Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Football 2025 Fades & Targets: Players to Draft and Avoid w/ Nelson Sousa

Episode Date: August 15, 2025

Use code SCOREMORE10 at checkout for 10% OFF any subscription. Dominate your league. Win more bets. Level up your game In today’s Fantasy Football Daily, we’re breaking down the biggest must-draft players and the busts to avoid for the 2025 season. We debate whether Christian McCaffrey is getting steamed up too high, if Saquon Barkley is worth the price tag, and why you might want to tread carefully with JSN or Baker Mayfield. We also spotlight breakout candidates like Ricky Pearsall and Nelson’s favorite rookie outside of Ashton Jeanty. Plus, we tackle tricky backfields — from Dallas and the Jets to Green Bay and Pittsburgh — and discuss growing injury concerns for Kenneth Walker and Malik Nabers. Draft season is here, and this episode will help you make the right calls when you’re on the clock. Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/⁠ ⁠ Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Podcast Transcription Here: Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #FantasyFootball #2025Rankings #DaveKluge #RB1 #WR1 #QB1 #TE1 #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is bedtime a nightmare? If you fear the chance of accidental leakage and skin irritation, you need to try tennis sensitive care overnight pads. Its skin comfort formula acts as a barrier to help protect your skin. Try them now and have a smooth night. Talking fantasy football fades, players we are passing on in drafts and draft strategy, less than a month ago to the NFL season, Theo Greminger, Fantasy Football Daily on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network,

joined today by Nelson Sousa of FTN. One of the best high stakes players in the country, a guy that I split a couple of teams with every single year. Nelson, let's not waste time here. Let's talk about it. Christian McCaffrey, this has been an interesting click for a lot of managers. I've been lower on him in ADP, been a lot of people here at Fantasy Points throughout the offseason.

I've actually moved him up from like my initial May rankings. I did take him at 201 in an FFPC main event, but a lot of times we're seeing him going at like the 107, 108. He's very, very much entrenched inside of the middle of the first round. Where are you at on CMC where you have to use like a top seven pick on him? So for me, where I'm at with CMC is this. If I'm playing in a tournament style setting, I want exposure to CMC. because when I ask myself the question of like what players could break fantasy,

what players could be like the top at their position, CMC is one of those guys. So if he stays healthy, he's most likely a top three running back, if not the best fantasy player this year. If he's healthy. His usage is tremendous and just the talent alone, past catching ability. That's a big piece. So for me, I'm not full fading him. I definitely want to have

some exposure because you fade a guy like that and he's like, you know, RB1 in fantasy. Like you're, you're going to have a bad year if you're if you've got zero shares. So Nelson, you're, you're a high stakes, but also a volume player where you're drafting quite often. When you're seeing with CMC and your comments on CMC, does the injuries to guys like Jordan James and Isaac Garrendo behind CMC where neither one of those guys has had like a clean off season or like a really buzz filled off season, has that made you a little bit more confident with Christian McCaffery where even if San Francisco wanted to like not decrease his touches but not go overboard with his weekly touches, they really might have to from a competition standpoint, just based on all the,

like the players around him in that backfield. Are you kind of on that as well? No. Jordan James is just a draft pick. Like there's nothing to him as far as he hasn't done anything to this point for me to say, oh, he's going to cut into CMC's touches. Garendo would be a guy that I would consider that because we got to see a glimpse of what he looks like with, you know, a decent amount of volume. And, you know, he's capable of putting up big numbers. But I'm not worried about that if CMC is healthy. Because the way I look at it is, as if CMC's healthy and he's on the field, there is no, oh, time share or anything like that. Shanahan just gives him the rock. So when he came finally came back last year. It was the CMC show and that was it.

Like there wasn't like, let's ease him in, you know, that type of thing. So I'm not worried about that part. I'm just worried about him just being, you know, the Achilles coming back and the tendinitis and everything. That's what I'm worried about. Now, let's take this question a different way. If you are drafting in one league or two leagues, maybe you're only drafting in your big home league, maybe you have maybe two big home leagues and that's it and those are what's most important to you and you're sitting there like the 108 109 and you're on the clock and Christian McCaffrey is available to you if it was a single bullet drafter who would be your pick sort of in that range or would you still lean into Christian McCaffrey and say sort of the upside wins championships

I'm chasing the highest outcome with my only league in a home league type setting confined league i look at it as like my first round pick i just want it to be safe i don't want to have a landmine so i'm probably going to gravitate to one of the receivers that i think are super safe i think um you know a chan is is a good option if you're worried about cmc but a chan has his own you know worries everyone's injury prone in the NFL at the end of the day is how I look at it. Some guys maybe a little bit more than most, but I wouldn't blame anyone for taking CMC, but I think like a safer pick would be like a MonRah. I think like a receiver like that, people are kind of disrespecting him a little bit,

I think this year, based on where he's going in drafts. And I think he's like a lock for like a hundred receptions. They give him red zone targets. So like his touchdowns are, you know, his opportunities are always there for touchdowns. So like that would be like the type of like safe pick that that I would take. I don't need to like go, you know, boom or bust in like a confined league. So I just dropped my top 100 PPR rankings with writeups on every player over at fantasy points.

You can read that for free. You want to subscribe to. fantasy points, use the code Theo 2025, get yourself something off for the season. But Nelson, I rank Sequin Barclay at five. And I had him as my RB3 behind Bejohn and Jemir Gibbs. With Seqwan, it's sort of a, when you say the name Sequan Berkeley to fantasy managers or analysts these days, there's some very strong takes on him. He was unbelievable last year, had 2,000 rushing yards.

but there's been sort of a slow drip of people talking about the 482 touches he had last year. It was the 10th most in NFL history. The last two running backs that we can look at that had this sort of workload were Aryan Foster and who was the other one? It was Eddie, Eddie George. It was trying to go back to the most recent. It was definitely Aryan Foster. and I'm going to double check this one. Priest Holmes. Yep, yeah. So there you go.

Eddie George is definitely, I think, the most recent. Yeah, Eddie George was in the year 2000. So yeah, Priest Holmes was definitely a higher volume guy as well. So we go Eddie George, okay, so it was Larry Johnson's the one I'm forgetting. So Larry Johnson, 2006 and Arian Foster in 2012 were the two most recent mega high volume players. Like we're talking about 465 touches, including the playoffs. And both of those guys saw regression the following season. And what's interesting is both of those players had big rebound seasons the year after that. So have the huge volume, regress, and then bounce back.

Saquan Barkley, when you say anything sort of negative about a potential outcome with Saquan Berkeley, people kind of get furious. They'll say, you're not factoring in the elite offensive line. You're not factoring in the elite rushing upside of Jalen Hertz. This offensive ecosystem for Barclays, unlike, like, you know, it's one of the best in the league. Just treat him as it is. If I get him at five or six, I'm not worried about it at all. So again, I have him ranked five, but I can see the downside case. Where have you been at with your exposure to Seguan. Where are you mixing him in? Where are you comfortable drafting him at? Yeah, he's a guy that I'm going to proceed with caution just because historically, right,

those touches make a difference on a guy. I also believe in like his, it was a little bit of outlier season in terms of like if you told me Jalen Hertz was going to to have 14 rushing touchdowns. I would have told you that I probably don't want anything to do with Saquan, that there's just not enough meat on the bone. And he's not going to really get many touchdowns. They're going to do the tush push again. But that happened and Saquan had double-digit touchdowns. So I don't know if that happens where he's going to score from that far out as often. You could say like his receptions could go up a little bit, but like in that offense, like that's a little bit capped.

So like that was a little bit as a red flag for me that he only caught 33. And it's not because I don't think he can catch the ball. I think he's a very good pass catcher out of the backfield. But he only caught 33. So like I'm not going to be like all in on him. But at the right price, because he's, he'll fall in a few drafts here and there. At the right price, I'll get some exposure to him in case like he's just that dude that's just different. and he can handle, you know, back-to-back years of, like, big volume.

Yeah, it's interesting. If you look at an NFFC ADP, and they have that for free over NFFC's website, and just specifically looking at the $350 entry, Rodawire online championship drafts, you see Sequin with a minimum of one, meaning somebody in August has taken him with the 101, and then you see a maximum of 10, which is a really, kind of a wide gap for for a player so he's got a 10 spot gap of 10 spot swing so when you say like he'll fall like some people say you know not in my league bro he's not falling in my league but he does fall in a lot of these ffPC NFFC leagues where it gets into like that range where

it's like eight nine 10 to me that's a huge edge it just becomes more of an opportunity cost thing for me when i have to take him at four where he's surrounded by guys like Gibbs and roc Robinson, who are 23 years old, less tread on the tires, not coming off of that level of volume. And then CD Lamb, who I have is my wide receiver too. So for me, Sequin, I'm in on, but I'm in on, like, without reaching. I think that's a good way of kind of describing it. Yeah, I agree. That's where I'm out.

Awesome. Well, we're going to take a quick break. We come back. We're talking more fades with Nelson Sousa. All right, welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily. So I gave a little preface to this. So if you don't know who Nelson is, Nelson, I've podcasted with a ton over the years. We also split the New York Super, which is a big, really, really competitive league that we do in the NFFC.

It's a live draft in New York. It's a $2,500 entry. It's big stakes. It's a closed 12-team league. Some of the best high-stakes managers in the country also competes. in that. Chris Vaccaro, Billy Wazzowski. It's just a murderer's row of drafters. And then Nelson, you're going to participate in a ton of these 350s. You do a ton of the prime times, very high volume. Nelson has done extremely well over the years, not only in NFFC, but also in FFP, has immense

success in high stakes fantasy, one of the most respected high stakes managers in the country. You're also producing content for FTN, and that's where the fades list comes in. Let everybody know sort of what the fades list is and the content you're dropping over at FTN. All right. So just quickly, I don't want to bore everyone with the- No autobiography. You can do the- The whole origin story, but like, you know, just kind of quickly. So I started playing fantasy. I quickly realized that I needed to be able to fade the landmines and avoid those. early round picks that became bus and things like that. Injuries, you know, that happens.

It is what it is. You can't really control that. So what ended up happening was I started setting like the groundwork for like having a set of rules for my, my fade list. And I have that for like certain players, certain positions, things like that. And it's, I guess it's, you know, one. Once I got into the content side of things and started, you know, promoting my work, it has become popular over the years because my hit rate on the guys that I'm fading has been, you know, better than than not.

And it's usually high profile players that are going in like the first few rounds because I look at it as like, why am I going to list to someone, you know, fade this guy and the 12th round like who who cares that's that guy is not breaking your fantasy season because you know you lost your 12th round pick so to me it's like you know the the first five six rounds like that's what matters that that's what hurts if you your guy bus yeah i i i like that and you've taken some like really big swings on your your fade list over the years um it's definitely not for the faint of heart A lot of times, Nelson, you drop this in like, the fade list comes out, what, like July 1st-ish, every year? Like mid-July.

Yeah, like mid-July. So a bunch of drafts have already gone by. And then you log in and you see Nelson's fade list. And it's like, oh, my God, I drafted a couple of these guys. So you don't want to really go head to head. The fade list, you know, you can't bat a thousand. But over the years, you've had some massive hits on guys you've faded that the market liked. and then it ended up working out in your favor.

So definitely check it out, check out all of his work. And a big shout out to the fantasy empire, really, really high level, high stakes fantasy discussion. That's with Dan Williamson. Well, I also split some teams with Matt Modica and Chris Vicaro. Chris, Matt, Dan, also excellent high stakes players. That shows a really, really strong list. And check that out wherever you get your pods.

So definitely recommend Nelson's work. Now let's keep it going. You know, you talked about CMC, Seacuan. One wide receiver that I think were a little bit out of line with where one player where I think I'm a little bit higher on than you are, but it's Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. Sort of your vibes with JSN, your comfort level with him where he's going, ADP was. I think third round is rich. So that's the other thing, too, is like when I fade guys, I'm really not biased.

in the fade because JSN was one of my highest own players last year. And he came through. Like he was really good. I just think that when you change the O.C. And you talk about you want to go run heavy. You didn't like the philosophy with grub and being so pass heavy. You get rid of D.K., which people can see as a plus. I look at it as a negative because D.K. was on the outside.

he kept defenses a little bit honest with the corners and everything, not having to, you know, really bunch up the middle of the field for JSN. You replace him with Cooper Cup, who I don't, like, to me, like, at this stage of his career, I'm not looking at him as like, oh, you know, that's the reason why, you know, JSN could be a bust. But it's just the fact that Cooper Cup is better suited to be in the slot these days and not play outside. And if he does play outside and JSN stays kind of like in his, you know,

slot role that he had last year, I don't think defenses really are going to respect that. And I think you can kind of shrink the field, the middle of the field for JSN a little bit because that would be the guy that I'd be trying to stop. So there's that. The offensive line is not that great. And I think they got a downgrade at quarterback.

say what you want. Like, Gino maybe is not a great fantasy quarterback, but I think he's a good NFL quarterback. And I don't think Sam Darnold's that good. Like, he had a great year, and I think it was because of the system. But he got exposed at the end of the year. And that's what I keep going back to is what did he look like when the lights were the brightest and, you know, his offensive line couldn't protect him. So that that worries me a little bit too for JSN because I could see this as just being like this like run heavy team trying to win games.

And JSN is not really like necessarily a priority. So that that's my case for why you should avoid JSN in the third round. Theo, you're going to tell us why we're going to take them. Go ahead. Well, yeah, I'm going to, I'll go little devil's advocate with you. And I'll just say, and one other thing that I think it's appreciate about the way you draft and the fade list is when Nelson says he's fading a player, he's fading them at ADP. And I think that's one of the things where you get these fantasy managers who maybe are angry about the way something went in years before. Maybe they were burned on a player in years past.

a lot of times your fade list will include a player where in a draft if he falls, your valuation changes a little bit about him. So if JSN was a fourth round pick, would you be clicking the button way more often, or would you still have the same sort of reservations? I think, you know, fourth round, it's not a huge difference, but it's still a difference. And I think that at that point, it's, you know, it's a little. more reasonable because where he's going around in the third round, there's Lamar Jackson,

there's Trey McBride in non-premium drafts, not non-tight-end premium drafts. And there's other receivers that I like, you know, more than JSN, like, you know, T. Higgins. I rather have T. Higgins. I think T. Higgins' ceiling is bigger than JSN. So, yeah, it's. ADP factors in and who's around him when he's on the board. I think that's a great argument for it. And I know we talked in the pre-show sort of positively about T. Higgins and sort of,

he's just a guy that doesn't have a whole lot of buzz right now with fantasy managers. He just goes where he is. A lot of people take him structurally. I agree with you. I think T. Higgins is a really, really, really fun click. My argument with JSN would be, even though the D.K. like was was there last year json catches 100 passes but he had this like 9.2 a dot i think he's going to get some more opportunities to make plays downfield and then cup has to play in the slot a lot i agree

but i don't think jsn slot usage is going to disappear i still think they'll manufacture a lot of plays for him in the slot i think cup can play on the outside as a blocker um in this kubiak offense there are still wide receivers to block so i think jason has that And what's interesting with JSN is everyone would assume that the target share was massive because he's got this, you know, this slot reputation, catches 100 balls. But the target share has room to run as well. So I think this year we see a little bit higher ADOT. We see the target share go way up.

I think the first read rate goes up. And there's just some positive vibes with him. So I think I'm just a little more comfortable taking him in that range. I understand your reservations about. the offensive line play. And I agree with you that I think this Kubiak scheme was put in for them to be better at running the ball. But it's a low bar for that. They were like bottom five in rushing yards last year. So I like your argument with the Trey McBride. I think he's a really safe pick in this range. Lamar is obviously a really safe pick in this range. And those one-off positions

might be the safest way to kind of navigate the third round right now, especially with NFFC ADP. So I will admit you have some very good takes on that was Jason. We'll just be we'll bump heads a little bit on this one. I'm sure we'll touch base like through eight games this year. No, listen, I have no problem. I don't take it personal. I actually appreciate the pushback as long as it's not like, you know, disrespectful pushback.

But I enjoy like arguing and making, you know, rebuttals back and forth. But like I will say this. When you look back at drafts, even like last year and then the year before, and you look at a draft board just ADP-wise, right? It's littered with landmines, right? Like the third round, just a bunch of guys that just didn't hit, right? They just busted.

And that's going to be true again this year. But like there's guys that I actually think, and I'm getting off subject, but like the third round to me is the hardest round for me personally to navigate. And and I think there's just a lot of guys there that have potential and have a lot of question marks. And the guys that I think are like almost bus proof outside of an injury is guys like Lamar, Josh Allen. And then like Trey McBride, I don't see like how I don't see a path where he bused. if he's healthy. So like there's just safer options.

And I think there's something to be said about just clicking on one of those elite quarterbacks getting exposure to those type of guys. And and then like figuring out your receiver or you're running back in the fourth, fifth round as opposed to like you take these guys and then, you know, things don't work out really. I remember having this conversation with Chris Vicaro a few years ago. And a shout out to Chris. Again, one of the better high stakes managers.

anywhere as a number of overall finishes to his name. But we talked about it at the time where it was the return of early QB. And early QB was sort of the became kind of fashionable. Now we're back to early QB being in a range where, okay, I get it. It's Lamar Jackson at the two three turn. It's Josh Allen, the two three turn in NFFC.

It's Lamar Jackson at the three four turn. in FFPC. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, all are in like a range where it doesn't feel gross having to take them there. It actually feels like it's an edge pick. And I think Chris was the take was the same as yours. It's landmine ridden where you sometimes see the running back sort of failing to deliver. Sometimes it's that wide receiver that the market pushes up way too high.

like you said, you can go back every single year and find like a third round wide receiver who really, really didn't deliver. The quarterbacks, unless they get hurt, when they're that elite level and they have that rushing ability and they're in elite offenses, they're really safe picks. And safe picks sometimes gets people like rolling their eyes. They're like, I don't want to think safe. I want to swing for the fence on every pick. But I think that's sort of the nature of the fades list. do you kind of agree that mixing in elite quarterback is a viable strategy this year, Nelson? I do because once we get into the season, right?

And let's say head to head, you've got your match and you're up by like 22 points and you're feeling pretty good. And then you go and look at your opponent and he's got Lamar Jackson left. on Monday night, you're like, all right, chalk it up. It's a loss, most likely, right? And but if like you go and look and he's got, you know, Kyla Murray on Monday night, you're like, there's a chance. Like I feel pretty good. I'm in the game.

So there's something to be said of like those elite quarterbacks. They're just, they're difference makers and they're, they're an edge. in the third round, I don't think it's this like high price to pay for those particular guys. Even Joe Burrow, their defense sucks. Okay. Yeah. They're going to, they're going to be in shootouts, okay, once again. So Joe Burrow is another guy that I think is like a viable option.

And he doesn't go in the third round. He goes later in drafts. But I think he should be put up there with Lamar and. and Josh Allen. Yeah, I'm with you with Burrow. I have Burrow, like, way higher in my rankings than he goes. I made the case that I think Burrow could have that 2013 Peyton Manning, like, 50 touchdown past season in this, in 2025, 2026.

I think that's, like, in the range of outcomes. Unbelievable skill position talent around him. I even like the Noah Phant pickup. Like they run 12 personnel a lot and not saying fan's going to be fantasy viable, but it's just another guy out there who's a threat. Yosivas, Jermaine Burton has better vibes than last year. Chase Brown is going to have a really strong season. And Jamar Chase is the best player in fantasy and not even talking about T. Higgins.

So I'm with you. The, the, the, the, the, Burrow is a really strong pick this year. No question about it. I'm very into him. One quarterback that's interesting, Nelson. So like quarterback's one of the. the easiest to predict where they're going in in your league once you get through the top six it goes the big three quarterbacks then you see burrow and hurts so the big five essentially then patrick

mahome sort of exists in his own little tier someone's going to reach for him sometimes he falls but he's sort of always that quarterback then you get to qb seven on and qb seven on people have their favorites their flag planning guys but usually one of the first quarterback selects from QB7 on is Baker Mayfield. Baker's had some tremendous moments in Tampa, has some very good pass catchers around him, had a ton of touchdown passes last year. I believe it was 41, was his final total.

He's a player that maybe you're not as into this year. He's not. And again, it's part of it is ADP because of where he goes. So I feel like once you get past hurts, there's like a little drop and then there's Mahomes. And then there's possibly like another round and then Baker goes off the board. And I feel like I'll take Baker when he drops and drafts, but I'm not like actively targeting him.

And I also don't like love the vibes this year. You're changing OC. It could be a nothing burger or it could. It could be an issue, and the offense kind of sputters a little bit without Liam Cohen. And as far as the vibes that I'm talking about is this. Mike Evans, hamstring injury, that's just a reminder to people that he's up there in age, I believe 32 years old entering the season, history of hamstring injuries. Like I could see where he missed his time.

Chris Godwin, right? you know had all off season to to heal up sounds like he had a second procedure what does that look like is he going to be ready for the season um i just don't i don't necessarily like love the vibe so it's it's a guy that i'm not really actively targeting and i will say this i love abuka and i'm all in on a on abuka and i think mcmillan uh is also also a very talented receiver. So people could point to, well, if Evans, Godwin, misses time, we got a Buka who's like in the Hall of Fame already, right?

He's definitely a Hall of Fame. Yeah, yeah, he's a Hall of Famer. And then McMillan, right? So, you know, the offense doesn't skip a beat. I look at it as kind of this. Yes, I'm in on a Buka because if Evans or Godwin misses time, I think he could be like a PPR monster. But I could also see where if Evans Godwin misses time,

Baker disappoints. And I think both can be true. Yeah, it's a very interesting take. Baker had some rushing production last year. I just think with Baker, it's a, I like Baker a lot. I think more than you do. But it's a opportunity costing where if I have to take him at the QB7,

not so into it, but there has been drafts where that entire tier of QBs just drops. And I see it a little bit more in FFPC than NFFC. And anybody listening like it says, you know, why does the ADP bounce brown? The basic reason is with quarterbacks, NFFC's six point passing touchdown, FFPC is four point passing touchdown, NFFC is start three wide receivers, FFPC, you start two of them, two flexes FFPC, one flex NFFC, and then the big difference is the 1.5 point tight-end premium scoring for the tight-end position in FFPC.

So the ADPs don't match up completely. They're similar on subpositions, though. But I'll say with Baker, I've mixed him in when he falls. And I do think Nelson, as we get more and more along the lines of this month, you're going to see way more variance between like QB7 and QB12 because I think people are going to start forming their stacks. they're going to start taking their guys. And also you're not the only smart person who's been bringing up Baker Mayfield.

Like J.J. Zacharyason has talked about him as a big touchdown regression guy, just the touchdown rate sort of unsustainable. So there's a lot of people sort of on this train with Baker question marks. Also the Tristan Wharf stuff where when does Tristan Wharf's return? One of the best offensive linemen in football, certainly the best on Tampa Bay. So he's a very interesting one. Let's take one break and we come back. We're going to talk about ambiguous backfields.

Backfields where we have question marks about which running back is going to be the highest fantasy score on the team. See which way Nelson is leaning with a couple of them. All right. Welcome back. Fantasy Football Daily. Let's start out. At Desjardin, we speak business. We speak startup funding and comprehensive game plans.

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who was very good last year, his first year as a Viking. And then you've got Jordan Mason, who's been really, really steaming up since the summer began, they have a very converging ADP. They usually go close to one another, whether it's underdog, FFPC, NFFC. We like the offensive line in Minnesota. We think they're going to score some points this year. Which running back are you betting on in this backfield? Well, here's the thing. Aaron Jones is a little bit older. he doesn't fit my profile of running back that I like to take unless he's like a big discount. But at the same time, I think Jordan Mason is starting to go a little too high because I think he's just basically like more touchdown dependent. He's going to get some carries.

But Aaron Jones is like he's not going away. Like he's not taking Aaron Jones's job outside of injury. So it's kind of interesting where I was basically like fading Aaron Jones. And now I'm at the point where I'm like, well, you know what? Aaron Jones is going a little too late and Mason's going a little too early. So I'm on the fence with that one, to be honest. Because I could see where they want to go a little bit more, run the ball a little more than they did last year.

they got McCarthy. That's an interesting dynamic with that offense and what that offense looks like because McCarthy's very different profile than Donald and Kirk Cousins there. And it makes me wonder, and I'm not, you know, I'm not meaning this to be a hot take, but it just makes me wonder about like Jefferson and what the ceiling is with Jefferson this year. this year in particular, because I think he's, you know, one of the top receivers in football. But I don't know. I feel like they're going to run the ball more.

McCarthy, you know, what he, you know, I don't know. He liked the tight end in college. He runs himself. So I don't know. I know we're talking about the backfield. and I kind of got off subject. But I think it's one of those interesting offenses this year that I really don't know what their identity necessarily is going to be.

But to answer your question, I think I'm like not really on either guy unless they fall a little bit in a draft and then I'll take them. I had them ranked back to back in my top 100. And I think that they're both going in a range where it's worth getting exposure to because if McCarthy struggles, I think it's almost a benefit to Mason because they're going to have to run the ball a little bit more. If it's more of a free-flowing offense, I think that you'll see a lot more Aaron Jones. The one, even the, even with the, even the most bullish Jordan Mason drafter, I know we're friends with a couple of guys who have a ton of exposure to Jordan Mason.

even with the Jordan Mason enthusiasm, the Jordan Addison suspension where he's going to miss the first three games of the season sort of makes Aaron Jones as a receiver out of the backfield a little bit more of a story you can tell yourself, where Hawkinson, Aaron Jones, one of those two guys I think will see a little bit more target share than they would have if Addison was on the field. I think it's going to consolidate a little bit.

So I agree with you. And I think with Jefferson, he's never a guy that it's you know i would fade but i have him rank like six overall in my ppr rankings right there with malik neighbors um but like you said if the offense sputters a little bit it's one of those years where there's just so much appealing wide receiver talent behind him that jefferson could average 17 18 points per game but you might be missing out on a wide receiver who average 20 points per game a couple picks behind him if it's sort of works out well. So a lot, a lot of pressure on McCarthy to kind of get this thing going.

Yeah. See, my worry with Jefferson, it's not even like the hamstring injury because I think it's probably minor enough and he's got plenty of time to get fully healthy before the season. My issue is that he's missing valuable reps with McCarthy, right? So like it's a new quarterback for him. So in order to get like that chemistry and build on it, I think it could start off, you know, a little rough, could be a little rocky. Yeah, it's definitely, definitely an interesting one. And it's a tilting one because, you know, passing on Justin Jefferson, it just feels weird to pass on him. You know, it's sort of a mid first round type value.

But I've done it. I've had a couple of FFPC drafts where I've gone the other way. I still want to pack in some exposure to Jefferson. We'll keep an eye on that hamstring throughout the rest of the month as well. quickly the Dallas backfield. Is Javante Williams a guy that you feel a certain confidence level? Or is it just a player that's being, hey, the situation's good. I'm going to mix it a little because he's the most likely candidate to kind of lead the backfield

if we're going to believe all the beat reporters and all the camp reports. Yeah, we talked about this before the show started, right? We started going down this road is the fact that, I think with running back, unlike the wide receiver position, you don't necessarily need to have a ton of talent. It's more about the opportunity. And to sustain that, it's running backs with vision. They know how to hit the hole. They know which hole to hit.

You know, those factors matter more than just having like superstar talent. And with Giovante, I'm not a big fan of his. But at the end of the day, someone's. got a has to carry the ball in Dallas. Someone's got to get goal line touches and someone's going to catch a few passes out of the backfield. And I think he's best suited for that. Jaden Blue is a guy that I don't see like based on his build than everything. I don't see him as like a guy that's going to get like like a ton of run. I could see him mixing in 100 because he's a different style than I think Sanders is kind of, you know, I don't know.

I think he's past his prime. Yeah. He's whatever. Javante is the guy that, you know, he had some unfortunate, you know, an injury, ACL. So that's kind of like derailed that train from when his rookie year, he looked really good. So, yeah, I could see it where, you know, he's healthy. He's the best option there in that backfield. I could also see where Dallas, if he's not impressing, I could see where Dallas makes a move at some point before the season.

And it could be something like minor, but it could be a running back that's just better than Giovante that comes in. But right now, as of today, yeah, I'm drafting Giovante just on the simple fact that I think he's the guy that's going to get the volume. Yeah, I mean, the thing that resonates with me with Giovante is if he's going to get, the targets out of the backfield, then I think he'll deliver enough. It's a capped upside bed. I think it's more of a structural pick where if I need to get something out of the running back two position early on in the year, and that's sort of the way my team is built, I wouldn't view Javante as a guy that I'd want to like cram into flexes, that sort of

player. I think it's more of a structural pick, but I get it. I sort of have taken the pro Jaden Blue stance all off season long because it's enticing where you have two running backs who don't have any speed. And you've got Jaden Blue runs a four three flat. Jaden Blue can catch the football. But it just we don't have the buzz. Jaden Blue's been a little banged up recently. We just don't have the vibes that he's going to make that early season impact.

So I get it. If you're drafting a hero RB team, you need RB2, drafted a zero RB team. you're trying to play catch up with guys that are going to get weekly touches. Giovante certainly is the best bet for the first month of the season. I do worry, I agree with you completely. Maybe Dallas makes a move for Travis ETN. There's some rumblings out there. That would certainly give us something to talk about,

be a fun little twist for our last couple weeks of drafts too. Let's keep it going with a backfield that's very interesting. And this is one where people have very strong takes. It's the Pittsburgh Steelers backfield, where you've got Caleb Johnson, mega productive player at Iowa, a third round pick this year. And then you've got Jalen Warren, who's had some strong years under Mike Tomlin, made the team as an undrafted free agent years ago. He was a Mike Tomlin favorite. He sort of really had a huge impact on Najee Harris, where Harris was a big time pass catcher as a rookie.

And then his numbers came cratering down because of the presence of. of Warren. Warren has a year where he had over a thousand combined yards. He had a couple of productive games to end last season. This is one that's giving drafters major headaches, and I think there's some strong takes in either direction. Should drafters be investing in Jalen Warren? And he goes sort of in the 90s range on NFFC drafts, or Caleb Johnson, who goes somewhere in the early like the high 70s like low 60s high 70s yeah i'm i'm off of calum jalen warren would be my pick uh because i think he's going to handle all the passing down work and the way i look at it is you know we've seen now practice reports we saw it in the

preseason he just does not look very smooth catching the football that Caleb johnson and i think jalen warren is very good at catching the football. And I also think that like you have Aaron Rogers behind center, old Aaron Rogers, grumpy. And I could see where like a scenario where he's like, listen, I can't have this kid out here. Like missing, you know, past protection assignments. I'm trying to, you know, I'm getting, you know, bull rushed and I need to be able to dump it off quick. I need a guy that can has sticky hands and can get up the field.

And Caleb just looks like it takes them a little while to get moving. So that's why I think Jalen Warren is going to get a bigger piece of the pie than most people think. And then the other thing, too, is when I'm underweight on a player or fading a player, I always ask myself the question of this guy that I'm going to have low ownership on, can he break fantasy? And I don't see it with Caleb Johnson because if something happened to Jalen Warren, I actually think Kainiff Gainwell would come right in and play all the passing down work. So I just don't I don't see a ceiling with Caleb Johnson. That's why I think at his price, I much rather wait a couple more rounds and then take Warren.

And really, this is sort of more of a dynasty discussion, but it certainly applies to redraft. We talked about it in the pre-show, and it's something that it will monitor this year. if Caleb Johnson fails to deliver, we've seen a number of these third round pick running backs really, really fail to take off, at least initially in their career last year. We saw Blake Corum, Trey Benson, neither one of them paid off.

Certainly were those cost drafters a lot. There was drafts last year. I was in some of those NFFC drafts with you where we saw people really reaching to get Corum, reaching to get Benson, ensure that they get those guys, a little bit ahead of ADP. Years before Kendrae Miller

really failed to deliver. So the third round, with all due respect to our guy, Devon A-chan, there's been a lot of misses in this round. So if this does come into fruition, two things, two takeaways here. If Johnson doesn't deliver this year, it means Jalen Warren is going to be a really,

really strong pick because he can catch passes out of the backfield. And this is a team where there's not just enough, there's not enough mouse to feed that we are not going to see a little bit of running back production there. And Arthur Smith, to his credit, has had a number of seasons where he's produced

with a lot of different kinds of running backs, Tyler Algier, Corderole Patterson, and then, you know, obviously the Derek Henry, Bijon Robinson, the guy down the street from you could produce with those guys. But Corderole, Tyler Alger, those guys were really productive under Smith. So we'll keep an eye on that one very quickly, in or out on Breece Hall and Brayland Allen. This is not an ambiguous backfield.

Hall goes rounds and rounds and rounds ahead of them. But we're starting to have a little bit of clarity about how things are shaping up in New York. Bruce Hall's a litmus test guy. I think a lot of drafters look at him and they say, Bruce Hall's never average fewer than 15 points per game. He can catch passes. And New York doesn't have anybody. He's got to be a value to me at the end of the third, early fourth.

there's some who look at him and say, maybe this is an Aaron Glenn's guy. Now you got Braylon Allen who's steaming up. You're starting to see him routinely selected inside of the 10th round, occasionally going a little higher. By the time we get to Vegas, I could see more ninth round Braylon Allen sort of being the norm. How are you handling this Jets backfield?

Do you have interest in it? Yeah, so early on in camp, we had chatter with Aaron Glenn and the coach is talking about, we love this running back room. you know, it's going to be a committee. We're going to, you know, Alan's going to get touches. Isaiah Davis we like. But like, Breece is our past catching guy.

All those things that, you know, coaches are going to talk highly of their players, right? They're not going to shit on their players. But first preseason game, Aaron Glenn could be trolling us, but that was ugly. That was a committee and basically what he had told us. So going off of that, this offense, like, even if it's just Allen and Brees and not Isaiah Davis, and people looking at it as like, oh, you know, coming from Detroit, it's going to be very similar. The Jets offense is not the lion's offense. So to me, you know, I don't necessarily want a part of, you know, the most expensive guy in this committee,

even if it's Brees, you know, catching passes. So I need to see, like, Brees needs to fall further down the draft for me to be interested in him. Right now, at the end of the third round, I'm not really interested in Brees. And it's just off of, like I said, you know, Glenn could be trolling me and I could fall, you know, I'm falling for it. You know, I'm a sucker. But I think he's, right now, he's a man of his word. Like, that's just going to be one of those situations where Alan's going to get enough touches. that I don't see where Brees, you know, pays off that price in that offense.

So that's my opinion on it. And then are you mixing in some Braille and Allen structurally? Yeah. I'm definitely mixing in Braylin Allen. He's not like, it's interesting because I think he is one of the good handcuff running backs types. and he tends to go like he goes later than like give you an example like trey benson right that's that would be like a handcuff type um ray davis is is another guy um you know there's a few of them and i i i alan seems

to go just below those guys so yeah i'm i'm naturally interested in in allen at his price yeah no i'm i'm a big braille and allen i moved him inside of my top 100 so i've been like sort of banging the drum for that. I get it with Breast Hall. It's scary. I think that the way he gets us, if the way he gets people that are not overloading is if he catches a lot of passes. But I think that there's a chance that goal line goes to Braylon Allen no matter what. And you talk about the offense, this offense could sputter. There's going to be improved offensive line play. Justin Fields, very mobile. But again, you're one for this system and not a lot of skill position talent. New York could sputter. And if they say,

butter, you're talking about a player that we want to catch a lot of passes out of the backfield, not getting a whole lot of touchdown opportunities. Reese Hall's never rushed for a thousand yards in any season in his career. So really, really polarizing player right now at ADP. We're going to take one more quick break. We come back. We're talking about a couple of breakout players Nelson's betting on. All right.

So Nelson, we'll go lightning round on this one. Really generous with your time. This show has been awesome. But a couple of years back, Nelson, we did this show. and I said, what rookie do you like this year? Who you've been drafting a lot of rookie wise? And it was an interesting take at the time. It was Amman Ross St. Brown.

And you made this case for drafting Amman Raus St. Brown and just sticking him on your bench. And he's going to get an opportunity based on the wide receivers around him in Detroit. And you liked his talent profile coming out of USC. And then Amon Raa St. Brown was like a league winner down the stretch. Then the two of us, a couple years back, drafted Pukkah, in the New York Super. He broke NFFC waiver wires.

People were bidding like $900 for them. We drafted them. So like you've had some really good hits rookie wise. No one thinks of you as like some dynasty guy, but you've had a bunch of rookie hits. Give me a rookie or two that have been part of your draft strategy this season. Yeah. So here's the thing.

What's unique about those guys, those are a few years apart. right Theo? So at the end of the day, like sometimes we're trying to chase that that same hit that we made and it's just not nowhere to be found. So Amman Ra, I just had a lot of conviction on that. Puka, I had a lot of conviction on that pick. And I would say like this year, I don't necessarily, you know, have that late round, the vibe on that late round wide receiver that I have a strong conviction on that I think is, is going to hit. Well, how about give me a go high profile.

Yeah, go earlier. Yeah, go, go for it. Yeah, and I would just give you a little props on that one. So I'll say like, since the Amon-Ross, St. Brown situation happened, like, the whole rookie wide receivers being cheat code was something drafters kind of knew about. Now the market's moved with it. You're paying higher premiums. That being said, you've also had four out of the last five years where we've had at least one top six score in PPR that was a rookie.

This year, people wanted to kind of fade that. But for me, I think Ted McMillan is going to be a smash pick. I love taking him in drafts. There's a bunch of running back. So we'll take Gentie out of the mix here. Take away the highest draft. one. When you take Gentie out of it, who's a player that you think could be really good that you have some exposure to? There's two guys at running back, Trevion Henderson and R.J. Harvey.

Love it. And they're both going to be in committees. So I'm not going to lie to myself and say, love the talent profile. They're too good. Dobbins and Stevenson suck. At the end of the day, like it doesn't matter like what I think and how highly I think of of the rookie. It's just the fact of the matter is that those coaches are going to involve those veteran guys. And they're just not going to go away. Now, the upside where they get unlocked, Henderson and Harvey, is if Stevenson puts the ball on the ground, and that's been kind of an issue for him throughout his career. I could see where Henderson, like, starts getting a bigger piece of the pie.

And in the second half, that train is just rolling. And he's, he's a difference maker with Harvey. Not to interrupt you, but Anderson feels like a 2026 top 20 pick in every draft. He'll be top 20 pick in like NFFC, FPC, heading into his second year. And that momentum will be established in the second half of the year. So I totally love that take, Nelson. Yeah. And here's a thing.

too. I actually think he has a floor because I do think that he's the passing down specialist in McDaniel's offense. And that counts for something. So like people are going to be disappointed where Henderson is going if that's all he is and Stevenson doesn't go away. But I also think like that's still going to be like he's still going to be solid. Like not what you were expecting out of the pick, but still solid. And then with Harvey, Dobbins has never had a healthy season, you know, in his career. And I've always liked Dobbins talent and he's gone through, you know, through some rough times with his injuries. If Harvey, if something happens to Dobbins, like Harvey, when I watched him in that preseason game, and I know it's a small sample,

but some guys like for me the way I look at is when I'm watching football some guys have that it factor and then some guys are like okay to me he's scary if you are underweight on that guy because of the offense that he's in and his talent profile and you know the offensive line is tremendous Peyton I could see Harvey like breaking fantasy if like Dobbins winning away. And so those are two really high-upside type of rookie running backs that I like. And then obviously I like the Tett McMillan one. And then this one, he's not a sleeper, like a Monra and Pooker were, you know, their rookie years. But like the guy that stands out to me is Abuka. Yeah. Like he, he's up there. He's getting steamed up in drafts. But like he's the guy.

also that I think could like be really good this year. And where he's going, even though it is kind of, it looks kind of pricey, I think he could even outdo that price pretty easily. Yeah, it's funny. Buka's one where I ranked him 66th in my top 100, thinking that anybody who's reading this that has like a Yahoo, a sleeper and ESPN draft, and it was following my rankings would get him.

That you take him a little bit ahead, you get him a little head ahead of ADP, but the way that this like train is moving with Igbuka, that might be where he's going by the end of the month in every single league. Like you're already seeing it where people are reaching for him in FFPC, NFFC, and then underdog, just forget about it. Like underdog in best ball, Egbuka's been steamed up so high,

but I think it's worth it. And a lot of times people don't factor in when you get these young players who take over a wide receiver room, it's just so rapid. And one player, I got to get you to share your opinion on, because I know you've been very expressive about him on podcast and also on X. Ricky Purcell, this is a player that I think also could have a big breakout this year. You've been sort of pounding the table that this is the wide receiver you need in San Francisco.

It's very clear to you. Make the bull case for a big year out of Purcell. Yeah, just that, you know, the talent profile for him, I think he's the best receiver. they have. Iyuk's going to miss, you know, it's now been kind of, you know, set in stone with Shanahan that, you know, week six is what we're looking at with Iyuk. So, so obviously he's, his progression from, you know, his injury has been really slow. Joanne Jennings doesn't move the needle for me. Like, I don't like his ADP at all. To me, he's just kind of just a guy. And he kind of fits that mold of like journeyman receiver like in his like fifth year breakout. I just don't

believe in that. He was a waiver wire guy that helped a lot of teams last year and he was a big part of their success. And now people are trying to draft him that high. And I just I just think that Purcell is the guy that like you want in that offense. He's the guy that you're going to be able to take like shots downfield with him, pretty explosive. And, you know, outside of kiddle and CMC, like, they just don't have, you know, anybody else. So, like, I think he's going to get the targets this year. Like, I could see that breakout coming. Yeah, and also he's got that extreme athletic ability.

So if you want to emulate some of the Debo stuff around the line of scrimmage, Purcell can do that as well. And it sounds like Brandon Ayuk, week six is what Kyle Shanahan saying. So, like, I don't, Iuke, who knows? And that's always been a guy that's sort of, depending on the way the wind is blowing, might not be getting along with Shanahan. I think Ricky Purcell has a chance to get off to a really fast start. DeMarcus Robinson might miss time with an injury.

You've got, like, all these guys just banged up and Purcell healthy. All the reports are strong. Nelson, this one was awesome. Yeah, I was just going to say, I'll tell you one guy that could be, sneaky later in the season. He's more of like a waiver wire guy. Is Jordan Watkins. He flashed me and I could see like later in the season where we're talking about picking up Jordan Watkins. He suffered a high ankle sprain so he's going to be out a while. So, you know, we got to wait on that. But he's a guy definitely that flash for me that I could see

being something before the season ends. Yeah, that was one where I remember during the draft process where Brett Whitefield was not a Trey Harris guy. Brett's our resident ball no one of his points like evaluates all these guys does the draft guide. And Brett was never high on Trey Harris. Like I was higher on Trey Harris than he was. And pretty much everybody was higher on Trey Harris than he was. He adjusted a little bit after the landing spot to L.A. But what was interesting was he said Jordan Watkins and Trey Harris were very similar prospects for him, didn't see a whole lot of difference as prospects. and then you get these reports out of San Francisco that Watkins was it's just been tearing it up, you know, has this pathway to being like the number three wide receiver there.

So you big shout out to Brett. He's constantly getting things right. And big shout out to Nelson for your time and your takes. Let me know once again where they can find your work. FDN fantasy. I've got the high stakes package, which gives you access to my rankings, my cheat sheet, fade list, a bunch of articles that I wrote. on my breakout running backs and also my targets per round. So it lists the guys that I'm targeting.

I'm the type of drafter where I have more of a condensed draft sheet with guys. I eliminate guys off of my board. So I've got that available. And then the Discord channel, which gives you access to me 24-7 to ask any questions during the draft season and in-season. Yeah, check out all in-el. He's work. Check out his podcast. Check out Fantasy Empire. Check out School of Scott. Scott and I've been putting out a bunch of great episodes every single week. Dynasty Life, My Dynasty Show. Mike Leone was on the most recent fantasy football daily before, of course, Nelson today. Check that one out. That was a really, really good one. We talked about some sleepers and sort of the way to navigate rounds nine on in your drafts. Going to be dropping multiple episodes a week. Make sure you subscribe to Fantasy Points YouTube channel. And if you want to subscribe to Fantasy Points, use the code. Theo 2025 will help you win your lose.