Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Football Daily: Sleepers, Steals & Situational Breakouts for 2025 Drafts w/ Ryan Heath

Episode Date: August 8, 2025

Use code SCOREMORE10 at checkout for 10% OFF any subscription. Dominate your league. Win more bets. Level up your game Which mid-round WRs offer upside despite murky outlooks? We debate Chris Olav...e vs Jakobi Meyers vs Rome Odunze vs Jerry Jeudy vs Stefon Diggs — and why Olave may quietly explode under Kellen Moore. Plus, sleeper alerts for Emeka Egbuka and Ricky Pearsall, breakout TE battles (Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Tyler Warren), and touchdown-chasing RBs like Jordan Mason vs Brian Robinson. Scott and Theo discuss ideal RB stashes (Pollard vs Spears, Skattebo vs Tracy), WR risers like Jordan Addison and Jayden Reed, and whether Jaylen Warren could still deliver despite Kaleb Johnson buzz. We also break down Green Bay’s Round 8 dilemma (Reed vs Golden vs Kraft) and debate how much risk you should tolerate with Joe Mixon or Chris Godwin in 2025 drafts. Fantasy Football Daily brings you sharp analysis, breakout picks, and sneaky upside bets to win your league. Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath ⁠ Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Podcast Transcription Here: Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #FantasyFootball #2025Rankings #DaveKluge #RB1 #WR1 #QB1 #TE1 #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:00 Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Greminger. Continuing my series where we're talking optimal draft strategy round by round. Check out round two with Faraz Siddiqui. Mike Shope joined me for rounds three and rounds four. And Jim Coventry of Rotowire joined me recently for rounds five and round six. Today I'm joined by a repeat guest, Ryan Heath, also of fantasy points. Ryan, I brought you in for this round. these two rounds. And it's funny, round seven and rounds eight, these are rounds where drafters
Starting point is 00:01:42 sometimes overlook. But there's been so many players that have come out of these rounds that have been huge hits for us in fantasy football in recent memory. The big Josh Jacobs year on the Raiders, he was sometimes falling all the way to round seven, ends up being a top three running back a couple of years back. Last year, we had a ton of wide receivers hitting in this range of drafts where you had, I believe it was four wide receivers finishing as top 15 scores at the position, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Cortland Sutton, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., all going in that like round seven, round eight, ADP, sometimes a little bit later with some of those rookie wide receivers. But round seven and rounds eight, it's just there's so many upside plays.
Starting point is 00:02:33 They can't all hit. But I feel like there's a lot of dangerous players on this show sheet that we're going to discuss today. What's your general vibes with some of this range of drafts this year? Yeah, it's kind of interesting because you're right. Like when you look back on previous years, this is a range where you can definitely find difference making players. But whenever I'm actually in a draft room and I get to this range, I'm like, oh, this
Starting point is 00:02:58 is kind of gross. Like this is the range where I stopped being all that confident about a lot of these profiles. But I do think we should probably take that as a signal of like, hey, this is the place to attack upside especially, to not worry too much about the forecase of all of these players. Because, look, ultimately,
Starting point is 00:03:18 if you're round seven or round eight pick is a little bit of a bust or doesn't contribute all that much, your team can overcome that. But yeah, what you really, really want is to hit on one of those handful of mega values that we see every year. Yeah, I mean, you nailed it. And it's not, and the mega values, we love hitting on those. But Ryan, I will say that just getting a consistent wide receiver two, getting a consistent weekly flex out of this range of drafts, very, very important and sometimes overlooked. Drafters get through like the first six rounds.
Starting point is 00:03:54 They oftentimes prepare for it. And I think just from a big picture perspective, Ryan, your article was fantastic. Scott Barrett's articles dropping very soon sort of on draft strategy. But a lot of drafters, I think a lot of inexperienced drafters, will spend just so much time concentrating on the first round, the second round, the third round, the fourth round, the fifth round, like these micro decisions between players that are all ranked extremely highly. And instead, they should be focusing on extracting value.
Starting point is 00:04:27 in this range of drafts. I'll give a shout out to Sean Siegel, RotoViz, was always talking about, like, sort of identifying the best picks very late and sort of working backwards in your draft preparation. And I think that's a really good way of looking at it. And certainly I think we're going to help you out in determining some of the best upside bets
Starting point is 00:04:46 you can make in this range. I'm going to reference a lot of FFPC ADP in this range. I think that the one difference between this and like Underdog is a lot of the wide receivers I'm going to reference. that are like seventh and eighth round picks in redraft. Oftentimes you're going a little bit earlier in best ball. And then certainly if you're in a league where it's not tight end premium scoring, some of the tight ends we're going to discuss on this show.
Starting point is 00:05:09 You don't really have to worry about necessarily in this range of drafts, but it's still beneficial to your process. Let's go ahead and start out right at the top. The beginning of the seventh round in a lot of leagues right now, it's sort of a mixture of upside wide receiver plays. And a lot of these bad offense, quote unquote, bad offense wide receiver ones. And the bad offense wide receiver ones, the perception of this is going to be a bad offense, I don't trust the quarterback, therefore I don't want to chase the wide receiver one.
Starting point is 00:05:43 Over the years, this has been a source of fantasy football production. Oftentimes people overlook just the sheer volume and usage these sort of players can have. So we'll start out with a pretty difficult question here. Chris Ilave, who, Ryan, for multiple years we were taking an elevated like two, three turn type pick at times a second round pick in high stakes drafts. Jacoby Myers, who's just been an incredibly steady player throughout his career and now is in a really good opportunity to sort of fill a Tyler Lockett-like role in a Pete Carroll led team. Myers is in a really kind of like a he's viewed as sort of a safe pick, but that's. there's potentially some upside to discuss. Roma Dunzei, who last year had sort of a catastrophic year,
Starting point is 00:06:33 but a top 10 draft capital player and should have some elevated opportunities with Ben Johnson taking over that offense. And certainly there should be a much more functional product on the field in Chicago this year. Stefan Diggs in your neck of the woods matriculating as a New England Patriot, some positive buzz with him currently with Pat's beat reporters. and then Jerry Judy, who finished last year as the wide receiver 12 overall in counting stats, not weekly points per game, but certainly a renaissance for Jerry Judy in his first year as a Cleveland Brown after being sort of a bust for many seasons of his career after being a first round pick.
Starting point is 00:07:15 So I threw out a big collection of wide receivers. All of these guys are getting drafted sort of as strong wide receiver three types, high-end wide receiver threes. where are you leaning if you had to pick one of them? Yeah, if I am taking one of these, it's actually going to be Chris Olavé for me. I kind of, to your point earlier, I do think that he can be kind of the safe flex floor type of guy in, let's be honest, in probably most universes, most versions of the 2025 season. But yeah, I mean, all it takes is for the Saints to surprise us a little bit for Tyler Shuck specifically. to surprise us as a competent passer. And if that's the case, if the Saints can move the ball,
Starting point is 00:08:01 then Olavé becomes really, really interesting with new head coach, Kellyn Moore. So the thing about Moore is he has always been kind of ahead of the curve at adopting motion and shift as the NFL has done that over the past four or five years. Moore has always been kind of above average or near the top of motion and shift usage. We have seen him use C.D. Lamb and Keenan Allen as the motion man in 2022 and 2023. Both of those wide receivers in those years led the NFL in PPR fantasy points scored as the motion man. And to me, OLAV is the most obvious beneficiary of this. Shehid certainly could as well.
Starting point is 00:08:46 But over his career, OLAV averages over 2.7 yards per outrun on all, dropbacks that contain motion or shift. That would have ranked top five last year among all players in yards for outrun. So I think it's really interesting with Olavé. Moore has also always operated at a pretty fast pace. We can expect the Saints team to run a lot of plays at the very least. So yeah, Olavé is kind of clearly my favorite of this group. Yeah, it's a group where I don't have really like a complete all-out phase.
Starting point is 00:09:23 I'll say that with this elevated ADP, I kind of, let me adjust my answer. With this elevated ADP, I think I'm out on Stefan Diggs because I just don't see him returning exceptional value in this range of drafts. Alave, your answer is very nuanced. It's very well researched. I think that there's potential value. I know Jared Smola of draft sharks also very, very high on Alave's potential usage. I do worry a little bit about this offense just being stuck in the money.
Starting point is 00:09:53 this year. There's reports that Spencer Rattler is going to see some starts this year. Tyler Shuck, I can just envision tucking his head down and like trying to run for and overcompensate for his lack of quality with a lot of rushing yardage. So I kind of get it. I think based on sort of if we're looking for a very safe play in this range, it might be Jacoby Myers because I just think Myers is a little bit underrated in his role where Brock Bowers is going to handle about as much as he can handle offensively. Ashton Genty's going to get a ton of touches. But Jacoby Myers, I just can't see failing in like a functional offense.
Starting point is 00:10:33 And Ryan, if this is a, and I think you've alluded to it, Scott Barrett certainly has, not an anti-Bowers take, but a Bowers struggling to sort of hit his ADP, which I don't agree with, but there's some really smart people on your side of the fence here, then I think this would be a Myers is a natural hedge. there. So for me, I think the safe play is Myers. I'll say if I'm swinging for the fences, Alave, Adunze, those guys make a lot of sense. And if I knew it was Joe Flacco for 10 starts, I could make a case for Jerry Judy. So I basically said all of these guys are interesting picks. Curious your recent thoughts on Adunzee before we move off this subject, because I think there's a lot of
Starting point is 00:11:20 polarization here where people are very much trying to attack the Chicago offense. And they're sort of taking a shot on one of four guys now, Luther Bird in late, Colston Loveland, who I know you're very, very high on. We've talked about him on previous podcasts. And then the DJ Moore, Jim Coventry was very high on DJ Moore at ADP. There's also a segment of people sort of very much on a dunzee. And a dunzee could take this big step forward this year. just your case for Adunzei, your case against the Dunesay at this sort of seventh round price tag.
Starting point is 00:11:55 Yeah, I mean, the case for him, and I do think that now that this is the ADP, it makes a little sense to it to think about the case for him where I was not even entertaining it earlier in the summer. The obvious case for him is, okay, there's even, there's more than an outside chance that O'Doonsay is currently the best receiver on the Bears roster. He was drafted very high. He was a highly touted prospect. Not a very impressive worky season from a statistical perspective,
Starting point is 00:12:24 but that can be easily explained away by that entire offense. And Caleb Williams specifically being just awful, especially when targeting O'Donzee on the outside, just in terms of catchable target rate. So you can definitely paint a picture where O'Donzee is just the best player on a good offense, and he's being underrated by the market, and he kind of hits as a top 18-ish receiver and overtakes DJ more. I do think there's a world where that happens.
Starting point is 00:12:57 But yeah, for me, the case against him is, look, all of the intrigue generally around Ben Johnson's offense is who is going to be getting the slot role, right? Because that has proven time and time again to be so insanely very. valuable in his offense from Jarvis Landry all the way up to recently Aminara St. Brown. And two, we know for a fact now that O'Donzei is not going to be playing really any slot. There was a clip out a few days ago of Ben Johnson talking about how like very complimentary of O'Donzee, don't get me wrong, but it was all about well, I see him as a prototypical X receiver that we just line up on the outside.
Starting point is 00:13:39 And as long as he gets one on one, then he can go win. his matchups out there and you can throw to him on the outside. And that might be exciting on other teams, but that that is just not where the NFL is currently headed. You have to be so insanely alpha elite to win in that way. You have to be A.J. Brown. You have to be Nico Collins to be a major fantasy contributor kind of without any of that extra help that comes schematically from being in the slot, being on those in breaking routes over the middle of the field. So, yeah, to me, O'Donzei is, it makes some sense as like an upside swing, but there are, I just much, much prefer drafting the cheaper bears, the Loveland, the Luther Burdens that have a shot to
Starting point is 00:14:26 be seeing a lot of that slot usage, at least in part. We're going to take a quick break. We come back. We're going to talk about another wide receiver who is going to potentially break the door down and join this group of players in this tier. And that's Ricky Purcell, one of the early training camp winners out of San Francisco. camp. Welcome back. Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Greminger with Ryan Heath. Ryan, you've been dropping awesome articles all offseason long. What do you have coming out next? Yeah, so either right when
Starting point is 00:14:57 this show is out or soon after, it'll be on Friday, August, whatever that is, August 8th. I have 2025's new play callers all broken down for fantasy football with all the implications. This is a very popular article that Scott Barrett did last year. He's thrown it over to me this year. A lot of cool takeaways from all of these teams that are changing it up at Playcaller. I do think it's one of the biggest edges you can have in fantasy is to be on top of this stuff. So, yeah, I'll be sharing a few of the stats from it throughout this show. But yeah, highly recommend everyone go check that out at FantasyPoints.com.
Starting point is 00:15:38 So, Ryan, we also write these brain trust articles, which have just been awesome, where it's multiple fantasy points, writers as well as podcasters, kind of joining together and collectively answering fantasy football's biggest questions. And I thought there was an interesting takeaway in our breakout wide receiver article. And that was by Tom Brawley saying Ricky Purcell could be this year's Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. And certainly very different players. Tom's take was not that this is going to be like 80% slot usage for Ricky Purcell or something like that.
Starting point is 00:16:11 it was a ADP hit, a second year player who failed to hit out the gate as a rookie flashed but didn't really deliver and then had a huge production leap in year two. The two of us earlier in the offseason, we talked extensively about how we were both very, very bullish on Joanne Jennings. Jennings has been dealing with a calf injury, and it seems like a really annoying one because this was an injury apparently that he's been dealing with all off season. It's sort of a reaggravation. He's been missing a lot of training camp.
Starting point is 00:16:44 And sort of with Jennings off the field, there's been nothing but, like, praise from these San Francisco beat reporters on Purcell. Purcell, obviously a first round pick in 2024, had two really big games to end the year in week 17 and week 18. Incredible athlete. One of Brett Whitefield's favorite prospects in that 2024 class. I'm sort of really getting in on getting some Ricky Purcell exposure in this range of drafts. I think it could absolutely happen.
Starting point is 00:17:15 And Ryan, over the years we've seen San Francisco wide receivers take massive leaps forward in production. Go back to Debo Samuel year two. You go back to Brandon Ayuk when he had his big breakout season. Like it's usually like a very rapid ascension for these Kyle Shanahan wide receivers. I think we could see it with Purcell this year. As we move along to the end of August, I might like him more than a lot of the guys we just talked about. And I don't think this was going to be my answer six weeks ago. Your thoughts on Purcell. Yeah. So, I mean, there's two things I'll concede right up front. Number one is, yeah, it does matter to me, obviously, that Brett Whitefield likes him. I hold Brett's opinions on wide receiver
Starting point is 00:17:59 prospecting in very high regard. So that that is definitely a piece that can't be entirely ignored. And the other thing I'll immediately concede is, yes, Kyle Shanahan, I'm convinced, can kind of just, more so than any other coordinator in the NFL can just kind of pick a guy and say, okay, we're going to feed you targets in fantasy production now and it will actually work. Very rarely does that happen anywhere else in the league where a coach can just decide, oh, this player is now going to get the most production in the highest target share. For whatever reason, Kyle Shanahan just has his like hands on the levers much more closely of, his passing offense than pretty much anyone else. So, yes, there is definitely a world where Shanhan is like, you know what, Ricky Pearcel is who we're going to feature now.
Starting point is 00:18:48 And it's actually going to show up in the stat sheet. But with all that said, I'm still not really a Pear Saul believer. Your good point that, yeah, Jennings obviously missing time is hurt right now. It's a little bit concerning. Persol has missed a lot of time over his two years in the NFL now. I obviously missed all of preseason last year with the gunshot wound and a lot of the beginning of the season. He missed all of OTAs earlier this summer. So to me, I don't think you can really make any argument that, oh, Peresol is going to be more up to speed in what this offense wants to do than Joanne Jennings.
Starting point is 00:19:28 Regardless of how much time Jennings misses in this preseason, I don't think anything there necessarily changes. So, yeah, I'm still going with my take of, look, Joanne was top 10 in the NFL and basically every pro-rout sat last year, yards per outrun, first down's for outrun. He was amazing in average separation score. He played really well. I just think the most likely thing here, the most likely outcome is still that Joanne kind of alphas all of the other receivers in this room, obviously aside from George Gittle.
Starting point is 00:20:00 But yeah, I am a little more willing to entertain Ricky Pearceol than I was a month or two ago. but to me it's still most likely going to be Jennings that is leading the way here. Yeah, I get it. And I think this enthusiasm for Purcell doesn't close the door on Jennings because it's a cheap double bet. I don't think it's even out of the question for drafters to take a Ricky Purcell in round seven and then as he falls, take a Juan Jennings in round eight, especially if he misses more time this preseason. and you're in leagues that are a little bit more risk-averse. And I'll say Jennings is a perfect player to keep an eye on in home league settings
Starting point is 00:20:43 because people don't want to believe in what they saw last year. He's being sort of treated like a waiver wire pickup who hit well as opposed to a guy that has a real connection with Brock Purdy. So for me, I think it's a great double bet. And I agree that George Kittle is by far the alpha that you want in the offense. He's a great click, you know, in, in round and around two in FFPC and round four in leagues like NFFC on underdog. We both talked about how valuable he could be potentially.
Starting point is 00:21:15 But he's also a cap targets player throughout his career. Even if it increases a little bit, let's say he gets 15% target boost this year because of the inexperienced at the wide receiver position. You're still talking about 110 target George Kittle, which we would be thrilled about Ryan after him being like a 95 target guy. So Purcell, Brett Whitefield made this point that personal has a lot of the same traits that made Brandon IUC extremely successful, can run a lot of the IUC routes and can also absorb a lot of the Debo Samuel manufactured touches around the line of scrimmages, around the line of scrimmage because of his athleticism and his burst. So for me, I think personal has multiple outs. And like you said, Kyle Shanahan is able to scheme his guys open.
Starting point is 00:22:01 he's a coach that plays a lot of favorites, and the vibes right now are Ricky Purcell vibes. We'll take one more quick break. We come back. We're going to talk about a tight end ADP decision for tight end premium managers. All right, welcome back. Ryan, this is a question for specifically for tight end premium managers. We see a tier of tight ends here. And occasionally this tier of tight ends can include Evan Engram.
Starting point is 00:22:28 But more and more often I'm seeing Engram. go inside of round six in like FFPC leagues. And we're seeing Mark Andrews, who's moved up since Isaiah likely went down with an injury. Andrews is sort of living near the beginning of round seven. Right near him is David Anjoku. We talked about Judy. And Joku is the other Brown that I think drafters
Starting point is 00:22:50 are still pretty enthusiastically drafting. And then Tyler Warren, who nothing but positive vibes in Indianapolis about Tyler Warren, Unlike Colston Loveland, I think that there's less target competition. With all respect to Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, there's just one kind of fewer guy despite lower passing volume. Tyler Warren sort of has this added benefit where he's going to get, according to the Colts beat reporters, and also his tape from Penn State, he's going to get some level, whether it's just a few or whether it's 25. manufactured rush attempts this year. So a little bit of Tase some hill to him as well,
Starting point is 00:23:35 which gives us a little bit of unknown upside. If you had to pick one player between Andrews and Joku and Tyler Warren, who would it be? Yeah, I'm pretty easily picking In Joku of the three. I still, I think Tyler Warren is a strong pick. I think Andrews is at least interesting with the likely injury, but Injoku is still clearly my favorite of this tier. But just look at the first.
Starting point is 00:23:59 production last season, like eight and a half targets per game, 14.7 expected fantasy points per game in 2024. That's just with PPR scoring, obviously, tight end premium adds to that even more. Both of those stats ranked behind only Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. You're taking him many rounds later. This is common between all of the guys that we're discussing right now, but one of the biggest things I found in anatomy of a league winner was it really matters for tight ends that they don't have multiple other pass catchers going high in drafts. That applies to Injoku. Really only Jerry Judy is kind of anywhere in the realm of a top six, top seven round player. So that's a nice little bonus. Joe Flacco, it sounds like right now is the favorite to start
Starting point is 00:24:51 in week one. And, oh, yeah, and Joku scored 18.4 PPR points per game with him back in 2020. I'm sure it was even more in tight-end premium. That was more than any tight end, his average other than Travis Kelsey at any point over the last handful of seasons. And a kind of fun little angle from the Playcaller's article that you should go
Starting point is 00:25:15 check out is the Brown's new OC is Tommy Reese. and when he was coaching in college, he coached Michael Mayer and Tommy Trembal in Trembl's final year in college. They combined for a 25% target share. And so a very tight end centric offense. That was despite other NFL talent being on that roster, Kyron Williams and Ben Scoronic were both there as well. Kieran and Scoronic both did way more in the NFL than either Trembl or Mayor have done so far, got both of them day two draft. draft capital. The next two seasons, Michael Mayer, had a 23% and a 32% target share. If Reese has kind of any influence over this offense, obviously with Kevin Stefansky,
Starting point is 00:26:01 continuing to call the shots, but if there's any influence there, this could be even more tight end centric of an offense. And that makes it really, really exciting for David and Joku. And the volume, the production has already been so amazing. Really, your only concern is what if the Browns just don't function as an offense. They're implied for the fewest points per game of any team. But what they're implied for, I think it's like 18 and a half points per game or something like that, multiple points per game more than they scored last year when Injoku was still awesome.
Starting point is 00:26:33 So, yeah, Injoku's been a big conviction play for me all summer. Yeah, he's a clear target here in this range. Yeah, and Injoku, for me, it's the same argument. And if we look at the last two seasons in the NFL, David and Jokouki, is third behind Travis Kelsey and Trey McBride in the most targets at the tight end position in two seasons combined. Just an elite target earner. Also, you factor in that Njoku's missed a lot of time. On a targets per game basis over the last two years, he trails only Travis Kelsey.
Starting point is 00:27:07 The one thing I don't like about Njoku, and I think in Joku, again, if we get Joe Flacco, he's going to absolutely smash this. He could end up leading Cleveland in targets. He could end up being top four tight end score. There's two things I don't like. And it's not a reason to fade him. It's just things I want to keep in drafter's minds. It's the potential for a like a revolving door quarterback situation where Cleveland legitimately wants to get a look at Shadur Sanders,
Starting point is 00:27:40 wants to get a look at Dylan Gabriel, Joe Flacco is Joe Flacco. He's extremely old. He's had a really nice run in Cleveland. The vibes are there where I think all the veterans want him there. Clearly, if Joe Flacco was there the whole year, the David Injoku argument is a really strong one. The other thing that I talked about with Brett Whitefield,
Starting point is 00:28:02 that also sort of has Brett a little bit worried about Injoku as well is Harold Fanon Jr., by all Beat Reporter accounts, is going to be on the field a ton. Now, we don't know what that means. Does that mean that he's going to be playing some slot snaps as like a sort of a big wide receiver? Do we know that that's going to be there in 12 personnel a lot? But at the end of the day, Harold Fanon Jr. was an elite target earner. Again, Fanon is extremely young.
Starting point is 00:28:29 He's not going to leapfrog in Joku in production here. But it's just something to keep in the back of your mind where could he take away a certain percentage from like the ceiling case for Injoku? because we're already getting sort of the bad offense vibes. So the touchdowns could be limited for the offense as a whole. So we're really banking on like Enjoku being a kind of a PPR merchant at the tight end position in a good way. He's a big time athlete as a potential for big explosive plays. So again, I'm in on Enjoku, but I'm not as in as I was a month ago with this fan and kind of news. I'll say neither one of us seemed that enthusiastic about Mark Anfran.
Starting point is 00:29:11 at this range of drafts. I'm sure there's other people. I know there's other people of fantasy points that are way more enthusiastic about Andrews. I just feel like with Andrews, you have Isaiah likely coming back from injury. Andrews last year, a lot of his scoring was touchdown driven, something I don't think we can necessarily bank on. And I think likely, like all the coach speak with like Harbaugh saying he wants likely to be a pro ball, all pro level. He didn't even say pro or said all pro level player and also likely he's about to get a Jake Ferguson-esque contract. So for me, like, Andrews might get you off to a pretty quick start, but I don't think he'll necessarily be the one who gets you to a quick finish. Tyler Warren, to me, though, really,
Starting point is 00:29:52 really interesting play in this range, especially in tight end premium, where you're most likely not just drafting a tight end. You're drafting a few tight ends. I think Warren, like, it's a range of outcomes guy, but a lot of those range of outcomes could be really, really high one. So sort of with you on your Injoko response, but I've also, I think, a little more enthusiastic about Warren. And I agree with you that you can just wait about a round or two and take yourself some Colston Loveland. Although I have seen him go recently, Ryan, inside a round seven in some of these FFPC main events. Usually it was safe. You knew you're going to get Loveland in like round eight, round nine, but he's starting to creep up as the summer moves along. Let's talk about a
Starting point is 00:30:35 running back decision. So we've really been focusing on the wide receiver and the tight end position because I think that's where the values sort of lie in this range of drafts. But we have sort of two appealing running back thesis picks that I could kind of sell you on. Jordan Mason in Minnesota is going almost side by side with Brian Robinson in Washington. With Robinson, we sort of know what he is, but we're so enthusiastic. about Washington as a whole offensively. There's been some sort of making the bull case for Robinson could have his best scoring year touchdown-wise, playing alongside Jaden Daniels.
Starting point is 00:31:16 It's also year two of the Cliff Kingsbury scheme. Jordan Mason's been a guy that I've sort of been pounding the table for. Minnesota has a very good offensive line, a great tight end two blocker and Josh Oliver. Mason, we saw him have three out of his first four weeks last year, finishes as an RB1, including two top five weeks with Christian McCaffrey out. I think he's going to have the goal line role in Minnesota, and then he has the contingent upside that if Aaron Jones misses time, Mason, I think would just be an absolute stud.
Starting point is 00:31:48 Curious, if you were looking to chase running back between these two players, who do you think has the best potential outcome between Mason and Robinson? Yeah, so first I'll say I'm largely in this range of drafts. I'm not looking to chase running back. And the reason for that is, and Mason and Robinson are kind of the two perfect examples of this, is unless you are in a build where you really, really need just guaranteed points in your RB2 spot, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me to draft kind of this tier of running backs because they are, I kind of view them as the most expensive handcuffs in a way.
Starting point is 00:32:30 obviously both Mason and Robinson are going to have some sort of standalone value, but it's not going to be really anything above replacement level unless one of their backfield mates gets injured, right? So yeah, for me, not a range. I'm targeting a lot. I will give a slight preference to Brian Robinson. And the reason for that is I think Jordan Mason is like a total zero in the passing game. Robinson is up at whatever it is, like one and a half receptions a game last year.
Starting point is 00:33:04 So that's a little bit of an extra boost. I would give the commanders the slight edge to be the better offense. I think with recent reporting, I think J.J. McCarthy is also a threat to steal Russian touchdowns at the goal line. But in a similar way to Jane and Daniels, where McCarthy himself has been very clear about, yeah, I'm going to be a weapon there. So, yeah, I'll give a slight edge to Robinson here. I think he has a little bit more upside to be like a full-blown bell cow in the event of an Austin Echlor injury. But, yeah, I mean, overall, both these guys are kind of gross to me.
Starting point is 00:33:47 And I'm trying to build my team so that I am able to either take advantage of the bona fide belcow upside that the guys going above them have. or to take a lot of shots on the cheaper contingent bets that go well below them. Yeah, I'm a big Jacori-Krosky merit bet this year where I think he's going to have a number of usable weeks in Washington. I think it's a it's sort of like a foregone conclusion to me that I'm going to be writing about him in some sort of a waiver-wire article talking about him a waiver-wire podcast. I think he's really good. I'm more Mason over B-Rob.
Starting point is 00:34:22 You talked about like Robinson can catch passes. He did it in year two. but the presence of Austin Echler sort of keeps him from kind of having that role. With Mason, San Francisco didn't pass to him. And I realize he doesn't really have a sample size of it. But like with Mason, I think he's, I think he's not Aaron Jones dependent. He had nine rushes over 20 yards last year on only 153 carries. That was the fifth highest of anyone in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:34:53 And he had a 24.2 first. down conversion rate. So he's just been really good. Ryan, he hasn't had a single season where he's had fewer than 5.2 yards per carry. I just think they have a plan for Jordan Mason. And I think we could see him take the next step here. So I'm Mason over Robinson. Quickly, there's two players that go a little bit earlier than these guys. And more and more, we're seeing Isaiah Pacheco sneak into round six. But for all intensive purposes, if you're Isaiah Pacheco versus Tony Pollard, sort of like, the very beginning of round seven and you want to chase a running back in that range.
Starting point is 00:35:31 Who are you on on that decision? You can also say just kind of pass. No, I do feel pretty strongly about this one. I was arguing with Scott Barrett about this yesterday when we were hammering out his final redraft rankings. I'm team Tony Pollard here. So for me, both of these guys are likely to be like 80% of a bell cow, right? So not quite in on every down,
Starting point is 00:35:57 getting some touches around the edges taken away from them by Kareem Hunt or by Tajay Spears. But what puts Pollard kind of over the edge for me is that I think where Pollard's likely to come off the field is largely in between the 20s. But with Pacheco, I really think Kareem Hunt is a threat specifically at the goal line. So with Pollard, and it's kind of weird, like, oh, we're making a touchdown, like offensive environment bet on the Titans over the Chiefs. Really, Ryan, that's what you're telling me.
Starting point is 00:36:28 And that is kind of what I'm telling you here. The most recent reporting we've gotten from Graziano the other day is that Taji Spears is kind of expected to be slightly more involved in last year, maybe like around 100 carries compared to 84 last season. But to me, that's pretty bullish for Pollard, just because I expect the Titans to be so much better and more efficient this year, leading to so many more touchdowns. Pollard averaged almost 20 fantasy points per game in games that the Titans won last season, which is kind of an insane stat.
Starting point is 00:37:04 Obviously, they didn't win that many games. In a lot of games, their offense was just completely non-functional with Will Levis. But we have seen head coach Brian Callahan get really good production out of basically every quarterback he's ever worked with other than Will Levis. And that includes names like Jake Brown. who averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game in 2023 at the end of the season. The Titans were seventh in passing yards per game in games that Mason Rudolph played last season, which is insane.
Starting point is 00:37:35 They were dead last in games with Will Levis. So I really think if Cam Ward is anywhere close to halfway mediocre competent, then this offense is actually going to be a lot better than people expect. And Pollard is the primary beneficiary. of that. He's the one that's benefiting at the goal line over Spears, over Pacheco over on the Chiefs. So, yeah, Pollard has kind of always been for the entire summer my conviction call in this range, and he remains that way. I, you know, I don't mind either of them if you're really trying to play catch up, but I do think that for me, Tijey Spears is going to be a real thorn in the side of Tony
Starting point is 00:38:18 Pollard. I think that's what they wanted last year, but they were just so limited offensively, and then Spears dealt with all those injuries. We saw Spears have a really strong end of the year. He had three consecutive RB1 finishes, weekly finishes to finish the season. We know he can catch the football. So I don't hate Pollard. I think he's fine structurally. I've taken him in a number of drafts, but I also think the threat of Spears is there. With Pacheco, I get the argument for taking him because the volume, I think, is going to be there for him earlier in the year. So I don't know. For this, I agree with you.
Starting point is 00:38:57 There's other ways I'd like to go with this pick, but I don't necessarily hate either one of them. But I do think Spears is a little bit more of a threat to Pollard than I think you do. I think Spears could be a weekly thing. We did our, we're doing our brain trust zero RB article. And I included Tai J Spears. And I took him, I took him in a draft actually this week in an. FFPC 350 and I'm like, am I suddenly becoming a Taije Spears guy in the last month?
Starting point is 00:39:24 I mean, Ryan, strange things happen. And with the Titans, you talk about that offense taking off this year. And nobody's really stacking that week 17 game for them in best ball. That's the New Orleans Saints versus Tennessee Titans. But you could potentially build a really fun Cam Ward stack. Cam Ward is continually being drafted as a QB3. and if Ryan's argument comes true, Tony Pollard's sort of an easy way to stack with him.
Starting point is 00:39:53 If you want to stack him with my guy, Tai J Spears, go ahead and do that. And Calvin Ridley is right there. Maybe go with Ryan's Chris Alave play. Ryan, very quickly, two players we're not going to spend a whole lot of time talking about, but have fallen to this range of drafts. And sometimes later, you're seeing Chris Godwin and Joe Mixin both dealing with injuries at sort of the wrong time of the year. drafters are being very risk averse here with these two players and really like trying to
Starting point is 00:40:23 stay away from them, I feel like. It's a, they're, excuse me, they're trying to stay away from like the risky element of drafting sort of an older player that's banged up. With Mixin, you've got Woody Marks behind them. Nick Chub reports are coming out that he's sort of looking pretty good in training camp. And with Tampa Bay, there's just a million pass catchers. What is your risk tolerance with Chris Godwin and Joe Mixon. Do you want to have any exposure to them? So with Godwin, just quickly, the answer is no. The answer has kind of been no on him for me since I watched what his ankle did live in that game. The kind of medical reports have gone from positive to negative to positive and now back to negative. Yeah, just for me, and this is
Starting point is 00:41:06 extremely unscientific. I'm not a doctor or whatever, but yeah, when your whole foot is pointing the wrong way. I'm probably not going to draft two next year is kind of all it comes down do for me. With Mixon, it's a bit different, though. Yes, Mixon obviously has an extensive injury history. The foot is very concerning. But the difference here is that Joe Mixon can be a pretty big fantasy football hit just by getting a lot of volume and being inefficient on it, right, which is kind of what we saw him do, especially in the second half of last year after he came back from injury. That's not really the case with Godwin. His upside case is, oh, he has to be in this buck's offense.
Starting point is 00:41:48 It's going to be efficient and score a lot of touchdowns and be near the top of the league and yards brought out of the slot. To me, that's just very, that's way less likely than, oh, Joe Mixin is actually fine. He kind of holds up. Maybe he misses a game or two at the start of the year. But he comes back and he's once again like an 80% XFP guy. So yeah, Mixen is who I would have more interest in. Yeah, once he's falling past like the Brian Robinson's of the world,
Starting point is 00:42:18 I'm pretty happy to click him. But yeah, so I don't want to be like a huge like target stance on Mixon, but that is where I'm willing to take him. I will fade both of these guys. I don't have any interest in either one of them. We're going to talk about another reason to sort of fade Godwin shortly. Mixon's falling like a rock in some of these high-stakes drafts. I just can't do it.
Starting point is 00:42:40 I think there's too many players going in his range that could hit really big and sort of instead of chasing last year's production, there was some inefficient years for him in Cincinnati too. Last year, sort of everything ran correctly for mixing, but this year we have a new offensive coordinator. You have two new running backs on the roster. You have multiple past catchers have been added to the roster. I think that this is a offense that's going to pass a little bit more as well.
Starting point is 00:43:07 So I'll stay off of both these guys. One running back that you are very much into who's consistently being drafted inside a round eight is Jalen Warren. Make your Jalen Warren case in, I don't know, I'll give you 90 seconds, Ryan. We're not going to give you an hour on this one. Make your Jailen Warren case. Yeah. So my biggest Jalen Warren case is that Caleb Johnson, for whatever reason, has just been treated by fantasy managers as like guaranteed to hit. But that is not the case at all historically with middle to low.
Starting point is 00:43:37 late round three picks. They have very similar hit rates to the early day three guys like the Camp Scatabooz, like the Byshal Tutans. And he's been treated as much more likely to hit. We already know that he is likely not going to be on the field in any passing situations because of his pass blocking. I think Jalen Warren is still a very capable three-down player. He averaged 4.2 targets per game as recently as 2023 was banged up a lot of last year.
Starting point is 00:44:06 but before that he was a very good, very efficient runner, always near the top of the league and miss tackles forced. Will the Steelers ever give him a bell cow workload if they're not forced to? I don't really think so. But in a scenario where Johnson is just kind of a total bust and that they could be forced to. So that's kind of why I'm interested in Warren. There's like a very good kind of PPR floor there. And also, I think more upside than people are willing to let on that Caleb Johnson is just not really a
Starting point is 00:44:35 functional player outside of the early down, up the middle stuff. Yeah, so I'm team Caleb Johnson, but I got to say, Ryan, the whole thesis with Jalen Warren is looking better when it comes to the reports out of camp that Caleb Johnson is struggling as a pass blocker. I think sometimes when you hear about these younger players struggling with things like drops, struggling with things like pass blocking, the team sort of leaks it to put pressure on the player to improve rapidly. like immense pressure sort of makes elite athletes adjust and work harder on things and sort of like understand the the magnitude of their mistakes.
Starting point is 00:45:15 So I think there's a little bit with that, but it's an Aaron Rogers led team and that's just not going to fly. Jalen Warren capable runner, sort of a violent runner for a smaller back, really a explosive player, very good pass catcher. I will still be team Caleb Johnson, but you make a really good case for Jalen Warren. Let's go very quickly rapid fire here. Pick a New York Giants running back to bed on. Oftentimes we're seeing Camp Scataboo living inside of round eight. Tyler, excuse me, Tyrone Tracy occasionally goes in round nine, sometimes comes up in this range.
Starting point is 00:45:54 Anybody's been drafting on Underdog has seen sort of the variance with Tyrone Tracy where he goes in ADP. Right now, Tracy, I think the highest you'll pay for him is an early eighth rounder, occasionally falls to the end of round nine. With Scataboo, it's just a little bit more static. You know where he's going to be available in drafts and sort of where you need to sort of attack him is round eight. But you're rarely seeing the Cam Scadaboo early round seven
Starting point is 00:46:18 like you saw a couple weeks ago. So if you had to bet on one single Giants running back, who would it be? And a quick note, Ryan, like as of early August, these two are back to back in ADP in several formats. Yeah, I was recently convinced on this by Scott Barrett to lean a little more towards Scataboo. And the biggest reason for that is that we know he has like a top tier NFL, maybe not top tier NFL skill. A very good NFL level skill in that he is a great pass catcher.
Starting point is 00:46:52 He is going to help out on third downs almost for sure. And then all it takes is for Tracy to get put in the doghouse. once for a fumble for a drop, which we saw happen multiple times throughout last season, even after he'd taken over that belcow roll. So, yeah, I do think the upside for Scatibu is probably higher. So I'm just always going to lean to him. I don't think the sub-athleticism stuff matters necessarily as much as people tend to think. So, yeah, give me Scataboo.
Starting point is 00:47:29 Yeah, I'm Scataboo. And Scott and I are in an FFPC slow main event, and we took Scataboo in round eight. I think it's really hard to get Scott off of Cam Scadaboo as part of his draft plan. Part of it was that, but part of it was also Tyrone Tracy struggled last year not only with fumbles, but with drops. Scataboo, just a little more surehanded. The college production was just silly when it came to Scataboo. I think that eventually it might be a slow drip. You might have to wait a month.
Starting point is 00:47:57 You might have to wait six weeks. But you're going to eventually get to a point. in time where Scataboo is the clear leadback in this offense. I think they'll try a committee approach early in the year, Ryan. I think they really will. But I don't think that that's in Dable's nature. I think he wants to go with a clear lead back. And Scatabu is a better receiver and a more sure-handed runner.
Starting point is 00:48:18 So Tracy, unbelievable athlete, gave us a bunch of usable weeks last year, but I think it's going to be Camp Scataboo. One other convergence we've seen here, Green Bay. You're seeing Jaden Reed, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft in tight-end premium scoring like the FFPC, these guys all sometimes go within five picks of one another. Drafters are picking their favorite Green Bay Packer bet, and it's sort of all settling into the beginning to end of round eight.
Starting point is 00:48:46 If you had to pick a Green Bay Packer this season, I'll just go ahead and make your Jaden Reed case, Ryan. Yeah, no, don't just drop all the pretense. I'm going to make a date and read case. I don't even know why I'm trying to, people know you well around here. Go for it. Yeah, man, I will say first that I think you should be making a Green Bay Packers bet. This entire offense, this entire passing offense is very underpriced relative to what I expect from them this year.
Starting point is 00:49:11 And that's just because Jordan Love was so injured, especially in the second half of the season from week eight on after that groin injury happened. But to get into the Jaden Reed case, in his five starts before that groin injury, Jaden Reed averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game guys over. that sample. Jaden Reed is so good. Look, he is still in a year three breakout window, which it might be surprising to people, just because I feel like everyone's sick of hearing about him and talking about him. But this is year three for him. He is just behind Malik neighbors in yards per outrun over his career. In terms of fantasy points for outrun over the last two seasons, he ranks ninth. That's ahead of Brian Thomas Jr., ahead of Justin Jefferson. And I think really the biggest thing is I think his target competition is actually easier this year compared to last
Starting point is 00:50:05 season. So let me explain. Jaden Reed is pretty much always just going to run basically every slot route in 11 personnel. I don't really expect him to run a lot out of 12 personnel or from out wide almost at all. I don't think the whole like Green Bay wide receiver committee splitting routes thing affects him just because we know exactly what his defined role is. But within that role when he's on the field now instead of competing for targets against a combo of Christian Watson and Dantavian Wix on one side of the field on the outside. He's competing for targets with Matthew Golden. And my view is that those, that combo of Watson and Wix in a pure target earning sense is harsher competition than Matthew Golden. And here's why I say
Starting point is 00:50:55 that. Last year, those two players combined for a 20, 26% target per out run rate. That was the same as Justin Jefferson. That is like Jaden Reed having to compete for targets with Justin Jefferson on every snapies on the field. In his career, in college, Matthew Golden averaged just a 19% target per outrun rate. Targets are earned. TPRR is a very sticky statistic. I just don't think that Golden is a big time target commander.
Starting point is 00:51:26 I think he helps Green Bay's offense. I think he stretches the field for them and provides more of a consistent presence there that maybe won't drop the ball as much as Don Tavian Wicks. But I do think it all evens out or equals out to more targets for Jaden Reed, which is kind of the only thing he has needed more of is we just need this guy to get more targets, more targets for route. So yeah, that's why Reed is my favorite. But I do think like Golden and Kraft are totally fine picks,
Starting point is 00:51:56 are totally good picks, are defensible picks in this range as well. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm not anti-Reed. I certainly like Golden more than you do. And I think Tucker Kraft is one of the last tight ends you can draft that legitimately has a chance to lead his team in targets because it's sort of a low bar in Green Bay.
Starting point is 00:52:15 And we've seen Tucker Craft sort of be a yak monster. There's been talk that he's going to get more downfield looks this year. So I really could make a case. case for all three. And it's a range of the draft where taking a shot on one of these guys, there's a chance that two of these guys become really good picks and one of them is looked back at as a not very good pick in this range. I think that's also in the range of outcomes. I'll say the one recent development that's sort of you could make another bulk case for Reed is I don't think they want to go another year where they're so reliant on Josh Jacobs in terms of
Starting point is 00:52:53 sheer volume. And with Marshawn Lloyd and now Emmanuel Wilson being banged up, could we potentially see more Jaden Reed in sort of the Debo role like we saw when he was so good as his rookie season? I think that that's sort of in the range of outcome. So I'm with you. Take a shot on this Green Bay past catchers role. Like if they get back to being a little bit more balanced like they were in 2023 when Jordan Love was cooking, then I think there's a chance that two of these three guys turn out to be ADP winners. And they're all young, too, Ryan. It's not like we're chasing some old guy to have some bounce back. Crafts in year three. Jaden Reed's in year three. Golden is in year one. I don't love the
Starting point is 00:53:34 snapshot for Reed. I think there's a bunch of red flags, but you certainly make a bull case for just drafting him at this sort of minimal cost. Let's make two flag plants for me. I've asked you a couple of guys that you specifically like. I'll say two players that I think should be major parts of your draft plan in round seven and round eight. Start out with Jordan Addison. I think that this is one of the more ridiculous ADPs that we're seeing. We talked about this several times in a best ball sense where Jordan Addison sort of been has been living around wide receiver 37 land, you know, like a very high end wide
Starting point is 00:54:13 receiver four. It's just ridiculous for me. Jordan Addison has been awesome for two seasons. as a pro. I just double-checked. Currently on Underdog, he's wide receiver 37. Scott Barrett and I just took Jordan Addison at the 7-7 in an FFPC main event. At that range of drafts, I mean, he's one of the best wide receiver two bets you can make from a team perspective. Like him outscoring a Devontas Smith this year wouldn't shock me at all and you're able to get him in this sort of range. There's this like fear in the community that Addison has a suspension,
Starting point is 00:54:49 but I would bet that it's a two-game suspension if he gets one at all. He's not going to be some test case for the NFL. This is not going to be some outlier guy that they're looking to openly punish. So let's say he gets a two-game suspension. Big deal. We're not taking zeros. But when we look back in NFL history, Jordan Addison is 12th in NFL history in touchdown scored from a wide receiver
Starting point is 00:55:14 in their first two seasons as a pro, right up there with guys like some truly elite plays. players on that list. For me, Addison, it's just so much upside. There's, I would bet on him being the number two target in the Minnesota passing game. And you reference J.J. McCarthy. If J.J. McCarthy is able to extend plays with his legs like we think he can, it's going to be even more opportunities for Addison downfield. Addison's skill set matches up so well with McCarthy. It's just like the market never catches up with Addison. Dynasty, redraft, best ball. We saw last year where he's underdrafted.
Starting point is 00:55:50 We're seeing it again this year when he's underdrafted. He was a first round pick, a reward winner and all-American in college, been nothing but terrific his first two seasons as a pro, and now is just going as like a fringe wide receiver three. Make it make sense, Ryan. Talk me off of this one because I want Addison in almost every single draft. I have eighth round Addison exposure in FFPC right now. I'm going to continue hitting that button for him all offseason.
Starting point is 00:56:17 Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to. talk you off of this at all. I completely agree. I think Addison has been insanely priced the entire summer. He, like, before it was clear that he was going to get a suspension, he was priced as if he was going to. And I was like, okay, I'm fine taking him here. The guy was the wide receiver 16 in fantasy points per game with all of him, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hawkinson on the field last year. So that felt pretty easy. The news comes out that he's most likely going to get suspended for a couple or three games or so. But then his ADP continues to fall by like another round.
Starting point is 00:56:52 Yeah, it doesn't make sense to me at all. I love Addison. I'll like slightly nitpick your Devante Smith comparison. Just in that if AJ Brown or Dallas Goddard gets injured, I think Devante Smith has legitimate like top 10 wide receiver upside. Well, I'll just let me ask you. Let me ask you this one then. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:57:11 What happens if Justin Jefferson, who's nursing a hamstring injury, misses some time. What does that do to Jordan Addison? Yeah, I don't think Addison just inherently as a receiver just in terms of his skill is capable of being a top 10 receiver as easily or as likely as Domante Smith is. But I'm with you in that probably the median outcome is about as good or maybe slightly better, just comparing these two offenses with no injuries. So, yeah, I think the comparison makes sense, but I do think it makes sense that Smith goes around or two higher. Yeah, no, I'm with you. And I, and I, it's not an anti-Divanta Smith take. It's just a really a pro Jordan Addison take. I've been drafting. I'm pro both of them. Yeah. Smith and the Smith and like the Jameson Williams pickens,
Starting point is 00:57:58 Devontas Smith like Calvin Ridley tier like Smith is a fine click. I've taken him. It's just a Addison should be going around higher than he is. And the upside, the spike weeks, everything with Madison is just awesome. I just think he's such a, he's an auto click in round eight in these, in these sort of PPR formats. And he's in the middle of round seven. If you don't like who's on the board, just take Jordan Addison. He's going to be very, very good like he has been his first two seasons as a pro.
Starting point is 00:58:28 And the final player that I want to flag plant, Ryan, I'm all in on a mecca at Buka. It's getting harder and harder to draft him because he's rising up and up. I have terrible vibes with Chris Godwin. and I have amazing vibes when it comes to Ameca Agbuka. Tampa Bay selects them in the first round, and it's just been nothing but positive drum beats in Tampa Bay, whether it's Baker Mayfield, whether it's Todd Bulls, whether it's Josh Grizzard.
Starting point is 00:58:54 They're all singing the praises of Ameca Agbuka. I think his role is going to be so much bigger than some people are projecting him for. And I know it's a very difficult one. Anybody listen to this who does projections, I get it. It's really hard to do these projections for the Bucks wide receivers because you have to factor in Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, all these guys. But Mike Evans, 32 years old, missed time last year.
Starting point is 00:59:15 Chris Godwin, we're both fading. How can we not be in on a Mecca Egbuka in this range of drafts? Ryan, talk me off of this one. Yeah, I'm not going to talk you off this one either. Yeah, Egbuka, to me, is the only buccaneer that I'm really excited about at ADP. And the reason for that is, I think just about every other player on this team has a fairly fragile projection where it's either dependent on Baker Mayfield continuing to be at a 6% plus passing touchdown rate, which is just historically unlikely for players even that are in
Starting point is 00:59:49 the exact same offense, let alone players that are losing their offensive coordinator. So, yeah, the passing touchdowns are likely to drop Mike Evans. You didn't even mention this, but Mike Evans being where he is in terms of age and kind of having all these comments about, yeah, I don't know if I'm going to be playing forever, honestly, in recent interviews. Yeah, just if anything goes wrong with the Bucks, all of their other ADPs are probably going to look kind of rough. And if anything goes wrong for any of the other players on the Bucca's ADP is going to look
Starting point is 01:00:25 insane. So, yeah, that's why I'm so in on Igbuka. He is kind of the anti-fragile Buccaneer on a very fragile team just in terms of projection. Yeah, Baker-Makefield said it said it the right way. He said he's built like a running back, and he catches passes like Chris Godwin. And he's also praised Emeka Egbuka's versatility. And I think a lot of people sort of pegged him as this guy who needs to be in the slot. Sure, we want a Mecca Agbupa in the slot.
Starting point is 01:00:52 But Egbuka can also win on the outside. I think he's a dynamic talent. I think he could end up just crushing his ADP this year. And I think we could look back a year from now. And if Mike Evans does move on, Egbuka could be a guy that moves up like five rounds in terms of ADP. We're going to end up talking about him in sort of like the way we're talking about guys like JSN this year in that sort of draft range. So flag planting a mechegbuka, flagplanting Jordan Addison, Ryan dropped all of his flagplants.
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