Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Landscape: Running Backs| Hansen's Hints Podcast

Episode Date: April 9, 2024

John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru) analyzes the RB landscape early in the 2024 off-season with regards to drafting for best ball and dynasty. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS IN 2024 AT OUR EARLY-BIRD RATE, INCLUDING OUR NEW ALL-IN PACKAGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. What is up? I'm John Hansen. Welcome to another edition of Hansen's Hints here at FantasyPoint.com. Recording this puppy on Monday, April 8th, I've been. been working on projections here the last couple of weeks once I get free agency information. The first wave, second wave, third wave of free agency is already in the rear view. Usually the weeks leading up to the draft, I try to go in and do projections, build them from

scratch. I'll get into that in a moment. For the teams that I think, or the situations at least, the positions that won't likely be affected dramatically by the NFL draft, which is certainly a little bit. bit of a hit or miss proposition, but I've been doing this for a while, and I do build the projections from scratch. So once the NFL draft takes place, it would take me a couple of weeks probably to do them all. So I get a good head start, go in there and tweak after the draft when things happen that or maybe a little unanticipated. So I don't project everyone for every

team, I do go in, like I said, and do the players that I feel like I won't have to change dramatically after the NFL draft. So before we get into some of the early observations that I have after doing the first run of projections, let's get into a little bit of the process in terms of what I'm looking at and what I'm doing. These are, I'd say, pretty baseline in terms of the data I'm using, although, you know, pretty advanced, the first thing I do, and I usually do these by team, certainly alphabetically, you go in there, and certainly usually start with the A's, but first thing I do for running backs is what we're doing here in this podcast slash video is I go over to the Fantasy Points data suite, and I look at the team

data, for example, Miami. Actually, they're a great example because they crushed it. I talk a lot in Miami and see where they ranked in all the key numbers here. Like, well, attempts. Actually, they were a little low there in terms of attempts, only 15th in the NFL. But they were sixth in rushing yards, for example. They were first in yards per carry. So we're getting an idea about the Miami Dolphin running game last year, although they're probably due for some regression.

First, in touchdown rate, they were third. an explosive run rate. They were first in explosive yards. So they did get a lot of their yards from explosive plays. They actually were seventh in rushing attempts inside the five. Everything. Touchdown rate. They were first in the NFL.

Stuff percentage. They were, you know, top third. Miss tackles force per attempt. They were second. So this gives me a pretty good understanding of, how great or not great a running game was. Yards after contact per attempt, Miami last year, number one. Yards before contact, number one.

So the Miami Dolphins absolutely crushed it. So that gives me certainly a feel. And then I go in and I look at the individual players in terms of all these data points. And certainly, you know, when I do that, now I go in and do some very basic work in terms of, okay, we're talking Miami. How many rushing attempts do I expect the dolphins to have? How many did it have last year? How many did it have on a per game basis and all that?

And do I think that number will be higher or lower? And then I come up with a best guess estimate, you know, based on reality, of course, in the recent past. And then I go through and certainly look at carry percentage in the backfield, target percentage and things like that. Devon A. Chan got X number of carries per game. Do I expect that number to go up or down? Of course, I need to project the number of games.

So we're looking at all that. Knowing all the other intricate data points, yards per initial contact, yards after contact, all that good stuff. Yards before contact will be a little indicative of the offensive line, of course, yards after contact is a little bit more indicative of the player's ability to break tackles and good stuff like that. But I get a handle on all of it.

And then it's simply, you know, looking at information like, you know, carry total here. I'll give you Devon A. Chan here. So Devon A. Chan last year, obviously we got to bake in some injury problems there. 103 carries in 11 games. This year, I am projecting 150 carries. got to project some time missed after last year in 14 games. So, you know, it is a little bit of a guess.

But that's what I came up with. So it's a little bit more of a workload, but not a ton here. By the way, Devon A. Chan in my notes here, I take notes for a lot of these. Boy, really good stuff, but maybe also hard to duplicate and replicate here. There it is over here. I added the here we go. Not to go off on a tangent here at the top of the podcast. We haven't even gotten in everything.

But last year, A-chan, let's see here. Number one in yards per carry, sixth in yards per game. He had the eighth most carries inside the five, which surprised me just a little bit. Moster did have a higher percentage and things like that. but I'm going in here and looking at guys like even Rahim Moster. You know, like it, when you go in and look under the hood, you do learn some things. I'll give you another example here. Moster got 58% of his career touchdowns all last year.

So that, what was that, 18? You know, my man is due for some regression. But, you know, I go in there with an understanding of obviously all the teams and, of course, the improvements that they've made. or the losses that they've had on their O line and at the other all the positions of course and you know come up with a you know a best guesstimate and what happens typically is as we get deeper and deeper into the off season the draft occurs we you know really home in on data we get more information more importantly coming out of the OTAs and the the July or not July the June

mini camps the last ones you do get a little bit more information so you you tweak there. And then, of course, you wait until training camp comes. And then we're in full tweakage mode because we do get information about player roles and new systems and schemes like that. And we do need to adjust right now. We are basically formulating best guesses as a baseline. So let's also, before we get into this year, take a quick look back at last year, because the running back position I was thinking about it in terms of like how accurate is it for me. I'd say it's probably the least accurate, unfortunately, because of, well, the obvious wear and tear that these guys take.

And more than ever, we're getting into backfield committees where it's pretty difficult to predict, like, who's going to be on the field, who's going to get the touches and the snaps. I kind of thought about it. I ranked tight end one as my most accurate predicting and projecting in my 30-year career, by the way. This is year 30 for yours truly.

Can't believe that. I started when I was four. No. Wide receiver quarterback, it's close. I mean, pretty good for both. I'm going to give them a tie for second and then, unfortunately, running back comes in last when you're talking about the top skill positions. But it was, I thought it was a pretty good year of just individual analysis and picks and things like that. Certainly I missed a ton of things. But I'll give you some of the review guys, just so you know, I was very into Breeze Hall. He crushed. He was. was the RB two. Rashad White was my number one target. He was like RB, what, 24, 25? I just bit my tongue back there. Hopefully nobody noticed that.

And he crushed. He was RB5. Let's see. I was, I liked Jemir Gibbs, but I like David Montgomery better. But hey, both guys did well.

I actually went back and I looked at Jemir Gibbs very, very close to what he actually got. But I do have another example of that. Oh, here it is. I had Jemir Gibbs with 233 fantasy points. He got 243. So, I mean, that's pretty close.

I did like Dave Montgomery. I was very, actually, Brian Robinson. If you read my draft plan article, I drafted him over and over and over again. Why? Because he was so cheap. And he did come through. I mean, technically, RB20 in total points,

probably less than that in points per game. 21 in points per game. Montgomery who's 15 in points per game. We could probably look there to better reflect how well these players did. Breece Hall was RB 6, Rashad was RB 10, okay, some of my favorites. Montgomery was RB 15. I did also like James Cook. He came through, I'd say, RB 18.

Anybody else of note here? And I'll get into some of the, I did like Najee. See, Najee is a tough one because my rankings always come from, projections, which more often than not is good and healthy, because otherwise we're just randomly, you know, ranking players without really thinking it through when you actually have to go in and, you know, project how many carries will a backfield get and what percentage of carries will this dude in the backfield get and all that? I mean, it is more, I think, legitimate, but sometimes you just, no matter what you do, you're going to hose people a little bit. I think

Naji is a pretty good example of that. I can actually probably pull it up in terms of what he got versus what I had him with. But it was probably relatively close, but it wasn't like Naji was a good pick or anything like that. Let's be honest here. Although, again, points per game, RB23 wasn't that bad. Of course, if you looked probably from like week five on, I'm sure it was a lot better. The other better example of the difficulties with ranking players in general, and doing it with projections was Kenneth Walker.

Now, I have taken an L on Walker, basically, you know, in terms of, you know, my ranking of him compared to the markets. I think it's fair to take an L, but it's actually kind of unfair when you look at, I kind of got the projection exactly right. Not exactly, but I had him with 210 carries. He had 219. I had 945 yards rushing.

He had 905. I had 5.5 touchdowns is where I screwed up. did end up getting eight. I had him with 28 catches, he had 29. I had him with 210 yards receiving at 259. And I had him with one receiving touchdown, and he had one. I mean, it kind of sounds like I got it exactly right, but I didn't because his ADP was RB15.

We only had him at RB 27. It was a difficult ranking because you had to bake in a time miss, which he did miss two games. And I think that's what I predicted. And of course, you had to bake in Zach Sharbiday, who, certainly wasn't a factor for much of the year, but then you look at the season that was, and you see that he had 108 carries and 33 grabs.

Well, he was, in fact, a factor, especially in the passing game. So I was below the markets. Now, I had him in RB 27, and he was 22 in points per game. So that's not that far off. And actually, I had him with 181 fantasy points. and he got $1.99. So there would be a pretty good example of did a good job with the projection, basically, pretty close.

I mean, touchdowns can be a little fluky. I probably shouldn't have given him a little bit more love. But see, with that, what I was baking into the equation was Zach Sharbide being a little bit more of a decisive downhill runner. I feel like they drafted Zach Sharbiday because while Walker gets hurt and also he's a bouncer. so may not be the greatest short yardage guy. So I pulled back a little bit.

So, yeah, there's a look at one guy that, you know, I feel like that's a good job, but not really. So this is a little difficult, no doubt about it. And this also is difficult to look at for a couple of reasons. Number one, it is early, obviously, but we're looking for, you know, content. We're looking to kill time, basically, before the NFL draft. And certainly, I think it's productive. because I am running through, you know, hardcore look at these projections.

But also, I think I lost my other point. It certainly is a good, oh, the other point was the early ADP that I have, that's the best that we have is from our friends at Underdog Fantasy. You should play there and FFPC, by the way. Those are the two best, basically, and our partners. And I don't really deal with half point PBR. But for this exercise, what I did was I actually just stripped out the PPR element to see where my projections lined up with the ADP to offer up some commentary, early values. You can do some good things drafting before the NFL draft in terms of some values as we try to do this time of the year.

So without any further ado, I will in fact now get into some of the early and interesting discrepancies from. my first run rankings based on the projections and early ADP from Underdog Fantasy. I will say again, I am avoiding a couple of backfields, several, because it's just an exercise and futility. So that does kind of mess up with some rankings that could be like way off, like this guy's RB27, ADP-wise, and I've got them at 39. Those gaps will be closed likely. but I'll give you quickly a few teams that I just did not feel comfortable doing because I don't want to waste time.

There are some examples where I think there's some pretty big questions about the backfield, but I think the top guy is good like James Cook and Buffalo. We'll see what they do in the draft. But a good example would be Carolina. I have no idea what they're going to do. They don't have a ton of picks. We could be good to go with Chuba Hubbard again battling Miles Sanders, essentially for touches or maybe they surprised and take a back of note.

So I didn't bother going in doing that. I actually didn't do the Bengals yet. Zach Moss is a guy who's kind of hanging in the balance right now. I'm not optimistic, by the way, about Moss in this new system here. I think last year he benefited from that blocking up front in that offense. And I think it's going to be a little tougher sledding for him as we've seen with Joe Mixon over the year. So we'll see what they do in the draft.

I didn't bother with Cleveland, even though I probably could have. I just don't know about, you know, certainly Nick Chubb right now. They did add Deonté Foreman, so I would think they're probably good and not going to do anything in the draft. So I'll probably end up doing that, but I don't have it in hand right now. I did not do the Cowboys. Sorry, Rico Dottle fans. I didn't feel the need to go in there just yet, especially when it's probably going to be Trey Benson and Zeke Elliott or Zeke Elliott and Blake Corum or something like that.

a rookie plus Zeke Elliott. I also did not do, well, a couple of free agents. I'm certainly not doing. I certainly didn't do any of the rookies. Let's see. What else did I pass on? The Chargers was kind of a tough call there. I think we should feel pretty good about Gus Edwards having a pretty good role.

But I'm like, hey, you know, I don't want to waste time. You know, if they draft Blake Corum, let's say, in the second, third round, then the Gus projection needs to be. loan up. So I didn't bother with it. And then that might be it in terms of notable teams that I didn't bother going into doing it. Yeah, I think that's about it. So we should get a pretty decent look here. I think the top 30 or so, or pretty fairly static right now. I don't know how many big time changes will get after the draft. Maybe a Trey Benson creeps into that top 30. So let's look at some of the discrepancies.

And again, I do work in a PPR environment, but for these purposes, I basically stripped out the PPR element, kept the receiving yards, of course. So it's just looking at rushing yards, rushing. Actually, you know what? It's kind of all or nothing. Do I strip it all the way or do I go with a full PPR? That's hard to say. I actually don't know how much of a difference there is, honestly, between PPR and half point

PPR. But we'll go through and just let's assume it's three quarter point PPR to split the difference here. But just some observations initially here looking at the projections. Christian McCaffrey number one.

I've got him at one to then we go Bijon Robinson. Bejohn right there with the other elite. But I do have him down at four with 224 fantasy points. I feel pretty good about Bijan, but, you know, we do have a new scheme, new coach, all that,

some changes forthcoming. And, you know, he was good. He was good last year, but we did have that one-miss game, which was a little weird. Moving on, the next guy is Breece Hall, who I have at three. I have Mattu, so we're close there. Then we have Jamir Gibbs comes in at RB4. I have that at seven, close enough. Kyrin Williams is five.

I have him at six. That surprised me a little bit. Jonathan Taylor. Here's probably the first little discrepancy. I mean, it's somewhat significant. RB6. I've got my man at three here. So and if we went PPR, by the way, he was also three.

So I'm definitely a little bit more bullish on Jonathan Taylor. Good O-line, good scheme. Everything's good. if Anthony Richardson is in one piece and on the field, and also if they add one more weapon here. I mean, Brock Bowers would be amazing, but I feel very good about a Jonathan Taylor bounced back. Sequin Barclay was next year at RB7.

I've got him at five. That's, you know, I'm not sure. I think it was a little lower in a full PPR because he's not getting 80 catches in Philadelphia with Jalen Hertz. Devon A. Chan was definitely the first real discrepancy. And this could be a problem because this is projecting. And, you know, I looked at what he was in terms of his touchdown percentage. And my man scored on 9.2 of his touches last year did Devon A. Chan. If Christian McCaffrey rolled with that rate, for example, he, dude would have scored 31 touchdowns. He scored 21. Now, you know, again, that's the point. of that's not sustainable, basically.

When you have a higher total of touches, you're not sustaining that 9.2. And then on the other hand, too, A Chan's not going to get all that much more in terms of the workload, at least in my opinion. So I have to say he's overvalued. Now, if he takes a high percentage of his touches to the crib, like last year and bust off the big plays,

then we'll be wrong. But, I mean, I'm giving the man 795 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 150 carries. along with, I'm giving them 11 touchdowns total and, you know, 1,200 plus yards. But again, how many touches are we looking at here? I mean, we're probably, we're not looking at over 200. We just can't. We just cannot do it, I believe, if you're Devon A Chan.

You've got to minimize that workload just a little bit. Of course, I was saying that and saying, well, I didn't think he would get this number of carries as he was on pace for early in the year. He had an 18 carry game, for example, in week. Number three, of course. then he had it eight and 11 and then he missed four games so my point was well they pushed it a little early and look what happened he missed uh multiple injuries missing time but then you know they did give him the ball down the stretch uh 14 carry game a 17 carry game well you know we we've got to keep this a little realistic uh so i have him with it's essentially 10 carries a game uh maybe just a little over 10 carries a game and i think that's very fair but uh For those taking them that early, at RB8, it's a bit much. It's before, granted, it is before, you know, we do have a drop off here.

But, you know, Travis E.T.N. is next at RB9. I've got him at 11 or 13. So we'll see what they do in the draft. That is a situation where they could draft a guy or maybe they go back to Tank Bigsby. I think Josh Jacobs, I'm actually lower, but I still like him. He's RB 10. I had him at 11. Derek Henry is RB 11.

I had him at 9. Believe it or not, a little more into Henry there. My guy Rashad White, still people are disrespecting him. Still, RB 12, and I got him at 8.

James Cook, RB 13. I've got him at 10. I'm not feeling it with the bills making a big splash move at running back. Not to mention the fact that it's not a great class anyway. So I'd be shocked

if they made a significant move there, although they should add to the backfield. Isaiah Pacheco was RB 14. I had him at 17. The aforementioned Ken Walker looks like I'm doing it again. And the markets are he was RB 15. I still only have him at 21 baking in some time missed. At this point, I think is fair.

Let's see, I've got him missing two games again, just like last year. I mean, the numbers are very similar to last year. The thing about him was while I came very close with the, actual projections, all the numbers, the bottom line was he was impactful when he was out there, you know, and he was a needle mover. So that's the challenge of basically using projections to do rankings because the projections have to be realistic. And when you have a Zach Sharbonate in the backfield, it's not realistic to project Ken Walker to get 300 plus carries, for example. But again, the guy is very talented, can do a lot with a little and there is a lot to be said for needle

movers. Aaron Jones is next at RB16. I actually came in a little light there at 21. Joe Mixen, RB17. I'm right there at RB16. Al Camara takes a hit with a half a point PPR, RB19. The markets have been at RB18, so that's pretty close. Once again, it looks like David Montgomery is being not disrespected, but not getting much love. Romandre, you know, on one hand, I can see the appeal of a little bit. of a buy low but bringing in mr gibson i think does hurt a little bit uh although it's only a half a point ppr you know the three down work for remandre that was a nice little thing and i think he'll get some targets on early downs but clearly uh they didn't bring antonio they didn't sign antonio gipson

and pay him decent money to be a runner because he stinks in that regard his vision is not very good so you got to get this guy scheme him up and get him in space then he can be dangerous so He's going to be a receiving threat, and that's going to really hurt Ramandre Stevenson. Tony Pollard is obviously a tough call. RB21. I came in a little lower there at 28. James Connor, we'll see what they do in the draft. RB 22, that's where I was.

Najee, RB 23, that's where I was. Echler looks like a little overvalued here, especially in a half-point PPR, RB 25, no way. Similarly, similar players, I think Jalen Warren is a little bit. little undervalued RB26. Actually, no, right around where I have. But I still think he's a little undervalued compared to Echler in that they're going off the board around the same exact time. They're kind of the same guy, but Warren's just a much younger version who didn't

look like he fell off a cliff last year. Let's be honest. So we'll see if Mr. Echler can regain the juice, all that that he had before. Was he just coming back from the injury? or did the injury and the other residual effects of playing on his small frame, did it rob him of that juice that he had? We shall see about that. Rahim Oster, believe it or not, I'm usually an agist,

but he came in at RB 18, only RB28. And here is another value, and I know I've pumped this guy up in the past and hasn't gone well, but I got to think Javante Williams is a good pick right now at RB29. Think of it this way. anybody with the gift of sight thought Javanti was a good player, very good prospect. I've actually had conversations about

Giovante Williams with my man Ladani and Tomlinson because I saw a little LT in Javante and LT agreed and loved them and LT this is coming out of North Carolina and LT is a running back savant one of the smartest guys I've ever talked to

him and Brian Westbrook in terms of ever work with those two dudes but I bring up the heavy hitters when I have some concerns about a running back. L.T. gave a full thumbs up endorsement for Javante when he came out. So we thought he was good then, and he was. Granted last year didn't look good at all. And yeah, I know Sean Payton likes a dual backfield and all that.

But Javante was also, you know, coming off that devastating knee injury. It was worse than Brees Halls. It wasn't as bad as J.K. Dobbins, but it didn't. feel a little rushed and he did look a little sluggish. Now, the old line there is not very good and that's part of the problem. But Javante is in the final year of his rookie deal.

And when you really look at trying to anticipate headlines, I actually haven't heard a damn thing about Javante Williams in the offseason, but would anyone be surprised if we get OTA notice? And more likely and more importantly, early training camp notice,

oh, Javante Williams, he's back. You know, he's moving like, he moved in 2022 before the injury or 2021, the rookie year. That, I feel, is likely to happen in the final year of his rookie deal. And they will need him. I know it's not a great situation overall as we sit here today. But I think Javante at RB29 is a buy for yours truly. My guy at Tage Spears, I have at RB 29.

He's RB30. I still like him as a buy. We'll see about what D.C. does. But my big takeaway from going deep under the hood of all teams was I could not believe how efficient the DC commanders were running the ball. They were up there in a lot of metrics, you know, yards before contact, yards per carry, things like that. Now, they did lose some players on the O line.

Zemir White, and we'll see about the Raiders. I did go ahead and do him, but he's looking like a small value there at RB 32. I've got him at RB 26. So there it is. Nothing earth shattering. I think we're looking quickly at Johnny Taylor as very nice targets. I mean, certainly we're in a brace hall. I am like Bejohn and Jemir Gibbs.

I like the big three in terms of young studs. I mean, Jonathan Taylor is still young, but not that young. But then the next tier for me in terms of appeal is, in fact, Johnny Taylor. Barkley, I feel pretty good about. I actually feel good about Derek Henry and Josh Jacobs. and I normally like to be I normally am cautious on older guys but these guys especially Jacobs

and Barclay are not that old. James Cook a little hanging in the balance there a little lukewarm on some of the veterans moving on to new teams, but I'm fine with Joe Mixin and I do actually kind of like Aaron Jones here.

And Dave Montgomery once again looks like a little bit of a value and we do have some guys that were, you know, we're certainly a little early on. We do have some teams that we need to take a look at. But yeah, that's a quick look at it. Again, nothing riveting. By the way, last year, I think probably the best thing I did with running backs was tell

people not to take them early. I was all about wide receiver. I was into that one anchor running back. And early on, I've done a basketball draft, by the way. I like that strategy again. There is a dead zone early on in the ADP, like round three. like nothing there. So I do want to get, you know, as many high-end wide receivers as I possibly can.

But I do think it's important this year to get that stud. And I actually think it's important if you're drafting at the top of round one. I'm very much looking to go running back there, believe it or not, even though I was so against it last year. I personally won't be taking Christian McCaffrey. But I would, in a heartbeat, take Bejohn Robinson, Briseal, or Jemir, Gibbs toward the back end of round one, that's when Johnny Taylor comes into the equation. Certainly love the stud wideouts, and there's not many of them, but this is a tier right here.

Bejan, Brice, and Gibbs, to me, after that, it falls off a cliff. These three are massively appealing in terms of youth, talent, versatility, durability, role. I mean, these are pristine guys here. So I would go RB at the top of round. Number one, that's another early takeaway here. My look at the running back position, I'll wrap it here,

and I'll get into the wide receivers. That will be a little more hit or miss because there will be probably more teams that I don't even mess around with, but certainly plenty of teams where, like, their receiving core wide out is good to go, not going to be affected dramatically by the NFL draft. So I'm going to go in on and do that.

And again, I'm just setting it all up for when the draft comes in a few weeks. I'm ready to get in there and make the post-draft adjustments. And we'll be ready to publish them at fantasypoints.com. Speaking to the website, make sure you continue liking, subscribing, consuming the content. It's all happening at fantasypoints.com for sure. Fantasy points data is taking over the world. I'm John Hansen.

Thanks for watching and listening. And we'll catch you next time. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.