Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Football Sleepers: 2025’s Under-the-Radar Breakouts w/ Alan Seslowsky

Episode Date: June 20, 2025

Use code SCOREMORE10 at checkout for 10% OFF any subscription. Dominate your league. Win more bets. Level up your game. Alan Seslowsky joins Fantasy Football Daily to spotlight the breakout candidates flying under the radar for 2025. From forgotten fourth-year talents to explosive second-year risers, we dig deep into each draft class to find your league-winning sleepers. We revisit recent breakout success stories like Chase Brown, Drake London, and JSN—and project who could be next. Can Jameson Williams be the ultimate cheat code? Will Dalton Kincaid, Josh Downs, or Roschon Johnson take the leap in Year 3? Are Trey Benson and Keon Coleman the next sophomores to erupt? If you’re hunting for upside and want to stay ahead of the hype cycle, this is your must-listen episode. 🎧 Powered by Fantasy Points. Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/AlanSeslowsky Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. When planning for life's most important moments, sometimes the hardest part is simply knowing where to start. That's why we're here to help. When you pre-plan and prepay a celebration of life with us, every detail will be handled with simplicity and professionalism, giving you the peace of mind that you've done all you can today to remove any burden from your loved ones tomorrow. We are your local Dignity Memorial provider. Find us at DignityMemorial.ca. The Dignity Memorial brand name is used to identify a network of licensed funeral cremation and cemetery providers owned and operated by affiliates of Service Corporation International. identifying fantasy football sleepers in 2025, specifically breakout players. I'm joined today by Alan Soslowski of Roto Wire, Theo Greminger, Fantasy Football Daily, over here on the Fantasy Points podcast network. And Alan, we're always talking about sleepers and we're always talking about breakouts. And I think a lot of times people love talking about the rookies. But when we identify huge breakouts, guys who's scoring can really, really go way past where they're being.

drafted at ADP, oftentimes it's second year players, and then sometimes it's been third year players and even a fourth year breakout. When we're able to identify this sort of value in our draft, it can really take our teams over the top. So the two of us today are going to talk about one of your favorite subjects in fantasy football sleepers and breakouts, two of your favorite subjects. So how are you doing today, Alan? What do you have going on? Yeah, I like this topic because there is a little bit of a trick to this, right? Like, it's for me that the strategy of identifying like who that next guy is that's going to be on the cover of the proverbial magazine the next year, Theo, is did they have like a surge of like uptick in production towards the end of the year? Did they finish the last

four weeks strong so the overall numbers don't look as good or look, yeah, look as good as the those that last month. So this is like my specialty. I've been able to do this a few times successfully, like identify the guy. Like I remember the Mark Andrews breakout year. Like he was tied in like 11 or 12 in consensus. I was like, hmm, just,

you know, there's a case for him to be the overall tight end one. And then it happened with Josh Allen. I think it was one year where he was the QB 10 in the consensus rankings. And I looked back at it like a video and we were just, we weren't like convicted on it, but we were talking about him like, this is the player that could actually break fantasy.

So I like this conversation because it's going to get my brain thinking about the guys who, Nobody, like, loves right now, but could be the guy that makes the difference in fantasy football. Yeah, and just, like, people are going to have different definitions of what a breakout candidate is. People are going to have different definitions of what a sleeper candidate is. If you're consuming content at Fantasy Points, you're over here on Fantasy Points YouTube, Fantasy Points Podcasts or on Allen shows over at Rotowire, it's not like we're going to say a name today that you've never heard of.

This is not, you know, 2005 Fantasy Football. where I could, I tell you a player that might be like the handcuff running back that you've never heard of. This is like the information age. Everybody knows everybody. People do best ball. People do dynasty. And now we're into redraft season. But we're going to talk about players specifically who can break through tears.

And when people say, you know, some of these second year breakouts, I mean, we're not going to talk about guys like Bucky Irving today. We're going to go way, way deeper. We're going to find players that are actual potential values in drafts. And Alan, it's important when we're talking about. this year to take a look back in recent memory. And just specifically, like last year, Chase Brown is a great example. Year two running back finishes as an RB1. You were able to get him somewhere in the eighth, ninth round in a lot of leagues.

He was a massive, massive value. Exactly the kind of player we're looking to unearth. Jackson Smith and Jigba was a player that was not really left for dead, but there was like no buzz last summer. He was the kind of guy where people went in with some apprehension when they clicked the button on him. Is he going to bust? He was a big disappointment as a rookie. And of course, last season finishes as a wide receiver one.

If you want to go up and look at a guy who was being drafted highly and drafters sort of pushed him way up, Drake London was a guy who really had a year three breakout. But he doesn't really count. He was being drafted highly. 2023, though, Alan, you're talking about guys who completely broke through. Jordan Love finished as a top six score at the quarterback position. He was entering his third year as a pro. In a lot of leagues, he was undrafted.

He was a waiver wire pickup, even in some formats like FFPC, NFFC, and on Underdog, he was like a guy who could draft in round 16, 17, 18. Kieran Williams, waiver wire pickup for many. He was entering year two, had a massive breakout season. Rashad White was a guy being. drafted pretty aggressively, but not overly aggressively. He was a guy who was being drafted as, you know, say a high-end running back three type. He finishes the season as the running back four overall. And then how can we forget Trey McBride? Your classic example of a guy with draft

capital doesn't do a thing as a rookie, gets an opportunity in year two, and completely shifted fantasy football leagues in the second half of the season. So there's so many examples of this, and we're going to hope to do it today. Why don't we, do you want to, you want to start out with the, the fourth year guys? We'll go dealer's choice here, Alan, we go second or fourth to start out.

Well, just let's go too fast here first. So the, how can we predict us? What's the indicator? I told you already, like look at the last four or five, maybe six games of the season, see who popped a little bit because like,

Trey McBride, right? Like everybody was high on them and then nobody wanted them because he didn't do a damn thing. What did Trey McBride do in that off season? that we could have maybe predicted this. Like Zach Ertz at the time was, you know, was C blocking him, right? Like he was in front of him.

The same thing happened with Zachertz and in Dallas Goddert. Now we're looking at Zachertz again at age, what, 35, something like that. And he's blocking Ben Sinit. So before we get into like the specific guys, what are some of the indicators that, and we're not going to pick up on them all, but what can we look to to maybe even get a bunch of players that we're considering his breakouts?

You know, Alan, this is why I love podcasting with you because you're you're super sharp and you and you slow me down we've we've podcasted together anybody who hasn't necessarily seen alan over here on the fantasy points channel Alan and I co-hosted the sonic truth podcast over player profile together it's Alan's come on dynasty life a million times and then I've been on Allen's shows a million times so we're like you know we're talking all the time this is such a such a good point here well this is we talk like this even when we're not doing podcast like we're just trying to like figure out like forget the who it's how can we even like

get the sample size together to consider. So go ahead. So for me, it comes down to, I think the number one is potential opportunity. You look at the team situation. I think number two, which is really a tie, is talent. And the players cannot be just some bum. I think a lot of times in fantasy football, when we say, oh, this player, because he's on the depth chart,

could get this opportunity. And therefore we should draft him. but it's a player that we don't necessarily believe in the talent. Like a Rico, like a Rico Dowdle type. Or Zamir, Zemir White last year. It's a classic example. I think those sort of guys can get you in trouble. And I think situation matters.

I think situation really matters. So it's potential opportunity, talent, and then situation. Situation is different than opportunity. Situation for me is sometimes it's the teammates around them. Specifically kind of older guys. If you're surrounded, like you bring up the, Tray McBride. Trey McBride had a boxed-out situation with a with a Zacherts ahead of them.

Zacherts gets off to a fast start and sort of breaks down. You see that in the NFL a lot. You can look at, you can look at multiple teams with this. And it's a perfect. Like George Pickens, right? Like the situation last year versus this year. You have to think it's improved, right?

A million, a million percent. And they actually moved down the target tree totem pole this year. He was the one. Now he's the two behind C.D. Lamb, but we like the situation better. Yeah, 100%. And we're going to talk about, we're going to talk about Pickens. He's definitely one of the most interesting ones in year four.

So why don't we just get started? Let's get it going. So you talked about George Pickens. Let's specifically look at Pickens. Pickens entering year four. This is a player who last year, like you said, if we're going by like Fantasy Points data and you're looking at guys with a big target share, a big air yard share, first breed rate,

Pickens was all there. The problem was it was the target volume in, an Arthur Smith offense and also the quality of the quarterback play. Now both those things are sort of off the window. Dallas on paper looks like a team who wants to pass a ton. They don't have a running back that's a workhorse. And Pickens goes to play with Dak Prescott, the best quarterback he's ever played with. Positive vibes on Dak.

That looks like really like a guy who's put a lot of work in in the gym, super slim this year. That's a good player. Yeah, that's a good player. There's no, he doesn't need it. He has the resume. He has already logged. So talk about your thoughts on Pickens because Pickens is going to be one of the more expensive players we talk about here. Right now in FFPC, $350 drafts, he is going off the board as the wide receiver 30. And if you're drafting on underdog in the best ball streets, he's going, you know, significantly higher than his round six, round five, six turn price tag in FFPC.

So your thoughts on Pickens, is he the sort of player you're looking to target this? year. Yes, but specifically in, you know, roster build and team construction. We don't just like talk players, players, like how you putting together these FFPC rosters, right? And you know what George Pickens reminds me a lot, Theo, the type of player that Will Fuller was back in the day, right? Like, he used to go, yeah, he used to go right around wide receiver 30 every year, but he could literally, like, I'm not just saying this figuratively. He literally put up 40 fantasy point weeks, like once or twice a year and tilted you, you know, vaulted you two, three places in the standing. So The ideal drafting spot for George Pickens is if you have two, you know, good wide receivers with floors, not just projection guys.

And then you just start George Pickens every week in that wide receiver three spot. I know in FFPC, there's two, but you have the two flex. Because with our early wide receivers, what do we want? Like with the Jamar Chases, like if they have two or three bad weeks, we don't care. We put them in there. But once you start getting into like Jalen Waddle territory, Devonthe Smith, if they give you like a three for 38 type, a week, the second time around, you're like, oh, man, do I start him or do I start Jacoby Myers? So pickens, what's so valuable about him in our, in like the formats that we're talking

about is you just put him in your lineup, you take the good with the bad, you're going to win three or four weeks because of him. It's almost like a best ball mentality, but you just keep starting him through those lean weeks. And the reason that he could be a big breakout is hopefully they're not just going to send him as a clearout pattern guy this year, like you said, You called attention to DAC as actually a good quarterback. And man, can Pickens really light up fantasy football, especially on those weeks where teams are just like going to take out CD Lamb? Yeah.

And if you look at his potential for Spike Weeks, last year Pickens had six games over 16 points scored on a team that the offensive situation was way less appealing than what we're seeing in Dallas this year. So I think I'm with you. And I think from whether your dynasty, whether you're best ball, whether you're a redraft manager listening into this. George Pickens is exactly the kind of player we're going to look at

because the price tag is not prohibitive from him really, really breaking out. And Alan, before we take a break, I'll throw out a trend. Every single year we see a traded wide receiver finish as a wide receiver one in fantasy football. Last year we saw it with Jerry Judy, the year before we saw it with DJ Moore. And then multiple years where it was the high end guys, the A.J. Browns, the Tyree kills, Stefan Diggs, all of those guys were hitting. So we've seen this pretty much every single year. And I'm not saying George Pickens is going to finish his wide receiver one.

I think based on his draft capital, if he finishes wide receiver 20, he's a really, really good pick. But he is the kind of guy that could catch 11 touchdowns in this offense. And like you said, the Will Fuller dynamic, be a spike week guy, be a guy who is the clear number two target. C.D. Lamb and the DeAndre Hopkins role, George Pickens in this. the in the Will Fuller role. I love that, Alan. Yeah. And just one more point here is that this trend that you just spotted from the fantasy

points that is really cool because where this doesn't work out is when the wide receiver gets traded and he's asked to play a role above where he was. So for example, Corey Davis going back, you know, eight years ago with the number two on Tennessee and then it gets, you know, moves over to the Jets and is asked to be the number one. A lot of times when that number two is asked to be the number one on a trade, that's where things can go wrong. but like when the alpha is like Stefan Diggs and all the other guys you name, that's where this can go well. So actually, George Pickens is being asked to play the vice president role, right? Like he's going from being the president, the alpha to the one B.

So this is really good for him. So this I like to set up and I like that call out of a trend. Back to back seasons where he's finished as the wide receiver 35 and wide receiver 36 in points per game. I'm going to be shocked if he doesn't beat those numbers in Dallas this year. Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we're talking about Jameson Williams and his potential to take his game to another level. Welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily.

Alan, before we continue, let everybody know what you have going on over at Rotowire. I got some really amazing guests line up lined up for the end of June here, huh? Yeah, over on the, Theo's coming on the podcast, spoiler. So what we're doing over there at Rotowire YouTube page, we have the Dynasty Fantasy Football podcast. If you go over there and you see some fantasy baseball content, don't be deterred. we change over the page from baseball to football July 1st.

Also, we have a bunch of new tools and everything. I'm not going to go through all of them. But if you want to see behind Rotowires paywall, right now we have a special for your listeners. YouTube 15. Go to Rotowire.com. Put it the code YouTube 15% off. That's it.

Yeah, highly recommend all of Allen's content. I listen to it often. It's a great show you're doing over the Dynasty. Big shout out Jim Coventry came on Fantasy Football Daily with me before people really love that. show. So, Alan, let's keep this, keep this going. I just had Andrew Erickson on. And anybody wants to hear my thoughts on Jamison Williams. Jameson Williams, I talked about, made some really, really big predictions for him, as did Andrew. There's a lot of bullish people. I went over with

the ship chasers recently, Pete Overzette, Davis-Matic. They're all enthusiastic about James James. Jameson took a step forward last year. And then this past off season, this guy that Detroit did not move. Apparently there was some big trade offers for him. They decided to keep him. And the new offensive coordinator, John Morton, has said that this is going to be his breakout season. Sky's the limit sort of deal. Like, there's a lot of coach speak with James Williams. Last year, he averaged over 14 points per game. This is a guy where we know the draft capital. We know the athletic ability, explosive player. Alan, are you in or out on Jameson this year as a guy who could shift fantasy leagues? And he's wide receiver 28, so slightly

ahead of George Pickens. Let me kiss you right now, Theo. This is a good take you had right here. And I think I agree with it. And if I, you know, like we do our bold prediction shows, like towards the ESCs. If I'm going to make a bold prediction that I believe has a, you know, at least a 25% chance to come through, I would predict that James and Williams has more fantasy points than Amman Rae St. Brown this year, right?

And the reason is, is they're going to throw, they've already said they're going to throw more downfield, like the over the middle throw. That's going to still be part of it with Jemir Gibbs, with Sam LaPorte, and of course, with Ammanra. But they realize this new regime, they've had a lot of success. But to get to the next level, they've already said we're throwing downfield. And guess who that's going to be? Jameson Williams. So I would say when you talk about touchdowns, dynamism, run plays, that Jamo at this price,

he probably should be a like third or fourth round pick, like third. But that's not going to happen, right? Because until it actually happens the super breakout, people aren't willing to pay for it. So hot take is that Jamo overtakes Amman Ra is the most fantasy point. points getter. So I am with you on this one. One million percent is a breakout. Yeah, I'm, I, I hope Jameson Williams doesn't get me in trouble. I've had two dynasty startups. I've drafted him in both Allen. And like, I want a lot of access to him. I think he's, I think, I completely agree with you. This is officially a Jameson Williams podcast, I guess,

for the rest of the summer. So we'll keep it going. Let's talk about a player that's getting a lot less juice, a lot less steam than Pickens or, uh, or Jameson Williams. And that's Khalil Shakir. And this is a player that Khalil Shakir, like, okay, just to give it a quick, like, context, he was a guy that was a day three pick, did literally nothing as a rookie. He had 20 targets. He averaged

like two points a game. Then year two, takes his game to another level, averages seven points per game. And it's sort of dismissed there. Obviously, Stefan Diggs, Gabe Davis, a lot of different faces in Buffalo in 2023. Then last year in 24 takes advantage of sort of a open wide receiver room and has his best season as a pro,

a classic year three breakout, average 12.2 points for games. He's inside a wide receiver three land. And he had 100 targets. And what's really interesting about Khalil Shakir is he had the second most yards after the catch in football. This is a player like who really, really cooks with the ball in his hands, manufactured touch guy potentially, plays the slot. Your thoughts on Khalil Shakir, taking his game to another level this year. They gave him a big contract, Alan. Yeah, I think that this one is going to disappoint people. And again, you have to make your bet on which Buffalo Bill pass catcher is going to be the

breakout. And by the way, nobody knows. And that's why they're all pretty cheap. Usually the number one quarterback in the league, Josh Allen, his number one pass catcher would be pushed up to a second round pick. Like, look at the Joe Burrow pass catchers. Chase goes one overall. T. Higgins goes on the two, three turns, you know, for a decent.

amount of drafts. Meanwhile, Khalil Shakir, what does he go feel? Round like six. He's like a, he's like wide receiver. So in the underdog market, right? Yeah, underdog market he's pushed up in, in like FFPC in a couple other formats, he's like wide receiver 43. I think that the reason that he gets pushed up in underdog is also probably the most appealing reason you're taking him on an underdog is it's Josh Allen and I have a chance to get the guy who's going to lead Buffalo in targets. Even if he's not a great redraft pick, with the potential for correlation and stacking. Like, it's the best ball effect with Khalil Shakir for the underdog his ADP.

Like, but I'll say, like, I'm agree with you where I'm kind of unenthusiastic. I think that like last year, he was a fun one. If you drafted him last year, he beat his ADP. Now I sort of have to pay for it. There's just other guys around him. And they added Josh Palmer. We're going to talk about Keon Coleman a little bit later. Dalton Kincaid is healthy this year.

It just feels to me like Khalil Shakir, a guy average 12 points a game last year and probably averages 12 points a game this year. He's a really valuable role player for them because of his slot usage, his yak ability. But I don't know if he has a profile that's going to take his game to the next level. So I'd say like we're both sort of like whatever on Khalil Sharra. Yeah, well, I just, he's going to be a par, right? Like you're going to probably take him in the six or seventh or eighth round depending on the format, like you said, push up wide receiver's not. And you're going to get that production back.

You're going to be, you know, it's going to be someone that you're never going to drop. the entire year. He'll give you your six for 60. And then the weeks he gets a touchdown, you're going to be pumped. You have him. So breakout, I don't know. Like, when I hear breakout, I'm thinking, like, who are the guys that are going to get local? You know, we do our midseason draft sometimes. Like we started draft in like week four or five. And, you know, if Shakir is going in round seven, does he get pushed up to round three by a month into the season? It's hard to see that especially, though. I'm coloring a little bias because I am seeing the world through Keon Coleman glasses right now.

Yeah, I'm with you. We'll talk about Coleman in a little bit. Let's pivot over to the running back position. So we feel the same way on Shakir, right? Like, it's a fine pick, but in that range, I'm taking a tight end. I'm taking a quarterback if I missed on the elite. Like those are the tight. I'm not playing in the Shakir sandbox.

We're neutral or passing at ADP. Best ball is probably a little bit different for me. But again, like we're trying to identify guys who can shift leagues. I don't think he's definitely one of them. Let's talk about Brian Robinson. And this is one where it's always just. boring. I've had a bunch of people talk to me about Brian Robinson this offseason. And I think it's a good argument for him where he survives the offseason. Washington doesn't add a back

in the draft until round seven with Jacori Kroski Merritt. They made significant additions to their offensive line. Drafted alignment in round one, of course, trade for Laramie Tunsell. So they improve that unit. And this is a Jaden Daniels-led offense where you're going to have a quarterback who's going to finish top two in rushing yardage this year in the NFL, maybe maybe third if Fields and Jackson average more, but he'll be close to the top in rushing production. So sort of opens up lanes for running backs. And Robinson's been okay. 2023 scored a bunch of touchdowns and actually caught a number of passes, average 13.2 points per game. Last year averages 11.4 points per game. So he's kind of right on that line.

17 touchdowns over the last two seasons and hasn't really pushed his scoring up. But Washington right now has a win total of like nine and a half in Vegas. And Jacob Gibbs came on a pod with Scott and I made a point that Vegas is projecting Washington to be like a top four scoring team for they're not always right, but they get it right a lot. So are we chasing the Washington offense by taking Brian Robinson? He's pretty affordable right now, Alan. but I just don't find myself that excited about him, even at running back 30.

Yeah, you know who he reminds me of? Like, Naji Harris, right? Like where we are on him. It's just like, okay, he's not 28 yet. He's 26. He's on a good offense. And sure, I'll take him when he's there. I mean, Brian Robinson is the guy that's probably going to need a lot of touchdowns.

If Washington really is like this superpowered offense with Jane Daniels, I remember, like what, 15 years ago, 12 years ago when it was RG3 and Alfred Moore, I only thought Alfred Morris was great, but he got a lot of running room with RG3 there. Now, Jaden Daniels kind of is that RG3 dynamic back. So D.C. Brian Robinson now, a lot of these, you know, deep dive sleeper sickos like Chris Rodriguez. So he's back on the team as those, you know, so if you don't want to waste a pick on, or use a pick, I should say, on Brian Robinson, Rodriguez is an interesting, you know, you can't fit him on a typical roster. He's certainly easy to see like Brian Robinson's missing week six. Push all your money in for Rodriguez.

So he is in similar size. Like he's a big back. And I don't think anyone thinks Austin Echler is in his peak anymore, right? Like he's way past that. So I am not predicting Brian Robinson breakout, but he'll be a useful every week starter. And, you know, should be able to get yours with him. So, I mean, as a breakout, no, but it's an interesting pick given the very modest price on him. Yeah, for me, he's structural. I'm doing a sort of a zero and hero RB targets article at fantasy points.

And I wrote about Brian, Brian Robinson at cost because if I get stuck, let's say I do hero RB build and I wait on my RB 2. I can get by the beginning of the season with Brian Robinson. And zero RB, it's the same thing. If I need like that guy to average somewhere in that Brian Robinson line of 11 to 13 points per game, I think he'll hit it. But we're chasing upside here. So I agree. It's hard to make a huge argument. Would you rather have Brian Robertson?

Let's say like you built a team where Robinson's your second running back, right? Would you rather have like him or Aaron Jones is your second running back in redraft? So I think in redraft Jones is going a little bit ahead. I think that but but that's exactly it. Like it's sort of a I can get that Aaron Jones, Caleb Johnson, DeAndre Swift tier, like at a, like at a round. earlier and I think it's just a better bet for one of those guys to really give me return on value than Robinson who seems like a very structural pick. I think Robinson's just going side by side with guys like Jalen. But I'm saying you only get to pick one. That's why I asked you because the next tier up.

Right. Right. So you take Jones, right, because he is ranked the full round ahead, right? But if you don't, if you pass on that tier, if you pass on that like DeAndre Swift, Pollard, Aaron Jones tier, then you are forced almost to take like a Tyrone tree you get you get into the boring tier the Robinson Javanti Williams like isn't it funny they're all grouped together those guys that are just like the old we used to call it the dead zone they'd be fifth round picks now they're eighth round picks yeah that that's a that's a great subject and and something I'm trying to dive into the where does the dead zone start I think it's sort of like starts with Joe Mixon this year and keeps going but though you don't like Nixon you don't like him I don't know I'm worried about

him being banged up and then uh Nick Chubb in and then Woody Mark's taking away some I just think Mixon's sort of your classic Dead Zoneback, old, scored a lot last year. I mean, I drafted him, but I'm not. Chubb is the exact, again, I don't want to get off topic, but Chubb is the exact type of guy, though, that you want if you're Joe Mixin behind them, right? Like, he may not even, I mean, he may not make the team.

He can't play special teams. Damien Pierce can. Woody Marks, obviously they just drafted him. He's going to make the team. So I would say Chub is a 50-50 bet to not even make the roster. I love it. I love it, Alan. The nostalgia potential handcuffed name.

gives you a little bit of a discount of Mix. I like the argument. I just worry a little bit. I think there'll be a little more pass-happy, but another subject. He's way too old for us to talk about on this show. It's really, because you were talking about Brian Robertson,

which connects to the Joe Mixon thing, which is where does Joe Mixon belong? As he, I mean, in year 100, whenever he's in, a true breakout, because though he finished as what,

he was like a top 10 running back for most of the season, I mean, he is not being drafted. They were close. He's being drafted as he's dead already. So interesting. This is, this is true.

This is true. Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we're talking about year three breakouts. All right, welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Greminger with Alan Sisloski of Rodelwire. Alan, year three, this is a lot more fun because, you know, year four, some of these guys, we talk about Williams, talking about Pickens, you sort of already know them. When some of the players are going to talk about for year three, there's a little bit more chance for their profiles for them to run a little bit here.

Let's talk about it from the start. I'll ask you about two tight ends. Tucker Crafter Dalton Kincaid. One was a round three pick in 2023. One was a round one pick in 20203. They're both on teams that we think are going to be in the playoffs.

Which one is a better bet to have a impactful fantasy football season in 2025? I mean, if I God forbid answered this question, Dalton Kincaid, people would be punching their radios right now, right? And slamming it down to play. I don't know anybody, Theo.

I don't know one single person that likes Dalton Kincaid this year. I think I did a 16-round draft and he wasn't even drafted. People were taking upside shots. So the answer is obviously Tucker Kraft and especially you heard how Jordan Love's been talking about him saying this guy has to be a focal piece of the offense. Come on, man. You gave me such a lay-up question here.

I mean, you have to agree here. Don Kincaid is quasi-undraftable in like a typical 10 or 12-team league 16-round draft. Yeah, I mean, there's so there's when it comes. to Kincaid, I don't want to say like never say never because we do have some positivity that we saw for him, his rookie season. And Dalton Kincaid rookie year, like he was steamed up a little bit, Alan, where he was not a guy that was like a low draft pick. Of course he was a first round pick. Yeah. Of course it was optimism. Yeah. There was there was optimism. But the guy had 73 catches as a rookie. So like, you know, he's a guy who's already shown that. Last year took a significant step back.

backwards, but apparently was playing banged up. There's been some positive speak where Kingade, you know, worked on his health this offseason. I'm, I'm searching for reasons to like Dalton Kincaid this year. For me, I think it's a, we talked about Shakir. It's sort of like a, there's a, it's just an ambiguous, like, target tree in Buffalo.

Might as well take a cheaper one. And Kincaid is not like overly cheap at the tight end position. But I'm with you. It's Tucker Kraft. I've talked about like a number of smart people on Tucker Kraft, including yourself. Craft like there's the, when we're looking at tight ends, we want to find players who are going to finish as the number one or number two target on their teams. That sort of fantasy football cheat code. And Alan, with the uncertainty of the wide receivers in Green Bay, where one of them is not just running away with a massive target share.

Like Tucker Kraft, there's enough enough there where you have positivity with Matt LaFleur, positive with George. and love. And last year he took a big step forward for him to take an even bigger step forward this year. I've had some people say that he's sort of the dark horse to be like a top five score at the tight end position. Yeah. And by way, it makes me uncomfortable when you call me smart.

I think because everyone listening to your podcast here, like, they know just as much as any podcaster. Like at this point, like people that are into the fantasy points data suite and all that stuff, like the only thing they can't do is a podcast. They probably can do it. They're just as smart. So I reject the smart label because it's all relative to the audience. And the audience, you have a very sophisticated audience.

We have a bunch of dopes over at Roto Wire, so it's a little different. Just kidding. We love the Roto Wire audience. But yeah, now, back to the subject at hand. Kincaid is interesting pick there because, but it's just, you know, it's one of those things I want to see it first. And when I see it, it's probably going to be too late as a late round option. That's fine. But what are you going to do if Kincaid gives you two bad weeks in a row?

You're going to be already forced to drop them. and you don't want to drop. Was he going like in a 10th round? I'm assuming something like that, 11th round, 12th round. Yeah. So like from the specific context of rounds, I'll say that it's,

we're with some audience members might be tight end premium. Some might be PPR. But I'll say like just in that tight end hierarchy, Kraft is tight end 12 and Kincaid is tight end 13. Okay. So Kincaid for me would be tight end like 20. Like I'd rather have Zachert.

I'd rather have Hunter Henry and redraft. Then you're then you're fading him in every single draft. And then on the flip side, I'll just give you a head to head, ADP debate here. Let me pull up another one. So Tucker Kraft, you know, you say you're enthusiastic about, I'll say

Tucker Kraft or Tyler Warren. Which one would you rather have on your roster? Yeah, I don't draft rookie tight ends with any expectations there. So those guys, him, Warren and Colston Love it. By way, Warren has a chance, right? It's so easy to see like him having a chance. So I'm ready to be wrong here. But

I'm going to take, I'm going to always fade the rookie at the tight end position versus, and I would be wrong with with Brock Bowers, right? I would have been wrong with Sam LaPorta, but I didn't say I was going to get it right 100% of the time. I'm saying like, this is my 60% process, you know, and I just made that number up.

So, yeah, I'm going to take Kraft. I already like what I saw. I like how Jordan Love specifically identified him as a player that needs to be involved in the offense to make it better than last year. So we talk about fringe tight end ones in Kraft and Kincaid. Let's talk about a sort of lower end tight end two that a lot of people are circling,

as a dark horse of the tight end position. There's been a lot of positivity with Brenton Strange. And Alan, when we talk about breakouts, we talk about sleepers. Strange checks off a lot of boxes because there's a lack of tight end competition in Jacksonville. There's a lack of like a wide receiver three. Travis Hunter, Brian Thomas, we think they're very, very talented. But Brent, but Strange seems like a guy that could get enough targets that he could be viable. and he has second round NFL draft capital.

This is a guy that was highly drafted. Where are you out on Strange? Because we do see these sort of range players potentially break through at the tight end position. Tight end's been a place where we've been able to find sleepers over the years. Are you in or out on Strange? And you're a, what do you, what do you even call somebody from Jackson? Jacksonvilleonian?

A Jacksonville. A Jacksonite. Jacksonite. Jacksonite. Yeah, no, I'm a lifelong New Yorker. I'm currently living in Jacksonville. That's how I always, that's how even my, my social media profile. I like to still claim New York as my home.

But yes, Florida, we love it here. Do you see a lot of similarities? I mean, I'm probably asking an obvious question here between last year's Tampa Bay Buccaneers team and this year's Jacksonville team head coach, the two elite receivers, the distress number one overall quarterback. So, and then obviously Travis E.T.N. to Rashad White, Bucky Irving to Beaschal Tootin potentially and Tank Bigs Beat as Sean Tucker. There's a lot of like set up similarities.

So I think that if you follow that logic and subscribe to it, isn't Brenton strange Kate Auden? And that's not bad, right? Price is about the same as it was last year. You could start him if he gets hot. So yeah, man, if you're in a league where you're waiting, waiting, waiting, I like taking an upside shot here. But the problem is like with all these titans in that range is that if it starts poorly, you're going to have some real drop decisions. But I like Strange as an upside pick if you're just like rolling the,

if you're in best ball season right now, I mean, it's an easy pick. But once we get into like set our lineups, FFPC style, I like Strange as having like a KDOT-esque type of season who really flourishes if, God forbid, there's a primary past catcher injury.

What's interesting with Trevor Lawrence, if we look at tendencies, a lot of people will say this is the stupidest thing Theo said in a while. he had a tendency to hyper target his tight end. Was that a, was that an Evan Ingraham? Like Evan Ingraham is our slot receiver. Evan Ingraham is more of like a move, a move tight end and sort of an overgrown wide receiver.

Or is it a Trevor Lawrence stat? I think most, I think the smart money is that this is an Evan Engram stat. But I'll just say like with Dak Prescott, when we see these quarterbacks who are a little bit younger, get in habits. Kyler Murray for that matter is a tight end, a guy who targets tight ends.

Like, is that a static thing here? I'll say it was strange for him to hit his upside outcome. It's going to take an injury to Thomas or Hunter. That's what I said, yeah. Like same thing with Kate Otten last year. Remember he went on like a one-month heater when Godwin was out and then when Mike Evans missed some time. So, yeah, there's a lot of similarities there. He's probably not a player I'm drafting.

But if I am a little bit, you know, unsure about the tight end position, he is a player that I'm certain will be dropped in the first three weeks of the season. And then, like you said, when the opportunity of, rises there. I believe in strange. Like he had what, I think he had like a 12, he had a 12 target, 11 catch for 73 yard game against the Jets in week 15. Like the upside is there. He can grasp the ball, bring it in, score his fantasy points. So the, I'd say one of the trending players on like X,

a lot of smart people on them, including Scott Barrett. Scott Barrett has said that Josh Downs is a player he wants to trade for in every single Dynasty League. Now, year three, wide receiver breakouts. We've seen it where a player ends up like really taking his scoring to a high level. We talked about James and Williams last year, a couple years ago, this is Nico Collins with sort of the year three guy. With downs, it's not a breakout in the classic sense because last year average 13.1 points per game. He had 107 targets and 114 games played. And the metrics were there. As a rookie, he had 771 receiving yards and 60.

receptions. I believe those are all-time records for the Indianapolis Colts. So this is not a guy who is like out of nowhere. Thank you for teaching me about Josh Downs. So I'll ask you this, Alan, but he's so red hot right now. Everyone's enthusiastic about Josh Downs. I would be shocked if his ADP doesn't start creeping up throughout the summer. Daniel Jones taking over, most likely it's Daniel Jones. And we expect the offense to be way more pass happy and to have a a lot more accuracy. Anthony Richardson really struggled with his accuracy as a passer. Daniel Jones is by no means perfect, but it's going to be a little bit more functional offense in several ways here, especially for the past catchers.

Are you in or out on Josh Downs now that everybody is sort of pushing the chips in on them? Yeah, you made a lot of good points here. So the only thing that I can really add to this is like, what are we getting when we drive Josh Downs? or it's like for me, it's like I see him how we used to view Tyler Lockett in his like 25, age 25 to 28 season where there's going to be these really good weeks. Again, you could start them where you want. He is, like I said, a trending player up. But, you know, this is really going to be a quarterback dependent question. And of course, we want Daniel Jones to be the quarterback here.

But you have to figure, I don't think anyone's projecting the Colts to be a good team, Theo. So down the stretch, if they are not in a good spot, they're going to want to get a good look at Anthony Richardson. I think that Anthony Richardson, even if he doesn't start the season, we're looking at what, seven games starts. And if he can't stay healthy, you're looking at that with their late round, would pick Riley Leonard, who supposedly can't throw the football at all. He's more of a running quarterback. So I think Josh Downs has proven to be as quarterback proof as possible.

So, I mean, I'm not going to like him as much as, like, you said, Scott Barrett is and, like, push people out of the way to get him. But sure, he's a good pick in fantasy football. You know why? Because you said in the beginning of the podcast, I want good talented players. And Josh Downs at age 23, man, he certainly is that. Yeah, and it'll be interesting to see how high his ADP steams up

because you have so many people saying draft Josh Downs, trade for Josh Downs, but he still really- Which means you can't. In Dynasty, I agree with you. But in best ball and in redraft, we haven't seen like this huge ADP correction yet. So you're still able to get him as like a very low- wide receiver three, sometimes a wide receiver four.

And I think like if he's at that price, I'll draft them all the time. But if he, he becomes the riser and really, really steams up throughout the summer, then it becomes sort of a, like you said, is he a capped upside player? And I will, we bring up Tyler Warren before. I'll say with Daniel Jones, does Michael Pittman, does Tyler Warren, do those kind of guys sap enough targets off of downs where downs in like the slot role? It sort of limits his ceiling to have multiple past captures around him. And that's not even including Alec Pierce, who is the big play guy, and Adnigh Mitchell, who on paper should be a big play guy this year, a guy who's scores very highly on like average separation score was a hyper, like athletic guy and was a round two pick.

So like there's just a lot of people around him in Indianapolis too. So I'll say I'm in on downs at his current price for sure. What, pick 100? Like an FFPC? Yeah. I'm 100% in on that price. But he's already kind of broken out, right? But yeah, the price is fair because it's so, remember with Tyler, again, I brought up the name Tyler Lockett.

Like, Tyler Lockett was a perennial, like, oh, my God, he was a third round pick, fourth round pick, fifth round pick. That's where if we're, you know what? So it is kind of a breakout because next year it's so easy to see downs being in that third to fifth round. If he really does have one of those monster seasons. I mean, I was going to bring up like his 170 pound frame size, but he's already, you know, pushed that nerve. He's just good at football. Yeah, and he was a big time producer in college as well.

And I'll say with Downs, people saying, you know, Theo and Allen, like, chill on the Downs breaking out, like he's broken out. We're saying a guy who can give you a top 15 production for the first time ever in his career. And I think with Downs, it's in the range of outcomes. There's levels to this thing, man. Levels to this thing. Yeah, I mean, you know, he's already had his breakout where like he's getting drafted in the top 100.

There's another breakout. where he becomes like, you know, this a top 15 overall wide receiver in fantasy football. Yeah, there you go. I'm with you. So I'll say downs, just be careful of the steam. But if you're drafting it, like I'd say up until 4th of July,

when people start to come out of the woodwork and there's going to be more volume potential to move them up. From now until then, draft away. Just keep an eye on him rising up like two rounds. Then it becomes a more, a more interesting sort of conversation to have with yourself. Let's talk about your three running backs. We're up on downs.

There you go. Year three running backs. And an interesting one, I just dropped my handcuffed matrix and backfield breakdown article and fantasy points. And one of the more valuable handcuffs to roster in fantasy football is Zach Charbonnet. He was a second round pick a few years ago. Kenneth Walker missed his time each and every year. Charbonnet last year had three weeks where he finished as a. top eight score at the position. Seattle this year gets Clint Kubiak, who was really successful

with what he did in New Orleans last year. A lot of enthusiasm for them to be way more efficient as a running team this year. Like people think about the scoring from Walker and Charbonnet, but Seattle was like bottom eight in rushing yards per game for the last two seasons. That looks like it's going to trend up. So Charbonnet, again, Ken Walker in front of him, but he's been very, very, very impactful. Are you in or out on Charbonnet as a guy who could potentially be like a league winner if Walker misses an extended period of time? And I'll say this. Charbonnet is going off the board like pretty aggressively. He's like a round nine pick on underdog and also on an FFPC drafts. Being drafted as a every single draft as a running back three. Has the team, because this is a whole new

coaching regime over the last couple of years. Like has, had they to. that Ken Walker's their workhorse back and that Jack the same. Go ahead. The coach speak is always Walker. It's never Charbonnet. I think like if they have a love and infatuation for Charbonnet as a player, they keep it more grounded and sort of not as open. Like it's always sort of a anytime it's been a Mike McDonald, it's been Mike McDonald talking about Ken Walker. Last year when Grub was the offensive coordinator, they talked about Ken Walker. and then they used the hell out of Ken Walker last year. And I just think it's like it's Walker can't stay on the field.

And I've been drafting the hell out of Walker. But Walker is a guy who misses time every single year, which makes Charbonnet appealing to me. And Alan, when it comes to Walker, we've seen him miss like three games, four games. But what if that turns into eight or nine? Then that's the appeal for Charbonnet. Yeah. And the price on Walker isn't bad either. It's like the four or five turn type of thing.

Yeah, you can make you can argue for drafting Walker. and Charbonnet, not in the same team necessarily because they're, again, it's a big bet on Charbonnet. But I think walking out of your drafts with either Walker or Charbonnet, like, you're going to end up with a guy who's putting up big numbers one way or another. It's probably more likely Walker. But again, Walker, you're paying that fifth round price tag, fourth round price tag. And Charbonnet, I'm able to get him round 10 and around nine.

Yeah, Walker, if he didn't miss all those games, he'd probably be going in like the early third round, you know, like the Chase Browns and all that. So, yeah, I mean, it's like you have to make a bet on one or the other, right? I mean, I know people that aggressively handcuffed. What was the, I remember years ago, an Aryan Foster, the Houston running back that was like this elite. There was, what was the dude's name? People were taking them like in the fifth round as a handcuff. Ben something.

Do you remember that dude? Oh, yeah, yeah. This was, gosh, the name's not ringing a bell, but this is what it reminds me of, right? Like where the, the primary, Benetate, yeah, yeah, fine. I was about to, I was about to put that thing in on the old Google. and then it just the memory popped in my mind. Ben Tate, super athletic. The news to me is that you still use Google as your primary search. I mean, I think that- Oh, you want me on like an AI search?

Well, yeah, chat GPT is like now my homepage and it's my, you know, it's my everything at this point. I'm sorry. You know, like 18 months ago, Theo, if you would have asked people like, hey, who's using chat GPT as a primary search? Maybe in a room of 100, two people would have stood up. I think now like 25, 30% of the people. It's too off-off subject, but I saw this on yesterday. there's this guy graduates UCLA and pulls his laptop out and starts pointing to chat GPT

and showing all these papers that he wrote on chat GPT flexing that he basically, his senior year was all chat GPT. Yeah. I mean, there's obviously the like the cheating thing and there's morality to it. Like is this cheating or, you know, but whatever. But bottom line is that, yeah,

it's just funny how, you know, that AI models, open language models are being replacing Google. So all that to say is that this reminds. me of, you know, taking the handcuff five rounds later than the primary back. It's, people are making bets on one or the other. I still like Walker, so I haven't taken Charbonnet.

But I see the case for Charbonnet getting a 30% of the work there. And especially since we saw him as the primary back already be like league winner, week winner for fantasy football. So I'm in if I need to pick in or out, but I haven't drafted him yet. So I guess, you know, my 50, 60 best balls I've done. And by way, do you remember when 50, 60 best balls used to be a lot? People laugh at me now. I used to be like, like, oh, my God, you did 50.

Now it's like they do like 150 by this time. It's crazy. As while we're recording this, I'm OTC and three slow best ball drafts. It just popped up on my phone. So like, yeah. What are you going to do by the end of the year? How many best balls will you have loved? As many as I can cram in when it comes to underdog and FFPC.

I'm a slow drafter for best balls because, you know, I don't want it to get in the way of life. So it's like a lifestyle choice for me. but I'll give you best ball I agree there's like nothing no number that you can flex and people are like oh my gosh look at this high volume guy because everybody's high volume right but I'm saying five years ago I'm people I was almost embarrassed to tell people I did to do you're wasting your money I'm like no I enjoy it it's something I like I draft every day and when I forgot about that mindset the best ball hashtag best ball bro everyone's live streaming them now and I love it by the way but when I said them on a podcast like this one of the newer guys that's doing a lot of streaming Theo He started he chuckled. I said, oh, do you think? And he goes, no, dude, he goes, that's nothing because I did 60 like last week or some shit. It was crazy, you know?

Exactly, exactly. Yeah, the best ball, best ball sort of changed everything. Yeah. Let's wrap up these guys for year three. And I'll give it to you for like a 30 second response on this one because he's way low. Roshan Johnson has been a player that for a few years, there's been people enthusiastic about him, was a fourth round pick. Last year was a weird profile.

He had six touchdowns. but he sort of became that like goal line or nothing guy, 2.7 yards per carry. Does he see like a life raft with Ben Johnson there? Or is this just a wasted pick? He is what he is. I think that the easy comparison is like look at some other Ben Johnson setups where they had like a Roshan Johnson type.

And that's the David Montgomery, right? And then also you could almost see the setup where Jamal Williams was there. Right now Jamal Williams scored what, 20 something touchdowns. that role. And the encouraging thing is that the Bears didn't really add anybody besides the seventh round running back. They didn't add any of these, you know, free agents types cam acres, even if you go down that list, it's signed with New Orleans. So there's really nobody out there right now that I can think of that would disrupt what they have. So I think that you have to bet on the optimistic side of Roshan Johnson, which by the way, like, he is there, this is, he's prime

for a breakout in a sense where like, not this dynamic guy, but if they get on the goal line, And you could see, Rochon Johnson having, what, nine touchdowns. I mean, his under over is probably, like, five and a half just because that's like the same bet. But yeah, I like the Ben Johnson narrative bringing that his setup to Chicago. And that puts him somewhere between David Montgomery and Jamal Williams, right, at some point. Yeah, I mean, it would be the bet. I mean, I think like Kyle Monongai, the rookie has a little buzz. If Rochon sort of is, is meh, then I think Monongai could get an opportunity.

But right now, Rochon has like an end. game target, not the worst one. Asking about one more running back and then we're going to rapid fire guys that are entering year two. Tank Bigsby is now the third running back off the board for the Jaguars in drafts. Last year, he was easily the most efficient runner in Jacksonville. End of the year with 766 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns. Had a couple of really big games, though, Alan.

And when we talk about Bigsby, again, he had a 23 point game in week. seven, had a 26-point game in week five. So had some high-scoring outputs. And both those games, he rushed for over 120 yards. But when it comes to Bigsby, is he a guy that we're taking advantage of an ambiguous backfield by drafting the third highest drafted player? Or would you sort of prefer taking a shot on ETN or Tutin in this situation? I think the next time that we talk about Tank Bigsby will be on a waiver wire show, right?

I don't think that he's probably, you know, in the NFFC, FFPC stuff where you just have to draft like the super deep benches, sure. You want to get like what you call the ambiguous backfields where we don't 100% know the pecking order at this point. That's a good bet. But for anyone just like playing in like a regular 15, 16 round home league, there's not going to be room to draft him. And if you do, you're not going to, you know, he could be inactive week one for all we know.

So we will mention his name again if Travis Etyn gets heard, if Bachel Tutin really falls. into the doghouse and has some training camp woes. But I don't think Bigsby and all the things you said about him true, but he might be like the week seven number one obvious waiver wire pickup. That's how I'm viewing him heading into draft season. Let's take a quick break. We come back. We're going to rapid fire some year two breakouts.

Welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily. Alan, we're going to go a little bit over here. I hope you got the time because we've got to talk about these year two guys. Let's start off with the, the player that is very, very polar. rising in the community these days. And that's Roma Dunzei. Adunze was going off the board as like the wide receiver 24 on underdog before the NFL draft.

I think people were really, really excited about him. Now he's fallen right now in in on underdog and on. Why is he falling? Why is he falling? He's just like it's a, it's a reaction to Colston Loveland and Luther Burden being drafted within the first 40 picks. of the NFL draft. Isn't the talk been negative on burden?

Like people are already trying to load up. A little bit banged up with burden, I think. I think burdens hasn't really been on the field as much. I think when it comes to burden, like the speak from Ben Johnson was Ben Johnson used the words he's a stud. And like that that matters a lot. I know that this is all this. This coach stuff drives the market, whether it's true or not, it doesn't even matter.

It's like it's the same thing with like cryptocurrency and stocks, right? Like the narratives and the fear and the uncertainty and the doubt, the fud is all is what drives the prices on these guys. I thought that the things were positive for Roma Dunezay. That's why I'm shocked that you said it's falling. Yeah, it's interesting because like Loveland and Burden of both both missed time. You know, again, it's early on the summer. This isn't training camp. But younger players taking that huge step forward.

You love to see them on the field consistently. And Adunze still has slipped, though, Alan. And when you're talking about a player who's dropped about 12 spots in the wide receiver rankings, it comes down to wide receiver 36 for a Dunezay, which isn't low, but it isn't high when you were talking about a guy who was a top 10 pick last year. Of course, the scoring was really low last year. The situation was really bad. There was coaches fired in the year.

Caleb Williams sort of underperformed. Where are you out on like your enthusiasm for Dunezay at like wide receiver 36? Do you think this is a great entry point for you? or do you have the sort of apprehension? And I'll just give you a quick, before you answer this, he's going alongside guys like Chris Olavé, Jalen Waddle, Jordan Addison, Joanne Jennings, in that sort of range of the draft.

Yeah, the one player that you poked at there was Waddle, is that I think Waddle's the best value. We're not talking, we're talking to Dunezay, but Waddle, to me, is the best value in all of fantasy drafts right now. For another, yeah, he was a second round pick last year. there's a lot of different reasons and we can get into another time. But I like the O'Don's A play because I like that Ben Johnson, the head coach, has been talking them up saying like he's ready for a breakout more or less.

I'm paraphrasing there. And then also he's called out Luther Burden for, quote, being behind because of the injury stuff. And then we already had a conversation, you eye, about Colston Loveland and rookie tight ends. It's a good bet to bet against those guys, especially early in the season. So you have DJ Moore there. You have the upgraded offense. Dunesay, I mean, it's, when you talk about breakouts, he should be on the cover of the YouTube thumbnail. He should be on the cover of the magazine.

Do you remember going back a bunch of years ago before Chris Godwin broke out on Tampa Bay that it was like signs of a breakout coming, but it was Mike Evans. And that was the year Chris Godwin finished as like wide receiver two overall. I think that Roma Dunezay in this offense, if Ben Johnson can reproduce what he did in Detroit, he's got the chance to be a top five wide receiver. Oh my God. I got him in round, you know, like it's round seven or whatever it is. And he's, you know, we're a month in and we're in September and he's wide receiver three on the year. He was a top, you know, it was a top 10 pick in the real NFL draft. Everyone liked him.

Had a disappointing season relative to where he was drafted. And now it's all set up in it. You said in the top of the podcast, one of your breakout indicators is what's the setup? The setup is right there. I know it seems, quote, crowded. but for 2025 where Burden is a little behind already. It's got a rookie. And then DJ Moore already, you know, had a down season.

Not saying DJ Moore is going to be bad or anything. But man, Roma Dunzei is a player that I'm like pushing people out of the way. I'm proactively drafting him. Yeah, it's interesting, Alan, because I think at wide receiver 24, it would have been way too high for me to draft him. But it's the more people sort of beat up the profile, the more it makes me want to take a couple of shots here. Oh, yeah.

Just as it's sort of a. range of outcomes thing. And if burden does miss time, then I think that the threat of adunze not playing inside in the slot, like, sort of goes away. And I think Ben Johnson might move guys around and move different players in the slot. But adunze had the highest slot rate besides Keenan Allen last year among the wide receivers. So like, he's got it in the profile to be sort of a big slot. We had Matt Harmon on this show. Matt Harmon was was very, very optimistic about adunz. So I'll say like I'm sort of neutral. I like hearing you be bullish on him, though. Yeah. Let's, let's keep it going. one player who you're really enthusiastic about, who's sort of a little bit of a post-type

sleeper here, Keon Coleman. Keon Coleman last year, people were a lot more enthusiastic about than this year. We talked about the crowded situation in Buffalo among targets, but Coleman has become a really cheap player to get, was a top 40 pick, big young wide receiver, big time production of Florida State. Oh, man. Keon Coleman was about to have a mega breakout when he got hurt last year. In week six and seven last year, Theo, and what he had together, he had one game, he had 125 yards. The next game, he had 70 and a touchdown. And then he gets hurt.

And he said he just never felt the same after that. So, you know, we talked about the top of the podcast. Like, we need to like, if we see it and then something happens to disguise it, that's a breakout indicator. Keon Coleman, man, he has the profile to really break. fantasy football. It is so easy to see him emerge as Josh Allen's number one target. And now we're taking him at like pick 11 next year, pick like 14 next year. I know it's hard to envision it right now because he didn't have that break fantasy

rookie year. But go back and watch highlights. You don't even watch film. Watch the YouTube highlights. I know that's like a dirty word in fantasy football analysis. But go back and watch those two games and tell me if you didn't see a player that was basically an alpha wide receiver and playing with the best quarterback in the NFL, not named Patrick Mahomes. So Keon Coleman, he is a true breakout. And I, you know, again, I would take him ahead of Shakir.

You don't have to, but I, it's so easy to see him being like a top 20 pick in fantasy football next year. Yeah, Keon Coleman for me, this is a really easy one to click because he's so cheap and he's different than a lot of these Buffalo wide receivers. So like I like Coleman. I think that there's pressure on him in Dynasty where he'll really, really fall. But the price is like wide receiver 53. And I'll say, I mean he'll really, really fall if he doesn't deliver this year in Dynasty.

But in redraft and in best ball, like I'll take tons of shots on Coleman. We talk about building Josh Allen's stacks here and building correlation. Coleman is so much cheaper than Shakir this year. And last year they were going like side. by side. So like I'm, I'm with you. I think Coleman, I love seeing you enthusiastic on him. Yeah, well, Theo, Theo, you said earlier that your, your colleague, Scott Barrett, is buying Josh

Downs and Dinusiness. Right. The problem is nobody selling. Kiann Coleman is for sale, right? You can go, hey, I'm going to go into this neighborhood and buy a house. But if there's no for sale signs, you can't get anything. Not that people are looking to move Kion Kulman, but you can get into someone's inbox, tell him you need a receiver, and figure out a way where they're suggesting Kian Coleman. He is acquirable. Whereas, you know, again, I love that Scott called out Josh Downs, but every, you know,

like when a lot of podcasters are getting on podcast saying Josh Downs, Josh Downs, it's a way harder to buy. So I think Coleman should be on your number, when you're doing dynasty buys, when you're doing redraft values, breakouts like there should be a lot of Coleman. The price is just, it's not, there's no cost to find out. What is he going? Like the seventh round of FFC, I'm assuming? No, Coleman's going way.

lower. You can get, you can get Coleman, uh, somewhere in like the 11th round. 11th. Oh my God. That is just, so that 11th round round? That's not going to last. He'll be an eighth round pick by August. There you go. Alan Soslowski flag planting Keon Coleman. Uh, Alan, let's keep this going. Trey Benson's a guy who has a ton of scheme right now. If you just, uh, look at some of the news coming out on Trey Benson, all of it is positive. It's a guy who at the beginning of last season was a third round pick was being drafted side by side with James Connor and early best balls. Of course, that looked to be ridiculous as the season started. And Benson was running behind of Amari Di Mercado.

But this offseason, it's been sort of a, Trey Benson can give us sort of a dual RB1 status, they say, like, Trey Benson's a guy who's going to be a breakout for us. He's going to help our run game. Arizona extended James Connor two seasons. He's going to be 30 years old. But at the end of the day, like Trey Benson, do we go back to the profile? another Florida state player that failed to deliver last year, Trey Benson,

you're having to pay a pretty significant price tag for him for a true handcuff, but you're still able to get him like in that round 10 range in some of these drafts. I found myself drafting a lot of Trey Benson as like my RB5 on underdog drafts in best ball. Where are you out in your enthusiasm level for him in redraft? Is it a guy that needs a James Connor injury?

Or is it a guy that can carve out out a weekly role as sort of a like an emergency RB2 emergency flex play for you. You took the words right out of my mouth. I was going to say, does he need an injury? Probably, right? Like, I understand taking shots on year two running back. So yeah, I think he's somebody you're going to want on your roster. If, you know, especially if you believe James Connor has, I mean, he's been pretty Ironman

isish the last couple years. The last year. But so he played last year, it's sort of, he was a 16 games played. and in 2021 he was 15 games played. But the other seasons around him were 2012, 13 in 2022, 13 in 2020, 13 in 2020, 10 in 2019. So like Connor does miss time every single year but one in his career. I'm sort of in on Benson this year.

Yeah, I like him. But like when we talk about breakout, it's like that's the title of this podcast. Is he the type of player that is just going to push James Connor? Let's say there's no injury. Is he going to play himself a hit to be the alpha role? It's tough for me to see that. Sure, he's the RB2 on a roster. So if the starter gets hurt, we're going to want him.

But when we talk about true breakouts, you see Trey Benson getting drafted, like where Chase Brown is, Trey Benson is where Chase Browns. I don't see that. Last year, Zach Moss started as the starter on Cincinnati and Chase Brown just took the backfield, right? It was happening. The injury happened. and now there was no looking back.

It's hard to see, although I'm not saying no. It's hard to see Benson as I want him, but I don't see him as a true breakout upside guy. So we've seen J.J. McCarthy sort of creep up in drafts. I want to ask you about a quarterback being drafted behind him. And that's Michael Pennix, Jr., who's being drafted outside of quarterback two land. He's right around QB 26, QB27, in some of these FFPC drafts.

all of the other year two quarterbacks have people pounding the table for them. You know, we can't even, it's not even worth us talking about Caleb Williams, Drake May, Bo Nix, Jaden Daniels. Like these guys are already established where they're being drafted. They're all being drafted as QB 14 or better. And now J.J.J. McCarthy's starting to creep up in these drafts. But with Pennix, he's just sort of being left there. This is a guy who has talent around him, Bijon Robbins.

Robinson, Drake London. Last year, we saw Darnel Mooney have a really big year. I think that the offensive coordinator is sharp over there. I think Zach Robinson, I was wrong on. I was sort of negative on him to start the year. So I have enthusiasm about the Atlanta Falcons offense. Should I also have enthusiasm about Michael Pennix Jr? Because when we're looking for guys who are sleepers and could break through, like what's the percentage chance? Penix is draft as a QB 26 and finishes as the QB 12. And some of the ADP I'm looking at, and this almost looked wrong to me, Theo.

Is Tua going ahead of Michael Pennex and a lot of these drafts? I can't even believe it. Yes, he is. Yeah. Okay. So there it is, right? Like, the only reason you would take Tua in previous years is because he had the two elite receivers. We already talked about Waddle and then, you know, Tyreek is a little bit more of damaged goods. But, man, you set up the Michael Pennix thing. Right. He's the one that could elevate to the next level. I'm not sure. I mean, you have to rank, if you look at all the players ahead of them,

I understand why they are, but here is the argument to wait on quarterback, right? Like QB 26, you said, Michael Pennix with a good setup and a good offense and still has still young and with Drake London, who is going on the one two turn. Yeah, I know it's so easy to see Pennix being a top like 15 option. And if you just wait, wait, wait on quarterback, I'm not even sure in most home leagues that Pennix is going to get drafted. So what a good callout is a breakout there. I love that one, Theo.

Yeah, Penix is just interesting to me because he's, like, he's the forgotten man, even though, like, why do you think that is? I think it's a lack of rushing upside for him. And I think with the other guys, like with Drake, Drake May, it's easy to see it. Bo Neck's easy to see it. Jane Daniels, obviously. Tua doesn't have it, though. J.J. McCriffy doesn't have it.

Among the guys. So McCarthy's got, he, McCarthy's athletic. I don't think it's like a zero sum. He gets the minister. soda bump because everyone's like, oh, look what happened with Sam Donald. That's, that's what's booing. Like if, if J.J. McCarthy was the quarterback on the Tennessee Titans, he would not be ranked where he is right now.

Yeah, Penix has a huge arm. And I think that a lot of the, one of the great arguments for panics, which seems sort of simplistic, but all of the guys that were around him at Washington failed to deliver last year. The Roma Dunzei, Jalen Polk, certainly, like, McDaniels definitely fired off last year. But it's a, when it comes to like the Roma Dunezay, Jalen Polk, both those guys being drafted inside a round one and round two,

not delivering. Did Michael Pennix deserve a little more credit for Washington success? Was he the elevator, right? Was he the elevator? Yeah, no, that's a really good strong point. Wasn't there a third wide receiver at Washington with him that's in the NFL? Or did I have that wrong? So it was Polk, there was Roma Dunezay,

and was there another pass catcher there that we're forgetting, that also was disappointed possibly? Oh, yeah. I mean, from the bucks, Jalen, uh, Jalen, uh, Jalen McMillan. Oh, McMillan, right. Of course, McAllen. Yeah, I said, right. Okay.

And McMillan was in such a good. Right, but he was in such a good situation, right? Like it took that. Yeah. So, no, I love the, um, that the idea that Pennix was the elevator. And look, he got drafted ahead of, people were shocked when they just signed Kirk Cousins that year to a mega deal and they take Pinnock. And wow.

So yeah, you know what? Maybe Pennix is like a true break. Like when you talk about like one breakout at each position, I would plant my flag on Pennix, man. I really liked that you added him to this show. I think that is going to be the victory lap clipable moment for you. Let's go lightning round here. I think we're both enthusiastic about Pennix.

Yeah. Jatvian Sanders, who last year flashed a little and Ben Sinit, who was a huge disappointment. Senate was a second round pick. J.T. Sanders was the first pick. on day three was the number one pick in the fourth round. Sanders sort of has the tight end room to himself right now with Tommy

Trumbull banged up in Carolina. We think Carolina's offense going to take a step forward. Sinit's sort of chilling. He's a big time athlete, but again, he's boxed out behind Ertz. Which one of these two, if you're looking for an upside tight end selection, would it be? And are either of these guys worthy of a breakouts discussion? Yeah, you said lightning round. So I think Sanders is the answer here.

Everyone loved him coming out. it was a little disappointing that he got the was it round four draft capital but bryce young looked good enough for me to be optimistic on Sanders and there's no clear alpha right now in you know i guess ted mcmillan well tec millin well texman but i'll say there's no there's no wide receiver two like we could have talked about zavier legett but it's like zavier legett jell and koker Adam Thielen. Is this the Tucker craft corollary where all of those guys sort of cannibalize each other for wide receiver two?

And Ted hasn't done anything yet. I mean, still, you know, he's got to be assumed that he's not going to more than he's going to as a rookie, right? Like, I know we could have optimism.

He's being drafted as such. But Sanders, like you said, it's even if he's the second most targeted player. Yeah, that's a true breakout right there. And Senate, I'm no good on Senate because of the blocking.

Senate feels like Luke Schoonmaker, like a guy. I was way too enthusiastic. And I'll take an L. A lot of people will love to point out my enthusiasm for Senate last year in rookie drafts. Yeah, I took Senate. I think that I'll take the L on that one. I think it's Schoonmaker all over again.

He's a big move tight end. He's probably going to make a ton of money in the NFL as an athletic, like, number two, tight end. But he's not going to be a guy that elevates fantasy football teams. Sanders is interesting, though. And then there's also this team with Jimmy Horn, a six-round pick they took this year. So, like, they have all these wide receivers they like. Carolina. Ted McMillan's going to be the leading target earner. There's a chance JT. Sanders is a sneaky number two target this year. I think he's a really good pick. Last player to talk on.

We talked about Trey Benson. Are you in or out on Marshawn Lloyd this year? A guy who was a third round pick last year. Alan, I know that we talked about him from a when we were doing a lot of Dynasty podcast together. We certainly talked about Lloyd last year as a upside handcuff, a guy where if Josh Jacobs goes down, Lloyd is going to be a guy who affects leagues. Now you're able to get Marshawn Lloyd somewhere in the end of round 13 and round 14, I think he's a really fun handcuff. There's others who point out and say, not so fast, Emmanuel Wilson's still there. Lloyd might be a wasted pick. Where do you fall in the Marshawn Lloyd? Is he an upside handcuff? Because I'll say, if we can give him the handcuff job, then I think that the argument is still there.

Josh Jacobs takes on so much volume that Jacobs could potentially go down this year. Like, Jacobs again, like he's 27, but he's taken so much volume throughout his career that he's almost like an older, like an older 27 year old. And it sounds like a stupid thing to say. It's a lot of miles, a lot of calories. A lot of, a lot of tread on the tires. Yeah. I mean, old timers like to say.

I have a 2016 car that has 60,000 miles on. I know people that have 2020 cars that have 260,000 miles on. So it doesn't matter how old you are. It's not the years. It's the miles, right? That's right. That's what is. I also, it's very.

I know that we consider Green Bay a running team, but now look what they did. They added two receivers if you count Savianne Williams as a pass catcher receiver. Maybe now they're saying, like, we need to pass more because that didn't really work last year. And it's also, if Jacobs misses a game, it's easy to see both guys, Emmanuel Wilson and Marshawn Lloyd sharing. So people are dropping Emmanuel Wilson in the Dynasty League, so I've been picking them up for a buck. That's the bet I'm doing. It's very difficult when these guys like just miss all this time and then miss a whole year.

like Marshawn Lloyd does. Like, I don't think there's many cases of them coming back and being a fantasy football dominant, especially right away. I'm sure there's a couple examples. So Lloyd is not a player that in the 60 drafts I've even thought about once. But I'm open to being wrong there too. I like that we had the discussion. Yeah, I can't quit Marshaun Lloyd.

I think I might be really chasing a dream there. But when I see him available, like sometimes in the 15th round, I can't help it. I will bet on him beating out Emmanuel Wilson and winning the number two, job there. He was such a good player and such a strong senior bowl. People were sort of head head over heels of that senior bowl performance. So I'm in there. This was a lot of fun, Alan. I know I kept you about 15 minutes longer than we had used to us, but the conversation is so money. It's not the 15 minutes you kept me extra. It's the 10 minutes late you were for your own podcast. That is unacceptable. Well, let's let's, you know, we can talk about, we can talk about this.

I will back myself up. I went in the DMs and I saw that there was a stream yard link. And it was, I was, I was waiting on Alan to jump in the room and then I realized that I didn't send the new one. It was an old stream yard. Okay. All right. You've heard this. You've heard this before. You know,

we're getting into the process here, Alan. Paul was that. So I'm going to use a dirty word. I hope you don't get it. But they say excuses are like assholes and most everyone has them and most of them stink. Well, there you go, Alan. Let everybody know once again where they can find your work. I'm going to be on Alan's show over in the Road of Wire.

YouTube. Make sure you check that out. Let everybody know what you have going on. Yeah, that's what I was going to promote. I was going to promote your appearance on the RodeWire Dynasty Fantasy Football Show. That is what's next Friday's date? So today it'll be the 27th. 27th, yep.

Right. So June 27th, we do it live on the Rotoir YouTube page. But if you can't watch us at 10.30 in the morning, Eastern Time, Sharp, Theo. There's no being late to my podcast. No, no. We just locked the door if you're late. And then that'll be on the audio podcast feed and, of course, on the YouTube page. So that is the only thing I want to promote other than if you,

want to check out any Rotowire premium stuff. YouTube 15% off any subscription. Check out my backfield breakdown article over at Fantasy Points. It's free. Check out Jared Smola on School of Scott this week with Scott Barrag and I. I like Jared. Jared's awesome. So he's going to be on, so it's you, Scott and Jared on that podcast?

That was one where it was mostly Scott and Jared because I had a, I had an issue. It's been a weird week for me, Alan, over here. Yeah. I'll say, I'll say Davis Maddock came on this podcast. highly recommend that. We talked about the zero, zero RB strategy this year. That was a great episode. And then we have a bunch of episodes lined up.

July is going to be a massive month for us here at Fantasy Points, Fantasy Points articles, Fantasy Points Podcasts. Make sure you subscribe to Fantasy Points YouTube, too. Who is your, if you could have any guests in the world on your podcast here? Like, it didn't matter how big they are, athlete, media person, or just a fantasy person. Who would be someone that you haven't had on this podcast? that you would like on at some point. Well, you said haven't had on. So I was going to end the show with like a cold close.

I was going to say it would be Alan Sislowski. No, no, give me a real. But then you add that the haven't had on. That's an interesting one. I'll say like for all the fantasy football people that I've podcasted with over the years, I never podcasted with Evan Silva. I think he would be interesting the podcast with. That would be sort of one.

But I don't know. I'm living the dream hero, Alan. I'm talking with guys like you and we're getting it done here. So I'm, I can't. really think of one. No, no, you said, Evan, Evan's a good one because you and I've been playing fantasy football for a long time. And, you know, whereas a lot of people consider like the Matthew Berries of the world, like the O.Gs, the goats. And he is. Like, he started this thing. Evan is like pretty close to like one of those founding fathers. Like he's almost like,

like the connection between like the really old school guys like Barry and like the new foreign media. Evan really is that transition guy. Because obviously he was doing this type of stuff when nobody else was and he was stood the test of time. So it's still one of the best. Yeah, no, no, 100%. But we're lining up some really cool. I have some cool new guests coming on in July. A lot of cool articles coming out.

Make sure you check out Ryan Heath's recent article. Who was your worst podcast guest ever? Worst that you've had on the show. I'm only kidding. I know you won't answer that. No, I would never, I would never answer that. But I'll tell you, I'll tell you off air. It's from years ago.

So anyway, stick with us here at Fantasy Points. We're going to help you crush your fantasy football leagues this season. Make sure you check out everything. Allen's doing over at Road of Wire, and we'll see you soon.