Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Landscape: Quarterbacks | Hansen's Hints Podcast

Episode Date: March 28, 2024

John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru) analyzes the QB landscape early in the 2024 off-season with regards to drafting for best ball and dynasty. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS IN 2024 AT OUR EARLY-BIRD RATE, INCLUDING OUR NEW ALL-IN PACKAGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hey, what's up, John Hansen here? Another edition of Hansen's Hints here at FantasyPoint.com. Been a little bit of intermittent offseason thus far recording this. puppy Tuesday night, March 26th. This is the time of the year when free agency slows down.

We see all the initial moves. And then I get right back into the projection business, start building them from scratch, which is what I've done for over 20 years. And I'm up to old habits die hard. I'm up to my old tricks here. And I'm actually done the first pre-draft go round. of building projections at quarterback for 2024. So I thought it would be a good time to record a video slash podcast and show the lay of the land as I see it.

I do have some early ADP that I have been looking at, digesting, comparing my positional rankings with that early ADP. And I will say this right at the top. the markets are a little differing from where I'm at on, you know, the top 12, let's say. The last two years, 2023 and 2022, I found that the markets were lockstep with what I had. I'm like, oh, this is boring. My top 12 quarterbacks are, you know, like the top 13 dudes being drafted, ADP-wise. A little different this year. So we'll get into it.

And maybe that is slightly a function of me, because, you know, I do these from scratch. I tend to be conservative, you know, and I do think this year, in 2023, I spent more time studying the quarterbacks than ever in terms, thanks to fantasy points data, in terms of their abilities to play well and produce well, move the ball against the various coverage shells. So maybe that's a little bit of it. it, but FYI, for what it's worth, I do have, I feel, the best handle on the quarterbacks that I've

ever had, understanding the constantly evolving NFL, the two deep safeties, all that stuff, factoring it all in, and coming up with, these are still baseline projections. I mean, this is not rocket science, earth-shattering stuff, pretty basic. how many times a game is a quarterback going to throw? You know, what's his completion percentage? What was last year compared to the career? And then how do you relate that to this year based on the situation this year? So there's a lot that goes into it.

And often I'm better off crunching everything in my own brain because I've been doing this for a long-ass time. I call it the algorithm. And I do have an ability to kind of consider. myriad pieces of information like 25 different things at once. But it does still all come back to some basic stuff here. I got some notes here that I write. You know, I'm looking at, you know, should I feel his completion rate will improve? Okay.

And if so, how much? Same with the YPA. What's the touchdown percentage for the career and for last year? Trevor Lawrence is a good example, actually, because, you know, his touchdown percentage drop when I presumed it would increase. Well, that's because Travis E.T.N. somehow Bogard did a bunch of touchdowns. He also had a lot of drops to Trevor Lawrence. So, you know, you look at that and, okay, whatever touchdown percentage was last year,

we're going to increase that. So everything is in line with the career body of work. It's not riveting stuff. I think a good way to explain it is who's a good at Kirk Cousins. Oh, well, until he got hurt. When you are durable and you win from the pocket and you have a stable environment where we know exactly what you're dealing, you're dealing with and not too much is disrupted, you are very, very easy to project, basically. trying to think of a really good example. Actually, no one was easy to project last year.

It was a terrible year for quarterback projections. I think Matt Ryan is a really good example. One year I had him as my breakout quarterback, and he won the MVP, like out of nowhere, and I kind of got his projection exactly right. There's a couple of years where you look back, oh, wow, look at this. Some guys are just very, very, very projectable. But again, not trying to be overly sophisticated with this first go round, pretty basic stuff in terms of the stats.

And I feel like, you know, in my own head, doing this full time for as long as I have, still doing it full time and still talking to people and still, you know, getting a lay to land. There's a lot that goes into my projections and, you know, whether or not, again, a guy's YPA. will increase or decrease. Will his touchdown percentage this year? Increase or decrease. A lot of factors, a lot of elements in play. Just one man's opinion here, but I am coming off a bad year. So you know what?

I'm due for a good year of analysis. It was a bad year for everyone last year at the quarterback position. The year before it was really good, actually. I predicted the demise of Tom Brady and Matt Stafford while pumping up Joe Burrow and Jalen Hertz. There were a couple of other good things, really good things. Last year, I think the best thing that I did was endorse Jordan Love. And it wasn't even like a full, wholehearted endorsement because, I mean, he was a little scary. It was a little polarizing. You had to really think twice about it. That's why I always bring up that damn video I did on him last summer, which you can see

on our feed, because it was a tough call. It was like, this could be really good. But why, you know, hasn't he done anything and why presumably are the coaches not feeling warm and fuzzy about them at the least after two years on the roster, which was the case. But, you know, fascinating case study. That worked out. So, you know, we're due to bounce back this year. And I think the markets are set up pretty well. So let me just get into some of these discrepancies and then I'll discuss as we move along.

I think that's the best way to go. Josh Allen right now is your early underdog ADP leader in the clubhouse, and I have met one. I have Hertz at two, just like the markets. Now, here's where we differ already. Lamar Jackson comes in at three. Now, I don't want to suffer paralysis by overanalysis with Derek Henry there. Certainly, that's going to make Lamar and the Ravens more dangerous in the red zone. I'm not going to just, you know, I'm not assuming that Derek Henry is going to steal all the goal line work from Lamar,

but Lamar has had some touchdown droughts in the past and some availability issues in the past. And I get it to an extent. I mean, I've always been a Lamar supporter. I just feel the fantasy community, they tend to go a little overboard with Lamar. And there are times when they're like, see, told you. But there are plenty of times when the opposite side is saying see, told you. Like when he ended the season on the sideline in 2022, for example, you have to bake that in. So I only have Lamar.

Granted, we're splitting hairs because it's only one quarterback spot difference. I think Mahomes is a much safer QB3, and that's exactly where he is on my board. Now, here we go with the first controversial projection. And again, I did the video on Jordan Love last year. Go watch it. I think I mapped it out pretty good. The pros and the cons. There were concerns.

I covered them. but the conclusion at the end of the video was that he was going to overcome the issues because of all the other positives involved and that's exactly what happened. So Jordan Love checks in at QB5 for me right now, which is quite the jump from last year when he was QB21. And right now the markets have him at QB9. So I think it's a pretty damn good buying opportunity. I haven't done a best ball draft yet.

I think I'm going to do one. Actually, I'm going to do one. two actually i'm going to do more than that i'm going to do about five of them before the draft just to draft jordan love as the qb whatever eight i'm trying to find my here it is my my notes on him i mean this is not i'm not going crazy here uh i'm increasing his completion rate to 65 from 64 point two i'm going to bump up his YPA from 7.2 with not much from Christian Watson, by the way, who is Mr. Field Stretcher, 15 yards a catch at under 30

receptions, fewer than 30. I'm bumping up Lloves YPA from 7-2 to 7-5. I mean, not ridiculous at all. I'm bumping up the TD rate a little bit. He did post a very strong 5.5% rate, but hey, Brock Purdy is like 7 plus 8% the last two years. So I bumped it up to 5.7. all just incremental bump-ups as we assume and presume that he will improve with a year under his belt. And especially with a rookie receiving corps, we're not all rookies.

Damn near it, though. Jane Reed, Luke Musgrave, Don Tavian Wicks, all rookies, Luke Tucker Kraft. I mean, geez, unbelievable. So, I mean, I've got him with 33 touchdown passes, two and a half on the ground. I love the quarterback. who wins in the pocket but has a little cheat code on the side, if you will, in his back pocket. That's my type of quarterback, more predictable, more available like Jordan Love was. So, yeah, that's the first big discrepancy.

Here's a man without a country, I feel, this year, Dak Prescott. I mean, the guy, all he did was lead the NFL in a number of metrics, right? touchdown passes 36 and pass completions yet and he ran a little bit we all thought no he wasn't going to be running as much in his old age at 30 years old but he bumped it up a little bit 242 slash 2 he's right there at my threshold

50 carries 200 plus yards and two plus touchdowns that's kind of the bare minimum to fit my ideal mold and that's exactly what DAC was last year. Granted, he's a year older, but they don't have a running back on the roster right now. They're going to draft one. Do not fear.

I think it's going to be Trey Benson. It could be Brooks. It could be somebody's name. I'm forgetting the top running back on the board here whose name I'm going to pull up right now. Oh, the Blake Quorum. So back to the quarterbacks and all that. So I feel good about that projection. It's not a stretch by any.

stretch would love back to DAC you know again I am at six I think it's fair yet the markets well he's at eight so I that's a decent value I'm not gonna I don't feel like I'm targeting him but that's not bad that is not bad for a guy again who led the NFL in past completions and passing touchdowns and again they lost Michael Gallup but I think between Jake Ferguson lamb and cooks we'll hope cooks isn't cooked at 31. A lot of miles off those tires, but he looked good last year. Ferguson, that emergence is critical. And look, Jalen Tolbert is a guy I did kind of like watching him at the Senior Bowl a couple of years ago out of South Alabama. The light bulb seemingly went on for him. So I think they feel okay about him. And they do a pretty good job of developing receivers.

Moving on, C.J. Stroud checks in at seven. Markets are a little higher at six. You know, tougher call. I mean, he was outstanding. I don't know if we're going to absolutely replicate that. I mean, it's only done it one year. There's now some tape on him. I think it's a valid concern. So I'm probably going to be a little below the market on Stroud himself. But, you know, very impressive season, obviously.

Led the NFL with a 1% interception rate. That might be due for some regression. in there perhaps but you know we're presuming that they're going to continue to get better on offense too probably had a receiver uh joe mixon is an upgrade in the backfield i think from a devon singletary next up was anthony richardson and look i was all about him and called him a superstar this time last year i was saying superstar vibe using the s word and all that i did think it was a bit much to start in week one i didn't think that had to be done i get it to an extent, but I also think, who knows? Maybe if he sat a month, he would have been a little calmer

and wouldn't have ran as much and wouldn't have gotten hurt. Who knows? We'll never know, but I do think right now at QB5, he is kind of priced at his mark at his ceiling and that there's some downside there. I mean, let's compare that to love. You know, you want Richardson at 60 or love at 85. For me, it's love all day long. I feel so much better about Love's ability to stay available, which is the number one ability. I think Love has 40 touchdown potential at this juncture, and that could really usurp any cheat code. I mean, if you're throwing 38, 37, and running three in,

I mean, you're going to crush. So that's a potential outcome here for Jordan Love. You know, maybe Richardson runs, you know, a bunch of times. I don't think, by the way, he's going to run as much. He ran it like, it was 10 times a game in his two games that he finished without Jonathan Taylor. We're going to have Jonathan Taylor there. He's not going to run as much.

So dare I say, it might be a little overvalue. Next up here, Joe Burrow, QB8 off the board. I've got him at QB8. So I'm right there with those markets. Brock Purdy was somewhat interesting. You know, I did talk about him and write about him last summer and said, you know, if this touchdown percentage, which I think was 7.6, if this is for real, which I think it was, and I said that, dude's thrown 30 and he did it.

So I've got him at 32 again. QB10. Okay. I'm right at the market. It's there at QB10. Here's a guy that's overvalued. First look at the quarterbacks here, Hanson's Hintz podcast, FantasyPoints.com. And maybe we need some data correction here.

But Justin Herbert, QB12. Yeah, he's nowhere near my top 12. Right now, sadly, at QB 15 with 20 touchdown passes. They're going to be about running the rock. We'll see if they get Blake Corum. We'll see what happens here. Do they trade out, trade down? Hell, do they trade for J.J. McCarr?

I guess there's a lot of possible outcomes here, but I don't know where we are with Justin Herbert, but we're not in a good place with Greg Roman taking over. Maybe Herbert throws it down the field a little bit more. Maybe he runs a little bit more himself, but not a warm and fuzzy feeling there. Another value here as we continue, and he is probably number two value to me other than love, and that is Trevor Lawrence, was talking with our friend Paul Kelly on the radio this morning, actually and he said if you just added four touchdowns to Lawrence and by the way he had multiple drops early in the year of of Tuddies and then he got hurt and it was a nightmare but he probably

would have been right where everyone had him like QB8 QB9 last year so for me he checks in at QB 12 which is a little above the markets at QB 15 and as I mentioned I do believe my man Trevor Lawrence is due for a little positive regression after a tough year last year. Now, they do need, in my opinion, to get another wide receiver after losing out on Calvin Ridley. Gabe Davis, okay, that's nice, but we're not relying on Gabe Davis. Gabe, Zay Jones, Kirk, Ingram, pretty good. One more guy, like a speed guy, like my guy, Troy Franklin from Oregon, great kid.

that would be a beautiful fit there for Trevor Lawrence and Doug Peterson. And maybe Doug's on the hot seat a little bit. Big year, I think they bounce back. We're buying the dip a little bit with Trevor Lawrence. Some other comparisons to the early ADP. I'm a little higher on Jared Gough, who I have at QB13, Mr. Accumulator. Mr. I'll play every game and I won't run much, although he ran a couple in. but I will be a professional quarterback and I will compile.

And at the end of the year, you'll look, oh, look, your top 10 as he was last year. Kirk Cousins, lining up with my ranking are the markets at QB17. I was actually higher on Gino Smith for what it's worth. But we'll see when the rookies get fully projected and added into the mix. I have them currently at QB 16. The markets are only 26. So it could be a little bit of a discount there with Gino Smith. I know they're not totally committed to them, but come on now.

Sam Howell, I don't think Sam Howell was going to be much of a threat to Gino Smith, at least initially. Interestingly enough, you know, this time last year, I hate to say it, but I was interested in Deshawn Watson. A little bit of the sexiness of the unknown and certainly a discount on the price. Well, well, it's no longer unknown. And it's certainly not sexy after 2023 was pretty repulsive, actually. I'm down to QB 22 and so are the markets Baker Mayfield.

I'm locked step with the markets on that one. QB 18. I've got him at 18. Kind of bouncing around a little bit. Aaron Rogers. Same deal. QB 24. I've got him at 24.

Actually, I'm a little lower. He's at 21. So Tua Tunga Veloa was another one that was interesting. And I've got him at 14. He's 13. so I guess not that interesting. Kyler Murray, I am bouncing around for sure, is my initial QB11,

and that is pretty darn close to the market. So, you know, I will say, and we'll need to fill in the rookies for sure. I think we're going to have at least three rookies in our top 30 at quarterback this year with Caleb Williams, probably Jaden Daniels and Drake May, and probably J.J. McCarthy, too. So we'll have to bump everyone down a little bit here,

but, you know, still very good depth, but it is funny to me, you know, you look at it on paper and like just a list, like, oh, my God, look at this depth. And then you actually do the projections and you say, okay, it's not that amazing, but it's still good. I mean, it is still very, very good. I think we have 25 pretty darn good options at the quarterback position. And by the way, I did not project a couple of situations. I'll cover that as well. I didn't do the Giants just in case they, well, draft a quarterback at six.

I didn't do the Patriots, of course, waiting to see what they do. I did not do as another team or two. The Raiders didn't go there. Oh, and I didn't do the Steeler guys yet, although I probably should, but here's a problem. You know,

I'm going to have to probably bake in some starts for Justin Fields. like four because you know russell wilson isn't very good anymore but then again maybe maybe rus holds down the job and is that veteran leader that they are going to put in the quote unquote poll position so that's a pain in the butt uh i don't even know if we need to deal with that we also have potentially if they get drafted in the right situation bo necks and michael panic so yeah we do have very good depth but maybe not incredible and the guys who stand out to me early on first look number one Jordan Love number two Trevor Lawrence and I'd probably go with Joe Burrow as number three I am a Joe Burrow apologist your early look at some potential overvalues would be very slight one with Lamar very slight with CJ Stroud and probably Anthony Richardson that's a pretty quick look at the first look at the quarterbacks here about 25 minutes Don't have too much else to say.

Looking good, setting up well. We'll see where the rest of the ADP falls, but I'm inclined to hold off this year. Now, that was a good thought last year. It didn't really work out. You really actually kind of wanted to pay up for Josh Allen or Jalen Hertz, but I'm not going to let last year dictate what I think is a good decision. And that is to hold off a little bit, get as many star wideouts and running backs as you can. And then target Jordan Luff with Trevor Lawrence being a pretty decent consolation prize if you miss out on love.

You will not miss out on crap if you continue to listen to this podcast feed and continue to like and subscribe all the videos here at fantasy points.com. I'll wrap it up. Next week, I'll be back for another edition of the Hansa Tense podcast here on the feed with an initial look at the running back. It won't be as complete of a picture, but I will do some serious projecting. of the top, I'd say 20 of the top 30 backs will be projected at the very least. So we'll have a good look at the landscape. Until then, I'm John Hanson, and this has been Hanson's Hints at FantasyPoint.com. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast.

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