Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Football Early ADP Values & Draft Targets (2025) FFPC High Stakes Draft Review w/ John Daigle
Episode Date: May 9, 2025Who really deserves to go first overall in 2025 redraft leagues — Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley... or someone else entirely? 🤔 In this episode of Fantasy Football Daily, we walk t...hrough our full-round strategy for high-stakes redraft leagues, including the FFPC Main Event. 🔥 Topics Covered: • 1.01 debate: Chase vs. Bijan vs. Barkley • First-round goals: Did you get your guy? • How to build around your top pick in Rounds 2–3 • Best value in Rounds 4–7 • Our favorite sleeper picks in the final rounds • Which pick tilted us the most (snipe alert!) • Where we want to draft from in Main Events Whether you're chasing a league title or prepping for big-money tournaments, this episode is loaded with tactical insight and sharp takes to help you dominate your 2025 draft. 🎯 Where to find us: http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy http://twitter.com/NotJDaigle Join the Discord here: https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Fantasy Points Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Fantasy Football Daily. I'm Theo Graminger.
Today I'm joined by John Daigle of Establish the Run, who I've podcasted with like a million times.
But this is the first time you've come on with me at Fantasy Point.
So really stoked to have you in here.
John's putting out tremendous content.
John is also my league mate every year in the FFPC Hardway draft.
How many is this for you, John?
Is this your second or third year?
I believe this is my third year.
And I got ahead of myself last season.
I competed so well, but ultimately, to not have Sequin Barclay, I was an early running back guy who,
or someone who bucked that trend, I should say, avoided the early running backs with Jamar Chase and Drake London.
And it eventually caught up to me in the final four, five weeks of the season.
But until then, was leading the league and fell apart.
So, you know, this is a, maybe it may need another year, John, because this is a, I've been running pure.
in this league. I have two, two championships. I'm the only two-time Hardway champion. And last year,
I won the regular season and I lost in the finals to the Go-Bills guys. And the Go-Bills guys are two-time
FFPC main event champions, fantastic drafters. That's Don Bariani, Nick Constantino, and
Sean Stutzman, really, really great drafters. And that's sort of indicative of the quality of
manager in this in this draft so you have at the one spot was mike schope of adp chasing and the
deep end with adam crout crout worst also really top notch high end high stakes drafter then i was
in the two whole third was dan williamson who is a host for stack hunters but he's pretty much
one of the better high stakes managers around in the nfc ffpc streets has taken down a number of
big big big prizes uh fourth was austin martin who is
one of the better dynasty managers in FFPC.
Also has taken down the postseason contest for a half a million dollars,
FFPC.
Noah Riddell at five, big time high stakes manager.
Todd,
Todd at the six,
we had Darren Armani at the seven.
Go bills guys.
On and on.
Oh, and Abbahtabitabat,
Drafting right next to you,
which must have been a lot of fun at the 10 spot.
So Abeeb is a back-to-back winner of this contest.
And this is a $350 entry.
contest. So it's a, you can win some regular season money. It's like $3,000.
excuse me, what's the prize now for the regular season? 1800, John? I believe so, yes. But then
everyone only talks about obviously the grand prize, which we're all shooting for,
which is the million at top. Yeah. So it's 1500 for first. Then you also win something for the
regular season. But yeah, like you said, it's this is, this is a contest where it's nice to win
something for the regular season. But you're really trying to get a,
spot in the postseason. There's $5.3 million in prizes at stake, including a million dollars
to the first place team, 150K to the second place team, 50K to the third place team, and on and on and on.
This draft usually does not produce anywhere near of a overall champion because of the quality
of the competition. I think that one of my teams that won it was like 80th in the final
standings. That's probably about the highest you could run in this because it's just you're not getting
any steals. Guys are getting drafted early. It's complete flag planting time. But I love it,
John, because you get a really competitive draft early in the year. You also are seeing where the money
is reaching on and you see where the money players are flag planting on. So a little bit of gamesmanship.
Guys, I think love sniping each other in this draft. I know Dan Williamson, who I was drafting next to,
sent me a little nasty message when he sniped.
me on Tet McMillan around the four or five turn. But it's, it's very, very competitive,
and we do get a lot out of it. So I think when this originally was set up by the FFPC,
it was one of the very first 350s post-NFL draft to sort of set the tone on ADP.
They do this one. And then they do origins, which is their big best ball one, which is like a
28 round, $250 contest. So they try to set the ADP early on and they have this sort of invitation only.
So this is an awesome one for us to be involved in.
And it's just a lot of fun.
So I was in the two hole.
You were in the 11 spot.
We were basically opposite ends, not too much sniping going on here between one another.
But we're going to sort of break it down.
And if you want to get into the FFPC, you can use the fantasy points code points.
And that'll get you $25 off.
So $25 off of you could deposit $10, get an extra $25.
And you could get an entry in their $35.
best ball contest, a great way to kind of enter and get your feet wet in the FFPC.
I play here. John plays here. I know we're both in Dynasty leagues right now in the FFPC.
And John, it's also, if you ever get the opportunity, there's nothing more lit than
Las Vegas FFPC drafts. I know the two of us have headed out there. Are you going this year?
I'm trying to go this year. Last year is when it was my first year with ETR, which we're coming
up on the anniversary. I need to double check that. But there was a lot of,
more put on my plate than expected so I could not make it out. But this year, since I have a
much better idea of my schedule, I'm going to try. No guarantees for everyone, but we'll see.
So I have, basically I used to do a really long week out there. Now it's a little bit condensed,
but yeah, I will be in Vegas. I'll be drafting for like Wednesday. I'll be there for Thursday.
Dan Williamson and I, uh, we won the varsity, which is a big high stake century contest last year.
we won it so we're running it back in the post the post opening game varsity contest and then
then i think i fly home i'll be i'll be home for for saturday sunday so i'm able to get all my
my work done for fantasy points so yeah it's it's terrible timing but it's a lot of fun yeah it's it's a
high energy draft room it's incredible but let's get to the draft we had last night so just to
go over the the draft jimar chase goes at the one so i had originally had a plan
of drafting Jamar Chase or Bijan Robinson.
A lot of times the consensus 101 falls to the 102 or the 103 with this format,
because again, guys flag plant.
They want to have a little bit of creativity in their builds.
But Bejohn Robinson was my choice at the 102.
I had considered Sequin.
I considered Jemir Gibbs.
But for me, Bejohn is just a very safe pick.
If I had to guess, he would be one of the five or six players.
if we had to write them down now and said,
what players are going to average 20 points per game this year?
I think Bejohn would be one of them.
I like his outlook in year two of the Zach Robinson offense.
He's a massive two-way threat,
and he's entering his third year as a pro.
Would you have gone in this direction at the 102, John,
or would you pick someone else?
I would have gone in that direction.
To me, it is either Jamar Chase or Bejohn
at the top two picks like you.
And then 103 is harder,
although I think I would also go Brock Bowers
just because the Titan tiers
have a conversation to themselves.
We'll talk about that when we get to my pick,
but after Bowers and McBride,
you're just kind of left on an island after that.
There's a wide gap between who you select next
and when you select him.
So yeah, I like Bejohn or Chase there.
Also for Bejohn, it's the fact that
the next tier of running backs after Jemir Gibbs,
the usually Ashton Jentee, Noah, of course,
at number five overall, our good friend took Gentia as the second running back off the board.
But Ashton, Janty, DeBonne, A, Chan, Christian McCaffrey, Derek Henry.
They're all thrown into the next tier of guys typically, and that tier doesn't get back to you at 101 and 101 and 102 usually.
And so you're pretty much left to reach on Bucky Irving.
Thus, I think that forces your hand naturally to get Bejohn rather than start with Bucky, in my opinion, your RB1 overall.
Yeah, it's funny.
And structure definitely influences your plan.
And, you know, people say it's early May, guys, let's pump the brakes.
But John, a lot of times this ADP is about as stagnant as it gets.
You'll see a few guys move up and down.
But I would argue with you right now that if we're going to FFPC main event drafts,
I'd say 10 out of the 12 first round picks would be first round picks.
And I'd say if we expanded that to the second round,
I would say that probably 21 out of the 24 first round, first and second round picks will go in those rounds.
So ADP gets pretty set at the top.
We see it on Underdog.
We definitely see it in FFPC and NFFC drafts.
So just to keep this thing going, Bejohn goes, I take Bejohn at the two.
Dan Williamson takes Brock Bowers at the three.
Then it goes Justin Jefferson at the four.
Ashton Genti, Sequin Barkley, 5, 6, C.D. Lamb at 7.
Jemir Gibbs, a gift at 8.
And then 9 to J.D. gets Malik neighbors.
A B-bag Batoba takes Brian Thomas Jr.
and then you're sitting there at the 111.
You take Amon Rae St. Brown 111.
Was Amon Ra one of the players you sort of had circled going in as a target of yours in the end of the first?
Well, I have Amon Rae ahead of Cidie Lamb.
That was my big surprise is that in this case,
Amon Ra falls to the wide receiver six overall in the back of the first round
when I would take him sixth or seventh overall.
Like I would take Amon Rao over Jemir Gibbs, for example.
And so the fact that he was there, whether that's right or wrong,
the fact that he was there at the end made my decision really easy. Otherwise, I am looking at double
tapping Nico Collins and Pukunakua or slamming Trey McBride there just because again,
in the back end, like, which is, you know, at least by our standards too early for George Kittle,
you kind of take Trey McBride or you sit out tight in altogether because otherwise you're left
reaching on this next jumble of tight ends that we have zero confidence in.
And that's, in that case, you're just forcing it because it's tied in premium.
And so I think at the very end, you're trying to just grab,
portray McBride to be done with tight-in for a while.
But with ARSP there, it made my decision easy for me anyways.
It's interesting in FFPC.
And again, this is 1.5 point tight-end premium.
Yeah.
So the tight ends go a little bit earlier.
But we see Bowers and McBride locked in the first round.
Then we sometimes see Kittle go in the second round.
I think he'll settle in there.
There's a gap now between Kittle and Sam Leporta.
and like you said, it's a, we really get into this like round six, round seven where all these tight ends get cleaned up.
It's a little different than some years in the FFPC where there's multiple tight end pockets.
So like you talked about the beginning structurally, be willing to drop Bowers early, be willing to take Trey McBride.
I mean, I think certainly we'll see some Trey McBride like 107 type builds when we get to main events because, John, you get boxed out from these top two guys.
So do you have regrets on not taking Trey McBride at the 11 when you look at how the rest of the draft played out for you or no?
I don't think so. Structurally, I do think it's better to take Trey McBride, honestly.
But again, I have, and we at ETR have Amon Ra ranked higher than Consensus.
And so I'm very happy with the Amon Ra pick.
I also still, I don't know if I have confidence in the Lions offense without Ben Johnson,
especially because Jared Goff has now shown us historically.
Although Jared Goff had terrific numbers last year, he is Jared Goff.
This is not an, it's still the laziest argument ever when people say indoor,
Jared Goff is good, outdoor he's bad.
No, that's not it.
It's always been if Jared Goff is under pressure, he's a terrible quarterback.
That is why Sean McVeigh got away from him and then won a Super Bowl because he understood
his weaknesses are far too strong to overcome.
And for Jared Goff, even if he falls apart without Ben Johnson, in my mind, the one
person we have confidence in still as a Monroe,
St. Brown, because like a fluttering Jared
golf still hammers the rock straight to Monroe every single time
without looking anywhere else. So he's the one guy. I still have confidence in
this offense. I mean, he's an absolute machine. I think I'm a little higher
on Gibbs than you are when I look at Detroit, but trying to project
the James, Sam Leporta, that's the one where the appropriate time to select
those guys. I'm into Jameson. We'll talk about him a little bit later, but
you basically expand on the Gibbs.
You said I'm on a ride ahead of Gibbs for you.
Yeah, similar.
I'm making the same argument as last year since we didn't see anything that
suggests otherwise and that when Montgomery and Gibbs have been healthy together,
like pre- Montgomery ankle injury, it was a timeshare so much so that Montgomery
out touched Gibbs last year when they were together.
Then Montgomery gets injured.
He comes back like Pacheco, like Chubb.
You know these guys are always.
useless when they come back from injury because they're always rushed back.
And then Gibbs just has to outplay him because Montgomery is ineffective.
Like we expected that when Montgomery returned for the playoffs.
But now that they're going to be full strength again, it's going to be a timeshare,
in my opinion.
Like we've now seen this two years in a row.
The first year, whenever Montgomery got injured, Gibbs was still the RB1, lit the world
on fire and it didn't matter to Dan Campbell whatsoever.
This is still a timeshare.
And so like last year when Gibbs was an end of first round pick and then
only became more than that when Montgomery got injured.
It's one of those situations where I still think he's being overvalued,
but perhaps he looks into, perhaps you are playing yourself into luck.
You're making your own luck and that you are betting on Montgomery getting injured.
But with the new contract that the organization gave him,
I still think it's quite clearly going to be a timeshare where Gibbs cannot deliver
in that investment unless Montgomery's injured.
I think that the one thing for me, like a little bit of a question,
Mark is Detroit goes out of team, like out of the organization to hire John Morton as their new
offensive coordinator.
That's the wild card for me.
Because what, and I think we'll find this out in Chicago as well, depending on what Chicago does
the rest of the summer at the running back position.
But was using two running backs exclusively a little bit more Ben Johnson or is that a Dan
Campbell, David Montgomery is my guy thing?
And I know Dan Campbell will pound the table and talk glowingly about Montgomery.
But does John Morton look at his team and say, my best chance of winning is year three,
Jamir Gibbs overforcing these touches of David Montgomery.
Look at how good Jamir Gibbs was to end last season.
So I think we'll find out a lot.
But I do think it would have been more of an argument if like Tanner Engstrand didn't
leave for New York and just was elevated to OC.
But we'll review that.
I'm sure during the season, John, we podcast together.
But let's take a quick break.
We come back.
Let's talk about round two and round three, the plans, the snipes.
all of the mystery and the intrigue of the FFPC Hardway draft.
Welcome back, Theo Breminger with John Daigle.
John, let everybody know where they can find your work
and what you have going on this time of year at ETR.
Establish the run.com currently hammering out our best ball list,
our last round picks to be ahead of ADP,
tiers for drafting, so not just player tiers,
but actual tiers you should draft at this time of the draft.
That way you can look at them,
and then mark them off as they come along and see which players are available at that time,
the moment you're picking.
So working on all of those for everyone should be out by next week.
And then from that point forward, it's time to get to season long, this kind of stuff.
Get the player tiers, season previews, things like that.
So all at Establisher Run.com.
Yeah, I highly recommend John's work.
And John, you crushed it on Establish the Edge this offseason.
I had a chance to go on two of your shows.
You did an awesome job.
And I know Leonie's taking that over.
But anytime John is podcasting, highly recommend checking them out.
you're always dropping the fire and always coming up with stats and and like blurbs that I wasn't
necessarily aware of.
You're very, very detailed in your approach.
And your approach in the second round was to go with Christian McCaffrey.
Was McCaffrey always part of your plan or is this sort of a value to pass up?
Because just looking at your board, maybe I would have liked your team better if you
would have taken Pukunakua or Drake London instead of McCaffrey just seeing the way the board
fell to you.
I did not expect it to be a wide receiver heavy first five, six rounds.
And that's kind of what led me to have a lot of early running backs, which again, I did not expect.
I just played, as I usually do, I just play opposite the room, opposite the board.
I take whatever everyone leaves.
And in this case, with all the wide receivers going early, which again, I did not expect,
I took a lot of early running backs.
So I grabbed Christian McCaffrey in the second.
I love Christian McCaffrey, by the way.
So I'm not upset about this at all.
but I grabbed him understanding the next group of guys.
Like, you know A. Chan, Henry, they're not going to come back to you, whatever.
But you also assume Chase Brown, Kyron Williams are not going to come back to you at the end of the third.
And so I grabbed Christian McCabry understanding that I probably wasn't going to get a running back.
I wanted when it came back to me.
Pookonakua was next on my list, but I instead wanted the anchor RB.
Rather than anchor RB, though, because of what the room did, it became an RB early in
heavy rather than depending on late round running backs.
And so I don't think I'm upset about the Christian McCabry pick.
I love CMC this year.
Imagine last year if we can say, hey, like the guy who finishes the overall RB1 unequivocally
two years ago suffered an offseason injury should not have been drafted 101 overall.
And now two years later, he's available in the second round.
We take that bet every single time, especially without Jordan Mason on the roster.
But the way the room fell and now looks like a.
at the RB team, which again is not what I had planned.
Yeah. And I've gone with your approach and been successful with it in this draft,
attacking the running back position because it's it is a, it's a league that really,
really saps up wide receiver value. Yeah. And the wide receiver is just steam. There's like
wide receiver runs that are really difficult to sometimes dive into. And sometimes you can
get left holding the bag and reaching into a tier you shouldn't have. So I think you, you know,
I also was running back more running back heavy than I had into.
anticipated. But at my pick at the end of the second round, basically just second round goes,
you take CNC, then it goes to Cua, London, A.J. Brown, three wide receivers in a row. Then it goes
A. Chan, Taylor, Henry, three running backs in a row. Ladd McConkey, Garrett Wilson, and then I
take Kittle. In my initial plan, I would have loved to have had Ladd McConkey fall to me at 23
overall. He was sniped. Wilson, I think, is a structurally fine bet. The guys averaged like
almost 150 targets a year as a pro.
But I think with that Jets passing game,
asking him to be a top five wide receiver this year,
that's a really difficult bet to make.
And when I'm drafting a wide receiver in the second round,
I want to bet on that high ceiling.
So I did go with the structural pick,
where I took George Kittle at the 23rd overall pick,
which might seem a little bit early for some.
But when I look at Kittle,
I think he could benefit greatly from the wide receiver changes in San Francisco.
plus last year he was the leader in tight end points per game.
He was a tight end one in points per game behind Bowers and McBride
in terms of fantasy points because he missed a little bit of time.
But unbelievable 15 plus point production when you put in the tight end premium.
I think he made a lot of sense for me.
Then we see Tyree Kill and Devante Adams go off the board.
Two guys I wasn't considering.
Bucky Irving heading into the draft,
I think I might be a little higher on Bucky than you are.
are. For me, Bucky at the beginning of the third round gives me a really safe floor because I think
his receiving production is going to go up. And I think he's got a high ceiling as well.
This offense didn't add another running back this off season. So the thoughts that Tampa was going to
go and add, you know, some appealing fourth round running back, get a Cam Scadaboo or a
basal Tootin in the mix and kind of muddy everything up, that was not there. So it's going to be
Rashad White, who Bucky Irving overtook and Sean Tucker, who was way behind both of those guys last
year. For me, Bucky Irving on an offensive average 29 points per game, he's a year two back.
He's got the receiving upside. I like him as a value early third round. Your thoughts?
Completely agree. To me, it's Bucky and Chase Brown, Chase Brown, Chase Brown, another draft winner
because the Bengals did not add a single running back of relevance and brought back Zach Moss on a vet minimum
contract that doesn't even guarantee he's on the active roster if he is.
We saw last year that we do not think it matters given Moss's health concerns.
So yeah, I like both of those players.
I would reach for both of them at the top of the third round.
I was actually coming into the season ready to argue against Chase Brown as well,
since if you go back and look, I know it's going to sound crazy to people that
started him every week.
He wasn't explosive.
He depended entirely on 24 plus touches per game.
That's how he got by.
That's how running backs get by if they're not explosive.
But again, zero competition added that we care about.
So love Chase Brown now at the top of the third round.
I completely agree with you in that aspect.
And we're going to talk about it more.
We get to Snipes, but also what we're seeing in Christian McCaffrey and your George
Kittlepick and the 49ers receivers is that it's very clear that in early drafts,
49ers ADPs are going to be depressed across the board for last year's results.
And as we know in drafting early, we do not care about last year's
results. We're not playing a game where we get points for last year. We're trying to project and be ahead.
The 49ers this year, as opposed to a bottom five schedule, have the easiest schedule in the league per
Warren Sharpe's early numbers. So it is very easy in my mind to just be ahead of every 49ers
offensive skill player. Cross your fingers. They don't have the worst, literally the worst injury luck in
the league again. And they're going to be a significantly better offense this year. Yeah, no, I'm with you.
I think San Francisco is a, they also, because we have a lack of clarity on who the running back
too is we have a lack of clarity as to, I wouldn't even say it's a lack of clarity.
I think it's a depressed values for both of the starting wide receivers.
And then Christian McCaffrey, again, it's, are you a glass half full or glass half empty on
Christian McCaffrey?
If you're glass half full, then Christian McCaffrey in the second round is a button you want
to click over and over and over again.
So very interesting team.
Keep it going.
And a quick correction, because I know Mike Schopen and Adam Crout, we're still listening to
this one.
I said they took Tyree Kill.
It was Breece Hall at the at the two three turns.
So not Tyree Kill.
You only took one dusty wide receiver in Devante Adams,
but you took the better one in Devante Adams than Tyree Kill.
So third round continues.
After Bucky Irving, we see three straight wide receivers.
One thing that I think was interesting was Terry McLaren went ahead of T. Higgins in J.S.N.
In most drafts, McClorn goes behind those two.
But again, Dan Williamson, a big fan of McLaren this year.
then you see Josh Jacobs, Tyree Kill, Chase Brown, like you mentioned, Xavier Worthy,
Kyron Williams, and then you get OTC, and you did something that I actually did the other day
in the, I drafted a couple of industry drafts. I did one for the athletic, one for Lindy's,
and I took O'Mary and Hampton right at this three-four turn. We're both high on O'Mari and Hampton
this year. You take your second running back in the end of round three. Was that something
you were planned on, or was it O'Mari and Hampton was just better than any other wide
receiver value on the board. I can't even complain that I was in a tough spot because no matter
who I'm sandwiched in between in this draft, it's going to be a tough spot, right?
I have to take my stances. At the same time, though, I kept playing the game with Brad, who was not
aware I was playing the game. But at the end of drafts, it's always fun because you can say,
okay, I'm leaving this player over because this guy has too many of this position. Thus, I know I can
take this running back. He will not take a wide receiver and I can get that wide receiver. You're just
always leaving the player over, you think you'll have the greater odds of having when it
comes back to you. Brad was never falling for it. For Jacobi Myers, for Rashi Rice,
Abib took Brandon Ayyuk, sniped me right before me. Like I kept on playing this game of I'm
going to get this guy and I never got this guy. And so that's also what happened when we taking
early running backs is I kept on leaving the wide receivers for Brad and he kept on taking them
when I assumed he would then start trying to get running backs. And so in this case, I take
Amari and Hampton thinking I'm going to get Rashy Rice on the comeback.
But I still wanted Hampton over Rice because think about what the Chargers were in the first month before their buy under Jim Harbaugh.
Like they came out with the league's highest run play rate, 52% run play rate.
They did not want to throw the ball despite Harbaugh, absolutely loving Justin Herbert for all the right reasons.
The issue was, of course, they could not run because they didn't have a good running back.
J.K. Dobbins looked great against the Panthers and Raiders.
and then solely rotted out on touchdowns,
and was one of the league's least inefficient running backs,
or least efficient running backs.
And now you, in the first round,
draft a big stud,
a three-down back, like a Marion Hampton,
and as opposed to that first month of the season
when they were 31st and first-down carries,
27th and explosive runs.
Like, you now have a guy who actually is explosive.
So, Nauseer is certainly a road bump.
Like, he probably, Hampton will not be allowed to,
to have the ball as a three-down option in the first month or so of the season.
But we also know we don't want to project like that in May.
Who cares?
Let's just cross our fingers and figure it out.
Let's bet on the stud.
So understanding what the charters want to do and what they will do,
I love Hampton to eventually earn the role and probably win leagues for you in the second half of the season.
Thus, I still want to be higher on Hampton than everyone else.
And then because Rishi Rice gets off the board, I can then just follow suit and say,
all right, I'm going to try to win a position with Josh Allen with my next pick.
Yeah, I like the Josh Allen pick, and I like diving into at the Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels tier right now.
I think those three guys all have like an exceptional edge and the potential to be the QB1.
And it's interesting in this format guys fade quarterback a little bit.
I don't think fourth round Josh Allen is going to be very common in these when we get to main event season.
I think he'll settle into round three.
I think Lamar will be there.
And I think Jaden Daniels is also headed in that direction.
I know we have very high projections on Jane Daniels on our site.
And he's a guy that I know Scott Barrett and I are both super high on.
So I'm sure there's a ton of people in the building at ETR that are high on Jane Daniels as well.
He's just an easy guy to root for and to project to take a big year to leap.
So that quarterback tier, I don't blame me at all.
I like the Omerin Hampton pick.
The charges were 11th in rush attempts last year with that group of running backs.
I think this year they really want to be top five.
Oh, yeah. Omar and Hampton feeding him the rock. And people hate this because they'll say, Theo, you know, get out of here with your college football narratives.
But when it comes to Jim Harbaugh, we're talking about a guy who the Frank Gore seasons where Frank Gore was getting 300 carries a year.
And then in college, the Blake Corum, unbelievable year. So for me, deep in his heart, Jim Harbaugh is a bell cow coach.
O'Marian Hampton just screams everything about it. And John, the joy on Harbaugh's face.
when he's shaking hands with this absolute unit of an Omarian Hampton outside of the Chargers facility after the NFL draft.
It's like an iconic photo.
It's like you really think this guy wants to give the ball to Najee Harris.
This is his guy in Omari and Hampton.
So keep it going here in the fourth round.
Fourth round gets tilting for me.
So I originally had gone into it.
I have like a sheet that I write down a couple guys that I think will be there.
I initially had Ted McMillan, Travis Hunter, D.K. Metcalfe, Trayvion Henderson, Sam Leporta.
where the names I wrote down that I thought I'd consider where I was picking at the end of the fourth round and then my early fifth round pick.
It ends up getting, I get very tilted because Ted McMillan's a guy that I think is a tremendous value here at the end of the fourth.
He goes at the 410.
And I get it again, a nasty message from Dan Williamson about how I sniped you on your wide receiver you wanted because Dan and I draft together.
He knows the guys I like.
We talk all the time.
So I sit there and I tilted because James Cook fell to me.
at the 4-11. I already had two running backs. I didn't necessarily want to do it, but it was a,
James Cook is one where I think there's going to be a lot of really smart people on a lot of
sites that are going to say this is a regression candidate. A lot of his production last year was
touchdown-based, this is a guy that's going to have to regress. We also have the holdout fears
where I think there could be a potential holdout situation. And I think when you do take James
Cook, you want to draft Ray Davis just to save yourself any late, late summer headaches.
But when I look at Cook, Cook was just so productive last year on a per touch basis.
And with the players, the skill position players on Buffalo, for me, it's just hard for them
to get away from Cook at a level that's high enough that he's going to regress that much.
I think James Cook is still a guy that I would bet on to finish as an RB1 this year.
He also has a couple of bouts where I get the Ty Johnson is there, but they could get
back to using James Cook just a little bit more as a receiver, a little self-scouting in the building.
So for me, James Cook, getting him at the end of round four is a guy that I think could be a 15
point per game score, even if he's sort of like, even if he doesn't take a big step forward.
I think this is structurally a pick where I have Cook and the flex.
I'm able to stomach it even though it wasn't my initial plan.
Your thoughts on James Cook.
Well, I think also end of round four has that regression baked in.
So you're already paying.
for the price. We don't need a double discount him here.
So I agree, like, I'm not going to have much James Cook,
but it's only because he usually goes higher than this.
At this point, you know, we like the podfather always says,
we don't have players, we hate ADPs.
We're just playing a stock game here.
And so, of course, I would take James Cook in that spot.
Plus, he's your RB3, probably a weekly starter.
But at this point, you're also bucking the room by doing something different,
because again, they took wide receivers heavy.
They left these running backs to die for no reason.
So, of course, I'm just taking that discount.
I'm with you, not to mention, I think your next player is one of the best values of the entire board.
Yeah, and let's take a quick break.
And we come back.
We're going to review round five and beyond Theo Griminger and John Daigle right here at Fantasy Points, Fantasy Football Daily,
reviewing the best early draft of the year, John.
How much fun is this?
Just tons of fun.
Just all I've done is think about it for the last 24 hours since we drafted.
I know.
It's unbelievable.
It's energizing.
It's so much fun.
So we'll be back in just one minute.
All right, welcome back. So round five, you mentioned you like the value.
Yesterday morning, it's like eight in the morning. I'm in the discord with Scott and Brett Whitefield.
And I say, we got to get on. We got to do an emergency pod. Brett and I did an emergency pod reacting to the George Pickens to Dallas trade.
And, John, this is an unbelievable one where there's no fantasy football loser here. It's all winners.
Dax's a winner. Pat Frymer is a winner. George Pickens is a winner. But certainly I think the biggest winner,
was D.K. Meckaff, and I took him at the 502. I love DK this year. Every year we see a wide
receiver get traded and finish as a wide receiver one. There are so much bad things going on
potentially at the quarterback spot in Pittsburgh. But when I look at DK, this is a guy that
hasn't had a 25% plus target share since 2022. With the target competition around him,
it's going to be all that he can handle. And when we, people say, well, Theo, slow down. It's
Arthur Smith. If you tell me it's D.K. Metcalf with 120 targets in this in this offense,
I think he can do a lot with those considering it's going to be a ton of play action,
DK in the red zone and all like this whole offense is really going to be centered on
DK Metcalf and the run game. It's very similar to the arguments against Devante Adams last
year, right? We're with the Raiders where he'd fall to this beginning of the second round tier.
and if you started a draft with Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, C.D. Lamb, and then you got Devante Adams, like, yes, it did.
It tried to fight back against that Saquan Barkley heavy running back approach at the top of the rounds.
But also, you began your draft with 300 total targets between two guys.
And that's kind of what's happening here in the fourth, fifth round with D.K. Metcalf is that regardless of the quarterback production, it's a lot like Malik neighbors.
Like, who cares?
This is the first time ever we're going to see D.K. Metcalfe.
with no competition around him.
Who cares about Calvin Austin?
Who cares about everyone else trying to step up as the wide receiver two?
There's no Tyler Lockett.
There's no JSCN.
There is no one to compete for targets for D.K.
Metcab who's going to soak up 150 plus.
So it's that simple where you just take him and cross your fingers
that whoever the hell is that quarterback is going to have at least some efficient throws.
Yeah.
For me, it's probably going to be Aaron Rogers, too, if I had to bet money on it.
I'm still somewhat doubting it.
Yeah.
I don't know.
He's working out with Caleb Johnson, worked out with D.K.
Mekath.
I mean, both sides saying the right thing.
I don't know.
Could we see a Kirk Cousins there?
To me, it just seems really odd that we would go into the year with the thought that it could be Mason Rudolph or Will Howard.
To me, that seems like Pittsburgh was a playoff team last year.
They make this big splashy move for D.K.
Mekoff.
They can't seriously go into the season with those two guys at quarterback.
seriously no, but Mason Rudolph was a starter.
Well, he wasn't technically a week one starter.
That was Will Levis.
But Mason Rudolph was a starter last year.
So plus like Mike Tomlin, we know the NFL favors nepotism and favoritism.
So like Mike Tomlin, does that have history with Mason Rudolph in Pittsburgh.
Does that matter?
I think it does a little bit.
So I'm still kind of doubting Aaron Rogers plays, to be honest.
But maybe he is just dangling us along just for attention.
I don't even know anymore.
and I don't care. That's probably why I don't want to talk about it because I'm so sick of
Aaron Rogers. Yeah, me too. Let's get back to the draft. T.J. Hawkinson and Trayvion
Henderson were the next two picks. Henderson was the guy that I had circled. I really like
him as a value here in the early fifth. Then we see three wide receivers, Zayflowers,
Jalen Waddle, Devonta Smith. Then two running backs, Joe Mixon, Chuba Hubbard. You're starting to come
on up on the clock OTC. Chris Olave goes at the 510. Then it's you take Cortland,
Judd, Jerry Judy goes one pick behind you.
Chris Godwin goes two picks later.
So this was really kind of a wide receiver cleanup rounds in rounds five and
round six.
Sutton there, was that a structural pick or is that a guy you're targeting?
Strictly structural.
It was between him and Jordan Addison.
And Addison has the legal issues currently.
So I just went Sutton.
Just no reason other than, yes, I needed a wide receiver here.
Yeah.
And one interesting note for everyone, Roma Dunezay in this draft goes
off the board as the wide receiver 35.
So like Wormadunzee in some drafts, including underdog drafts in FFPC, we've seen him go
as high as like the wide receiver 24, wide receiver 23, wide receiver 25.
This room was seemed to be fading Roma Dunezay.
Just a note.
And these guys are not always correct.
But I think that you'll see the market shift this way because I think Luther
burden, the steam there, the enthusiasm Ben Johnson has for burden is going to limit the
adunzee will place.
some of the slot role.
I think it's going to be a lot more burden than a Dunezay.
So that's it.
Yeah, go ahead.
We talked about this on my show as well for everyone.
Just the fact that objectively, like this is one of the worst off seasons for any player
in the league for Romo Dunezay.
Like we want to bet on the talent, but you can't objectively bet on the situation because
it got significantly worse around him.
More target competition, a new coach, more players being involved in what we believe
will be manufactured ways.
given who Colston Loveland and Luther Burden,
look at what type of players they are.
And so it's just harder for O'Donze,
much harder, we assume this year.
So yeah,
someone I'm definitely bearish on.
So Judy and Quinn Sean Judkins go with the two picks after your Sutton pick.
Then you take David Montgomery.
That was an interesting one.
You know,
you talked about your enthusiasm for Montgomery earlier.
You get him as the running back 23 overall at the 602.
Was this just?
a value you couldn't pass up. Montgomery in the in the flex for you, it seems like a pretty fun one.
Yeah, and when he was healthy last year, who was the RB 13 and points per game. Again,
I could be viewing it differently than others. I clearly am given Jamir Gibbs ADP,
but I still view it as a complete time share since when Montgomery returned from injury,
you just ignore that. Like when Pacheco returned from injury. You throw that out of your mind entirely.
It does not matter. For Pacheco, it's different, though, because they did add a lot.
Elijah Mitchell, Breshaad Smith, like they have competition now.
Montgomery, again, there's no competition.
Who cares about the injury?
He's a completely different player, obviously, when he's healthy.
So to me, that's a really easy click because it's a weekly starter if he's healthy.
Yeah, no, I think he's interesting.
And I think right here in the sixth round, it's a very good value for him.
I would say like, and again, you don't see the board.
We'll talk about your next two picks coming up.
And I get, we'll follow up on that.
Would you have maybe changed anything knowing you would have gotten your guy in round seven and round eight?
But so completing round six, we see Adunzey Addison Pickens.
We see Joe Burrow.
We see Jalen Hertz.
Caleb Johnson.
Then I come up to pick.
Jonu Smith goes before me.
And in my pre-draft sort of planning process,
Johnny was a guy that I had circled because I think structurally he makes a lot of sense
because I can play him in the flex.
But it really seemed to me like this is wide receiver time for me,
where I had to take a wide receiver.
And I was really happy to get Jamison Williams as the 36th,
wide receiver off the board as my wide receiver too.
We talked about how there is going to be change in Detroit.
James and Williams took this big step forward last year.
He averaged 14.2 points per game on 91 targets.
He had 1,000 receiving yards.
He had seven receiving touchdowns.
For me, Jameson Williams heading into year four.
And a guy who's only been on the field for like 30 NFL games, 32 NFL games,
regular season. He's got a little bit of room to run for me, John, where, again,
I feel like I'm taking him sort of at his floor at wide receiver 36, where I think of a few
things work out in his favor, you could see him take that next step. Your enthusiasm level
for Jameson, I know you're into Amon Ross A. Brown. I know you took David Montgomery.
Your thoughts on JMO. What an odd offseason, right? All the trade rumors despite finally the first
time he stays healthy and gets actual reps in. So he, since he hasn't been a full-time player on
basically three years, all he does is deliver. All he does is get put into situations where he beats
man coverage. That's what he does. He can't play against zone, but we can certainly get him open
against man. And all he ever does is explode for big plays as we all expected. So like, who cares
about the targets? Who cares about the total catches? Because we know it all take, only takes one
catch per week. And you can start him in games we project to be high scoring. That's you just lean
that way, even in a start-sick kind of league.
So, yeah, it's tough because, again, the team seemed down on him, the entire organization
as a whole, this entire offseason.
But if he's healthy, who steps in his way, not Isaac Tesla?
Who cares?
So, yeah, I like Jameson Williams at this rate.
Again, you know you're going to start him in high-scoring games.
Yeah, no, for sure.
And I was, again, pleased to get him, but I wasn't done at wide receiver.
No.
Coming up at the 702, it was one of the 49ers wide receivers for me.
Joanne Jennings, I ultimately took over Ricky Purcell.
These two guys stood out as values.
We talked about how we think with the 49ers' offense is underrated.
But Jennings was ahead of him in pretty much every metric.
And I know at the end of the year,
Ricky Purcell had those two big high-scoring games to end the season.
And I have taken Ricky Purcell in drafts this offseason.
But for me, Jennings is just in a very good spot.
We're projecting Brandon Ayuk to be injured to start the season.
DeMarcus Robinson was something.
signed in the offseason, more of a wide receiver three, more of a wide receiver depth piece
than a guy that's going to challenge Jennings.
Jennings was the guy that we saw Brock Purdy target on a continual basis.
The target shared numbers for Jennings were high.
We saw spike weeks from him in this off season.
He just seems like sort of a forgotten player.
So I was pleased to have him here.
Your thoughts, John.
Yes.
Again, all the 49ers players as a whole are depressed, their ADPs.
Thus, we should be ahead of them.
And Juan Jennings showed us last year, out of nowhere, by the way, but showed us that
he can be a true top 12 wide receiver, a wide receiver one weekly.
And so I don't quite understand with Brandon Ayuk's injury why he's slipping so much.
He's a player I kept on pressing.
But after this draft, I'm definitely going to get higher on like a full round or two
just to make sure I get him everywhere.
And John, are you a Ricky Purcell or Joanne Jennings guy head to head?
or are you a, I want to spread it out.
If I have 20 teams, I want 10 and 10.
Like, where are you out on this hierarchy in terms of your exposure?
I'd rather be higher on Jennings everywhere.
Because again, he showed us, he can be a wide receiver one, whereas Pearsall has not.
It's very early.
Pearsall came back and was affected, but we saw with a log jam offense,
Pearsall still struggled to earn targets.
Again, did have those touchdowns at the end, but those were without Debo Samuel on the field.
So, yeah, I wanted to.
be higher on Jennings for sure, but I'm definitely going to have Pierce Hall in some spots.
So you get to the 7-11.
Basically, we see a tight end cleanup in this round.
Andrews and Joku, Engram, Colson Loveland, all go off the board.
James Connor, DeAndre Swift, and Calvin Ridley, get to your pick.
You take Aaron Jones.
So you lean into the running back position again.
Then you take Tyrone Tracy a couple of picks later.
These two picks were interesting.
You've leaned now really leaned into running back with,
this build. Are you, is this just a, the ambiguity of the New York situation and maybe the Jones
people fading him because of his age? I mean, some people fading him because of Jordan Mason,
but he ends up in a really good spot based on what we saw. Aaron Jones had a career high in
touches last year in his first year as a Minnesota Viking and they resigned him. And like myself,
I do believe Jordan Mason is going to be pretty impactful for the Vikings, but also we, again,
we're, that's projecting in May.
I don't care about even my own projections in May.
I understand things can happen.
And so what if Jordan Mason gets injured?
What if Jordan Mason doesn't have a bigger role than we expect?
I'll just take the Aaron Jones touches here.
And so I took him also because I expected Pierceall to come back.
That was naive on my part.
I expected the three tight ends before that, Ingram and Joku Loveland.
I expected one of them to come back to me.
They did not.
I don't care about Tyler Warren personally.
That's another receiver who can't get
the ball for Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones.
And so I was not high on Tyler Warren here, even needing a tight-in.
I was happy to press that.
So it was really about who got picked before me, you know,
was left on the board.
And again, running backs were left on the board.
So that's what high is on my rankings.
So I grabbed those two guys.
So then the board keeps going.
We see Tyler Warren, Jake Ferguson, Tucker Kraft,
go off the board.
But I think round eight just kind of shows this is where people start planting
their flags, chasing some upside.
You see Basial Tutin go in the,
middle of the eighth, which is higher than you'll see him in a lot of leagues, gets flag planted
there. Cam Scadaboo goes a few picks later. And Austin Martin had a very interesting build where
Austin really hammered tight end and wide receiver. Cam Scadaboo, his first running back selected.
And then he basically painted the board green. Austin, I thought Austin always has dangerous
builds. If he hits on a couple of these running backs, he's got a very dangerous build. But he takes
Cam Scatabu. Then Luther Burden goes one pick ahead of me.
I would have considered Luther Burden, but this was actually a range where I've been comfortable drafting Matthew Golden.
I draft Matthew Golden here at the 8-11 as wide receiver 44.
And for me, John, it's just sort of a range of outcomes pick where I'm targeting Golden in a bunch of draft formats now because I think the market has made up their mind that they don't like him.
We saw it in Dynasty leagues where he's the 23rd overall pick.
he's the first pick that the first wide receiver selection Green Bay's made since 2002.
But all these people hate him because he's the fastest wide receiver.
And again, I know that's not the only reason that they're hating him.
There was a lack of production.
Basically, the analytics community, I think, has gone a little bit overboard with Golden.
I think this could be a guy that is a pleasant surprise this year.
And I want to have some access to him.
And at the end of the eighth round, John, this is sort of a swing for the fences pick for me anyway.
So it's really just a, I guess it's a,
a bet on the situation, the potential to take over the wide receiver one role and the explosiveness
and the fact that the organization likes them more than fantasy managers do.
Yeah, I've been thinking about the situation a lot because I've been writing about it.
And one, like last year in the Packers Wide Receivers,
it's going to be my least favorite topic anytime it's brought up on a show this offseason.
I'm going to absolutely hate talking about the Packers.
But the point is, it's so ambiguous that I don't know if it's golden or not,
but we know there's going to be an answer, and we have to have the answer if there is an answer.
And so I'm just going to take my shots everywhere.
Like Don Tavian Wicks led this team in targets, he's left for dead.
I'm going to take Don Tavian Wicks in the last round everywhere this offseason.
Jaden Reed, we saw he was an amazing rookie down sophomore year.
I'm going to take my shots on Jaden Reed.
Matthew Golden, sure, first round pick.
I'm going to take my shots on Matthew Golden.
Also for Golden, it's the fact that with Christian Watson, likely not to play in 2025,
none of these guys can do what Matthew Golden does.
Like Romeo Dubs is historically a touchdown or bust option.
That's it.
Jane Reed has to get on the field,
but when he does,
like, you know, can deliver targets,
but also not downfield,
mostly a slot player,
at least in the Packers eyes.
And so Golden gets his targets downfield,
thus no one else wins where he wins.
And so I'm going to take shots on all of them,
just because again, we don't know.
We have no idea.
So I, you know, you bring up Jaden Reed.
I sort of like double-tapping the situation
with Golden and Reed, because I think there's a lot of smart people out there that are betting on
Golden's presence, sort of opening things up for Reed. So I took sort of a double-tap approach here
where I drafted Jayden Reed and the 1102, again, Golden at the 8-11. So I sort of am hitting
both bases of the wide receiver that we saw hit as a rookie, then Phil's to deliver expectations
in year two. But Jaden Reed is a guy that we really like the talent, not necessarily the way that
Matt LaFleur uses him. And again, I talked about the sort of Matthew Golden, but it's been
sort of a running joke here at fantasy points. I'm like, I guess the resident doesn't hate golden
guy. So I've had to get in arguments with Richard Rebar, Scott Barrett. I basically have to
argue with all these smart people. But I will, I will be the golden lightning rod. And if he hits,
maybe I'll take a couple of props here. I drafted him a couple of Dynasty Leagues too, John,
just be second round pick at that sort of draft capital. So that'll be one to take a look at for the
whole year that I take Brian Robinson.
And I would have liked to have had another wide receiver.
And I certainly considered Stefan Diggs, Brandon Iyuk, Cooper Cup.
But Brian Robinson survived the offseason.
I get him at this comfortable range like running back 29.
It's an offense that we think is going to be a very high scoring one.
Robinson would be the guy that I bet on to lead them in running back production.
And he's just sort of sitting there in Washington right now.
nobody gets excited about it, but Dan Williamson told me I actually sniped him on this pick.
Then we see a few quarterbacks go off the board.
You see Justin Fields, Caleb Williams going this round, people chasing upside the quarterback
position.
You see a number of other running backs.
You see of Stefan Diggs, Ayuk.
Then you take your first tight end.
You take Dalton Kincaid.
Basically your tight end build and my quarterback build.
We both basically waited to take these two one-off positions.
You get Kincaid.
Was this just a.
structural because you had Josh Allen get a little correlation or do you think that he's becoming
a little bit of a decent value at this sort of range. No, like everyone, I also don't even want
Kincaid, but I'd already bet on Josh Allen. And those are two separate bets. They're not correlated
whatsoever. We've seen Kincaid can absolutely suck and Josh Allen can still be the QB1. But at this
point, I have to have a tight ed. So that makes it easy to just connect the dots and grab
Kincaid. But also if I'm trying to sell it to myself, which I'm trying to do since I don't even like
the pick and needed a tight end, there is enough vacancy in that wide receivers room to where
perhaps Joe Brady finally changes Kincaid's role and doesn't make him Wondell Robinson
instead allows him to run free as they did a couple years ago in the playoffs.
Why they changed that route tree, I'll never know, maybe because he can't do that for a full
season and they've seen that in practice.
But I'm really just crossing my fingers here since I needed tight ends.
So the draft continues. We see more to your tight end selection of Dalton,
Kade sort of set off a continual tight-end cleanup in the, the, the, uh, yeah, I should have,
I don't know why, I don't know why I grabbed Josh Downstead of Dallas Goddard. Dallas Goddor, in my
opinion is one of the best values. And not Kyle Pitts, Gallis Goddard in particular, one of the
absolute best values in any FFPC room right now. I have no idea why he falls, uh, so, so long as
again, this is the argument last year, too, and he showed he's a tied in one when healthy, but as an
every down tied in and a.
tied in premium league like who cares like you'll figure it out he's in every snap tight in so i should
have grabbed dallas scotterd as well i liked your josh downs pick i think josh downs of the 10th round
is a good bet we saw him last year uh return return value on adp and if it's daniel jones i think
we'll josh downs you'll see a move up two rounds and i think it could be dan jones so that's a
whole other show so i actually liked your downs pick i understand uh your regret for dallas scotter
because i think structurally that could have helped you i get to uh uh austin martin
picking. And we see Austin take Jaden Blue, then Javonte Williams goes one pick behind him, people
betting on that Dallas Cowboys situation. I was actually shocked Austin Martin with his build, didn't
just take Ray Davis. It seems like an Austin type pick, but he said he considered him. But I take
Ray Davis a little bit early because I didn't want Mike Schope and Adam Croutworth to snite me on that.
Again, I talked about my concerns with James Cook. So I basically doubled down on the Buffalo running
back. And then I doubled down on the Green Bay Packer wide receiver a few picks later,
Jaden Reed in the 11th. 11th round continues along. We see a run of guys, you know, people
betting on Kyle Williams, Keon Coleman, Trey Harris, Jalen Wright, Jaden Higgins. It was really an
upside round. Then it gets to your pick and you take your second tight end in Mike Jaseki.
Again, structural or do you like Jaseki? Structural. Like everyone who does any amount of work
knows that Jaseki, whenever T. Higgins was healthy.
was completely useless in fantasy football.
It was only when T. Higgins was injured,
did Mike Jusiki then become a top five tat in?
But this team needs that kind of luck at Tide in.
So I said, okay,
Jasekis, but what if Higgins was injured in the preseason,
or I have him on my roster and suddenly Higgins gets injured
the first of the year, the first month of the season?
Then Jaseki then becomes like the most coveted asset
on this entire team, if not the waiver wires.
So that's the kind of, you know,
introspection I was doing with this point with this construction.
So then you take Darno Mooney and then you actually go three straight wide receivers.
Yeah.
Round 12, you take Darno Mooney.
Round 13, you take Marvin Mims.
Round 14, you take Jalen McMillan, a guy who I would have liked to have come back
to me.
Those three wide receivers, I think all were good structural catch-up bets.
Yeah.
We saw how Mims end the season.
We saw Mooney have a stretch where he was in everybody's flex for a while in FFPC.
And then McMillan's just sort of the forgotten man.
He was awesome to end last season.
If there is a Mike Evans or Chris Godwin injury,
the narrative with guys like Igbuka and McMillan changes rapidly this year.
And John, they're the oldest pair of starting wide receivers in the league.
My next three round picks go, I didn't have a quarterback.
So I waited and I probably could have waited another round,
but I'm glad I did it.
I took Baker Mayfield at the 12-11.
And then I followed up with Kyler Murray at the 3rd.
13-02. Mayfield's a guy where a lot of people are sort of betting on a regression, loses
Liam Cohen. He was quarterback four last year. I get it. But that offense average 29 points
per game. And this offseason, they re-signed Chris Godwin and they drafted a mecca-agbuka.
They're going to score a lot of points again this year. And also we had Baker Mayfield
finishing as a QB1 in 2023 as well. So I would be actually surprised if Baker is not a QB1 again
this season. And I don't need him to finish his QB4 to sort of justify this range.
And then Kyler is one where everybody dislikes Kyler this offseason.
But Kyler finishes as a QB1 nearly every single season. I don't love these picks, but I think
structurally for me, they made some sense. Your thoughts on waiting on quarterback.
And again, it's a league where a lot of people waited on quarterback, John.
Yeah, Drake May is the one to where had I known how far he would fall, then I'd probably wait for
that because similar to Jaden Daniels in this very range last year, it's just about betting on the
rushing quarterback. And we know Drake May offers that he was the QB 13 in points per game and the
full starts he made. And so like, yeah, I want to bet on Drake May. So moving forward, I know at the
back end, you know, again, you get pressed and then eventually you say like I said, well, I can win my
position. I can win a position with Josh Allen. That's an easy, easy selection every time. But at the
front, I may just wait on quarterback entirely and just take Drake May in every single draft.
Yeah, for me, I wish I would have passed on Kyler and seen if he came back around because
the Drake May, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray tier.
And Baker Mayfield, really, for that matter, you could sort of all throw them in there.
I could have maybe had an extra round.
But again, when you're picking towards the ends, you don't necessarily know when the run is
going to happen.
And I didn't want to get boxed out and jammed.
So I basically double tap the quarterback position.
Kind of finish out your build.
You took McMillan.
Then you took Austin Echler in round 15.
Jalen Nolan, round 16, Will Lutz is your kicker in round 17,
Jerome Ford, round 18, Tyler Conklin, round 19,
and then the New England defense in round 20.
Any thoughts on your end game selections,
were any of these guys you're happy you took,
or these are just sort of a best pillar available type deal?
Tyler Conklin is someone I need, you know,
still to be on a pretty hefty contract for one year.
I'll happily take in Jim Harbaugh's offense,
especially because I guess they showed they were unhappy
with what they got between Stone Smart and everyone else at tied-in,
even though I thought what they got was enough,
but apparently they did not think that.
So Tyler Conklin's a last-in guy for me in a tied-in premium kind of format.
Other than that, though, Austin Echler, Jerome Ford,
I heard our friend Fantasy Mojo in this draft,
Darren Armani, when he was on with our other friend, Eric Balkman,
on the FFPC Highest Hours hour.
I even heard him mention that this league in particular,
the Hardway draft, in the first week of cutdowns last year in Waver-wide,
was in the top 10 of cuts in all all leagues because like we are gruesome because this league
happened so early.
And so under I just understand that all these guys, the what you're showing on the screen right
now, these last seven rounds, all these guys are getting cut.
These guys don't matter.
We're going to, we're going to hang them for someone else we see better on the waiver wire
and thus the Echler, the forwards, those kind of bets.
Those are all just injury bets.
What if Brian Robbins gets injured in the preseason?
Suddenly I've Austin Echler.
I don't have to bet on him in the waiver wire.
So those are the only bets I'm trying to.
to make here. Yeah. And for me, that was sort of like instead of chasing every single tight end
name, I just went with two tight end build, which is a dangerous thing to do in FFPC. Yeah,
but I took Kittle early. I like Juan Johnson around 14. I think he's a decent bet because
Kellan Moore sort of recruited him to stay. Johnson's always been sort of a guy that we've,
John, the two of us have sort of been higher on Johnson over the years. This could be a year where he's
like tight end 15. I'm not asking for the moon here, at least be a rosterable tight end.
I like the pick.
He got 34 million guaranteed, I believe it was.
Like he better be good.
Like they gifted him all the money he wanted.
Tight end money can be silly sometimes.
You know, I think shout out Drew Sample.
But it is, it is Kellyn Moore who like gifted Dallas Godder like a heavy role when
Goddard was healthy as well.
Plus Johnson avoided Tyler Warren at number nine overall.
So I like Juan Johnson a lot.
Yeah.
So Johnson at round 14.
Then I take Rochon Johnson around 15, Xavier Ligette, round 16.
did another double tap where it was Xavier Leggett and Adam Thielen.
I double tap them in round 16 and round 20.
If Carolina's offense takes a step forward,
maybe one of those guys has a little bit of value to me
towards the beginning of the season where I try to figure out wide receiver.
Double tap defense for the same thing that you said, John,
where I know I'm going to cut so many guys.
I took two defenses I sort of like in Minnesota and Pittsburgh.
Whoever has a better early season schedule I'll hold on to.
And whoever doesn't, I'm going to pass on for them for whoever.
is popping in training camp.
Jake Elliott as my kicker.
One shout out, I'll give a shout out to Justice Hill and Josh Palmer in round 20.
I had those guys circled as endgame targets.
Of course, in this league, they both are selected.
So you get sniped even in round 20 in this league.
This was a lot of fun going through it.
John, we could have, we talked about this for hours and hours more.
But let everyone know once again where they can find your work and what else you have coming up.
Establisherun.com where I'll actually be writing an article, not in depth on this draft,
but I had some takeaways that I even mentioned on this show.
And I'll go in depth on like my top 10 takeaways from our first early, very early,
obviously.
It's the beginning of May season long draft.
And then I'll be diving heavy into the best ball streets,
getting out all those lists for everyone that they love, rankings, tears, things like that.
So yeah, just stay tuned to Establisherun.com.
Yeah, check out all John's work.
It's great stuff.
And stick with us here at Fantasy Football Daily.
We're going to have shows like this three times a week every week.
And School of Scott, Scott Barrett and I are going to be joined by Sigmund Bloom.
We're going to talk about some breakout narratives, some players that we think are going to break out,
and some players that we think might be a little bit overrated right now.
Make sure you check that out over on the School of Scott feed.
And check out Garrett Price from Dynasty Nerds.
Join me on Dynasty Life.
Make sure you subscribe to that feed as well for my Dynasty content.
We will see you soon.
