Fantasy Football Daily - Hard Count with Wes Huber: 2022 Breakouts & Faceplants in the AFC and NFC East

Episode Date: June 13, 2022

In the second episode of Wes Huber's new series, Hard Count, he touches on the AFC and NFC East, looking at possible breakout players and busts from each division. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hard count. I'm your host, Wes Huber. Breakouts and face plants. That's what we're going to look at today in the AFC and the NFC East. We're going to start with the Buffalo Bills. offense, if you know me, you know I love Gabriel Davis. I'm projecting a breakout this season from a guy who's already shown us quite a bit during his career. It says a lot about Buffalo's devotion to Davis that they only added Jamison Crowder, Tavon Austin, and fifth rounder Khalil Shakir

to their wide receiver rotation. All three project to work on the inside. It's basically the Stefan Diggs and Davis show on the perimeter. That's significant sense in sports. of nearly identical targeting rates, Josh Allen has targeted his perimeter options for 75% of touchdowns thrown to wide receivers last season. During the last six games, when Davis was heavily featured, outside wide receivers collected 10% more yardage over the expected. Davis leads all wide receivers with at least 68 receptions the last three seasons with an insane touchdown rate of 21%. Jumping over to the defensive side of the ball, we have Gregory Rousseau. And I'm also projecting a breakout for Rousseau.

We saw enough from Rousseau as a rookie to know his future is very bright. He averaged right around two quarterback pressures and two tackles with a low miss tackle rate, which was promising. Count on seeing a bump to his pressure rate and the four sacks, total sacks he managed last season, because the bills went out and signed Vaughn Miller, and he's going to be a significant boost to Rousseau's production. Miller visited opposing quarterbacks around four and a half times per game while collecting around two sacks for every three games last season. The 19 starts that Rousseau gave us last year are 12 more than from his entire collegiate career. You know, Buffalo really went out. They drafted him based off of his tools.

And it looks like it could be a hit because Miller's influence, as a mentor will be as important to Rousseau's development as Miller's presence will be on the attention of opposing O lines. Moving on to the Miami Dolphins on offense, the guy that is set for a breakout is Tua Tawa Tua, Tua is unable to throw the deep ball narrative is about to be debunked. Not to mention the one that Tua is just a bad quarterback. Miami masterfully acquired Tyreek Hill for 22 picks in the first, second, and two in the fourth, and then a 23-6th rounder. So they're only going to go into the 23-season losing that sixth-rounder,

which is just phenomenal for the prospects of adding more talent in the future. And they get a guy just an athletic specimen that is almost unlike nobody else in the NFL. How big will his addition be for Tago Vialoa? No QB used a higher rate of play action last season than Tua, and Hill generated the third most play action fantasy points per game, despite Patrick Mahomes only using play action at the 14th highest rate. It should also be mentioned that Jalen Waddle posted the second most play action, FPG, so Miami will have number two and number three on the list to go with the quarterback

that used it at the highest rate. The tape shows to it to be a very accurate passer to all three levels of the field. With Devante Parker plagued by injuries pretty much all of last season, after Waddle, Tagalog was forced to play with the rotation of Albert Wilson, Mack Hollins, Preston Williams, and Isaiah Ford. His revamped group, though, entering 22, will be Hill, Waddle, Cedric Wilson, and fourth-rounder, who I really like, Eric Azucama. Not to mention Mike Gassicki, who should also benefit from Hill's edition. On defense, I see a breakout season for Javon Holland.

It was big for Holland that Mike McDaniel retained Josh Boyer as his defensive coordinator, In turn, Steve Gregory was also retained and promoted to safety's coach. And they went out and they added Patrick Certain in February to be the defensive assistant. Holland's path to a breakout is highlighted by the same DC defensive coordinator that originally drafted him. His metrics certainly point us in that direction. As a rookie, Holland permitted the 16th fewest yards per covered snows. 19th lowest targeted passer rating and 15th lowest rate of deep completions, essentially 20 or more yards. It's looking really good in Miami.

If Holland takes another step, this defense can be nasty. So sticking with the AFCEs, we move on to the New England Patriots. So on offense, oddly enough, the dolphins traded Devante Parker to the Patriots. Devante Parker, he actually averaged the 19th most air yards per game last season, which is an eye-opener. But the 38th most air yards per target is more in line with the expectations. The major coverage weakness from Matt Jones's rookie season was in facing cover three. But the trade that landed Parker brought in one of the top 12 cover three wideouts in the game. Over the last three seasons across from cover three, Parker has generated the 15th most fantasy points per route, the 14th most yards per route run, the 29% and 29% of his yardage was gained on 22% of routes, not to mention the fact that his yards per target improves by 33%.

consider me unconvinced that Jones will miraculously transform into a deep passer. The arm strength issues are always going to be there, but they're going to be overcome by his elite accuracy. And that's just, that defines his game. But Jones, he desperately lacked a perimeter threat that could punish the most used scheme, cover three, across the entire NFL. Bill Belichick landed that guy in Parker. We could be in store for similar production. I mean, brace yourself here from Parker to his big 2019 season.

Parker can score touchdowns as well. So we're talking about a guy that's going to come in and be everything they thought they were getting when they brought in Nelson Agilor. But, you know, we know Aguilar is more of a deep guy. He's not a guy that's going to punish guys, punish teams underneath. And that's where Parker, he can mix that up. He can do both. He's not going to come in and be a Tyreech Hill level of an athlete, of course.

But that's not what Matt Jones needs. Mac Jones needs a consistent possession receiver. He gets that with Devonte Parker. It should help everybody on the offense. On defense, it's not so good. I have Malcolm Butler, along with a couple other guys here. ready to face plant in the 2022 season. Is Bill Belichick really going to attempt to replace J.C. Jackson and Stefan Gilmore

with a rotation of Malcolm Butler, Jonathan Jones, Terrence Mitchell, and Jalen Mills? Short of Sean Wade making a significant second year step up. Belichick removing the doghouse label from Jojouan Williams, which I doubt, or third-rounder Marcus Jones or fourth-rounder Jack Jones, turning in rookie of the year-level performances. New England's secondary could be in quite a bit of trouble here. Working in their favor will be the 16th easiest schedule, so right around average. It will not be to their advantage that Butler will be returning to the field after sitting out the 21 season due to a short-lived retirement. The last we saw Butler, he surrendered the 36 most yards per coverage snap among 89 qualified outside cornerbacks, the 33rd most fantasy points per covered snap, and 14th most fantasy points per game.

Not really the numbers you want to see from the guy that's likely to enter the year as your number one corner. Jones played the worst year of his career. Mitchell couldn't cut it with the Texans, who easily the worst secondary in the NFL. fell, and Mills's play fell off a cliff compared to his Philly days. We could never count out a Belichick miracle. Seriously, I mean, he's done it with a patchwork of a defense before. But this would easily be the most miraculous of his storied career if he manages to get this defense to excel with this level of secondary personnel. Let's move on to the general. Let's move on to the On offense, it's not going to surprise anyone to hear that the guy I have set for a breakout is Breece Hall.

Lost in the excitement of adding Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson, Bruce Hall, and Jeremy Rucker with their first five picks was the fact that the Jets didn't address the O line until the 11th pick. The NFL certainly didn't do New York any favors by lining out the sixth most difficult schedule for them. That said, they will have the easiest fantasy playoff schedule. That's great. That's great, especially for Breeze Hall. The Jets passed the ball at the fourth highest rate last year, but their O-line gave up the third-most quarterback pressures per game. Those two numbers are likely to be related, but it doesn't hide the fact. fact that this O line has some serious pass protection issues. It would seem that the success of the pass protection, maybe of the entire O line,

would depend on what is going to happen with left tackle Mackay Beckton. Don't forget, the guy ballooned up to over 400 pounds during the rehab of the MCL sprain that should not have kept him out for the whole season, but did. That said, the O line, even minus Bechtin, actually blocked for the run quite well last season. For all of those out there still banking on Michael Carter being fantasy relevant this year, I say good luck to you. It's not my flavor. Brice is not the type of running back that you take out of a game.

unless he needs a breather. We're talking about the type of skill set that Jonathan Taylor packs around, and Hall is even a superior receiver to J.T. On defense, are you ready to become acquainted with one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the NFL? DJ Reed Jr. His outstanding play has languished for two seasons. in a struggling Seattle secondary and defense in general against the past. But his play stood out like a sore thumb.

It was such a welcome sight to see them develop a guy, basically that came from obscurity, relatively speaking. He limited his coverage to the fourth fewest fantasy points per coverage snap, the fifth fewest yards per coverage. covered snap, gave up the fifth lowest rate of deep completions, and allowed the eighth lowest targeted passer rating. Paring him up with fourth overall pick sauce gardener is just disgusting. To think that Bryce Hall, their number one corner from last season, who's quite good himself, will be their third corner. Moving on to the NFCEs, we start with the Dallas Cowboys.

get ready for it. Jalen Tolbert is about to break out. The odds are stacked against Michael Gallup being ready for the start of the season. Don't take that the wrong way. I love Michael Gallup. I think he's going to bounce back from this injury. As long as we don't see another injury to the same knee, he's going to be fine and we're going to be, we're going to want him on our rosters. But James Washington did not do himself any favors by standing around in a walking boot during OTAs. He had better gain clearance for mandatory minicamp, or this one won't even be a contest. Dallas hit the jackpot with Jalen Tolbert as the 88th pick. A longtime Devi darling, Tolbert amassed 146 combined receptions just the last two seasons.

consider the fact that he averaged more fantasy points per target during his South Alabama career than Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jehan Dodson, Sky Moore, Christian Watson, and Trelaum Birx. Not to mention the fact that Dak Wilson will be the first quarterback talent he's ever played with. independent of Washington's recovery, Tolbert is going to force himself into the picture while Gallup is rehabilitating. It's going to get to a point that removing him from the lineup will be next to impossible. On defense, I'm actually projecting a breakout for Trayvon Diggs.

Wait, didn't Trayvon Diggs already have a breakout? season? Sure, in the sense that his name blew up. He got his name into a lot of households out there. Both of my kids know who he is, but they're pretty invested in the NFL. But still, for defensive players, they don't know as many. So, I mean, for me, that's a big deal. He really, he really blew up his brand last year. And we can also look at a breakout season from the standpoint that he was honored as a first-team all-pro, and he led the NFL and interceptions with 11 that are the most in the NFL since 1981. However, Diggs took more than his fair share of dangerous risks to acquire those

interceptions and his matching number of passes defensed. He ended the year with giving up the 10th most fantasy points per coverage snap, the second most yards per coverage snap and the 12 highest rate of deep completions. He's ranked in those three categories amongst some pretty bad corners, right? And you can bet that Dan Quinn and Al Harris, while they would never publicly admit it, are well aware of those struggles that have been working on identifying the causative factors throughout the offseason. Dallas was gifted with the 12th easiest schedule. That said, we will know by week five if Diggs has made the necessary adjustments

toward a true breakout season where we see them excel in all of the areas that the other top corners in the NFL are already doing. The Cowboys will face Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, and Matthew Stafford in three of their first five games. If we see Diggs beasting on those metrics through those five games, we are talking a major breakout ahead for Trayvon Dix. Let's move on to the New York Giants. On offense, the signing of Brian Daibble as their new head coach gave us all some instant information. Already rostering a solid defense, the Giants were set to become offensive oriented.

It also told us they would be utilizing 10 and 11. personnel at rates that will only be contended with by the Arizona Cardinals. I'm not holding my breath for Sterling Shepard's return from an ACL tear. It's going to take a while. The guy is just shy of 30. That place is Cadarius Tony, Kenny Goliday, Darius Slayton and the guy I'm projecting a breakout, Wondale Robinson, on the field together in 10, personnel and with those four competing for snaps in three wides. Tony will be on the field.

The dude is talented. What we saw last year in that Dallas game is something that you do not see very often at the NFL level. Gagaladay's contract will keep him on the field as well. You know, it was a terrible, it was a terrible choice by Goladay to sign with New York with Daniel Jones at quarterback. He's not a tight window guy. Kenny Goliday is a tight window receiver. So it wasn't a great matchup. Now, moving on, the fact that Joe Shone and and Daibald used their 43rd overall pick on Robinson, which was their first selection together with the Giants on a skill position offensive player. The fact that they use that

43rd overall pick on Robinson tells us he is going to be a big part of this offense. Recent rumblings that Slayton could be released could find some legs if he doesn't continue to be a team player with the knowledge that he's going to enter the season as the number four receiver.

Robinson created the second most fantasy points per route across from cover 1, the 14th most across from cover 3, and the 4th most against cover 6 among the rookie wide receiver class. Wondell won't get much help from Daniel Jones in the cover 3 department, but Danny Dimes has easily played his best ball across from cover 1 and cover 6. big things ahead for Wondell Robinson, whether it's with Daniel Jones or not. I think the Giants are going to go out and get one of the big quarterback names from the 23 class, and we're going to see some big things from, I think, all three of these receivers, minus Slate.

And I think he's out before next year. Staying in the offense this time, I hate to say it, but I'm calling for a face plant for Saquorn Barkley. with the addition of Evan Neal, Barclay's time with New York is running out. Short of going, I mean nuclear, right out of the gate, he's going to follow Jones out the door at years end. He scored outside the top 50 qualified running backs in fantasy points per touch, fantasy points per carry, and 36th in what we used to consider his specialty, fantasy points per route. Great. You're lining him up at wide receiver and on the outside. You know what?

You already were doing that last year. It's not big news. So don't get carried away with that. The fact that he, and it doesn't matter that he's not being used as much. When he is being used, he has not been as effective as the guy that we loved years ago. So even with all of the athleticism in the world, and we're talking about one of the most athletic running backs in the game, Sequin's elusiveness has seemingly evaporated. And the Giants are not going to be motivated to pay Barclay the type of money in his second contract that he'll want when he's still not fully recovered from that ACL tear. Let's move on to the Eagles. You know, Jalen hurts. He hasn't had a true number one during his first two NFL seasons.

That takes nothing away from DeVantz Smith. And I mean that. I see the kid as an excellent fantasy option. I drafted him in several, a ton of leagues. But his optimal place is as a number two wide out. He doesn't have the type of physicality or speed and athleticism to be a number one wideout. That doesn't mean he won't score like a number one wide out.

But in the language of the real NFL, he's best suited to a wide receiver two role. For those buying into a down season for A.J. Brown simply due to playing with hurts, the rest of us will happily benefit from picking up the pieces when you pass on him. AJB is the top five wideout guys and ladies, independent of quarterback play. He ranks 69th in rate of completions of 20 or more yards during his career. He's a volume dependent possession receiver, not to mention being the most physical wide receiver in the game. Now that they have a convincing reason to air it out, Philly is going to feed their new star player beyond what he ever saw with the Titans. We're going to see the Eagles actually

pass the ball more this year. And it's going to be, it's going to be for a good reason, not out of, desperation. On defense, again, just like in New England, there's a serious problem here in the secondary at a different position. Kvon Wallace, my face plant candidate here for Philadelphia. The Eagles, they made improvements in many areas through the AJB deal, free agency, and the draft. The one area they disappointingly ignored was at free safety. They will head into 22 with Wallace, 2019 6-rounder Marcus Epps, an undrafted free agent read Blankenship. Even if Wallace manages to play every snap, the 2024th rounder has only played

more than 30 snaps in four games in his entire career. And it's not like he's been that great during his short career with a 134.7 targeted passer rating last season that would have ranked dead last if it qualified. Heading into the season with such an unknown at such an important position is foolish, in my opinion. And there's not much that they're going to bring on the field if he flops. I mean, Marcus Saps has been pretty good, but not, again, not at the level that you want to see from your starting free safety for a team that plays a lot of zone.

that's bad. And we saw last season, they started using a lot more cover one, in my opinion, because of the safety play. It's not going to work. Neither of them. In a cover one, you're going to leave your corners James Bradbury and Darius Slay out to dry if the free safety doesn't know what he's doing or his play is just as poor. And in a zone, he's responsible for a huge chunk of the feet. They need him to be at a certain level, and Philadelphia doesn't know what level he is going to play at. Risky, risky, risky.

Let's move on to the Washington commanders on offense. Jahan Dotson is about to break out people. If you haven't been paying attention to OTA reports, fine. Allow me to break the news that Jehan Dotson has been unguardable, unstoppable. With Terry McLaurin working on a new contract with the commanders, Dotson's already established himself as the most trusted receiver for Carson Wins. Dotson will be the hands-down top receiver McLaren F1 has played with during his time in Washington. It just so happens that Wince has delivered the sixth most fantasy points per dropback

against cover two the last three years. And Dotson manufactured the seventh most fantasy points per route versus cover two during his Penn State career. We're set to see the many reasons. The commander selected Dotson in the first round and why his collegiate numbers could have been far better, if not for the inaccuracy of his. Sean Clifford. He's about to blow up. It may not, it's not going to be to the level of a number

one receiver, but it's definitely going to exceed everyone's expectations for a guy a lot of people didn't like coming into the draft process. So on defense, again, bad news this time in Washington. Cole Holcomb and Jammin Davis are about to face plant. Things are going to get brutal. The defense, I mean, if there are not major developmental steps seen from Holcomb and Davis, it's going to get really bad. So Holcomb, he appeared to be a baller on the rise with top five coverage metrics from the 20 season. But as quickly as he emerged, Holcomb already face-planted into obscurity after permitting the 23rd most fantasy points per covered snap, among 76 qualified linebackers, the 28th most yards per coverage snap,

the sixth most air yards per coverage snap, the 28th highest targeted passer rating, and the 22nd highest rate of deep completions. and Washington made zero moves during the off season to offset this imminent disaster. We saw them last year use multiple, three safeties on the field at once just because of the issues at linebacker. Now, they did spend the 19th overall pick in the 21 draft on Davis, but Davis was just as bad as a rookie. He ranked 29, 35th, 47, 30th, and 29th in those same category. I mean, get ready to fire up your tight ends across from the commanders this season.

Next week, we'll jump to different conferences, to different divisions in the NFL, and we'll work our way through every single team and the entirety of the NFL. Until then, I'll catch you next time. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join roster at fantasy points.com.