Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Football ADP Battles: Who to Draft, Who to Fade! w/ Joe Dolan

Episode Date: May 26, 2025

Use code SCOREMORE10 at checkout for 10% OFF any subscription. Dominate your league. Win more bets. Level up your game. Who actually gives you the edge in 2025 fantasy drafts? Joe Dolan breaks down ...the biggest ADP battles and pocket debates in fantasy football — giving you bold picks, sharp fades, and key context to win your league. 👊 Which RB is worth a 2nd-round pick: Bijan, Saquon, or Gibbs? 🔥 Who wins the WR war: Nabers vs. Puka vs. Brian Thomas Jr.? 👀 Can Ladd McConkey outscore Drake London? ⚖️ Kyren vs. Breece vs. Chase Brown, Kamara vs. RJ Harvey vs. Kenneth Walker, and more! 💡 Joe flags schedules you need to know — including a great one for Kenneth Walker and a tough one for Jahmyr Gibbs. 💸 Plus, insight into “ADP pockets” and how to leverage value in the $350 range. 🧠 Play the poll: Who scores more points — Ladd or London? 📻 And don’t miss Joe daily on Fantasy Sports Radio (SiriusXM)! Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 When planning for life's most important moments, sometimes the hardest part is simply knowing where to start. That's why we're here to help. When you pre-plan and prepay a celebration of life with us, every detail will be handled with simplicity and professionalism, giving you the peace of mind that you've done all you can today to remove any burden from your loved ones tomorrow. We are your local Dignity Memorial provider. Find us at Dignitym memorial.ca. The Dignity Memorial brand name is used to identify a network of licensed funeral cremation and cemetery providers owned and operated by affiliates of Service Corporation International. ADP head-to-head battles in May. We're talking about early ADP reactions. Theo Grammiger, Fantasy Football Daily, joined today by Joe Dolan.
Starting point is 00:00:48 And Joe, this is your first time coming on Fantasy Football Daily solo. You've come on in like the big fantasy points group. But today we're going to go nitty gritty. We talked about this in the pre-show, and your take on this, sort of this time of year, when we're talking about upper echelon players,
Starting point is 00:01:04 a lot of times it'll be, you'll hear podcasts, and you'll read articles, and they'll say, you know, I have these three players sort of in their own tier. And I think that can be a little bit of a cop-out. Tier-based ranking is fun, but at the end of the day, being able to nail the best possible outcome pick, that's what we're going for. Yeah, so I always have to place a caveat on that, Theo, when I'm talking to somebody and somebody's,
Starting point is 00:01:32 let's just say, I have these people in my life, and I know you have them too. I call them my August friends. The people who are like, oh, you know, I wonder how Dolan's doing. It's August 27th. I just thought of Dolan. Like, I wonder what he's up to. By the way, Joe, what's happening?
Starting point is 00:01:48 I got a draft coming up this weekend. When you're talking to people like that, it's a little bit different than like when you or I are having a conversation or when our staff discord is having a conversation about players. Because I do tier-based rankings. And what that will mean is if, I'm doing 50 underdog drafts this offseason.
Starting point is 00:02:09 Let's just throw a nice even number on it. And I get the eighth pick in all 50. I'm going to split that eighth pick, like I'm going to split that maybe 40, 30, 30, or I might split it 40, 40, 20 between three different players, right? And if I'm coming into like the third round, I might say, well, I really like this player, but I have way too much of him. I'm going to pivot to this other player. We have the luxury of doing that, right?
Starting point is 00:02:41 A lot of people who are going to listen to the show, maybe not people who are listening in May, but a lot of people who are going to listen to the show in August are going to say, dude, I don't care if you have the 10th pick 25 times, how you're splitting it up. I have it once. Tell me what player you want me to take there. So you do still have to have the binary opinion, right?
Starting point is 00:03:02 Like you do still have to say, all right, gun to my head. This is the guy I'm taking in that situation. This is the guy I'm going to stake my season on. So while I am going to have probably shares of most of the players we're going to discuss today, a lot of other folks aren't going to have that luxury when when push comes to shove. And you have to kind of thread that needle when you're having this discussion. Yeah, I love how you brought up the underdog effect. And the underdog effect, and it really has like driven the growth of bestball.
Starting point is 00:03:30 So maybe Underdog is not your thing. Maybe you play FFPC. Maybe you do drafters. But the best ball effect has sort of made us into exposure drafters. And the idea that I can do a bunch of drafts that cost me $3, $5, $10. Like that's a wonderful thing for fantasy football managers. But when it comes down to it, again, like the head-to-head edges are significant. The other thing that we get with the underdog effect,
Starting point is 00:04:00 is a lot of people can sort of, like you said, just talk about spreading it out, putting it on a bunch of different teams. I think that we're really talking about, again, to these drafters who might specifically be preparing for one or two drafts. Maybe you're in four leagues, and you want to just completely get it right. Another thing that Underdog has done for us is it's made ADP a lot more stagnant. So a lot of times we'll get these pushbacks on doing articles or, podcasts and they'll say, guys, can you just pump the brakes just a little bit?
Starting point is 00:04:34 It's May. ADP is going to continually shift and continually change. And I'd say to you, Joe, and I don't know if you agree with this, not really. At the end of the day, if we look at like the top 24 on underdog, the top 24 in FFC, wherever you're looking at your ADP source, it sort of stays the same. And there'll be a few guys who move around because of injuries. Maybe one or two guys who are third round values can steam up into the second. round. But for for the the most part, you're talking about stagnant ADP, really from Memorial Day
Starting point is 00:05:08 all the way into the big money drafts of September. Yeah, it's going to take training camp news and a constant drumbeat of training camp news. I think what people are going to be waiting for, Theo, is news on some of these murkier situations, right? But even still, we look at something like the Jacksonville backfield, right? And I know I don't want to go too far on a tangent here. But I think people are just like, up, Baye Holt-Tooten's going to win this job because they're sick of Travis E.N. and they're sick of Tank Bigsby. And his ADP has already been juiced up because people missed on Bucky Irving last year. Can that ADP really go anywhere else? I guess if ETN gets traded, that'll probably send him into the stratosphere. But people already have these
Starting point is 00:05:52 preconceived notions. We are fantasy football, you're constantly looking for the next great thing. And that's already artificially, um, artificially, increased ADPs in some of these, these players. The really, the old school sleeper is pretty much dead. Like the sleepers now are guys who we've already kind of, kind of had a taste of and we decided,
Starting point is 00:06:15 ah, we don't like that. We're going to go down the menu at Taco Bell and pick out the next new thing that they put out. And then sometimes you might realize, you know, I got to go back to the chalupa, man. Like, like, they, they put out this. cheesy grilled thing. Scott's way more of a Taco Bell expert than I am. But like, you know, they constantly introduce these new items. Some hit, some don't. And then the old Reliables are there. Those are really the sleepers of fantasy football, right? The guys who have been here and maybe they gave us a good year and then they didn't give us a good year.
Starting point is 00:06:47 Now we're forgetting about them. We want to replace them. Those are the guys who I kind of want to read the news on in the summer. Those veterans like a tank big speed, like a Travis E. T.N. Man, could these guys bounce back when everybody is counting them out? Yeah, a lot of times the unsexy picks are the ones that really, really hit. Go back to two seasons ago, Josh Jacobs was running back 23, gave you a top three scoring season. No one was excited to draft Josh Jacobs. We see that sort of situation hit. I think another recent edge has just been embracing players in new situations.
Starting point is 00:07:21 We've seen a lot of players getting traded, beating their ADP, players who signed his free agents, beating their ADP. And certainly Joe, an edge that we've had for many seasons was embracing rookie wide receivers. Ten years ago, it was embracing rookie running backs. Lately it's been the rookie wide receivers. But we're going to talk about a lot of those players today. One player who did not make our ADP battle list, but absolutely could have, that there's a little bit of polarization here at fantasy points about is Christian McCaffrey. Graham Barfield, very, very bullish on him this season. Scott Barrett, extremely bullish on him this season. Brett Whitefield and I have been somewhat skeptical about this ADP climb. And his ADP climb has been really significant. Joe, when we
Starting point is 00:08:07 were streaming our NFL draft coverage, you could get access to Christian McCaffrey around the 15th through 19th pick, depending on your draft, like a mid to low end or a second round value. He's steamed up big time. You're starting to see him go in the top eight in the FFPC. On Underdog, he's the 11th overall pick. It seems like his ADP literally goes up like 0.2 points per day on underdog. He's 11.5 today. Next week, I wouldn't be surprised if he's like 10.9. People are really pushing the chips back in on Christian McCaffrey.
Starting point is 00:08:43 Notably, he's going ahead of Derek Henry, ahead of Devon A. Chan, two players we were very high on last year. And when we're talking about removing the positional distinction, you're talking about taking him ahead of a guy like a Brian Thomas, a real big edge to drafters last year. Just how bullish are you on Christian McCaffrey when you have to weigh in the opportunity cost of drafting him in the first round? This is, I'm going to sound so marble mouth compared to what I just said, like taking the unsexy pick.
Starting point is 00:09:12 And this is, this is where you really have to get into your own brain, right? Calling Christian McCaffrey an unsexy pick is like, like, compared to where we were just a year ago is like the most mind-numbing thought that you can have. But like when I look at it, and I've been talking to Tom Broley on the Best Betts podcast about this, he's a lot more bullish on the 49ers than I am. I thought their offseason, I think maybe was a necessary evil, but I'm not going to sit here and tell you I think their roster's better than it was last year because I don't. Maybe they had to kind of give themselves an enema just to get rid of some of that waste that it accumulated on the roster and so they could extend Brock Purdy.
Starting point is 00:09:54 But then you look at the numbers. They have a 10 and a half win total. And also by implied schedule strength just based on opponents' win total, Scott Barrett talked about this in his strength of schedule articles, the 49ers have the easiest schedule in the NFL. And then you talk about Brandon Ayyuk, potentially not being ready for the start of the season. Debo Samuel is gone. You know, can Ricky Pearsall take the next step?
Starting point is 00:10:19 George Kittle had a great year, but we know injuries have been a part of his history. could there be that massive role for Christian McCaffrey available to him? They traded away Jordan Mason. So the most effective guy behind him, Elijah Mitchell obviously didn't play last year, but he's gone as well. The most effective guy behind him, he's now gone. It's kind of setting up for McCaffrey to be the bell cow again. I don't know if I can click the button on him that ate overall, though, Theo,
Starting point is 00:10:46 if I was doing just one draft. I feel like there's a lot of risk there. But could he come back and have the, I'm not going to, to say he's going to go 1,000,000 again, but could he come back and go 1,200, 700 and end up being a league winner? Yeah, that's certainly within the realm of outcomes. Yeah, I love your point on McCaffrey. And I'm sort of with you.
Starting point is 00:11:07 I would have had a lot more exposure if he would have stayed at ADP, but a player like Christian McCaffrey doesn't just stand put when there's all these reports of his positive health and him getting a completely full workload. Graham had this take when we when we talked to last week on Fantasy. Football Daily, where for McCaffrey, even if he cedes some carries to guys like Isaac Arendo or a Jordan James, it's really getting him back to that high-end receiving role that he was just, in his peak seasons, you're talking about a guy who had an 85 reception season in 2022, 67 catches in 2023.
Starting point is 00:11:43 If he can go north of 70 receptions again this season, then he's a huge win at the one-two turn. And Joe, it's really been the one-two-turn. turn has driven win rates over the last two seasons. It was CD Lamb two seasons ago. Seekwon Barkley was living there last year. And now you got Christian McCaffrey sort of in that range. If McAfree is fully back, then the win rates for the 12 hole are going to hit once again. A really fun player to talk about.
Starting point is 00:12:13 Let's take a quick break. We come back. Joe, you're on the clock and we're talking early running back picks. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Daily. Theo Graminger with Joe Dolan. Joe, you're coming back to serious satellite radio. Yeah. So this was a deal.
Starting point is 00:12:27 This was, well, I don't want to say, I don't want to say it was unexpected, but like this was not in the plans when we went off the air in February. But we're coming back. We're coming back in July. It'll be Paul Kelly, Tom Braleigh and myself. Paul Kelly will host five days a week. I'll be on Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Tom will be on Tuesday, Thursday. And we're going to have guest spots from all the usual, John Han.
Starting point is 00:12:51 and we'll be back for his popular segments, including the Skank Squad. We'll get Brett Whitefield on. We'll get you on. We'll get multiple people on. But the fact of the matter is right now, Theo, the show is going to be the fantasy points power hour. It's going to be from 7 to 8 a.m. That is subject.
Starting point is 00:13:07 I guess the window is subject to change, but that's currently the plan. And we're going to pack as much information into that hour. Hopefully we can entertain you on your drive into work as we did for so many years. Yeah, a lot of excitement about it. I love that it's an hour. not only for your work, work rate, Joe, but also because it's going to be so action-packed and it's going to be so much knowledge. They are helping you win your fantasy leagues on the way to work.
Starting point is 00:13:31 I mean, what's better than that? And what's better than getting a top five pick this year and having access to players like Sequin Barclay and Bejan Robinson? Last year was the year of the running back. We saw all these running backs hit. The market is betting on a return where Sequan's going off the board around the 102. Bijon's neck and neck with him. And then you have Javier Gibbs sort of settling in right around the fifth overall pick on FFPC.
Starting point is 00:13:59 I was in a draft where Gibbs dropped all the way to the 108. Usually when it comes to Gibbs, he's going to go somewhere around pick six or higher. So you're really looking at those big three. Two players entering their third season in the league who took massive steps forward last year and year two. Jemir Gibbs basically won people leagues with his performance in the fifth. fantasy football playoffs. And then Sequin Barclay, who was absolutely sensational, had over 2,000 rushing yards, finished as the RB 1 through week 17. Which of these three would you be most confident in this season if you could pick one? I'm, this might actually surprise people,
Starting point is 00:14:39 but I'm going to say Bijon. Like, I feel like Bijan taking that next step has been something that, I mean, I think he did it last year. What, he averaged 80 rushing yards, 60, receiving yards last year. I feel like his receiving work is more, is more significant than Sequons right now. Obviously, Seekwon had the worst year of his career, really, as a receiver because Jalen Hertz runs so much. Bejohn Robinson also is the guy who, well, Sequin Barclay has less competition, but Bejohn Robinson, you would think, gets both the goal line work that Seyquan Barclay doesn't get, and
Starting point is 00:15:16 he's going to get the receiving work that Seyquan Barkley doesn't get. Moreover, he doesn't have the immediate competition that a Jemir Gibbs has from a David Montgomery. We also have Sequin Barkley getting a new offensive coordinator. We've got, I think most significantly, Jamir Gibbs getting a new offensive coordinator this offseason. The Lions have the hardest running back schedule adjusted strength of schedule this year. They have a new offensive coordinator, which is a problem for me. I love all these players. but Bejohn's the one I think I'm actually going to flag plan on because of the combination of things.
Starting point is 00:15:54 I think they kind of cast Tyler Alger aside last year. Not that he's a terrible player, but they decided Bijan was better, which was to their benefit. Sequin still has to deal with the tush push. Jemir Gibbs has the hard schedule, the new offensive coordinator, and David Montgomery. I love all these players. But if I had the flag plant one, Theo, I think it's actually going to be Beijon Robinson. Yeah, and Jemir Gibbs is sort of been my guy over the last few seasons, and I love, love, love Gibbs. But having a new offensive coordinator there, the potential that there is a little
Starting point is 00:16:27 bit of offensive regression from the Ben Johnson era, that absolutely needs to be factored in. And Joe, I know I'm going to get access to Jemir Gibbs sometimes around the 106-107 range. So when it comes down to having this very early pick, I'm completely with you on Bejohn. I think Bejohn, like, we don't have any question marks about the offensive coordinator. We're talking about Zach Robinson in year two. I think we have a lot of confidence there. He showed that he's going to be a very functional coordinator. Sort of the years of Arthur Smith are long gone from our memories.
Starting point is 00:17:00 Bejon had 60 receptions last year. Why can't that turn into 75 in year two? Bejohn had 1,500, nearly 1,500 rushing yards. I mean, you're talking about a player who legitimately could put up a 25. per game per game season. I took him at the 102 in the FFPC Hardway draft, always one of the more difficult drafts of the year. We did that last month.
Starting point is 00:17:22 I covered that right here on Fantasy Football Daily. But I think Bejohn gives you an elite edge early on in drafts. And with Saquan, I worry about the volume he had to sustain. I mean, you brought up the lack of pass catching in Philly. That's just not been something that Jalen Hertz has done, despite having D'Andre Swift and Sequin Barkley the last two seasons. he just doesn't target his backs. But when it comes down to it,
Starting point is 00:17:45 like, Sequin was unbelievable. But you're talking about a guy who had 340 carries and 345 in the regular season. Joe, he had 91 carries in the playoffs. I mean, like he's Superman, but at the end of the day, that number has to come in. So Sequin, as hard it is to fade him from last season, I think you embrace the upside of the young player with Bejan Robinson. So we completely agreed on that one.
Starting point is 00:18:12 Let's keep this. Yeah, I just wanted to correct myself. I said, like, 80 rushing yards and 60 receiving yards per game. It was the 60 receptions in the season that was the number that I meant to say. But that's still an awesome number for Bejan. And I just feel like he's the safest bet of these three. Just really quick with Sequin, I do wonder, even though the Tush Push didn't get banned, I do wonder if the Eagles are going to spend this off season building some tweaks off of it, right?
Starting point is 00:18:37 Like still kind of get out ahead of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see Seyquon get a little more work at the goal line. year. Yeah, I mean, it would make sense to use him whenever you could. Jalen Hertz, not having the push go away. What a turn of events yesterday, Joe. We could do a whole show about just how many takes there were on X for about two hours. And then it was all for not when Jalen Hertz is back. So, Sequin, we're okay drafting them, but we both prefer Bejan Robinson. Let's talk about the wide receivers. And there's this cluster of wide receivers who I think are all in contention to finish as the wide receiver one overall.
Starting point is 00:19:14 And we got to pick one for this exercise. We're talking about from picks 9 through 11 right now in FFPC, it goes three consecutive receivers, Malik neighbors, Puka Nakua, and Brian Thomas Jr. All three of these players are fantastic talents, all very highly ranked in our dynasty rankings, and will be highly ranked in our weekly rankings at fantasy points, I'm sure, all season long.
Starting point is 00:19:40 let's pick one of them. If you had to pick an absolute smash season and one of these players finishing as the wide receiver one or close to it, which one would it be? My flight plan is Puka. And there is a point this off season when Chris Wecht actually had Puka as our wide receiver one. And in doing so, essentially had him as basically our number one overall player.
Starting point is 00:20:03 I think you see Jemar Chase go number one very often in FFPC drafts, underdog drafts. But Puka, look, he's got the best quarterback here. He's got no Cooper Cup. Now, he does have to contend with Devante Adams, which I think could be, in theory, an upgrade on Cooper Cup. But this is a guy who can produce alongside another elite receiver. We've seen the Sean McVeigh offense. We've seen it support multiple elite fantasy players. And this is just a guy who... this is going to sound so strange because, like, it's almost kind of a tape take, but it's, it's not really because I'm not a tape grinder. But Puka, to me, just fits the profile of a guy who dominates for fantasy football.
Starting point is 00:20:51 You know, sometimes you have a guy like an A.J. Brown, for instance, you'll have a down game, you know, maybe because his targets are focused a little bit more down the field. But Puka can go down the field. We saw him do it. He made that miracle catch against the Eagles in the playoffs that almost won the Rams the game. but he operates in the short area. He operates in the slot. They can bring him out of the backfield and give him those little push passes. They work on ways to get Pooka Nakua, the ball in his hands. Pook is my guy, Theo.
Starting point is 00:21:21 And if he falls to me as like the third or fourth receiver off the board, which I have seen at points, I mean, I am all about that. That is an instant click for me. If I could get come away with my one draft this year, with Pooka Nakua is my first round pick, I will be thrilled. Pooka is my guy of this team. I love Pooka Nakuwa. And I think that, you know, anybody sort of scared for Devante Adams' presence. We haven't seen a team that's more consolidated in terms of their targets for their wide receiver one
Starting point is 00:21:49 and wide receiver two combined than what Sean McVeigh does in L.A. On Fantasy Points data, we talked about this a lot on School of Scott last year. It was just so consolidated between Cup and Nakuwa in the weeks that they were both healthy. And I think we'll see that again with Adams and Nekua. I think the two of them are probably the best bet for the highest combined target share. Sure you could throw Jemar Chase and T Higgins into that mix as well. I love Nakuwa. But for me, I think it's Malik Neighbors. I think Neighbors is the edge pick for me.
Starting point is 00:22:20 I know that there's some question marks at quarterback in New York. But when it comes to Neighbors, he's almost quarterback proof. 170 targets in only 15 games played. I mean, that's obscene for a 21-year-old player. That's 11.3 targets per game. I think that number could actually trend up this season. And at the end of the day, it's a very simple formula for chasing the wide receiver one overall. For the last four seasons, the wide receiver one overall has led the NFL in targets and led the NFL in catches.
Starting point is 00:22:53 And I think Malik neighbors and Pukukua are both very, very good bets to do that. And that's sort of why I would have both of these guys ahead of Brian Thomas. Brian Thomas, his wide receiver one overall path is like a peak Josh Gordon type outcome. I don't see him getting into like the 130 catch range that I think Malik Neighbors could this year. And I think there's also potential for a positive touchdown regression. Neighbors had seven touchdown grabs last year. But this is the kind of player with his explosive ability to be able to just separate from defenses and have these big explosive plays. With neighbors, I just feel like I'm getting a slightly more dangerous pick than Nakua.
Starting point is 00:23:31 But it's really splitting hairs. They're both fantastic. Yeah. Also, you wonder. about Puka Nakua's ability to get in the end zone. He played 11 games last year. He scored just three receiving touchdowns. Cooper Cup played basically the same number of games, but had six receiving touchdowns. How much of that goes to Nakua? How much of that goes to Devante Adams? Does Kyron Williams, a player we're probably going to talk about, does he fit into that as well?
Starting point is 00:23:55 So Puka Nakua has put up these massive seasons without getting into the end zone a whole lot. It's just nine receiving touchdowns in his career. I think that's a big factor as well for Naku. and I'm projecting that he can probably do a lot more in that department. We've got to talk about another high-end wide receiver battle right after this. Okay, Joe, this is where we get to the second round, and we mentioned players that could potentially finish as the wide receiver one overall. I think two kind of dark horses are being drafted back to back in round two, and that's Ladd-McConkie and Drake London,
Starting point is 00:24:29 a second-year player next to a third-year player. Both of these guys were terrific last year. had exceptional breakout seasons, and they're going consecutively right now, 18th and 19th overall. If you had to pick between Drake London and Ladd-McConkie, who would it be? I wanted to say McConkey because I trust the quarterback more. And again, he kind of fits the profile that I'm looking for. The guy who can work outside and in the slot, the guy who you know the quarterback's going to look to on third and five when he needs to convert a first down. But then I look at what the Chargers did this offseason.
Starting point is 00:25:07 Mike Williams, I don't know how many games he's going to play this year, but they brought him back. They drafted Trey Harris. They drafted Keandre Lambert Smith, not a favorite of mine because he left Penn State. But they also signed Tyler Conklin. They drafted Arronday Gadsden. They signed Najee Harris, and they brought into Marion Hampton. What does Jim Harbaugh want to do? It does not matter.
Starting point is 00:25:28 Jim Harbaugh could have Joe Montana and Prime Jerry Rice, and Jim Harbaugh wants to play big, dumb Jim Harbaugh football. He wants to run the football. He is going to do so with Marion Hampton. He is going to do so with Najee Harris. We just talked about how I think the Falcons are going to run the ball a lot with Bijon Robinson, but they're really not talking all that highly about Kyle Pitts this offseason. I think Drake London's got a good case here to lead the NFL in targets.
Starting point is 00:25:57 I truly do. And I feel like he's going to be the guy here. The question I have is about Michael Pennix and Theo, I know you. I know you've kind of dug into the numbers here, and you might be pretty high on what Michael Penix can bring to this offense based on the small sample size we had last year. And that's why I'm going to go with Drake London here. Yeah, I think when we look at Pennix, the things that Kirk Cousins really struggled at last year were the turnovers. I think Michael Penix is going to be a lot tighter with the football. And I think we have a chance that he's going to be way more hyper targeted to his wide receiver one. It's a small sample size, but in three starts last year, Drake London averaged 23 points per game next to Michael. Pennix and sort of broke fantasy points data, 39% target share. That's 13 targets per game. He had a 50.6% area yard share, 0.41 targets per route run, and a 45.1% first read rate. And Scott Barrett loves talking about XFP, expected fantasy points per game. He actually
Starting point is 00:26:55 had a 25.1 XFP. So like for me, Drake London, all the stuff you talk about, Vlad McConkey, I think a lot of drafters have a little bit of recency bias. And to Ladd's credit, he was unbelievable. That playoff game, he had 197 yards or something, just absurd, absurd performance. But I think the consistency you're going to get with Drake London, you're going to like clicking that button a lot more. Joe, we talked about ADP being a little bit stagnant. I think there's a chance Drake London also slightly rises up and gets a little closer to
Starting point is 00:27:28 those guys at the one-two turn as the same. summer moves along because I think a lot more people are going to have our take. And when you start diving into the situation, London's in great shape to get north of 150 targets in this sort of range of the draft. Really, really a fun click. Let's keep this going. Let's talk about running backs. We're going to drop from round two into round three. And we're seeing a cluster. Kieran Williams, Brees Hall, and Chase Brown are all going basically back to back in the 26th through 30 range, currently in FFPC. Between
Starting point is 00:28:02 Kairn, Brees Hall, and Chase Brown, is there a particular player you would be betting on to have a peak season? Yeah, this is another one that's pretty easy for me, and it's Chase Brown. I thought he was a huge winner of the offseason. Theo, I know you wrote a couple of articles this offseason where you were a little concerned that, look, Chase Brown was a bell cow of necessity last year, right? Like you had the injuries with Zach Moss, and you had, the Bengals just needing to lean on him.
Starting point is 00:28:33 They didn't trust anybody else there. But by the end of the year, there was nobody who was a bigger bell cow than Chase Brown. And that includes Sequin Barkley because the Eagles worked in Kenny Gamewell quite a bit on third downs. And look, Zach Moss is still on the roster. They did sign Samajai Pryne. Samajie Pryan is a coach's pet. He's somebody who blocks well. He hangs on to the football and he catches it well, which could seed some work.
Starting point is 00:28:56 Chase Brown could seed some work to him. But their most significant investment in the drafts, was a six-round pick, Taj Brooks. And I still feel like the Bengals just because, this is not because of anything that Zach Taylor's done, but just because of the amount of talent they've amassed, they are going to have a good offense. We know that.
Starting point is 00:29:15 Like a good offense is probably their floor. And Chase Brown, I think, remains as the bell cow here. And he's going to be a great pick, I think, at that spot. I'm actually surprised he's not going a little bit higher. I'd like to hear your take on that. But when it comes to Kyron Williams, this is now the second straight year. Like, Sean McVeigh drafts running backs every year.
Starting point is 00:29:37 They drafted Jarquez Hunter this year, Blake Quorum last year. And the fumbling issue is the problem for me with Kyron. I think this is a guy they've loved ever since he's come into the league, but he isn't an explosive player. He's been a fumbler. And now I wonder that Sean McVeigh tendency to pump and dump, which is what he used to do.
Starting point is 00:29:55 You know, he did it with Todd Gurley, and then C.J. Anderson. and then Darrell Henderson, and then Stoney Michelle. He just, all of these guys were a bell cow, Cam Acres, at one point or another, and then he just moved down the line. Does he have the opportunity to do that with Kyron Williams this year? That's what's kind of separating them. And I'm going to plant my flag with Chase Brown of this trio.
Starting point is 00:30:15 I'm completely with you, and I think you made a great argument for Chase Brown. We don't have any of the offensive question marks that we do with the New York Jets. And when it comes to Kyron Williams, like, we're talking about Kyron Williams, a hundred and ninety four pound back who had three hundred and sixteen carries last year. That has to come in. And they drafted Jarkwez Hunter. Blake Corum is going to be healthy. They've used the word committee.
Starting point is 00:30:39 And, you know, this is not something we've seen Sean McVigay ever do. But Brett Whitefield always brings up like McVeigh is a guy who can adjust based on his roster and necessity. Went from being a 11 personnel guy to a 12 personnel guy because of what. had on the roster. We could see the same thing this year with just working in another back. Rams have talked about what they saw in Tampa Bay last year, how they really like, you know, how it was Bucking Irving and Rashad White. Maybe they work in a second back just a little bit more.
Starting point is 00:31:11 I think when I'm chasing a RB1 outcome in this range of the draft, as you definitely should be if you're drafting a running back in round three, it's definitely Chase Brown. 15.9 points per game last year. And Joe, even if the carries stay sort of stagnant or come in slightly. He was at about 230 carries last year, but he had 54 receptions. I think that number could actually go up. And this Bengals offense is fantastic. They could lead the NFL in scoring this year. So we are completely in line on the last two. Let's talk about the end of round three. We've got a cluster of four wide receivers. And this is a fun one, because we have the three old guys, Tyree Kill, Terry McLaren, and Devante Adams, alongside Marvin Harrison, Jr., heading into his second
Starting point is 00:31:55 season in the league. At this time last year, if I told you Marvin Harrison Jr. would be being drafted at the end of round three. You probably would have had a little bit of pushback. He was going at the one two turn last year. Tyreek Hill also a significant decrease in ADP. He was going in the top three last year. So we have two guys who dropped out around one in this range. McClureen, a huge riser. And Devante Adams, about the same as we saw last year. Where are you at between this group of four wide receivers if they had to click on one. I hate this because I am I am fading the dolphins this year, at least as a team as a whole.
Starting point is 00:32:34 I've already put a five unit bet on their under eight and a half wins. Tom Brawley says that's been kind of a popular bet because those odds just keep getting shorter for them to go under that number. But I'm actually going to go with Tyree Kill here, Theo. There's a reason to believe the wrist was nethered. never write last year. And Scott Barrett raised an excellent point in his strength of schedule article for wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:33:03 It's not necessarily the overall strength of schedule, but the schematic strength of schedule that could really help Tyreek Hill this year. No team faced more too high looks than Miami did last year, which obviously that's been kind of the macro look at the NFL. The run games kind of returned in a way because of all the two high looks. but Hill plays 10 of his 17 games this coming season against defenses that were top 12 in single high rate. So I wouldn't be surprised that there's a little bit of a bounce back for Tyreek Hill this year. And I have to look at what the Dolphins did this offseason at wide receiver.
Starting point is 00:33:41 It was pretty much nothing. They brought in Nick Westbrook Akina, who did nothing but score touchdowns last year. You know, they actually had a guy like that in River Craycraft a couple of years ago who would kind of throw a wrench into your fantasy weeks when he would score touchdowns. But the lack of competition added, the fact that the offense remains the same, the fact that he's a little bit healthier, and now there's a two-round discount
Starting point is 00:34:03 on where he was getting drafted last year of this group, I think Tyreeks my guy. Yeah, you make a great, great, great argument for Tyree Kill. And I had Brett Whitefield on Dynasty Life. I think betting on a Tyree Kill sort of bounce back season, it might be uncomfortable. You hate betting on guys whose points per game dropped over 10 points per game
Starting point is 00:34:22 to bounce back. But at this range, if Tyree can just give you 16 points per game, you're really in pretty good shape. But for me, I'm leaning into Devante Adams. This is the best, this is the best coordinator he's ever had in Sean McVeigh. I think that the idea of Devante Adams in a Sean McVeigh led offense and coexisting next to a Pukkahua, think about where Cooper Cup ended up last season, where he was being drafted at the end of August, early September. I think Devante Adams, you're getting a little bit of a discount. Last year in New York and in Vegas, he averaged over 17 points per game. Now he's in an offense where I believe it's going to be very consolidated. I believe they're going to score a lot of points. And we've seen the Matt
Starting point is 00:35:06 Stafford McVeigh combination. When you get these players like Devante Adams and they have advantageous coverages and situations, you might have a game where it's like Devante gets eight targets one game, eight targets the next. Then he gets 19 targets. then he gets 15 targets just based on teams trying to take away Pukua. I think Adams is going to give you immense spike weeks in this offense, and his floor is very, very high. The only reason to fade Devante in this range is the age, and he showed no signs whatsoever of slowing down last year.
Starting point is 00:35:39 Yeah, and the Marvin Harrison one is really interesting to me because I wouldn't be shocked if he breaks out this year. I just remember going through the fantasy points data numbers, the usage for Marvin Harrison was just not great last year. consistently running goes and post routes, these low volume routes while, you know, when they would throw him the ball on slants, he would win. So maybe they figure something out with Marvin Harrison,
Starting point is 00:36:05 but I'm not a Kyler Murray guy. When I have a player like Tyree Kill, a player like Devonte Adams available here, I'm probably going to click those guys' names first. Okay, so the next one we're sort of going to be splitting hairs because I think if we're ranking quarterbacks, both of these guys are going to be inside of our top three. it's Josh Allen versus Lamar Jackson.
Starting point is 00:36:24 They're going side by side 36, 37 overall. If you had to pick one between these two guys, which a lot of drafters are doing right now, Joe, which way you lean in? Yeah, I'm going to go with Lamar Jackson just ever so slightly because I think, look, I think Buffalo plays Philadelphia in week 17, and I know that's a long way away.
Starting point is 00:36:45 But Philadelphia, I think you could project to have the best defense in the NFL. We saw what they did to the Kansas City Chief. So I'm just, when we're splitting hairs, I'm just going to go with Lamar Jackson. But this is one where I'll lay that hedge down. Oh, if I, if I, maybe if I have Derek Henry in a best ball draft, I'll consolidate all the rushing upside for the Baltimore Ravens offense and just have Henry and Lamar and then maybe I had like a Rashad Bateman a little bit later in my draft. You know, maybe if I got James Cook, who knows what's going to go on with his contract,
Starting point is 00:37:17 but maybe I got him, I'll draft Josh Allen. Oh, I think the bills are easy to stack because Khalil Shakir, I think, is a value on draft boards right now. I can draft Josh Allen, get Shakir a little bit later. These are two really appealing guys for me, actually, in best ball, because they're relatively easy to stack with their wide receivers. This isn't something like, for instance, if you want to stack Joe Burrow, well, you're going to have to draft one of his receivers before Joe Burrow comes off the board and then hope you don't
Starting point is 00:37:48 get sniped on Joe Burrow. With Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, you can kind of draft those guys and say, all right, maybe a round or two later, I'll get Zay Flowers or three rounds. I'll get Khalil Shakir. You know, maybe I can finagle a decent season out of Dalton Kincaid in the double-digit rounds.
Starting point is 00:38:06 That's why I like these guys in a best ball draft because I find them to be relatively easily stackable. And it's really just a matter of how the draft board fell for me. But if I had to pick straight up, it would be Lamar. Yeah, I love your best ball point, and I had the exact same point with Dave Kluge. I had him on this same podcast, and we talked about our favorite picks in each round of underdog. And Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, taking the edge pick at quarterback is really my favorite way to start round three. Occasionally, one of these guys falls into round four as well alongside Jaden Daniels.
Starting point is 00:38:40 When you talk about these guys and stacking them, you could go even a little bit deeper. Rashad Bateman had nine touchdown grabs last year. he's cheap. So I love getting that those correlation plays with these two guys. When it comes down to it, Lamar Jackson outscored Josh Allen last year by a couple of points per game. Josh Allen, when it comes down to it like Josh Allen, we can bet on him completely. He could finish as a QB1. But Lamar Jackson, we feel very strongly that he's going to lead the NFL in rushing yardage. So I get a little bit of an edge there. Lamar had over 900 rushing yards last season. He's unbelievable.
Starting point is 00:39:17 in terms of what he churns out. And why can't the Baltimore Ravens offense be even better this year? It's year three for Todd Munkin. It's year two for Derek Henry. There's a chance this offense even trends up a little bit. And again, splitting here is there for both of those teams because they both average 30 points per game. And by the way, they don't think Derek Henry's done.
Starting point is 00:39:39 No, absolutely not. They just extended him. So like they think there's a lot more in there. Much like Philly still thinks there's a lot more in Sequin Barclays tanks. So that's a really good point there because, yeah, maybe they just run it back. They had a great offense last year. Like, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Maybe some bounces go your way.
Starting point is 00:39:57 Mark Andrews hangs onto a ball and you go to the Super Bowl. So I think Baltimore, I think their offense is a safer bet than Buffalo's, even if Buffalo might have the higher upside. We're going to talk about another running back battle after this quick break. Okay, Joe, we got a fun one here. We're going a little bit later in the draft. We're going into the territory where we have to be a little more careful at running back. I know the dead zone is kind of the traditional dead zone is dead because of the way drafters have steamed up wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:40:30 And for a plethora of other reasons, we've seen plenty of running backs hit from this range. But we also see massive misses out of this range as well. Right now you have three running backs going consecutively to end round four. R.J. Harvey, the rookie in Denver. Alvin Kamara, the veteran in New Orleans, and then Kenneth Walker, heading into his fourth season as a pro, now under a new offensive coordinator in Seattle
Starting point is 00:40:57 with Clint Kubiak taking over the reins. Of which these three are you betting on to have a massive spike season? Yeah, if you subscribe to Fantasy Points, Fantasy Points podcast, you're going to get sick of hearing every member, I think, of this team talk about Kenneth Walker. And look, I think the Zach Charbonnet factor, maybe some of the injuries lean me away from him.
Starting point is 00:41:19 But the fact of the matter is they brought in Clint Kubiak to be the offensive coordinator, and Kenneth Walker is an outstanding fit. Clint Kubiak himself from the Coach Speak Index on Twitter X. Looking forward to him in this scheme, and we're going to ask a lot out of him. He's also got an easy schedule. I believe, per Scott Barrett, he's got the second easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Zach Charbonnet, I think, is kind of like their version of Tyler Algier, just kind of a grinder who can who can come in and give you yardage, but he's not the guy who's going to provide the explosive plays.
Starting point is 00:41:57 He was, per Ryan Heath, he was top six in yards after contact per attempt last season, and he led the league in mistackles force per touch. And when you combine that with an outside zone scheme, which leads basically is asking the running back to find, his hole and then get to the second level, I think that's just an outstanding combination of traits. He's that freelancing type of running back that I think in outside zone is going to provide big plays on a week-to-week basis. Kenneth Walker, by far my favorite pick in this range. And if you're on an underdog draft where, you know, Theo, people are drunk on wide receivers on underdog. They always have been. I think you could come away with Kenneth Walker as your
Starting point is 00:42:40 RB1 in this range and feel pretty damn good about it. a guy with a track record who isn't over 30 like Alvin Camara is, isn't an unknown like R.J. Harvey, give me Kenneth Walker all day long. Yeah, and what's interesting, when we talk about the Clint Kubiak offense is the utilization of the fullback. And you're going to see Kenneth Walker playing alongside a fullback a lot. There's this rumors coming out of Seattle that they're going to use Robbie Oates. I think I'm pronouncing that correctly as their fullback, a six foot three, 275 pounder out of Alabama.
Starting point is 00:43:15 They drafted him. Yeah. And like when you look at him, you bring up the fact that they took him in the fifth round, like he's a monster. Essentially, you're getting another offensive lineman talking about guys like Alec Ingold, talking about guys like Cal Ustich and talking about guys like Pat Ricard, the more of these guys are on the field, it frees up touches for the skill position players.
Starting point is 00:43:37 So I'm absolutely buying Kenneth Walker. And I think that JSN's a little bit underrated right now in terms of what he could give you this season, despite losing some slot usage, just because I think the touches are going to be so consolidated. I love Kenneth Walker, completely with you on this range. Like, we love R.J. Harvey, but Joe, it's getting to a point where it's a hard click because the enthusiasm around him is just so intense among fantasy managers. You know, I remember drafting Alvin Camaro when he was a rookie. and I specifically remember I was doing the are you familiar with the flex leagues that Jake Sealy puts on?
Starting point is 00:44:16 Well, if you look over my left shoulder here, I don't know if you can tell very much, but I have an entire bookcase with championship belts that I've won in the flex leagues. And one of my original championships was Alvin Kamara's rookie year. And I drafted him in the 11th round. And like, you're not getting that with RJ Harvey right now. That's the point I made at the top of the show. the sleeper now is kind of the unsexy veteran. Maybe the sleeper is Jaliel McClockland in Denver or Audric Estime, right?
Starting point is 00:44:44 Like the guy that nobody wants to draft now. Like I like RJ Harvey. I love the fit. That is an expensive price to pay. And just talking about Adam Kamara, go look at his numbers last year when Derek Carr didn't play. Not pretty. I think the Saints could be the worst team in the league this year. This one's easy for me.
Starting point is 00:45:01 Give me Kenny Walker. Yeah. And regarding Kamara, make sure you listen to the. school of Scott where Chris Weck came on. Alvin Kamara still, we're still projecting him to average 16 points per game. I believe we have him to Brown 16.5, but I'm with you, Joe. It's really threading the needle. New Orleans is down another quarterback. Jake Hainer is now banged up as well. So this team is just losing bodies. There's not a single prime time game on the schedule. This could be an absolute mess in New Orleans. Let's talk about the wide receivers being drafted
Starting point is 00:45:31 towards the end of round five. And you start seeing wide receiver clean up, guys who have potential to be a low end wide receiver one, the strong wide receiver two potential. These guys all start getting cleaned up. And you have a cluster of them going in this range. Devontas Smith, Travis Hunter, Cortland Sutton, and Zay Flowers.
Starting point is 00:45:55 And anybody saying, where's Ted McMillan? Ted McMillan has steamed away from this cluster, as I think he should. So it's Smith, Hunter, Sutton, Flowers. Do you have a preference in this range? Now, I'm looking at underdog ADP here, Theo. I know you're looking at FFPC, and I see Devante Smith as underdog at a wide receiver 25.
Starting point is 00:46:14 He's never finished outside the top 20 at wide receiver. What has changed? Nothing. I'm not really sure. And you also look at a guy like, they brought Dallas Goddard back this offseason on a restructured deal, so they're not going to trade him. but Dallas Goddard's had injury problems.
Starting point is 00:46:31 He's missed games most years. And when Dallas Goddard was out last year, Devante Smith was a top eight wide receiver in underdog scoring. So nothing has changed for Devante Smith. It's just, oh, the Eagles are going to run it. AJ Brown's a stud. And he's their number two. So I'm not going to click his name.
Starting point is 00:46:50 And I'm going to click names of guys who might be top 20 receivers. But it's like the family guy bit, right? instead of this boat. Let's look behind door number two. It might even be a boat. That's what I'm seeing with Devante Smith here. You're getting a top 20 receiver, a guy who's never not been one outside of top 20 price.
Starting point is 00:47:10 He's still young. Give me Devante Smith. He's the best bet here. Yeah, he has massive contract insulation. Philadelphia's already paid him. They know what they have in Devontas Smith. Terrific player. I think he's the answer.
Starting point is 00:47:20 I will add that if we're talking about portfolio exposure, there's this Travis Hunter kind of hatred on X right now. he's looked a little loose in a couple of routes he's running. I do want some Travis Hunter exposure in this range because I think that he could have a tremendous amount of touchdown catches, give me spike week potential, but he would be second in this list for me with probably a little bit of a tier between him and Devonta Smith.
Starting point is 00:47:44 Smith is just such an easy click. And if you're structurally drafting here, and you're talking about the end of round five, then having Devonta Smith as your flex, as your wide receiver two, that gives you a lot of strength. And if you have a wide receiver heavy build, having Devante Smith as your wide receiver three, that's a real, real edge to you.
Starting point is 00:48:04 So I love Smith both structurally and for the value that he brings. Let's talk about a pair of tight ends. And in FFPC, this is going to be a little bit different than on Underdog or in NFFC. FFPC, these are tight end premium. So it's a 1.5 points per reception format. So tight ends get a little bit driven up in price. And we have two very enticing ones going back. to back, 74th and 75th overall,
Starting point is 00:48:31 Jonu Smith, Evan Engram. Do you have a preference between the two? Yeah, I said I like Tyreek Hill quite a bit, despite my lack of affinity for Miami this year. I feel like a big winner of the NFL draft was Evan Ingram. We know that the Broncos, Sean Payton's offense, likes to consolidate targets at the tight end position. Now they'll mix it up between multiple tight ends,
Starting point is 00:48:57 but I'm not really all that enthused by Adam Troutman behind Evan Ingram. He's talked about the need for a Joker this offseason. A lot of people are thinking that might be R.J. Harvey. I think there's a chance that Evan Ingram becomes that guy, somebody that can move inside, outside, into the backfield and draw up targets for him. He's a guy who's just been consistently, since he left the New York Giants, he's been a productive player. I know he was hurt last year, but he caught 47 passes in nine games.
Starting point is 00:49:27 you probably want him in a, and this is the key here, in a PPR or tight end premium format, because the guy has an average more than 10 yards per catch in three of his last four seasons. So in a half PPR situation like underdog, that might lean you a little bit to a Jonu Smith. But I think I just prefer Evan Ingram because I have more trust in the offensive environment. Yeah, and I think it's splitting hairs because I agree with a lot of what you said. and when we're just trying to chase tight ends in fantasy, just betting on a tight end who's going to finish as the leading target earner or the second leading target earner on their team,
Starting point is 00:50:05 that's been sort of fantasy cheat code. It's not much more complicated than that. But with Jonu Smith, I feel like I might be leaving a potential spike season on the table. I know Chris Wecht is projecting him to finish as the tight end four overall. And I sort of agree with Chris on this one. John who had this massive breakout in Miami. And I think we finally see a coach and a system that really embraces him for what he is.
Starting point is 00:50:27 Across the board was a tremendous metrics guy last year in pretty much every category. But Joe, he gets red zone targets in this offense. And if to a Tunga Biloa, they want to protect him again with this get the ball out of his hands quickly type approach, where Devon A. Chan and Johnny Smith caught passes a ton of their passes last year on very quick looks. Then we could see Johnny Smith being the best value out of the hill, Trio. But anyway you cut it, I think Smith, there could be potential that this back end of the season spike week production he had just continues and people are like, why didn't I just draft him? But I do think Evan Engram also a good click. And let's finish off with this one.
Starting point is 00:51:09 Last one we're going to talk about, we have a wide receiver cluster going a few picks behind these guys where this is really the chasing upside tier where these guys are being drafted as wide receiver threes with the potential to finish much, much higher. You've got Jordan Addison, who I think maybe the potential because of the off-the-field trial that he's going to have in June, has pushed him down in here. I think he'll rise out of this tier if he goes through that one unscathed. But Jordan Addison, Ricky Purcell, Debo Samuel, now a Washington commander, Calvin Ridley, the wide receiver one in Tennessee, now attached to Cam Ward, and Roma
Starting point is 00:51:46 Dunezay, who's been just falling like a rock in ADP. all in the 77 through 81 range in FFPC, $350 drafts. If you had to bet on one of these five wide receivers, who would it be? Yeah, you mentioned Addison, and I feel like that's the easy way out given some of the offseason. Yeah, I think you're right. Actually, you know what?
Starting point is 00:52:12 Let's remove Jordan Addison from the equation, because I think we'll both say Jordan Addison. So let's look at the other four, Joe. Like, because I think Addison, if you want to just, like, if you're drafting now, just take him. And then if there was a bad legal fallout, you might get stuck holding the bag. But more likely than not, you could see him rise up an entire round. I think he's probably closer to the Zay Flowers argument, the Sutton Zay Flowers tier, than he is this tier if he comes out unscathed.
Starting point is 00:52:39 He was like 15 points per game last year. So let's look at Ricky Purcell, the Ricky Purcell replacement in D. Or excuse me, Ricky Persol replacing Dbo Samuel, Debo Samuel, now a commander, Calvin Ridley in Tennessee, Rome Adunze in Chicago. So two second year players and two guys that are right around that 30-year-old range. So just one quick point on Addison. From week 12 on last year, he averaged over 18 fantasy points per game. He scored more than Amon Ra, St. Brown, and A.J. Brown per game over that span.
Starting point is 00:53:10 So just to realize what kind of upside. Yeah, I know there's a new quarterback, but that's why we're high on Addison. I feel like I'm going to take the boring guy here. I think I'm going to say Calvin Ridley. And maybe it's because I haven't dug into enough of the numbers on Roma Dunzee. I know Ryan Heath has been really going through like a personal crisis in our staff discord talking about a dunze because he's trying to find the angle for him. And I think we're kind of struggling with that. But there might be a really good argument for him.
Starting point is 00:53:38 But the fact of the matter is I'm going to look at Calvin Ridley. I'm going to look at a player who should overwhelmingly be their number one. one target. They brought in two old guys this sauce. He's, oh, the Titans brought in old wide receivers, Theo, Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett. I don't think either one of them is going to contend majorly for targets. We like Elic Iommonor, but he's a rookie and a fourth rounder. Oh, and they probably significantly upgraded at quarterback by getting Cam Ward. So I'm going to go with Calvin Ridley, who should overwhelmingly be the number one target in Tennessee. He's a boring pick, but I think this is a boring pick that could be somebody who's a stalwart in your lineup. He might not be driving the
Starting point is 00:54:19 bus to the fantasy championship, but he's one of the wheels on it. And you can't drive a bus without wheels, man. And I think Calvin Ridley is going to fit that bill for me in this range. That's going to be a popular click for me, even if it's not one that feels great at the time. I actually completely agree with you. And I wanted to try to make an argument for Ricky Persol, an argument for Roma Dunzee. I'm usually chasing upside in this range. But I actually think there's a little bit of upside when it comes to Ridley because he was hyper utilized. We've heard Brian Callahan talk about him being the Jamar Chase in his offense. And now we have a significant quarterback upgrade.
Starting point is 00:54:55 And I do think Cam Ward is going to be a significant quarterback upgrade. But when we're talking about Ridley, Ridley had 256 targets over the last two seasons. If he just stays in that 130 target range, I think we could see Ridley being this year as Cortland Sutton, a guy that really beats ADP. We saw it last year with McLaurin. We saw it last year with Sutton, where you get a rookie quarterback coming in, hyper-targeting their number one option,
Starting point is 00:55:21 and a veteran wide receiver really benefits from this change in offensive ecosystem and ends up having a significant ADP win. I think Calvin Ridley could be a top 20 wide receiver this year alongside Cam Ward. Yeah, I think that's just the best analysis you can have. Like, yeah, Cam Ward isn't like this generational guy, like, or people haven't talked about him as such. Maybe he turns out to be that way. And let's talk about potentially the upside of Cam Ward. What if he is really good?
Starting point is 00:55:52 What if, you know, nobody talked about it. They didn't even talk about him when he got drafted because they were so fixated on Shedert Sanders. What if Cam Ward is really good? And Calvin Ridley, we know he's a professional receiver. It might not be sexy. It might not be Jamar Chase, the way, you know, Brian Callahan was talking. But what if he catches 85?
Starting point is 00:56:10 five passes. I mean, I think that's what the Titans are essentially counting on. Give me, Calvin Ridley in this range, I think is kind of a steal. Absolutely. Joe, this was so much fun today. Let everyone know once again what you have coming out. Yeah, so we, Tom Broly, myself and Good Friend Trey, do the Best Betts podcast. We do that every Thursday, but we're going to start ramping that up closer to the season. We're going to do that multiple times a week and talk about different things. We're currently talking about futures right now and having a lot of fun with that. I'm obviously editing everything that goes up at FantasyPoints.com. And also, Sirius XM show will return July 7th.
Starting point is 00:56:50 The current plan is from 7 to 8 a.m. And I hope to see or hear from everybody in that regard. Yeah, check out all of our podcasts. Check out our YouTube channel that just went north of 15,000 subscribers and all of the great articles and tools we have over at FantasyPoint.com. And sick with us here at Fantasy Football Daily. If you love this pod, got more pods like this coming out. out. We're going to help you crush your fantasy football leagues this season. Have a great
Starting point is 00:57:13 Memorial Day weekend.

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