Fantasy Football Daily - Fantasy Points Podcast | Theo Ash

Episode Date: June 10, 2024

Join "The Guru" John Hansen and Brian Drake for the ultimate fantasy football podcast. Each week, they dive into the latest NFL news, strategies, and insider tips to help you dominate your fantasy league. In this episode, the dynamic duo is joined by special guest Theo Ash, a renowned fantasy analyst, to break down the hottest trends, key player performances, and crucial waiver wire picks. Theo also discusses his journey in content creation. Whether you're a seasoned veteran or a fantasy newbie, the Fantasy Points Podcast delivers the expert analysis and advice you need to stay ahead of the competition. Tune in and take your fantasy game to the next level! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey, what's up? It's John Hanson and on this week's edition of the Fantasy Points podcast, I really enjoyed this one chopping it up with a young man named Theo Ash. You may have seen him on TikTok or YouTube of the Stay Hot podcast. And I can tell you that I see a lot of myself in this kid, honestly, with his takes, with him being an eyeball test guy. So we talked a little bit about his career path, social media, getting his start there and break. down the NFL for fantasy football and real football. And we also talk about some players heading into the 2024 campaign. So stay tuned for a pretty rock solid episode, pretty darn entertaining, if I say so myself.

And thanks for listening and subscribing and giving us all the good feedback. And you are, in fact, welcome. All across the fantasy universe, you're locked and loaded with the Fantasy Points podcast, powered by FantasyPoint.com. What's up, everybody? It's your boy, Brian Drake. joined as always by the guru the publisher of fantasy points.com. It's Mr. John Hanson. John, we got a youngster here who's really got a change in the game this this week.

I'm excited to start talking to content creation and all the nerdy stuff along with some NFL, you know, lingo here. So it's exciting, man. How you doing? Doing well. Yeah. Looking forward to chopping it up with our. It's a multi-generational program here, if you will, podcast here with a guy. Theo, I don't think he's as old as I was when I started in this business. But I did start at 26, but that was way, way back, probably when Theo was like negative 14, but we'll get into it. But I'm excited to be here. Once again, getting into these podcasts here with you, Brian, every week. Absolutely.

So we're going to bring on our guest Theo Ash. You follow him on X and TikTok at Theo Ash NFL. And I probably don't have to say this to many of you because he's got over 270,000 followers on TikTok. I don't know if I have 27 followers on TikTok, John. And we'll get into all that. Theo, man, welcome to the party. What's going on, brother? I'm, I'm happy to be here.

I'm happy to be here. Did you guys know Vince Lombardi? Did you guys break down Bart Star and the ice bowl and all that? Just missed it for you. Just missed it. But I do remember John Madden winning a Super Bowl for the Raiders. So that's probably my first Super Bowl memory would be that era there. Steelers, Cowboys.

I saw Terry Bradshaw and Roger Stoback battle it out in the playoffs when I was like seven years old. I am a Vikings fan as we discussed off air. And, you know, by the way, not to go right into it here. But hopefully you're fortunate enough to be around this business. as long as I have and you maybe you get to know a hero of two of yours my first sports idol in football was fran tarkenton for the minnesota vikings of course the hall of famer then uh 25 odd years later ended up doing a uh weekly radio show with them on c m so you never know man that's awesome that's awesome i just started watching some of the first super bowls this off season just kind of out

of boredom went back and saw what it was all about and it was it was good back in the day honestly I was I was impressed. I was watching even before like Madden and stuff like that. But who was it for the Raiders in Super Bowl 2? Was it? I can't remember the name. Carol of Monica. That's exactly right. Yeah, him and Bart Star were kind of cooking. Joe Namath.

Matt Barma. He was. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, he was. So we're happy to have your audience from the hot. It's at the stay hot pod, right? Yeah. Podcast.

So John, when I told them the name of the podcast to stay hot pod, he goes, That's the thing the kids are saying? He goes, he's like, I've been saying that for years. So I want to how you guys came up with that. Now, John, tell us the story about how you continue to stay hot when you're killing it on the mini golf course. Well, I legit LOL when I heard that because that to me is, is awesome. It's almost kind of like it's so bad. It's good.

And that way it's a little obnoxious, but you know, you have a little swagger about you. I feel like I'm not sure the origin. That's, that's my take on it. But I think it's hysterical. So congratulations on a cool name for your podcast. Honestly, we didn't come up with it at all. It's a little bit older than us, I think. And the guy who named the podcast is our former producer, and he's a baseball guy.

He runs a Yankees podcast. And I never really even realized or thought about what Stay Hot meant. We were just kind of happy to have a name. And it's more of a baseball thing, right? Like someone gets hot hitting. You say, stay hot. Like, if I first heard it in the MLB, like video game, like, some character off screen yelling,

stay hot at my character. I was like, oh, it's more of a baseball thing. Our podcast names were way younger and dumber than stay hot. We wanted like, we wanted just like wadcast, which is podcast with a WADCADCADD

at the beginning. Like that's what we found funny. Well, you know, I did coach Little League Baseball for like 14 years. I don't think that was one of, but one of mine was get there. You know,

kid running the outfield. Get there. Get there. Say hot. But you know, Brian. And Theo, it would be funny if it was stay hot and more of a, you know, a physical appearance like like, uh, we can kind of, you know, view it, view a variety of lenses here. But in a way, like, hey, everybody, enjoy your sports. Let's stay hot out there. Let's stay hot. Mm-hmm. We're bringing it back. We're bringing it back. If it was a thing, it isn't anymore, it's, it is now. So I'm, I'm grateful for the name. I'm grateful for the name.

So, you know, you're a guy who you actually, we'll get into your whole story here. You were going to school at Arizona State. You were studying sports journalism. And a guy I actually followed Jeff Perlman on social media, he's a, you know, kind of world famous sports writer, came into your school and started talking to you guys about getting your content out. And that's how you found TikTok, right? And how you became like, all right, hey, this might be a place where I want to put my content because, I mean, you're so huge on the platform now. So tell our audience here, kind of how you came from, you know, just random student at Arizona State. to 270,000 followers on this app.

Yeah, we're talking Cronkite school over here? Yeah, we are. Broadcaster? We are talking Cronkite school. That's where I was at, taking classes, but it was derailed by COVID, my freshman year at the end. So when Perelman came into class, it was through Zoom, and I really didn't have much going on.

I was back in Arizona at this point for my sophomore year, but none of the classes were held in person. They were all, I was just at my apartment all day. A lot of my friends were staying at home doing online classes. So I had all this time to kill. I had been thinking about getting into it. But TikTok, when I first had heard of it, was called Musically. And my little sisters used it to post like dancing content or lip syncing content.

So I always thought the app was pretty childish and dumb, which it is. But at the time, there was no one really making serious football content on there. There were people making football content, but it was all pretty silly. It was just like a tweet, and they were like nodding under the tweet. They were like taking it from other platforms. No one was really creating what I thought was good content on there about football. So then Perlman came in, and he was like, you got to be on every social media platform you can be on. And after that, I was like, like you said, he's a world's famous writer.

Might as well take his advice. If there's no one on there, I think I can be the best pretty quickly. and I'm probably going to gain more of a following there than as a reply guy on Twitter. So that's what I did. And I was right. I mean, I gained a following pretty quickly. That algorithm does a really good job of showing people who don't follow you, your content. So it's pretty easy to get viral content on there compared to a place like Twitter.

So or Instagram or like I could have done YouTube and I waited into the YouTube waters a little bit. but there's a lot of great content creators on YouTube, but it's harder to stand out. So that's how I got my start. That's how I went from student to TikToker. And then because I had so much free time, it was very easy for me to continue making videos. And it got to the point where I was focused so much on making the videos

that my schoolwork started to stuffer. And eventually, eventually I just focused full time on working. All right. More with Theo Ash and the guru on the Fantasy Points podcast coming up next. All right, guys, welcome back in Theo Ash is our guest. You, of course, follow him on X and TikTok at Theo Ash NFL. And Theo, you just sort of talking to us about you're in school. You're a junior in Arizona State.

You get on TikTok. What finally pushed you over the edge to say, like, wait a minute, I can make money doing this. And did you see a check start to come in and you go, oh, the light went off? You're like, wait a minute, what am I wasting my time here for? I'm already doing the job. You know, you see that with a lot of guys who, you know, like the Mark Zuckerberg, of the world when they just leave college because I'm doing the job. What do I need the piece of paper that says I can do it?

I'm here. I'm reporting on sports. This is why I'm here to begin with. And, oh, by the way, there's money coming in. Yeah, it was just that. I mean, there's a page on your profile where you can see revenue coming in. And that's what I saw. And beats paying tuition, right?

I could either pay to do the job or I could get paid to do the job. And I feel like sports journalism, especially is a job of connections. and it's a job of how good your portfolio is. And I really loved Karangkite. I think it does a great job of helping build a portfolio and getting you internships and letting you cover sports and all that. But it's also very traditional in terms of how it approaches sports journalism. Like I'm not quite a writer.

I'm not quite someone who's going out and interviewing coaches. I'm someone who's going over data, watching film, and then putting forward my own opinion, which doesn't really lend itself to what I was doing. at the journalism school, which, you know, all that stuff is also really fun. But that's where I was really starting to find my niche. People knew who I was. And so I was like, I don't think I need to complete this.

And you can always go back to college. And you can't always strike, well, the iron's hot on your career, I feel like. So that's, that was, yeah, it was just that simple money was coming in. Yeah, I have a son who graduated from Delaware a couple of years ago. Now, he's got a math degree and he does a little. side business, but his main gig, or at least 50-50 in terms of his actual degree, is doing YouTube videos, doing offering commentary on a certain video game, but they're like long form videos, two hours that take him up to three to four months to produce. They do really well, but boy,

it takes a ton of discipline for him, you know, working for himself, you know, to wake up every morning and grind it out. So do you find that to be a challenge in your world? Or are you just so into it and energized that, you know, it's not really worked to you? It's hard, definitely. I mean, I have no boss and no coworkers and it's just me and my girlfriend here. And that's mentally, like, difficult, I think. Absolutely. I don't, I don't talk to it. And I didn't play football. So I had to learn it all on my computer, basically, and kind of learn on the job. And because I'm consistent, producing content, there's not a lot of time to sit back and just intake information and learn. I did the same thing, dude. I really did, starting in 1995, learning on the job and flying

by the seat of my pants, but working my ass off and it seems like you're doing the same thing. That's what I'm trying to do. And I'm not sick of it yet. There are definitely times where I feel disappointed in my output or I wish I was doing a better job or I wish, you know, something. I still have, but I think that's also ambition. Like I think I could be better. I think I could be bigger. I think I could make better content. And the exciting thing that I always go back to is I can.

Like there's, I can do make a better content. I can learn more. Like, that's kind of my job every day. And I, it's definitely difficult. And it's something I can talk about as a master of it yet. Because it's still a situation that I feel like I'm, in the middle of like do I want to work for a company and have deadlines and stuff and maybe that would be a little bit more of a sense of accomplishment that I actually have like okay a goal that I have to do instead of like kind of

these loose ideas in my head I don't know so it's it's definitely a little difficult but at the same time every every job has its difficulties and I persevere through it and a lot of the times I am really enjoying what I'm doing and I it doesn't feel like work when I really get a good handle of what I'm looking at and start to really form an opinion. And then you watch more and more and you look up more and more. And you're thinking, okay, I actually feel pretty good about this. That's when it really gets fun, I think, when an agenda starts to come together or a take starts to come together.

And it feels like, okay, I could stand in front of a room of people and explain myself and actually have something interesting to say with the data to back it up or the film to back it up. And that's when it gets exciting. And I do love to, I love to have takes. I love to have an argument. I love to say my argument. So when I, when it hits and I'm proven right or proven wrong or whatever, like, it's, it's fun to me a lot of the time.

Oh, it's like a drug. Let's be honest. Come on. Yeah. I mean, it is. You know what my phrase is? Here's my phrase. And by the way, not to be a self indulgey here, but.

But Brian, I mean, Theo really does remind me of my own mindset, basically. Yeah. And I'll say this too. You can do all those things. You can work for a company while doing your own thing. I mean, you can really piecemeal it together. So there's some advice right there. But I mean, Brian, very articulate.

I can tell you this. He does remind me of myself. But there's absolutely no way in hell. I was that articulate and really the brevity with so much that he said there was outstanding job, young man, I must say. I'm impressed. You know what it is too? He's got great hair.

And that's the first thing I noticed about people. Like a number one pick in a good hair league. Yeah, he's like a young Justin Herbert over here with this. There we go. This quaff going. I love that. You know, there's a lot of content creators after COVID on TikTok that talked about being burned out and, you know, they couldn't come up with anything anymore.

and it's kind of just they're hot for a second and then outwork them theo that's my advice outwork them yeah brady do you have a plan where you do look at content plan like all right i'm going to do this stuff this month or is it kind of just flying by the seat of your pants like whatever the news is of the cycle that day like hey i can create something about that i should have more of a content plan that i do certainly there are series that i i can think of and then that gives me content to make over the course of the off season like i watch every quarterback and talk about all of their interceptions. And that's something I can do 30 times, right?

I can talk about all of Lamar's interceptions and talk about how bad each of them was. And then if I need to talk about something, I could talk about golf doing that or whoever, right? At the same time, I'm watching the old Super Bowls. That's 50 episodes I could make right there. So I have these series that I can always go back to, but it's not necessarily ordered out.

And it very much is kind of news of the day if the Justin Jefferson contract extension drops, I'll make a video on that. TikTok is different than YouTube where it doesn't take me that long to make a video. Maybe it takes me a day to scout everybody in an afternoon to put my thoughts together and record it. But it's not quite something at this point that it takes me, I haven't needed a very long distance plan. And if I made one, I think it would change. But with all the news about TikTok, and I think it's kind of falling off. here a little bit and might get taken off the app store and all that I am trying to

pivot to YouTube a little bit more and starting to try to develop these strategies and and these types of schedules but I'm kind of in the beginning stages of doing that kind of thing they do you have any idea and if you don't it's not an indictment on you by any stretch but how fortunate you are and people like you to be able to have the vehicles and the platforms to distribute content because up until just recently, 20 years ago, let's say, you know, the major big companies, they held all the cards. And yet, you know, the fragmentation now is such that, you know, I'm thinking about your future.

What could be your possible endgame like your dream scenario? And I'm thinking like of seven different things. You could like just focus on podcasts. You just focus on video. You could be, you know, maybe aspire to be an analyst on a network. television show. So your thoughts on that opportunity and how, how difficult it must have been without, you know,

you had to really pay dues. You're sitting there talking about popping up on TikTok and blowing up already. You know, back in the day, dudes have to languish in like mail rooms for like, I know what I'm saying? It almost feels too easy. It feels weird to say that, but it really did. I mean, it was, if you put out good stuff, it got noticed. right away. And yeah, it is super lucky that these avenues exist. And social media has its downsides.

And it's tough to, I think, make good content on social media because it kind of lends itself to making shit. Like sometimes that's what makes the most money. Right. So that's kind of the great internal debate is like, oh, I could put something out that would make everybody mad. And it would be so easy, but you do have to put in a little bit more work than that. And I think that's what's good in the long run is like it could be even easier is the scary thing it's like yeah it's like any like anybody can get a platform like anybody can get a platform and and you don't want to be anybody sometimes like there's some bad there's some bad ones out there because of it but yeah it is it I am very fortunate and a lot of young a lot of young people are very fortunate about how that all worked out where is

that going because we've seen ESPN they've shifted away from highlight shows to now Now, it's hot take Stephen A. Smith bullshit. You know, that's what we see out there now. And, you know, this is the skip Baylaces of the world. Do people want the hot take, click bait articles, or do they want something you're doing and doing pretty well, these analytical breakdowns with actual some thought behind it? You know, heaven forbid. I may remember those days.

Yeah, I think it's definitely trending. I'm optimistic about the future because I think you can't help but look. at the stuff that I make and the stuff that a lot of big YouTubers make, like Brett Coleman comes to mind, Alex Rawlins, these are dudes on YouTube who do really great in-depth breakdowns about football. They get millions of views and they have a very nice lifestyle and they are set up because they do good work. And I feel like when good work is available to you on other platforms

and it's getting all these views and people are being very successful based on putting the work in and actually saying something interesting, like it becomes very easy to see, you know, the BS for what it is. And I think ESPN has done a, like, that's a huge network. And obviously Stephen A is kind of a famous, like, you know, shock jock or whatever you want to say.

But ESPN has also, I think, done a decent job pivoting to better minds or more in-depth minds. I mean, one of their analysts just got hired to be a head coach. of the Lakers, right? And everybody loved his podcast and his stuff. And so I really think the future is- Mina-Kimes is outstanding. Yeah, Mina, you know, puts in more work than I do, probably. Like, she and she goes and has a huge, and has a huge platform. And Orlovsky even, like, he'll, he'll go onto the screen. And I don't always agree with what he says, certainly. But, you know, he'll put in, like, do a film breakdown, right? And I think that kind of stuff is all very

popular in terms of views and I think that that is the future of the industry. I think these guys need to realize like, hey, people like that. And then people also like real charismatic personalities. And this is like the Pat McAfee side of it, right? He's not really given, although he brings people on that give film reviews and stuff like that. But he himself is like, it's just fun to watch how he reacts. And I guess that's kind of the same thing as Stephen A and Skip. Like people just like to see what crazy thing he'll say. But I don't know, there's just so many eyes everywhere now that there's room for kind of everything. So I guess the future is just everything. So are you like 100% analyst? Do you do any infotainment, you know, on the podcast? And then,

you know, as an analyst, are you a data guy? Are you a film eyeball test guy or are you data plus film guy i try to be data plus film uh definitely become more film like pilled as as my career has gone on when i started like i knew i really knew nothing like about the game and the strategy and the plays and the formations and stuff like that and i would do play reviews despite not knowing anything people would still watch them and then i was like before like real analysts joined tic-tok and dunk on me i've got to like learn my shit. And so it's been years of of trying to learn it on yourself to do the work so you don't look like a jackass. And the more I, the more I learn about the film, the more I realize that stats can account for everything. And then I like the eye test a little bit more. But

there's no way you can watch everybody. And and you need you can't see something or you can't think you see something with no statistical backing whatsoever. You got to you got to find something somewhere. All right, we're going to take a quick time out. Don't go anywhere, folks, more with our guy, Theo Ash, on the other side. It's week three of Canadian tires early Black Friday sale. These prices won't go lower this year, maybe too long. Freezing. Save up to 50% November 20th to 27.

Conditions apply, details online. All right, Theo, we got you back in. We appreciate you hanging out with us. Here's the Fantasy Points podcast, Drake and the Guru. We got to get some of your takes here to start running through Fantasy Points data. I was on your Twitter, Theo Ash NFL, and you're asking people to, you know, throw a stat out at me. And I'll break down, you know, the top 10 at this position. We got to make sure all these guys are going over to Fantasy Points data.

And we're going to get you hooked up with a free account over there. And you can start powering these projections and these fun stats right through the best in the business here with Fantasy Points data. I can pretty, pretty confidently say that you're going to be all in on that. Well, let's talk a little ball here as we gear up for the. the 2024 campaign. I understand you are a Packers fan living in Minnesota Viking territory. We do discuss that. You see the helmet there behind me.

I'm a long-suffering Viking fan. I was, in fact, in attendance in 1998. I was in attendance in 01 and predicted a bedshitting. By the way, before the 41 to nothing loss at the hands of the New York Giants. I was also at Bounty Gate in New Orleans for Brett Farr throwing the interception into force overtime all that stuff so uh you are a packer fan yeah it sucks man it's i don't i don't wish on anyone else uh it's been painful but you are packers guy and i i was you know kind of a jordan love guy last year so i'm curious your thoughts on love i think he got off to that really good start

and everyone's like okay all right but then he got into a little bit of a slump and then the hater started creeping out oh see see and then he turned that corner and the rest is his history. Are you buying? I am, of course, last week's guest, his son caught touchdown from Love in the NFC title game talking about Bo Mountain and Gary Mountain. Are you in? Are like me and Gary are? Me and Bo's dad in terms of like Jordan Love might be the NFC's Mahomes this year. Like he might emerge as a superstar. Yeah, I am totally in on him. I don't know if Mahomes is a goal that I would set for him, but man, his potential is pretty limitless. And One of my best takes ever was Jordan Love last off season because I didn't have much to go on.

But after watching his film versus the Chiefs, when he had to make that emergency start at Arrowhead. Pretty good. And versus the Eagles, especially when he came in in relief of Rogers and almost mounted a comeback. Based on really those two things alone, I started to be really excited. Same. Yeah. Especially the Eagles game. By the way, back, my case of case, we don't even know.

know who that is. But back in 2008, Aaron Rogers did the exact same thing when he replaced five. And you're happy to get a start the year before. And I'm like, oh, he's balling. This guy's good. Boom. Next year is like my sleeper of the year. Nailed it. Easy call. Yeah. I mean, it's pretty eerie. The similarities, the statistical similarities between Rogers and love. I don't have them all off the top of my head. But I think they had like very similar. T touchdowns and yards and interceptions and everything like their stat lines were matched up pretty perfectly they and and we'd love like yeah man against that eagles game his back foot was hitting the top of his drop and that ball was out and he was layering it and it really only takes one throw and when you see just that at all

like a layered intermediate pass between two guys with great timing like you do zach wilson was the second overall pick you never saw that in his entire career so if you could just see a one time with somebody. And much less like you played, I don't know how many drives, two, three. Like you saw a couple of them like that. And then you go back versus the Kansas City game. There Spags is blitzing him at the highest rate. You blitzed anybody all year.

LaFleur doesn't have the game plan because they thought Rogers was vaccinated. And he turns out he wasn't like they, it was complete chaos, right? And all Jordan Love was doing was saying, okay, I'm getting lit up. Let me find Devante Adams one on one. And he didn't hit every throw, but at least I could see. what his mindset was. It's like, okay, he knows he's got the one-on-one with a great receiver. He's trying to be aggressive. He's trying to put his foot on the gas. He's not seeing it. He's just not quite hitting it in a really tough environment. And so when I watched those two games,

I was like, okay, I think he's got it. I think he's developed. He's learned behind the best for several years now. He's got a great play caller in Matt LaFleur, who comes from that Shanahan system that develops quarterbacks like nothing. Like what could go wrong? And, and really what? what went wrong was none of the receivers knew like the routes to run and they kept getting pre-snap penalties at the beginning of the year. But when that worked itself out, he was, he was the most effective quarterback in football the back half of the season. He threw like one pick after like week 12 or something like that until the NFC championship game. And that was a rough fourth quarter. So I'm hoping he can get a little bit more clutch going forward. But yeah,

I really have no qualms about him being a star. What about Caleb Williams? We were talking about young ascending quarterbacks here, the number one overall pick for the Chicago Bears, interested to see what he can do in this Shane Waldron offense. He's got weapons now. A lot of times he's number one picks Theo. They come in and, you know, the cupboard is bare. That's not the case here. No pun intended with Caleb Williams. You've got, you know, DJ Moore. You've got Keenan Allen, Roma Dunzei, Swift now in the backfield. So it's kind of all here for him. And I hope the line has been upgraded enough where he's not going to be, you know, seeing ghosts kind of what he was seeing last year at USC.

But from your film breakdown and thought process, what do you think of Caleb Williams this year? I think you're exactly right that last year at USC, his offensive line was a, was a rough situation. You just need to watch the La Jatu Latu game against USC. I mean, he cooks that entire line,

the entire game. And I think Caleb is still making some pretty incredible plays. So there's some wizardry in there. I do think he has some Mahomes particles in him. I do think that he has, I mean, from the moment he stepped on the football field at Oklahoma, he mounted the biggest comeback in like the history of the program against Texas and the Red River rivalry.

It was it was spectacular play after spectacular play. Rattler got benched. It was like 28 to 7. Caleb brought him back to win and he was the best quarterback in college football ever since. Like he does need to get rid of the football faster. Definitely like he does need to keep the the playground plays like under control. But but that's Lincoln Riley's style. And that's kind of Cliff Kingsbury style, who was an offensive analyst there as well last year.

Like I think they kind of gave him the green light to play like that. I do think he can rain it in if he has to. So I'm, I mean, as a Packer fan, I hope the Bears aren't too good. But I do think with their weapons and Caleb Williams, they'll be pretty potent, at least through the air. Another young quarterback who bawled out right out of the gate, C.J. Stroud. And, you know, I've had a saying, you know, as, you know, what I'm. I do. I'm a fantasy guy, but also an NFL guy, first and foremost. I'm not really a stats guy. I'm an eyeball guy who comes up with the same conclusions as the stats guy somehow, but that's neither here nor there. But the saying is this, if it seems too good to be true in the national football league, the national fake you out league, it probably is. And seemingly, I'd say 80% of the time I bring it up and use an example in the preseason. It ends up being the case. I'm looking at the Houston Texans here. And it really truly does seem to be good to be true because

D'emico Ryan's was great. Bobby Slov was great. The O-line was great. They had injuries. It didn't matter. We're adding Steph Diggs. We're getting Tank Dell back. They had Kate Stover.

Now, granted, maybe something here at running back, but probably an upgrade. Joe Mixin. I mean, it does seem too good to be true. So your thoughts on the Texans, do they continue to ascend in 2024? I don't see why not. I mean, Stroud is pretty good. I didn't think the Diggs trade was quite a home run. I do think that he lost a bit of a step last year.

And then they traded a second for him. And now he's going to be a free agent after next year, which it's like, I don't know if the value is quite there from a team building perspective. But they still have Tank Dell and they still have Nico Collins. So it's like how good does Stefan Diggs really need to be if those guys take another step? Or if Tank Dell plays all 17 games, which we'll see. So I think they're contenders. I can't see why not Stingley broke out in the back.

half of last year. I thought that he had an incredible run later late last season and I was starting to get a bit worried about him. But now it looks like he's going to kind of live up to his draft status. And Will Anderson is amazing. And. Do you give any credence to the sophomore slump in that, okay, now we have film on C.J. Stroud or was his processing and poise in the pocket just like too good like the guy's good, period? I think that he might be getting a bit overhyped right now. Like I see a lot of three. I mean, a lot of lists have him top five.

And after Mahomes, like, he's the guy that you take. I see a lot of takes that put him on that level. He's really, really good. But Stroud's season wasn't drastically different than like Trevor Lawrence's season in 22. two. All right. Like if you look at the numbers, those guys were, that's a really good season for both of those guys. But then Trevor came in the next year. They added Calvin Ridley. Like it all looks great. And, you know, stuff happens. Like guys drop touchdowns. Like he gets a bit banged up. Like the line is bad. Doug Peterson doesn't coach as well. Like he does, he makes a couple bad decisions in the red zone. Like, who knows what can happen. So you really got to see the breakout to believe it with Stroud. And I think it could definitely happen that he throws 40 touchdowns and he's the league MVP,

but that's not necessarily a 100% guarantee. There's still a range. And there is a world where he's disappointing because the line still has some question marks on the interior. And, you know, tank tells pretty small. Is he going to play 17 games? Is Diggs really going to run out of gas? You know, who knows what could happen over the course of the year.

So I wouldn't take the Texans over. the chiefs at this point. But the Texans are still pretty good. Like we can say like things could go wrong. Like yeah, but that's true for every team. On paper, they look pretty nice. So I do believe in him and them. Speaking of sophomore slump,

but I'm going to stay in the division with the teams that you guys know and love. And it's with the Detroit Lions. And the sophomore slump could be for O.C. Ben Johnson. So last year, he kind of took the league by storm and golfs out here looking like Superman, at least when he plays indoors. you know, Gibbs and Montgomery, a great one-two punch, a Mon-Rae has, you know, maybe a career year. At some point, though, does Jared Goff turn back into a pumpkin? Does some of the boneheaded plays that, you know, their head coach is making out, does that come back to bite them?

Does the fact that they really don't have a second wide receiver, you know, we'll see with Jameson Williams, but can he put it all together? You know, I don't, I'm curious about the Lions if they're going to come back down to Earth. but to me what separates them is their offensive line, John. That's what makes it keeps them above and beyond everybody else. But Theo, what do you think? Because any team led by Jared Goff instantly scares me. I just never have faith that they're going to get over the hump and they're going to put together a championship run.

I was almost proven wrong last year. But I just figured the odds are with me that Jared Goff's going to end up sucking at some point. I mean, we saw him in, in L.A. get paid and go to a Super Bowl and have all kinds of success. McVeigh put forward some historic offenses, and then eventually they thought we need a bit more juice. They go with Matthew Stafford, and then they win the Super Bowl. But I don't know if golf will suffer the same kind of drastic falloff he did in L.A.

I think it could be a situation where they get to the playoffs and realize that maybe he doesn't have enough juice, but for him to fully collapse, I don't know. He's so comfortable behind that offensive line. I'm on raw. Amon Ra does such a great job making, getting easy looks versus zone coverage underneath. Like, I don't think it'll be a complete collapse, but you look at what the bears are building and what the Packers are building and we'll see what JJ McCarthy does. It's a great division.

And if any of those quarterbacks cement themselves in the MVP conversation, I do think the Lions could say like, hey, they got the MVP and we got Jared Goff. So I think that it depends on how good the rest of the North is. think the lions themselves will fall off, but I do think it's possible that a younger, maybe more talented team really breaks out and surpasses them. Well, I have found, speaking of Ben Johnson real quick, I think he is legit. I think he's the real deal, but there, but there is one area where it's usually a really good litmus test for some coordinators. You know, I've been doing this for a long time myself. And, you know, I've seen things transpire. And it is, you, you know, Utilizing the running back in the passing game.

I think we've seen some really good office of coordinators over the years not do that well. Like Norv Turner is a good example. He did not use Darren Spurals very well out there with the Chargers. But, you know, Josh McDaniels, elite, Sean Payton, elite. I think that's kind of like the last frontier for Ben Johnson there with Jamir Gibbs. I didn't call up the data points in front of me, but I was actually talking about it today on Sirius XM about, Now, you know, Jamir Gibbs is receiving data and numbers not very impressive.

And if that doesn't improve dramatically, then we might see a little ceiling there in Ben Johnson. Yeah, I remember this time last year, they were saying like, oh, this is going to be a, he's going to have a role that you've never seen before or something like that. And then he was like just the running back. Like he was good. But yeah, I agree. They could maybe use him in a bit more of exciting. receiving role. So I agree. I think I think that Ben Johnson is legit, but there is still room for

growth in that offense, especially with with Gibbs. I agree with all that. Yards per route run, for example, along, well, I'm looking at 135 dudes here, but only 66. So right, right behind, right tie with Isaiah Pacheco, which I would not have predicted that one last summer. No, no, definitely not. My favorite thing that you've put out, you've done a lot of things great on social media, TikTok, Twitter, X, whatever you want to call it. The best ever is you saying the Giants prediction for this year. You have the G-Men at 2 and 15. I love it.

I think the Giants are a shoe-in for the number one overall pick. And I think in a way, they really want that because then they can get a quarterback next year. But what's got you so down on the G-Men besides having eyes and looking at the roster? I don't like their offensive line or their quarterback. And I think if neighbors gets hurt on the MetLife turf, then they're in the same situation that they were like last year where it's pretty rough. I don't know about Daibald, dude. I think the stories that I heard about his relationship with Wing Martindale and how he's kind of tough to approach and like raging on the sideline. I don't know if you guys read that in the in the athletic.

Like I was like, I don't know. and he's kind of one of those guys like what you love about him sometimes fiery is kind of maybe what you hate about him at times other times yeah and and i they lost sayquan and i know that sayquan was super inefficient last year i i totally understand like he had what like three point eight yards per carry i still think he was their best offensive player and that i think that says something about just how bad they are and it's like now they're running back is single terry i mean i guess the offensive line could improve but man i'm just not i'm not i'm not I'm not convinced that they're going to be like when you when you stack up all the quarterback

situations they're there at the bottom and that's just a pretty good way to tell like who the worst team in the league is going to be it's it's probably going to be them in the raiders right because they've got the worst quarterbacks and yeah I mean the two and 15 is I'll say it's slightly a callback because I predicted to go to and my bangles take they were two and 15 and it kind of became famous after that like if theo predicts you to go two and 15 that you'll actually break out because I've done it with the giants before. and then they made that playoff run and beat the Vikings, unfortunately. So the 2 and 15 is partially like I can predict that.

And it's kind of am I predicting it? Like they'll really go 2 and 15 or am I saying that? And then like, oh, they'll go on a playoff run. It's kind of an inside joke with my followers. But they will be bad. Like I just cannot see that offense bringing them higher than third in that division. So they're going to be pretty rough, I think. So would you fancy yourself as part?

of your repertoire of content and goods like you know a little bit of a scout do you look at you know attributes and break all those down because i'm i'm curious your thoughts on what i call it i don't know if other people do this but i call it like invisible scouting what are the attributes that you can't tangibly see that really affect a player's ability to the play or not you know basically for example daniel jones runs like a freaking deer okay yeah rose a throws well pretty good mechanics i guess um you know there's a lot to like processing i believe at the end of the day a slow blinker i mean you can pick that up on film but your your thoughts on on scouting invisible scouting dandy dimes whatever you got here

there's some stuff that seems little but it's actually big i i don't know there's nothing that's like totally invisible but there's stuff that just kind of makes me raise an eyebrow one of those things from this most recent draft is j j mccarthy only throws bullets i i never see him put any kind of lost he's a one speed throw and i guess that's a pretty common that could be coached out of them maybe but i i do think that that's like part of a larger processing thing where it's like can you diagnose the right throw for a situation and yeah you're a one speed thrower but why why is that like you're a quarterback you've been throwing your whole life you're you've got jim harbaw coaching you for god's sake like if it could be coached out of him like like you're like you could be coached out of

him like has it by now and and could it speak to you know we see him with such a limited sample size of throws like how many yards did you have last year passing was it like 2,900 it wasn't it wasn't like this lofty amount right or lofty amount of passing attempts behind that offensive line that can run so well and so when you do when he does throw it and you see things like okay he's not diagnosing like the right throw for the moment like how is he going to do in a bigger scheme where he's got to process way more information if like that simple thing isn't there and it's it's a little thing but that's something that's kind of you know concerning for me so i guess that's kind of the the invisible scouting or something that seems seems small but might actually be big and i'm always

and look if he doesn't do it you're you're probably on to exactly why right there i will say too i think some of the in my experience the one speed throwers who never get over it are the runners like Colin Kaepernick. I have seen some other, you know, one speed, you know, I mean, you could argue Brett Farrer was kind of a one speed thrower. Yeah. Worked out pretty well for him, right? You know, what are your thoughts real quick and just chopping it up with you here?

Just just some dudes talking ball, basically. But, you know, the recent trend, the NFL, like basically stopping Tyree Kill starting a couple years ago, two deep safeties. I think it's opening up opportunities for tight ends, maybe a little bit helping out the running backs. But your thoughts on, you know, the trends the last couple of years and will they continue or will NFL offenses strike back? Does strike back eventually. I mean, I haven't been around that long, but I agree with the saying that people older than me have said, which is like everything is cyclical. Like things, Things come back.

And watching some of these old Super Bowls, you realize just how old some of these like Shanahan concepts are. Like, oh, like play. It was all about like, they called it ball handling on the old broadcasts. Like, how good can you play fake and how does that? That's like all they were doing was play action and stuff. And now it's like the offensive meta, like, oh, you need play action. You need, you need all this.

And yeah, I definitely think that things will probably change in the next couple of years. because defenses are kind of having a moment. Like Mahomes, even though he's become a better player, he hasn't had a statistical season like he did in 2019 when he won his first MVP. He had like 50 touchdowns, right? And now they've... Right, right.

And yeah, his average depth of target way down and they've sold their wide receiver, Tyree Kill, and invested in offensive line. Like, I do think offenses, yeah, offenses are starting to adjust to the too high. And I think they are going to say, hey, man, we'll run it. that you met and the ravens are a great running team the san francisco 49ers are a great running team

the kansas city chiefs uh aren't quite like that but they're built through tight end and interior offensive line and who am i missing is that all four that we're in the end the lions the lions are a great running team they invested in running back so eventually i think the boxes could definitely start to to get heavier um so and we might see more one high and maybe all it takes is like one running back. Like maybe it's just been a while since we've seen an Adrian Peterson level talent in the league, right?

Where that really scares you into, maybe there'll be an era of running backs. I don't know what the future could hold where like, man, all these guys have franchise running backs. Like, we need to go back to one high and then it'll start over again or something like that. I definitely think it'll, like, as they get weaker, offenses will invest to exploit the weakness.

And right now it's light boxes. It's too high. it's, you know, middle of the field open. So, yeah, tight ends, running backs definitely seem to be the meta, like becoming to be the meadow right now. I'll tell you what. I wouldn't mind seeing about 950 carries this year from Briseau, B. John Robinson and Jonathan Taylor.

That'll turn that league around a little bit, I think. I agree. I agree. I want Sequin to get, like, back to form behind that Eagles offensive line. I'm hoping for that. I'm Josh Jacobs with LaFleur. Like, love is great, but how great would it be? if he didn't even need to be great, if we could just hand the ball off and he regains his all

pro form. Yeah, I definitely am excited about the potential of the running back renaissance that could potentially be awaiting us in the next few years. And you see how teams just totally devalued the linebacker position. You know, if you're an offball linebacker, I mean, you might as well just not even play anymore. And they're lighter and lighter. So if you can, you know, get these athletic tight ends who can block them. So, yeah, things are going to open up. I got to ask both of you guys a question because this was big, for my Twitter today. And it was a, I didn't come up with the question, but it spurred a lot of response where somebody asked on some show, would you rather have Eli Manning's career or Aaron

Rogers career? And I said and got a lot of, you know, pushback on. I said, if you don't choose Aaron Rogers, you need your head examined. I don't care. It's not like he doesn't have a ring. Exactly. People talk like, well, Eli's got two rings. Who cares? Like Rogers has a ring. And he who has 90 million more dollars in career earnings and four MVPs or whatever it is. You know, nearly a hundred more touchdown passes. So like they both have plenty of commercials. That's for sure. Right. Hey, who's, who's healthier?

That's whose career I'd rather have. They've both been pretty healthy over the course of their career outside of Rogers' collar bone issues. And I guess the most recent Achilles, but he, he kind of, I don't want to say he had that coming. But like you start coming back at age 39 and 40. It's like, was Eli playing at quite that age? I don't know. Eli basically fell off a cliff.

Riders didn't play. Remember his first, what, three, four years. True. So he just sat around and then Eli. Yeah. And so he and Eli, you know, we're both playing up until four years ago. Eli retired 2019. But yeah, you're right.

For the record, I've never met either dude. I have interviewed Eli on the radio and he was hysterical, by the way. Who would I rather have a beer with? That's Eli Manning all day. Yeah. Absolutely. No question. Lager, by the way.

or Peroni, FYI, just in case anyone cares. Send here, please. I'm going to have to start sending you some new, with my new job here, John, I'm going to have to start sending you some samples down to the new home down south. We're going to have you well-stocked in Georgia. I have that. Nice. So before we get you out of here, Theo, appreciate you spending time with us here on the Fantasy Points podcast.

And, you know, if you're listening, if you're new to the show, maybe Theo brought you in. Make sure you find Fantasy Points on YouTube. You hit that subscribe button. And if you love data and analytics and dynasty and anything that has to do with football or fantasy, it's all there on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel and make sure to subscribe to this podcast. But if someone's going to get into content creation tomorrow, they hear this, they go, you know what, this kid did it, I want to do it, I want to chase that dream. What advice would you give those guys out there who are going to pick up and start tomorrow?

I would say make what you want to make. Like when I started, I didn't ask anybody or really try to emulate anybody. in particular, I just had these ideas and wanted to implement them, really. And that's the kind of drive that I think you have to have. At ASU, we talked to Wojj and someone asked him about, like, getting into the sports journalism world. And his advice was, don't. Like, if you can do something else, do something else.

Like, you've got to really, really, really, like, want it and be good at it and know it and really be able to sacrifice everything for it. And it has to be all you want to do. because it's a tough industry to break into. Like I talked about it was easy for me, posting on TikTok when I did and getting the following that I did earlier. That's not really going to be the case for everybody. So you really got to lock in.

And I guess that's my advice. It's just have an idea. You got to have a lot of things that you want to say. And then just say them, man. That's my advice. And it's quantity, not quantity over quality, but you need both. like it's quality and quantity like just post a lot throw stuff at the wall and and see what sticks and yeah just just fully dive into it is my advice without thinking too much about like oh is this good is

is this bad is am i good enough like just you are good enough just do it and you're good enough real quick at the end here and then we'll let you go i echo all your sentiments there and i would also add you kind of touched on it too and you know i've said this a lot be yourself be 100% authentic even if it's goofy you know like i'm an older dude here but guess what i i talk like a younger guy i don't give a shit that that's literally how i am that's how i act i have i'm perennially 30 years old i have not changed for when i was 30 years old i don't give a shit i'd be myself and people i think people pick up on that yeah definitely i feel the exact same way i think people follow me not only for what I'm saying, but also just the personality. Like it's, it's not just the football

advice and the, the analysis. But yeah, you got to be friendly. You got to be like, you got to seem approachable. And then people will want to approach your content and then listen to you. And, and you got to be yourself. People can pick up on, on phony shit. And exactly. And then they they want to listen. Oh, man, a lot of great advice here. Folks, remember if you're on TikTok, if you're on X if you're just looking for a pod remember go find that stay hot pod give the guys a try over there it's a it's a lot of fun at theo man we got to thank you for the time brother it's been a blast I hope your girlfriend who was locked out you know gets back in her apartment or wherever you guys are going here but yeah man thanks brother we appreciate the time yeah thanks for so much

for having me on and thanks in advance for the for the data I'm gonna I'm gonna dive right into it yeah that's a lot that was awesome and stay hot with stay hot. That's right. Fantastic stuff right there from our guest, Theo Ash. And that's all for the guru and myself. We'll catch you next time on the Fantasy Point podcast.