Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Football Week 2 Recap: 10 Things You NEED to Know!
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Made it!
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NFL week two reactions.
Today we're hitting Ryan Heath's top takeaways of week two
here on Fantasy Football Daily
on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel.
Ryan Scott, it's been a great day of football.
The return of the defense or the defense strikes back.
If whatever Star Wars title you like, just throw
defense in there. It was a crazy day of defense. I think out of the 13 games, 10 unders hit on the day,
which I'm guessing dropped fantasy football scoring quite a bit this week. How are you guys doing?
Yeah, I thought my day was already ruined because it was a brutal DFS slate where it was just,
you know, ugly and kind of boring, honestly. And then no, actually my my day got ruined by
yet another awful Star Wars reference that I don't understand. I don't want to know. I don't
Ryan, come, come help me out here.
It's like I'm not a Star Wars geek or anything.
That's like the most surface level Star Wars reference ever, though.
It's like the title of one of the movies.
Thank you.
Thank you, Ryan.
It's not that deep of a cut.
Revenge of the Jedi.
Now that would be Revenge of the Sith.
Return of the Jedi.
The Empire strikes back.
You know, just put defense in any of those.
We're good.
It's all.
Yeah, defense was crazy today.
but more importantly than that, it was like...
You and your Star Trek, Brett.
No.
It's not start...
It's actually offensive to say that to a Star Wars nerd,
to call it Star Trek and vice versa.
Yeah, absolutely.
They never think they're way better
and more cultured than each other.
It's one of those things.
Yeah.
I turned my nose up at Star Trek.
That's bull crap.
And they do the same to me.
So if we could stay on task, though,
defense, big thing.
Injuries a big thing today.
It was a blood,
bath out there. We have a brutal list of injuries. A lot of these have big time fantasy
implications. Sequin Barkley, Dallas Goddard, DJ Moore, Nico Collins, RICO Dottled, Jaden
Daniels, Caleb Douglas. Ryan, do you have any thoughts on the above? Yeah, man, some of these
are going to be difficult. Like, Sequin is getting imaging done. So we're going to have to
see with the Eagles backfield, uh, Tank Bigsby we saw in an early down.
roll so if Sequin misses time he could maintain that sort of value the Jedarian price injury was
extremely tilting we got price like leading the backfield through the first three quarters and then
a manual freaking Wilson gets to run out the game when they were blowing out the Cardinals and rack up 58
yards in the fourth quarter so it just made like prices entire stat line and day like a lot worse
and a lot more annoying.
Yeah, these are just some absolutely brutal injuries this week.
Finally, the running back started getting injured, though.
I did notice that.
That hasn't been the case for like the last year and a half in fantasy football.
It's not only the wide receivers now.
Well, I think this is the most important takeaway from week two is there are a lot of really
important fantasy relevant injuries.
So I was talking to our guy, Jeff Mueller, really think he's the best injury expert in the game.
he said, Caleb, I know it looked really bad.
He was crying.
He was screaming in pain.
But really just kind of looks like it's probably a grade one hamstring or a grade two hamstring.
So depending on the severity, he's going to get an MRI to determine it's either he's out two to three weeks or he's out four to six weeks.
Sequin probably a stinger is probably only day to day, but could be week to week.
In which case, Tank Biggsby looks like a mid-range RB2, I'd say.
Dallas Goddard probably out one to three weeks.
So definitely boost Devontas Smith in the interim.
DJ Moore probably just day-to-day.
Nico Collins is a two-to-three-week injury.
So he's probably out again week three.
So fire up Dalton Schultz is a mid-range, low-end, tight end one.
Rico Dattle out one to three weeks.
Jalen Warren had basically a 100% snapshot after he went down.
So he gets a big boost.
Jaden Daniels is going to be, if they want to be conservative, which Jeff recommends, he should be out for the year.
If not, if they want to be risky, still looks like a five to six week injury.
Caleb Douglas, he was seen in the locker room with a boot.
Jeff thinks it's a high ankle sprain, so he's going to be out a couple of weeks.
Maybe that's your opportunity, Brett, for Bell to take over.
You said he had round one tape, but, you know, was coming back from an ACL.
So he's a little bit behind the eight ball in comparison to Douglas.
maybe Smolique Washington who steps up.
Mike Evans left with a hip injury,
but that was, you know,
fourth quarter of a blowout at garbage time.
Doesn't appear to be serious.
That's what Kyle Shanahan told us.
Janarian Price,
we're still kind of waiting on news.
RJ Harvey's probably back week three,
but J.K. Dobbins is probably out a number,
probably another one, two or three weeks.
So obviously Jonah Coleman,
who we were all over in our waiver wire episode,
is going to be, you know, the hottest waiver wire ad this week and rightfully so.
The Chargers tight ends.
David and Joku possibly picked up a season ending injury.
Charlie Kohler, we're kind of unsure what that is, but that could be a big bump for
Arrondi Gadsden, and then Alec Pierce suffered a heel injury.
I don't really know the details about that just because we're recording as that game's taking place.
Wow, I mean, there's so much in there.
Wait, we could do a whole episode just in the end.
Yeah, it is crazy.
And how do you pivot?
Where do you go from here?
The WaverWire episode this week, guys, is going to be absolute fire because there's lots
to take care of in there, but.
Well, I can't tell you how many texts I got.
I'll read one from my cousin.
Brett's theory on Badgant being a better Ben Johnson quarterback is really about to
be put to the test.
That's your theory.
No, it's not.
This is what you said.
When did I say Badgett would be better than Killard?
You said that multiple.
Where's our video clipper?
Can we pull that up?
Where's our court stenographer?
I think this is classic Scott, like taking me a little out of context.
I probably said something like Badgett would be better playing in structure,
better getting the ball out in rhythm.
That's not the same thing as better in totality.
But this is embarrassing.
backpedaling from Brett. I'll say one thing. It's not backpedaling at all. I'll say one thing.
It I think it's going to be better for Luther Burden, which is what really matters here.
It couldn't be worse, so. Brian, I'm sure you have the stat. What was Luther Burden's
target share with Caleb and then what was it with Badgant? Uh, yeah. So with Caleb,
it was again this week, Caleb Raymond, uh, leading the bears in usage, leading them in receptions,
leading them in targets.
And then Luther Burden on just that one last drive with Tyson Vagin at the end of the game,
had four of his seven targets on the entire day just from Bajun on that one drive.
So yeah, possibly.
For 35, which is his only production for the day, right?
Effectively, yeah.
Yeah.
So I don't know how much you want to extrapolate from one drive.
I feel like I often do this when we get like one.
drive of a backup and then sometimes I'm disappointed the week after taking that angle.
But yeah, I do think there's possibly something to it.
I think more so, though, there's something to Caliph Raymond was not just a one week wonder.
The usage actually went up for him.
He ran more routes than Luther Burden did this week.
That wasn't the case in week one.
In fact, Roma Dunzei was back in a full-time role running the most routes of anyone on the team.
So Burden was a close.
third in usage and in playing time.
So yeah, I don't know.
Of course, like the offense didn't do nearly as much this week as it did in week one.
But if we're sticking with the thesis of this Ben Johnson offense could be the most important
in the league.
However, whoever has the most important pieces from the Bears is going to win in fantasy
football this year.
It's another week of Caleb Raymond potentially being one of those pieces.
So I think in the maelstrom of the.
all the injuries and all the craziness around the league, I think Raymond continues to be kind of a low
key waiver wire ad stash guy that I want on my benches. I put him on many of them last week and I
think that that was right. I got laughed at by some around the industry in thinking that it was
even a possible thing that Caleb Raymond could continue being relevant. But I think it again,
I continue to think he could be. Yeah, at a bare minimum, he carries contingent upside and
the case of an injury to either Luther Burden or Roma Dunzeh. And it's yet another sample of the
improbable occurring again. I don't know if this is Ben Johnson trying to be too smart or if it's
Press Taylor just being really dumb, which is all we've ever seen from him. But I don't like it.
And I don't want to believe that this, this, you know, carries over for another week. But I want to go back to, like, the actual
X as a nose here. Brett is slippery and elusive and hard to pin down with his actual takes,
as you can tell. We call him the eel. We call him the eel. So Brett, what actually is your take
here? Maybe it's not an overall upgrade for the offense because Caleb is a freak athlete.
A ton of EPA with his legs. But maybe pass EPA improves. Maybe we should expect more complete
more PPR upside for the receivers, more accurate throws, which you've always been very critical of Caleb.
So why don't you tell the viewers exactly what you think?
This way, they can write it down.
So next time you try and lie to their faces, they can call you out on it.
Yeah, I mean, this is going to come with the slight caveat that that Caleb was playing decent.
Like, he was playing pretty good.
In a game, they didn't have a single touchdown?
I just mean in general this season, he's playing decent.
You know, he's, he's, he's been a little better running the offense so far.
Really only bailing from clean pockets occasionally instead of all the time.
So that's good.
That was good news.
But yeah, I do think what you said, the PPR cheat code, I think with Bajon, that's probably true.
I think, especially, you know, Ben leans into that early down passing, that first and 10 passing so much.
I think Bajun is just kind of made for that.
I think the, you know, his ability.
to play in rhythm, play with instructors. He's proven in every opportunity he's got to play in the
league, whether it's preseason or in substitute time for the Bears. So I think that's probably
better. I would worry that the past volume, though, does come down a little bit, right? At least a
little bit. And they ham, I mean, DeAndre Swift and Kyle Munangai look awesome. So I could see Ben
just totally leaning on those guys. It also, I'm like, I'm not actually sure how hurt Caleb Williams is.
It sounds like a grade one tear probably.
If he's walking around the locker room unassisted, that's probably a good sign for him.
Maybe he misses a game or two.
I don't know.
But yeah, I think Ben,
if Ben Johnson keeps the pass rate the exact same in Tyson,
Bage is the quarterback,
I think that's probably better for Luther Burton and Kayla Freeman.
I wanted to ask you a question, though, Scott,
because you said it would press Taylor is dumb for making Caleb Raymond the focal point.
Why is that?
Because Luther Burton is insanely talented.
Colston Loveland is insanely talented.
What is Burden done to prove he's insanely talented compared to Killifranes?
He had the best rookie season yards for route runs since Odell Beckham Jr.
A route run very similar to Caleb Raymond throughout his career.
That's one of the most predictive metrics we have at our disposal.
He's an elite after the catch.
Caleb Raymond's route runs about the same.
There's nothing Caleb Raymond does better than Luther Bird.
You think you know that?
Tell me, what does he do better than Luther?
No, I'm just asking you think you actually know that definitive.
I don't know. I'm getting texts from from my league sources very critical of press Taylor.
There's probably many reasons. I just wanted to know why specifically that one stuck out.
But anyways, we don't, we can move on.
Do you think the bears should run their offense through Khalif Raymond?
Or do you think they should do it through the guys the drafted round?
I would run it through Rome and Colson Loveland.
I would run it through Roman Colson Loveland, which is what I said all offseason.
So.
But I don't think it's inherently dumb that that.
Caliph Raymond's this has been this involved through two weeks.
My,
uh,
my Tyson Badgant take is that he has better right arm genetics than Arch Manning.
You said that last week.
I said that a couple of weeks ago.
And, uh,
and he's proof that Jean-Baptiste Lamarck was right and Charles Darwin was wrong.
His,
his dad is a,
like one of the best arm wrestlers of all time.
Ryan,
what is your actual Tyson-Bagent take?
That's what I want to hear.
I mean, I agree with what Brett was saying in terms of very often when we get these more like pocket passer style quarterbacks that aren't going to scramble around as much.
What we see is a much higher percentage of the dropbacks turn into actual pass attempts and into actual aimed attempts.
So Caleb is not actually statistically like one of the worst QBs in the league in terms of converting dropbacks to attempts.
but he was like bottom half.
So that's like the idea of going on the extremes are like Justin Fields,
Malik Willis.
So many of their dropbacks turn into sacks,
turn into scrambles,
turn into throwaways.
And it just sucks out all of the production from their passing games.
Caleb was nowhere near as extreme as those two guys.
But I do think it makes sense to think that Bejant will be better just in that sense.
but yeah in terms of is it i think it's probably at best a wash for all of the receivers and all of the
bears passing game pieces um and and i mean at worst it's they just completely double down on
being as run heavy as possible to which would not be that big of shock to me so yeah i don't know
that i'm actually if i'm a luther burden bag holder which yeah i certainly am i don't know that i'm
actually celebrating this whatsoever i don't think that this is i don't think that this is i i don't
don't think like that it's a good thing that that he got targeted four times on the must drop
back drive at the end of the game no it's not you got to add context to it too it was a it was a final
drive in basically like where the other team is playing a run the clock out defense they're forcing
the ball to the middle of the field to run the clock out the bears had no timeouts they ran like 11
plays in a minute and this crazy scrambling trying to score before the clock expires there
there's not a lot to actually extrapolate from that really if you go watch the plays it's
minnesota sagging off literally giving up the entire middle of the field on every dropback so i i
wouldn't wouldn't extrapolate too much out of that so yeah i would again i think i think it's an
upgrade for for luther burn in it's it's not just what you brought up you know converting dropbacks
into completions or whatever it was but it's also you know just the fact that caleb has far and
away the highest time to throw of any quarterback and this is true day
getting back to college.
He, you know, in rhythm dropbacks, you know, he'll just, he'll just bail from the pocket.
And so that's tough for a Ben Johnson who wants to design and scheme things up.
And you see it, we were talking about, you know, Luther Burden's like 3.0 yards per route
run, but since the start of last season, it jumps to 4.0 far and away highest on the team
on in rhythm dropback.
So, so like, yeah, maybe it's not an overall upgrade for the offense, but I think we could see,
I think we could see Tyson,
imagine, you know, do exactly what Ben Johnson wants, which I think, yeah, we'll see more,
more dump-offs, more, you know, short throws to get the ball out quickly to take advantage
of Luther Burden's elite mistackle force metrics and elusiveness. But, yeah, I don't know. I guess,
I guess we'll see over the next few weeks. Yeah, actually, just to be specific and accurate,
There's two of those four targets on the final drive were saggy coverage.
The other ones were legit.
Made it!
Part of the Beast is the must-see adventure of the year.
It's just you and me, boy.
One of the most extraordinary on-screen brunt you'll ever see.
I'll get you home.
Brad Pitt.
Part of the Beast.
September 25th.
Get tickets now.
New from Nespresso.
Blend wellness into your coffee routine with the coffee plus range, infused with functional benefits.
Choose the coffee you love.
with added B vitamins, like coffee plus B12 to help support immune function,
and coffee plus B6 to keep your day moving.
Or go with the flow and choose ginseng delight.
Our new double espresso with ginseng extract.
Whatever lies ahead, don't change your morning.
Let your morning change you.
Discover coffee plus on espresso.com.
From morning hockey with a cup of coffee to timbits and road trips,
Tim's and Canadian Tire have always gone together.
Now it's official.
You can now earn Canadian tire money at Tim's.
Link your triangle rewards and Tim's rewards accounts
to earn twice with every Tim's run.
Terms and conditions apply.
Visit timhordens.com slash triangle for details.
All right, let's move on.
New England Patriots backfield.
We want to talk about this.
Travion Henderson made his season appearance with a bang, literally.
Got shot out of a cannon on a play for a long touchdown.
Were you a Travian guy preseason, Ryan?
Were you one of them?
I was not.
I went through like such a ride on the Patriots backfield.
There was a time when I was like, we should just draft both of these guys or always draft one of these guys in every draft.
The team was so efficient.
You can get them relatively cheaply.
It's ambiguous what's going to happen.
But by like the end of the offseason, I was pretty much at the point of I just think Remandre Stevenson's going to have most of the workload.
And that Henderson is a bad pick was like my final stance.
So yeah, I mean, that's looking a little bit rougher.
for me here coming out of week two because yeah in henderson's first healthy game this year of course
romandre starts it off and gets the first chance to fail but he does uh he fumbles on the first
drive and from then on uh just excluding garbage time at the end of the game it was a 76 percent
carry share for travion uh had his big 39 yard rushing touchdown uh on the following drive when he first came in
And yeah, it was Stevenson getting the scraps, just 24% of the carries after he fumbled on that first drive.
Only one target the entire game.
And interestingly, according to at least our preliminary route charting numbers,
Henderson ran more routes than Remandre Stevenson, which is also a pretty rare thing.
Just going back and looking at every game last year.
this was Henderson's highest carry share ever in a game with Stevenson healthy and active.
Just the third time that he ran more routes than Stevenson did in a game with both of them fully healthy.
I think Scott had mentioned that to be fair, the other two times were also games in which Stevenson fumbled.
And then the usage didn't carry over into subsequent weeks.
The coaching staff seemed to have a pretty short memory in terms of Stevenson fumbling.
So I think ultimately, like there is a chance that this doesn't matter in week three or week four.
But there's a chance that it does.
There's a chance that this just completely flipped the backfield.
I would mention that Henderson wasn't particularly effective or efficient after that big touchdown run in the first quarter for the rest of the game.
That was most of his rushing yards were on that one play, which not to say like, oh, he wasn't even good if you take away all his good plays.
I would never say something like that.
But I think in terms of how the coaching staff is feeling coming out of that game, that that could be relevant.
To your point, Ryan, he averaged like two yards of carry after that, after that play.
So I mean.
Well, isn't that who he is, Brett?
Isn't that who, what you always like he's, if you give him four yards before contact, he'll take it to the house.
And that's like a rare valuable trait and why he got drafted around two.
But outside of that, he's like inferior to remandre in every aspect outside of.
of ball security. He's kind of like Jemir Gibbs without the nut sack, you know?
I do remember you saying he, he was a wissy in your prospect right up on him.
Exactly. Yeah, not great between the tackles. He's not a very physical player, but if you give him
space, he's freaking electric, that's for sure, which is so confusing why the man had zero targets
in the past game, Ryan, but especially in a day where Drake May, actually, it's like the fifth
consecutive day where Drake may wet the bed and played like utter dog crap.
You'd think they'd want to give them some easy button throws to a very electric player in
space, but I guess we're not allowed to use them like that. I think this is really this,
this backfield is always frustrating to me because Rabel's so sensitive to negative plays,
like really, really sensitive. We saw this last year. Yeah,
yeah, exactly. Belichick was we know Josh McDaniels is. It's like if one of them blows a pass
pro assignment, he's bent for the game. If one of them fumbles the
he's benched for the game.
And it's just like, you just never know when one of these guys is going to do something
that cost him the rest of the game.
And Remondry, a couple of his carries even came in garbage time late.
So like this box score stat line could have been worse for him if the Patriots weren't, you know,
blowing out a washed Aaron Rogers.
Yeah, I'll be honest.
I really don't think this matters.
I think at least not until like he fumbles again and maybe even again.
But yeah, we saw the same thing happen last year.
we've seen it in the past with Patriots running backs,
like Lawrence Moroney and Ben Jarvis Green Ellis.
And I don't know, were they just like, oh, you fumbled?
All right, you're dead to me.
All right.
You're in the dog ass.
You're not touching the ball again.
And then, oh, next week, okay.
But yeah, like this follows like a whole off season where, you know,
Greg Bedard was in my mentions and a number of Patriots beatwriters saying, like,
yeah, it's really the Ramandre show.
He's the guy.
And you saw that when both running backs were fully healthy last year.
or even just the playoffs.
It was really like a 60, 70 split backfield in Ramandre's favor.
So I don't know.
I'd be surprised if this represents a true flippinging.
Yeah, just to add one last point,
I think the danger and because I was with you all off season on Ramandre, Scott,
but the danger in our thinking is that they spent a top 40 pick on Travian,
last year and he had a very good rookie season 900 or what 1100 scrimmage yards and nine 10 touchdowns
it's an excellent in a part-time role for a top 40 pick so actually i don't i don't i don't
really agree with that um he he went off without remandre in those games where uh it was against
bottom five run defenses and and then josh mcdaniels runs a man gap scheme and travion had
the second best yards per carry in outside zone.
But if you remove those, he was fairly pedestrian, certainly inferior to Remandre
Stevenson.
And, yeah, Josh McDaniels calls outside zone at one of the lowest rates in the league.
And then on top of that, volume is efficiency.
And so just the fact that in the playoffs, when it mattered the most, he wasn't on the field
at all.
He was a rookie.
He was a rookie who couldn't play on pass downs.
Who, as you just said, was drafted in round two.
Yeah. A rookie who couldn't play in passdowns.
I wouldn't expect him to play in the playoffs.
Yeah, that doesn't surprise me.
And they were better off for not having him because their on-off splits were egregious.
I know what the point I'm trying to make is the analysis by you and I is crude and with the idea that players don't develop.
Right.
Yeah.
He's a top 40 pick who had an incredibly successful season from a volume standpoint.
Every beat writer is saying he is in the doghouse.
We discussed this time and time again.
writers don't know anything about anything they don't understand what's going
yeah you're just guessing that hey maybe he's dramatically better when it seems you
know i'm not guessing he's dramatically better at the training who are at practices watching
say otherwise i'm not guessing he's dramatically better i'm saying that it's there's a chance he is
dramatically better i'm not saying this means sure but i'm saying a game where remandre fumbled
and every time this has happened in the past they did exactly what he did today doesn't really tell us
agree I do agree with that yeah all right number three is Bryce young for real let me save you guys some time no
287 passing yards today it's his second game over 200 yards in a row it's got to be a record for young Bryce
did you get so you I love that you said that because that that was exactly where my brain went to when I was
writing my usage thread it's so if you actually go back to last year's playoff game
and week 18.
It is technically four straight games in a row of over 250 passing yards for Bryce Young.
250.
Yeah.
Wow.
Four games in a row of 35 plus pass attempts and 250 plus passing yards,
averaging 24 fantasy points per game over this span.
Before that, he'd gone over 250 back to back just once before in his entire career.
So we've got four in a row here.
And it's not just the production that I think is raising my eyebrow.
It's also just thinking back to the Panthers last year,
this was like the slowest-paced team where they beat the Rams like just by not running a bunch of plays.
And like by dragging the game out and minimizing or sorry,
maximizing the variance,
minimizing the number of plays.
Just trying to do their best to scam teams and win in that way.
Right.
But that's like not what.
we've seen these past couple of weeks.
And if you want to throw the last two
games of last season on as well,
they've actually ratcheted up the volume,
dropped back a ton in a game against the Falcons that they were leading
throughout,
they easily could have said,
we're going to give Chuba Hubbard 25 to 30 touches.
That's not what they did.
That's what I would have expected going in.
So yeah,
I guess two questions is,
is Bryce Young legit like as a player?
And also,
is this change of philosophy for the Panthers legit because that has implications not just for young but also for all of their past catchers.
It would make Jalen Coker, Teteroa McMillan, maybe even Darren Waller potentially fantasy relevant pieces for the rest of the season.
So yeah, I wanted to just bring that up and pick your guys' brains on it.
Well, he looks good.
I was joking when I said no.
Like he legitimately looks good.
So I think some of the pace things, Ryan, could be incompletions.
Like they're, he's throwing a bunch of income, even going back to that Rams game.
I think he had like a 52% completion rate.
It's like, well, he was like 21 for 40 or something.
Like that's going to slow the game down.
Inevitably, like you're going to get more pass attempts because you're thrown in
completions.
So, um, I do wonder if that has something to do with it.
But I think he looks pretty good.
So yeah, I'm going to use the same argument you just used on me, Brad is like, hey, guys,
develop guys get better and he has what looks like a great supporting cast with a healthy tett mcm
mcmillan jalen cocker they look awesome um and yeah this is a former first overall pick you know
and it's like people wrote off baker mayfield they wrote off sam darnald they wrote off gno
smith and so maybe brys young is the new jones yeah maybe brice young is the new reclamation project
I will say, though, Ryan Statt, he's over 250 passing yards in four straight games.
250 passing yards really isn't a lot.
And then before that, he went under 207 passing yards in 14 of his previous 16 games.
So I think there's an improvement, but it's also like there's a far away,
there's a big jump from, you know, like non-viable from a,
fantasy perspective to good. And he did just face the, the Falcons and the bears and the bears.
Yeah, bad defense in this last one, like a lot of red zone drives great starting field position.
Yeah, I test he looks good to me though. Did you see the throw he made to Xavier Leggett today,
the bomb down field? Well, that's the interesting thing about him is he's actually always been great with the deep ball.
certainly by our metrics,
hero throw rate,
accurate throw rate,
catchable throw rate,
not a ton of volume on that,
but by all the efficiency metrics,
you know,
it's kind of top five in all of them.
Ryan,
anything else on Bryce who we move on?
I guess just on the Panthers,
I do think that this could be very condensed.
I think last week I was making the comparison
of Jalen Coker and Tederoa McMillan
to Chris Oliva.
and Rashid Shaheed.
It's like the former round one pick,
the undrafted free agent that's always like perennially underrated.
And it just is like matching the round one pick
in terms of efficiency and usage week after week after week.
So I do wonder if Coker and McMillan could be that kind of one A1B
this whole season.
I wasn't that excited about it before when I thought that the Panthers passing offense
might be non-viable.
But yeah, the two of them had fixed.
53% of the team's targets through two weeks.
So if it's going to be condensed,
they're both really good players can young do enough to make them viable.
I think so is kind of just the conclusion that I'm leaving with.
So, yeah, stock up on Jalen Coker.
Yeah, the whole offense is taking shape, right?
Like even if Xavier Leggett can give them that occasional big play potential
and Darren Waller is a good red zone threat,
like they actually have like a pretty well-rounded unit,
a little shocking, to say the least.
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All right, let's move on to Cleveland.
They have a pair of rookie ride receivers that both look freaking awesome.
They look like they're both dudes.
We got Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion.
Ryan, what do you have on those guys?
Yeah, so last week I notably owned Curseweck online
for tweeting about Casey Concepcion.
being unviable, not good for fantasy because he was stuck in a slot only role,
running fewer routes in Jerry Judy and Denzel Boston.
I'm just kidding.
Chris is a genius.
He projected the Browns perfectly in week two.
But a notable development here.
Jerry Judy ran fewer routes than Casey Concepcion.
So it only took one week for that to flip by our preliminary numbers right now.
through these two games, Denzel Boston, Casey Concepcion, tied for the team lead with a 21% target share each.
And I think, like, importantly, while Boston has made some really nice plays,
but 70% of his fantasy points have come on these two big touchdowns.
Today's was fairly impressive.
I don't know.
Maybe I didn't realize how much juice Boston has, like, after the catch.
the like him like coming down with it breaking tackles that that was like a really nice play to me that
like stuck out in my mind throughout the day um but yeah i think i i don't want to like go crazy
because dischaun watson sort of operated the offense this week and who knows how long that uh continues
and is consistent but these are another two like it's just an exciting pair of rookie wide receivers i'd be
really excited to have Concepcion or Boston stashed on my bench. I you think just with the weird
like injury runouts with Carnell Tate being stuck on the tight ends like all all of just how this
rookie wide receiver class has shaped up it wouldn't be that surprising if we're in week 17 looking
back and it's like wow yeah the the two rookies that the Browns drafted were actually the late
season wide receiver hammers that you needed so yeah I think that
That's like way more in play to me than it probably was before the season started.
I was a Concepcion guy.
Scott and me were both saying to draft him in the late round every time.
Brett, I know the biggest conceptional guy.
So that part's like a mutual around the circle, pat on the back.
But yeah, Boston himself looked pretty awesome to me too.
And the usage has been there.
I was also a Denzel Boston guy.
Sorry.
Go ahead.
No, you go ahead.
Well, I think it's worth mentioning that this was,
Deshawn Watson's best game with the Browns by by EPA per dropback it was his best
game since 2020 which I don't know was that was that Obama era 20 how how long
ago was 20 pre-COVID days that was those Biden Trump era okay was the iPhone
invented yet 20 it just feels like forever a pre-chat GPT okay there you go since the
fall of the Berlin Wall Ryan
So I have a theory here that that Casey Concepcion needs Shudor Sanders.
And like when we get Shudor Sanders, he's going to be the guy.
But now with Watson, Boston gets the boost because Watson's a little bit more gunslinger,
whereas Shadur is more checkdown.
You saw that last year with Harold Fannon.
I think Fannon average like seven fantasy points per game more with Shiger than any other
quarterback, you know, a large part due to the screens, the short area work.
And so it's Rich Rebar has this great take on Deshawn Watson that like him and Russell Wilson,
the game sort of passed him by where, you know, we live in this too high, too high era and,
you know, Gunslinger Watson, Russ Wilson just couldn't adapt.
And so yeah, I kind of think you would know better than me, Brad, is like I feel like play
styles uh watson suits boston better and shudder suits kc better but i'll also say yeah this was
watson's best game and like other than that we have a sample size of uh i don't know 23 games
i mean watson averaging 180 passing yards per game over that so like i don't know that it's always
going to be this good for the browns where like it's always actually been awful um what do you think
bread or is it just you think these rookies are nice and you know they can yeah i mean i think in
2020 i'd say watson was he's not a gunslinger anymore like his that is a dot today was he this is
like yeah his eight out today was less than four is got is what his a dot today was less than four
oh was it yeah oh wow i would not have guessed that yeah yeah i mean the big play from boston was a
catch and run as ryan laid out like that was all all of their big plays actually were catching runs
So Watson just ran the offense today.
He was basically like late stage Kurt Cousins, kind of doing the same thing.
Cousins is still more of a gunslinger.
Trying to think of another comparison.
It's, do you think Cooper Rush, you know, very similar to Cooper Rush.
Well, yeah, like that's what I'm saying is like Cooper Rush can't support Drake London and Kyle Pitts at all.
So it's.
I'm just talking play style.
It's Cooper Rush.
It's like, okay, okay.
Going to get through my progression, hit my checkdown if needed.
The checkdown is the best option most place.
Do you think the Browns are better off with Watson or Shadur?
Well, from a team building standpoint, I'd play Shadur.
I need to know what I have in him before I draft the quarterback number three overall next year.
So what about just for for offensive competence?
Like did you see enough from Watson in this game to overlook the previous four years?
Yeah.
So this is what I was the version of Watson we got today is exactly what I was hoping for.
If you remember, D. Bro and I did a preseason week one review.
you. And I talked about Watson on that show.
This is exactly what he did in the preseason.
Just ran the offense.
Like just back foot hits, ball out, not a lot of scrambling, avoid sacks, just that
kind of stuff.
And I think, yeah, I think this is good for like PPR scamming.
Like, I mean, they had five receivers with five plus catches today in KCC,
Fannin and Boston.
So like, yeah, I think you'll see that every week if we get this Watson.
Will the explosive play, will there be enough of them to get like those,
Peak weeks those wide receiver one weeks from anyone those tight end? I don't know probably not but I think you can get the PPR scams going
All right. Do the Chargers suck? I right dude. I don't know. That's that's my question to you Brett
It was like insanely spread out in terms of the target show this
Distribution or disgusting gross blah
Yeah, which is like how much do you want to account for early? Yeah, I
put that on lad was playing injured wearing a flack jacket was a game time decision we didn't know that he was
for sure going to play until like after the 1 p.m. games kicked off uh so i think that could be part of it
in that in week one uh justin herbert went from top five to bottom one in adjusted net yards
for attempt with and without lad mcconkey on the field in week two how much can you really involve him
in the game plan when he's like really beat up and probably afraid of contact and not not wanting
to take another shot to the ribs so i think they're like in a tough spot from that angle um but yeah
i don't know like you tell me brett what what did it look like to you was ladd super limited is is that
kind of thesis that i just laid out uh correct or or are the chargers just bad is or did we hashtag fall
for it again with the chargers in 2026
I want to say one thing, like this game is not on Justin Herbert.
It's not Justin Herbert's fault.
For one thing, Lab McConkey was in the Flag Jacket, like you said.
The other thing was his girlfriend tweeted out the Brunette, Taylor Swift, tweeted out that he had to stay at a hotel last night because their apartment was getting fumigated.
And Justin Herbert, as we all know, is a really light sleeper.
And so the people on the floor above them, they couldn't rent out the penthouse.
It was too late notice.
We're making a lot of noise.
They were kind of stomping around.
And so Justin Herbert didn't get his typical eight hours of sleep.
He only got six and a half hours.
So like, you know, if Justin Herbert got eight plus out, like they would have curbstomp the Raiders.
So really, really not Justin Herbert's fault.
Yeah.
Producer Trey, make sure not to tell you how to do your job, but every time Scott just said if in that statement,
like it needs to come up big on the screen, like impact font.
That's what that's what I'm looking for.
I know you're, I know you're chomping at the bit here, Brett, because you tried to tell us many times over heading into the season.
And now here we are the chargers of the second team in NFL history to lose back-to-back games by double digits with both coming at home against teams that had a sub 200 win percentage.
The other was the 1926 Racine Tornadoes.
Or if you want to go by by teams that just drafted bottom three or top three in the draft.
the first ever.
So we're making history here, Brett. Go ahead.
Yeah, it's still too early to fully take victory laps.
It's only week two.
But I tried to tell you guys about Mike McDaniel.
This dude is a Ponzi scheme, a total scam.
In fact, like the data was there for us with Tyree Kill on the field.
He runs a top 10 offense.
Top seven and EPA per play.
Top six and EPA per dropback.
Top 10 in success rate.
Without Tyree kill, the wheels just fall completely off.
and he's somewhere between 28 and 32 and all of those metrics.
And when you look at the play sequencing, the play design, it's just, it's not real NFL, man.
You can't do what he does.
And, oh, he's one of the most stubborn, run aggressive play callers in the league.
That's what's really funny is in this passing era that we're living in currently.
I'm surprised he became such a, like, so beloved by the analytics nerds because he's so
run aggressive. He always has been. Even with Tyreek, he was run aggressive, but it worked because he
had Tyreek. And now you pair him with a dinosaur head coach and Jim Harbaugh, who's also a run
aggressive defense, rah, ra, run the ball guy. And guess what you have? You have a team that
would run Omari and Hampton into a brick wall 22 times. But hey, they got that one explosive run out
of it. So it was worth it. And then a quarterback and Justin Herbert, who just never seems to know how to
run the freaking offense. And yeah, can he make the throwdown field that makes your jaw drop
once or twice a game? Absolutely. Can he actually run the offense? No, no. He's looked like crap
these two weeks, by the way. Even when Ladd was healthy last week, he looked bad. So why can't he
run the offense effectively? I'm just starting to wonder if it's an intellect issue, Scott.
Wow. Yeah. So what does this mean for fantasy? Let's just say my thesis is correct. Mike McDaniel
stinks Justin Herbert is just perennel perennially if boy what does this mean for
fantasy was this mean for lad and Amari and Hampton and QJ by the way QJ's got like 12
targets on the year and two catches yeah yeah hilarious we can we can put QJ
to bed right now right can we can we do that Scott yeah yeah hey hey I
capitulated before the start of the season so I not a full L I get like a 20% I'll
take sale it's fine yeah hey I think he probably has like four X the targets on the
year that Marvin Harrison Jr. does so you can you can throw that one back
of me yeah yeah um I think maybe the I'll throw this at you guys I think maybe
if we're going with Brett's thesis of the Chargers are gonna suck I think the
most actionable fantasy item is sell high on O'Mary and Hampton because he scored
18.5 fantasy points this week
I guess it's the same thing as Brett was saying last week where I think he continues to look nice on some of these carries where he can just go straight forward and bowl over guys.
And that that was again kind of what the touchdown looked like and had like a nice highlight run there.
But the usage to me at a glance was similarish to week one where Keaton Mitchell played a little bit in the, or no, Keaton Mitchell didn't play at all in.
the red zone this week.
But it was still like a 75, 25 type of split.
There's not like a clear passing game lean toward Hampton, which was kind of my thesis on
him coming into the year.
So I think he is probably in your average matchup or average game script.
He's probably a lot more like a D'Andre Swift, like a basal to in like David Montgomery,
a Bucky Irving, like that tier of running back, than he is.
may be perceived as right now given where he was drafted and his pedigree and everything like the
the usage is a bit better than those guys but if if the offense is just going to suck then that
probably comes out in the wash so that's what i would throw at you guys to discuss he's also fumbled
in back-to-back games right yeah yeah yeah that's true um i feel like i always have to caveat this
because i get people in the mentions i think umarian hampton's an awesome talent i think he's a really good
football player. He's just not great for Mike McDaniel's scheme. This has been my big concern all
summer. So, you know, if they have a change of heart and they're like, hey, we're going to run
duo on 60% of our carries, I think wheels up, Armine Hampton's going to smash. That has not been the
case. I even just looked while we were sitting here talking. It's like over 50% of his carriers today
were on outside zone. And he averaged like three yards per carry on those. And then guess what?
on the gap on the duo runs he freaking smashed and it's like i don't i just throw my hands up at some
point you know but what do you think got uh i mean like i i just kind of trust you on this i
i pulled the stat up uh in august when you first started talking about it a marian hampton last year
in zone average 3.19 yards per carry ranked second worst the 49 running backs in man gap
he averts 5.35 yards per carry ranked fifth best of 49 running backs.
One must think that, you know, maybe that's even more exaggerated that difference this year.
And yeah, yeah, so this is what you're saying is like Mike McDaniel, you know,
stubborn in a number of ways is not a good stylistic fit for his, you know,
most talented running back, maybe second most talented skill position player.
And yeah, that's a concern.
And like maybe he's just a Tyreek Hill merchant.
because, I mean, dude, Tyree Kill made a lot of people, a lot of money, made a lot of people look like geniuses, perhaps undeservingly.
Matt Nagy to a tag of Avaloa got the bag.
Alex Smith went from, like, you know, less a man, more the archetype of the checkdown Charlie limited arm strength quarterback.
And then one year with Tyreek Hill leaves the league in deep passing yards by a mile.
Yeah, I think he's a Mount Rushmore wide receiver, a total math changer.
And yeah, I think what we're seeing, too, by the way, you ask for fantasy, is it seems like Ladd is in the Tyreek role, at least insofar as like the offense can't function without him. But with him, it's actually kind of good. So yeah, like for fantasy, if this is as bad as it going to be and Ladd gets healthy, I think he's going to be awesome. And then if the offense is anywhere better than like the bottom five offense that's been, you know,
wheels up for him and maybe Hampton and maybe Quentin Johnson for bestball.
But yeah, I'd say I say lad is the one guy.
And I still kind of feel good about him as a potential buy low.
I think on our Wednesday, I'm going to talk about trying to buy low on him.
All right.
Let's try to do a little bit of like a lightning roll.
Let's try to keep the next four things and like five minutes or less.
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JSN is awesome.
In the show sheet it says JSN is fantasy's wide receiver XXX question mark.
I just want to point out a ridiculous thing.
He scored, he had 150-something yards today in three touchdowns,
despite the fact that his team ran the football 40 freaking times.
That is like insane.
It's like it's uncanny.
I've never seen anything like that.
And it's every week, it seems like.
It's almost impossible.
This is like my favorite stat.
I tweeted out like five different times and like no one cared.
But JSN had the best yards per team pass attempt,
receiving yards for team pass attempt.
It's, you know, we don't have yards per route run from the 1970s, so that's our best proxy.
The best yards per team pass attempt since Lance Allworth, Bambi himself in 1965.
What he did was so impossible.
And I'm like, this is the biggest regression to the mean candidate of all time.
We have to get these other wide receivers involved.
It can't be this 50% yardage market share every single week.
And no, now it's even more exaggeration.
It's like you said, you run the ball 40 times and this guy still has 180 yards and three touchdowns.
I said last year, this time last year, I'm like, JSN is 150 to 1 to win MVP.
Like, I think he should be 20 to 1.
And then at the end of the year, I'm like, honestly, if I had an MVP vote, I would put it on JSN.
And that's exactly where we are again.
Like he's never going to win MVP because the voters just, it's the best quarterback with the best record and
the best EPA per dropback. That's the name of the award, basically. But like, look at what he's
doing with Drew Locke, who has otherwise always sucked complete, utter ass throughout his entire
career. And it's like, he's the only thing working. Defenses are selling out to stop him,
and it just doesn't work. He's just unstoppable and incredible. And like, where would you take him,
Ryan? Where are you taking JSN? Are you taking him above Jamar Chase?
Are you taking him above Amun Raus St. Brown?
Are you taking him above Puka Nakuwa, who's dealing with an injury?
Is he the overall wide receiver one?
Are you taking him over Bijan?
Like what what what's going on in the world today with JSN?
this seems impossible, but lo and behold.
Yeah, I was planning to cop out of this answer by saying,
oh, I don't know like Pukinakua hasn't played yet in week two,
but he probably isn't going to.
You're right.
He potentially re-aggravated his injury from the preseason, according to Jeff Mueller.
So, yeah, I don't know.
Maybe JSN just is the wide receiver one for the rest of the season.
If you can do a 42% target share in 155 receiving yards with Drew Locke,
then who am I to sit here and say that he's not?
Yeah, I guess he's the 102 behind only Jemir Gibbs,
if I was redrafting today is how I feel as I'm sitting here in this moment.
So yeah, is it an overreaction?
I don't think so based on everything he showed us last year too.
Let me ask you this then guys.
Why, how did we fall astray with him?
Is it just the Kubiak thing scared us a little bit?
Like him leaving?
Because he dominated on a level we just don't see very often.
Like Jamar Chase comes to mind, but it's been a while.
So like what happened?
Yeah.
So we do that sometimes where it's like, oh, this hyper-efficient
is so unreal. It's unsustainable. And it's like, let's not lose sight of the fact that
is two seasons before that weren't, weren't all that impressive, mediocre, I'd say. And then it's like,
yeah, do we really have a ton of trust and faith in Sam Darnold? Oh, and the Los
Kubiak, who we're pretty sure is a genius, and it's going to be hard to replace that.
And so, yeah, it just seemed like a regression to the mean thing.
But fantasy experts have got themselves in trouble with that many times.
It's like, oh, Christian McCaffrey regress to the mean.
Tyreek Hill regressed.
I mean, it's like Rob Grancowski regressive.
No, these guys are just hashtag built different.
But I'm looking at this offense.
And I'm still questioning, like, how sustainable is this?
I think you saw the tail end of last season.
teams played more too high coverage, maybe more cloud coverage on JSN.
And it did seem to work his last five games.
He kind of slowed down.
So like if you're a defensive coordinator, what do you do to stop this?
Isn't it easy?
Like you only need to stop one guy.
I know they're motioning him around the line of scrimmage.
I know he has equal alignments to the slot, to the X, to the Z.
And then what does it say about the Seahawks offense where you're saying,
you're saying you know the charger Mike McDaniel's offense falls apart without lad
you're saying Justin Herbert can't run the offense effectively and you question his
IQ well it's like Jew Locke is like well known to be like one of the dumbest
quarterbacks in the league care is that dude there's the Philip Lindsay video I
don't know if you guys have seen this but it's um Philip Lindsay was like yeah dude
drew lock just like can't can't check out of plays at the line of scrimment so like
one time the Mike linebacker was like, oh, they're going to, they're going to toss it to the running
back and Philip Lindsay looks at him. He's like, come on, Drew, please.
Drew just goes, sorry, bro. He just calls the exact play and Philip Lindsay gets hammered.
And so it's like, what are the Seahawks doing right that all these other offenses can't do?
And then like, if you're a DC, Brett, how do you stop JSN? Can you?
Yeah, so here's the thing. There's this fantasy analyst I follow his name.
names Ryan Heath. He wrote an article over on fantasy points.com talking about all of these
amazing efficiency hacks and how to be an elite play caller in the NFL. If you read that article,
you'll find the answer. And the Seahawks do a lot of those things really well. You nailed
a couple of them. It's the motion, the constant moving him around. He plays in the slot. He plays
the X. He plays Z. It's really unpredictable. And if they don't like the alignment they get with
him, they will move him and get a different matchup. So that's special. They also,
implement play action and early down passing and all these other efficiency hacks that you love to see and they run the football pretty well and when you do those things
You keep defenses guessing you keep them on your toes you're disguising what you're doing
You force them to defend the run good things happen and so
They just do a lot of those things really well I think we thought a lot of those things would leave with Kubiak right and they just haven't so far
And I think that's that's really good for jason. Well, why why don't more offenses do this then like why don't the Texans do this with Nico Collins?
or you know Nick Cayley Ponsie another Ponzi scheme coordinator right like I mean
seriously like how does this guy it's it's like a who you know league it's like how does
this guy keep getting jobs in the league we have no idea but yeah that I don't know that's a
great question why don't the Texans do that with Nico Collins they literally put him at X on
every single play yeah and they have no it's not like they have like the cowboys get away with
it with pickens at X because they have CD Lamb right it makes okay cool he can play X
every play why do what do the Texans do that they don't have anybody else especially right now with
jaden Higgins hurt so anyways let's move on uh we spent eight minutes on that i wanted this to be
five minutes or less all right uh wide receiver tight end week two leaders and is that what is tms
target market share scott yeah so i i i pulled this up it's um one jsn 42 percent to my guy parker washington
41% baby he finished one yard short of seven catches 99 yards and a touchdown number three
our guy our all three of us are our boy our son christian watson uh 37.9% target share 11
targets only four to receptions jordan loved didn't really play particularly well number four
Tray McBride, number five, Devontas Smith in a game without Dallas, Goddard, six, Amunrah, St. Brown,
and then seven, Jalen Waddle, quite the comeback. After you said it, Brett, on all our shows,
is a great get right spot. He was, you know, up against, who was it, Steve Spagnolo's cloud
coverage, brackets.
And so, yeah, we should have expected a bounce back.
For sure.
Among those guys, Christian Watson just looks fantastic.
I'll also throw it in there.
He wasn't listed because he only had six targets.
Matthew Golden looks really good too.
I know he had four catches for 58 yards.
Honorable mention, though.
He was an ass guy last year.
He was like every time I posted the ash chart, everyone's like, oh, this makes
perfect.
Wait, what is Matthew Golden doing there?
He caught like nothing.
So, hey, maybe ASP predicted this little Matthew Golden breakout.
Yeah, he looks strong to me.
He looks strong, like thicker, more muscular, not as easily pressed, good after the catch.
Some things I had concerns about.
He looks better at.
Yeah, and we said it at the top of the show.
Gene Reed now out a while.
So Sky Moore is now the third wide receiver.
We used to lament how this was a gross five-way committee with Dantavian Wix and Romeo Dobs and even Boeh-Melton.
on occasion and now it's just even more condensed.
And so it's not just these two, but it's also, Ryan had an incredible stat.
Last week we saw the tight end with like a 50% route share and now he's up to a career
high. What's the stat, Ryan?
Yeah. So the preliminary route numbers that Brett was nice enough to send me so that he
wouldn't stat mag us the entire time on this show. So yeah, thank you for, for
thinking of that this week.
I had crafted a 94% route share, which is insane.
For any tight end, that's insane.
For Kraft, it would be a career high.
My guess is that this was because Jaden Reed was out.
It was just what they kind of decided they had to do.
Craft didn't pop a ton in the box score,
but this is a tight end that we've called like mini George Kittle for the entirety of
the off season.
It's every single season by Yards.
per target over expectation, yards after the catch for a set, like all of these kind of like
niche efficiency receiving stats. It's George Kittle plus Tucker Kraft as number one and number
two. So if it's a bigger, higher route chair role for Tucker Kraft, even if he's not at 100%
for the entire first half of the season, I think that's like legit worth reacting to in
in fantasy football.
Like I don't know that that's going to be like everyone's major takeaway
for the Green Bay passing offense coming out of this week.
Rightfully, it should be,
hey, Christian Watson looks awesome.
He was a smash pick.
Their backfield,
they still can't seem to figure out.
Caleb Johnson was leading the team in carries,
if that gives anybody any sort of idea as to how desperate it's gotten for them
there in like this gross three-way committee.
So it does seem like it just,
looking at how the injuries have turned out that yeah,
Tucker Kraft could be like a big winner,
at least over the next month plus or until whenever Josh Jacobs comes back
and Lafleur can just use his safety blanket again to run the ball with him
at a minus 4% P-Roe every single game.
As until that happens,
like Tucker Kraft looks like legit a top six fantasy tight end.
If you told me that he's anywhere close to full health or effectiveness.
that's going to be his role. Yeah, my exodia tight end was Tucker Kraft on ESPN and then George
Kittle everywhere else. And I was kind of saying like, hey, you got to be patient the first
few weeks of the season. You should draft a Dallas Goddard or Isaiah likely just in case.
But no, Kittle had a monster game. He looks back. And then you had Tucker Kraft with a career
high in route here. This is a guy who's always like, like Don Quincade, like elite in fantasy points
per route run. It's just the the route share wasn't that high. And now I feel like it has to be
high because of the injury to Jaden Reed, the got rid of Romeo Dobbs and Dontevi and Wix. And it's also
more routes being run because this running game is just like dead. And so and that trickles
trickles up to Jordan Love too, who's always like fringe top six and fantasy points per dropback.
But the Packers always bottom five and dropbacks per game. So yeah, I think even though it was a
really rough week too and the Jordan love didn't look great. I think overall I think it's bullish.
Another note there once Jaden Reed left, which I think was like the second or third play of the
game. Yeah. The Packers were in 12 or 13 personnel for like 46% of their snaps. So they just
completely abandoned 11. I shouldn't say completely abandoned 11. But they is definitely a little
tendency breaker. They added, you know, usually they're like 30%, 12, 13 I think, 35%.
they're all the way up at 45, 46%.
So I thought you said I wasn't going to get stat mocked, right?
What the heck?
Yeah, it still happened, of course.
They had to go to 12 to keep Skymore off the field, which you know, fair enough.
Yeah.
Something Scott always says that's a great thing for Watson, for golden and for craft.
Yes.
Your backup tight end is unlikely to be a high target guy compared to skillful receivers.
So.
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All right, let's move on.
Let's just ask this question.
How legit are the Saints?
Two game scripts in a row, down by a lot, make a roaring comeback.
And today they actually got it done and got the win.
So yeah, what do we think?
So I, the Ravens defensive coordinator called Tyler Shuck poor man's Josh Allen.
Yeah.
Just like a great comp.
Like that's like super flattering.
But they, they took it as a negative and we're calling Shuck poor man all week.
I thought that was great, you know, bulletin board material.
But, you know, from a fantasy perspective, that's kind of like apt.
just I pulled it up over every quarterback's last 10 games.
Tyler Shuck is top three in fantasy points per game.
And like here's a really crazy stat is like,
I'm like, okay, it's a garbage time scam.
Or maybe these guys are just the garbage time gods
because like it seems the only score their fantasy points
in the fourth quarter.
But I pulled it up using Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0.
wild stat so over every team's last 10 games uh through the first three quarters the saints are bottom
six and everything they're bottom six in yards per play EPA per play EPA per dropback success rate
in the fourth quarter they're best in the league by EPA per dropback and so that's my question
to you Brett is are the saints legit or are they just feasting against what do you call it
squishy zone coverage, prevent, defense.
I know it was legit because they won the game this time,
but again, all their touchstands came in the fourth quarter.
So you tell me, from a fantasy perspective,
it almost doesn't matter just because it's play volume.
And like, but you tell me.
Yeah, I wouldn't say it's squishy prevent stuff.
That didn't happen today.
That didn't happen against the Lions.
I think what's happening, like Kellyn Moore is a super aggressive pace
coordinator like he's going to push the pace and sometimes it takes a little while to get in the
rhythm and two games in a row now they've ran like 50 plays in the fourth quarter or something
crazy so it's like and that just wears a defense down doesn't matter if you're playing prevent
or your base stuff it's like well we can't be on the field that long I think they had a nine played
nine play drive today that ended in a touchdown a 16 play drive today that ended in a touchdown all in the
fourth quarter so like I just think really it's what it is that's the whole reason you play with pace
throughout the game is eventually you wear that defense down.
And I think this is actionable.
Like I do think, I mean, that's why college teams do it, right?
Like college teams play with crazy pace and the idea is once we get to the second
half, that defense is going to break.
And I think Kellan Moore has the same mindset.
And it's worked two weeks in a row.
So you want to hear what my argument is?
I don't know that it's correct.
I want to hear your opinion on it, but it's basically implying there's a lot more
untapped potential for Shuck, who's already, like I said, top three over last 10
games. I think I think as fun and fast pace and pass heavy as as as Kellan Moore is,
I think he needs to lean even more into Shuck. I think that's why there's so much more
efficient in the fourth quarter. It's they're behind and it's like, all right,
fuck it. We got to go pass heavy. Let's abandon the running game. And because in the first
three quarters, it's not that. It's the running game not working at all, setting up third
and longs for Tyler Shuck. Because look at every.
metric over the last three years, Alvin Kamara and Travis A-chan are both bottom three running
backs by every efficiency metric. And it's like, yeah, let's just stop doing what's working and do
what works. And really what that is is just letting Tyler Shuck kind of ball out.
Yeah, to your point, the Saints literally can't run the football. They were under three yards
of carry last week, under three yards of carry this week. It's bad, bad. So that's when you take away
shuck scrambles, by the way.
Right. So Ryan, Ryan, the question for you is,
the 2026 Saints are this year's blank?
Are the this year's 2025 Arizona Cardinals with Jacoby Brissette?
Or are they potentially something above and beyond that?
I was going to take it even further back.
I might get the year wrong.
It's 2015 or 2016.
the Jacksonville Jaguars with Blake Bordels
when he was like a top eight fantasy quarterback
on doing the same exact thing
just scoring all their points in the fourth quarter
they're behind trailing every single game
Alan Robinson was like a top five wide receiver
that's Chris Olive right there
yeah that I think it was like the year before
they drafted Leonard Fournett I want to say so yeah
2015 2016 somewhere in there
that's what I'm reminded of
And I think it's even better for Shuck because for a while at the end of last season, he just was the goal lineback where they got to a point where they have no healthy running backs or no running backs that we trust.
I should pull the stat for the everything report.
But over the last like six to eight games of last season, I think Shuck was leading in carries inside the 10, leading the team.
He had the only two for the team today.
Travis A-chan has been
mocked by old Alvin Camara.
Kendrae Miller is a healthy scratch
who they used at the goal line last week
and this week they just used Shuck.
So yeah, I don't know.
I think Shuck just takes all the high value touches
from the running backs.
They're both completely useless for fantasy.
And I do think that
the, yeah, Kellamore is like bringing back
the glory days of Chip Kelly.
As Brett was saying,
it's like what college teams do.
Yeah, I think that's right.
I think that's just kind of what we see the rest of the season.
I just want to say I love the Blake Bortle shout out,
especially because you were probably like 10 years old when that happened.
But Johnny Proctor and I went all in on Blake Bortles every single week.
And the subs were like, always in the third quarter panicking.
This guy sucks.
Why did you tell me to play him?
And then you'd always come through in the fourth quarter.
And so, yeah, I think we have a little bit of that magic.
But from like, I think this office.
is way more upside than that Jaguar's offense even.
My comp was going to be either the 2025 Cowboys
or maybe the 2023 Cowboys.
I don't know if, I don't know if Kellan Moore was actually
on part of that staff.
But yeah, I just see a ton of upside.
I think Devon Bailey is right now as a top 12 fantasy wide receiver.
Chris Olavie's top three.
So I see
Bailey as a sort of poor man's
George Pickens.
Chris Olavi is a slightly
poor man, CD Lamb.
And yeah, and with Tyler
Shuck, you know, scoring rushing
touchdowns, there's
a lot of potential here.
I have a fun stat. I think.
You guys can tell me if I'm wrong.
But Chris Oliva had more
receiving yards today than he did air yards.
And that's got to be one of the only times
that's ever happened in his career.
Right.
Especially because of who he,
was coming out of college where he had like a no percentile career mistackles force
per catch so so what happened was it um like screens he has a screen or something
not just a lot of shorts that a lot of short stuff short intermediate nothing deep but 81 air yards
86 receiving yards that's like super uncanny for for chris oliva so oh i just sorry i just had a
brain blast because we were just talking about yards after catch is like a thing coming out of college
No one's thinking about him right now.
Oh my God, he would have been smashing.
I know.
If he were healthy right now, right?
I know.
Go put Jordan Tyson in your IR slot.
I think every sub probably has Jordan Tyson in their IR slot.
But if he's not, go make that happen right now.
Because that, yeah, oh my God.
That if God willing, if he comes back healthy at any point this year, that could be so fun.
Yeah, so Tyson comes back healthy, gives the whole offense and efficiency bump.
Where does Shuck actually end up in terms of?
the QBs. Is he a top seven guy?
Yeah. Rich man's bow knicks he feels like to me. Yeah, he could definitely be a mid-range
QB-1 for sure. Nice. All right, we have one more to get to and we're going to get out of
here. Buckie Irving. Is he a league winner? Scott, you had a note in here. Shout out Jacob Gibbs.
I'll just give you my take and then let you two go. No, not a league winner. He doesn't look
that great to me. He had one run today that was like, okay, that was cool. But it's still required
in his offensive line to dominate.
It took a lot of vision and patience.
But he's not, he just looks okay.
He looks like a good, not great running back in a,
in an environment that's good, not great.
Baker Mayfield looks completely lost.
Go ahead.
Yeah, I could, I could tag that too with, you know,
follow up.
All our former PFF colleagues,
not off to a good start.
Bobby Slowick, Zach Robinson.
Zach Robinson might be a judge.
gigantic fake sharp by Ryan's what's what's Robinson doing wrong I mean the
offense just isn't really working have you watched the game looks lost no oh okay
yeah Baker bro his brain is completely busted I'm not saying Robinson's doing a good job
but you cannot judge what is happening there until you get eyes on Baker Mayfield I
haven't watched it but like I mean he was so good with with Liam Cohen we know
Liam Cohen's great. I don't know
what's going on. He had a couple
absolute dimes today, but he also made some
just horrendous mistakes. Just crazy sacks taken.
The pick he threw was God awful.
Last week he had, what, four fumbles?
Maybe he's just the modern day
Eli Manning where he's just like super
volatile. Oh man. It's kind of a good comp.
That's kind of a good cop, Scott. Dang.
Yeah. But anyway, back to
to Bucky Irving. So just like
judge it, like, I went on Jacob
Gibbs show he was pounding the table for Bucky like yeah I don't know they just seems like they
really want a three way committee and I just avoid three way committee backfields but like
knowing what I know about Bucky how efficient he was his rookie season also coming out of college
and the usage he's gotten to date I think it's seems very bullish and like honestly this looks
like one of my biggest misses I was too low on him but what do you think Ryan I have a kind of
similar thought process there. Yeah. So I do a show with Jacob Gibbs every week now over on Beyond the Box
score. People can go watch that. It comes out every Thursday or Friday. We discuss league winners who,
like who is going to be a league winner based on last week and what we've seen so far on the season,
just kind of scoreboard watching on that. And he made like a really strong case after week one for
Bucky Irving to be included in that category because of the usage that we've seen and it continued
into week two where all of 2025 the issue with Bucky when we came into the year with him as like a
round two pick in fantasy everyone was so excited about him as an ascending running back talent after
his rookie season we just ran into the issue of he's getting squeezed in both directions he was
losing high value touches at the goal line to Sean Tucker. He was losing a ton of routes and
targets to Rashad White. But we've rolled into this season. Sean Tucker doesn't seem to really be a
part of the team's plans. He had to take a pay cut to even make the team. He was inactive week one,
didn't, I believe, did not receive a touch in week two. Bucky both weeks has just dominated all of
the usage on the ground, gotten almost all the usage inside the 10.
inside the 20 has been equal or above gain well in terms of actual targets earned.
This is pretty damn close to like as close as you get to a three down bell cow profile in
today's NFL. And all we kind of need is for Baker Mayfield to stop being a bonehead and stop
turning the ball over and making dumb decisions. So I think if you want to lean into the idea that
Baker Mayfield is a volatile quarterback and these first two weeks we've gotten, I would say,
the lower end of what he's capable of or what an offense can be with him in terms of
actually sustaining drives, not having the worst turnover margin in the NFL, just sucking even more
plays out of the offense and out of everyone's box scores.
Like if that switch flips, then Bucky can be a top 12 running back in fantasy football,
just from like the usage workload shares that he's getting out of this backfield.
So yeah, it wasn't there in the box score for him this week, but I do think it's a good one to call people's attention to.
Yeah, you're not, you're not wrong.
I was the biggest Kenneth Gainwell's fan.
I have been for the past few years, but I need someone to explain this contract to me like I'm five.
Two years, $14 million and $10 million guaranteed for a running back you're not even going to use.
It just doesn't make any sense.
Look, it looks better than the Travis A-chan contract right now, to be fair.
That's true.
But still, like, why are you paying?
Better than the DK Metcalf contract.
Oh, my.
Oh, man.
Sorry, we're wrapping up this podcast while SNF is also wrapping up.
And the Chiefs just won the football game in very dramatic fashion.
So if you're listening to this, just know we're recording this before SNF was over technically.
That's why we didn't talk about it.
But Patrick Moem just had himself a day dropping dimes all over the field the week after I called them completely wash.
So that's apropos.
Hey, speaking of bad contracts, you know, the bears are only paying Kaleef Raymond,
$2 million guaranteed per year, really should be getting $20 million guaranteed because he's
so much better than Luther Burden.
See, this is the thing you do where you put words in my mouth.
I love this.
This is my favorite part of the show.
My favorite part of the show is when I come on, like, the preeminent Caleb Williams
Hater podcast and both hosts just run away.
from that take the moment Caleb Williams gets hurt and we have to watch Tyson
Bayesian that was what I really enjoyed today and I'm sure all the viewers did too
damn you know some of that some of that is the empathy that I have for the situation
okay like Bears fans and I don't get along there's the one time Bears fans would like you
they want coach there's there's no love awesome he's the best backup in football yeah but I'm also
I don't want to anyone to to
get the wrong idea with my take i don't want people to think i'm like happy that
kaleb williams has heard or anything because that's not true i was very bummed when i saw it
um i'm glad i'm glad to hear it's going to be short term it sounds like because i i want that bet to
stand and i want to i want that bet to be competitive not some you know one on a technicality thing
so anyways sorry sorry ryan sorry i didn't give you what you wanted but uh i kind of did
i kind of i kind of said yeah lutherberg i got exactly what i wanted i i always get exactly
what I want when I come on this show. So I appreciate it, guys. It's it's been a blast today.
Well, we appreciate you. Thank you for coming on. You know, for the subs and the people who listen to the show a lot,
they already know who you are. But for those that don't, tell them where they can find you.
Yeah, you can find me on Twitter at Ryan J. underscore Heath. Every Sunday night, I put out a big
usage thread that we've been talking about and talking through throughout the show. So that's one easy,
piece of content that you can read from me. Also, we'll have the Everything report co-written with
Graham Barfield up for all Fantasy Points subscribers on Tuesday afternoons going even further in
depth on every single fantasy relevant player in the written format. So yeah, look out for those things.
All right. Thanks again. Scott and I will be back tomorrow with our Waver Wire edition.
That's going to do it for today. Thank you so much for listening. We are out.
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