Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Points Podcast | Guru's RB/TE Sleepers

Episode Date: July 29, 2024

In this episode of The Fantasy Points Podcast, "The Guru" John Hansen and co-host Brian Drake break down their sleepers at RB and TE. Where to find us: httpp//twitter.com/Fantasy_Guru http://twitter.com/DrakeFantasy http://twitter.com/FantasyPts FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We are damn near in the month of August, which means it's basically go time. And on this week's podcast, Brian Drake and I continue to look at the sleepers going into the preseason, guys available like 100 plus picks into your draft. We look at the running backs, nice group talent spread throughout the drafts, really top 150 picks at least. And then we also take a look at some tight ends, including my number. one sleeper of the season. I have never been more confident, honestly, in a player with an ADP of as high as this guy's is. So I won't give it away, but stay tuned for that in the podcast here forthcoming at the tight end position. Thank you, as always for listening, subscribing,

giving us a five-star review and a good review. And as always as well, you are welcome. All across the fantasy universe, welcome everybody. It's the fantasy points podcast, Brian Drake, with the guru John Hansen. And John, we had such great response to the podcast where we looked at sleepers, some values you could get at wide receiver. We'll say 70 picks into the draft. We're running it back. We're going tight end and running back today.

It's really incredible. We always kind of think now there's no sleepers anymore. That's not the case. I think there's undervalued and missed priced players. And that's what you've done a great job of finding. Yeah, Brian, great to be back on another podcast. I've been saying this for a while. When I first started playing fantasy,

I noticed that, you know, I really enjoyed finding those value picks. I mean, we weren't, I wasn't even thinking in those terms sleeper or whatever. I was just like, this guy's really good and no one knows it. I'm going to take them, you know, at this point and let the chips fall and all that.

And long story short, over the last 10 years or so I found kind of, you know, doing this for a long time, it's not easy to maintain a high level of passion almost for anything. You know, you notice when you go to your lawyer or your CPA or whatever expert that you utilize, when people are doing something forever, they tend to think, oh, I can, whatever, sleepwalk through this and they don't really explain the process. to the customer because, oh, I've been doing this is old half for me. It's just a way that people get, I think, bored of their jobs.

Well, this has been the, the reason why I have not gotten bored, because I'll never, ever, ever get bored or tired of finding a great pick, value, sleeper, however we want to phrase it. As I say, that's what gets me up in the morning. So right in my wheelhouse, baby. And folks, you also have to realize when you're doing your draft on And whatever platform you choose, maybe it's Yahoo, maybe it's sleeper, maybe it's whatever, CBS that you're on. You can also take advantage of the ADP that they have reset.

So that's why you need to go to FantasyPoints.com, print out our rankings. We've got our computer rankings and projections, and then we got the Guru's rankings. If you've been living and dying like I have with John's rankings for the past 20 plus years, we got those for you, too, in a printable form, print them right out, cross names off as you're doing it on the computer. And you're going to have a great time because trust me, some of those ADPs are jacked up on these sites. And you're like, who the hell is this guy 20 spots down? But you're going to find some values. And also real quick, before we get into it, I do think, and maybe this is just me.

But I've thrown this out there and people seem to agree. Even like later in the draft where obviously a hunter picks in as we're going to talk about today. Yeah. You know, it is a little all over the place. it just feels to me this year once we get past the clear studs or not studs but strong options and that typically is about 75 players i've noticed over the last four or five years that there's a drop off around between 75 and 100 but i think this year it is more all over the map than ever i think that there are a lot of unsettled situations there always are but it just seems to me that adp is a

little all over the place this year. Is that me? You know what it is? It gets swayed by all this best ball stuff that's going on because everybody's playing underdog. So they're wide receiver drunk. And then you get to your home league in August where you're drafting against your buddies, your office mates. And then all of a sudden you're like, wait a minute. There's not 58 wide receivers going in the first, you know, two rounds like you see on underdog. It's, oh my God, people actually draft running backs. And we're going to have a quarterback go in the third round because that's real life. That's real fantasy football. As much as we like to talk about, you know, oh, I'm in all these great expert leagues. And trust me, I'm in a ton of them.

I just did one on the FFPC last night. And it all comes back to the home league. That's the league you want to win, the one against your buddies where a guy's going to take Josh Allen, you know, 15 overall. And, you know, he can still win the league. There's a lot of paths to a championship. So you're not wrong at all. I've got your top 200, griffic list in front of me right here. We're going to pick off some names that you've highlighted past, I will say, you know, 7,500 picks into the draft. And this first name when you sent it to me, I agree with. But it goes against a lot of what you've kind of built your career on, which is young ascending talent. This guy's not exactly young.

If you watch Hard Knocks, the Giants talked about, oh, we don't like running backs who are 27 years old, blah, blah, blah. They let's say, Quinego. They signed another 27-year-old running back in Devin Singletary. but he's kind of the only game in town, John, isn't he? And where you can get him, 100 picks into a draft, if he gets all these touches and he's damn near 1,000 yards and I don't know, maybe we can get seven touchdowns out of the guy, he's going to come through. One of the most boring picks I've ever submitted, honestly.

But then again, are you really boring if you are available 100 picks into a draft and you get, let's see, 260 touches. That really doesn't sound boring to me when you consider the low cost, basically, and the potential ROI for a true bell cow back. I've actually interviewed Devon Singletary at the Combine. Again, boring, but not bad, certainly. He's just a no frills, chill dude.

And it actually kind of is reflected a little bit in his game, but, you know, he has always been a guy, obviously not a stud, but good lateral agility. He's got to make you miss ability. You know, he's a pretty good receiver, not great. Not doesn't have like home run speed or anything like that, but I mean, that's one of the most overrated things for a running back. He's a little bit of a grinder and not extremely talented, but again, you look at the offense and it's just, wow, they are majorly thin of running back. And of course, Singletary played for Brian Dayball in Buffalo. So the familiarity there is good.

He is going to get like 22 touches week one, guaranteed. He's also been amazingly durable. Do you recall a single Devon single Terry injury? I mean, you look back to 2019 when he was a rookie. he only played in 12 games. I can't recall if he was injured or he just, he's a rookie and he wasn't maybe seeing the field. But to your point, you know, 2020, 16 games, 17, 16, 17. So you're right.

He is durable. And his last year in Buffalo, he ran for 819 yards and five touchdown. So he had a couple back to back 800 plus yards seasons on the ground, you know, caught 40 or damn near 40 balls his last two years in Buffalo for, again, Do you want Devin Singletary as your RB1, maybe RB2? I don't know, but if he's your flex, if he's your first guy off the bench, maybe if it's a zero, a hero RB build. Okay. Devin Singletary is going to start every single week for your fantasy team.

Absolutely. You know, you don't want to overrate volume and draft a guy just for volume. But at running back, if you're a hunter picks in, you can do that, basically. I always go back to Toby Gerhard. I know it's a weird comparison, but that year. Right. Bobby Gerhard? Oh, yeah.

The year he took over in, he went to, what was it, Jacksonville, right? I can't even freaking remember. You know, people were taking him in the fourth round, the fifth round, because, oh, volume. It was like Devin Singletary. And let's take a look at what happened. He played 14 games, but he only had 101 carries because he was bad. He was 3.2 yards of carry. So, yeah, in theory, you know, when you have a guy who's presumably set up for volume,

it looks good. But if you're not very good yourself, then you're just not getting the volume at some point. And that doesn't apply to Singletary, though, because he's clearly better than everybody else on the roster. And, you know, he's shown that, yeah, he can produce. with volume. It might not be exciting, but it's productive and the numbers are there generally based on his touches. He doesn't do a ton with him, but solid. Now, we'll say about Tyrone Tracy, I think he's a massive wild card, the rookie. I mean, if we're counting on a former receiver

here to truly contribute for the Giants early on, good luck. Good luck with that. I mean, it could take a half a season for Tyrone Tracy. Eric Gray, I thought was a decent prospect. He's got a, you know, pretty much a three-down skill set. He's just not really. very good in anything, solid. But this is probably the worst backup running back group in the NFL. I'd agree with that. Let's keep it moving. Let's talk about, you know, we talk about a guy who is always on the field in Devon

Singletary. And let's move to a back field where they're running back has a tough times thing on the field. I'm talking about James Connor in Arizona. And when James Connor plays, James Connor is a good back. Okay. James Connor, you know, last year, 15 and a half points a game in a PPR only played 13 games, though. Year before that, guess what? 15 and a half points in a PPR only played 13 games.

So there's a reason that the Cardinals go out and they get Trey Benson, kid from Notre Dame. And I see him in some drafts. People are excited to get Trey Benson on the roster because guru, they just assume, listen, it's James Connor. You know, he's like Christmas. It comes around every season. You go, up, let's get ready. here comes the James Connor injury, you know, put a hangar stocking over the fireplace because the Santa Claus is going to come down and put an ACL injury in James Conner stocking.

I mean, I'm not presuming James Conner's going to get hurt, but let's be honest. If you draft Benson in the ninth round, you're hoping for a Connor injury. You mean, not that we're hoping anyone gets hurt, but that's where you're kind of banking on. But I would still classify this as, you know, one of the oldest tricks in the book, basically, to get a rookie, a very talented high pedigree rookie running back who does not have a starting job, basically handed to him. I mean, I haven't gone back and looked, but I think most of the time, the cream rises to the top. There's usually a reason that the back was drafted by the team.

You know, they have a need, whether it be a short term or long term. but you know James Connor's been very good he's hanging on really well but you're not he's not getting 350 touches now we'll see about Michael Carter because when the offseason started I thought maybe Michael Carter had a chance because he showed some signs there in the offense late in the year but he's probably kind of clinging to a roster spot battling DJ Dallas I think the other thing is the Cardinals are looking pretty good offensively and I was absolutely shocked when I did the projections earlier in the year looking at the data like the Cardinals had one of the seven best running games in the league last year maybe even top five I mean

all the metrics they were like really really good so they deserve a lot of credit for that and you know Paris Johnson their number one pick last year you know they've done a pretty good job reloading here on the O line so at the end of the day you can't count truly count on Trey Benson, but, you know, it's only a matter of time until he's their guy. He might fully take a year, but, you know, he's going to get some play here alongside Connor. And of course, if Connor misses time as he does, now you're looking at a high impact needle moving asset. And generally speaking, as long as I feel pretty good about my first eight picks, I'll take that guy in the ninth round as a stash and hope at worst. And Trey Benson went to Florida State.

I said Notre Dame. I'm thinking of Audraguestime. Yeah, so Trey Benson and I'm in the Fantasy Points prospect guide that Brett Whitefield did. And it's still available at FantasyPoint.com as a free download. And you can look up information on all of these rookies coming in to the league this year. And maybe the most glaring thing that Whitefield says is in his final points. He goes, Benson might be the cleanest running back in this class to project as a bell cow type at the NFL level. So you got a guy who's, you know, six foot,

215, 220, you know, he can run well between the tackles. He can block out of a cannon, man. He's shot out of a cannon. That's the kind of guy you want. And that's why we're doing this podcast. If you're going to load your bench with upside talent at the running back position, you know, guys who are one play away, get guys who are one play away, but they're also really talented. And if you're everyone's going to blow their Wad and Fab trying to get this guy if he was free on the wire. You're going to have him sitting on your bench thanks to this podcast. How about real quick?

How about this consistency real quick? You know, started the career at Oregon and only played two years at Florida State, which is good, you know, and only had just over 300 carries in two years. But 22, 154 carries for 990, 23, 156 carries. for 906 so 6.4 and 5.8 yards per catch and then he's actually got plenty of potential in the passing game in 2022 11.1 yards of reception in 2023 11.4 so i mean that that that that consistency level right there is is encouraging especially the past catching stuff so yeah i don't think he's he's not to uh you know zeke elliott or jonathan taylor level

He's a notch below that, but that's still better than 88% of the running backs are coming to league. So he's up there, Trey Benson, in terms of talent, pedigree, upside potential, of course. I guarantee you, you and I are going to be sitting here next year doing this podcast, and we're going to be talking about the running backs for 2025. And James Connor won't be on Arizona anymore. We're going to be talking about Trey Benson as like a third or fourth round pick. You're going to be like, oh, yeah, this is Trey Benson. You're going to get him as your, you know, second running back.

or maybe if you go two receivers early, take Trey Benson. Trust me, folks. That's the way it's- 100%. We're drafting off a next year's cheat sheet in many cases. Yeah. And a guy you loved last year, speaking of drafting off future cheat sheets,

because you knew what he could become was Tage Spears for the Tennessee Titans. So, folks, I want you to wipe away everything you knew about the Titans, about the Titans run game, about their offense. It's all gone. It's all different, okay?

Gone is Derek Henry. Gone is this slow ground and pound team. They went out and they tried to upgrade their offensive line coaching. They tried to upgrade their skill position players, which they've done at wide receiver. Will Levis is going to be there. They're going to throw the ball all over to place. You got Spears. You got Pollard.

And you can get a nice value on Tajay Spears. You loved him last year, John. And when he got work later in the season, you talk about shot out of a cannon. You look it up in the dictionary and the pictures Tajay Spears. Oh, yeah. And you mentioned the O line. That is absolutely massive. And I think I've talked a little bit of spears here on the podcast.

I'm not totally sure if I really address the O-line because, first of all, that O-line last year was absolute ass. So shout out to Tage and also Derek Henry for doing what they did behind that terrible O-line. But now here come the cavalry has arrived in the form of Brian Callahan and his dad, Bill Callahan, who is one of the top five O-Line gurus. of all time. And that is extremely important. I don't think maybe quarterback, sure, but I don't think there's an area or a positional group that is more in need of great coaching than a line play because a lot of it is fundamentals and things like that. And a guy like Callahan will make a good line very good, almost immediately. Not only that, but They last year used their number one pick on Skoronsky, the left guard, and then Latham,

who will be their left tackle. And they brought in Lloyd Cushenberry. So all of a sudden, they might actually have, I know it's a big ask, but Callahan helps. They might have like a top half O line. And at that point, that's all we'll take. If you're top 16, I think that's pretty good. But some digits on Spears, by the way, despite playing behind this crappy O line, Let's see here. Among 49 running backs with 100 more carries, he was fifth, an explosive rate,

18th in yards after contact per attempt, and he had the 16th best stuff percentage, which again is worth noting because of the upgrades on the O line. When I sat down with Tajay last year, I was really impressed and fascinated honestly by what he, you know, I asked him like, when you, when you do a play like are you what are you doing here are you reacting to color you know is a game slowing down for you and he basically said that if he does a great play and the the coaches ask him about it right afterward he's like i don't know what i did there it was just instinct and then they would go watch the tape and invariably his instinct was the right thing to do based on the play call and the blocking in front. So one of the reasons why he's really good and showed well is because he's got sick feel

and instincts for this game. That's it. So I absolutely love him. I drafted Pollard over him in this draft we did on Sirius. I stupidly thought I could get Spears in the next pick, which I'll probably regret it. But, you know, Pollard certainly is the starter. They're paying him the most money. but they're already saying it in training camp now that these guys are completely interchangeable. We don't even know like who's going to be the primary receiving back. I've kind of leaned toward Pollard a little bit because he's a former college receiver, but I think Spears is better than Tony Pollard. At the end of the day, I think he's a better player than Pollard.

So at 114, that's, it's a great pick because he's going to be a factor. You know, we were just talking about flexes. I mean, at worst, he's going to be a good flex. At worst. So if you, if you were told, oh, you can get a guy in the 10th round, ninth round even, who lock it in. He's a good flex running back. And he might do a little bit better than that. You'd sign off on that almost every time. And like you said, Pollard's coming in. He's interchangeable. And we don't really know what we're going to get out of Pollard. He had such a bad year last, last season. It's it's odd to see a guy who had so much promise. I know he was coming off an injury and whatnot, but he just looked like absolute garbage last season for Dallas. So yeah, they lost Kellanmore. I thought that I thought that really hurt them, Brian, when they lost Kellemmore because and also in the complimentary role. See, that's the thing. Pollard was better with fewer touches, but I think the Kellamore element is, is in play here too, you know, coming off that leg injury, by the way, which he said the fibula late

in the year that he was just now getting to, you know, 100%. So between those elements, I feel like he'll be okay, but it was surreal, no matter how you slice it last year, how bad he was. All right, rolling through a bunch of values you can get, let's say, 100 plus picks into your draft. We're up to a guy in Brian Robinson, who is the starting running back for the commanders. So now, I mean, before we're kind of talking about some guys, yeah, maybe they're a backup. They're splitting time. Brian Robinson is a starting running back for the commanders team that is going to run a lot more plays this year under Cliff Kingsbury. One is that Eric B. Enemy trash offense from a year ago.

You know, gone is Ron Rivera. Dan Quinn coming in. He's going to put everything in front of Kingsbury. Go nuts. Have some fun. You got Jaden Daniels now at quarterback. I'm really excited about him. Austin Echler joins him in the backfield.

And that's where I want to start. So you're saying to target Brian Robinson, Echler showed nothing last year. I don't know if he was just hurt or if he's, you know, father time caught up with him and he hit the wall. Yeah. But he was definitely hurt. but your other point may be right as well.

Is a Robinson young elusive guy, can he kind of even just distance himself from Echler? Because with a young quarterback like Daniels who has a propensity to take off and run, I mean, is he really going to be dumping off that much to Echler? Like if Echler's in on third downs or hurry up mode. So, I mean,

I don't think they're going to put Austin Echler in at the goal line. There's no point. That's why you have Robinson. Yeah. So, yeah, I don't know. I'm not feeling Echler at all. I don't think I've drafted on my single team this year. Not at all.

No, not at all. But, you know, it's kind of weird because you, you'd mentioned at the top of the podcast, like I put my kids through college, basically,

uh, targeting young, ascending sexy sleepers and all that crap. And it does seem like, finally, it took a decades, I guess, but,

you know, the markets see their overrating rookies now, uh, about half of them at least are, being overrated i i do feel like the the entire pool of players here are getting a little bit more into these sexier maybe more volatile picks meanwhile i'm sitting there like always looking for an edge over the last couple of years if you listen to me on serious last year 2023 i'm like you know what i'm going to embrace boring uh because you know there there's nothing boring about

Brian Robinson last year, even though it was a little sporadic, but if you read my draft plan article, I took him every time because he was an unbelievable fourth back in like the 10th round. I'm like, yeah, all right, Brian Robinson again. Let me take him. And guess what? He was an RB2 on the season. And we saw Cliff Kingsbury, Cokes an RB1 season out of James Connor in 2022 with 15.5 points per game in 13 games. I actually think they're similar body and skill types here. So yeah, I mean, Brian Robinson should be good to go with another 250 touches. It's been pretty durable. You know, I mean, he's not a stud, but he's their best option. And he's already proven that he can do it in the NFL last year. It was an RB2. Yet he's still being drafted in the late 9th,

10th round. So it's a good, it's a good recommendation. At worst, first really good depth, you know, as your fourth back, let's say. Exactly. You hit a buy week or you got an injury, you got to fill in and you're putting Brian Robinson in there. You're not getting, you know, three points. Brian Robinson, he'll get you 10, 15 points in a PPR. The other thing, you know, I mentioned pace and how big a change Cliff Kingsbury is going to bring to Washington. And I don't know the casual fantasy fan pays much attention to it, but I know I do. When you look at teams that play at a faster pace, it's just simple math. You're going to run more plays. You're going to probably sustain more drives and you're going to have more opportunities to get into the red zone

to score points. When you're playing these slow, boring offenses, and you can think of the Jets, Aaron Rogers is notorious for that, running the play clock down and all that. It's not always conducive to fantasy points. This Washington offense is. I've never in my life said I'm excited about the commander's offense, but this year I'm kind of into watching a man. Well, I guess I guess technically the commanders only existed for what two seasons. So yeah. Yeah. And you're maybe do you remember when the Washington team was deadly? Uh, I mean, a fun bunch back in the day. You're talking even I'm talking like 90. Gary Clark. I'm talking like, uh, Mark Rippin, winning the Super Bowl. 90. That was one of the best teams ever.

Yeah. Or was it 92, 91? I don't remember. Yeah, whenever one of the other. Anyway, yeah. Yeah, they're a good team, man. And you know what? And they did it the right way. They built around their lines, uh, those Washington teams. I mean, you can get an old team. Not that they're good. The current DC team is doing that because that would be, uh, the number one concern. But, you know, it's been a concern ever since they traded away Trent Williams, basically. I don't know how the hell they're doing it, but they do seem to hold up to where they're not a sieve so at least we got that going for us i will say you know they spent some money they got

tyler biottis from the cowboys you know nick allegretti we'll see we'll see what they can do here uh in washington this year uh you know we talk about offensive minds we mentioned kingsbury i mean you can't talk offensive football without sean mcvay and now sean mcvay has blake Corum on his roster, who if you go to the Fantasy Points prospect guide, Brett Whitefield had him as his number one running back, the, you know, 5'7 and a half RB out of Michigan. He's a really good player. You're talking about a first team All-American, good vision, a guy that can contribute as a passer. But, John, he's got Kyron Williams in front of him. And you and I did a pod last week and the clip made social

media stand on its head where you said, don't draft Kyron Williams. You're not in on him. And if you're not in on Kyron Williams, it would stand to reason you might be on Blake Corum. So why is that? Well, I mean, again, I'm not a Karen Williams hater. I'm still expecting him to get 18 to 20 touches. Look, at the end of the day, it is annoying a little bit. And look, I'm confident in my takes, but it is annoying when, you know, the masses kind of poo something. It's like, guys, you don't know shit either. I mean, the, the, we don't have The season hasn't happened. You don't know shit about what's going to happen here.

Will Cameron Williams stay healthy? You don't know that. All we can do is use logic. And has Kyron Williams had injuries the last two years? Yes, he has. Was Kyron Williams a high draft pick, high pedigree? No, he was not. Did Kymer Williams have an accomplished college career?

Not really. Did he test well at the combine? Not really. was there any competition in the backfield for him last year? None whatsoever. Again, I'm not, I could be wrong. I mean, Kyron could deliver to goods again. I understand that McVeigh does lean on one running back generally.

But I would also argue, like, how many times in the McVe era did he have two really good options? I mean, he went from Gurley to like Darrell Henderson, and that wasn't a good option. He kind of had to use a dual backfield there. I guess Cam Acres to just throwing that out there. I don't think Sean McVeigh has had an option behind his starting running back as good as Blake Quorum. And Blake Quorum, I think if you read the prospect guide, you know, Brett theorizes that he was not right for much of last year, but later in the year started showing the old agility and things like that. So I just look at him as, you know, like a low to the ground volume type guy with,

with make you miss ability. That works in the NFL more often than not. Yes, it does. And speaking of making you miss, how about this next guy, Chase Brown in Cincinnati? So Chase Brown's a guy who maybe you don't know much about that had Joe Mixon there forever.

Well, Mixon's gone and enter Zach Moss as the presumed starter. But Chase Brown, excuse me, is going to have every opportunity to contribute on this team because let's be honest, John, Whenever we see these kind of journeymen, you know, I don't want to call them a scrub, Zach Moss, but he's not set in the world on fire. Whenever we see guys like that come in and it's like, hey, we're going to bring you in as a starter.

Oftentimes those guys don't work out because there's a reason they're bouncing team to team to team because there's nothing special about them. But in the little glimpses we've seen of Chase Brown, we've seen some home run ability. So, you know, he's a guy. That's an exciting player to get on your roster in the back half of the draft. No question. You know, the NFL is obsessed with explosives. That's been one of the things like there,

there's always seemingly like three or four areas where people in the NFL coaches and stuff, they kind of emphasize it. Then, you know, we go a little while and it's not really a thing that's talked about a lot, even though it's always there. That's been a thing. Like, we've got to get explosive plays. That's how you win, basically. Well, you're not really getting much of those, I don't think.

with Zach Moss. I know, and I'm saying that knowing that he gave the cults that last year, I think that was a much better O line. I think it was planetary alignment there where he landed in Indy and Taylor had his situation. The blocking was good. It just all went well. I'm not convinced that that happens now on Cincinnati. It's just like you said, kind of. And by the way, it reminds me a little of Kyron Williams in that like, last year we didn't give a crap about Zach Moss draft season. Now we're taking them, you know, at 100. I mean, I understand that's not horrible, but I'm not going to forget that no one gave a crap about Zach Moss last year or the year before. Whereas with Chase Brown, watched him in the senior bowl quick, you know, strings together

moves well, you know, good agility, you know, like. And then I set up an interview with the combine and chopped it up with him in a person. First of all, I was still to this. shocked at how jacked up he was because i you know he's kind of viewed as like a smaller guy you know but man he is not that small he is jacked up i'm telling you you know without the pads i couldn't believe it also an amazingly awesome dude uh he's got a twin brother in a league and all that the family's been through a lot i've heard too that you know he's much improved in year two so it's a little tricky because you don't want to overexpose him and it's going to be a little bit of a tandem backfield like a one-two punch maybe even a thunder and lightning but i'm not into moss uh even though i know he's

going to have a role uh at his atyp but i'm very very much into chase brown here i'm i'm seeing 150 to 175 touches and if the explosives continue he'll almost certainly offer up a real nice r oi because you can get him now like what 10th round i mean that's all almost almost a can't miss pick. And what do we love to do? Get guys that are tied to good quarterbacks, get guys that are tied to good play callers, and hey, that's what you got here in Chase Brown. Kendra Miller of the New Orleans Saints is a guy who I know a year ago people were getting excited about. They were like, hey, man, Kamara's breaking down. Kendra is going to be the guy. And it kind of never came to fruition for Kendra Miller. But what we saw,

in the last week of the season got us all excited. He went 13 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown, got you near 15 points in a PPR. And John, I dug this up on Fantasy Points data that Elvin Kamara's snapshot last year fell to just 53% when the Saints were leading or tied. So now again, they've got a new OC in Clint Kubiak, and we don't know what Camaras got left. But all signs should point to the young Kendrae Miller getting some action and being a value for us later in draft. So he's someone I've been excited to click latent drafts and best ball and now let him get into some managed leagues. My main thing, and this is maybe not the greatest sign, but I'm betting against Jamal Williams, who I think might be cooked, although he has kind of been Mr. every other year where if you look at the numbers and you think,

back you know even going back to green bay it's like man this guy every other freaking year where were we this time last year i said uh well actually last year when 22 ended i said i was kind of joking but not i'm like oh jemal william 17 touchdowns this year dude's getting four next year and he got one uh to my point about every other year and by the way that was a BS one uh that was the arty smith game member, pretty sure he got that touchdown when Artie was pissed in that game. Anyways. Yep, I remember that. So I think he might be there because he's got a lot of guaranteed money there.

But man, I know he's not old, but he did look pretty bad to me last year. He really did. Now, again, maybe he's every other year. He rests or something. I don't know. But I thought Kendry Miller showed some pop and some receipts. ability so it could be a headache all year if camara who by the way is maybe we're embroled in a little contract thing here in training camp with camara but you know again it's it's i mean how many

picks 135 picks and with drafts are locks you know so we're just trying to find the players going off the board this late who have a legitimate chance and you're actually hard pressed to come up with a better name than Kendri Miller, honestly. When you consider Alvin Camara is obviously well on the downside. So is Jamal Williams. Miller with a three-down skill set. I know he needs to improve on, you know, some of the nuances of the position here. But it's kind of lined up.

It does make a lot of sense. And again, if it doesn't work out, oh, well, you know, not a horrible tragedy here that you took Kendra Miller in the 11th round. No, not at all. You're looking for upside. You're looking for someone who. if something broke his way, he can help you to a fantasy championship. And the same can be said about Ray Davis in Buffalo.

Kid out of the University of Kentucky, you know, bowling ball type guy. And the room in Buffalo is weird, John. You look at the backs they've got. Obviously, James Cook entrenched as a starter. He's a certain type of back. Ray Davis, more physical. Then there's Ty Johnson. There's Darrington Evans.

More kind of shifty or smaller back. So I wonder if Davis could even carve himself out of role as a power back. And Lord knows, I'd love to see them take a little bit off of Josh Allen's plate, you know, running headfirst into linebackers at his age and paycheck isn't the smartest thing of the world to do. But, you know, Davis is intriguing prospect. And someone this late in a draft, you know, why not take a stab at?

They got a lot of dudes here who are pretty damn capable, like, hey, Darrington Evans is not bad. I know he's kicked around a league a lot. Of course, Ty Johnson, they're like brothers, these guys. guys like get cut left and right but not they're not bad um even tie johnson last year i was shocked he got that uh workload in there um but but under brady jo brady the new officer coordinator that did commit a little bit more to the run and that's going to continue maybe tie johnson staves off the rookie ray davis for a while but i'm with you i said that from the beginning on draft day while it might be a little bit of a weird pairing i do think that they do complement each other pretty

well. Ray Davis is a better receiver than James Cook, even though maybe James Cook physically has more physical tools to work with. Ray Davis is just good. He's just good a receiver. He's a very natural receiver. He runs pretty good routes. He'd been him and Marshawn Lloyd at the Senior Bowl, we're lighting it up, catching downfield balls on wheel routes and all that. And like you said, you know, I view Cook as a little bit more of a slasher who gets to the, perimeter, whereas Ray Davis is just more of that bowling ball downhill guy. So I do think that they might compliment each other pretty darn well. And then last but not least, you know, I like to do the personal sniff test, if you will, the eyeball test. Ray Davis, when I chopped it up with him at

the combine, one of the greatest dudes ever. Like if you, if you know anything about him, he's been through a ton of trials and tribulations. I mean, the guy basically was in like an orphanage. She had to like, you know, travel across the country to be in this like orphanage thing. It's, you know, all that. But unbelievable guy is a guy that you could tell has been through a lot and it's made him tougher and better. Like whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger. You know, that, you know, we've heard this before. Like, Najee Harris had a really tough upbringing.

Well, guess what? Since he's been in the NFL, no running back has more touches than Najee Harris. So I think there's a correlation there. what he's been through and his toughness and ability to be available. There's some of this in Ray Davis. Yeah, you've always been Mr. vibes, you know, and especially you go into the senior bowl, you go to the combine.

You've kind of had a good winning percentage of guys you've met in person. And, you know, people, you go like, eh, I'm not feeling it with this guy. Even just from a five-minute interaction, it's one of the guru's gifts. You can tell a lot from just standing next to a guy for five minutes. Well, and, you know, I know some people, sounds ridiculous but i mean i've kind of used this in my own life you know i i size people up and i get a good feel for things body language whatever um it's all worked out well for me you know i haven't i haven't screwed anything up in my life yet so and a lot of that is just the feel thing

you know what i mean the feel vibe thing sure yeah it's uh they people need to hire you to go on like first dates with them that could be your new thing you get have a google app or something and you go with them and like they type in certain things and you're like now head head for z hills this ain't going to work out buddy what they should do is you don't have to pay me much but have me just sit there to fly of the wall for for a team and uh sitting on all the interviews there you go this could be a now you're moving out of georgia we'll talk to kirby smart down there maybe we can get you working with the bulldogs you're talking to recruits we'll see what we can do you know with the worst vibe running back i think i maybe mentioned this a couple weeks ago the worst vibe I ever had for a running back. And I reported it back the day after. Darius Geis had that workout. Oh. In Washington.

Yeah, he had a lot of issues, right? But he was just awful at the combine. I was like, at his podium, he was a wise ass. He was like, I don't know. Really bad vibes. And then I'm like, I don't know. Because I actually loved this tape. But I was like, man.

Yeah. man I I just got a horrible vibe on the guy you know and I'm trying to think of a horrible vibe on a guy where he ended up being good Eric Ebron I had a bad vibe on him his career was kind of underwhelming at the end of the day even though I liked him 50 years in the first round pack you never lived up to no he never did yeah well if we can get you the job with Georgia you know maybe don't talk bad about d'andre swift he's a former bulldog and he's for the bears now. But the bears also have former Texas Longhorn,

Roshan Johnson. I'm getting my college stuff down here now. I'm reading all the college fantasy football over at fantasy points.com, and it's getting me back in that college mode. But it's a weird backfield in Chicago. They went out day one, a free agency, and gave D'Andre Swift all this money, like the second it opened. Of course, you know, there's no tampering, John.

But so Swift gets all this money, but it doesn't make sense. You had Roshan Johnson. You still have Killeherbert. I think one of those two guys probably won't be there when the season kicks off. So watch for one of them to go somewhere else. But Johnson was really good at Texas, if you remember. And, you know, now that he's in the league, I thought it would just give him some time and watch this kid shine.

Who knows? We'll see if Swift can stay healthy. But I loved seeing Roshan on your list. Yeah. Yeah. Now, it is, it is, as you said, there, a little bit of a couple of confusing situation. These guys could in theory cannibalize one another if we keep Khalil Herbert here. But I do think that there is a slight chance that maybe Herbert doesn't

make it. I did hear that somewhat recently. I'm also skeptical of Swift. You know, look, you're an eagle guy. And I said all summer, I'm like, it's going to work out with Swift in Philly. he's is annoying it's annoying because he was so bad with the lions the year before maybe not that bad but not great either and i had him in the ac i'm like the guy the guy gets like uh he's getting like six touches a week in detroit in 2022 that's all he can handle seven eight maybe yeah uh but then he goes to philly better align better environment on his hometown of course oh look oh he's available he's ball in that said i i didn't think he was that great honestly i mean i feel like if you don't block it up really well for dandre swift right now he might not get you much honestly then what's up with

the role in the passing game i have major questions about swift i will not take him at all uh we'll see if herbert makes the team uh i would think he would but i've heard it's not a hundred percent lock rocheon is he was a backup to bejean of course so he never got a ton of work he's a backup type but i like how the two things he could do well are money plays pass pro and receiving and short yardage i thought he ran hard last year i thought the wasn't too big for him uh you know showed some rugged interior running basically so you know good flyer here i mean these are just educated guesses here and rochon is pretty good back who really is not getting really any love at all i mean 1.91? I mean, come on. That's like your last pick of the draft. Yeah.

Let's talk about people who were taken in the real NFL draft because oftentimes those guys, they have a little, you know, there's an allegiance to the guys who drafted them. And sometimes when a coach comes in, he doesn't quite care for the guys the prior regime brought in. And there's no better place to look to that than Denver, where Sean Payton now has Javante Williams, there's Jaliel McLaughlin, Samajie P. Rines over here. It's a very crowded backfield for a team I think wants to run the football with a rookie quarterback, and then they go draft Audrick Estimate. Now, I think he's like a fifth round pick.

It's not like they, you know, spent anything to get the kid. But Estimate, according to Brett Whitefield, if you read his prospect guide, you know, big, powerful frame capable of serious violence. That's quite a sentence from Brett Whitefield. guys like that can make some hay and stick around the NFL, especially if you can block a little bit and help Bo Nix not get creamed on the backside. So interesting player in Audric Estime. I can't wait to watch him in the preseason.

Yeah, no doubt. I mean, there is a lot going on here. Number one, I thought the pick of Estime was worrisome a little bit because you have Giovante, of course, and there's some redundancy there. They're similar. and talk about explosive and like what was it what was the term like knocking heads cracking skulls what was the term again yeah whitefield said uh capable of serious violence yeah yeah i mean that's violent javon that's that's javante too a little bit um and then obviously somaget p ron so we might i know you probably saw this headline but

we might have some sort of a little bit of an issue here in a battle uh because estimate is going to make the team. Jalilil McLaughlin looks like a safer bet than Giovante or Piron. So, I mean, we could get some sort of weird battle where P.Rine or Jivante are edged out, pushed off the roster, traded, perhaps. We'll see in a week or two as we, you know, we're not into August yet, but, you know, I'm very worried about Javante. I thought at the end of the year, like, he'd be a great pick this year because another year removed all that well i have not heard nearly enough positive reviews of javanti williams this offseason and again we're just starting out in camp here so we'll see but the fact that they didn't have a lot of draft picks had other needs and felt the need to go

running back even though it was the fifth round to me that's a little worrisome because you know i think peyton is a my guy's guy and javanti williams was not his guy no No, not at all. So watch for that in training camp. And it's funny, we do all this work in the fantasy community and project teams and this guy's going to do great and blah, blah, blah. And then training camp happens in the preseason. And then guys get caught or traded.

And then all of a sudden, you know, the Dallas Cowboys who were like, oh, I guess it's Zeke and there's Rico Dowdell. Nope, Rocheon Johnson's their new starting running back because, you know, he got traded for a seventh round pick during the last week of camp. It happens all the time. Oh, yeah. Like the doff, the deck gets reshuffled like two weeks before the season. Like 20% of the deck gets reshuffled.

Like whatever we think now, check back two weeks before the preseason or a week after the final cuts come down. There are some adjusting there often. Sure, sure. And crazy things happened to the NFL season. You know, we didn't expect, you know, Delvin Cook to, you know, leave Minnesota. and end up with the Jets doing a whole lot of nothing. But hey, I didn't expect him to craft the bed, though. I did tweet that.

I'm like, when they signed him, I tweeted, you can check it. Look it up. I said, the Jets have officially jumped the shark with the Rogers thing and Lazzard. And now they're getting, I was like, nope, ain't going to work out. Didn't happen. Well, let's move to tight end and to find some values late in the draft. And you mentioned the Jets. Let's start right there with your guy, Tyler Conklin.

You know, there's maybe no tight end. You've talked up more than Tyler Conklin. And listen, there's a reason. He's actually a good player. And I think Aaron Rogers can make something of these guys. I've given the stat a thousand times on every podcast I've done of, you know, like the five tight ends with 50 or more targets the last three years. And Conklin's one of those guys.

So nobody wants to draft this guy, John. And you and I have said it till we're blue in the face. If Rogers plays 16, 17 games, Conklin's going to be a top 12 tight end. end. It's going to happen. Totally going to happen. PPR gold. Analytics, people love them, you know, moves pretty well, reliable, smart. They're in desperate need of receiving help. Mike Williams, right, opened on the NFI list as expected. Who to hell knows what Al-Lazar is going to do and bring to the table. Malachi Corley, I think, is maybe a little bit of a project. You could argue.

And by the way, I know it probably won't ever happen, but I did have a thought about Devante Adams and the Jets. So, I mean, just throwing that out there because. Oh, he'll be on the Jets by mid-season. They can't afford them right now. Would you be shocked if they found a way to make that happen? Devante Adams carries a $44 million cap hit next season. You have a better chance of playing receiver for the Jets than Devante Adams at that number.

So they got to do something where he winds up on a different team. And the Jets, the Raiders stink. They're not going anywhere. Why wouldn't you want to get rid of him and offload that contract and see if you can get some draft capital for him? Like you should do that now. Yeah. And if you're, I think by the trade deadline, Devante Adam is a jet. Is that a thing?

Is that other people talking about that? Yeah. I think that's out there because he's sad, oh, if I go into it, I'd love to reunite with Aaron. Oh, right. Okay. All right. Well, yeah. But until that happens.

I mean, I'm going to argue right here now that Tyler Conklin is Rogers' second option in the passing game, excluding the running backs, which is a little crazy. Yeah, and you look ADP-wise where you can get Tyler Conklin. You can make a lot of hay in your roster before you have to pull the trigger on Tyler Conklin. And, you know, you can get really strong everywhere else while some guys spending a, you know, third round pick on a tight end. you're waiting until the freaking 10th and getting Tyler Conklin and he's only going to score what a point or two less a week than maybe the Mark Andrews of the world. So we'll see. I mentioned Mark Andrews because Isaiah likely has been his backup for a few seasons and has done really, really well, John, when he's gotten a chance to fill in. Do you think this year,

given the state of the Ravens Receiver Group, which is never great, it's Zayflowers, it's Roshad Bateman, Aguilar still kicking around, maybe do we see some more slot work for likely they play more 12 personnel um he showed over the past few years like they need to have him on the field exactly yeah that that's wise here i mean he he at this point commands the ball a little bit here even with mark andrews there agelor and bateman are certainly questions tess walker is also a question although he can fly um they they really are kind of thin at receiver even though they have a decent group here to go into the season they don't have much in terms of like you know reliable proven commodities so it's not going to be easy and it may not

result in him having fantasy value i also like charlie coler the third string tied end but again they just have to find a way to get him back onto the field and again most likely you'll need a Andrew's injury for him to truly come through. So it could be a waste of pick. But with this talent in a good situation in the 16th round, 15th round, whatever it is, we're talking deep sleepers and all that. I am required to put Isaiah likely on the list just because, I mean, there are many guys like this who, yeah, is probably needing an injury. But if he does get that injury, he's a starter. and he might actually have enough of a role to where you could use him as a Hail Mary play. You just need one big play or a touchdown.

It's not ideal, but drafting a young, talented player like Isaiah likely in the 16th round is never a bad idea. Right. And you spoke about injuries. He needs an injury in front of him. What about a guy who had an injury befall him? And that's Joanne Johnson. The last year he was top 20 in PPR. points per game at 7.5.

He's always going to tantalize us, you know, John, with his athletic ability. Now is 50 year out of Oregon looking to take that next step. Two years ago, this guy had 54 for 508 and 7. So what makes you think we can get that breakthrough year finally from Joanne Johnson? Well, to me, it's more of a calculated risk, risk. I did like Joanne Johnson quite a bit last year. It did not work out. Now, that wasn't his fault.

he is a former college wide receiver he's also a south jersey guy full disclosure uh even though um today is i'm recording this on perhaps my last day as a resident of south jersey but uh you know former wide receiver moves well really money in the red zone the last two years but last year i mean him and derrick car were a thing in training cam and i'm like oh let's go granted derrick car is an anti-gou right and he was probably part of the problem you can't do you can't do you can't got to pull the trigger on throws when guys are open and he doesn't do that all the time but they do have a very thin receiving court this is one of those like i'm not counting on it but it is within the realm of possible outcomes that juan johnson starts getting gets a little bit more

red zone love starts stringing together touchdowns again he's been a great touchdown guy and then him and derrick car start clicking and then by the time he get to midseason you're like oh wow Johnson's the second option in the passing game. Again, I'm not guaranteeing this, but it's in within the realm of possible outcomes. So why not that late? These are guys maybe that are on the waiver wire and you're going to need when an injury hits or by weeks.

And I guarantee you a name that Tom Brawley is going to be writing up in the fantasy points waiver wire column. And, you know, John, when you're putting your final stamp on it, it's going to be Colby Parkinson of the L.A. gave him some money, two-year deal, and he's going to start, most likely because of the fact that Tyler Higby stole or tore his ACL late last year. Yeah. So really good run blocker, Parkinson.

So we should be on the field a ton. What we need to see is can he become a threat in their passing game? Because let's be honest, John, the Rams passing tree is not all that huge. It's puka, it's cool. We get a little bit of the Marcus Robinson. And we've seen Higby have some huge weeks. So we know they can target the tight end when they want to. Maybe having Puka out there with Cup is a good thing because it's going to draw attention away from wherever Colby Parkinson is.

You know, not like anyone has ever tried to. Defenses don't show up and say, hey, we got to stop Colby Parkinson today. But who knows? Maybe he'll be sneaky for us. This reminds me a little bit of Tyler Conklin in that like you get strapped by Minnesota. I mean, was that third round? I mean, he was considered a second tight end blocker. And then he said, oh, wow, he's a pretty good receiver.

Colby Parkinson out of Stanford, you know, maybe not as much nowadays. But Stanford's been pretty damn good producing tight ends in the NFL. And, you know, he did have 48 catches, his final year there, 589. The year before at Stanford, he averaged 16.7 yards per reception. So he got eight touchdowns at a lot of. about 80 grabs for over 1,000 in his last two years combined there. You know, and he was drafted a little higher, I think, than people thought, fourth rounder in that 2020 draft.

I'm going to guess now that there was a good tight end or two drafted after him. So I remember thinking, what the hell were they thinking? But he's not that bad. You know, there's some moments. He was like the third tight end one year. and he still found a way to contribute with Russ Wilson. Let's take a look and see if there is, is there anyone that's good at tight end?

Oh, maybe this was a bad tight end class because I'm not seeing much. But still, I think you think of Colby Parkinson, if you ask the average NFL fan, what round was he drafted out of like a six round pick, right? No, no, fourth rounder. I'm still looking.

Actually, the answer is no. Man, that was a shitty tight end class. But yeah, I mean, Higby, Higby went on the NFI. So he's, he's probably what, PUP for sure. So we're not counting on him at all. And Kobe Parkinson is a kind of a complete player, you know, like a blocker, receiver, kind of like Higby.

So, yeah, he could, he could end up sneakily being like the third or third option, at least in the red zone. Yeah. Let me hit with one more guy here. And it's Jalani Wood. six foot seven inch tight end for the Indianapolis Colts. And I got a quote from his head coach Shane Steichen here. He calls him a big body tight end that can run the vertical routes,

run the shallows, run the deep cross. It's awesome to see. Obviously, he's a matchup for defense that they got to be prepared for. So there's been a little hype starting around Jolani Woods. We know Anthony Richardson's going to be coming back this year. We want to see what they've got in the receiving corps behind Pittman. they drafted A.D. Mitchell. They still have downs in the slot. So there's some miles to feed here, but boy, six, seven, John, this guy's an athletic freak out there. Yeah, he's going to be probably touchdown dependent because I don't know if we're going to get a ton of volume. It's been a little bit of a tight end by committee. But he is, you know, he's their top guy right now, I'm sure, entering training camp. I do like Will Mallory. So we'll see about him. But it's kind of, you know, look.

look, we're still putting this puzzle together, but at least in terms of having a complete attack, he is kind of the final piece because we did not get consistent production or play from tight end last year, yet Josh Downs had a pretty damn good season. Michael Pittman was as good as always. The bus kill was Alex Pierce,

who turned out to be nothing, not much more than a nine-rout guy, but, you know, they brought in A.D. Mitchell to be a little bit explosive run after the catch things like that final piece of the puzzle is middle of the field where's that presence for anthony richmond who's big strong tall well it's jolani woods big strong tall so there there should be some easy completions uh if he gets the red zone love then he could come through but again worth a shot in the dark just using logic here and ascending still ascending offense with a second year quarterback and a big need of tight end and enough around

around him to where he's not going to be like a marked man or anything. They should have a good running game. You also like to draft tight ends on teams with good old lines, just so you don't have to worry about them having to stay in and block. They have a very good right tackle, by the way. So it's a pretty good, really good spot for a potential breakout, not counting on it, but I think you're irresponsible if you're talking deep sleepers at tight end this year and you don't bring up Jolani Woods.

Oh, man. So that is a really, really nice look. We just rattled off, what, 15 guys between running back and tight end that you can get more than 100 picks into your fantasy drafts, folks, that Guru thinks has some upside to produce for you. So don't ever say that the sleeper is dead. Maybe the term sleeper is dead, but there are undervalue points out there that if you're focused on the right spots, you know, you can find some value. So, well, John, let's let you get back to packing here. Sounds like you got a lot going on, man. And when we see you next, I think you'll have a birthday coming up around the corner

and training camp's going to be in full swing. I know they're just starting up this weekend. So it's an exciting time for fantasy football, my friend. Yeah, I'm just going to be going crazy for another week, if that. And I'll be moved down by next week. And then I'm good. I mean, I have gone through. I mean, people listening to this,

We've been talking about this for weeks now. This has been the longest move in the history of nomadic behavior. But it's almost over. And not a coincidence that it's almost over by my birthday, which is July 31st, which to me always signals the beginning of the preseason, the true beginning, August 1st. So that is, you know, a week away and I'll be ready to go. And then we'll just track the preseason, continue with the content, make our adjustments. I'm actually more looking forward to the regular season with all the data we have and making correct weekly calls and props.

So it is a wonderful time of the year. We're getting excited. No question about it. I can't wait to win some money on the props because I've got two kids myself. You put them through college. Mine are still young. I got to save up for the college. So be like me.

Go to FantasyPoint.com. Sign up. Get your subscription locked in right now. win this year with the great staff that we have over there. John, Joe Dolan, Graham Barfield, Tom Broley, Brett Whitefield, Scott Barrett. Congratulations. Scott just got married this past week. And the whole crew we got there. But for John, I'm Brian Drake.

We'll see you next time in a Fantasy Points podcast.