Fantasy Football Daily - Exploiting ESPN Fantasy Football ADP - Best and Worst Values (2026)

Episode Date: August 12, 2026

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Exploiting the biggest ADP values on ESPN. Today we're going to be going through the biggest targets and avoids over on the ESPN platform. I've got my guys, Joe Dolan and Tom Browley to come through today and break all of this down. We're going to basically building you an ESPN draft plan for this podcast today, guys, going through some of the players that are just completely overpriced, underpriced over on ESPN. It is Fantasy Football Daily and we are back. Thanks for joining us on this Tuesday. Guys, ESPN ADP is not very sharp this year. I'm just going to be honest.

The ADP across the industry feels less sharp this year than the previous years. I think the last two years in particular felt pretty good. This year, it's a little all over the map. So we're going to be getting into the biggest values to get you guys ready for your drafts over on ESPN. Joe, Tom, how's it going, guys? I'm doing okay, Graham. Tom, good to be with you after giving me the week off. as I was down to borrow from John Hanson, New Orleans.

ESPN, guys, important this year. Graham, I know you have a lot of thoughts about the sundowning of NFL fantasy, and we can get emotional about that. We can get sentimental about that. But ESPN inheriting, I think, a lot of those NFL leagues. And from their app, they are transitioning over to ESPN. So a lot of new, maybe new players on ESPN this year. an exploitable site, Sleeper is exploitable.

I have to be honest, I think Yahoo's a little less exploitable this year. Credit to them. I wish I wasn't doing so many leagues on Yahoo. Now that I hear from that. But we'll break it down with ESPN with you. Yeah, ESPNs are usually a little bit tighter. I know they do factor Mike Clay's rankings and projections into them, but it does look like there are some edges to be had.

I think Sleeper right now is the weakest ever, ever, ever, thing. I'm checking their 80p and it is barely moving. They have not been adjusting it. So that is definitely the best. But it does look like we can find some pretty good values here on ESPN as well. Yeah, ESPN is right right now for my money. I think it's the least sharp. And you're right. It's usually Mike Clay like usually, you know, his projections are very sharp, very, very good, love Mike Clay. But usually like that's kind of like the opposite we see ESPN is usually one of the sharper ones. Joe, to your point on Yahoo, I was looking at this, they don't, actually sort by ADP. They have like somebody doing like a rankings. So basically,

X rank is yeah. I'm not sure. I'm not sure who does the X rank. I'm not sure how that's how that's done. But I have noticed that that is a lot sharper on Yahoo. And Joe, you mentioned NFL is merging with ESPN this year. I think that's actually a part of the reason why we're seeing less sharp ADP. NFL network ADP was never very good. So let's get into it. We'll break down all the biggest targets and values. Tom, you do an excellent job breaking down basically every player that's like even a couple spots, you know, basically ahead of the ranking on ESPN and your ADP values article. That'll come out probably next week or the following week. You put that up for subscribers. So make sure you're on the lookout for that. For this, I just

basically pulled out some of the players that I know that's going to be on that list for Tom and some of the biggest values. And we'll get started here at quarterback. Quarterback ADP is very bad at ESPN. I think this is by far the weakest position, maybe receiver. might be the second weakest position over at ESPN. There are two just massive values. We'll get started with the biggest one. Justin Herbert is going at 109 overall QB 15 and 80P. For us over at Fantasy Points here,

we've got Herbert at QB9 and kind of like a big long flat tier, along with Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert and Brock Purdy. This is Herbert's big chance, right? Like last season he was back in QB1 for most of the season, now gets a big play caller upgrade. Last season, Herbert was very solid, Tom. I think most weeks we were kind of relying on him, like I said, back in QB1 numbers. He was a QB10 by points per game, right in that tier with Caleb Williams and Dak Prescott, borderline top eight, fantasy quarterback.

This is the year we're kind of expecting him to take another step forward. This price is very, very nice. QB 15 off the board. I'm sure you're in on this price. Yeah, I love this price. This is actually, I wanted to draft a little bit more Justin Herbert this year. This is your spot. Yeah, this is going to have to be my spot over at ESPN.

I haven't been doing a whole lot of redrafts just yet, but Sleeper and even some of the best ball drafts, he is priced more like the QB8, QB9, right in that range, as you said. So I just have not been drafting as much as him as I thought coming into the off season. But a lot to like a lot, a lot to like about him with Mike McDaniel coming in. And this offensive line is going to be key for. him those Rashaun Slater and Joe Alt both getting back healthy and solidifying that group and Mike McDaniel he's been working with him to get the ball out a little bit quicker this off season and trying for him not to hold on to the ball so much maybe create some more after the

catch opportunities for these receivers so yeah yeah this is this is the spot where I want to go if I want to be drafted Justin Herbert you know this is a huge difference from most of the other platforms that I have seen mostly in that QB8 to QB10 range. Kind of that that huge tier, as you said, after like the Jalen Hurts, Drake May, Jaden Daniels, that tier. But he's usually at the top of it because there is a lot of, a lot of optimism for this Chargers offense with Mike McDaniel coming in.

I think this is just one of those guys where you rank them in, especially in a one quarterback league, you rank them by tier, right? And like if I'm going to be drafting in this tier and Justin Hurst, Herbert's the cheapest of the tier, and I'm looking at who's going kind of right after Justin Herbert. Right before him goes Patrick Mahomes. I prefer Justin Herbert straight up. Brock Purdy goes right before him. I rank them similarly.

But right after Justin Herbert go Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield, and then Kyler Murray. So I definitely prefer Jared Goff to all three of those guys. He has more mobility than Goff, a little bit more mobility than Mayfield. And Kyler Murray apparently has not been very impressive right now. apparently that quarterback battle between 9 and Kyler Murray. They're fighting it with pool noodles right now. So Justin Herbert stands out to me as like the cheapest of that really appealing tier you referenced, Graham. This is such an easy buy.

I know we like to poke fun at, you know, Herbert and all his hypotheticals. And believe me, I have done my fair share of that. But this is a guy who it's easy to see why you like him for fantasy this year. Yeah, you used to call him what, Mr. What If, Joe? It's If Man. If man. If man. I didn't come up with that. It's just, I'm sure you've seen it.

It's the picture of Justin Herbert in a Chargers colored Superman costume. And instead of a Superman logo, just says if across his chest. Because like that's what, well, if he had his linemen, if his receivers were this, if that, you know. But look, no excuses. No excuses this year, right? The price is great for Justin Herbert. Yeah, there's no excuses. Like as it stands right now, you have those two linemen back.

You have one of the sharpest offensive minds in football. You've got a great backfield. Hopefully it's not going to be a three-man backfield behind him. You've got Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, Arande Gatson, you're so deep at tight end. This is setting up for Justin Herbert this season. By far the best setup he's ever had. You know, even the Keenan Allen, Mike Williams,

those receiver rooms are pretty good, but I think this is by far the most talent he's ever had around him. He's definitely got some talent at his, you know, with the girlfriend he's got too. Definitely a little bit of talent there as well. Herbert, listen, I think in terms of, terms of ADP, I think Tom just said it right. Like if you're looking for just specific like values at quarterback across platforms, Herbert on ESPN, this is the biggest price discrepancy we

see. I was looking at ADP this morning on Yahoo. He's going in the 90s sleeper. He's going in the 90s. So yeah, I think if you're if you're looking to get some Herbert late round Herbert, this is specifically the spot for it. One other quarterback that looks like just a really nice value, kind of in that same vein where it's like, you know, we're looking to cross the industry, just looking at prices across the industry. Trevor Lawrence is going in the, you know, mid to, you know, late 80s on most platforms, but here on ESPN, he's going at 95 overall. I didn't put him as like a just as big of a value as Justin Herbert.

I think Herbert's just a slightly better value. They're both going in that same tier like Joe was talking about. But, you know, Lawrence, this price, QB12 is really nice. He closed out the season guys as just one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football. He, after the buy, he was the QB1 in fantasy points per game, beat out Matthew Stafford. was QB5 by EPA per dropback. So he was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football. I'm not expecting Joe, him to, I'm not expecting Lawrence to be QB1 by any means,

but he certainly has top eight upside attached to what, you know, everybody is kind of considering top five play caller and Liam Cohen and these great weapons here. Are you in on Lawrence this season? I don't know if you and I've talked too much about Lawrence. Well, this is another guy who's kind of been an if man in his career, but guess what we've seen from Trevor Lawrence? Over the last five weeks of the regular season last year, he was the number one quarterback in all of fantasy football.

And that's coinciding with the unlocking of Parker Washington. Obviously, the addition of Jacobi Myers last year, both of whom are back. No Travis H.N. in the back field this year, but we seem to get positive reports every day about Bachel Tutin and even Chris Rodriguez. The offensive line should be fine for Trevor Lawrence. like Trevor Lawrence Justin Herbert I've mentioned that a hundred times on this podcast If you listen to John Hanson's show with Brian Drake He's kind of called him like Trevor Herbert or Justin Lawrence

Whatever these are his favorite quarterback targets And ESPN's ADP perfect for that I'm probably if I have an ESPN draft I'm going to try to leave my draft with one of these two guys They're both cheap and they have high upside As easy a click as there is on the board Yeah it makes a whole lot of sense to wait at the quarterback position if you're drafting over there, if you can have one of these two options,

especially a lot of the, you know, your teammate, your ligmates drafting their quarterback, you can kind of wait a little bit and get these end of the, you know, the quarterback run and makes a whole lot of sense to start with Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert. And Trevor Lawrence, we've seen these flashes a couple of times so far in his career, but I don't know about you guys, but this one feels a little more sustainable. The receiving core is much, much more solidified here. I mean, we got Travis Hunter, the number two overall pick. He is the fourth option for him.

This is a deep group, even if you look at Brent and Strange at the tight end position, there's no lack of weapons here for Trevor Lawrence. And it's the coaching for me, though. Liam Cohen has really come in here. He's, you know, a great offensive mind, back-to-back years with, His quarterback setting career highs and touchdown passes. Baker Mayfield threw for 41 the year before in 2024. So he is really very quickly here in Tampa Bay and now last year in Jacksonville

kind of solidified himself as maybe a top five offensive mind in the league. So I mean, it makes this one does feel a little bit more sustainable this season with Trevor Lawrence. I know we've been, you know, it's been a little bit of a roller coaster and it's been a lot more dip. than rises. But I think this one is a little bit more sustainable this upcoming season. So we can get them, as Joe said, he was a QB1 during the fantasy playoffs. We saw him put up monster production. Maybe that Jacksonville defense takes a step back and they're playing in a lot of high-scoring games.

This makes a whole lot of sense. And we can draft Brian Thomas Jr. or Parker, Washington right around this same, you know, the couple rounds here, maybe get a little. little bit of a stack here with Trevor Lawrence. So makes a whole lot of sense to me in the 90s. Yeah, I'm with you, Tom. I think it is a part, the big part is the coaching staff, right? Like just two years ago, Baker Mayfield was fully healthy, wasn't hurt like he was last year. He was QB3 in fantasy points per game under Liam Cohen and Cohen's last year with the Bucks. And then, you know, Lawrence, it took him two months to kind of get, you know, get ready, get,

get comfortable in the scheme. But then he closed out the season on a massive tear. I mentioned this yesterday when I was talking to Ryan Heath about just some of the players that, you know, he's kind of scared fading. We talked through the Jags just briefly, but Lawrence, he's got some real rushing upside as well. He got about 30% of the carries inside the five last season. And, you know, obviously he's huge. He's 6'6. He's got the ability to kind of be, you know, a little more involved at the goal line this season. There's probably some rushing touchdown upside that's not fully captured.

I don't think in this ADP. Matthew Stafford was somebody that we absolutely love. at fantasy points last year. We loved Pooka Nukuwa. We were drafting all the Pooka Nukuwa we could get, especially after the Stafford fear, uncertainty, doubt that happened last season with the back injury. This price, though, is it's really the only price over on ESPN that I think kind of stood out to me as like a clear overvalue at quarterback. He's going 78 overall, 79 overall. He's the QB8 in ADP. Joe, I'll throw it back over to you. Stafford is correctly priced on a lot of platforms, actually. I think the fantasy markets have done a good job kind of understanding where the

regression's going to come from, right? I mean, he's just not going to sustain that 7, 8% touchdown rate, Joe. But Stafford, I think, is a clear void here in this kind of like mid-70s, early 80s pocket. Yeah, this is just a stupid ADP because Matthew Stafford is going to be a viable target on basically every other platform for me if I'm waiting on quarterback. But this is just pricing him near his ceiling. 46 touchdowns last year. Guys, he won the NFL MVP. He's thrown for over, he's played what, 17 years in the NFL. He's thrown 40 or more touchdowns three times. He's thrown 30 or more touchdowns just four times, including the 40 touchdown seasons. It's just, it's not easy for Matthew Stafford to sustain this. He needs to stay healthy and produce at the same level he produced

last year in order to pay off this ADP, and that's just not a bet I'm willing to make. Yeah, and he's coming off a really long season, Joe, played into February, played those extra games in, well, not into February, into late January, played a lot of games, though. So we started last year with wondering if he was going to be able to even, you know, start the season with his back issues. And he was in that medical van that he, you know, the Winnebago that was at training camp. So the issues are real.

They go out and select the quarterback with the first pick. So there's always. the potential that something pops up with Matthew Stafford and especially this creaky back, but it's not even Matthew Stafford. It is a, it's a little bit of a fragile build here here with the Los Angeles Rams. If something happens to puka Nakua, if Devante Adams in his hamstrings start to act up, it starts to get really thin, really fast with this receiving course. So we're kind of, you know, this is the only place where he's really priced near his ceiling.

the markets have, you know, the platforms have done a good job and the ADP markets have done a good job of kind of pricing in the regression. And he's like QB 15 in a lot of other spots. And, you know, fantasy market is so much sharper now than it was just like 10 years ago. But is he capable of doing it again? Yes. This team could obviously be one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. But most likely it's going to take a step back. And if we look at that Rams defense as well, it's going to be much better this year with Miles Garrett and probably Aaron Donald in the near future.

So maybe they're not playing in so many high scoring games as well. So there's a lot of reasons to fade Matthew Stafford at this price. Much rather draft him in some other platforms if I'm drafting him. Yeah, Tom, to your point, he's going 100 overall or 101 overall on Yahoo, 115, I believe, on Sleeper, which is more than fine price. That's about where he should be going and kind of like that. second tier, the top of the second tier of like the QB2s, around QB13, QB14. You mentioned the defense. I think that's a big aspect here too.

You know, last season, the Rams, you know, they were kind of chasing the MVP for Stafford. We'll see if they're going to do that this year. I think this is the best defense on paper in football. I can't wait to see Aaron Donald line up next to Miles Garrett. That is going to be absolutely ridiculous. Real quick, Trey, we got a comment from chat from AJ Pierce saying that this video should be for fantasy points subscribers only.

It's too valuable. Hey, listen, I hear you. I hear you, but we're many of the people here at Fantasy Points. We got to give everybody a little taste of the goods. And like I said, Tom's article will be behind the paywall, and it will have all the values, all the targets and avoids that you'll need to know. Over there on FantasyPoint.com, use code Fantasy on the plans page, fantasypoints.com slash plans.

Use code Fantasy. Save yourself 10% off Tom's ESPN. Allow me to save. Yahoo Sleeper values. The Fantasy Points front. office is behind the paywall. That's not, that's not available for, so people have been begging for our, our league importer to improve. Well, we've done it. Yeah, big time. Yeah, big time, our guy Jay Wood, who's one of our new developers here at Fantasy Points. He has just knocked it

out of the park. I was using front office this morning for a slow draft. And yeah, it is, it is a mega, mega addition to the site. Honestly, and I'm just, I'm not just saying this because I own the company and run the company with you guys, but truly, the front office tool is worth the $60 alone. It is an unbelievable addition to the site. It's not just going to help you in your draft. It's going to help you with waiver wire pickups, trades this season. Our trade tool is incredible, all the stuff that we've been working on behind the scenes

for months. It is awesome to get it up on the site and looking very, very sexy, might I add. Let's keep it going here, guys. We'll talk about some running back targets on ESPN. And I do think ESPN's ADP for running backs is generally pretty good this year. There are just two running backs that stood out as massive values. The next two players we're going to talk about. I have them ranked at like the one-two turn.

They're going at like the two-three turn on ESPN. The first one we'll talk through is Chase Brown. He's going at 26 overall, RB 13 and ADP. The floor is just really, really high with Brown. He's, you know, been basically locked in top seven workload, top eight workload by expected fantasy points and back-to-back seasons, Tom. I'm just looking at this as like the floor is very, very high. And if Joe Burrow and this bingles offense runs into some just like massive touchdown numbers,

Brown is going to absolutely deliver. You know, just think about it. Starting your draft on ESPN, you get Jumeir Gibbs or Bejohn Robinson at one or two. If you get the one or two overall pick, you come back and you get Chase Brown at the two-three turn. He's going 26 overall. It's just a disrespectful price for this player. Yeah, he's showed up very, very, you know, high ceiling last year towards the back half of the year and even two years ago.

So last year, the numbers weren't nearly as impressive over the entire season, but Joe Burrow gets hurt early in the season and the offense is kind of sputtering for a couple of weeks before Joe Flacco gets in and Joe Burrow eventually gets healthy. So we look at what they did. There's not a whole lot going on here in this backfield, still Somage Pirine as the top back up here as the handcuff. Tosh Brooks was a disappointment as a rookie last year. So they're running back with the same running back room.

We'll see if they make any additions later in training camp. But they seem to be liking Chase Brown. And there's lots of talk here this offseason. It's the league wide here. Everybody's going more under center, running more play action. And even the Cincinnati Bengals are going to be doing that. Joe Burrow gave his consent. He's one of these quarterbacks that likes to sit in the shotgun,

and it's not great for our running backs. But they, you know, they're one of these teams that's with the course of everybody that's going under center and they're joining it here. And Chase Brown, you know, close to five yards per carry average from under center, whenever Joe Burrough is under center. So just the evolution of the offense could be pretty beneficial here for Chase Brown. and if we look at what's going on at receiver, not a whole lot behind Jamar Chase and T. Higgins.

So a lot of reasons to really like Chase Brown. And a big one is also the offensive line. Has some continuity, actually has some upside with Amarius Mims, really coming into his own. And maybe he's going to take a huge step forward and maybe become one of the better tackles in the NFL. So everything's kind of adding up that Chase Brown might be a little bit undervalued. And this one isn't just,

ESPN. He is towards that that that second round running back tier. He's oftentimes at the back end of it and you know with some of the stuff that's going on with Omerian Hampton in the news here the last couple of days with the talk of three running backs. Maybe a guy like Chase Brown should be maybe moving up that list of the second round running backs. This is one of those things where you have to look at how you can build a team while exploiting ESPN ADP. If you have the number one overall pick in ESPN league and you take Jemir Gibbs or Bijon Robinson, whoever your preferences, Chase Brown by ADP is available to you at the two, three term. You can literally start your draft with Jemir Gibbs, Chase Brown, and Nico Collins.

Or if you want to get real feisty, start your draft with Jemir Gibbs, Chase Brown, and Brock Bowers. That is doable via ESPN ADP in a ton of leagues. And, you know, obviously third round reversal is out. of Vogue, though this year, actually, it might make some sense, given how I think Gibbs and Bejohn are so clearly above the rest of the field. That is just a cheat code if you end up with one of those picks on ESPN. Chase Brown does fit the profile as somebody who should be going on kind of the cusp, I think, of the first and second round, and he's just for whatever reason kind of slips under the radar. There's another guy like that at wide receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals, who we're not talking

about today. But you know, if you've listened to our shows, T. Higgins is a guy who's just so cheap across platforms, and I don't know why. But Chase Brown, this is a cheat code ADP right now. I mean, you can also get him. Let's say you start your draft with Puka. And you're like, no, I really do want the running back. But no, you can get Chase Brown as your running back one. And that is a heck of a way to start your draft. Yeah, the floor is just really, really high. I think some of the price thing here, Joe, is like Chase Brown got off to a really bad start last year. But he actually, he closed out the season, great. I mean, he was going over 100 yards from scrimmage like every single week. He was a league loser and then he was a league winner. It's not binary, not either or. Like he was just for one month,

he was, oh God, the worst pick you could make. And then it turns out if you, if you traded for him especially, but if you just sat there and were patient, he ended up winning new leagues. Yeah. And they've, you know, to Tom's point, they've just done absolutely nothing to this backfield. There's, there's nothing stopping Brown from having a very, very strong workload again this season. And the same vein, another great structural pick. Joe, I like your analysis. On ESPN specifically, it's easier than it is on most sites this year to kind of start either Puka or Chase and then come back and get a running back that you feel great about. Usually running back is kind of tapped out, you know, Sequin Barclay, O'Marion, Hampton, Derek Henry even. Most of those guys

go well before you kind of get your next chance at the two-three turn after you take your receiver. But this next player, Ken Walker, I put him right behind Chase Brown just because I slightly prefer Brown this season. I just think the receiving role is so good for Brown. It gives him that slightly higher floor. But Ken Walker's looking like a great value as well. Over on ESPN, he's going 25 overall. Tom, I know this is a player that you're very high on this season. RB12 ADP is very, very nice over there. Yeah, this is very tasty. He's a guy that was looking for a place where he could get maybe a belcout, belcow type of role. I was doing a little bit of traveling this weekend

and listened to one of the athletic football shows and Michael Sean Dugger who covers, you know, the Seattle Seahawks and I think he might be doing some national stuff now, but he's pretty tapped into the Seahawks. And he was saying Ken Walker was like secretly pissed behind the scenes at the work that he got last year. But he was such a good soldier. And, you know, they named him captain a couple of different times.

But, you know, he was secretly. kind of pissed and that's why you know they win a super bowl championship and he was looking to go somewhere else and he picked the kansas city chiefs because you know he thinks he could get a lot of work here in kansas and breschard smith and amari demarcato as the other running backs in kansas city so it's looking like walker's going to get a huge workload and that's been kind of the only thing that's really held him back he's been injured a bunch he's been you know splitting touches with zas Sharbonnet but looks like he could have a massive role in this backfield. We'll see the chiefs, you know, they select a lot on defense in the draft. They go get Kenneth Walker. Maybe this is a team

that's, you know, it's ever so slightly transitioning a little bit more towards the running game, putting more of an emphasis on that part of it. You know, take a little bit off of Patrick Mahomes plate coming off of an ACL and an LCL injury. So I totally see Kenneth Walker kind of being the guy that is the skill player for the chiefs who does a lot of the heavy lifting. And we got, you know, Rishi Rice coming back from a knee injury. Xavier Worthy's dealing with a shoulder injury already. Travis Kelsey's getting older and is on his last legs. So makes a whole lot of sense for the chiefs to rely on Kenneth Walker.

So getting him in the third round, I mean, what a start to the draft. If you go, maybe you select Bejohn or. maybe get Pooka Nakua with the third pick. You come back around and then you eventually get Kenneth Walker at the start of the third round. Sign me up for that all day. Love Kenneth Walker this year. I know some of our commenters are going to be upset about the Kenneth Walker glazing. But I think the situation just has changed.

There is no Zach Charbonnet here to energy vampire his way out of the coaching staff. A little Colin Robinson action, he just stands near the coaching staff and absorbs their energy and they just put Charbonnet in there. There's no Tyler Al Jir here. There is Kenneth Walker on a team that needs him. The receiving room is bad. Let's be honest. We're wish casting on a fifth round rookie receiver here in Cyrus Allen, 1810 to 1913.

So we're really, like the Kansas City Chiefs right now need this run game. Patrick Mahomes himself has said it. Hey, guys, I ran too much last year. This year, I think I'll just dump it off to Cane. on account of Kenneth Walker starts with a K and his number's nine. You see that? Let's see how that works. So I think I'm in on Kenneth Walker this year at this price. I think he can do more in the receiving game. I think they're going to give him some opportunities to do that. Like how many times does a defending Super Bowl MVP have a chip on his shoulder? Well, the team

that you carry to the Super Bowl, let you go in the offseason, buddy. That's a perfect opportunity for you to have a chip on your shoulder. I like Angry Ken Walker. Yeah, Angry Ken Walker. I think K-9 might be the most underutilized nickname in football. That is so badass. K-9 is friggin' awesome, man. I don't know why more people don't use it. But yeah, I mean, listen, I think with Walker specifically, I was talking to Chris Wecht, our projections are about this last week, actually,

just going through kind of like what we think this chief's offense is going to be. They've been top five, top three in pass rate, you know, basically for three, four straight seasons now. You know, even after losing Tyreek Hill, I mean, they were by far the most pass-heavy team in football when they had Tyreek. Even without him, they've been very pass heavy. I'm kind of looking at it. It's like maybe they still lean past heavy on early downs. I mean, it's still Patrick Freak of Mahomes. But a few more percentage points going towards that run game.

I think Walker might have a little underrated volume as well. I think the one big, the only thing that really kind of holds me back is this Chief's offense guys has kind of been just not, they've not been bad by any means. They've just not been great. They've just been like 12th in scoring for the last couple years. Maybe that's like the only thing that you can kind of point to in this offense. but. And a big reason why is they're not getting explosives on offense.

And that's why they went out and got Kenneth Walker. He's the, you know, finished behind Devon A. Chan in explosive runs. He's, you know, second most explosive yards since he came into the league. That's why you go out and get a Kenneth Walker to get more explosive plays on offense. Yeah, Joe, I think you mentioned the stat on a previous show, but the chiefs are what, they're dead last, an explosive run rate over the last two years. And it's like, by far the last thing. It's not even close.

I mean, look, Kareem Hunt, let's be honest he was good at the goal line but he he looked like he was running in quicksand um like by the way not for nothing have you seen some of the clips of rishi rice going viral on on twitter just like getting just like running like at like half speed now look it's training camp i understand that but like i'm starting to like almost like it's been almost a silent fade of me on rishy rice just i guess because of vibes i understand what kind of numbers he can put up but i'm wondering if i should go into like just a full full on just like put a flag behind it fade of Rishi Rice because there's so many

picks in the second and third round that I really like around where he's going. Yeah, I think he's fine in that tier, Joe, but I'm more concerned that, you know, maybe this, like I said, this offense is a little more run heavy this season. Rice has been kind of like a PPR scam, just getting all the volume in this offense. I think the same setup applies. You know, Travis Kelsey has probably lost a few steps. The receiver room, like you mentioned, it's just bad.

There's really nothing holding. Rice back from getting a massive target chair. But if the chiefs are just a little more run heavy this season, then yes, certainly Rice probably is going to, you know, maybe not be like a huge edge pick at the ADP that he's at right now at the two three turn. You know who is a huge edge pick on ESPN right now? David Freakin Montgomery, he's going 76 overall. He's the RB 24. On other platforms Montgomery is going in well into the mid 50s and 60s. On ESPN specifically, this is just like way too good of a price player that I. I've been very high on somebody that I've been, you know, targeting in all of my drafts,

but specifically, man, on ESPN, Tom, this is just really freaking good. He's going to be their lead back. I think there's a chance Woody Marks kind of cuts in a little bit on passing downs, maybe limits like a full-blown, like, Belcal roll. But Texans, their defense is going to keep them in a lot of positive game scripts. There's going to be plenty of games where Montgomery is going to be leaned on heavily in terms of volume. And I look at it this way.

It's like last year, this Texans backfield was by far the, the, biggest underperformers in terms of their expected fantasy points. They scored about three fewer fantasy points than expected per game just because they were so bad. Marks was so bad. Nick Chub, unfortunately, he was my guy for a long time, but he was pretty washed last season. David Montgomery is still a fantastic runner. Maybe he doesn't have like huge explosive play upside, but he's going to be able to give them a very solid, like sustaining four to four and a half yards per carry. Tom, 76 overall is just, it's an amazing price for him. Yeah, I was I was drafting over at ESPN. I mean, we were highlighting some of these great values in the second

and third round. But honestly, if you go, you know, running back in the first or second round, man, you could wait until maybe try to get David Montgomery in the sixth or seventh round, kind of take advantage of this, you know, low ADP and go with like a hero, a hero running back approach. I mean, David Montgomery might not have that top five type of ceiling or even top eight, top ten. But I, I, I, I, Just don't see, I mean, I don't see many scenarios where he is finishing as like a massive disappointment outside of some injuries or maybe him just completely falling off a cliff. But he was still playing at a high level in Detroit.

There's at least a possibility where he does get Belcal type of work in Houston. We'll see how much Woody Marks has factored in there. But that's one of the things that coaches love about David Montgomery. He's great in past protection. We know that was an issue at the end of the season last year with the Texans. C.J. Straub, you know, he was god-awful in that playoff run that they had. And a lot of it was because of the offensive line. So hopefully he gets some of those pass protection reps.

And they have attacked that offensive line a little bit, at least the interior of it. They did draft Keone Rutledge. Some good camp buzz coming out of Houston from him so far at the, the, the, 26 those were all picked that they used on him. So maybe this offensive line can be a little bit better, especially along the interior. That's where David Montgomery is going to do some of his dirty work is between the tackles.

So catch a few balls. I mean, this is the kind of setup I like for a running back. And he was another one of these guys, kind of like Kenneth Walker. He wanted a bigger role, basically asked the Lions, hey, can you trade me? And the Lions obliged. And they got some compensation.

for him, but this is a guy that wanted a lot of work, and he was kind of tired of losing touches to Jemir Gibbs like he did at the end of the last season whenever Dan Campbell took over the play calling. So he's going to get that opportunity in Houston. He is once again going to be seeing a lot of touches down there. Somebody needs to explain to me the downside case of this pick, because I don't see it. I don't see it either, Joe. I just don't see it. At this ADP, it's like a risk-free pick. Yeah, I mean, I think it's probably more likely he returns like third round value than it is. He returns 10th round value. That's the way I view this pick, which makes this an easy click for me on the board.

There's a couple of boring running backs in that range. Tony Pollard is another one. I like Montgomery more than Pollard. But he's another one who like, if you're just kind of waiting on maybe a Judarian Price who's also going in that range to kind of break out, well, you have these guys, these veterans. at the beginning of the year who can kind of buoy you. You know, I reached out to my guy from the Texans, Cody Stutes, and he said, Montgomery's going to get a ton of work. He's having a great runout in training camp right now.

The Texans that last year were the second worst team in success rate on plays inside the 10-yard line. Only the Raiders were worse. Obviously, offensive line has a lot to do with this. But David Montgomery, over the past like three seasons, one of the single most effective players inside the 10-yard line by success rate, by EPA per play, this guy just gets it done near the goal line. It is one area where the Texans were absolutely lacking last year.

And I know they highlighted David Montgomery as a player to cure that. Yeah, that's my only concern, Joe, is the offensive line. You know, this offensive line should be improved this season, but it's still like a bottom five, bottom eight unit, maybe even bottom three. But, you know, that is a concern, yes. It is a, it is a concern. It's maybe my only concern. But, bro, I mean, it's 75 overall.

It's like, I don't really even care too much about that. We're going to make some terrible picks in this range after the six, seventh round. David Montgomery strikes me as probably one of the best picks that you can make on the board in that pocket. Tom, you mentioned CJ Stroud, yeah, the last time we saw him, that playoff game was very, very ugly. But, you know, I think the hate maybe has gone a little too far with Stroud. He averaged more EPA per dropback last season than Caleb Williams and Bo Nicks, two players who have kind of been in vogue a little bit, specifically for fantasy, obviously. but yeah listen i i don't think shrouds like a world beter he's not going to be somebody who's

going to like completely elevate this offense but he's got some great receivers he's finally got a good running back and like i mentioned at the top i think the biggest thing is houston is going to be in a lot of positive game scripts this season as we know with running backs outside of like chris mcalfrey and devon a jane unless you've got just like an insane receiving role running backs are very game script dependent for their volume and houston is going to provide from montgomery with plenty of volume. We'll switch over to receivers here. And like I mentioned at the top of the show, I thought running back was fine on ESPN. I think tight end's also fine. ESPN's wide receiver ADP list is bad, like legitimately bad. And we'll get started with Mike Evans, a player that I've kind of

struggled with this offseason. But now I fully come back around. It's kind of forced my hand. Ricky Pirsall, unfortunately, our guy just can't stay healthy. Mike Evans is going 97 overall on ESPN, wide receiver 33. I'm laughing because it is such a ridiculously good value at this point. My concern going into this offseason was like, okay, Evans has been one of the premier target earners in football for two years now, you know, top 12 in targets per outrun back-to-back seasons. Now he's going on a team with, you know, Christian McCaffer, he's always going to get 20%

of the targets. Ricky Pearsall has looked very good, like George Kittle's coming back. Now you take Pearsall out of the equation. Kittle, you know, he's looking okay to return by September. He might be a little bit limited. But Joe, I'll throw it back to you. Mike Evans at 97 overall, wide receiver 30. He's actually come down in price.

I pulled these up on ESPN last week. I think it's just the quad injury. He's got this minor quad injury. He was going into the late 80s last week. He's actually come down about half a round now. It's pretty crazy over there. I'm more than fine with Evans at ADP. And if you're drafting this weekend,

I think he's got to be a player you've got to have in the back of your mind, back your pocket here in this range. Yeah, so obviously the downside is obvious, right? He's dealt with hamstrings injuries. he's dealing with the substation right now in San Francisco, so you've got that going against him. But the upside case is so obvious. Ryan Heath has been saying it all offseason.

He's like, I'd believe anything with Mike Evans. I'd believe that he's going to play five games, and it's going to look like one of the worst signings. And it could end up one of those like, hey, you remember when Mike Evans was on the 49ers type situations like we see with Julio Jones and the Eagles? Or he could lead the NFL in touchdown receptions. And you'd believe either outcome.

And I lean more towards the Mike Evans is going to lead the NFL and touchdown receptions outcome of that. Because right now, who else did they have Pearsall's out? Stribling, obviously, is a rookie. He's been dealing with some injury. DeMarcus Robinson's still there. They need him to step up. But I am in on Mike Evans this price. I mean, like, God, if he was going two rounds earlier than this, I'd still think it'd be a value.

So this is as easy a click at the wide receiver position as there is. Yeah, he's he's like wide receiver. You know, he's going off into like the 60 range on sleeper. And even that feels a little light. That's an easy target for me. Yeah, I agree. Over at underdog, he's like mid 40s right now in very sharp drafts over at best, you know, with the best ball drafts where they're trying to win millions of dollars.

So we can get Mike Evans in the 90s, sign me up all day that, you know, he could be wide receiver four or five. That mitigates a lot of that downside. potential, as you said, Joe, where Evans plays five games or he's on the injury report all the time and he's just frustrating, you can move on from him. You don't necessarily have to have a huge commitment to him. But as you said, there's that outcome where he does lead the league and receiving touchdowns. And he pairs perfectly with Brock Purdy, who's always been one of these high efficiency quarterbacks, you know, right, right with Lamar Jackson and TD rate, one of the better downfield throwers, which should pair well with Mike Evans.

And we track the average separation score. The ass still looks good for Mike Evans last year. So hopefully the ass is looking good again this year. And playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense, I think that's only going to help him, you know, get even more separation. He's going to get separation just from the play calling from Kyle Shanahan. So this is a slam dunk. let you know this is one of these situations where if i'm going into an esPN draft i am queuing up

not only just david montgomery but also mike evans so i am getting both of those guys you know even in the mid 90s um you know coming around if i'm picking in like the 80s i'll i'll get them maybe a little bit early and it's still a extreme value getting both of those guys yeah just like al pacino said got a great ass mike evin still got the great ass listen i i i've still got the great ass listen i i i've come around on Evans quite a bit and I think it really is just an ADP type thing like we're mentioned here on ESPN that the ADP is just border it's just disrespectful. 97 overall is is absolutely wild for him. I just pulled it up over on the FFPC which is obviously a lot sharper much more money involved in these drafts. He's going 56 overall. That's about

where I take him and you know Tom you mentioned in bestball and like underdog specifically he's going to the 40s. I think it is just chasing spiked weeks chasing touchdowns in that pocket. there's way less opportunity cost obviously is at you know eighth ninth round pick where he's going to ESPN you know even even as like a fifth or six round pick i think he's more than fine within that pocket running back has obviously been compressed upwards in drafts which has kind of pushed the receiver specifically the receiver two and receiver three tiers down quite a bit this year and evans with with no ricky pierceau potentially a hobbled george kittle yeah sign me up at this price i've definitely come come back around on mike evans

This one's going to be the dog whistle for our guy, Motion Man, Trey Camberling. Quentin Johnston is basically free on ESPN. He's going at 144 overall. That would basically imply unless you've got a super deep draft where you're drafting 20 players. Basically implies that he's your last round pick. Wide receiver 51.

It's a player who, in my opinion, should be a lot closer to Ladd-McConkie in both price and perception. You look at the last two seasons that these two guys have played, you know, 27 games together. Ladd actually has only 27 more targets than Quentin Johnson over the last two years. I think QJ has also been better after the catch and by miss tackles force per reception. He gets a big play collar upgrade here, Tom, obviously with Mike McDaniel involved. You know, I think there's going to be a lot of mouths to feed with this Chargers offense. Joe is just kind of outlining it a little bit when we were talking running back a little bit ago, or excuse me,

with Justin Herbert just a little bit ago. With QJ specifically, this price is just, I mean, it's wide receiver 51. It feels like a free square kind of all upside pick. Yeah, this is a nice little stack you could you make towards the end of your draft. Justin Herbert, outside 100 picks and then get him with QJ. This is this price is ridiculous. And it does sound like, you know, Mike McDaniel's going to use him a little bit more how we kind of expected him to be used coming out at TCU. He was kind of a demon after the catch. He, you know, you know, second most yards after after the catch per reception in college football in 2022, about nine yards of yak per reception. Didn't really get those opportunities in the last couple of years, but, you know, he's still

really good at it, 4.88 yards after the catch per reception. So I think Mike McDaniel has been emphasizing those quick drops and maybe getting some, you know, some drag routes and some design targets and I think some of those are going to go Quentin Johnson's way. So he's been a little bit more of just that downfield threat the last couple of years. So maybe his route tree will be a little bit more diverse this year. He's got to hold off, you know, Trey Harris and Lab McConkey. But at this price, there's not a whole lot of downside to taking Quentin Johnston. We've seen some of the spike weeks, especially early last last year it looked like.

We were going to get the full-blown breakout from him. He had a great first four weeks of the season, and then just like the rest of the offense, it kind of tailed off, and the offensive line became too much of a hindrance for this offense, but certainly has that massive potential. And if you just look at Quentin Johnston and Ladd-McConkey, I mean, Quentin Johnson, they didn't use a little bit more draft capital.

I think everybody just has Ladd-McConkey in their heads as clearly the more talented receiver. Quentin Johnson was a first round pick. And I think people's, you know, have been, you know, they've been colored a little bit by the drops early in his career. And, you know, he's kind of pushed down people's list because of that. But certainly has made some progress every year. Maybe we finally get that full-blown breakout here. And we don't have to, you know, it's 144 picks in the drafts.

It doesn't cost us anything to find out. I don't have anything else to offer there. I mean, like, there's just, when a guy is 144 picks into the draft, you have to ask yourself, what can go right as opposed to what can go wrong. I don't care about the drops. If it turns out he's a bust, all right, then you drop him from your roster. So I don't, absolutely no way is this in any way a bad pick. I just, I can't make a downside case on this. Yeah, there is no downside case.

And I think with ESPN specifically, he's getting pushed down because you got to draft defenses and kickers over the. there and he's getting pushed down behind guys who frankly have no upside like kalil shakir like he's been a fine ppr wide receiver three throughout his career but he has no upside he's going behind him he's going behind wondale robinson who again i like been a fine wide receiver three in ppr league jacobie mire's kind of the same thing uh both i i prefer q j to all those players uh there there is you know no downside risk at this price there is a lot of downside risk at carnell tate's adp though he's going 70 overall tom i'll throw it back over to you i know you wrote up karnes Arnold Tate is one of our players that we're avoiding here at fantasy points.

You know, obviously the prospect profile was not elite, but very, very good. He had a lot of target competition there at Ohio State. To me, the biggest question is just like, can Cam Ward really support two fantasy wide receivers and both Tate and Wondale Robinson? I know Robinson has been kind of memed at times for his fantasy production, but he legitimately took a step forward last year. Our guy, Brett Whitefield made some great points about, you know, he was running more downfield routes last season.

And he's always been a target earner. He's always been a decent target earner. So I'm looking at this as like Carnell Tate is going at 69 overall on ESPN. Romo Dunzee is going one pick behind him. Luther Byrne's going like five picks behind them. Both Bears receivers, I much prefer. I know Caleb Williams has been, you know, a little bit of a, you know, sore spot, I guess, in terms of just kind of figuring out which one of these receivers is going to pop for fantasy.

But I have a lot more confidence in this Bears offense than I. do in Carnell Tate and the Titans offense. I just can't do it. Six to nine overall. Give me David Montgomery. Give me my, maybe my first quarterback if I feel really good about maybe my first three receivers and first three running backs here. Yeah, it's really, it's difficult to build like a best case scenario where, you know, 12, you know, can he be a top 12 type of receiver as a rookie with Cam Ward? I just don't know if I can get there. Maybe Cam Ward takes a massive jump. He did start to make a little bit of progress toward the end of last season, but I mean, in our fantasy points data, he's near the bottom of the list and catchable

throw rate and EPA per dropback and yards per attempt. So it's going to take a massive leap from Cam Ward for Carnell Tate to get home and really show us some upside. I just think there's a little bit more downside than there is upside with Carnell Tate. This is a pocket where there's a lot of good wide receivers being selected, as you said, even like Christian Watson and Mike Evans is going much later here. So I just can't really build the extreme upside case that would want me selecting Cornell Tate in this range. He never really, as you said, at Ohio State, a lot of competition there, but he never really was the guy. I follow Penn State football. I never went into a game against Ohio State like, oh my God, we got to go

against Carnell Tate. It was always Marvin Harrison Jr. It was Emeka Ibuka. Now is Jeremiah Smith. It wasn't like, oh, God, we gotta slow down Cornell Tate. So maybe he can become that guy getting away from Ohio State and actually being the number one,

but it could take some time for it to happen. And Wondale Robinson is one of these guys that just always draws targets. So Carnell Tate is just a guy I have not been clicking on a whole lot. Jordan Tyson, I feel like, if we're looking at the rookie receivers, I feel like I can build a better upside case for him. Yeah, like you were talking about rookie receivers.

I was going to mention Jordan Tyson is the guy that I prefer at ADP. Another guy I haven't touched at ADP, even though he's now falling, which probably is going to make him more appealing is Mackay Lemon. Just the Eagles target tree is so spread out right now that he's another rookie receiver that at ADP I really have not been, I have not been touching. It Jordan Tyson was straight up a better prospect. I think he only fell just because the injury concerns. I have him ranked straight up ahead of Tate by one spot.

I just prefer Jordan Tyson. I think it's a better offense, better quarterback situation. There's going to be more pass volume as well. I think Titans are going to be pretty balanced this season with Dayball Call and plays there. I hate to say, but I'm completely out on Carnell Tate at this price. I don't think there's ever going to be a situation where I'm going to be targeting Tate. If he slips past ADP, I still feel pretty strongly. There's going to be a few players that I just prefer straight up over.

over Tate. He's a pretty tough click. One more final tough click at receiver. Maybe to a lesser degree than Tate, it's just one of the things where, like, I'm looking at Cortland Sutton at 87 overall, excuse me, 86 overall wide receiver 29 ADP. What do you win if you're right with Sutton? Like Jalen Wattle is probably going to lead this team in targets. At the end of last year, specifically Sutton was actually splitting with Pat Bryant. It seemed like his role was kind of trending down slightly at the end of last year. Pat Bryant was splitting. It was basically one A, 1B in terms of Target show at the end of last season. Sutton obviously has been a great touchdown maker, Joe, but I'm a little concerned here about this price. I think it's just,

it's a little strong. He's going right behind, excuse me, right ahead of Mike Evans by like three or four overall spots. I mean, I just can't get there. That's so dumb. That, like, I mean, like, and I'm not anticipating that that's going to be something that's going to happen in, like, actual leagues. Like, it's hard for me to fathom that. Because Mike, even for the Normies, Mike Evans has name value, right? Like, so it doesn't, it doesn't, that blows my mind. I was actually going to say that the bull case, and I mean, if you are just like, if you are just like hopped up on the most, the most opium you can possibly be hopped up on,

you could say Cortland Sutton, there is like a 0.1% range of outcome where he comes close to replicating with Devante Adams did last year. 60 catches double-digit touchdowns, right? Like, he is a touchdown score. You mentioned that, Graham. And sometimes you can say that in these middle rounds, that you're looking for a guy who can have those blow-up weeks. And even though he might not be the number one receiver,

which Devante Adams was not last year, he becomes the preferred guy down by the goal line. That's the bull case. But I can tell you, wide receiver 29. I have no interest in Cortland Sutton. Yeah, there's a little bit of camp buzz that Pat Bryant is already kind of catching up to Cortland Sutton. A lot of a lot of buzz about him really taking that step in his second season and the offense, you know, it's coming to him much quicker now and he looks a lot faster out

there. And, you know, out in Denver, that's been a little bit of the talk this past week, that Cortland Sutton has been rested multiple days in a row. They were concerned about him kind of falling apart at the end of last year. His numbers were dramatically different in the last four games of the season. If you conclude the postseason, he kind of fell off the face of the earth. So they're trying to pace him in practice and training camp. That also makes me think they're probably going to be pacing him during this season. We're not going to have him running an 80 plus, you know, 80% route share or better.

Maybe that comes down to 70% and some of those routes go to Pat Bryant. So if they're trying to pace him already in the early August, I have concerns about him for the entire season. Yeah, that's a great call, Tom. And this is a team obviously that, you know, we've been concerned with the receiver rotation for three years now. It's been Sean Peyton shenanigans every week where sometimes like it really has been just Sutton as like the clear only guy that you can kind of rely on. And then it's just a big rotation behind him.

Now that they have a legitimate depth behind Sutton between Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin, yeah, there's a real chance that they do kind of like scale back Sutton's workload. In which case, if that happens, if he's not upwards of like an 80% route year, he's going to be a complete bust at this ADP. I think such should be going closer to like 100 overall, specifically on ESPN and managed league formats. I just, I struggle to see the upside case. Joe, your point is really it's just he runs into a bunch of touchdowns.

That's the only case for it. You know, who also runs into a bunch of touchdowns is Tucker freaking Kraft. Kraft last season was Fantasies tied in four, tied in five. This injury discount over on ESPN is so good that honestly, my entire tight-in plan might just be, okay, if I don't feel really good about it, like a tight-in value, maybe I'm in a draft room where tight-ins are going a little cheaper and, you know, somebody falls to me. If that doesn't happen, I'm perfectly fine, just waiting until 103 overall to get Tucker Kraft. He's going to his tight-end 11.

Looks like he's going to be good to go to start the season. He's already running routes in Packers Camp, Joe. I know you're very high on craft this year. This is an awesome price, too. I know the draft injured guys has been kind of a trap, but this is a guy who got hurt. in like early November had surgery pretty much right away. He's, the timeline is typically like eight, nine months. He's going to be 10 months post-op when he gets to week one.

And by the way, if you count just his healthy games, in not including the game, I believe, against Carolina, in which he got hurt. Tucker Kraft was tied with Trey McBride for the tight end one and half PPR over his healthy game. So you are getting literal tight end one upside in 100 plus picks into a draft, I understand George Kittle probably also fits this kind of range of outcomes, but I do have to point out, George Kittal is coming off of historically a more serious injury suffered two months later than Tucker Kraft's was suffered.

I think Tucker Kraft is, I mean, as just at the tight end position, you said it, you can build your entire draft plan around him. I'm a Brock Bowers guy. I have started to really warm up also to Colston, Loveland, and Tyler Warren in like that fourth round, range, especially Warren, now that the Indianapolis receiving group is dropping like flies. But Tucker Kraft is just so easy to pair with a boring tight end. Heck, you can even pair them with, like, Colston Loveland if you want to and say, hey, I might have two hammer tight ends by the end of the season. So I am a huge Tucker Kraft fan.

Again, number one tight end in his healthy games last year, tied with Trey McBride and half PPR. You don't have to wish cast on that. We have seen that upside. And the fact that he is already practicing, they're already saying, oh, he's going to be ready for week one. That just makes me more optimistic on Tucker Kraft. Yeah, and we have a much thinned out receiving core in Green Bay. They trade, you know, traded away Don Tavian Wicks.

Romeo Dobbs has gone. There's been talk that maybe we'll get in and out of the huddle a little quicker this year. We're not going to have as many rotations at receiver. That's only going to help Tucker Craft run more routes. And that's the only thing that was kind of holding him. him back, 20th at the position, 24 routes per game. If we can get that to go up a little bit, he's certainly great after the catch. And hopefully that knee is completely healed and he's still dynamic after the catch. That's one minor concern here that maybe he isn't as dynamic after the

surgery. But these ACL surgeries, you know, it was a clean ACL. It wasn't a bunch of other ligament damage. So he should be ready to go and probably as good as ever. If we can get a few more routes and it sounds like Luke Musgrave is banged up already in training camp. So maybe it's going to have, you know, the league is kind of trending towards more two tight ends and three tight ends. But maybe the Packers are going to be one of these teams that plays a little bit more 11 personnel with Matthew Golden and Watson and Jaden Reed and Tucker Kraft out in the field. So this pick makes a whole lot of sense. We can get him after 100 picks in. Very easy to load up at all the other positions and start with Tucker Kraft at the tight end position. Sign me up for that.

Yeah, Packers are going to be a lot more condensed this season. And Jordan Love has made this note. I think a couple of weeks ago, I read a quote from him saying like, you know, basically working with more of like a streamlined receiver group is it really helped with like timing and communication. It should just be Watson Reed and Golden. And that helps Tucker Kraft. I think just just basically having, you know, essentially three players that he has to compete for targets with instead of five should help bump up his target share just a little bit. And yeah, Luke Musgraves got this neck injury. It does not seem very good.

It seems like he might miss this season. He's just been snake bitten by injuries his entire career, which, again, leads us down this path of Tucker Kraft probably just running like a full-time route share. Maybe not week one, but by week two and three while he's ramped up. Final tide, I don't want to talk about if you miss out on Tucker Craft, maybe you just pair these two guys together while Kraft is getting ramped up. Mark Andrews is going 122 overall. It's the cheapest redraft ADP we have for him.

I'm looking at this from two perspectives. The first one is Lamar Jackson is a freaking kingmaker. Leads all quarterbacks and touchdown rate since he entered the league by a significant margin. Obviously, Andrews has been a big recipient of a lot of that efficiency. And to that point, Andrews is second and expected touchdowns. the last two seasons behind only George Kittle, and he's been playing a full-time role. He doesn't have to deal with, you know, Isaiah Ehrlich and Charlie Kohler anymore. Tom, I just love Andrews this season, and this price is really, really nice. Like I was mentioning, if you're in, like, a 10-team

shallow league where you've got, you know, a few extra bench spots, you feel really good about your receivers and running backs, you could double tap tight-in this year. This is not something I typically do at all, but because there's such good value on ESPN specifically, I think it makes a ton of sense here to get Andrews that you're tied in two or even your tight in one here tied in 1380p. Yeah, the very good chance for him to be the number two receiver behind Zay Flowers. Rashad Bateman coming off a very disappointing season. Jacoby Lane's making some noise in camp. But right now, Andrews is easily the favorite to be the number two receiver.

And it does feel like he might be trending in the wrong direction, going to be entering his age 31 season. You know, so he might be getting a little bit long in the tooth, but I thought it was interesting last, at the end of last season. The Ravens made the decision. Maybe they put the same offer on the table to Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely, and Andrews took the deal and they extended him. So they still think he can play. And maybe this new offense, new with Declan Doyle calling the plays,

maybe there is that priority to get Mark Andrews back involved. So yeah, it makes a whole lot of sense. Doram Smyth is the number two tight end. You know, not even close to the threat that Isaiah likely was behind him the last couple of seasons. So if we can get a little bit of a spike in these touchdowns for Mark Andrews, that's kind of, you know, that's the one thing we really bank on with him. If he can get back to close to double digit touchdowns, this will go down as a, you know, smash pick here. So really good pick if you're waiting at the tight end position.

position and kind of double tap it at the end of the draft. Yeah, the thing with Andrews is I can look at the new offense as kind of both a positive and a negative because I was talking with Paul Kelly on the Sirius XM Morning Show and we were talking about Jacoby Lane and, you know, some of the hype that he's been getting. And we're like, well, God, the number two receiver in the Ravens' offense is a death trap. But it's a new offense. And is there something that is going to get that second receiver? on the field and producing a little bit more, does that take away from Mark Andrews?

Does the fact that they have two rookie tight ends take away from Mark Andrews? I think these are all the questions that are kind of driving his ADP down. But ultimately, I'm kind of with you guys at this price. I'll take a look and see if Lamar Jackson is just going to go back to his old reliable here. Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, we'll figure out the rest a little bit later on in the season. That's what I'm looking at is this is going to be a very condensed target chair between Flowers and Andrews. You know, the receiver, too, for the Ravens has been memed because this offense is so run heavy. It just doesn't really matter who their second receiver is because they just run the ball so freaking much.

And they're going to be very, very balanced, obviously, as long as Derek Henry stays healthy, this is going to be a team that's right around 50, 50 in terms of their pass-to-run ratio. I'm looking at it the same way this year, especially since they have an 11.5 win total. I know it's getting slammed towards the under, but 11.5 win total after everything this team went through last season is very, very, very strong. So to me, that spells a lot of Derek Henry kind of salt in games away late in the second half of games. Guys, this has been an awesome show, breaking down all the ESPN best and worst values. If you haven't already, Tom and I broke down all the sleeper values last week. We broke down some of our favorite sleeper values. Again, not all of our values, not of all of our targets, but some of the targets and values that stood out most to us. You haven't already

go back and listen to Tom and I from last week. If you have a sleeper, Draft this week. A lot of that information is still very, very relevant. I saw a question from chat from Jordan. He goes Leporta is his favorite target on ESPN at tight end. Yeah, well, we talk Sam Leporta on Sleeper. He's an even better value over on Sleeper going in like the mid-70s over there. Really, really nice. He's kind of like a six-round pick on ESPN right now. So go back, listen to that Sleeper Value article podcast. We've got one more show dialed up for you like Joe was in at the top of the show. Yahoo is a little sharper. We're going to break down the Yahoo best sleepers and values next week. So keep it locked here at fantasy points. For Tom, for Joe, I'm Graham. We'll see you

at the top of the little boots.