Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Points Data, Some News, and RB Contracts | Take Talk Podcast

Episode Date: July 22, 2023

In a jam-packed Take Talk show, Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7) and Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) discuss the launch of @FantasyPtsData, hit on some WR news with the DeAndre Hopkins and Denzel Mims moves, and wrap it all up by breaking down yet another round of RB contract negotiations gone wrong for the players. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Take Talk podcast. My name is Stephen O'Rourke, and as always, I'm with my co-host, Brett Whitefield. He's back, and he is feeling better than ever. his magnum opus his dream has finally come to life and been put onto the internet the data suite is live brett how does it feel to see this thing that you've been working you and others but like

you know this was kind of your baby in a way how does it feel to see it like finally come alive and really hit all the marks and all the praise that you know we really thought it was going to hit yeah it's it's kind of surreal to be honest so like i think we were talking pre-show a little bit like when we were leading up to monday it just this thing's been in the works for so long it didn't feel like anything like there was the weightiness of like the grind that we've been on to get this thing out there but that feeling of satisfaction hadn't even remotely entered my orbit yet right and not like even monday morning it's like oh cool it's it's launch day yeah that's cool just a day though you know not not really overly excited and then when that first tweet went out

announcing we were live i got snuck up on by some emotions steve i was like oh yeah this is crazy and to the point where like i i totally freaked out i was so excited i was you know i wasn't like crying or anything but i was emotional like yeah had that feeling in my stomach i ran out into my livinger and talk to my wife like i was so pumped she was gone i run out to i I run out to my grab my phone. I call Scott Barrett to talk to him because I'm so pumped. I need to like talk to somebody and just yell. Right.

He doesn't answer. So then I call Chris right away and my phone like breaks in the middle of that so I can't get a hold of Chris. So my only option left, Steve, is I ran out into my front yard and I let out the most primal Viking victory scream of all time. And my neighbor across the street who is new to the neighborhood was working in his front yard. It totally freaked them out. It scared the living day. That's how I mean, he turned around and said some obscenities to me. And I just said, sorry, dude, big day and ran back in my house. But like,

that scream was blood curdling. I bet you they heard it in Allen Park, Michigan. It was so loud. I thought I heard something over, over this way a little bit. I thought I heard a faint, yell. Yeah, do you watch, or have you ever watched Entourage? A little bit, but probably not enough to know the reference. It's like, it's like when Johnny Drama just like runs out and screams, victory out over the mountains. It's just like this. It's just like it is. It's cool. It's like, you know, like I said, I feel like this is, you know, I've been,

I've been privileged enough to be along for the ride these last couple of years and see what has gone into like all of the background and figuring this thing out from, you know, a staffing standpoint from, you know, the last year trying to figure out how to get this lot, how to get this live with the devs and, you know, the team at fantasy points. So to see it all come to fruition like this and, you know, to see all the work that like you and Chris and, you know, the devs and Scott Barrett and all these guys have put into this to make it be what it is. I mean, we've seen it a couple times from some from some pretty big people that like you couldn't really have asked for a better launch of this. I mean, it's really showing its chops and it's like true power as like the data platform that we were looking for. For sure. The response from the community has been unbelievable, dude.

Incredible. So many influencer level people in the space have just totally doted on us and completely unsolicited, by the way. We didn't pay any of these people. That's what I mean is that it's like it's not this, you know, it's not like we had this ring of people that we were like, all right, you know, on this day, we need you to, you know, send a tweet, send something out. This is just purely organic people who, you know, are associated with you, associated with Chris, associated with other people, no fantasy points and all that, just going and checking it out because we've had this lot, this free preview and really just realizing that like it is, it's incredible. I mean, it's, it's like every data point that nobody has really had access to. it has been you know you've seen these these different data points uh you know cited by different people but you never had access to this but now that's like that's changed you have this this ability to

look at all of these insane fun insightful stats in one you know one compact easily available area for sure um well why we're on that subject why don't we just show off the power of the tool a little bit I know I've pulled some stats just, you know. So like I come at it from a, like we are a fantasy company and the tool is definitely very fantasy and betting friendly. If you were in the fantasy space or betting space, this tool is customized for you. Yes. It was incredible. But even if you're just a football fan, which I am at heart.

Like I do play fantasy, but that's not like my, I don't filter everything through a fantasy lens like my coworkers do. Same here. Who's breaking news? My first instinct isn't like. oh how does that affect fantasy no it's like right football take i have a football take so right here's what i do with the tool and this is how i use it uh an observation i had and i think a lot of people had last year and when you talk to people in nfl circles they'll say the same thing is around week nine last year Trevor lawrence your guy by the way something clicked in his head and it just

you went from hey you know what we're a little worried about this number one overall pick you know he's kind of struggled through 25 games to holy crap, this dude is a freaking annihilator. He's going to kill people. And so you have that, that eye test when you're watching the film and you see that. Something happened in week nine, Trevor Lawrence is phenomenal for the rest of the season. So what I can do is I can go in the tool and I can start looking at stats, looking at data points, just looking, you know, doing splits from weeks one through eight and then nine through 18. And here's what I found. And this is like literally two minutes of just looking at the tool. So clean pocket pass rating

for is the most sticky QB stat there. It's the most predictive of future success and it's the most indicative of probably a player's true performance throughout the course of a season. Because what that tells you is the play was favorable for him. He had control in that play.

The play was in his hands. Clean pocket. Decent, you know, good time to throw. He had time to process information, etc., etc. So we've done studies over time. We've seen that this is the most sticky QB stat. From weeks 9 through 18, Trevor Lawrence's clean pocket pass rating was 105.8,

ranked fourth in the NFL, behind guys like Mahomes and, you know, the greats of the NFL. He fit right into that mix. His completion percentage over expectation against man coverage was 12.4%. In fact, he turned into a man coverage destroyer. It got so bad down the stretch, you couldn't play man against Trevor Lawrence. His passer rating against man, weeks 9 through 18, Steve, 134. Jeez. That's insane.

It led the NFL by like a country mile. He had like a 9 to 0 interception, touchdown interception ratio. His hero throw percentage jumped into the top 10. I think it ranked 8th. And his turnover-worthy throw rate dropped all the way to 0.5% over the final, what is that, 10 weeks of the season. 0.5%. Only Justin Herbert had a lower time to throw, or turnover-worthy throw. rate and Justin Herbert only throws the ball three yards downfield at a time.

So crazy. And so I'm able to pull that just using some simple filters. I'm looking, you know, I'm putting the week splits on, looking, you know, it compiles all the data points from, you know, the weeks I'm looking at some of our signature stats like completion completion percentage over expectation is already in the chart. I didn't have to do anything special for that. And then I put a man coverage filter on. And it's just that powerful.

Within two minutes, I can, you know, take my narrative from the eye test and prove it true with, you know, a couple minutes of work. Right. Yeah. Like, I mean, I've, same as you. I'm like pulling it in a sense of like viewing it from a football lens, not so much a fantasy lens as well. And just like interesting things that I've seen. Like I saw Stephen Ruiz put out a tweet the other couple weeks ago about Jared Goff throwing into like advantage advantage. advantageous situations, which is basically just like throwing against like seven man box with

four defenders, which like in the in the modern NFL is kind of like your, it's just an advantageous situation for an offense. You've got less athletes or less like speedy athletes, less, you know, defensive backs out there. You're going to get, you're probably going to get better matchups. And like, you know, what teams do that best? You see that like, Gino Smith in the Seattle offense had 116 attempts against that situation. seven plus man boxing for and four defenders. And he had a 107.8 rating like quarterbacks that are able to do this, I'm pretty sure almost 20 of them have a pass a rating of 90 or above in situations like

that. And teams like Seattle was really a good at it. It makes you feel good about the potential of like what C.J. Straub can do because Houston was at the top with like 89 dropbacks against it. Jared Gough excelled in it. So like that was a cool. That's a cool stat that I went to look at or like you can even, you know, affirm. situations that, you know, you've heard about, but you haven't necessarily, like, you don't necessarily, like, you don't necessarily, you know, haven't been able to look up the stats.

Like, you know, Russell Wilson on in-breaking routes over the middle of the field had a 54 pass rating against, on situations like that. Last in the NFL. My man is blind. Last in the NFL. And then, like, you know, I went and looked up, you know, what defense is it most difficult to throw downfield against, like, passes 10 or more? And, you know, you had the teams that you thought would be up there like Philly, the Jets, Denver, but then there were two surprises in there. Seattle was up there.

They were number one with a 61.1 rating and a 61.2 quarterback rating against. And they were the 12th highest, like 12th most attempts in the NFL, or percentage of attempts against them on downfield attempts with 30% of their passing attempts against them going down 10 or 10 or more yards. Oh, wow. So just like, and then, like, and then Houston was number four in that, which I thought was really interesting. And they were 15th in percentage of passes thrown down field against them. And so, like there's just so many different things you can look into that, you know, like you said, can span both just football knowledge as well as like, I think that, like, I truly think this is going to be like very helpful for anybody that wants to bet the NFL.

There's going to be so many ways to match up guys against defenses and kind of make very informed. decisions on, you know, who you, who you want to play as far as like overunders on receiving yards, rushing yards, you know, touchdowns, different things like that. Like, you know, D.K. Metcalf had, was tied for the most red zone targets last year and 75% of them went to the end zone, which was like double the average percentage of most of the other guys in the top 10. You had like, and then there was a guy like Amuneraz St. Brown who, you know, he was up there in the top 10, but I think only about 20, 28% of his targets in the red zone went to the end zone. So, like, you can see why, you know, like how Jamal Williams or like how, you know, teams like

the lions are going to, you know, get short yardage running situations because they don't target the end zone a ton. They don't target their like top guys into the end zone a lot. It's a lot of short yards, a lot of like short of the end zone. So that's why you get a situation like Jamal Williams, you know, scoring 18 rushing touchdowns last year. And so it's just like the amount of things that you can pull and the amount of like, you know, it's great. You can make your narrative work for you, can make it work against you, or you can, you know, find some nuances that you didn't know were there.

Yes. So if you haven't checked it out yet, please go to FantasyPoints.com. There's banners everywhere on the site to check this out. There is still a free trial in place. it ends soon. So you are limited on time. I think you'll probably have until Monday to check that out for free. After the free trials up, you'll have to pay 50 bucks to get it more than worth it. The normal price will be $200. But as we've discussed already on this pod, Scott Barrett hates me. So we're with 50 bucks for the year. Yeah, that's 50 bucks for the entire season. One time.

One time. And then it's there for you. Yeah. And also, we're not done either. Like this is not even. No, no. It's finished from the standpoint of like, it's, amazing and you can come out of it right now but we have so many ideas we're I mean phase two is already being developed right now we're rolling that out there'll be I think three new tools added to the site before the season starts so it's it's going to be insane um yeah check it out it is definitely worth your time you will not regret it um also shout out to our entire development team they really crushed this obviously especially down the stretch um as the pressure started to mount with release day.

They, you know, carried the brunt of that, including Chris Wecht into that conversation as well. He was instrumental in getting this thing over the finish line. So you guys are at the goats. And is it a team effort? Couldn't be more proud of what we've done. I'm excited to see where this goes. Yeah, it's just a start.

This is just like the starting point of this all. It's only going to get bigger and better. Yep. All right, Steve, let's transition. Before we get into the topic of the day, which is we are going to talk about the whole running back of value controversy. But before we get into that, let's hit a couple bits of news, shall we? Let's do it.

Marvin Mims gets traded to Detroit. And the trade terms are very interesting. Detroit gives up a conditional sixth round pick for Marvin Mims and a conditional seventh round pick. Denzel Mims. Did I say Marvin Mims? Yeah. Wice? Did I say that twice?

Or just... I think just once. Okay. Denzel Mims of the New York Jets, not Marvin Mims, the newly drafted second round pick from the Denver Broncos. Anyways, Denzel Mims, who was a second rounder in 2020. He's actually one of my favorite players in that draft class. One of my biggest all-time misses, actually, Steve, was Denzel Mims. But anyways, the Lions trade, a conditional six-round pick for Denzel Mims and a conditional seventh.

And the conditions are crazy. It's based on if Denzel Mims makes the Lions 53-man roster, the pick swap happens. If he does not make the roster, there's no pick swap. So literally, the Lions got a basically, they just jumped the free agency line, the waiver way. We're going to cut him anyways. The Lions, who did have a need, by the way, at Receiver, we've been talking about this. They needed a X. I mean, I know they like Josh Reynolds quite a bit, but just you didn't feel great. It just feel super comfortable with, you know, the collection of Reynolds, Marvin Jones, and the rookie Antoine Green, who Antoine Green, by the way, is a Denzel Mims, Columbia.

So I think that is kind of funny. You know, with Jameson suspended for six weeks, I definitely think this could potentially help the team. I think it's a really good move. This reminds me of something Harvey Roseman would do. It's like really low risk with a chance for a decent payoff. Yeah, especially considering like you said, it's just a conditional pick swap. I mean, they had when the original talk that they were going to wave him came out, they had thrown a conditional seventh on him if they, you know, have a team signed him.

So it's basically the same thing, like you said. They just got to jump the line. And it makes a lot of sense because when you look at the guys that you mentioned outside of Antoine Green, Marvin Jones and Josh Reynolds, the two, you know, who would be the primary outside receivers are not speed guys. They are possession type receivers who are, you know, more get it into them. You're not looking at a lot of yak. whereas bringing in Denzel Mems just gives you the ability to potentially stretch the field more. And a lot of people have said it.

But that's really what this is, is it just provides a little juice into that receiving room without James and Williams. Because before that, they were going to be, like their speed threats were if Antoine Green shells out this year, which, you know, he's a seventh round pick. So you can't really bank on a ton of him year one because, you know, he's going to be a raw guy that you're not really looking. looking at, you know, a ton of meaningful snaps. And then, you know, Cully Freeman was probably the other guy out, you know, before Jameson, you know, who get out of the slot, who can get speed. And so, like, this just provides a guy that, you know, potentially can kind of take the top off of defense and stretch the field a little bit more

and give them the ability to kind of, you know, not be so, you know, you can't, you won't as easily be able to throw just a shell over top of them, knowing that Marvin Jones and Josh Reynolds aren't really going to break you down down the field as much. Yep. It's a, it's a, honestly, it's a good DJ, a cheap DJ chark replacement. And one thing Brad Holmes has done, and we're talking roster construction on this podcast all the time. It's basically our thing. And we'll get into that with the running backs later.

But one of the things I love about what Brad Holmes has done since he's been in Detroit is he takes like a money ball approach at wide receiver. or even at other positions too. It's like, I'm going to attack this with volume and chances are we hit on one of these guys. So year one, you brought in freaking four receivers, I think it was, you know, Tyrell Williams and S. Berman, Amon Rae St. Brown. And obviously they hit on Amonrae.

So they got a guy. Then they draft Jameson Williams the next year. And now this year they needed to replace Chark. And so they add Marvin Jones Jr. They draft the guy in the seventh round and they make this, you know, savvy trade for Denzel Mims. It's like, well, yeah, on the. surface, none of these guys are needle movers, but you're playing a moneyball approach where you're just

hoping that one of these guys sticks, they really fit with the offense, develop rapport with Jared Gough, et cetera. So I do like Holmes's approach. He seems to know how to fix problems without spending a lot of capital. Yes. He takes a lot of low risk moves. You know, I'll say, you know, Jameson Williams was more of a, you know, high risk move as far as moving up to get him, but they believe in his talent. But other than that, you know, like even bringing in Josh Reynolds just as a guy, you know, they brought in midseason because they knew he had the report he asked with Jared Gough. And, you know, these, it's a sum of the parts approach kind of way of like we try.

They like they trust in Ben Johnson. They trust in the offensive structure that they have and they believe that they can win with scheme and with, you know, the talent that they have. They don't need to necessarily. not that it's not great to go get, you know, a top tier wide receiver. I'm sure they would like to. But in the interim, while you, while, like, you may not be as high on certain guys or you may not have the ability to go after guys like that, being able to bring in guys that can contribute and, you know, be an asset to the offense is, you know, is a huge,

is a huge thing. Because if you look at a team like, you know, Tennessee, they've had, they've kind of been barrel diving and not had the best receiving core. And like you see how not bringing in the right guys for your system and the right guys who can really, you know, you can pull a little bit more out of can be a detriment to the way your offense runs. Yeah. Let's just jump right into Tennessee because that's the other bit of news we got to talk about here is DeAndre Hopkins signs with the Tennessee Titans, which they probably on paper had the worst wide receiver room in the NFL.

Yeah. I'm trying to think of a team that's worse. Is there one? No. I don't think there is. Not really that close, though. Yeah, you're taking, you know, you're taking a really bad receiver room and you're adding, he's probably still a top 15 receiver. Obviously, for like dynasty purposes, we don't view him that way.

But as far as like for one or two years, he's probably still a top 15 guy. He immediately, maybe even top 10, I don't know. I hadn't really thought about it that much. but you're immediately elevating that room quite a bit. And I think this Titans' offense now is a little sneaky. They obviously have the great run game. Their offensive line, you know, they bandaged it up a little bit this offseason. Ryan Tannhill is still one of the most underrated QBs in the league.

Henry's still ticking on all cylinders. They bring in some help with Taji Spears. I like the development of Chicaquonquo. He really showed out at times last year. And now you have. Traylon Burke's going back to what is probably a more favorable situation for him, which is the wide receiver too, where he can really thrive on those design targets and get him involved in the screen game,

the jet game, some of those dump offs they like to hit him with, and they can kind of work him over the middle of the field a little bit more while Hopkins is that boundary receiver who's really, you know, the target hog. I just think the offense as a whole is extremely elevated at this point now because of Hopkins. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, it makes sense. they have a strong defense.

I mean, that that was kind of what they were going to hang their hat on this year. And this gives them the ability to compete again this year. It's not that like they're in a super strong division. They're in a division that, you know, it's the Jaguars right now. Yeah. I mean, seemingly the winners. Outside of that, you have Indy and Houston, who both brought in rookie quarterbacks who are both, you know, mid rebuild, both new coaches.

And so, like, you're not necessarily expecting them. to compete for the division. So, you know, with the talent that they have on defense and then, you know, still having Derek Henry, still having Tannhill, like you said, it makes sense to, you know, let's, you know, why not make a push for this guy who can potentially elevate the offense and give us a chance to, you know, take another run at a playoff spot because it really gets there. It could be there and available to them.

And, you know, Vrable's been very, very good at getting the most out of his teams and getting his teams to be in positions to, you know, compete for a playoff spot. So I think that, you know, it feels, like, my initial reaction was that I wasn't a huge fan of it because I felt like it was time for, you know, Tennessee to kind of commit to a rebuild. But, you know, it gives them a chance to compete and not be, you know, just abysmal. Like what they were looking down the barrel of was an abysmal offense with a good defense and a lot of 13 to 10 games. Yeah. It's it was tough. You know, I agreed that they probably should take a step back and try to rebuild or at least reload and take this year off. But when you're in a really bad

division, you have a really good veteran head coach who just knows how to motivate his guys. You've got an underrated veteran QB on an expiring deal. And then you've got tail on defense and you've got an aging stud running back. It kind of just makes sense. Like, yeah. All right, let's just kind of keep pushing the the ball forward here and and maybe we can win another division title out of it and you know what's it like yeah we like we both like jacksville a lot this year but like yeah i'm not gonna confidently say that they for sure win that division i think tennessee's definitely gonna be in the mix you know i mean yeah i have questions i mean i have questions about jacksonville's defense i mean they that is an that is a legitimate concern going into this year and so not why not take advantage of that and plus it you know it's a

little bit forward thinking if you when you think about it that you know let's say they do want to move to Will Levis and give him a chance. Giving him a receiver like DeAndre Hopkins can help his development so much. Yeah, it's a great point. You know, the last thing you ever want to do is put a rookie quarterback into a terrible situation and, you know, run them out of the league because, you know, because you're not setting him up for success. At least this gives him a guy that he can lean on if he does come in and play and a guy

that he can trust instead of, you know, leaning on Tray Lemperks taking a step. and then Nick Westbrook Aquine and, you know, and like hoping that Jacob O'Quonquo becomes your, like, primary receiver at tight end. Like this just gives him a chance to potentially develop a little bit better in the beginning and give him a, you know, more of a fighting chance to become, you know, who he possibly could be. Yeah, we saw it last year, too, with Malik Willis when he came in.

That offense was so barren with talent. He was already a developmental, and I think Will Levis is actually very similar. They scored very similarly for me and my scoring model. And obviously, Levis gets a little bit better draft capital. But point being, like, these are developmental guys who have a lot to learn to be good going forward. You don't really want that type of quarterback playing in games when the situation isn't ideal already. So Hopkins is huge for that point. That's a great point.

I hadn't thought about yet. So that's cool. No really other news. We're still on Delvin Cook Watch. Yeah. So with that, well, and this transitions perfectly.

We want to talk about the running back controversy this week. None of the franchise tag running backs got a deal done. And that's Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Sequan Barclay. Sequan Barclays floating out or threatening holdout. did you see his quote from yesterday he appeared on a podcast yeah i did i watched it and i saw it in written form wasn't any better i don't know it's he doesn't seem committed to the holdout to be

honest it seems like the precedent for it is not the best the one guy that didn't melvin cordon they both got shafted. Yeah, and it's like, look what happened to the like post career holdout. You know, it's, uh, leaving. Leveon went to a different team on a, what, three year, $54 million deal got cut after one year and has been nothing. So obviously bouncing around team, you know, different teams. Right. And so like, yeah, the probably like obviously different players, but the precedent of, you know, guys trying to do this isn't, you know, isn't the best. Like, you can't look at it and say like these guys had success in performing this holdout. Yeah, one thing that like, so let's discuss the current, I want to attack this conversation

in three phases. The first one is what is the current landscape for RB Valley in the NFL? I know personally, I'm getting like, like, we've been on this, this road for about 10 years where the NFL is getting, they're realizing that running backs aren't overly valuable. The average draft position for running backs has gone down significantly. you know you're not seeing this year was different we had bejohn and gibbs both go in the first round but that that was rare that hasn't been a thing really in a while yeah mcalfrey four net i think was the last duo to go in the first round at running back um it just you know back like go 20 years back there'd be five running backs that go in the first round right there was three in a row

one year second third and fourth overall picks it was what catalack ronnie brown and and uh uh, Cedric Benson. Yeah. You know, like that, like that doesn't, that's never happening again.

Like, right. And so analytics have obviously helped with this, but, you know, painting the picture of what running back value really is. What you see is a lot of replacement level players perform very well for their teams.

And so, you know, not to mention the fact that running the ball has become devalued a little bit as well. So the combination of running the ball not being super valuable and replacement level players performing at a high level, um, it has legitimately devalued running backs. Now, is that, like, is that sad for people that play running back?

Sure, it is. But it's, people are calling it, like, unfair and stuff. And I've seen a lot of people calling for the NFL to intervene and not allow franchise tags on running back. Like, this is all ridiculous. If, like, if you don't want to be put, you know, in those shoes, then don't play running back, I guess. But we'll talk about that later. But, yeah, what are your thoughts? Like, I mean.

What it seems to come down to is that, like you said, the traditional running back, between the tackles, grinder, 20, 25 carries a game, that's going to the wayside a bit. I still think there's a value in having a legitimate difference maker, but the difference maker nowadays is, you know, a guy who's multifaceted that can be used in the run game and the past game. And I don't think there's anything wrong with that. I mean, you've seen teams that have premier talent at running back make runs and go far. I mean, Derek Henry and Todd Gurley, like different guys like that that were on the higher end of being paid. They, you know, they help their teams to one seeds and deep playoff runs and things like that. I just think that it just the difference between a top tier running back and a mid-tier running back is so much slimmer. now because because of like the running back because of the running back by committee you can get

different guys that do different things and have them be a pseudo complete back yeah well also what have we found out using analytics last few years like one throwing the ball the running backs is overrated it's it's not a huge needle mover for the offense and in fact you would probably rather put slot receivers in the back field than throw the ball to them it'd be a more valuable play so even those guys that are super dual threat, you can use them a variety of ways. It's like they don't actually move the needle that much. McCaffrey's probably the outlier example. Right.

I think there was a year. Yeah, EPA per play. You know, that's that. Expect the point added. So there was a year, I think McCaffrey's best year in the league. He had as much EPA per play receiving than any other receiver in the NFL that year. Only time it's even remotely come close to happening. For the most part, throwing to your running backs is a negative EPA outcome.

Whether that's 10 yards downfield or behind the line of scrimmage. So analytics has really helped us kind of figure out what the value is. And then you mix in the fact that these guys have really small shelf lives as well. And it has truly become a running back by committee approach. So like you can piece together a complete running back with three guys. and then you're going to get more shelf life out of them. You're not going to pay them as much. So it just makes perfect sense.

I mean, it's just that. The shelf life is a big thing. You're not seeing running backs last as long. Like a second contract running back, which a lot of these, like, you know, the Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Sequin Barclay, all three of those guys except for Jacobs really have the history of getting dinged up. And so like that's like he's had catastrophic injuries. Right.

And that's, I mean, that's a huge part of it is that like the downfall of paying a guy that much in giving him like a decent amount of guaranteed money and then losing him, you know, two out of three years is a legitimate risk. I mean, it's just the NFL is bigger, faster, stronger now than it was 20 years ago. And, you know, defenses are much better at scheming up against the run and, you know, really bringing guys. in and it just increases the injury risk for guys. And, you know, that's why I think Derek Henry was able to get his second contract, though, is that he didn't get dinged up. And that's the biggest asset you can be as a running back is available nowadays. And you're seeing the shift of, and I think that it'll be, I think Bejohn and Jemir Gibbs

will be a very interesting use case to monitor this year because we've heard this in the past of we want to use running backs more in the passing game. You've heard it time and time again year over year of different guys who are going to be used in the passing game. But then it doesn't really happen. McCaffrey's really the only one that you see it a lot. Sequin, you've seen it a little bit too. But like, is the next step for these guys to legitimately become like viable

receivers like not in the backfield? And then are they even like, do you still label them as a running? back like because if you can get them to be solid decent route runners out of the slot that you know that adds more value so that's what i was going to say is like sayquan has been using the past game but not in any creative type of way he's been right right right effie actually has lined up outside and in the slot yes i think like david johnson from the cardinals of year now unfortunately he was drafted as like a 25 year old so his shelf life was really really small but right levy on bell in his prime he was using the slot a lot alvin canerra

Those are more needle-moving situations for sure because they're being deployed in different ways that, you know, kind of extend that value a little bit more. Bejohn and Gibbs both have the talent to do that, to your point. Yes. And I think that's why we saw two running backs going to top 12 this years because Gibbs legitimately could play wide receiver in the NFL. I think Bejohn has reps on tape, albeit not a lot of them where he actually looks like a wide receiver already. So he has some good downfield receiving tape of like him actually going up for contested targets and you know pulling down the ball. He's got reps against like where they motion him to the slot and he's running, you know, like a seam or a post route against the cornerback and crushing him. Right.

So both those guys, they're different for sure. Now, you're spot on. Those two guys will be a really good case study. How do they actually get used and does that help reestablish some running back value or or, or, paint the picture for what a valuable running back looks like. I think there's a chance that those guys do. And that's ultimately what has to happen moving forward. Like running backs, if they ever want this to come back around where they're being,

I don't think they'll ever get to like a wide receiver level value, but where they're getting value enough to easily get those second contracts, they have to reestablish a position. And some of this falls on the NFL shoulders too. And offensive coordinators, play callers, they have to take, you know, guys that are more gifted in the past game and you know you're you might not care about the derrick henry's as much anymore he and he's an extreme outlier himself because he's so good running the ball right but i'm trying to think of a guy who's like like a david montgomery type

like he's a replacement like he's good he's a really good running back but check rindled probably isn't that much worse than right you know what i mean paul williams who was a fifth or six round pick isn't that much worse so it's like those types of running backs probably need to go away for the value of the position to bounce back, unfortunately. The other option is, what you see in the free market all the time is like, so kids, elite athletes coming into college now, they're just not going to play running back anymore. They're going to, if you're 5, 9, 200 pounds,

you're not going to play running back. You're going to go play slot receiver or you're going to play defensive back. You're going to play safety. You're going to learn corner. If you're on the bigger side for running back, 511 to 6-2, 220, yeah, you're going to go play line. back here, you're going to go play, you know, X receiver, strong safety, you know, things of that nature. You're not going to, you're not going to play running back anymore. Those elite prospects will stop,

they'll stop choosing running back as their position. And then- Sean Taylor was the one that let the child, if you ever, if you ever go back and look at it, Sean Taylor, honestly, like, may he rest in peace, but like he had the foresight. Even back then, he was in high school. He was the top running back recruit. And they recruited him to go to Miami me as a running back. And he said, no, I don't think that's where my value is. I don't think there's that much value that I want to play safety. And he would have had an incredibly long career probably would have been one of the top

paid safeties in the NFL probably would have been one of the best safeties ever. And, you know, it's situation. It is. It's guys that, you know, like even from an injury standpoint, just like I think it's going to come down to guys saying like, I, you know, I don't want to take the risk of, you know, being thrown in a dog pile, you know, 20, 15 times a game. I want to be able to get out in space where it's one-on-one and I want to be able to work against guys and I want to be able to, you know, not have to deal with that intense wear

and tear that comes with running between the tackles. And I agree with you. I think the biggest thing is that offensive coordinators are going to be, have to be the ones that make this push and, like, get away from the traditional running. back role. You know, as much as, you know, the onus is on, you know, players to develop themselves, it also comes from coaches, like, not only developing them, but also then deploying them in the way that they're developing.

And that's what we haven't seen is that, like I said, we've heard the talk for years and years of like, oh, this guy's going to get used more in the passing game. This guy is a great receiver out of the backfield. And then you see him used in a pretty, you see him used in a pretty, traditional role where it's getting checked down routes and then it's running between the tackles, running outside the tackles. Green game. Yeah, and then that's all it is.

That's their version of we're going to use them in the passing game more. You need, like, it's going to be needed that like you're going to have to work them into space and work them as actual receivers if you're going to want to see this change that could come for running backs. For sure. we've kind of seen like probably the last 10, 12 years running back is getting smaller for sure. So like there is a transition happening. Yeah.

But ultimately, like guys like Bijan, like Bijan and Gibbs are both five-star recruits, Steve. Like they, I think you'll start seeing guys like them say, yeah, I'm not playing running back in college. I'm playing. Right. There's no reason Bijon couldn't have gone to Texas as a wide receiver. Now maybe. And that's the thing that's got to be tough because running back is an attract. Like running back does matter at the college level actually.

Yes. Defenses are a lot worse. As you see like what Michigan has done to the Big Ten in the last two years just by running the football. Right. So like there's an attractiveness to it, I'm sure for kids. It's like, oh, I get to touch the ball 20 times a game. That sounds really cool. 100%.

If I transition to receiver, I got to go compete with five other dudes and then I might get five targets in the game. Yeah, that's a tougher route for sure. The other transition, Steve, I think you'll see happen is a lot of these really good running backs. And you saw it this year, actually, with Blake Corum, they're going to stay in college for their senior year. Yeah. The NIL money is better than the money they'd be getting paid. Like, Blake Corum's making over, he's making like $3 million this year. He's making more than the entire second round class of Jonathan Taylor's group.

Yeah. So he's making more than John Taylor. He's making more than DeAndre Swift. He's making more than Antonio Gibson, and he's a senior in college. So you're going to see that a lot, running back staying in college longer for those NIL deals. And so I guess the big question of all of this and one I want to pose to you is what happens with running back pay? Where does this go? I mean, do you ever see them get to the point where, you know, like, for example, you know, Todd Gurley and 20, what was it,

child girl in like 2018, 2019, he's making 14 mil a year. Do we, do we see that again? Do we see that? Or are we just looking at a cap on it of like, where,

like, where does, I guess where's the roof? Where's the ceiling for this? Because it's seemingly, like this year, more than ever, like it's plummeting.

Like, it's, it's the one thing talked about with running backs is, you know, drafting Bijjan and Jemier Gibbs in the first round. One of the big talking points was, well, they're now,

the, you know, 15th, 16th, 18th, highest paid running back. Like, do you, do we ever get to a point where these guys are making that much again? Or, like, because that, you know, that's going to be the biggest driver of what happens with the position in the future. I think ultimately it can bounce back a little bit. I don't think it will ever get to where it was. But, like, this year, you saw some decent running back contracts. Like, Miles Sanders got, what, four years, $24 million.

Yeah. David Montgomery got the three in 18. That seemed to be the template was the $6 million a year. If you're a competent running back that can play on run and pass downs, you're going to get $6 million a year. Now, Sequin Barclay settling for $6 million a year? No, that's why they couldn't get a deal done, I'm sure. That is going to be the new norm.

I think that will be the starting point. And obviously with the cap inflation or whatever, that template will go up every year a little bit. But I think that's going to be the starting point for a competent, every down running back. and then where the superstars fall on that spectrum, the gap isn't going to be as big as it used to be. And this is kind of how I wanted to close the conversation.

What is the optimal roster building strategy right now? I used to be super anti-running back in the first round because of the replacement value, the surplus thing. But if you start venturing outside of the top 15 and even into the late 20s, is it possible the most optimal strategy is to take a running back in the first round? you get your fifth year option on them,

which is pretty cost controlled. And then you get a six year franchise tag. Yeah. Cost controlled. And so you're essentially capitalizing on the peak of a running back's lifespan and then not having to commit to them long term. Is that possibly the optimal build right now? Or do you think it's still going late round running back by committee?

I kind of agree. I agree with you. That's where my head was going to was why not, take a chance on these guys that are billed as first round talents and, you know, really get the most out of them and really like get yourself a difference maker at that position. Because while, yes, we've talked about how, you know, it's, you know, Jamal Williams had 18 touchdowns, different guys that, you know, have been late round picks that, you know, have been serviceable. There is value in having a guy that is, you know, a top tier in his position. And so I think that that's probably the best way to go about it is to, you know, if you have the ability, go after that top tier guy in the draft and keep him controlled and see how he works out because even if it fails,

you can take another shot at it. I mean, obviously you don't want year after year to be investing first round draft picks into a running back. But, you know, what, I take out CEH from. the situation because, you know, we agree that he probably should not have been taken where he's taken. But like, why not have a team, like a contending team, like say the bills or the chiefs or someone like that, you know, going out in the first round and getting a running back who can provide legitimate upper value at that position, control them for a while and then have and then, you know, bring in pieces behind them to kind of create that committee and, you know, lighten their load.

But again, I think the biggest thing is that if you're going to do that, you have to use them in more ways than just the running game. I think that is what needs to happen is you have to see the creativity of offensive coordinators with running backs increase. Because I mean, I truly think that's what the dead zone that we're caught in right now is that nobody is, it's the one position that you're not really seeing a ton of creativity around it's still you know you see creativity in blocking schemes and run game but like you don't see it as much in usage of the actual running back and I think that's what needs to change if anything

you're seeing it go the other way right you're seeing like the san francisco four dyners use debo as like basically their RB2 and their wide receiver one you're seeing the lines have used amonraa st brown in the back philerser than the back you're seeing cordell patterson in Atlanta literally play 50-50 running back wide receiver. So if anything, it's probably gone the other direction, not running back being more flexible, but receivers being more flexible. But I think Josh Jacobs,

I'm looking at his career earnings right now. He might be the perfect example of what I'm talking about here. His rookie deal was a four-year $11.9 million contract as the 24th overall pick. He wasn't really, so like follow his career track. He wasn't really performing that well. he was good but not great. They didn't commit to his fifth year option because the franchise tag was only $400,000 more than the fifth year option.

So it was like, cool, why commit? Because the fifth year option is fully guaranteed. So why would you get to that two years earlier or whatever? So they get out of the fifth year option. They instead franchise tag him a year later after he broke out and led the league in rushing yards. And he's only going to make 10 million this year. And he's probably one of the top five running backs in the NFL. So it's almost I'm I starting to think that like a late first round pick is a perfect way to handle drafting running backs.

Even even if you're drafting them on day two though, you still get the franchise tag as an option for your first year. Right. And then after that, I mean, all of these running backs going back to Todd Gurley, going back to Lev Bell, none of them are completing second contracts anymore. No. Jeffrey's going to be the first one, I think. And that's still an if. He ain't there yet. Right.

Let's see how he plays this year. But yeah, Mixen didn't make it through his second contract. Camara didn't make it through his. Like there's been, I'm saying there's been adjustments, you know, to both their deals. I mean, Mix and remix and just restructured. That's what I'm saying. Yeah. He didn't make, he just signed that deal.

I want to say last off season. Yeah, he was making, because he, he was making $12 million a year. Yeah. So I think the era of the big running back second contract is over. What I think a happy medium could be, Steve, is maybe instead of a four-year deal for the second contracts or a five-year deal, I think McCaffrey got five. But maybe we go shorter term, but bigger money. So like two years. Yeah.

Yeah. We're getting them above the $10 million mark, which is what I think they're saying they want. and you're just doing it for a shorter term. Maybe you fully guarantee it. Maybe you go two years 24 fully guaranteed. And that's a good payday for a position that's all the time. And you're getting that fully guaranteed. I think that could be some happy middle ground.

Yeah, going the route of like, you know, what guy, you see that in the NBA a lot, actually, is now NBA contracts are different. They're fully guaranteed and everything. But that's more of a control situation from the player's standpoint. But still, like, it gives you the opportunity of two years, re-evaluate the market, then go and potentially then start picking the teams you want to go to where, you know, you can contribute more. Maybe you see, as a running back, you see the opportunity in different offenses to go and be more of an asset, more of what you want to be as a player in a different system. And like I, it'll just, like I said, I think it's just going to be. interesting to see what happens with Bijan and Jemir Gibbs because I think they could really set

a track record for running backs to come and guys that start coming into the league, you know, more often. And I think that that's where you'll start to see the divide and where guys go. Like, if you are, if you're just, you know, a solid runner between the tackles or just in the run game altogether. You're going to see those guys, I think, start to drop into the third, fourth, fifth, sixth round, but it's going to be those guys that can show legitimate chops in the passing game and being able to deploy them in different ways. Those are the guys that I think are going to be the ones you want to go after in the first round, the ones that, you know, kind of bolster your offense in different ways than just, you know, handing the ball off to them.

Right on. All right. I think we succinctly covered that. We spent about 25 minutes talking about running backs, so I'm not talking about them for the rest of the year. I'm just kidding. I still don't think any of the, I still don't think Saquan Barkley holds out. I think if anything, like I thought, I think I thought this when Lavian was there too of like, especially on the team like the Giants, the best way you can prove your value is to, I think, show up and, you know, be a big part of the offense, be as integral part of the offense. you know, just kind of show it.

I think the only reason Saconne Barclay's in the situation is that he's been hurt. If he hadn't been hurt, I think that he probably gets paid. That's his biggest downfall right now is that can you trust him to be there 17 games out of the year, every year for the length of an extension?

Yeah, they all, all three of the guys that got franchises this year have something that maybe is prohibiting them from getting that contract they want. Yeah. Same one is to injuries. Pollard, it's basically that he did it for one year at a high level, like where he was the guy.

So, yeah, they're not, they probably don't want to invest a ton of that, not knowing that he can hold up in the long haul, because he's only like 200 pounds. And then Jacobs is, you know, he kind of underperformed his first few years. And McDaniels comes from that Patriots cloth where they don't invest heavily in the running backs ever. No. So I think James White, you know, was the one guy they gave him. a big contract to and it was like four million bucks a

a year. And he was the RB two who contributed a lot in the passing game. And not to throw too much at the end of this, but like roster construction around the running back I think is big too. Like bringing it like no, don't invest the first round running back onto a team that has

a, you know, a shoddy offensive line. I think that's a big thing. Yeah. That's a big thing too. Is that like these teams that are in, like look at Sequan Jacobs, those are guys went into situations where their offensive line was kind of garbage. Nage.

Naja Harris. Yeah. So, like, I think that there needs to be more thought process behind it. You know, it's not just an individual contributor. There's a lot more that goes into how a running back performs. Even by you just saying that, you have proven the point about the value of running backs. Right. 100%.

This ecosystem in this roster building to be that favorable to them where it just shows you that, like, it's just, you know, their outcome depends more on other players than any other position. Yes, 100%. Anyways, let's wrap it there. Yep. Everyone, thanks for listening. We will be back next week. There is talk about maybe going to two episodes soon, not sure when,

but we'll discuss that and get back to you on that. Go check out the data tool. The Fantasy Point is live. It's free and free. Monday, I think. And then after that, it's still stupid cheap. So check it out. It is game-changing. The industry has noticed, and they are, they are blowing it up for us. We haven't to have to do much marketing ourselves yet. So anyways, go check it out. I'm Brett Whitefield. This is my co-host, Stephen O'Rourke, and we are out.

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