Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Football 2025: New NFL Playcallers & Their Impact on Players, Offenses, and Draft Strategy w/ Ryan Heath

Episode Date: August 18, 2025

Use code SCOREMORE10 at checkout for 10% OFF any subscription. Dominate your league. Win more bets. Level up your game Coaching changes can make or break your fantasy season — and 2025 brings a wave of new NFL playcallers set to reshape offenses across the league. On today’s Fantasy Football Daily, we break down how schemes that emphasize play action, motion, tempo, and 12-personnel can dramatically boost efficiency and unlock hidden fantasy value. From Sean Payton’s RB-heavy passing game in Denver to Kellen Moore’s uptempo offense in New Orleans, and from Liam Coen’s potential breakout system in Jacksonville to Chip Kelly’s run-centric approach with the Raiders, we highlight which players and teams could rise or fall under new leadership. Find out why J.J. McCarthy, R.J. Harvey, TreVeyon Henderson, Chris Olave, Breece Hall, Jameson Williams, and Brian Thomas Jr. may all see their fantasy stock shift in 2025 — and how to adjust your draft strategy accordingly. Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/⁠⁠RyanJ_Heath ⁠ Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Podcast Transcription Here: https://podsqueeze.com/embedded/transcript/gM6XFBxdRSpJkR6uHmwZyU Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #FantasyFootball #2025Rankings #DaveKluge #RB1 #WR1 #QB1 #TE1 #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When planning for life's most important moments, sometimes the hardest part is simply knowing where to start. That's why we're here to help. When you pre-plan and prepay a celebration of life with us, every detail will be handled with simplicity and professionalism, giving you the peace of mind that you've done all you can today to remove any burden from your loved ones tomorrow. We are your local Dignity Memorial provider. Find us at DignityMemorial.ca. The Dignity Memorial brand name is used to identify a network of licensed funeral cremation and cemetery providers owned and operated by affiliates of Service Corporation International. What impact will new play callers have on fantasy football in 2025? Theo Greminger, Fantasy Football Daily on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network, joined today by a frequent guest of mine, Ryan Heath, also of Fantasy Points. Ryan drops this amazing article.

It is free up on FantasyPoint.com right now. 2025 Fantasy Football Impact, new coaches. It's really, really a strong read. It has a ton of takeaways not only on. the new offensive coordinators, but also a lot of returning offensive coordinators, some of the hot button players in fantasy football. It definitely should be on your reading list if you haven't read it already. But let's just start off at the top, Ryan, no time to waste.

Could Ashton Genty end up being one of the best values in fantasy football drafts? And it's funny, you're talking about a rookie. Usually we're chasing things like upside. But with Gentie, he's going to have so much volume. And he's going in such a range of ADP now around the one to turn. And oftentimes later, you're seeing people in one-off drafts getting him at pick 17, pick 18. It seems like he could be in store for a really, really high volume season. He's got a lot of safety with his selection, but also that potential upside because he's very good at football.

And in your article, you talked about the impact with Pete Carroll and ship. Kelly could have on Gentie this year. Yeah, I agree Gentie is extremely safe, first and foremost, just from a workload perspective. We have seen pretty much every single one of Chip Kelly's RB-1s get very, very good workloads. I mean, most famously, LaShawn McCoy had his two best and two highest volume seasons under Kelly looking at his record in college. I mean, he's getting over 100 yards from scrimmage per game out of like some

absolutely disgusting names at UCLA in Oregon. Michael James, Kenyon Barner, guys like this that are just getting this Uber highest end Belkow usage. So, yeah, I do think Gentie is in line for that. He's my 13th overall player right now. I'm pretty happy to scoop him up in any managed league whenever he's falling past that one two turn, which has been somewhat frequent, I have noticed. I think people are a little just scared off by him just being a rookie or by the offense.

But, yeah, to me, at the end of the first, all of that's very much priced. in. And if the Raiders surprise to the upside in any way in terms of their offense, then, yeah, you've got quite a lot of upside for Gentie as well. Yeah, it's so interesting that when we did shows together around Dynasty rookie draft season, Ryan, and right around the NFL draft, we talked about Gentie as such a generational type prospect. And we would bring up players like Sequin Barclay. We would make comparisons to Zeke Elliott's rookie season. And now when it push comes to shove and we're in the big money, making month of August in fantasy football, you're getting Ashton Genti where you got

Najee Harris in fantasy draft. So it's really just kind of a weird outcome. I think there was a lot of people that were way too reactionary to a very small sample size in a single preseason game. We see it often, but it's weird. It's sort of like the gentie lack of enthusiasm now and some of the trepidation is also because some of the players around him are appealing in ADP, but also I think people too reactionary. You talk a little bit about Kelly. You talk a little bit about Carol. Specifically with Chip Kelly, it's pace of play.

Years ago, he had this super fast-paced, sort of no huddle. It's come kind of back down to earth. Ohio State was certainly not a slow offense, but not one of the fastest in college football by any means. And really a effective offense at Ohio State, but it looked very different than Chip Kelly's years at Oregon. Chip Kelly's years early on in Philly. Where do you think this goes tempo-wise, the pace of play?

Is it an offense that you think is going to run a lot of plays this year? It's probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes, right? So, yeah, obviously kind of in his early NFL days and through a lot of his college years, Kelly was way down at between like 22 to 24 seconds per play, which would rank like top three in the NFL in any given year. last year he was up at 29 seconds with Ohio State but I mean obviously not that many super competitive games like they're crushing teams a lot they don't have to run that fast it's Ohio State right so it is fairly ambiguous but I would lean more toward kind of the

the upper end of that in terms of I think they'll probably be about average to slightly faster is where I'm guessing that's about where we're projecting it in the fantasy points projections. So yeah, I don't think the fears of, oh, they're going to be ultra slow-paced are entirely founded. But I think it'll be enough to where there could be a lot of plays on this offense, especially if they end up having to chase teams on the scoreboard. Yeah, I'm hoping it's a very consolidated offense. You bring up chasing teams on the scoreboard. No one would say that this is a defense that's going to be dominant by any means. And I think that it's a chance that with the division, the games also tend to flow in that direction where Denver's got a very strong offense this year.

You certainly have Kansas City. And then we think that the Chargers offense could be a lot better with some of the investments they've made on skill position players. And also Greg Roman being in year two of that offense. We can talk about Bowers, but I'm just curious kind of off the cuff. What's your vibes with Jacobi Myers at this point in the year? it seems like he's sort of a litmus test. He's a wide range of outcomes player people rank where some people are really enthusiastic. He had a strong season last year, had probably his best statistical season as a pro.

There's a lack of wide receiver target competition there. There's a couple of rookies plus Trey Tucker. And then, of course, Brock Bowers is going to lead the team in targets once again. But is Myers production from last season something you think we'll see again in Kelly? And again, this is more vibes-based, not necessarily something you covered in the article too much. Yeah, I mean, I think we could, but to me, the upside is not like that special, right? Like, Myers is very much like a best ball type of pick to me where, yeah, he could beat his ADP and he could finish as the wide receiver 24. But I don't see him like really shooting up the board more than that, if that makes sense.

And yeah, the run heavy nature of Chip Kelly, of Pete Carroll, at least in their hearts and what they'd like to be, doesn't really help with that either. If the Raiders aren't constantly chasing teams, that also hurts Myers. Him and Brock Bowers were number one and number two in terms of fantasy points scored in garbage time last year, or just while trailing in the fourth quarter. So this is stuff you have to think about, in my opinion, for this Raiders passing game. which is why I'm not quite as bullish on a Bowers on a Myers as I am on a Gentie. One offense that could look very different, despite sort of a just promotion from within with the head coach, Brian Schottenheimer takes over in Dallas as the head coach, also is going to run the offense.

You had seemed to have a pretty bullish take on him where this could be a very good thing, not only for CD Lamb, who's steamed up in ADP in every single format, people are very bullish of CD, at least challenging, for his second wide receiver one overall finish. But you seem to have a bullish take on Dak Prescott and also potentially George Pickens thriving in this offense. Yeah, so the first and most important thing is that Schottenheimer was the OC in Seattle when they were letting Russ Cook, right,

toward the end of his time there. and he was the third OC that Pete Carroll ended up firing suspiciously just as soon as he started bringing the team's pass rate up. So to me, I think Schottenheimer would like to be pass heavy, especially with this personnel that the Cowboys have, which is absolutely nothing in the backfield. So that's great for Dak, obviously. Whenever the Cowboys have been a top five pass rate over expectation team, he's averaged well over 20 fantasy points per game at a high end QB1. so that's great. But the, yeah, more interesting thing is with George Pickens because Schopenheimer's been on record saying he wants to institute more motion,

more shift into the offense. And that's like just a general efficiency cheat code plays with motion and shift. But for George Pickens, he has actually averaged a 37% better yards per out run on plays with motion and shift over the past two seasons. The Steelers did not use that much of it last. year. The Cowboys also were slightly below average. If they get anywhere up into that top 10 in motion shift, then we could see a really special year from George Pickens. It's just a really exciting bet to me where it's a player who's all of his per route data was the best it's ever been last year. Now he is going on to an offense where he could run 100, 200 more routes than he ever has in his career. And we're not really drafting him that much higher than we were for most of his career in Pittsburgh, which is odd to me. So, yeah, very in on Pickens this year. Yeah, I mean, I think when you go back with Schottenheimer

and you look at his years in Seattle, you bring up Russ cooking. But for me, sort of the takeaways were that was one of the highest targeted seasons, best seasons for D.K. Metcalf that we saw as well. And he did it with Tyler Lockett. You go back to that 2020 season, those two players combined for over 160, excuse me, they combined for over 260 targets combined.

and they had 20 touchdown catches alongside one another. So you get sort of like for me, I get really excited about the potential for a very consolidated wide receiver target tree with C.D. Lamb getting the majority of them, you know, let's not kid ourselves. George Pickens is, if George Pickens gets 120 targets this year, I think that's a reasonable bet, but a very efficient 120 targets. And I think there could be a situation where both of these. players end up being top 15 producers at the position. So that gets us really, really excited.

And DAC remains a really interesting value. I think DAC is priced right now in multiple formats where you can have a two QB build, go out and get yourself a Justin Fields, a Drake May, a Caleb Williams, and combine them with the safety of DAC. I think it's a really viable strategy right now because it seems like his floor is going to be pretty solid in this offense. Yeah, completely agreed. Yeah, he's especially in Superflex. I love DAC as a value in any of those formats. But, yeah, even in one QB, he can work as like a way to just increase the floor

and the ceiling of your overall QB room if you're waiting longer at the position. Yeah, we have one of the most fun and most tilting opening games in quite some time for fantasy football with Philadelphia Square. Actually last year, what am I saying? Baltimore, Kansas City, we were pretty hyped for that one. We get hype for every opener. But we are absolutely going to be hyped for Philadelphia and Dallas squaring off in the NFL opener. Only a few weeks away. We're going to talk about it.

Philadelphia has a new offensive coordinator. Are there going to be any changes in Philly? We'll discuss it right after this. This Giving Tuesday, Cam H is counting on your support. Together, we can forge a better path for mental health by creating a future where Canadians can get the health they need when they need it, no matter who or where. they are. From November 25th to December 2nd, your donation will be doubled. That means every dollar goes twice as far to help build a future where no one's seeking help is left behind. Donate today at camh.ca.ca.combeck. Welcome back Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Greminger with Ryan Heath.

This seems like it's a really short kind of throwaway conversation here. Is there anything potentially that you think we could see with Kevin Petullo taking over as a lot? As a lot of the OC in Philly this year. It seems like if I was taking over, I would try to do things exactly the same. I do think that there's a chance that the offense looks different just because of variance. Philadelphia might not lead in every single game. Wild statistic, Ryan, where it was Rich Rebar came on School of Scott with Scott and I, and I'm sure you know the statistics, as you know all the statistics.

But the AJ Brown's second half targets, I like nearly spit out my coffee, 32 targets in the entire season in the second half of games for AJ Brown. That's disgusting to hear as an AJ Brown manager. Do you think anything could look different for Philly as long as everybody's healthy? So there's two things to think about here. One is actually not something I mentioned in the article. But yeah, I don't think the plan for this offense is going to be any different under Petulow than it was under Kellyn Moore last year, right?

But something to keep an eye on is maybe put the same. Tullo is just not as talented of an actual play caller or a sequencer as Kellen Moore is, right? There's like some downside potential here just in terms of offensive efficiency. I mean, we saw this with Brian Johnson back in 2023 where, yeah, they ran largely the same system, but he just, the guy wasn't as good at calling the plays, right? There's a small chance that's the case with Betulow, not that worried about it, but something in the back of your mind. Probably the only other bigger thing is we do know that Petulow. is much more open to playing more up-tempo if required, right?

So kind of to your point, Theo, if the Eagles ever do find themselves falling behind in the second half for whatever reason, they do have a much tougher schedule this year. Their opponents ranked top six by Vegas implied win total, where they had one of the easiest real-life schedules last year. So if that increased toughness of their schedule leads to them being behind in games, I do think that Petula will go more up-tempo in the second half, run more plays, throw the ball more if that's what's necessary, which we would be hoping for A.J. Brown. But, yeah, those are really my only takeaways out of Philadelphia because, yeah,

they're just kind of stonewall in us in terms of, yeah, you know, it's going to be the same offense is pretty much what they've said. Yeah, I think there's really, really nothing different there. It's an easy offense to predict. We know what they're going to do around the goal line. We know what they're going to do in neutral game strips. We know how consolidated the offense is. And we actually have a sample size over the years that if one of the three main receivers goes down with an injury,

it's usually a net benefit to the other two, which sounds like it should be the case for every team, Ryan. But that's not always the case across fantasy football. I think that's a sort of misunderstood concept that things don't always consolidate. sometimes teams have more reliance on the next man and things stay static. With Philly, if A.J. Brown missed his time, Dallas Goddard, Devontas Smith, both see a benefit and the whole wheel goes the same way over. So Philly's pretty easy to predict. Another promoted offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard, interesting one,

because this has been a, this has been the cradle of new head coaches. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator position. in consecutive seasons. I mean, Baker Mayfield is a head coach maker. Who would have thought years ago? Dave Canales gets his first head coaching job in Carolina. Then last year, Liam Cohen takes over in Tampa Bay, takes them to another level, 29 points per game as a team.

Baker Mayfield, a career year. Bucky Irving breaks out. Multiple wide receivers at multiple times of the year. We're in our fantasy lineup. I mean, they were even Kate Otten had weeks. So they were absolutely cooking as a team. Now Grizzard takes over. Is there anything else that we should look for with Grizzard taking over?

And I'll add that the team will look a little different. Bucky's established, as last year it was a little more Rashad White. We have a Mecca Egbuka drafted inside of the first round. Godwin probably starts the year on Pup. I'm very pessimistic about his early season production. Jalen McMillan is in year two. Mike Evans is fully healthy. Do you think that this offense is going for what we saw last year?

Could there be any wrinkles here with Grizzard? Yeah, there's two things I would say we should really watch out for. The first is how Grizzard uses his receivers and his running backs in the screen game. Because that was one of the best defining features of Liam Cohen's offense last year was he had three different guys that were ranking top 12 in screen targets per game at different points in the season, whether it was Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, or Rashad White. And that mattered a lot for the production of all three of those players is that he was very intentional in designing targets for them around the line of scrimmage. So yeah, really, week one, week two, I'm going to be looking to see what the Buccaneers are doing in their screen game, who's getting them if they're even running

them. Because that brings us to the second thing about Grizzard, which is we have him on record saying that he would really like the passing game to be more vertical this year. And I don't know. I just get weird vibes because hearing that comment and looking at this personnel and this team, I see Mike Evans can definitely get verticaled, like no questions asked there. But after that, it's like, what are we doing here exactly? I mean, you're one of your most dynamic players is Bucky Irving. I don't think we're sending him down the field like on go routes or anything like that.

Ameca Igbuka is an amazing player that has been getting rave reviews out of camp, but also that this is a Scott Barrett stat. He was one of the least productive receivers to come out of college over the last 10 years in terms of targets that are 15 or more yards downfield. He didn't really have that element to his game in college. So, yeah, we're kind of getting mixed signals, I would say, here with this offense, which is never great. It just makes me worry a little bit about what it's going to.

going to look like. I'm still in on Egbuka just because he's so cheap. He is kind of the anti-fragile buccaneer where even if this offense takes an efficiency step back, he can just benefit from the receivers around him going down from a late season surge as a rookie or what have you. But yeah, everyone else I'm giving like a long thought to can I, do I think they can sustain these ADPs that have been pushed up by Baker Mayfield having a top three passing touchdown rate last year. Yeah, I would bet against that continuing. For me, the most interesting thing will be, is there somebody who really, really dominates the slot at the wide receiver position? Godwin last year was like 64% slot rate.

The year before, he was like a 38% slot rate. I think that's very, very interesting. And you bring up Egbuka, and I think Scott is on point with, almost every take, but this one, I kind of disagree with him on because I don't think Ohio State really asked Egbuka. I think this was a reflection of Ohio State just an embarrassment of riches, and they're able to sort of put guys where they want them to be. So I think Igbuka is going to show more versatility than he necessarily had at Ohio State where he was playing that slot role. And I think a lot of the quotes from these buck players sort of lend themselves to that argument where Baker Mayfields

talked about him being able to play every single position on the offense, lining him up wherever he wants. There's multiple coaches have sort of praised him for not only his route running, his hands, but also his versatility. And they keep stressing versatility, which I don't think you say that if the guy is just going to win in sort of a lower a dot role. And also your advice on Egbuka being cheap, depends on when you listen to this podcast, Ryan. Because if you're drafting after Labor Day, Egbuka might be a lock,

fifth round pick. The steam, he goes, if Mecca, Buka was a stock and you invested on him in, you know, in April and May, you'd be a millionaire by now. That's how high he's steaming up some of these draft boards. So really, really fun with Josh Grizzard. Let's get back to, we talk about Dallas. Let's talk about Kellan Moore, who leaves the Dallas Cowboys, takes the New Orleans Saints job. I think this is one where if there was, I mean, dare I even say it, even if Derek Carr had not retired, I think there'd be a little bit more enthusiasm about this offense than a lot of people writing about Kellyn Moore's impact. It's sort of being pushed aside because everyone is assuming this is going to be one of the worst offenses in football.

And to people's credit, it might be the worst quarterback situation in football with Tyler Shuck and Spencer Rattler, the probable quarterbacks for the season. But, Kellyn Moore has this sample size of not only being a like a productive offensive coordinator in terms of team points per game, team yardage per game, but a really fantasy friendly one, fast-paced offenses, and what you wrote about was a heavy use of motion and shift schemes. Yeah, Moore has kind of been ahead of the NFL curve in adopting motion and shift really in his entire career as a play caller. he's used it on over 50% of his dropbacks in each of the last two seasons with different

quarterbacks, different offenses. That's pretty interesting, really for both of these Saints receivers, because we kind of saw Olavé and Chehid be relatively productive in the more motion heavy Clint Kubiak offense in a smaller sample last year. But if we get a full sample of these guys being used very creatively, it could be really cool. I mean, Chris Olavé, over his entire career on place containing motion or shift, he averages over 2.7 yards per outrun. Like, that is like top eight wide receiver numbers right there. Rashid Chihit also much better over his career on motion and shift.

So, yeah, it's kind of interesting, right? That's all you can really say until we see anything from either of these quarterbacks. But, yeah, the creative offense, the creative scheme, and also just, knowing that Kellyn Moore is always going to be relatively up-tempo and run a lot of plays. He has ranked top nine in plays per game in every season as a play caller in his play-calling career. So even if the team is bad, they're probably going to run very fast, run a lot of plays. So it's interesting. It's hard for me to, like, throw myself out there in terms of Chris Oliva or Rashid Shaheed to the moon.

I think both of them are very good best ball picks. but that's about all I can say for them. But it's something to watch for sure. Yeah, it's interesting because Chris Olbe is going off the board as the wide receiver 35 on underdog. He's usually close to there in FFC, close to there in NFFC. And then Rashid Shahid goes off the board as the wide receiver 53. I think they'll both beat their ADPs. I think that that's a given, but it's a do they beat them by a really meaningful stretch,

where a lot of people get caught up and they'd say, you know, Chris Alave, I draft him as the wide receiver 35. He was the wide receiver 26. Therefore, that's just a great pick. He beat his ADP by 10 positional spots. But then you factor in things like opportunity cost, all of the wide receivers going around him like Debo Samuel, Egbuk, Ricky Purcell, Roma, Dunzee. And it's not only did he beat his ADP, but did the other guys around him not beat their ADP by like, 15, 20 spots. So it's always interesting. I do think Alave, the pedigree, the amount of money they're paying him, the coach speak. We've had to pay a premium for Alave year in, year out. I get he's a very frustrating player, but at wide receiver 35, I think you want at least some exposure. Shaheed, interesting. Shaheed might have been a better fit just in terms of the sheer big

playability in what we saw under the Kubiak offense, which we'll talk about. about Kubiak in Seattle soon. But one guy that I know that really has nobody talking about him, and it's interesting, it's Alvin Kamara. Like, where are you out on Kamara in this offense? Like, the past catching ability is so important for him at this age. But he was very efficient last year running the football, you know, compared to many scenes of his career.

Where are you out on your enthusiasm level for an aging back in what could be a bottom 10 offense, but with a coordinator that you respect. Yeah, I think it's bad for Camara, honestly. And not because I think Kellan Moore is like bad for running games or anything. That's definitely not true. We just saw what he did with Saquan Barkley. But specifically for Camara and his strengths, I don't think more is like a great match for what he usually brings in terms of promoting fantasy production. Right.

So with Kubiak last year, we saw the Saints run a ton of outsize. zone. Over the previous three seasons, Elvin Camara averaged below 3.9 yards per carry. Last year on outside zone, over four and a half yards per carry. That is like the magic of the Clint Kubiak running scheme. And even more importantly than just efficiency on the ground is the screen game, right? Kubiak has always just fed his running back screens. Camara had over half of all the saint screen targets last year. It accounted for over three fantasy points per game for him alone just on screens. We haven't really seen that from Kellyn Moore before in terms of doing that for running

backs. Usually he likes to spread the screens out more to his wide receivers, some to his running backs. He's very unlikely to just throw them all to Camara like Kubiak was doing. Yeah. So for that reason, I think it just kind of lowers Cameras ceiling a lot in terms of I'd don't think there's a world really where he trots out there and he's averaging 18 expected fantasy points per game like he was for a lot of last year. But he can definitely be like a mid to high range RB2 off of volume.

Yeah, you nailed it with the off of volume comment. I just think like when there's when you're looking at Kamara in the range that he goes, it almost feels weird saying this, but I think there's a lot of running backs around him that I think the ceiling case is is better for. I think James Connor, the proficiency Arizona has. Arizona as an offense, I think it'll be much better. I just feel more safe with Connor, which seems like almost sacrilege to say that, you know, a few years ago I would have got laughed off the show for saying that.

And then, you know, guys like RJ Harvey, Chuba Hubbard, Travian Henderson, Kenneth Walker. So it's he's really, Kamara's the interesting one. The past catching is going to be so important for him. Like you said, that's not necessarily something that we've seen from Kellynne Moore. I think you want to gravitate towards the value wide receivers instead of having to use still somewhat of a premium pick on Kamara just based on Ryan's lack of an upside case for him. Let's take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to talk about the New York Jets. A lot of changes in New York, a lot of excitement there with Tanner Engstrand taking over right after this.

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Celebrate the season with Hulu, available on Disney Plus in Canada. Welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Gremage with Ryan Heath. You can read all of Ryan's articles, all of my articles, all of our rankings, the dynasty rankings, all of Scott Barrett's articles, and even Fantasy Points Data Data Suite, sign up now, take your game to another level with fantasy points. You can use the code Theo 2025, get yourself something off and win your fantasy league this season. Ryan, a team that wants to win the New York Jets. New York Jets,

higher Aaron Glenn, there's a lot of good vibes there. Glenn has the family. support former New York Jet. People are showing up to training camp, preseason games, wearing their head coach's jersey. Kind of a very cool flex for him. And coming over from Detroit, Glenn won a ton of games there as a defensive coordinator, really respected throughout the NFL.

And I thought that this was one of the more interesting hires this offseason. A first-time head coach in Aaron Glenn gets the opportunity in New York. And instead of bringing in a sort of recycled, retread offensive coordinator that's maybe been in OC in the NFL for five plus years. You could find those guys. They're pretty much a dime a dozen. Instead of that, he brings Tanner Engstrand over with him from Detroit. Ben Johnson coaching tree, Dan Campbell coaching tree.

And Engstrand's an interesting one. People are pretty bullish about this one. The offense is obviously going to look different with Justin Fields behind center than and Jared Gough behind center. But what's your vibes on Angstrand? I think there's still a shroud of mystery here with just how this offense will run. But I'm hopeful that we get aggressive, the aggressive nature of Ben Johnson will carry over. Yeah, very wide range of outcomes here.

I mean, Engstrand himself says that like his two biggest influences offensively are Ben Johnson and Jim Harbaugh, which with those two names, you should be like, okay, cool, he's going to run a ton of play action is what it sounds like. And I think that's probably true. But yeah, in terms of how it actually works out is still to be seen in terms of will it work, right? Because, yeah, he has no NFL history whatsoever. The last time he was a play caller was in spring football in 2020 with the DC defenders. They did not have a particularly good offense that year either.

So, yeah, really, really unknown, I would say, I guess, to put it kind of lightly or to put it kind of kindly. But a couple interesting notes here. We did get Braylin Allen kind of letting it slip in a presser that their run game is going to be based around outside zone, right? And that's actually a negative for Brise Hall, at least in terms of his career splits, which our Hall leads all running backs on man Gap. over the last three years in terms of yards per carry. But he is very, very far down the list in terms of yards for carry on zone concept runs. So that's a little bit of a worry, but is also maybe speaking to the idea that, yeah, Braylon Allen and Isaiah Davis are actually going to be very involved in this offense.

It's been really obnoxious and difficult to read the tea leaves. I've been tearing my hair out this entire offseason trying to figure out the Jets backfield. I do still think that Hall has a lot of upside as a receiver. Engstrand himself has been on record saying that Hall is going to do absolutely everything. He's going to catch the ball out of the backfield a ton. I do think Hall could essentially function as this team's wide receiver too. I think that's kind of what they would like for him. But yeah, I'm still unsure whether it's going to work is the best I can say.

Hall is a guy I'm interested in whenever he is falling kind of into like the fourth and fifth round, like past the Ken Walker's, past all of the elite QBs and tight ends and kind of that tier of guys. Like after all of my like first handful of targets from the first handful of rounds, if Hall is still around because he fell, I'm interested, but he's not someone I am like feeling, feeling very safe spending a premium pick on is how I would put it. Yeah, Jets are interesting. I really like drafting Braylin Allen at cost, but he's another one where if you're listening to

Ryan and I, sort of in the first half of August, you'll say, yeah, Allen's a pretty good, pretty good value. But if you listen to it on Labor Day weekend, Braylon Allen might have steamed up another two rounds. He's, he is really steaming up and sort of in that David Montgomery role, a lot of positive vibes there. I think that the lack of playmakers in New York kind of lends itself to two backs, getting a lot of weekly predictable touches. I agree with you. like I think if the two of us were coaching the team, Brees Hall would see a career high in Target Share and he would get the ball often. The problem is we're not.

And you have a lot of factors in New York where maybe they want to use a full committee. I think I'd be shocked if Braylon Allen is not getting 10 touches a game. Then you factor in Isaiah Davis pretty good at football. And now we throw in the real like out of nowhere, Donovan Edwards has been a player sort of standing out in training camp, had a very strong preseason game. So I don't know. Like for me, Bruce Hall, it reaches a certain point. He's never averaged fewer than 15 points per game. You need to get some exposure, click the button, especially if you're a volume drafter. If I was drafting in a single league this year, I'm not sure I'm doing that. If it was

my fourth round pick was leaning on Bruce Hall getting the, you know, rational coaching touches and the rational coaching targets that we would like to see, I don't know. if I'm doing that, but I'm, of course, like yourself, I got a lot of, a lot of tickets. I'm going to have a couple of Breece Hall ones. One interesting thing about Bruce Hall from a dynasty lens is he has been surpassed quite easily by another back in the division. And we're not talking about Devon A-chan. We're not talking about James Cook. We're talking about Trayvion Henderson, who is a rocket ship to the moon in Dynasty, a rocket ship to the moon in redraft and in best ball. There is a chance with two weeks from today, Henderson,

is going ahead of Bruce Hall in ADP in places like underdog FFPC. Trayvion Henderson looks explosive, looks like he's ready to make a fantasy impact this year, and he's on an interesting offense run by Josh McDaniels, who's been around the block, but returns to his safe place in New England. How do you think this offense is going to look not only for Henderson, but also for year two quarterback Drake May in this Josh McDaniels offense under? new head coach Mike Vrable. Yeah, we can start with Henderson.

I mean, I think they're going to throw the ball to running backs a lot and specifically to Henderson a lot, if the first preseason game is anything to go by. But yeah, just looking at Josh McDaniel's history, I mean, he has been well over 100 targets to running backs in every single year going back to 2015, just under 100 in 2023. But, yeah, I mean, that that is ranking near the top of the league every single year. So that is a fairly consistent tendency. So, yeah, I do expect Henderson to be very heavily targeted. With him, it's really going to come down to does he eventually supplant Remandre

Stevenson in the goal line situations is what's going to be really, really big. I think it's possible. I don't think Romandre Stevenson is actually that good of a goal lineback. I don't know that the Patriots think he is either. The last time Josh McDaniels coached Remandre Stevenson, he never let him anywhere near the goal line. He was in a three-way committee with Damian Harris and Brandon Bolden it was that year. So yeah, to me, to me, it's kind of like, I don't know that they're actually that crazy about Ramandre. I would not be at all surprised if Henderson is one of the top five most efficient backs in the league this year and also getting fringe RB1 usage by the end of it, too.

As for May, I think this is the most clearly exciting bit here, which is that we have seen Josh McDaniels use a lot of designed runs with his quarterback before. It was with Cam Newton in 2020, a 31-year-old Cam Newton, but they ran an offense where Cam averaged a career high, 9.8 rush attempts per game. We saw May be a very effective scrambler last year, behind only Jaden Daniels and scramble yards per game. If they just add in any of the designed running whatsoever, then it is Drake May to the moon.

He will be an easy top six quarterback with that level of design rushing. So, yeah, May is a huge, huge flag plant for me, huge flag plant for basically everybody at fantasy points this offseason. And, yeah, McDaniel's history only really adds to that for me. Yeah, I think, like the writings on the wall for Drake May, I think the rushing upside for him, not sure where you think he ends up, but I think we're talking about 700 plus rushing yards. I think that's sort of the wheelhouse with potential for slightly higher than that,

which is really, really exciting for a player like him. And it really bakes in his fantasy floor. Henderson, I mean, like, I get it. There's some smart people on Ramandre Stevenson, but I don't think it's going to go well for those smart people. I think like the other thing about Stevenson, he fumbles the ball a lot, Ryan. And that was okay last year when there was a lack of competition for him. Trayvion Henderson, if he coughs one up early, then the rushing projections for Trayvon

Henderson are going to be a lot higher than anticipated. And he's sort of the prototypical back for this modern NFL, high value touch, big playability. I mean, it's sort of like a Bucky Irving on Sterile. situation much more. It's like imagine Bucky Irving if he was super, super, super, super fast and had that same efficiency as last year. That's like what we're looking at. And then I think the dream scenario for you Patriots fans and certainly for dynasty

managers is the name we can't even whisper because it's too aspirational, but it's Jemir Gibbs. It's that sort of talent, which we're not going to put that on them. But I do think at this time next year, Travion Henderson is going to be looked at as a second round pick, a locked in second round pick heading into 2026 drafts. And for Dynasty, he might be a top five running back in Dynasty Fantasy football heading into 2026 as well. Really, really, really a fun player. We talked about New England. Let's segue over to Detroit. And let's talk about John Morton, who takes over. He has familiarity with Dan Campbell. He's been on Campbell's coaching staff. Campbell sort of specifically picked John Morton as the Ben Johnson successor.

This has obviously been an offense that has printed fantasy points over the last few years. Incredible productivity at multiple positions. I mean, Johnson was a legend. Every single year we had two running backs giving you running back two or better production. Amon-Ross St. Brown has had multiple smash seasons. Last year, Jameson, 14 points per game. Sam Leporta, the tight-in one overall. I mean, two seasons ago, it goes on and on and on.

So what do you think we could see differently from John Morton, who, by the way, ran a 4-3940 at the NFL Combine, Ryan, and probably the coolest stat of the offseason. John Morton can fly or he could fly. I did not know that. That's awesome. It's the coolest thing ever. He had the fastest 40 at the combine.

John Morton did. I mean, you got the absolute unit, the most jacked head, coach in the league. Dan Campbell looks like he can still play in the NFL today. And then you've got the fastest offensive coordinator in NFL history. There's no one has ever led the combine in 40 and then been an offensive coordinator in the league. So shout out to John Morton. That's amazing. Yeah. I'm going to have to dive into his combine stats after this. But yeah, what I am looking at with the Lions this year is, look, they were just the best

offense in terms of points for game since the 2018 chiefs of him. any team in the NFL over the last seven years, right? So I don't think that's repeating. I think they're very likely to still be a top five offense. And that's not even because of any particular confidence in John Morton, but it's because Dan Campbell is really the one that sets the tone here. And in a worst case scenario, I think he would just step in and call the plays himself if he really needed to.

Because that's exactly what we saw from Dan Campbell back in 2021, right? over the first eight weeks of the season, Anthony Lynn was the Lions play caller. And very interestingly, he called the 31st rate of play action over that period, right? Not much play action at all. Dan Campbell stepped in from week nine on in that season. They were top 10 in play action the rest of the way. They've been a top 12 play action team ever since, since Ben Johnson took over then. And then they were first in the NFL last year, right?

but I really think that that speaks to Campbell is kind of the author of this offense and this offensive vision more so than Ben Johnson. I think Johnson is an incredibly talented play caller and that that provides an extra boost. But I don't think everything is going to just go terribly without him for that reason, right? So, but still, maybe the most interesting thing here is around James and Williams, right? So, I mean, Williams has been unequivocally like the star of training camp. Every Lion's Beat writer is completely obsessed with him. Morton himself is saying that he wants to isolate him a lot more, give him some different routes. Apparently, he's in the slot some more.

Just saying lots of really positive things about him. My take on this is that I don't think that play callers have as much of a choice, quote unquote, or like a direct influence on which receiver is getting a target on a given play, as maybe people believe, right? And that's not to say that there aren't guys that are on the first read on a play, that they design. Of course, that is the case. Design targets are a thing, all of that.

But just because Jameson Williams is getting such amazing hype and coach speak, doesn't to me mean all of a sudden that he's going to start pushing Amunrah St. Brown in terms of target share, right? And to that point, I mean, we heard almost all of these same things about Jameson Williams last year from Ben Johnson. I trolled a bunch of people on Twitter with that a couple of weeks ago, just posting Ben Johnson quotes as if they were John Morton quotes. So, yeah, to me, Jameson Williams last year was 45th among all wide receivers and target share, 39th and expected fantasy points for game. I think he can take another step forward in volume in what is this year four for him. I think that's possible.

I think he's an efficient player. But I'm not seeing like the, oh, he's going to out target Amonra, St. Brown, or like this offense is suddenly not going to center around St. Brown out of the slot because the slot master Ben Johnson has gone. I don't buy into that part a ton. But yeah, that's kind of what I'm seeing here. Yeah, I mean, the biggest change will be. if John Morton has a big influence on.

And it sounds like it's heading in that direction that Jemir Gibbs in a 60 instead of a 50, 50 with David Montgomery. If it's simply a 6040, a true 6040, a 6238 touch shot like distribution, then it's Jemir Gibbs to the moon. I'll be more optimistic than you will on Jameson Williams. But that's why Fantasy Points is the best. We don't all agree with one another. We have some strong disagreements.

and I think I'm a little bit more open to the Jameson Williams upside arguments that I've been making and a lot of other people have Brett Whitefield, who interesting because, you know, Brett's very, very sharp, but he's not necessarily as ADP driven or his fantasy driven as the two of us. I asked him if you had to guess Jameson Williams targets this year. And you know what he said? He said 120, 125. And Brett, if Brett's right on that one, then efficiency be damned.

We're going to get Jameson Williams 30 more targets than last year with those 10 manufactured rushing plays. That's going to be a pretty fun one for fantasy football. We got to cover a few more offensive coordinators, including Liam Cohen and Ben Johnson after this.

So, Ryan, we saved some of like the most interesting conversation sort of for last year. Let's start out with Clint Kubiak. Kubiak was the smartest man in the universe through two games. last year in the start of the NFL season. New Orleans was putting up astronomical numbers.

I remember podcasting with Scott Barrett on School of Scott and writing about all these articles about how like, oh my gosh, it's happening. Clint Kubiak has remade this. People were spending fab on Derek Carr. Then there started being all sorts of attrition, team coming back to Earth, a very sobering loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

It was very close game, but it was like a 15-12-1. And then New Orleans, of course, fell apart. but Kubiak ends up getting a upgrade in talent around him, goes from New Orleans to Seattle, replaces Ryan Grubb, who last year was one of the more interesting hires. So really Mike McDonald loves making really cool offseason offensive coordinator hires. Kubiak's interesting. We have a sample size, heavy use of the fullback position. and Kubiak did have really revived the upside for Alvin Kamara last year, extremely efficient. What could Kubiak do for players like Kenneth Walker, if he misses time, Zach Charbonnet,

and Jackson Smith and Jigba, who I've been a little bit ahead of consensus on as well in terms of my rankings versus ADP? Yeah, well, start in the backfield. So I kind of mentioned it earlier, but yeah, Kubiak has always. been one to feed a bell cow rb one whether that was alvin camara whether that was dalvin cook in 2021 or whether it was alexander madison in 2021 too for a handful of games so yeah if you just look at expected fantasy points per team play for every running back over the last four seasons there's christian mcalfrey number one and then number two is just clint kubiak's rb one at any given point combined. Only Christian McCaffrey gets a better workload than that guy. So yeah, if that guy is

Ken Walker when he's healthy, that's going to be pretty exciting. I feel like I've given this take a million times this off season, so I'll speed through it. But yeah, Kubiak's outside zone scheme, also incredible for Walker really maximizes the impact of the big plays, which is what Walker has always been amazing on. We also have just quotes of Kubiak saying that he can't wait to throw screens and passes to Ken Walker exactly what we saw with Camara. Yeah, I love throwing screens to his running back. So all that stuff is great. There was a new quote out recently of Ken Walker saying it was way easier to run with a fullback,

which is awesome. That it's like an extra set of eyes for him. It's like his guiding light. I can't remember the exact words he used, but it sounded like, oh, maybe Ken Walker will have better vision this year too, which would be nice for a change. So, yeah, very bullish. Sean Walker obviously would be very bullish on Charbonnet in any games that if that Walker might miss.

He's kind of the one guy that I'm usually like an anti-handcuffing running backs in managed fantasy football leagues type of person. But this situation to me is worth it because almost definitely Zach Charbonnet, if Walker is out, is going to project as an RB1. We know exactly that it is Charbonnet. There's like no ambiguity between who it would be. and Walker, I will admit, is of greater than average injury risk. And he's currently kind of being managed with this weird foot injury,

like practicing and then not practicing every other day. So, yeah, I think I would definitely advocate handcuffing Ken Walker. But Walker is someone I'm very high on. So, yeah, very high on this backfield. Then moving over to the past catchers, what's cool about Kubiak is he runs a lot. of plays with full backs on the field, yes, but also a lot of 12 personnel, right? Multiple tight ends. And what we find is basically the fewer wide receivers you have on the field,

the better off those wide receivers that are still on the field are on a given play, right? Receivers are much more efficient on a per out basis from 12th personnel when they're competing against an extra tight end instead of an extra wide receiver for that target. and that could help out JSN somewhat this year. But what is also kind of intriguing to me is Tori Horton. And I know like I feel a little ridiculous talking about Tori Horton in August and that this is the number three receiver on probably a low volume passing offense. But when you look at the amazing stuff that Kubiak was doing in the first couple of weeks

before the entire Saints' offense got injured last year, it was all off of deep play action, right? And that doesn't really sound like JSN's game to me, at least from what we've seen in the NFL. It's all been very low A-DOT, very underneath type stuff. That doesn't sound like Cooper Cups game to me at this point in his career. Maybe it's Tori Horton that is kind of in that Rashid-Chaheed role, getting all these big plays, these busted coverages,

off of the deep play action. So that, yeah, he's one to watch. Maybe that's more of like a weekly DFS dart throw or something. Best ball. Or like an 18th round best ball pick for sure. But, yeah, Horton is someone I'm really interested in. Yeah, I mean, it's a very simple. And last year we talked about this in New Orleans, like you said,

it's two wide receivers playing with extra blockers. It sounds super simple. But you have these other teams that are in 11 personnel. all the time. And I think Robbie Outs, the new fullback, like he's 275 pounds. He's 6.3. He's, you know, a tight end sized fullback. He's going to be like a folk hero in Seattle if this offense sort of takes off. I completely agree with your handcuff take. If it's not cost prohibitive to your league, there's certain leagues where it's like having to use the first pick in the ninth round on Charbonnet, but then there's other leagues where he falls to

like the 11th round. So for me, it's a, you know, I'm, I'm open to it, but again, cost prohibitive thing in some leagues. I just think it's going to be a fun offense and very easy to predict offense where, like, we love that in fantasy when it's predictable weekly touches. One offense that is really kind of intriguing to me based on, I think that there's a chance that they're way more pass happy, is going to be the Houston Texans. We have now the Sean McPerva coaching tree taking into effect with Nick.

Kaylee taking over as the offensive coordinator. There's been some positive reports about the quality of the wide receivers in Houston. They used a lot of investment here, Ryan, drafted two day two wide receivers, Jaden Higgins, Jalen Knoll, and also acquired Christian Kirk in a trade. CJ Stroud last year was a huge disappointment at ADP. It's been almost an overcorrection, in my opinion, he's going QB 20 now. seems like an easy click for a guy that could beat his ADP. What's your enthusiasm level for the McVeigh principles now in this Houston offense?

Yeah, this is a really interesting one. And I agree it's one I'm a little more optimistic on than I kind of expected to be going in. I heard Rich Rebar give the take on school of Scott that he expected this to be a very, very past heavy offense, which definitely makes sense based on their backfield personnel. So, yeah, that's great. I'm in for that, down for that. We get the McShanahan principles that Nick Cayley is bringing, hopefully without all of the running the ball on first and 10 and second and nine

that Bobby Slovic was doing all last year, right? So, yeah, just that would be great. But I think Kaylee, low-key could be even better. Kind of zooming in on how this team used play action last year, they were perfectly league average in play action dropback rate, right? They were 16th. We saw when Kaylee went to the Rams and became their past game coordinator last year, the Rams jumped from 28th in play action rate to third in play action rate.

So we don't have any like solid quotes from Kaylee talking about wanting to use more play action, but just kind of shifting those puzzle pieces together. if that happens, Nico Collins averaged five yards per out run on play action dropbacks last year. So if they do any more of that stuff, which is just an overwhelmingly amazing efficiency hack, it helps to have a good run game, but it is not required from most of the studies

that have been done around the NFL over the last several years. If they're doing more play action stuff, then Collins could be a total beast. he's the one I'm really kind of most interested in attacking here. I did move him up my rankings. When I finished digging into this team, he is now my, I believe my 11th overall player, so I'm a bit ahead of ADP there. It's really tricky in that one-two turn.

There's so many good players, but having to pick and choose the guys that you're highest on, and Nico is one I want to be for sure. So yeah, that's like the biggest thing that I see here. I think Stroud, as with any kind of McShanahan pocket passing QB, is really interesting just because there is an outsized chance that he has the elevated touchdown rate in any given year. That's really valuable in Super Flex leagues. That's really valuable in managed leagues as like a waiver wire ad or a later pick. But yeah, that's really the biggest thing to me is could we see more play action? Could Nico go totally insane?

and then I guess can he bring Jaden Higgins along with him there? Yeah, it's an interesting one. With Jaden Higgins, I think it's a, we need Christian Kirk to not really be a thing. We need Jaden Higgins to be the number two target on that offense to really have faith in him being a season long fantasy producer. Now, of course, there's the argument that it takes them half a year and then second half of the year, like we've seen a lot of these wide receivers in this range. Ladd-McConkey, T. Higgins when he was a rookie, certainly D.K. Metcalfe when he was a rookie, made their impact on the second half of the season. But when it comes to Collins,

it's my enthusiasm for Stroud beating his ADP. It's very much tied in to Nico Collins. It's like a symbiotic double bet where Nico Collins, if Stroud really beats his ADP, I think he could carry Collins with him because I think that the neutral pass rate's going to go up. You brought up a lot of fantastic points about Nick Cayley. And sort of Bobby Sloick was a guy that by the time he left there, I've never seen a fan base more excited. So Nick Kelly has like kind of a low bar to cross here. But Nico Collins back to back years of 17 points per game.

Like really good scoring, but not that truly, truly elite. I know Scott made this comparison last year using invoking the name Julio Jones, sort of for the ceiling outcome. for Nico Collins. He's really that sort of beast outside wide receiver, just a huge bodied wide receiver who can do a lot of things. The vibes are great there. So I'm with you. I want to pack some Nico Collins bags rest of the month. I have some. I feel like this could be the year for him. It's a tilting one because again, you're taking him alongside a lot of players we really, really like, but he still could end up paying off. And the turn is just absolutely awesome right now.

Another reason the turn is awesome right now is because of the presence of Brian Thomas Jr. And one of the offensive coordinators from last year that we've alluded to earlier in the show that I think is the most exciting to talk about is Liam Cohen taking over in Jacksonville, stays within the state, makes the short drive from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville, and takes over a team that has a bona fide alpha in BTJ, a fifth year quarterback who is a former number one overall pick in Trevor Lawrence. And then you get the added benefit of Jacksonville trading up, mortgaging their future, and investing in the presence on the sheer talent of Travis Hunter.

So you have two dynamic ride receivers or 22 or younger. This feels really fun. How do you think this Liam Cohen offense is going to look this season and who are some of the players that could really benefit from him taking over. Yeah, so we talked about it a little bit earlier, but one of the most defining features of Liam Cohen is he likes to design a lot of screen targets for his most exciting playmakers. I was Bucky Irving last year. The question is, who will it be this year?

That could definitely be Brian Thomas Jr. And it sounds like it will be Brian Thomas Jr., at least in part. I called Cohen's quote about Thomas the most bullish sound bite. have heard about any player ever that he gave right at the NFL Combine. So way back in March or February or whenever that was. What he basically said was, yeah, he's amazing on the outside. He's amazing downfield. All the stuff he did in college.

That was great. And as a rookie. But I can't wait to also move him into the slot, use them all over the field, throw him screens. I want him to do everything. The offense is going to run through him. And that got me really excited because once you get kind of that combination of all usage all over the field, it's like the best you can get really. That's the best of every possible world.

That's kind of how Jamar Chase had really taken his game from he's the most dominant outside X receiver to, wow, he's just in the slot. He's everywhere. He's doing everything. And he's the best fantasy wide receiver we have, right? So I do think that that's in Brian Thomas's range of outcomes, which is very exciting. We should also zero in some on the Liam Cohen slot role here, right? Because everywhere he's gone, both in college and the NFL, it has been awesome.

Back in 2021, he got over 100 yards from scrimmage per game out of Wondale Robinson in the slot roll at Kentucky. Yes, Liam Cohen is the one who made us care about Wondale Robinson as a prospect, who obviously goes on to the NFL to catch five passes that are with an a dot of two and 0.3 yards after the catch per reception, right? So that like if Cohen can make that guy into a superstar in the slot, I'm very excited about any Liam Cohen slot receiver. We saw with Cooper Cup in 2022 just from the slot averaging about 12 fantasy points per game on like close to a 50% route share. only counted his slot routes, right? Same with Chris Godwin last year, up above 14 fantasy points per game,

just from the slot, again, being about 50% of the total routes in the offense is Godwin in the slot. So, yeah, that's extremely exciting for whoever is in the slot and any point in Jacksonville this year. I think it'll be Brian Thomas Jr.,

maybe 30, 40% of the time. A lot of the rest, I think, is going to be Travis Hunter based on how they used him in that first preseason game. We know this, team wants to be in 11 personnel, they are very often going to have a slot receiver on the field. That has been another consistent tendency of Cohen. So yeah, that that's really it. It's an

amazingly efficient slot role. It's been that Cohen has gotten wide receiver one level production out of two different receivers last year. And we have also, not for nothing, seen him allow a day three rookie to earn opportunity as the year went on until he is giving him a ton of design targets, a ton of very intentional usage, even on just like a 50, 55% snap share to the point that Bucky Irving was a top five running back down the stretch last season. So that is the upside for a basal tootin, in my opinion. And yeah, we just talked about the upside for Thomas and for Hunter. And a lot of people have asked me, Ryan, how are you so high on all of these guys?

Can Trevor Lawrence actually support all of this? And I would say can Baker Mayfield actually support all of this if you asked me a year ago or two years ago, right? That you could have asked the same exact question. Quarterback play in the NFL after like the top six or seven quarterbacks is very dependent on environment and on scheme, right? That's why we randomly see guys that have been totally average to below average quarterbacks have that one year where, oh, they're at a six and a half percent passing touchdown rate and their top three in the NFL and passing touchdowns. Like that that just happens sometimes because of situation. And I think this is a great situation for Trevor Lawrence to potentially do that.

There are other bets I prefer like outside of Superflex to Lawrence at the QV position itself. But yes, I definitely think he can do enough in this offense to make all of these guys big hits at ADP. Your takeaway about Baker Mayfield was an excellent one. and one that I've made a couple of times this offseason where Dave Canales got so much credit, and really he should have, for leading Mayfield to like this resurgence in Tampa, getting his career sort of back on track and our comfort level with him in fantasy football and in real life NFL football back on track. And then Liam Cohen takes over, and it wasn't even close in terms of production.

So Baker Mayfield finishes as a QB1 in 2023. It was like the QB 11, QB 12 in most scoring formats. The last year he was a top four QB under Cohen. He had 41 passing touchdowns, 13 more than in any season of his career, 4,500 passing yards, 500 more than in any season of the career. The completion percentage, you bring up those design targets. Those obviously really helped Baker. But he was never cracked 65% in any year, 71.5%.

point five percent completion percentage and then Ryan just like a little bit of icing on the cake 378 rushing yards for baker mayfield he'd never crack 200 in any other season so Liam Cohen really might be that guy Trevor Lawrence has some mobility I don't want to get like ahead of ourselves but sort of like my CJ Stroud argument it's a really low cost bet and you could see T law being that low end QB1 this year there's a lot of chance that we get a lot of consolidation. And I'll say that the number one thing you said that people should circle and write with like 15 exclamation points if they're taking notes on this show. And I hope they're taking notes on these shows.

I don't know if they are. But BTJ, if you get BTJ to a 40% slot rate, wheels up like crazy. Like wide receiver one overall type vibes there. That would be a huge increase. Get him involved in the screen game. He was so efficient, so explosive last year, and we really, really believe in that talent. Again, you could start your drafts with BTJ, Nico Collins. No one's going to argue with you there.

A lot of viable picks there at the end of the first round. Let's finish off with Ben Johnson. The Ben Johnson, I mean, goes from being the smartest man ever at the offensive coordinator position. It was sort of like a, you had to live in the era. When we go back in time and we look at the best offensive coordinators in the history of NFL in terms of like a short sample size, you know, two, three year run. Ben Johnson has to be up there as the most successful.

Massive turnaround used a lot of very cool, cool schemes, a lot of aggression in his play calling, multiple players succeeding. And it was the balance, Ryan, where they always had passing production and rushing production every single season, usually top eight in both metrics. And overall team scoring, overall yardage. Last year, the only offense that was better was Baltimore. What is your expectations for Ben Johnson in Chicago? How different could a Ben Johnson offense look like on this team than with Detroit

and maybe a few players that you are into this year on ADP on the Chicago Bears team? Yeah. So my guess with Johnson is that he still, for the most part, will want to do kind of what he did in Detroit. Now, I don't think Caleb Williams is Jared Goff. I don't think it's going to be a perfect one-to-one or anything like that. But we just saw Johnson lead the NFL in dropback rate from under center and in play action drop-back crate. I don't know if Caleb Williams is going to lead the NFL literally, like be one-of-one in both of those stats this year. but I would expect a lot more under center,

a lot more play action stuff than we saw from him last year, right? Because he was largely in the shotgun as a rookie, and he was largely worse in the shotgun than he was whenever he was under center, right? He went up to seven and a half yards per attempt when he was under center, he got into the positives and completion percent over expectation. He went from like the worst pressure to sack ratio of the fantasy points data era in the shotgun to just not be. great below average when he was under center.

So I do think that this could lead to Caleb Williams being better, being at least a better steward of this offense than you would expect from his rookie year, which was a disaster schematically for so many different reasons. So yes, I do think Johnson is at least is raising the floor for Caleb Williams this year at worst, right? And very potentially raising the ceiling quite a bit. but I think the highest ceilings that we can look at here really revolves around the slot, which has always been really important for Ben Johnson and the tight end position, right?

Johnson's tight ends have averaged just under a 20% target share over his three seasons as an OC. That's more than George Kittle average last year in 2024. We see T.J. Hawkinson, we see Sam Leporta, both being very, reproductive fantasy tight ends, Leporta being the tight end one in his rookie season. Both of those names got a lot of their production off of that play action that Johnson loves to run so much. So it all kind of jails together into this is an amazing offense for tight ends. Tight ends benefit a lot from play action, even more than wide receivers on average,

just marrying the run with the past game, giving you, as Max Tassano calls it, giving you almost like that joker that can kind of play positionless. and take advantage of mismatches all over the field. If you have a tight end that can be a good blocker and a good receiver, I think that can be Colston Loveland. Scott Barrett compared his analytics profile to a richer man, Sam Leporta. That was pre-NFL draft. And then Ben Johnson's, Ben Johnson,

Leporter's former OC, drafts Loveland in the top 10, right? And then Colcomette opens training camp with the second team. They've been rotating a little bit. but my assumption is Loveland is going to be very clearly the tight end one for this team. And that puts him in the mix to be a high-end tight end one in fantasy this year, just with everything we know about how Johnson likes to run his offenses. The slot thing, I'll go over quicker. Obviously, Amun Ross St. Brown has been amazing in that Ben Johnson slot role.

But it kind of goes all the way back to Jarvis Landry. Johnson has long been like a vocal, really supporter of the slot is like my favorite position. I get to scheme guys so creatively. And it's like his favorite kind of spot on the football field, if that makes any sense. So whoever's in that role is also interesting. I think it'll be Loveland in 12 personnel for sure. But whenever they go 11, especially toward the back end of the year, really good chance that is Luther Burden, who mostly played slot in college.

Assumably, that's what they drafted him for, was to play that slot role. And I think most critically, you can bet on this offense at a much cheaper price point by being in on Loveland on Burden than you can currently do with DJ Moore or even kind of with Roma Dunzee, who's been falling over the last month, month and a half, two months, but it is still more expensive. than those other two guys. Yes, definitely DJ and Rome have pads to hitting, just if this offense is immediately really good,

like we would hope it to be. But even if it's not immediately a top five offense or whatever, then, yeah, there's this path to Loveland and Burden, just being in this featured slot role at these really late ADPs. Yeah, it's just really exciting to me, specifically for those two guys. Yeah, Loveland, I'm doing a bowl. Old Predictions article that's going to be up on fantasy points any day now.

And I predicted that Colson Loveland is going to be a top six score at the tight end position. I think he's got a lot of outs to sort of hit that level. And talent is unquestioned. You brought up the draft capital. 10th overall pick for a tight end is excessively good. You can count on one hand the number of players in recent memory that hit that level. That is higher than Brock Bowers was selected. And with Loveland, Chicago passed up multiple really appealing players there.

They had a need for a running back throughout the draft. We thought they were going to dress it. They passed on a Marian Hampton there. They had a need for, you talked about the slot. They were linked to Emeka, Agbuka, very late in the process, passed on Egbuka there. He's been sort of steaming up. And they passed on multiple offensive linemen there at 10 overall that could have really helped them in sort of an evolving unit.

instead drafting Ozzie Trapio in the second round. So for me, like Loveland, they love him. He is analytically awesome, led Michigan and everything. Michigan is sort of a poor total passing yards and passing statistics team, but in terms of every metric, Loveland hit it. And the Michigan National Championship team, he nearly had more receptions at the tight end position than Roman Wilson, a third round pick and a senior bowl standout.

I had at the wide receiver position. So for me, I think Loveland's is fantastic value. I love that. I think my big takeaway is I think that this Ben Johnson offense is going to be more pass happy than we saw during his time in Detroit. I think that's really exciting. I like your burden take as well. I think we're going to have to wait for the second half of the year for him really to kind

get unlocked. But I'm with you for enthusiasm. Ryan, we covered every single new offensive coordinator. Give me one team and offensive coordinator that you're really excited. to see this year, potentially a team that could have a much better offense in 2025 than they did in 2024. Yeah, this one's actually really easy for me. It's the Falcons with Zach Robinson.

And I talk about this at length in the article, too, if people are curious. But basically what we see usually with these McShanahan offensive coordinators is that they're going to play under center a lot and they're going to use a lot of play action. That's most of them, especially the McVeigh guy. right. But Robinson was the opposite last year. The Falcons were dead last in play action drop back rate. Kurt Cousins was almost never under center. And that was because Cousins was totally broken physically. Like he just could not effectively do a real drop back, get play action, plan his foot, turn around, and deliver the ball, right? Obviously, you have Cousins playing for most of the season that is kind of hamstringing them in that way.

Michael Panix comes in for three games at the end of the year. He did not really do much under center at all in college either. He was mostly from the shotgun. Wasn't really a lot of time to install anything new there. But now with a full offseason, my guess, my feeling, my educated assumption is that the Falcons are going to be adding a lot more under center, a lot more play action, both of which have been really big efficiency cheat codes for Bijon Robinson. he's been in over five yards per carry whenever his QB is under center. Drake London has seen over his career a really nice boost in his yards for outrun on play action.

So we could really see this offense take a big step forward this year. I think that is partially priced into ADP, but not entirely. This really cements Bijon Robinson is my 102. Like unquestionably, he's in a tier above Gibbs for me. and it makes me really excited about Drake London, really anywhere in round two. I have him pushed up in my rankings well ahead of ADP. I have him above AJ Brown, just really like he's in that kind of early second value for me. Yeah, he's really exciting.

Darnell Mooney, interesting late. He actually on play action last year averaged the same fantasy points per route run as Amunra St. Brown did, which was a top 12 rate, I believe. so even Mooney is pretty intriguing here to me. So yeah, those three guys on the Falcons are pretty cool to me, just from like a what could happen that will be different this year's schematic perspective. Yeah, I think Bejohn's been my pick to finish as the RB1 overall.

I love Gibbs. I have Gibbs at three overall in my top 100 PPR rankings, which you can read over on fantasy points right now for free. But Robinson, I have like solidly at two. I think that his reception numbers are going to trend way, way up this year, and he's just going to be awesome. Drake London has a potential 180 target outcome. I think that there could be a gap between him and Mooney that we didn't see last year. Pennix really hyper-targeted him last year.

We believe in the talent, and I'm with you. I have London ahead of Ladd-McConkie, ahead of A.J. Brown. London's one of the best picks inside of round two. Robinson, one of the best picks inside of round one. Zach Robinson really fun. And a lot of times those second year coordinators take their team to a whole other level. It's the comfort level.

It's the familiarity with everything. And the improvements teams making the offseason based on the scheme, we see that with Atlanta. So this was amazing. Make sure you check out Ryan's article. It's absolutely awesome. What else do you have coming out the rest of the month, Ryan? Yeah.

So right now on the site, you can go and see all of my must draft players. there's an article for it that's just called Ryan Heats and must draft players has all of my biggest targets. It kind of talks you through the strategy of guys I would prioritize, guys you should reach around on, which targets are more important than others, has my top 60 rankings in there that I need to give an update to after the Rishi Rice stuff and everything else that's been crazy and happening this week.

So yeah, if you just want to draft your fantasy teams, the Ryan Heathway, yeah, go right on there. Ryan Heats must draft 2025 fantasy football players. That is paywalled, but yeah, fantasy points subscribers will be able to go check that out. Yeah, and use the code Theo 2025. Get yourself a fantasy point subscription for the season. Make sure you check out Ryan every week on Dynasty Points. Make sure you check out my Dynasty podcast, Dynasty Life. Fantasy Football Daily, we're dropping multiple shows a week in season,

waiver wire, in season starts it. We've got you covered. And make sure you're checking out School of Sky. Scott Barrett and I have dropped a number of really strong episodes recently. If you're listening to this on a podcast, do us a favor and subscribe to Fantasy Points YouTube. If you're watching this on Fantasy Points YouTube, subscribe to our podcast. It costs you nothing. It helps us out a lot.

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