Fantasy Football Daily - Exploiting Sleeper ADP - Best and Worst Fantasy Football Values (2026)

Episode Date: August 4, 2026

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Yo, what is going on? Fantasy Football Daily is back. I am Graham Barfield. I am joined today by my guy Tom Brolly. He is our resident betting and fantasy expert. And we're going to be talking through Sleeper ADP. You guys have leagues drafting soon. We are here to help you exploit the default Sleeper ADP. This show is going to be all about finding the best targets and values on Sleeper. Maybe some players that were avoiding at ADP, a little bit of overvalued players on Sleeper. Tom, excited to get into this with you today. Yeah, this is something every platform is completely different. And it depends on where you're draft. A lot of people do sleeper, Yahoo, ESPN, we'll be going through all these over the next month or so. I'll put up an article up on the site where I compare, you know, our top 150 versus the different drafting platforms to maybe single you know single out some potential values and this is a great way to prep for a draft if you have a hometown draft and you check out this list watch this video maybe you can go in and cue a

couple players that might be end up being good values who maybe are pushed down a little bit further on sleeper ADP compared to some of the other sites so I think this is a good practice for any of the different drafting platforms and yeah let's let's dig into some of these guys Yeah, Tom, you do an excellent job going through, like you said, our rankings, putting together the best values based on default ADP. I intentionally left off a few players that I know we're going to be very high on at fantasy points. We want to leave a lot of meat on the bone for our subscribers. If you have not already subscribed to FantasyPoint.com, I don't really know what you're doing. Ryan Heath dropped his Magnum Opus the other day last week, anatomy of a league winner.

Just a ton of really good fantasy relevant takeaways. And then Scott Barrett just yesterday dropped his draft guy. all of his my guys must draft players. John Hansen's guru draft guide is out as well as Joe Dolan's auction draft guide. Tom, I've got my super flex draft guide coming out. Oh, baby, it is go time. So today we're going to be like going through some of the best values, but for sure, make sure you subscribe to the site.

Again, use code fantasy. I drop this all the time on the pod. Code fantasy. Use that at checkout. Save yourself 10% off any plan. Tom, I figured we'd get it started here. We'll get it started here. start with some quarterback talk sleeper there's a big long flat tier at on sleeper at quarterback basically

starting at like 80 overall but there's some there's some nice value in the kind of like that mid 6th to seventh round range depending on if you're drafting a 10 team league or a 12 team league one player that stood out to me is just like a massive value compared to the other sites at least is jalen hurts he's going 67 overall on sleeper it's like qb6 cuby seven in adp kb6 kb6 and 8pccc excuse me on ESPN he's going about nine picks earlier over on Yahoo he's going about a full round earlier i just look at this is like he's you know this is one of the best prices we've gotten for jalen hurts in quite some time over the last two seasons tom he's qb four and fantasy points per game obviously a lot of that is tush push related yep we do have some concerns here tom with uh with a j

brown gone it's going to be a new offense with sean mannion in town they're going to be throwing more over the middle with stowers and lemon involved. But to me, man, I think it really is just the rushing upside with Hertz. QB4 over the last two seasons and fantasy points per game. He's QB6 and 80P, so a pretty strong value here. Yeah, his rushing production, as you said, really dipped last year. And so to his fantasy production, 26.3 rushing yards per game. That was a career low, 6.6 attempts per game.

But maybe we can get back to running his. him a little bit more. You know, he's, he's been shown in camp. He looks a little bit lighter potentially. Maybe that bodes well. Looks spelt. Yeah, he does. I mean, I, I, I never know how to, you know, look at these guys. Because he, if you watch him on game days, he's got like four inches of armor around. You know, he's one of these guys that has the real big flack jacket. So, but he looks pretty skinny here with the, uh, the flack jacket off. And maybe that leads to a little bit more scrambling, a little bit more running. But I think we're most excited about this Eagles offense under Sean Mannion. It was a shell of itself last year under Kevin Petolo. Very bland,

no motion, just kind of static, him sitting in shotgun, and the offense was kind of static as well. It was not moving the ball like we had seen in years past, and especially, you know, under Kellyn Moore the year before. So Sean Mannion, coming from that, the floor background in Green Bay has been around the league. So hopefully we get some of those Shanahan and the, you know, McVeigh, a little bit of the play action, a little bit more motion, just things to make this a little bit easier for Jalen Hertz. But before last year, top six quarterback in each of his first four seasons as a starter,

never below 21.7 fantasy points per game. So I think there's reason to be optimistic about this offensive. bouncing back. Yeah, no AJ Brown. That does hurt, but they did bring in, you know, they drafted McCoy Lemon. They brought in Don Tavian Wicks. They brought in some players to hopefully fill in some of those holes in the passing game. So I'm pretty optimistic here and we can get them as the QB6. We have them projected right now as the QB4 over at fantasy points. So I think this is a good spot to maybe buy a little bit of a bounce back from Jalen Hertz. Yeah, and he goes in a pocket.

sleeper where receiver starts to fall off really, really badly. Running back is already completely dead around 65, 67 overall. You're kind of getting into that big long flat tier of the Panthers running backs, the Steelers running backs, the Broncos running back. So I like this pocket quite a bit. He goes 10 spots after Joe Burrow. And, you know, listen, I'm not a Joe Burrow hater by any means. I'm a huge fan of Burrow. I think he's one of the best quarterbacks in football. And he's obviously, you know, one of the most lethally accurate quarterbacks we've seen in the NFL. But this is an awesome price for Jalen Hurts. Getting Lane Johnson back is also a huge boost to this offense. Yeah, that offensive line was a major disappointment last year. We'll see, you know, Jeff Stoutland is gone. He's one of the

premier offensive line coaches, but it seemed like he was buttonheads a little bit with the, you know, Nick Siriani a little bit. So we'll see if this offense, I think it matters more that this group has some high-level players. There's continuity. continuity here. So even without one of the best offensive line coaches, I still think they can bounce back here and play much better, especially if there's better health. Land Dickerson was banged up as well. He thought about retirement. So getting all those guys back. And hopefully this offensive line performs a lot better in a system that probably should help out that offensive line. That's, you know, that really hurts the group whenever you're sitting back and shotgun

done and the defense knows exactly that you're dropping back so they can just pin back their ears. So just getting a little bit more under center will also help this offensive line. Yeah, Jalen Hertz over the last two seasons, Tom, is second, the slowest in time to throw. Only Shadur Sanders is slower in time to throw. And Shadur, obviously, just a vastly different sample size. It's basically Jalen Hertz, Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams. Those three guys are the ones that hold the ball. The longest, obviously they're looking for plays down the field.

But to your point, yeah, you're absolutely right. if they run a lot more play action, more timing and rhythm throws. It's going to certainly help to keep the offense on schedule. Bro, when, I mean, you look at the splits. Like when Lane Johnson's on the field, this is a top three offense by EPA per play. When he's off the field, though, it's like their league average 14-15. So, yeah, like Jalen Hurts quite a bit over on Sleeper as a value, saw comment in chat from NGP 2424.

He goes, Hertz versus Herbert versus Caleb is a close one. I lean hurts in that situation and especially over on Sleeper. I feel differently on ESPN and Yahoo. Tom and I are going to be doing a few more shows. We'll talk through ESPN and Yahoo ADPs, but that decision gets a lot easier over on those two sites, specifically on ESPN, both Herbert and Caleb Williams are very, very nice values over there. On Sleeper, though, Bo Nix is going roughly 25 spots,

almost two and a half rounds later than he is over on ESPN. He's going 17 spots later than he is. His average ADP is on Yahoo. And I'm just looking at this as like, yeah, okay, maybe he doesn't have like league winning upside time, but he does look like a strong value. The efficiency has not been crazy in terms from a passing perspective. But I do expect Jalen Waddle's addition to really help in that regard.

Obviously Waddle being so good on those like kind of horizontally breaking routes, crossing routes over the middle. And then Bo Nix has like some, you know, sneaky scrambling upside as well. Maybe he doesn't have the upside like Caleb Williams does every single week. Nick's coming back from an ankle injury as well. But this has been a big part of his game over the last two seasons. He's averaged over 20 yards rushing per game and back-to-back seasons. He has nine rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. So I'm looking at this as like, you know, QB-16, QB-15 for Nix, specifically on Sleeper, where he's going, you know, at one, what is it, 119 overall it's a pretty nice value tom where are you out on nix where you out on on his value for

fantasy this year yeah i i like him i it's just one of those where bestball drafts i just have not been getting him a whole lot i i'm one of the few guys on staff i guess that has not been selecting jalen waddle a whole ton and courtland sutton's just a you know he's he's probably accurately priced right now so at least in best ball where i'm always kind of looking to stack my quarterbacks with my receivers I haven't been taking a whole lot of Bo Nix. But, you know, I thought it was positive. He said at the beginning of camp here, talking to James Palmer, that he does, you know, he's going to continue to run.

He thinks that's an important part of his game, being on the move and moving outside of the pocket. And obviously that is a little bit of a concern coming into this year. Suffered that ankle injury at the end of that Bill's game and the divisional round. Had to have a cleanup surgery a couple months later. but he seems to be moving around all right at camp and he says he plans to keep running and that's been a nice floor lifter for him 3.8 for rushing your fantasy points per game as a rusher to start his career so that helps for some of the inefficiency as a as a passer so far in his

career. I also think looking at the play calling switch we'll see how long that actually sticks but Davis Webb you know they've talked about maybe playing with a little bit more pace and Sean Peyton said that he's, you know, not quick. And he's getting to be an old man. He's not quick at choosing a play and getting it into the huddle. So Bo Dix is always, he's one of these guys that wants to play with tempo. He played at Oregon, always playing fast, played at Auburn, which was a fast offense. So he wants those plays in quick. He wants to play with a little tempo. And that could be a nice little boost here for Bo Nix this upcoming season. So something to watch for there, that at least they've been talking about it. We'll see if Davis Well,

can actually keep the play calling for more than a few weeks. I'm sure Sean Payton, if they have a rough performance or two early in the season, he might start to get his fingerprints back on the offense. But a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Bo Nixon. I mean, if you hold off at the quarterback position, he's definitely a strong fallback plan. If you really hold out to the bitter end to take a quarterback. Yeah, QB9 and fantasy points per game over the last two seasons.

And so like I said, pretty decent technical value here at like QB 1680P and especially where he's going over on Sleeper 119 overall. He's going in a pocket time where he's going after Matt Stafford. He's going after Patrick Mahomes. And with Mahomes specifically, you know, he's coming off the ACL injury. And he's been saying all summer that, you know, he's probably going to run less. He's comfortable just handing the ball off to Ken Walker. I do think that's legitimately a concern for Mahomes because he's coming off a career high and rushing yards per game. Touchdowns on the ground.

it is a little bit of a concern and it is bullish like you noted that that Nick said, hey, I'm not going to change my stripes. I'm still going to be scrambling, still going to be running. So we still do have that like a little bit of like just a little bit of upside on the ground here with Nick's. Yeah, we saw Patrick Mahomes run. There were some

training camp videos that were coming out and he was trying to scramble and it did not look like he was moving all that fast. Not that that's unexpected. He's coming off an ACL injury. He's not and it's the first week of August here. So he's not exactly, you know, touch and top speed just yet.

But yeah, the Patrick Mahomes, I think Bo Nix might have a little bit higher, a little more potential this year, and he's going a couple picks later than him. Yeah, the passing efficiency has been roughly similar with Patrick Mahomes. This is kind of like an under-talked-about secret, but over the last three years, Mahomes has like four-and-a-half percent

touchdown rate has been right around seven yards per pass attempts. Nix is right around a four-and-a-half percent touchdown rate, slightly lower in the YPA category. But, yeah, I'm looking at Nix is a pretty decent, value. I got to tease this up, though. My guy Scott Barrett dropped his draft guide yesterday, dropped all of his Exodia plays. The strongest value by far is in Scott's article. Again, use code fantasy, save yourself 10% off, get into Scott's article and find out who the best value is. It's truly, this is an egregious value over on Sleeper for this particular quarterback.

And I know Scott is very, very high. There's actually one site that's even an even better value for this quarterback, but we'll save it for Scott's article. and you need to check that out. Tom, let's pivot over to running back. Most important position in fantasy. Sleeper ADP is pretty sharp in general on running backs, but I'm looking at Derek Henry as one of the best values in fantasy on Sleeper. I specifically pulled their PPR ADP, so I think we're getting a little bit of too big of a discount here on Derek Henry.

He's going at 25 overall RB13 going behind Jeremiah Love. Tom, if you can tell me right now, I can start my draft with Jemir Gibbs or Bijon Robinson come back and get Derek Henry. Derek Freak and Henry is my RB2. I'm doing jumping jacks. Like for real, I, I, like that's the super exciting start. You've got a really good base of fantasy points right there at your running back group. And like we've been saying all off season, this is one of the best years for mid-round receiver values. That just kind of completely allows you to open up your draft. Obviously, Henry just does not have the huge passing down upside. He does,

however, have the huge touchdown upside. As we've seen in the last two years, he scored 16 touchdowns and back-to-back seasons. This Ravens team is implied to win 11 and a half games. The markets are looking at them as one of the best bounceback offenses in football. Basically, they're top six, top five, and implied points per game any way you slice it. I just think this touchdown outlook, the way we're expecting the Ravens to kind of take a bounce back and maybe even a step forward this season with Declan Doyle taking over the play calling. You know, Henry could take a, Henry could like lose a step, Tom, and still fall into the end zone 12 times this season. Yeah, he really hasn't shown any signs of slowing down just yet.

He still has plenty left into the tank. He seems to be one of these guys that's a little bit of an outlier. You know, I'm going to continue to draft him until he really shows any signs of taking a step off a cliff. And maybe that starts to happen this year, but we really haven't seen that just yet. I guess we have some slight concerns about the offensive line, but they did draft Vig Ioni from Penn State should help the interior of that offensive line. But yeah, everything's kind of lined up.

They're the favorites to win the AFC North. As you said, they have an 11.5 win total, best in the AFC, which is kind of pivotal for him. He's one of these backs, like a lot of backs, but the splits are pretty dramatic in wins and losses. And even last year, he still got it done. They were, you know, right around 500 last year. Still put up very good production and still, you know, up over 300 yards, 300 carries again last year.

He's up to 2,600 carries for his career, but still going strong at, you know, heading into his 32-year-old season. So I'm pretty optimistic about this Ravens offense bouncing back. We love that, you know, that they have such a high win total because the schedule is pretty juicy as well from them not being able to win the EFC. last year. So they get a little bit easier schedule. So, you know, he's right in his same role that he's had the last couple of years under Todd Monkin. Justice Hill will obviously play in passing situations, take him off the field a little bit. But, you know, when they're down by the goal line, they are going to feed Derek Henry. So, you know, we have projected right at the top of the league again. He's among the leg league, you know, in the rushing touchdown market. He's among the

favorites for that particular honor as well. So touchdowns should be there. Maybe that's why that, you know, this is a PPR format. So he is getting maybe pushed down a little bit more than some of these other backs that are being selected ahead of him. But in terms of rushing, you know, potential, he's as, you know, he has as much as anybody in the league. To your point, Tom, Derek Kernery, over the last two seasons is the RB Freakin' Five in fantasy points for game and wins. Only Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Jamir Gibbs, and Bijan Robinson are averaging more PPR points per game than Henry and wins. Henry has 20.7. That's better than James Cook. It's better than Sequin Barclay. It's better than Devon A. Chan. People who are sleeping on Henry again,

and I think they're going to be wrong again. To your point, they have the fifth easiest strength of schedule. There should be plenty of good game scripts for Henry. And like I mentioned, man, I think the biggest thing is like he's averaged 5.6 yards per carry. That could decline down to like 4.5 or 4.6 and he could still score a boatload of touchdowns as the team's goal line back. He's one of the few backs we know very confidently, like we feel very confidently that he's going to be the eight, you know, get in that 80 to 90% of the carries inside the five. That's not really been Lamar Jackson's game throughout his career. He's never really been like a goal line runner in his career.

I think Henry is set up incredibly well here at 25 overall on Sleeper. His ADP across all other sites is a lot more normal, kind of more in that middle of the second round. I think that's that's the fair price for him, but the sleeper value is just way, way too good. I had to point this out. Another value that I'm looking at, it is way too good. He's a pretty nice price pretty much everywhere, but this is the cheapest you can draft him right now. It's Jadarian price. He's going 80 overall, RB29. This is a player. I am extremely high on this a player that I've been talking about since like maybe June that I think is a very strong value. Let me set this up by saying, Zach Charbonnet's health is probably the biggest thing I'm looking at in

training camp. We probably won't fully know until a couple of weeks what his exact timeline is like. But Judarian Price is looking like a rare rookie running back with a front weighted projection, Tom. We usually talk about rookies as backweighted players where it's like you've got to wait until October to really expect to return. This is a different situation. I think price is going to be leaned on very, very heavily early in the year. And this is an insanely valuable backfield. Just last season, this backfield led the entire league and expected fantasy points. We have a metric here at fantasy points data. It looks at the value of every play on the field, the down and distance,

and it puts a value on the expected fantasy points of that play. So Seattle had the most valuable backfield last year. They were splitting it two ways, obviously, between Charbonnet and Walker. And we just really never knew, right? Like we never knew who to play. They were just kind of like low-in flex plays every single week. Charbonnet obviously always had the touchdown upside. even with some, you know, regression baked in this offense, Tom, like the Seahawks are going to regress a little bit year over year.

That being said, this is still a very valuable backfield. And if Price gets started hot in September, he could run away with this backfield. He's the RB 29 in Price. I'm looking at it as like, I don't really think there should be this big of a gap between him and, like, say, Quintan Judkins. I think they have very similar roles if both players are there, you know, starting backs all year. Yeah, he's going about a round or two, too late. right now over at Sleeper and he's got a great opportunity as he said. Zach Sharbon, there's like some optimism out there that he could return earlyish,

but it just does not like add up to me. Like if you think back earlier this summer Tucker Kraft was talking about the Packers organization, they're a little bit more conservative, but you know, they have a strict nine month to return from an ACL injury. if you know most you know a lot of teams follow that kind of a role that's that's going to put uh Zach Charbonnet back on the field maybe in mid-November maybe late November this was a guy that got hurt in middle of January uh had to wait close to a month to get surgery it was it was into February whenever he got surgery so uh if you look at it just from like a strict

nine month separation from the surgery it's November for Zach Charbonnet and that doesn't even take into account like the ramp up period. He's just not going to come back and get all the carries and especially in the middle of the season like that. So it could take a couple of weeks for him to to even get ramped up. So I'd like this opportunity for Price. He's going to, you know, they, you know, kind of reached for him a little bit in the end of the first round, but they still did it. You know, they, they know they had a major weakness at the running back position. George Halani, kind of a journeyman type of player, you know, the passing back, Emmanuel Wilson, the Packers and all their running back issues right now,

they let him walk as a restricted free agent. So the competition just is not very stiff right now for Judarian Price. He shows any kind of a pulse here, especially, if he breaks off a run or two in the preseason, this ADP of the 80 overall, it's probably not going to last very long, but I'm kind of hoping he just has like a, you know, nice steady, you know, preseason. You know, nothing spectacular, you know, averages four yards of carry. Just keep this ADP in check because this is a great opportunity to get a rare rookie who could produce right away.

And then maybe if he performs well, you know, that keeps Charbonnet in more of a secondary role. So a lot of upside here, especially early in the season with Judarian Price and maybe he can take this job and run with it. Yeah, you're right. That first, that first Judarian price long run in preseason is going to send his ADP flying upward, man. He should be going, at least in the mid-60s. This price over on Sleeper is really nice. It's definitely discounting his upside this season. There was a tweet that went viral. And I never really found the source material from Albert Breer, basically saying that there's a chance Charbonnet could play week one. I talked to Jeff Mueller about this last week. After you're done, listen to Tom and I go back and listen to Jeff and I talk, if you haven't already, where he was basically saying, like, there could be a chance that he needed like basically the ACL trimmed, you know, just not fully reconstructed, which would kind of give him a chance to come back around that eight-month mark. But we don't know that for sure. We have no, you know, we have no inside information on Charbonnet. We don't know exactly, you know, what he was dealing with in terms of his rehab.

So I'm still with you, Tom. I think the base case with Charbonnet is probably late October right around Halloween, in which case, yeah, Judarian Price. He's got a, you know, solid month and a half runway here to kind of take this job. and run with it. One other running back that seems completely mispriced. We'll go the opposite way with this one. This is a player that I'm avoiding over on sleeper.

Bucky Irving is going at 34 overall in the middle of the third round, RB17. Yeah, I had the same reaction when I pulled this data the other day. Yeah, it's a bad price. I think off the top, Tom, the biggest thing with Bucky this year is like, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. He was one of the best runners and one of the most efficient runners in his rookie season. in terms of yards after contact, the mistackless force were all very good. Then last year took a huge step back.

It was one of the worst runners in football because he was dealing with the shoulder injury. The truth is somewhere in the middle with him. He's definitely not the best runner in the NFL. He's also probably not the worst. The big problem that I have is just, you know, Kenny Gainwell really, really harpoons the upside here for his passing downs. Gainwell is going to regress. He's not going to be able to, you know, sustain the insane receiving counting stats he had last season, Tom. but, man, Bucky Irving, middle of the third round, I can't get to it.

I won't do it. I won't do it either. Yeah, Kyron Williams is looking pretty overvalued to me as well. But you look at this just straight up, like Bucky Irving's going ahead of Javante Williams. I think I prefer Javante Williams. And then he's going in this bucket, Tom, where like the receiver, the receiver pool is just so good. Like DeVontas Smith, Chris Oliva, a lot of players that were pretty high on here at fantasy points. I just can't do it at 34 overall for Bucky.

Yeah, this is just too much of an overpay right now. Maybe in the late fourth round, I would maybe consider him there. But this is just too high for me. Yeah, as you said, Kenneth Gainwell's going to be in the mix here. They gave him a lot of, you know, that was one of the first signings too of a free agency. They did that right off the bat. 9.8 million guaranteed. I could have easily kept Rashad White around,

but they were looking for a little bit of an upgrade over Rashad White. They thought they got it with Kenneth Gainwell. So that tells me that he is going to have a big role in this backfield, at least in like passing situations. Maybe he even takes a little bit more off of Bucky Irving's plate. We still have Sean Tucker in the mix here, maybe taking some short yardage situations, some goal line situations away from Bucky Irving.

So what it leaves us with is kind of a back that's probably going to be playing a lot between the 20s and maybe not getting those high. value touches in the passing game and those high value touches at the goal line, which I don't really want any back that's, you know, just doing the in between the 20s kind of work. So he could bounce back and look a lot better and he still might not, you know, make it for fantasy. And I think we still have concerns about this offense too. Liam Cohen left and he looked great in Liam Cohen's offense, but obviously suffered an injury

early last year but never regained his form that you know they moved on from josh grisard brought in Zach Robinson so maybe we get a little bit of a bounce back overall from this offense but overall this buccaneers team seems to be trending a little bit in the wrong direction as well offensive line maybe the offensive line will be a little bit healthier that was a major issue for this team last year but yeah this just nothing kind of adds up here that this guy should be being selected in the mid-30s, in the third round at this point. Maybe I'd start considering him like end of the fourth round, into the fifth round, just way too much of an overpay right now. If you're drafted on Sleeper this week or in the next couple of days, it does seem like the mid,

like this kind of mid-tier of running backs after Josh Jacobs and Derek Henry, like the top 15 running backs are off the board, Bruce Hall, I would include him in that group. It does seem like they're kind of, sleepers kind of pushing these guys up a little bit. Travis Sinti Ann is another guy who's going a little earlier on sleeper than he is on ESPN and Yahoo. But Bucky, man, he really stands out. ESPN's ADP is 55. Yahoo is 51. That is like the only price range I'd be interested in Bucky this year.

It's right around that kind of quenchon Junkins type tier where, yeah, it's a two-down banger on a potentially kind of like not great offense. And he doesn't really have a whole lot of upside in the pass downs. That's like the only pocket of runners. I'm entertaining Bucky this year. Yeah, if I, you know, looking at this ADP, I, yeah, I wouldn't even, you know, draft him in that spot. I would load up on wide receivers. Yeah, same. Look at Deterian price a little bit later in the draft.

I think that's the much better value. Significantly better value. We're going to switch over to receivers here. Receiver value is very, very strong up and down the board. I've been saying it all offseason. This is an incredible year for receivers in this kind of mid, you know, it really starts in the third round, but fourth, fifth and sixth round looks incredible. We're going to talk through some of these players.

right now. Like I was saying earlier in the show, we're not giving away all the goods. We don't want to give all the goods away. I did save a few players for Tom's article that we've been teasing up. But Devontas Smith, you, Joe and I talked about this. I think on one of our mock draft shows a few weeks ago. It is a disrespectful price on Sleeper. I had to bring it up here again just for the show real quick. I forgot how bad it was. Oh, my goodness. 45 overall, Tom, wide receiver 20, just completely disrespectful. And this is like an old price for him. This is where we be drafting him if AJ Brown were still on the team. We're looking at him as like a clear cut top 15 or top 16 fantasy wide receiver. Okay, maybe he's not like a full blown alpha like AJ Brown has been

in the last couple of years. But DeVontes Smith still been up above a 30% first three target share, even competing for targets with Brown over the last two seasons, Tom. I mean, this is just, I want every bit of Devontas Smith at 45 overall if we can get him here at this price. Yeah, this is a complete smash. And, yeah, AJ Brown's out. of the mix and how we get a new offense we're all kind of optimistic about what sean mannion's going to do here a little bit of you know maybe some jackson smith and jigba vibes here uh like when they traded away dk metcalf this is a team that we kind of think it's going to maybe rely on the defense a little bit rely on the running game but we get that one alpha in the passing game and

da vanta smith maybe we can get that kind of kind of season from him and i think he's going to take a big step forward and it's not like he hasn't done this before i mean he he was like the number one in in his rookie season put together put together a good year back at alabama he won the heisman trophy award uh was playing with jalen waddle and john mechie and he was the clear number one in that group very very talented receiving court at alabama so he has done this before he just just doesn't look like your prototypical number one wide receiver he's so skinny and uh he looks so fragile but he is, you know, he's bold. He'll go up and, you know, make contested catches.

He'll make plays over the middle of the field. So, yeah, I'm feeling pretty darn optimistic about him. Mackay Lemon seems like they're bringing him along a little bit slow. He was the first round draft pick. Dantavian Wicks is also in the mix. So the target competition is kind of lacking here early in the season. So I think there's a clear path for him to be like top 10, you know, in target share, top 10 in first read share.

And if we get any kind of a bounce back from Jalen Hertz, I'm liking this Devonsa Smith pick. So yeah, if I'm doing a draft over on Sleeper, this is definitely one of those players. I'm queuing up early before I start a draft. I'm kind of targeting him in that maybe late third round, early fourth round, you know, because he should be going.

His price right now should be probably more in that beginning of the third round into the middle of the third round. So if you can nab him in the late third round, early fourth round, you're starting off with a heck of a value right in your draft. Yeah, that's where he should be going, Tom. And that's where he's going on Yahoo, specifically. And this is why, you know, this type of discussion is very important. There's just a whole lot of nuance and fantasy values in general.

But yeah, he's going 30 overall on Yahoo. He's going like 39 overall on ESPN. It's just a really nice price for Devont. If you got a draft this week, I'm with Tom. I would draft him in the third round. I'd cue him up as early as early as the third round. And just the volume this season should be very, very strong. We've got Smith projected inside of our top 15 in targets.

These are median projections that Chris puts out. So it's really not even factoring in the upside of like, hey, maybe the Eagles shift and go a little more pass heavy this season. This is just such a strong value. I had to make it number one. I will say if we didn't get Devontas Smith at 45 overall, this next player, Terry McLaurin at 56 overall, Tom. It is, his price across the industry in seasonal leagues is very, very nice.

Middle of the fifth round here over on Sleeper. He's actually even a better value over on ESPN. I maybe should have kept, kept Terry McLaren for the ESPN show that we'll do. But I'm just looking at this as like, this is a clear bounceback candidate. Jane Daniels coming back fully healthy. Obviously, he had a number of injuries last year. And so did Terry McLaurin. McClorn had this quad issue that he just like never fully got right.

McClorn is getting over the age apex. I think he has one more clear like apex year in his, in his coffer. But man, McLaren two years ago in the rookie season with Jane Daniels, McLaren was wide receiver 16 by fantasy points per game. Catchable target rate of 83%. That fell nine points last year to 74. And I think that really was just injury related for both players. Tom, he's been between like 115, 130 targets his entire career.

we could kind of see a career year for him this year, maybe where he does push that absolute ceiling of 140 at the high end, Washington is going to stink. Like this defense is going to be really bad. You know, Dan Quinn's in the third year of his kind of build here, but they have not hit on a lot of draft picks. Commanders are going to give up points this season. McLaren in the middle of the fifth round,

I think over on Sleeper, the draft plan is pretty clear. Like RB, RB start. Yeah. Get Devon to Smith in the fourth round. get Terry McLaren in the fifth round. You're going to be feeling very, very good about your receivers this season. Yeah, this is a great story. If you're drafting at the end of the first round,

grabbing those running backs early, then get DeVant to Smith coming back around. And maybe you can grab Terry McLaren a little bit later as well. And yeah, this situation looks phenomenal for him. I was kind of all out on him last year. We had the hold in, wasn't practicing a whole lot, his ADP was really inflated. And of course, we have,

These guys that hold in sometimes injuries, these soft tissue injuries can crop up early in the season. Of course, that is what happened to Terry McLaurin relatively early in the season. So he didn't even get that many opportunities to play with Jaden Daniels last year. Daniels kind of left the lineup right as he was getting healthy again. And so they didn't really see a whole lot of each other. It was a lot with Marcus Marriota. So, you know, I'm feeling pretty optimistic that, you know, both of these guys are healthy now. We'll see if they add any comments.

competition. They're still one of these teams that's kind of lingering for Stefan Diggs, who's still a free agent. Debo Samuel is at least off the market. DeAndre Hopkins, it looks like he's off the market since he took a job with Georgia Tech. So still waiting on this Stefan Diggs, you know, just to see where he ends up. But I think Terry McLaren going to be the clear number one here. No Debo Samuel this year. No Zach Ertz. Zach Ertz. Zach Kurtz, you know, quietly, anybody that was paying attention. He was, you know, taking a lot of targets away in this offense. So David Blow, you know, right at the, you know, right when they hired him earlier this offseason, one of the first things he says, and he was an assistant on the

team. So he, you know, he knows, you know, Jaden Daniels, he knows Terry McLaren. He says, we want to get him 10 targets per game. So that makes me, you know, pretty optimistic. Maybe we see some different kind of targets for him as well. He's, you know, kind of been more of. a downfield type of a threat. But maybe David Blow, if he wants to get to that 10 targets number, maybe he's envisioning some, you know, more design targets or some quick hitting targets. So, you know, maybe that helps his bottom line a little bit. Pads that reception number.

We know we can get the big plays from Terry McLaurin. So, yeah, I'm feeling pretty good about where he's going right now in drafts. I was completely out on him last year. I'm completely in and on him, especially at this fifth round price. Yeah, Tom, you make a great point. I mean, you know, Cliff Kingsbury, you know, maybe got a little too much hate. That's the other thing. He got a little too much hate there.

I think he ran a pretty good offense last year, given all of the, you know, you know, just Jane Daniels wasn't fully healthy. McLaren wasn't fully healthy. The offense was really struggling. But one of the things he clearly did not do well is he was just sticking McLaren there on that left side. Basically not moving him around the formation. That's going to change this season for sure. Getting McLaren off of press coverage, getting him in motion more is certainly going to help

for sure just kind of get him some free releases. So I'm looking at Terry McLorne is one of the best values on the board. Devontas Smith probably slightly better value. This next player, though, this is just full on. I want to add something. You brought up about him playing on the left side, digging around in our fantasy points data. He was the receiver who stayed on one side the most last year. 82% of his routes, 82.

We're on that left side of the formation. So maybe we can get him, you know, in motion a little bit more in the slot on that right side, just getting more creative ways to get Terry McLaren involved. Trey's ears just perked up, get a little motion from McCorn. Get the motion man going. Yeah, listen, that is a crazy stat.

And I like truly in the modern NFL, that just cannot happen. Like you just can't, you can't have one player on one side of the field that often. Even if they are just like more comfortable on that side of the field, yeah, that is just absolutely wild. What is also wild, Tom, is the Josh, price on sleeper. It is just, it's crazy to me. You know, Devontas Smith, Terry McLaren, these guys project significantly better. But Josh Downs is going at 125 overall wide receiver 48. Full PPR, by the way. And again, I think this is one of the situations where the market is just

not projecting this out correctly. There is a chance they signed Keenan Allen. There's a chance maybe they should sign Keenan Allen or Stefan Diggs. This team has just absolutely no depth. There's some regression for sure built into this offense. But all, all summer, all we've heard is that Josh Downs is going to play in 12 personnel. Shane Steichen has basically been saying as much that we're going to try to, you know, get Downs way more involved in 12 personnel. And this is the one thing that's held his fantasy value back for a number of years is not playing in two tight-in sets.

Over his career, Tom, he's only played 6% of possible routes with two or more tight-ins on the field. Yeah, it's crazy. I mean, even as like just a slot-only player, I still think that's a little wild. but he has 68, 72 receptions to start his career, obviously kind of took a step back last season with Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce being the lead targets at receiver and Tyler Warren leading the team in targets. But down's just 25. He's going to have to play a whole lot more. Alec Pierce has not been able to do anything this offseason because of his ankle injury. Wide receiver 48 is just crazy, man. I think he should be going like wide receiver 35 at worst.

And he's going in the 120s all across the industry. Sleeper ADP in particular. Yeah. He's just way too cheap. He should be a guy that sees his route share really tick up this season. And he's been phenomenal when he's been on the field, 25% target share on his routes run. So, you know, career best was around 68% route share. So maybe we can get that up to like 75, 80%.

And for a player like downs, you know, that's just going to, you know, raise the floor for them, give them more possibilities for, you know, more. ceiling outcomes as well. So one of these receivers, and we look at, you know, Daniel Jones coming back from an Achilles injury, is he going to be uncorking it down the field so much, probably not as much as he was. So I think that does help out a Josh Downs, who works all the areas of the field, but in the slot, he can work the underneath and the intermediate areas a little more than a guy like Alec Pierce, who's been kind of the downfield threat throughout his career. So I think that, you know, the Daniel Jones injury.

Maybe that helps out Josh Downs a little bit. We'll see if Alec Pierce is the same guy here. They obviously paid him a lot of money to stick around and be their number one wide receiver. But this is an awfully long layoff. Maybe there could be some rust. And maybe he's never been a guy that's traditionally like, okay, we're going to send 10 targets Alec Pierce's way. He's been always more of this guy that's, you know, that gets four to six targets per game.

Michael Pittman's out of the way. Maybe Josh Downs becomes the target leader in this offense. So yeah, this ADP is kind of criminal right now. Don't love necessarily everything that's going on in Indianapolis, one of these teams that's kind of giving off some shaky vibes. But that might end up working out for a guy like Josh Downs if they're not able to rely on their running game as much and if they're playing from behind a little bit more in the second half of games.

So I think everything is adding up to Josh Downs being a really, really strong value and 125 overall. I mean, I don't know where that is, but that's probably about a wide receiver four into the wide receiver five range. I think at the very least, like, you know, a bad season for him might just be like a, you know, a PPR wide receiver three type season.

But I do think he has some ceiling potential this year. Yeah, the ceiling potential is very clear to me. To your point, Alec Pierce, never really been like a full-blown alpha target level earner. And I respect Brett Whitefield's opinion on receivers, more than anybody, and he's been saying all off season that Pierce has that potential. So I want to, like, you know, leave that light on for sure for Pierce. But last two seasons, when Downs has been on the field, all he does is earn targets.

He's wide receiver 13 by targets per route run. So yeah, okay, maybe sure. There's not a whole lot of like yardage and touchdown upside. But in PPR, man, he could catch on the high end 75, 80 balls this season. I like Josh Downs quite a bit. I would make him a key part of your draft plan. If you're in PPR leagues, half PPR, this price is just. really, really nice. We straight up have Josh Downs out projecting Michael Wilson, who is one of the

most overvalued players over on Sleeper this season. Michael Wilson going 80 overall wide receiver 37 on Sleeper. He's a player, Tom, that I'm looking at to avoid in this pocket. He's going one pick ahead of Judarian Price, which is absolutely crazy to me. Michael Wilson, you look at the games where he started with Marvin Harrison last year. He had just a 12% target chair, average just six expected fantasy points per game. When Harrison was out of the lineup, Michael Wilson shot all the way up to like a 25% target chair.

The XFP was right around 16 or 17 points per game. Again, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle here. I think Michael, it's not like Wilson's going to not be involved in this offense, but he is a player that, in my opinion, is overvalued. And again, Tom, down straight up, out projections him, and you can get him 45 picks later over on Sleeper. It's crazy. It's a great value.

Yeah, sign me up for that. I am not, I haven't been very high on, you know, frankly, all these Cardinals players. I am a little bit worried about the, you know, the three and a half win total. The quarterback situation, you know, gives me the willies if something happens to Jacoby Brissette or he just regresses to his, you know,

form before last year. So, yeah, They're not going to throw the ball 40 times a game like they were in the second half of last year. I think Marvin Harrison is probably going to have better health. And Trey McBride is still clearly, you know, the number one receiver in this offense. So, yeah, there's a lot of reasons why I'd want to fade Michael Wilson at this current ADP. And we also have the fact that later in the season, if they are out of contention, they're going to want to get a look at Carson Beck.

And they have a really late buy. It's in week 14. So that already stinks if you're in the first week of your fantasy playoffs. Or maybe that's, you know, an early playoff week free. If you need to win to get into your postseason, they're going to be on by in week 14. Then we could have a couple of games with Carson Beck at quarterback in weeks 15, 16, and 17. Could be a bad recipe.

So maybe even if Michael Wilson does his part, even, you know, lives up to his ADP, he might be one of these guys that we can't even really count on in the fantasy playoffs if Carson Beck is at quarterback. So there's just a lot of reasons kind of lining up to, you know, kind of avoid him at this ADP. Yeah, the downside risk with Wilson is very real. Like you said, the quarterback situation is a concern. And like Jacoby Brissette, man, like he's been a career backup for a reason, you know? You know, his efficiency numbers underneath the hood don't look particularly great.

Even last year, I mean, he was under seven yards per pass attempt, just barely. It was really just volume for him. 485 pass attempts. Tom and 12 starts just that's absolutely ridiculous. That's certain to regress. Wilson to me is a complete, complete avoid. And this next player,

we'll switch over to tight end, Tom. He's going four picks behind Sam Laporta. I mean, Sam Laporta has been like just locked and loaded top 10, top eight, you know, in fantasy points per game when he's healthy, fully healthy going into this off season. I mentioned earlier in the show.

I spoke to Jeff Mueller last week, and he made me a lot more confident. in Laporte of this year coming back from a back injury and two years ago was an ankle injury. Again, this is one of those situations where I think there's just a lot of nuance to player value and the way we evaluate players in fantasy football markets. There can be a huge spread of ADP based on where you're drafting. And Laporte is one of these players. His ADP over on Sleeper is nine spots lower than it is on ESPN.

It's a full round lower than Yahoo. So 76 overall, he should be going in kind of like that mid, you know, mid mid six round, late six-round pocket, Tom. Tight-in 8 ADP for Sam Leporta is just, it's a great value. I think the only concern I really have is, like, James and Williams was not super involved in this passing offense when Leporta was healthy last year. You know, Dan Campbell took over play calling and completely changed that.

I do think that's going to stick. There's no way that JMO is going to be not involved in the offense to the point where he was last year. But it still doesn't matter. We're still projecting Loporta as the clear tied-in five by points per game. Obviously, Bowers, McBride, Warren, and Loveland are the top four. Laporta, man, I mean, I think this sticks out like a sore thumb. This is just such a good price on Sleeper.

Yeah, we get Drew Petsing coming over from Arizona. Trey McBride developed into the best tight end in football whenever under Petsing. And, you know, he clearly, you know, got a lot of targets from his offense the last couple of years. So I think that's a positive. McBride was at 75% route share or better in 20. his last 29 games under Drew Petsing. I think that's a Ryan Heathstat. I'm checking out my article, but I have that in my article as well. And so we would expect Sam Laporta to be out in the field a lot. And we're all looking at this lion's offense. I mean, it's going to put up some numbers.

That defense is not going to stop very many, very many teams, especially in that secondary. Easy schedule, too, easiest schedule in the NFL. So I can already tell you right now, kind of wait on more of these books to put out highest scoring team odds. I think the lion should be at the top or near the top. I'm hoping maybe I can at least maybe squeeze out like a 10 to 1 or something and might be giving that out to our subscribers, but need those markets to open up. But I think a big beneficiary of that would be LaPorta. And we do have David Montgomery.

He's out of the mix here a little bit. I don't think all the touchdowns are going to go to Jemir Gibbs. So maybe some of these touchdowns start trickling back over to Sam. Leporta who had that amazing start to his career, you know, 10 touchdowns as a rookie, but the number has fallen off touchdown-wise the last couple of years. So maybe we're due for a little regression in the other direction. And maybe we get a few more scores for Sam Leporta this season. So, yeah, this is pretty easy for me if you really load up at all the other positions.

And, you know, you're sitting looking at tight end in that seventh round or so. I think he's a great pick. Tight end eight, you said? That's pretty solid. Yeah, tight-in-eight is just an awesome price for him. Top five, you know, he was a top-five pick at the position the last two years after his rookie season. Yeah, this is, it's a really nice price over on Sleeper.

And I'm with you. I do think the Lions are the best fantasy offense this season. Rams bound for some regression. And the Rams just have a significantly better defense. I mean, if they get freaking Aaron Donald back, man, this is a team that's not going to give up a whole lot of points. The Lions are on the complete opposite end of that spectrum. They're secondary is in shambles, right?

now. So I'm with you. I'm with you on the port. I think he makes a ton of sense. I also kind of think Jared Goff might be really sneaky in terms of like just pocket passing value. Not somebody you're going to go out of your way to kind of target in your drafts, but got his guy is kind of, six point. Six point touchdown leagues. He's a good guy you look at. Yeah, six point per passing touchdown leagues in this, in particular super flex leagues. I'm looking at him as a very, very strong value. This next player I'm not even really completely out on. I just think this ADP is absolutely wild. We have to avoid Iran. Day Gadsden at tied in nine sleeper ADP time.

Tied in nine, he's going 95 overall. The concern is twofold. Like they brought in David and Joku, they brought in Charlie Kohler. There's a chance that Arronday Gadsden's role comes down in this offense. And then, you know, we kind of truly don't know where McDaniel's going to divvy up the targets. We're projecting it to be McConkey and Quentin Johnson. It certainly could be pretty flat in terms of the target shares, which would help Gadsden. but 95 overall is pretty wild for Gadsden.

We haven't projected closer like Titan 18, 19 in points per game. Again, I'm not completely out on the player because I want to buy chargers. I want to buy Gadsden is maybe kind of like the Darren Waller corollary in this offense. Waller had some nice weeks with Mike McDaniel as a play caller for the Dolphins. But man, there's a lot of target competition here. Titan 9 is just crazy to me. Tom, he's going ahead of Mark Andrews, Dallas Goddard. Oh man.

Even like somebody like Dalton Kincaid, who I'm not in on this year, like he should be close priser to those guys. Yeah, this is pretty outrageous and feels like we're, you know, this was an ADP that was set like in the middle of last season, whenever he was starting to have his full-blown breakout. I wonder if there's some dynasty takes just kind of leaking into some of the sleeper markets. Yeah, that could be a part of it.

Yeah, because even his end of the season wasn't spectacular. It was, you know, an awesome middle of the season. But as you said, in multiple tight ends who all can play David and Joku, a long track record of being a, you know, fantasy relevant tight end until until these knee injuries kind of cropped up and kind of knocked him out the last year or two. Charlie Kohler, up and coming tight end, you know, gave a lot of money to him. Certainly signaled that he is going to be the starting tight end. Alec Ingold, even the fullback they brought in, he's going to get snaps. He's going to take

one of these tight ends off the field. So, yeah, I just, I just, don't, you know, I want to get pieces of this Chargers offense, but it's 94 overall does not seem like it's worth it for Rhonda Gadsden. If he was like 134, maybe I'd take a chance on him there and just shoot for the upside and you can easily dump him after a couple of weeks of the season. But 94, you're kind of drafting your starting tight end at that point. I'd feel much comfortable with some of those games, some of those names that you said after him. Like, you know, you're you know, Dalton Kincaid and George Kiddell, who, you know, seems to be coming back. Should be back and ready for week two.

Yeah, Tallas Goddert, super value at the tight end position. So honestly, in this range, 94 overall, you know, I don't love a lot of these guys. I would just kind of wait at the tight end position, wait two or three rounds. There are plenty of options. Isaiah likely is going 117. So no reason to use a draft pick on a tight end after Sam Leporter goes. off the board. Yeah, there's a, there's a widespread on Gadsden's ADP. He's going 125 on Yahoo, like 160, 165, I believe, actually 170 on ESPN. He's basically almost going on drafted on ESPN.

Again, I think, I think Sleeper might, there might be some dynasty takes, kind of leaking into the sleeper market. Obviously, Sleeper is the preeminent dynasty league platform. That being said, though, this Gadsden price is crazy to me. One more tight-in, I think this priced absolutely. Wild over on sleeper. Hunter Henry is going 106 overall, tight in 13, I believe in ADP. Again, going ahead of God or going ahead of Mark Andrews, going ahead of Travis Kelsey. I'm not even really super into Travis Kelsey this year. I think the upside is pretty limited with Hussree Rice back healthy and the chiefs, you know, limiting, probably lowering their pass rate this season, trying to limit a little bit of Patrick

Mahomes exposure. I can't do it. I think Hunter Henry should be basically undrafted in fantasy this year. Adrian Brown are going to dominate targets. They bring in Romeo Dobbs. We saw Henry last year with significantly, you know, worst target competition. He was basically just like a best ball.

Only asset is like just a touchdown or bust option. Henry, in my opinion, should not be drafted in a single tight end leaks on. No, yeah, this is a pretty ridiculous price. And even they drafted Eli Rairden, who's kind of pushing for snaps here. It seems like he's doing really well in camp. He's already getting some two, you know, too tight end snap so maybe he could start to push hunter henry for for snaps so um a lot of target

competition as he said we're we're uh j brown's coming in he's not going to come in and you know get a 15 percent target share he's going to come in and he's going to want a 25 percent to 30 percent target share um Romeo dobs is the same way a lot of depth kaysan booty's been lighting up training camp so of course there's going to be some weeks where hunter henry has some strong performances but i do think uh that target share is going to shrink a little bit here and we're going to have a lot more kind of duds in the mix here he's going to be probably a very frustrating for fantasy so there's going to be some weeks where he does get good matchups and maybe it is conducive for tight ends but on the whole he's you know probably a guy that you probably just want to leave on

the waiver wire pick him up in certain weeks when there are good matchups um when you're drafting him 106, you're kind of banking on him to be a starter. And I just don't view him as a starter this year. No, he is only like in Titan premium FFPC formats. That's like the only, only format Henry is really valuable in fantasy this year. Sleeper ADP, like I mentioned at the top of the show, is generally pretty sharp. But this season in particular looks. It's a little off, man.

It's usually sharper than ESPN and Yahoo. This year, it definitely does not feel that way. And in particular, at Titan, there's some. really nice tight-in values. If you're drafting over on Sleeper this week, and make sure you use all of our cheat sheets and projections here at Fantasy Points. We have constantly updated the projections.

Like we've been missioning throughout the show, Tom comes out with his best values by site article that'll be out in middle of August to help you kind of draft and really help sort out even more of these values. I really just kind of pulled out some of the names that really stuck out to me. We'll leave a lot of the goods

for behind the paywall for our Fantasy Point subscribers. Again, if you have not, subscribed already, use code fantasy, save yourself 10% off any plan. And if you're listening to us on YouTube, you can hit the QR code right in that bottom, right hand corner below Tom, scan the QR code, take it right to the plans page and use that promo code to save some bucks. Tom, this has been awesome so far, walking through Sleeper ADP going through. We'll do it later this month.

We'll hit some of the other platforms. Yeah, let's do that. We'll run it back on another Tuesday here, ESPN and Yahoo. who we'll talk through one of those two platforms, probably next week. This has been awesome exercise. I think in general, like I said, there's going to be a big spread of ADP based on where you're drafting. And in particular on sleeper, I think that's it, Tom.

I think I've identified it. It's got to be the dynasty market kind of, got to seeping in a little bit too much on sleeper. Yeah, I'm wondering some of the rookie drafts. Maybe we'll see some of this ADP straightened out as the summer goes along. But it is looking pretty appealing over it. And hey, and that's how they order it. A lot of times if you sort it by ADP and, you know,

their pre-draft rankings, there's a reason why those guys are going in that spot. So maybe that some of it will start to change, but I still think we're going to see hints of this stuff lingering later into draft season. Yeah, I agree. I agree. And right now is a great time to draft, get the best values possible here at Fantasy Points. We have got you locked in. Another great episode of Fantasy Football Daily for Tom.

I'm Graham. we will see you guys at the top of the leaderboards.