Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Points Podcast | Guru's Draft Recap + Players to Avoid

Episode Date: July 22, 2024

In this episode of The Fantasy Points Podcast, "The Guru" John Hansen and co-host Brian Drake break down the players they are avoiding for their fantasy teams in 2024. Where to find us: httpp//twitter.com/Fantasy_Guru http://twitter.com/DrakeFantasy http://twitter.com/FantasyPts FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey, what's up? This is John Hansen. And coming up on this week's edition of the podcast, we're in late July now, basically. So we are running out of time in terms of the off season. So it's almost go time. I did a draft in Philadelphia on Sunday, the 14th of July, live for Sirius XM with a bunch of listeners. And I drafted a pretty good team. It's always difficult for me to, draft while hosting a radio show and going up against people who basically know every single thing in my head. But I did pretty well. So Brian and I on this podcast go over a lot of my selections and my thought processes. And then we get into with the 200, top 200 cheat sheets up at FantasyPoint.com done by yours truly. We go into some overvalue players, players who are mispriced and are going off the board way earlier than I think they should. So sit back. and enjoy this very large podcast. It's almost an hour and a half of content.

We thank you, as always, for listening, subscribing, throw us a bone, give us a good review. And as always, you are welcome. All across the fantasy universe, welcome everybody to the Fantasy Points podcast, Brian Drake alongside the guru, John Hansen. And Guru, a lot going on. It's training camp season. People are reporting finally.

We're having actual real news to talk about. You're on the move, which is, you know, big news. So I want you to fill everybody in here. I hear you've got a long overnight trip. You're going to become a long-haul trucker in your spare time now. What's up? Yeah, what's up? Great to be here, as always, doing this brand new but not new podcast.

Yeah, I timed everything out appropriately. We're going to be, we're still at least a week away from, major news. So of course, that's the time I'm making a major move from New Jersey to Georgia. And in preparation for that, and I've been swimming with that for a long time. But again, I timed it out in a way that when I'm in there settled in, well, a week or nine days, that will be right around the time that things start really heating up. And I'm used to this. We've done this forever. There's always something major going on when Whenever we move, we did this 12, 13 years ago, we moved.

And it was chaos. And then the first day that I was like, okay, I feel settled. It was like, and it's go time for the season. It's like August 1st. So very much used to it. But yeah, I am this weekend. So when people hear this, I'll have already done this. But I am renting a 20 footer and doing it myself, loading up.

And, you know, I don't want to bother anyone else because I'm all. of flying back. But I'm loading up a 20 footer with all, you know, things that I can lift and carry, which will fill up the truck, smaller items. And I'm driving it down there and putting it in storage and then flying back. And then we'll wrap it up next week. I'll do the podcast. We'll probably record a little earlier next week like Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. And then it's goodbye, New Jersey. Although I still, you know, I still have, you know, a presence here. But in terms of my primary residence. It'll be Georgia in about nine days, eight days.

Man, you're going to be sweating it out down there. There's a good luck driving the U-Haul. There's a hilarious clip from family guy out there that I told you about where it's a guy just swerving down the road in and out of lanes, just running into people. And it's a U-Haul commercial. It says, don't worry about it. You're moving. And the guy's like, I don't know how to drive this truck.

Who cares? You're moving. Ah, you're moving. It's like you have carte blanche. I'm going to be fine. but if I have to do a lot of backing up and into things, that could be a problem. But, you know, just put me on the road.

I think I've driven a 20 footer before. I don't know if I've driven one 900 miles. But as I told my family, they're like, oh, how are you going to do that? I'm going to do what I've been telling all you people to do your entire lives. When faced with any challenge or adversity, I'm going to suck it up and get it done. You guys across America right now are probably driving yourselves.

So we're going to make it entertaining for you. What we have on tap today, the guru competed in a live draft in Philadelphia last weekend with Mr. C, Adam Kaplan, Paul Kelly, and a bunch of fantasy football morning listeners. There's a lot of fun over there, garage fish town in Philadelphia. So we're going to break down round by round John's draft when he was on the clock, who was available, what was he thinking in terms of roster, who might be coming back to him. We'll pick his brain. It's going to be great. He had the second overall pick.

In the second half of the podcast, we're going to look at Guru versus ADP. There's a number of players that their ADP just doesn't vibe with what Guru has in terms of his top 200 sheet, which just dropped at FantasyPoint.com. You can get John's official rankings. You go over there today. It's in the cheat sheet tab, FantasyPoint.com, where all your fantasy football needs are met. I got a number of players here, John, where their ADP just doesn't match you. You're way lower on all these guys than ADP. That's going to be a really fun conversation.

So let's start off with this track. Oh, real quick. Some of those are rookies, by the way. And, you know, my projections, the main reason I have these discrepancies, I think, is because I'm actually going off of projections. So to have a big fat projection, one must have a big fat role, but a guy like Roma Dunesay, yeah, I'm sure he'll see the field plenty in 11 personnel, but I don't know if it's going to have a big fat role in terms of target share.

So here's an example of a guy who's overvalued. And it's not like I don't like Roma Dunesay. I'm just putting a puzzle together. And right now his piece is small. People are drafting as if it's a gigantic piece like Keenan Allen's going to get hurt. Yeah. And you know, you could talk a little bit about his offensive coordinator who had a great young rookie last year in JSN and everyone was super excited about

JSN. What did he do? You know, Jack squat in that offense. Everyone but me, by the way, I was like, no. Way, way over. And this is like a new thing. People are, I used to be the one overvalued the rookies. Now everyone else is. Now you're pulling back on the rookies. So, well, let's

talk about this draft in Philadelphia. So it's great to get out, see the people. You get to hang with Mr. C. Paul Kelly was there. And I don't know how it happens, John. I've listened to a hundred drafts that you've been in. Somehow you always have one of the top picks. You're either like one or 12, right? It always happens that way. I think Timmy Reardon from Sirius XM is getting greased under the table,

but you had the second pick in the draft. If he is, I don't know about that, by the way. I swear to God, I do not have any say. I've never said, oh, get me here. Never, never, never. There have been some other ones. I remember one of the year I shit the bed in the ACI draft had the seventh pick. I think it was 2019, maybe it was 2018, and I'm like, yeah, I should have taken McCaffrey. I guess it was 2019 to the second year. I don't know. Maybe 2018. I'm like, McAfree's 80P was like 15.

I'm like, ah, you know, I should take him here. And I was like, eh, it's a little early. Let me just get A, B. And that was the year A, B started to fall off. So I have picked in the middle. Well, speaking about Christian McCaffrey, speaking about potentially falling off, he went 101 in this draft to Adam Kaplan. So you didn't have an opportunity to take him.

We're going to talk about CMC a little later. So you had CD Lamb last year's number one overall player fall into your lap. Was there any thought of Tyreek Hill or if CMC was available to you at 1-2? Would you have pulled the trigger on him there if Lamb went one, which I think a lot of our listeners are going to see happen in drafts? So at that one or two spot, which is your lean? was not taking McCaffrey look I I think I was not down on him but I wasn't taking them last year I think I priced him right at his ADP what was that like five four or something like that you know but he's a year older and as we've discussed on this podcast I'm I am an ageist I am worried about the wear and tear I know he's done some things made some adjustments and all that but again I go back to that game in week 17 last year I was right Hayden McCaffrey to a championship to win 30 grand in the FFPC. But he got hurt, as we know.

But I will say this, I did not think he looked right the whole game. So something was awry. Yeah, he was great in the playoffs, but he had three weeks to rest. So my fear would be my luck. And I do believe I have kind of bad luck, which has always been the case. And I've had to kind of offset that. I think that's one of the reasons why I'm like you know what I don't have general luck it's one of the reasons I've become better and better over the decades because I do have this

bad luck but I'm like between my luck I'm not taking an older guy because he'll fall off a cliff and then I'll hate myself so I was not going to take him I thought captain would take lamb and then I was most likely going to go with a why with a running back probably going to go Breece Hall over Bijon, although that was really, really close. So I'm not going to say I was disappointed. I was a little surprised against Cid Lamb there too, but ultimately I went there because I do have him as my number one overall player. Not that I followed my rankings like exactly, but I'm pretty damn close. Obviously, they're my rankings. Seven wide receivers went in the first round of this 12 team PPR draft. And as we transition more

home leagues and away from best ball. And I know that's what everybody who's listening to this podcast right now, you're worried about your home league against all your buddies or coworkers, whatever it is. And that we always start to see John that shift from the wide receiver drunk rooms to running back start creeping more and more into the first round. So in this first round, we did see five running backs go off the board. McCaffrey went number one, Brees Hall, who you mentioned potentially at two. He went at the one five.

Bijon went one seven and then the first round ended with Jemar Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor. So no Sequin sneaking in there. But, you know, the, what do you coin them? The fantastic four, the fabulous four, your guys, a flawless four, which is a guaranteed curse, but I can't help it. And that's not McCaffrey. I do think that's a pretty strong trend this year from what I've seen. But I also understand that I've been talking about these.

flawless four running backs on serious xm all year and this is all listeners so i was not surprised to see for example jonathan taylor go in the first round because while he he said a little bit of a speed bump i would still call him pretty damn flawless pretty damn good and really locked into a large role so not a huge surprise i do think that the running backs are getting a little more love And maybe also because of what we just talked about before we started, like, man, once you get past tier one, maybe you can go to tier two, if that includes like Barkley, you know, and a couple of others. But man, it falls off a clip.

So unlike last year, I am more inclined than usual to get a running back in round one. More inclined than I've usually been. I wouldn't say I was, I'm inclined as I was 30 years ago, but that was a stone age when dudes were required contractually to go running back, running back to open up drafts. Only one person in this draft did start running back, running back, and that was from the 11 hole. When we come back on the other side, I want to talk about his strategy and how it might be really viable for all of our listeners who are picking at the back half. Don't go anywhere. It's the Fantasy Points podcast. At Capital One, we're more than just a credit card company.

We're people just like you who believe in the power of yes. Yes to new opportunities. Yes to second chances. Yes to a fresh start. That's why we've helped over four million Canadians get access to a credit card. Because at Capital One, we say yes, so you don't have to hear another no. What will you do with your yes? Get the yes you've been waiting for at Capital One.ca.ca.

Yes. Terms and conditions apply. All right. Welcome back, guys. Brian Drake, the guru John Hansen. We're talking about his Philly live draft that the guru competed in last weekend. He had the one two in the draft. I wanted to pick your brain about what the guy at 11 did. And he took Jemir Gibbs at the 111, came back in the second round with Sequin Barclay.

And you just mentioned to me how it kind of falls off a cliff after this first tier of running backs. So he now has Gibbs and Barkley. He's kind of good for a while. You can forget about running back forever. He's locked in with two guys you would assume. And when you draft, you want to assume you're right. He drafted two guys who should be top five, hopefully running backs. Is that a viable strategy for folks at the end of the first round because Gibbs, Taylor, Barkley are all there? Because once you start getting into the Pachecos and Cameras and then even farther down the board, Ken Walker. of the world. It gets dicey, John.

Yeah. I mean, look, many passed to a championship. I'm certainly not going to rail against going, running back, running back, especially since they're a couple of versatile guys, although Barclay, you know, not exactly a picture of health with durability.

What I would have done is probably, you know, more about the tip I'm going to give. So if I'm picking here in this round, you know, the first thing I'm going to do is try and figure out, okay, what do I think the best option for me will be with my second pick at all the positions? And if I did that, and let's say, you know, I'm looking at all these guys,

I probably would have surmised that, you know, a Berkeley or even a Gibbs would fall to me in round two. So I probably would have looked at like A.J. Brown in round one. So whenever I'm struggling to make a move in round one, it's usually about, okay, I don't know which position do I hit here. Is it a wide out or a running back? I mean, I simply look at and try and figure my best option in round two and then react accordingly. So in this regard, the best pick was Barkley. Like that's a good second round pick. So I probably would have opened AJ Brown to get that balance and to get that alpha dog wide out.

That's interesting. and we'll see how it plays out in home leagues across America. Only one person, and it's our pal, Paul Kelly. Real quick, Brian, real quick. I mean, we could argue that the receiving core in that team, to my point, is not that great. Nico Collins and Malik neighbors, Deonté Johnson, Curtis, Samuel, Rashad Bateman. That could be a suspect group. This is the guy drafting from the 11 hole.

And the reason that his receiver core also looks kind of a suspect and all things on the table here, my home league, the biggest league I care about, John, I have the 11th pick. So I've done a mock draft from the 11th spot a thousand times already. So I know exactly what this guy was going through. His issue is in the fifth and sixth, he went back to back with a onesie position. He went Lamar Jackson and turd Ferguson from the Cowboys. So instead of going receiver there, that's where he plugged in his quarterback and his tight end. So, I mean, he could have taken, instead of taking Lamar Jackson, he had receivers like,

Diggs, Higgins, Keenan Allen, Godwin, McLaurin. Those guys were all available for him instead of taking Lamar. And instead of Ferguson, you know, he could have gone, like I mentioned, Alan, Godwin, McLaren. Or if you even wanted another running back and taking Najee Harris, somebody like that. But that's what happens at the end. If you start picking your quarterback and tight end, it gets shaky at your wide receiver position, especially when you start running back, running back. Yeah, yeah, I've always said that.

like your best chance to form the best starting lineup, simply put, is to wait a little, at least on quarterback and tight end. He did wait a little, but he also took those two positions within the first six rounds, which is a little early. So that's why he paid a price. That's why, you know, I think maybe a more optimal route would have been getting Higgins and then coming back. and, you know, maybe, okay, you want a quarterback, get Burrow or love. I think that would have been a little bit more efficient, would have made the roster,

the starting lineup look a little bit better. Yeah, I'm just looking here. He went with Jake Ferguson, and you could argue that Jake Ferguson is sort of the end of a tier for tight ends. And if you want to wait just a little bit longer, there wasn't another tight end that went for, geez, damn near three rounds, John, where, you know, David and Joku came off the board. Dallas Goddard, nobody's draft, and he went in the 11th round. Dalton Schultz went in the 11th round as well.

It's a drop off for sure, though. Yeah. Dalton Schultz finished 27 points overall behind Ferguson last year in two less games. At a point per game basis, Ferguson and Dalton Schultz were separated by 0.4 points per game. And they went multiple rounds apart. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I will say for the record, I did want Ferguson badly in this. draft, that was not in the card.

So I had to, you know, I did some things at tight end that are, it's fine. I mean, I end up getting three of them. One of them was, as the guys currently hurt, but it took a shot there. But yeah, I mean, look, again, many passed with championship. We don't have the answers to the test. We're just trying to be as efficient as possible. And I think we just isolated a couple instances or examples in which this person could have been a little bit more efficient.

Paul Kelly started receiver, receiver, receiver, only guy in the league to do so. He took Pooka Nakua, Drake London, and Michael Pittman. So you might ask, well, what's he have it running back? I think he's, he's okay. It's Joe Mixin and David Montgomery, Kittles his tight end, who he took in the fifth. He waited forever at quarterback, and he got two at the 11th. So for a guy who started receiver, receiver, receiver, John, how do you think our boy Paul Kelly made out? Oh, pretty damn well.

you know, Mixon's getting up there, obviously a little word about that, but he's going to be their main guy, three down back. Montgomery is boring but safe and steady, double-digit touchdowns. I think Ben Johnson has made it clear that he's going to hand the ball off to one guy when they're on top of the goal. Maybe Jamir Gibbs gets a little bit more involved there. I know he got more involved running the rock, but if it's first in gold to one, I think we could put money on Dave Montgomery being back there.

Then he gets Jonathan Brooks, which is a, sexy upside guy, not too shabby. You know, Zach Charbonnet is probably not the greatest fourth running back, but he's got certainly a solid pedigree, and he's a Ken Walker injury away from, you know, being the guy. And he'll produce with volume. That's the problem with Zach Charbonnet at this point, from what I've seen this thus far, dude needs volume. And he's probably not good enough to get Ken Walker off the field to really get that

volume. So he does need Walker to be hurt. Yeah, you're not wrong about that. Let's take a peek at your draft because that's what we're talking about here. In the second round, right before you pick, there is a couple of running backs that go off the board. Again, you started with CD Lam. So I don't know if you're thinking running back, but Pacheco goes and Kyron Williams goes. Trust me, we got some Kyron Williams talk in the second half of this podcast.

So you're on the clock. The best available players on the board, you know, there's guys like Waddle. There's your boy Rashad White. there's James Cook, DJ Moore. You ended up pulling the trigger on Devante Adams. What did you see in Devonte? Why did you choose him over those other guys? Yeah, Waddle was very, very tempting.

But as we know, we have the first read target share, FantasyPoints.com, who was the king? Adams, right? He was top three. I know that. I could have sworn he was the number one guy. But that was a lot of it. I know not to contradict myself, you know, being an aegis, but that's especially prevalent at running

back, of course, but I am also an agis at wide receiver. However, you know, not to be stupid about it, but it's kind of true. Like, I made up a new rule. All right. I'm making an exception. I'll take you at wide out early, even though you're 30 or older if you're Canton bound. I mean, because you look at Tyree Kill, Mike Evans, Devante Adams, they're probably all going to make it. I mean, I think Tyreek, you know, another year, he's probably another two year or too big. He's got to be in.

And Devante is right on track there. You know, I don't say any slow down with him, by the way. He was never a burner to begin with. He was always about strength, physicality, great route running, you know, all that, the nuances and all that. So I understand the quarterback position. not ideal but it wasn't last year and i didn't like him last year you can argue oh you were right

not really i mean he was more impactful than not i know he had some rough games there but ultimately i'm like you know this guy's a canton bound still playing at a high level and he's going to dominate the target so i i didn't want to open wide receiver wide receiver but i i went into bpa mode there i i knew uh i'd get in a running back on the way back of course Yeah, when you look at who may have been available, Rashad White goes just before you pick on the turn. So Kaplan starts McCaffrey, then he takes Waddle after you take Adams, and then he wants to get another running back.

He gets into that business with your guy Rashad White. So you're on the clock here at 3-2. You already have two wide receivers. And looking at the running backs on the board, there's A. Chang, Josh Jacobs, Ken Walker, Kamara so it's starting to get dark a little early and I listen to this draft and you admittedly said hey I'm going to reach a little bit here and you took James Cook of the Buffalo Bills yeah sometimes you got to go get your guy and and especially when you have what 20 20 20 odd picks before you

pick again so you know you it's it's running back get that running back or go home time basically and I wouldn't call him an ideal anchor running back. But on the other hand, you know, I mean, I do have James Cook. I'll call it up right now with a lot of touches. You know, I mean, he's, he's their guy. So I thought he showed well under Joe Brady. I had all kinds of data points on it that I don't have the damn file in front of me, I don't think. But with Joe Brady, very good.

very good with Joe Brady was James Cook. And I do like Ray Davis, the rookie, but hey, he's a rookie and all that. And we'll see who else is on the roster here. I know they still have Ty Johnson, but hey, James Cook, 237 carries and 44 grabs. I mean, we're just under 280 touches. You know, how much, what else do we want from this guy? Like, 28300 is a pretty big number these days. He's 25 years old.

You know, he's a little older, honestly. He's 24, but he'll be 25 in September. A little older for a third year player, but not a ton of tread on those tires, as we know. In Georgia, they use moldable backs. He only had 100 plus carries once in Georgia. So he's got fresh legs, believe me. I'd say he's probably the equivalent of an average 22-year-old,

yet now with two years of experience, including last year being the guy. And, you know, they had some defections, Latavius Murray. He was annoying last year, but he was involved. So, you know, I think that Mr. Cook is going to get the ball plenty. Let's see. I don't have him with many more touches than last year, but it's still a real nice number here.

Yeah, 260. And that's somewhat conservative. And that's baking in a game missed there. It's somewhat conservative. have him at RB 13. So not the greatest RB1, but when you open up wide receiver, wide receiver, you're going to have a little bit of a hole. But I think I address running back by the way, pretty well later on in the draft. That's the thing about running back this year. Like, yeah, on one hand, I do want to get that number one anchor. It'd be nice. But I'm not married to

it because the depth is throughout the draft, as you'll see, with my draft. Yeah. And, you know, as we go on in the summer and training camps open up, we're going to learn more about these running back situations. That's a tough part now when you're doing mock drafts. You're getting down to the end and you're like, I don't know, you know, you're looking at Tyrone Tracy and, you know, Tank Biggs being, like, I don't know if these guys are going to be second string, third string, are they going to have a role?

Hopefully we find out more about that. Stick with us. When we come back on the other side, a quarterback run happens in the next round. Does Guru get sucked up in it? It's the Fantasy Points podcast. All right, everybody, welcome back in. Guru and I are breaking down his Philly Live draft.

So far, C.D. Lamb, Devante Adams, James Cook. We're in round four. And this is why I love this Philly draft, John. It is a home league. We saw only one tight end go in the first four rounds. That was Kelsey in the second, which should prove to everybody out there, don't draft the tight end early this year. And then we get into the fourth round.

here come the quarterbacks. Mahomes goes at 4-8. Just before you is Josh Allen. You're on the clock. You already have two receivers and a running back. If Allen was sitting there waiting for you, because you already have Cook, you could have had kind of this buffalo-centric stack

and own their whole offense. Would you have taken Josh Allen in the third round? I mean, I would have considered it. Probably not, though. I don't feel warm and fuzzy about Josh. Allen right now I don't feel warm and fuzzy about Jail and Hertz even though these guys are absolute juggernauts obviously but especially Allen I mean hello he did just lose defan Diggs and cape davis I know he's Superman but as we've said I know uh there's a lot of

Josh Allen hate out there and I actually liked him I talked about my interview with him at the combine by his combine over and over again like the most eager beaver if you will that I've ever encountered like and he was right but he was being nitpoked and prodded and nitpicked but those doing the nitpicking also had a point you know like just just a wild stallion you know just dripping with raw talent but you know a little all over the place and i think you could argue he's been that way in the NFL you know you watch just the highlights you're like oh this guy's the most talented quarterback to ever play which in some ways he is but miss and third throws guys are open not pulling the trigger maybe not seeing the field a little too reliant on second

react i mean there are some issues there they're going to be run centric under brady i think more so as they break in this new receiving core it's a very underwhelming receiving core so you know i probably would have considered it but i would not have done it and then what hurts i just i don't know you're an eagle guy uh as i've said a million million times i was around him at the combine I just kind of observed him. And I was like, wow, I couldn't believe how mature he was. And I was like, man, this guy, I'll go to battle with this guy all day long. And that's totally played out.

I think it's getting a little out of control now with jail. I could be wrong. Could be wrong. But I just get the sense that, I don't know, this function with the coaching staff last year was really weird in the offense. We'll see here. I do have some confidence in Kellynne Moore. I didn't have a lot of confidence in Siriani.

But the other thing with Hertz is too, we are a little bit worried about durability in general with all the hits that he takes. You know, he did it last year, but the previous two years, what happened in the fantasy playoffs with Jalen Hertz? Yeah. It was hobbit. It gets Hurts and he doesn't do anything. You know, two years ago, he had Gardner Minshue in there playing for him. Exactly. So, no, I wouldn't have.

Honestly, I probably would have, not that I would have taken Mahomes over him, but I like Mahomes more than Hertz and Allen. And granted, some of that is because Mahomes is coming off the board typically after them, you know, maybe by a round. But, of course, this is a, you know, basically a guru in the morning draft. And they've been hearing me saying, I love Mahomes. And, of course, he was the first quarterback off the board, which, by the way, makes these drafts a little difficult for me because not only does everyone know my thoughts, they kind of agree with me and they take my guys left and right. It's difficult to draft and host at the same time. There's no question about that. And it doesn't help that everybody knows your picks, John.

So right. And I was hosting here, not not lead hosting with Paul and Adam, but I was I was on the air while drafting. Did Mr. C was he a little more engaged in the radio? Oh yeah. I remember last year he were like, Kaplan, we're doing a radio show here. You got to give me something. He's just like married to the well maybe maybe maybe yeah, I think he was. But I mean, just so huge. You have a third man in the booth when you're drafting life. I mean, it makes the world a difference. Paul's the best. Paul Kelly is an absolute pro. when it comes to radio. I'm a big fan, somebody I look up to in the industry for sure. So, well, let's get around to the guy you did pick because you didn't go quarterback. You went George Pickens at 4-11, wide receiver from the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Artie Smith is going to come in. Gone is Deontay Johnson. It looks to be a more ground and pound offense, but you know, you got Russell Wilson. He specializes in throwing the deep ball. Pickens, big, fast, strong guy. They got to throw to somebody out there in Pittsburgh. And he kind of stands out is the only game in town at this point, John. No question about it. And, you know, they shipped off Deontay Johnson. And for this year, at least, they're kind of all in on Georgie Pickett's. Now, I do like Roman Wilson. We'll see about him. Great kid, by the way. Talk with him briefly at the Combine.

But, yeah, let's be honest. It's going to be all George Pickett's. I think his target share will be about 25%. I know that they're going to be run heavy. But at that rate, we're probably looking at a hundred percent. 120 targets. My very conservative projection for him is 70 grabs, 1045 and six touchdowns. That's about Yvesiever 19. That's considerably higher. But I don't think everyone realizes like, you see that projection.

Like, oh, wow, that's bold. I'm like, uh, he literally did that last year, basically, basically almost. Um, he had more yards. on fewer catches and led the NFL with 18.1 yards per reception. So I don't think people realize exactly how good he was, unless you're really looking into it. But for those of us who have been, you know, not dialed in, yeah, dude, again, led the NFL with 18.1 yards of reception

and put up a real solid 1140 with five tutties on 63 grabs on only 106 targets. So, you know, I'm projecting, at the very least another 20 targets. So there's another technically 12 grabs, which you put them well over 70, and then we might get over 1,200 yards. So I think he really stands out. It's a great wide receiver three,

wide receipts three pick here in this round. So he's your third receiver, Lamb Adams Pickins, is your wide receiver group. Cook is your one running back. And now as we go into the, fifth round, we're in the midst of a tight end run. So all you guys and gales listening, this is about maybe the time in your home leagues you could start seeing these guys come off

the board. What do I mean by a run? To start the fourth round, Trey McBride went, and then Kincaid and Leporta went in the middle rounds. It comes past you and then two more tight ends come off the board in Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, the round we see finish out with Evan Ingram and George Kittle. So seven tight ends in this two round period. Now, you didn't go tight end here. You ended up going Ramandre Stevenson to get your second back. Looking at this tight end run, do you wish you would have gotten on it or because you only had the one running back? You're like, I got to get in this running back business. Well, honestly, I probably do wish I got in the tight end business because as I said, a moment ago, your best chance to

form the best starting lineup, uh, is to hold off on tight end and quarterback. And that's kind of what I did, but, and I, I, I, I like my quarterback, which we'll get to with the next pick. I thought that was a pretty good value. But yeah, in, in retrospect, I probably would have preferred, uh, the sexiness of a pits or, uh, you know, maybe McBride if he had fallen, uh, but he went like 10 picks in front of me. But yeah, I mean, I like the team. I though and here's why by the way, just thinking through this, I do like to mix it up and diversify the portfolio because when I opened Lamb,

surprisingly, I didn't think he'd be there too, honestly, came back and hey, Devante Adams was the best pick. So what did I say earlier? I said oftentimes I try to look at who's my pick. in round one, in round two. If I don't know who I'm taking in round one, I look to see who my best option would likely be in round two. Well, it turns out that that, in my opinion, was Devante Adams.

So honestly, maybe I should have gone Bijon or Brise for an optimal lineup here. But because I opened wide receiver wide receiver and didn't hit running back very hard, I felt a very, very pressing need to get Ramandre right there. Yeah, look at Remandre. It was a really up and down season for Stevenson on a team that, let's be honest, they were just really bad. They had no quarterback. The line was shaky. But for fantasy, when he was in the lineup, which was only really through week 12 and then, you know, week 13, he didn't do anything for you and gets hurt.

He had a bunch of 20-point games. He was double digits most weeks. And then, you know, Ezekiel Elliott comes in, you know, Ramandre kind of takes a seat. but if now we have stability at the quarterback position with Brissette, with Drake May, new coaching staff, there's nothing around him, John. It's Ramandre and a bunch of young guys. Ramandre's got to be the focal point of this offense. Yeah, 100%. And, you know, as I've said here, I'm looking to get him right three years in a row because I loved him going into 2022.

Going into last year, I was worried. I thought he wore down. I was a little worried about the team. I actually thought that Zeke, I thought, was a threat. Because what are they doing with Zeke? Why? What is he good at at this point? Good on short yardage, short touchdowns, good and pass pro, not a bad outlet receiver.

And that did kind of play out. So I could argue that Ramandre's competition in the backfield got worse this year. year with Zeke gone. And yes, Antonio Gibson is going to be the primary pass catching back that are paying him. But I certainly think Romandre will get his 40, 50 grabs and a 300 plus touch role. And, you know, that's a good point about general continuity, not continuity, but stability. The quarterback situation is better than last year. The coaching situation is way better than last year. I liked of mac jones coming out and i was right for a year until those ding-dongs ruined him uh well for now i mean they may have permanently ruined him not that he was ever going to be unbelievable

but there was no reason why mac jones couldn't be kirk cousins for god's sakes maybe a little lesser kirk cousins uh we'll see about that but the situation this year's way way better we'll see if gerard mayo has got like a domico ryan's like charisma and impact i doubt it but i think anything's, I hate to say it, but anything's an upgrade over the mumbler, Belichick, because they're terrible on offense. They did a horrible job the last two years offensively. So again, shocking to say, but get that Belichick guy out of here and our offense is going to be better. Yeah.

And you want to talk about excitement and the opposite of mumbling through an NFL season. And Mr. excitement is Anthony Richardson. Anthony Richardson played in, let's see, he played in four games last year. He scored 20.9, 17, 29 points. Then he got hurt in the last week. But I mean, John, you look at the numbers here. You know, he's a kid who they put in the lineup.

You know, he's not an accomplished thrower yet. Maybe this offseason gets him there. But with him, it's all about the legs. The guy had four rushing touchdowns in three and a half games. But the question is, can he stay? on the field and if he does i mean this kid literally has overall qb one upside john and you got him in the sixth round yeah not bad uh to recap where i was last year on richardson starting the pre-draft process i went on serious x-em i'm like superstar vibe you know this is before he even tested

just looking into him and i was around him at the combine i'm like superstar vibe test through the roof but then you know the Colts take him and I thought even though I knew he was just inexperienced maybe not raw in experience maybe not raw I mean it was doing some progression reading things like that you know certainly not there yet but not completely uh wild uh stallion you know kind of like a Josh Allen but um I actually thought going in the season that they should sit him for just a month is that so much to ask you know, let him get a game or two or three or four under his belt behind Gardner, Minchu, get a feel for things.

I was wrong, but was I? Because maybe if they were a little more patient, he wouldn't have been as inclined to run. And maybe he would have been a little bit more comfortable. Who knows? But the bottom line is all parties involved, I'm sure, learned some lessons. He did get that year under his belt, basically. I mean, he'd been studying the offense now. for what 14 months and speaking to that i thought shame stuyken and jim bob cooter did an unbelievable

job managing him that's one of the reasons why he did so well he wasn't asked to do too much obviously i'm sure design runs were a part of it but the other part of it is now the receiving core is improved dramatically we get a full year of jonathan taylor which is absolutely massive so i think i have some confidence that they'll have more of a complete offense They should have a good running game. They have a good O line. It's top 10. I wasn't a big A.D. Mitchell guy, but they did need juice.

No question about it. He's got that. I like Josh Downs in the slot. Pittman has always been my guy. And we'll see again about Jolani Woods. If he can step up, I'm not counting on anyone else. Although I do like Will Mallory. So I think between Jolani Woods and Will Mallory,

they may actually get, you know, a decent number of impactful plays. from the tight-end position. And if they stay relatively healthy, I think that every piece is in place for a nice, noticeable second-year leap for the entire offense under Stuyken. All right, so Guru now has his quarterback with Anthony Richardson.

All right, we're in the seventh round here and just kind of speed things along because we're seven rounds into a draft. We'll just kind of highlight some of these players here. You might be in BPA mode here. You've got your starters. Maybe you're trying to find flex, upside bench depth.

Your next three picks, you go Tony Pollard, Christian Watson, and Blake Corum. Pollard, who two years ago was a league winner, essentially, did nothing last year, fell on his face in a full-time role in Dallas. Watson will see if you can get the hamstrings right. There's always that crazy story about, oh, one hamstrings 20% larger than the other. Who knows? But he's the guy that commands the football. And Blake Corum, who may be more talented than Kyron Williams in the ninth round is the ultimate lottery ticket.

Because if he ever takes over that role, just put your name. on the trophy right now. So tell me about these three guys. Pollard Watson Corum, seventh, eighth and ninth round. Yeah, it was a little bummed out. I mean, look, I made the pick of Pollard, but I don't know why I thought maybe I could get my guy, Tage Spears, but that was a pipe dream, because I love Spears. Really, man, I did I love that kid. Talk with him at the combine. He was awesome in the Senior Bowl, and he's good. I mean, there's one we got right. The, the, the, ball test worked and the vibes and all that. That said, you know, I do believe Pollard gets a slight edge in receptions. I mean, he is a former college receiver. They are paying him a decent amount of

money here. So I think it's like a 55-45 thing. And, you know, I've got to go with the 55 guy. I think that's Pollard. Somewhat regretful, though. I didn't get my guy, Taj. Then Watson, I'm all in on at this ADP. 11th pick of round 8, forget about it. That's a league winning pick, fourth receiver. I know there's only one ball, but as you mentioned, due to the body type, due to the incredible athletic ability.

Like, he is insane. Like, he might be a top seven athlete at receiver in the NFL. All in on that, on the chance that it hits. I mean, this is what wakes me up in the morning. You know, I mean, I could have taken a, see, a, a, DeAndre Hopkins around this pick. No, no. Might as well just end it at that point. Like, why would I take a guy in his last year or two?

Maybe he catches another 79 balls and comes through, but on the chance that he doesn't, I would, again, hate myself so much that I go for upside at this point. And I thought that was a great pick. Kaplan did comment. He thought it was a pick of the draft up into that. point. So Corum, you know, he's, oh yeah, Blake Corum real too. I forgot about him. Yeah, that was, I mean, that, look at the other running backs who went off the board. Zeke, Nick Chubb, Echler, they're kind of dart throwy at this point. Probably a little bit of an

overpay. But I am a little behind a running back. I do think Blake Corum is more talented than Kyron Williams. I don't think he's going to steal the man's job. But I do think if Kyron wears down again that I could see them giving more and more opportunities to Blake Corum. And at some point, it might be evident that, oh, by the way, this guy, Blake Corum is better than Carron Williams. So it's possible that he usurps Carin. Most likely Caron will need to get hurt, but that's what he does. He got hurt the first two years in the NFL. And just kind of wrap up this draft before we get into your guru versus ADP talk. You end up pulling the trigger on a couple of tight ends. You take Hawkinson, who

again is injured in the 10th round at the end. You come right back. Your next pick, you take Luke Musgrave, who was really good for the Packers last year. I remember starting Luke in a bunch of spots. He's kind of a forgotten man this year. Nobody's really hyped up on Musgrave. But in that offense, you said it, only one ball. But I think he can get you through long enough until Hawkinson comes back.

And if he can't, you took Col Commet a few rounds after him in the 14th. Unfortunately, a little boring. But, you know, hey, Colcomat does participate. produce we'll see i mean justin fields did have an affinity for him look musgrave was definitely a shot in the dark trying to catch lightning in a bottle type of pick uh he is very talented i actually had him neck and neck with kinkade coming out i mean really really close and look kinkade's been better uh but it's not like musgrave has been a bum but they also did Tucker craft did a good job So, you know, it's a shot that I might regret.

But hey, it is the, what round, 11th round. I'm looking for upside and Cole Komet, as you mentioned there. If that doesn't pan out, that backup plan, I'll just have the boring cold commit. So not ideal. I did take three tight ends. But, you know, that's what happens when you hold off. If I make it through and have a solid record midseason and Hawkinson's back, now that's pretty good, right?

You can argue that's pretty damn good if he's back for the second half. Before we move on to the ADP talk, there's a lot of drafters who are going to be faced with the conundrum, John, of they're sitting in the middle part of their draft. They're probably, you know, 38 Miller Lights Deep, and they're looking at T.J. Hawkinson, Nick Chub on the board, guys who are injured who might miss half the season and who knows what they look like when they come back. And they're like, oh, man, I want to stick this guy on my bench. Maybe you don't even have an IR spot, but this guy's going to clog up the bench for half the year. What's your thoughts on drafting injured players? Yeah, I mean, it depends on the cost. I mean, Chubb here, I see here, you know, you get to some point where I'm not saying you're in DGAF mode, but, you know, let's be honest here.

This fantasy stuff is pretty damn hard. What percentage of 11th round picks suck or throwaway picks? Probably over 50%. Yeah, you're going to drop half these guys. Yeah. So let's see here. He went off the board. Shub went at 9-6.

Well, let's take a look at the rest of the team, too. So he goes, Eagle Ed. Yo, Eagle Ed! Oh, yeah. I love Eagle Ed. Well, he had a good draft. Yeah.

So after he took Amon Ra, like he's a little light at wide receiver. He goes, Amon Ra, skinny Batman, Devante Smith, Jordan Addison. He is, that's his weakness. But he gets, you know, he gets a couple of real bell cows in Derek Henry. James Connor gets a stud tight end gets a pretty damn good quarterback in Burrow Addison I loved last year I don't like as much but after that like he's got some he's got a

lot of sexy griffic players and now it's just a question of all right do I want for example in round eight Gus Edwards possibly the most boring pick on the board or take a shot with Trey Benson so he goes Benson because eagle ed's gruific then he comes back and again Austin Echler, who may have destroyed the evidence that he was tested for positive for Jarrettall and fell off a cliff last year. Maybe he hangs in there and puts out of the year. He is in D.C. It could be a watergate situation with that.

Who knows? Yeah, yeah. Or take a shot with a guy for the second half and chubb. And I was fine with that. You know, had he had a little bit of a shakeier draft maybe, I'd question a little bit more. but at this point, we're a hunter picks in. It's a pick that could really help you. Or if it doesn't work out, it's not going to kill you, basically.

Right. Like, is Austin Echler or, you know, Austin Echler is not moving. They're going to win you the league, you know. You know, he may not kill you, but is it going to help you? Who, Chubb? No, Echler. That's the other thing.

Is he going to help you? You hope so in that team, but. If Chubb's healthy, you know he's going to help you. Yeah. All right. So let's put a bowl. on the Philly Live draft. When we come back, I want to talk to you, John,

about some of your cheat sheet picks against Consensus ADP. We're going to see guys who guru is way, way lower on, and people are taking too early, according to John. Stick and stay right here. Appreciate you guys hanging with us.

Fantasy Points Podcast. When you're flying Emirates Business Class, enjoying a good night's rest in your lie flat seat. You'll see that your vacation isn't really over until your flight is over. Fly Emirates. Fly better. At Desjardin, we speak business. We speak startup funding and comprehensive game plans. We've mastered made-to-measure growth and expansion advice,

and we can talk your ear-off about transferring your business when the time comes. Because at Desjardin business, we speak the same language you do. Business. So join the more than 400,000 Canadian entrepreneurs. who already count on us and contact Desjardin today. We'd love to talk business. All right, everybody. Welcome back in.

Appreciate you guys rocking and rolling with us in the summertime. It's almost draft season, John. I can't believe it. I ordered my draft board today for my home league. That was about 50, 60 bucks. But I'm the commissioner, so I have to do these things. You know, it is what it is. But we got it ordered.

It'll be here. ready to party in late August. But when I'm on the clock every year, I don't bring a laptop. I don't do that nonsense, John. I print out the guru cheat sheet. I print it out and that's what I draft off. I'm just checking names off on the list. I got chicken wing grease on my finger.

There's pizza, pepperoni falling onto the sheet. It doesn't matter. That's what I'm here for. But I want to talk to you about players who you see as going against ADP, you're not as high on at all. Let's start things off. We already talked about them so we can kind of buzz through a lot of these guys. CMC he's one overall in ADP he's six in your rankings yeah by the way speaking of

pizza I did I did have a little trip to Martha's Vineyard this year and this week and it's a requirement in my family if you drive by New Haven Connecticut you're getting pizza just FYI my place sallies was too crowded though by the way I love this place sallies in New Haven I saw it so old about 10 years ago, had I known it was for sale, I may have bought it. Really? And you would have been Sally's, Johnny's gurus, would you've kept it the same? What would you have done?

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, Sally's all day, all day long. It was a good deal. I thought it was like the building, the name, everything. It's been there since like the 30s, but Google Sally's New Haven. You could see the pie there. But McCaffrey, again, it's, I'm, I'm, call me paranoid. if you'd like but when you have a guy this profile uh you know obviously a lot of mileage off the tires i'm paranoid and scared to death that it's going to fall off here

1300 he's got almost let's see here he's got 1800 touches uh in eight years it's kind of a big bigger number um and it's just to me it's just too risky uh with the age factor involved here um you know ladenian tomlinson by the way he kind of feel like he changed his opinion a little bit on on the age versus workload thing uh i think he's a little bit more inclined to look at the workload now but in mcalfrey's case not that it's a lot but he kind of has both things going against him here 28 years old with those basically 1,800 touches. Obviously a big time needle mover again, but I'm just scared. I'm just paranoid. And I whenever I'm paranoid, I lean on youth. So I'm going to go

with a younger guy with fewer miles off the tires. That is it. Somebody else at the running back position that you're not as high as ADP is Kyron Williams. He has a second round ADP around 15, which actually if you look at what he did last year, it's interesting that he's not a first round pick. Maybe people are really scared off by Blake Corum. You've got them all the way down at 29. And now you look at what he did last year. He owned this backfield.

I mean, he was touching the ball some games over 20 times. And he had a really nice stretch where he was putting up, you know, double digits 20 plus a week in fantasy football PPR leagues. But only played in 12 games, John. They add Blake Corum. you so much lower on Kyron than consensus. Well, as I've said a million times, and again, I'm not trying to be a hater here, but Kyron Williams was not impressive at all in college.

He was okay. He was kind of a volume guy in the running and the passing game, did not test very well at the combine, then had a very underwhelming rookie season in which he had. injury issues and all kinds of issues. There was a moment there where he was getting, looked like he was going to get a real opportunity, but the guy got 44 touches in 10 games. And then this time last year,

and again, I'm not to be a hater, but let's not forget, as I've said a million times, but I'll say it again, this time last year, I know Cam Acres was there, but it's not like Cam Acres was like a superstar,

not Todd Gurley. This time last year, We were taking Kyron Williams at 200 overall. Again, I know Cam Acres was there, but I don't think anyone was that confident in Cam Acres, like totally. Yet here we were not drafting the backup until the 19th round. So you mean to tell me and I know what he did last year, but a year later we're going to take him.

And that was really saying this before the Blake Quorum pick because he was going off the board at 10. And I'm like, we really taking the guy we were taking at 200 last year. attend this year when a lot of what he did was volume base and yeah sure he could get the volume again but it could also result in an injury as it did last year oh and by the way the rams last year had absolute skank at running back behind him absolute skank royce freeman signed off the couch darrell henderson signed off the couch ronnie rivers perennially on the couch And then can't only for absolute ass. Zach Evans got nine carry.

Blake Corum is a national champion and a bell cow who's more talented than Carmen Williams. Again, I'm not even projecting Corum to fully steal the job. But it's enough of a problem and a concern that, oh, I'm not taking Karen Williams in the second round. All right.

We're rolling on here. Guru versus ADP. And John, this name is just. I'm getting angry now. This is like a battle. Well, you know what? I get angry when I hear about Devon A-chan and his ADP. I just simply can't take this kid in the second round. His ADP, you know, 23. I've seen it even way higher than that.

You've got him down at 34. I know Kaplan routinely talks about how he's a guy with a long injury history back at Texas A&M. Got banged up a couple of times last season. We hear about the efficiency numbers and it can't be repeated. But there's a reason, John, people say that is because it probably can't. I mean, you're not going to have 51 point games again where you run for 203 and, you know, four touchdowns or whatever had that day. Not catching anyone by surprise like you did last year. Right. So they've had a whole offseason to study the film. They did draft jail and we're right.

I understand that Rehim Mostard is a year older. We'll see if Savon Ahmed, not that I'm worried about him, but, you know, they do have other. bodies here and and i say bodies but in a lot of ways the shanahan people that they kind of use them as as bodies it's like oh uh let's he washed up put him in a body bag give me the next body over here you know what i mean like so they'll roll with other people um i thought last year when we opened the season i'm like oh geez i thought he was a 10 touch a game guy you know like guess i was wrong and then he got hurt like the next week and then we had another injury so it's like I was wrong to believe that that's all he was because they tried to make him a lot more.

But was I because the year was a kind of an injury mess here. There was a couple of weeks where, yeah, he played, but you couldn't trust him, by the way, volatile. But one of my rules at running back in general, I don't want to rely too much on volume. But on the other hand, I hate relying on big plays. That's one of the reasons why I was never Sequan Barkley guy. Like, I mean, yeah, if he gets 12. 29 touches they'll come through no matter what.

But there'll be some games where he gets 20 touches, doesn't rip off a long run and gets, you know, 18 carries for 56 and catches two balls for 12 and doesn't score. And it's like, eh, you know, he's got some issues there at Sakewon. You know, talented guy, obviously, but big play dependent in the running game.

Because he's not that great of a runner, by the way. He's a bouncer still. I don't think he has a good vision, honestly. I thought he was small coming out at A&M. I remember everyone's like, oh, you know, he's going to be between the tackles guy. I looked like, no, he's not. I mean, he is kind of what he is. He's a gadget guy.

There's a reason they drafted Jalen Wright. So he's going to take over from Mostert next year. And it's kind of this thunder and lightning team. Josh Jacobs used to have thunder and lightning. He's now gone from Vegas. He's in Green Bay in a really good offense behind a solid offensive line, John. The ADP has Josh Jacobs at 25. You got him all the way down at 39 overall.

there were times last year done he looked a little cooked i'm not going to lie far from the you know two years ago when he was a running back one yeah and that's uh that is part of the equation i mean i'm not that down on him but it's about around which is important for a running back and it's certainly worth looking at two and exploring uh it's one of those it's a tough it's a tougher call because you know he's had a pretty distinguished career up until this point but not without some speed bumps and injury concerns. You know, it just didn't really connect with me when it went down. By the way, it kind of is a one-year deal.

So they're not paying them a ton of money. It's kind of a one-year deal. They did re-sign to A.J. Dillon, which shocked me. Now, he may not make the team. And then Marshawn Lloyd, I actually think people are getting a little gaga over and a little crazy. in terms of like thinking he'll have standalone value. But I do like Marshawn Lloyd. And I do think he is a great receiver.

So I could easily see him making Josh Jacobs, you know, something of an afterthought in the passing game, as he has been at times in the career. But most importantly, I just, I know Matt LaFleur has been a running game guy, but I'm just looking at the team and how things played out last year. look they didn't have a running game last year until Aaron Jones came back I don't think Josh Jacobs can look as good as Aaron Jones looked down the stretch so I think they'll be kind of a passing team I mean that's the strength of the team in terms of their receiving core and Jordan Love is shown to be a guy when they score they usually score via the forward pass so I'm not sure we can count on Jacobs for like 9 10 12 touchdowns I don't know we can count on for more than 30 grabs I don't know if we can count on them at all because I'm not sure we can count on Jacobs for like 9 10 12 touchdowns I don't know if we can count on them at all because I'm not sure we can count on them at all because I'm of all the bad data points we have from him.

I know it was weird with Josh McDaniels and all that dysfunction, but the year before, it's like, oh, he shocked everybody. Oh, yeah, in a contract year. So now he's two years older. So it's still a little bit of a contract year, but I guess color me skeptical overall on Josh Jacobs. You're really skeptical on Sam Leporta as we switch over to tight end. You've got him 20 spots past ADP all the way down at 41.

The real thing here with Leporta, hey, he's a good player on a good team. I'm not taking anything away from him. But let's call a spade of spade. The guy scored 10 touchdowns last year. Is that going to happen again in 2024? I don't know, probably not. You know, teams are going to key in on them. James and Williams maybe ascends takes that next step, takes a couple targets away for him.

But why are you 20 spots below ADP on Sammy Leporta? Well, the number one thing, as anyone knows who really looks into it is my man was a little touchdown the pen is the wrong word but I mean the guy had like an 8% touchdown rate so 8% of the time you threw him a ball he scored I'm not sure we can replicate that due to things that you said but here's the thing it's it's not really him it's the cost like we are taking him precisely where Travis Kelsey was going like two years ago maybe three maybe three you know I mean, it took Kelsey a half a decade to get this kind of love, yet here we are handing out to Samuel Leporta at 21.

Yeah, no question. Sam Leporta, you're drafting Sam Leporter right now at his ceiling. You know, it's like, how much better can he get? And you're paying for it. If he has a down season, you're going to be like, oh, my God, I wish I would have waited, you know, two rounds and just drafted Evan Ingram who's going to catch 20 more balls. I mean, I've got him as a mid fourth round pick. That's precisely where he should be going based on a stellar rookie campaign.

Yeah. I can't take Sam Laporte in the second round, not with any kind of build. I never like taking Kelsey in the second round when he was setting the world on fire. It just creates a weird build when you're trying to, you know, win a home league. But again, like you said, a lot of paths to win a championship. One guy who helped folks win a lot of championships last year, John, was Nico Collins. You were in on him. I remember slapping the sticker on the board of my home league. This is like, I tweeted out the draft board earlier today from last year.

It was probably like the 11th round that I go, sleeper, wide receiver of the year. Boom. Nico Collins, absolutely loved it. He was just shot out of a cannon, really connected down there in Houston with C.J. Stroud. But now, John, I think people got tape on them. They added Steph Diggs. You still have, Tank Dell, if he's healthy out there.

Like, I just can't buy into Nico. Collins 28th overall you got them all the way down at 43 not to be completely basic with it but you know one of my rules as I've seen things unfold over the last 30 years professionally I guess in this business and I guess hell more than that 35 years 37 years whatever playing fantasy if it seems too good to be true it probably is and the use in Texans like we had no expectations last year Strau was incredible granted a little fluky i mean if you broke down every damn play i don't think it was as good as it appeared and now you you add stephan digs you get tank dell back obviously you know everything else

you're bringing in a joe mix and it's like oh my they're loaded like what could go wrong well something i believe will uh probably stroud takes a small step back probably put puts up good numbers because he's proven already that he's good, but maybe a little step back. And then, of course, the target share for Nico has got to fall. If you get a full season at a tank Dell and Steph digs, you get 12 to 14 games each from those two guys, then the target chair absolutely has to fall.

So, you know, shout out to Nico for balling out. He really did unbelievable job last year. And they did a great job Bobby Sloat getting him the ball. even when everyone knew it was coming, which I'm sure we can replicate that. But still, not that I'm down on the Texans, it's just a little too good to be true for me.

And of course, the target share numbers and the ADP don't really line up. You know what I mean? Like, you can't have three top 40 receivers or whatever. Exactly. You know,

you just can't. I heard Tank Dell actually talking this week. He was interviewed by reporters at camp, and they asked him about all the receivers in camp. He mentioned, oh, well, you know, it's just going to kind of be a hot hand situation. One week it's going to be me. Another week it's going to be digs. One week it'll be Nico.

Like, that's not what I want to hear for fantasy football because you know what that means? That means inconsistency. That means your team, you know, when you need him to score points, he's not going to maybe come through for you. I like these really small target trees. That's why we love Devante Smith this year because, listen, they're throwing to brown. They're throwing to Smith. That's it. Goddard, you know, he gets hurt every five minutes.

They don't throw to the running back. It's two guys. So that's, you know, just remember that when you're looking at these Texans out there. Now, I will say, I agree with everything you said. Thanks to fantasy points data, if that does happen, we have a pretty good opportunity to figure out who, which week, which guy is going to be based on the data on the coverages and all that. And by the way, I would not doubt a single word tank Dell ever says because as I reported back when I just, talk with him at the combine i was like wow this kid is the real deal like i i just surmised from talking with him that he's been doubted his whole life based on his lack of size as he told me and

he also brought up devontay smith by the way he's like see he could do it see i'm like yeah man and i came back from that and i said last year all year and i wrote it i'm like i'm not doubting that guy uh and we saw what happened so if you hear tank dell talking anything That kid is real. All right. So believe what he says. Let's finish off with a couple of rookie wide receivers here. And we're talking about only one ball to go around.

Roma Dunzee for the Bears has an ADP of 64. John, this might be the biggest gap. You know, with these next two guys, the biggest gaps we've ever seen between you and ADP. ADP of 64, you've got him down at 147. We talked about his OC coming over. He didn't do anything with JSN last year. You know, it's, and now we're going to expect rookie quarterback. Still, you know, offensive line.

Yeah, we'll see about that. But Roma Dunez is going to produce as a top 65 player in fantasy. There's no way unless Keenan Allen gets hurt. Yeah, of course. You know, so everyone is assuming that will be the case and they might be right about that. But I'm looking at a guy going off that board in that range, Christian Kirk. Oh, my God. Like, really?

Like 10 out of 10 times. He's a guy who had 108 targets in 13 games the year before last. and balled the f out 68 grabs and then last year he got hurt he was not a little bit of a down year but christian kirk is is pretty damn good and and by the way after evan ingram like he's the guy like i could argue christian kirk is the first read uh for trevor i love christian kirk i loved him two years ago when he broke out and i love him this year is a tremendous value uh yeah i did too i liked him last year as well in the year before uh when he really broke out is another guy chopped it up with an indie in his combine rock solid dude rock solid and that that has been

that's what he's been how about Xavier worthy ADP has him as a top 75 player he's 74 overall you got him all the way down at 166 we were chopping it up before the show and I said this kid look to me he's going to play with that MVS shot play role like why would you want him in anything other than a best ball format and your ranking seem to agree. Oh, yeah. I mean, look, we could be wrong again. We could always be wrong. But I'm just looking at it from a logical perspective and all that.

And I know, I know that Rishi Rice did exactly what I thought Sky Moore would do last year. But in my defense, they freaking plate them rice in the slot when I thought they would put more out there. They never gave more a chance, really. Maybe there's more of the story that I know. But there's a big difference between, and look, I liked Ray Rishi. I came back from the senior bowl, watched him with Brett Whitefield that year. I'm like, yeah, I like him. And I interviewed him too.

I set up an interview because I liked him in the combine. He was a great guy to talk to. Obviously, he's had his off-the-field stuff. I did not pick up on anything like dark or negative, but hey, who to hell knows? but I enjoyed that little chop up with him. But there's a big difference between, and look, he does deserve credit for working himself into the mix as he did. Big difference, though, between finding a place

where you're settling into the soft spot of the zone, making yourself an available target from Patrick Mahomes like 70 yards away, and being on the same page as Patty Mahomes catching 40-yard airballs. Like, good luck with Xavier Worthy, With that, in a complicated offense, and maybe he does or doesn't have the confidence of Mahomes, that's a hard thing to wrap your head around and attain, obtain, if you're a receiver. Like, how do you get the confidence of Mahomes? Because if he doesn't have confidence, then he ain't throwing you the ball.

He also doesn't track the deep ball all that well. So, you know, all kinds of problems there. Hollywood Brown, as you mentioned, is very interesting this year. But it's going to be Hollywood, Rishi, Rice, and Kelsey. And then maybe Xavier Worthy is the fourth receiver. But good luck with that, taking the fourth receiver on, yeah, even the Chiefs at 70, whatever overall. It's ridiculous. You look at the Philly Live draft.

Eagle Ed took Xavier Worthy in the middle of the 10th round. Two picks later, Josh Palmer goes off the board, who you can argue is the number one receiver for the Chargers this year. I would much rather have, and this is the unsexiest pick of all time, but I'm going to say it. I'd rather have Josh Palmer over Xavier Worthy any draft in America this year. All day long, all day long. I've been way over Palmer literally since like February on this puppy. And right now, I've got him at wide receiver 47, 80PS 62 with 64 grabs, which would lead the chargers, by the way.

Good player. Not great. Good. Inside, outside versatility. I think Alad McConkey is going to be inside. So Josh Palmer is your top outside receiver for Justin Herbert. I know they're going to run a lot, but, you know, it's one of those target share things. I think he's going to get like a nice 23% target share.

Could Josh Palmer be this year's Nico Collins, man? Who knows? Yeah, no, I'm feeling that one. I've been on Palmer from the beginning. If you follow me, I'm like, again, I'm not saying he's a stud, but like rock solid. He's been that. Yeah. If you guys want more of the guru's cheat sheet, go over to Fantasy Point.

We have our rankings that the computer spits out and then we know how you guys love the guru. Guru has his own special section for just his cheat sheet, his top 200 PPR, standard half point, whatever you need. It's all there at fantasy points.com, John. We'll let you get back to packing and get on the road, but this is a fun exercises. Man, we're knee deep in draft season, brother. This is going to be a lot of fun for the next few weeks. Yeah, and you and I just put an hour. and 14 minutes on the on the clock here with some content here for the podcast people shout out to

everybody who listens and uh and downloads tell your friends hook us up throw us a bone like subscribe all that good stuff yeah man good thing they pay us by the minute here so we'll keep going so all right folks enjoy your weekend out there thanks for jumping on with the guru and i we'll see you next time for the fantasy points podcast