Fantasy Football Daily - FANTASY PLAYOFF HOT TAKES & RISERS. The league winner is….(You Won’t Believe It!) | School of Scott

Episode Date: December 20, 2024

Welcome to School of Scott, the ultimate fantasy football masterclass hosted by Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com. In this episode, Scott and Theo Gremminger break down key takeaways from "The Everything Report." Week 16 Everything Report - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/the-everything-report-week-16#/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/ScottbarrettDFB http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/the-everything-report-week-4#/ Use promo code SCOREMORE for 10% off your subscription. Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

16 fantasy football playoffs are here. Two more weeks in every single league before you know who the champion is, before we know who wins the trophy, and before we know who wins all that money. This is the school of Scott. I'm Theo Greminger. Scott Barrett and I are bringing you episodes like this

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Scott, let's start it out. We're talking about a perfect storm of opportunity. One of the most exciting players in fantasy was in a shared backfield situation and still thriving. David Montgomery is now done for the year. Everybody's saying for the year, David Montgomery is saying, you know, I'm maybe going to not get surgery. Maybe I'll be there for the Super Bowl or something. But essentially, he's done. Jameer Gibbs last week went nuts, 28 PPR points.

Now he has the backfield all to himself. And when you add into it, all of the defensive injuries in Detroit, every Lions game is shaping up to be a shootout. And Jemir Gibbs is going to lead fantasy managers to a championship, obviously. This is something we've been talking about every single week in the Everything report. The massive upside should this backfield move away from a perfectly evenly split 50-50 backfield by XFSI. expected fantasy. But it was so frustrating. It's Jemir Gibbs, far and away, most efficient running back in football,

leads all running backs in EPA per carry by yards per carry, explosive run rate, mistackles fours, top five, and all those stats. David Montgomery closer to average. But again, perfectly evenly split, 50% of the backfield by XFP to Gibbs, 50% to Montgomery. And what has been far and away, the most valuable backfield. in fantasy by raw fantasy points by XFP. And so now you get a guy who's not just going to get 60% instead of 50% or 70%.

There's a chance he gets all of it. Craig Reynolds, Cion Bakke, like they're going to mix in a little bit. But if we say he gets just a 73% share of the backfield, let's say he's perfectly average in efficiency. You're looking at the RB2 by fantasy points per game. If he maintains his typical efficiency, you're looking at, 28.4 fantasy points per game. Those are numbers only Marshall Falk, Priest Holmes,

Lillian Tomlinson, Christian McCaffrey have ever reached. So clear league winner. We've talked about this all season. And now it's here. So shout out to everyone who drafted Jamir Gibbs, has Jamir Gibbs in Bestball Mania. I think the odds are really good. He's going to finish as one of the most valuable players in fantasy

just because of this David Montgomery injury. Yeah, the David Montgomery injury is massive. And anybody who's sort of like, you know, Scott, he was already going to be good. Here's a couple of stats for you. Every single game that David Montgomery has missed, Jemir Gibbs has scored a touchdown. And the fewest rushing yards he had in any of those games was 99. Every single weekly finish that David Montgomery in games that David Montgomery missed, Gibbs is finished as a top five running back.

running back actually. It was RB3, RB1, RB1, RB4, RB3. And I have a kind of a bold take to add onto this one. Scott's going to give you a bunch of data. I'm going to give you a bunch of vibes. Jamir Gibbs, well, after these next two weeks, after he wins titles, is going to be like the contrarian pick at the 101 heading into 2025. It Jamar Chase is the chalk. Sequin Barclay is the chalk number two overall pick. But Jemir Gibbs is about to average 30 points per game in the money weeks. People have recency bias. They're going to remember that Jemir Gibbs led people to championships. You're going to have David Montgomery coming off of a knee injury and he's getting older. People are going to talk themselves into Jameer Gibbs. And once you see what a sealing outcome

for Jemir Gibbs is in terms of usage, people are going to keep buying into that. Jameer Gibbs will end up being the chalk number three overall pick, and he will be the contrarian 101 for high volume drafters for people looking to get a little bit of an edge and looking to be a little bit different. And then you're going to get the people saying wide receiver ones never repeat as wide receiver ones. So Jameer Gibbs, remember that you heard it first on School of Scott, Dark Horse 101. You'll start hearing it a lot in January. I don't think that happens. It's happening. Don't forget Montgomery just signed a fat contract a few weeks ago. But this is, we're going to do a show in, I don't know, maybe three weeks or so, maybe more.

We're going to go toe to toe battling over. I'm going to give you my way too early 2025 ranks. You're going to give yours. You're going to have Gibbs much higher than me. I'm excited for that. Yeah, that's going to be awesome. And Shamir Gibbs is not the only beneficiary to the defensive complete breakdown in Detroit. Jared Goff also playing at an extremely high level.

What should fantasy managers expect for Jared Goff these next two weeks? You've got Chicago this week, and then you have San Francisco in week 17. And Scott, you bring up Best Ball Mania. This Detroit San Francisco game was circled by so many best ball drafters this past summer. Not necessarily the guys that we thought at the time would pop off. But Jared Goff might be the one. Yeah. So this is another situation we've been monitoring.

all season. Goff's been great. He ranks top seven in fantasy points per dropback. It's just that the volume hasn't been there. In victories, Detroit averages 27.2 pass attempts per game. That's like 43% less than the Browns. Only the Eagles would rank below that.

But in Detroit's two losses, Goff is averaging 57 pass attempts per game. He just had nearly 500 passing yards in a bottom six on paper matchup against the bills. What really matter there? Not the matchup. It was a pass-heavy environment due to game script. And when you're looking at a power law offense,

such a potent, deadly offense like Detroit, I think that matters significantly more than the matchup. It's important because he gets back-to-back bottom six matchups, these next two weeks, to round out the fantasy playoffs. But I think these are games where game script's going to be good. more importantly, Detroit is now without their workhorse running back and their defense has been utterly destroyed by injuries. So bad. And so I think all this forces Detroit to lean more pass-heavy. I think that's great news for Jemir Gibbs, who we just discussed is an obvious league winner.

I think that's great news for Jared Gough owners. Is he a mid-range QB-1 for me this week? I think he is. I think it's great news for Amun Ross St. Brown. In games, Detroit has posted a positive pass rate over expectation. He's averaging 13.5 targets, 133.8 yards, 28 fantasy points per game. That's like 2.5 times as many yards as he averages in all other games. So yeah, this is another thing to be on the lookout for this could swing championships. I'm expecting all Detroit pass catchers and the quarterback to get a significant boost over these next few weeks. Yeah, and a non-show sheet question, just your opinion, Detroit's been so banged up on the defensive side of the ball, losing Montgomery as well for like real life football,

also hurts them. How far is this team going to go? Is this a team that could like go out in their very first playoff matchup? Or do you still think Detroit's going to get it together and make a run in the in the NFC? I might have the Eagles above them now, just due to the defense, but I think it's really close. You dig into the analytics. It says elite offenses are typically more important, more predictive than elite defenses.

I know people generally think defenses win championships. They're more important playoff time. But this is just such a good offense that, you know, Buffalo didn't slow. them down at all. I know they lost that game. But yeah, I I'd bet on them going deep into the playoffs. Yeah, I think I'm with you, but I think I'm, I feel a little bit more strongly about Philadelphia, uh, like being a clear, clear favorite over them at this point. A couple other teams could be getting it together too, like Minnesota, Green Bay with Detroit, uh, their defense moving

in this direction. I get very nervous that their season could come to a like bitter and sad ending, uh, which is really unfortunate because we wanted to see this Ben's, Johnson offense in the Super Bowl that would have been amazing for us as fantasy managers. But hey, man, things happen in the NFL. We're going to take a quick break and we come back. We're going to talk about a ghost of Christmas past, a correlation play that might lead you to your fantasy championship. This Giving Tuesday, Cam H is counting on your support.

Together, we can forge a better path for mental health by creating a future where Canadians can get the help they need when they need it, no matter who or where they are. From November 25th to December 2nd, your donation will be doubled. That means every dollar goes twice as far to help build a future where no one's seeking help is left behind. Donate today at camh.ca slash giving Tuesday. Welcome back to the school of Scott. Scott, we got to talk about Devante Adams and Aaron Rogers. The connection that we saw for so many years in Green Bay shined last week.

Devante Adams was awesome. Aaron Rogers ends up having arguably his best game as a New York Jet. And this week, there could be a shootout type environment against the L.A. Rams in MetLife Stadium. Your thoughts on Devante Adams, how he's shaping up to affect leagues. Is this a player who could be a dark horse wide receiver one for the rest of the season? Yeah, I don't know if this is a hot take or not, but I think he's going to win you your championship. If you have him, I think he's an easy mid-range wide receiver one this week. I feel really good about it.

Since week nine, he leads all players in Target share. That was true even prior to last week's season high, 40 percent target share. He's trending in the right direction. 17.6, then 28.9, then 45.8, Draft King's fantasy points the last three weeks. 198 yards. That was the second most of his career. He's playing at a really high. level since week nine he ranks top 15 at ass through the first eight weeks of the season he

ranks second worse so uh really you see this performance tick up maybe it's him adjusting to this new offense and really hitting his stride but here's here's where the narrative gets a little i don't know conspiratorial maybe um this is pure conjecture but garrer wilson i think might be in the doghouse you saw his sideline tirade in the third quarter of last week's game Theo is is Aaron Rogers someone who holds grudges with wide receivers is that is that that's a thing that's that's a thing yeah that's a thing thank you and so after that tirade Adams had a 43% target share to Garrett Wilson's 9.5% he gained 186 yards with two touchdowns and a two-point conversion Garrett Wilson only had

2.5 fantasy points after that point and so on top of all this Rogers is looking for a new team. Devante Adams is $0 guaranteed on his contract. So Jets have nothing to play for, but he both might be auditioning for new teams, new contracts. So I can really easily see Rogers trying to help his BFF, who moved his family across the country for him to try and get his BFF a fat contract over these last few weeks. I think he's going to ball out. I think he's going to go crazy. What do you think about that? No, I think you're absolutely right. I think Devante Adams is a top five wide receiver the rest of the way.

And sort of this is sort of an overarching theme of this show. You know, we talked about Amman Ross St. Brown. We talked about now Devante Adams. Certainly the Jamar Chase teams are feeling extremely dangerous heading into their matchups. But this is sort of a revenge of the zero-r-r-be managers. League winners are not league winners until they win leagues. So like the whole narrative that these older running. backs were going to shape the season. What's happening? Last week, we saw poor performances by

Sequin, poor performances by Derek Henry. Scott's talking about Devante Adams winning leagues. This is a funny thing how the narrative shifts when we get deeper and deeper into the season. And I'll tell you what, like, Devante Adams, a layup, but I'm going to use Aaron Rogers in one or two spots this week. You know, maybe you were streaming a James Winston. Maybe you're not excited about a guy in the matchup. I think like chasing this particular game with Rogers at home coming off of a three touchdown pass performance, I think is viable. I'm a little going to be a little bit higher on Rogers. I think he's more of like a low end QB1 than he is a high end QB2 this week, but I think he'll have another strong one and the week before he had 300 passing yards plus. So I'm on

that one. Let's talk a little bit about Baker Mayfield because like if we if we take a step back and about the most impressive seasonal performance among quarterbacks. We talk about the best ADP values among quarterbacks. We talk about a guy who maybe changed our entire mindset about him as a player. Baker Mayfield should be on that short list. We're talking about a guy with 32 touchdown passes. He's quarterback five now. He hasn't gone away. It's a guy who early in the year was like the the QB2 and we're like, you know, he'll probably end up being a low end QB1. But now he's looking like he's going to finish as a top five quarterback. He gets Dallas and he gets Carolina the next two weeks.

This past week, they completely shredded the chargers. Mayfield had four passing touchdowns. He's had so many games this year with multiple passing touchdowns. And Scott, I think the most impressive thing for me is he was missing Mike Evans for such a long portion of the year. Chris Godwin went down with the season. injury and the main consistency in that offense has been Mayfield. Your thoughts on his impressive play this season. Yeah, he's been he's been awesome. And shout out to our, the Fantasy Points data

charting staff. They do a weekly article notes from the the charters, right? And since I think it was week three or week four, one of them wrote up Baker Mayfield as just like, this is a completely different player in this offense. And Liam Cohen deserves credit. He ranked top six in EPA per play. But Baker deserves a ton of credit as well because he looks like a completely different player. He's he's so much more confident. He's ripping the ball out. Velocity is great. Accuracy is great. And he said all this. And he said, I'd bet on this continuing. And it was like weird. It's like confidence. Like, I don't know. How important is that? But every like high level. film expert I talked to says that is really one of the most important things for a quarterback.

And so it's not just confidence, like personally, like who is the most got that dog in him player in the NFL? I think it's Baker Mayfield. You've seen him just like willing his way to victory or near victories like against the chiefs staying in these games, taking big hits. So he's just like awesome to watch. Like he's one of my favorite quarterbacks to watch this year. But yeah, from a fantasy perspective, no doubt. Top five leaves all quarterbacks in games at least 27 draft Kings fantasy points tied with or behind only Lamar in games at least 18. So from a DFS perspective, massive ceiling, massive floor. And what's crazy is to your point, yeah, Chris Godwin's missed seven of 14 games.

Mike Evans has cleared a 50% snapshot and only 9 of 14. and yeah, he's still playing. Like what if they find a way to retain a Chris Godwin, a Mike Evans and McMillan takes a jump, right? What could this offense look like next year? Or perhaps Leon Cohen comes back to my Giants and is a head coach next year. I can see that happening as well. So much to unpack with that.

I mean, Liam Cohen, I can't wait for when we do lessons learned. I think one thing that one of the most enjoyable articles you write all year, Scott, is when you look at offensive coordinators and systems. I think looking at kind of a bird's eye view of them, when we look at it recent to the season, Liam Cohen's a guy that, again, we're going to be super, super impressed with. And I agree with you. I think he's going to get at least a number of head coaching interviews.

But I think with Mayfield, it's another big lesson learned for me. like this guy finished as a QB1 last season. And I think we were a little bit too punitive collectively about the impact Dave Canales's loss was going to have on this offense. In fact, it's been a more exciting offense this year with Cohen. So completely with you, Mayfield great, Cohen great. Let's talk about Mike Evans though. Mike Evans is creeping up on history.

If Mike Evans finishes with a thousand receiving yards, he will be number two all time behind Jerry Rice. He's also like already in like rarefied air tied with like Tim Brown for the record now. But he'd be on his own at number two. Does he get there, Scott? Oh, yeah. I think he does. It's it's Baker playing a really high level, but Mike Evans playing at the highest level.

He leads all wide receivers and ass. He rang top three last year. He's doing this despite playing multiple games through injury. And the team acknowledged they would love to see Evans reach that feed. He only needs to average 84 yards per game to match the Jerry Rice record. I think he gets there. Yeah, and if you want access to all the ass you can handle, average separation score at Fantasy Points data,

use the early bird special and sign up for it right now. You'll have it all year long. Your draft prep will never get easier. And use the code school 25 for now on top of it, get a little something else off the top. We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, Scott and I are going to talk about a number of situations, including a pass-happy Baltimore Ravens.

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Get the yes you've been waiting for at Capital One.ca.ca slash yes. Terms and conditions apply. Welcome back to the school of Scott. Let's talk about these Baltimore Ravens because your giants, Lamar Jackson, completely shredded last week. And, you know, I said this to somebody else on another show this week, Scott. It's funny because usually when you see these games where Lamar has a great deal of passing success at least early on. Lamar might have like two or three touchdown passes, maybe one's a deep

one, and the Ravens are rolling. They'll completely take the air out of the football and just lean into the run game for like an entire quarter and a half. This was different. The Ravens continued to pass even when up. Lamar Jackson finishes with an incredible scoring line once again. I know that Josh Allen is the MVP, but for this thing of ours, Lamar Jackson has been, the ADP MVP at the quarterback position, just continuing to shine. Your thoughts on Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense heading into a difficult game against Pittsburgh. Could we see a pass happy Baltimore Ravens once again? Yeah, well, it was weird. You know, it was a 35 to 14 beat down and the Ravens never stopped

passing. And something you see when you dig into Lamar's numbers this year is like he's really beat up on the bad teams. You know, bottom three defenses, teams like Tampa Bay, the Giants, the Bengals, he's had four games against those opponents, and he has 18 touchdowns, zero interceptions in those four games. Crosses other 10 games, 16 touchdowns. And this is something you also saw last year. You know, it was a meaningless week 17 game against the dolphins. the game was over at halftime, but Lamar just kept piling on the points, 300 plus yards, five touchdowns. And again, this is pure conjecture.

It's maybe a little conspiratorial. But I wonder if, like, Harbaugh is kind of encouraging him to, you know, try to keep pace with Josh Allen for MVP, because that's what, that's kind of what he said after that Dolphins game last year is, you know, like we were thinking of that the MVP race and we hope. that Lamar put his final stamp on it with this game. And so I yeah, I wouldn't be surprised. You know, the Steelers are certainly a much tougher matchup than a Dexter Lawrence List Giants team. But I wouldn't be totally shocked if we see him, you know, have another four touchdown game either this week or against the Texans, a much softer matchup in the championship week.

Because this is another one of those offenses that is just like really good. It's like, sure, like Derek Henry could have had 220 rushes. yards last week, but they decided to go with a Lamar Jackson five touchdown game. And, yeah, I think that's something they could probably do against Houston as well. Yeah, it's funny. You know, Todd Munkin, as the season progressed last year, he leaned into the past more and more. And you had that AFC championship game where he was sort of the scapegoat where they only ran for like 80 yards. This is one to keep an eye on. And Scott, let's also talk about another Baltimore Raven. Zay Flowers, I can remember back in week nine, we did.

a school of Scott right after that Denver game. So it was the Denver, Baltimore game, where Zay Flowers had his exclamation point week, where he scored 29 PPR points, two touchdowns, had one of the nastiest cutbacks from the sideline to the middle, took it to the house, and we were all just going nuts about Zay Flowers and his rest of the season outlook. That was his fourth game out of five with like 20 points or more. And ever since then, it's been a lot of quiet weeks for flowers. He had an 11 point PPR week against the Giants in a game that the passing game was rolling. And in his previous four games, he never scored 12 points in any of them. What is your comfort level with using Zay Flowers? Should he be on the bench in week 16 against

Pittsburgh and at Houston in week 17? Do you see a bounce back potential? Where are you at on this one? Yeah. Yeah. So that's that's right. He had that four game high. You said four or five games. He got hurt in one of those games. So, you know, really four straight, fully healthy games, average 22.4. Since then, under 12 fantasy points in each of his last five. And so obviously this looks rough, but I'm looking at the underlying usage and 26.6% target share over his last nine games. You know, easy top 10 numbers at the position.

Zero games under an 18%. only two games in which he didn't lead the team. So just looking at that underlying usage, I think he's a low-end wide receiver two. There's just like frustrating volatility to his profile. I talk about him as a GPP play for DFS every week, where I think him and Jemar Chase lead the position in games with at least 21.5 fantasy points.

Flowers problem is like he's average single digits in every other one of his games. So volatile, but like at the end, end of the day weighing risk reward. I'd say a low end wide receiver too. Let's stay in the AFC North. We have the joy of talking about Lamar Jackson, his fantastic season, the joy of talking about a Todd Munkin offense. But now we have another very happy situation completely torpedoed. I don't think I've been as angry about a player being benched. Like when you're covering fantasy football all season long, you sort of roll with the punches.

But I am extremely emotional. I have a lot of Jerry Judy exposure, a lot of David and Joku exposure, some teams with James Winston. And we had circled this Cincinnati Cleveland game for weeks as a potential shootout. This whole Cleveland Brown's coaching staff needs to go. The front office needs to go. I'm furious. How angry are you about our guy, James Winston, getting bent. against these bangles.

I'm livid. This is what we kept talking about is like week 16, circle this matchup, James versus the Bengals trash defense. And obviously the Bengals have this super potent, deadly offense, shootout potential. And this is horrible.

Yeah. Judy ranked behind only Jamar Chase and yards per game since Winston took over. Now he is like, what, like going to automatically carry you to a championship. He's a wide receiver one right now. Jerry Judy could have finished as a wide receiver one. On that story, it's just the whole thing's disgusting.

So you're benching, clarify for everybody. So you are benching Jerry Judy whenever possible. You're putting him down there in the wide receiver 30-ish range, lower. Yeah, around there. I mean, I don't know that I'd bench him. It depends on who else he got. But he went from, he went from probably like mid-range wide receiver one in my rankings, which is not great to give you some context here um Winston was averaging 321 passing yards per

start against non-stealers opponents DTR averages 140 passing yards per start in his career and like a better perspective is like what he brings to the receivers Winston was averaging 70.7 receiving fantasy points per start DTRs is half that so it's it's just rough like it hurts everyone And it hurts the Bengals as well. Like, I mean, I'm sure they're going to crush and they're going to smash, but like the chances of a shootout diminish massively. Now it's probably more of a Chase Brown game when this could have been like a 50 points of more Chase game. Unbelievably depressing decision. I hope I don't like wishing bad things to happen to people, especially in the holiday season, but I'm ready for this entire Cleveland Browns coaching staff to go front office.

See you later. let's get some new blood in there. And this will be an interesting one for us to talk about in the offseason because the last few weeks we looked at James Winston as a potential at least really fun bridge quarterback. If not a guy who could compete for the Brown starting job, there's no chance it happens. If they're benching him off of that game when they have a AFC North game after his success in AFC North games, they're moving on from James this offseason. That'll be an interesting team to keep an eye on. they should be picking inside the top 10 as well. That one really took the wind out of our sales.

Let's talk about something happy here. Okay. DeVant to Smith and A.J. Brown both heavily targeted in a game. If you're a Devontas Smith manager, you absolutely loved what you saw in Week 15. We've had this sort of beef between A.J. Brown and J.L.N. Hertz. There's been all sorts of rumors with that. You've written about A.J. Brown about how, few routes run he's running relative to other incredibly talented wide receivers.

Sort of your thoughts on what you saw last week out of Philly and what we should see in the weeks ahead. A fun matchup this week against Jaden Daniels and the Washington commanders. Yeah, this is like what we were saying with the Lions, where it's Eagles ring dead last and pass attempts per game. And if they were just middle of the pack, there's so much potential and upside for A.J. Brown and Devante Smith. Last week, they leaned extremely pass heavy in a game they didn't need to. Sequin and Barclay got hurt, but he only missed a few drives and came back. And so what did you see? You saw season highs in targets, season highs in fantasy points for both AJ Brown and Devontas Smith. He combined for 90.5% first-read target share. I've never seen,

I've never seen that number over, I don't know, 70% ever. Maybe the last year's Waddle, Tyreek Dolphins did that once, but just a crazy number. And so it's, yeah, if this continues, this is a ton of upside. Does it? I don't know. It feels like, you know, there was all the drama with A.J. Brown, like the squeaky wheel narrative, him complaining. So, like, I don't know if that sticks throughout the rest of the season. and that might have just been like a one week outlier to remind folks like what they can do

when they actually lean into the pass. But yeah, the stat I had was if A.J. Brown had run as many routes as J. Marr Chase this year, he'd have 1,888 receiving yards, like putting him on pace to clear 2K. Well, you know, shout out to Kellyn Moore. Maybe listen to Scott a little bit. Our A.J. Brown's share, it's going to have been even better. But, you know, it's week, week 16, Washington, week 17, Dallas. You can just see a scenario where A.J. Brown goes nuts against these NFC East opponents over the next two weeks.

Even if the volume takes a step back, you know, he's one of the most exciting players at the wide receiver spot. A sort of remind you about what he's all about three weeks stretch. That would be great for us to see as fantasy managers and I think viable. This is a really fun one to watch. And that's a game that I think will be a very good one to watch. One game that I completely whiffed on. Last week, I made this bold prediction that the Carolina Panthers were going to beat the Dallas Cowboys by double digits. Chuba Hubbard was going to have a 30-point PPR week and challenge for RB1 overall in the week.

Completely whiffed on this one. Bryce Young went back to being bad Bryce Young. Four turnovers. He did have two touchdowns. So if you had to use them in Superflex, you weren't. like completely buried. One was a rushing score. One was a passing score. But the one player that I think was extremely tilting for fantasy managers was Chuba Hubbard because they had this game circled for multiple weeks. And this was sort of the theme of a lot of these running backs last week. Failed to deliver

a big performance when it mattered the most. But what did you see from Chuba usage wise? Is this a guy that you're still trusting as like a borderline RB1? Are we on a low end RB2? Like where are you at this? week on Chuba. Yeah, usage insane. 94% snap share, 78% route share. That means like he shouldn't be two game scripts sensitive. He kind of is, but that's just more like how often Carolina gets blown out. In games, Carolina hasn't lost by multiple scores. He's averaging 19 fantasy points per game, 21XFP per game. Those are both top three numbers. In all other games, he's more in the high-end RB3 range. So you look at the next two games,

Panthers are 4.5 point underdog. So like at least those spreads are kind of tight. To me, high-end RB2 is what I would say. The usage and volume is just so good. And hopefully we get more of the Bryce Young, you know, previous to this game, like the last three or four weeks

previous to this game, rather than the Bryce Young we got last week. Yeah. And two, two Chuba Hubbard's like credit, he still did get four receptions. So that's something we've seen for back-to-back weeks. I think that's a nice thing we can lean on. And I think in that Arizona game, a few more receptions on top of his rushing attempts would go a long way.

I'm with you. I'm just a little less excited about it. This is another quarterback situation to keep an eye on because Bryce Young had really built a good amount of goodwill over his last few weeks. But if we see another few clunkers like we saw against. Dallas. This could be one where they really go and readdress that quarterback situation in Carolina. Let's talk about in the NFC South as well. We talked about Chuba Hubbard. Which running back would you rather use in week 16 with the money on the line, Bucky Irving or Rashad White?

Oh, I'd go Bucky Irving. He's just so much more efficient. It was like a 50-50 split last week, but don't forget he's been dealing with injury. And so hopefully that, that continues to climb as he gets closer to full health. Yeah, I don't think we really need to talk too much about that one. It's Bucky over Rashad White. But if I had to use Rashad White, I could talk myself into it as well. Quick Dynasty segue. This has become sort of a hot topic.

And I know there's a number of people at fantasy points who might have differing opinions about this. Where are you at on Malik Neighbors versus Brian Thomas in Dynasty? This is a really interesting one because Brian Thomas, as sort of join Malik Neighbors in probable wide receiver one finishers this season. They were teammates at LSU. Malik Neighbors obviously was much more hyped coming into the season, but Brian Thomas has earned every bit of respect from the fantasy and dynasty community. Unbelievable run for Thomas was a weak winner this past week.

And Neighbors also had a strong game. Where are you out on these two guys? Yeah. So if you look at BTJ minus those three games where he was obviously. hurt. Averaging 17.4, the only rookie wide receiver since 2010 to rank above him, Jamar Chase, Puka, OBJ. So that's some great company to be with. 2.63 yards for route run, only Pooka Nakuwa's above that. And like this has always been one of this most predictive metrics for young wide receivers. So I feel really confident in his talent. I think he's still ascending

Freak athlete who is, you know, considered very raw coming out, seems to get better every week. So that's the stats for BTJ. The stats for Malik Neighbors is he has the highest target share, the highest first-read target share in fantasy points data history. That's any player, not just rookie. And he's doing it as a rookie. And to me, you know, I gravitate more towards volume, I'd say. and you know this is kind of who he was in college they were on the same team who was the alpha hog it was

malik neighbors there are games this season where neighbors has gotten 10 plus targets and he's you know bitching on the sideline demanding more targets and you know it like you love that attitude when you when you roster a player like that in fantasy and you know he's right too like you look at EPA per target he's one of the most efficient wide receivers in football everyone else in the Giants ranks, you know, bottom 10. So, yeah, get this guy even more targets. I feel more much more confident neighbors, you know, a little bit more quarterback uncertainty there. Maybe not if he lock up the 101 draft Shador or something like that. But yeah, either way, you're talking about a player who should be top 10 in Dynasty rankings overall.

Yeah, I think both of these guys are locked in as like top eight receivers in Dynasty. Brian Thomas year two will be one that people are head over heels to draft. I think we go back to look at a guy like peak Josh Gordon. That's for me what we could end up seeing if the Brian Thomas year two season goes in the ceiling outcome. But when it comes down to it, I still will defer to Malik neighbors. When we are trying to chase down what a wide receiver one overall is, three out of the last four seasons, this year it's going to be chased. but three of the last four seasons, it was the player that led the league in targets and led the

league in catches. And at the end of the day, what Malik Neighbors has been able to do this season, he has 90 receptions in only 12 games played. The only rookie we ever saw be this efficient in terms of games played and catches is Odell Beckham in 2014. Malik Neighbors, when it's all said and done, will have the most receptions ever by a rookie wide receiver. And I think this is the kind of guy that if they get their, they get their, you know what together in New York. And they have a Sam Darnold or Shadurr Sanders behind center. I think this could end up being Malik neighbors with an obscene amount of targets, an obscene amount of catches in year two. So I'm still going to defer to neighbors, but I think they're both

going to be extremely exciting players to draft this coming year. And if you have either one of them in dynasty, you're feeling pretty good right now about your future wealth and earnings. Let's see I keep this going. You've had a little dynasty segue. Another player who's gained exceptional amount of dynasty value this year, after losing some after his rookie year, was Jackson Smith and Jigba. This past week, JSN had a 50% first read target share. What is your thoughts on JSN this week?

Looks like Gino Smith is going to play. some fears that it might be Sam Howell this week, but I think that everything's sort of worked out. It's going to be Gino behind center. Your thoughts and expectations for JSN. Yeah, I think you nailed it. Remember, we were kind of waffling, or I was waffling back. I'm like, I'm scared to believe again, you know, but since, since Seattle's by five games, uh, ranks sixth and fantasy points per game, sixth and receiving yards per game, uh, you just had a 50% first first. target share. Not only was that like easily a career high for him, but it was the highest by any Seahawks

wide receiver since 2022. Um, seeing better volume, more volume than DK Metcalf. Um, yeah, I think, I think you're, you're looking at JSN as a wide receiver two this week. And Metcalf is only a high end wide receiver three. Scott's Keenan Allen comparison is officially back. We're excited about JSN. And JSN also chasing a fun outcome here. JSN, like, I love looking for guys who can set records. It's sort of an extra motivator and teams care about this more than you think. JSN right now has 83 receptions. The record in Seattle for most receptions in a season is Tyler Lockett just from a few seasons back.

I believe that was 2022. JSN has a chance to set a new record as a 22-year-old. This is another player, I think, when we look back at the same, season as a whole, people are going to get more and more excited about drafting JSN, maybe in the second round, early third round in 2025. We're going to take a quick break. And when Scott and I come back, we're going to talk about a potential sleeper wide receiver that might go in your lineup because of a quarterback change to Mason Rudolph. Welcome back to the school of Scott. So Mason Rudolph, back behind center, makes me want to put Calvin Ridley in my fantasy lineups. Should fantasy managers be

using Ridley in money making week 16 with Mason Rudolph behind center, Scott? I'm kind of excited about Ridley. In 9.5 quarters with Rudolph since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, Ridley averages about 11 targets, 17.2 fantasy points per four full quarters. And Rudolph has been like a serious upgrade. you look at him and his starts this year he's averaging 39.1 pass attempts per game 265.7 passing yards per start both of those numbers would represent 50% plus improvements on what will levis has done so yeah i'm i'm kind of i'm kind of excited about this i mean we'll still

have to wait and see like this is just not a good offense but um it should be a clear upgrade for Calvin Ridley, who leads all players in uncatchable air yards this season. Yeah, if only my league rewarded money for uncatchable air yards, but Calvin Ridley shares really would have paid off. Ridley's an interesting one because he did have those two big spike weeks. So you have that in your memory, but he's been also been a guy where they've been sort of few and far between. But Indianapolis, I can kind of talk myself into it.

And I'll say this, Scott, if we see enough there, he'll be one where you're much more excited about starting him in week 17 against Jacksonville. That might be one who might be like a weird draft pick who helps shift people in best ball championships and potentially even redraft ones. Your thoughts on the backfield in Tennessee. We saw a big Tijey Spears game. Is this something where you could see it happening again?

It was really a weird one. Tajie Spears won that for weeks we sort of lost a lot of luster and then all of a sudden he has a week like he did this past week. I don't want to talk about the Titans backfield. This is this has been I'm sure driving Ryan crazy because he writes up most of the running backs every week. And it's like, oh, Pollard's, Pollard's the bell cow. Oh, no, now it's a committee. Now they're just rotating drives.

But last week it looked like Pollard was the early down workhorse and Spears was the clear pass catching back, which is like he's good at that. But all, and maybe, maybe that's the more valuable role with Tennessee likely to trail their next two games. And, you know, Rudolph targeting running backs at a higher rate. But yeah, I'm just not really excited about either these guys. It's kind of like a gross committee and not much upside on this bad offense. Part of Ryan will be very pleased, though, anytime the 23-year-old outproduces the 27-year-old because Ryan is a known ageist. That's right. But other than that, yeah, stay away from this one.

It's a really, really gross question as well. Let's get back to talking about some good teams and some good players. What about, you know, let's talk about a good player, but not necessarily a good situation. Desmond Ritter's impact on Brock Bowers. We're suffering a little bit here, Scott. Do we get a lifeline this week against Jacksonville? Yeah, yeah. Ritter has been horrible for Brock Bowers owners.

Ritter's targeted Bowers on only 15.6% of his throws. He was at 25% or more with both Gardner Minshu or Aidan O'Connell. Luckily, Antonio Pierce says he believes O'Connell's trending towards playing this week. So you're back to Bowers as a top three tight end, if that's the case. Yeah, I had this conversation with somebody else earlier this week about it. I never thought I'd be this excited about a potential return of Aidan O'Connell. that's just how bad Ritter was. Some of the plays in that Atlanta game were just inexplicably bad,

and the Vegas still finds a way to lose the game. This is an interesting one. Your thoughts on Michael Pennix taking over in Atlanta, not on the show sheet, but does this do anything to sort of change your outlooks for the usage for the Atlanta receivers, potentially the usage for Bejohn Robinson, or is it something where the whole offense just potentially gets better because the threat of a Kirk Cousins interception,

maybe drives are more sustained? Sort of where are you out on this one, Scott? Yeah, I'm excited about it because you look at, you know, panics coming out. One of the knocks on him was he had these three elite wide receivers in Romo Dunesay, Jalen Polk, Jalen McNillan, but it's like, McMillan hasn't played well. Jalen Polk has been horrible.

Romo Dunesay struggled, although I think most of that's on Caleb Williams. And so, like, he's sort of like a stock riser just based on that, right? I think we talked about it on this show. I called him like the reverse Mettenberger, right? But I think this could theoretically benefit everyone. I think I could see the team leaning, you know, more run-heavy because it's like a rookie making his first start. But, like, that's exactly what we saw last week.

The team does not trust cousins at all. he threw only 17 times to 34 backfield rushing attempts on Monday night. I think Mooney could benefit because Pennix, they were saying, you know, one of his greatest strengths was his deep ball. He threw this elite deep ball that, like, might be the best since Russell Wilson. Or he could just lock on to Drake London in a way that cousins really didn't for much of the year because we see rookie quarterbacks do that constantly. just kind of lock into the trusted number one.

And just I feel like efficiency has to improve because just how bad it was with cousins. So I'm excited about this. Falcons get the giants who Lamar just badly beat up on. So I think they could kind of do whatever they want. I think if they want to kind of highlight, showcase panics, I think they could do that. I think more likely Bijan just goes nuke. and Algeria maybe also has 80 rushing yards, but we'll see.

Yeah, it's for for Michael Penix, the schedule actually works out fairly well because you get giants this week and then week 18 we don't care about for fantasy. And if you're in a league that still is playing in week 18, you might want to change that up. But he has two games where he could shine both at home. This could be one where Pennix gains a little bit of momentum. And I'll say that what I think's going to happen is, you're going to see a rebound from Kyle Pitts and not saying put him in your lineup,

but I think he's going to get people to overdraft him for like the 10th season in a row because of the Michael Pennix factor. Let's talk a little bit about this Miami situation because Jell and Waddle not practicing today, it looks like Waddle is going to miss out. We could have a very consolidated target, very consolidated target tree

with Devani Chan, Tyree Kill, Jonu Smith, heading into this week 16 matchup against San Francisco. This is a weird one because this is a game where before the season we would have been extremely excited about this one. Both of these teams, big disappointments. Your thoughts about Miami in this matchup in a consolidated target tree? I'm excited about Jono.

You know, I went heavy on him in DFS last week because he had those three massive games. And then he struggled the week previous. I was kind of just saying that was because the Jets stupidly stubbornly played a ton of single high, which you just never do against Miami. And most teams don't do that because they know. And so last week he was right back to, you know, sort of the number one role on the offense, had a team high 11 targets, four more than anyone else, a bunch of design targets. Scored 19.8 fantasy points.

And it honestly should have been an even bigger day. He just narrowly missed two. two touchdowns and some throws inside the 10-yard line. And, yeah, you look at what he's done over his last five games, 8.8 targets, 79 yards, 16xFP, 22 fantasy points per game. Those are all wide receiver one numbers and best on the team. So I'm excited about him. He's a great DFS value again this week.

Unique upside, unique volume for a position that's otherwise pretty frustrating and volatile. It's simply awesome when you look at the tight end scoring leaders and you see Jono Smith ahead of Travis Kelsey and Mark Andrews. This is another player where when we talk about lessons learned, this was the year of the free agent. And guys, when teams go and target these players in free agency, I think Johnny Smith will be one where we have to be more open minded to a role change and a guy potentially thriving in a new situation. Johnny Smith's just been awesome. I'm with you.

I think this is a guy who could really impact the next two weeks. You've seen him have so many games, Scott, where he's giving you like very high-end production now over the last eight weeks or so. I'm very excited about this one. And anyone's scoring at home, our guy, Devon A-chan, is leading all running backs and receptions. We told you this weeks ago, A-chan's at the top. And now you have Alvin Kamara potentially dealing with an injury.

If Camaro misses out, your expectations for Kendrae Miller. Yeah, I'm pretty excited. It seems like Darren Rizzy really likes him. The commentary on him seems like they have full faith in him. Jamal Williams is still there. Jordan Mims is still there. But neither are guys that I don't know. I'm excited about.

I don't think they're excited about it, not really playing for anything else. Might as well get a good look at this guy you've had on your team for a while. who just hasn't ever been healthy. It's also a horrible offense. New Orleans is implied for just 14.3 points against the Packers, according to Vegas. So not a ton of upside, but desperation flex play. Yeah, I think that's a good way of putting it. I would say desperation flex play with some juice because the guys running efficiently.

And they nearly made a comeback against Washington. Washington and Miller played very well like right down the stretch. So this is one where why not let Kendrae Miller have 25 touches this week. And I think that could totally happen. Let's talk about another player who's a deep sleeper for this week. We saw Evan Engram go to the IR and Brenton Strange this past week led all tight ends with 12 targets and 11 catches. This was a second round draft pick. This is not like some guy who was just obscure. Your thoughts on Brenton Strange to close out the fantasy football playoffs. I'm pretty bullish on this one, Scott.

Yeah, me too. So we know how crucial the tight end position is for the Doug Peterson offense. And it's also Mack Jones, who loves tight ends. He's targeted tight ends at a top six rate among all current starters in the NFL. And, yeah, 12 first three targets last week. There was the second most by any tight end in any game this year. Offense seems like it's really just BTJ and Ingram. And yeah, I think he's a tight end one this week.

Okay, I'll give you a live. Our very first ever, School of Scott, StartSit decision, live on the air, big money FFPC Dynasty League that I've shipped back-to-back seasons. This is a competitive triflex format. So it's super flex, wide receiver, heavy, but it's still tight end premium. Mark Andrews, Brenton Strange, and I have one of the tight end roster, Dalton Schultz. It's been a struggle at the tight end spot this year. Which way are you going there?

Mark Andrews, the Blue Blood, or Brenton Strange off his 12, target 11 catch game. Tight end premium. Tighten premium, I think you've got to go strange. I think the PPR, it's a lot closer just because touchdown upside, Charlie Kohler out for the Ravens. But I don't know, maybe strange in both, honestly. Yeah, that's where I'm leaning. I'm going with Strange. So strange things happen in the fantasy football playoffs, and it's Breton Strange over Mark Andrews. The last team I want to ask you about before we get going, Chicago Bears, your trust.

We talked a little bit about the Lions. We talked a lot about the Lions. Their opponent this week is the Chicago Bears. And this Bears team took them down to the wire on Thanksgiving. This is one where Detroit got off to a really red hot start. Jamir Gibbs had that fumble right before halftime. Chicago played extremely well. And then we had the craziest non-timeout call ever to sort of end the game.

But Chicago, which wide receivers are you trusting the most? And I quantify it for everyone. DJ Moore is a wide receiver, what? Keenan Allen is a wide receiver what this week for fantasy managers looking for start-sit decisions? Yeah, I'd say more is a high-end wide receiver. to Allen, a mid-range wide receiver two, O'Donzei, a high-end wide receiver four. Caleb Williams is a little tough to trust.

He's by a number of advanced metrics having one of the worst rookie quarterback seasons in a half decade, like arguably worse than like a Zach Wilson, maybe even a Bryce Young. But the volumes there, he's very schedule sensitive. So he's really feasted in these bottom five matchups, which maybe Detroit is now given their injury situation. And since Thomas Brown took over, Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, both top 12 wide receivers and fantasy.

Maybe what's more is on Thanksgiving when these teams played. They both scored at least 23.5 fantasy points. And Moore had insane volume, 16 targets, 34.1 XFP. That was one of the six highest XFP games this entire season by anyone. So, yeah, I'm excited about them this week for sure. Yeah, and if you, like, I'm with you. I think this is a game where no matter what DJ Moore is in your lineup,

but I'm also pretty excited about Keenan Allen and this one. I think this is one where like we talked about, it's going to be an over environment. It's a soft defense. As long as Caleb Williams doesn't go absolutely nuts, then this is one where it should be beneficial for us, fantasy football managers on both sides of the ball. Scott, we're going to be missing for like a couple

weeks now with the holidays coming up. Let's get a holiday movie recommendation from Scott Barrett before we close this thing out. Wait, what is it what is your favorite Christmas movie? I got a couple. I got a couple. So for the adults out there, obviously it's Christmas vacation. And then for the kids, home alone is the unquestioned goat. That one is fantastic. Home alone one. Home alone two. And then my sons my sons they love red one red one just dropped on amazon prime a lot of haters from the adult community on red one but it's the rock christmas uh my sons look me look me dead in the eye and they said that's just as good as home alone if not better i was shocked i was shocked scott i'm gonna have to disagree with well i mean i i think home alone is great but when you're talking about christmas

time you're talking about it's a wonderful life which i isn't just far and away the best Christmas movie ever. It is maybe the best movie ever. Like if you want to look at my rankings, it's going to be a bunch of film snob movies like Lawrence of Arabia, Godfather one and two, a bunch of Scorsese. But like maybe honestly number one in the list is it's a wonderful life. Miracle on 34th Street is up there. Some really good old Christmas movies. Yeah, it's a wonderful life, goaded, watch it. Might be my favorite movie ever. Let us know in the comments.

It's a wonderful life or home alone. Where are you at on this one? A big thank you to our audience who helped School of Scott grow. It's been a pleasure for me to have a chance to join this show this year. And hopefully we've put out some content that's helped you win. Now it's time for us to take advantage of all of the moves we've made this year and go win a fantasy football championship. Good luck and happy holidays.