's interesting. You know, DeAndre Swift had that fumble after he got stuffed at the goal line twice

or he had two touchdowns called back. And then it was the Kyle Menangai show. You know, he got 30 plus carries. Ben Johnson said, you know, he suffered this thumb injury. Ben Johnson said, oh, you know, he's just, he had 30 carries and he's, he's feeling it. I don't know. Made it seem like more just like, oh, it'll be fine. Most valuable backfield and fantasy by a landslide.

He combined for 130xFP. No one else over 110, I believe, or no other backfield. And you saw that with the Lions, too. It's just like typically a gross 50-50 committee. So you have two mid-range RB-2s to high-end RB-2s instead of like a mega league winner. Unless you do get that and then you get Jumeer Gibbs. But yeah, so you saw a potential, yeah, the Kyle Menongai show. And so there was a concern, hey, maybe Kyle Menongai is the guy because Ben Johnson's sick of this fumble, getting stuffed at the goal line.

Or maybe it's the D'Andre Swift show. again because he ranked top 12 and xfp three weeks in a row then he fumbled when the doghouse and now kylemanon guys uh dealing with this thumb i i just see so much upside in this backfield that i want to start both of these guys i agree they're going to tilt run heavy with with uh bajunette quarterback anyways so i agree with you um were you at on luther burton i i still feel good about him you know it was really down weak uh it was the romo doomsday show But up until that, he ranked top 12 and first three target share. So and Khalif Raymond is finally, you know, world is starting to make sense.

He took a back seat. And so we have burden projected comfortably ahead of Rome, Odunze. Although O'Donze is killing it in the ass department, Brett. Yeah, I think Luther Burden is a flex play. I think Adunzee and Loveland are sits if you can afford it. If Luther Burton went off this week, would that just be like a conjugal visit for you? Wait, why am I in prison in this scenario?

Because of Luther Burden, he's put you there. He's locked you in prison. I'm in hell this year with the Exodias. Yeah, that would be great for me. I don't know that I want to have conjugal intercourse, but it would be, it would be, it would be a, I'm not saying, I'm not saying with him. I'm just saying, in general, it's like you're in prison and then it'd be like, It'd be like getting to have intercourse while you're in prison.

It's a conjugal visit. Okay. It'd be such a relief for you. Well, yeah. Not quite out of prison yet, but a very nice relief at that. Yeah. No, you're not liking that one. Well, I had something very funny to say that you might get us in trouble with the YouTube sensors.

Oh, okay. Well, we don't want to make the YouTube censors mad. We like making money, so. Yeah. Colson Loveland at Tideon 19. I'm really shocked that Chris hasn't pinched us a little bit with the performance last week. He just finally came around, you know? Yeah.

I don't know. What do you mean? What? I sell me on it. Dude, we were projecting him to be like a top four tight end preseason. Right. He has a couple bad weeks, but then he comes alive last week. it's like we're not even phased by it i mean he had five catches through the first three weeks

and then he had what six for fifty seven last week it's that that's like if you just average it out it's like almost kyle pittster nine targets i don't know there was an there was an concerted effort to get in the ball we know the talent is there that's not an issue yeah how much confidence do you have in that though that it's it's the the last week sample overweights the three week's sample of awful. A lot, especially when you curb for the fact that week two was a quarterback. Week two was a monsoon, right? It was like the score of that game was nine to three because it was literally a downpour the entire game. Caleb Williams gets hurt in that game. You know, week three is against Philadelphia who has some very, very good interior defenders,

interior coverage defenders. You know, it's not a great matchup for Colson Loveland. And then finally, he gets to run a little bit and he gets nine targets it seems it makes sense to me um he had nine targets and uh had fewer yards than burden a few yeah he's a tight end scott's a no touchdowns on the year keeps getting tackled at the three yard line i don't know i i i don't feel good about it i'd keep him a sit if he goes off in your bench that's awesome great it's like hey maybe this wasn't the worst pick and fantasy like it was looking in week four You're calling him a sit? Yeah.

Tata 19. That's a good projection, Chris. I mean, not a good, yeah, you can, he's not, he's not cracking the top 12 for me, right? I'll say that. So I can't get you top 12, but how high can I get you? You love this game. I do. Paph Ryan, come on.

I kind of like the matchup for, for Patty. All right. Over a Ronde Gasson, looks like they're tied in projection. Yeah, that's the same projection. I put it over. Cade Rotten, dude, that's so disrespectful. It's against the Cowboys. That's a Hansonism.

Hansen's been calling him Cade Rotten. Oh, that's awesome. That's so, that's so genuine. Over Tyler Higby, come on, come on. I would go Tyler Higby. Against the bills? These are all great matchups. You're out of your mind.

All right, this one for you. Close and Loveland or Michael Mayer, because you love the butt chin. Love one. The buttion. Okay, I'll go with you. Over 100, Henry. Sure.

All right. Let's stop talking about boss tight ends. bust tight ends. He's going to smash this week, and you're going to regret this. Just like you did every other time. What makes he think he's going to smash? Because I think he's the primary pass catcher in their offense. When that hasn't been the case at all up until last week.

It's better. Luther Byrd in the first read, and then a one-week blip. No, Luther Byrd's gotten mugged in every week they've played. Don't talk about Luther Byrd. Not by first-read target share. The best, most predictive stat we have. Yeah, and you know how I, You know how that's charted?

Do you know who charts that? I do. Do you know how that's charted? Yeah, how do you chart it? You just make up random numbers? Exactly. To mislead you on purpose. No.

First read target share. So Colson Loveland and Luther Burden can both be part of the first read on a play. You know that, right? Mm-hmm. Yeah. Okay. Just want to make sure you know that. So the target distribution is somewhat matchup dependent,

but it's pretty evident that Colson Loveland is part of the primary pass concept on nearly every passing down. So luck will go his way at some point, especially as he gets into some favorable matchups. The Green Bay defense has been kind of a hot mess. They're down. Edrian Cooper, their mismatch weapon in the middle of their defense that takes away tight ends, this coverage freak, he's gone. The safeties are, they're playing this too high shell stuff. they're having to compensate for the cornerback play. Like, it's, I don't know.

I think Colson Lovesant is going to smash, but whatever. You disagree. 29% first-read target share for Luther Burden, 19% for Khalif Raymond, 17.9% for Colston Loveland. What was it last week? We can move on. Oh, that's right. I just wanted to really make sure this was on the record.

He was 35% last week. Oh, okay. That sounds nice. Yeah, but he was like tight end 50 before that, so. Yeah, and I've already walked you through those three games. Yeah, listen, yeah, you're a great film guy, but I know what's predictive. I look at the samples and generally speaking, three weeks matter more than one week. Broadly speaking.

Okay. All right. I can't wait to have this conversation next week. I'm really excited about it. Do you want to put a bet on the table? Sure. What do you want? Do you want knitting with Scott or something?

something like crying with Scott crying with Scott when do I cry all right let's see Loveland's over under it's 37 and a half yards that's what it is on the Vegas budget yeah no let's let's start let's do Chris's projection okay well what's wrong with 37 and a half I mean that's so low oh okay what is Chris's projections dude 37 and a half is three Three point is less than four fantasy points. Okay, like if he scores more than four fantasy points, it's fine.

Okay, what's Chris's projection then? Colson Loveland is projected for nine fantasy points. Okay. So where do you want to set the bet then? Nine, do you want, I'll give you nine and a half. You think he's gonna finish as a top 12 option this week. Is that right? Yeah, yeah.

All right, well then the line is, So 12 to 13 is 10.3. So we'll set that as the over under, 10.3 fantasy points. If it goes over, you get to do another cooking with Brett. We get to see your, your shepherd's pie or whatever. Braise short rib. How about that? Braise short rib.

No, no vegan options, Brett. Heck no. You're not going to do a ratatouille or, uh, I eat 16 ounces of rice. spring salad. You know, you know, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, it's, uh, the environment and, uh, it's great, man. 10.3 fan is and then if I, if I, if it goes under, I get to do a story time with Scott. I get to do a school of Scott at the end on Friday. Okay. So 10.3, you said, right? Yeah. 10. 10.3. I'm smashing.

over on that. Congrats. Bet, bet made, Week 5, Colson Loveland, over 10.3 fantasy points for me. Okay. Packers, their implied point totals 21 and a half. We're calling Jordan Love a sit, QB14, calling Marshawn Lloyd a sit

at RB 33. Everyone else has a borderline for both, honestly. Yeah, on the fence ish for love, but Lloyd, sit Lloyd, yeah. Yeah, sit Lloyd. All the pass catchers, though, we're calling to start. So interesting dichotomy there. No, I love it. This is what I've been saying is it's way

it's always been a hyper-efficient offense for the past catchers, but now it's so much more condensed. And you know, you have Watson and Golden both what top 15 and XFP per game. Tucker Kraft seeing a full-time route share. Finally, a nice target share, productive. I like all three guys. I think all three guys are starts every single week. Nice. Almost like no question starts regardless of matchup. It's just. Yeah.

The Packers have no defense. I know their offensive line stinks too, but they just have to air it out. No, you're not wrong. I'm also, I'm concerned with Chicago's past defense, to be honest with you. Well, yeah, that's part of the cherry on top here. Yeah, they haven't really been tested yet this year. The one time they were, it was Bryce Young and he went for $3.50 something on them in like a shootout come from behind kind of game so i don't know i we really haven't seen the bears tested so

but their pass force hasn't been great you know it's like a 35% pressure rate which is okay the coverage units just been okay um their their corners are very beatable though so i definitely like starts on all these guys but curious on jordan love like i feel like he should probably be a qb one but yeah i'm not mad at it if if you call on that okay All right, now we can move on. Broncos chargers over under 42 and a half. Broncos favored over the 0 and 4 charges by 3.5 on the road. It's a division game.

It's a 4 p.m. game. Let's start on the Broncos side of the ball. This is gross. This is, look at this. There's one green player here and a blue player. What if is the blue? Says if. So am I starting or sitting Justin Herbert?

Well, if. His offensive line plays better. You could start him if his play caller is better. If he had a top five supporting cast, a top three offensive line, a better offensive play caller, if he was better at playing football. For now, he's got to be a sit.

Yeah, so right now there's rumors circling that Sean Payton is taking over play calling duties from Dragon Web, or he's going to be just quote unquote, more involved in play calling. our charting team shout out to Zach Swales bill o'brien not the the coach different bill o'brien says it's it's not dragon web's fault it's all on bow nix he's just not seeing open receivers jalen wattle's getting open nix is just not looking his way bro he's averaging 5.1 yards per

attempt and with a 4.7 a dot it's it's bad out here in these streets um but i always also still want to blame the play caller you have r j harvey leading the team in target share that's embarrassing that's not that's not the play caller's fault though pat bryant has three times as many games with over 35 receiving yards as jalen wattle or cartland sutton i get maybe he's sean payton's new darren sprolls but like come on let's get jaylon waddle eight plus targets per game right or or is just jel waddle like not not a guy that we thought he was So what's going on here, Brett? Tell it like it is.

Yeah, we've hit it this week pretty extensively. It's Bo Nix, man. Bo Nix stinks. There's a little bit to be said about Dragonwebs play calling, though. If you guys go to FadisPoints.com and fire up Ryan Heath's efficiency hacks article. There's all these efficiency hacks. A couple low-hanging fruit ones, early down passing, motion, play action. He's like middle of the pack or worse in all of those.

he's not really implementing any at a high level. Their 12 personnel rate is also super low. So they're not really mix and matching personnel to get advantages. They're not using motion or play action to get advantages. They're not taking advantage of early down passing, which with a quarterback like Bo Nix who loves to throw screens and stuff, that's a great time to take advantage of early down passing, not really doing any of that at a better than average level.

And so I do think there's something to that. But also, Bo Nix just stinks, Scott. Yeah, I'm pretty out. I mean, you kind of have to start. waddle, but, you know, don't be shocked if he struggles again. Visit BetMGM Casino and check out the newest exclusive. The Price is Right Fortune Pick. BetMDM and GameSense remind you to play responsibly.

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Yeah. Moving over to the other side, 0 and 4 Chargers, we have two like borderline starts here, which honestly I thought was somewhat surprising. We have Trey Harris and Quentin Johnson projected as, what is this, low end, wide receiver threes, mid-range wide receiver threes.

And they're basically tied. It's basically a coin flip between them. I know Patrick Sartain is out this week, But I don't know, it seemed kind of kind of high. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, I think it's just because lad's gone, right? So they have to target somebody is going to be what Chris says and the projections are going to tomorrow.

Targets have to go somewhere. Harris and Quentin Johnson have both struggled to really establish themselves. I don't know. I have like less than zero faith in this Chargers offense across the board. We've beat this dead over the first four weeks of the season here. so we don't really have to do the whole thing again. But yeah, any other thoughts? I just can't wait to talk about these next few games.

All right. Speaking of which, the Detroit Lions. Fantasy Bonanza, baby. Look at all that green, that glorious green. The lines travel to Arizona. It's got the highest implied point total of the week at 54.5. Detroit's favored by five and a half. I'm not sure their defense can keep the game that close.

close to be honest with you but uh or sorry to give them that kind of lead is what i meant to say on the line side of the ball it's a start them if you got them game even jameson williams at wide receiver 29 you're you're flexing him who stinks i actually really like jamo this week again let's talk about it let's let's let's get well i don't want let's get there when we get there brett buried lead this game is going to go apeshit this is this is so this is going to be Over under is 54.5 points, which is really high. Maybe it should be 60. Like I feel so convicted in this.

Lions are worst in points per drive allowed. Second worst in EPA per play allowed. They allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterback's tight ends and slot wide receivers. They're the second biggest pass funnel by P.ro. Arizona might be even worse of a pass funnel. Their defense is second best in EPA per run. second worst by EPA per dropback allowed they're also bottom six and points allowed per game yards per play points per drive EPA per play fantasy points per game allowed to

quarterbacks wide receivers and tight ends they're dead last an explosive play rate allowed what does this mean should be an extreme pass-heavy shootout with tons of play volume from two very fast-paced teams. Amon Ross St. Brown and James are like second and third in total routes run. The Cardinals two weeks ago had a game with 80 plus plays that's so rare.

So you have Jared Gough projected for what I believe to be is the most we've ever given him in a road game. A ton of projected fantasy points. He's a top five. He's not a top six quarterback. If anyone ever tells you that, Brett, they're a liar. You should punch them in the face. But this week, he's a top six fantasy quarterback.

This is a really interesting schematic matchup as well. The Cardinals deploy two high coverage, 73% of the time. That's second most. Yeah. But they're giving up, this is where it gets crazy. They're giving up 0.8 fantasy points per dropback in these two high looks. For perspective, Matthew Stafford led the league last year in fantasy points per dropback with just like 0.6. I think it was maybe zero point six eight um and so I thought too high coverage was

really good for stopping explosive plays like that's why you do it uh James and Williams really struggles against too high throughout his career but is a great explosive playmaker but the cardinals are giving up explosive plays at the highest rate in the league by the way uh Jared Goff second best EPA per dropback since 2024 against too high so he's really good at it I thought this is really good at mitigating explosive plays but somehow the Cardinals are the worst at explosive plays well who told you that the fantasy points data suite 2.0 no I'm saying who told you too high is good at mitigating explosive plays isn't that the whole Vic Fangio thing you bend but

don't break defense do you don't fanger's a little bit I mean he plays too high but it's more purely quarters match where Arizona's really only running quarters match like 20% of the time they're in cover six more they're in cover two more okay is this is broadly speaking true or not that single high gives up more passing explosives than two high i don't know that i'm willing to commit to yes that's broadly true all right then it really it just really depends on the scheme and and and the way they're deploying me football brett let's let's yeah so like if you if you're running in a a very aggressive cover three or a or cover one man in single high those are easier coverages to exploit deep passing downfield for sure. But a lot of people play a lot of

cloud cover three or their play off cover three or they'll have their, you know, their boundary corner play off and their field corner play press. It's so it really just depends on the, the internal workings of every scheme. With this Arizona cover or too high shell that you see, it's a lot more cover too. And they don't really have the linebackers to cover the hole. So you get this middle of field open look, which is very exploitative towards deep inbreakers to deep crossers to seam balls. And you could come up with some really cool route combinations to take advantage of the way they deploy their too high coverages. Their safeties are also aligned really flat. So you get this flat look across the board where it's basically like almost like a four high

look pre-snap. Well, there's there's ways to to trick that. And so yeah, the, the, other big point is like it doesn't matter what cover scheme you run you still need the horses to run it and and they just really don't and so so yeah thank you for the the the x's nose lesson there uh i appreciate it jara goff second best EPA per dropback against too high amun ross st brown has the league's highest target per route run against too high since 2024 uh he jameson against too high against too high, drops all the way down to 0.16 target per route run. That's basically, so I'm a Rossi Brown wide receiver 1, Jameson all the way down to wide receiver 99.

But, like I said, they're giving up explosives at the highest rate in the league against the deep ball. Every time you target Arizona, you target wide receivers against Arizona with the deep ball. They're averaging 26.3 yards per target. Worst fantasy points per target at deep passes by. a landslide. So is this, on paper, I look at this. I look at the data.

I look at the schematic. And it's like, oh, amazing for Amun Ra, awful for Jameson, who I hate and I want to hate. But you're saying you like this? Yeah, James and Williams targets per, his target share has actually climbed versus too high this year. Interesting. It's still not great against single high or too high,

but it's actually higher against too high. Some of that is they just played a lot of too high. Like last week was a too high matchup. we loved it for JMO, right? So again, a similar type of defense where they are going to be a little bit more aggressive with the way they deploy that too high. And so I think, yeah, he's gotten six deep shots this year against two high coverages. So they're dialing up deep shots for JMO against too high.

And you already laid it out. The Cardinals just hemorrhage yards. It's favorable for JMO. It's like not the ideal matchup, but it's still a good matchup for JMO. So I like him better than wide receiver 29. Yeah. Leporta also a guy who's historically benefited gets a bump against too high gets a bump against cover six he's actually a team's best receiver against cover six um which Arizona deploys more than

anyone and so yeah it's really just like all green and he like even as much as i hate james and williams i think it's a favorable spot for and he's run really bad with luck like but the stat i had was uh he leads the league and drop air yards by a landslide and like those five drops are worth anywhere between an extra 15.3 and 66.4 fantasy points. He's wide receiver 18 by XFP per game. And Sam Laporta is also a mega start. He last year he averaged 25 routes run per game. This year he's at 36.

He's basically playing five and a half quarters per game versus last year's four. Drew Petzig, I think is awesome for him. And so, yeah, it's just all green, all up and down the board. Jamir Gibbs, by the way. I know we don't have to spend too much time on. him but this is the most points we've ever projected for a non-quarterback the last time this this happened he dropped over 40 fantasy points so we were still too low um so that's great it is a much better matchup for the receivers than the running backs on the ground but dude jemir gives his red

zone role involved in the passing game just being good at ball in a game that goes crate bananza fantasy bonanza it's all it's all starts yeah and for dFS it's like this is the best game on the main slate by like an absolute landslide like even if it's chalky i kind of just want to lean into that sure on the cardinal side cute did i say on monday show jacobobesette better be a top eight qb in our projections well guess where he's at qb seven so we love we love to see it michael wilson wheels up again here he should dominate this lion's team don't need a whole lot of analysis there they have given up in like look at the wide receiver ones they face scott i'm sure you've looked at this yeah chriselave had 182 yards then dj moore got

hurt but uh don't concade had nearly 100 yards garrett wilson had 26.7 fantasy points and then tet mcmillan went to 45 bomb yeah yeah yeah yeah so wilson he's got 30 targets the last two weeks the lines are not going to have an answer for him. Definitely start him. Definitely start Trey McBride. Lines are the worst team in the league against tight ends as well. Yeah, Michael Wilson, big time by low for us, if you listen to yesterday's episode.

And like Trey McBride, nuclear spot. Like he's, yeah, if we could pull up projections, wide receivers and tight ends, I'd like to see where he ranks next to like an Aminrod just because the lines aren't just giving up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. they're giving up. So yeah, he's a top five wide receiver for us this week.

He's basically tied with Amin Ra. The Lions are giving up six more fantasy points per game to tight ends than any other defense. That's absurd. And I look too to make sure it wasn't just touchdown look. They've given up six touchdowns, but they've also given up at least 95 yards of tight ends in every game this season, I believe. Crazy. So pretty nuts.

What about your boy, Jeremiah Love? My boy, yeah. Backfield XFP share went from 65% to 76%. I don't know what to do with this. This is where I really rely on you for your fantasy expertise, because, like, you know, he's got the, he's banged up, but he's also saying Algier and Bam Knight should get more touches.

I don't know. Like, it's just a weird situation. The lines have been spotty against the run. They've had games where they're very good and then games where they're very bad. So, like, I have no idea what to make of this matchup for him. I would assume the Cardinals will need to score in this game, and the run game is not going to be a huge, you know, important part of what they do.

Yeah, again, I think it's just a fantasy bananza. Like, I just want to start everyone. So I would start Jeremiah Love. What about Maserati Marv? Yeah, no. No. It's over. Gigi.

It's over until he gets traded. All right. It's over even then, probably. You think so? No. His true love is musical theater. He only does football because his dad made him. You're going to get sued for liable for saying that.

It would have to be false in order for it to be liable. So bring it on, bring it on. All right. I'll win that lawsuit 10 times at a time. A lot of green here on the 49ers side. I mean, Brock Purdy, I did my MVP ballot this morning for the quarter way through. Brock Purdy was my MVP. He's playing excellent.

What do you got here? Um, yeah, so I mean, it's like a really tough matchup on paper against Mike McDonald. I will say like I was looking at via Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0 is just like everyone's track record against Mike McDonald. And like, pretty certainly gets a hit in what, a four game sample size. But it's really not as big of a hit as it typically is for just about everyone else. Yeah, and I just think given how the 49ers offense has played and like how they're rolling. I, yeah, I think Brock Purdy, middish, QB1, CMC, middish, RB1, George Kittle, top three.

God, I love, I love George Kittle so much. And then the wide receivers, I think Evans high-end wide receiver three. I want to pick your brain on this. I found an interesting stat. So Mike Evans leads all wide receivers in Target share on third down with an insane 45%. the rest of the time. So first, second, fourth down, just a 13% target share. And so I feel like that's, hey, Mike Evans is still separating, still an ask God, but they're scared about him taking unnecessary hits.

So they really only use him when they desperately need him. The rest of the time, they just take it easy. You think that's what's going on? It seems like it, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. It's why it's remarkable what Purdy's doing with supporting Cassie as right now. No, it's seriously crazy.

He's so good. He's so good. George Kittle looks back, back. He looks really good. We're calling Evans and Debo a flex. Bro, that touchdown one was incredible. For a guy who tore his Achilles within the same, like earlier this year,

in the year 2026, he tore his Achilles. And then he looks, yeah. Spry. Fast. We don't need to tell you to start Christian McCaffrey. Visit BetMDMDMDM. casino and check out the newest exclusive. The Price is Right Fortune Pick.

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Discover coffee plus on espresso.com. Dibo Samuel is interesting. Wide receiver 40. we're calling him a flex. It seems a little stretchy. Well, he averaged infinity yards per target two weeks ago. And then last week, he had five catches, 26 yards in a touchdown, plus three carries, 44 rushing yards, kind of back in the old Debo role it looked like. I don't know.

I'm not mad at. I mean, maybe it's a little high. But yeah, he's a what the heck flex, whereas Mike Evans is a start. Okay. Other side, I'm pretty concerned about the Seattle passing game in this, in this game. And I'm, why? Well, the 49ers defense has played way above their skis. They also run disguised coverages at the, what, third highest rate in the league, 40%.

Sam Darnold through over the last three years. So since that breakout season in Minnesota, then continuing on to last year and now this year, he's really bad against the guys' coverage. His pass arena. his pass-a rating. Are you saying he's dumb? His passer rating takes a 27-point hit. It drops from 109 against static coverages to 82.3 against disguise.

His average yards per attempt drops 1.5, which is insane. I'm not saying he's dumb, but he's always had trouble diagnosing coverages in general. He's been a better quarterback in, you know, in a non-coverage read system. So when you can do heavy play action stuff and run the ball good, he's been, he's been good. But when it's progression read through coverages, he's, he's been bad. So I do think this is a tough spot for him. It doesn't mean I'm fading JSN necessarily, but like maybe wouldn't expect wide receiver three output here. Maybe like wide receiver five.

Yeah, so I looked at it a different way. You know, obviously matchups matter. So Sam Darnold. couple weeks ago had 45 pass attempts he had a career high in passing yards and then last week just 22 pass attempts he didn't need to air it out against the shitty charters right i really like game script this week is going to be more like that 45 pass attempt game against the commanders i think the 49ers push him like that's what that's what chris is saying as well so i i kind I see this game being, you know,

certainly not on Detroit's Arizona's level, but could be a sneaky shootout here. You like the over, 46 and a half? I think I do. Yeah, like, so like we, we know the Seahawks from last year were so run heavy and slower pace. But that's not really been the case under this new play caller.

So I'm open to the, it's very game script driven, where it's like if they're trailing or, it's tight, they'll air it out. But if they have a nice lead, they'll play keep away. So I kind of, I don't know.

Okay. Let's move on. Baltimore traveling to Atlanta. This is Atlanta favored at home, which I don't think anyone had this on their bingo card. If we would have told you come week five, they'll be favored against the Baltimore Ravens.

Even though it's a home game, no one would have said yes. over under a 43 and a half. This is the Sunday night football game. I'm excited about this game. One of the games I'm most excited to watch, even though Lamar Jackson's not going to play. But on the Baltimore side, we're saying, obviously, start Derek Henry and say,

Flowers, sit Mark Andrews, sit Tyler Huntley. Do you have any compelling notes here on any of this? It's tough because Tyler Huntley. Yeah, well, that's an important note. Derek Henry in games without Lamar Jackson, he averages 22 fantasy points. per game. Games with Lamar Jackson, just 16.8. You see a massive uptick in volume. It goes from 17.6 carries per game to 24 carries per game, and this is a four game sample. His yards per carry

goes down, but he makes up for it in volume. And I think that's what we see this week. They're going to, yeah, they're not going to let Tyler Huntley air it out to the degree that Lamar did. They're just going to lean on their horse and what a workhorse Derek Henry is. Zay Flowers, obviously, I think, takes a hit from the absence of Lamar Jackson, really saw that in his numbers last year. But he also wasn't in the Declan Doyle role last year. He was now, and now he is, and this role is awesome. You know, our charters were talking about it in their notes from the charting team article,

where it's just like such a cheat code. It's like almost the JSN role from last year where he's getting, he's getting choice routes, he's getting moved all around the line of, he's deployed in motion. to get favorable matchups. He's really the featured option. Also a ton of 13 personnel, heavy personnel benefiting him. And so, yeah, he's a super start for me.

I'm not sitting Zay Flowers. I don't care that Lamar's out. Derek Henry also a mega start. I don't care that Lamar's out. In fact, it might be good. But I'm also secretly rooting against Safe Flowers. I hope he has an awful game. So you can trade by low for the Instagram.

season exodia. So either way, it's a win-win. As I see it, he's been to buy low for us two weeks in a row. People should have already traded for him by now. If they didn't, that's their fault. Oh, okay. I want him to go ham. I have a lot of him. Okay. Also, I asked if you had anything compelling. You don't need to tell people to start Derek freaking Henry. You know what I mean? Well, I'm telling them that it's possible Lamar's absence is good for Derek. Like, that's, that's pretty controversial. Interesting. I don't know. It is. Starting quarterback goes, down it makes sense that they'd increase the run rate so like eight times out of 10 it's a bad thing because the implied point total comes down yeah yeah red zone drives or fewer

efficiency yeah yeah it makes sense but der her he's just a guy you could just give 30 carries to and winning up against a lot of tough defenses yeah and the falcons have been a tough defense at that this year kind of unexpectedly right well that's the thing so that that's the flip side is and why maybe he's only RB11 is Atlanta is like the number one pass funnel. They're a bottom three on paper matchup for running backs. A lot of the efficiency metrics are they're much more vulnerable against the past than the run. But I don't know, man, it's Derek Henry.

Right on. On the other side of this, the Falcons have played significantly better ball with Michael Pennix that quarterback. Oh, another interesting note on Mark Andrews. Tyler Huntley targets tight ends at the league's highest rate. Oh, ahead of Jacoby Brissette. You know what, Dibro, Dibro texts me that actually. That's funny.

Yeah. The only thing is I think that's probably a misleading stat just because the Ravens, their second, third, fourth, best pass catchers were Mark Andrews, Isaiah likely Charlie Kohler. But even so, yeah, wouldn't surprise me if Mark Andrews actually is a little bit better than this tight end 21 ranking. Okay. Atlanta side, we don't need to tell you to start B. John Robinson. He's a freak. we don't need to really tell you to start drink London.

Are you sure? Are you sure you want to start Bijon this week? What are you doing? Yes. Bejohn Robinson is the best running back since. Jimmy or Gibbs. Oh, okay. All right.

You're not going to go prime Christian McCaffrey. That's the thing about CMC is like, dude, he hasn't just lost a step. He's lost like two steps since the Carolina days, but he's still awesome. Trey put in the the producer chat Best running back since ever Wow Michael Pennix at QB 26 Is that not surprising compared to how he's played?

Oh yeah So this is my question for you Brett I'm going to let you I'm going to let you riff here But let me tee it up Is Michael Pennix Jr the best quarterback of all time Best quarterback since Tom Brady

because here's some stats for you. Maybe you could pull it up on the screen. The best slash worst offenses in fantasy points data history through the first four weeks of a season. The 2026 Falcons with Michael Penix is best. The 2026 Falcons without Michael Benix is worst. It's like of 160 different teams. Even since 2024, the Falcons have a top five offense

by EPA per play when Michael Pennix is on the field. The Falcons have also gone over their implied point total and 11 of Michael Pennox's 14 career starts. That's 80% of the time. So basically what that's saying is Vegas is like, this team's not going to score a lot of points. And Michael Penix is like, psych, I'm the goat. And then they go over.

And so I think he beats out our projection here. What's going on here? Is Michael Pennix Jr. or the goat? It's a really simple thing that we talk about a lot. We've talked about it with Tyson Bejant and among many others. Just run the damn offense. That's what he's doing. He's coming.

He's throwing a catchable ball on 80% of his dropbacks. He's getting the ball out in 2.27 seconds, which is the fastest number in the league. I think maybe Sam Donald or Jacoby Brissette's up there too. But yeah, it's just run the offense. Ball out quick. Don't take unnecessary hits. Don't take sacks.

Don't turn the ball over. use Bijon and then when it's time to throw just throw a catchable ball it's it's not rocket science man so they're just they're literally just running the offense love it they're ratcheting up their 13 personnel and 12 personnel stuff too which is giving them some mismatch match type stuff it's pretty simple is Michael Panx Jr. better than Justin Herbert don't don't do this to me okay uh Drake London And across 14 Michael Pennock starts, 3.5 yards per route run, 20.7 fantasy points per game, over 100 yards per game. That puts him like just right behind Puka and JSN in that tier.

And so, yeah, he's a superstar Bejanne Robinson. I want to nail down this ranking or this projection. Like I think we're low. How low are we, Scott? I don't know. There's a lot of like wide receivers to be excited about this week. No, I'm talking, I'm talking Penix. Penix is projection, sorry.

Oh, yeah. QB 26 feels low. Oh, yeah. That's disrespectful even. Like, we have Deshawn Watson and Malik Willis and Tyson Bayesian, Kyla Murray ahead of him. Those guys all stink. Yeah.

Let's put, in our personal projections, let's put them up to QB 18, 19. I like that. Okay. I'd even go 17 because Herbert's 17. Yeah, the problem is it just doesn't matter because only 5% of of our listeners are in Super Flex League. Sure, sure, sure.

Yeah, chances are you have someone better to start, but things are trending in the right direction for Michael Pennix. Okay. Last game. Yeah, and another fantasy bonanza here. Yep, the L.A. Sorry, the Bills are traveling to the L.A. Rams.

Thank God, the Bills have played three home games in a row. It's about time they had to play on the road. Over under a 54, second highest total in the week, LA favored by three. three at home, fantasy bonanza, you called it. I mean, this is, this is insane. We don't need to tell you to start Josh Allen, but you like James Cook in this one?

Well, for DFS, uh, I kind of worry about Josh Allen a little bit. I, I don't know if this is right or not. Like he's for sure, the top quarterback in our projections, but I wonder if that knee is 100%. He just had the fewest rushing yards he had in nearly two years.

So that might like limit his upside a little bit, but that's really just a DFS note. James Cook, I think RB 13's fair. He's RB 13 by XFP per game. But he averages 20 fantasy points per game and wins, just 12 fantasy points per game and losses. The bills are dogs. Only three points, but they are dogs. Did you see my yards before contact stat? No.

Trey, if you can pull it up. They're averaging the most yards before contact per attempt of all time by like a landside. They're at four. I think the next closest is like 2.8. Did you tweet this or something? Yeah, I could. Yeah. Yeah, I have you muted on Twitter.

Oh, is that right? Yeah, like could the bills lead the league in or could, could James Cook have a 2000 rushing guard season? Trey, did I not give you this link? I'm going to go with no since it's not up. We got this one, though. Yeah, there it is. So 4.1.2.

We've never seen a, so 4.1, we've never seen in Fantasy Points data history, a backfield average 3.1. Could James Cook have a 2000 rushing year season? And so why I'm teeing this up to you is, I don't know, a lot of the film bros are geeking out over how they're doing this run game. It's like, how man, power. hour duo, but with his own look. I don't know. It's over my head. They've always mixed up their run concepts, though.

This isn't new. Is it Joe Brady thing? Yeah, it's a Joe Brady thing. They game, like, they have very game plan specific run concepts. It's been very fascinating. I can pull some data for you in a second here. Yeah, I mean, they're a, they're a dual heavy team at 38% and they spruce in outside zone at 15.5.

inside zone 12-7. But then all of the other little gap schemes, power, counter, pull, lead. You know, they literally mix it all in. It's really fascinating. And it's game plan specific. If they hit an odd front, they're going to go super heavy gap scheme. If they're hitting an even front that plays a lot of nickel, they're going to outside zone them to death.

It's great. It's actually, it's a very similar approach to what the Lions did early in the Dan Campbell tenure. They've gotten away from that. And the run games suffered because of it. So, yeah, it's a really great run game. And then when you add the plus ones because you have Josh Allen at quarterback, every freaking snap, it's awesome. Yeah.

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Or go with the flow and choose ginseng delight. our new double espresso with ginseng extract whatever lies ahead don't change your morning let your morning change you discover coffee plus on espresso dot com all right clear Shakir you're you're flexing him wide receiver 31 I like I actually think I like Keon Coleman more I feel exactly the same way yeah exactly the same way I think sorry Chris yeah Kean Coleman is a flex that he's gonna play he's gonna play every snap too Shakur's not we know that Josh Palmer's been sneaky good too although he's banged up right now but here's the stat I have on Keon Coleman with DJ Moore off the field he averages 3.7 yards per route run that would

rank top five so give me give me Keon way more upside than Khalil Shakur too I think but what's interesting is Dalton Kincaid's a sit you had yet every fantasy analyst victory lapping Dalton Kincaid after week two week three he's a league win He's a top five tight end every week moving forward. And then the route share falls all the way down to 43% last week in a game without DJ Moore. What happened there? Do you think that's right? Well, the bills, haven't they gone away from their heavy personnel packages the last two weeks?

Am I making that up? Why are they doing? I don't know. I asked Joe Marino this. He didn't have a good answer for me either. I don't know. And guess what? Josh Allen struggled the last two weeks.

the shadows betray you oh that was good pull up the bane again sorry yeah um yeah that the heavy personnel betrays you i guess but uh yeah it's dropped a lot like they were 38% what 13 and and way up there in 12 and now they're down to 21% and 13 i don't know i don't it doesn't make sense to me but i i would expect them to get back to that that is who they are as a team and so Dalton Kincaid, anytime they're going to run heavy 12 and 13, he's, he's a start for sure. I don't know that that will be this week, though. Yeah. Why are you looking at me like that?

I'm looking at my notes. Bro, you were staring right into the camera, right at me, right through my eyeballs. All right, on the ram side, minus Tyler Higby, start him if you got him. Stafford, QB3. Tyler Higby is like a start, too, honestly. I know, you did say that earlier in the show. You did say that. Yeah.

I don't know if I'm there, though. So, so like the one issue here is like this game could could outscore Lions, Cardinals. I think probably not, but it definitely could. It's it's kind of a lopsided matchup. The bills are one of the worst defenses in football. The Rams are one of the best. But like Josh Allen is literally Superman and he could just be like matchups don't matter on him. You know, but for sure, this is awesome on the ram side.

If you, if you throw out the Australia game where they rolled off the plane, at halftime, it felt like. He has 300 yards in three straight games. He has a game with four touchdowns, a game where he had two touchdowns and finished 10 yards shy of 400 yards. He has 50 plus pass attempts in back-to-back games. So QB3, I'm not mad at,

except you said his arm look, Case Keenum levels of Cook last week. One game, I can't, I got to see it again. You know what I mean? Oh, you know, you're saying one game, now but when it was colson loveland who had over 10 yards and only one game i'm not going to say a dude's arm is cooked from one game okay you know all right all right well qb3 qb3 if he finishes qb 13 that'll be our excuse kair williams though rb8 are you're talking about one game but what a one game

it was 16 carries 80 rushing yards two rushing touchdown check down merchant 13 targets 13 targets 10 catches, 67 receiving yards. He now has three straight games with 80 plus rushing yards. He has 65 plus receiving yards and back-to-back games. You look at his backfield XFP share. So how much of the backfield work he's getting went from 60% to 62% to 73% to 86%. We're back to like premium 2024 usage. RIP Blake Corum.

It's the Cameron Williams show. And it is glorious. the Buffalo, so that that usage is like top three usage. It goes like if that sticks, it goes Gibbs Bijon Kairn. Maybe or Gibbs Bijan Kenneth Walker, Kairn. But yeah, right there. Buffalo Bill is giving up the six most fantasy points per game to running backs. Also an interesting note I had.

Yeah. The one thing that Buffalo's defense does well is pressure the quarterback. They do that at a top five rate. Stafford really struggling against pressure. 6.2% turnover worthy throw rate. Highest checkdown rate since 2021. That benefits Kyran theoretically. And so, yeah, RB8, I don't know.

I'd go higher. I'd go higher. Buffalo Bill's defensive end, Gregory Rousseau, was my first quarter defensive player of the year for those wondering at home. Puga-Divante. Is he related to Jean-Jacques? Yes.

Wow, that's crazy. Same family, for sure. That's nuts. Pooka and Akua, Devante Adams. Start them. I don't, we don't have to spend any time here, Scott. Come on. What are we?

It's a start, sits show. Yeah, yeah, we have Puga wide receiver one. We have Devante Adams wide receiver five. Interesting stat I had on Devante Adams. He's ranked top three in air yards, three straight weeks. He has 565 air yards over this span. No one else has even 400. I will say Buffalo is good okay Buffalo is like top five against short passes top seven against intermediate passes bottom 10 against the deep ball which is like totally contrary to the Sean McDermit bills um and so I don't know 16.6 8 out for Adams like those air yards are awesome but I feel like it kind of works against him a little bit in this matchup I think things funnel more towards Kyron Puka Higbee.

but at the same stretch, you know, it's like, dude, that's a shit ton of air yard. So I don't know, maybe wide receiver five is a little high, but certainly a top 10 start. We need a sixth show, apparently, where it's just Scott Barrett data dump. Yeah, am I just going down unnecessary rabbit holes? Sound off in the comments. If I need to shut up, just do you need to be told fascinating facts about our projected wide receiver one and five? Yeah, maybe I just need to do a separate. show with Chris on Wednesdays and not record that.

Yeah, there you go. You just want to talk about state. Exactly. Let's get on with it. Trust me, bro. Okay, okay. That's the slate. That's the week five slate. Let's get on with it.

I'm going to prepare you guys cooking with Brett. Look at this. We're cooking steak. This is a practical guide. There's a million fancy techniques. Can you say bam? Bam? Like Emerald.

Oh, bam. Bam! That was great. Cooking your bread. Bam. Yeah. So I'm going to give you a practical guide to cooking the ultimate steak. This is designed towards people that don't have all day to cook.

Okay. Like there's a million I could teach you out of suede. That's a great technique. Guys, this is just practical. Right? Right. Yeah, Scott. And remember when we're doing this, this is like, hey, you got to cook for your family.

You got to go to the grocery store, pick up some meat and get dinner on the table within an hour that's what we're going for here it's very practical pragmatic first cut of me i like is the pecania no i've never heard of that which is crazy because i've told you about it at least 20 times every time you ask me what could i send you a picture what cut a steak is that that's a pecania pecania is the top petite sirloin it has a giant fat cap on it like a new york strip but it's tender like a filet mignon you can see the grain inside too really easy to cut Is it expensive? No, it's the cheapest cut of meat on this, on this menu.

I get it from my local butcher at like $599 to $6.99 a pound. I get the whole pecania, though. I don't have them cut it for me. I just get the whole thing. I butcher it myself. If you're going to get it pre-butchered, it's like $10.99 to $11.99 a pound, which is still cheaper than the other cuts on this menu. Any tips on, you know, going to the butcher, you're picking out a steak.

Are you grass-fed only? Yeah, I am. I try to be grass-fed, grass-fed, grass-finished only. I mean, not perfect. I have to, you know, abandon that sometimes depending on budget and whatnot. But yeah, find a local butcher you trust, build a relationship with them. It comes with a lot of perks. For one, you can get clear sourcing on all the meat.

I think that's important. You don't want to be buying meat from, that's imported from other countries necessarily. You want to support American farmers the best you can. I'm a firm believer in that. It's also a higher quality meat. Um, the standards here, even though we don't really trust the FDA, the standards on beef are actually pretty good. So, um, support local American ranchers and build a relationship with the butcher because what happens is like, so I get that rate of $599 a pound for pecania. That's not public, but I buy so much meat from this guy when I walk in, he'll just tell me, hey, I ordered you to pecania.

You want it? And yes, sir, $5.99 a pound. Like you get that kind of hookup. So find a butcher you like. You can talk to him about where he's sourcing. meat from, yada, yada. All right, the next cut tray is going to be a rib eye. Second best cut of meat on the steak. This is, it's incredibly juicy, but it's marbled. So if you're not someone that likes fat content, this will not be the cut for you. It's marbled throughout, but the key of the ribby is the outside wheel of meat. It's hard to see in this picture, but it's called the spinalis. That is the most tender part of the entire cow. It's more tender than a flamen mignon. It's delicious.

More tender than a filet mignon? Correct. Yes. It's very airy, but you get that fat blend with it. It's delicious. The inside of the ribeye is more like a filet mignon, but not quite that tender. It's a little tougher, but it's still really tender, juicy. Ribi is my favorite steak to grill, and you have to be a little careful with it. Like, if you're like a guy who likes medium rare steaks, ribi is probably not for you.

A rabbi is best served at medium. because you have to render that fat out. If you don't render that fat out, you're going to get chewy bites. It's going to be hard. Or you're going to be sitting there trimming off all the fat while you're eating it, which is no fun for anybody. The whole point of a ribby is it's got that fat content. So number three on the list is going to be a New York strip.

New York strips, usually you can find sales on New York strips at some grocery store or butcher at any given point in time. You know, if you just look at the sales going on, they're a very versatile steak. They're really good on the grill, but they're also good in the pants here. So, you know, and affordable, relatively affordable. But they're not as tender as a rabbi, not as tender as a filet, not as tender as a pecania, but they're lean. They got some nice fat content that's easy to trim off if you don't like it.

If you do like it, you can just make sure you render that out and eat it. Last cut of meat here is the filet mignon. The flay mignon. A lot of people think this is the elite steak. You go to a French steakhouse. You know, you're probably ordering a filet. You could do a lot with the flavor. They just have less flavor than the other three cuts.

So for me, they're not my favorite. They are my wife's favorite. They are really easy to cook, though, because they're so lean. You don't have a lot of fat to render out. You can really build a nice crust on them. Anyways, I don't really mess with other steak. When I order a cow from a farm, I just have them make everything else into ground beef. Visit BetMGM Casino and check out the newest exclusive.

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Discover coffee plus on espresso.com. Let's move on to how we're going to prepare the steak. First step, step one. This is my foolproof step one throw it in the microwave This is my foolproof ultimate steak guide Okay get your steaks heavily coated in salt You want to do this like an hour before you cook if you can And when I say heavily coated I mean like very generous coating on all sides of the steak

No other seasoning This is a lot I see all these steak rubs people use don't use those those are disgusting they're bad for you. They also stop you from cooking the steak correctly because they create a barrier between the steak in the pan. The steak will not absorb, you know, garlic powder or black pepper or coriander. The steak will absorb salt.

So there's no barrier between the steak in the pan. When you're cooking it, the whole goal of cooking a steak is not only temperature control, but you want a nice crust. All the flavor in your steak comes from the crust. So, yeah, get a heavy coat of salt on there. Rest on the counter for a minimum. of 30 minutes before the cook.

There's a reason we want it resting. We want to get it the exterior of the steak close to room temperature. And the reason for that is the number one challenge with cooking steaks and getting the ultimate crust is temperature control once the stakes go in. So when you drop an ice cold steak into a pan, it immediately drops the temperature of the pan,

like enough degrees to mess you up. And so when you rest that steak on the counter, It not only absorbs all that salt, but it kind of gets the exterior temperature to a point where it's not going to immediately drop the temperature of your pan 20 degrees and ruin your cook. All right. Step two. Pat the steak is completely dry. This is a crucial step. You cannot avoid it.

If you've salted your steaks, your steaks are sweating. Okay. There's moisture. Ideally, you're letting your steaks rest long enough to absorb as much of that moisture as possible. That's how you get a really juicy cut. but if you don't have time, this is a practical guide, if you don't have the time to wait an hour, you got to go pat those steaks completely dry

before they go in the pan. That moisture on the steak will create a barrier between the pan and the fat that you're cooking the steak in. Please, please, please pat your steaks completely dry. It is absolutely crucial. Even if you're grilling it too, by the way, if you want nice grill marks, you've got to pat the steaks dry. Step three.

Preheat. my preference is a stainless steel pan. I'll tell you why. There's other good options. A cast iron pan is great. Any type of clad, like a hex clad or an iron clad is also fine. Stainless steel is the best for crust development. And then what we're going to do after we cut the steak.

Yeah, after we cook the steak. But you want to preheat it. You want it ripping hot at first. Okay. And then once it gets ripping hot, you're going to add your beef tallow or your ghee. I do not cook in any oil. I do not cook in any sprays. It's got to be beef tallow, which you can make yourself or you can just bite at the store or ghee butter.

The reason for those two, specifically, is they've higher smoke points than like regular butter or olive oil. Also, most olive oils are not good to heat up. You lose the nutrient value and they actually become toxic to your body when you warm them. So you want to go beef tallow or ghee as the fat you're cooking in. Step four. Steaks go in the pan. Okay, once you've done all this, steaks go in the pan.

If there's no sizzle, you've got to hear a sizzle. If there's no sizzle, immediately yank that sucker out. We're trying to create a crust, and if there's no sizzle, the bond that you need from the steak to the pan isn't ready. The pan is not hot enough, okay? So if there's no sizzle, you pull it out and you keep preheating it. All right, here is the technique we're going to use.

Okay, we're going for what we call a malliard reaction. This is where the amino acids on the exterior of the steak break down and create a crust. That crust is flavor. Okay, we're caramelizing those amino acids, that exterior of the steak to create a crust. That is, that's the money. That's how you get the ultimate steak. So what I do, 90 seconds per side with a weight or a press. I have a big cast iron weight that goes right on top of my steaks.

90 seconds aside. So 90 seconds, flip 90 seconds, and then you pull it out. Step two. Once you pull it out, you rest it for five minutes. What this does is all the energy you just put into that steak, it evenly distributes it through the steak. Because what we don't want is a really nice crust,

but a raw steak in the middle. We want this really nice, even cook. It's not going to look pretty the first time you do this. Okay, the first 90 second flip, It's going to come out. It's going to look a little gray, maybe a little bit of color development. But trust me on this, let it rest for five whole minutes at least. Okay, step three, get your pans back up the temperature.

Then the steak goes back in for 90 more seconds per side with the weight. Okay, then you're going to pull it and you're going to rest it for five more minutes. The steak should be cooked now. I temp the steak at this point. I pull my stakes at like roughly 130. If it's a rib eye, I go 135. But we're pulling at 130. I like medium rare to just medium.

This is the 90-second method is almost perfect for that every single time. You go 90-90, five-minute rest, then 90-90. The overrun from the five-minute of the second rest will get you up to 140 degrees. You're in safe territory. It's perfect. Step four. Okay. This is how we're going to make the ultimate topper.

We're going to create a pan sauce. And this is why we use stainless steel. When you use stainless steel, you create something called fond. See that gooey stuff on the bottom of that pan right there? That's sticky, all that caramelization. That's called fond. And that fond is flavor. And that's what we're going to make a pan sauce out of.

And so what we're going to do is we're going to drop. I like to go in with a little bit of white wine, okay, a little bit of balsamic vinegar. And we're going to scrape all those bits off. And we're going to add a really good chicken stock. or a beef stock. I like chicken stock. And it's going to create a sauce. And you're going to cook that sauce down until it can coat the back of your spoon.

Make sure you scraped all the sticky bits off the bottom of the pan. Okay. Once that sauce is thick enough to coat the back of your spoon, you're going to drop like a tablespoon of Dijon mustard in. And you're going to take it off the heat and then add two tablespoons of butter. And you're going to whisk that together. It's going to create a sauce. emulsification and it's going to be this really beautiful thick brown zip sauce that is absolutely

delicious if you want to garnish it with some rosemary or some garlic or some aromatic feel free to do that you don't have to though the sauce slaps on its own the natural salt content in the fond is is enough to flavor the sauce so that is the step-by-step guide to the ultimate steak the pragmatic step-by-step guide and now scott i want to know if you have any questions yeah you don't you don't to finish it in the oven? No. Why not? Reverseer is a lie.

It's really, really easy to mess up. Reverseer takes the tenderness out of steaks. Or finishing in the oven, I guess that would be a forward sear first, finish it in the oven. No, the only reason you'd ever finish a cut of meat in the oven is if it's super thick. So if you're working with like a two and a half inch thick filet mignon or a tomahawk rabbi or something, that's a time. It's acceptable to finish it in the oven. But if you go throw that New York strip that's on the screen into the oven, Scott, by the way, see that crust on that New York strip?

That is freaking beautiful. You made that? See how rendered that fat is? You did that? Yeah. You know how many steak pictures I send you, Scott? How many? I don't know.

It's like a stupid amount, isn't it? Yeah. My phone's going off and my wife's like, what is that? I'm like, Brett's sending me another picture of his meat. Yeah. So no, don't finish your state. So if you throw like a New York strip like that. the oven to finish it quote unquote you that thing's going to come out like a brick and all that

tenderness and that juiciness we really worked hard for it just you just threw it all away so i get another question for you yeah what's the ideal pairing with uh like this this new york trip are we going mashed potatoes are we going broccoli for sides yeah it depends what your diet is um any type of starch is good in my opinion i like like i'm on a anti-inflammatory diet so i eat yams a lot of Japanese yams. I'll do a yam. I'll do a asparagus, broccoli's great. So I usually go with one green and then and then a starch. Straightforward though. Mashed potatoes are great. I like to rice my potatoes. So I have like a riser. It just makes them super duper creamy and smooth. And you can almost serve the steak like right on top of a little pile of mashed potatoes. But yeah, anything else?

questions? It's easy. This is easy, guys. Yeah, yeah. No, I think this is, I think this is great. I think this is really entertaining and informative. If you're going to try Brett's method and cook a steak, you should send Brett some pictures. Send some picks. See, you've made one prettier than this one. Yeah. Let me know how it goes. If you, if you're in the subscriber Discord, reach out in Discord. If you have questions, if you panic in the middle of your cook, let me know. You can DM me on Twitter. as well. We'll figure this out together. Sound good? Sounds good. All right, folks, that's going to do it for us today. We will be back with our Sunday night reaction series that comes out Monday morning. Thanks for sticking with us. We are out.