Fantasy Football Daily - First Look at the Guru's 2023 Projections | Hansen's Hints Podcast

Episode Date: May 11, 2023

In the first 2023 edition of his Hansen's Hints show, John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru) runs through his initial 2023 NFL fantasy football projections, offering some of the biggest steals and values at early ADP. FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What is up, everyone? Welcome to another edition of Hansen's Hence here at FantasyPoint.com and the FantasyPoints.com podcast feed. I am John Hanson recording this puppy here on Wednesday evening, May 10th. We are now definitely past the draft, although for most out there, the draft seems to be a while ago. I just caught up basically here on May 10th here, wrapping up season project. for FantasyPoint.com. This is pretty much my wheelhouse, my specialty. I kind of am the czar of the season projections over at FantasyPoint.com. I do take feedback, though, from the staff, just so you know. And, yeah, so I'm here to talk about the upcoming campaign here while looking at the projections, which have just been completed. And what is the first thing you look at?

at when you look at rankings, or at least I do. I look for the steals, the values, and all that good stuff. So first look at the projections, they'll probably be up on the website by the time that you listen to this podcast. So check that out over at FantasyPoints.com. But I narrowed down, well, let me back up a moment here because one of the reasons I do believe that the projections that I've been involved in over the last 10, 15 years have done very well in terms of competitions with other sites and experts and all that is because I base it off of the projection. I don't know if everyone does that. They may have rankings for, you know, expert polls and the like, but are they basing those rankings off projections?

Because, you know, it's one thing to know a lot about the league and rank players and maybe your rankings are very good. but, you know, it's quite another to go deep under the hood and do actual projections and then work off of that in terms of your rankings. Now, it does get a little complicated sometimes with some injury prone players, let's say, like we had a discussion about Darren Waller, who I believe is outside of our top, or no, he's in our top 10 at tight end, but a little below the market. but if you actually sort by points per game, you'll see that he comes in at like tight-in-five or tight-end six. So I'm only projecting the dude to play 14 games. So that's just one small example of, you know, the intricacies and the nuances involved here,

but building these projections, something I've been doing for a long time. And I'm pretty old school here. I go pretty deep. Every projection is completely in line with, their recent performance, their offense, their situation, you know, their overall prognosis, and it all fits together like a puzzle. So for example, if you take all the, you know, receiving yardage projected for all Arizona cardinals, it will match, it'll come very close

to the quarterback projections here. So everything's kind of fitting in a little piece by piece into the puzzle. Now, in May real quick, it is a little weird because position battles are obviously just getting started. So you kind of slot guys in terms of where you think they'll end up on the depth chart, but that's not really a guarantee for a good third of the receivers, basically, on the board here. So there's some tweaking to be done. And these are imperfect in that regard, because they're something of placeholders, some of these projections for, you know, like the Green Bay tight ends, the two rookies.

That's a fluid situation to say the least, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. So they are slotted appropriately, but, you know, they could be flipped. I have craft we do here at Titan 38, for example, and Musgrave at Titan 32. We could be flipping those if craft is going off in training camp. So, yeah, just to look under the hood there in terms of the process, and we are going to get into today here in the podcast.

Basically, I've scoured all these numbers, compared them to various ADPs. And basically, I've come up with my top steals early on here in 23. Obviously, these are values. Some of these are, most of these are kind of the sleeper type. but not really all of them. These are the outright ROI guys, basically. I feel like they'll return the most on their investment here. So we will go through these by position,

but in no particular order, really, in terms of like my favorite steal, if you will. But by the way, as we get into the quarterbacks, I will say one trend I've noticed over the last couple of years I don't really pay attention to ADP when I do these projections. It doesn't really matter to me, honestly. But I notice lately that my projections, which then make the rankings, really do line up with the markets, if you will.

So that's been a little weird and a little frustrating. I don't know what it is, why I'm not as different at quarterback lately. but it is what it is. As long as we pick the right guys and do that, then we're good, I guess, which I happened to do last year. That was my best position by far. My burrow and Hertz,

some other guys. I believe Danny Dimes was on my list as well here. Some buzzkales like Derek Arb, but anyhow, the quarterback values, you know, that jump out of the, you know, jump off the screen here for me aren't plentiful. But I will go to Daniel Jones and look at him as a potential steal, you know, not,

not grand larceny or anything like that. But for example, he landed at QB10 on my first run of season projections, ADP around 14, QB 14, a QB 13 on underdog. And, you know, I've been talking a lot about Daniel Jones. and I've always been a Daniel Jones guy. I keep mentioning that I ignored him for a couple of years because you just knew he was screwed. The vibes were so bad with their bad coaching and all the problems.

But last year it was absolutely incredible. I mean, we can give you all the data points in the world, but the old eyeball test was pretty darn good as well. But, you know, his turnover worthy throw rate, for example, per fantasy points.com, was cut in half under Brian Dayball and the coaching staff there, Mike Kafka, who's probably going to be a head coach at some point.

I mean, this guy is very well, well respected here in football circles. Him and he calls the place with Dayball. So he's a hell of a passing game designer. and now they've got, you know, they took care of the turnover problems. They had him run a lot, obviously, and that's big. He's kind of like a poor man's Josh Allen. And then I think the last step in his progression here, and this has gone quickly. They've also upgraded the Office of Line is to truly let it rip out there.

And, you know, Offensive Line's been upgraded. Things are looking really good. Like every single sign points to Daniel Jones, building on a very successful 2022 season in which he was a QB1 technically. And now he's got, you know, basically his arsenal of weapons is like 2.5 times improved, basically, with Jalen Hyatt brought in as a rookie who is the vertical lidlifter that they need. And Daniel Jones does have a strong arm and can get the ball down the field with accuracy. His boy Sterling Sheper will see how long he can last Wondale.

Of course, I bring in Paris Campbell and, of course, Darren Waller, which bumps Daniel Ballinger down to a really good tight end too. So, boy, things are really, really looking up. They even upgraded the back of running back and a back of running back situation with Eric Gray, who I do like and I think is good. So Daniel Jones, my first steal at quarterback here after building and thoroughly reviewing the projections and the ADP. next up well i'll go right to anthony richardson and just know that i'm projecting here um you know basically the whole damn season and that's a tough one my initial gut reaction for what it's worth was that they might be actually cautious with them and sit them down for like six weeks but maybe even eight but doesn't seem that way so we went we went for it with 16 games played

that's qb 11 um with a very conservative uh projection a 3,500 180 yards and 20 touchdowns. We all know about the cheat code. Six rushing touchdowns is the projection for 535. So QB19 is a fair ADP right now in a season long environment. Underdog, he's getting a little bit more love, a little bit more upside involved there. It looks like he is on Underdog QB10. So he's actually right there with us there, actually a little higher.

So he's not a major, major. deal. Then the only other quarterback who stands out, now these are not targets, by the way. I mean, they are, but it's not the complete list of targets. There are other guys who basically we have ranked appropriately or near the markets that don't stand out as great values or anything like that, but still going to be targeting them. So the only other quarterback, as we move into the final guy here at this position, was believe it or not, Brock Purdy. And we certainly have a lot to see what happens here we have a lot to get to in terms of uh seeing exactly where tray lance is but you know from people we've talked to i've talked to uh he's their guy and that seems to be apparent

transparent out there in the media as well and you know a lot of data points do uh do look pretty good you know he was pretty accurate he was pretty loosey goosey out there doesn't have a big arm but guys get schemed open and obviously it worked. You know, they may have given Philadelphia a game had he not gotten injured in that game. He kind of fought through some near misses, some near catastrophic throws in the playoffs, but overall he did get them on the brink here. And, you know, plenty of weapons for Brock Purdy, who is QB32. It seems a little low, but, you know, maybe it's the data correction thing.

but we have him at QB 26. I think that's a little higher than others. 23 touchdown passes in only 13 games as well. It's difficult to project him to get all 16 games. But in a two-quarterback league, if these lower-end guys are valuable, I mean, there is legitimate upside, I think, here with Brock Purdy. Clearly, Trey Lance is not ready for prime time. So if Purdy is healthy, I do feel confident based on what he showed last year.

And now another year older and wiser. Moving on to running back here. But before we do, just a quick promotional note from our friends at the FFPC. And look, I actually play there. And that's like my preferred place to play nowadays. And great site. The two owners there, Alex and Dave. And I know those guys pretty well these days.

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stupidly in a lot of ways. So I have Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey, but I also have Justin Fields and Daniel Jones. So I actually drafted pretty well for holding off of the quarterback. But back to the read here, Dynasty startups like the one I'm in or was in last year, it's a year two this year. They're filling daily starting at a $100 entry all the way up to 500. The one I'm in is 2,500. So it's pretty high stakes. The FFPC best ball tournament, $125 in entry and Super Flex Best Ball tournament, $35 an entry are off and running. So head on over there. Great site to play and very stable. I mean, it works beautifully. Go to myfPC.com for more information. Back into the steals of the early projections here or the early

season here in 2023. I am John Hanson here, the Fantasy Points podcast Hanson's Hints running backs. Typically, typically, I would have to say my least accurate position for what it's worth, but

certainly the injuries have a lot to do with that. But here's a guy as I drink a sip of water, here's a guy who has not missed a game. He's 17 for 17 so far in two seasons. And, And no other human being on planet Earth had more running back touches than Najee Harris has had the last two years.

And early on here he's RB13 in some high stakes drafting season long wise. We have him at 9, RB9. And then on underdog, he is RB14. and there was a little boring with an ADP of 39, which is ridiculous. But I think they're jacked up a little bit with the quarterbacks. But then again, the early data point for season-long ADP here was 36. So it's like you could possibly get this guy at the top of round four, which that won't be the case soon.

But if he doesn't land in round two, period, that is an absolute steel. for Najee Harris. And, you know, I've done some videos on him. By the way, make sure you get the YouTube channel on your feed, if you will, subscribe to it, the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. I believe it's YouTube.com slash Fantasy PTS. But you can find it, I'm sure. Google it.

I believe they're owned by YouTube is owned by Google. They'll figure it out. Anywho, Najee, you know, feeling really good about the overall state of the Steelers' offensive line. And they're blocking. They are starting to come together a little bit. I saw that down the stretch. They were blocking it up better for Najee, who was probably a little healthier too from that foot injury. And now they added Broderick Jones now, hopefully a stud left tackle and, you know, basically a glorified right tackle. And Darnell Washington, who will, the tight

in from Georgia, who will improve their blocking game. And, you know, Kenny Pickett, by the way, we could argue, actually, I should have put him on the list, but I think I forgot, actually. He's on the damn list. Kenny Pickett, because he's, I believe, very, very good at football. And I know Matt Canada kind of stinks, but let me put it to you this way real quick with Kenny Pickett. if his touchdown percent and look he played very well last year as a rookie i think that's indisputable

if you have the gift of sight and watched him you know he had a couple game winning touchdowns there at the end walk off touchdowns there you know some big spots there as they were clinging to playoff hopes so he played well last year if his touchdown rate increased by 100 percent from last year he'd still be only 22nd at quarterback in terms of touchdowns percentage at 3.6. Marcus Marietta, no, Carcass Marietta was 5% last year. Taylor Heineke was 4.6%. I only have Kenny Pickett at 3.1%, which would have been 30th in football last year.

Only the 30th best. Yet the man is still over the market at QB21. and the market say QB 26. So keep that in mind. Once again, if Kenny Pickett increases his touchdown percentage from last year by 100%. It would still be only the 22nd best quarterback percentage in football, which is not impressive at all.

So in other words, what I'm trying to say is like, you want to talk about positive aggression. I mean, my man has a chance to easily, fairly easily, well, actually very easily, improve his touchdown percentage by 200%. That's, that's, you can only go up from there with the craptastic. I think it was like, what was it, like 1.7% of his throws. Completions were touchdowns.

I mean, please, absolutely brutal. So, yeah, backing up there into the quarterback position, forgot about Kenny Pickett. Here's what I did. put him in my running back group by accident next to Najee Harris. But yeah, Najee, there's a lot to like here. We're not going to get the workload that we got with Big Ben, Captain Checkdown. It's just give it up. I mean, the dude's not going to have 14 targets at a game again or whatever that was.

94 targets was pretty absurd. 53 last year, you know, the good news is, by the way, the catch rate was relatively unchanged from that rookie year with Big Ben and his YPR was not that changed to either, which does bode well with a little bit more volume. Maybe we can get back to, I think we can get back to 50 catches, even if Jalen Warren is involved here for Najee Harris. Damn good player, throwback player, very available player. You know, I like that. I don't think he's a guy. I mean, he could wear down relatively soon because he's a big guy and he, you know, takes on a lot of contact. But again, he's also like an old school guy. Like, it doesn't seem he plays hurt. You know, he's not going to, doesn't really have the

soft tissue problem. So I actually only have them with 43 grabs, but it's still a big number here. 323 touches for Najee Harris. Let's move on here. I'm belaboring some of these points here on the Fantasy Points podcast. The Hansen's Hints edition. another running back here. I'm going to go J.K. Dobbins. And I don't think we should overthink this one. We all know the storyline there. If we play fantasy,

we know that the knee injury suffered in 2021 in training camp was absolutely just brutal. And he really wasn't back. I don't think he was back even at the end of the year. But that didn't stop him from averaging 5.7 yards. to carry and, you know, ripping off some longer runs here. So final year of his rookie deal, they're now loaded. Yeah, they're going to throw more, but that's fine.

It's not like Lamar is going to suddenly throw it 39 times a game under Todd Monkin. So we're going to get some more catches here for J.K. Dobbins, who was able to haul in 18 balls his rookie year from Lamar with a pretty solid 75% catch rate, mind you. on 24 targets. Keep in mind he didn't play that much early in that season as they still had Mark Ingram, I believe, right? And of course, that year my big claim was Gus Bus was going to be a big factor and he was. That's why I said JK stood for just kidding. But not this year. We are not kidding this year. Pretty much a slam dunk. You know, another year removed from the knee injury. And this is when you want to get these running backs on your side. He's 24 years old.

and he is entering now what will be the year in which he earns the biggest contract of his life. So motivation, not a problem for J.K. Dobbins, one of the early steals here on the board at Running Back. Next guy up is probably a better steal. I said these weren't in a particular order. It's Cam Acres. And this is very similar. Like, let's not overthink it. All the data points were outstanding.

on Cam Acres from FantasyPoints.com. And even our guy, Brett Whitefield, was kind of shocked because I kept saying at the end of the year, like, he's back, he's back. And they went and they looked at the data points and they were eye-opening. And then Brett went back and he looked at the tape and they were also eye-opening. So we're all in, basically. And I think that Sean McVeigh is going to lean on one back as he's had in the past with success, of course, with Todd Gurley.

I just don't think he's a very good dual backfield guy in terms of utilizing the guys and rotating. Let's just go all in and run Cam Acres basically into the ground and let him walk as a free agent, which is fine by us for this year. It's kind of like a Josh Jacobs thing. Who knows if he really blows up like Jacobs, maybe they'll franchise them and keep them around a year and see what they see. But, you know, the cam makers that we liked coming out of Florida,

state. We're going to see that guy and he's going to be sneaky good in the passing game, I believe. There were a number of plays at Florida State where, you know, he took a checkdown a long, long way. But again, looking at all these data points that we had, you know, very, very encouraging. For example, per fantasy points of data, first 11 games, 0.54 yards before contact per carry. He was at 2.10 yards before contact per carry the last six games. So that was a massive increase. He had 0.17 forced miss tackles per carry, first 11, then the last 6.30.

so almost doubled that. And he also, of course, went from 3.3 YPC to 4.9 yards per carrier. So I saw all of it. And, you know, via the old eyeball test, all the data points to back it up. So Cam Acres, contractor as well. So let's go. And then let's go right to my guy, Rashad White. You know, I have to temper my expectations here because I've been a major stand of

Rashad White's dating back to the senior bowl. goal and pretty much got everything right with him last year. He did push Leonard Fornett off the roster. He caught 50 balls off the bench as a rookie. We all know Tom Brady is gone, but Leonard Fournett is gone as well. And, you know, the absurd number of targets that Leonard had. And certainly losing Tom Brady is massive for the checkdowns, especially. But, you know, maybe Baker may be.

field can not suck basically. And he is a guy who can get the ball to the running backs in the passing game. There's no doubt about it. Had some success with Nick Chubb and, of course, Kareem Hunt there in Cleveland. But, you know, the running game was terrible. Rashad was not very good in short yardage.

He was not great as a runner, but he was better than Fournette via the data points, via film study. And we're going to get a much better offensive line this year with Ryan Jens. in back. Hopefully the second round pick, Mock at right guard can really match the intensity that he's flashed here, senior bowl and all

that. You know, you'll worry a little bit about the level of competition, I guess, at North Dakota State, but hey, worked out pretty well for Dallas Goddard and at least for a little while there, Carson Wentz, not as much, Tray Lance so far. But I do think their blocking is going to be better. And, you know, he's going to be a major focal point of the offense. You know, I'm talking with my guy Greg Allman of Fox Sports now, but previously of the athletic recently on Sirius XM,

and I'm like, you know, is my imagination or is like Rashad emerging is like the face of the franchise right now? And he's like, yeah, yeah, they love him. So you see him on social media all over. He's a great guy. It's why he's my guy. Not a coincidence that he surprised,

a little bit. Very workman like, yeah, but he's working, dropping some weight and he's got some shake and bake for sure. He's actually does have an eye for the goal. At least he did in college, so maybe some better blocking. We can get some touchdowns. But look,

the guy's catching 50, 60 balls, for sure. Very durable thus far, knock on wood. So, yeah, love me, Rashad White. And I am very conservative at RB16. based on my projections, which still blows out,

blows it out of the water in terms of his ADP RB25 on underdog and in season long. So that's massive steel there. I know he's not sexy, but, you know, volume can be sexy. And receiving is very sexy. Some of the best hands I've ever seen, Rashad White. Got another running back here, a couple of more actually here on the Fantasy Points podcast, Hanson's Hintz, recording on May 10th, Wednesday evening, probably a lot later than I should be, by the way. So forgive me if I'm not as energetic as normal.

But we'll move on here and get to Brian Robinson of the Washington commander. I don't know what the deal is. RB 39 for season long, 34 is the early ADP on Underdog. We've got them at 26. I think it's pretty conservative. He's dropped some weight. I kept using the word Angular to describe him last year. Some really good data points on Robinson from Fantasy Points data.

Encouraging stuff that may not have been visible to the naked eye. And that's why we are rolling with Fantasy Points data. Let me find this real quick. Here it is. From weeks 1 through 9, Brian Robinson only a YPC of 3.3, but it rose to 4.2 from week 10 on. He also rose his mistackle forced per attempt rate from 0.10 to 0.14 in the second half of the season. And how about this one here? 71% of Brian Robinson's yards came after contact.

only Damien Pierce, Tony Pollard, and Derek Henry had a larger percentage of their yards come after contact among backs with at least 150 carries per fantasy points data. He'll need that skill to push that pile and drag defenders fall forward behind a subpar offensive line. But they hang in there at least. It's not a sieve in D.C. We do worry about the quarterback situation.

And I'm sure that's why Robinson's ADP is down where it is. But, you know, once again, for Sam Howell, it's similar to Baker. It's like, if you can just not suck. And by the way, if he does suck, they're going to play Jacoby Brissette, who is settled into a real nice place here as a rental player and a journeyman. It was very good last year. So that bodes well for Brian Robinson. Once again, very good value here early on.

Moving on to actually have one more running back quickly that I wanted to get to. Alexander Madison spoke with Matthew Coller Minnesota Viking a beat writer actually today and talked to him about five weeks ago and asked him the same question and he was maybe even a little stronger

on his opinion about Dalvin Cook and whether or not he's going to be on this week one roster and not looking good you know they certainly want to trade him it's a lot more advantageous for them to trade them and maybe there won't be a partner until training camp kicks off and somebody gets hurt. But, you know, Alexander Madison is probably a better than 50-50 shot right now on May 10th to open the season as the RB1. I'm going to say better than, yeah, definitely better than 50-50.

I might even go 65% right now. That's how confident I feel, you know, can't be that confident until a deal's done. but, you know, reading the tea leaves here, whether there's smoke, there's fire. So that means regardless, Madison is a value. Now, the sharps here on Underdog are on this a little bit. So he's not an incredible steel, but he will be for a lot of people out there, out there in Fantasyland. Let's move on to wide receivers.

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Call 18778-8-H-N-Y in Tennessee. 1-800-889-9-9-7-89 well hope you enjoy me stammering through that read there maybe a speck of entertainment there because maybe I should read these before I do them live but we'll do it live that's what I say well let's go to the wide receiver position here first edition of Hanson's hints we're running pretty long here already at 35 minutes so I'm going to speed it up a little bit we have plenty of time to break down these dudes here so I'm not going to go deep deep into it but the first receiver on my board and again it's hard to love love love the uh the studs the obvious guys here but i'm gonna go a little jerry judy we've got them i do uh early on here at

wide receiver 17 uh 8p at 22 for season long 23 on underdog and we we saw the chemistry there just quickly just it kind of came out of nowhere with russell wilson because early on it was it was Cortland Sutton, but, you know, bottom line, we've all been somewhat enamored with Judy from day one. He's been overwhelming, but, you know, it's not like the guy's been awful. He's averaging 14 plus yards of reception for the career. If he's ever going to do it, this is the year. They may be next year, but I'm going to bet on this year because, you know, 24 years old, these guys are already starting to get a little worn down with four years in the league. That's sad, but true. So I'll

on a breakout here for Mr. Judy. Moving on Drake London. I wasn't a big Drake London guy last year, but I did get some good intel from my boy, Roddy White, who watched him in practice for a week, came on the radio show on Sirius XM, and I used to work with Roddy,

so we're friends, and he gave me the skinny, and he was right, you know, about winning on the outside, you know, pretty consistently, bigger guy. I thought he showed well. And I know that Kyle Pitts was out for a lot of the stretch run there,

but I thought Desmond Ritter did a very good job getting him the ball. They did nothing at receiver otherwise other than draft, you know, what could be a glorified slot receiver in Bejan Robinson, but Drake London is going to get another eight targets a game

or more here in Atlanta, even if they run it 500 times with their running backs against. So like him there, we've got him at 8 or wide receiver 18, not too far off from the ADP, but he is 24, wide receiver 24 on underdog fantasy. Next up, and again, these aren't the big names because, you know, we honestly have a lot of the big names price near the markets, but I'm going to go back to the Gabe Davis well.

I know it didn't go amazingly well last year, but, you know, our guy Adam Kaplan told us in December that his source in the building told him that Gabe suffered a high ankle sprain very early in the season, and it really bothered him. He played 15 games. Remember, they missed the one game, so he only missed one game. So he played hurt. He lost some confidence, and I would explain the catch rate drop. But for as bad as the season as it was, it was still career bests in targets, receptions, yards, yards per reception.

he equaled his career high with seven touchdowns and he was only four percentage points off his catch rate from the year before. So when you look at it that way and head coach Joe McDermott confirmed all this recently in a press conference. When you consider the fact that they went Dalton Kincaid who's going to be a big slot receiver for them basically, he was a big winner. he retained his starting job and now he's in a contract year so my contention is if we can somehow figure out what percentage fall off was should be attributed to that injury and i think it's very fair to say that if he were healthier he would have hit my projection literally on the head because I had him for like, I think it was 55 catches for like eight, for like nine, 25 and like nine touchdowns or 10 touchdowns.

Maybe he wouldn't have gotten to 10. But he got seven. I mean, heck, the finale, the last game, he just missed like two touchdowns at the end of the game. But he was in the vicinity of scoring a lot. So basically, like I said, now that he was at Buzzkill, I'm back because like I said he clearly would have done everything I thought he would do. Now granted, that said, we did learn, I think that, you know, I probably overrated him a little bit.

He's not that. He's not a great number two. But, you know, I think I kind of also knew that. And you offset that with the fact that he's with Josh Frickin Allen. And that usually works. So I'm back on Gabe Davis. again, contract year, and he's more affordable this year at Y-Receiver-R-Receiver-40. I've got him at Y-R-R-R-R-R-R-R-R-Ger-R-R-G-R-R-G-R-G-R-R-Ber-Sever-R-Fever-Fever-Fever-Fever-Fever-Fon on Elijah, and we're proud of it, damn it. Wive-Rourceiver-Fety on Underdog Fantasy.

Very, very high on the Browns offense. I'm all in on Deshawn Watson as my top target, and I have been since like January. Of course, once they got Elijah Moore, that really put it over the top for me. You know, he's only going to be the number two, but we could even see if he bawled out the way he's capable by season's end.

He could kind of, they could pass the torch over to Elijah Moore, honestly, over the aging Amari Cooper. I also have on the list here, some lower end guys, John Mechie. I love John Mechie, one of my favorite, interviews of all time. He checks in. I think he's their best receiver at wide receiver 56. Looks like he's got a complete bill of health. I mean, he told me 15 months ago that he was good to go for camp July 2023. Of course, then the diagnosis came down. So that ACL that he suffered

at Alabama, I think is he is way back from that thing. So, you know, should be going to be a little rusty here, but should be in for, and he can play any receiver spot. too. You know, so he's their best receiver. And so therefore, you know, giving him some love. I'm going to put Jordan Addison on this list, too. I actually think all the rookies this year are being egregiously overvalued, not all, but most like Quentin Johnston and Jackson Smith and Jigwell, though I'll get a lot of clap, you know, I'll get a lot of brushback on that from the staff. But I think he's overvalued. But I don't think Addison is overvalued. In fact, I think he's a little undervalued and he's a plug-and-play guy in Minnesota. KJ. Osborne is just a guy.

He also dropped what should have been a fourth-down conversion on that final drive right before the fourth-down play where Kirkie threw it ahead of the sticks, which I forgot about until I watched it the other night while working here in the office. But anyway, Jordan Addison is going to be a plug-and-play guy, and they like them because he can line up in all three receiver spots. he'll need to be in the slot quite a bit to win because he's a very small guy but you know very good foot quickness and he's just got it you know what I mean doesn't test well but um this is going to work Addison teamed with Jeff Jefferson and of course you know Jefferson really seeing some exotic coverages out there last year and he has a marked man so I personally by the way I want to put Jamar Chase had won over Jefferson this year, just from momentum, because the momentum should be in Chase's favor and not really for Jefferson, but Jordan Addison will benefit, I believe,

from special attention to Justin Jefferson. And then last but not least, a couple of tight ends. The tight ends are also a little chalky. Two guys, a couple of other discrepancies, but the two guys who just... jumped right out when I looked under the hood. And one of them really, I couldn't believe how much my opinion changed of him from doing the projection and really looking deep into the team situation. It is Chiggy Akonkwo, who I really kind of, my initial run was a little crazy. He came into like tight end seven.

But, you know, we discussed it a little bit. We talked about how he might be utilized a little bit more with. some air yards and down the field a little bit more, so which could help his yard per reception number, but heard his catch total number. So I was thinking maybe a little bit more high volume, but we kind of split the difference. It still came in around 60 grabs and a tight end nine.

So he's in the top 12, 80p of 12, though. That actually surprised me. And then 14 on Underdog, maybe a little less upside there. I was a little surprised. though. So the markets are pretty savvy here on Chiqui Akonkwo, but we're going to be, well, we'll see. I mean, right now I want to be well ahead of the markets, but it is a little risky if they want to, you know, make a trade, or move Ryan's Han to handle perhaps or look at Will Levis late in the year. But I'm feeling it, though.

He's griffic. He's a little undersized, but, you know, very athletic guy, looked good last year. Real strong. So I'm feeling it. Chigia Conquo, the number one steel so far that I see this year in 23 at tight end. And last but not least, a fellow South Jersey guy, Jawan Johnson, who went to high school in the town that I went to college in in New Jersey, who is with Corey Clement, by the way. Shout out, Glassboro, New Jersey. Joanne Johnson, tight end 19 early on. I got his ass at 13 right there. I mean, we could argue he was a tight end one,

and they let the troutman go. Now, we did get the Foster Moreau signing today, or the news that he's back, which is a little weird. But we're not really counting on Foster Monroe. I mean, he wasn't that good anyway, honestly. No offense. Get well soon.

I hope all good things come to Foster Monroe, but not that great. Joanne Johnson, though, pretty damn great. And they're very high on him, per our sources there. And he's still ascending. So this could be, you know, like Pete Carmichael's Jimmy Graham here in New Orleans, and a pretty good quarterback here with Derek Carr. So there is a very early look at about 15 players who really jumped out at me as like, whoa, these are major steals.

The markets are going to be tightening up as we get warmer and warmer into the summer. But we'll have plenty of time to break down this upcoming campaign and attack it from a variety of angles. Now that the draft is in the rear view, I will be doing this podcast every single. week late in the week so look for it like on a Friday or Saturday I'll try to record him on like a Thursday we'll get Mr. Adam Kaplan in for the next one as well to go around the league with him get some insider nuggets so until then I'm going to sign off right now thank you for listening and subscribing stay subscribing tell your friends big stuff going on at fantasy points.com we'll catch you at next time