Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Points Podcast | Mike Clay

Episode Date: June 24, 2024

Welcome to The Fantasy Points Podcast, where "The Guru" John Hansen brings you the best in fantasy football insights and analysis! In this throwback episode, John and Mike Clay of ESPN take it back to the Sirius XM days and compare player projections! Where to find us: httpp//twitter.com/Fantasy_Guru http://twitter.com/DrakeFantasy http://twitter.com/MikeClayNFL FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk. Business. Thank you for liking and subscribing and commenting and you're welcome. And we are here with our guy, Mike Clay, from ESPN. Mike and I work together on Sirius XM. I don't know, maybe 30, 40 shows, Billy Area guy. We get along really well. So we'll bring him in now.

What's up, Mike? How are you? I'm good. And yeah, we had a nice little run there on Sirius XM. And I know you're hanging it up soon to an extent. So congrats on a great run. You're a legend, certainly on the Mount Rushmore for the channel. Who else is on that, Mount Rushmore?

Who are we putting on there? I mean, Fantasy Sports Radio. You're number one. Who else do we got? I'm not, wow, that's a good, good question. I mean, wow, you know, the rotor wire guys have been on there from day one. You know, there's been, you know, it's an almost completely different crew from when the channel launched in 2010 to what's on here now. You know, so I don't know.

More importantly, who's on the Mount Rushmore of fantasy analysts of all time? That's really the question, Mike. Well, that's also you. You're going to get some consideration for sure. Maybe someday. Maybe someday. Now, you're there. Now, you're there.

But the thing that I loved about are doing the show is like we would have very respectful conversations about players. And, you know, we disagreed a little bit. But people loved it. People really sucked it up here. So I thought it would be great to kind of. hang with you a little bit here i'm kind of focusing a little bit more on this podcast and then we'll do what we normally do right the projection comparison situation so love that yeah let's get

into it and you and i you know haven't really chopped it up much so let's start with quarterbacks and i'm just going to cherry pick some dudes here that i'm into and i don't know where you stand on mr jordan love mike but we're going to start there because that's kind of i think my guy this year i'm I'm always looking for a little bit of an advantage, like a value with a dude who could still be a stud, basically. Your thoughts on what you saw from Jordan Love? How much is it for reels? And let's hear a yardage and touchdown passing projection from you. Yeah, so I like him.

Now, he did appear in 17 games last year. As you know, I'm a little conservative with games played. Part of that goat is, you know, doing a lot of work with player props. So I want to be careful with going too high because if you just project every. one for 17 games and compared to player props, you're going to be over on 85, 90% of them. It's just the nature of the beast. There's so much injury risk factored into those. So 15-game projection for Jordan Love.

I do like him as a player. I think it was a good find by Green Bay. I think they're going to have another terrific season. But you and I, I remember this argument you and I had years ago. One of our hottest debates was Patrick Mahomes, year two, after the 50 touchdown game. And my argument was he's going to be great. he's going to play at an MVP level, but his stats are going to come down. It's just you got to bet against the extremes.

He did. You have a great season. The stats came down a little bit. Same kind of thing here with love. I'm not going to project him for 32 passing touchdowns again. But I have him at 26 and I have them for just a hair under 3,700 passing yards. Still going to be a good season. So going to be back in 2B1 numbers.

It doesn't run a lot, but just enough to hang in that conversation. So I expect a little bit of a step back. But again, some of that is factoring in some injury rate. It's a difficult. because CJ Stroud is another great example, because we're either going to go two ways here. Either the breakout year the year before was a little bit of, you know, I don't want to say a fluke,

but a little bit of an aberration, or the guy's a stud and he's going to get better in year two. I mean, that's kind of what I'm looking at with Stroud and love. Do you agree? Yeah, I'm with you. And I think the ceiling's higher for Stroud. The pedigree is obviously there. He's going into year number two.

And love, I mean, efficiency-wise, you look at like completion rate, YPA, I know you look at those kind of things when you're projecting these guys. They were pedestrian last year. They were average. They were basically league average. So he, you know, he had a very high touchdown rate. And for me, when I'm doing this kind of thing, it's just so hard for me to project those extreme touchdown rates because we know how volatile it is. Guys go from first in the league and touchdown rate to the complete other end unless the situation is perfect for them. And that's the case even for guys. I think usually it's wide receivers that we apply it to. Guys will get a ton of end zone targets and still their touchdown or their touchdown number

will fly all over the map. So that's part of why, I mean, Packers fans are a little irritated with me this offseason. That's kind of why I came in on the defensive job? Because I already hear it for them like, why do you hate Jordan law? Why is your projection so low? It's really not that low. I mean, it's a 26 passing touchdowns in 15 games is a good number. That's going to be a highly productive season.

So cautious optimism there, but I think it's more like fringe QB1 than an elite fantasy quarterback. Gotcha. You know, and I did go ahead and, you know, I could be wrong. But, you know, I project the games out. And when I see a young guy who hasn't had any injury problems, I'll go 17 games. You know, if he has any problems, I'll pull back going forward. So I did go the 17 games there. It might be a little bit much.

Speaking of touchdown rates, and I know you're a big regression. guy and all that and believe me, I'm all over it too. But there was a guy who I said, man, if he can come even close to his excellent touchdown rate as not a full-time player in 2022, then he's going to light it up. That is Brock Purdy. And he did it. He, he, he, he, it didn't, I think he went down a little bit, but he still led the NFL. So where are you at with Purdy because now we've got two years basically of him rolling in with like what a seven, eight percent touchdown rate, which is absurd. Yeah, not to mention YPA, right, fourth in 2022 first last year too.

So he led, I mean, look, if you just base your evaluation of quarterbacks on stats, you know, just rate stats, efficiency stats, Brock Burdy's the best quarterback in the NFL coming off last year. I mean, he just dominated pretty much every category. The reason that most people don't rank him that highly, if you're just, rating quarterbacks, not fantasy, just rating quarterback ability is the Kyle Shanahan factor. And that, to your point is I think why he's finished number one in that category the last two years and is so high in YPA. I mean, look at who's, look who leads the NFL and YPA over

the last decade. It's Jimmy Garoppolo. It's Brock Purdy. It's, I think C.J. Bethard's the other one that's up there. It's called the McBay-Shannahan tree, basically. Nick Mullins. Yeah, Nick Mullins is the other one, right? So it's just the nature of the beast with this offense. And so I can certainly buy into him throwing a lot of a lot of touchdowns to keep it up some, to some extent, that high touchdown rate. So I'm at, I'm a little lower with him because, you know, Christian McCaffrey is obviously a factor there. 15 games as well. I'm at 24 passing touchdowns, but still leading the NFL and YPA, still a really terrific season. I put him right in that tier with Jordan Love.

I think they're very close in terms of Fantasy Valley. It's week three of Canadian Tires early Black Friday sale. If these surprises won't go lower this year. Maybe too long. Save up to 50% November 20th to 27th. Conditions apply, details online. You know, you and I have done, you know, a couple of interviews at the Combine. I mean, I remember we interviewed Josh Allen together.

And by the way, I came away from that interview saying, I don't think I've ever seen a guy more inclined to ball out in the NFL than Josh Allen. My favorite receiver interview of all time. And I set it up because I loved them at the senior bowl was Ricky Pearsall. Oh, nice. Yeah, I love Ricky Pearsall. I'm going just just Ricky, by the way. I'm predicting that he's that good that we don't need to we can just go Ricky. You know, so in two, three years, like, oh, what do you think of Ricky? Like, oh, I love Ricky. You know what I mean? Like,

we can go just first name. And it's been a while since we had a Ricky, you know, Ricky Williams, Ricky Henderson. We need a new Ricky. But you're like, are they going to throw more? Like, are they changing the offense? I thought on draft day when they drafted, I'm like, oh, or Iyuk or Debo's got to go. Maybe Iyuk still goes. But let's say they stick with these guys. Like they've got to change the offense a little bit, don't you think? Yeah.

And I don't think you're going to. I think it's going to be one of them years where Pierceaw, who, by the way, is that back end first round pick. And those guys don't produce like top 10, top 12 drafted wide receiver. So probably going to be a slow start for him. It's a guy that's going to be probably drop. He'll be drafted a little bit, dropped after week one or two. and then if Debo gets hurt or IUC gets hurt or traded at the deadline, suddenly he's going to be the hot weaver ad.

So that's what I expect is going to be the case for Pearsall this year. Going to be a slow start. Don't forget, Juan Jennings is pretty good player. He's going to be the three. They still have Kittle. They still have CMC. The two receivers. And you're right.

Maybe we get a bombshell, a Schefter bombshell here. And Ayuk gets traded as possible. It's a late in the off season for that. So I would be surprised at this point. But it's possible. And if that happens, yeah, Pearsall will skyrocket in value. I'm with you. You mentioned Schaefter, programming note.

I am the, I guess, main guest on Adams' podcast this week, by the way. Oh, sweet, nice. Yeah, so I was you in the chair with Chefty, and now we've switched it up here a little bit. You mentioned Mahomes. I'm actually very into Mahomes this year. I've got him as my QB2. Clearly, that YPA has been a problem, and they're clearly looking to address it. What do you think of Mahomes this year?

Yeah, so I'm with you. that we're going to see that offense kind of change a little bit. You know, something that I think wasn't discussed a lot last year was his average depth of throw, which was near the basement in the league. I'm looking here. He finished 40th. So that was 11th percentile. So one of the lowest adots in the NFL, by far the lowest of his career, almost by a full yard. So that's been the trend the last couple of years. He was more aggressive earlier in his career. But they went out and addressed that. I think that they're kind of done with that. I think they adjusted to so many teams go so many defense playing cover two against them to high safeties oh yeah i think that they

decide we're going to adjust to this be more conservative one with defense run the ball when we can dump it off those kind of things um but also it's been a wide receiver issue as well since tyreek left so i think with marquis brown in there and Xavier worthy in there uh that we're going to see that number go up more throws down field and a bounce back for patricka home so uh yeah i'm fine targeting him it's not like he's super expensive right now in drafts i mean i've seen we're doing staff mocks right now and Anthony Richardson's going ahead of him. Wow. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hertz, Josh.

So he's not super expensive right now. Not to mention, by the way, he didn't have a rushing touchdown last year. It's the first time in his career that he hasn't had a rushing touchdown a full season. So that's probably going to bounce back a little bit as well. So yeah, I think he has a little bit of a better season.

Choping it up here with a guy, Mike Clay from ESPN, my former co-host on the satellite radio machine there. Your boy, Tua, you know, Doing well. There are some limitations. Where are you at with Tua?

You know, last year I did have concerns about his availability. And he showed a lot dropping some weight this year. You know, I've got him at 30 in 15 games. That's a big number, Mike. Your thoughts on Tua? You have them at 30 passing touchdowns? Yes, I do. Wow.

Yeah, bolder than me. 15 games, 23 for me. Wow. Extrapolate that out. It's probably 26. So I'm a little behind you. Well, you are typically low. You come in low on everyone.

I mean, Mahomes are six above where he was last year. So it just kind of depends on the circumstances. And, you know, look, Tua last year had the hot start. And that carried a season because he was a horrific fantasy quarterback after the first, what, two months of the season. I mean, he had, I'm doing some quick math here, 18 touchdowns in his first eight games through the air. He had nine in his final, or he had a lot. 11 in his final nine games. So he only three games with more than one touchdown and none with more than two

after having a whole bunch of high touchdown games early in the season. The second half follow-up is a thing with this Dolphins offense. It's been an issue with Tua for years. He is not a good fantasy quarterback. He led the league in passing yardage last season. It was not a good fantasy quarterback unless you spot started. I'm just for a couple of those games. And it doesn't run the ball.

Yeah. So I'm not. I think the yardage comes down and the passing touchdowns come out. Wow. Well, yeah. I mean, it's funny because it's like, like it's one of these things where you're right on a player you take a stand you're right and wrong either way like if you love toa you were kind of right but if you didn't like me you were kind of wrong

i do like odell being added to the mix i actually do think john who will help a little bit uh but yeah yeah i mean okay uh i'm surprised because i know you were you're kind of into tua um any other quarterback uh jump out to you i mean we've got jaden daniels versus calaub williams and i've got them like neck and neck and in my top 12 because of, of course, the cheat code. Yeah. So I do have Jaden just ahead for that same reason. But I think Caleb's going to have one of the best rookie seasons we've seen from a quarterback because of the supporting cast.

Number one quarterbacks just don't walk into a situation with one of the best, maybe the best trio at wide receiver in the NFL plus two basically two starting tight ends. Three, I think quality running backs. I mean, it's such a good situation. So I like Caleb. but I think the running for Daniels is going to be huge. The guy I'll ask you about is Joe Burrow because he is the guy in our staff marks that's plummeting. He's basically going, you know, 8th, 9th round in 10 team leagues.

And same thing in 12-teamers. I mean, you're seeing him across the industry falling with the hype around some of these other guys like Stroud and Richardson. So look, Burrow, a couple years ago, healthy, QB4 and fantasy last year after that bad first month, once he got going before the injury, QB4. and yet you can get him, you know, a QB eight, nine sometimes. So he's the guy I've been targeting as of late. I think he bounces back over 4,000 yards, pushes for 30 touchdowns. Well, I've got him at eight. I've always been a huge burrow guy.

I don't know if we were together on that. But, you know, when he won that Natty, I did tweet that I thought he was an ex-Tom Brady. I mean, I really did get a lot of Brady vibes from a more athletic Brady, maybe with a lesser arm. But the injuries have scared me a little bit. this t higgins drama is a little little scary they did lose the officer coordinator they did lose joe mixon um you know it's it's not an easy call um i i would love to i'd feel a lot better about burrow mike if we can get through the summer without any injury drama so if we're looking good in mid to late august i'll probably feel a little bit better but you know the one thing that

kind of bothers me is he doesn't play under center and And I don't know what is up at that, but I was talking with someone close to the team who said, yeah, you just, you just like won't do it. And I'm like, that's a little limiting, I think. Like, look at Brock Purdy. Look at all the opportunities for play action when you're playing under center. So that's a little thing that bothers me a little bit. I do like Jermaine Burton. So I guess I'm kind of like agnostic on Burrow this year, but duly noted because I've always loved Burrow.

I mean, I'll say this, Mike. we have not yet seen Joe Burrough's career year, right? Yeah, oh, I agree with that. I'm with you. I think my, like, I hear the concerns. They also are very passive. I don't think that's going to change. I don't know the past heaviest link teams in the NFL.

Yeah. But also, like, if you think about that tier where he's going, he's the cheapest. I mean, that's kind of the attraction. Like, I don't, I didn't go into draft season, especially thinking, well, Joe Burrough is going to be my guy this year. But he's just so cheap. It's like, this guy's top five upside. and I can get him down, you know, after Dak sometimes, you know, as the eighth quarterback off the board.

But that's here, right in there with Richardson, Stroud, Dak. I think those guys are kind of similar in value. And yet Burroughs the guy going often the latest, if not, Dak, it's Burrow. He fits my profile that have kind of formed maybe the last two, three, four years when you see these running quarterbacks. You know, I've been a little against them because of the availability issues. I mean, to be fair, Jalen Hertz has had problems. Kyler's had problems. Lamar's had problems over the last three to four years, you know, maybe intermittent, but, you know, some of these are coming at a bad time, like Jalen Hertz in what,

2021, 2022 wasn't really useful in the playoffs. So my prototype is I want a guy, you know, big strong pocket passer who wins from the pocket consistently, which is probably more predictable. But, you know, if you do need to run, keep the running in your back pocket and give me 50, five at rushing attempts for, you know, 200 plus, two, three, four rushing touchdowns to augment. It's not guaranteed. Mahomes is one of these guys. He didn't get any last year. But, you know, Joe Burrow and Jordan Love are kind of like the perfect quarterback to me.

Yeah. And don't forget, you mentioned what? You won 50, 55 carries. A healthy Joe Burrow in 16 games two years ago. It's 75 carries. Yeah. Over 250 yards, five rushing touchdown. So when he's been healthy, he has run the ball.

That was the big difference with him in. 2022 and he had that big season. So I agree. I think his best fantasy season is ahead of him. He's still 27 is in a good situation. So I'm going to be targeted in this year. Remember, injured last year before, the year before 35 passing touchdowns, a year before 34. This guy can put up some big time number. So I'm expecting to bounce back. I mean, to your point about regression and all that. And when he was in the doldrums last year after like week five, I mean, it was bad. I'm like, please, Tray for this guy. I mean, you want to talk about an R-O-Y,

and then he went on like a six-game run where he was great. Yeah, he was K-B-4. Yeah, you're right. And that's, again, that's what I'm talking about. I just think the concerns with him are now overhyped. It's like, it's gone too far. This is a guy with top five upside. He can get in eighth round.

You know, it's just a good discount if you want to wait a quarterback. He's a damn good football player and he's damn near elite. So that's a good R-O-W-R-A. why let's transition on over with my clay from ESPN to the running back position i'm sure you have cmc at one here but i am very enamored with a foursome at the top that i'm calling the flawless four i've probably cursing by calling them that but you know i i like my running backs to be young durable and versatile like i know that's a lot to ask but i would say generally durable at least Brees Hall, Bijon Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Jemir Gibbs, to me, and I know you'll probably

put Barclay in that group, and I do have him next, but I kind of love how they stand out, Mike, to me. I'm probably taking one of those four, like 80% of the time in a round one this year. So I'm actually in a running back this year in round one, not last year at all, but this year I am. Yeah, so I actually think it's a tier, well, really it's a tier of one with McCaffrey, I think. I'm a little nervous about him being 28. I mean, you look at the last decade only, or actually, I guess it's the last five years, only 7% of top 15 finishers at running back have been 28 or older.

So you wonder, when's the, when's the shelf for some of these guys? There's a lot of 28 plus running backs, Camara, Henry, Mixon, McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, James Conner. There's a lot of them this year. So a little nervous about that. But it's so hard. I mean, his week-to-week production is just so good. It's so hard to pass on him. But I think it's McCaffrey.

The next year, I think it's too deep. I think it's Hall and Bejohn Robinson. and then I have, I still have Taylor fourth, but I think he is a cheer blow with Barclay and still hanging with Kyra Williams in that tier. I'm still buying in. But, you know, look, I agree with your top three. I'm targeting those guys early. You know, if I'm picking in the top three, I'm taking a running back. You know, I know some people are taking two of them. I want one of them big three, no doubt about it. But, yeah, oftentimes I've gotten Taylor or Barclay later in the first round. I'm happy to do that as well. I think they're going to be terrific. And I'll just add this on Taylor.

But I think the reason he's a tier down is, you know, he doesn't do a lot in the passing game. And Anthony Richardson, probably going to steal some rushing touchdowns from him as well. That's a factor for Barclay, too. Just limits the ceiling a little bit. But I still think he gets the double-digit touchdowns. Big Taylor fan. I'm with you. You should be in the top five.

A little bit of a drop-off after that, though. Like, I don't even know what the next tier is. You mentioned Kairn Williams, you know, E.T.N. Rashad White. I'm kind of still in on Derek Henry. A. Chan's a tough projection. I mean, it does drop off a cliff after this tier, Mike. Yeah, it really does.

I like Gibson Pacheco after Kairn. I think those are two quality targets there. Pacheco is going to, they don't have a number two. I mean, they just ran out options and signed C.E.H. back to be there, too. It's going to be the Pacheco show. So I like him quite a bit. And I'm with you.

I think once you get in, you know, White and Cook, you get throw Josh Jacobs, Ken Walker in there. You see a drop off. I'm lower on each hand. Again, you're just buying on that big play ability. that high touchdown rate, that insane yards per carry. It's just not sustainable. They drafted another running back.

You still have mostered there. There's just a lot of factors. Not to mention the knocking him coming in was that he was too small. He was not a guy that can handle 17, 18, 19 touches. We barely saw that last year. So you're really counting on, you know, Hall of Fame level efficiency. And I can't do that. So he's just going too early for me in the second round.

A couple of guys I like down the board a little bit here. I mean, I'm going to get Ramandre right three years in a row because I loved them in 2022. I didn't like them last year. I actually was worried about Zeke Elliott. But I actually think his competition got worse this year with no Zeke. Still like Dave Montgomery. I know it was boring, but I kind of liked him. And I got to tell you, I mean, the Steelers are going to run the rock this year.

So, I mean, it's a little confusing with two guys. But I'll just say that I like them both, Naji and Jerry. and Warren. I think they can both be R.B2s. Yeah, it's funny. I have them projected for almost the same exact number of fantasy points. 176. It's almost the exact number. And it's two different ways. Naji is the runner. Warren is the pass catcher. It just worked out that way. So I'm fine with them. I think they'll both be more flexes, fringe RB2s. Some weeks it'll be higher. Some weeks it'll be worn depending on game script. So they're right around 25 for me. A guy I found myself taking a lot that's going quite a bit after I have been ranked is Brian Robinson. Oh, yeah.

I know Echler is there, and maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Echler's the 1A, but I don't think so. I mean, he's 29 coming off a season where he was scaled back and struggled. He'll be out there when they're throwing the football, which might limit Robinson. But Robinson, if I'm not mistaken, let all running backs and yards per target last year. He can do some damage in that game. He's big. He's going to be the goal line guy.

You know, perhaps lane's opening up with Gene and Daniels back there. So I'm excited for him. I think he's the 1A, and he's going not far off Echler. I don't understand that. So I'll take him all day. I mean, you know, I do my draft plan article that I've done forever and I draft a bunch of teams implementing the plan using ADP. And I mean, I did it a hundred times in the summer. And it was like every time it was like round nine.

I'm like, well, let me get Brian Robinson again. You know what I mean? Like he was unbelievable. You know, pretty good receiver. I watched him at the senior bowl catching the ball. Actually, Ron Rivera came on the radio show that's this past summer and said that they were going to throw it to him on early downs. That didn't necessarily play out, but, you know, pretty good receiver. I'm with you on that one.

I always find that you get a nice little discount with the rookies. So I'm sure you're probably looking at Jonathan Brooks, right, as maybe not September. But I mean, by the second half of the season, I believe Jonathan Brooks is going to be rolling. You like Brooks? Yeah, we've had in a rookie R.B, a rookie running back finished top 15 of fantasy points nine of the last 10 years. I know it's not a great rookie class, but someone's probably going to step up and have a big season. He's the most likely, of course, in Carolina. Could be a slow start.

But here's the thing, to your point earlier, that drop off at running back, right, once you get past like Walker, A. Chan, Stevenson, then it's a lot of question marks. Swift, Aaron Jones, James Connor, Brian Robinson, guys, I mean, Robinson, I like him where you're going. Don't get me wrong. I'm not, but he's probably not going to be like a fringe RV one or anything like that. Brooks is a guy that has a three-down ability. You can run the ball, can catch the ball, you know, be a, you know, be a, you know, be a 20 touch guy. So it might be a slow start, but after that tier, I just mentioned with A Chan Stevenson guys like that, I'm fine to take that shot on Brooks and, and wait a couple weeks before

I feel super confident in him, but, you know, the sky's the limit for sure. How about in Tennessee, Tony Pollard at 80 overall or my guy, Tage Spears at one time? I freaking loved Spears last year. And he didn't crush it or anything, but if you have you have the gift of sight, you know he's good. Yeah, it's such a tough one because, uh, look, on one hand, you're like, okay, Spears was basically, what was the RV 25 last year? He was a flex in a backfield with Hall of Famer Derek Henry. So if Henry's out and Pollard's in, theoretically, Spears should move up and be better this year, right? Maybe jump into the teens. On the other hand, Pollard was quickly signed to a contract that included a lot of money and the bigger back and he's

going to play. I mean, probably best case scenarios, this is a, uh, a one for one out of the gate, and then maybe Spears over time take some control there. But barring a Pollard injury, I think they're going to split this backfield very much like, you know, kind of like Pittsburgh, except for a little bit more evened out in terms of the role they played. So it's going to be a tough one. But if you draft one of these guys as your flex or RB2, you're just going to have to ride it every week and just hope for the best. But I do have Spears ahead of Pollard, but that's a tough one. It is a close call because, you know they're both going to play a lot. One more runabout. Zeke Elliott, like, I mean,

I mean, the guy's scoring 7 to 10 toddies, right? And he's catching 40 plus. He has to. Yeah, I mean, he's just going to be one of them boring flex guys, I think. You can throw in there. I don't think he's going to be super exciting. I mean, Rico Dowdell actually played a lot more than I think we realized last year. He was playing like a third of the snaps, which it was so quiet.

But we were so focused tunnel vision on criticizing Tony Pollard that we forgot about Dowdle in the background. And they might not be done. I mean, would it be shocking if Miles Sanders is playing for them week one? I don't think so. So I'm not, he's going in the double-digit rounds. He's not going to cost you a lot right now. I'm fine with that.

There's just not much of a ceiling there. Yeah, that's a good point about Miles Sanders. We're not done here. Let's move on a wide receiver. I'm sure you're all over Cedie Lamb at the top here. I mean, I love Garrett Wilson. I guess the first question is, are you in with the markets, if you will, on Marvin Harrison, Jr.?

That's pretty unique for a wide out, rookie White of getting this much love. I mean, going in the top 15, but I got to sign off on it, basically, based on role and talent and situation, it's all pretty solid here for Harrison. Yeah, I think what you get past, you know, E, and you get into Adams, Alavi, Pitman, Evans, Harrison, London, those kind of guys, that's where he belongs. I think that's totally fair. That's an extremely optimistic ranking, yes, but history says these receivers taken in the top 10 are going to get about a quarter of the targets and they're going to have highly

productive seasons. Like 850 yards is the floor for anyone, any of these guys that plays a significant role, you know, crossing off like Mike Williams and John Ross. But everyone else in the sample puts up big stats as a rookie. So I have a wide receiver 13. Again, I could see going as high as nine or 10 somewhere in that range. I've not drafted them yet. And our staff leagues is, you know, when there's an exciting new toy, everyone wants them and like Richardson and the same kind of thing. like we talked about earlier, but I think that it's tough to strike where he's going because he hasn't played yet. But at the same time, I do have him ranked 13, so he's in that vicinity. Yeah, you know, you don't buy the hype oftentimes.

You're probably right over the long haul. You know, you'll probably miss out a couple big old breakouts. But playing a long game, I'm sure you're probably right. Let's see here. Let's cherry pick a couple of wideouts. I think are going to pop this. year. And I'll start with Georgie Pickens. We know they're going to not throw the ball a lot. They're going to run the rock a lot. But we also know that he'll kick ass in the target chair.

Russell get him the ball, just like he got the ball to Cortland Sutton. I think the old line is going to be great. You know, I feel really good about the Steelers. And I think George is going to lead the way at receiver. What do you think? Yeah, it's tough. Because Arthur Smith has had some decent seasons in the past with Tennessee and his first year in Atlanta. with passing production when he's had a decent quarterback. So if Russ plays like he did last year, which is better than people realize, I think, you know, he's probably average at worst in terms of his on-field ability. Maybe Pickens has a really good season.

But at the same time, they're going to run the ball, like you said earlier. It's going to be a low-volume game. They're going to have a good defense. So they're going to try and keep these scores low and run a conservative offense. They've switched to that since in the post-Ban era, they've switched to a run-heavy offense. And I don't think that's going to change. So I'm definitely worried about Pickens being basically Drake London. You know, and we would, you know, look, Drake London, in theory, based on draft,

pedigree, should be the better player. He was drafted in the first round and he was still so inconsistent. What do you have three, three games with 18 points last year? It was just so dreadful the last two years with London in that offense. So that's my big concern with George Pickens. I just think it's going to be so back and forth, up and down, boom, bust, and he's going to end up finishing, like, if he makes it, through 17 games like five receiver 25 that's just that's my concern with him i mean i'm counting on

big plays period you know yeah and you know i think he can he'll get those he can do it better in london yeah i mean he's more more acrobatic he i you also have the we'll say locker room slash off field concerns with him too you know what's going to happen if he's not getting targets is he he gonna he's the number one now and he's if he doesn't get the targets is he gonna is he gonna be happy so uh that's gonna be curious to see how that plays out too that is a guy i did chop it up with at the combat and uh i always used the word bombastic and not negative not negative but my man's bombastic you know what i mean like he's he's high energy you know so i mean he is probably a little maintenance high maintenance mike tomlin probably well equipped for that uh how about the houston guys

because that's like it's a real quandary here do we really have three top 40 wide receivers there in houston i mean i feel like they're all a little overvalued nico and i love tank Dell last year. Steph Diggs, we do have a new data tool coming over at Fantasy Points, data tracking separation. And, you know, spoiler alert, the data on Diggs in that regard does not look good. So he might be falling off a little bit. Yeah, he was still good last year.

I know his efficiency was down with that Bill's offense having its issues, firing the coordinator. But he's still good overall. And he's still, you know, heading into his age 30 seasons. I don't think he's going away. I don't think Houston traits for him to be like just a dude that's telling on the sideline coming in at three wide sets, which they're going to have three on the field a lot anyway. So I have him 19. I have Nico ahead. I think he's the preferred choice. I agree with the consensus

there at 15. And then Delham a little bit lower on coming off the injury with those two guys there, Dalton Schultz as well. They bring in mixing it running back, all those kind of things. So I haven't drafted him a ton, but I think they're all about right. You know, it's just one of them things. Get yourself a little exposure to the offense where you can. And I feel the same way about Green Bay, you know, find a spot, get a little exposure to that offense. It's going to be, it's hard to figure out. But if you take a shot on the right guy and it works out, you know, it's going to be huge because the offense is going to be good from a passing standpoint.

So that's what I'm trying to do. I don't really have a preference at ADP, but it's like if I'm drafted in the right spot and these guys fall to me, I'll take some shots on both of those offenses. Yeah, well, speaking to Green Bay, we'll go there. About two or three podcasts ago, we had Gary Melton on, who was the father of Bo and Max. I happened to grow up with Gary in South Jersey. And we played a lot of sports together growing up. So it's a great podcast if you haven't checked that out.

I had forgotten, you know, this is so long ago, Mike, when you were like negative nine, Gary Melton and I both got called up to Littal League from the lower group. They needed a couple of kids. I completely forgot about that. But I did impress him with my memory, though, because I told him he, I told him what team he played on, what position he played, and his order in the batting lineup,

which I did recall from 1978. I'm like, yeah, you were on Rotary, you played shortstop, and you hit third. He's like, how the hell do you remember that? I'm like, I never forget sports stuff. But Christian Watson is, great, by the way. But your thoughts there? obviously the hamstring was a problem, but man, I mean, I think he's a league winner because

I think he commands the ball. I think everyone there is good. Don Tavian Wicks is good, Romeo Dobbs, but Watson's a little different. So you went on him? Yeah. So this one hurts because Watson was my guy last year. I had him everywhere. This guy talked up all offseason. And when he played, he was heavily used near the goal line. He had made the plays he looked like a league winner to your point. Unfortunately, he had the injury. Now, that's supposedly a thing of the pass. It makes me feel better about him. Not as high as I was last year, but you don't have to pay that price tag this year. I am going against consensus with him. I have him as the number one Packers wide receiver. Now, he's at 40, but I do have him ahead of his ADP. So he's my target

in this Packers receiver room. I actually don't want anyone else. I don't understand the Wixite necessarily. Dobbs, you know, he's whatever. He's going to make some plays, but probably not going to be fantasy relevant. And Jaden Reed, I'm just out on. The guy scored 10 touchdowns. last year and was like 40th and touches at targets at wide receiver and really benefited when Watson was out of the lineup. So I think he's just being overdrafted straightforward. You're probably right. But I think Watson's the preferred choice here.

I like them, ball. I'm probably part of that problem with Jaden Reed. I actually freaking love Jaden Reed last year. I really did. We nailed that. Our guy Brett Whitefield, who I know you know, we watch him at the Senior Bowl. And he hypothesized in the summer that Jaden Reed will be the volume guy. I'm like, oh, I see it.

I mean, playing inside and all that. It's just a lot to ask for a rookie. Well, he did do it. And now, but now to your point, he is getting a little too much love. Well, do you have anyone else here? I'm a lad McConkey guy, but I actually like Josh Palmer a little bit more. People are on to Deonti. I think Khalil Shakir is a high quality player.

And I'm also in on Jameson Williams. Those are a few of my favorites down the board a little bit. anything for you? Yeah, I think all viable flyers in the mid to late rounds there. I would say Coral and Sutton's a guy drafted like everywhere because he's just plummeting. No one wants him. So you can get them in the double-digit rounds right now, especially, I mean, here's the thing. You're not going to pay a lot for him. You know, he's already going to be used near the goal line, no matter who the quarterback is. The guy gets a ton of end zone targets. And what if Bo Nix is good? What if they, what if they hit a home run there? Sutton's clearly their number one receiver.

So he got a career year this year. So where he's going in drafts, I love him. Jackson Smith and Jake and Tyler Lockett, I've plenty of exposure to both. They're both so cheap in drafts into double-digit rounds. And then otherwise, yeah, like the guys you said, I'm going after these rookies. You know, a lot of really good rookie class first and second round. I'm throwing darts at whoever is at top the board, a duncee, worthy, McConkey, Coleman, Thomas, you name it. If those guys are sitting there, I'm going to throw some darts.

Do you notice the ADP, though, on a lot of the rookie. is getting a little out of control and that's that's a lot for me to say because i'm i'm usually all about the youngans uh but like you know adunze again he's good but man i mean there is only one ball here um you know i i feel i see it across the board um you know even even coleman in buffalo is a little pricey um i don't know i'm just noticing brian thomas i mean he could do nothing uh so why is either wide receiver of 43 I mean, he could ball out, but I doubt it. Even worthy, like, why receiver 37?

But that's a big ask. I mean, this is not Ray, this is not Rishi Rice, you know, a guy's going to sit in a soft spot of the zone and get a lot of volume. What do you think here? Am I crazy? Or the markets, the people overrating the rookies a little bit lately. Yeah, I'm probably a round or so lower on them than where they're going right now, but that's the usual.

Everybody overhypes these guys. But usually that means one of them will fall and that's why I'll throw a dart out. I'm not going to start that run. I'll finish that run with whoever falls to me. But the reason, look, after my starting lineups filled out, I'm happy to take a shot on these guys. Sure. Because, you know, you mentioned O'Donze. I mean, what happens if Keenan Allen tweaks a hamstring?

Yeah. I mean, boom, we're talking must start in fantasy, especially with the NBA top 10 picks. I'm with you. It might not be more than a deep league flex out of the gate, maybe less than that. He's probably going to, you might see four or three targets, week one. But in time, if someone goes down, look out. I mean, the sky is really the limit. So that's why I'm going to throw dark to these guys once I have my starters.

You in on Cooper Cup at all, or are you just team Puka all the way? Yeah, definitely high on Puka. I haven't drafted CUP much in these drafts. I have him at 23. I mean, it just wasn't great last year. You know, he really wasn't. Even when he played, I mean, Puka kind of took control there. also which Rams offense is going to show up.

It was really good. And then, you know, two years ago it was really bad. And we were really worried about that team. And does Stafford still happen? Just cup still happen. They're so reliant on those two guys. And then last year they were great again. So is, you know, another year later with Stafford, is this going to be a good team?

A great offense, a good offense. Are they going to have some injuries and struggle? It's hard to say. So definitely going, Puka is a clear one there. I mean, I thought Sean McVeigh did the best coaching job of his life last year. 100%. I cannot agree more. Unbelievable.

I actually called their demise the year before, by the way. I was like, no, no, it's going to go badly. And I was in on Stafford the year before. It's the every other year, nature and the roller coaster ride and trying to, you know, trying to stay on that right track. And now I don't even know what. I mean, I guess you got to give him respect based on the last year. I mean, Stafford, what the hell was that?

I thought he was done. And he was like, balling. That was one of his best years. Yeah, not to mention. Maraheem Morrison, that defense obviously was gone. But I mean, that defense had no business being even confident. No business. All scheme. All scheme. Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean, they had that one good game. Otherwise, they were probably like the 27th best defense. I mean, with what they had on paper last year, they should have been 32nd. They should have been 33rd, frankly. I mean, all it was like all

undrafted day three picks. There's no reason that defense should have even been NFL caliber. And yet they managed to hang in game to make the playoffs. So I'm with you. Best coaching job. Better than the Super Bowl. I mean, they should. They just get that team of the playoffs. It was unbelievable. Well, let's go to the final position here with the great Mike Clay from ESPN. I mean, I don't know about you, Mike, but I did retire from analyzing kickers and defenses. Fully retired from that.

And I'm enjoying my retirement leisurely. I don't know. I need your Jake Bates projection right now. See, I don't even know who that is. See that? That's the guy came from the, he was a UFL superstar. that's just the Lions just signed. Oh, okay.

So he's going to probably win that lion's kicking you up. All right. Well, we have experts at FantasyPoints.com doing a heavy lifting on that. And I did retire, but semi-serious, but also serious. Well, how about my guy, Trey McBride? How great is Trey McBride? I am very, very high on him. I have got him ranked over Leporta.

Over Leporta? Yes. That is a take. I mean, look, I think McBride is going to, be great. You know, I did a little work on his target share from last year to see if anything like that is sustainable. And the answer is no. I mean, his targets will drop down to where they were the final couple of games of the season. It came down to Earth a little bit. That's what you can kind of expect. It's just, I mean, it's just, if he kept up his target share from last year,

it would be the number one target share we've seen from a tight end ever. It's just not something that's going to happen. So you have to scale that down a little bit. Also, you have Marvin Harrison Jr. there. It's going to be a factor, whereas they had like no receivers when McPryb was crushing it last year. That said, I'm fifth. You know, he's still a top five tight end. I would go, I would prefer to go Ingram, who's going two to three rounds later. I mean, Ingram's been a top five tight end in the last two years. He had three players in the NFL of Marchets in Ingram last year, not tight ends, players in the NFL. I know. I mean, he's so cheap, he's going to the seventh, eighth rounds. I know, I know. I was actually in on him last year,

after being a hater, because he burned me a couple of times. Well, yeah, and I just cannot quit McBride because at the Senior Bowl, man, that guy, and I reported back on the air for the last two years starting in, I guess, 2021 or two. I don't even remember at this point. I guess it was two. I'm like, I watched him closely. The man won every single rep at the Senior Bowl. I'm like, I'm not doubting this guy at all.

And, you know, he has balled out. Yeah, yeah. how about how about pits man i incorrectly bought in not thinking it was a good investment simply with his price down a little uh i i didn't account for the fact that a the injury was still prevalent that wasn't necessarily my fault but the two things dogged them bad coaching if you will and bad quarterback play remained last year so i regretted that but i now i have to go right back to the well here with Kirkie. Yeah, so my only issue with him is that Titan's very deep now. You know, I have him tight end 10 and he's going, our 10, excuse me, and he's going, you know,

much earlier than that. Several titans that I ranked ahead are going after him. So that's the only issue. I don't love his ADP right now. And our 10 team mocks is going in the seventh round. It's just a little rich for me. I mean, again, I can get Ingram after that. I can get George Kittle after that. It led all tight ends and receiving yards last year. Even in Joko, I think it's the best value. He's going several rounds later. So I just don't think it's necessary to take that shot on Kyle Pitts, but I can't call him like a bust or something or a guy that I don't like.

Of course, I'd want to have some Kyle Pitts. The guy is an enormous ceiling. I still love him as a Bayan dynasty. There's so much to like. And I believe he's the youngest of all of the top 10 tight ends. Leporter might have a month or a couple months on him. But everyone else is 24 or older. He's 23 entering the season.

So it's still a lot to love there. Yeah, no doubt. I'm looking right here. Laporta and Pitts are both 23. Yeah, yeah. We got Brock Bowers at 21, but he's not, I don't know if he's like, you know, in that, in that realm. I don't have him in my top 10. Oh, right. Yeah, me either. Yeah, me either. Well, you know what? You know what? This is what's good.

You don't get overly enamored with the high ceiling upside guys. I do. I bake it in a little bit more. And, you know, sometimes it works. But again, your long game over the long haul, you're probably right more often than not. I do get a little enamored by upside. But one guy, I'd say my favorite target among the guys being drafted as starters is Jake Ferguson.

I think it's a perfect combination of solid value and, you know, ability to outproduce his ADP, basically, and some upside here around 90, you know, not a stud, but smart. plays fast. So, you know, you're out there, you're looking. I'm like, yeah, he can move a little bit here, reliable. Love me some Jake Ferguson. I think there'll be a passing team.

I think he could be the number two option in the passing game for DAC. 100%. I think the top nine tight ends get a lot. Maybe the top eight if you don't count David and Joku, I feel like he's just getting no respect in drafts right now. But if we include him, you know, there's that top nine. They get a lot of hype. And then Ferguson's like the next guy.

And I agree. He might finish. tight end five or six. You know, think about what Dalton Schultz has done in this offense. Think about what Ferguson did last year when he was tight in nine. They're going to throw in a ton. They don't have, they don't really have a tight end or a wide receiver two. You feel great about it.

Like Brandon Cooks is going down the other end. It was so inconsistent last year. So Ferguson is set up for another huge season. I'm with you. If you miss on tight ends and you're attacking other positions, don't feel bad to settle on someone like Jake Ferguson. After that, you know, maybe you get to Dallas Goddard. Then maybe you're a little worried. But even that, I mean, Hawkins,

when he gets off the injury. Dallas got her. We didn't mention Bowers, Dalton Schultz, maybe Pat Friermuth. He's jumped generating some height. Cole Komet in Chicago. There's just a lot of,

a lot of good options this year. I'll leave you, Mike, with the sleeper of the year in any position. Tyler Conklin, all in, pretty athletic kid. You know,

all their analytics people love them. That's why they signed him. You know, did a hell of a job last year in a bad situation. Clicking with Aaron Rogers, no surprise. I think Aaron's going to love them. And if things go relatively well,

I think Tyler Conklin, Mike, and I'm not a hot take guy here. I think he could be a top 10 guy. Yeah, I wish I had this stat in front of me right now. Conklin has, he's like one of two tight ends with, what is it, 52 plus catches the last three years, something like that.

I put it in my Jets article that I wrote. Oh, here it is. Yeah, one of four. tight ends with 58 plus catches each the past three seasons. So the floor there for him has been terrific. And think about the quarterback play that's just destroyed this offense for years. He continues to have a high floor. Doesn't have really much competition at tight end yet. So if Aaron Rogers works out and he's even above average, I mean, think about the last time that Jets have had average quarterback play. It's been like six, seven, eight years. So if they get average play out of

Rogers, that's going to be huge for Conflin. So I'm with you. I have him 17th, but he could be a sneaky top 12, top 10 guy too. Yeah, well, you're definitely over the ADP there on Conklin because he's like, I mean, he goes undrafted in some leagues, which is crazy. Yeah, most of them, yeah. Yep, yep. Well, Mike, don't want to take up too much more of your Saturday afternoon, although I don't know if either one of us is going outside because it's 99 degrees out,

but it's been great chopping it up with you and going over everything before we let you go. Obviously, your work at ESPN, TV, radio, you're still rolling. in here. What's going on with your content this year? Any changes? Where can people find you and all that good stuff? Promote all your stuff. Yeah. So it'll be the usual. You know, well, fantasy football now, Sunday mornings, all the usual written content, receiver quarterback matchups, the playbook, all that fun stuff. So doing a bunch of NFL content right now, you know, big moves for the offseason. We have a big roster ranking piece coming out that just did with Seth Walder and Aaron Chats. It drops next week. So a lot of good NFL and fantasy content coming down the, coming down the barrel here soon.

Great stuff from the great Mike Clay from ESPN. And Mike will let your run here. Great to chop it up with you. And we'll, we'll catch you again. We'll maybe do this in season. There is the great Mike Clay.