Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Points Podcast | The Guru vs Scott Barrett Draft Plan Special

Episode Date: August 19, 2024

In this episode of The Fantasy Points Podcast, "The Guru" John Hansen and co-host Brian Drake as they have Fantasy Points CEO and Dank Stat extraordinaire on for this draft plan special. Where to find us: httpp//twitter.com/Fantasy_Guru http://twitter.com/DrakeFantasy http://twitter.com/FantasyPts htt[://twitter.com/ScottBarrettDFB Use promocode - SCOREMORE for 10% of your subscription And read this article on Draft Sleepers - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/mr-relevant-late-round-targets#/ Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Listen to the podcast here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All across the fantasy universe, welcome to the fantasy points podcast, everyone. It's draft season. I know you guys are grinding hard out there and you're ready for the best information in the business. And trust me, on today's podcast, you are going to get it. As always, joined by the guru, John Hansen at Fantasy underscore Guru on Twitter. John, what's up, man? How you doing? I'm loving this background he got going on.

You look refreshed in your new home. You're ready for 2024, baby. Oh, yeah, I am ready. somebody asked me yesterday how many hours a week you're working now and I'm like it's I don't know right now I don't know probably putting in you know 35 40 about 40 let's call it 40 and I realize like by the way this might be the first time I've been at 40 hours or under in like 38 years so I'm loving it over here and I'm loving our guest today for the podcast of course our guy Scott Barrett you know I've known Scott now for what about 10 years. Him and I are very similar. We might be related. I'm not sure.

He was born. His birthday is July 30th. Mine's July 31st. And we both have grandfathers who were carpenters in Brooklyn way back in the day. So we might be related. But I'm looking forward to it. Absolutely. Let's bring him in.

The Man, the Myth, the Legend, the CEO of FantasyPoints.com, Mr. Scott Barrett, the keeper of dank stats. You can follow him on Twitter X, whatever you're calling at Scott Barrett DFB. What's up, brother? How you doing? I'm doing good. Yeah, congrats to you, John. So well deserved after, you know, basically founding this industry and then being an industry leader for so many decades. I don't know you found the same thing I've found, but like I wrote an abridged version of anatomy of a league winner. It's an article that wins nomination every year. I just like didn't feel, I felt like the only reason I was writing it was to get that award. And so I wrote in a bridge version of that. I tag team some more articles with Ryan. And I took some more stuff

off my plate to really go all in on my rankings, on my draft plan, my draft guide. And I think it's the best it's ever been. I feel like I have an amazing grasp on my rankings this year. And I think, I think, you know, it was one of those, you know, you shave off a few hours here or there, but like, what really matters is going to be better off for it. Oh, no doubt, no doubt, because I'd get into these patterns where I'm working 16 hours a day. And, you know, I'm catching myself staring off into the distance, staring into space for like, you know, like 20 minutes. I'm like, what the hell am I doing over here? I got to get back to the task at hand.

And now I'm just pulling back a lot of the tasks, basically. Really, for me, I'm now down to the brass tax, if you will. the National Football League following that for fake football, basically. But I will say it'll be a little bit more work during the season because we'll have so much to go over on a weekly basis. But I am really looking forward to just settling into that groove where, you know, going to do the column where I cover everything. But the props, I'm all about the props.

I cannot wait to crush the props this year. Well, you crushed it last year. You crushed it the year before that. So yeah, absolutely. Yeah, it's going to be a lot of fun. And if you go over to fantasy points.com, use promo code score more. It's going to save you 10% off a subscription. What do you get with that?

You get the guru's draft plan article. You get Scott's draft plan article. Oh, by the way, DFS content, college fantasy football, dynasty, redraft, props, you name it. It's all there at fantasy points.com. Do what I do. Sign up today, fantasy points.com. use promo code score more because listen we can't give it all away for free we got a

john's got this beautiful new home he's got to pay for down here folks so we got to like please help us out here subscribe uh and also go over to that youtube channel subscribe like comment that's the big thing guys comment on the videos we'll get back to you got a question comment on the damn video like you're watching this right now a clip on youtube comment we'll subscribe you know we're in we're going to come back and talk to you but what i want to do today fellas is kind of combined two of the best minds in the industry. And let's just have a conversation about, you know, our draft day strategies, every position.

We're going to talk about quarterbacks, you know, do we wait forever or do we want to invest early? Running back. Is this the year to go first round running back? Wide receiver. It's as deep as ever. Speaking of deep as ever, the tight end position. We've never seen this many viable options.

And then we're going to end things with some players we want to walk away from drafts with and maybe some players we're shying away from. So as we get into it, here, guys. John, let's start with you. The quarterback position, it's something that you have nailed over and over again throughout your career. You always have a guy, it seems, every year that you're like, this is my guy. I'm hanging my hat on him. And it's no different this year. You got a few names. Last year was bad. Last year was bad. It was a horrible year. Let's just get that out of the way. Last year sucked. The year before that, all my guys came through. Sorry.

It was so bad you had to leave the state of New Jersey. They kicked you. They said, John, you're gone. We can't have anymore. But let's talk a little about the guys you do love being, you know, Jordan Love is a guy who you've been high on. You called the Summer of Love. And in Chicago, the number one overall pick, Caleb Williams, he's already showing out this year. You got him in your rankings, John's redraft rankings at the site. If you just want his top 12, he's got Caleb Williams at number 11 right now. So you got him as a starting fantasy QB. So let's talk about a little bit about Jordan Love here. Why do I love him so much? Well, I mean, I, we were just talking off the air two years ago. I think I was a big Joe Burrow guy coming out and I'm like, all right, guys, let's not overcomplicate this.

Joe Burrow is like seventh round pick. We all know is good. Maybe we probably have a little bit more confidence in Burrow compared to Love right now. But to me, they're kind of the same guy, very physically gifted. I mean, you could argue love is a little bit more physically gifted than Burrow, certainly. Maybe Burrow a little bit more cerebral. But they're studs. I mean, it's pretty obvious to me.

they fit my prototype i like guys who win from the pocket uh distribute the ball out there like a point guard and then you know when we need it you'll run 50 times a year let's say and you know maybe the touchdowns are a little fluky but that year i love burrow i think he had five on the ground love last year i was high on him uh he had four so we love the receiving core i love the continuity uh with matt lafleur i think they do a good good job of getting scheming guys open i think it's a pretty damn good scheme it's hard to argue with the results the depth of the receiver is amazing and just as i i hate to keep pointing out this damn video but i did this long form video last summer on our channel on jordan love added up all the pros

of the cons you know honestly the bigger factor was the schedule i'm like look at this schedule and boom it was good really good well guess what this year's schedule is also good. They got Philly to open. That could be a good matchup. Indy at Tennessee against Minnesota, the Rams, Cardinals, you know, Houston's D is good. Jacksonville ahead of their week 10 by. That to me looks like a good start. And that's one of my lessons. I know it's, it's almost kind of regressing in terms of the knowledge. Like, I'm reverting to strength of schedule analysis. But I think, I think it's important these days when you're looking for an edge because it's hard to find an edge these days, especially when guys don't play much in the preseason.

So Jordan Love isn't one of my guys, but I get it. I just had Sean Siegel on my podcast, School of Scott, and he said Jordan Love was his must draft quarterback. And so I dove deeper into it. I got some dank stats for you. You brought up the strength of schedule. I do a big series every year on the strength of schedule. I think I'd do it better than everyone else.

He has the league's, the positions most improved strength of schedule. It's worth in real terms nearly a full fantasy point per game more than what he averaged last year. That's how good it is. And what did he do last year? He ranked fifth among all quarterbacks and fantasy points per start. He got better as the season went along. He hit at least 17.5 fantasy points, eight of his last nine games, average 21.2. That was with Christian Watson missing a bunch of times.

time, Muskrave missing time, Jane Reed being banged up. Over that ladder stretch, top six and fantasy points per dropback, a week 11 on, here it is. First in touchdowns, first in passing yards, first in EPA per attempt. Lowest sacked interception ratio. The list goes on and on and on. The guy just, if you just want to say, hey, we saw it. The guys are already a superstar. Why isn't he being drafted like it?

He's being drafted as the, what, QB10, QB11? Yeah, I totally get it. Yeah, yeah. He was a QB1 last year all along. We just didn't know it. And for the detractors who point to that little lull, he had, what was that, starting around week four or five, and it was like a month long lull. And look, even I was like, uh-oh.

But guess what? He fought his way through it and played his way through it, which to me, forget about the fact that he had that lull, Patrick Mahomes had a freaking low a couple years ago. He did the same thing. They adjusted with the two high safeties. He fought his way through it. I feel like that's exactly what Jordan Love did. And now it's just a steady ascension, I believe we'll continue. I don't even think we've seen the best of Jordan Love just yet. Yeah. If you play around with the data suite and you look at that rough early season stretch that you're talking about, the offense transformed dramatically. You know, they were taking all these deep shots to Christian Watson with his gimpy hamstring and it wasn't working.

And then they just, you know, reduced the A dot, you know, had this wide receiver platoon. And they had an answer to the two high coverage and it just clearly worked. And he's stuck with that. And so I don't see them going back. I think it's just, you know, you found out what works best for Jordan Love. But there's even the potential that, hey, you add a healthy Christian Watson to the mix. Right. Bring back that deep game.

there is potential for even more than what he showed us at the tail end of last season where very few quarterbacks in fantasy could compete with that. Yeah. What I love about Jordan Love too is you can get him so late. I'm looking at the ADP on our site right now. He's like an end of the seventh, early eighth round pick. So you can just let the guys in your home league go and select Josh Allen in the second third round, Jalen Hertz.

And this is going to spin us Scott into something you talked about in your anatomy of a league winner column is, you know, waiting on the quarterback and you say you can almost wait and be like the last guy in your league. And historically, it's shown you can still win your league with that because we know home leaguers. They want to get that edge. Maybe there's some guys who aren't too sharp in your league, but they know the names of the quarterback. They know who Patrick Mahomes is. They know who Josh Allen is. And at the right price, if those guys fall, I'm all for drafting Josh Allen. I just took him in the fifth round of the King's Classic last weekend. That's a 14 team league. But he fell past ADP, so it was a good get.

Wow. It's week three of Canadian tires early Black Friday sales. These prices won't go lower this year. Maybe too long. Freezing. Save up to 50% November 20th to 27. Conditions apply, details online. Now, what do you think about, you know, with these home leagues and just saying,

screw it, wait. And then I know you got a guy you love in Jane Daniels if you wait long enough for these home leagues. Yeah. So I just want to say, you have my permission to draft a Josh Allen or maybe even Jalen Hertz who ranks higher than Alan in our fantasy point per game projections this year. That might be because projections are Chris Wecht is an Eagles fan. He promises me it's not, but that is the case.

I'll say in a 10-team league, you know, that might even be optimal. Probably not. That's not what I do, but you have my permission to go that route. And if you read my draft plan or John's draft plan or both, we're going to give you enough league winners in the middle rounds to more than make up for that. Alan obviously outscored the next closest quarterback by over two fantasy points per game. He's finished first in fantasy points per game in each of the last three seasons. So that's highest end production.

It's predictable production. You have my permission. But I'm not going that route for the reasons outlined in anatomy of a league winner. One, it's opportunity cost. Two, it's just really not that impactful of a position. the quarterback position is the deepest. It is the least scarce. It has the most parity. Even when you do hit on a late round league winner, it's really not that impactful. Like Lamar Jackson, one of my all-time calls, was betting him to win MVP that year, was all in.

He really didn't move the needle in the way that some of the other wide receivers and running backs did. But what I do, or I should go on too, is like, don't underestimate your floor in these leagues. Even if you literally draft zero quarterbacks, you're going to be fine. And I know that sounds insane to people, but you're going to be fine. Like look at streaming results. So J.J. Zacharison, who gave me my start in the fantasy football industry, he has this podcast called Living the Stream, where he gives out a different streaming quarterback recommendation.

So it's any quarterback below a 50% roster ship rate. He just picks the best one each week based on math. matchup and you can't hold anyone over 50% and just his results since 2015 QB8, QB6, QB6, QB 10, QB7, QB15, QB12, QB9, QB 13. So at worst, fringe QB1 production, but more often than not, mid to low end QB1 production, and he's putting in himself at an inherent disadvantage. He's not allowing himself to hold on to one of these guys who like establishes themselves. Like he could have, you know, theoretically or

streamers could have picked up Jordan Love in week 10, where he was owned in only like 40% of leagues. From week 10 on, overall QB3 or Joe Flacco in QB 13, week 13, he was QB2 across the final four weeks of the fantasy season. And you see this every year. You see these UDFA tier quarterbacks break out, put up mid to low end QB1 production. Or again, you could just stream. So your floor is massively high. So I don't go the early quarterback route. What I typically do is just every year I have my cheap league winner and like no surprise. It's almost always a young guy who runs. That was, you know, 2019 Lamar Jackson. It was Jalen Hertz a year or two after that. It was Justin Fields after that. Last year was Anthony Richardson. I think that was a good process.

Didn't work out due to injuries. But this year, it's Jaden Daniels. And I just feel so good about QB11 to 1380P on every major site, including the Sharpe. including like FFPC. He's just going so late on Yahoo and NFL and ESPN where you see this lull. So like teams will draft their first 11 quarterbacks. And then there's typically like a three round lull because, you know, they know better than to start drafting backups. And so he's going in that lull.

So he's, you could reach multiple rounds and he's going to pay off that ADP. Why do I love him? Again, he runs. He was awesome in college. he averaged 40 fantasy points per game last year in his Heisman winning season. That ranked second best of any power five quarterbacks since 2016. Fantasy points per dropbacks, same thing. Second best since 2014.

He's in the perfect offense. Cliff Kingsbury's fast-paced up-tempo offense is going to rank top three in plays per game, maybe top three in dropbacks per game. He's not afraid to let his quarterbacks run wild. Kyler Murray averaged, what, 25.8 fantasy points per game, 8.3 rushing attempts per game in 2020. And it's just like a perfect storm where like even if he's terrible, he's going to be awesome for fantasy.

We saw Justin Fields, right? But here's the thing. I think he's going to be awesome. And he runs. And he's in the perfect offense. So this is my Exodia quarterback this year. This is my all in guy. This is my must draft guy.

John, I know we've butted heads on some of these Konami quarterbacks over the years. But I feel really good about this one. I also am very high on Jane Dandals. You know, I'm in year 30 here. I'm pulling, pulling in three decades of quarterback evaluations. Obviously, things have evolved. I've been here for the entirety of that with the second reaction quarterbacks and all that. I think he is a very, very good prospect.

And look, he's already showed it in the preseason. The dime he dropped to Diamondy Brown in the opener. The touchdown scamper was certainly easy. well in the second one. But I like Caleb Williams more. I have Daniels at QB12, which is well, not well, but over the market. I have Caleb, though, at QB11. And let's just compare and contrast. Let me outline my concerns about Caleb. Number one, good point about Cliff Kingsbury. You know, it's a heavily schemed offense where it's seemingly pretty simplistic and, you know, I was just kind of plug a guy in there and it's all right.

But I started calling him fall off a cliff Kingsbury because the offenses do tend to tail off. I think we've got, you know, as this season progresses, I think we've got serious pass protection issues here in D.C. And certainly Jane Daniels protected himself pretty well in the preseason, but let's be real, when the bullets are flying for real for all four quarters in a tight game, he's going to probably take off and run. We all know that. Maybe he has a last resort, but he puts his body at. big time risk. The receiving core is and look my my takeaway from coming out of this weekend and over the last seven days to 10 is I'm drafting terra McLaurin because my man is going to get peppered

with targets because I thought John Dotson was was going to be you know back in business this year. Well, we're almost out of business based on the way everything's going. So I mean maybe Diamie Browns and I sleeper nowadays but look at this. Dotson, Zakias, Jameson, Crowder. Diami, Luke McCaffrey made a play I just saw watching the game back. It's a little scary. I think Ben Sinat has shown well, but look, he's just a rookie. I don't know how much we can count on him. I'm sure Zach Hertz will be leading away.

He'll probably be the tight end nine after week four getting the ball from Daniels. And then the running game isn't all that great either, obviously. So I think there's a fair amount, Scott, that can go wrong, compared to that to what we're seeing from Caleb Williams here, it's good. You know, he fought his way through a couple of, you know, so-so series in the second preseason game made it really great off-script type of play, but seems like he's reading the field pretty well. Body language is unbelievable.

You know me, I've been talking about this forever. Justin Fields' body language from day one, and I started talking about it, the rookie year in the preseason. I'm like, this is awful. Caleb Williams polar opposite, good vibes, all that stuff. I just think Caleb, Scott, is safer than Jaden Daniels. I mean, that might be true. To me, it's the same thing I did arguing Lamar in 2019 or Justin Fields two years ago

where like you have all these concerns. Well, what about the receiving court? Yeah, the receiving court in Washington looks rough. What about this? My answer to all those always is it doesn't matter if he run. and he's going to run. And so everything on top of that is just gravy. But I'm with you too.

I like Caleb Williams a lot. It looks like an impossible to fail situation. They might have the best wide receiver trio and football. And then on top of it, he's supposed to be this generational talent and watching the preseason. He looks the part. And so absolutely could be the case. Like what really is the difference this year between him and C.J. Stratt, you know, amazing weapons.

I'll take Caleb Williams over Stroud 10 times out of 10. Oh, okay. At their ADPs, I'll do it every time. Okay, right, right. And so it's just we haven't seen it yet with Caleb, but, you know, who was the more pedigreed prospect coming out? It was it was Caleb. So, and he runs too, by the way.

Don't underestimate that. He's a little bit of a runner. So big time. I definitely get it. You know, Jane Daniels is my all-in guy, but you keep naming a bunch of quarterbacks. I am high on. There's a tone of depth here. quarterback too. If you want to wait, you know,

exactly. It goes back to what we were saying. First four. Yeah. I mean, look, I'm all in. If you want to take Kyler Murray later in your draft, you want to wait and get Dak Prescott, you know, we talked about Jordan Love, uh, all those guys. Would I love Anthony Richardson to fall to me at the right spot in a draft? Of course. But I wonder

if he's going to start creeping up because that hype is so real, uh, that people are going to reach for him maybe as like the QB3, QB4 and a lot of home leagues over the next two weeks. But I will say this real quick on, on him, real quick, you know, doing all those exercises here for our channel and the site, drafting from this position and all that. I did find myself, and because I'm really trying to narrow down my quarterback targets

this year, AR is one of them, though, but only if I'm quote unquote stock, you know, but I have found that if you're drafting at the end of round one, when you get into that like late fifth round range, he does. based on the flow of the draft and the player pool, I found myself taking AR there and not taking, not waiting on Jordan Love. I don't want to take Jordan Love in every single damn draft. But I'm just saying for those who are wondering,

you might find if you're picking at the end of round one, that you'll get to that fifth round. You're like, you know what? I don't really love the other skill players here. And there's Anthony Richardson. You made a great point here. I've drafted from that spot a ton so far. and you need someone to put you over the top because if you're drafting back at 10, 11,

12, you don't have, you know, Bijan, you don't have C and C. You don't have Tyreeks. So you need someone to make up those points for you. You know, it's nice to have, you know, I don't know, Brock Purdy averaging, you know, 17, 18 points a game, but Richardson can win you weeks. And that's what we really need in fantasy football. Richardson averaged the most fantasy points per four full quarters of any quarterback ever, led the league and fantasy points per dropback last year, like massive league wrecking potential.

But this goes back to, you know, what we're saying, like, why pay up for a quarterback when like, look at all these attractive options and how deep it is. Joe Burroughs QB8 on NFL.com, he averages 23.3 fantasy points per game over his last 25, full games. Only Josh Allen ranks ahead of that. Since 2020, Kyler Murray ranks third among all quarterbacks and fantasy points per game ahead of Lamar Jackson. You could even bring up Doc Prescott, who after the team's by where they shifted to

a far more pass-heavy approach ranked behind only Josh Allen and fantasy points per game. So you can make a case for any of these names, and it looks so deep. So that's part of why I like Jaden Daniel so much is he's also the cheapest of this tier, but he's also one of the biggest values according to my rankings. Let's take a time out right here. Then we'll come back, talk about a position that's not so deep. That's the running back position. Don't go anywhere, folks.

We're so glad you're with us. It's the Fantasy Points podcast. This Giving Tuesday, Cam H is counting on your support. Together, we can forge a better path for mental health by creating a future where Canadians can get the help they need when they need it, no matter who or where they are. From November 25th to December 2nd, your donation will be doubled. That means every dollar goes twice as far to help build a future where no one's seeking help is left

behind. Donate today at camh.ca.ca slash giving Tuesday. All right, welcome back in everybody. Brian Drake, the guru John Hanson, Scott Barrett from FantasyPoint.com talking about our draft day manifesto. We're kind of empty in the notebook here. We want to get you guys ready. These next two weeks are the biggest weeks in fantasy. It's when all the drafts go down and people keep hitting me up. What do you, what do I do with running back? What do I do with quarterback? Should I wait? Do you like this guy? Just sit back and relax folks put those earbuds in turn it up uh what's the old thing john you're an old dj turn it up and break the knob off uh i don't know if i've ever heard of that one uh it's an old cheesy rock

station here in syracuse to say that yeah no i didn't go that far i was very conversational when i was a dj guy i tried to be at least you know what i mean like i wasn't like fake radio announcer guy voice although every once in a while it's hard to not do that when you're when you're talking over like a really good song, you know, sometimes like, come about you. But I was a little bit more conversational. That's cool. Well, let's have a conversation about the running back position because listen, it's fantasy football. I've said this for years. The lifeblood of fantasy football is the running back position. It's the greatest currency that you'll ever have even in terms of trades. Everybody in a home league. And if you're listening to this, you're probably a big home league player.

You need running backs. Okay. Scott's article, his draft plan, he talks. about, listen, first three picks at a draft, he's fine with going CMC, Bejohn, Brees. John and his draft plan talks about the running backs that he likes. And he even goes a little further in the first round with guys like Jonathan Taylor, Jemir Gibbs. So guys, I did a draft 14 team or last week. I just referenced it. I had the 102. I took Bejohn Robinson at the 102, passed on CD, passed on, you know, Tyreek, all those guys. And I said, no, I want Bejohn. I think he's going to be next year's 101. So why don't I just draft him now before he has the big breakout season in Atlanta. So Scott, let's start with you a little bit on, you know, hey, don't be afraid to take

one of these three guys in the top three picks of your draft. Why do you want people to set the rosters up that way? Yeah. So I talk a lot about the shifting landscape, the shifting running back landscape, how the running back position is now more devalued now than ever before. It's, there's the rise of the committee backfields. There's a decline in running back. talent where recent running back draft classes have really been overshadowed by the wide receivers. There's a scarcity of Belkow running backs. But all this does is it just further enhances the value of these top three running backs with quote unquote legendary upside, the potential to break leagues.

Running back is far and away. Highest end running backs are far and away, the most valuable commodity in fantasy football. You saw that last year. teams that had Christian McCaffrey made it to the finals on ESPN 59% of the time. That was more than double the next closest round one pick. And so that's what I'm doing is, you know, the top three players and the draft for me are all running backs. I have it a little differently than you. I think Christian McCaffrey, Breeze Hall, and then Bison Robinson, but still that's where I have it.

I think you could win with either approach if you wanted to gravitate towards the safety of wide receivers. I think I'll have enough mid to late round values for you that you can win either way. But that is my preferred route to go. And luckily on a lot of these sites, as you are seeing that third running back fall to the six spot or the seven spot. But if I do go this route, I am generally waiting a bit more on my RB2. I'm probably not taking a running back in the second or third round. Yeah, my take, as we've discussed here on the pod,

but we can certainly reiterate it. And it's somewhat fluid, but number one you know every year's different you know I haven't been into the running backs especially last year last year was my 29th year in this business and by far the least interested I've ever been in running back in the entire 29 year run there I'm kind of back this year because last year baby we're back bruce hall was coming off the ACL bejean was a rookie for farty Smith, you know, Gibbs was relatively unproven. Of course, obviously had not played. And of course, Jonathan Taylor was in the middle of an epic holdout. So I'm like, yeah, no, no, no, screw this.

I almost I must curse there with the F bomb. But no, I didn't. But, you know, this year we have four very appealing options in these four, JT, Gibbs, Brise, and Bejohn. And yeah, to Scott's point, Like they stand out big time because they're like maybe not Gibbs, but they're bell cow guys, man, big time. And Gibbs, I'll make an exception because he's in such a great situation there for the lions. I know they've got Dave, Montgomery and all that. But, you know, I'm still in with Jemir Gibbs. I also think that the elite wide receiver group is smaller this year. Lamb Hill Chase.

I mean, they're obviously hard to pass up. Jefferson I think we've got some issues here I'm on Ra look he's he's very very good you know AJ Brown and Garrett Wilson are I don't know they're they're good but Garrett Wilson let's say him you know like Aaron Rogers goes down again we're screwed again so you know I don't think there's as much appeal whereas I think we're all looking at this sweet spot of wide receivers and by the way run a back just completely falls off a cliff this sweet spot of wide receivers third fourth, fifth round, sixth round, even seven, it keeps going, really. But it's a really, really good spot here.

So adding it all up, I'm back in on running back. I will even say, guys, too, like, I am a little bit more about balance this year. I'm even into, because Jordan Love, thanks to Jordan Love, he's my number one target. I know I can wait a little bit longer than most. I might even take that second running back in round five. and Kenneth Walker to me is a really, really good one. But let me just circle back real quick. As I did that drafting from one, drafting from three exercise,

the only thing that gave me pause was I actually liked Derek Henry this year. And I do think he'll deliver very good results. So I found myself at the, if I'm picking, let's say, at two, I'm like, you know what? I'm going to go Tyreek here or three, whatever, because I feel pretty good that I'll get Derek Henry back. And I do like that start. I'm not trying to contradict myself.

But for me, let's just say it this way. Once Lamb, Hill, and Chase are off the board, I am all about, all about these four running backs that I call the flawless four. And hopefully I'm not cursing them by calling them the flawless floor. But they're all relatively young, relatively durable, and very versatile. So that's what I'm looking for. I'm surprised to hear you say you're in on Derek Henry. because I know I am, but I've been getting beaten up by Ryan Heath.

You were forever always, you know, the premier ageist in the industry. And now maybe Ryan Heath has picked up that mantle. Yeah, yeah. Check out his column on age curves. But yeah, he should be on trial for elder verbal abuse and ageism. So he has attacked me every step of the way. But I love Derek Henry. I think I think I could see him getting 18 rushing touchdowns easy.

He led the league in carries last year, had really good efficiency. He was a productive fantasy option despite playing only 53% of the snaps, being on one of the worst offenses in football. His archetype is someone who really needs positive game script. Guess what? You're going to the team that had the best and the most positive game script last year that loves to pound the rock, especially inside the red zone. Having Lamar Jackson there is such an efficiency cheat code.

Baltimore's ranked top two and running back yards per carry every season. Lamar has been there with scrubs, with backups because JK Dobbins can't stay healthy. Gus Edwards can't stay healthy. And so, yeah, I can see him being a superstar this year, especially in half point PPR standard leagues. You know, and the one word that I'll use to explain away my Derek Henry take, it also explains away my bad overall take on Derek Henry. I hated Derek Henry coming out.

granted i was correct for a couple of years but very incorrect and i could say the same thing about austin ecler which sounds damning to me but guess what one word describes both players outliers that's why i i'm was wrong basically uh because they were major outliers they're just different like derrick henry i always say can i take my running back and plop them in NFL football in 1988 and be fine. That's absolutely the case with Derek Henry. You know, for what it's worth, a guy like Najee Harris, I know he's boring,

but that guy's available. Derek Henry's available. You know what I mean? He's just a different cat. Like I'm not worried any other running back almost. I'm worried about the age and it had fallen off a cliff. But Derek Henry's just different. He's just a different cat.

It was rough for me in 2019, 2020. I was like, yeah, sorry, I just don't draft running backs this early when they don't catch passes. It just didn't matter for Derek Henry. He was one of the best pure runners in NFL history, clearly. Well, let me bring this guy up then because, listen, if we're talking upside, you're Mr. Upside wins championship, Scott, guru, you're Mr. Young ascending talent.

Well, it's all there for one Devon A. Chan in the second round, but you want to talk about availability. My name is not Devon A. Chan. I mean, you look at didn't play in week one, missed weeks, you know, six through nine, actually six through 12 because they had a buy and then he got he playing hokey pokey the lineup and he's back in 11 he's out in 12 but these monster weeks are so tantalizing the guy averaged 17.3 points in the ppr we know the offense is pretty condensed it's you know it's two guys we're just getting the ball in the back field they don't throw the ball that many guys now they're splitting them out wide a little bit if i'm looking it upside in the second round and scott let's throw it us to you i'm like wow this guy has like game breaking talent. I'm just scared to death that he's only going to play six weeks out of the season because he's a fragile guy.

I remember he was small when I saw the highlights of him coming out of A&M. So like, boy, do I want to pull the trigger on him? Yes. But like I've got major reservations pulling me away from Devon A chain. Like pull me off the ledge or push me over, which way you take him here with A. Yeah. So I'm high on him, but I don't know how high on him I am. I've had him at one point as high as RB5 in my rankings.

I think right now he's RB8. But I've just been moving that around nonstop since my article, since before my article dropped. And so, yeah, I'm the upside guy, right? But I'm also the inventor of weight. The Belcal guy. I'm the Belcal guy, the inventor of weighted opportunity. And so it's tricky. You have this player, you have the most efficient rookie season, not just rookie season,

the most efficient season ever, absolutely insane what he was capable of doing. You do worry about the BMI, the ability to stay healthy. The counter argument to that is that he bulked up this year, this offseason. It was the first time he was ever able to bulk up because don't forget he was a track star in college. So he was never able to focus fully on football. So you hit the weight room. He bulked up. His conditioning is supposedly amazing.

But then you have Mike McDaniel, who is always running back by committee guy, sometimes brutal three-way committee backfields, even when you have a Rahim Mosterd in his prime leading the league in yards per carry. That's a case. But pre-draft, my guy, Danny Kelly, of the ringer, who I think is one of the best running back film evaluators out there told me that pre-draft. This is the Tyreek Hill of running backs. He is the potential to break the game. And then we both concluded, may God have mercy on our souls if he lands in Miami. He lands in Miami. Miami's best beat writer, Trey Wingfield, I think that's his name, was on his podcast,

said something to the effect of, this is a superstar. This is the next Christian McCaffrey. I haven't seen anyone like this outside of Tyreek Hill. I think he's going to be Miami's, there's a chance he could be Miami's number three receiver this year. If you look at ass, which I don't want to dive too deep in the details, but we got some really cool separation data. Love it. Coming out on fantasy points data very soon. Elite by separation data led the position in usage from the slot, 33% for him.

No one else was over 22.5%. And all these different factors is just like, I think he could break leaks. Like he may only need 15 touches per game to be the overall RB1. And it's like, why wouldn't he get more than that? And just that tantalizing potential is so insane and why I've just been, you know, running myself in circles. But yes, ultimately am high on him, but I do fully get the concerns. Yeah, I mean, not to whittle this down to just bear minimum basics, but, you know,

I just don't have a warm and fuzzy feeling drafting guys at like 25 overall who are big play dependent, even if they are, I'd run it back, even if they are the best big playbacks in the damn league. It just seems a bit much. I'm looking right now. I've got Devon A. Chan with 5.2 yards of carry on basically 10 carries a game, 180 touches. you know, I'm baking in some time missed.

I think that's fair. 14 games played, so three games missed. You know, it's just the numbers just don't add up for me when I work in other volume type guys. Guys that I'm not even that high on as players, Isaiah Pacheco, for example, the aforementioned Derek Henry, my guy Rashad White. It's hard. I'm not even not into White this year, but I am giving them 300 touches, even though maybe Bucky Irving has something to say about that and gets a little bit of a roll.

I still think Rashad gets 300 touches. It's hard to compete with 300 touches. You've got to rip off a long run almost every week, which is kind of what he did last year. So it's a little scary. But the other elements are the availability concerns. I generally don't like running backs gaining weight, although it seems to be doing better lately with that. Like the aforementioned Rashad White last year told me he gained weight in an effort, muscle weight to withstand the pounding. And that kind of worked, you know. We also have Jalenright.

And again, not to suffer paralysis by overanalysis because if you're good, you're good. Devon A. Chan's good. He's going to be out there and all that. But man, Jailen Wright does look pretty darn good. So you got to bake that in a little bit that McDaniel may start working him into the mix and making that a three-headed monster. Yeah. And preseason usage wasn't super encouraging. You did see him line up out wide and make a sick catch, but he was playing deep. into that game with the second string offense really seemed like Rahim Moser, it was the clear RB1, which is also what McDaniel has said. He said a month or two ago.

He said it all starts with Rahim as our leadback. That's not encouraging. I do have one stat for you. And this was the stat that like really kind of, I think this is right. I tweeted this out and immediately moved him all the way up to RB5. I've since moved him down. But check this out. So Jemir Gibbs once David Montgomery,

returned in week 10 throughout the remainder of the season versus Devon A chain in games Mostert played and A chain played at least seven snaps, right? Okay. So it's just like when when both running backs are healthy and on the field. Right. Jemir Gibbs versus Devon A chain, 11.8 carries to 11.7 carries per game, 4.2 to 4.2 targets per game. 3.8 red zone opportunities to 3.8 red zone opportunities per game. So, you know, This was a committee backfield for Gibbs, too, that everyone's excited about. They're all excited about past coaching potential, too. But the volume at the end of the day wasn't too different because, you know, Miami loves

to pound that rock. Yeah. But who's the more efficient option, too, on a per touch basis? But again, I think he's tricky. He's one of the trickiest players in all of drafts right now. What a lead back to you here? We used to have this thing in fantasy called the Dead Zone, right? and we would all do podcasts about it and go,

you can't draft running backs from rounds, I don't know, whatever is, four to six and blah, blah, blah, blah. I think that Dead Zone has really shifted a lot later. Maybe it's just the way that ADP has fallen, but I think there's some good values in that, you know, fourth, fifth, six round at running back. Say you do what we said earlier in the draft.

You take a running back early in the first. Then let's hit a couple of receivers. Boom, boom, second, third round. You can come back later. You just mentioned Rahim Moster. You just mentioned David Montgomery. Who else is in there? Javonte Williams, Devin Singletary. I think some of these guys are really good RB2 options that you can get later on that you don't have to start maybe a draft RBRB.

I want to talk a little bit about this middle round dead zone or not. Like I think if you go later on in the 70s and 80s and you're looking at the Zemir White's of the world and, you know, guys like that Zeke Ellie, Gus Edwards, I don't want anything to do with them. But what do you guys feel about that kind of fourth, fifth, six round guys you're going to select as your RB2, John? Well, I think it's kind of a dead zone for me in the third round for what it's worth. Josh Jacobs, Pacheco, not that into, even my guy, Rashad White, although he's got his early fourth. I do like James Cook, although he's not cheap in the fourth.

I mentioned Ken Walker, was not into Ken Walker last year, but he fits my criteria, basically, barely. He's young. He's generally durable. Maybe I'm stretching it. there and he is versatile he is pretty dangerous in the passing game another dead zone i see is is around that fifth six i and i'll be i could be wrong again on james connor i just i just can't do it i cannot do it i do not like dandre swift at all i know he's their guy and they're

paying him but i i don't know if he's going to be the goal line back i don't think he'll have maybe a solidified role as a goal line back they'll work in others like rochon i'm not I'm not even sure he's going to be the third downback. I don't know what is. I mean, I guess he's the early down back for sure, the lead guy. I'm not feeling it. Yeah, it does kind of fall off a cliff. So it's kind of, to me, like,

I'm either going to get that one anchor running back and not worry about it for a while. Or I'm going to go with the two running backs. And then I'm not getting my third for a long-ass time either. So I'm in all the running backs, but only to an extent, I'd say. Okay. What about you, Scott? Yeah, I don't think dead zones are real because I legitimately genuinely believe every season is its own unique special snowflake.

Like what if what if Bijon Robinson was in the dead zone range that you, that's no longer a dead zone. That's your must draft Bejan range. So I'm sure there is a dead zone. It's just read my draft guide and it's, uh, it's just dead for me because the players going off the board. I don't like. That's all.

Exactly. No, that's how I viewed as well. But you see all this research diving into like macro history. historical data, never draft a running back in round six through eight because the last five years, there's never blah, blah, blah. So I'm with you. I think it's interesting you mentioned Kenneth Walker. And so historically, John, when there is a player I like and you don't like or a player you like and I don't like, we're batting 50-50. You know, it's just 50-50 across the board. When there's a player you and I both like, we're batting a thousand. Rashad White last year, we were all in on him

as their must draft running back that really worked out well for us a number of other players like that uh and so i like to hear that we're aligned on kenneth walker i was worried this was just like personal bias but i was saying months ago that i think there's a chance that kenneth walker is an every down bel cow back i think he's one of the most underrated running backs in football this is maybe some bias from my prospect models that like thought he was a generational runner that thought zach charbonnet was massively overrated you said you said you you think there's upside to him as a pass catcher. You think he's underrated there.

I can't agree more. But that's a hot take. Like in the Twitter streets, people think he sucks as a pass catcher. And Zach Charbonnet is amazing when, guess what? Kenneth Walker had more receiving yards on like five fewer targets than Charbonnet last year. And what have you heard through training camp?

I know you're a big vibes guy, John. Is there better vibes than any other running back? It's off the charts. It's, oh, this guy's going to get the ball a ton. We like him as an every down player. We think he's underrated as a pass catcher. We want to get him the ball in space, blah, blah, blah. He's going to have a huge year.

And so I'm worried I'm just triple counting things now because I was kind of already baking that in to start. But yeah, I'm with you. I'm really excited about Kenneth Walker. I think this offense also takes a big step under Ryan Grubb. And most people are suspect that's going to be in the passing game. But don't discount what he's done with like nobody running backs when he was at Washington.

and don't discount the fact that the head coach, a former defensive coordinator is like old school and all he's talking about is wanting to pound the rock. So yeah, I'm with you. I envision a big year for Kenneth Walker. Keep in mind that this regime, well, Zach Charbonnet, let's just go to Zach Charbonnet. I thought he was kind of a jag.

I mean, let's be honest. Again, this regime did not draft Charbonnet. I thought he would be a little bit better. I wasn't a big Charbonnet guy last year, but I did, I thought he would be better. And maybe he was hurt. He kind of was a jag. So what are we looking at here? New staff coming in.

Is Charbonne going to force Walker off the field? Maybe a little on third down. Kenny McIntosh. I mean, yeah, Ken Walker is, he's got to be in the 275 to 300 touch total here if he plays 15 games this year. So very good ROI, very good pick as an RB2. And the reason we don't talk much about Ken Walker, too, is I don't think people know enough about Ryan Grubb in this system. I think they still have this perception that Pete Carroll's there and it's still this kind of old system. You know, they don't get covered a lot.

They don't have great beat reporters in Seattle. They're on the West Coast, so nobody talks about them. They practice late in the day. But yeah, I love it, guys. By the way, in that King's Classic draft, again, 14-teamers, here's my running backs. Bejohn, Ken Walker, Rahim Mostert. Love it. 14 team league.

I'll take that any day of the week. Well, what else I'm going to take any day of the week is a break because I got to go refresh my adult beverage. When we come back on the other side, let's talk a little wide receivers here, fellas, because once you get into the second round, there might be guys you look at and go, I'd rather have a fourth, fifth rounder than these guys.

Don't go anywhere, folks. Fantasy points, podcast. It's funny because people are listening to this at like 9 a.m. on a Monday. They're like, this guy's drinking already? Yeah, we record on a Saturday. John, I see people giving us crap here for when we record the podcast now. Like, what do you record this during the week? Like, what do you think we record five minutes before we put it out?

Like, relax. We get, take you behind the scenes of how podcasts are made. Unfortunately or fortunately, we're not really getting any information in the preseason anymore. None really. You know, especially this year. So the stuff is evergreen. But, you know, we'll certainly be doing a lot of different things with, you know, little very little turnaround like we'll do something and then it'll be up that day during the season or or the very next day by the way we should probably do start doing some some ask guru anything like live streams here really get into hardcore draft season yeah man love it so as we're rocking and rolling here on this kind of draft manifesto show we're gonna talk wide receivers here and listen first round we know the studs we just talked about them earlier in the show you know the the the the tyreek hill

the Justin Jeffersons and all that other world. But then you get into round two, okay? You took your stud in round one. Maybe it's running back. Maybe a receiver. You're going around two. And now we're like, all right, well, do I want to pull the trigger? Is Marvin Harrison Jr.

going to be a guy? Devante Adams, he's got Gardner Minchu as his quarterback. Drayton's never done it before in Atlanta. Chris Alave. I got to count on Derek Carr. A lot of question marks here, guys. And you can just go a few rounds later. And I'm like, shoot, give me, I like Jalen Waddle.

I like Cooper Cup, Malik neighbors, Devonte Smith. I mean, there's a lot of guys you can wait around on and get. I don't know, maybe that's just me. But I'm liking some of these later guys better than round two. And Scott, you've, you've kind of alluded to that in your anatomy of a league winner article. Yeah, that's right. I also talked to a, Abe Abbe Agbatoba, one of the best high stakes players in fantasy football history.

I was saying like one of the keys to FFPC drafts this year is like he feels. It feels like everything just comes down on who you take in rounds two through four. And it's like so tricky because that range just feels so incredibly flat. And I agree. You know, if you look at my draft guide, I have not a number of wide receivers ranking in the top 25 overall of my rankings who are going around four, going round six. And so it's weird. Yeah. It's like, do you take my, what is it?

wide receiver eight where I haven't ranked probably not when you can get him around later and you're still reaching around so you know you get him but you get that better value yeah yeah i mean i'm a little worried about some of these guys in that range as well but i do uh have put the flag down on um drake london i i do think they could be a little slow off the gate out of the gate here and off the mark uh with kirkie i guess not playing in the preseason schedule I looked at actually it's actually not wonderful so yeah round round two is a little tricky but I I kind of I guess to your point Scott I keep looking at the guys I'm really into and I'm like I kind of like these guys a little bit more than the guys going off the board in round number two

like like a lave you know I mean alave is in my article I mean on one hand he stands out you know he's a clear alpha dog here he's the he's the one there is no doubt about it and he's got a professional quarterback in dera car seems to seems like the vibes are okay but he's also he's also freaking derrick car so alave could get card as i say and then marvin harrison you know look i'll i'll take a chance on the big role and obviously his pedigree and all that but man i really like the third fourth rounders debo i'm i'm finding myself in the draft plan article i'm taking debo left and right because I'm seeing a little bit of an opportunity with Iuk's future, obviously up in the air. Couldn't.

And look, could come back to bite me a little bit. I guess if I, you doesn't go anywhere. I like DJ Moore, Michael Pittman, Devante Smith. So, yeah, it's a fine line between getting involved in, you know, this great wide receiver depth, but not going crazy, you know, with it either. And that's another reason why I'm a little bit more inclined. to balance it out, I would say ideally for me, a draft would start through five rounds. I've got only three wide receivers and I have a couple of running backs.

With the exception, maybe instead of having the two running backs, it's not a priority, not a lock. I have to have it. Maybe I go tight end. So that would be an alternative. Either three wide receivers and two backs or three wide receivers, one back, ideally an anchor guy like Bijan or Breece and then a tight end, a stud one, like maybe a Tray McBrott.

You know, it's funny is I keep referencing this drafted. Big industry draft your boy, J.J. Zacharisen was in it. Scott, I sat next to Jeff Redcliffe. I had that 102. You just mentioned my two starting wide receivers in that league. DJ Moore, Debo Samuel. So like all I did, everybody out there who wants to have a big draft in the next two weeks, you don't need a computer, right?

You don't need to sit there with a laptop. Go to FantasyPoints.com. Use code, score more. Save 10% off a subscription. Just download and print out that cheat sheet like I did. I had 13 nerds sitting around me with laptops. I'm the only guy, pen and paper, just cross the names off. Bing, bam, boom.

I don't need a laptop to tell me who'd have drafted. I can do it myself. And thanks to the guru rankings. We need that drop. I need the guru rankings, man. I had it. But you may not be a nerd, but you kind of do look like an old head out there. Good.

Fred Flintstone with your hard copy cheat sheet. I loved it. matter at all i'll sit there working that hangover i probably could have been half the guys in there's fathers to be honest uh but uh that that's the fantasy industry uh in 20 24 you mentioned tight end here let's transition to that is that we're already 55 minutes into this podcast here we're at a point now in fantasy football where oh my god the tight end is useful and last year uh i think we had there's something like six tight ends finish a double digit fantasy points per game Travis kelsey still a superstar i never find myself drafting

Travis Kelsey for whatever reason. You know, Trey McBride came on at the end of last season. He was a stud. Sammy Leporta, budding superstar in Detroit, maybe the reemergence of Kyle Pitts. So let's see, Scott, if you're doing a 12-team home league against your buddies, we'll call it half-point PPR, do you feel the need to have the advantage with an elite tight end like a Kelsey, like a Leporta, like a McBride? Or do you think, you know what, these guys on draft away they're, you know, pounded natty

lights in the corner, I can still win this league with Evan Ingram and Tird Ferguson and Dalton Kincaid a little later. Yeah, I wonder if some people reading my draft guide, which again, like, if you want to read just one thing and that's it, dominate your league. I think that's what you go with my draft guide, but you might feel ripped off with a tight end section where I was just kind of like whatever, you know, just do do whatever who cares. I said, plot out your perfect draft and and then find the right round to select a tight end, whichever tight end, and I have my rankings. I went with more than whatever, just so people know. In my article, I have way more than whatever. So maybe go with Johns or use them both in tandem. But just to talk about the historical

significance of the position and how impactful it is, historically, it's a position wholly without a middle class. I said it's one to two oligarch. ruling over a vast majority of peasants where you have peak Travis Kelsey or a few seasons from Mark Andrews, a few seasons from Darren Waller. Before that, it was Rob Grankowski. These oligarchs ruling over the peasants. And those oligarchs were massively valuable. You know, Kelsey was putting up mid-range wide receiver one production and outscoring, you know, the tight end three by like 40% in terms of fantasy points per game. So super valuable. Now, with Travis Kelsey age 35, his usage being diminished, you know, to preserve him, keep him healthy

for the postseason, I'm seeing a position without oligarchs, a position without these super valuable tight ends. But now there's an upper class of the position. And the upper class is incredibly deep. You know, most other analysts have it seven players deep. But like, I mean, if you want to dig into it, look at every tight end over their last seven games played last year, include the postseason. Evan Ingram was tight in one, 18.1 fantasy points per game. David and Joku was 17. point two. Uh, Jake Ferguson three, 15.5. You talk about Trey McRide. He, he was six, 14 fantasy points per game. And so Evan Ingram tied in eight by ADP, Jake Ferguson, tight end nine, David and Joku tied on 11. So maybe it's actually 11 deep. I don't, I don't know.

Now you have Brock Bowers, supposedly the greatest tight end prospect ever. You have Cal Pitts, you know, finally with a competent play caller. a quarterback. To me, it just feels deep. And so again, what I concluded with was whatever. The other positions are more impactful. I'm giving you league winners there and just sort of try and map out your perfect draft based on your draft slot and slide one of those tight ends in there or pick your favor. I will have to say in my, this is my 30th year, probably my most successful position has been tight end. That probably you, I mean, I, I was six to about 170, so I, I guess I wouldn't have been a tight end.

Maybe if I filled out, but if I had my dream come true athletically, I would have been a receiver. That was my skill set. I had very good hands and I could run. But I just have this closeness to the position, I think. You know, I'm like a very, very poor man's version of Kyle Shanahan, like just, just discouraged receiver who, you know, couldn't make it. But anyways, I agree that the depth is very good.

I haven't given up. I'm always, by the way, I again, some of the names, you know, like, I mean, I'm not even going back. I think kind of my first tight-end sleeper, I don't think I had one in 96 or five, was Wesley Walls. I believe it was 97 and I crushed it. I mean, he crushed it. He had like 10 touchdowns that year. Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham. I know I'm missing a couple there, big ones, but, you know, oh, Kelsey.

I mean, I was a freaking huge Kelsey guy. So I've had some great ones. And I'm still always looking for that. I don't see like great breakout guys, although pits and I got to be in again. I was incorrect last year. I felt good about the year before not biting. But he went down to like the sixth round. And the mistake was that, well, number one, we didn't know about the injury and how much

much of a residual effect it would have. But I fail to recognize like the two biggest roadblocks were freaking Artie Smith and Desmond Ritter and they were still there last year. Well, they're no longer there. I like Evan Ingram too. I'm always looking what I was trying to say earlier, the best of both worlds because I'm greedy. I always say I'm a greedy bastard at tight end.

I want to stud, but I want to get them at discount prices. So I always try and find that second or third tier guy. It's been rough, but Evan Ingram was on my list last year. He was one of my top four targets. I've been a Jake Ferguson guy from the beginning, if you've read my stuff and heard me on Sirius XM. He's actually the guy. I think he's kind of like my Jordan love of the quarterback position. And it works out to where many of the drafts, you can just load up on running backs and wide receivers until round seven and eight.

get love and Ferguson, I think that is actually the best way to form the best possible lineup. Because you're getting impactful starters, I believe, you know, in the seventh and eighth round when, you know, all the good running backs are long gone, all the good receivers are long gone. Because they're already on your roster. That's the point. So there's my, there's my thoughts on tight end. Yeah. Yeah, I like that shout out. And I talk about this in anatomy is that it doesn't really hurt you too much if you do decide

to punt the position. there's not much of a floor from the waiver wire, but there's a massive ceiling. We see this every year. These tight ends basically going undrafted. Yeah. Who turned out to be league winners. Last year it was like all the top five best tight end picks. You can make like Trey McBride, free off waitivers.

All these tight ends going so super cheap. I do have one must draft tight end, but it depends on the format. Probably not in your home league, but in like an FFPC, which is tight end premium, with Deep Bench, use promo code points for free $25 over at FFPC. We have a sponsorship with them. Oh, yeah. Would be T.J. Hawkinson. I know you're with me on Tyler Conklin.

Conklin's like my highest own tight end and best. Oh, he's my number one pick sleeper of the year from like literally February. I love it. And so like Tyler Conklin plus for the first six weeks plus T.J. Hockinson from then on, he could outscore Dalton, Kate and he's going what how many rounds later it is contingent upon you having the iR spot or the bench space but i really like that t j hawkinson basically tied for most for best among all tight ends in fantasy points per game last year uh really think that offense just runs through him uh against

too high and then justin jefferson against everything else it's one of the most uh prolific passing volume offenses and football. So I like it. What if you do that and then you find yourself Hawkinson's back week seven and you're like, you know what? I can only start one tight end. I know it's FFPC, but let go with it. And you're like, you know what? I'm actually going Conklin over a healthy Hawkinson. I think that's within the realm of possible outcomes. I am that high on Tyler Conn. Wow. Yeah. You can always trade a tight end, I think, in home leagues. You can't trade a quarterback. I see these guys all the time. They go, I'm going to, I got my homes and I'm going to have, you know, Anthony Richardson's my QB2 or some nonsense. You can never trade quarterbacks in

home leagues because, again, there's, everybody has a good one. But I think tight end, if you've got a T.J. Hawkinson, you can actually, you know, improve your roster somewhere because, you know, people are desperate because, you know, all the top 12 guys are going to be gone for, trust me. Yeah, that's true. I mentioned. I am worried about, obviously, the JJ McCarthy lost to me is a big part of this. You know, I'm not as high in Hawkinson, obviously. I was in on McCarthy. I was a believer. I was with Red Whitefield. I did have him at QB2, not one, but I was in, man. And it sucks. It sucks because we got to wait a whole freaking year on JJ McCarthy. Yeah. Some real, real late sleepers. You mentioned Conklin. I think Dallas

Goddard has a good year. If you look at what, you know, the Eagles, you know, new offensive of coordinator, Kellan Moore, is done. Throwaway his year last year. But his years in Dallas, I believe he's there six years. Every single year he had the top 12 tight end. That goes all the way back to Jason Freakin' Witten. So he always produces a tight end position. You mentioned Zach Ertz in Washington.

I think he starts out hot. Ben Sinot, though, like week three on the waiver. Later on, yeah. Colby Parkinson, maybe with the Rams. They're giving him the starters. You know what I actually warmed up to? And we were wrong on them last year, unfortunately. but chiggy i'm kind of looking at chiggy again well also because the deandre hopkins situation

like we're going to throw it more we can't rely on de hop the depth there at receivers and all that great i know his snaps and routes might be a little limited here but i kind of i'm back in on chiggy a little bit not not anything earth shattering i got him a tight end 21 his adp is 24 but i also like isaiah likely and i guess more importantly and correspondingly i am not in on me Andrews this year at all. I don't want Mark Andrews this year. Scott, do you have any thoughts on that? Yeah. Unfortunately, I have to move Andrews down a little bit. Like, I don't know that his rankings are going to change, but just like the priority target level. Because I was really high on him, but like the vibes on likely are out of control. Yeah. Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano,

Albert Breer all said the exact same thing. He's like, who is the number three receiver after Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers, it's Isaiah likely. Yeah, I've been on this for months too. I mean, if you've been listening to these pods, I mean, it's happening. Well, likely is one of my guys. I tweeted out that he had like, according to my prospect model is like, this is like a generational past catching tight end. And director of the senior ball Jim Nagy, a friend of the friend of fantasy points,

he replied to me like months later. And it was like, if it weren't like multiple teams had a round two great on him, but that combine killed him. And so you've seen it. You've seen it on the field. Like the talent is there. You get why the vibes are out of control. It's just unfortunate for him.

It's like a Dallas Goddard, Zachert situation where he's probably not going to be a real fantasy difference maker. And he might just be a Thorne and Mark Andrews side. But maybe a great dynasty stash for, you know, a couple of years from now or if something happens to Andrews who's getting up there in age yeah no doubt I mean I watched likely that was my first senior bowl actually about three years ago now dude was separating on the regular and uh I was also around him at the combine I got a is a good vibe with this guy he's like it's like an old school old soul type of guy like uh really really good I will throw out one other like really deep

one and this is the guy I did like last year and it didn't really work out but I look at the depth chart and I'm like I'm wondering aloud maybe he has a chance here in new Orleans like I like reshit she he last year but you know he made some plays but I don't know he's just kind of there A.T. Perry seems to be limiting the depth there at receiver is not good I know he's on PUP I don't know what the deal is but joan Johnson I thought you know if you're digging deep, you know, like 20 rounds, getting a third tight end, FFPC, I might throw Joanne Johnson out there. Yeah, you look how he finished the year.

Let's see, this was week 15 on. Joanne Johnson was really productive, 11.8 points, 14.8, 23 points. And then, you know, seven in the final week of the season, but that's week 18 doesn't matter for fantasy. So, yeah, Juan Johnson was helping people win fantasy titles last year. Good call on that, John. Like another guy. Carr, though, you know, because the year before, Joanne Johnson was really good, even longer, for a longer period of time, you know, and I do think Carr likes him and trust him,

but he also is Derek Carr. You could also screw him. But, yeah, I'm going to put my name behind that one. But again, we're talking 200, well over 200 picks in. You know who's sitting on my IR spot in that King's Classic League? Joanne Johnson. It's, John, it's like we're sharing a brain here, brother. We're sharing a brain.

Yeah. Let's talk quickly before we get out of here. I want you guys to give me a player that you want to leave your drafts with and maybe a guy or two at ADP. You're just you're not into. You're walking past him. You're just like, I can't do it. I'll start. I'll say guys that I just can't draft right now, Devante Adams for me, especially in round two.

I don't trust the quarterback. It seems like they want to pound the rock a ton. He just had a couple of big games. They had to force feed him like 20 freaking targets in a game. I'm not in on Devante at all. Second guy, Zay Flowers. We mentioned, you know, the passing tree there. his a dots were microscopic.

It was like there were short handoffs there. So not in on Zayflowers at all. Somebody I do want to draft if I can get my hands on them all the time. I love at the end of that first round early second, I want to try to get my hands on Garrett Wilson. I know he's connected to Aaron Rogers. You know, if he gets, you know, trippy at an ayahuasca retreat and breaks his ankle and trips over a tree stump,

who knows. But I want to get my hands on him. I think he's going to have one of those seasons, Garrett Wilson, where he'll look like, CD Lamb from a year ago or all of a sudden it's like, oh my God, this guy is so elite and so good. Why didn't we have him ranked as a top five wide receiver? And next year, you know, if Rogers is there, he will be. So let's go with our guest here, Mr. Barrett.

Give me a guy you want to leave your draft with and someone you're shying away from. Yeah. Rishi Rice, it just, he's priced like he's going to be suspended for 15 games. We read my tweets over here, Scott. Come on. I don't, you got to be, you got to chill with that. You got to stop giving away the edge. to some of our subscribers.

So that, but that one's too obvious. So I was comfortable giving that one away. Player to avoid, there's so many of them. Like really, it's just anyone who wasn't mentioned in my article, just don't draft them.

But a player who stands out has to be Saquan Barkley for me. I think even if Philadelphia was like, hey, he can be our Christian McCaffrey. Let's use him as Christian McCaffrey. We have this amazing offensive line. You can't underrate, the impact of this Konami code quarterback, Jalen Hertz, his ability to vulture touchdowns

inside the red zone, how instead of just dumping the ball off to the running back, he's going to break off for a run. And that just really nukes your upside. Those are the high value touches. And I'm just not seeing a lot of those for Saquan Barclays, a top five running back in just about every site. So I would much rather draft a wide receiver there. Yeah. For me, we've talked a lot about some of these guys that you know there are different differing reasons uh i'm not taking kairn williams at 16 no no way no how that's a player that we were all taking at 207 overall this time last year i know i know everything's changed but 207 last year uh after the guy had played a league uh i think blake quorum is is more talented i think sam la porta is way too pricey at

20 overall. I do not like Josh Allen this year or Jalen Hertz. I have more concerns, especially with Allen, you know, Joe Brady is a little bit more of a running game guy. Obviously, you lost Stefan Diggs, Gabe Davis. The only guy to wide out to catch a ball from Allen is freaking Khalil Shakir, who I do like quite a bit. Yeah, I mean, I can keep going here. Josh Jacobs, for some reason, when he first signed there, I thought I'd be excited. I'm just not feeling it. I regret that third rounder. The data last year was not very good. He has kind of a one year deal, kind of a prove it situation.

Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Steph Diggs, same team, just not popping for me at all. It's like the opposite of popping. Cooper Cup. I just can't do it. And then Scott, we'll go back to Malik neighbors. And again, I don't know what it is with me changing in my old age here because I normally I'm all about guys like Malik neighbors. And I do fully recognize that he is an absolute stunt.

But 42, it just, it's not that bad in terms of the ROI, the upside. And it's not like a tragedy. If your fourth round pick doesn't pan out. But it's still too pricey for me. I just see more that can go wrong than can go right. Essentially with Daniel Jones, a bad O line. Brian DaBalls kind of shaky, not really impressed with Kafka. So your thoughts on Malik Neighbors at 42, 43?

I think this is a good one to end with because that's a player I'm reaching on. I just feel so good about it. I think there's like legitimately a 50-50 chance that neighbors outscores Marvin Harrison Jr. You want to talk about the situation? Like I get that Daniel Jones is terrible, but there's just so many targets up for grabs there. And it really seems like that's the game plan. It's just lock on to neighbors.

And so you can talk. talk about Daniel Jones. It is an accuracy, but like there's a 99% expected completion percentage on screens. And neighbors is this yak god, this tackle force machine. And so players like a Jamar Chase last year were averaging 3.5 fantasy points per game on screens. So I think he has that guaranteed floor with upside while being the bona fide wide receiver one. Beyond that, I really believe in the talent. Marvin Harrison Jr., obviously, an incredible talent as well. but you still have Trey McBride there. This is an offense that ranked bottom three

and pass rate over expectation last season. So I really don't see too much separating them in all honesty. I know that's a hot take, though. I will add, and hey, you know, this is just my opinion, obviously. But I am baking in, you know, I don't even know how to phrase it. Bright lights, Big City, Malik neighbors, that might not be an ideal mixture. I guess I'll say it like that.

Just based on some things that I've heard, like there's some downside there. Like things could implode there. And I could go well. It's like to say, not everybody can play for the Yankees, you know? Some guys get into the big city and it doesn't work out. I have,

so I have heard some things about his personality. But I kind of spun it in a positive way where he was like a very sort of greedy, get me the ball sort of guy and that's why you know BTJ as impressive as he was didn't see a tremendous amount of volume i think if you draft malik neighbors you know you have to get this guy the ball to keep him how happy but you're right things things could go south you know i said 50 50 proposition versus Marvin harrison junior but there's a really good chance it's week six someone's in my dms like hey a hole why do you think it was a good idea to draft the guy who's catching passes from

Daniel Jones who sucks so certainly a possibility but to me the risk reward I love neighbors yeah no I mean I I get it it's it's starting to keep me up at night a little bit because I'm the this is the type of guy that I and Brian you can attest to this probably more than Scott because you've been really following me like Malik neighbor this is the type of guy that I that I'm calling griffick nine times out of 10 he's gonna get steamed up into the third round I'm telling you I'm talking to guys again, I live in New York, so I drafted with a bunch of Giants fans, and I think he's going to go the second round in my home league, but I can

see situations out there where people are way in on him. If you don't get your hands on, you know, Marvin Harrison Jr., I think third round, Malik Neighbors is coming off the board to a ton of these home leagues. I don't think he makes it into the fourth anymore. I think those days are wrong. Let me make one final pitch to you, John,

because you're such a vibes guy. If you were counting training camp highlights, yeah, Malik neighbors at like 150, Greg Dorch is at like 87. Justin Ross is at like 69. And Marvin Harrison Jr. is at like 15? And why is Greg Dorch stealing the show?

I know it's, I know it's New York, bright lights, you know, way more exposure. But he looks awesome. He's having a killer camp by all accounts. Yeah,

you know who looked awesome there, catching the ball last summer? Darren Waller. I know. But hey, Daniel Jones locked on to him with his gimpy hamstring and all. So volume should be.

there at the very least yeah i know i know and look if if if evan neal can just not be a completely worthless pile of dog dirt then maybe they'll have decent enough protection for daniel's because andrew thomas i believe is an absolute stud uh left tackle but i guess evan neal's not even going to start a right tackle so it could be a moot point yeah week 15 john and i doing the podcast talking about drew lock throwing hospital balls up to Malik neighbors here, getting ready for the fantasy playoffs. Super fun time here, guys. Really appreciate the time. Scott, John, you're the best.

Love having you every single week as always. Folks, if you want even more of this in written form, go over to FantasyPoints.com. Use promo code score more. Get in so you can get the cheat sheets. Trust me, you got them for whatever your league is. Customize them. We got them there for you. You need the guru rankings.

We got them. You need Scott's Anatomy of a league winner article. It's there. draft plans, college fantasy football, dynasty props that the guru's all over. You're going to make the money back yet, spend in a subscription, just on the damn props guru gives you week one. So just go over that. Fantasypoints.com, promo code, score more. So for the guru, for Mr. Barrett, congratulations on getting married this summer.

I'm Brian Drake. We'll see you next time for the Fantasy Points podcast.